Emirates expansion

[Springbok614]

I recently travelled on Emirates and read on the inflight entertainment info (ICE) that there are very little B777s on order vs a large A380 order. My perception was that the 777 was the workhorse for EK vs the 380 that flies to less destinations and offered a bit a of dated experience vs the 777. Is the 380 the future of EK or is the foresight of expansion at EK in terms of a workhorse like the 777 a bit limited?

[ATCO1962]

I don't know....150 B777-8's and B777-9s on order seems like they still like/need the Boeing money-earner!

[fatbus]

All fleet replacement ! Very slow expansion now on both fleets. EGOs can't run an airline.

[squarecrow]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/emirates-airline-half-year-profit-slides-86-on-oil-hike-118111600033_1.html

[IEFCL]

And does it really mean that new joiners on the 777 will face much longer upgrade times here or the things are so unpredictable at EK so it is not possible to take a reasonably realistic guess?

[BigGeordie]

Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?

[Joker11]

Whats happening with the Boeing B787-10?

[Australopithecus]

Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?


The math has to include 4% of everyone senior, so that should mean a fairly breezy 13 years to command, plus any delays caused by DECs, politics and fleet contraction.. Given the 52% attrition rate over 13 years there’s a better-than-even chance of any new hire fleeing before upgrading anyway.

My experience, upgrading with a hated employer was that it wasn’t worth the wait.

[thenumberpilot]

Things are unpredictable and always have been. Ponder this, though. There are about 2,200 pilots on the 777 (it is hard to be exact as the company no longer publishes a seniority list- you might want to ponder the reasons for that as well.) Officially attrition is 4 or 5%. There is no expansion on the Boeing for the foreseeable future, in fact there is contraction. With 1,100 first officers above you and attrition of 4% it will take you 25 years to get a command. Of course, that might change in either direction. Do you feel lucky?For someone to make up their mind about joining EK for a quick command they need data to support their decision either way. Unfortunately the company's (Mr. AAR) decision was to scramble the seniority list back in 2016. Why that decision was made I do not know but the only logical conclusion would be to make it less transparent.

Luckily there will always be someone in some department that are willing to spill the beans so here it goes:

About a week ago there were 2643 B777 pilots, 1410 CPT's and 1233 FO's
One year ago that number was 2623, 1322 CPT's and 1301 FO's.

The reason the amount of Captains went up was due to the sudden requirement that all 3 men operations needed to become 2 CPT and 1 FO, whereas EK before operated 1CPT/2FO
About 105 captains resigned last 12 months. Last 3 years it's been pretty consistent around 100 (2015 - 96, 2016 - 103)
6 DEC (direct entry captains) joined.

Moving ahead with 3 key facts in mind:

Upgrade is solely depending on attrition as the fleet is no longer expanding.
B777X is a replacement program, not expansion
Around 100 skippers leaves each year.

The current total number of pilots divided with number of airframes suggests 16 pilots per airframe (2643/165) with a ratio of 8,5 CPT to 7,5 FO.
13 airframes leaving 2019 meaning 13*8,5 = 110 less skippers needed

At present, an FO that joined B777 in:
Nov -17 has about 1070 pilots ahead of him/her.
Nov -16 / 955 ahead
Nov -15 / 575 ahead
Nov -14 / 440 ahead
Nov -13 / has about 350 FO's more senior.

Realistical conclusion is practically nil upgrades 2019, 100-120 upgrades 2020 onwards.
Half of the guys joining between nov-13 and -nov14 will see their upgrade 2020 and the other half 2021 setting the time to command to about 7 years.
It'll stay pretty constant for a few years to slowly increase to 8 around 2023 onwards.
That's based on current fleet plan, rate of people leaving and upgrade policy.

Someone joining 2019 will wait 8 years++ for a command on B777 factoring in senior FO's leaving and an increase in numbers of CPT's leaving.

Common arguments:

"there are many locals in that list that is far away from upgrade".
True and false, There are about 190 UAE nationals with staff numbers <430000 that is included in these numbers.
However, around 100 of them have staff numbers <399000 meaning they'll be up for command fairly soon

"my buddy that joined 6 month before me just got his command on the 4 year mark so I should be up pretty soon"
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.

"a lot of FO's have missed out on their upgrade and are permanent FO's"
About 50

On a side note:
Total number of EK pilots:
Nov 18: 4231.
Nov 17: 4200
Nov 16: 4215
All-time-high was February 2017 with 4250

You can scramble numbers to hide the truth but never the opposite!

[fatbus]

That a good recap . I'm sure @ the same on the 380. Would be surprised to see 777 x options become the 787 hence no measurable fleet increase for 5-8 years. Capt upgrades purely due to attrition both fleets.

[Springbok614]

Thenumberpilot, interesting numbers- thank you. Would this suggest that EK have reached it’s capacity as an airline in terms of it’s offering in the global airline passenger market? No further/ immediate room for expansion in terms of passenger demand for what it offers? Does FZ’s offering play a role in this or is there not much conflict in the different offerings?

[skyvan]

Does anyone know what will happen to the 787 orders? At RTGS the managers are planning for them coming, so if that happens, (and they don't end up with flydubai) the numbers will change, a lot.

[newscaster]

EK have been given permission to fly A380 to Islamabad.

[SaulGoodman]

Heard the rumour EK is going to outsource the cargo biz. Any truth in it?

[High Energy]

Does anyone know what will happen to the 787 orders? At RTGS the managers are planning for them coming, so if that happens, (and they don't end up with flydubai) the numbers will change, a lot.

Those 787's will NOT end up with flydubai. If anything they'll opt for the 797 from 2025 onwards but flydubai will transition to purely an all 737 MAX fleet.

[kcar]

777 fleet shrinking. Blah blah blah it's true.

What's all true is the 380 fleet orders are for replacement and expansion.

40 x 787's also on order.

Commands aren't slowing down anytime soon. Especially not with the attrition rate which has no signs of slowing down.
Commands on A380 may continue as normal but for the B777 it has slowed down a lot already and is getting even longer day-by-day

[desertcamel]

Expectations vs reality.
lower your expectations to defeat disappointment.
thats one thing i learned from EK .

[kcar]

Really? You sure? Because the brand spanking new 777 captain I flew with this week did 4 years as FO.

Read "thenumberpilots" post again.

"my buddy that joined 6 month before me just got his command on the 4 year mark so I should be up pretty soon"
Not at all, he got very lucky jumping the list with the implementation due to sudden age requirement combined with the quick need for upgrade 2CPT/1FO
The age requirement has subsequently been lowered so very few will now be bypassed due age and the 2CPT/1FO has already been sorted out.

[kcar]

Completely irrelevant. This guy did his upgrade AFTER the age limit change.

Don't forget there is no seniority with the upgrades. You either fit the model or they skip you *cough* too many sick days *cough*.
He must have been in the process when the age requirement change occurred and was just lucky to stay with the plan.
Simple mathematical fact is upgrade time on the 777 is slowing down a lot!

[fatbus]

There will always be the glass half full pilots . Many FOs hoping the 4.1 year thing is a reality. Dig deeper into STC statements in the press and one should be able to put together the puzzle. Firm vs options vs replacement vs airport capacity vs airport construction.

[aviation_enthus]

Regardless of all the mental arithmetic in this thread, none of us can really predict the future. That being said I agree the recent 4 year upgrades are an anomaly rather than the new normal!

Average resignations have been 250-300 the last two years so that is more like 6-7% a year. Also worth mentioning is they hired 700 pilots back in 2011 (from what I’ve been told). Over the next 18 months all those guys are going to start hitting 7 years or 2 years in command. Given a lot of people seem to leave about 7-9 years I would guess resignations may actually increase.

The loss of 777 airframes in 2019 will have less of an effect than feared because they already had most of them parked at various times throughout this year. So EK aren’t really using the full fleet anyway.

When the 787 and 777X arrives won’t they have to transfer a number of crew over to those fleets to start training etc? So for a while they will need extra crew until they establish sufficient numbers to keep everything running smoothly.

In my experience (from asking people working here) we loose a few f/o’s before upgrade, a lot of captains around 7-9 years and then there’s the 15+ veterans that don’t want to go home. Personally out of the 9 guys I joined with it’s highly likely only 7 of us will still be here by the time our shot at upgrade comes around.

Given all this upgrades should got back to the 5-6 mark on the 777. But 8-10 years for an upgrade? I don’t think so. You have to ask, who would wait that long in the sand pit when you could do it back in your own country?! I know personally I won’t wait that long, I’ll be gone before then.

[thenumberpilot]

Average resignations have been 250-300 the last two years so that is more like 6-7% a year. Also worth mentioning is they hired 700 pilots back in 2011 (from what I’ve been told). Over the next 18 months all those guys are going to start hitting 7 years or 2 years in command.
Some more "Mental arithmetic"

Resignations both fleet between
Nov 17 - Nov 18: 266 (making it 6,2%)
Nov 16 - Nov 17: 212 (5,1%)
Nov 15 - Nov 16: 198 (5,1%)

Out of the "700 pilots" ..
I guess you'd be interested in the ones reaching 7 years and 3 month for the provident fund, meaning people that resigns on the 7y mark then fulfil their 90 days notice. Counting from this date backwards.
25/11/2011 - 24/11/2012 - 516 people joined, 416 are still with the company of which 293 are on the 777 consisting of 235 captains and 58 FO's.
From the "normality" of 100 B777 skippers leaving pear year EK had a statistical increase of about 8%, likely due to the 7 year mark and hiring spike back in 2010-2012 like you said. I myself was guilty of expecting a significant increase in resignations 2017-2018 but that significant increase turned out to be less than 10%
People bitch and moan claiming they'll leave but numbers proves they don't, at least not in any significant number.
I guess it's a case of "the more I bitch and moan I will encourage other people to leave, less will join and the company will just have to bump up the package and get me what I deserve".
Before you pass judgement, I was one of the ones bumping up the stats by 8%

So for the mental arithmetic side of things you can safely assume the B777 capt attrition to be 110 per year onwards.

One thing to consider though, the world economy and aviation industry has had a long upswing so an unavoidable downturn is lurking around the corner. Hiring in the developed world will likely reduce significantly meaning less people will leave EK and instead decide to ride out the storm. This is the second longest business cycle expansion since the history of economic research dated back to 1850. If no contraction before July 2019 it'll be the longest ever. The longest expansion to date finished in 2001 which for the aviation industry resulted in a complete hiring freeze.
Naturally I can't put a number on that but it's something to take under consideration for future career planning.

Given all this upgrades should got back to the 5-6 mark on the 777. But 8-10 years for an upgrade? I don’t think so. You have to ask, who would wait that long in the sand pit when you could do it back in your own country?! I know personally I won’t wait that long, I’ll be gone before then.I'm going to take a wild guess and say you joined Dec 2016 with a 456xxx staff number.
The most "senior" 456xxx 777 pilot has got 962 777 FO's ahead of him.
You do the math

Bye bye Dubai

[Emma Royds]

Why the obsession with upgrade? Is EK suddenly a great place to work from the left seat? Don't think so. Better finding a job you actually like, in a country you actually want to live in. Even if that means flying something more modest, but at least you aren't bitching and moaning all night long.

It can't be denied that a command will open more opportunities for moving on from EK. I suspect that herein is the main motive for getting the command for many.

Don't forget there is no seniority with the upgrades. You either fit the model or they skip you *cough* too many sick days *cough*.

If seniority was not considered then how would they decide who to review for the forthcoming command review board? Just because someone is unfortunate to get bypassed, doesn't mean that seniority is not an initial consideration, when it comes to reviewing suitable candidates.

[fatbus]

Yet again someone who was bypassed for what ever the reason moans the most and makes it sound like it's the norm.

[haughtney1]

I’ve had a mate hit me up regarding a variety of things, most which I can answer...the one thing I’m struggling with is the current education allowance for kids at primary and secondary school. Any numbers would be great.

[777-200LR]

The thirty-somethings were happy to bypass the more senior FOs who were 30 or 31. Now that the age restriction has been reduced to 30, they call fowl that their upgrade is being delayed or in their words "bypassed". Seniority has always been a factor when it comes to the review board, and always will.