HOLD ON TO YOUR UNDERPANTS !!

[Curry Lamb]

For the benefit of those who doesn't get the SCMP with their morning coffee.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3097822/moving-beyond-covid-19-cathay-pacific-wrestles-uncertainty

“Surely part of the restructuring is a take-it-or-leave-it for the pilots – take a new contract or redundancy,” said a company veteran not authorised to speak to the media.

Pretty much sums it all up. Good luck to all, may the force be with you.

[0ztranaut]

If the industry is expected to recover ~2023/24 why accept anything other than temporary changes to your contract?

[Farman Biplane]

I am sure CX will do the RIGHT thing and make sure there are snapback provisions when there is a return to profitability!
Or more likely, never miss the opportunity in a crisis.....

[Zapp_Brannigan]

Funny that you're posting a link of an article written by someone who probably got his "information" here.

Not even my managers friends know for sure what's coming.
His "veteran" anonymous source is only guessing. And his guess is as good as anyone's.

[MENELAUS]

Yes obviously a slack day for copy down at SCMP metro. Only two 90 year olds perished yesterday so Danny has been drafted in to fill top slot.
SCMP. Hong Kong’s answer to the Daily Ma@l. !

[herewego75]

It is shocking that everyone here is living in dream land. This take it or leave it deal will be presented to us in October! If you don't think this will happen then you are probably the dumbest of the dumb.
You have time to plan now, use it to plan your finances and see if you can accept a cos18 type package.

Everyone that did not take ERS and was considering it, but wanted to stay to "stick" it to the company you going to regret it!

[Busbitch]

Ha! "take it or leave it !!!" It's sheer brilliance ! They will save heaps of money, which is super important right now, while at the same time kissing goodbye to those Pilots who are opposed to the "take it or leave it" style offer, i.e. the very same "expensive" Pilots they have been wanting to get rid of since '08. A masterstroke & a win win for the company and shareholders and HK government !
N.B. Strategy likely to be reviewed later, after A350 size, great smoking hole left in the ground.....

[CodyBlade]

Danny's 'source' is this thread.

[Farman Biplane]

Take it or leave it is still a risk to the company. Should an organised and cohesive workforce decide to "leave it" CX/KA will be grounded. Bargaining power?
There are almost no COS18 Captains at the moment. The vast majority affected will be CN and FO's.
What are the chances of that happening? Well lets see what the COS99/08ers and HKAOA and can conjure up.
Take it or leave it is a now or never moment.

[Kitsune]

‘Organised and cohesive workforce’.... bwahahahaha!!😂😂😂😂😂

[BalusKaptan]

Just remember that the SCMP is owned by Alibaba, a CCP mouthpiece.

[Tappingtheadmiral]

That didn’t impact their reporting last year they were distinctly anti government

[ron burgandy]

Honestly, you lot need to get out of Hong Kong for a while and away from the vortex of doom you all talk yourselves into.

There is a future to this industry beyond the next 12-24 months. Rather than already accepting defeat and conceding that some sub standard contract is inevitable, why not focus on what is required long term.

You let lazy, high school standard journalists, writing unsourced articles determine how your future will play out. Really?

I don’t doubt there’s some pain coming, but it does not need to be catastrophic. Hanging out in the Plaza promoting defeatist attitudes is some perverse form of self harm.

How about we focus not only on how to get through the next 12-24 months, but also on the next 2 decades and what a successful airline will need to be equipped with.

We’ve just discovered there’s a fair few of our numbers who can’t safely operate to the required standard if they aren’t flying weekly. Now is not the time to be kissing farewell to every experienced crew member in the joint.

[Dilbert68]

Well said Ron.

[ChrissyPrezzie]

Honestly, you lot need to get out of Hong Kong for a while and away from the vortex of doom you all talk yourselves into.
I believe we all want to get out of Hong Kong for a while, it’s just, we have nowhere to go. 14 days isolation there, 14 days isolation here. That takes up almost a month. Tho I admire your optimism.

[CodyBlade]

A short 5 day trip is 14+5+14 total of 33 days!.

[MENELAUS]

Lunacy. All of it. And achieves stuff all.

[Numero Crunchero]

The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.

Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80.

So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me.

The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden.

Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert)

Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system?


Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.

Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown.

And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%.

Clearly i am missing something about Victoria- maybe it is just state premiers being able to exercise, and abuse, power for the first time since federation almost 120 years ago.

[Zapp_Brannigan]

NC,

I agree with what you said, except maybe for the Swedish example, their population density being very different than other countries around the world (especially HK).
Furthermore, their self-discipline compared to other Southern Euro countries could well have played a big role in their good results.

Seeing how bad it was in Italy when it all started, it was logic to impose a lockdown or at least restrict travels.
But now that hospitals around the world are basically empty?
It seems nobody taking decisions knows what the R stands for in the CLEAR model...

[LongTimeInCX]

NC,

It seems nobody taking decisions knows what the R stands for in the CLEAR model...

I think it stands for Retire to the bar

[jriv]

Numero Crunchero

I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.

It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.

[Hydrolix]

That’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying that there is an acceptable level of death in the world and that COVID has only marginally affected it. It is the decisions of governments around the world that he is disagreeing with. There is an acceptable risk of death in many things we do, but the governments don’t ban everything. You have a chance of dying on the roads, but the government don’t ban cars. If you’re worried about dying on the roads, don’t drive but allow people who want to accept that risk to do so. If you’re worried about dying from the ‘Rona then don’t go outside. We live in a (mostly) free world, allow individuals to make their own minds up and assess the risks for themselves.

[jriv]

So you’re arguing against the requirement for seatbelts and other laws society has passed in order to protect the greater good? Sounds like a philosophical argument, not a scientific one.

[missingblade]

Jriv - the irony is that due to the USA's utterly inept management of the virus they will very likely reach a significant level of herd immunity very soon and just like in large parts of Europe the death rates will most likely reduce to almost nothing. Let's hope this is true - and a lot of data now point that way.

If this turns out to be the case - and we will know within the next month or two - then the worst is over and in the EU and the USA life will quickly get back to normal with or without a vaccine.

However HKG, Aus and NZ have painted themselves into a corner with their zero infection policy. And we will be stuck waiting for a vaccine for another year while the western world gets on with life. And their airlines will be flying while cx and quantas slowly go bankrupt.

[Hydrolix]

Laws (such as the seatbelt one) attempt to reduce the risk to as low a point as possible without sacrificing everything else. It is not black and white, everything is a fine balancing act, I would argue most governments around the world have tilted too far in the wrong direction and everybody is paying the price for that. There was a significant element of “follow the leader” as to what was working and what was not. I won’t even get into the “modelling” debacles. If I had to ask myself, where would I rather be right now, 9 months after the initial outbreak? Victoria under stage 4 lockdown, or Sweden under, well nothing? Even if it meant my elderly parents may die 1-2 years early? Easy decision for me. At least I’d get to visit them before they croaked.

[jriv]

I wonder what they'd prefer?

[Hydrolix]

I don’t wonder. I know

[MENELAUS]

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/?fbclid=IwAR3HOFcAVcnJHh7YMEuY6w9OiyEkecRr2MUrQqGZkhXfO70FKj uEltuQQOo

[From a distance]

Can we please get back to holding on to our underpants.

[missingblade]

Here's a scenario for you..

A year from now. The property market has crashed, most hotels and local businesses as well as airlines are bankrupt.

All of hkg gets vaccinated by something thats about 60% effective ( scientists are hoping to see 60%)
Hkg opens up.
Out of 7 million people in hkg there absolutely will be a certain amount who gets sick at that point since the vaccine isn't 100% effective. How many? Maybe conservatively 5% of the population. That's 350000 cases. How many will die? A few thousand since we now know the virus basically only kills old people and those with existing medical issues.
With or without a vaccine there will eventually be deaths.

So to answer you question as to "what they'd prefer" - most older people would probably prefer for the rest of the world's population who are not at risk to get on with their lives while old people are protected. So that the planet doesn't go bankrupt. So that millions don't go hungry. So that millions of children get education. Etc etc..

What will hkg ( and NZ and Aus) do once they have thousands of cases after the vaccination?? Shut down again? Close the schools again?

The above outcome is already achieved in places like Sweden. Without a vaccine they had most likely about 15-20 % of the population infected. And STILL ONLY A FEW THOUSAND DEATHS. As will probably be the case in hkg anyway even with a vaccine. And they did not destroy their economy and society in the process.

[mngmt mole]

Well, that outcome was solely due to Sweden having a courageous, sensible and focused leadership. Not the headline seeking careerists who inhabit most western Governments. We've destroyed a decade of economic growth in 5 months, allowed craven politicians to become authoritarian despots and harmed and killed millions through economic distress and poverty of health care (think of the other illnesses that haven't been treated over the past half year, involving millions of people worldwide...cancers, heart disease etc..). This will prove historically to have been the greatest and most tragic farce in modern human existence. Nothing short of an abomination and outrage.

[Slasher1]

Ya got that right.

Boy do you got that right.

A complete farce in the mistaken belief you can control something you cannot control. And then shifting the goalposts to further bureaucratic self-interests. Enabled by frightened mice who bought into the lie that you can bubble wrap life. Everything has an opportunity cost, and nothing in life is free.

Herd immunity may well work, but the herds can also do some pretty stupid stuff when it comes to mental health and fear based decision making. Placing ones trust in those who should not be trusted and validating the Sage of Baltimore's words about trusting some 'smart' government authority to make a good--or even reasonable--choice: "the worship of jackals by jackasses"

[raven11]

I won’t take credit for the following, it was forwarded to me. I think it summarizes the madness that has gripped mankind:

Corona Virus is the new Global Religion – gathering new believers among the masses like Greta and climate change could not. As evidence consider the following:

– This movement aims to indoctrinate, isolate adherents (or convince them to ‘self-isolate’) and bombard them with 24/7 mental programming.
– Disconnect them from their old ways and culture. Enforce a cancel culture upon non-believers. To shut down and eradicate the Old System.
– Corona is the omnipresent god and sees all. It can get you at home, at work, in the car, in bed, and especially doing fun stuff. (No wonder some other religions ban dancing and frivolity.)
– Non believers and mockers will be stricken with Corona, for they are Sinners.
– You were born sick/sinner. You have no method of proving your health. As a concequence you must attone daily with purification rituals – using Purell, natch.
– You must believe and await the return of your saviour, the vaccine. Beware the false vaccines that are not 100% effective.
– Until that time you must live a pure lifestyle, alone, as in a monastary.
– When in front of your god you must remain reverant, hushed and masked. Do not show ones face, do not question the narrative, or you will be stricken.
– Corona had a virgin birth, got it? Racist.
– Science plays little part in it. The media will ordain the truth.
– Your government and the media are the physical manifestation of the Corona gods. They are the Oracles. Only they can divine the truth and communicate it to you via daily manna sermons – on your personal electronic device.
– At least once daily you should check the Corona numbers and scores. It will give you an idea of how many sinners live among us.
— Gensis: Great reverence is paid to the Flu of 1918. Perhaps spoken about on bended knee. This was 1918 – BCV (Before Corona Virus)
– In the future, all heathens and heretics will be marked by a social justice virtue score. Only those with sufficient virtue, only those which took the communion – the chip, the needle, whatever – will be allowed to gather.

Just raise your arms, wear your Freedom Masks and give thanks. Maybe, one day, far into the future, after all have been cleansed, you might get freedoms back. You must believe in this redemption.

I wish I were joking…

[Oasis]

Or maaaaybe it is not some evil plan to make you communist.

[exfocx]

The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.

Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80. So you're going to average out the WHOLE world and treat every situation as one.

So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me. How many times do you need to hear from the med experts that it's nothing like the flu. Or the damage it's doing to peoples health (heart, lung & brain) who didn't even need a ventilator.

The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden. LMFAO, see below. Even the experts who haven't lambasted Sweden have said it'll take yrs to know the answer the Q was the Swedish path correct. How about looking at the US, Italy, Spain, Britain etc.

Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert). Sweden? Really, what a poor example. Death rate that is 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic counties with NO BETTER ECONOMIC OUTCOME!!!!

Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system? Actually as of 2017 they had 22237 beds, declining from 31365 in 2000 (statista.com). By the way, what was the occupancy level prior to CV? How many ICU beds are there and how many ventilators?


Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.

Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown. According to the AGE, Vic had 1000 as of late March and had ordered 2000, so I doubt that the rest of the country had another 6,500. Do you think they should wait until they get inundated before buying more, or after seeing what was happening in Med countries they should be a little proactive.

And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%. I would say best leave the stats to the professionals. I doubt your high school maths attempt is really up to it.

Clearly i am missing something about Victoria- maybe it is just state premiers being able to exercise, and abuse, power for the first time since federation almost 120 years ago. Yeah, you are. They're there to represent all citizens, not their to let a heap of people needlessly die so your life isn't interrupted. Remember, these people have sons, daughters and grandchildren who most likely have a value towards those you would cast adrift, that isn't of a monetary nature.

Pilots should stick to what they know best, if some non industry idiot starting pontificating about the cause of an accident, pilots would soon tell them where to go with their uninformed opinion. I guess that's the same here and with CC.

[exfocx]

[QUOTE=missingblade;10867273]Jriv - the irony is that due to the USA's utterly inept management of the virus they will very likely reach a significant level of herd immunity very soon and just.....

Seriously, herd immunity? Even the goddam experts are nowhere near claiming that one. I read one from Sweden itself (Karolinska Institute) saying it will yrs before you can work out if Sweden's approach was best and he wasn't bagging it. And you obviously haven't read anything on the pitfalls of so called herd immunity for cv19.

[exfocx]

raven11

I think it very wise of you not to claim credit for such crap. Very wise indeed.

[Numero Crunchero]

Numero Crunchero

I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.

It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.

I quote numbers - and yes I let my opinion sneak in. Here are some numbers - see if they justify the US being in a dire state. Per the JH website the US is up to about 175K covid deaths.

Let's look at the US.
Population 328m - life expectancy 78.4 So, if population was evenly distributed by age, about 4.18 million people die per year. Or in the last 6 months or so, that is just over 2million

The highest co-morbities with covid deaths are Obesity, hypertension and Diabetes.
Almost 40% of adults in the US are obese - that is around 70million of them.
Over 30million US adults have diabetes
Over 100million US adults suffer from hypertension.

In the US from data compiled till mid June(American council on science and health) the mortality rate if infected (IFR) was 0.14% and below, if 64 or younger, and 5.6% if 65 and older.

High risk group is 65 and over
There are at least 54million in this band
25% have diabetes - that is 13.5m
70% have hypertension - that is 37.8m
35% (2010 figures) are obese - that is 18.9m

Life expectancy/mortality rates
65 - 19.4 years/ 5.2%
70 - 15.5 years/ 6.5%
75 - 12 years / 8.3%
80 - 9 / 9.1%
Simple average of those four mortality rates is 7.3%. What that means is that 7.3% of those aged 65-80 die every year. That equates to 3.9million per year - or say 2million since the start of covid.

Total US deaths due to following causes (all ages, not just those over 65)
Obesity 300K (say 150K in last 6 months or so)
Hypertension 472K (around 235K in last 6months)
Diabetes 270K (around 135K in last 6 months)

So a lot of numbers - what does that tell me
Well - we can't add obesity, hypertension and diabetes deaths because presumably many (the majority?) are coincident. So let's just say, in the last 6months, the minimum is 235K (hypertension) and it could be as high as 520K. But maybe the real figure is closer to the hypertension amount of say 235-300K??? Just a guess with no real science behind it.

Now here is the interesting thing - being 65 or over, you have a 7.3% chance of dying in the US this year - based on actuarial tables. But covid mortality, for those over 65 that catch it, was 5.6%. So the mortality rate of covid is LESS than the usual mortality rate for just existing in the US being 65-80.


So no I don't know more than Drs in the world - but 175K deaths when normally the 'co-morbities' of Hypertension, obesity and diabetes cause from 235K-520K deaths in any given six months, doesn't seem like covid is adding to the death toll? Time will tell - when we have data.

[cxorcist]

Pilots should stick to what they know best, if some non industry idiot starting pontificating about the cause of an accident, pilots would soon tell them where to go with their uninformed opinion. I guess that's the same here and with CC.
Yes, let’s leave it up to the experts and shut up about it. Staying uninformed and without opinion except that the Party line is always best. When in history has that ever gone wrong? Oh wait, pretty much every time. Keep thinking pilots... even if you’re not the “experts”!

[8driver]

Pilots should stick to what they know best, if some non industry idiot starting pontificating about the cause of an accident, pilots would soon tell them where to go with their uninformed opinion. I guess that's the same here and with CC.

Here in the United States 40-45% of deaths have been in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Several blue state governors forced nursing homes to take COVID patients. In many states while the facilities were locked down from visitors, staff were not being tested and the infections crept in that way. I believe that problem has generally been solved. The Washington Post reported two weeks ago that 40% of known cases are asymptomatic. That alone tells us that there are many more people have had COVID then the "known cases." We've known that for a while. In all likelihood the fatality rate will be somewhere below 1%. Speaking of current cases in the United States, .67% are listed as serious or critical. That means 99.3% are not. Meanwhile, of the businesses listed on Yelp that had to shut down, 55% have closed for good. Mortgages are not being aid, rent is not being paid. Evictions are on hold but that just kicks the can to the property owner. Yes, 170,000 people have had COVID listed as a contributing factor on their death certificates. Including victims of traffic accidents in some cases. Many of those would have had serious complications from yearly influenza. Let's use a figure of 40 million job losses in the US. That's 235 lives upended for every COVID death and that doesn't take into account the failed businesses, the spike in suicides, the children going hungry, the spike in robberies and home invasions, those with serious medical conditions who aren't going to regular doctor visits due to the climate of fear that the media has generated.

Your rebuttal to NC really didn't refute anything he put forward, it was simply a parroting of the climate of fear narrative. A sample headline I read from two days ago said "At 34 he shrugged at COVID, then came the coma." Uh-huh. Then you read in the last paragraph that individual had certain underlying conditions and engaged in several high risk behaviours that put him at higher risk. Even his 80 something year old mother (whom he infected) recovered faster. But the headline fits the narrative. As pilots we're taught to think, analyze the data, and make decisions accordingly. The data is there, and NC is very good at analyzing it.

Enjoy your house arrest Exfocx, the next generation is gonna look back at this and wonder what the hell we were thinking.

[Numero Crunchero]

Originally Posted by Numero Crunchero View Post (https://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/634877-hold-your-underpants-post10866785.html#post10866785)

The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.

Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80. So you're going to average out the WHOLE world and treat every situation as one.

I can easily get US data – not the rest. I have read that the average mortality age for covid is very close to life expectancy age for each region. In other words - it kills you when you were statistically going to die from something anyway.

So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me. How many times do you need to hear from the med experts that it's nothing like the flu. Or the damage it's doing to peoples health (heart, lung & brain) who didn't even need a ventilator.

I know it is not the flu – but then please go tell them to rename the Spanish Flu – it wasn’t a “flu” either- it was a coronavirus. And the flu usually kills older people – so does covid. So that is the comparison to the flu.

The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden. LMFAO, see below. Even the experts who haven't lambasted Sweden have said it'll take yrs to know the answer the Q was the Swedish path correct. How about looking at the US, Italy, Spain, Britain etc.

Years to know the answer? They have had single digit mortality for almost a month now in Sweden. I did an analysis of the US as someone else mentioned that.

Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert). Sweden? Really, what a poor example. Death rate that is 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic counties with NO BETTER ECONOMIC OUTCOME!!!!

So are you saying 3- 5.5 times as many people have died in Sweden than normal? Or are you saying that the deaths attributable to covid are 3-5.5times their neighbours? Look at my US analysis – you will see that in the US the total number of covid deaths is well inside the ‘venn’ diagram for deaths due to the prevailing co-morbities. Your assertion implies unique and additional deaths – when in fact they could simply be displacement deaths. Time will tell. Yes Sweden apparently trades – so because every other country has shut down, they have been affected economically.


Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system? Actually as of 2017 they had 22237 beds, declining from 31365 in 2000 (statista.com). By the way, what was the occupancy level prior to CV? How many ICU beds are there and how many ventilators?

Ok Google lied to me – it said they had 24,000 odd a couple of years ago – so you got me – if 10,000 went to hospital, that would have been more than40% not 40% as I quoted – you got me – excellent point! (sarcasm alert) I don’t know how many icu beds and ventilators. I tell you what, why don’t you research it and tell us all how wrong I am – or just guess and pontificate? The latter is probably a lot easier isn’t it.


Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.

Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown. According to the AGE, Vic had 1000 as of late March and had ordered 2000, so I doubt that the rest of the country had another 6,500. Do you think they should wait until they get inundated before buying more, or after seeing what was happening in Med countries they should be a little proactive.

(AFR 14/7) “Behind the scenes, ventilators, like almost all medical supplies, were proving difficult to procure from traditional overseas sources. The government turned to domestic suppliers to procure an additional 7500 units.” (my highlight)

So we were both wrong – whatever they had, they now have 7500 extra( I did read elsewhere (AFR) that it was 10,000 but can't find it now). So did Australia have zero before covid? Maybe 5,000? IDK.
I think it was Resmed who supplied them - in the first three months of this year they produced 55,000 ventilators with the vast majority for export.

If you think having only 7450 spare(+what we had precovid) is a significant and important difference to my original assertion of having 9,950 spare, so be it.

And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%. I would say best leave the stats to the professionals. I doubt your high school maths attempt is really up to it.

Don’t worry, I don’t rely on my high school maths- I use my Finance Grad Dip and my US MBA maths – same maths, more cachet ;-) And I was also pretty god damn good at maths at school, even if I say so myself ;-)

As an aside – using US figures it is 7.3% mortality average for 65 and over – so if you assume those that go into nursing homes are on the ‘less healthy’ side of being alive, then a figure higher than 7.3% would be appropriate – so I am pretty impressed with my 10% guesstimate ;-)

[missingblade]

It's simple boys. The politicians massively overreacted based on bad science and a snowball effect. Wuhan locked down because at that point right at the beginning they didn't know how serious and dangerous this virus may be. Which in a way is actually a credit to them.
Unfortunately then the next stop was Bergamo/ Northern Italy - practically the old age home of Europe - so plenty old folks get infected and die and the whole thing looks super dangerous and snowballs from there. Politicians panic since they figure they won't get re elected if granny dies and thus they blindly follow the example of Wuhan and Italy and the rest is history....

I am willing to bet the cx half of my provident fund that in the next few months we will get the data to prove that this was the over reaction of the century by elected idiots, compromised government funded scientists and histerical media. All combined to lead to the ultimate demonstration of the idiocy of crowds in this era of Facebook and fake news.

And all of this makes no difference to the fact that most of the planet will be back in business once the penny drops while HKG is still locked down and taxi drivers here still pump their accelerators like mad to an empty airport of cluelessness and despair.

[sorvad]

So simple isn’t it missingblade. Yet the most eminent epidemiologists around the globe are struggling to understand how this virus behaves and what long term damage it will have for sufferers. Experts in pandemic control with years in the field are struggling to know what sort of NPI’s are appropriate at any given time, yet you and the likes of Numero Crunchero and mngmt mole seem to be absolutely clear with your understanding with what should or shouldn’t have been done. Could you enlighten us as to why we should believe your solutions as opposed to the vast weight of expert opinion around the world?



Oh and Numero Crunchero, could you give me the reference that leads you to believe that Spanish Flu was a Coronavirus and not influenza.

You said this.....

...’I know it is not the flu – but then please go tell them to rename the Spanish Flu – it wasn’t a “flu” either- it was a coronavirus. And the flu usually kills older people – so does covid. So that is the comparison to the flu’

[Slasher1]

It's simple boys. The politicians massively overreacted based on bad science and a snowball effect. Wuhan locked down because at that point right at the beginning they didn't know how serious and dangerous this virus may be. Which in a way is actually a credit to them.
Unfortunately then the next stop was Bergamo/ Northern Italy - practically the old age home of Europe - so plenty old folks get infected and die and the whole thing looks super dangerous and snowballs from there. Politicians panic since they figure they won't get re elected if granny dies and thus they blindly follow the example of Wuhan and Italy and the rest is history....

I am willing to bet the cx half of my provident fund that in the next few months we will get the data to prove that this was the over reaction of the century by elected idiots, compromised government funded scientists and histerical media. All combined to lead to the ultimate demonstration of the idiocy of crowds in this era of Facebook and fake news.

And all of this makes no difference to the fact that most of the planet will be back in business once the penny drops while HKG is still locked down and taxi drivers here still pump their accelerators like mad to an empty airport of cluelessness and despair.

Yup....although the initial reaction was somewhat understandable because no one knew what they had, everything out of China is a lie, and the Chinese would certainly exploit a virus that kills the old and sick to cull their population. The subsequent follow ons have been a bunch of Wesley Mouches trying to outdo each other to use the situation for power and control (and foster their agenda). Same as for masks; properly fitted sterilized single use protective gear can certainly have benefit. When it comes to reused constantly touched (between surface and everything else in the world) cloth providing an ideal breeding ground for pathogens in a warm moist environment you're dealing with propaganda (and potentially making the situation worse). But faceless mask laden droids help foster the illusion of control.

Now, that the science supports going back to school and restarting things, it's ignored as the goalposts have shifted towards an unattainable bubble wrapped world paradigm of 'safety' -- when such an approach actually makes things less safe (rather than fly people now drive increasing their risk and making other skewed decisions; the OTHER risks in life have not gone away and everything is a trade off).

I cannot imagine the deleterious psychological effects this is having on smaller children who are unable to see facial expressions and experience basic human contact -- instead being handled by scary faceless robots. Can't be good for the whole human race either.

Now that we DO have data we find we have a pathogen which exploits certain health conditions and has a strong gradient towards mortality particularly among older individuals (as might ANY flu or additional health condition). The marginal effect of the WuFlu is disregarded and IT becomes the primary cause. None of that data support either mask wearing by the general public or lockdowns have worked to do really anything. And the numbers get skewed to reflect just about any death as WuFlu related; whether that was the primary cause or not. The propaganda around this is frightening; it's not so much the pathogen but the constant propaganda driving bad decisions. No flu should be trivialized but at the same time there's significant opportunity cost to everything AND this WuFlu isn't the only game in town health-wise.

So most of the governments of the world have made panic based decisions and royally stepped on their schlong. Those who've been more rational deserve great credit. But I don't see things as changing anytime soon. And there's a huge aftermath to deal with in terms of lost economics (that 'free' money HAS to come from somewhere).

[YellowFever777]

LOL I love how so many aviators are also now pathogen experts and infectious disease epidemiologists, in addition to being financial advisors and economists.

'The Spanish flu was actually a coronavirus' I expect this to be headline news tomorrow as epidemiologists around the world scratch their heads at this brilliant new finding!

[Farman Biplane]

Meanwhile, when do I have to drop my drawers?

01Sep or a bit later than that, any ppRUMOURS?

[exfocx]

Originally Posted by Numero Crunchero View Post (https://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/634877-hold-your-underpants-post10866785.html#post10866785)

Don’t worry, I don’t rely on my high school maths- I use my Finance Grad Dip and my US MBA maths – same maths, more cachet ;-) And I was also pretty god damn good at maths at school, even if I say so myself

No, you used yr 9 maths at most. You're another example of the old pilot joke about God.

What is it with conspiracy theorists, it isn't intelligence as there's lots of intelligent believers. World Gov, Rothschild / Jewish conspiracy etc; really blows my mind.

[Numero Crunchero]

Oops - I misspoke - spanish flu was a H1N1 - my bad.

Does that mistake make any difference to any of the numbers I quoted? Or is the focus on where I didn't dot the "i"s and cross the 't"s?


Discussing covid seems to be like religion - or better yet, US politics. You are either a rabid Trump supporter or a rabid trump hater. Apparently there is no middle ground any more - nor can you possible question said "for" or said "against" positions because clearly you are unqualified.

Next time the nice man in uniform tells you to take off your clothes, shave your head, leave your jewellry and get into the nice shower with many other people, in Poland, just go ahead. No need to question authority -ever.

PS exfocx - nice to see a troll in action ;-)

Sorry Faman - I'll leave this topic now ;-) Back to the topic ;-)

[cxorcist]

No, you used yr 9 maths at most. You're another example of the old pilot joke about God.
The math is easy. Statistical application is hard. Notice how none of the lockdown proponents show any math at all. Coincidence?

[Dragon Pacific]

Meanwhile, when do I have to drop my drawers?

01Sep or a bit later than that, any ppRUMOURS?

We’ll see the new contract in the next couple of weeks with the choice of sign and stay, or take three months notice and go. Everyone on CoS 20/21. Expat housing phased out over two years for those already on approved leases or mortgage; they can’t afford to have too many STCs disappear immediately. That will give them the numbers to work with for the restructuring to be announced Q4.
All bases closed and they can chose whether to come to HK on CoS 20/21 or not.
It is all going to look very different by Christmas and unrecognizable by CNY.

[AllWobbly]

We’ll see the new contract in the next couple of weeks with the choice of sign and stay, or take three months notice and go. Everyone on CoS 20/21. Expat housing phased out over two years for those already on approved leases or mortgage; they can’t afford to have too many STCs disappear immediately. That will give them the numbers to work with for the restructuring to be announced Q4.
All bases closed and they can chose whether to come to HK on CoS 20/21 or not.
It is all going to look very different by Christmas and unrecognizable by CNY.

If so it’s goodbye from me. The one thing sls/slv has done for me is make me realise how much I dislike the job. A strange revelation as before I thought I really enjoyed it.

[raven11]

Mngmt Mole’s last post summed it up best, and is worth re-posting:

Well, that outcome was solely due to Sweden having a courageous, sensible and focused leadership. Not the headline seeking careerists who inhabit most western Governments. We've destroyed a decade of economic growth in 5 months, allowed craven politicians to become authoritarian despots and harmed and killed millions through economic distress and poverty of health care (think of the other illnesses that haven't been treated over the past half year, involving millions of people worldwide...cancers, heart disease etc..). This will prove historically to have been the greatest and most tragic farce in modern human existence. Nothing short of an abomination and outrage.

[Farman Biplane]

So, no rumours about the company conducting itself iaw the agreed contracts and using reverse seniority redundancy to solve the issue?

[Curry Lamb]

No news is good news :}

[CaptainProp]

Jriv - the irony is that due to the USA's utterly inept management of the virus they will very likely reach a significant level of herd immunity very soon and just like in large parts of Europe the death rates will most likely reduce to almost nothing. Let's hope this is true - and a lot of data now point that way.

If this turns out to be the case - and we will know within the next month or two - then the worst is over and in the EU and the USA life will quickly get back to normal with or without a vaccine.

However HKG, Aus and NZ have painted themselves into a corner with their zero infection policy. And we will be stuck waiting for a vaccine for another year while the western world gets on with life. And their airlines will be flying while cx and quantas slowly go bankrupt.

First 2, possibly 3, vaccines will get approvals somewhere around November/December this year.

CP

[MENELAUS]

No news is good news :}

Hmm. Unlikely. They’ll rip up every agreement if they feel they have to. Just like every other organization has done. And who’ll stop them ?

[exfocx]

The math is easy. Statistical application is hard. Notice how none of the lockdown proponents show any math at all. Coincidence?

Last time I looked stats were maths and I'm just guessing, but I'd have thought the application is the nuts and blots of it! I doubt there is a pilot here who'd have any idea of how to apply the stats for something like this, let alone where to get the raw data from. You are a perfect example of the know it all pilot! No one knows your job, but your an expert on all other fields. You must be deserving of a 3rd flr office.

[White Knight]

LOL I love how so many aviators are also now pathogen experts and infectious disease epidemiologists, in addition to being financial advisors and economists.


It's not a case of us being 'pathogen experts and infectious disease epidemiologists' or 'financial advisors and economists'. Rather it's seeing the BS with which this virus is being handled... The facts which we can all read show that the actual deaths from Covid are FAR LESS than these epidemiologists predicted and that several economies have had there GDPs plummet. The UK for example is down 20% since the beginning of the year!

Some of you want to be sucked in? Feel free...

[exfocx]

It's not a case of us being 'pathogen experts and infectious disease epidemiologists' or 'financial advisors and economists'. Rather it's seeing the BS with which this virus is being handled... The facts which we can all read show that the actual deaths from Covid are FAR LESS than these epidemiologists predicted and that several economies have had there GDPs plummet. The UK for example is down 20% since the beginning of the year!

Some of you want to be sucked in? Feel free...

The UK is down 20% because they stuffed their response. We've had WA, NT, SA, TAS & QLD locked down for some months with most of them just opening up recently, and Australia's GDP impacted nowhere near as much.

Tell me, how do you see the BS when you have no expertise in any fields involved?

[exfocx]

So are you saying 3- 5.5 times as many people have died in Sweden than normal? Or are you saying that the deaths attributable to covid are 3-5.5times their neighbours? Look at my US analysis – you will see that in the US the total number of covid deaths is well inside the ‘venn’ diagram for deaths due to the prevailing co-morbities. Your assertion implies unique and additional deaths – when in fact they could simply be displacement deaths. Time will tell. Yes Sweden apparently trades – so because every other country has shut down, they have been affected economically.
[/QUOTE]

According to what I've read, they're referring to 3 to 5.5 times as many cv19 deaths. Using a death rate Vs pop, Sweden is doing worse than the US.

Btw, your last sentence doesn't make sense. Sweden has had far higher cv19 deaths than the other Nordic countries, that face the SAME trade issues, so Sweden traded off a non existent economic return by "remaining open" for a REAL higher death rate. How do you explain that?

[cxorcist]

According to what I've read,
That’s very likely your problem. If what your reading begins with the header CNN, BBC, or similar; then you are simply gulping up propaganda.

[Piet Lood]

Don’t know if anyone remembers, but the UK also had a little issue called “Brexit”.
Must be nice for Boris to blame the 20% downturn on COVID.
Also, he wants you all to go on a diet, since he himself lost a lot of weight.
I believe his dieting plan is also called COVID. Pretty effective and useful “thing”, COVID, in more ways than one.
As a sidenote: I love the fact that his life was saved by an immigrant.

[Slasher1]

I'd love to see the headlines downline if we'd ascribed to this WuFlu madness through known history.

"Even in 2020, the area west of Pittsburgh remains largely unexplored. Early in the 19th century an expedition was planned under then-president Jefferson for Captain Meriwether Lewis and Lt. William Clark; however, congress later forced the cancellation of the journey because thirty people in New York had developed rheumatism. Out of an abundance of caution, it was never accomplished."

[0ztranaut]

That’s very likely your problem. If what your reading begins with the header CNN, BBC, or similar; then you are simply gulping up propaganda.

You need to hear the real news from Fox or Breitbart, or even better Q’Anon

[Freehills]

You need to hear the real news from Fox or Breitbart, or even better Q’Anon

Nah, Faux and Breitbart are still woke news. Alex Jones and Qanon, they tell it how it is!

[Fly747]

We’ll see the new contract in the next couple of weeks with the choice of sign and stay, or take three months notice and go. Everyone on CoS 20/21. Expat housing phased out over two years for those already on approved leases or mortgage; they can’t afford to have too many STCs disappear immediately. That will give them the numbers to work with for the restructuring to be announced Q4.
All bases closed and they can chose whether to come to HK on CoS 20/21 or not.
It is all going to look very different by Christmas and unrecognizable by CNY.

My guess is they’ll only close pax bases, Anchorage will be kept, it is currently far busier than HK.
Another guess is that they’ll merge the seniority of all four of the Group airlines which will give more flexibility in the coming bloodbath/restructuring.

[Angel 8]

My guess is they’ll only close pax bases, Anchorage will be kept, it is currently far busier than HK.
Another guess is that they’ll merge the seniority of all four of the Group airlines which will give more flexibility in the coming bloodbath/restructuring.

Closing a base would cost 6 months salary, changing terms and conditions would cost 3 months salary (if AOA consent)
Closing bases would result in the loss of more pilots than the T&C’s because people would rather stay employed at their home base, while a lot of people don’t want to re-locate to HKG especially with family.

[LLLQNH]

Closing bases would result in the loss of more pilots than the T&C’s because people would rather stay employed at their home base, while a lot of people don’t want to re-locate to HKG especially with family.

Dont you think that would be the idea? Management would probably be counting on it, it would avoid involuntary redundancies & they might also be able to argue that since the offer of a position in HKG was made it isn't even a voluntary redundancy and not pay 6 months. Many people probably wouldn't want to return or re-locate to Hong Kong, sadly given the state of the world doubt most wont have much choice.

[SloppyJoe]

You think a significant number of based pilots would resign! I very much doubt it, other than those close to retirement I expect every single pilot will return to HKG. It would be utter madness not to, given the current job prospects out there. 3-4 years down the line when aviation picks up, many of those who were based would be leaving for new jobs closer to home.

[Farman Biplane]

Somehow I do not think HK pilot numbers will be the limiting factor or driving force behind the restructure!
When required, a reduction in headcount will be the result of the new size/structure of the CX group.
Why would pax bases close and not freighter bases?

[Pearly White]

Jriv - the irony is that due to the USA's utterly inept management of the virus they will very likely reach a significant level of herd immunity very soon and just like in large parts of Europe the death rates will most likely reduce to almost nothing. Let's hope this is true - and a lot of data now point that way.

If this turns out to be the case - and we will know within the next month or two - then the worst is over and in the EU and the USA life will quickly get back to normal with or without a vaccine.

However HKG, Aus and NZ have painted themselves into a corner with their zero infection policy. And we will be stuck waiting for a vaccine for another year while the western world gets on with life. And their airlines will be flying while cx and quantas slowly go bankrupt.
What's the evidence for herd immunity? Medical experts I've heard talking about it seem to think post-infection antibodies have a half-life of around six weeks. So any post-infection immunity would be short-lived, assuming it even works for any mutated virus encountered a second time around.

[JMock]

What's the evidence for herd immunity? Medical experts I've heard talking about it seem to think post-infection antibodies have a half-life of around six weeks. So any post-infection immunity would be short-lived, assuming it even works for any mutated virus encountered a second time around.



From Elaine Stevenson, Australian Infectious Disease Epidemiologist, who is aghast by the Swedish approach:

“Herd immunity is a concept which only applies to vaccine preventable diseases as a measure of program efficacy.

It does not apply to the situation that we are currently in vis a vis COVID-19

We do not have enough follow up on the virus to be anything other than extremely cautious”.

[mngmt mole]

Well, I always assume the Australian expert must be correct.

[exfocx]

Well, I always assume the Australian expert must be correct.

Well, if the option is to accept a non expert such as yourself, yes.

[mngmt mole]

You're Australian...you must be correct. See how that works. All kidding aside, there are just as many experts that disagree with your expert...the main point being we've destroyed our societies and economies for something that will prove to have been barely more potent than the regular flu. Idiocy on a grand scale.

[Gordomac]

Never liked the toungue in cheek handbagging that you fellas thrive upon but admit to being greatly humoured by it until I got biffed in the ollies a little to personally, a while back. but, mngmt mole, your comment on the CV-19 hoohaa displaying "Idiocy on a grand scale" is a comment I I totally support. Well said.

[exfocx]

You're Australian...you must be correct. See how that works. All kidding aside, there are just as many experts that disagree with your expert...the main point being we've destroyed our societies and economies for something that will prove to have been barely more potent than the regular flu. Idiocy on a grand scale.

Ya can't make this stuff up! Quoting you: "there are just as many experts that disagree with your expert." and then you say this "Idiocy on a grand scale", so the experts disagree, yet YOU say that!

I'd have to agree on that comment, but directed elsewhere.

[Shoebox]

The whole pandemic is probably just an excuse to reset the economic system. Since 1971 when the USD was taken off the Gold standard by President Nixon, the dollar has become nothing but a printed piece of paper. Decades of printing and accumulation of global debt has got to end somewhere. Covid is the perfect excuse now to get the human population in desperation so that the powers that be can change up the system. What that system will be is the million dollar question. Now I am not denying that Covid-19 is a fake disease but the whole shut down of the global economy for a disease which has taken the lives of 3.4% of those infected is an over reaction. Notwithstanding that most of those who sadly die are old and/or frail; which would be at a higher risk of dying from flu related illnesses anyway.

I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist but for me i'll be hesitant to let them inject me with their vaccine (yes the one that only took a few months to get into the advanced phase of testing). But what choice do we have when they would exclude us from society if we don't comply with annual injections. Don't quite know where i am going with this post but just wanted to say the world is Royally :mad:ed. Stay healthy and fly safe boys n gals. :ok:

[Slasher1]

The whole pandemic is probably just an excuse to reset the economic system. Since 1971 when the USD was taken off the Gold standard by President Nixon, the dollar has become nothing but a printed piece of paper. Decades of printing and accumulation of global debt has got to end somewhere. Covid is the perfect excuse now to get the human population in desperation so that the powers that be can change up the system. What that system will be is the million dollar question. Now I am not denying that Covid-19 is a fake disease but the whole shut down of the global economy for a disease which has taken the lives of 3.4% of those infected is an over reaction. Notwithstanding that most of those who sadly die are old and/or frail; which would be at a higher risk of dying from flu related illnesses anyway.

I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist but for me i'll be hesitant to let them inject me with their vaccine (yes the one that only took a few months to get into the advanced phase of testing). But what choice do we have when they would exclude us from society if we don't comply with annual injections. Don't quite know where i am going with this post but just wanted to say the world is Royally :mad:ed. Stay healthy and fly safe boys n gals. :ok:

Things sure are turning out that way; I think it's more opportunistic exploitation by statists than having some grand plan (and I can't fathom them either being smart or competent enough to orchestrate such a thing). But wide fractions of capital markets have been effectively nationalized with draconian state control over movement as well as which businesses are 'allowed' to operate. Along with crazy indoctrination rituals dehumanizing people and creating faceless droids which has done nothing to mitigate the disease.

[exfocx]

What really worries me isn't cv19, we'll eventually either get a vaccine or work our way around it, while protecting those who are more vulnerable and limiting the damage it appears to do health wise. But the continued rise of conspiracy theories, both medical like cv19, G5 etc, worry me. How do people who consider themselves intelligent / educated/ critical thinking go down this path? For me it certainly debunks the saying about a uni degree teaching CT, imo, we are controlled by our reactive psychology more so than any critical judgement.

The on top of that, we get the financial ones. How the hell anyone connects the financial response that's happening to world gov / control, with me, is mind boggling. Read any of the articles on what's happening and it's large corporations that are benefitting just as they did through the GFC. In Australia they're abusing the Job Keeper payments, making increased profits off it, while paying out massive div in places and bonuses to execs etc. And just like during the GFC the tax payer will foot the bill.

No conspircay, no Rothschilds or Bill Gates bs etc, and it's written about in the papers everyday. Our political system has been bought by donations to our political parties, so much so there is not a lot that distinguishes them, meanwhile we get this conspiracy bs on a daily basis while political control is being bought out right in front of us.

[Landflap]

Gosh, the pandemic and lock-down is turning you CX bods into softies ! Regularly drop into Fragrant Harbour (well, every day during lock-down) for my comic start to the day watching you guys turn everything into an ugly, personal, street brawl. But now, we are getting some pretty sensible offerings.Of course it is a gigantic control issue to reset the world stage in many areas .Many of us take that reasoned view to different extents but it is encouraging to see such views emerging from the Harbour. Only good wishes to all in these life altering times.

[Curry Lamb]

The china virus is old news already, these clowns are about to trigger WW3, and it's a bit too close to my doorstep!

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3098972/chinese-military-launches-two-missiles-south-china-sea-warning

[Slasher1]

The china virus is old news already, these clowns are about to trigger WW3, and it's a bit too close to my doorstep!

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3098972/chinese-military-launches-two-missiles-south-china-sea-warning

Yeah....I like the part of the propaganda where it says a U2 entered a self-declared China 'no fly zone' (over international waters and airspace) 'without permission.'

News to the ChiComms. They don't need your 'permission.'

[badge42]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53927980

How’s the new ‘Two Countries, One System’ paradigm working out for Cathay?

[lucille]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53927980

How’s the new ‘Two Countries, One System’ paradigm working out for Cathay?

How is that news article even remotely believable? Chinese airlines ditched thousands of expat pilots, to the best of anyone’s knowledge none (or very few) have returned. This begs the question - how are they going to crew all those flights?

[Curry Lamb]

This begs the question - how are they going to crew all those flights?

Are you saying this is the next pilot shortage, the big one everyone is waiting for? Not judging, you could be onto something, fast forward 2-3 years from now, and the tables could very well be turned.
I can see Augustus on his knees, begging :ok:

[Fly747]

How is that news article even remotely believable? Chinese airlines ditched thousands of expat pilots, to the best of anyone’s knowledge none (or very few) have returned. This begs the question - how are they going to crew all those flights?

Very believable, didn’t the expat pilots mainly do international flights?

[badge42]

I happen to believe there’s an element of truth in that article. Have a quick look at Flightradar24. They’re obviously crewing those flights somehow.

It may not be possible to discern how many passengers are actually being carried or how much they are paying for their tickets, but it is possible to see that there has been something of a rebound in domestic traffic. The rise in pollution levels tells me the World’s Factory is grinding back to life and business is beginning to pick up. Meanwhile Cathay is, not technically, but effectively excluded from it’s domestic market. Sad. :confused:

[SabrinaSenior]

Numbers being thrown around are between 500 to 1600.

If you’re on the bottom of the seniority list, prepare.

Targeting long haul flying reduction of >60% until March 2021.

[Curry Lamb]

Numbers being thrown around are between 500 to 1600.

If you’re on the bottom of the seniority list, prepare.

Targeting long haul flying reduction of >60% until March 2021.

My guess (which is as good/bad as anyones), is 23% on the Barbie Jet and 7% Scarebus.

HOLD ON TO YOUR UNDERPANTS AND PANTIES

[AllWobbly]

Numbers being thrown around are between 500 to 1600.

If you’re on the bottom of the seniority list, prepare.

Targeting long haul flying reduction of >60% until March 2021.

In that case why are they still training cadets?

[AllWobbly]

Numbers being thrown around are between 500 to 1600.

If you’re on the bottom of the seniority list, prepare.

Targeting long haul flying reduction of >60% until March 2021.

In that case why are they still training cadets?

[Progress Wanchai]

In that case why are they still training cadets?

Because there is a process.

Senior management are designing what they believe is the right structure of the company.
Upon the completion of that process the board will be informed and will debate the merits or otherwise of such a restructure.
Once the board makes a decision the HKEX will be informed and trading in company shares halted until the market can be briefed (as the public are part owners of the company),

Then and only then will the training department be given their new instructions. Rightly or wrongly until then the ship will continue to sail straight ahead.

I’m only speculating but my guess is any leaked “plans” will be coming from the myriad of outside lawyers working with senior management.

[cxorcist]

With respect, I don’t think it takes notification of the HKEX to stop hiring and training new joiners. That doesn’t make any sense, but I think you are generally correct about there being a process that takes (too much) time to unfold.

Unfortunately, CX has, once again, proven itself very inflexible and without vision. Of course, anyone here for longer than a few years knows that. Think fuel hedging, rostering, branding, product differentiation, etc.

[krismiler]

My guess (which is as good/bad as anyones), is 23% on the Barbie Jet and 7% Scarebus.

So opposite to EK where the Airbus fleet bore the brunt of the retrenchments. I’ll bet everyone is glad that CX didn’t order the A380 and that they aren’t on it.

[hyg]

In that case why are they still training cadets?
you mean in Adelaide? the ones that have finished and returned to HK have been basically ignored by the company.... heard that there are like 60-70 of them by now

[AllWobbly]

you mean in Adelaide? the ones that have finished and returned to HK have been basically ignored by the company.... heard that there are like 60-70 of them by now

Well I was in the FTC the other day and was introduced to a couple of them doing sim.

[wongsuzie]

for what its worth here is some good news:

Very few aircrew and medical professionals were/is infected by the virus.

[crwkunt roll]

"If the industry is expected to recover ~2023/24 why accept anything other than temporary changes to your contract?"
Why accept any reductions in contracts and/or new inferior contracts at all when the industry was booming?

[Landflap]

Some of you chaps indicating alternative views and sites might find SACHA STONE interesting. Just caught him on Utube conducting a tripartite discussion. Worthy viewpoints.

[Curry Lamb]

"If the industry is expected to recover ~2023/24 why accept anything other than temporary changes to your contract?"
Why accept any reductions in contracts and/or new inferior contracts at all when the industry was booming?

Maybe because the hand that feeds you (scraps), knows that there are thousand of qualified pilots who are ready to replace you, on laughable COS, when the industry recovers.

If you don't like the permanent changes, or the new CosCov20 contract on 1 October, you always have the option to drag them to court. The AOA has a very reputable, world class lawyer firm, top notch :}

[seventy-seven]

Quantas?
Who are they?

[simonlake17]

Well I was in the FTC the other day and was introduced to a couple of them doing sim.

You are clearly confused with engineering training, no new ab initio except conversion 777/747

[AllWobbly]

You are clearly confused with engineering training, no new ab initio except conversion 777/747

Yeah right. Apart from the fact that they were just back from Adelaide

[Sam Ting Wong]

Only in Cathay you will find employees complaining about ongoing recruitment and no layoffs. Unbelievable :-)

[fly1981]

Only in Cathay you will find employees complaining about ongoing recruitment and no layoffs. Unbelievable :-)

my sentiments exactly...

[doolay]

It seems to be more about ongoing recruitment while the airline is grossly overstaffed due to a worldwide pandemic.

We are also told weekly in updates how important it is to cut costs, and keep expenditure down. We all know the big hammer is coming, it's just a matter of when, so I think it is a valid question...why are they still training SOs when we are overstaffed by hundreds if not thousands of pilots?

[Porterboy]

It seems to be more about ongoing recruitment while the airline is grossly overstaffed due to a worldwide pandemic.

We are also told weekly in updates how important it is to cut costs, and keep expenditure down. We all know the big hammer is coming, it's just a matter of when, so I think it is a valid question...why are they still training SOs when we are overstaffed by hundreds if not thousands of pilots?
All of us on the delayed ADL advanced entry courses from early spring were just told our offers are rescinded, so if there’s any courses still happening, those are the cadets.

[cxorcist]

my sentiments exactly...
Uh, excuse me, but have you taken a look around HKIA lately? It’s survival mode. There are literally scores upon scores of multi-million dollar aircraft taped up in a losing battle against the corrosive salt water in the air. And you’re thinking what? Money grows on trees? Socialism works? Pay should continue to be rendered for no work? For how long?

I know many of you are fresh out of the utopian universities and public school systems where ideologues brainwashed you about the merits of Marxism in “civics” classes. But hopefully you also took history and realized that every single nation that has tried such a system has failed, and that this will never change unless you can eliminate thousands of years of genetically coded human nature from the equation.

Do you think it is somehow different for corporations? Corporations with real balance sheets. Corporations that cannot print money. Corporations that have to pay back their loans. Corporations that are accountable to their shareholders and, ideally, their employees. The world is littered with the remains of businesses that have tried to defy the tenets of capitalism.

I would rather not see Cathay Pacific Airways join the likes of PanAm, Braniff, Eastern, TWA, British Midlands, South African Airways, etc. I’m sorry that some of you will have to lose your jobs. Ideally, everything would have kept plugging along the way it was before China released its scourge upon the earth and nations around the globe decided it was best to destroy the global economy long term.

A miracle cure vaccine isn’t going to wipe this virus off the planet for many years. It’s going to have to run it’s course, killing many along the way; and only slowed and prolonged, not stopped, by the lockdowns. It might be back to Mom and Dad’s place for a bit, for those of you not already there. With luck, you will have a job to return to someday. Even better, you will leave this dead end industry and do something more useful and rewarding. Then maybe, you won’t have to fly with old farts like me and hate us on your SM. That’s not healthy for anyone.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Marxism in Hong Kong, now that's funny :-)))

PS I rather would tread lightly in that department, your beloved capitalism might turn out not to be on your side these days..

[cxorcist]

Marxism in Hong Kong, now that's funny :-)))

PS I rather would tread lightly in that department, your beloved capitalism might turn out not to be on your side these days..
You took a pass on the central themes of my post. I never said HK was Marxist or in danger of becoming so, as Mainland China isn’t actually communist or Marxist. They are an autocratic oligarchy practicing crony capitalism with military and statist integration fostering a dystopian society.

The central tenets of my post apply Marxism to personal preferences and desired behaviors. This notion that CX can simply afford to keep paying 3500 pilots and well over ten thousand flight attendants reflect unrealistic views of finance. I argue that those stem from leftist academia upon our youth.

If you want to dispute those assertions, feel free, but don’t just chuck a spear and run away.

[veritas777]

Well guess what, take a look at Emirates, the supposed beacon of capitalism, and what happened to their pilots. Overnight thousands of pilots were turfed, no not under LIFO (haha, funny one), but because they were on the wrong fleet, cost too much, took on too much fuel, etc

It seems like you are deluded enough right now to think that somehow such a reduction would be sure to spare you. Be careful of what you wish for.

[cxorcist]

Well guess what, take a look at Emirates, the supposed beacon of capitalism, and what happened to their pilots. Overnight thousands of pilots were turfed, no not under LIFO (haha, funny one), but because they were on the wrong fleet, cost too much, took on too much fuel, etc

It seems like you are deluded enough right now to think that somehow such a reduction would be sure to spare you. Be careful of what you wish for.
This is the Fragrant Harbour forum. Pilots here work for CX and the other HK based airlines. I’m not sure what relevance EK or BA or any other carriers have here.

[veritas777]

This is a global situation and a global industry. What other carriers are doing might just be what we're doing next. Especially as you clearly point out, saving money is the key.

[LLLQNH]

This is a global situation and a global industry. What other carriers are doing might just be what we're doing next. Especially as you clearly point out, saving money is the key.

A lot of the largest airlines in the world have followed the principal of LIFO! American, United, Air Canada, Delta and Air NZ to name just a few.

So I agree completely what other airlines are doing might be what we are doing next, and the fact the lions share of the industry has followed the LIFO principal as that's what was in their contracts as is in ours, I would be willing to wager a guess that we will also follow the LIFO principal! I see no reason why the retrenchments will not come in reverse seniority order as is written and agreed. Everything is based around seniority!

If not then let's plan on offering upgrades to people based on what fleet they are on or their attendance over the years, oh even better I'll take that Brisbane base and have Christmas off every year thanks, because I didn't call sick for any 797/798 turnarounds! Not likely....

[bm330]

If not then let's plan on offering upgrades to people based on what fleet they are on or their attendance over the years, oh even better I'll take that Brisbane base and have Christmas off every year thanks, because I didn't call sick for any 797/798 turnarounds! Not likely....

And that is exactly the point. If no LIFO then where is the line? Only upgrade on type? No upgrades for anyone who's been on sick leave? No bases for anyone on COS18? Only trainers get ARAPA?

If Cathay is allowed to ignore part of your contract, they can will ignore all of it.

[Sam Ting Wong]

You took a pass on the central themes of my post. I never said HK was Marxist or in danger of becoming so, as Mainland China isn’t actually communist or Marxist. They are an autocratic oligarchy practicing crony capitalism with military and statist integration fostering a dystopian society.

The central tenets of my post apply Marxism to personal preferences and desired behaviors. This notion that CX can simply afford to keep paying 3500 pilots and well over ten thousand flight attendants reflect unrealistic views of finance. I argue that those stem from leftist academia upon our youth.

If you want to dispute those assertions, feel free, but don’t just chuck a spear and run away.

I don't see where you are going with this.
Where does "Marxism" come into play?

First of all, all decisions regarding employment or recruitment numbers are taken by a pure capitalist corporation based in one of the most libertarian and free market cities in the world.

Then of course every employee hopes that if there will be layoffs it won't be him or her, nothing to do with an alleged "marxist" attitude. Pure self-preservation.

And which university in Hong Kong do you think is "marxist" anyway? Yes, I actually agree with you, there might be a disproportionate post-modern influence in academia in some humanity faculties, at least in the western hemisphere (although the likes of Jordan Peterson are frankly a bit obsessed with this idea, universities were always progressive).

But none of our recruits has been anywhere near these institutions, nor have I met a lot of left-of-centre colleagues in the first place, regardless of age and seniority. The vast majority of us has conservative political views, or is even extreme libertarian ( but of course happily accept a bail out by the dreaded state when it suits us :-).Your claim of wide-spread marxism looks more like a shot in the dark to me.

I also would advise against your repeated stereo-typical labelling of an entire generation. Please remind yourself that this is really a recurring psychological phenomenom in human history. Every generation looks down on the next one for some reason, usually claiming the young are "too weak" or "spoiled". It is probably a defense mechanism of the aging human psyche, we should resist falling into that trap.The kids are alright.

Lastly, you seem to assume that in a proper functioning capitalist and marxist-free environment the senior employees should be protected. Well, will see about that.

[veritas777]

A lot of the largest airlines in the world have followed the principal of LIFO! American, United, Air Canada, Delta and Air NZ to name just a few.

You've named all North American airlines bar one, where the unions have actual power and follow through. You won't see pilots on 5+ different contracts flying the same airplane at any of those, for a start.

Meanwhile take a look at Virgin Atlantic that just turfed all 747 pilots with any consideration for LIFO. I'll be willing to bet which one we're more similar to.

and the fact the lions share of the industry has followed the LIFO principal as that's what was in their contracts as is in ours, I would be willing to wager a guess that we will also follow the LIFO principal!

And I would wager that you are wrong for the reasons listed above, primarily being that we are not a North American carrier with North American contract and union representation.

And as cxorcist very astutely points out, CX is in survival mode. Keeping a Cat D'ed 777 FO on full ARAPA and spending hundreds of thousands in conversion costs to the A350 or 747, when a DEFO on COS18 could do the same (or I'd bet, better) job, wouldn't be a very financially smart move wouldn't it now. Again, being careful what one wishes for might be a smart move.

[cxorcist]

“Lastly, you seem to assume that in a proper functioning capitalist and marxist-free environment the senior employees should be protected. Well, will see about that.” - STW

Indeed we will, and then everyone will know if CX is an airline where a true pilot career is possible or if it will be merely another Chinese contract gig. It seems many on here are hoping for the latter, unaware that it is to their own extreme detriment and peril to watch CX violate its own contracts. As the saying goes, you can’t fix stupid! Maybe that’s why my generation looks down upon this new one. Lots of stupidity...

[Sam Ting Wong]

But how is it stupid to hope not getting laid-off ? And why should Cathay aspire to be " an airline where a true pilot career is possible" ( aka grandfathering expensive expats)? In your philosophy, isn't it all only about making money and balance sheets?

In my opinion there is a major flaw in your argument. On the one hand you propose a free capitalist market without "socialist" restrictions, and on the other hand you ask for protection of your own position. But the two concepts don't go together. If you reject categorically "leftist" political views, as you have repeatedly, you need to accept this goes both ways. If the table turns, then Smith's invisible hand, that capitalists love so much, this time might form a fist and hit you where it hurts. And no, I certainly don't hope for that, I have the same contract as you after all.

[exfocx]

........Phiisophical claptrap removed.....
The central tenets of my post apply Marxism to personal preferences and desired behaviors. This notion that CX can simply afford to keep paying 3500 pilots and well over ten thousand flight attendants reflect unrealistic views of finance. I argue that those stem from leftist academia upon our youth.

If you want to dispute those assertions, feel free, but don’t just chuck a spear and run away.

What a load of crap, can you provide any evidence that your so called "leftist academia" believe such balderdash? No, I thought so, more likely just a reflection of your far rightish claptrap beliefs.

[mngmt mole]

STW. There is a difference between "hoping to not get laid off"...and understanding that at certain times it is necessary to protect the value of the career itself. You are aware of that of course.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Accepting to be laid off to preserve the value of the career.. haha, brilliant :-)))

[exfocx]

Airline pilots never cease to amaze me with their rw capitalist beliefs, the cognitive dissonance is astounding. We have a situation where the airlines are bleeding ****loads of money with long term consequences and cxorist believes in a union leftist FOFO principal. Nowhere in the commercial world would that stand, not in finance, law, accounting or, ****, anywhere but a trade union workshop floor style, workplace.

The likes of cxorist want all the rw claptrap low taxes etc while insisting on the privileges of a tradesperson.

[mngmt mole]

I don't think even you are that thick STW. If the company could force pay cuts through (which we all know would take years to recoup...if ever) to subsidize unneeded crew, the value of the career would be correspondingly reduced, most likely permanently. It's not about the "individual" career that I was referring to, but the overall value of the career of pilot itself (such as Fedex FO's making over $50K usd /mo...yes, that is an FO). You of course know exactly what I was referring to....but you seem to prefer to argue for the sake of it.

[mngmt mole]

Airline pilots never cease to amaze me with their rw capitalist beliefs, the cognitive dissonance is astounding. We have a situation where the airlines are bleeding ****loads of money with long term consequences and cxorist believes in a union leftist FOFO principal. Nowhere in the commercial world would that stand, not in finance, law, accounting or, ****, anywhere but a trade union workshop floor style, workplace.

The likes of cxorist want all the rw claptrap low taxes etc while insisting on the privileges of a tradesperson.

Couldn't agree more. The airline is bleeding billions, and has hundreds if not over a 1000 pilots too many. Therefore, furlough the required number, as per the contract. That is nothing to do with "union workshop style", and everything to do with what is written in the contract (otherwise, why bother with any contract at all?).

[Memorylapse]

Couldn't agree more. The airline is bleeding billions, and has hundreds if not over a 1000 pilots too many. Therefore, furlough the required number, as per the contract. That is nothing to do with "union workshop style", and everything to do with what is written in the contract (otherwise, why bother with any contract at all?).

I agree - but how long for do you think CX has a 1000 pilots to many? Please not that I am not arguing with you, I am just asking a question. Yes, they have too many pilots now, but somewhere in 2021 some travel will start, very slowly though. 2022/3 I think we will be busy (that is just my opinion).

[cxorcist]

Accepting to be laid off to preserve the value of the career.. haha, brilliant :-)))
That’s exactly right STW! If CX breaks the LIFO contracts it has now, why would anyone be so stupid as to believe them going forward? Even facing a furlough, pilots with an inkling of sense should want an employer with enough integrity to honor their contracts. Otherwise, why would anyone sign one of these contracts and want to work for CX? Perhaps CX thinks they can prey on the young, dumb, and inexperienced indefinitely. This thread certainly makes a case for that.

[cxorcist]

The likes of cxorist want all the rw claptrap low taxes etc while insisting on the privileges of a tradesperson.
Are low taxes antithetical to being a tradesperson? Is honoring a contract and seniority antithetical to the “right wing”?

The public school system really did a number on you exfocx!

[cxorcist]

But how is it stupid to hope not getting laid-off ? And why should Cathay aspire to be " an airline where a true pilot career is possible" ( aka grandfathering expensive expats)? In your philosophy, isn't it all only about making money and balance sheets?

In my opinion there is a major flaw in your argument. On the one hand you propose a free capitalist market without "socialist" restrictions, and on the other hand you ask for protection of your own position. But the two concepts don't go together. If you reject categorically "leftist" political views, as you have repeatedly, you need to accept this goes both ways. If the table turns, then Smith's invisible hand, that capitalists love so much, this time might form a fist and hit you where it hurts. And no, I certainly don't hope for that, I have the same contract as you after all.
Is it a socialist tenet that contracts be respected and a capitalist tenet that contracts be broken? Quite the opposite imo. Capitalists sign contracts with their skilled labor to secure their services over the long term. Socialists don’t need to do this. The government determines wages, benefits, changes, etc.

Autocrats far prefer socialism to true capitalism because, for them, it’s all about controlling the people (laborers). Capitalism within an open economy gives free movement to labor, which is why corporations sign long term contracts to secure its labor.

You public school propogandized really, really need to put your thinking caps on...

[exfocx]

Are low taxes antithetical to being a tradesperson? Is honoring a contract and seniority antithetical to the “right wing”?

The public school system really did a number on you exfocx!

You call it a contract, everywhere else it's called an award, like all trades / low-semi - skilled work etc. Tell me which profession like Law, Accounting, Engineering, Finance etc where you have a mass contract? No one in any other PROFESSIONAL field would get that. They would look at the revenue you generate (as a lawyer / accountant etc) and in your circumstances the revenue of a 15 yr CA compared to a 5 yr CA is the same. Then in that case the most expensive is gone. You talk to any employee somewhere like BHP / RIO and see if the engineers or hydrologists are made redundant on LIFO.

Other than for pilots there are is no SENORITY. Management will decide who goes and who stays and LIFO.......lololol..... they've never heard of it.

[volare_737]

Lol - some pilots always think there are more special than the rest of the world !!!!!

[Memorylapse]

Lol - some pilots always think there are more special than the rest of the world !!!!!

If you could use the correct grammar, maybe all of us could understand what you are saying. By the look of it, you would fit the COS18 profile perfectly! Get that CV in ASAP!

[exfocx]

If you could use the correct grammar, maybe all of us could understand what you are saying. By the look of it, you would fit the COS18 profile perfectly! Get that CV in ASAP!

Really? Chances are Volare 737 speaks more than one language, so he may have made an error in grammar, or he just missed a spelling mistake from thinking to typing, which you see a lot. Now, how many languages do you speak or write?


Btw, I do think flying is different for a number of reasons (seniority), but it just ****s me to tears when I see rw pilots who take what is an organised labour position when it suits them.

[Sam Ting Wong]

I really like it when they demand a bail out by the government

[Memorylapse]

but it just ****s me to tears when I see rw pilots who take what is an organised labour position when it suits them.

I see you also really excelled at school.

[volare_737]

If you could use the correct grammar, maybe all of us could understand what you are saying. By the look of it, you would fit the COS18 profile perfectly! Get that CV in ASAP!

Sorry Man !!! Some of us might not be so serious to even check what we are writing !!! I will try to get to your level one day !!!!

[Sam Ting Wong]

I see you also really excelled at school.

Nobody in here excelled at school, You wouldn't be in this line of work if you had :-))

[Memorylapse]

Sorry Man !!! Some of us might not be so serious to even check what we are writing !!! I will try to get to your level one day !!!!

You could try, but good luck! They really like people who don't take things serious on these COS18 contracts, you would fit in well. How does that saying go again... You pay peanuts, expect to get... Oh dear can't remember the rest, but anyway!

[volare_737]

Nobody in here excelled at school, You wouldn't be in this line of work if you had.

Exactly !!! Some of those guys on here should get a real job and then talk !!!!

[Memorylapse]

Exactly !!! Some of those guys on here should get a real job and then talk !!!!

OK !!! I will talk to those guys OK !!! Maybe all of people can get real job !!! I let u know !!

[volare_737]

OK !!! I will talk to those guys OK !!! Maybe all of people can get real job !!! I let u know !!

Perfecto !!!!!

[cxorcist]

Nobody in here excelled at school, You wouldn't be in this line of work if you had :-))
Actually, I did quite well at an excellent university and could have taken a number of jobs in finance (investment banking, consulting, venture capital) that probably would have brought me back to uni for an MBA and/or JD. I chose to serve my country in the military out of a sense of duty and a passion for aviation. I left the military after enough deployments to the desert and started an airline career (mistake).

Perhaps our backgrounds (upbringing and schooling) is why I see things so differently from “your” generation. Cheap cadets pilots with little self respect or sense of worth have taken a once proud career and denigrated it, as was intended by cynical employers that prefer robots over a “Sully” and then brag about their safety focus.

In economics, we call this late stage capitalism when too many goods and services are relegated to commodities (widgets), and input costs are excessively reduced such that the quality of the products are compromised. Hiring low to no time pilots, spinning them through a mini flying school, having them sit on their thumbs for 3-4+ years as SOs, and calling it good is a massive compromise from my vantage point.

That much of the industry does this now is no consolation to me. Flying with CX’s two bar cadet JFOs is usually a lot of work. I miss the ejection seat, both figuratively and literally. Then, we get to be disparaged by the same pilots we just babysat for hours while they put downward pressure on our contracts. Yeah, it’s a bitter pill to swallow.

[Memorylapse]

Actually, I did quite well at an excellent university and could have taken a number of jobs in finance (investment banking, consulting, venture capital) that probably would have brought me back to uni for an MBA and/or JD. I chose to serve my country in the military out of a sense of duty and a passion for aviation. I left the military after enough deployments to the desert and started an airline career (mistake).

Perhaps our backgrounds (upbringing and schooling) is why I see things so differently from “your” generation. Cheap cadets pilots with little self respect or sense of worth have taken a once proud career and denigrated it, as was intended by cynical employers that prefer robots over a “Sully” and then brag about their safety focus.

In economics, we call this late stage capitalism when too many goods and services are relegated to commodities (widgets), and input costs are excessively reduced such that the quality of the products are compromised. Hiring low to no time pilots, spinning them through a mini flying school, having them sit on their thumbs for 3-4+ years as SOs, and calling it good is a massive compromise from my vantage point.

That much of the industry does this now is no consolation to me. Flying with CX’s two bar cadet JFOs is usually a lot of work. I miss the ejection seat, both figuratively and literally. Then, we get to be disparaged by the same pilots we just babysat for hours while they put downward pressure on our contracts. Yeah, it’s a bitter pill to swallow.

Don't cry yourself to sleep tonight, darling. And if you could not yell at the kids and not kick the dog, that would be a bonus, Mavedick.

[cxorcist]

Don't cry yourself to sleep tonight, darling. And if you could not yell at the kids and not kick the dog, that would be a bonus - Mavedick.
Thank you for proving my point.

[Memorylapse]

Thank you for proving my point.

Luckily your time is over - you know it, I know it, most people know it. It's gone.

[cxorcist]

Luckily your time is over - you know it, I know it, most people know it. It's gone.
Really? I would consider it quite unlucky actually. You may think you’re going to get lucky, but I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that if I were you. CX may be ruthless, but they are not stupid.

[Memorylapse]

Really? I would consider it quite unlucky actually. You may think you’re going to get lucky, but I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that if I were you. CX may be ruthless, but they are not stupid.

Don’t kick that dog now, Skip!

[cxorcist]

Don’t kick that dog now, Skip!
“Dog is my copilot”

Oh, how I wish the bumper sticker were true!

Properly raised, respectful, and much smarter than most. Knows when to sit there and be quiet and when to take action. Yes, the dog is wise indeed. No chance of me kicking her.

[SaulGoodman]

Actually, I did quite well at an excellent university and could have taken a number of jobs in finance (investment banking, consulting, venture capital) that probably would have brought me back to uni for an MBA and/or JD. I chose to serve my country in the military out of a sense of duty and a passion for aviation. I left the military after enough deployments to the desert and started an airline career (mistake).

Perhaps our backgrounds (upbringing and schooling) is why I see things so differently from “your” generation. Cheap cadets pilots with little self respect or sense of worth have taken a once proud career and denigrated it, as was intended by cynical employers that prefer robots over a “Sully” and then brag about their safety focus.

In economics, we call this late stage capitalism when too many goods and services are relegated to commodities (widgets), and input costs are excessively reduced such that the quality of the products are compromised. Hiring low to no time pilots, spinning them through a mini flying school, having them sit on their thumbs for 3-4+ years as SOs, and calling it good is a massive compromise from my vantage point.

That much of the industry does this now is no consolation to me. Flying with CX’s two bar cadet JFOs is usually a lot of work. I miss the ejection seat, both figuratively and literally. Then, we get to be disparaged by the same pilots we just babysat for hours while they put downward pressure on our contracts. Yeah, it’s a bitter pill to swallow.

Dear Captain Cxorcist,

Herewith I would like to express my sincere gratitude to you for sharing your limited time as well as your many talents and great wisdom with us here on an anonymous internet forum. You could have used your time, talent and wisdom for something worthwhile but instead you decided to share it with us.

[LongTimeInCX]

Thank you for proving my point.

Cxorcist, there are lots like him, ignore it. Many of us can relate to your longer earlier post.
I'd wager our backgrounds are similar, and at the risk of our newer snowflake generation throwing the same barbs at me, it's pointless trying to explain to them.
Unless they've ever strapped into an ejection seat, launched in a fully loaded combat aircraft, and understand if you are flying over areas where if you eject, and survive, you stand an even chance of having your nuts relocated to your mouth, they will never understand.
They'll never understand how you have the trust to depend on a wingman, meet solid folk who stay lifelong mates, and how those years of military service mold you into an individual with integrity, who becomes principled, and who hates BS.
In short, they just do not have the age and maturity to understand where you're coming from.
The cold hard reality of commercial aviation downsizing may soon be a rather rude awakening for them.
To all, whether you're a brushwing snowflake, an oldie, or somewhere in between, I wish you well in the forthcoming restructure.

[jriv]

What a truly sad display of a divided pilot group.

Management just sits back and watches you all taunt each other as if you know the other group is going to get chopped. Of course nobody knows anything, and that's likely by design so management can let the fear of the unknown fester and drive you all to make these uninformed forecasts. The public negotiating where scared individuals say the minimum they are willing to take to save the company are just icing on the cake.

[Progress Wanchai]

That’s exactly right STW! If CX breaks the LIFO contracts it has now, why would anyone be so stupid as to believe them going forward? Even facing a furlough, pilots with an inkling of sense should want an employer with enough integrity to honor their contracts. Otherwise, why would anyone sign one of these contracts and want to work for CX? Perhaps CX thinks they can prey on the young, dumb, and inexperienced indefinitely. This thread certainly makes a case for that.

Its a conversation going on in pilot bars around the world regarding CX management;

“They sacked 49 guys to intimidate the others, but I trust them.
They hired direct entry captains in breach of the contract and got away with it by calling them rapid commands, but I trust them.
They shut down the fiasco that was the Paris base on the excuse of an aircraft swap, but I trust them.
They stopped paying expat allowances by calling everyone, irrespective of experience, cadets, but I trust them.
They ignored a signed agreement with the Adelaide instructors, but I trust them.
They became the only mainline airline in the world to introduce a productivity pay system while not giving crew any control over their productivity, but I trust them.
They sacked employees for making political comments on social media, but I trust them.
BUT, if they don’t comply with every clause of cxorcist’s contract then they’ve lost my trust.”

[Sam Ting Wong]

Cxorcist, you are passionately demanding a free market, as long as the big corporations understand that you are special, disregard demand and supply of labour, honor seniority, your employer negotiates fairly with your union, your contract never is cancelled and safety is regarded as more important than profits.
And to find all that you decided to move to Hong Kong.