More 787s for QF

[f1yhigh]

Anyone in the know if QF will be ordering more 787s and if so how many more will be needed to meet these new routes they will be flying on.

I think the 787 will catapult QF international to new heights (pun intended) never seen before, with point to point travel becoming more prevalent, QF have an opportunity to dominate in a market no overseas airlines can compete in. Surely it would make sense to get more frames?

[dragon man]

Taking emotion away, they have a third simulator coming that means a minimum of 36 airframes I would say and also they have 35 options at a price that I believe will never be repeated of which only 14 have been delivered or ordered.Will it be an increase in aircraft numbers is the question I would be asking as the 330 is going to need replacing in the years to come and the 787 could be that aircraft.

[Rated De]

Taking emotion away, they have a third simulator coming that means a minimum of 36 airframes I would say and also they have 35 options at a price that I believe will never be repeated of which only 14 have been delivered or ordered.Will it be an increase in aircraft numbers is the question I would be asking as the 330 is going to need replacing in the years to come and the 787 could be that aircraft.

Middle distillates have been a little expensive in the last while, as refining capacity in the US was switched to shale (which is much lighter) than WTI. As a result there were rather large spreads in Jet fuel prices (localised) for an extended period. With demand forecast to continue ebbing lower, some pricing pressure has been removed. Perhaps a brief respite, perhaps not, there are certain other geo-political problems. Any of which can put immediate pressure on operating expense.
With Boeing's "current preoccupations" it would make sense, as the A330 is at best mid life that a fleet plan be executed.

However, sense and fleet planning at Fort Fumble are rarely in the same room.

[dragon man]

The most important thing at Qantas in my opinion is how few pieces of eight do we have to throw the pilot group to further rape their conditions, however that is off subject.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

QF have an opportunity to dominate in a market no overseas airlines can compete in
No other airlines fly B787s to/from Australia?

[dragon man]

No other airlines fly B787s to/from Australia?

I think what he is alluding to is that under first and second freedom rights only the departure country and destination country have automatic rights for direct flights, the likes of SingAir, Emirates etc operate on 5th and 6th freedom rights which means they have to stop in their own country and can’t fly for example Syd direct London.

[Snakecharma]

Dragon Man

Sorry, I don’t mean to sound like a pussy but using a rape analogy in this context is offensive and unnecessary.

i have been involved in industrial negotiations and there is plenty of scope for “robust” discussion and some emotional rhetoric, but FFS Qantas pilots are well compensated professionals.

By all means have a crack at the company for reducing your conditions if you feel the need but 1. Don’t forget you are well compensated in real terms compared to the vast majority of the Australian population and 2. If you don’t like the package you are presented with there are clearly a number of opportunities in China as my email inbox will attest to, particularly for 330 and 777/787 crews.

[B772]

Difficult to see QF setting the world on fire in the future. The opportunity was lost many years ago.

[Icarus2001]

QF have an opportunity to dominate in a market no overseas airlines can compete in Well not really. For every pairing the overseas airline could run a similar (or better) type the other way. So a UK airline could run UK to Perth. Or a US airline could run direct to BN or SYD. If overseas airlines see a market to exploit they will.

[ruprecht]

QF won't dominate anything with the 787. They'll need something bigger.

[dragon man]

Well not really. For every pairing the overseas airline could run a similar (or better) type the other way. So a UK airline could run UK to Perth. Or a US airline could run direct to BN or SYD. If overseas airlines see a market to exploit they will.

Correct, however they or Qantas have to get the aircraft that have the range so far Qantas is the only carrier showing any interest and judging by the the load factors and yield on Perth to London they think they are on a winner.

[PlasticFantastic]

Correct, however they or Qantas have to get the aircraft that have the range so far Qantas is the only carrier showing any interest and judging by the the load factors and yield on Perth to London they think they are on a winner.
Yeah, I agree. There are very few airlines that operate as many longhaul or ULH flights, as a proportion of their network, as Qantas. That means that Qantas can readily purchase and configure its fleet for ULH operations without handicapping itself for shorter flights (e.g. transatlantic, intra-Asia etc.), allowing it to compete more strongly on those routes.
​​​​​​

[neville_nobody]

1. Don’t forget you are well compensated in real terms compared to the vast majority of the Australian population

Sorry you can't run that line with pilots as the vast majority of the Australian Population do not have the working conditions of pilots. Quite simply how many of the 'majority of Australian Population' surrender to a medical exam and the ability to get fired every 3/6 months?? Being a pilot in any airline is no way comparable to any 'normal' job where you go home every night. Just go and ask the majority of the Australian Population to go to work on a Sunday for no extra pay and see what reaction you get. Meanwhile pilots all over Australia do that every week.

But point number you are spot on.:ok:

[f1yhigh]

Yeah, I agree. There are very few airlines that operate as many longhaul or ULH flights, as a proportion of their network, as Qantas. That means that Qantas can readily purchase and configure its fleet for ULH operations without handicapping itself for shorter flights (e.g. transatlantic, intra-Asia etc.), allowing it to compete more strongly on those routes.
​​​​​​

Exactly, this is what I was alluding to. For many other airlines this wouldn't be as advantageous as it is for Qantas, hence my comment.

[Kiltrash]

As a Brit on Holiday in Perth at the moment, great city by the way, may I butt in and ask a question?. BA currently do not operate London - Perth, however as they also have B787-9 (seat cap 216) what is stopping them?, cost / profit comes into it but if Qantas B787-9 (seat Cap 234 ) can presumably make it pay, is there another reason??

[morno]

Sorry you can't run that line with pilots as the vast majority of the Australian Population do not have the working conditions of pilots. Quite simply how many of the 'majority of Australian Population' surrender to a medical exam and the ability to get fired every 3/6 months?? Being a pilot in any airline is no way comparable to any 'normal' job where you go home every night. Just go and ask the majority of the Australian Population to go to work on a Sunday for no extra pay and see what reaction you get. Meanwhile pilots all over Australia do that every week.

But point number you are spot on.:ok:

Ohh cry me a river. What about nurses, firefighters, etc. Pilots aren’t the only ones to work weekends. The well above average remuneration covers that weekend/public holiday work, and if you’re fearing for your career every 3/6 months maybe you should get another job.

I’m not saying it shouldn’t be nothing, but you’re already doing pretty bloody well boys.

[Blueskymine]

As a Brit on Holiday in Perth at the moment, great city by the way, may I butt in and ask a question?. BA currently do not operate London - Perth, however as they also have B787-9 (seat cap 216) what is stopping them?, cost / profit comes into it but if Qantas B787-9 (seat Cap 234 ) can presumably make it pay, is there another reason??

QF have really good utilisation with the frame on the route. It essentially flies from the US, to Melbourne, PER then LHR. It’s roughly 6 frames for that rotation.

Quite simply it’s a thin route that QF are making work with domestic feed.

[Rated De]

Quite simply it’s a thin route that QF are making work with domestic feed.

That the net seat reduction per flight is in excess 245 means that the Load Factor is high.
Shrinking to growth!

[Ski Guru]

Ohh cry me a river. What about nurses, firefighters, etc. Pilots aren’t the only ones to work weekends. The well above average remuneration covers that weekend/public holiday work, and if you’re fearing for your career every 3/6 months maybe you should get another job.

I’m not saying it shouldn’t be nothing, but you’re already doing pretty bloody well boys.

Well tell them to lob an application in. What the rest of the population earn is irrelevant to aviation, as much as it is to pediatrics, or firemen.

[PlasticFantastic]

QF have really good utilisation with the frame on the route. It essentially flies from the US, to Melbourne, PER then LHR. It’s roughly 6 frames for that rotation.

Quite simply it’s a thin route that QF are making work with domestic feed.
Also, I'm not sure whether BA would get good yields from its First cabin on the route, so it might actually not be as good a money maker.

[Global Aviator]

That the net seat reduction per flight is in excess 245 means that the Load Factor is high.
Shrinking to growth!


I may be confusing what you have written. How can there be a net seat reduction when this route has NEVER been done before. Go on all you like about via SGD or DXB but this is track DCT.

[Going Boeing]

I may be confusing what you have written. How can there be a net seat reduction when this route has NEVER been done before. Go on all you like about via SGD or DXB but this is track DCT.

I believe that he means in overall QF seat capacity between Australia & Europe. There used to be 5 B747 services per day which was reduced to 2 A380’s per day. The most recent change reduced that further by substituting the B787 PER-LHR-PER service for one of the A380’s - effectively it’s now down to the equivalent of two B747 services in terms of capacity.

I believe that British Airways & Virgin Atlantic are looking at operating LHR-PER-LHR services because of the yield that QF has been achieving on the route.

[Global Aviator]

So overall seat reduction when looking at LHR via SIN and DXB.

However a gain in a direct route that had never been done before.

Draw what ever conclusions you like, the successful launch of the direct will no doubt be instrumental in the creation of further direct flights.

Now how is Project TequilaSunrise going?

:)

[cooperplace]

United run 787s LAX and SFO to SYD and MEL, maybe BNE also.

[PoppaJo]

The half dozen upcoming 1000-ULR birds will offload what 2 A380s and 2 787s?

From what I gather direct SYD to JFK and LHR is at the expense of the current one stop. Essentially like Perth they are not wanting to grow the market just improve profitability with non stop options. You can connect in Singapore to BA. Offload the dregs to AA.

The point is to reduce seats count, reduce fuel burn, increase in direct business traffic, up goes the numbers, and the end goal is Alan hitting that $100m salary as a thank you for his efforts in making aviation history.

[Bad Adventures]

They’ll need to order more 787s quickly to go double daily SYD-HND if they can’t get the 380 in there, which looks likely.

[dragon man]

They’ll need to order more 787s quickly to go double daily SYD-HND if they can’t get the 380 in there, which looks likely.

Its not likely they have been told.

[Catwalk Dweller]

Snakecharma: I'm sure that dragon man meant no offense when he used the term "rape." Definition #3 of rape (according to dictionary.com) is:
"an act of plunder, violent seizure, or abuse; despoliation; violation:the rape of the countryside."
Words have more than one meaning . . .

[dragon man]

Snakecharma: I'm sure that dragon man meant no offense when he used the term "rape." Definition #3 of rape (according to dictionary.com) is:
"an act of plunder, violent seizure, or abuse; despoliation; violation:the rape of the countryside."
Words have more than one meaning . . .

Thank you.

[AerialPerspective]

As a Brit on Holiday in Perth at the moment, great city by the way, may I butt in and ask a question?. BA currently do not operate London - Perth, however as they also have B787-9 (seat cap 216) what is stopping them?, cost / profit comes into it but if Qantas B787-9 (seat Cap 234 ) can presumably make it pay, is there another reason??

The only operator I've heard make any noise about competing with QF on any of the routes they are operating (LHR/PER) or proposing is VS who have said they 'might' run a 787 LHR to PER and return but I've heard nothing more about it. I doubt BA would bother, rather they would codeshare with QF on the QF9/10.

[stiffwing]

The only operator I've heard make any noise about competing with QF on any of the routes they are operating (LHR/PER) or proposing is VS who have said they 'might' run a 787 LHR to PER and return but I've heard nothing more about it. I doubt BA would bother, rather they would codeshare with QF on the QF9/10.


BA cant do the sector ATM. Their fuel policy wont allow it.

[f1yhigh]

Not to mention Sunrise and the likes or PER-FRA and PER-CDG if they come to fruition, what other airlines will be able to compete with such markets. Even Brisbane to Chicago, I doubt any American airline will be competing in that market. Hence my comment that QF have an opportunity to dominate in a market where they could be the monopoly.

[Sparrows.]

BA cant do the sector ATM. Their fuel policy wont allow it.

What’s the fuel policy issue? What isn’t allowing it?

[Berealgetreal]

Would they do PER MXP (Milan Malpensa)?

[swh]

QF won't dominate anything with the 787. They'll need something bigger.

size doesn’t matter

[swh]

What’s the fuel policy issue? What isn’t allowing it?

QF fuel policy does not require a destination alternate where BA does, QF will plan around landing with only 70 minutes endurance at the landing weight. The 787 only has a little over 4 tonnes in the tanks normally when arriving from LHR.

[topend3]

I think QF is pretending PER-CDG is a highly profitable route that they would love to do if they weren't in a stoush with the owners of the airport, when the reality is they have committed all their aircraft to other more profitable routes (BNE to USA ports) and 747 replacement capacity. The spin doctoring out of that joint is amazing.

[f1yhigh]

I think QF is pretending PER-CDG is a highly profitable route that they would love to do if they weren't in a stoush with the owners of the airport, when the reality is they have committed all their aircraft to other more profitable routes (BNE to USA ports) and 747 replacement capacity. The spin doctoring out of that joint is amazing.

Can't disagree with this, it's blatantly obvious but be that as it may, it doesn't disprove that QF could have already secured more orders of the 787 if this dispute with PAPL was nonexistent. Paris, Frankfurt as well as Johannesburg (with the A330s) could have been possible routes as early as mid 2020 or early 2021 (depending on when the new airframes would be delivered).

[LeadSled]

----------- have an opportunity to dominate in a market where they could be the monopoly.
f1yhigh,
You have me confused, if they are the only one in the market, isn't that by simple reduction both dominating and a monopoly.??
The message, use plain English, unless, of course, you are practicing for a CASA PR job??
Tootle pip!!

[Sparrows.]

QF fuel policy does not require a destination alternate where BA does, QF will plan around landing with only 70 minutes endurance at the landing weight. The 787 only has a little over 4 tonnes in the tanks normally when arriving from LHR.

So the RAAF base up the road won’t cut it?

[JamieMaree]

The RAAF won’t let QF use their bases as an Alternate so BA have bugger all chance.

[Chris2303]

The 787 only has a little over 4 tonnes in the tanks normally when arriving from LHR.

How much is that in time at say 250 knots?

[f1yhigh]

f1yhigh,
You have me confused, if they are the only one in the market, isn't that by simple reduction both dominating and a monopoly.??
The message, use plain English, unless, of course, you are practicing for a CASA PR job??
Tootle pip!!

Had a chuckle at CASA PR job, but touché.

[StudentInDebt]

QF fuel policy does not require a destination alternate where BA does, QF will plan around landing with only 70 minutes endurance at the landing weight. The 787 only has a little over 4 tonnes in the tanks normally when arriving from LHR.Unless it has changed under EASA, BA fuel policy does not require a destination alternate for isolated airfields, a minimum of 2 hours reserve is required (at cruise level I think).

[Snakecharma]

Catwalk and dragon,

understand - but as someone who has seen such violent and soul destroying acts up very close and personal, I reckon there could be better words that convey the same message without the potential to invoke such an emotional response.

i have negotiated pilot EBA’s and they are very much an exercise in give and take and many a party feels aggrieved at some point in the process. Few, if anyone, on either side of the table, walks away from a negotiation feeling happy.

Could I ask that next time just look for alternative words that conveyed the same emotion without the negative connotations.

[*Lancer*]

Unless it has changed under EASA, BA fuel policy does not require a destination alternate for isolated airfields, a minimum of 2 hours reserve is required (at cruise level I think).



Nothing wrong with Busselton

[Street garbage]

...except no fuel, no stairs, no customs...

[Blueskymine]

...except no fuel, no stairs, no customs...

But they named it Busselton international airport and built a fancy terminal didn’t they? ;)

[StudentInDebt]

except no fuel, no stairs, no customs...and no ATC which would be a bit of a deal breaker for an international carrier.

[VH DSJ]

and no ATC which would be a bit of a deal breaker for an international carrier.




That didn't stop Air Asia from diverting to Kalgoorlie last night due weather in Perth. And well done to the QF crew who offered to activate the PAL aerodrome lighting for them. The Air Asia crew wouldn't have had much experience doing that. Good display of airmanship.

[dragon man]

Rumour is more 787 orders to be announced with the annual results.

[Going Boeing]

Rumour is more 787 orders to be announced with the annual results.

B787-10's would be a good choice to replace the B747 on the SYD-HND route. More -9's required to replace the A380 on the DFW route thus freeing up the A380 to operate the JNB route.

[StudentInDebt]

That didn't stop Air Asia from diverting to Kalgoorlie last night due weather in Perth. And well done to the QF crew who offered to activate the PAL aerodrome lighting for them. The Air Asia crew wouldn't have had much experience doing that. Good display of airmanship.
And I doubt it would stop BA diverting to Kalgoorlie in similar circumstances, but that’s not quite the same thing as using Kalgoorlie (or Busselton) as a planned alternate. The last flight I know BA operated to PER was in 2011 (HMQ for the commonwealth heads of state) and I happen to know they used Island Reserve planning (10T for a 772 if you’re interested).

[Catwalk Dweller]

Catwalk and dragon,

understand - but as someone who has seen such violent and soul destroying acts up very close and personal, I reckon there could be better words that convey the same message without the potential to invoke such an emotional response.

i have negotiated pilot EBA’s and they are very much an exercise in give and take and many a party feels aggrieved at some point in the process. Few, if anyone, on either side of the table, walks away from a negotiation feeling happy.

Could I ask that next time just look for alternative words that conveyed the same emotion without the negative connotations.




Snakecharma: You make your point well, and I accept your view - I would never try to say that you're wrong.

However, considering that the term in question was used correctly, and, from its context, not (I believe) used with any malice, could we perhaps just genially and politely agree to disagree?

[Snakecharma]

Catwalk,

all good, and I agree no malice involved, so yes I think we understand each other.

[swh]

Rumour is more 787 orders to be announced with the annual results.

The rumour of cancelling options is not the same as conversion to orders

[f1yhigh]

Rumour is more 787 orders to be announced with the annual results.

Has the 787 made it's business case with QF? If memory serves me well, Alan Joyce said that the 787 would have to show a strong business case before more orders are made.

[AerialPerspective]

Well not really. For every pairing the overseas airline could run a similar (or better) type the other way. So a UK airline could run UK to Perth. Or a US airline could run direct to BN or SYD. If overseas airlines see a market to exploit they will.

Not so sure it's that simple. Qantas is configuring the 787s for this specific task, which based on PER-LHR-PER and MEL-LAX-MEL is profitable. I think the clincher may be that to use the 787 on anything else would require a higher density configuration to provide an adequate return. The overseas airlines would face the same problem and I'm guessing their reluctance might be based on running a similar aircraft and configuration which then excludes that airframe from being viable on their many other routes, whereas for QF this is not a problem because they are only using the aircraft on those specific routes. Of course, when ULH aircraft like the 777-8X become available that advantage might disappear.

[maggot]

Has the 787 made it's business case with QF? If memory serves me well, Alan Joyce said that the 787 would have to show a strong business case before more orders are made.

Well I guess that would involve someone suggesting a pet project of theirs wasn't up to snuff...

[dragon man]

Well I guess that would involve someone suggesting a pet project of theirs wasn't up to snuff...

I would suggest it’s a no brainer, less fuel, higher load factor, cheap purchase price and lastly cheaper pilots , I think he said a 35% increase in productivity.

[knobbycobby]

787 could well be a replacement type for A330 but that’s probably a good few years away. With JFK/LAX/SCL/HKG it’s been a good 747 replacement. More needed to replace the last 6 jumbos next year.
Plenty of deployment to USA routes that people have commented on.
Joyce said at investor briefings that the aircraft on PER-LHR commands a 40% premium in Bus and prem classes. Much less fuel and maintenance cost which is bulk of the cost.
Also said that pilot costs are 50% less than US competition. Been told it’s actually between 40% and 45% less pay than competition.

[Beer Baron]

...and lastly cheaper pilots , I think he said a 35% increase in productivity.
I guessing you don’t believe much else of what he says but you believe this???

He also said you could fly 2 787’s on a route for the same cost as 1 A380. To a degree this is what they are now doing to SFO and BNE - LAX. What does that do for pilot ‘productivity’? (8 pilots instead of 4) What does it do for career progression and total career earning potential?

I think the truth is much more complex than a line from a man who we know enjoys spinning a few creative interpretations of the facts to the media to make himself look good.

[dragon man]

You believe what you want and I will also do the same. You look at it from a company point of view but maybe you can explain to me how a SO on the 787 gets .528% of the FOs hourly rate but on the 380 it’s .778%? If that isn’t a huge win with approx 14 per aircraft then I’m lost.

[Beer Baron]

Nope, I’m looking at it from the pilot point of view in that if you run 2 787’s in lieu of 1 A380 then you need to hire 4 more S/O’s, promote another 2 to F/O and an F/O to Captain.
Great for pilots, not great for employee productivity!

[dragon man]

And I look at it from the point of view of have they increased the international fleet? No, therefore the Captain and FO numbers are the same and in fact you are selling your wages and conditions to get some promotions. Every argument has two sides you and I will always see it differently.

[Beer Baron]

Captain and F/O numbers are not the same at all. We are hiring pilots at a much faster rate than we are losing them. There have been increases in pilots numbers in all ranks.
We hiring new pilots and promoting existing pilots as we launch new routes and add frequency on existing routes.

You certainly can choose to look at the glass half empty but I know every new S/O I fly with is seeing it half full.

[dragon man]

They have increased yes, it’s also to cover for the VR, early retirements, medical retirements , and normal retirements which are increasing as the baby boomers reach the end of their careers,and lastly the surplus needed to build up for a new type.

[dragon man]

It’s all beer and skittles whilst the music continues to play isn’t it Beer Baron! Inevitably, when this game of musical chairs comes to a screeching stop, I’ll feel sorry for anyone stuck in the 787 SO seat. Just ask those 330 SOs who couldn’t move for 9 years.

787 SO pay is a terrible lagacy left by those responsible.

The whole 787 contract that will become fleet pay in the years to come followed by the loss of night credits for 3 man crew next.

[ruprecht]

Recent advice from a senior pilot to an A380 FO.

”Stay on that aircraft until they take it out of service”

:p

[dragon man]

Recent advice from a senior pilot to an A380 FO.

”Stay on that aircraft until they take it out of service”

:p

Then retire.

[f1yhigh]

Just ask those 330 SOs who couldn’t move for 9 years.

I could be wrong, but what about those SOs who've opted and continue to stay SOs for the lifestyle? Not just 330 but 747 etc

[maggot]

Recent advice from a senior pilot to an A380 FO.

”Stay on that aircraft until they take it out of service”

:p
So he's giving himself advice?

[Maggie Island]

So he's giving himself advice?

Admittedly, it’s decent advice!

[maggot]

Admittedly, it’s decent advice!
Id take it but some seniority details don't allow it

[skysook]

I think pilot numbers are based on lines of flying (number of patterns) rather than the number of aircraft. Santiago going daily in the 787 certainly will require extra crew over the 747 going 4 times a week.

[Maggie Island]

Anyone here lucky enough to be doing these sectors!?:}

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-to-operate-project-sunrise-research-flights-direct-new-york-london-to-australia/

[patty50]

Looks like no more 787s for QF, at least not this lap of the sun.

[PlasticFantastic]

Looks like no more 787s for QF, at least not this lap of the sun.
True, but I don't think anyone should read anything into that. QF has fixed dates by which it has to decide whether to confirm each of its 787 options and rights. QF has consistently stated that it will make its decision when those dates fall due. So far, they've taken up all bar one of those options. From their public statements, I think that the next set of options fall due in the first half of 2020 - hence the suggestion that QF would look at further 787 orders next year, once it has made a decision on Sunrise.

[SandyPalms]

rubbish patty. There are 11 more coming to QF

[dragon man]

rubbish patty. There are 11 more coming to QF

why and only 11?

[SandyPalms]

Tongue in Cheek Dragon. JQ have 11. A bit of banter.

[patty50]

rubbish patty. There are 11 more coming to QF

Someone should tell Boeing, they’ve only got 6 more deliveries on the books.


EDIT: If only AJ read pprune he’d know JQ can’t afford D checks on 787s and they better have a roo on the tail before it comes due.

[dragon man]

Tongue in Cheek Dragon. JQ have 11. A bit of banter.

Get it, sorry. Wouldn’t surprise me.

[Street garbage]

Anyone here lucky enough to be doing these sectors!?:}

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-to-operate-project-sunrise-research-flights-direct-new-york-london-to-australia/
I don't think any management pilots contribute on this forum...

[C441]

Anyone here lucky enough to be doing these sectors!?[img]images/smilies/badteeth.gif
I don't think any management pilots contribute on this forum...

Good sources suggest it will be operated primarily by line pilots and will be 'normal' patterns operating to JFK via LAX or LHR via PER as usual. The intent is for the trip to be as close as could reasonably expected when and if Sunrise actually happens.