The end of Fragrant Harbour

[unitedabx]

It would appear the contributers to this forum have fallen away to nothing. The recent riots in Hong Kong, the major HKG companies new social media policies and the shear frustration of being beaten into the ground with no deal pay negotiations has left the aircrew body stunned. If you're not planning to get out of HKG start. If your plans are underway, great. If you're thinking of coming here, don't. After 30 years on this forum under one name or another I'm out. Good luck to you all. Unitedabx out.

[stevieboy330]

A common theme in HK & particularly CX nowadays, nobody could care less anymore. You kick a dog long enough he stops barking, eventually he gives up, some just go somewhere else.

[ACMS]

Or some just quietly get on with the job......

[Farman Biplane]

Goodbye UnitedBollox, thanks for standing up to the bully when they introduced B scale way back when......

[wiltshireman]

This is a terrible shame. It makes meaningless my 23 years with CX. Still all good things ... etc

[Gordomac]

wiltshireman ; No it doesnt. You were a successful entrant when Selection rates were something like one in ten (of fully qualified applicants). Top Legacy carrier. Top equipment and you held down an enviable position. Pour yourself a cheeky one, look through the old pics and realise just how meaningful it all was.

[Frogman1484]

The same 10 people that post here are the guys that post on the AOA forum...most are away on holiday!

[Flex88]

Or some just quietly get on with the job......






And look the other way while every month that broomstick goes up another cm... Apathy, is what has happened here and the price is being paid.

#CXit

[cxorcist]

Quite honestly I don’t think some of you would be happy anywhere.
Isn’t that true everywhere?

[bm330]

Quite honestly I don’t think some of you would be happy anywhere.

The point is that there was a time at this Company when virtually everyone was.

[Betsy]

From the recent management meeting 2019 revenue was 'a few billions' short of target.

Translation: time to leave and do NOT touch 00293.HK.

[canthelpit]

Always the same negative people

[tomuchwork]

The point is that there was a time at this Company when virtually everyone was.

Not entirely true. Was mid 90's. I was flying for a known european carrier and one of our FO decided to give good old Cathay a shot. He passed, was proud(well deserved, even that nobody else from our airline really ever had the intention to go over there, hang around for ever as SO and doing landings only on the sim), left.

Fast forward. It was less than a year later that he left again, couldn't stand how the airline was operating and went back flying short haul here in Europe with another carrier.

BUT I agree. If only pay and benefits count in life Cathay was one of the many places to go back then. Let's face it - we had lots of excellent airlines to choose from in the last century. It is not single companies that "go" bad, it is the aviation industry in general. Just to many "O'Learies" around nowadays......

[Progress Wanchai]

From the recent management meeting 2019 revenue was 'a few billions' short of target.

Translation: time to leave and do NOT touch 00293.HK.

Quite honestly, if management didn’t think they were a few billion short of target then it really would be time to leave. Their results, particularly as an airline rather than an investment company, are appalling. I’ve zero confidence in this management to turn the finances around, but at least they acknowledge its unsustainable.

Agree FH is dead.
It could be argued the virtual elimination of rational debate is not immune to criticism as to the cause of its demise.

[mngmt mole]

The fact that the share price is lower than it was 20 years ago (what other large "western" corp could say that??) is also indicative of just how appallingly mismanaged this airline is. The senior management of any other company would have been sacked years ago. Here at CX, the same incompetent, arrogant and tone deaf fools keep getting promoted, and they then try to make up for their deficiencies by cheating and abusing their own employees (staff travel, 13th month, cos18 etc...). Sick of the lot of them.

[Paul852]

The fact that the share price is lower than it was 20 years ago (what other large "western" corp could say that??)
Here are ten to be going on with: (first figure is share price in US$ 20 years ago, second figure is now; after adjustments for splits etc.)
Ford 30:10
BP 57:41
HSBC 62:41
GE 36:10
AT&T 57:34
Macy's 25:21
GSK 52:40
HP 52:20
Nokia 21:5
Sony 62:52

Source: Macrotrends<dot>net

[arketip]

The fact that the share price is lower than it was 20 years ago (what other large "western" corp could say that??)

Bombardier?

[Asturias56]

"what other large "western" corp could say that??"

Quite a lot actually - compare the top 500 companies 20 years ago with today - a significant portion no longer exist....................

[packapoo]

The end, or just a different fragrance?

[Air Profit]

Asturias, I think you just made Moles point for him if you think about your comments for a few moments.

[Pickuptruck]

Quite honestly I don’t think some of you would be happy anywhere.
that’s the nice part, often I’ll talk to mates elsewhere about the crap they’re putting up with at their airline counting down the years to retirement. But back at CX everyone tells me how wonderful it is everywhere else. The grass isn’t just greener elsewhere it’s a lush paddock full of cheap hookers and booze and big TVs and footy. With the only very occasional day at work.

[Asturias56]

I can see that is you joined CX in the early '80's you were looking forward to a nice expat life with a full service "proper" airline for life. Many would have said that was being optimistic but you never know.

After the Brits agreed to hand back HK it must have been obvious that things were going to change big-time - not all at once but the direction of travel would be towards a locally hired workforce on very different T&C

There have also been the rise of China as an economic power and the vast changes in the airline business. CX is impacted by all of them

It must have been clear for the last 25 years that your T&C's would be changing constantly and not for the better. I just wonder why all the moaners have stayed - it can't be as bad as they say it is..................

[FlexibleResponse]

There is now every reason to suspect that the Fragrant Harbour will come under Mainland Chinese Rule, much sooner, than later.

Mainland meddling with or influence over Laws governing Hong Kong, will eventuate in airline and shipping traffic through the port to rapidly diminish.

Cathay Pacific raison d'être for being based in Hong Kong will become rather problematic for the Swire parent and in turn CX employees.

Also, Cathay Pacific's continued existence in Hong Kong along with its "Freedoms of the Air" rights were and are included in, and subject to the Basic Law (Constitution of Hong Kong) and interpretation of the Rule of Law being based on the Western System of Law.

Interfere with any of that Constitution and poof...all expectation, confidence and trust will be gone.

Now it is just not a matter of if, but when..?

[Asturias56]

It's been that since the mid-80's TBH

Once the Chinese said they wouldn't release the New Territories this has been a one-way journey

I'm surprised they hold off at all - not many countries would in the circumstances

[BlunderBus]

The fragrance will never change

[cxorcist]

It's been that since the mid-80's TBH

Once the Chinese said they wouldn't release the New Territories this has been a one-way journey

I'm surprised they hold off at all - not many countries would in the circumstances

Yes, and won’t it be wonderful when Communist cronyism rules the day and HK becomes like every other mainland city of 10 million people living nuts to butts in uniformity? Gone will be all the different cultures of SE Asia and expat adaptation to the ever-changing business environments. The new norm will be death by rules and Big Brother always watching, freshly armed by their new accomplices, American big tech companies. When the going gets tough, currency manipulation and forced technology transfer will be there to save the day. Whatever it takes to keep the ruling party in power, even tanks rolling across the new bridges to squash any public uprising!!!

[hyg]

Whoever still got any fantasy about this place is really in lala land....

Look at what happened last night, police screaming at cinema goers in Mong Kok, people who just came out of Spider-Man getting screamed at and had batons waved at them by so call police. These thugs pushed passing by citizens onto the road and almost got hit by a car and then asking the citizen if he wants to go one on one.... Legco Members getting abused by police calling them to STFU when demanding to speak to a commander and assaulted thereafter with journalists. Where in the civilised western world do you get to see MPs and reporters getting attacked by the gov? These are all captured on video by the press, yet nothing is done....

[Sam Ting Wong]

Nothing what you guys ever predicted came true.

[Arfur Dent]

Why do you think Merlin and his Family have been down playing everything about Cathay Pacific and its previously elite and, dare I say, experienced Aircrew for the last few decades? Military fast jet drivers and Red Arrows have become Chinese wannabes who don't have any expat delusions and work happily for just another Chinese LCC. That's why I didn't mourn the passing of that selfish greedy Tai Pan called Adrian. Blood sucking leaches the lot of them and they collectively ruined a once brilliant Airline.
Get out while you can to avoid the rush. The Swires have already covered their asses and anyway have a nice little war chest for a rainy day of about £5 Billion.

[Betsy]

Smart money is leaving quietly.. take advantage of the strong USD/HKD now and change it back to AUD/CAD/GBP/EUR or even THB if you're planning to retire there.

[cxorcist]

I get a kick outta all the locals on here acting as if their lives will be better when the expats are gone. If anything, the exact opposite is true. Once all the expats leave, CX will be just like every other Asian low cost carrier, and HK will garner no more interest or respect than Shenzhen, Guangzhou, or any other mainland city. It will be a symbol of what once was possible with democracy and free market capitalism, but has withered into “lost opportunities”... HK isn’t what it is today for any reason other than colonialism and geography. Soon, the Chinese will make sure all of that is gone. Why be exceptional when you can be all the same?

[Kitsune]

I get a kick outta all the locals on here acting as if their lives will be better when the expats are gone. If anything, the exact opposite is true. Once all the expats leave, CX will be just like every other Asian low cost carrier, and HK will garner no more interest or respect than Shenzhen, Guangzhou, or any other mainland city. It will be a symbol of what once was possible with democracy and free market capitalism, but has withered into “lost opportunities”... HK isn’t what it is today for any reason other than colonialism and geography. Soon, the Chinese will make sure all of that is gone. Why be exceptional when you can be all the same?
Be interested for you to supply the exact dates that Hong Kong was ever a ‘democracy’... Hong Kong before 1997 could best be described as a benign dictatorship under the colonial governors, with the Hongs grabbing the Governor’s balls and the Governor grabbing the Hongs in a classic we’re not going to hurt each other are we’ scenario.

[MENELAUS]

Be interested for you to supply the exact dates that Hong Kong was ever a ‘democracy’... Hong Kong before 1997 could best be described as a benign dictatorship under the colonial governors, with the Hongs grabbing the Governor’s balls and the Governor grabbing the Hongs in a classic we’re not going to hurt each other are we’ scenario.

All correct. The Brits, and the locals, got lucky. And wealthy. For 150 years or so. However, the fact remains that HK, and indeed the greater Shenzhen Bay Area would still be knee high in buffaloe **** if it wasn’t for a fairly enlightened administration.
I see the demonstrations harping on about democracy; what exactly would the locals do with it if they had it ?
PRC must be bricking it over contagion. That’s the real rub; persuading the billon or more residents not living in a littoral town or an SEZ that they will get the Bentley continental and the two air cons some day is the real trick. Let’s just hope they’re not tempted to come down and sort it out in their usual inimitable fashion. Game over then.

[Kitsune]

The fallacy is that the CCP won’t do anything to kill the golden goose. The cohesion of China is absolutely paramount, and the smallest sign of contagion to the mainland will precipitate a major intervention... who is going to stop them?

[Dan Winterland]

The cohesion of China is absolutely paramount, and the smallest sign of contagion to the mainland will precipitate a major intervention.

The CPC will be acutely aware that the revolution which toppled the Qing Dynasty started in Hong Kong under the leadership of the Western educated Sun Yat Sen.

[Dan Winterland]

Smart money is leaving quietly.. take advantage of the strong USD/HKD now and change it back to AUD/CAD/GBP/EUR or even THB if you're planning to retire there.

The HK$/US$ peg is being backed up with HKMA reserves as it takes a hit from the trade war. This cannot go on forever. A de-peg will take a big chunk out of any HK$ savings. And then? Some experts think a peg to the CNY makes better sense, which will be a death knell for the HK$ as there will be little point with continuing with it..

[MENELAUS]

The HK$/US$ peg is being backed up with HKMA reserves as it takes a hit from the trade war. This cannot go on forever. A de-peg will take a big chunk out of any HK$ savings. And then? Some experts think a peg to the CNY makes better sense, which will be a death knell for the HK$ as there will be little point with continuing with it..

Yes word is 35% of HKMA reserves. And we’re not talking small biccies here. Think GDP of a good sized country.
Not sustainable as you say.

[anxiao]

And as was mentioned on another thread, the "requirement" by Beijing for the HK government to spend said reserves on white elephant infrastructure projects so there are not the massive reserves that there used to be, means that the HKMA will not have the means to defend an attack on the HKD. At which point China will support its compatriots from its own 3 odd trillion reserves and buy fealty.

Colonialism by debt is a well established technique by China in developing countries. Looks like they could do it on their doorstep...

[cxorcist]

Meanwhile, the Mainland struggles with extremely low growth (~1%) as the trade tariffs take their toll. Xi is feeling the heat. Very interesting times indeed!!!

[wiltshireman]

Thanks Gordo. At a guess we are much the same vintage!

[Flex88]

Or some just quietly get on with the job......






And look the other way while every month that broomstick goes up another cm... Apathy, is what has happened here and the price is being paid.



#CXit

[Flex88]

It would appear the contributers to this forum have fallen away to nothing. The recent riots in Hong Kong, the major HKG companies new social media policies and the shear frustration of being beaten into the ground with no deal pay negotiations has left the aircrew body stunned. If you're not planning to get out of HKG start. If your plans are underway, great. If you're thinking of coming here, don't. After 30 years on this forum under one name or another I'm out. Good luck to you all. Unitedabx out.

If you really want to see what the end actually looks like, simply download the latest issue of "The Journey" it's there in plain sight, hidden from no-one, plain as day !!
No need for speculation..

Just imagine, "remote working" !! (and that's only 1 of the signs, it's over !)

#CXit

[cxorcist]

If you really want to see what the end actually looks like, simply download the latest issue of "The Journey" it's there in plain sight, hidden from no-one, plain as day !!
No need for speculation..

Just imagine, "remote working" !! (and that's only 1 of the signs, it's over !)

#CXit

Hmm, I didn’t realize that technology exists for pilots. Last I checked, at least two pilots required. As for office staff, many of them can’t even do the job being at CXC in person. They’d have no chance from home.

[Air Profit]

I'd say that a profound sign of things "being over" is the recent email from the Airbus CP, telling us just how "thoughtful" this company really is :ooh:. For a senior manager to come out with tripe of that level, considering all the utter dysfunction currently consuming and suffocating this airline is nothing short of the height of delusion. The mind boggles.

[cxorcist]

I'd say that a profound sign of things "being over" is the recent email from the Airbus CP, telling us just how "thoughtful" this company really is :ooh:. For a senior manager to come out with tripe of that level, considering all the utter dysfunction currently consuming and suffocating this airline is nothing short of the height of delusion. The mind boggles.

I don’t even know who the Airbus CP is, and I really don’t care. Does it even matter what s/he thinks/says? That person is a Company approved stooge, why would/should we listen? We certainly don’t care on the Boeing side...