The restart of international travel....

[JanetFlight]

A very interesting article »»»

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/restarting-international-travel-time-covid-19-jakub-p-hl%C3%A1vka/?published=t

[homonculus]

This discusses restriction as opposed to a total prohibition, and preventing first wave as opposed to subsequent waves. In addition it is not pathogen specific.

A number of countries including Singapore and China are seeing second waves due to cross border travel. Taking temperature has limited value as many people, especially under 40, have no temperature when shedding. Antibody testing is very helpful but only in the over 40s. So we really have no reliable test at the border

IMHO a country cannot relax lockdown /stay in place until the number of new cases is below that country's ability to track and trace. This will vary from country to country. The ability to reopen borders will depend upon the amount of destination and transit footfall into that country and its country of origin. So this is multifactorial. IMHO reopening borders should occur late in the process of easing lockdown, and potentially wait for mass vaccination, but no two countries are the same.

[cashash]

I did chuckle at this bit - if only...

Customs and Border Protection and the TSA will need to develop robust protocols that prevent crowding, such as by decreasing wait times

[Airmann]

The desperation being seen by countries trying to return to normal is worrying. It all started with one individual and we've now reached over 2 million infected. What's to say it can't stay again. Between a rock and a hard place. But what I've realized is that the more extreme restrictions on movement of people has been the right call. Taking it easy has led to disaster.

[GS-Alpha]

Tracking and tracing will slow the spread but cannot prevent it because it is very difficult to track and trace asymptomatic cases. The very best shot we had at that, was right back at the start of all this when we knew who had left China, yet the world failed. The only thing they can do is hope to keep the infection rate to an acceptable level via a whole host of techniques of which, social distancing will remain the most important.. Ideally they need to avoid the requirement for another full lockdown once the current ones have been lifted, but I suspect that will require more stringent social distancing than they will initially attempt (for the economy’s sake), and it will therefore get away from them at least once more.

I cannot see people being allowed to rush back to nonessential flying until a vaccine comes along. Such complacency wiould almost certainly result in further lockdowns.

[Imagegear]

I did chuckle at this bit - if only...

Customs and Border Protection and the TSA will need to develop robust protocols that prevent crowding, such as by decreasing wait times

Arriving in MIA is like being required to parade for close order drill where everyone except the passengers have weapons.

Definitely the best place to test the "herd immunity" strategy for virus control. Coming to an airport near you...:E

IG

[ReturningVector]

The desperation being seen by countries trying to return to normal is worrying. It all started with one individual and we've now reached over 2 million infected. What's to say it can't stay again. Between a rock and a hard place. But what I've realized is that the more extreme restrictions on movement of people has been the right call. Taking it easy has led to disaster.

Keeping these restrictions for longer than a couple of months will lead to even greater disaster. And not only for the aviation industry.

[Ex Cargo Clown]

Keeping these restrictions for longer than a couple of months will lead to even greater disaster. And not only for the aviation industry.

Correct. They'll be anarchy at some point, people like their liberty. It appears there will have to be "acceptable" losses, the alternative is far scarier.

[Pistonprop]

Not sure that anarchy is the immediate problem. More like a total economic meltdown which will then eventually give rise to anarchy.

[WHBM]

I did chuckle at this bit - if only...

Customs and Border Protection and the TSA will need to develop robust protocols that prevent crowding, such as by decreasing wait times
CBP have some good form in decreasing wait times at their facilities on the occasions they are getting measured - they make pax wait inside the incoming aircraft at the gate, sometimes for hours.

LAX especially, looking at you ...

[homonculus]

I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries

Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy

However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.

[JayHobbes]

I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries

Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy

However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.

I think the main takeaway is that international travel restrictions have limited benefits once community transmission is wide-ranging (the major increase in risk is by increasing transmission between pax and staff during travel, which can be mitigated by measures the author touched on, aside from understanding that the same risks are associated with domestic travel). Complete travel shutdowns will not prevent second, third or other waves...

[JayHobbes]

I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries

Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy

However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.

With community transmission, the benefits of complete international travel bans are limited, as the author says. Plus transmission during travel can be reduced. The benefits that are hard to quantify are from family members/students/key business leaders being able to relocate as needed (even if adhering to social distancing in their destinations, they may still need to enter/leave a country). It is sad to to see restrictions put in place that are not aligned with best-available evidence but at a potentially large human costs.

[3Greens]

I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries

Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy

However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.
just to be clear, even if they found a vaccine worked Tommorow, you have to have extensive human trials. Do we want another thalidomide scandal? There is zero chance of a vaccine this year, and only a remote chance of one in 2021.

[kiwi grey]

I think we should distinguish between restrictions within a country and restrictions between countries
Restrictions within a country are, in democracies, up to the government and its charter with the people. There is indeed a balance between death and the economy
However restrictions between countries in the main only effect aviation and tourism. Goods and livestock can be imported and exported but the borders closed to humans. The economic effect would be limited and IMHO far less than the damage from a second, third or fourth wave. A vaccine is now possible at the end of 2020 and I just dont see the justification with killing the same number of citizens again.

Yes and no.
My own country of NZ was planning on several million international tourists this year, and is now expecting virtually none. A whole swathe of tourist-dependant industry - hotels, camping grounds, camper van hire, bars, restaurants, "Hobbiton" tours, jet boat rides, bungy jump 'experiences', etc. etc. - will go bust as there does not appear to be any realistic chance of international tourism resuming until there's a vaccine.
On the other hand, our goods export industries are continuing to flourish, partly because the NZ dollar has depreciated about 10% against the US dollar.

I'm sure there are many other economies where long-haul international tourism has previously been the backbone of their prosperity.
For example, Bali without hordes of Australian and NZ tourists will be a much poorer place. Nicer maybe, but poorer

[KRviator]

just to be clear, even if they found a vaccine worked Tommorow, you have to have extensive human trials. Do we want another thalidomide scandal? There is zero chance of a vaccine this year, and only a remote chance of one in 2021.And that is assuming the boffins are able to actually develop a vaccine. AIUI, there has never been a vaccine developed to treat a corona virus, so if they develop one, it will be a world first.

[giggitygiggity]

And that is assuming the boffins are able to actually develop a vaccine. AIUI, there has never been a vaccine developed to treat a corona virus, so if they develop one, it will be a world first.
You understand wrong I’m afraid. Canine coronavirus vaccines are available now and have been for quite some time. There isn’t much barrier, aside from time, to be able to develop one for human infection.

Although I’m not saying/predicting that we’ll develop the solution for humans any time soon. As far as current science goes, it’s a matter of when, not if.

Vaccines need to be grown; that will unfortunately take time. After that, they’ll need to conduct extensive clinical trials before one shows up at your local health centre.

As annoying/damaging as it is, it’s a matter of patience.

[tdracer]

And that is assuming the boffins are able to actually develop a vaccine. AIUI, there has never been a vaccine developed to treat a corona virus, so if they develop one, it will be a world first.

What giggity said. There are Covid 19 vaccines already undergoing human trials (one such trial is taking place in Seattle). Normally it would be another ~18 months before such a vaccine would be approved for general use, but there is enough urgency associated with Covid 19 to cut that - perhaps in half - but that still puts into next year.
More encouraging is the development of near instant testing for the virus - a couple minutes from sample to final results. Such testing - if widely available and reasonably cheap - could be a game changer.

[MathFox]

What giggity said. There are Covid 19 vaccines already undergoing human trials (one such trial is taking place in Seattle). Normally it would be another ~18 months before such a vaccine would be approved for general use, but there is enough urgency associated with Covid 19 to cut that - perhaps in half - but that still puts into next year.
I am a little bit more optimistic when I say that approval for the vaccine could be late this year; getting sufficient people vaccinated will take a year too, it takes time to get enough vaccine produced.
More encouraging is the development of near instant testing for the virus - a couple minutes from sample to final results. Such testing - if widely available and reasonably cheap - could be a game changer.
But that would not test for the next virus. I think society should consider the cost of airlifting viruses (in a contagious host) from one continent to another.

[Deltasierra010]

“just to be clear, even if they found a vaccine worked Tommorow, you have to have extensive human trials. Do we want another thalidomide scandal? There is zero chance of a vaccine this year, and only a remote chance of one in 2021.”

If that is true we will all have been exposed long before we get a vaccine, so the vaccine will be no use, this is a very infectious pandemic, all we can do is treat symptoms. In the U.K. it is already causing high mortality in care homes for the elderly, most younger patients do have a good resistance or some immunity. At some point the economy has to return to work, how soon international travel is possible is very uncertain because each nation will have its own restrictions.

[guy_incognito]

I don't think a vaccine is the silver bullet people have been lead to believe it is. Even if it is, it's blindingly obvious that the world economy cannot wait for one to be developed, even allowing for the most optimistic timescales.

[Slaine]

How quickly should we want and expect those restrictions to be lifted?
Did the UK ever introduce such restrictions?

[EDLB]

I am a little bit more optimistic when I say that approval for the vaccine could be late this year; getting sufficient people vaccinated will take a year too, it takes time to get enough vaccine produced.

Don‘t like to throw a wrench in that argumentation. Even with several handful different Corona virus types around since decades (several flu type Corona viruses and SARS, MERS, lots of animal bound Corona viruses) there was not a single successful vaccine developed for a Corona virus. Even the human body seems not to care to produce a lifetime immunity against any Corona type virus because this RNA viruses mutate in a year timeframe that immunity to that year old RNA would not help. The actual SARS-CoV2 virus interacts in a complex way with the human viral defense system a bit like HIV does.
So prepare to see a lot of bad news in the coming years about the attempts verifying the vaccine developments from the current 70+ companies and entities in Corona vaccine development.

[Slaine]

I think we all need to be a bit cautious of announcements on vaccine developements, I fear most of these announcements have more to do with boosting American drug companies' stock market values than they do with real progress on a vaccine

[Livesinafield]

The current lockdown procedures cannot go on forever or even much longer at all, The UK government is paying staff a proportion of their salary to stay at home, this can't continue for long and when it ends then what? What are people supposed to do for money and food.

We need people back at work, the damage we are creating is causing devastation to future lives for years and years to come , let's not forget our NHS will suffer for years from this due to the cuts that will have to come in and in tern cause higher deaths from diseases in the future

Whatever happens needs to happen fairly quickly to get stuff moving again, whilst maintaining social distancing

[mickjoebill]

Two days ago the Australian federal minister for Tourism, someone who is known for “talking up” travel, said international travel in or out of Australia was unlikely before Christmas. He went on to add that no one should be booking cruises scheduled to depart this year, without a rock solid cancellation insurance. He concluded that the Cruise industry would be the very last in line to be permitted to reopen.

[cashash]

The current lockdown procedures cannot go on forever or even much longer at all,


I agree with that but lifting the lockdown is a different issue to opening international borders for non-essential travel. I would have thought that even when borders are finally re-opened the restrictions and checks on entry are going to put off a lot of people from even attempting it in the short term.

[The AvgasDinosaur]

I agree with that but lifting the lockdown is a different issue to opening international borders for non-essential travel. I would have thought that even when borders are finally re-opened the restrictions and checks on entry are going to put off a lot of people from even attempting it in the short term.
An even bigger problem will be restrictions and checks on return. The holiday destinations will be desperate to open up as soon as possible.
David

[AfricanSkies]

If you got one engineer and tasked him to design the next supersonic transport, it would be all but impossible for him and perhaps take him 100 years or more.

If you assembled a team of 300 engineers, they could probably knock a design out in a year or two.

If you had fifty teams of 50 engineers they could probably have three or four designs in a month or two.

That's how the world's medical researchers are attacking this, en masse, at max continuous. We'll have a vaccine sooner rather than later .

[malanda]

We'll have a vaccine sooner rather than later .
We'll have several, but they will be untested. You can't short-circuit that testing.

[hunterboy]

No shortage of human volunteers to test it at the moment .....

[West Coast]

I think we all need to be a bit cautious of announcements on vaccine developements, I fear most of these announcements have more to do with boosting American drug companies' stock market values than they do with real progress on a vaccine

Target fixation.

[GS-Alpha]

No shortage of human volunteers to test it at the moment .....
Are you seriously telling me you would rather take your chances with an untested vaccine than with the virus? (A vaccine is of no use to you once you are already ill).

[GS-Alpha]

AfricanSkies
Some vaccine development can indeed be done in parallel that is true. Multiple labs working on multiple potential vaccines certainly increases the chances of one of them working. You can also mass produce before you have finished testing, so you are ready to go the moment a particular vaccine tests successfully. However you do so in the knowledge that most of that effort will just be for nothing because the testing for most, if not all potentials will prove unsuccessful. (I suspect some people do not realise what the testing is for. It is not just to test whether the vaccine provides immunity. It also determines side effects, which can very easily outweigh the benefits). I personally think we would have to get very lucky indeed, to have a useful vaccine by September - it is not impossible as technical advancements in vaccine development and testing are bound to come with so many people focussed on it, but even so the chances are slim.

[FullWings]

If you got one engineer and tasked him to design the next supersonic transport, it would be all but impossible for him and perhaps take him 100 years or more.

If you assembled a team of 300 engineers, they could probably knock a design out in a year or two.

If you had fifty teams of 50 engineers they could probably have three or four designs in a month or two.

That's how the world's medical researchers are attacking this, en masse, at max continuous. We'll have a vaccine sooner rather than later .
I’m an optimist too, and think we will see a vaccine earlier than the many years that are sometimes talked about. That said, there is only so much fast tracking you can do: I’m reminded of the famous quote about if it takes one woman nine months to make a baby, then nine women should be able to do it in a month...

There are probably things that came be done in parallel but also some that can’t, without some risky shortcuts in testing. If we are going to inoculate a significant percentage of the World’s population, which will have to happen for vaccination to be effective, then we’d want to be fairly sure about the lack of serious side effects and that takes time to establish.

[tdracer]

FullWings, you beat me to it - I was thinking of the exact same '9 women can make a baby in one month' as I read AfricanSkies post.
As I previously noted, there are already vaccines undergoing human testing - creating the vaccine is not the time consuming part. It's the testing to make sure it works and isn't worse than the disease that takes time. That testing normally takes ~18 months. Skipping most of red tape and throwing unlimited resources can shorten that, but you're not going to turn months into weeks. Doing the job right takes time, and when you're talking millions of lives, you damn better make sure you get it right.

[RoyHudd]

You have gone off thread. There will be a slow and different re-start to international air travel.

Most airlines are going to shut down. Sad, but true.

[ATC Watcher]

You have gone off thread. There will be a slow and different re-start to international air travel.

Most airlines are going to shut down. Sad, but true.
Indeed . As whole areas/continents have not yet started to be widely infected and do not have the same medical facilities and political resources to contain the infection . Nobody is going to travel voluntarily there for a long time ..

[JayHobbes]

Indeed . As whole areas/continents have not yet started to be widely infected and do not have the same medical facilities and political resources to contain the infection . Nobody is going to travel voluntarily there for a long time ..
The hope is that countries that are at a comparable level and relax some domestic restrictions should be more comfortable reopening borders in a selective way, e.g. with visitors from other similarly safe places.

The OP argued for gradual, parity-based lifting of bans, which makes a lot of sense. This way, travel between lower-risk countries should not be prevented for much longer.