Future of the Airlines.

[krismiler]

After this pandemic and worldwide depression I predict a much smaller airline industry to emerge, similar to before deregulation. Airlines without a very healthy balance sheet before this started, or government backing will go under.

What’s left will be nationalised or subject to heavy controls regarding routes, timetables and fares.

For the A380 it’s almost certainly long term storage for a couple of years and only back on a few limited routes where the numbers add up, if and when it does return.

Probably the final nail for the B737 MAX as well. Why waste billions in patching up a fundamentally flawed design for which future demand has evaporated ? There may have been a case for a solution when the order book was in the thousands, but not any more.

The US government will likely take over Boeing due to its importance to the economy and as a defence supplier. The downturn could be used to develop an all new replacement aircraft.

I believe that the future is now all twins, with A320/B737s being used to the limits of their range and B787s taking over from there. These types are already in existence in significant numbers and economical to operate, even though fuel price won’t be much of an issue for a while. High density seating in the narrow bodies and 9 across in the B787, with possibly a couple of rows of business class will be the new norm.

Suites and lie flat seats won’t be filling up anytime soon. A holiday is likely to be an annual trip to a short/mid range destination on a low cost airline, rather than long haul on a premium carrier. Short getaways to Europe from the UK will likely be replaced with coach trips to Blackpool, Rhyl, Skegness and Brighton.

[Bend alot]

Since air travel was a major player in the virus's spread across the globe "social distancing" might be a requirement in future air travel.

Not sure any airline has a healthy enough balance sheet to last this out and be able to function when the dust finally settles in the distant future.

Governments will have much bigger concerns than air travel - much of the business travel (junkets) will not return.

Tourism air travel will be a long slow process as folks now realize savings are important - when things go bad.

[Anti Skid On]

After this pandemic and worldwide depression I predict a much smaller airline industry to emerge, similar to before deregulation. Airlines without a very healthy balance sheet before this started, or government backing will go under.

What’s left will be nationalised or subject to heavy controls regarding routes, timetables and fares.

For the A380 it’s almost certainly long term storage for a couple of years and only back on a few limited routes where the numbers add up, if and when it does return.

Probably the final nail for the B737 MAX as well. Why waste billions in patching up a fundamentally flawed design for which future demand has evaporated ? There may have been a case for a solution when the order book was in the thousands, but not any more.

The US government will likely take over Boeing due to its importance to the economy and as a defence supplier. The downturn could be used to develop an all new replacement aircraft.

I believe that the future is now all twins, with A320/B737s being used to the limits of their range and B787s taking over from there. These types are already in existence in significant numbers and economical to operate, even though fuel price won’t be much of an issue for a while. High density seating in the narrow bodies and 9 across in the B787, with possibly a couple of rows of business class will be the new norm.

Suites and lie flat seats won’t be filling up anytime soon. A holiday is likely to be an annual trip to a short/mid range destination on a low cost airline, rather than long haul on a premium carrier. Short getaways to Europe from the UK will likely be replaced with coach trips to Blackpool, Rhyl, Skegness and Brighton.


Too many questions within your original comment

Boeing, I think you are correct.

The A380 should survive or heavy traffic routes. The problem is volume -v- frequency; do consumers want 2 x 500 seat aircraft per day, or a schedule that has 4 x 250 seat aircraft? Can all international routes be daily services?

The A350 is a far better aircraft IMHO than the 787, in terms of range, fuel efficiency and passenger space, and with all the goings on within Boeing it should become more popular - and how far off is the A330 neo?

The other thing is with climate change will more short haul routes be overtaken by high speed rail? Maybe not in the US, but possibly in Europe.

Will people return to coach trips? Really, everyone lives for their cars.

[Chris2303]

Too many potential passengers will have got used to using Skype that there will be very little business travel because businesses can't afford it

[krismiler]

Generally people will downgrade a step or two, first class to business, business to economy, full service to low cost. Long haul holiday destination to regional, regional to domestic. The problem experienced in the UK after the financial crisis was that people's spending levels didn't instantly rebound once things improved. Money saving habits were ingrained and once it was realised that supermarket own brands did the same job as premium ones, you didn't actually need to upgrade your cell phone every year and a ready meal from M&S with their own brand wine was as nice as a poncy restaurant, it was hard to justify going back to the old ways. This was especially applicable if you were caught with your pants down financially having little in the bank and heavy monthly commitments.

The big question is of course, how long this goes on for. A vaccine available in mass quantities tomorrow would end the immediate crisis and we could concentrate on the economy, a second wave of a more severe virus strain with a higher mortality rate would plunge us into a depression that would still affect our grandchildren.

The A350 may be a better aircraft than the B787 but it couldn't compete with second hand B787s being sold at fire sale prices by bankrupt or downsizing airlines. There are probably enough narrow bodies around at the moment to cater for immediate needs, the newer and larger variants such as the A321NEO could replace widebodies on many routes which would be unable to sustain a 300 seat aircraft. The B777-300 would effectively be the new A380. Fuel prices are unlikely to be a major issue for a while which will extend the lifespans of older aircraft currently in use.

[poporange]

According to a report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global demand and frequency of travel are expected to increase by 3.5% per year, and air travel is predicted to increase from 3.8 billion travelers in 2016 to well over 8.2 billion passengers by 2037. This trend gonna be changed with what is happening right now.

[procede]

Generally people will downgrade a step or two, first class to business, business to economy, full service to low cost. Long haul holiday destination to regional, regional to domestic. The problem experienced in the UK after the financial crisis was that people's spending levels didn't instantly rebound once things improved. Money saving habits were ingrained and once it was realised that supermarket own brands did the same job as premium ones, you didn't actually need to upgrade your cell phone every year and a ready meal from M&S with their own brand wine was as nice as a poncy restaurant, it was hard to justify going back to the old ways. This was especially applicable if you were caught with your pants down financially having little in the bank and heavy monthly commitments.

The big question is of course, how long this goes on for. A vaccine available in mass quantities tomorrow would end the immediate crisis and we could concentrate on the economy, a second wave of a more severe virus strain with a higher mortality rate would plunge us into a depression that would still affect our grandchildren.

The A350 may be a better aircraft than the B787 but it couldn't compete with second hand B787s being sold at fire sale prices by bankrupt or downsizing airlines. There are probably enough narrow bodies around at the moment to cater for immediate needs, the newer and larger variants such as the A321NEO could replace widebodies on many routes which would be unable to sustain a 300 seat aircraft. The B777-300 would effectively be the new A380. Fuel prices are unlikely to be a major issue for a while which will extend the lifespans of older aircraft currently in use.

And then there are the grounded 737MAX...

I think you will be able to get a widebody aircraft free with your cornflakes, as long as you pick it up and pay for parking...

[FullWings]

I think that with Jet A1 being 1/3rd of the cost it was a year ago, it might make more sense to run a cheap, less efficient airframe than an expensive, efficient one. Why pay leasing on a 787 when you can pull an old Jumbo (or A380!) out of the desert and get more bums on seats?

[kontrolor]

first and foremost - it must be de-industrialized in a sense, that aviation is not "just a business". CEO's who get payed extra if companie's share value rises, so taking care for themselves by buyback of own stock with someone else's money, should stop, should be strictly prohibited. De-regulation has started race to the bottom and increased pollution, as flying became so mondane, as walk in the park. I hope that there will be significant increase in investment in real public transport, like high-speed rails - as routes up to 500 km (or even more) on continent should be covered by high-tech trains, rather than aeroplanes. And everything is not for sale or to be used freely, withouth any moderation. Like airspace - drones and autonoumus airplanes and crap like that. Or we will wanish as species rather sooner than later.

[triploss]

Too many potential passengers will have got used to using Skype that there will be very little business travel because businesses can't afford it
They absolutely won't. Even the companies making these video based solutions send lots of employees around the world because video simply cannot replace face to face (never mind the timezone issues). Some travel might go away, but the vast majority of business travel is going to stay - cashflow permitting.

[etudiant]

The specific structure of the post virus air transport system is pretty much open, no carrier can survive in hibernation for months. So they all will need help to restart, which gives the governments lots of leeway. The carriers will reemerge, in some form and relatively quickly.

What is underappreciated is the damage to aircraft builders.
The global fleet has been getting substantially younger, courtesy of a decade of vigorous fleet renewal spurred by low interest rates. The system now has no replacement needs for several years.
Full Wings' perceptive comment just highlights another element which adds to the pressure on the manufacturers. Nobody will need more aircraft for some years. The industry may have considerably more adjustment in store.

[GlobalNav]

Geeez, Federal Government takeover of Boeing? Atilla the Hun might as well be UN Secretary General.

[The Range]

After this pandemic and worldwide depression I predict a much smaller airline industry to emerge, similar to before deregulation. Airlines without a very healthy balance sheet before this started, or government backing will go under.

What’s left will be nationalised or subject to heavy controls regarding routes, timetables and fares.

For the A380 it’s almost certainly long term storage for a couple of years and only back on a few limited routes where the numbers add up, if and when it does return.

Probably the final nail for the B737 MAX as well. Why waste billions in patching up a fundamentally flawed design for which future demand has evaporated ? There may have been a case for a solution when the order book was in the thousands, but not any more.

The US government will likely take over Boeing due to its importance to the economy and as a defence supplier. The downturn could be used to develop an all new replacement aircraft.

I believe that the future is now all twins, with A320/B737s being used to the limits of their range and B787s taking over from there. These types are already in existence in significant numbers and economical to operate, even though fuel price won’t be much of an issue for a while. High density seating in the narrow bodies and 9 across in the B787, with possibly a couple of rows of business class will be the new norm.

Suites and lie flat seats won’t be filling up anytime soon. A holiday is likely to be an annual trip to a short/mid range destination on a low cost airline, rather than long haul on a premium carrier. Short getaways to Europe from the UK will likely be replaced with coach trips to Blackpool, Rhyl, Skegness and Brighton.
You've got a good cristal ball. Can you tell what the stock markets are going to do?

[kpd]

I think there will be a trust problem with the airlines when this all finishes - look at the people trying to get home now and how they are being treated- from Irish Independent"John Spollen, the soft spoken president of the Irish Travel Agents Association, describes what has happened since the outbreak of coronavirus as a "Wild West of aviation" as airlines have abandoned their customers and ignored their rights."

Emirates is giving refunds but only from 12 months out. Customers have a year to make their mind up, and after that if they still want a refund, it will give you the refund.

Not much use if you need the refund to fly home now"

Not to blame Emirates alone- many other airlines doing the same- even BA will refund in 4-6 weeks when THEY cancel.
But this doesn't help people getting home now as could hardly be regarded as good PR for the airlines. This does not criticise the staff who work for them but I do worry that this is bad publicity for the industry and will slow a return of normal travel

[navstar1]

Totally agree kid. Whatever happened to a duty of care from an airline when they cancel? Also the time lag for a refund is a disgrace when people who are stranded need the funds to try to return home.

[foxcharliep2]

I think there will be a trust problem with the airlines when this all finishes - look at the people trying to get home now and how they are being treated- from Irish Independent"John Spollen, the soft spoken president of the Irish Travel Agents Association, describes what has happened since the outbreak of coronavirus as a "Wild West of aviation" as airlines have abandoned their customers and ignored their rights."


Couldn't agree more.

Personal experience is : I cancelled a long planned fligth to Cuba for 19th March after my gvt had issued a no-fly warning, but the airline - Condor in this case - refused to honour/refund it as the flight was scheduled to operate - and ... it went ahead as scheduled.
Irresponsible and reckless IMO.
Cuba closed its borders 2 days later and 40k tourists are trying to get out.
Wonder how the ones flying 19th March are doing there now ...

[Wellfan]

Couldn't agree more.

Personal experience is : I cancelled a long planned fligth to Cuba for 19th March after my gvt had issued a no-fly warning, but the airline - Condor in this case - refused to honour/refund it as the flight was scheduled to operate - and ... it went ahead as scheduled.
Irresponsible and reckless IMO.
Cuba closed its borders 2 days later and 40k tourists are trying to get out.
Wonder how the ones flying 19th March are doing there now ...

I've just had to get out of Russia in a hurry (I was working there and they are closing down international travel). Was due to return on the 5th of April. Had no problems getting flights changed and I'm now safely home. It is not all bad!

[Cat Techie]

Are any of you going to fly anywhere if you haven't caught a nasty RNA molecule and survived it? No.

[SilverCircle]

I think there will be a trust problem with the airlines when this all finishes - look at the people trying to get home now and how they are being treated- from Irish Independent"John Spollen, the soft spoken president of the Irish Travel Agents Association, describes what has happened since the outbreak of coronavirus as a "Wild West of aviation" as airlines have abandoned their customers and ignored their rights."
Not all airlines, only some.

Our airline (i don't work there, i just say *our* because it's the flag carrier of the country I live in) does a good job in getting people home from all over the world. Their 777 are constantly flying to collect people from far away destinations in South America or the Far East while they also already started to fly large quantities of medical equipment from China to Europe.

From what I have heard, they treat their Pax well, even in these difficult times and do whatever needed to get people home.

So once this is over, people will have that in the back of their minds. Airlines who treated their pax like cr*ap might find difficult business in the future. And rightfully so.

[ZFT]

Not all airlines, only some.

Our airline (i don't work there, i just say *our* because it's the flag carrier of the country I live in) does a good job in getting people home from all over the world. Their 777 are constantly flying to collect people from far away destinations in South America or the Far East while they also already started to fly large quantities of medical equipment from China to Europe.

From what I have heard, they treat their Pax well, even in these difficult times and do whatever needed to get people home.

So once this is over, people will have that in the back of their minds. Airlines who treated their pax like cr*ap might find difficult business in the future. And rightfully so.

likewise with hotels and booking agencies. Customers will have long and permanent memories.

I will state Booking.com have been excellent.

[Pugilistic Animus]

Too many questions within your original comment

Boeing, I think you are correct.

The A380 should survive or heavy traffic routes. The problem is volume -v- frequency; do consumers want 2 x 500 seat aircraft per day, or a schedule that has 4 x 250 seat aircraft? Can all international routes be daily services?

The A350 is a far better aircraft IMHO than the 787, in terms of range, fuel efficiency and passenger space, and with all the goings on within Boeing it should become more popular - and how far off is the A330 neo?

The other thing is with climate change will more short haul routes be overtaken by high speed rail? Maybe not in the US, but possibly in Europe.

Will people return to coach trips? Really, everyone lives for their cars.

High speed rail requires a lot of electricity which will probably come from a steam plant so maybe it's inimical to the airlines as a result of convience nothing to do with the environment....just my opinion tho....who knows

[navstar1]

Agreed Bookings.com have been and continue to be excellent. Well done to them.Reference International airlines it is good to hear that at least one “flag carrier” is supporting its customers and nationals. My experience is that many have cut and run for cover with an option to rebook in the future or eventually giving a refund not much good in the present circumstances and I hope their actions will not be forgotten in the future if ever we return to normal.

[serf]

I think there will be a trust problem with the airlines when this all finishes - look at the people trying to get home now and how they are being treated- from Irish Independent"John Spollen, the soft spoken president of the Irish Travel Agents Association, describes what has happened since the outbreak of coronavirus as a "Wild West of aviation" as airlines have abandoned their customers and ignored their rights."

Emirates is giving refunds but only from 12 months out. Customers have a year to make their mind up, and after that if they still want a refund, it will give you the refund.

Not much use if you need the refund to fly home now"

Not to blame Emirates alone- many other airlines doing the same- even BA will refund in 4-6 weeks when THEY cancel.
But this doesn't help people getting home now as could hardly be regarded as good PR for the airlines. This does not criticise the staff who work for them but I do worry that this is bad publicity for the industry and will slow a return of normal travel

Had my refund from BA within 5 days, they had said 10-14 days when the flights were cancelled.

[krismiler]

QATAR Airways appear to be one of the better airlines to have been booked with during this crisis and are trying to maintain some form of network so people can at least get home.

[marchino61]

QATAR Airways appear to be one of the better airlines to have been booked with during this crisis and are trying to maintain some form of network so people can at least get home.

Part of their reason for continuing is to establish an advantage in reputation over Etihad and Emirates, which the UAE has forced to shut down.

[tdracer]

My experience with Delta was pretty good. I was supposed to be flying to Washington DC tomorrow with the wife. Looks like the flight is still going, but not only are we both in groups considered to be 'high risk', pretty much everything we were planning to do in DC isn't happening. I'd used a highly restricted 'companion ticket' to get a great fare - round trip Seattle to Dulles for two in first class, for just over $1,000. Delta waived all the restrictions and I was able to reschedule everything to September (hoping this has largely blown over by then) at no charge. My only complain was that I couldn't change it on-line - I had to call, and when I got through after waiting on hold for about 10 minutes I was told to call a different number that wasn't listed on the website. But I got through immediately using the new phone number, and the agent couldn't have been more helpful.

[BEA 71]

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1440/haar_28_mar_20_7__2df257be905b8ee146f8f4ed9979be7fca6b85e3.j pg

There is hope - saw this AVIANCA B 787 climbing out from Munich yesterday.

[safelife]

QATAR Airways appear to be one of the better airlines to have been booked with during this crisis and are trying to maintain some form of network so people can at least get home.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/exclusive--qatar-airways-says-it-will-need-state-support-as-cash-runs-out-12587596

[PeterWeb]

I will state Booking.com have been excellent.

Agreed, and also Hotels.com except in a couple of noticeable cases where the property simply collected because our cancellation was already within the "no free cancel" period. Haven't yet tried calling Hotels.com to get that reversed in those cases, but have little hope.

Earlier this month we realised we had to can a five week trip to Central America and Cuba. Two airlines - American and Avianca, agreed to refunds without hassle - easy process, good result. Cubana refunded after deducting a fee, fair enough I guess. Alaska simply walked away with our money. Quite a few, like Copa, had awful comms and eventually - after cancelling flights - offered us credits for 12 to 18 months - which would be acceptable if we had confidence the airline would still be around to honour the debt. May need to call the card company about those.

One or two accommodation and activity providers we'd booked with directly handled things badly, most were great. We will remember.

If you hold any airmiles that can be readily spent on non-aviation products right now, I'd advise spending them. You're an unsecured creditor.

[krismiler]

The three year long blockade of Qatar and the loss of important regional destinations, together with the additional costs of extended routings around nearby countries have had an impact on the airlines finances even before this pandemic. With a loss of US$639 million for the financial year ending 31 March 2019, and this FY likely to be much worse (even though the flight cancellations only affect a few weeks of it), together with the certainty of massive further losses next FY even if a cure for the virus is found tomorrow, the future is far from clear.

With no domestic routes, restrictions on countries nearby and little origin/destination traffic the airline is almost totally reliant on connecting flights through Doha which puts it in a very weak position. Many airlines enjoy a domestic network and a market for which their country is either the origin or destination, enabling them to charge a premium for non stop flights during high season and switch to being a hub for connecting traffic during the low season.

As a long haul premium hub airline, recovery is likely to be delayed, the domestic and regional low cost airlines will be the first to benefit when things pick up again. It's a real pity as I always enjoyed flying on Qatar Airways and found their fares to be very reasonable compared to similar competition. They certainly deserved their 5* rating.

With the country mainly reliant on oil and gas, the prices of which are likely to remain depressed for the near future, attention turns to the reserves. Basically how much is in the kitty, the degree of liquidity (not easy to get a good price selling a luxury hotel at the moment) and the willingness of the government to pour in money.

Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are integral to their city states and have to be kept going. CX may well be taken over by Air China and SIA is receiving a government bail out. QR may not be so fortunate. The unmentionable airline nearby shows that a government's willingness to keep on pouring billions of dollars into a black hole can't be taken for granted. CX and SIA are ingrained into the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore and are responsible for jobs in other sectors such as tourism, the net economic effect is significant in these cities.

Whereas Singapore without SIA is unthinkable, Qatar without QR as a major world airline isn't. Without a sustained recovery soon and significant state backing, QR is likely to end up like Saudi Arabian Airlines or Kuwait Airways. ie much smaller and catering primarily to locals and migrant workers rather than a major hub and spoke airline.

[TeachMe]

I'm glad some airlines are being good about it. I had a flight to Gatwick on Westjet in April and they, righfully, cancelled the flight but are only giving travel credit. I have wasted too much time with them on this already. If I need to go to small claims court I will, and I will also make sure to never fly them again. They and Air Canada are both bully airlines. My next flight to London may very well be on KLM via Amsterdam. I do not care if it is longer, the cost is the same and the experience is better.

TME

[tdracer]

Two airlines - American and Avianca, agreed to refunds without hassle - easy process, good result. Cubana refunded after deducting a fee, fair enough I guess. Alaska simply walked away with our money.

If you hold any airmiles that can be readily spent on non-aviation products right now, I'd advise spending them. You're an unsecured creditor.

Have you contacted Alaska directly? Their customer service is generally very good, and their website says:
No change/cancellation fees for travel through May 31, 2020. View the details (https://www.alaskaair.com/content/advisories/travel-advisories?int=AS_HomePage_AdvisoryBR_L1||2020_CV_AW||-prodID:Awareness&lid=HomePage_AdvisoryBR_CancelFees#flex). (although in most cases you're talking credit for a future flight, not an outright refund)

If the airline is still around, they won't kill their air miles - the last thing they want to do is alienate their best customers. Of course is the airline goes away all bets are off.

[PeterWeb]

Have you contacted Alaska directly?

Not as yet, but since you mention it I will give it a try. Our flights were booked last year and canceled by me on March 10 when we saw governments starting to close borders. One of the flights was due only three days later. Their website process merely acknowledged what I'd done and I presumed that was that, since at that time the cancellation wasn't of their making.


If the airline is still around, they won't kill their air miles - the last thing they want to do is alienate their best customers. Of course is the airline goes away all bets are off.

Yes indeed on both counts.

[YYZjim]

Pretty much everybody here in Ontario is in stay-at-home mode unless they work in an essential
business. So, I'm sitting at home. All well, but sitting at home nonetheless.

Some months ago, the Mrs. YYZjim scheduled our next cruise - departing from Vancouver in mid-
June. Looks like we had better cancel, even if social distancing is relaxed before then.

I believe everyone is going to catch COVID-19 sooner or later. The best place to suffer
through it is at home, near familiar hospitals, and not in some far-off land. It seems foolish
to catch it while en route somewhere else.

If other vacationers think like me, it's going to take a long time before planes fill up.

Tip: Don't book your plane tickets until after you've booked the virus.

YYZjim

[standbykid]

I had a flight to Gatwick on Westjet in April and they, righfully, cancelled the flight but are only giving travel credit.

Probably claim through your CC company.

[Caroline Lane]

I don't think it will come down to trust A lot seem to be having trouble dealing with this.

Qantas left us stranded in Japan, thank you Alan Joyce, and trying to get hold of Qantas has been impossible. We bought new tickets to get home. Cost us 7.5k in lost accomdation and new flights. It's the price gouging that cheeses me off the most.

But I focus on the way Qantas treats not just us customers but their staff as well who have lost their jobs. Would love to know what Alan is doing with the bailout money from the government. Sure isn't going to staff or customers.

[Chris2303]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12321018

"Covid 19 coronavirus: Air New Zealand slashes jobs, Greg Foran lays it on the line
"In that light, it is clear the Air New Zealand which emerges from Covid-19 is a much smaller airline and could take years to get back to its former size. Therefore, we are planning to be a domestic airline with limited international services to keep supply lines open for the foreseeable future.""

[PeterWeb]

"Therefore, we [Air New Zealand] are planning to be a domestic airline with limited international services to keep supply lines open for the foreseeable future."

Yes, already a majority-government-owned airline and few will be surprised if it is even more so by the time the pandemic subsides. As some have already said, it's entirely possible that most of those left standing will be in the same boat.

[navstar1]

Good news from New Zealand for people trying to get to the UK. Malaysian have just scheduled about 10 flights in April Auckland KL tech stop but no deplaning and on to Heathrow at a sensible price rather than that rip off airline whose name I will not mention who have been charging the most outrageous prices ex. New Zealand to return to the UK. Well done Malaysian you have the support and appreciation of all of us stuck in New Zealand in bringing at last some competition back to the market. Thank you

[marchino61]

Good news from New Zealand for people trying to get to the UK. Malaysian have just scheduled about 10 flights in April Auckland KL tech stop but no deplaning and on to Heathrow at a sensible price rather than that rip off airline whose name I will not mention who have been charging the most outrageous prices ex. New Zealand to return to the UK. Well done Malaysian you have the support and appreciation of all of us stuck in New Zealand in bringing at last some competition back to the market. Thank you

Please name and shame! Was it Qatar?

[SMT Member]

A major risk to airlines in the future will be minimum mandated space per passenger or, if you will, mandated social distancing. The current recommendation in this neck of the woods is 4 square meters per person, which would yield the following maximum capacity for a select few airliners. Please note this does not take into consideration the space needed for galleys and lavatories.

A220-300: 22 pax
A321: 32 pax
787-9: 75 pax
A350-1000: 81 pax

Even if we lower the requirement to 1 or 2 square meters, this will spell the end of commercial aviation as we know it.

[krismiler]

Realistically I can see aircraft being allowed to fly with the middle seat in a row of three being empty, ie 120 seats available in a 180 seat A320. Those in window seats board first, then those in aisle seats. Whilst this would be uneconomical it might be sustainable for a short while. Those travelling would only do so if it was absolutely essential and would need to understand the need for a higher than normal fare.

There are some way out of normal fares and routings showing up on the search engines at the moment with all the groundings and restrictions. Results that were previously right down the bottom of the list and you wondered why they even bothered to show them due to the travel time and cost, are now all that's available.

[wiggy]

Realistically I can see aircraft being allowed to fly with the middle seat in a row of three being empty, ie 120 seats available in a 180 seat A320. Those in window seats board first, then those in aisle seats. Whilst this would be uneconomical it might be sustainable for a short while. Those travelling would only do so if it was absolutely essential and would need to understand the need for a higher than normal fare.


So when all this is over (fingers crossed) the idea being proposed here is that somebody who for example has travelled for the best part of an hour on a crowded poorly ventilated Piccadilly line tube train from say Kings Cross to Heathrow is suddenly entitled to (in relative terms ) oceans of space when they get on board an aircraft..or is the thinking that the likes of TfL, National Express et. al. are also going to rigidly enforce social distancing when we come out of the far side of this pandemic?

(edit to add for the non Brits: TfL = Transport for London, the Agency that runs London's tube/bus network..
National Excess...;sorry Express... major Private bus/coach company)

[hec7or]

It would be fair to say that we have no idea what rules will come into force, but Aviation Authorities and transport Ministers have a habit of imposing restrictions on travellers in order to do something about a threat or to be seen to be doing something, for example the 100ml restriction on fluids carried on board.

I doubt very much that we will go back to business as usual

[GlueBall]

The Covid-19 global "stay-at-home" lock-downs has amplified the work-from-home concept. More people are embracing the concept of less travel. The new bliss is to live, work and play at a nice place where you don't have to fly away from. Cargo flights will boom, but passenger flights will sharply decline in this global recession.

[SMT Member]

Realistically I can see aircraft being allowed to fly with the middle seat in a row of three being empty, ie 120 seats available in a 180 seat A320.

I can't, not if the restriction is 2 square meters or a minimum distance of 1 meter. Given a seat width of around 18 inches, and aisle of the same, and a pitch of 30 inches on a standard A320/737, maximum seat occupancy may well have to look as the following:

1A occupied / 1B empty / 1C empty __ 1D occupied / 1E empty / 1F empty
2A empty / 2B empty / 2C occupied __ 2D empty / 2E empty / 2F occupied

etc., effectively reducing capacity to 1/6 of normal, equivalent to around 30 pax on an A320 / 737-800.

So when all this is over (fingers crossed) the idea being proposed here is that somebody who for example has travelled for the best part of an hour on a crowded poorly ventilated Piccadilly line tube train from say Kings Cross to Heathrow is suddenly entitled to (in relative terms ) oceans of space when they get on board an aircraft..or is the thinking that the likes of TfL, National Express et. al. are also going to rigidly enforce social distancing when we come out of the far side of this pandemic?

(edit to add for the non Brits: TfL = Transport for London, the Agency that runs London's tube/bus network..
National Excess...;sorry Express... major Private bus/coach company)

No. Passengers on the M2 line between Kongens Nytorv and Copenhagen airport will be required to keep the same distance, and it'll be up to the Metro Company to ensure those distances are ensured by restricting the number of passengers allowed on each carriage.

(edit to add for the none Danes: I agree; it's absolutely ridiculous to insert local references to public transport on an international discussion board).

[RoelB]

The Covid-19 global "stay-at-home" lock-downs has amplified the work-from-home concept. More people are embracing the concept of less travel. The new bliss is to live, work and play at a nice place where you don't have to fly away from.

Nah, I don't think so. Work@home is not suited for a majority of folks. I've been in an industry for over 20 years now where all most people need is an internet connection and a decent workstation. I've been mostly working from home for the last 15 years. But still, if I look to other people, most just don't want to work from home. They want to have some structure, get out of the house, be in a social environment and meet coworkers face to face. And don't forget, not everyone - by far - has a decent office space at home, or the possibility to create one. If you live in a tiny apartment, you'll go crazy if you're in there 24/7. And I'ld reckon that that feeling of being closed in between the 4 walls of ones home is what most people will remember from these couple of weeks, not the that working from home is such a great replacement for going to the office.

The same is true for business travel. Yes, a (voice or video) conference is an alternative that is sometimes acceptable, but every once in a while you just need to meetup to maintain a good relationship. People are social animals and technology is just not the same.

[cashash]

The same is true for business travel. Yes, a (voice or video) conference is an alternative that is sometimes acceptable, but every once in a while you just need to meetup to maintain a good relationship. People are social animals and technology is just not the same.

The biggest problem I see with business travel getting back to previous levels in the short to medium term is the ability of companies to get insurance that covers Covid19 for their staff when travelling. If available its going to be very expensive unless a 'cure' is found within a year or two.

[BEA 71]

There was a almost total shutdown after 9/11. After some time business was back to normal. I doubt it will be different this time. With regards to home working I enjoyed saving the fuel costs for not driving to the airport and back. On the downside I realised that there was a danger of losing social contacts. You are ( almost automatically ) out of the game when it comes to new jobs, which often are given through networking. There were people who took advantage of it. Although it made sense, working at home, looking back I would not do it again.

[wiggy]

(edit to add for the none Danes: I agree; it's absolutely ridiculous to insert local references to public transport on an international discussion board).

Regardless of the relevance or not of references to local surface transport the underlying objection to the suggested seating scheme remains:

It's somewhat bizarre to suggest that the authorities should enforce social distancing on passenger flights when it already seems pretty much impossible to meaningfully and rigidly enforce such a policy anywhere else on the entire journey from departure to destination...

[Chris2303]

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/pandemic-cuts-new-aircraft-needs-25-through-2025-analysts-say"A 40% drop in global revenue passenger miles followed by a rapid snap-back and leveling out of 5% year-over-year growth starting in 2023 would cut near-term new-aircraft demand about 25% from pre-coronavirus pandemic estimates, Vertical Research Partners analysts conclude.

Vertical plugged a 40% traffic decline into its model for 2020, with rebounds of 19% next year and 10% in 2022, the company said in a Mar. 30 research note. Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.

On a percentage basis, the reduction would hit narrowbodies and widebodies equally, reducing demand for each category by about 25%. Vertical’s revised analysis shows airlines would need 1,540 fewer narrowbodies and 380 fewer widebodies. "

There's more in the article

[PeterWeb]

It's somewhat bizarre to suggest that the authorities should enforce social distancing on passenger flights when it already seems pretty much impossible to meaningfully and rigidly enforce such a policy anywhere else on the entire journey from departure to destination...

Alternatively, instead of social distancing, those travelling on international flights - at least - get pre-screened as already immune via a five-minute serum antibody test. That might be a feasible starting point for restarting international passenger travel and even some tourism well before a vaccine shows up.

That said, if our efforts to contain the virus via lockdowns are successful, the numbers will be relatively small because most of us won't have caught it.

[kiwi grey]

Good news from New Zealand for people trying to get to the UK. Malaysian have just scheduled about 10 flights in April Auckland KL tech stop but no deplaning and on to Heathrow at a sensible price rather than that rip off airline whose name I will not mention who have been charging the most outrageous prices ex. New Zealand to return to the UK. Well done Malaysian you have the support and appreciation of all of us stuck in New Zealand in bringing at last some competition back to the market. Thank you

That's all very well for any passengers already in Auckland, the big problem is all the others now that that NZ is in lockdown. There are no domestic flights except for 'essential workers', no intercity buses or trains, and long-distance car travel is very much frowned on.
The government is working on a process by which foreign tourists can be safely gathered into embarkation points - Auckland and Christchurch, possibly RNZAF Base Ohakea - for return to their countries of origin. This will need to eliminate or at least drastically reduce the risk of the passenger and all the service staff (cab & bus drivers, hotel staff, customs & immigration officers, baggage handlers & airport counter staff, domestic flight & cabin crew, etc) they'll have to be in contact with being infected. This is a non-trivial exercise and will be expensive to implement.

[Massey058]

Please name and shame! Was it Qatar?

I got told of someone who tried to book an NZ-UK ticket on Qatar in economy and it came out at $85,000!

[nevillestyke]

I got told of someone who tried to book an NZ-UK ticket on Qatar in economy and it came out at $85,000!
There's always the choice of walking.

[Massey058]

There's always the choice of walking.

Apparently they went with American via LA and Dallas I think it was for an awful lot cheaper.

[navstar1]

That's all very well for any passengers already in Auckland, the big problem is all the others now that that NZ is in lockdown. There are no domestic flights except for 'essential workers', no intercity buses or trains, and long-distance car travel is very much frowned on.
The government is working on a process by which foreign tourists can be safely gathered into embarkation points - Auckland and Christchurch, possibly RNZAF Base Ohakea - for return to their countries of origin. This will need to eliminate or at least drastically reduce the risk of the passenger and all the service staff (cab & bus drivers, hotel staff, customs & immigration officers, baggage handlers & airport counter staff, domestic flight & cabin crew, etc) they'll have to be in contact with being infected. This is a non-trivial exercise and will be expensive to implement.

I totally agree at the moment the people in South Island have no options to depart Christchurch for an international flight back home. I know that as soon as it is safe to do so that such flights will come back on but we will all have to be very patient and abide by the stage 4 regulations.

I would like to place on record the extreme kindness and help we have received and continue to do so from the New Zealand people they have been fantastic and we are so grateful.

One point for all you legal experts out there. Have just received a round robin from the chairman of a very well known international airline saying how sorry for cancellations, delays and dropping us all in it etc. It contained the astonishing offer that the unused portions of our tickets will be held as a flight credit on the airline to use by March 21. No mention or offer of a refund instead. My understanding is that in addition to having a duty of care as they cancelled our flights they also MUST offer a full refund for the unused portion of our tickets. Any comments please as I think this is disgraceful.

[navstar1]

I got told of someone who tried to book an NZ-UK ticket on Qatar in economy and it came out at $85,000!
I heard the same thing but not that much but still amazingly high. Interesting to note that I viewed a news report in the last couple of days that Qatar might need government support to continue operations. With prices like that why bother just keep milking the situation.

[Bidule]

I got told of someone who tried to book an NZ-UK ticket on Qatar in economy and it came out at $85,000!

I was not told but checked on QR website. The price is less than 10% of what you were told. It is not Economy as no availability and for the first available flight.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/915x314/2020_04_02_071252_5419d1f686b664329145a380ce54e616dfec0527.j pg

It is always better to check facts before spreading news, and not only for the fares....

.

[Massey058]

I was not told but checked on QR website. The price is less than 10% of what you were told. It is not Economy as no availability and for the first available flight.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/915x314/2020_04_02_071252_5419d1f686b664329145a380ce54e616dfec0527.j pg

It is always better to check facts before spreading news, and not only for the fares....

.

I hear you, but aside from this being a rumour [cough] & news forum of the Professional Pilots Rumour Network I was told this by a someone who is not going to just make stuff up given they were involved in helping someone out. You do realise the complicated revenue management systems airlines use that prices are constantly changing? Also a screenshot of pricing on the 7th of April while cool has no real relevance for something that happened last week. Lastly I don't quite get your math but let's just leave it at that.

It's tough times out there for all of us.

[JPcont]

My guess is that the change is even bigger than we can image. I can see two driving forces: The travelling becomes more cost sensitive and some kind quarantines are here to stay for quite a long time.

The affect to the business travelling will be large. I assume that in, many cases, one must be in a quarantine for half a week and pass couple of healthy examination before entering into a new region. The combination of the quarantine time and the accommodation will cause large changes. At least direct flights will be in danger in thin routes?

The whole dynamics will change but in what direction?

[Sorath]

My guess is that the change is even bigger than we can image. I can see two driving forces: The travelling becomes more cost sensitive and some kind quarantines are here to stay for quite a long time.

The affect to the business travelling will be large. I assume that in, many cases, one must be in a quarantine for half a week and pass couple of healthy examination before entering into a new region. The combination of the quarantine time and the accommodation will cause large changes. At least direct flights will be in danger in thin routes?

The whole dynamics will change but in what direction?
Too much money invested to maim the industry like that... I do see several medical basic checks before intercontinental travel ... but not continental (i.e. European flights, USA domestic, Asian, etc...).
It is probable these checks will be something like, vaccination record up to date and checked at border control, as well as primary health check (high fever and such) at security control... perhaps even quick tests for known diseases (any SARS-CoV2 variant perhaps).
What I do see more common place now will be people wearing face mask, as Asian culture has adopted, in Europe at least. The concern will be real and people will adapt.

9-11 made security increase by a huge factor, this will likely do something similar, some way.... just another way to rack up some coins from citizens by governments imposing some sort of "Medical validity to travel" certificate.

But certainly not imposed quarantines...

[JPcont]

I want to agree you but I don’t think that huge investments made protects the industry any more. The price tag of this crisis is so high.

It might be something like when you arrive home country, you must quarantine yourself for couple of days and in case of any symptoms you have to go to the doctor. That would be semi fine. However, if you restrict your citizen life, you have to restrict alien life even more. That creates a quarantine automatic that nobody wants.

The system would probable not be active all the time (however, just now, long enough to change the industry) but creates a big risk for the travelling industry. It creates new dynamics to the system and the state of the system will change.

At least the tourist industry has a big challenge but they will somehow survive. The travelling salesman problem might not be primarily academic challenge any more rather than: To travel, or not to travel, that is the question: ...

[krismiler]

There was a almost total shutdown after 9/11. After some time business was back to normal.

After the initial shock things quickly recovered, but the major difference here is that people weren’t dying from outbreaks of 9/11 in towns and cities throughout the world. Even New York wasn’t locked down in the days following the attacks, let alone the rest of the world. The daily death toll from COVID-19 is probably exceeding the total death toll from 9/11 with no end in sight.

The damage is much more widespread and extensive, the recovery will take years.

[bringbackthe80s]

No one knows anything this is the brutal truth. Even coming up with a plan b now is proving quite hard to be honest.The only One thing I would wish anyone is to have as much savings as possible in the bank. No investments, hard cash. And even then..

[navstar1]

I totally agree at the moment the people in South Island have no options to depart Christchurch for an international flight back home. I know that as soon as it is safe to do so that such flights will come back on but we will all have to be very patient and abide by the stage 4 regulations.

I would like to place on record the extreme kindness and help we have received and continue to do so from the New Zealand people they have been fantastic and we are so grateful.

One point for all you legal experts out there. Have just received a round robin from the chairman of a very well known international airline saying how sorry for cancellations, delays and dropping us all in it etc. It contained the astonishing offer that the unused portions of our tickets will be held as a flight credit on the airline to use by March 21. No mention or offer of a refund instead. My understanding is that in addition to having a duty of care as they cancelled our flights they also MUST offer a full refund for the unused portion of our tickets. Any comments please as I think this is disgraceful.

An update on the above. The big International airlines are continuing to show confirmed flights on their booking web sites, taking bookings and then cancelling the flights with no explanation and only offering credits for flights in the future. People in this part of the world are starting to obtain a collection of these credits which are absolutely useless in this situation. They are now scared to book flights as they expect the same thing to happen. Surely this situation with flight credits cannot be allowed to continue. Is it not time for the aviation authorities to take firm action to prevent this sort of behaviour ?

[krismiler]

It's a catch 22 for the airlines, if they don't sell future flights then there won't be any passengers on them when they take off but if they do sell tickets the flights may not be allowed to operate. Whilst cash flow needs to be maintained, it shouldn't be at passengers expense. A flight credit is of very little use to someone who needed to travel last week for a specific reason which no longer applies.

Airlines need to guarantee an immediate refund back to the passengers credit card as soon as a cancellation takes place. There are people trying to get home who have endured multiple cancellations and whose credit cards are now maxed out until their money is returned, or who have been offered rebooking within 12 months when they will probably be unable to go anywhere.

Hub airlines will likely suffer more in the aftermath as passengers will want a direct flight between two relatively unaffected countries rather than a transit where they mix with people from all over the world. Countries will recover at different times so for example in six months Australia and the UK may be clear but India and Africa are still badly affected. Emirates may have to fly Sydney - London via Dubai but with the stop in Dubai simply to refuel and change crew, all pax remain onboard and no new pax join the flight. This may build up to limited transits being allowed, but the major crossroads of pax from all over the mixing together will be out for a long time to come.

[navstar1]

Totally agree with the above. As I see it some major airlines are using passengers money as interest free loans with no guarantee as to when or if it will ever be repaid. This situation is NOT acceptable.

[krismiler]

A fair solution would be for the airline to block funds on pax credit cards similarly to hotels and car hire companies. Once the flight departs the airline is credited whether the passenger is onboard or not.

This is fair to both sides as pax aren't charged for flights which are cancelled and airlines know that they will be paid if the flight goes ahead.

Some people may book on two or three airlines in anticipation of cancellations leaving empty seats and then expect refunds.

[Cyberhacker]

The Covid-19 global "stay-at-home" lock-downs has amplified the work-from-home concept.

Realistically, the emphasis for most peeps is the "at home" - with very little of the "work" bit getting done. Yes, some can fully work from home, but not by any means a majority.

[navstar1]

A fair solution would be for the airline to block funds on pax credit cards similarly to hotels and car hire companies. Once the flight departs the airline is credited whether the passenger is onboard or not.

This is fair to both sides as pax aren't charged for flights which are cancelled and airlines know that they will be paid if the flight goes ahead.

Some people may book on two or three airlines in anticipation of cancellations leaving empty seats and then expect refunds.

excellent idea but I bet they would never agree to it as they far prefer to have the money in their bank accounts, The IATA web site is interesting as it defines their altitude to credits rather than refunds at the present time in order to keep airlines in business, Something like $16 billion of customers funds being withheld at the moment an amazing sum, The comments from their twitter feed to the IATA position should make the airlines realise what the travelling public think of their refund policy. It makes very grim reading for them but I doubt if anything will change. To sum up we have been well and truly stuffed.

[kpd]

excellent idea but I bet they would never agree to it as they far prefer to have the money in their bank accounts, The IATA web site is interesting as it defines their altitude to credits rather than refunds at the present time in order to keep airlines in business, Something like $16 billion of customers funds being withheld at the moment an amazing sum, The comments from their twitter feed to the IATA position should make the airlines realise what the travelling public think of their refund policy. It makes very grim reading for them but I doubt if anything will change. To sum up we have been well and truly stuffed.

16 billion dollars is a huge sum for the travelling public to have unintentionally "lent" to the airlines--who of course may not survive- it will take them quite some time to forget that!!!What is the position of the credit card companies in this situation?

[Fluke]

Interesting concepts and ideas on how the international airline future will look. My feeling is that if a vaccine is developed in the next 6 months we will return to air travel procedures much as they were previously. We will all acknowledge the health dangers but lowest price will prevail unfortunately.
If we stay grounded more than 6 months it will be a whole new ballgame. Business and tourist passengers will have gotten used to not flying and the whole experience may need to be justified as a safe and affordable transport option.

[kiwi grey]

I totally agree at the moment the people in South Island have no options to depart Christchurch for an international flight back home. I know that as soon as it is safe to do so that such flights will come back on but we will all have to be very patient and abide by the stage 4 regulations.

According to Simple Flying (https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-airbus-a380-new-zealand/), Lufthansa are flying A380s and B747s into Christchurch as well as Auckland for 'rescue' flights. These flights get a tech stop in Bangkok, but I don't think the SLC are allowed off. That's a l-o-n-g time in Seat 42E

The NZ regulations have now been eased to allow tourists to travel to Auckland or Christchurch if they have a confirmed 'fly home' booking

[navstar1]

According to Simple Flying (https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-airbus-a380-new-zealand/), Lufthansa are flying A380s and B747s into Christchurch as well as Auckland for 'rescue' flights. These flights get a tech stop in Bangkok, but I don't think the SLC are allowed off. That's a l-o-n-g time in Seat 42E

The NZ regulations have now been eased to allow tourists to travel to Auckland or Christchurch if they have a confirmed 'fly home' bookingMany thanks for the info much appreciated. I think the Lufthansa flights are being arranged by the German government to get their nationals back to Germany.Well done to them shame HMG in the UK has not done the same. Meanwhile beautiful weather here think we might stay!

[reverserunlocked]

On the topic of refunds, I had a booking with Lufthansa to Dammam that was cancelled on Mar 13. They offered a full refund or a voucher. I took the refund, which I was told would be processed within 10-15 working days.

As of yet, nothing. Today I called Lufthansa and they said that due to the ‘backlog’, it will take 2-3 MONTHS to be refunded. As sympathetic as I am to plight of the Lufthansa Group, this is clearly a case of sitting on the cash for as long as possible.

[kpd]

On the topic of refunds, I had a booking with Lufthansa to Dammam that was cancelled on Mar 13. They offered a full refund or a voucher. I took the refund, which I was told would be processed within 10-15 working days.

As of yet, nothing. Today I called Lufthansa and they said that due to the ‘backlog’, it will take 2-3 MONTHS to be refunded. As sympathetic as I am to plight of the Lufthansa Group, this is clearly a case of sitting on the cash for as long as possible.
Others have apparently been luckier but I was told refund with BA will be 6-8 weeks. At least both these national carriers are giving actual refunds- you aren't given that option with many so-called major airlines especially in the Middle East.

[foxcharliep2]

Many thanks for the info much appreciated. I think the Lufthansa flights are being arranged by the German government to get their nationals back to Germany.Well done to them shame HMG in the UK has not done the same. Meanwhile beautiful weather here think we might stay!

Indeed they have been arranged by the German Foreign Office or Auswärtiges Amt.
Flights into NZ were flown by Lufthansa B-747-8 with a technical stop in Haneda starting back March 26th.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/994x852/lh_nz_ee4d740757e7a50e1f10bda55da7150fccb83573.png
LH NZ Flights

[reverserunlocked]

Others have apparently been luckier but I was told refund with BA will be 6-8 weeks. At least both these national carriers are giving actual refunds- you aren't given that option with many so-called major airlines especially in the Middle East.

I booked with my Amex card. It appears that you can raise a chargeback with them and they will fairly promptly apply a temporary credit to your account while they sorry it out, which effectively gives you the money back at that point.

My parents are particularly angry with easyJet as not only have they paid for a flight to Portugal next week that has been cancelled, but the website option to ‘rebook another date’ prompted the inputting of my father’s credit card details again. He was then charged in full for the flights for the new date. No word on how he gets his original fare back and of course the call centre is ‘very busy’. Not a good show.

[b1lanc]

American Airlines Flights average scheduled flights operating out of NYC airports between April 2019 and starting April 7, 2020

Airport Last April April 7, 2020
LGA 170 8
JFK 80 3
EWR 21 2

I don't know how quickly the entire infrastructure rebounds from this.

[BEA 71]

Too much money invested to maim the industry like that... I do see several medical basic checks before intercontinental travel ... but not continental (i.e. European flights, USA domestic, Asian, etc...).
It is probable these checks will be something like, vaccination record up to date and checked at border control, as well as primary health check (high fever and such) at security control... perhaps even quick tests for known diseases (any SARS-CoV2 variant perhaps).
What I do see more common place now will be people wearing face mask, as Asian culture has adopted, in Europe at least. The concern will be real and people will adapt.

9-11 made security increase by a huge factor, this will likely do something similar, some way.... just another way to rack up some coins from citizens by governments imposing some sort of "Medical validity to travel" certificate.

But certainly not imposed quarantines...
I remember you had to have a medical certificate from a airline appointed doctor when travelling to the U.S. in the 1960´s. The vaccination pass was required almost everywhere outside Europe.

[jabird]

If this is a stupid question, then please forgive me.
I understand the usual lateral separation of pilots in the cockpit would be about 1m.
I understand MOL has previously referred to the co-pilots as "redundant"
I note FR appear to be flying loops in order to maint the fleet ready for an immediate return to revenue service.

I note the reason why he's doing this, but I am also wondering how this would be defined as essential in comparison with repatriation flights or carrying urgent equipment.
But I also accept FR's model is quire different to even other locos - they regularly rotate a/c between different bases so they can't just define a small portion as "the hub fleet" or even the core fleet.
I don't see any **major** environmental issues with a small number of very short loops, if that in turn prevents the need for future maintenance, which itself often needs 2 dead head sectors (not one), especially as all the other airlines are going to present a massive back log on the facilities that do this. In any normal business situation, airlines will still operate empty sectors as part of pilot training. These machines are usually going to operate 3-5 return sectors per day with high 70s LF, but of coure they are getting lambasted for it.

I'm just wondering if there are any circumstances in which a commercial aircraft can ever be permitted to take off with only one operator at the controls.

I know that's a stupid question to pilots, but I'm not a pilot, just someone who used to have a more regular interest in the industry.

[Turb]

The whole travel industry might be forced to move away from the prepayment model where advance purchase of all kinds of travel, hotels, and package holidays is what funds day-to-day operations. From the customer's point of view an escrow model would be fairer, where the payment secures the promised service but the cash is held by a trusted (!) third party and not released to the service provider until the service has been performed. In the UK I know of one company that already operates like this - "On The Beach" (London: OTB) but it's a stand-out rarity. I know the credit card companies perform the escrow function to a limited extent in some cases, and can bring a service provider down if they judge it's unsafe to release the funds, but most firms in the travel industry rely on the prepayment money for ready cash. That seems to have been what motivated Carnival to continue despatching cruises instead of allowing customers to withdraw and get a refund.

I can't see the industry agreeing to this because it could easily double (or more) their working capital requirements but you couldn't rule out some states demanding that this is what happens.

If the prepayment model is revoked I foresee a much smaller airline industry for quite a long time, and much higher fares. Actually, I think that's the immediate future anyway.

[Richard Dangle]

Realistically, the emphasis for most peeps is the "at home" - with very little of the "work" bit getting done. Yes, some can fully work from home, but not by any means a majority.

Probably not a majority no, but a very significant proportion of the working population will have proved that working from home is highly cost effective and extremely easy. Almost all office based "white collar" jobs can be carried out from home, just as they are doing right now. Technology is going to accelerate that process as developers see the way ahead especially with virtual and augmented reality.

Not everyone wants to work from home, so there will be some balance and push back, but the genie is completely out the bottle. For many workers, working from home will be completely standard clause, especially as "knowledge specialist occupations" always have to relentlessly compete for talent.

Bit of credibilty behind that...I work for a technology company that went full working from home, before the Government instruction, with zero loss of either capability or productivity. I'm dealing daily with solicitors, accoutants and all sorts of finance people, all of whom are working from home and I authored our companies' business continuity plan, so I have a little specialist knowledge in this field.

[covec]

UK Daily Telegraph today.

Quote.

”Air fares could double when lockdown is lifted, making foreign holidays temporarily unaffordable for many British families.

The Telegraph understands ticket prices are set to surge because once non-essential foreign travel is once again allowed, aircraft carriers are likely to be barred from fully filling planes.

This is in order to ensure passengers keep a safe distance from each other while onboard. Last night an industry source said it is expected that aircraft carriers will be given social distancing guidance, which they will be asked to enforce for passengers”.

Unquote.

Posted this elsewhere - I apologise Mods if this is not allowed. And to everyone else.

[bringbackthe80s]

UK Daily Telegraph today.

Quote.

”Air fares could double when lockdown is lifted, making foreign holidays temporarily unaffordable for many British families.

The Telegraph understands ticket prices are set to surge because once non-essential foreign travel is once again allowed, aircraft carriers are likely to be barred from fully filling planes.

This is in order to ensure passengers keep a safe distance from each other while onboard. Last night an industry source said it is expected that aircraft carriers will be given social distancing guidance, which they will be asked to enforce for passengers”.

Unquote.

Posted this elsewhere - I apologise Mods if this is not allowed. And to everyone else.

So this will happen on subways, trains and bars too yes? I’d love to see the effects on the London tube.

[alexd10]

So this will happen on subways, trains and bars too yes? I’d love to see the effects on the London tube.

Not so difficult to make it happen I think..(Where I live trains already sell tickets for half the seats), for the bars there are the doormen to limit no. of people inside and in a subway there is also possibility for limiting access into the stations and into the wagons. There will be many changes in the world we know...

[flocci_non_faccio]

I'm just wondering if there are any circumstances in which a commercial aircraft can ever be permitted to take off with only one operator at the controls.

There are no circumstances under which an aircraft certified with a minimum flight crew of two can legally be flown by one.

[wiggy]

So this will happen on subways, trains and bars too yes? I’d love to see the effects on the London tube.


I'd better start by warning you that I got told off for mentioning the London "Tube" and social distancing by one of our more cosmopolitan posters a while back......

...but I'll stand by what I said in that post and the point you are making..there's a danger of aviation being told to enforce "social distancing theatre"..

It's seems pretty darned pointless to hit the airlines with strict social distancing regulation, perhaps on a less than one hour flight, when prior to that flight a passenger can have been on the tube/bus to the airport for more than an hour, then had a meal in a restaurant land side, then been lined up, mauled and had their possessions dragged through trays in security, then nipped into newsagents and perhaps the "pub" before boarding...and then and only then be forced into rigid social distancing.

For the more cosmopolitan - other cities/means of public transport/ airport terminals can be substituted for the London case.

[cashash]

Not so difficult to make it happen I think..(Where I live trains already sell tickets for half the seats), for the bars there are the doormen to limit no. of people inside and in a subway there is also possibility for limiting access into the stations and into the wagons. There will be many changes in the world we know...


Well we are in the midst of the most devastating pandemic for a 100 years and the Mayor of London who runs the tube system seems unable to ensure that social distancing can occur even when usage has fallen through the floor due to the shutting down of most of the economy.

So on a normal day?