It’s looking likely Icelands volcano is about to erupt again

[NutLoose]

It’s the one that caused all the 2011 groundings :(

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/icelands-most-active-volcano-may-be-about-to-erupt-as-scientists-record-increased-seismic-activity-142723911.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALpXnu6EIBK7ncKwKAeqqiekCn101JWswgL9Vv nk9ob9ABlmvQhR34fm__fE-zGZLkN5TCKPzyMrwDGVIUEA0x4N94yMDM_uhFwedVJnHcZb18BJskoy6l_ij a8NLoISOO1McOqB3Z3_lI4PE3rHfXVzCAFM_O4cYnrN3mfdBFI0

[KingAir1978]

Yeah, sure... Go ahead, bring it on. Could this year get ANY worse? (I typed it ironically, so I think we should be ok...)

:*

[topgas]

2010, methinks

(edit - thank you, TS, I’d forgotten about the 2011 one)

[the_stranger]

Nope, there were two volcanos, the one in 2010 disrupted all European flights (>100.000) and one in 2011 which mostly just disrupted icelandic flights (<1000).

The one to blow now (according the article) is the second one, so hopefully the impact is minor.

[FunFlyin]

Depends which way the wind is blowing.

But in truth, better to blow now that say next year when green shoots are showing

[switch_on_lofty]

Oh no it might disrupt air travel.

[Flying Hi]

Yahoo News - well it must be true then.
Where does it say its l'ikely' or is that just sad click bait? Its gone from Green to Yellow - hardly imminent.
The volcano MAY erupt - (but then again, it may not).

[Feathers McGraw]

the_stranger

The ones to worry about are Katla and Laki, if one of them has a major eruption then all sorts of problems happen. A previous Laki eruption wiped out European crop production for several years in the 1780s and began the unrest that culminated in the French revolution. All previous eruptions of Eyjafjallajokull in the last millenium have preceded a Katla eruption by some years, with tremors being measured under Katla from 2010 onwards and continuing up to the present.

[Addlepate]

From the Icelandic Met Office, who are responsible for monitoring volcanic activity:

The seismicity during the past month has been above average
Geothermal activity has increased over the past months with clear signs of deepening cauldrons in several places around the caldera
The surface deformation has exceeded the level it was at prior to the 2011 eruption
Magmatic gases were measured in the geothermal emissions this summer.

"Multiple datasets now indicate that Grímsvötn volcano has reached a level of unrest, comparable to that observed prior to historic eruptions."

True, any volcano might or might not erupt; increased activity in Reykjanes now seems to be subsiding.These are all strong indicators though.

[Nil by mouth]

It’s the one that caused all the 2011 groundings :(

Covid-19 trumps any volcano for groundings!

[Klauss]

Hi,
now, it´s clear that volcanos erupt now and then. That's their job.
Has aviation learned anything, are we better prepared in 2020 then we were 2009, befor things started to get interesting ?

[andrasz]

@Klauss,

Aviation was already prepared in 2010, the blanket rule grounding was decided by clueless officials and politicians who wished to be absolved of any blame whatsoever. Aviation could have continued happily with some dynamic airspace restrictions, as they do with impunity in many areas of the world where volcanic eruptions are an everyday event. The reaction was not all that dissimilar to how the Covid situation is being handled...

The fundamental problem in all these cases is that there is a knee-jerk reaction to demonstrate that something is being done to protect the public, and reversing such decisions is very difficult since it usually involves an admission that it was unnecessary in the first place, combined with the courage to say that nothing further will happen (and the risk of being blamed if something does happen).

[lomapaseo]

@andraz

Correct !!

we live in a world of managed risks. We prefer to not bury our heads in the sand feeling we have licked the risk. It's time we spend managing risks with the least impact on our livelihood that makes the world turn.

So a note to all, address the risk with balance among all other tasks

We do have a response for volcanic eruptions in aviation so this board might spend some time discussing options that allows the least impact to our livelihood.

[Dan Winterland]

2010: OMG!
2020: Whatever!

[Ranger One]

Feathers McGraw

There's a fairly large level of misunderstanding around this stuff - I know, I have a background in geology.

Katla always has a fair amount of tremor - but the devil is in the detail. Pretty much all the tremor in Katla is very shallow - less than 1km deep. It has a very active hydrothermal system - geysers and hot springs etc under the ice cap - and that's where the tremor is coming from, harmless hydrothermal activity. There's no particular indication it's close to an eruption.

Laki wasn't a volcano in itself; the Laki eruption was a very large fissure eruption from the Grimsvotn volcano. It does those sometimes, as do Katla and Bardarbunga, but many hundreds of years apart. Grimsvotn is pretty close to an eruption right now, it could come in weeks or months - but, since the last Grimsvotn eruption in 2011 was very large, the next one is likely to be small.

Then there's Hekla, the wild card - it's pretty unique, it generally erupts with virtually no warning signs, and can do at any time. Its eruptions are initially very violent, but tend to calm down quickly after a few hours into relatively harmless lava flows.

(Eyjafjallajokull, the one that caused chaos in 2010, is now safely back to sleep and likely won't wake up for another couple of hundred years)

[TURIN]

andrasz

No, the blanket rule was based on previous events (well documented) of aircraft engine flameouts. But of course, I'm sure, you would be the first to support the decision to keep aircraft flying when there's two or three smoking holes in the ground.
We were grounded for a week or so, we got back to normal quite quickly and, as far as I know, nobody died. Result.

[andrasz]

TURIN I'm sorry, but your comment presents exactly the same ignorance that prompted the knee-jerk reaction. The two well known cases were both the result of aircraft flying into a dense eruption cloud in the close vicinity of a volcano in IMC. It can be compared to inadvertantly flying into a CNB, and you don't shut down all the airspace over a continent just because a few scattered thunderstorms are forecasted for the afternoon.

Yes, volcanic ash is damaging to jet engines, just like sand from sandstorms (just ask the engine shop at DXB...), but in the widely dispersed concentrations experienced during the lockdown it was purely an economic issue rather than a safety one. Had the lockdown not happened, there would likely have been more engines off the wing sooner than planned, but that is a risk each airline would have been perfectly capable of deciding for and managing themselves. Save for a few denser patches of ash floating on occasion over Scotland and Scandinavia (which were perfectly trackable and constantly monitored by the respective met offices) the rest of the continent was perfectly safe, the airspace closure was nothing more than mass hysteria.

[sleeper]

The large airspace closure was due to computer prediction of were and how large the ash cloud would be. Even when it was apparent on the following clear sky days that in the predicted regions no ash was actually observed, no european government dared to open airspace and let professional pilots do their job. As a result a lot of crew and passengers were stranded all over the world, me included.

In the rest of the world, South America, Indonesia, when a vulcano erupts there is an ashtam and airlines take appropiate action. Only airspace close to the vulcano is closed. Again, I've been there.

So hopefully next time Europe acts more sensibly when an Iceland vulcano erupts.

[lomapaseo]

A note about knee jerks. Don't ask a manufacturer if it's safe to fly in ash.They can usually only cite certified margins and I'm not aware of a declared certification of amounts, consitentcy, time and operating condition in any regulation.

The manufacturers however do have a more complete understanding of how to avoid and or mitigate operation should you find yourself in ash. The idea is to provide for safe flight and landing and not necessarily to address all wear and tear.

Read and understand your FCOM before attempting flight in unknown ash conditions

Do depend on the accomplishment of world wide ash tracking.against probable densities and altitudes and avoid the same as weather.

From and engine standpoint highpower (turbine temp) is bad when known in a cloud with symptoms

[Feathers McGraw]

Ranger One

Thanks for the explanation. You clearly are better versed in this that I am. Perhaps you would consider adding something to the Wikipedia entry on this aspect of the the Iceland volcanic systems.

Much appreciated information in any case.

[andrasz]

A note about knee jerks. Don't ask a manufacturer if it's safe to fly in ash...

A corollary to that: never ask "is it safe to..." from any regulator or official of authority, because the easiest answer is no, absolving said official from any blame whatsoever if something should go wrong, irrespective of any causal effect. The correct way to ask is "what is the acceptable limit to...", forcing the regulator to at least provide some reasoning.