The Death of British Aviation

[MissChief]

Apologies for the dramatic title, but it may not be much of an exaggeration.

The media have featured nothing but doom pronouncements on layoffs and airline closures.

Why has there been zero support for our critical industry from either the Transport Minister, Grant Shapps, or his junior underling the Aviation Minister, Kelly Tolhurst?

More importantly, what can we take as a professional group to help stop the rot before it is too late? I fear many pilots, engineers, crew, and office staff will never work for an airline again. This is a tragedy.

[Ancient Observer]

You raise an interesting point.
Just when folk in Aviation should be working together in the UK to lobby Government, the ability of people to fight each other knows no bounds!
For instance, BA's BALPA reps are having a battle between the long serving pilots and the shorter service ones. BA's BASSA crew branch are battling with BA's MF crew branch, and their overall TU is trying to do away with their jobs completely by asking the Government to take away BA's slots - which will go to Foreign airlines.

No, Aviation just cannot work together for the greater good.

Personal self interest Rules OK!!!

[Contact Approach]

Interesting behaviour given the industries penchant for CRM & Human Factors.

[Pistonprop]

AO, you might want to call it "self interest" but perhaps in these times it's "self survival".

[Busdriver01]

BoJo and his lot are far too scared to be seen to support what has become the scapegoat for all environmental criticism.

[Mooneyboy]

If this happened 10 or 20 years ago there would have been far more help.

However this is now the age of XR, Twitter and Greta. What party would want to upset the keyboard warriors by financially supporting the perceived demonic industry of the airline industry?

This unfortunately is a perfect storm for some.

[Count von Altibar]

That's very true the environmental lobby has definitely played a role in suffocating the chances of large amounts of aid to the UK aviation sector.

[esscee]

I wonder if the environment lobby will start to get even more upset when there are very few or no aircraft around when They want to go on holiday?

[Momoe]

Infighting isn't going to help anyone; BALPA et al need to present a coherent case to government for support to those folk who have been impacted financially.
​​​​​​The majority of holidays are taken in Europe/North Africa, LCC 's are better placed to respond to demand. IMO, if you want to go on holiday, flights will be there.
Aviation isn't alone in taking a massive hit, this is unprecedented and across the board; aviation will recover although we're talking years, not months.
Think about the consequences for commercial and retail property, I believe that these will take infinitely longer to recover, probably never reaching previous levels.
Might also want to thinks about pension funds exposure to Covid19 impacted funds

[olster]

I got a month ban for pointing out that our pathetic politicians are in thrall to climate change activists and in particular the teenage wunderkid from Sweden. The bonkers reality we now find ourselves in as professional pilots is indeed to witness the decline of our incredible industry. Political correctness is lapped up by generally spineless politicians and a supine media. The vast majority of them and the aforementioned climate change warriors are in the main not educated scientifically and generally have zero understanding of scientific or engineering principles. I include the graduates from Oxbridge etc. I doubt whether most of them could explain the inner workings of the internal combustion engine. Sometimes you get the same stuff here as the professional pilot part of pprune appears to be disappearing at great speed. It’s a real shame.

[ericsson16]

My tuppence worth is the General public's arse has collapsed,they have swallowed this Covid garbage hook line and sinker.Over 200 countries have this virus installed in their territory,some idiots think that's containment, and we are still having travel bans.Just completed my 16th day of quarantine,I gave them a couple of bonus days due to the crap weather here in the UK.Maybe I shall just go to Havana!

[Timmy Tomkins]

You raise an interesting point.


No, Aviation just cannot work together for the greater good.

Personal self interest Rules OK!!!

The Human race can't work together for the greater good.

[EvaDestruction]

Perhaps the reason for that is that the population density for the human species is too high. There are too many on the planet?

[BallastBob]

The aviation industry will not rebound from this in the way everyone on this forum is hoping. That is the reason airlines aren’t being bailed out by the government - they’d rather throw good money after bad somewhere the public actually cares about rather than lose their shirt on an industry that they want to phase down - for many reasons, not least the environmental ones (that the public ‘cares’ about). Why won’t it bounce back? Because business customers (like me) have found a different, more convenient and cheaper way of working online. Having flown around the globe several times on business trips (with large teams of people filling the seats and costing a fortune) I can’t imagine ever having to do it again...and for that I am profoundly grateful. Will I fly on business? Probably - down from 10 - 15 long hauls per year to zero and the same amount of short hauls to just a handful. Everything else can be done online. Will I still want to go on holiday? Yes, but not if prices sky-rocket to compensate. The aviation industry is on a cliff edge...thank you for taking care of me and my fellow travellers...but now it’s time for you to take care of yourselves and your families.

[A320LGW]

BoJo and his lot are far too scared to be seen to support what has become the scapegoat for all environmental criticism.

I see it that he wants to come across as strong in the fight against the virus, pulling out all the stops etc.

Of course this is all in the hope that people will forget his foolish behavior at the start of the pandemic that involved gloating about going into a hospital with COVID patients and shaking everyone's hand.

He is more than willing to sacrifice UK aviation if it means saving votes.

[Meester proach]

U.K. aviation can never recover with these insane last minute knee jerk quarantines - how can anyone book reliably for holiday or a work trip ?

[Trossie]

Stop blaming your local politicians. Look instead at the source of the real problem. Are you helping to 'feed' it? Or are you actively doing your bit to starve it? Or are you just sitting and whinging?

[Mooneyboy]

Don’t be under any illusion it would have been better with another party in power. Look at the heavily Lib Dem Labour cross party report. Your quarantine on return you’ll be in a specific hotel under observation! Aviation would be in a far bigger mess.

[BallastBob]

I got a month ban for pointing out that our pathetic politicians are in thrall to climate change activists and in particular the teenage wunderkid from Sweden. The bonkers reality we now find ourselves in as professional pilots is indeed to witness the decline of our incredible industry. Political correctness is lapped up by generally spineless politicians and a supine media. The vast majority of them and the aforementioned climate change warriors are in the main not educated scientifically and generally have zero understanding of scientific or engineering principles. I include the graduates from Oxbridge etc. I doubt whether most of them could explain the inner workings of the internal combustion engine. Sometimes you get the same stuff here as the professional pilot part of pprune appears to be disappearing at great speed. It’s a real shame.
There are many factors at work here, not least of which is the dawning realisation of the public that in aviation at least, it is much better to arrive than travel. Does anybody actually enjoy flying? Passengers and pilots seem to agree that it’s not fun anymore and hasn’t been for a looong time. Up until now there were no alternatives, however, in the non-aviation corporate world, non-flying and the alternative of remote working are ‘taking-off’ (apologies) in a big way, driven by cost savings and a real lack of desire with the decision makers (purse string holders) to get on a plane. Yes, you’ll still have the holidaymakers but businesses have grounded themselves (largely), for good (...or bad, depending on your perspective). Sadly there is now massive over-capacity for the foreseeable...and that means scaling down. It’s pure economics, the ‘eco-warriors’ are just sitting on the sidelines feeling a bit smug. The aviation industry will survive of course and perhaps it will be ‘fun‘ once again...just on a fraction of the scale today.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Apologies for the dramatic title, but it may not be much of an exaggeration.


Why has there been zero support for our critical industry from either the Transport Minister, Grant Shapps, or his junior underling the Aviation Minister, Kelly Tolhurst?

More importantly, what can we take as a professional group to help stop the rot before it is too late? I fear many pilots, engineers, crew, and office staff will never work for an airline again. This is a tragedy.

Well if you had done any research, you would have seen that is not true." British carriersBritish Airways, easyJet and Ryanair have all taken advantage of the COVID Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF) set up by the Bank of England. British Airways received £300 million ($374 million) while Ryanair received £600 million ($749 million). easyJet has accessed GBP £600 million ($750m) from the same source."

This is from simpleflying.com but I cannot post the full link.

Since all the airlines are still there, how do you think government money would have changed matters ? You are presumably not asking for money to pay everybody until the industry is back to 100%, so what is the realistic situation that you would want now ?

[capngrog]

I've read and heard from several sources that the domestic airline industry in China is back to about 98% of their previous (pre-China flu) operational tempo.

[Golf--Lima--Papa]

These ridiculous ill thought quarantine rules are strangling the life out our industry.

The most frightening aspect is the government has no end game. Numbers are increasing throughout Europe and now we have this crazy threshold for infections of 20 cases per 100.000.

Within 3/4 weeks there won’t be many places we can travel in Europe without having to quarantine on return.

While all this is killing the industry hospital admissions rates and death rates are not rising as earlier in the year.

[PilotLZ]

Clamping down travel from locations with confirmed cases would have made sense half a year ago. Right now, it hardly does. The vast majority, and by that I mean well over 90% of all cases, are a result of domestic transmission. Imported cases are no longer a major source of new infections. So, how does it make sense to impose some seriously tough restrictions over what accounts for a minority of cases instead of directing the same policing resources towards stamping out the major source of cases, namely the non-adherence to any safety rules WITHIN the country?

[black diamond]

Screw UK aviation into the ground, reduce emissions, pretend we’ve all gone green, eliminate the need for RW3 at Heathrow and even the local MP (and many more Home Counties MPs) keep their jobs, siphon that money off into a vanity project called HS2

[woptb]

Market forces,self levelling, supply and demand,no atheists in slit trench’s and aren’t the Tories wonderful........

[polax52]

There are many factors at work here, not least of which is the dawning realisation of the public that in aviation at least, it is much better to arrive than travel. Does anybody actually enjoy flying? Passengers and pilots seem to agree that it’s not fun anymore and hasn’t been for a looong time. Up until now there were no alternatives, however, in the non-aviation corporate world, non-flying and the alternative of remote working are ‘taking-off’ (apologies) in a big way, driven by cost savings and a real lack of desire with the decision makers (purse string holders) to get on a plane. Yes, you’ll still have the holidaymakers but businesses have grounded themselves (largely), for good (...or bad, depending on your perspective). Sadly there is now massive over-capacity for the foreseeable...and that means scaling down. It’s pure economics, the ‘eco-warriors’ are just sitting on the sidelines feeling a bit smug. The aviation industry will survive of course and perhaps it will be ‘fun‘ once again...just on a fraction of the scale today.

You needed to add at the end of your statement.... IMHO

The truth is, the world has a growing population full of young people who do not wish to stay in one place. Travel is in the human psyche just like sex. When this finishes, give it a year there'll be the biggest boom in Airline travel that the world has ever seen... IMHO

[ericsson16]

Wonderful to hear such positiveness at last,negativity seems to have taken over the UK mind set.

[dc9-32]

Unions in UK do nothing to help members. Take your subscription but when needed, the rabbit in the headlights appears and you are left on your own.

Businesses around the world, not just in the aviation sector, are falling apart. Governments, be they UK, US, European, are making it up as they go along because they were simply not prepared - they had no contingency for the "what if" situation.

All of this whilst China appears to carry on as normal. They've done their bit maybe and yet we still rely on the country for help. I don't just mean help with PPE either.

Never going to happen but the world (except China), needs to rally together and tackle industry, business and commerce to help all get back on their feet. It will take years maybe but whilst each country has it's own idea of recovery, the country next door does something different. Revolving door springs to mind.

[Trossie]

ericsson16

I fully agree and 'IMHO' I feel that polax52 has got it spot on.

Cautious measures now might appear painful, for a while, but if that is what is needed to get the domestic economy opening up, that will provide the future demand for air travel. British Aviation will never die, it may look a little different eventually but it will survive ... and do well.

There... said it!

[ATSA1]

Air travel may well boom again when this pandemic is finished....IF its ever truly finished! We are seeing the second wave hitting now, and who knows, there may be a third or fourth wave!
Everyone seems to cling to the thought that this will be over by next year...I am not so sure!
Then there is still Greta and her tree huggers to contend with...and oil isnt going to stay cheap forever...
The Duke of Wellington , when he was Prime Minister in the 1830s, said that he disliked the coming of the railways, "Because it enables the working classes to move about"....I think this is still Govt policy..."They" dont want us moving about any more...they want us sto stay at home and work online, where "they" know where we are and what we are doing...
Jetting off to Malaga for 2 weeks every summer is just what they dont want us doing!
Just my 2 rands worth...and I am not allowed to travel anywhere!!

[Momoe]

Polax and Trossie,

Agree that travelling in the blood, long distance tourism may resume but that's generally economy.
The airlines biggest cash cow has been business/premium travel and IMHO is not going to rebound as fast as tourism.

Aviation will survive but will have to evolve.

[BallastBob]

Ok; “IMHO”

Also, IMHO; You are perhaps making the mistake of ‘baseline trend neglect’. Young people are even more capable/‘happy’ to work online/remotely further negating the aviation/business bounce back. I agree, they (‘The Young’) will want to travel for leisure but the economics mean that their business travel will be down - because old codgers like me - in my mid-40s who are the decision makers on corporate travel - will say no. From what I can see the new generation of ‘Young’ are also finding it harder to build careers, harder to break free from their parental home and are struggling to make ends meet while saving for a large deposit for a house/flat (unlike my generation who wrecked it all with 95%+ mortgages). Are they really going to be able to fulfil their wanderlust in a way that will compensate for the loss of business travel, say, within the next ten years and are they going to accept the environmental impact (either real or perceived)? All, again, IMHO.

[BallastBob]

Trossie

(IMHO) You are quite correct - British Aviation will survive. It will look a LOT different though and SOME, indeed, will do well - in every crisis there is opportunity - but who will grasp the opportunity most fearlessly and firmly and who will cling on for dear life and succumb in the end regardless?

[PilotLZ]

Chill out, nobody's monitoring your life to the extent that they want you to stay at home 24/7, work online and not go anywhere so that you're easier to track. Each one of us is just one of the many - and our daily activities are rather uninteresting to the New World Order or whatever you call it. And, even if someone wants to track your movement - that's easy enough, given that everyone has a smartphone in their pocket these days.

Aviation will still be there once this is over, and I don't buy the idea that it will be any smaller than pre-COVID. However, some things will look different. I think that this was one last nail in the coffin of proper short-haul legacy. Just watch what the likes of Wizz air are doing now. Expanding at Gatwick, Donny and where not else, while legacy carriers struggle with a high cost base and a severely reduced income. So, I see it as the LCC/ultra-LCC model becoming the standard for short-haul, simply because it's the only chance to catch up with the pioneers in that category. On short-haul routes, there will be this sort of no-frills service for the lower market segment, potentially an increased number of business jets for the premium segment - and not much in between.

[kungfu panda]

People have got poorer because of this Pandemic but a large group of people are richer e.g. Tesla shareholders. Just watch premium class travel boom as well.

[Xulu]

Business travel will of course recover, for the same reason it was still growing in 2019 - despite Zoom and Teams already being here.

Middle managers at Companies A, B, C can all crow about how much they’re now saving on travel.

Right now it seems like an obvious win because everyone’s grounded.

Until Company D decides to get on the plane, and poaches that big account. And suddenly, everyone’s back travelling again.

Maintaining relationships and taking honest feedback is crucial in big business.

Otherwise, watch your logos churn without giving a moments thought about you.

Business travel will be back, not immediately, but it’ll work itself out.

[PilotLZ]

True. Face-to-face contact will never, ever be completely replaced by Zoom. Business travel has an important social component to it which is unbreakably connected to live interaction.

The fact that we have only known life for a couple of decades doesn't mean that it has started with our birth. It was there long before - and all sorts of diseases were an intrinsic part of it, often being far more dangerous and lethal than COVID-19. Neither of them fundamentally changed the nature of humans as social beings. And COVID-19 won't do it either. Ask some of those who are working from home now whether they would like to spend the rest of their working lives like that (and also stay put on their vacations and days off, effectively limiting life to the space between the sofa and the grocery store). The vast majority of those I know are actually very much looking forward to returning to the office! Even those who absolutely loved working from home in the first month or two miss their social interactions now.

The UK is uniquely positioned in many aspects, with London being one of those global hubs of everything. Without aviation, it just cannot function in its present way that ensures its prosperity. Think about it, how many world capitals can boast the same number of global headquarters or the same diversity as London? Not many! So, there is and there will be a lot to fuel that need for travel. And did I mention that not many of these people would be content to not seeing their families abroad ever again or spending all holidays till the end of their lives in good old Cornwall? So, the market is there. It's a matter of time for things to calm down and it will reach and exceed its 2019 levels once again.

[Richard Dangle]

As others have said Face to Face contact will always be important, Zoom is the modern 'it' thing to be seen doing it won't last.

You sound exactly like the guy who said online shopping would never catch on back in the nineties :p

[Flugplatz]

I am sure it will bounce back, may take some time and will be leaner and meaner (not that that is good for airline T's and C's sadly). One thing has stood out for me over the last decade or so: unfortunately (or fortunately?) the flying public are a bunch of total hypocrites when it comes to aspirations versus reality. The climate agenda has been climbing the headlines now for many years, and just as rapidly air travel has been expanding with ever greater numbers flying globally. A lot of people seem quite happy with that fact as long as no-one makes too much of a fuss about the contradiction. Even if Europe slows down temporarily, a whole lot of increasingly prosperous countries will be quite happy to take up the slack,

[PilotLZ]

You walk into a shop, buy your stuff and walk away. Unlike work where, on an average working day, you spend a good half of your time awake. So, making work devoid of live contact is incomparably more damaging to your social life and wellbeing, as compared to making shopping devoid of live contact. Being stuck alone in a room staring at a computer screen all day long is only fun for a short while.

Speaking numbers, the current number of flights within Europe is roughly 50% of 2019 levels. Even though, factually, we're in what Eurocontrol label as the pessimistic scenario (uncoordinated border control), this traffic number is in line with the optimistic, coordinated reopening scenario. Airlines have mostly worked out that not flying is cheaper than flying at a loss; ghost flights to keep slots are no longer a thing either. This suggests that most of these flights are operated on a cash-positive basis. So, even in dire times like now, there are still fair numbers of people wishing to travel. As soon as the current broad, knee-jerk restrictions are no longer a thing, it will only become better and better.

[ChrisVJ]

Been saying it for ages. For those who say "we are living in a new world and it will never get back to 'normal.'"I always consider the absurd.

Did you, for the last few years' walk around in a mask because of the flu epidemic of 1918-1919? Did you even 'not' travel last year because of the H1N1 epidemic of just a few years ago?

We thought we travelled a lot when we were younger and our kids travel twice as much at the same age. Can't see them giving it up for long and MrsVJ is already saying "I'm just looking, I'm not booking anything, this doesn't mean we have to go."
Might as well get my bags packed!

[Trossie]

About the Zoom, Skype, whatever - two family members (separately) ended up working from home. Eventually they were 'screaming at the walls' wanting to get back into the office to be able to see people and get their jobs done better. Those things have their place, but they won't take over the world, people will still be travelling.

About the online shopping: yes, people will use it for the boring things like their boxes of cornflakes, bottles of washing liquid, loo rolls (!!) and the like. But as for the fresh stuff like meat, fruit and veges, etc., have you noticed the boom in business with butchers, vege shops and farm shops? As for the rest of online shopping, apparently that is causing somewhat of a boom for certain sectors of British Aviation. :p

[BallastBob]

😂 So true. There seems to be a wilful disregard of technological and psychological progress - catalysed by COVID-19 - (where face2face vs remote working is concerned) on this thread.

[PEI_3721]

The Death of British Aviation. - as we knew it.
Many of the points of view reflect the shock of change, having to confront a rapidly evolving and uncertain world. We dislike uncertainty and fear the inability to manage future situations.
We have had to manage and adapt previously - the old day job; the difference now is the nature and degree of uncertainty, and speed of change and thus adaptation.

First change the way we think about these issues "… start from the idea that there is no single way to identify a problem…"
'We are no longer architects of our future, we are the gardeners.'

http://www.demos.co.uk/files/Connecting_the_dots_-_web-2.pdf
Sections 1 and 5

[BallastBob]

Middle managers at Companies A, B, C can all crow about how much they’re now saving on travel.

Right now it seems like an obvious win because everyone’s grounded.

Until Company D decides to get on the plane, and poaches that big account. And suddenly, everyone’s back travelling again.

Maintaining relationships and taking honest feedback is crucial in big business.

Otherwise, watch your logos churn without giving a moments thought about you.

Business travel will be back, not immediately, but it’ll work itself out.[/QUOTE

You just don’t get it do you? Who pays for all these business seats? Look at the companies (outside aviation) that are doing very well and look at the ones who are doing poorly. The ones who are doing well on average) are ones that negate air travel (or any travel) save for direct delivery of goods and services. The ones that are doing poorly (on average) are the ‘traditional’ industries whom *traditionally* have had to fly people all over the place. I totally agree that you can’t beat face to face meetings - in some, mainly relationship driven interactions - but they are becoming fewer. As Jeff Bezos said, “Their margin is my opportunity.” meaning; in the digital world EVERYONE has to squeeze their margins and that means companies stopping non-ESSENTIAL travel. Yes, perhaps the head of a project for instance will fly out to win or ‘seal the deal’ based on a tonne of remote working by large teams, BUT he won’t be taking twenty people with him...they’ll join the meeting remotely, from home, worrying about the dog barking. This isn’t a binary issue, it is one of scale and those middle-managers crowing over savings will, in all likelihood, make the savings, smell the coffee, work from home in a non-traditional industry..or at least a traditional industry that has kept pace - adapted. So, British aviation WILL survive. It will, however, need to adapt to survive and that means taking this current crisis/opportunity by the scruff of its neck. You can always scale up later if the internet breaks and everyone feels the need to jump on a plane.

[BallastBob]

As of 9th August 2020 9.6 million people from 1.2 million UK companies on furlough. (Ref. Statistica). UK businesses are about to make a good proportion of the flying business community redundant but are holding off while the government subsidises wages until the end of October. Middle-managers (crowing??) from company A, B & C are putting jobs over travel and company D is doing the same. This is all short term of course, perhaps the next 2 - 3 years while the economy corrects itself. The long term effect will be that people who hitherto believed in the sacrosanct nature of live face to face meetings will realise that so much more is possible working remotely...or they too will be phased out. I can see a rift developing in the business community right now and while the threat of redundancy looms - those embracing the future (survive and thrive) and those desperate to return to ‘normal’. To those who say that Zoom and Teams etc, etc, are not a viable alternative to (a great deal of) travel and face2face...beware...are you in the ‘desperate to get back to normal’ category? Watch what happens 30 days from the end of furlough...

[BallastBob]

Whoa! Cool your jets man. Yes, some platforms have had their day and get replaced...but I think Facebook and Twitter are okay for the time being. As for all the other platforms...they are getting smarter, faster, better every day. Believe me, I’m procuring their services on a grand scale and their time is NOW. Travel won’t end...those of us who embrace change will travel...on holiday...not for business so much. Hope your normal turns out okay for you.

[Denti]

I believe the question is not if flying will be necessary. The question remains how much flying and crucially for the full service carriers, in what booking classes.

What puzzled me about this whole issue is how different countries reacted to the Covid crisis and different sectors. Continental europe went to state aid quite rapidly and in very high amounts, Lufthansa for example has now received in excess of 12 billions of state aid from at least three different governments. Air France and Alitalia both receive quite a bit of help as well. And the british aviation sector? Not much help at all from the government. And even in the USA there were massive government interventions for the sector.

[BallastBob]

Didn’t the pilots and cc of Lufthansa accept a 50% pay cut rapidly and BEFORE the government bailed them out with 12 Bn? Seems like they worked - as one - and presented a coherent proposition??

[Irish Cream]

What we are seeing in UK and Global aviation is what perhaps would inevitably have transpired over a longer period of time. Covid-19 has sped up the pace of change to such an extent some people won’t be able to accept what’s happening.

[Denti]

BallastBob

Not quite as much, well, no idea about the cabin crew to be honest. Pilots did give something, but not nearly as much as 50%, time limited until the end of september. After the bailout they added another three months (including a clause that makes it impossible for the company to fire anybody until three months afterwards with notice periods as long as 12 months). However, of course the german government helps quite a bit as Kurzarbeit (available to anybody with a german contract, so not only Lufthansa but also Ryanair and Easyjet) allows up to 20 months of reduced work and wage subsidy up to 87% (from month 7 on and with kids) of up to €6.900 gross, but as far as i know Lufty tops that up to full pay.

Anyway, still surprised that the british government only offered a normal business rate loan capped at 600m (iirc).

[Richard Dangle]

If you want to go an live a sad little world of never leaving your own house carry on, for the rest of us we want to get back to normal.

I know times are tough, but why get personal? I made no subjective comment...just a simple observation with a very simple implied message. Progress bites the bottom of those that decry it. Increased online activity is an undeniable fact, Covid may or may not accelerate that dynamic...that's an arguable opinion. The effect it will have on air travel (specifically business travel) has yet to be determined. But one must be very heavily infected with a spectacular dose of cognitive bias to suggest that "its just a phase, don't worry it will pass". Progress tends not to work like that. Fair enough perhaps the retail example is too simplistic...how about the General who didn't like tanks because they scared horses??? Here's a link to loads of similar...knock yourself out

https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/worst-tech-predictions-of-the-past-100-years-c18654211375/

Incidentally, I'm 63, what I think of the future (of aviation or anything else) is of no consequence. The future belongs to people who are currently in school.

[Trossie]

Regarding all those failed predictions, I clearly remember the predictions decades ago that TV was going to cause the imminent collapse of the cinema. This horrible virus is having a terrible effect on all forms of theatre but once social mixing is safe again, I can see the 'sociability' side of all forms of theatre helping them to make a comeback - including cinema.

Many companies will find remote ways of working. However, I feel I can safely predict that when the first company puts someone on an aeroplane to meet a potential customer face-to-face and as a result of that personal contact walks away with a whole lot of contracts taken from those companies that had 'hovelled away' into their 'remote contact only because it is saving us money on air travel' policies, you will find a huge increase in business air travel.

People are going to get fed up with staring in isolation at their TV screens. They are going to want to get out and see sports matches for real again, go on holiday abroad again, meet family and friends again. And to do that they need to travel, small bits to start with like down to the local football club but soon after that will spread like going to the other side of the world to follow The Ashes live. It will come back, and with the frustration at being cooped up at home that I am hearing personally from so many people (more the youngsters than the old folk), expect it to come back with a vengeance! Brits like to travel and that will be good for British Aviation. (But I am not hearing anything here on the benefits that 'online buying' is already bring to British Aviation - how do 'things' get to places??)

[polax52]

BallastBob

Reading your posts, I don't really understand what you're thinking. Do you think that the number of Aeroplanes flying will be reduced in the years after Covid is eliminated? or do you think that business class travel will be reduced?

If you're thinking that the number of Aeroplanes flying will be reduced then I'd say that you're believing what the Saudi's believed regarding US oil in 2015. They seemed to think that if you put the fracking companies out of business, the oil would stop coming out of the ground. That is of course not true.

The same applies here, you have 10,000 plus Aeroplanes, less than 10 years old, worth between $100m and $300m, sitting on the ground. While the companies which have been operating these Aircraft may well become insolvent and creditors may well take control. Leasing companies may take their aircraft back. These Assets are worth $0 to anyone if they're not flying. Therefore the value of the assets will be written off down to the level that gets them flying again. 50%-60% of your Airline ticket price is the capital cost of the aircraft. Throw in a few years of cheap fuel and cheap crews, as soon as travel becomes legal again and fear is removed,your ticket from London to Sydney will be cheaper than your national express bus from Newcastle to Heathrow. The flights will be full. Maybe the Business travellers will be fewer?

[PilotLZ]

Trossie, excellent point about the cinemas. On a similar note, how come that restaurants didn't close down as soon as food delivery services became a thing? Why doesn't everyone just order food online and eat at home instead of meeting up with friends for a meal? Because staying at home 24/7/365 and fencing yourself off from the rest of the world is in no way desirable to anyone in their right mind. People want to go places, explore, socialise - and no technology can deprive them of the desire to do so. It's for a good reason that imprisonment is used as a punishment and not as a reward - the idea of being locked up in a room and isolated from the outside world is not appealing to anyone.

Does anyone think that "generation Instagram" will trade their outings to Ibiza, Dubrovnik or Sunny Beach for staying put or going for local holidays only? Or that they won't take the chance to personally visit their business partners in New York instead of limiting all interactions to Zoom calls? Doesn't look even remotely likely. Those in whose hands is the future take mobility for granted. Demand will be there - the only question is about which brands will be there to meet it in a couple of years and what exactly their service will look like.

[BallastBob]

polax52

My thinking; we are on the cusp of the biggest customer revolution the aviation industry has seen. I can not fault your analysis above at all - I think you are spot on. My only point is regarding business class customers and the fact that much commentary has been about how it will all get back to normal pretty quickly. From a business point of view there are factors that affect aviation and may well affect aviation permanently. The business community has been forced into home-working for instance and it turns out that something that could never happen is now (often, but not always) the preference of said businessman or business woman. Similarly, remote working is now proving to be less of a problem than everyone thought. (Who thought my GP (of advanced years) would be offering me telephone or face2face remote consultations? If (parts of) the behemoth that is the NHS can make the change then the comparatively agile private business sector can and will too...does anyone think GPs will go face2face-appointment first ever again, even after Covid has abated?). It (remote working) won’t entirely replace live face to face meetings but they will be minimised to the essential travel to win/retain the business. It is NOT about cost savings at its core (although short-term cost savings have to be made to retain some of those 9.6 million furloughed employees in a much shrunken economy), it is about enhanced service, time-efficiency, employees health and well-being and yes, eco-sustainability (which is increasingly a factor in winning competitive tenders by the way). There will still be a lot of travel (perhaps very cheap travel too) but aviation does not exist in a bubble and trends within other industries will have their effect. Let’s look at the alternative as you describe: Aviation goes through the wringer over the next year or so and pops out the other side ultra-efficient with tickets at super-low prices. Will the business community all start jumping on planes? Absolutely not...why would they...they are working differently now. Will we all enjoy more holidays? Quite possibly (hopefully!). What will the net effect be? Who knows? One thing for sure; back to normal can’t and should NOT be an option - the winners will be the ones who take this massive opportunity and run with it. Sure, I understand the hankering (especially if you are an employee of a large and established carrier) to go back to the good old days (of only the beginning of this year..).

[polax52]

My thinking; we are on the cusp of the biggest customer revolution the aviation industry has seen. I can not fault your analysis above at all - I think you are spot on. My only point is regarding business class customers and the fact that much commentary has been about how it will all get back to normal pretty quickly. From a business point of view there are factors that affect aviation and may well affect aviation permanently. The business community has been forced into home-working for instance and it turns out that something that could never happen is now (often, but not always) the preference of said businessman or business woman. Similarly, remote working is now proving to be less of a problem than everyone thought. (Who thought my GP (of advanced years) would be offering me telephone or face2face remote consultations? If (parts of) the behemoth that is the NHS can make the change then the comparatively agile private business sector can and will too...does anyone think GPs will go face2face-appointment first ever again, even after Covid has abated?). It (remote working) won’t entirely replace live face to face meetings but they will be minimised to the essential travel to win/retain the business. It is NOT about cost savings at its core (although short-term cost savings have to be made to retain some of those 9.6 million furloughed employees in a much shrunken economy), it is about enhanced service, time-efficiency, employees health and well-being and yes, eco-sustainability (which is increasingly a factor in winning competitive tenders by the way). There will still be a lot of travel (perhaps very cheap travel too) but aviation does not exist in a bubble and trends within other industries will have their effect. Let’s look at the alternative as you describe: Aviation goes through the wringer over the next year or so and pops out the other side ultra-efficient with tickets at super-low prices. Will the business community all start jumping on planes? Absolutely not...why would they...they are working differently now. Will we all enjoy more holidays? Quite possibly (hopefully!). What will the net effect be? Who knows? One thing for sure; back to normal can’t and should NOT be an option - the winners will be the ones who take this massive opportunity and run with it. Sure, I understand the hankering (especially if you are an employee of a large and established carrier) to go back to the good old days (of only the beginning of this year..).

Regarding business travel, none of us really know how much will be lost. There are many different reasons people travel in premium classes, they may be sportsmen, Journalists covering sporting events or any entourage. We also return people to their home country's who have medical conditions and whose insurance is covering the expense. Many different worldwide conferences (which will not go online). We carry diplomats and other government officials. Many general passengers travelling for personal reasons who wish to spend on the comfort of a premium class seat. The list goes on and on. As a result of Covid the premium class seats will become more affordable whilst many in the community will be more able to afford those seats (rightly or wrongly, some industries and shareholders have done very well).

Secondly, I believe that you were referring to the Environmentalist issues. If this is a concern to you then I agree. However, the Aviation industry is not the place to start, it is the place to finish.To many it is the easiest polluter to attack because it doesn't effect the lives of the majority of activists in the environmental lobby. In reality people do want to travel, they always have and they always will, it brings people together and makes for a more peaceful world. The reason for not starting with Aviation is that the technology does not YET exist to run Aircraft completely emission free but progress toward that goal is being made very rapidly, aircraft are a full 5 times more efficient than they were 50 years ago. In the meantime it would be sensible to target emissions from Cars, Electrical power Generation, and Factories where the technology does already exist to eliminate emissions. The 2-4% generated by Aircraft will be gone within the next 30 years.

[BallastBob]

Yes, I’m sure you are right. It’ll all be fine. Aviation per se is not my speciality, although business travel is. It has been interesting reading and responding. I’ll leave it to you professionals. All the best.

[wiggy]

Very true Polax...I think many outside the industry are convinced business Class is the preserve of booted and suited men and women on their way to/from the latest sales pitch.

As you say these days (well pre-Covid) it is often anything but.

[BallastBob]

Ha ha, I was hoping to give up on this thread but you’ve reeled me back in :-) It’s economics; it doesn’t matter the demographic of business class (whether they are business people or not), what matters is how many people are going to travel, how often and how much they will pay for a ticket (the profitability of that ticket). If, as some here have speculated, there will be, after a readjustment, plenty of seats at low prices then this will be great for the consuming public of any ‘class’, business or otherwise - cheap upgrades all round - gets my vote! BUT, if the readjustment doesn’t scale back operating costs sufficiently (mainly jobs and wages sadly) those tickets will have to be sold in exponential volumes. Every passenger will be crucial, every trip will be crucial. I’m just saying that there will be fewer business passengers making fewer trips. The ‘real’ business passenger may only make up a small proportion of business ‘class’ but they do two things; travel more often and personally care less about the ticket cost - it’s what makes them so profitable as individual passengers. Whether the shortfall is made up by higher volume and frequency elsewhere remains to be seen.

[pax britanica]

My Canadian neighbour who has a passing interest in Aviation said to me the other day that he had been thinking that given our history in Aviation the Government didnt seem too concerned about helping it especially given our love of showing off Spitfires and the by now quite ancient Red |Arrows as symbols of the country.
Hesaid the more he thought about it British avaition rather morrored the country as whole in as much as far from winning WW2 Britaina nd along with it its avaition industry were the losers.
This seemed a buit extreme to me in out break between noisily mowing our front gardens and asked him to elaborate.
He said that thinking back from now to the recently passed VJ day that looking back on the main priotagonsist in WW2 the UK had suffered the greatest decline , as he put it -
America emerged unchallnged as the worlds primary economic and military force , nukes and a massive economy benefiting post war from wartime investments in modern aviation manufacturing, the interstate and long distance phone networks
Russia who suffered more than anyone became a super power in the military sense witht he second loudest voice on the world stage
Germany , West at the time dragged itself from the ruins to become Europe's main economy rebuilding its traditonal strengths of engineering and science
France became the truly independent nuclear power in Europe and began to work with as opposed to against Germany to build the economic superpower that is the EU
But what of the Brits, we had at immnse cost in indebtedness tot he USA held the line while the US and Russia built the immense forces that won WW2 in the sense of defeating the Germans but our heroic efforts as aprt of that triumverate came at an appaling econic and politc price, . Our industry was outdated and worn out , our Empire lost (at USAs behest in many cases) Canada, Australia and especially India finding their own places ina changing world and we were elft witha staggering debt to the US. Aviation in UK had focussed on military and high rates of production in heath robinson facilites . While we had great ideas in the Comet and Viscount they were built in pre war tired old factories and of course over time Boeing and Airbus ruled the slies in the same way that our once incomparable merchant navy vanshed under the tide of modern ports and containerisation and loss of Empire.

So in the end it seems we didnt win WW2 at all and that all that gallantry and determination was dissipated in the economic realities of the last half of the twentieth century and that while all the other main protagonists got something positive from it for us it is just misplaced nostalgia and a continuing looking back at a past of empire and ruling the waves and Spitfires over the white cliffs of Dover and that maybe now we should quietly consigned the tokens of a long ago victory to the history books, not to be forgotten but placed in their proper context.

He compared his own country today to us in Britain and how Canada has moved forward overcoming the challenges of separatism and its often very noisy and aggressive neighbour while, in his mind (and his father died at Dieppe) we here have sadly let everything drift away on an ocean of nostalgia and wishful thinking of becoming Great again. ( while wondering perhaps how my own children have chosen to live in Eastern Europe and my neighbour on the other sides children have gone to Japan and a friend father down the roads has son in Berlin and a daughter in Lyon and I wonder what my father and father in law who both spent 5/6 years of their twenties in India defending a pillar of Empire we walked away from when the war ended. Maybe they would think my Canadian friend had a point-they most certainly wouldnt have even picked up their Lee Enfield 303s if they thought a man like Boris Jonson would one day be PM
I'll go and hide in deep shelter now and await incoming