Lossiemouth Upgrades

[NutLoose]

Strange timing? one would have thought this should have been done and completed in time for the first ones arrival, not just starting when it is nearly on its way, or am I missing something?

The project will prepare the base for the arrival of nine P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, the first of which is expected to be delivered in February 2020.
Mott MacDonald will provide design and support services throughout the detailed design, construction, testing and commissioning phases of the project.
The company was awarded the contract by VolkerFitzpatrick.The scope of works includes the renewal of the main and secondary runways and the construction of a new aircraft servicing platform for the P-8As. Also included are associated infrastructure works including lighting, drainage and communications.

Mott MacDonald project manager Simon Nesbitt said: “We are delighted to have been awarded the design contract and will ensure that minimal disruption is caused at RAF Lossiemouth during the works. Mott MacDonald offer the advantage of a local office with previous project experience at RAF Lossiemouth coupled with group-wide expertise in the defence sector as well as airport pavements and associated infrastructure.
”Mott MacDonald said that it will work closely with VolkerFitzpatrick, the Defence Infrastructure Organisation, RAF Lossiemouth, the local community and other stakeholders to ensure that the works are designed and constructed to minimise the impact to everyday station operations and the local community.

The project is due for completion in spring 2021.RAF Lossiemouth is home to four fast-jet squadrons flying the Typhoon and it has been some time since it has regularly operated a larger aircraft such as the P-8A Poseidon. The resurfacing works is one of many improvements being made to future-proof the base for years to come.

The project forms part of the £500m RAF Lossiemouth Development Programme (LDP). Other improvements to follow include accommodation for personnel, a new air traffic control tower, upgrades to drainage and electrical supplies and upgraded facilities for IX (Bomber) Squadron, which moved to the base this year.



https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/mott-macdonald-secures-raf-lossiemouth-contract

[cessnapete]

Surely a waste of money anyway. When Scotland goes Independent we wouldn't want our frontline assets in a foreign country? The aircraft would be relocated in England. As presumably the naval bases.

[thunderbird7]

There's a base near SWAPS inner and outer available....

[XA290]

They have also spent the last few weeks resurfacing the runway at Kinloss at great expense. This is to allow the P8s to operate out of there for a few weeks early next year. Great planning........

[HAS59]

cessnapete (https://www.pprune.org/members/95137-cessnapete),
We've had our frontline assets in foreign countries before when facing a threat. RAF Germany worked fine, if Scotland (and Wales) went independent then RAF Scotland (RAF Wales) would work just as well.
There's no need to move everything back to an independent little England for it to work.

[Dominator2]

HAS59

You seem to forget, the reason RAFG existed was to face a very real threat. Some to provide Air Defence and some to get them in range of their targets in the East.

If Scotland leaves the UK it would be a totally different situation. We would have little reason to maintain our Front Line forces in Scotland.

Give them the Hawk T1 fleet and let them get on with it. I'm sure that the European Army will defend them. That is of course if Scotland were ever accepted into the EU. I believe their economics are rather suspect!

[HEDP]

It would be interesting to see the divorce bill that Scotland would have to pay lol

[Asturias56]

They won't pay - after all they have the excellent example of the current UK PM threatening to just walk away from obligations in a political divorce.

[chevvron]

They have also spent the last few weeks resurfacing the runway at Kinloss at great expense. This is to allow the P8s to operate out of there for a few weeks early next year. Great planning........



Hadn't looked at Kinloss on ZoomEarth for a while; I see it's acquired a 'spare' runway parallel to and north of the main runway.
ZoomEarth shows a more recent picture of Lossie than GE with the building work north side clearly visible; on GE there's nothing there.

[Yellow Sun]

Hadn't looked at Kinloss on ZoomEarth for a while; I see it's acquired a 'spare' runway parallel to and north of the main runway

Emergency runway on the parallel taxiway. Came in as a component of ASM programme in the mid 1980s.

YS

[HAS59]

Dominator2 (https://www.pprune.org/members/232185-dominator2)
If you think that we are not facing a very real threat from the North and East then you clearly have not been paying attention.
The reason for the RAF to have a base so far north is to be nearer to the Greenland-Iceland Faeroe Gaps.
The ability to have QRA North nearer to where a great deal of 'trade' is practiced may also be noteworthy.
These are not just 'Our' Front-line Forces, but are a part of NATO's overall force distribution.

By parking everything in just a handful of English bases is just not seeing the bigger picture.

(the last line in your previous comment was an attempt at mirth wasn't it?)

[KPax]

In fact the threat from up north is so serious, Keflavik might get some temporary residents in the near future a a guess

[6foottanker]

One major benefit is that Lossie will in the future be able to take Voyager - something that currently means every large Lossie Sqn move has to be done through Brize or occasionally Prestwick. This inevitably means a very long journey for the guys and gals after long flights when landing in the U.K. For those that are already far from home, every little bit of morale helps, and this has been an issue for some time.

Yes, Voyager has been in a few times before, but it either has to be towed at walking pace around the airfield (blacking the Q runway in the meantime) and pushed back onto the threshold to start, or has to be flown by an instructor because there is no suitable turnpad and anyway, the regs changed so the runway’s now too narrow for a 180 turn.

[BEagle]

When FSTA boiled down to A330 or B767, the RAF was assured that the dimensions of the A330 "...wouldn't be a significant limitation".

Brize to RAF Wattisham was bad enough by MT, but Brize to Lossie?

[bridgets boy]

Brize to Bruggen at least once, after the boys had flown over Bruggen on their way back from Northern Watch...

[vascodegama]

BEags it depends what you mean by "significant limitation" it is a bit of an open ended statement. Tristar policy was generally main base so nothing new there.

[BEagle]

BEags it depends what you mean by "significant limitation" it is a bit of an open ended statement. Tristar policy was generally main base so nothing new there.

But back then the VC10 was also available - it's only since the Voyager has replaced both TriStar and VC10 that the problem has become more significant, although it might have been less so with the 767, perhaps? Not that the 767 on offer would have been anything as like as good a tanker though - rather the point of FSTA!

Of course those nice 1Gp AARCs could often be persuaded to sanction a returning VC10K to drop off the 'role support personnel' on a trail at their own base, fuel permitting. With the added benefit of no HMRC needed back at Brize.

Luftwaffe mates who've flown from Cologne to the Land of Sand in the back of an A400M tell me that the only benefit is that at least it isn't as slow as the Transall was.

[alwayslookingup]

HAS59

You seem to forget, the reason RAFG existed was to face a very real threat. Some to provide Air Defence and some to get them in range of their targets in the East.

If Scotland leaves the UK it would be a totally different situation. We would have little reason to maintain our Front Line forces in Scotland.

Give them the Hawk T1 fleet and let them get on with it. I'm sure that the European Army will defend them. That is of course if Scotland were ever accepted into the EU. I believe their economics are rather suspect!
Scotland will not be leaving the UK. The union of England and Scotland is called Great Britain (Article 1, Act of Union, 1707). The term United Kingdom comes from the union of Great Britain and Ireland in 1800, since the partition of Ireland in 1922 the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Upon England gaining its independence from Scotland, the latter will qualify for circa 10% of the joint assets that have accrued in the 300 or so years the Union has persisted. This will include Defence assets. My question at times like this is, how would an independent England propose to defend itself from a real and growing threat from the north? QRA from Leeming is not very Q. In reality Lossie will continue to operate, as will Kinloss, Leuchars, Macrihanish, Tain, Saxa Vord, Faslane and Coulport, plus the shedloads of low flying areas on land and out over Scottish Coastal waters.

There will be either joint operating agreements or rental / leasing arrangements in place. Re NATO, how would one propose the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation operates without one of the most strategic land areas in the north Atlantic?

Re the EU, plenty of European partners have already indicated a smooth passage for an independent Scotland to rejoin as a successor state of a current member state. In reality, if Brexit goes ahead, the Westminster government is facing a nightmare scenario of IndyRef2 securing independence for Scotland and rejoining the EU fairly quickly. English and Welsh Companies then wishing to trade in the EU with no barriers would then relocate to Scotland. Oh, and for good measure, a border poll in Ireland would result in THAT country being reunited. One really should be careful what one wishes for.

[HAS59]

alwayslookingup (https://www.pprune.org/members/183409-alwayslookingup)
Good dit
You forgot to mention the Wales and Berwick Act 1746 in the union. As far as Wales goes ... it lasted until the Welsh Language Act in 1967.
As for my awkward little hometown (Berwick upon Tweed) the act was still in force until 1978 when Berwick was placed in England (for now as we say)
A hard border from Berwick to Carlisle would be a nightmare to set up and control. I suspect a return of Reiving would ensue.

You hit the nail squarely on the head with your post though.
I'm pretty sure that the RAF/Army/Navy will be in Scotland, whatever the politics, it just makes good military sense.

[alwayslookingup]

alwayslookingup (https://www.pprune.org/members/183409-alwayslookingup)
Good dit
You forgot to mention the Wales and Berwick Act 1746 in the union. As far as Wales goes ... it lasted until the Welsh Language Act in 1967.
As for my awkward little hometown (Berwick upon Tweed) the act was still in force until 1978 when Berwick was placed in England (for now as we say)
A hard border from Berwick to Carlisle would be a nightmare to set up and control. I suspect a return of Reiving would ensue.

You hit the nail squarely on the head with your post though.
I'm pretty sure that the RAF/Army/Navy will be in Scotland, whatever the politics, it just makes good military sense.
Thanks. While I support Scotland being Independent and in full control of our resources, I also realise that in the modern world, to prosper we would need to be in any number of political, economic and military alliances. That's the way it is, which is why the current move to exit the EU is such insanity. We have a large potential enemy in the name of a certain ex KGB Colonel so must work together to ensure he doesn't prevail. And, to return to the OP, Lossie will have a large part to play in that strategy!!

[langleybaston]

They won't pay - after all they have the excellent example of the current UK PM threatening to just walk away from obligations in a political divorce.
They would lose the annual £2000 per head subsidy currently shipped north.
When there is /if there is a second indyref, I demand a vote.

[NutLoose]

But surely that depends on several factors, I foresee if Scotland splits away from the Union then the rest of the U.K. will enter into negotiations as to where and what we will provide or not and that it will be tied to assurances over the likes of Faslane. Which the SNP have already made clear they want shot off.

[NutLoose]

Berwick to Carlisle is NOT the border, that border was the Roman one, The border is about 8 miles North of Carlisle nr Gretna.
I know because I originate from there, our family name is one of the families that hark back to the Border Rievers, a bunch of murderous cutthroat borderers that used to roam the lowlands of Scotland, raping and pillaging the local Scottish population.... If they do get independence, one does wonder if the family can take up their old trade again :p

[alwayslookingup]

They would lose the annual £2000 per head subsidy currently shipped north.
When there is /if there is a second indyref, I demand a vote.
Your authority for this figure of £2000 is? And, why do you demand a vote in IndyRef2? Here's a thought. Instead of having a second independence referendum, why doesn't the Westminster parliament simply legislate to split up the union if Scotland is such a drain on resources? Think how rich and powerful an Independent England would be on its own.

[tucumseh]

Getting back to Nutloose's original observation, RAF planners and DE&S procurers are in a difficult position.

Many of them will still recall that one of the successful components of the RMPA/Nimrod 2000/Nimrod MRA4 programme (a relative term, given it was a certainty to fail) was the infrastructure at Kinloss, much of which was on schedule when (at various times) the programme was extended, and finally cancelled. (It remains unclear if the huge cost of this was included in the headline ~£4Bn waste).

Given the tendency of the Services to change requirements, sometimes with legitimate reason, such background, but still fundamental, tasks are fraught with the risk that they may be rendered redundant before being put to use. My guess is this was all recognised and a decision made not to commit too early.

[andrewn]

Getting back to Nutloose's original observation, RAF planners and DE&S procurers are in a difficult position.

Many of them will still recall that one of the successful components of the RMPA/Nimrod 2000/Nimrod MRA4 programme (a relative term, given it was a certainty to fail) was the infrastructure at Kinloss, much of which was on schedule when (at various times) the programme was extended, and finally cancelled. (It remains unclear if the huge cost of this was included in the headline ~£4Bn waste).

Given the tendency of the Services to change requirements, sometimes with legitimate reason, such background, but still fundamental, tasks are fraught with the risk that they may be rendered redundant before being put to use. My guess is this was all recognised and a decision made not to commit too early.

I think its even simpler than that. The decision to procure Poseidon OTS, off the back of an existing USN order, essentially meant the lead time between order and delivery was much shorter than would typically be the case, if we'd had a long winded procurement, bespoke purchase, etc.

Then factor in the time to firm up a basing decision, draw up requirements, let the contracts, start building, and you end up where we are today.

[M609]

In fact the threat from up north is so serious, Keflavik might get some temporary residents in the near future a a guess

You do know there are temporary air policing dets at Keflavik all the time? Most recent Italian F-35As.

[Asturias56]

Perhaps re-base to the Shetlands............

[Asturias56]

PEDANT ALERT

"Berwick to Carlisle is NOT the border, that border was the Roman one,"

Wrong Nut - the original Roman border was Hadrian's Wall from west of Carlisle to Wallsend along the N side of the Tyne Valley . Then for about 80 years it ran across the center of Scotland at the Roman turf Wall.

Berwick never featured on any Roman border

The current border was, and is, really a line along the high ground - for years it was a "debatable land" and kings of Scotland & England owned land on either side of the current line

[tucumseh]

I think its even simpler than that. The decision to procure Poseidon OTS, off the back of an existing USN order, essentially meant the lead time between order and delivery was much shorter than would typically be the case, if we'd had a long winded procurement, bespoke purchase, etc.

Then factor in the time to firm up a basing decision, draw up requirements, let the contracts, start building, and you end up where we are today.

Yes, agreed, perfectly valid points and likely. Nevertheless, the approval to commit funding would not (should not) be granted until all the ducks are lined up. The cunning procurement strategy for the aircraft would have to be accompanied by a viable plan on how to put them to use and support them. Otherwise, no Technical and Financial Approval (a technical function) or Financial Endorsement (a financial function). Someone (God -1) has agreed this timing quite some time ago and decided to live with any hassle. Get the contract let in case Jeremy gets in!

[NutLoose]

PEDANT ALERT

"Berwick to Carlisle is NOT the border, that border was the Roman one,"

Wrong Nut - the original Roman border was Hadrian's Wall from west of Carlisle to Wallsend along the N side of the Tyne Valley . Then for about 80 years it ran across the center of Scotland at the Roman turf Wall.

Berwick never featured on any Roman border

The current border was, and is, really a line along the high ground - for years it was a "debatable land" and kings of Scotland & England owned land on either side of the current line

I know, I don't know why I copied his Berwick over, I was thinking football as it is a English team in the Scottish league as it was easier to travel too. At my end it finishes at Bowness on Sands if you want to be precise which is next to Port Carlisle.
It is about 200 yards from my late mums house and I used to drive / walk over it every day for the first 16 years of my life.

As for the floating border, at one time it was just outside Derby.

https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofScotland/The-Border-Reivers/

but hey ho, back on subject

[tucumseh]

PEDANT ALERT



Bigger pedant. Shetland. Kings (and Queens) of Scots.

Sorry to any Jocks if I've got that wrong. As an Irishman brought up in Scotland, I only have the right to be both vague and mean.

[flighthappens]

You do know there are temporary air policing dets at Keflavik all the time? Most recent Italian F-35As.

not even most recent... the RAF are their now...

https://www.janes.com/article/92569/raf-deploys-typhoons-to-iceland

[Union Jack]

But surely that depends on several factors, I foresee if Scotland splits away from the Union then the rest of the U.K. will enter into negotiations as to where and what we will provide or not and that it will be tied to assurances over the likes of Faslane. Which the SNP have already made clear they want shot off.

Speaking as someone who has spent quite some time there, Nutty, I really feel that's a little too drastic!:D

Jack (aka Jock)

[AnglianAV8R]

PEDANT ALERT

"Berwick to Carlisle is NOT the border, that border was the Roman one,"

Wrong Nut - the original Roman border was Hadrian's Wall from west of Carlisle to Wallsend along the N side of the Tyne Valley . Then for about 80 years it ran across the center of Scotland at the Roman turf Wall.

Berwick never featured on any Roman border

The current border was, and is, really a line along the high ground - for years it was a "debatable land" and kings of Scotland & England owned land on either side of the current line Then there's the Antonine Wall.

[Union Jack]

PEDANT ALERT

"Berwick to Carlisle is NOT the border, that border was the Roman one,"

Wrong Nut - the original Roman border was Hadrian's Wall from west of Carlisle to Wallsend along the N side of the Tyne Valley . Then for about 80 years it ran across the center of Scotland at the Roman turf Wall.

Berwick never featured on any Roman border

The current border was, and is, really a line along the high ground - for years it was a "debatable land" and kings of Scotland & England owned land on either side of the current line

Then there's the Antonine Wall.

Like wot Asturias sed....

Jack

[Alan Baker]

But surely that depends on several factors, I foresee if Scotland splits away from the Union then the rest of the U.K. will enter into negotiations as to where and what we will provide or not and that it will be tied to assurances over the likes of Faslane. Which the SNP have already made clear they want shot off.

The SNPs manifesto for independence at the referendum clearly stated that they intend to have their own Scottish armed forces, including a squadron of Typhoons, a squadron of Hercules' and a few frigates, as well as the traditional Scottish army regiments. The problem with this is that the majority of personnel at Scottish RAF bases are English, they are there because they were posted there. I doubt that there are enough Scottish Typhoon pilots in the RAF to man a squadron, even if they wanted to join the Scottish Air Force.

[Video Mixdown]

a squadron of Typhoons, a squadron of Hercules' and a few frigates, as well as the traditional Scottish army regiments.

Where do SNP get the idea that they'll be given these assets? They belong to the UK, and will still do so after Scotland has departed.

[HAS59]

Video Mixdown (https://www.pprune.org/members/324931-video-mixdown),

I guess the Scottish Independence Party (for that is what they are) think that because income tax raised in Scotland was used (in part) to buy these defence assets, that have some ownership of them.
As many have pointed out, there is a manning issue. There are, I suspect too few people trained in the broad range of skills required who would wish to locate in Alba.
This could be rectified in time, but it would entail a 'Free Scotland' to either set up training schools or pay for the tuition at English, or other units.
Their 'wish list' of assets to which they feel 'entitled to' are beyond what they have costed in terms of setting up and running.
Like most of their manifesto ... it is deeply flawed.

[Video Mixdown]

Video Mixdown (https://www.pprune.org/members/324931-video-mixdown),
I guess the Scottish Independence Party (for that is what they are) think that because income tax raised in Scotland was used (in part) to buy these defence assets, that have some ownership of them.

Agreed, but it’s equally possible to argue that being a member of an organisation that has used your membership fees to buy assets doesn’t entitle you to take a portion of those assets with you if you decide to leave. I agree with you about the SNP manifesto - it’s a pity that it gets so little real scrutiny.

Best regards from another ex-denizen of HAS59!

[nimrodel]

Can I ask where you guys get the impression that Scotland wants Independence?

The SNP do, but in a referendum in 2014, 52% of people voted to stay as part of the UK/GB, call it what you will.

Ms Sturgeon, and her hordes of 16 and 17 year old numpties who were allowed to vote in that ref. seem to think it's a done deal - but as far as most sensible people are concerned, it's not.

Anyway, if she gets her way (and please Boris, don't let her), and she loses again, we'll have another shot in four or five years. It's like kids who want a sweetie, and don't get it - they keep saying 'please, please, please' until they get their own way, and so much for the last 'once in a generation ref.

As Ruth Davidson ( former leader of Conservatives In Scotland) said of wee Nic 'she goes to sleep thinking of ways to get Scotland Independence, and wakes up thinking the same' - never bothering about things like education, health service, etc, that a Government is supposed to bother about.

Rant over.

[alwayslookingup]

Video Mixdown (https://www.pprune.org/members/324931-video-mixdown),

I guess the Scottish Independence Party (for that is what they are) think that because income tax raised in Scotland was used (in part) to buy these defence assets, that have some ownership of them.
As many have pointed out, there is a manning issue. There are, I suspect too few people trained in the broad range of skills required who would wish to locate in Alba.
This could be rectified in time, but it would entail a 'Free Scotland' to either set up training schools or pay for the tuition at English, or other units.
Their 'wish list' of assets to which they feel 'entitled to' are beyond what they have costed in terms of setting up and running.
Like most of their manifesto ... it is deeply flawed.
As always, there are many more questions than answers before we can have a clear picture. Many of these questions are contained in this parliamentary paper. One thing is for sure, however, if a newly independent England wishes to maintain an independent submarine based nuclear deterrent, there will be a massive cost of replacing or renewing the Clyde facilities (Faslane & Coulport) in say Portsmouth or Devonport. As with all splits, there will be NEGOTIATIONS on an equitable split of joint assets, but at the moment I'd say Scotland has something of an advantage. As I posited in a previous post above, where would independent England locate its QRA? QRA from Leeming to the northern North Sea wouldn't be very 'Q'.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeconaf/152/15208.htm

[NutLoose]

One thing is for sure, however, if a newly independent England wishes to maintain an independent submarine based nuclear deterrent,

Cough.. Cough, surely we will still be a United Kingdom, simply sans one member.
Remember, it's you leaving us, not us leaving you :)

[SamYeager]

Agreed, but it’s equally possible to argue that being a member of an organisation that has used your membership fees to buy assets doesn’t entitle you to take a portion of those assets with you if you decide to leave.
Although somewhat off-topic I believe that the UK's argument that their contributions towards the costs of building various EU buildings should be put against the amount that we supposedly owed the EU didn't get very far.

[alwayslookingup]

Cough.. Cough, surely we will still be a United Kingdom, simply sans one member.
Remember, it's you leaving us, not us leaving you :)
A "United Kingdom" of what? The Union of England and Scotland from 1707 is called Great Britain (Article 1, Act of Union, 1707). Great Britain united with Ireland (then one single country) in 1800 to become the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Upon partition of Ireland in 1922 this became the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. If Scotland and England split, Great Britain ceases to exist. So what would you call what's left? Bear in mind the real possibility of an executed Brexit leading to a reunited Ireland (where demographically the population will anyway be majority Catholic by 2025).

[alwayslookingup]

Can I ask where you guys get the impression that Scotland wants Independence?

The SNP do, but in a referendum in 2014, 52% of people voted to stay as part of the UK/GB, call it what you will.

Ms Sturgeon, and her hordes of 16 and 17 year old numpties who were allowed to vote in that ref. seem to think it's a done deal - but as far as most sensible people are concerned, it's not.

Anyway, if she gets her way (and please Boris, don't let her), and she loses again, we'll have another shot in four or five years. It's like kids who want a sweetie, and don't get it - they keep saying 'please, please, please' until they get their own way, and so much for the last 'once in a generation ref.

As Ruth Davidson ( former leader of Conservatives In Scotland) said of wee Nic 'she goes to sleep thinking of ways to get Scotland Independence, and wakes up thinking the same' - never bothering about things like education, health service, etc, that a Government is supposed to bother about.

Rant over.
Little bit insulting to 16 & 17 year olds. In actual fact, at the time of the 2014 Referendum there were many mock referenda in schools around Scotland. It might surprise you to learn that the school votes were almost all 50:50 on the Scottish Independence issue. They do have minds of their own and are able to use them, despite your trite little comment.

[NutLoose]

A "United Kingdom" of what? The Union of England and Scotland from 1707 is called Great Britain (Article 1, Act of Union, 1707). Great Britain united with Ireland (then one single country) in 1800 to become the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Upon partition of Ireland in 1922 this became the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. If Scotland and England split, Great Britain ceases to exist. So what would you call what's left? Bear in mind the real possibility of an executed Brexit leading to a reunited Ireland (where demographically the population will anyway be majority Catholic by 2025).

I'm sure the Welsh will appreciate you wiping them off the map and also out of the U.K

[shotleylad]

You presume wrong.

[NutLoose]

?
..................

[Mil-26Man]

When Scotland goes Independent we wouldn't want our frontline assets in a foreign country?

We've had our frontline assets in foreign countries before when facing a threat. RAF Germany worked fine, if Scotland (and Wales) went independent then RAF Scotland (RAF Wales) would work just as well.


These aren't England's assets I'm afraid chaps, but the UK's. If the UK were to dissolve then these UK assets would likely have to be divvied-up between the (former) constituent members, as was the case for the Soviet Union/Yugoslavia etc.

In these cases this was mostly done on a 'whatever's on your territory is yours' kind-of-a-fashion. On that basis, the P-8s would be Scotland's.

[HAS59]

Mil-26Man (https://www.pprune.org/members/356842-mil-26man)
Flawed logic there old chap ... The UK Independent Deterrent is in Scottish territory - there's no way that this asset would end up in Scottish hands, nor would Scotland get the P-8 Fleet. The model that works is that of 'UK' assets based in former UK locations, owned by UK but providing local revenue for the host nation.
In any 'divvied-up' scenario see post 18 above for some light on the subject.

[campbeex]

The SNP do, but in a referendum in 2014, 52% of people voted to stay as part of the UK/GB, call it what you will.


It was 55%. You appear to be getting your referendum results confused.

[Mil-26Man]

Mil-26Man (https://www.pprune.org/members/356842-mil-26man)
Flawed logic there old chap ... The UK Independent Deterrent is in Scottish territory - there's no way that this asset would end up in Scottish hands, nor would Scotland get the P-8 Fleet. The model that works is that of 'UK' assets based in former UK locations, owned by UK but providing local revenue for the host nation.
In any 'divvied-up' scenario see post 18 above for some light on the subject.

I agree with all of that (except your flawed logic opening gambit). They are all UK assets, not English ones. My point was that if the UK dissolves (ie, not just Scotland leaves but the UK ceases to be), these shared UK assets do not automatically or legally revert to becoming English assets, as seemed to be the suggestion being made in some of the earlier posts. If that wasn't the suggestion, then no harm.

[Union Jack]

Although somewhat off-topic I believe that the UK's argument that their contributions towards the costs of building various EU buildings should be put against the amount that we supposedly owed the EU didn't get very far.

On the contrary - I believe that that is a perfectly valid "EU approved" precedent to be quoted - if and when!

Jack

[alwayslookingup]

I'm sure the Welsh will appreciate you wiping them off the map and also out of the U.K
So, enlighten me then. Because I was always under the impression Wales is a principality, of England, hence the Prince of Wales. Or am I wrong?

[alwayslookingup]

Mil-26Man (https://www.pprune.org/members/356842-mil-26man)
Flawed logic there old chap ... The UK Independent Deterrent is in Scottish territory - there's no way that this asset would end up in Scottish hands, nor would Scotland get the P-8 Fleet. The model that works is that of 'UK' assets based in former UK locations, owned by UK but providing local revenue for the host nation.
In any 'divvied-up' scenario see post 18 above for some light on the subject.
I hate to say, but if Scotland becomes Independent and the SNP is successful in the ensuing General Election, then negotiations will immediately commence on the continued status of the submarine based nuclear deterrent based in Scottish waters. As I discussed above, if the fleet and operations were to be relocated south of the border, an independent England would have to finance the leasing/replacement of the four subs, the warhead handling facility (currently Coulport) and the dock/refit area, Faslane, and the ship lift. Cost of this will run into billions, difficult when Englands economy and GDP will automatically reduce by circa 8.5% on becoming independent. And that doesn't take into account the loss of approx 80% of the oil and gas reserves that will devolve to Scotland. Instead of making silly statements on providence and divvy up of joint assets, why not get into a negotiation mode? And, as I've said at least twice above, how will a newly independent England mount a QRA from within its own borders? QRA from Leeming wouldn't be very Q.

[Jackonicko]

You forgot to mention the Wales and Berwick Act 1746 in the union. As far as Wales goes ... it lasted until the Welsh Language Act in 1967.
As for my awkward little hometown (Berwick upon Tweed) the act was still in force until 1978 when Berwick was placed in England (for now as we say)


Thought Berwick became English in 1482 when Richard, Duke of Gloucester (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Gloucester) (later Richard III (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_III_of_England)) recaptured the town (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Berwick_(1482)).....?

[Jackonicko]

Can I ask where you guys get the impression that Scotland wants Independence?

The SNP do, but in a referendum in 2014, 52% of people voted to stay as part of the UK/GB, call it what you will.

In 2014 45% of Scots who voted, voted for independence. Five years on, the Scots have seen Brexit 'imposed' by the English, and five more years of 'Tory austerity', my impression is that support for independence and hostility to the Union has increased pretty markedly. Has it tipped as far as 51%? No-one knows for sure, but I suspect that in any Indyref 2, Sturgeon would get her way, unless it happens to coincide with the trial of the odious Mr Salmond........

[Richard Dangle]

As jolly as all this politics stuff is :) any chance of an actual update on the matter in hand, from an old ex-kipper mate?

Specifically, when do we expect to sent the first operational sortie out of Lossie?

Since I know people can be a bit slippery with the "truth" in these days of fake news, maybe it would be of help if I set down my own (very personal) definition of what a proper operational sortie is...

A bunch of guys n gals living on or near said RAF base pitch up at oh oh god it's early to get briefed by a bunch of other guys n gals also living on or near said RAF Base.

Said bunch bus out and strap on their shiny new four-jet, which has been prepped by a bunch of other guys n gals... (you get the picture)

Some long, or not so long, hours later, shiny new four-jet arrives home and one bunch is debriefed by another bunch.

The flying bunch head to scruffs bar (or bars, if our bunch is still mixed rank) for a proper debrief.

Some hours later, smelling of curry, beer and whatever the shiny new jet uses for hydraulic power, our heroic bunch arrive home and try and convince their wives, husband, mixed-gender partners, to bump uglies.

With mixed success.

So when is this expected to happen for the first time?

[esscee]

Mentioning Salmon and Sturgeon in the same sentence gives the impression that there is something "fishy" about the SNP. Wonder what the next SNP leader's name might be?

[treadigraph]

How about Roe?

[alwayslookingup]

How about Roe?
"Cherry", as in The Honourable and Learned Joanna Cherry, QC, MP. At least it would continue the food theme.

[alwayslookingup]

In 2014 45% of Scots who voted, voted for independence. Five years on, the Scots have seen Brexit 'imposed' by the English, and five more years of 'Tory austerity', my impression is that support for independence and hostility to the Union has increased pretty markedly. Has it tipped as far as 51%? No-one knows for sure, but I suspect that in any Indyref 2, Sturgeon would get her way, unless it happens to coincide with the trial of the odious Mr Salmond........
There has been five local authority by elections in Scotland in the last month. The SNP has come first in four of them, second in the other, three of them were SNP gains from other parties, two were holds. The poll on 12th December will be interesting. I mean, it's not exactly as if the SNP are hiding their wish for Independence, only to spring it when elected, unlike the Lib Dems who said no tuition fees only to support them when the chips were down. Except in Scotland, of course.

[alwayslookingup]

In 2014 45% of Scots who voted, voted for independence. Five years on, the Scots have seen Brexit 'imposed' by the English, and five more years of 'Tory austerity', my impression is that support for independence and hostility to the Union has increased pretty markedly. Has it tipped as far as 51%? No-one knows for sure, but I suspect that in any Indyref 2, Sturgeon would get her way, unless it happens to coincide with the trial of the odious Mr Salmond........
The SNP gained the most votes and most Scottish seats in Scotland in the UK General Elections of 2015 & 2017, Scottish Parliament Election 2016 and European Election 2019. And it's not exactly a secret what the SNP wishes to succeed with.

[Jambo Jet]

Would be interested to know just how many servicemen would be happy just to switch to the Scottish Royal Air Force after a successful Independence process? Pay, pensions, opportunities, location -there are many things that would need to be more attractive than they currently are for any Scotsman or Englishman being induced to serve in the SRAF. I think there might be an exodus of personnel to pastures south of Hadrians wall. I don't think there is much support for an independent Scotland for those Scots currently serving in the RAF. I know I wouldn't fancy it!

[alwayslookingup]

Would be interested to know just how many servicemen would be happy just to switch to the Scottish Royal Air Force after a successful Independence process? Pay, pensions, opportunities, location -there are many things that would need to be more attractive than they currently are for any Scotsman or Englishman being induced to serve in the SRAF. I think there might be an exodus of personnel to pastures south of Hadrians wall. I don't think there is much support for an independent Scotland for those Scots currently serving in the RAF. I know I wouldn't fancy it!
That's fine, JJ. But at least you are aware of the issues that would need to be covered and opened up to any future discussions. Nobody has any definitive answers to the questions you have posed, but at least you are a little bit more open minded to it than some of the previous posters above. One last point, I'm not sure it would be called the Scottish Royal Air Force. There's no denying the affection a great many Scots have for the Queen, me included, nationalist or unionist. But as for the rest of the shower....

[Jambo Jet]

It would be interesting to see what wee Jimmy Crankie has to say for herself if someone asks during these upcoming leader debates "Defence for an Independent Scotland...Hows that going to transition then?"

[dctyke]

It would be interesting to see what wee Jimmy Crankie has to say for herself if someone asks during these upcoming leader debates "Defence for an Independent Scotland...Hows that going to transition then?"

They don’t even know how car tax and mot’s would so no chance on defence.

[HAS59]

Thought Berwick became English in 1482 when Richard, Duke of Gloucester (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Gloucester) (later Richard III (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_III_of_England)) recaptured the town (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Berwick_(1482)).....?


An interesting Wikipedia link, thank you. I know this is ‘thread drift’ but I am honour and duty bound to reply …

We Berwickers are aware that the town has changed hands between Scotland and England thirteen times (so far).
It is one of the four original Scottish Burghs and became an English Borough with a different status to all the others.
The unique situation of divided loyalties and legal institutions lead to the town being included as a separate entity (along with Wales) in documents and ceremonies such as the coronation of English Monarchs.
As the town was last seized in 1482 under conditions of blackmail there are many who doubt the legal nature of its transition.
Of interest the river Tweed which runs through it is by legal definition a Scottish river in its entirety and all activity on it, and on either bank are subject to Scots law.
It only ceased to be a Royal Borough in 2009 as part of the wider structural changes to local government in England which saw the town being handed over to Northumberland County Council.
This was the latest bad move as the Geordie council have never understood Berwick and have neglected it ever since.

The story continues …

[HAS59]

In 2014 45% of Scots who voted, voted for independence. ........
More drifting ...
It's an awkward question but what is meant by Scots?
There are no accepted legal definitions of what is or is not 'Scots'. I know there is a difference between 'Scotch Beef' and 'Scottish Beef' but as for the people well ...
There was such a long and difficult legal battle to get the wording right for the Indi Ref of 2014. As there was no authoritative answer the fudge was proposed 'The People of Scotland' which was taken to be anyone, regardless of place of origin who was residing within the legal boundaries of the territorial lands of Scotland on a given date. It also excluded any person born within those boundaries who was living elsewhere.
It stems from there being NO Scottish people as a race. They/we are tribal by nature (Clans) - the latest of which is Polish - there are distinct religious divides (ever been to Glasgow?).
There is a clear 'us and them' when it comes to the 'central corridor' and anywhere else. Highlands and Islands are culturally different to Borderers and so the mix goes on - each with a locally defined sense of identity.
I may be wrong but my understanding is that the Scottish clans have never, ever, united for anything in their history. They/we will however at the drop of a bonnet unite against anything overtly English (1966 and Thatcher immediately spring to mind).

It may be simple when viewed from outside to think of Scots as being simply 'of Scotland' ... it's not, the people of Scotland are not united.

[Wrathmonk]

They do have minds of their own and are able to use them, despite your trite little comment.

Unless of course if they were 16 or 17 and decided, of their own free will, to go and join ISIS.....only to lose the battle and want to come home upon which the "hand wringers" would tell you that a 16 or 17 year old is not mature enough to make decisions.

Anyway, I thought this thread was going to be about who might be the new Honorary Air Commodore at Lossiemouth....

[Wrathmonk]

HAS59 - unless I've misread your post and muddled up the Scottish stations, HRH Duke of York aka Prince Andrew has been Honorary Air Commodore at RAF Lossiemouth since 1996. It's who will replace him that I'm curious about. Meghan perhaps?

[HAS59]

Sorry mate - I got all het up again. I hadn't realised the rogue prince was already the Hon Com of Lossie
Apologies for the confusion.

[Alan Baker]

That's fine, JJ. But at least you are aware of the issues that would need to be covered and opened up to any future discussions. Nobody has any definitive answers to the questions you have posed, but at least you are a little bit more open minded to it than some of the previous posters above. One last point, I'm not sure it would be called the Scottish Royal Air Force. There's no denying the affection a great many Scots have for the Queen, me included, nationalist or unionist. But as for the rest of the shower....

The SNP have been very clear in stating that HM The Queen would remain head of state of an independent Scotland, as part of their falling over backwards to assure Scots that nothing would really change, as in "you'll still get East Enders and Strictly, Ken Bruce on Radio 2" etc. etc. In their manifesto they even stated that they would not be in any hurry to set up a driver and vehicle licensing agency or a civil aviation authority but would continue to use the DVLA in Swansea and the CAA in London.

[Fareastdriver]

they would not be in any hurry to set up a driver and vehicle licensing agency or a civil aviation authority but would continue to use the DVLA in Swansea and the CAA in London.

Plus Embassies and Consulates all over the world and expect Westminster to pay for it.

[MFC_Fly]

The SNP gained the most votes and most Scottish seats in Scotland in the UK General Elections of 2015 & 2017, Scottish Parliament Election 2016 and European Election 2019. And it's not exactly a secret what the SNP wishes to succeed with.

That may well be true of an individual party, but when you look at grouping the results into those parties pro-independence (SNP and Greens) and those pro-union (Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP) the results are very different...

2015 UK General Election (Scottish votes)...
Pro-indy votes 1,493,641 = 51.5%
Pro-union votes 1,407997 = 48.5%

2016 Scottish Parliament Election...
Pro-indy votes 1,073,069 = 47.3%
Pro-union votes 1,194,433 = 52.7%

2017 UK General Election (Scottish votes)...
Pro-indy votes 983,455 = 37.2%
Pro-union votes 1,659,319 = 62.8%

2019 EU Election (Scottish votes)...
Pro-indy votes 714,156 = 46.3%
Pro-union votes 838,913 = 53.7%

What the results show is that support for independence has actually stayed pretty much the same as the IndyRef vote (and in half the elections actually fallen), and the last real election results covering the whole of Scotland (can't include the EU election as we all know how seriously people take that and this year was purely aBrexit vote) showed a major swing away from the pro-independence parties.

[Asturias56]

Yeh but the current PM is pretty toxic in Scotland - he doesn't exactly fit in there................... and the Scots Tories have lost their leader

[alwayslookingup]

Unless of course if they were 16 or 17 and decided, of their own free will, to go and join ISIS.....only to lose the battle and want to come home upon which the "hand wringers" would tell you that a 16 or 17 year old is not mature enough to make decisions.

Anyway, I thought this thread was going to be about who might be the new Honorary Air Commodore at Lossiemouth....
The OP was about Lossie upgrades but by Post 2 it had degenerated into the usual Jockistani bashing. Along the way there has been much prejudice and ill informed comment as well as some fairly well considered comment. I've posed a few questions which nobody's taken on (future QRA/location of nukes). But the fact remains, if/when Scotland becomes independent, a newly independent England will have an awful lot of searching and potentially very expensive defence questions to answer. Why don't we just leave it at that? By the way, oor Nicola aced the debate last night!! And nobody in the audience had the cojones to bring up defence, which I guess shows just how much the average punter worries about it in the general scheme of things.

[alwayslookingup]

The SNP have been very clear in stating that HM The Queen would remain head of state of an independent Scotland, as part of their falling over backwards to assure Scots that nothing would really change, as in "you'll still get East Enders and Strictly, Ken Bruce on Radio 2" etc. etc. In their manifesto they even stated that they would not be in any hurry to set up a driver and vehicle licensing agency or a civil aviation authority but would continue to use the DVLA in Swansea and the CAA in London.
And you wonder why many Scots are rejecting the Union?

[Asturias56]

"a newly independent England will have an awful lot of searching and potentially very expensive defence questions to answer."

Well that assumes we go for the same level of kit etc as we use now. Operate the current Trident fleet out of the East Coast US for a fee for a few years - I could see it being a great excuse to scrap the Successor programme (thus pleasing everyone from the Treasury to a lot of voters) and maybe building a few more Astutes to keep Barrow busy. You could shop for warships anywhere without having to build them expensively in Scotland. The RAF comes south - maybe having to accept "austere" basing for quite a while without all the expensive support bells & whistles but it's only a few squadrons these days. The Army? Not many up there so back to Catterick or disperse more to the Middle East, Cyprus etc

It's a sad fact but "expensive defence questions" are normally only answered one way in the UK these days - cut the capability.

[Union Jack]

The OP was about Lossie upgrades but by Post 2 it had degenerated into the usual Jockistani bashing. Along the way there has been much prejudice and ill informed comment as well as some fairly well considered comment. I've posed a few questions which nobody's taken on (future QRA/location of nukes). But the fact remains, if/when Scotland becomes independent, a newly independent England will have an awful lot of searching and potentially very expensive defence questions to answer. Why don't we just leave it at that? By the way, oor Nicola aced the debate last night!! And nobody in the audience had the cojones intelligence to bring up defence, which I guess shows just how much the average punter worries about it in the general scheme of things.

Not least regarding the really important question, namely who would qualify for honorary membership of The Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews!

Jack

[alwayslookingup]

"a newly independent England will have an awful lot of searching and potentially very expensive defence questions to answer."

Well that assumes we go for the same level of kit etc as we use now. Operate the current Trident fleet out of the East Coast US for a fee for a few years - I could see it being a great excuse to scrap the Successor programme (thus pleasing everyone from the Treasury to a lot of voters) and maybe building a few more Astutes to keep Barrow busy. You could shop for warships anywhere without having to build them expensively in Scotland. The RAF comes south - maybe having to accept "austere" basing for quite a while without all the expensive support bells & whistles but it's only a few squadrons these days. The Army? Not many up there so back to Catterick or disperse more to the Middle East, Cyprus etc

It's a sad fact but "expensive defence questions" are normally only answered one way in the UK these days - cut the capability.
So, you're suggesting the ultimate result of the break up of the Union will be independent England abandoning the independent nuclear deterrent? Excellent news, law of unintended consequences!!

[Richard Dangle]

As jolly as all this politics stuff is :) any chance of an actual update on the matter in hand, from an old ex-kipper mate?

Specifically, when do we expect to sent the first operational sortie out of Lossie?

Since I know people can be a bit slippery with the "truth" in these days of fake news, maybe it would be of help if I set down my own (very personal) definition of what a proper operational sortie is...

A bunch of guys n gals living on or near said RAF base pitch up at oh oh god it's early to get briefed by a bunch of other guys n gals also living on or near said RAF Base.

Said bunch bus out and strap on their shiny new four-jet, which has been prepped by a bunch of other guys n gals... (you get the picture)

Some long, or not so long, hours later, shiny new four-jet arrives home and one bunch is debriefed by another bunch.

The flying bunch head to scruffs bar (or bars, if our bunch is still mixed rank) for a proper debrief.

Some hours later, smelling of curry, beer and whatever the shiny new jet uses for hydraulic power, our heroic bunch arrive home and try and convince their wives, husband, mixed-gender partners, to bump uglies.

With mixed success.

So when is this expected to happen for the first time?

[Asturias56]

It's a possibility IMHO. The cost of recreating the Faslane complex is going to be massive and where would you put it? Somewhere in the SW I'd guess but you'll spend the next 10 years in the courts fighting the greens and the second-home brigade.

You could cut a deal with Scotland to keep the current force operating until it runs out of time - say 2025 - but beyond that the cost implications are huge if you have to rebase as well as build a new fleet if teh nationalists stick to their No Nukes Campaign.

I'd like to see some thoughts on what the Scottish Armed Forces would look like - something akin to Denmark I'd guess??

[ZH875]

If the independent Scotland wishes to keep the Queen as head of state, then could not Faslane and other sensitive bases be allocated as Sovereign Base Areas and kept for defence of HM's land.
it worked for Akrotiri and Dekhalia in Cyprus.

[Asturias56]

Lots of places have the Queen as Head of State without handing over their land as Sovereign Bases. I' sure the Scots have seen what happened to Diego Garcia etc.

If you are anti-nuke you are not going to agree to have the things parked in your country for ever more. The best you'd get is maybe a 5 year extension to run it down in an orderly fashion I'd guess

[HAS59]

A ton of cash and effort has gone into making Lossie a key asset to the RAF, with presumably, the assumption that the Kingdom remains united.
This has quite naturally opened the debate of 'what if' and this is not a dig at Scotland, or the people of Scotland.

I am genuinely puzzled as to what 'Independence' actually means to the SNP, because if it is to mean a defined Scotland totally, completely and exclusively independent of the rest of the UK then how long would that take to establish?
Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).
There isn't a country in the world which is 'Independent' - we all need to trade and co-operate with each other to exist.
I understand the desire to appear a proud Nationalist, but if a break was achieved and everyone lined up along the border and bared their arse at the neighbours, then what?
It would look the same ... to begin with ... but the cost of setting up everything a state needs to function would take decades and cost a fortune.

Would there be an instant turning off the tap of vital services?
Tax, Pensions, Benefits, MI-5/6, Q. Power Generation?

As for QRA - It needn't need to be too far north, a couple of sheds at Newcastle Airport ought to do it. Scottish airspace would be Scotland's responsibility.
The SSBN's are an issue, and as long as France have them, I'm sure the RN will have them too. The relocation cost will have to be spread but it is not insurmountable.
The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south.

I still remain puzzled as to what an Independent Scotland stands to gain from this.
In much the same way as i wonder what a UK outside the EU would gain (but that's another huge can o'worms)
This isn't some 'Vote Idol' reality game where the masses are tricked into thinking that just because they asked/voted for it, that it will automatically happen.

On a positive note, I look forward to the first P-8 arriving at Kinloss and subsequently operating from Lossie - for many years to come.

[Bob Viking]

I see that Nicola Sturgeon wants to stop Brexit and have a referendum on Scottish Independence, amongst other things.

In her own words the ‘once in a generation’ referendum claim was only due to be revoked in light of Brexit being a material change to the state of the UK.

If we don’t Brexit, surely there would be no justification for another Indyref. Or am I missing something?

BV

[Union Jack]

If, and I repeat if, Scotland does eventually achieve independence, presumably the Scottish National Party would have to become simply the National Party and then, in view of their clearly socialist leanings, they could become the National Socialist Party..... Oh, "hang on" (to borrow Fiona Bruce's currently oft repeated expression) - that's been done before, and look what happened!

It's also curious to reflect that the Nationalists used to be known as the "Tartan Tories", which reflects quite a remarkable swing from right to left, which prompts the further thought that any new, improved National Party could well end up with a wide selection of left and right wingers.

On a lighter note, when I was a Sub Lieutenant I was involved in the legal investigation into an board case of sabotage and, when the perpetrator was eventually caught and duly arraigned at the Captain's Table, his defence was that he was only obeying orders. When asked on whose orders, he turned and pointed to me and said that it was on my orders in my capacity as a Vice Admiral in the Scottish Republican Navy! Not bad going for a 20 year old really, and although it only took a day for me to escape the clutches of the Directorate of Naval Security who were called in, but I'm sure it took the sailor concerned a lot longer to escape from the clutches of the psychiatrists.

On a minor informative note, further to HAS59's "Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).", the RNLI has been operating most impressively in the Republic of Ireland for nearly 100 years.

Belated apologies for joining the drift to thread drift.

Jack

[alwayslookingup]

If, and I repeat if, Scotland does eventually achieve independence, presumably the Scottish National Party would have to become simply the National Party and then, in view of their clearly socialist leanings, they could become the National Socialist Party..... Oh, "hang on" (to borrow Fiona Bruce's currently oft repeated expression) - that's been done before, and look what happened!

It's also curious to reflect that the Nationalists used to be known as the "Tartan Tories", which reflects quite a remarkable swing from right to left, which prompts the further thought that any new, improved National Party could well end up with a wide selection of left and right wingers.

On a lighter note, when I was a Sub Lieutenant I was involved in the legal investigation into an board case of sabotage and, when the perpetrator was eventually caught and duly arraigned at the Captain's Table, his defence was that he was only obeying orders. When asked on whose orders, he turned and pointed to me and said that it was on my orders in my capacity as a Vice Admiral in the Scottish Republican Navy! Not bad going for a 20 year old really, and although it only took a day for me to escape the clutches of the Directorate of Naval Security who were called in, but I'm sure it took the sailor concerned a lot longer to escape from the clutches of the psychiatrists.

On a minor informative note, further to HAS59's "Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).", the RNLI has been operating most impressively in the Republic of Ireland for nearly 100 years.

Belated apologies for joining the drift to thread drift.

Jack
What many people fail to realise is that, upon Scotland becoming independent, there would be AN ELECTION to see who would govern the newly independent country. In that election it would be incumbent on ALL parties who wished to govern the country to put their case to the electorate. It's not inconceivable that the SNP, having achieved their aim, would wither away a la UKIP following the Brexit referendum. It's likely a new Scottish independent parliament would be modelled on a proportionate system, as it is now, with opportunities for parties of all persuasions to put their case. Bear in mind, at the moment the SNP are technically a minority government, but govern with the help of six Green Party MSPs. That's democracy.

[Asturias56]

"The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south."

The question is where exactly? You have to have relatively easy access to deep water close to the base if possible so that really puts you in SW England or SW Wales. IIRC there was some talk of relocating them to Falmouth and sticking them under the headland at Flushing but ...................

[theredbarron]

They would lose the annual £2000 per head subsidy currently shipped north.
When there is /if there is a second indyref, I demand a vote.

The £2,000 per head subsidy does not exist outside of a corrupt bookkeeping exercise. The details are too long to go into here, but consider just a few simple facts: Scotland has the highest per capita GDP of any part of the UK outside of London and SE England, has lower unemployment than anywhere outside of London, and exports more per head than any other part of the UK, is allocated 8.5% of UK oil and gas revenues when 90%+ accrue from oil and gas produced in Scottish waters. Who needs subsidised? Certainly not Scotland.

[alwayslookingup]

A ton of cash and effort has gone into making Lossie a key asset to the RAF, with presumably, the assumption that the Kingdom remains united.
This has quite naturally opened the debate of 'what if' and this is not a dig at Scotland, or the people of Scotland.

I am genuinely puzzled as to what 'Independence' actually means to the SNP, because if it is to mean a defined Scotland totally, completely and exclusively independent of the rest of the UK then how long would that take to establish?
Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).
There isn't a country in the world which is 'Independent' - we all need to trade and co-operate with each other to exist.
I understand the desire to appear a proud Nationalist, but if a break was achieved and everyone lined up along the border and bared their arse at the neighbours, then what?
It would look the same ... to begin with ... but the cost of setting up everything a state needs to function would take decades and cost a fortune.

Would there be an instant turning off the tap of vital services?
Tax, Pensions, Benefits, MI-5/6, Q. Power Generation?

As for QRA - It needn't need to be too far north, a couple of sheds at Newcastle Airport ought to do it. Scottish airspace would be Scotland's responsibility.
The SSBN's are an issue, and as long as France have them, I'm sure the RN will have them too. The relocation cost will have to be spread but it is not insurmountable.
The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south.

I still remain puzzled as to what an Independent Scotland stands to gain from this.
In much the same way as i wonder what a UK outside the EU would gain (but that's another huge can o'worms)
This isn't some 'Vote Idol' reality game where the masses are tricked into thinking that just because they asked/voted for it, that it will automatically happen.

On a positive note, I look forward to the first P-8 arriving at Kinloss and subsequently operating from Lossie - for many years to come.

That's a little bit of a chestnut there, as we are not establishing a NEW country. Scotland already runs its own local government, housing, police, fire, ambulance, HEALTH SERVICE (not the NHS you quote), education, courts and legal services, tourism, universities, to name but a few. In reality, and I could be proved wrong here, but there currently is only one exclusively UK service an independent Scotland would need to set up, and that is the Coastguard Service. Given the length of coastline and phenomenal sea area an independent Scotland would possess, this is a fairly important service. It's estimated it could be established de novo for around £20 million. And, we're quite capable of generating ALL the power we need, much of through renewables (wind, wave, solar, hydro and nuclear). Plus, Scottish water is actually a net exporter of water south of the border. In fact, there is the supreme irony of a government controlled body, Scottish Water, selling water to privatised companies south of the border to sell on to English consumers.

[alwayslookingup]

The £2,000 per head subsidy does not exist outside of a corrupt bookkeeping exercise. The details are too long to go into here, but consider just a few simple facts: Scotland has the highest per capita GDP of any part of the UK outside of London and SE England, has lower unemployment than anywhere outside of London, and exports more per head than any other part of the UK, is allocated 8.5% of UK oil and gas revenues when 90%+ accrue from oil and gas produced in Scottish waters. Who needs subsidised? Certainly not Scotland.
Welcome to the party!!

[alwayslookingup]

I see that Nicola Sturgeon wants to stop Brexit and have a referendum on Scottish Independence, amongst other things.

In her own words the ‘once in a generation’ referendum claim was only due to be revoked in light of Brexit being a material change to the state of the UK.

If we don’t Brexit, surely there would be no justification for another Indyref. Or am I missing something?

BV
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130102230945/http://www.number10.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Agreement-final-for-signing.pdf

The 2014 Referendum was superintended by the 2012 Edinburgh Agreement between David Cameron and Alex Salmond. This is the legality and what gave the referendum life. If you can find anything in it that says this was a "once in a generation referendum" I'll happily donate a tenner to a charity of your choice. The "once in a generation" is a bit like "will of the people", a nebulous phrase that has somehow achieved quasi legal status. In fact, in one interview (with Andrew Marr below), Alex Salmond said the referendum is the kind of opportunity that comes around "probably once in a generation" but that this was "only his personal opinion". In the interview, he qualified his opinion twice with the caveat that it was only his personal opinion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdlGplW4SQc

[Timelord]

Surely, whether or not anyone actually committed to “ once in a generation”, referendums on major constitutional change can’t keep coming round every couple of years. How can you run a country under those conditions? And, by the way, they should need a 2/3 majority for something as fundamental as a Scottish independence or leaving the EU. The average golf club requires a 2/3 majority to change its membership rules!

[HAS59]

there currently is only one exclusively UK service an independent Scotland would need to set up, and that is the Coastguard Service..

Okay this has drifted a wee bit but ...

That was a rather selective answer to a puzzling question ... and you'll need more than a few coastwatchers.
A quick peek at what the UK Govt currently have to operate comes up with a few more (uncosted) agencies you may well need to maintain the standard we all currently have.

Cabinet Office 22 agencies and public bodies
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy 41 agencies and public bodies
Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport 45 agencies and public bodies
Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs 33 agencies and public bodies
Department for Transport 24 agencies and public bodies
Department for Work & Pensions 15 agencies and public bodies
Foreign & Commonwealth Office 10 agencies and public bodies
Home Office 29 agencies and public bodies
Ministry of Defence 27 agencies and public bodies

There actually hundreds more organisations which are currently national (which includes all of the UK) which an Indi Scotland may well need.
Which would take years and would cost more than the 'voters' would be happy with.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what it is you feel the need to be independent from and what it is you think you will be gaining.
Independence from oppression I can understand - is it independence out of a fit of pique?

I have lived on the border and on both sides of it - half my family are Scots the other are not.
I see no point whatsoever in turning back the clock and tearing down the union for the dubious joy of saying 'Get it right up yi' and watching another re-run of Braveheart'.

I know what you have to lose on day one after 'freedom' - I do not know what you think you will gain.

[Asturias56]

"agencies you may well need to maintain the standard we all currently have."

Not sure you'd have half of those if you started with a clean sheet of paper.

So what would the Royal Scots Airforce look like:-

1 Business Jet (European range only ) for Ministers

1 squadron of F-16's (very cheap) or Gripen (effective and Nordic) for notional QRA

6 medium sized Fishery protection aircraft

24-40 helicopters (medium) - something that the guys at ABZ can maintain easily - for the Scots Army

6 air-sea rescue helicopters - maybe go for something big here

[NutLoose]

Shame we don't build our airfields like the Russians, when on leaving East Germany they lifted a lot of the taxiways etc and took them with them.
Could the nuclear sub fleet not move to somewhere like Barrow, after all they are built there. and there is a handy airfield nearby.

As for the oil revenues that our Scottish friends on here keep mentioning, do not forget it is a dwindling asset that is on the decline, once that's gone you may find that difficult to replace that in the countries coffers, there is also the decommissioning costs to think about and I seem to remember that Shetland at the last referendum wished to remain as part of the U.K.? Which would if it came to pass severely reduce the oil fields at Scotland's disposal.

i am all for letting Scotland go its own way if it wants, BUT I doubt it will ever become part of the EU again, Spain is the major blocking point, if they agree to a split and Scotland rejoining, it will bring about futher calls at home on it over Catalan.

The other problem is Sturgeon, she has already said she is not against holding another referendum in a few years if after leaving the people of Scotland decide it's not working and wish to rejoin the Union, no EU will ever want to go through that again, and one hopes the remains of the U.K. Would vote / prevent it happening.

[Radley]

Richard Dangle-You'll be waiting a long time for an answer I'm afraid. For those living north of the border this is all we've had for the last umpteen years.

[Union Jack]

The wee "nippy sweetie" flexes her muscles yet again, saying that "Scrapping Trident would be one of the SNP's key demands to gain its support in the event of a minority Labour government", vide https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50536460

Not asking much really, especially relative to a minority government.....

Jack

[Asturias56]

"Could the nuclear sub fleet not move to somewhere like Barrow, after all they are built there"

They could Nut but I think there are issues about water depth - plus it is a fair ways to deep water which the submariners like - an extended cruise on the /near the surface is to be avoided I believe.

[Timelord]

It’s not so much where to berth the subs that’s the problem but where to store / handle the warheads. The Coulport facility, when it was being built, was described as the biggest civil engineering project in Europe.

[Richard Dangle]

In order for the any discussion about where to put boomers n bangers to enter the world of reality the following has to happen:

1. Labour and SNP have to win a combined parliamentary majority. According to John Curtice (this weekend multiple sources) the chances of that happening are close to zero.
2. Or, Sturgeon would have to persuade Johnson to give her IndyRef2 (I hope nobody hereabouts is holding their breath on that one).
3. And, in the very unlikely event that IndyRef2 somehow comes about, the SNP have to win it. The latest poll (WhatScotlandWants, 22 Nov) has the Yes at 45% and the No at 47%. Ain't no way a politician as savvy as NS is staking her political career on those odds.

And even if all these unlikely events line up, there will be years of negotiation ahead, and NS is hardly going to show her aces on day 1 is she?

Anybody want to talk about P8's now?

[Union Jack]

It’s not so much where to berth the subs submarines that’s the problem but where to store / handle the warheads. The Coulport facility, when it was being built, was described as the biggest civil engineering project in Europe.

I appreciate that it's not recent, but the attached link provides useful background, largely still relevant today, regarding possible alternatives to Faslane/Coulport, and even including a French connection: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28009977

Meanwhile, back at Lossiemouth.....

Jack

[Alan Baker]

A ton of cash and effort has gone into making Lossie a key asset to the RAF, with presumably, the assumption that the Kingdom remains united.
This has quite naturally opened the debate of 'what if' and this is not a dig at Scotland, or the people of Scotland.

I am genuinely puzzled as to what 'Independence' actually means to the SNP, because if it is to mean a defined Scotland totally, completely and exclusively independent of the rest of the UK then how long would that take to establish?
Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).
The RNLI is an independent charity, not a government department, and operates lifeboats throughout the British Isles including the Republic of Ireland.

[Asturias56]

very interesting article Union Jack - suspect there's some poor sods who have been working away on this for years just in case.........

[Asturias56]

"The RNLI is an independent charity, not a government department"

Quite amazing when you think of it - a charity providing front-line (and superb) cover. Must save the Govt millions.................

Maybe they should run the RAF that way?

[Union Jack]

The RNLI is an independent charity, not a government department, and operates lifeboats throughout the British Isles including the Republic of Ireland.

VMT for the elaboration on the penultimate paragraph of #89!:)

Jack

[HAS59]

Thank you for the clarification re the status of the RNLI, I am aware of it's 'charitable' status ... and its many faults.
I had not intended to imply that it was a Government asset.
I had hoped to draw attention to the word 'National' in the organisations which currently serve all of the UK.
And 'national', when/if Scotland declared UDI and would still need to have the services of those 'National' organisations.
Cheers

[HAS59]

It’s not so much where to berth the subs that’s the problem but where to store / handle the warheads. The Coulport facility, when it was being built, was described as the biggest civil engineering project in Europe.

Once a suitable berth has been located, and agreed upon (which in reality means the Southwest Peninsular of England).

The size of a storage /handling facility could be addressed. This need not be of the size and cost of the Coulport Facility.
Fewer smaller warheads are now in use and storage may be shared with the production facility.
We may not require all of the 65 missiles we used to lease from US stocks for the next boat.
Missile storage needs to be secure but does that require the deep-hardening first-strike survival measures of the Cold War?

The new facilities could be safe clean and efficient with perhaps a third aspect – decommissioning of the subs we have in ‘storage’.

Naturally the Government will draft a flawed contract which will overrun both time and cost, leading to cuts and compromises. One can hope for a better outcome.

As for the cost of re-building Lossie, it may all be in vain after all if the fleet of P-8’s move to St Mawgan to be nearer the subs.

[shotleylad]

It will be common sense for the bases to remain in Scotland they employ large numbers of people and are in the right position. Moving
aircraft to England would be stupid.

[Asturias56]

It will be common sense for the bases to remain in Scotland they employ large numbers of people and are in the right position. Moving
aircraft to England would be stupid.


Regretfully common sense was left behind 40 years ago on this topic.:(

[Asturias56]

"Fewer smaller warheads are now in use and storage may be shared with the production facility."

That's Burghfield just outside Reading - you're going to have to widen the Kennet & Avon Canal a bit...
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/591x443/id189_pic01_582fa7897a3419b5f4882a92b0bd9923f6322d9a.jpg

[bobward]

Shotley Lad,
Being sensible is not, and never has been, government policy......

[Asturias56]

Well TBH the whole issue is due to the Scots trying to emulate the Quebecois back in the early 1970's.

[alwayslookingup]

Okay this has drifted a wee bit but ...

That was a rather selective answer to a puzzling question ... and you'll need more than a few coastwatchers.
A quick peek at what the UK Govt currently have to operate comes up with a few more (uncosted) agencies you may well need to maintain the standard we all currently have.

Cabinet Office 22 agencies and public bodies
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy 41 agencies and public bodies
Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport 45 agencies and public bodies
Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs 33 agencies and public bodies
Department for Transport 24 agencies and public bodies
Department for Work & Pensions 15 agencies and public bodies
Foreign & Commonwealth Office 10 agencies and public bodies
Home Office 29 agencies and public bodies
Ministry of Defence 27 agencies and public bodies

There actually hundreds more organisations which are currently national (which includes all of the UK) which an Indi Scotland may well need.
Which would take years and would cost more than the 'voters' would be happy with.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what it is you feel the need to be independent from and what it is you think you will be gaining.
Independence from oppression I can understand - is it independence out of a fit of pique?

I have lived on the border and on both sides of it - half my family are Scots the other are not.
I see no point whatsoever in turning back the clock and tearing down the union for the dubious joy of saying 'Get it right up yi' and watching another re-run of Braveheart'.

I know what you have to lose on day one after 'freedom' - I do not know what you think you will gain.
I think you'll find, with one obvious exception, that the Scottish Government and Executive in Edinburgh operates most of these functions in one form or another already. Bear in mind, as a country one tenth the size of England our requirements would be proportionately less. The one obvious exception is the MoD. And that, I guess, is the subject of the posts on here now. For the sake of completeness, taxation and social security are also reserved matters so Work and Pensions would need to be addressed.

Anyway, some homework for you. Write down the values of the Norwegian Sovereign Oil Fund and the UK's Sovereign Oil Fund. Show your working, but don't spend too much time on the UK's, as (big clue), it's zero, despite call me Dave Cameron's promise that one would be set up if Scotland voted to remain part of the UK in 2014. Successive UK governments, starting with Thatcher's in 1979, have pissed trillions of pounds revenue from the north sea up the wall, and that's a crime.

[alwayslookingup]

It’s not so much where to berth the subs that’s the problem but where to store / handle the warheads. The Coulport facility, when it was being built, was described as the biggest civil engineering project in Europe.
I think it was the Ship Lift facility at Faslane that was described as the biggest at the time. Built, of course, by Maggie Thatcher's favourite civil engineering contractor, Trafalgar House.

[alwayslookingup]

Shame we don't build our airfields like the Russians, when on leaving East Germany they lifted a lot of the taxiways etc and took them with them.
Could the nuclear sub fleet not move to somewhere like Barrow, after all they are built there. and there is a handy airfield nearby.

As for the oil revenues that our Scottish friends on here keep mentioning, do not forget it is a dwindling asset that is on the decline, once that's gone you may find that difficult to replace that in the countries coffers, there is also the decommissioning costs to think about and I seem to remember that Shetland at the last referendum wished to remain as part of the U.K.? Which would if it came to pass severely reduce the oil fields at Scotland's disposal.

i am all for letting Scotland go its own way if it wants, BUT I doubt it will ever become part of the EU again, Spain is the major blocking point, if they agree to a split and Scotland rejoining, it will bring about futher calls at home on it over Catalan.

The other problem is Sturgeon, she has already said she is not against holding another referendum in a few years if after leaving the people of Scotland decide it's not working and wish to rejoin the Union, no EU will ever want to go through that again, and one hopes the remains of the U.K. Would vote / prevent it happening.





A question that's always puzzled me. There's no doubt the oil and gas is a dwindling asset (though it'll outlive everyone on here right now). As such, if Scotland does not become independent, what provision is the UK government currently making for the loss of it and the decommissioning costs?

"Spain is the major blocking point" - fake news and part of 2014's project fear. It's not an issue. Google it.

As for your last sentence, could you quote a reference please. I have NEVER heard rejoining the UK as an option if we become independent.

[alwayslookingup]

It will be common sense for the bases to remain in Scotland they employ large numbers of people and are in the right position. Moving
aircraft to England would be stupid.
Excellent contribution. The problem with sense these days is that it's not that common.

[alwayslookingup]

I have to say, folks, that in all the years I've been reading Pp where Scottish Independence has been discussed, this seems to me to be the most reasonable and mature discussion I've seen. Is that because, as time passes, people are starting to contemplate the possibility Independence may actually occur?!!

[HAS59]

I have to say, folks, that in all the years I've been reading Pp where Scottish Independence has been discussed, this seems to me to be the most reasonable and mature discussion I've seen. Is that because, as time passes, people are starting to contemplate the possibility Independence may actually occur?!!

That may be because the topic is close to the Maritime heart and has drawn comment from those of us who have lived for decades in Moray.
We have seen the Independence Issue grow from within Scotland, rather than being mere bystanders looking at it from without.
We have seen communities divided on the issue mindful that a proud and keenly felt sense of Nationalism is a fundamental part of life in Scotland.
I am a guilty as most for allowing 'thread-creep' on here for which I apologise. I hope the dialog has been worth it.
I respectfully ask, once again ...
''What is it the Independence movement hope to gain, that they do not already have?''
''Has whatever it is, been balanced against what may or may not be lost?''
''What is it that would need to change to make Independent minded Scots happy to stay in the union?''

[Asturias56]

"what provision is the UK government currently making for the loss of it and the decommissioning costs"

Since the UK has never had a genuine Energy Policy it's what you'd expect - keep whistling a jolly tune and kick the can down the road. On Abandonment the liability sits with the current owners of the facility who are supposed to keep an up to date estimate of what it will cost (due to major advances in technology and actual experience these costs have actually been falling over the last 20 years). In addition when someone like Shell sells to a venture capital based start-up in Aberdeen they either give them some cash or retain a proportion of the liability

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/oil-and-gas-decommissioning-of-offshore-installations-and-pipelines

https://oilandgasuk.co.uk/product/decommissioning-insight-report/


the later is good introduction to current issues

[Asturias56]

''What is it the Independence movement hope to gain, that they do not already have?''

A very good question but they will just repeat "INDEPENDENCE" - they want to be free of what they see as English oversight and control. You can argue forever but it's the same cry we heard from the USA, Australia, Ghana, India, Catalonia, Latin America - people don't t like the idea of foreign control - see BREXIT

[Silver Pegasus]

Surely a waste of money anyway. When Scotland goes Independent we wouldn't want our frontline assets in a foreign country? The aircraft would be relocated in England. As presumably the naval bases.

Scotland would be due assets through negotiations, seeing that they have paid for it through taxation etc. From memory Scotland contributes £3.3bn to the U.K. defence budget. Also the ‘U.K.’ has assets in other countries.. I don’t see that changing much.

[Asturias56]

It'll probably be a total package of "value" - the Scots may not want half a squadron of F-35's or Typhoons due to running costs going forward - but take it as helicopters or marine patrol vessels instead - or a contribution to their national pension scheme for example

[NutLoose]

Interestingly could the US not veto any sale of ex US military aircraft, i.e the F-35 to the likes of Scotland if it was an independent country? The same goes for other fleets, Chinook, Herk etc.

[MFC_Fly]

the Scots may not want half a squadron of F-35's or Typhoons due to running costs going forward
You obviously haven't read the SNP's last White Paper on the subject - "Scotland's Future"... "a Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) squadron incorporating a minimum of 12 Typhoon jets based at Lossiemouth" ;)

[Alan Baker]

As I mentioned in a previous post, according to the SNP's referendum manifesto they have no intention of immediately setting up a driver and vehicle licensing agency or a civil aviation authority. The DVLA bit is probably to reassure Scots that if they moved to a job in England, they wouldn't have to re-register their car after six months (EU rules). Without a CAA they would not be able to be members of the ICAO, a United Nations agency (one wonders if the UN would consider them to be independent enough to be UN members).
As regards the Typhoons and Lossiemouth, I wonder if the SNP realise how few people would be left at the base when all the English RAF personnel who are only there because they were posted there return south of the border.

[Asturias56]

Maybe they think the English will continue to pay for their QRA squadron?

[Asturias56]

Interestingly could the US not veto any sale of ex US military aircraft, i.e the F-35 to the likes of Scotland if it was an independent country? The same goes for other fleets, Chinook, Herk etc.


yes but they're likely to see them as a customer for things like the F-16............. got to keep those production lines running

And Mr President owns half of Scotland - he'll be on their side

[MFC_Fly]

Maybe they think the English will continue to pay for their QRA squadron?

No, that was just one line from the SNP list of the composition of an independent Scottish Air Force "equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets". They also list their bucket list for naval and land forces.

[Green Flash]

Scotland does have a military presence plus I think the Gunner at Edinburgh Castle is employed by HQ Army Scotland, not the MOD? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atholl_Highlanders

[Asturias56]

Thanks for that heads up MFC - here are teh words of wisdom from 2013:-

two frigates from the Royal Navy’s current fleet ■ a command platform for naval operations and development of specialist marine capabilities (from the Royal Navy’s current fleet, following adaptation)
■ four mine counter measure vessels from the Royal Navy’s current fleet ■ two offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) to provide security for the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

However, as the Royal Navy only has four OPVs currently262, a longer lead time for procurement might be necessary ■ four to six patrol boats from the Royal Navy’s current fleet, capable of operating in coastal waters, providing fleet protection and also contributing to securing borders ■ auxiliary support ships (providing support to vessels on operations), which could be secured on a shared basis initially with the rest of the UK These arrangements will require around 2,000 regular and at least 200 reserve personnel.

An army HQ function and an all-arms brigade, with three infantry/marine units, equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets, and supported by:
a deployable Brigade HQ
■ two light armoured reconnaissance units ■ two light artillery units ■ one engineer unit deploying a range of equipment for bridging, mine clearance and engineering functions
■ one aviation unit operating six helicopters for reconnaissance and liaison ■ two communication units ■ one transport unit ■ one logistics unit ■ one medical unit

Special forces, explosives and ordnance disposal teams will bring the total to around 3,500 regular and at least 1,200 reserve personnel. Air forces Key elements of air forces in place at independence, equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets, will secure core tasks, principally the ability to police

Scotland’s airspace, within NATO. ■ an Air Force HQ function (with staff embedded within NATO structures) ■ Scotland will remain part of NATO’s integrated Air Command and Control (AC2) system, initially through agreement with allies to maintain the current arrangements while Scotland establishes and develops our own AC2 personnel and facility within Scotland within five years of independence
■ a Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) squadron incorporating a minimum of 12 Typhoon jets based at Lossiemouth 240 ■ a tactical air transport squadron, including around six Hercules C130J aircraft, and a helicopter squadron ■ flight training through joint arrangements with allies In total this would require around 2,000 regular personnel and around 300 reserve personnel.

[Headstone]

Keeping the thread drift going - this is a serious question and I'm not denigrating any Scottish people/forces. What, apart from a "Vanity" project, is the point of a Scottish defence force being a major player? Who is going to attack them? Who, unless Ms Sturgeon wants to do a Blair and go on ill conceived foreign adventures, will they go to fight and where? Excepting the NATO Airspace responsibility, what are they going to do? What would be their role in NATO, if it exists in the future, and will they joining Macron's EU army? The Republic of Ireland manage OK with their forces and their Army even do UN work. Scotland would obviously need air and sea assets for Fishery and Oil rig support and possibly MCM vessels which could also do border and drug patrols. SAR and support rotary plus presidential and VIP flight. What is the army going to do and where are they going to need to go? Aid to civil power and UN work or a lot more? Surely the money spent on a very expensive but small QRA etc. would be better spent on the Scottish heath service, roads or schools. As I said at the start this is a serious question - why does Scotland need to be a major player apart from - We have a tradition of always having had strong, very efficient soldiers of which we are justifiably proud.
More continuation of thread drift - I see a major problem with an Independent Scotland joining the EU in the event of the UK leaving the EU. Scotland's biggest trading partner would be a country outside the EU. According to remain it will take years for a UK/EU trading deal so how would Scotland export to England? Remember all the problems being brought up regarding trade between UK/EU/NI and a possible "hard border"? All the talk about where this "hard border" would be - is it between NI/ROI or down the Irish sea. So would there be a "Hard Border" stretching from Gretna to Berwick? We are told there will be queues from London to Dover when the UK leaves so can you imaging queues of lorries full of exports on the A1 from Edinburgh to Berwick or queues from Glasgow to Gretna on the M74 while EU officials check paperwork? LNER trains and the West Coast line stopping for passport and good checks? The English/Scottish border is a lot more porous than the NI/ROI border so how could customs check anything?

[Asturias56]

Headstone - the 2013 Manifesto https://www2.gov.scot/resource/0043/00439021.pdf

has their strategy set out in excruciating detail

[Geordie_Expat]

Why not put this on the Scottish Indy hamsterwheel on Jetblast? It is all fantasy island stuff anyway.

[Union Jack]

Why not put this on the Scottish Indy hamsterwheel on Jetblast? It is all fantasy island stuff anyway.

Thoroughly agree. I'm always intrigued as to why the wee "nippy sweetie" who, whilst admittedly the leader of the SNP overall, is allowed such free rein in a UK wide election despite holding no official role whatsoever at Westminster, unlike that funny little chap who does. It probably doesn't matter too much anyway, since it could all end in tears when Nicola's own "trustworthiness" comes under the microscope relative to a certain court case....

In the same vein, it seems somewhat surprising that very little appears to have been said, or political capital made (sub judice permitting), about why the SNP suddenly decided that a December election was preferable to one in, say, March?

Jack

[a_ross84]

Lots of stroppy jocks In here

[Richard Dangle]

Since I can't get an answer, in thread dedicated to the subject...I guess nobody will mind if I speculate?

Based on not a single fact, I think...

The capability won't be truly operational in 2020
There are problems manning it (not just the aircraft, the whole thing)
Half a dozen of those seedcorn folks (some of whom are well old btw) will do a roller or two out of Lossie, and some big wig will sign off on it.

You heard it hear first folks

[esscee]

Lots of stroppy jocks in many places, not just here.

[Union Jack]

Lots of stroppy jocks in many places, not just here.

Some of whom probably end up with soppy jock straps, especially as they get older.....

Jack

[NutLoose]

The SNP have been very clear in stating that HM The Queen would remain head of state of an independent Scotland, as part of their falling over backwards to assure Scots that nothing would really change, as in "you'll still get East Enders and Strictly, Ken Bruce on Radio 2" etc. etc. In their manifesto they even stated that they would not be in any hurry to set up a driver and vehicle licensing agency or a civil aviation authority but would continue to use the DVLA in Swansea and the CAA in London.

That smacks more of economical reasoning than anything else, one assumes they will pay for the services, it also is a heck of an assumption by the SNP that the rest of the U.K. would agree to it and that a hard border would not be erected by us, especially as they wish to rejoin the EU., though services wise it's probably going to be a two way track at first.
As for the bases listed above Lossiemouth, Kinloss, Leuchars, Macrahanish etc, plus all the Army and Naval bases, that's a lot for their burgeoning independent country to take on financially.

[OilCan]

NutLoose There ye go again showing yer age.

RAF Lossiemouth is the only flying station left in Scotland.
Kinloss & Leuchars have been Army for nearly 10 years and Macrahanish has been deactiveated for nearly 25!!!

Rosyth is already earmarked for closure in 2022 leaving Faslane/Coulport as the only RN base.

No wonder the Union is in the state it is when PLANKS like you still have a vote...:rolleyes:

Why do you need a hard border with Scotland, why cann't we have one of those invisible electronic none existent borders that the Bungling Bufoon has planned for NI?

[NutLoose]

I know Kinloss and Leuchars are army, they took the troops coming back from Germany, I also know machrahanish closed, hands up to that, I was simply referring to the bases mentioned on here without thinking, the Royal Navy has more bases than you infer btw.f

Don't get me wrong I would love to see Scotland get full autonomy, if that is what they want, I however feel sorry for those that do not want it or are scared to voice that, because I think it will fail, I think putting their hopes on an economy that is propped up on dwindling oil reserves is doomed from the offset. And as for Corbyns idea of pumping extra billions into Scotland to improve everything and then allowing them a vote to leave... Simply barking.

I also know Northern Ireland is part of the U.K. and will remain so for the foreseeable future therefore there is no hard border required between them, however If Scotland becomes independent then it is no longer part of the UK so in theory should have a hard border. Obviously something you cannot understand.


..

[Asturias56]

"Northern Ireland is part of the U.K. and will remain so for the foreseeable future "

Until the demographics tip over - there is a steady increase in the population likely to vote for joining the Republic and the Unionist numbers are steadily falling.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/new-light-shed-on-prospect-of-catholic-majority-in-north-1.3891032

On the other hand I can remember having a beer with a well known Dublin politician 10 years back and he said "Of course everyone itneh Republic is in favour of unification - just as long as it doesn't happen in their lifetime. No-one has a clue how it would work out."

[MarkD]

Surely in the event of Indy the same arrangement would be made as was done in 1921 in Ireland - rUK to operate Faslane and other facilities as Sovereign Base Areas while Scotland stands up its own capabilities. It took almost two decades for the Treaty Ports to disappear in Ireland.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_Ports_(Ireland)

[Asturias56]

Surely? Surely?? It'll be a negotiation - and if it's between Ms Sturgeon & Boris it will be very short - as an Independent country they can decide exactly what is there and what is not there - looking at their Manifesto it looks pretty clear.....................

"Scrap Trident SNP MPs will build a cross-party coalition to scrap Trident as quickly and as safely as possible. We believe the billions spent on Trident should be invested in our public services

Scrapping Trident The SNP has never and will never support the retention or renewal of Trident. We believe that nuclear weapons are immoral, ineffective and expensive. We want to see a world free from nuclear weapons, and with independence, Scotland can be an advocate for disarmament on the global stage. In times of imposed austerity, the estimated £205 billion to be spent on a Trident replacement over the next 30 years could be far more effectively used to support our public services and build a better future for our children. At Westminster SNP MPs will build a cross-party coalition to scrap Trident as quickly and as safely as possible. We will press the UK government to meet their international obligations on nuclear disarmament."

[NutLoose]

Scrap Trident SNP MPs will build a cross-party coalition to scrap Trident as quickly and as safely as possible. We believe the billions spent on Trident should be invested in our public services.

Scrapping Trident The SNP has never and will never support the retention or renewal of Trident. We believe that nuclear weapons are immoral, ineffective and expensive. We want to see a world free from nuclear weapons, and with independence, Scotland can be an advocate for disarmament on the global stage. In times of imposed austerity, the estimated £205 billion to be spent on a Trident replacement over the next 30 years could be far more effectively used to support our public services and build a better future for our children. At Westminster SNP MPs will build a cross-party coalition to scrap Trident as quickly and as safely as possible. We will press the UK government to meet their international obligations on nuclear

But if Scotland gets independence then they will not have a say in scrapping it, nor indeed how the budget is spent, indeed there would be no Scots MP's at all in Westminster.

[OilCan]

I know Kinloss and Leuchars are army, they took the troops coming back from Germany, I also know machrahanish closed, hands up to that, I was simply referring to the bases mentioned on here without thinking, the Royal Navy has more bases than you infer btw.f
Kinloss took 39 Engineer Regt from Waterbeach in Cambridgeshire. Waterbeach camp was then sold off for housing.
You'll need to enlighten me on the Navy bases (Marines don't count).? - and Lossiemouth hasn't been Navy since 1972...:8

I think putting their hopes on an economy that is propped up on dwindling oil reserves is doomed from the offset. And as for Corbyns idea of pumping extra billions into Scotland to improve everything and then allowing them a vote to leave... Simply barking.
If that were the case, I would agree with you - but it isn't. By your own admission, your lack of thinking is leading you to false assumptions, you really need to do more homework on other aspects of the Scottish economy.

I also know Northern Ireland is part of the U.K. and will remain so for the foreseeable future therefore there is no hard border required between them, however If Scotland becomes independent then it is no longer part of the UK so in theory should have a hard border. Obviously something you cannot understand.
?????:ugh: I take it you've been following the debate on the Border issues in NI???:ugh:

[OilCan]

But if Scotland gets independence then they will not have a say in scrapping it, nor indeed how the budget is spent, indeed there would be no Scots MP's at all in Westminster.

...so you'd better decide pretty quickly where you want to put them when the Subs are sent south and the warheads are trundling down the M74. (that's a main road that crosses the border)
Quality thinking again...nice one.:rolleyes:

[Asturias56]

"you'd better decide pretty quickly where you want to put them when the Subs are sent south and the warheads are trundling down the M74"

Steer clear of Acklington & Burghfield................... that's where they are normally parked up in England

[Davef68]

Kinloss and Leuchars still retain some aviation facilities, indeed Leuchars still has an active RAF flying unit, and both are scheduled to receive Lossie aircraft whilst the runway at Lossie is resurfaced.

And it's only 4 years since Leuchars ceased to be RAF controlled

[Asturias56]

2Steer clear of Acklington & Burghfield."

Durrbrain - of course not Acklington - which is a prison these days - Ouston - west of Newcastle

[Alan Baker]

Kinloss and Leuchars still retain some aviation facilities, indeed Leuchars still has an active RAF flying unit, and both are scheduled to receive Lossie aircraft whilst the runway at Lossie is resurfaced.

And it's only 4 years since Leuchars ceased to be RAF controlled
Presumably, the golfers with private jets will be hoping Leuchars is still available for the 2021 Open Championship at St. Andrews!

[lonsdale2]

https://twitter.com/RAFLossiemouth/status/1201463550792863744

On track apparently

[MFC_Fly]

Kinloss and Leuchars still retain some aviation facilities, indeed Leuchars still has an active RAF flying unit

As does Kinloss - in fact they are currently on bolthole to Lossie whilst the Kinloss runway is being resurfaced :eek:

[Richard Dangle]

On track apparently

A post on the subject...it's a Christmas miracle :D

[OilCan]

As does Kinloss - in fact they are currently on bolthole to Lossie whilst the Kinloss runway is being resurfaced :eek:
Yep, I still go there quite often. There remains an eerie sense of suspended animation about the place even down to the smell of AVTUR and the whine of the Speys...

Of course it could just be my hallucinations..;)

[Richard Dangle]

Wow! 10 years stateside for those seedcorn peeps (mighty fine fellows, I taught some of them). That's a helluva gig, well played sirs :D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Quick 12 months at Ice Station Lima, an appearance on "Home in the Sun", cue sun-downers sans brexit Britain (or the People's Republic of Caledonia, if that is what it is to be).

Love it :ok:

[Davef68]

As does Kinloss - in fact they are currently on bolthole to Lossie whilst the Kinloss runway is being resurfaced :eek:

An RAF flying unit? I wasn't aware of that - which one?

[MFC_Fly]

An RAF flying unit? I wasn't aware of that - which one?

A RAFFCA one :ok:

[shotleylad]

No reason why the bases could not remain om Scotland.

[MarkD]

Surely? Surely?? It'll be a negotiation - and if it's between Ms Sturgeon & Boris it will be very short - as an Independent country they can decide exactly what is there and what is not there - looking at their Manifesto it looks pretty clear.....................

"Scrap Trident SNP MPs will build a cross-party coalition to scrap Trident as quickly and as safely as possible. We believe the billions spent on Trident should be invested in our public services

Scrapping Trident The SNP has never and will never support the retention or renewal of Trident. We believe that nuclear weapons are immoral, ineffective and expensive. We want to see a world free from nuclear weapons, and with independence, Scotland can be an advocate for disarmament on the global stage. In times of imposed austerity, the estimated £205 billion to be spent on a Trident replacement over the next 30 years could be far more effectively used to support our public services and build a better future for our children. At Westminster SNP MPs will build a cross-party coalition to scrap Trident as quickly and as safely as possible. We will press the UK government to meet their international obligations on nuclear disarmament."
It will indeed be a negotiation. The SNP will want things too and leaving at least some rUK facilities in situ for a period of time will be one of the bargaining chips; and if indyScotland doesn't have the means or inclination to operate the facilities themselves, they will have to find another way to cushion the blow on the economies of the localities concerned.

An alternative scenario for air would be to invite RNLAF to base some F-16s and assume the QRA role similar to detachments at Keflavik, but that might cause some murmuring in the greener parts of Glasgow...

[Davef68]

A RAFFCA one :ok:Ah, wasn't counting that one! But it keeps the runway open!

[MFC_Fly]

Ah, wasn't counting that one! But it keeps the runway open!

No, being a relief/emergency landing ground for the Lossie jets keeps the runway open ;)