Another A380 Woe?

[reverserunlocked]

Wonder if LH are happy with their 747-8s? Wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if they stay in service after the 380’s have gone...

[SeenItAll]

Wonder if LH are happy with their 747-8s? Wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if they stay in service after the 380’s have gone...

Well, LH is a big cargo carrier in addition to PAX. And the 748 is a lot more capable a cargo handler than the A380. This flexibility of the 748 could be its savior.

[sk999]

Well, LH is a big cargo carrier in addition to PAX. And the 748 is a lot more capable a cargo handler than the A380. This flexibility of the 748 could be its savior.

Someone once did a study comparing cargo loads on an A380 v. other aircraft (all types) operating the exact same route by the same airline. The A380 carried 5 tons less cargo on average. By weight, that's equivalent to about 48 passengers, by my calculation.

[procede]

Someone once did a study comparing cargo loads on an A380 v. other aircraft (all types) operating the exact same route by the same airline. The A380 carried 5 tons less cargo on average. By weight, that's equivalent to about 48 passengers, by my calculation.
The issue with cargo on the A380 is the limited underwing space, not the weight. Recalculating it to number of passengers is thus pointless.

[reverserunlocked]

There is a school of thought that the 380’s time may still come as airports get more slot/ gate constrained and the only way forward is bigger aircraft. That was the thinking in the late 80s when the big bus was conceived yet still hasn’t really materialised even now.

Even if such a scenario arose, it would be too late for the 380, which will be out of production in a few short years with little to zero chance of a reprisal.

The 747-8 has a better chance, with its better economics, ability to operate to many more airports, cargo capacity and future resale value as a freighter. Only time will tell.

You could argue that a similar situation exists with the 757, which is much in demand as a freighter and lacks a direct replacement on many of the missions it currently undertakes. Only the thirsty engines and physical age of the airframes are sending them off into the sunset.

If somehow there had been enough business to keep the line open it may too have had a ‘second coming’.

[SOPS]

I still fail to understand why they killed off the 757

[DaveReidUK]

I still fail to understand why they killed off the 757

Possibly connected with the fact that hardly anyone wanted to buy them any more.

[rog747]

Possibly connected with the fact that hardly anyone wanted to buy them any more.

The airlines all went for the cheap 737-800/900 and now the MAX, plus the A320/321 family - none of which could really stand in as a 757 follow on act.

But now the CFM Leap-1A powered aircraft is equipped with a one-class 220-seat layout, providing a range of around 3,300nm.
Depending on a lower payload, Airbus says the A321LR is capable of longer-range operations of up to 4,000nm

The new rumoured A321LRX plans to be able to offer 4750-5000nm

Arkia just received the first A321NeoLR ACF featuring 220 seats in a single-class and to be deployed from TLV, saying it is the first narrow-body more cost efficient than the 757's it operated by over 20%.
Longer range holiday destinations from TLV are possible with the aircraft like Zanzibar Mombasa Maldives Colombo and Seychelles.(at 200 seats then MRU is within range)

So is the first real 757 replacement ?

Back in the day the charter fit 757 could manage LGW to BAH or BGR with 220 pax non stop.

Ok sorry for the OT wander

[Espada III]

The fate of the A380 and the possible demand for it in the future once it has gone out of production reminds me also of some cars, which are boxy, unfashionable and didn't sell well when new. However, the market suddenly woke up to their facilities and the second hand values remain stable, far outstripping the values of more mainstream cars of a similar age. Such cars include the NIssan Cube, Honda FR-V, Daihatsu Sirion (note all Japanese) which maintain some form of cult following. For people of limited means, these are reliable, spacious family cars good for dragging the famly around.

It would be more than fascinating if the A380 followed the example of these cars and it is found that airlines from countries with high and dense populations suddenly find a route between city pairs that a full economy seating plan makes economic sense to operate. Bit of a change from the showers and suites of the sandpit airlines.

[reverserunlocked]

It’s an interesting idea, but it’s hard to see the 380 ending up schlepping around Africa or parts of Asia like you see old 747s, Mad Dogs and 737s doing now. I just think it’s too complex and technical to support for those kinds of missions.

In the next year or two you’ll see AF and LH sending some of theirs back. Be interesting to see what fate awaits.

[tdracer]

I still fail to understand why they killed off the 757

The 737 NG - especially the 737-900ER - killed the 757. The 757 was always relatively expensive to build - during development of a new aircraft there is always an ongoing struggle between light weight and inexpensive to produce - on the 757 light weight nearly always won out. OTOH, the 737 was relatively cheap to build - and with the -900ER it could carry nearly as many people as the 757, with similar seat mile costs, and it was way cheaper to buy.
Boeing tried to breath new life into the 757 with the -300 model, but that was a huge flop (good seat mile costs, but still expensive to build and the turn times for a 250 passenger single aisle are horrible). By the time Boeing pulled the plug on the 757, production was down to one/month which drove the overhead costs per aircraft through the roof. There simply was no longer money to be made building 757s.