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Sunfish
12th Jul 2020, 13:01
Discussion with serious financial folk indicates that Qantas would be unwise to gloat over Virgin. They believe QF may be in the same situation come December.

eckhard
12th Jul 2020, 13:08
Not to detract from your post, but it’s Schadenfreude, with a capital “S” and a terminating “e”. Thanks.

No Idea Either
12th Jul 2020, 13:23
Quite a few had already predicted that Sunfish. It’s the reason why AJ has been deathly silent for the last few months......The realisation.........

but it’s OK........we don’t pick winners or losers......industry wide support.......

Buster Hyman
12th Jul 2020, 13:27
Must've missed the QF Hangar party.

dr dre
12th Jul 2020, 14:14
Yes I’m sure those financial experts know they’re in trouble better than the company itself which has legal obligations to the market and started they will be alright until December 2021.

And the CEO has been so “deathly silent” he has done interviews with 4 Corners, the Australian Financial Review, 2GB and the 7:30 Report within the last two weeks....

No Idea Either
12th Jul 2020, 14:24
Yes, but no more mention of ‘those’ or similar remarks....

Sunfish
12th Jul 2020, 18:39
Fool Sufferer, sadly yes. I am deluded. A former Bank Chairman voiced his concerns without any prompting from me and he told me he was not alone in his concerns. He must have been deluded too.

I take very strong exception to your characterisation of any of my posts - ever - as being “ violently hostile“ to any employees of Qantas - ever, and I ask you to withdraw your assertion or point me to such a comment so that I can apologise. I have nothing but respect for the professionalism of their operations staff which I still would characterise as the best in the world.

As for the senior management of Qantas and it’s policies, yes I am highly critical, but again I utterly reject any suggestion of impropriety on my part. The Board and senior management are fair game.

The only bright side I see for Qantas and a lot of other companies going through this extremely painful time is that it is an opportunity to get businesses back to basics - focussing on what really matters to their customers and not faffing about with management theories.

In the case of Qantas, that should bring them to take a long hard look at the outsourcing policies that among other things, destroyed their magnificent Australian engineering capability and their marketing policies that I assert were Sydney - centric to the detriment of the rest of Australia.

Green.Dot
12th Jul 2020, 20:23
Well at the end of the day if QF goes down then pretty much every other airline and company that was remotely linked to tourism/hospitality is also screwed. A change in national strategy after this 6 weeks perhaps?

Ragnor
12th Jul 2020, 21:02
Nothing would bring Sunfish greater pleasure than to see Qantas, virgin and any other aviation business go bankrupt.

cloudsurfng
12th Jul 2020, 21:06
oh...you’re still here. Ho hum.


Didn’t the market just support a 1.9 billion capital raising? Aren’t the actual financial boffins predicting that QF will emerge from this even stronger? Maybe your mate is an ‘ex’ for a reason. Maybe he’s the kind of guy who sees an opportunity to load up on shares and wants the price a little bit lower. Maybe he knows what a deluded fool you are and how you would run to the nearest device possible and post directly onto an anonymous forum, once again, predicting doom and gloom for QF.

no one at QF wants VA to fail. AJ’s comments were right on point. VA had been badly managed. Support should be industry wide. But hey, we all love to be outraged at the simplest things these days.

mmmbop
12th Jul 2020, 21:47
8128 posts and counting from a retired CEO.

Life must be pretty good. Lots of hobbies, interests, close friends and family to spend time with.

Sunfish
12th Jul 2020, 21:48
I want a vibrant, competitive aviation sector that facilitates the growth of Australia’s international trade. If Qantas and Virgin are part of that then good.

Chris2303
12th Jul 2020, 21:57
The Board and senior management are fair game.

Then, sir, so are you

wheels_down
12th Jul 2020, 21:59
Really need to see how Melbourne goes in the 28 days post lockdown, which is September. Any spikes at all during this period, don’t expect anyone opening up anything this year.

They are bullish, and rightly so I guess, considering the cash burn and damage it’s doing to the ongoing viability of the whole operation. I’m not sure if Reality has hit yet? It’s clear Melbourne won’t be open until October/November. Post Lockdown does not mean open borders. More so, Anastasia will wait 4-8 weeks of watching numbers before even considering letting southerners up.

I would be looking at November until Melbourne is ramped up. Not sure what date Alan thinks, but looks like he wants all guns blazing September School holidays.

Variable Incidence
12th Jul 2020, 22:06
Out of work pilots understandably have not much better to do than ponder and prognosticate the future.

You’re retired aren’t you Sunfish? Nothing better to do? Sad!

Sunfish
12th Jul 2020, 22:21
I’ve never been busier. However it doesn’t thaw out down here till 10.00am.

An interesting side effect to the ban on international travel is that, outside Melbourne, the domestic tourist market is going crazy. The caravan, camping and four wheel drive markets are insane at present. All that international travel budget is being channeled into domestic tourism. You cannot get a booking to fit a tow bar for weeks is what I’m told.

No one seems to want to do domestic air travel because they are afraid of catching Covid19 as well as worrying about airfare costs if Virgin is out of the market. This is just perceptions I have heard.

TBM-Legend
12th Jul 2020, 22:35
I’ve never been busier. However it doesn’t thaw out down here till 10.00am.

An interesting side effect to the ban on international travel is that, outside Melbourne, the domestic tourist market is going crazy. The caravan, camping and four wheel drive markets are insane at present. All that international travel budget is being channeled into domestic tourism. You cannot get a booking to fit a tow bar for weeks is what I’m told.

No one seems to want to do domestic air travel because they are afraid of catching Covid19 as well as worrying about airfare costs if Virgin is out of the market. This is just perceptions I have heard.


I heard, she said, he said etc etc is not evidence...​​​​​​Marvin Gaye - I Heard It Through The Grapevine - YouTube

ruprecht
12th Jul 2020, 22:38
as well as worrying about airfare costs if Virgin is out of the market. This is just perceptions I have heard.

Just stop... :rolleyes:

finestkind
12th Jul 2020, 22:50
Oh dear. It seems to be very much “play the man and not the ball”. Very disappointing that there are disparaging remarks cast upon people that although once a professional are now retired and therefore no longer are worthy of making a comment and/or must have nothing better to do (bordering on bullying). I do not know any of the players or their history on this post (yes you may illuminate me). Considering Sunfish has elicited a number of negative responses he has obviously upset a number of people. If his post are that type that require a pointed personal response would it not be better to ignore the post or let the moderators moderate?

Cactus Jack
12th Jul 2020, 23:50
I have watched for 16 years as Sunfish makes ridiculous bold disparaging assertions about Qantas. Not saying he is wrong on this occasion, but I am yet to see be correct about our national carrier.

The Webster dictionary defines Schadenfreude as "enjoyment obtained at the troubles of others". So Sunfish, why would you class it as "Schadenfreude" to see so many people out of work? Wouldn't that be a national tragedy? Do you like inflicting pain on others? WTF is wrong with you?

Repeatedly, people have asked him why he dislikes Qantas so much. Repeatedly, he avoids the question and fails to answer. So here goes one last time: Sunfish, why do you dislike Qantas and Qantas employees so much?

Renton Field
13th Jul 2020, 01:06
The reality,that commentators and contributors of any tail have stated on many threads since March,and worth repeating,is simply that absolutely NO ONE is immune from the possibility of job loss,stand down,significant reductions in T&C,reduced hours,whatever......As mentioned above,if things keep regularly spiking,and peckerheads of all kinds refuse to follow the rules,then the Q will be in as much trouble as any of the government owned/assisted biggies overseas,regardless of management skill.
There is NO guarantee of protection for anyone,and has been thus since this thing began.
Act accordingly.

George Glass
13th Jul 2020, 01:33
The real question Mola is why do you bother ?
What bizarre form of gratification do you get from other peoples misery?

The Germans have quite a few useful words.
Like Backpfeifengesicht..........

boaccomet4
13th Jul 2020, 02:58
I do not know if this agreement with the Federal Government still exists but it may be a means of saving QF and cementing their backing from the Government. When I joined what is now QF Shorthaul in the early 1970's I was advised by a soon to retire foundation member that there was an agreement with the Federal Government/RAAF that in a time of war or threats thereof that TAA and Qantas may be required to become part of the military transport / cargo division.of the RAAF. Maybe clutching at straws here but the last thing any Australian wants to see is the demise of QF. Be interested in your feedback.

chookcooker
13th Jul 2020, 03:01
So picking winners in other words

Ollie Onion
13th Jul 2020, 03:05
If this goes on long enough that Airlines with Qantas's balance sheet go down the drain then the whole world is f**(ed. Qantas has openly stated that with the CURRENT situation as of 6 weeks ago they have enough cash to sustain the business until December 21. Since then Jetstar Japan and Jetstar NZ have started flying again and will be at close to 100% in the next few weeks. As soon as Australia sorts itself out and starts unlimited domestic travel again then a good proportion of the domestic business will be back there. The NZ PM is now openly talking about a Tasman Bubble with just WA and QLD and ScoMo has for the first time said this may be what happens. On top of that it looks as though Qantas will not be paying anyone who is not working, contrast that to say Air NZ or BA or Emirates who are having to pay EVERYONE a wage while this goes on. As I say if Qantas sinks then the whole world economy is more screwed than it already is. Is there any other airline (pax) out their where people would feel anymore confident about being part of. And of course Sunfish you have been saying for months now that receivership is going to be great for Virgin and they will be stronger and better after it...... on that logic if Qantas does go to the wall then surely the receivership might be better for everyone as they will be stronger and better.

Flaming galah
13th Jul 2020, 04:24
I heard, she said, he said etc etc is not evidence...​​​​​​

but this was straight from the mouth of the Chairman of a company that was once a bank. Veracity assured...

rmm
13th Jul 2020, 04:44
The real question Mola is why do you bother ?

It all stems back to the demise of Ansett. He's never let it go.

Window heat
13th Jul 2020, 04:56
Well, for a thread which began with an all knowing, gloating monologue, it seems to have ended as a bit of a piss and wind show.

junior.VH-LFA
13th Jul 2020, 05:46
I do not know if this agreement with the Federal Government still exists but it may be a means of saving QF and cementing their backing from the Government. When I joined what is now QF Shorthaul in the early 1970's I was advised by a soon to retire foundation member that there was an agreement with the Federal Government/RAAF that in a time of war or threats thereof that TAA and Qantas may be required to become part of the military transport / cargo division.of the RAAF. Maybe clutching at straws here but the last thing any Australian wants to see is the demise of QF. Be interested in your feedback.

Become part of? No.

Commercial aviation has always been vital part of the ADF Logisitcs chain and likely always will be; but I don't think you're going to be getting the call up for national service anytime soon mate.

rattman
13th Jul 2020, 05:51
An interesting side effect to the ban on international travel is that, outside Melbourne, the domestic tourist market is going crazy. The caravan, camping and four wheel drive markets are insane at present. All that international travel budget is being channeled into domestic tourism. You cannot get a booking to fit a tow bar for weeks is what I’m told.


Flights brisbane to cairns have been pretty full, theres a substantial amount of people flying atm. Caravan parks in FNQ are booked out with grey nomads.

Become part of? No.

Commercial aviation has always been vital part of the ADF Logisitcs chain and likely always will be; but I don't think you're going to be getting the call up for national service anytime soon mate.

While australia doesn't the same extreme formal power that the US govt does on their airlines. Australian govt did press the ANA planes into military service in WW2. If a global war was to happen again you can bet it would happen again

mppgf
13th Jul 2020, 07:03
Flights brisbane to cairns have been pretty full, theres a substantial amount of people flying atm. Caravan parks in FNQ are booked out with grey nomads.



While australia doesn't the same extreme formal power that the US govt does on their airlines. Australian govt did press the ANA planes into military service in WW2. If a global war was to happen again you can bet it would happen again
Good luck to the Australian government trying to press ANA planes into military service LOL

Springbok614
13th Jul 2020, 07:23
The reality,that commentators and contributors of any tail have stated on many threads since March,and worth repeating,is simply that absolutely NO ONE is immune from the possibility of job loss,stand down,significant reductions in T&C,reduced hours,whatever......As mentioned above,if things keep regularly spiking,and peckerheads of all kinds refuse to follow the rules,then the Q will be in as much trouble as any of the government owned/assisted biggies overseas,regardless of management skill.
There is NO guarantee of protection for anyone,and has been thus since this thing began.
Act accordingly.

+1 👍🏽 That is about the short and the long of it.

rattman
13th Jul 2020, 07:29
Good luck to the Australian government trying to press ANA planes into military service LOL

My point is that it has been done before, ANA was predecessor of qantas and a was nationalized in WW2. They will do it again if needed

TBM-Legend
13th Jul 2020, 08:50
My point is that it has been done before, ANA was predecessor of qantas and a was nationalized in WW2. They will do it again if needed


Facts my boy...ANA was not the predecessor of Qantas. It's lineage is Holman Airways merged with Adelaide Airways to become ANA and subsequentlt morphed into Ansett-ANA and then the ANA name was dropped...

Qantas has always been its own entity and added a few

pondoklabu
13th Jul 2020, 10:38
I take very strong exception to your characterisation of any of my posts - ever - as being “ violently hostile“ to any employees of Qantas

Sunfish you are a old fool, you have 3 consistent themes in all your posts.
1 Your continue hatred for all things Qantas because they have the temerity of not being based in Melbourne.
2 Your constant boasting of business contacts to prove to all and sundry your not some washed up has been.
and finally 3 and this is my favourite , I have literally lost count how many times you threaten to leave this forum but alas never have.

Before ranting about your purity of intent mixed with the greater knowledge about everything, how about you look up what Schadenfreude
actually means, then try and explain why seeing good people having their lives destroyed gives you pleasure.

you are a complete clown and you should be ashamed, however I certain you won’t feel any remorse because of overwhelming supply of self indulgent superiority .

Arnold E
13th Jul 2020, 11:12
Plenty of people on here that are looking to take pleasure in the good people of REX have their lives destroyed so Sunny is no orphan.

Lambswool
13th Jul 2020, 11:31
Not to detract from your post, but it’s Schadenfreude, with a capital “S” and a terminating “e”. Thanks.
Yes, we can Google the word also. No need to tell us how good you are at doing the same.

Boeingpilot738
13th Jul 2020, 11:43
Plenty of people on here that are looking to take pleasure in the good people of REX have their lives destroyed so Sunny is no orphan.

Plenty? Really?

Bodie1
13th Jul 2020, 11:46
Plenty of people on here that are looking to take pleasure in the good people of REX have their lives destroyed so Sunny is no orphan.

Nah, just people sick to death of their continual ******* whinging.

eckhard
13th Jul 2020, 11:56
Yes, we can Google the word also. No need to tell us how good you are at doing the same.

I certainly have used Google often and I must admit that I sometimes pretend that I haven't; however, in this particular case I relied on my mother tongue. I'm half-German, you see. There's a clue in my user name!

Bodie1
13th Jul 2020, 12:14
eckhard, don't forget your audience, you're talking to Australian wankas.

Angle of Attack
13th Jul 2020, 12:20
I believe the bastard has bolted, it’s now out of control in VIC and NSW and soon QLD. This will have major repercussions on domestic travel, QLD and SA and NT should lock borders to NSW and VIC Now!

Stick Flying
13th Jul 2020, 13:09
Alas futility. The sooner we all realise elimination is impossible, the sooner we can move on to sensible progress.

Potsie Weber
13th Jul 2020, 14:09
I actually agree with Sunfish on this one. QF will likely need/want a bail out by years end, but I 100% think it will get it.

There is no way the government will let QF go down as the shock to the confidence, or what’s left of it, of the economy and all that’s Australian will be devastating. Little jars of vegemite still get pumped out, foreign owned or not, same for Qantas, nobody deep down really cares who owns it, whether you like it or not, or how it’s financed, as long as it is there. It’s a security blanket and part of Australian culture.

Bring on the Holden/Ford argument etc, but that is very different, death by 1000 cuts that everyone knew was coming and was conditioned to accept it for a very long time. If Corona threatens to take out Qantas, the ripple effect will be disastrous, the government will not let that happen.

Sunfish
13th Jul 2020, 22:04
If this thing does what the science predicts it will do, overseas supply chains will breakdown. They are already slow. If that happens, the scaling down of the Qantas engineering capability and the closure of the car industry will look like the major blunders they are because offshore maintenance will not be possible. To put that another way how is HAECO doing at present?

I can see a time when we really are “on our own” and engineering capability is going to have to be found or created the hard way. The first thing that will be a problem is engineering consumables: batteries, filters, belts, fasteners, etc. then it gets worse. I would imagine smart managers are already thinking about this.

And this begs the question of the USA picking a fight with China........... Qantas may end up doing B787 double sunrise flights again.

Sunfish
13th Jul 2020, 22:18
Pondoklabu:Your constant boasting of business contacts to prove to all and sundry your not some washed up has been.
and finally 3 and this is my favourite , I have literally lost count how many times you threaten to leave this forum but alas never have.

Before ranting about your purity of intent mixed with the greater knowledge about everything, how about you look up what Schadenfreude
actually means, then try and explain why seeing good people having their lives destroyed gives you pleasure.


Noel Annan told me his definition of Schadenfreude, a term the Germans will tell you is untranslatable: “the feeling a poor man who has no car feels when he is standing in the street and sees two brand new mercedes collide in front of him”.

My post was a warning to Qantas not to indulge in Schadenfreude as. they may go the same way as Virgin if they aren’t careful. You can look up Noel as well if you like. I can’t help about business and other contacts but I value friendship with my local CFA mates just as much if not more.

dr dre
13th Jul 2020, 22:18
Another reason why they aren’t in trouble, they’ve just announced a Voluntary Redundancy program for most of their staff. The cost of which would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. If they’re facing oblivion by December why then over the next few months do they feel comfortable enough to be handing out thousands of golden handshakes?

No Idea Either
14th Jul 2020, 00:07
Dr, I think even you know that VR is a one off hit, will be very sizeable yes, but a one off. The savings come in years 2, 3 , 4.........etc. allocating cash now for the savings in the future Is prudent and most likely very necessary. But despite all the bravado from the guvmint, as Potsie mentions, QF will not be allowed to fail. AJ knows this. He will milk this for all he can now with regards to you guys and then put his hand out when required and then take a bonus in 24 months because he has done such an amaaaaaazing job. Sound familiar???

The Blu Riband
14th Jul 2020, 11:10
Every now and again I venture onto a Qantas (Ozzie) thread to remind myself how vindictive and nasty Australians can be!
We are all -globally - in deep sh1t right now, let's cut each other some slack and show some empathy and kindness.

ozbiggles
14th Jul 2020, 11:31
Another reason why they aren’t in trouble, they’ve just announced a Voluntary Redundancy program for most of their staff. The cost of which would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. If they’re facing oblivion by December why then over the next few months do they feel comfortable enough to be handing out thousands of golden handshakes?

Even VA in 7 billion plus debt found the money to payout CR to its entire New Zealand operation and most of its Tiger fleet and then go into VA. I wouldn’t take having the money to pay out CRs or VRs as a sign of company health. I’m not saying Qantas are anywhere near that but some corporate savvy accountants are doing the sums here and not wasting an opportunity. As has been mentioned a few hundred million is a rounding error to the red rat.

just hoping for the best for everyone and if you get a knock back email from Dominos as I did, frame it and hang it on the wall!