Pilot shortage 2021

[AOGspanner]

Pilot shortage, 27000 pilots needed by 2021 and not enough available

[redsnail]

Was that the recent announcement by CAE, a well known training provider? Now I wonder why they'd be saying that?

[Rt Hon Jim Hacker MP]

It seems that living in total denial (I'M NOT LISTENING!) is all the rage at the moment. Perhaps the management at CAE need a round of golf to clear their heads.

[Sam Ting Wong]

It's gonna be HUGE

[bluewhy]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1125/a3b96b1d_efb5_498b_a116_e4b63b1a4180_96c47dd7ada66a7f4a8ad1f ab3bf4f5ac22a90b5.jpg
Eurocontrol's view on the matter.

[VariablePitchP]

If you are a prospective CAE student then before reading their article fill a bathtub with half a tonne of salt, climb in and then read it.

[AOGspanner]

Information sources are wildly varied. Airlines are laying off and schools have seen increase in students, so what's actually going on where you are? Specifics, numbers.

Our Airline is hardly flying and yet no layoffs or plans to. And they have recruited pilots during the last 6 months and sent on training.

[KeyPilot]

Pilot shortage lol

[OutsideCAS]

Whilst it seems that the sources for these large recruitment forecasts are perhaps skewed, the vaccine is coming and by next year. And to think that the public by and large will not travel again would be equally skewed. Any airline surviving this will (next year IMHO) require a large recruitment drive to cope with the demand that will inevitably be needed and the large layoffs now will be assumed as a viable source to cover this. The problem? a good percentage will have taken early retirement, many will be loathed to return to such a volatile industry, having retrained and upskilled in other industries. The perception that the training industry has cadets clamouring is definitely not true despite the colourful advertising stating the time is now to invest in an fATPL, and understandably so as finance for such is not on offer from mum and dad, or banks. I would suggest the training providers will be the sector to suffer greater losses moving forward, and the LCC cadet-reliant business models to be coming to an end in any meaningful way that allows their (LCC) expansion at rates Pre-COVID. There will be a skilled pilot shortage but not at the levels forecast I would offer.

[dns]

a good percentage will have taken early retirement, many will be loathed to return to such a volatile industry, having retrained and upskilled in other industries.

I'm really curious as to the percentage of currently redundant pilots who will be actively seeking to get back into the industry in a couple of years...

[OutsideCAS]

Short term, maybe 50-60% from talks with many from varied operators. That may change of course in future years as the terms and conditions improve(?). If not, maybe less. It is an interesting topic dns I agree.

[PilotLZ]

From my own observations, roughly one in three redundant pilots will not or is unlikely to come back whenever hiring picks up. Those who have already earned their pension and are financially secure are discovering the beauty of finally having plenty of time and energy for themselves and their loved ones. Once one gets well into their 50s, lifestyle preferences tend to change a lot. People are no longer keen on being awake and working at silly o'clock or living in hotels for weeks on end. As for the younger lot, a good number of them use this an opportunity to permanently change careers. Particularly the ones who weren't quite happy with their job pre-COVID and were considering a career change way before the crisis. That's been their final trigger to act.

[Boeing 7E7]

From my own observations, roughly one in three redundant pilots will not or is unlikely to come back whenever hiring picks up..

One in three? How many redundant pilots have you observed?

[Chief Willy]

Utter rubbish. The european body of pilots is actually relatively young. There is no looming retirement wave in Europe (like there is in the USA). Having spanked £100k-ish on flight training, and having discovered first hand how little our experience is valued by HR/recruiters in other fields, those sadly made redundant are clamouring to get back into the cockpit in my experience. Only a tiny number will start again in other fields. Flying is the only way to make a half-decent living and to pay off astronomical training debts.

As for older pilots retiring early, very few can afford to do that and I have seem little evidence to suggest it. At BA only a handful took early retirement despite a VR package being offered.

CAE obviously want to keep spinning the pilot shortage myth as they stand to profit from all the training, that is their business. Where I work we have no recruitment plans whatsover on any time frame. There is no demand and no one knows just how long it will be until pilots are in demand again, but it will be measured
in years not months.

[MissChief]

Chief Willy is correct. Aside from the odd retiree, most typed pilots are biding their time and will return. Career opportunities have not opened up for pilots, for two simple reasons. Covid-19, and the inevitability that pilots will return to flying as soon as the opportunities present themselves. It may be a few months yet, but hopefully aviation will return next year.
Sadly T & C's will not be on a par with 2019/2020 figures, and probably never will be.

[guy_incognito]

I suggest people read and re-read Chief Willy's post. It is spot on.

The vast majority of redundant pilots will be waiting for the first opportunity to get back flying. Yes, they may not enjoy the job, they may look at the direction the industry is going in and wince, they may be looking at a 50%+ paycut compared to their last flying job in 2019, but they will accept any conditions going.

Unless you have relevant qualifications AND significant experience in another field, you shouldn't kid yourself that any HR/ recruitment person is going to be in the slightest bit interested by what you think you can offer. As much as pilots want to think differently, nobody cares about the "transferable skills" we like to kid ourselves that we have. Many will probably have already seen that recruitment is dominated by faceless, automated systems employing standardised online filters. It's highly likely that your application will be filtered out before it's even looked at by an actual person.

I actually think that there will be continued demand for "cadets" who will be unpaid, or will pay to fly. Why wouldn't the airlines continue to profit from the right hand seat? There may well be limited recruitment of experienced pilots with a relevant rating at the airlines who emerge from this crisis. It would be an extraordinary act of self delusion to think that the salaries offered will bear any comparison with those previously offered, and as mentioned above by a previous poster those terms and conditions are gone forever.

[OutsideCAS]

The vast majority of redundant pilots will be waiting for the first opportunity to get back flying. from general conversation, seemingly not this time. Many have actually used their redundancy packages to fund a new vocation, skill set. Building trade seems to feature heavily for some reason.

Yes, there will of course be Cadets that will slot in to the RHS for nothing, or next to. But enough in the interim to satisfy the bigger LCC, a blue and yellow one springs to mind - I think not. The numbers will not sustain future expansion plans in the short to medium term. The salaries for experienced or not will be dire for some time, agreed. This is what is heavily driving the thinking currently I would suggest.

[fastidious bob]

I think there could possibly be a shortage of experienced Captain in the next two years. The Middle Eastern carriers have made very deep Pilot cuts and I’m pretty sure once demand picks up, which it will, and covid is a distant memory these Middle Eastern carriers will be desperate for Pilots. I feel many won’t return due to retirement and the treatment they have received during the covid crisis. The only realistic way to entice pilots will be to pay astronomical amounts of money. This in my view will create a shortage of high hour Captains in Europe. It’s always supply and demand that dictates salaries, not HR.

[DontBeStupid]

Yes, always read who is saying the message, CAE, they arent going to call it like it is.

BALPA said over 1,000 experienced pilots unemployed currently in the UK and around 15,000 in Europe now. That is enough for a several years recruitment even a heavy demand if it does springs back.

What people havent yet realised is that big companies are getting rid of floors of their offices and indeed their whole offices, one major bank closed down an office for 2,700 people and made them all homeworkers!! As people can be home based saving company time and money, big studies in IT showing that home workers are more productive as dont waste time travelling and for those a bit older with families etc, they prefer it. Alan Sugar was complaining that people were working from home too much, now that Zoom, MS Teams working is normal, business travel will never be the same again, it has decreased for ever! There is not a need for a large amount of people to travel regularly for work, some business travel will happen but also people realise that Zoom etc can also be used for social gatherings so that is likely to decrease some leisure travel.

Save your money and do something else with your time, only once has their been an actual pilot shortage, it was during WW2!

[fastidious bob]

Sorry I disagree, and so does Amazon by the looks of it. If I was a betting man I’d put my money on Amazon all day long. All this ‘work from home’ is a fad.
https://www.thestreet.com/.amp/technology/amazon-amzn-stock-physical-office-space-coronavirus-virtual

Passenger numbers will be back to pre Covid levels within two years and it will double in size every 7 years like it has done since World war 2. New airlines will pop up all over the place. One start up airline has just bought some of BA’s 747’s during a pandemic. As for the ‘staycation’...a wet week in Bognor Regis or fly to Malaga for a fiver in the sun? I know which one I’d choose.😏

[PilotLZ]

Wholeheartedly agreed, fastidious bob. Right now, a life largely devoid of mobility and face-to-face contact isn't a matter of choice for most people. It's a rather unpleasant matter of necessity. But would all those people still think the same if COVID was no longer a factor? Mostly not, I think. Working from home, spending holidays at home and communicating with friends and family virtually from home quickly gets miserable AF. It's not a life anyone, apart from the most reclusive introvert, would wish on themselves.

[bafanguy]

I'm really curious as to the percentage of currently redundant pilots who will be actively seeking to get back into the industry in a couple of years...​​​


Good question. And further, what awaits those who haven't flown at all in a couple of years ? Will so many experienced pilots have gone non-current that airlines will be forced to deal with getting people current again or is non-currency going to be a fatal blow ?

Answers almost impossible to know.

[dns]

I'm seriously hoping, for everyone's sake that this "work from home" thing is a very short lived!

It may be fine for people who are already established in their work places and have a family, but it's absolutely catestrophic for people living alone or who are new to a job! Those random chats in the office kitchen or over a quick beer after work are vital to making relationships that can be depended upon when things go wrong.

[nickler]

and for those a bit older with families etc, they prefer it.

My office working friends with families hate it. They are often locked in their hobby room that is now an office wearing a neatly pressed withe shirt, a stylish tie, adidas sweatpants and sleepers.

[PilotLZ]

dns, further to the social and the learning elements (which are both very real - teaching a novice how to do a real-life job only by Zoom and shared screen is a lot harder than in person) there's also one more thing. Any task requiring collaboration, collective brainstorming and creativity is seriously impeded by the virtual environment. And that's not just my own observation. Many people, in aviation and otherwise, share that those "Eureka!" moments when a great new solution is born are a lot harder to come across in home office mode.

Going forward, I think that the optimal solution would be to cap remote working vacancies to a certain percentage (not more than 30%, I think) and assign them with priority to those who have a specific, substantial reason to work from home (and are willing to do so, of course). Team members in poor health, pregnant women, parents taking care of small kids, people giving care to ill family members should be assigned a remote working vacancy with priority over those who do not face any such special circumstances. That sounds like an optimal way to keep productivity high, office-dependent local businesses running and people happy.

[FMS82]

You all seem to be mixing up two different things: the phenomenon of people (who live close to their office anyway) being forced to work from their basement/attic/hobbyroom vs. the vastly reduced demand international travel for business purposes.

Once this has all (hopefully) blown over, some elements of the working from home fad will stick as people like to have a choice. However, I agree with you lot that it is is essential that people are physically together for all the reasons you have mentioned. (starting up new colleagues, the famous coffee machine chats, the human need of feeling part of a group/team, etc, etc). Unfortunately, everybody returning to their office desks has zero impact on air travel, as those people will get back into their cars, busses, MRT's or whatever transport mode they were used to in the morning pre-COVID.

As for international air travel for business purposes; sorry to burst your bubble, but this has changed permanently. I work in an environment where I negotiate infrastructure contracts in the energy industry (I sell powerplants). Pre-COVID, everybody in my company, as well as our clients/suppliers, including all of the involved law firms agreed we had to meet face to face. And so we did; frequently and on high yield tickets (the seats close to the pointy end where you sit, you know - the ones that make the money for the airline), jetting between continents at least a couple of times a month. We all had the shiny frequent flyer cards to prove it. However, despite COVID, we had to keep stuff moving remotely and honestly - it works. It's like somebody switched the lights on and we can see we were doing it wrong all along. We have a laugh about it, and joke how much extra quality time at home and good night rests we have gained, and virtually everybody agrees this is a better lifestyle. We still have to travel to meet new clients every once in a while, but even that is rapidly diminishing as conferences and other events go virtual at a fraction of the original cost.

Sure, leisure travel will come back (I can't wait!), but business? A fraction of what it used to be... And even if we wanted to get back to our previous way of doing things, the travel budgets for 2021 and 2022 have -unfortunately for you guys- been slashed by management (rightfully so), and they are not coming back.

Aviation will have it's place; but I encourage everyone to get realistic about a full recovery.

[TLDNMCL]

FMS82 - Spot on.

[fastidious bob]

That’s why Zooms share price tanked nearly 20% the second a vaccine was announced. Business travel will recover. Eventually.

Funny how all the Schadenfreuders come out of the woodwork during an aviation crisis. FMS82 I have read many of your posts on pprune telling Pilots the glory days are over. I find it funny that people who are not even in the aviation industry feel compelled to jump onto a Pilot forum and spread their doom and gloom.🙄 Maybe you should be on here instead of Pprune https://forum.all-energy.co.uk/

[Bealzebub]

27,000 pilots needed worldwide in 2021 is quite close to CAE’s projection of 264,000 pilots needed worldwide over the next 10 years!

Sounds wonderful until you do the maths. Now I appreciate there are a lot of small nations and in aviation demand terms quite insignificant, but that is balanced by some very large and high demand countries. There are 195 countries in the world.

264,000 divided by 520 (weeks in 10 years) brings that number down to 507.
Divide that 507 by 195 countries and the number comes down to 2.6

Obviously that number needs proportionality weighting for each countries realistic demand, however Two and a half pilots a week per country doesn’t sound quite as exciting, I am guessing that’s why they chose the figure they did?

[stoneangel]

OutsideCAS

A lot here want to reassure themselves, but don't take your dreams for a reality. Vaccin is not here yet, and virus is changing...
airlines won't hire in the next few years, any wannabes. Get new skills and stop believing BS from medias. Luck though

[wiggy]

All IMVHO

If there's a successful vaccination program, (and that includes international recognition of such a vaccination):

Leisure travel will return fairly quickly, business travel not quite as quick, and perhaps never in the volume it was pre-Covid, which has implications for pilot recruitment.

So those who have a dream of soaring like a bird will at least be in with a shot of getting up at o'dark thirty to go off and fly an ILS into somewhere in the next 5-10 years...

The 100 k question however for those that are more financially driven and/or who see all this as an "investment" need to ask themselves is how long will it take T&Cs to recover to anything like pre-Covid levels...by that I mean pay, rostering, for long haul operators time of down route, quality of facilities down route....

..Because as someone posted on a parallel thread the shine does wear off and bills always need to be paid...

[arrowcapitan]

not to mention conditions will be very bad post covid 19 .....

[ShotOne]

“conditions very bad post Covid...”. Yes. Salaries back in many cases to what they were decades ago...For those “lucky” few who find any kind of flying job.

[Bueno Hombre]

dns

Yes, people living alone don't have the distractions of a nagging wife or screaming kids, so they can devote more time thought and energy to the job. Significantly more pay for them, only them, could defuse the negative thoughts that you mention and could be very cost effective in terms of superior productivity.

[Bealzebub]

ShotOne

In many cases the salaries actually were better decades ago. I still have the wage slips to prove it!

[FMS82]

fastidious bob

Thanks for the feedback, good reminder to focus on more productive pastimes.

I'll have a look at that other forum, thanks.
Best of luck to all.

PS: I count 2 posts on the topic. No schadenfreude by the way, plenty of people close to me hit by this...

[Hawker400]

People are apparently confused between working from home and traveling for business. The former will change as covid19 passes, the latter will be a fraction of what it used to be. Permanently.

Do you really think those 9.99€ tickets purchased 7 months in advance keep the airline afloat? Nah, it's the last minute business flyers buying premium.

Any recent grad or in-training student that hasn't seriously considered changing careers at this point is about to have a tough wake up call of how cyclical this industry is and how low it goes during the bad times. You don't want to be caught on the next downturn (implying there is an upswing after all this) finding out that literally no one cares about flying experience outside of well... flying.

[Climb150]

You only have to look back at 2008 to see a "death of business travel" prediction. This of course didn't happen and business travel will be back again with time.

It's difficult to convince people to sign a million dollar contract based on a few zoom meetings.

[PilotLZ]

And what about 9/11? That was also predicted to be the end of ALL mass air travel, not just business travel. Lots of experts suggested that people would be so scared of the prospect of their plane becoming a weapon that they would change behavioural patterns in favour of driving. Some were even making educated guesses on the number of surplus road accidents to occur as a result of that shift from flying to driving.

In the end of the day, people remain people, not biorobots programmed into performing a set of instructions over and over again. And the latter is precisely what cancelling all meetings forever looks like. Satisfaction and productivity in a job as a laptop operator is a lot lower than in one where you actually go to places, meet people and your brain is far more stimulated then in the same room behind the same screen day in and day out. Not to mention that business travel isn't only about meetings. In Europe, a massive number of families live in separation because their members work in different countries. Those are people who fly literally every weekend - because that's the only way they have to keep their job AND their family. Movement of skilled manual workers will also not stop being a thing. Even during the April lockdown there were flights with construction personnel, crop harvesters, ship crews and all sorts of other working people who need to be physically present at their place of work. So, while the premium cabin close to the pointy end of the plane will likely no longer be there on most short-haul routes, volumes will still remain decent enough to eventually give jobs to those who want them badly enough and are ready to do whatever it takes to get there.

[Flying Clog]

Blimey, really? 9/11 and GFC?

I'll raise you. By a multiple of 50x at least, and give you our gift from China.

[Ryanairrecruitment]

couldn't agree more, i much prefer being in an office environment amongst peers.

[Beaker_]

I wonder how many pilots have found work in the private jet industry and if any expansion there is to stay or expand further? For those passengers that can afford to travel on a private jet, are they really going to want to go back to scheduled flights and busy airports?

[Sam Ting Wong]

I know none of you will follow my advice, but I will say it neverthess.

Run as fast you can. This industry is done. It ain't worth it, the money is gone, the T&C will get worse and worse.

The job is boring like hell. Shift work destroys your health, your soul and your family life. You will stay in mediocre hotels, work like a slave and the automation will kerp you going like a patient in a coma on life support. The glamour of long haul is all but a distant memory. Productivity pay will be the standard globally, and you will compete with labor from second and third world countries.

If you are young enough, go back to Uni and aim at a career with a better future and a more attractive lifestyle.

All pilots who lost their jobs will return. They don't have alternatives apart from driving an Uber.

Greetings from Asia

[Doctor Cruces]

I'll believe there's a pilot shortage AFTER all the guys and gals laid off this year have got jobs again.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Pilot shortage is a carrot dangling in front of us for as long as I can remember ( 25 years in the industry now).

[Nick 1]

“ There is a light at the end of the tunnel “.........was a train .

[JP73]

There is no shortage when there is over ten thousand pilots all with jet hours unemployed in Europe alone. Until they all are all employed by airlines cadets out of flight school with no jet hours will struggle badly to find anything. It could take up to five years or maybe more before all these pilots are hired by airlines and then maybe airlines will start to consider more cadets. Don't believe this marketing nonsense that there is a shortage of pilots. Not even 2019 had a pilot shortage.

No I believe you are wrong. Specially low cost airlines don't care about the unemployed F/O's with experience. They want cadets because they can make money out of them making them pay for training and typerating. It's a business model....

[PilotLZ]

JP73, I largely second what you say. There seems to be a middle ground for the FOs which is when they are already not cadets, but nowhere near command yet. And some airlines seem to leave those guys out for the aforementioned reasons. Of course, not always, as you do need senior FOs to run flight operations properly (for example, who's going to fly with the junior Captains if all FOs are cadets?). But every now and again there are such episodes, especially with airlines who have a vested interest in selling their candidates certain type rating courses.

[Flyit Pointit Sortit]

Ok,

I’m a captain in a LCC and in the UK we had a huge redundancy program recently, that was mitigated by the vast majority of pilots going part time. 2000 pilots working 50%. How long before we’re all offered full time positions again? Only then will we start recruiting....how long will that be? well I wouldn’t be asking a salesmen selling their wares.

Stay clear!

[highfive]

Historically, global crisis have hit the pilot community hard. I remember the first gulf war, AirEurope going bust and the end of several smaller uk airlines. Then, you went on the dole, spent toms of savings keeping current , and waited , in some cases, several years for the pilot job market to pick up.

Now , there are relatively few layoffs in the UK. Pilots are grounded, on decent salaries without much hardship. Companies are even keeping licences current for those affected, at no cost to the employee. Life is good . Even BA cannot go bust these days, which always happened previously.

[AdrianShaftsworthy]

‘Even BA cannot go bust these days, which always happened’

Que?!

[Abdulmalik]

a lot of negative people up here : )

[wiggy]

Now , there are relatively few layoffs in the UK. Pilots are grounded, on decent salaries without much hardship. Companies are even keeping licences current for those affected, at no cost to the employee. Life is good .
Relatively yes, but it's still several hundred laid off - as in gone- from BA alone, plus several hundred others their pushed into a holding pool of sorts (CRS), and that's just from version 1.0 of the survival plan..

Like Adrian I am however perplexed by your comment that:

Even BA cannot go bust these days, which always happened previously.

[parkfell]

a lot of negative people up here : )

Don’t stop after your first sentence. Let us know why the contributors have got it wrong.

It is probably correct to say that a clearer picture (revised positively?) will emerge in Q2 2021 once the C-19 vaccines have hopefully been effective.

[PilotLZ]

Agreed. Some sort of draft timeline for the time being could be:

Now - hit the theoretical knowledge books, with the view of passing the PPL ground exams by the end of Q2 2021. Closer to that time, we'll have a somewhat better idea of whether we have any realistic chance of beating the dreaded lurgy sometime soon. If things start getting somewhat better than dire, get your medical at some point and do the practical (i.e. flying) part of the PPL next summer.

Q4 2021 - revise once again where we stand and have some thoughts about how to continue. If you're still set on doing it, find some cheap C150 and slowly start your hour building. I would say that 5-7 hours per month split into 2-3 flying days should be fine. This way, you won't be putting huge amounts of money into something fairly uncertain and you'll still be current and skilled. At some point during the winter, get your night rating maybe.

Mid-2022 - if it all looks on track to normal life, book your ATPL ground school. No need to book any exams until well into 2023. Whenever you do, leave out the Communications papers last. They are dead easy and can be left as a final session to protract your time line for IR if need be.

Late 2023/early 2024 - consider finalising the exams and the SEP IR/CPL.

Whenever jobs become available in considerable numbers - MEP, ME IR, MCC, JOC.

Conservative? For sure. But that's the safe bet as things stand now.

[Markos.]

Balpa or CAE (https://massivetosser.********.com/2020/11/balpa-or-cae-whos-right-and-what-should.html?m=1)

Who is Right?BALPA or CAE?

[wiggy]

Serious question? Answer is we'll find out eventually but at the moment nobody knows...

[parkfell]

If I went down to the bookies, I would put £10 on BALPA being closer to the truth.

Disclosure: I am a BALPA member. I did my IRT with OATS four decades ago, as a ‘self improver’ on the 700 hour route under CAP54

[PAXboy]

Whilst I agree that face to face can never be beaten (I am currently meeting my clients over the phone and Zoom/Skype) we cannot guess that all will return. Not least because, after a major upset - it never does.

Firstly a simple example from another industry: In 1991 I was working in the telecomms consulting world (started in 1977) and had done my fair share of biz travel. The daily rate being paid for contracts collapsed as the recession took hold. It took ten years for the daily rate to get back to what it was - meanwhile inflation had continued.

Secondly: It is not possible to compare the fall out of Covid19 with any previous recession. 2008 had a specific starting point and that was clearly understood. Covid started with, and continues to have, many unknowns. A recession caused by financial means alone is a familiar pattern, I have lived and worked through four of them. But a recession caused by a pandemic is unknown in living memory. Further, the financial skyline had not seen any significant reform after 2008, so all the instabilities of 2008 mostly remain. Then add Covid19 ...

My guess is that the glory days of flying will take a long time to return. If there are fewer Biz pax then prices for leisure will rise and that will flatten demand also amongst main line carriers. Guess by all means - but nobody knows how this will turn out.

[SignalSquare]

If I had my time again, I would not chose aviation.
I would be a vet or architect.
But then I would not have met my lovely wife 54 years ago!

[wiggy]

It's not even a debate. BALPA have hit the nail on the head.

Just for the avoidance of doubt - despite the wording of my response to Markos I have no doubt that BALPA are being much much more realistic than CAE

(Disclaimer: I'm also a BALPA member who has witnessed the carnage, including redundancies, this has caused at a major airline).

[Meester proach]

Last proper pilot shortage was 1987.
a marmoset with a cpl would have got a DEC then

[hec7or]

no, that’s not true at all, said monkey would have required an ATPL for a DEC

[parkfell]

Or a SCPL if the MTOW did not exceed 20MT.
900 hours as oppose to 1500 hours experience necessary.
Last issue date by UK CAA 3 December 1989. Valid for 5 years.

[aussiefarmer]

I always thought the "imminent pilot shortage" doomsday-predictions-that-never-really-materialize were pretty much orchestrated by manufacturers and airlines alike to have access to cheap labour.
I still think the same. BUT:

Since we can pretty much discount there WILL at least be 1 efficient vaccine, let's go with the 2024 "return to 2019 levels" scenario in terms of worldwide pax numbers. I believe markets such as european and US domestic short-haul will recover quicker though (summer 2022) despite not overly favorable macro conditions. Capacity will be there perhaps revenue will take a bit longer. Everyone wants to gain market share.

If most of the VLAs A380s, B747s and some of the older B777s etc. are decommissioned, it means to match the number of travelers you need roughly double the airframes (B787/A321XLR etc) or at least 1.5 the airplanes.

Assuming that is true that there was a relative shortage of EXPERIENCED flight deck crew in 2019, that means unless they all of the sudden go single pilot there will necessarily be an experienced airline pilot shortage between 2022 and 2023. Remember that it takes years to reach the necessary experience to become a Commander even a senior first officer and particularly when people are flying once a month these days they are not really accumulating experience. Also remember that people keep retiring (confinement does not stop aging) and fresh cadets out of school are not building meaningful hours.

Unfortunately, in Europe, I'm afraid most pilots will not manage to find alternative and successful careers outside aviation unless they had a previous education and experience and will pretty much be forced to return to flying.

That's how I see it.

[PilotLZ]

While it's certainly true that recruitment for European, USA or whatever regional short-haul will start first, I see it as a case of mass exodus of long-haul pilots towards short-haul for the sake of returning to flying. In a situation where jobs are few and far between, a firm A320 job right now is way, way better than the possibility of an A350 job in another 1-2 years (spent doing what?). Hence, the true shortage of pilots with relevant experience will only start when long-haul picks up.

[Hogos]

We now exactly the situation, and it's useless to add anything else.
Just a little consideration:
When the market picks up again, (maybe a day with a vaccine, with less restrictions / quarantines / lockdowns), the demand will require, of necessity, airplanes and crews.
How can an airline recover without flying ?
This will be gradually of course.
The today's leading low-cost companies are trying to conquer the globe, by expanding, even with empty planes, as an investment for the future, opening new bases and routes.
This strategy is definitely based on recovering earlier and better than the competitors, but in order to actualize it, again, pilots will be needed; so I assume we would not need to wait the "peak" again.
I'm absolutely not saying that there will be a shortage soon, but of course at least a gradual redistribution sooner than 2024, I guess.

[olster]

Not a good time to learn to fly except for recreation. The market will return but it will take time. There is a green agenda at the heart of government. The airlines are the sacrificial lambs for this. The Ryanair / easy travel explosion in Europe has meant that access to the desirable hot spots in Europe is available to all and not just the apparent elite. The weak and ineffectual Boris is influenced by his girlfriend who has climate change at the top of the pile post covid. The airlines and air travel are the targets for all sorts of unscientific reasons. The lack of support and the continued empty airports back this up. Consequently and unfortunately it is unlikely that there will be normal pilot opportunities for some time. However despite the gloomy predictions I do believe that air travel will return at some point in the future to relative normality. There is certainly no foreseeable pilot shortage.

[Meester proach]

no, that’s not true at all, said monkey would have required an ATPL for a DEC

Valid point , well spotted !