MH 370 final report

[jcw8]

Nothing new in final MH370 report released this morning. Plane was sound, pilots in good health mentally and physically. Investigators not able to find out why transponder turned off or why plane diverted from filed flight plan under human control, not autopilot. They can't rule out interference on flight by third party. Remains one of world's aviation mysteries. Thoughts are with families of passengers and crew

[birdspeed]

MH370 final report out.

So what’s new in this report? To start with, the report says the turn back after IGARI had to be manually flown, the rate of turn was too high for any automatic mode.

This must mean the pilots were faced with massive electrical failures sufficient to knock out the autopilot. The aircraft was then seen on primary radar to meander and not maintain any fixed level(phugoid?).

With communication/electrical failures, followed shortly after by pilot incapacitation, we are surely looking at a decompression caused by the rupture of the crew oxygen cylinder in the avionics bay under the flightdeck. No other scenario fits so neatly. There are not many failures that will allow passive flight to fuel exhaustion. The pilots have finally been cleared of any nefarious acts.

Without hard evidence the officials will not speculate about any cause, they only report known facts. As the final crash site is unlikely to be found, it’s going to be down to us, ppruners to fill in the gaps.


http://mh370.mot.gov.my/MH370SafetyInvestigationReport.pdf

[grizzled]

"This must mean the pilots were faced with massive electrical failures sufficient to knock out the autopilot."
No... that's not what it "must" mean.

"The aircraft was then seen on primary radar to meander and not maintain any fixed level(phugoid?)"
If you read the report you would have noted that those vertical variances were discounted. If you know anything about (those types of) military primary survellance radars, or do some reading about them, you'll understand why the derived altitudes should be discounted.

"we are surely looking at a decompression caused by the rupture of the crew oxygen cylinder"
My Lord...

"No other scenario fits so neatly"
My Lord (again)...

"The pilots have finally been cleared" etc
I can't even bring myself to say "My Lord" again

"it’s going to be down to us, ppruners to fill in the gaps"
Ahhh! Now I see! Of course -- the solution lies with those who frequent pprune! (especally those who frequent "Rumours and News"!) The silly Malaysians and Aussies and Brits and French and Americans and Chinese, etc. etc. could have saved a lot of time, effort and money.
My Lord...

[flash8]

Was there any impact analysis done on the right flaperon recovered for witness marks to determined if this was a controlled ditching?
I can't see that in the report.

[grizzled]

Was there any impact analysis done on the right flaperon recovered for witness marks to determined if this was a controlled ditching?
I can't see that in the report.

Yes, in section 2.6.3 -- and in the Appendices (series of 1.12) as well.

[Uncle Fred]

"This must mean the pilots were faced with massive electrical failures sufficient to knock out the autopilot."
No... that's not what it "must" mean.

"The aircraft was then seen on primary radar to meander and not maintain any fixed level(phugoid?)"
If you read the report you would have noted that those vertical variances were discounted. If you know anything about (those types of) military primary survellance radars, or do some reading about them, you'll understand why the derived altitudes should be discounted.

"we are surely looking at a decompression caused by the rupture of the crew oxygen cylinder"
My Lord...

"No other scenario fits so neatly"
My Lord (again)...

"The pilots have finally been cleared" etc
I can't even bring myself to say "My Lord" again

"it’s going to be down to us, ppruners to fill in the gaps"
Ahhh! Now I see! Of course -- the solution lies with those who frequent pprune! (especally those who frequent "Rumours and News"!) The silly Malaysians and Aussies and Brits and French and Americans and Chinese, etc. etc. could have saved a lot of time, effort and money.
My Lord...

Well said Grizzled. Well said indeed.

[Intruder]

So what’s new in this report? To start with, the report says the turn back after IGARI had to be manually flown, the rate of turn was too high for any automatic mode.
This must mean the pilots were faced with massive electrical failures sufficient to knock out the autopilot. The aircraft was then seen on primary radar to meander and not maintain any fixed level(phugoid?).

With communication/electrical failures, followed shortly after by pilot incapacitation, we are surely looking at a decompression caused by the rupture of the crew oxygen cylinder in the avionics bay under the flightdeck. No other scenario fits so neatly. There are not many failures that will allow passive flight to fuel exhaustion. The pilots have finally been cleared of any nefarious acts.WOW! How can you even BEGIN to connect the dots here?!?

If there were "massive electrical failures sufficient to knock out the autopilot", then how on (or over) earth could the airplane settle into stable and "passive flight to fuel exhaustion"?!?

Neatly?!? I'll say it again... "My Lord!"

[flash8]

Yes, in section 2.6.3 -- and in the Appendices (series of 1.12) as well.

So, we are still really none the wiser at this juncture if truth be told.

[Coochycool]

Havent finished reading the report yet, but the first raised eyebrow for me is the alleged high altitudes achieved on an aircraft we know had recently taken off carrying 49.1 tons fuel + 239 souls on board.

FL475 seems unlikely, but equally FL445 10nm south of Penang, if one is to believe the premise that a rogue pilot flew there intentionally for a last look of home.

The mil radar returns are noted as being of questionable value altitude wise which surprises me, but it still begs the question.....How high can a 772ER get thus loaded?

The parallel track with the Kota Bharu airway is also notable, suggesting "intentional manual input" indeed.

[neville_nobody]

Intriguing how this saga has gone full circle, basically every theory under the sun has been thrown at it by every possible so-called expert and here we are back at square one with what is possibly a hijack scenario.

If this was a hijack I would suggest it runs to deep to ever be solved.

[Atlas Shrugged]

Oh, not this again............

[ETOPS]

I was a Boeing 772 Captain for 4 years and regularly flew at FL410 - simply following the flight plan produced by the company. Even at high weights there was sufficient margin (the gap between VMO and the hockey stick) to allow occasional increases to FL420. That the certified max was FL420 wouldn't have worried someone who was trying "steal" MH370 and a climb above 42,000' might have been possible - I doubt FL475 was attainable and reckon the previously mentioned radar limitations are to blame for that figure.

[mrdeux]

With communication/electrical failures, followed shortly after by pilot incapacitation, we are surely looking at a decompression caused by the rupture of the crew oxygen cylinder in the avionics bay under the flightdeck. No other scenario fits so neatly. There are not many failures that will allow passive flight to fuel exhaustion. The pilots have finally been cleared of any nefarious acts.

As far as I know, there has only ever been one oxygen bottle that spontaneously ruptured....

[Old Fella]

We can all speculate endlessly. A couple of things which I believe are, or at least could be, significant.
(1) The F/O was on his last training flight to type, and
(2) the opportunity existed for one pilot to lock the other out of the cockpit.

If either pilot left the cockpit and the other did lock the cockpit door it would have been a simple
matter for the lone pilot in the cockpit to don his oxy mask and depressurise the aircraft. Time
of useful consciousness, for those outside the cockpit without access to pressure breathing equipment,
would have been minimal leaving the handling pilot to disable the transponder and ACARS.
Of the two pilots it is reasonable to suspect the PIC would have the knowledge to do so. Why the
autopilot would have been disengaged, and for how long, is anyone's guess.

Whilst we may never find the answer my money would be on a deliberate act by one of the crew.

[ETOPS]

Old Fella
My thoughts exactly - the combination of a flight sim available to practise the evasion, a willing trainee who simply would do as he was told (get me a bottle of water from the galley) and the mechanical deadlock in the door handle would give the Captain all the time he needed to carry this out. Single user of the flight deck O2 system gives many hours of continuous use allowing depressurisation and thus nobody conscious except him.

The question remains why?

[Less Hair]

Could it have been some suicide without leaving traces in order to secure his family the insurance payout?

[core_dump]

Malaysia's civil aviation chief resigns in wake of MH370 report

Malaysia’s civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman resigned Tuesday after a report revealed that Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370 was likely deliberately steered off course and flew over the Southern Indian Ocean for more than seven hours after communications were severed.

I wonder why he waited so long. It's not like anything new was in the report. I also don't understand why he felt the need to resign in the first place. What's that going to accomplish?

[birdspeed]

The report says they could find no one onboard with malicious intent. In the press conference the “inspector-in-charge” said the power failures to the communication systems(transponder,acars,satcom) were either turned off, OR power to them failed.

This means we are talking about a mechanical failure—an accident.

Yes, the inspector goes on to say ‘they cannot exclude the possibility of unlawful interference by a third party,’ but that’s because evidence is lacking either way.

The press have misinterpreted the reporting that the first turn was manually flown, and jumped to a conclusion it was a nefarious act—-WRONG.

[Switchbait]

We can all speculate endlessly. A couple of things which I believe are, or at least could be, significant.
(1) The F/O was on his last training flight to type, and
(2) the opportunity existed for one pilot to lock the other out of the cockpit.

If either pilot left the cockpit and the other did lock the cockpit door it would have been a simple
matter for the lone pilot in the cockpit to don his oxy mask and depressurise the aircraft. Time
of useful consciousness, for those outside the cockpit without access to pressure breathing equipment,
would have been minimal leaving the handling pilot to disable the transponder and ACARS.
Of the two pilots it is reasonable to suspect the PIC would have the knowledge to do so. Why the
autopilot would have been disengaged, and for how long, is anyone's guess.

Whilst we may never find the answer my money would be on a deliberate act by one of the crew.


The above should be the final report. Any normal thinking person knows this.

[Coochycool]

Thanks for the reply ETOPS.

The elephant in the room here for me is this.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_Ibrahim_sodomy_trials#Second_trial

Whilst I am normally loath to indulge what some might consider conspiracy theory, the coincidence here in known facts seems compelling.

The day before the MH370 incident, the leader of the Malaysian opposition party finally lost his long running legal battle on trumped up charges of sodomy, obviously designed to discredit and neutralise his threat. He was a known friend of the PIC. Giving the Captain possible motive to embarrass the standing government in the best way he knew how. We'll never know if this is what actually happened, but it does strike me as plausible.

The most disappointing thing about the final report must be that subsequent to Anwar's release and royal pardon upon the recent change of government, there still seems to be reluctance to discuss this aspect within MAS and political circles.

Cooch

[Andy_S]

In the press conference the “inspector-in-charge” said the power failures to the communication systems(transponder,acars,satcom) were either turned off, OR power to them failed.

This means we are talking about a mechanical failure—an accident.

No it doesn't.

How can you discount the systems being deliberately switched off for malicious reasons?

[The Ancient Geek]

The facts are simple - there are no facts.
More pointless theories, I am surprised that nobody has yet claimed alien abduction.

In the absence of any real evidence it should be time for the moderators to lock this thread until the wreckage is located.

[belfrybat]

For all we know the flight deck was struck by a meteorite, knocking out the pilots and disabling parts of the electricals. And that's the final word, I say.

[birdspeed]

The Ancient Greek....true, there are not many facts, but there is plenty of circumstantial evidence.

1/ crew & passengers have all had their backgrounds checked, nothing suspicious found.
2/ there was a sudden event that disabled communication systems and possibly autopilot.
3/ one hour later satcom powers up.
4/ the aircraft continues to fuel exhaustion. When ever this happens it is usually due to decompression and crew incapacitation. Four past incidents I can think of. So,
5/ crew incapacitation.

[booke23]

We can all speculate endlessly. A couple of things which I believe are, or at least could be, significant.
(1) The F/O was on his last training flight to type, and
(2) the opportunity existed for one pilot to lock the other out of the cockpit.

If either pilot left the cockpit and the other did lock the cockpit door it would have been a simple
matter for the lone pilot in the cockpit to don his oxy mask and depressurise the aircraft. Time
of useful consciousness, for those outside the cockpit without access to pressure breathing equipment,
would have been minimal leaving the handling pilot to disable the transponder and ACARS.
Of the two pilots it is reasonable to suspect the PIC would have the knowledge to do so. Why the
autopilot would have been disengaged, and for how long, is anyone's guess.

Whilst we may never find the answer my money would be on a deliberate act by one of the crew.

The above, or a slight variation of the above is where my money is too. Especially as the PIC had put the planned evasion (or whatever you want to call it) route into his home flight sim, presumably to rehearse.

[MATELO]

The above, or a slight variation of the above is where my money is too. Especially as the PIC had put the planned evasion (or whatever you want to call it) route into his home flight sim, presumably to rehearse.

Exactly Booke23; & especially as that route concluded into one of the most expansive & uncharted part of the ocean in that particular area of the world.

[Icarus2001]

The pilots have finally been cleared of any nefarious acts. No they most definitely have not. They flew along an FIR boundary for goodness sake.
Your post makes no sense.

[Ian W]

The Ancient Greek....true, there are not many facts, but there is plenty of circumstantial evidence.

1/ crew & passengers have all had their backgrounds checked, nothing suspicious found.
2/ there was a sudden event that disabled communication systems and possibly autopilot.
3/ one hour later satcom powers up.
4/ the aircraft continues to fuel exhaustion. When ever this happens it is usually due to decompression and crew incapacitation. Four past incidents I can think of. So,
5/ crew incapacitation.


This hamster-wheel was done to death last time:
2, There was no 'sudden event' the radiating aids were switched off in the seconds after handoff from Malaysia in a known area of poor radar cover, and the aircraft did not call Vietnam control.
3. The only comms system that was not switched off was SATCOM which maintained transport layer handshakes with the INMARSAT geostationary satellite. This is probably because very few if any crew members are either aware that SATCOM handshakes with the satellite even when not used and even if they were aware probably have no idea how to switch the SATCOM off. I would suspect that no non-engineers realize that these comms systems keep exchanging network messages even if untouched.
4. The aircraft did not just continue to fuel exhaustion. After all the radiating aids were switched off, immediately after handoff, it climbed to its ceiling and then turned back to fly along the Malaysian/Thai FIR boundary - across to Penang (the captain's birthplace) where it appears to have descended, then turned right North along the Malacca straits and turned to left to parallel the airway toward Sri Lanka then after passing Banda Aceh and clearing Sumatra and just after leaving radar cover, the aircraft turned South and flew into the Southern Indian Ocean.
What a chain of coincidences for a disabled aircraft :D
5. Someone in the crew was not incapacitated or 4, above would not be possible. Or of course someone else with the capability to operate a 777, but there were none on the passenger list.

As the report says - someone was flying the aircraft deliberately in a way to avoid suspicion and then to escape to somewhere it would not be found. Had it not been for the SATCOM and the rather strange figure of 8 orbit of the particular not-quite-geostationary satellite, and some very talented INMARSAT mathematicians the suspicion would have been that the aircraft ditched in the South China Sea. As it is, the aircraft was tracked to an area the size of Texas in the mainly unexplored South Indian Ocean. An area that _purely coincidentally_ the Captain had been practicing flying to in his home flight simulator kit. The position of the crash and the fact that there was a crash was confirmed by what wreckage has washed up months later on the coasts to the West of the crash site.

[booke23]

This hamster-wheel was done to death last time:
2, There was no 'sudden event' the radiating aids were switched off in the seconds after handoff from Malaysia in a known area of poor radar cover, and the aircraft did not call Vietnam control.
3. The only comms system that was not switched off was SATCOM which maintained transport layer handshakes with the INMARSAT geostationary satellite. This is probably because very few if any crew members are either aware that SATCOM handshakes with the satellite even when not used and even if they were aware probably have no idea how to switch the SATCOM off. I would suspect that no non-engineers realize that these comms systems keep exchanging network messages even if untouched.
4. The aircraft did not just continue to fuel exhaustion. After all the radiating aids were switched off, immediately after handoff, it climbed to its ceiling and then turned back to fly along the Malaysian/Thai FIR boundary - across to Penang (the captain's birthplace) where it appears to have descended, then turned right North along the Malacca straits and turned to left to parallel the airway toward Sri Lanka then after passing Banda Aceh and clearing Sumatra and just after leaving radar cover, the aircraft turned South and flew into the Southern Indian Ocean.
What a chain of coincidences for a disabled aircraft :D
5. Someone in the crew was not incapacitated or 4, above would not be possible. Or of course someone else with the capability to operate a 777, but there were none on the passenger list.

As the report says - someone was flying the aircraft deliberately in a way to avoid suspicion and then to escape to somewhere it would not be found. Had it not been for the SATCOM and the rather strange figure of 8 orbit of the particular not-quite-geostationary satellite, and some very talented INMARSAT mathematicians the suspicion would have been that the aircraft ditched in the South China Sea. As it is, the aircraft was tracked to an area the size of Texas in the mainly unexplored South Indian Ocean. An area that _purely coincidentally_ the Captain had been practicing flying to in his home flight simulator kit. The position of the crash and the fact that there was a crash was confirmed by what wreckage has washed up months later on the coasts to the West of the crash site.


Excellent post Ian W.

An interesting point regarding the PIC's home flight sim. He had Flight Sim 2004 and a 777-200LR addon installed on a second hard drive that wasn't connected to his computer at the time of the police search. He had Flight Sim X installed on the main Hard drive and seemed to carry out his research on the 'hidden' FS2004 sim. The files showing the rehearsed route had been deleted from the second hard drive, but were recovered by the FBI. Suspicious I'd say.

[Coochycool]

Ian W/booke23

Thanks both for your input.

I've long had my suspicions about the Captain for the reasons mentioned earlier, but this is the first I've heard that incriminating flight sim evidence was actually retrieved.

Do you have a link to a reliable source for that?

Cooch

[flash8]

If all Pilots who had flight sim at home and obscure self-created FMS routes saved were investigated.. they'd be none of us left....

[Rwy in Sight]

If all Pilots who had flight sim at home and obscure self-created FMS routes saved were investigated.. they'd be none of us left....

Nicely said! My understanding is that every single cause appears to have a hole! The captain could have chosen a better place to supposedly commit suicide choosing an even larger depth at a similar distance - in the deepest ocean of the world.

[booke23]

Ian W/booke23

Thanks both for your input.

I've long had my suspicions about the Captain for the reasons mentioned earlier, but this is the first I've heard that incriminating flight sim evidence was actually retrieved.

Do you have a link to a reliable source for that?

Cooch

Detail on the PIC flight sim here Simulator Data from Computer of MH370 Captain: Part 1 « The Disappearance of MH370 (http://mh370.radiantphysics.com/2017/10/12/simulator-data-from-computer-of-mh370-captain-part-1/)

There is nothing new with the release of this final report. The details regarding the PIC's sim have been in the public domain for a while now.

If all Pilots who had flight sim at home and obscure self-created FMS routes saved were investigated.. they'd be none of us left....

I suppose, after all sims are great for messing around with. But not many pilots would go on to actually fly such an obscure self-created route for real.

[Chronus]

I would suggest the single most important known fact in the investigation report is at paragraph 1.9.5.2. It reads :

"Throughout the flight of MH370, the aircraft communicated through the Inmarsat Indian
Ocean Region (IOR) I-3 Satellite and the GES in Perth, Australia."
The emphasis in bold characters are mine.

This can only mean that the aircraft remained airborne and its flight ended when its fuel was exhausted or nearly exhausted.
The investigation report has concluded that in the initial phases the aircraft was under human control.
Given all the other matters dealt with, in what is a very thorough and complete investigation, where no detail appears to have been overlooked, the reasonable conclusion is that for reasons unknown its crew, or any other person(s) on board, were unable to divert the aircraft from its final course to an unknown destination. There is no other credible evidence to the contrary. All else is speculation.

[RufusXS]

If all Pilots who had flight sim at home and obscure self-created FMS routes saved were investigated.. they'd be none of us left....

Are you suggesting that the captain having had a sim at home which had the same obscure destination as what really happened is coincidence?

[flightleader]

Many people read this forum because they are pilots. Pilots know bad things can happen in any flight. May be you are good or your time is not up yet. It is highly unethical to speculate and accuse the captain of any intention to harm the passengers and the plane.

If you are a pilot, I humbly ask to you to have a think at this..........you had an accident and passed on, leaving your family in grief and disbelief. They dig into this forum for answers just to read all these baseless accusations! Do you want that and why are you now doing it to other pilots families?

God bless all of you!

[Volume]

FL475 seems unlikely, but equally FL445 10nm south of Penang
The report clearly states that the altitude information from the primary radar does not match the capability of the aircraft (not only the absolute figures, but also the altitude changes), but is known to be very unreliable. It is simply not made for this, radar can detect direction and distance, the closer the plane is to the station the more reliably it can also determine altitude, but not at long ranges.

The report relatively often states, that details are not matching, that events can not be explained... It leaves a lot of room for speculation.

I think they have produced a sound document, there is not much more you can do with the available information.

[FullWings]

From the report:

It was also noted that, in the absence of autopilot or continuous manual control, an aircraft is very unlikely to maintain straight and level flight. Further, it is extremely unlikely for an aircraft to enter and maintain a turn and then return to straight and level flight for any significant period of time.

From the foregoing discussion it can be generally deduced that there is no evidence to suggest that a malfunction had caused the aircraft to divert from its filed flight plan route.

The analysis of the relevant aircraft systems taking into account the route followed by the aircraft and the height at which it flew, constrained by its performance and range capability, does not suggest a mechanical problem with the aircraft.

Yes, there will always be some element of uncertainty as there were no survivors and no FDRs recovered. However, when you have pretty much proven to yourself that the aircraft was deliberately flown to wherever it crashed, I’d have thought at least a suggestion of “unlawful interference” could be made, as opposed to:

In conclusion, the Team is unable to determine the real cause for the disappearance of MH370.

Which is a bit of a cop-out, IMHO.

[Wannabe Flyer]

Nicely said! My understanding is that every single cause appears to have a hole! The captain could have chosen a better place to supposedly commit suicide choosing an even larger depth at a similar distance - in the deepest ocean of the world.

Considering the aircraft has not been found & all searches have yielded no results it does seem whoever did this found the "Best place" to hide this aircraft. Now can you imagine if he has also figured a way to somewhat deceive the IMMERSAT data albeit it by 5 Degrees?

[arketip]

Are you suggesting that the captain having had a sim at home which had the same obscure destination as what really happened is coincidence?

How can the destination be obscure if all the information are there on the the sim?

[LadyL2013]

We can all speculate endlessly. A couple of things which I believe are, or at least could be, significant.
(1) The F/O was on his last training flight to type, and
(2) the opportunity existed for one pilot to lock the other out of the cockpit.

If either pilot left the cockpit and the other did lock the cockpit door it would have been a simple
matter for the lone pilot in the cockpit to don his oxy mask and depressurise the aircraft. Time
of useful consciousness, for those outside the cockpit without access to pressure breathing equipment,
would have been minimal leaving the handling pilot to disable the transponder and ACARS.
Of the two pilots it is reasonable to suspect the PIC would have the knowledge to do so. Why the
autopilot would have been disengaged, and for how long, is anyone's guess.

Whilst we may never find the answer my money would be on a deliberate act by one of the crew.

That's what my money is on too. I think the evidence points most clearly to that scenario.

[DaveReidUK]

Now can you imagine if he has also figured a way to somewhat deceive the IMMERSAT data albeit it by 5 Degrees?

No, since you asked.

And it's Inmarsat.

[birdspeed]

Come on everybody, let’s use Occam’s Razor on this—This simplest solution is probably correct. This was probably caused by a single point of failure. No need for convoluted conspiracy/crazy pilot suicide missions.

I suggest that could be the Crew Oxygen Bottle. Most Airliners have this vulnerability. It would cause massive electrical issues, decompression, and now from the latest report the autopilot is OFF, the aircraft was left meandering. It’s really not that difficult if you know how the avionics bay is constructed and how a disabled B777 once trimmed for cruise could fly on to fuel exhaustion.

[DaveReidUK]

Come on everybody, let’s use Occam’s Razor on this—This simplest solution is probably correct. This was probably caused by a single point of failure. No need for convoluted conspiracy/crazy pilot suicide missions.
At the risk of stating the obvious, a "crazy pilot suicide mission" is also, essentially, a single point of failure.

[Ian W]

If all Pilots who had flight sim at home and obscure self-created FMS routes saved were investigated.. they'd be none of us left....

If you were a professional pilot whose main flights were London to European destinations but you had a flight sim at home and it was set up with a mythical sea level airport at 54° 34' 21.7" N 13° 4' 13.9" W and subsequently an aircraft you are flying goes NORDO and flies into the North Atlantic West of Scotland and crashes near Rockall - then the flight sim information is significant circumstantial evidence that you were at least thinking of flying in that direction.

Perhaps you know someone who idly sets up pretend airports in the middle of oceans well out of the way of land? I can't say it's a practice that I have heard of. .

[Ian W]

The report clearly states that the altitude information from the primary radar does not match the capability of the aircraft (not only the absolute figures, but also the altitude changes), but is known to be very unreliable. It is simply not made for this, radar can detect direction and distance, the closer the plane is to the station the more reliably it can also determine altitude, but not at long ranges.

The report relatively often states, that details are not matching, that events can not be explained... It leaves a lot of room for speculation.

I think they have produced a sound document, there is not much more you can do with the available information.

The radar that provided the altitude information was apparently an Air Defence primary radar which does have height sensing capabilities which are normally accurate to within a few thousand feet - in the original thread there was considerable discussion on the AD system and [lack of] response to MH370 strange route and altitude

[FullWings]

I suggest that could be the Crew Oxygen Bottle. Most Airliners have this vulnerability. It would cause massive electrical issues, decompression, and now from the latest report the autopilot is OFF, the aircraft was left meandering. It’s really not that difficult if you know how the avionics bay is constructed and how a disabled B777 once trimmed for cruise could fly on to fuel exhaustion.
Having just read the report, it pretty much says the opposite, that there are no realistic (or likely) failure modes that would leave the aircraft flying in straight lines then making turns then flying in straight lines, etc. without pilot intervention of some kind. Same with altitudes.

There are so many incredibly improbable things that had to happen one after the other to make the aircraft follow the reported path on its own, that this can effectively be discounted. Alien abduction is probably orders of magnitude more likely.

We are not talking about an event that caused a hull loss shortly after otherwise things like oxygen, batteries on fire, decompression, etc. would be high on the list. We have an aircraft that flies on for 7hrs in a way that experts tell us requires a (live) human on the flight deck, at least for the first couple of hours.

If we want to talk Ockham’s Razor, then the simplest explanation is this was all deliberate action by at least one person (which they imply in the report). No repeated super-unlikely happenings required. Not the first time for something like this, either...

[Volume]

At the risk of stating the obvious...
There are obviously two persons on the flight deck, so it is not exactly a single point failure. Contact was lost immediately after some radio communicating showing that both were on the flight deck.
Not talking about some trained people aft of the cockpit with portable oxygen, tools, communication equipment, access to the electronic compartment and probably some clever ideas. So it is hard to do this as a "single point".

let’s use Occam’s Razor on this—This simplest solution is probably correct.
And the suicide theory is just too complex for this. Too many things to be considered. Too many details to think of and plan for.

The radar that provided the altitude information was apparently an Air Defence primary radar which does have height sensing capabilities which are normally accurate to within a few thousand feet
The radar station in question was obviously just a "simple" one. No doubt, the military also has some equipment which allows to locate aircraft quite accurately, but not in permanent use. And not in the middle of the jungle... This was a station to cover a large area with low precision. Just look at the track plots.
And if better data should exist, we will probably never see it, neither did the official investigators.

[JLWSanDiego]

I believe there had been some AD issues with windshields prior to this event

[MATELO]

There are obviously two persons on the flight deck, so it is not exactly a single point failure. Contact was lost immediately after some radio communicating showing that both were on the flight deck.
Not talking about some trained people aft of the cockpit with portable oxygen, tools, communication equipment, access to the electronic compartment and probably some clever ideas. So it is hard to do this as a "single point".


And the suicide theory is just too complex for this. Too many things to be considered. Too many details to think of and plan for.


The radar station in question was obviously just a "simple" one. No doubt, the military also has some equipment which allows to locate aircraft quite accurately, but not in permanent use. And not in the middle of the jungle... This was a station to cover a large area with low precision. Just look at the track plots.
And if better data should exist, we will probably never see it, neither did the official investigators.

1. Contact was not lost immediately. The last RT was at 01:19:30 & the position symbol of Flight 370 disappears from KL ACC radar, indicating the aircraft's transponder is no longer functioning at 01:21:13.

2. Suicide theory is the simplest. One person. One door. One Lock.

[Andy_S]

There are obviously two persons on the flight deck, so it is not exactly a single point failure.

Unless one of them chooses or is persuaded to leave.....

[flash8]

Unless one of them .... is persuaded to leave.....
Or both of them.

[RufusXS]

How can the destination be obscure if all the information are there on the the sim?
Because it's a massive area and an object that's minuscule in comparison. Slight deviations from an supposed "plan" would lead to a massive variance in final location.

The point is that if that area was in the sim, then that's a heck of a coincidence.

[capricorn23]

It's hard to believe that no "military eye" of the satellites costellations overhead has seen nothing in this highly strategic area which include Diego Garcia with all its air and sea weapons... An aircraft went lost in this environment and nobody tried to track a possibile danger to the air-sea base? Maybe no one is keen to show up its detective capabilities to the "competitors"...

[grizzled]

Re Capricorn23's comments...

It seems (or as we say in investigation speak, "it is likely") that if the intent was to end the flight in a place where it would be very difficult to find, then whoever flew the aircraft apparently considered the optimum route to achieve that end. Which could be one reason that the track after rounding Sumatra didn't (apparently) get closer than 1200 miles or 2000 kilometres to Diego Garcia. The particular track chosen after Sumatra (as per Inmarsat data) appears to be close to an ideal track to end in an isolated area of vast deep ocean, whilst always remaining more than 1000 miles from any land.

[Captivep]

Why do people believe that there satellites monitoring air traffic below them just in case a rogue aircraft suddenly darts off towards Diego Garcia - it's the stuff of movies, surely?

Similarly, why do people assume that Diego Garcia is bristling with anti-air assets? Why on earth would they bother?

[Cloudtopper]

Just read an article on La parisian French newspaper that they will investigate the accuracy of the inmarsat data.

maybe there is doubt after all ....

http://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/la-france-relance-l-enquete-sur-le-mh-370-05-08-2018-7844253.php

[CurtainTwitcher]

Some of us antipodeans need a little help with the translation, courtesy of google translate (https://translate.google.com.au/#auto/en/Tous%20les%20pays%20concernés%20par%20la%20disparition%20de% 20l’avion%20malaisien%20en%202014%20avec%20239%20personnes%2 0à%20bord%20ont%20renoncé.%20En%20France%2C%20la%20gendarmer ie%20de%20l’air%20poursuit%20ses%20investigations.%0AÀ%20ce% 20jour%2C%20la%20France%20reste%20le%20seul%20et%20dernier%2 0pays%20à%20tenter%20de%20comprendre%20comment%20le%20vol%20 MH%20370%20de%20la%20Malaysian%20Airlines%20a%20pu%20dispara ître%20le%208%20mars%202014.%20Il%20y%20avait%20à%20bord%20q uatre%20Français%20%3A%20Laurence%20Wattrelos%2C%20sa%20fill e%20Ambre%2014%20ans%2C%20son%20fils%20Hadrien%2017%20ans%2C %20et%20Yan%20la%20petite%20amie%20franco-chinoise%20de%20ce%20dernier.%20Ils%20rentraient%20de%20vaca nces%20de%20printemps%20en%20Malaisie.%20La%20présence%20de% 20victimes%20françaises%20autorise%20notre%20pays%20à%20mene r%20ses%20propres%20investigations.%20Tous%20les%20autres%20 pays%20concernés%20ont%20désormais%20renoncé.%0A%0AAujourd’h ui%2C%20c’est%20la%20section%20de%20recherches%20de%20la%20g endarmerie%20des%20transports%20aériens%20(SR-GTA)%20qui%20poursuit%20l’enquête%20à%20la%20demande%20de%20 la%20justice.%20Et%20sous%20un%20angle%20qui%20va%20permettr e%20de%20remettre%20tout%20à%20plat%2C%20selon%20nos%20infor mations.%0A%0AL’appareil%2C%20un%20Boeing%20777%2C%20rallian t%20Kuala-Lumpur%20(Malaisie)%20à%20Pékin%20(Chine)%20avec%20239%20per sonnes%20à%20bord%20n’a%20jamais%20été%20retrouvé.%20Et%20le s%20enquêtes%20de%20tous%20ordres%20venant%20des%20nombreux% 20pays%20concernés%20par%20cette%20tragédie%2C%20souvent%20l acunaires%20ou%20parcellaires%2C%20n’ont%20rien%20donné%20ju squ’à%20présent%2C%20alimentant%20toutes%20sortes%20de%20thé ories%20complotistes%20sans%20aucun%20élément%20certifié.%0A %0A%0ADes%20vérifications%20des%20données%20techniques%20tra nsmises%0ALa%20Malaisie%20a%20rendu%20récemment%20un%20rappo rt%20de%20449%20pages%20écartant%2C%20sans%20aucun%20élément %20de%20preuve%2C%20«%20l’avarie%20»%20ou%20«%20un%20acte%20 de%20folie%20»%20du%20commandant%20de%20bord.%20Ce%20rapport %20très%20imprécis%20et%20ambigu%20dit%20aussi%20«%20ne%20pa s%20exclure%20l’intervention%20d’une%20tierce%20partie%20»%2 C%20sans%20en%20préciser%20la%20nature%20réelle.%20Car%20rie n%20ne%20dit%20que%20le%20commandant%20de%20bord%20n’a%20pas %20programmé%20ce%20vol%20vers%20une%20opération%20suicidair e%20très%20sophistiquée.%20Ce%20qui%20avait%20déjà%20été%20u ne%20des%20hypothèses%20la%20première%20enquête%20américaine %20du%20FBI.%0A%0ALa%20gendarmerie%20des%20transports%20aéri ens%20(GTA)%20entend%20bien%20vérifier%20la%20véracité%20et% 20surtout%20l’authenticité%20de%20toutes%20les%20données%20t echniques%20transmises.%20Notamment%20fournies%20par%20la%20 société%20britannique%20Inmarsat%2C%20qui%20a%20réceptionné% 20les%20positions%20transmises%20par%20le%20777.%20Ces%20don nées%20sont-elles%20fiables%20%3F%20Certifiées%20%3F%20Les%20gendarmes%2 0veulent%20la%20source%20de%20ces%20données%20pour%20compren dre%20la%20trajectoire%20de%20cet%20appareil.%20Il%20n’est%2 0pas%20exclu%20qu’une%20commission%20rogatoire%20internation ale%20les%20autorise%20à%20récupérer%20à%20la%20rentrée%20le s%20données%20brutes%20transmises.%0A%0A-%0AUne%20seule%20certitude%20dans%20l’affaire%20du%20MH%2037 0%20%3A%20le%20premier%20virage%20effectué%20par%20l’avion%2 0est%20volontaire%2C%20alors%20qu’il%20se%20trouve%20au%20la rge%20de%20la%20Malaisie%20et%20du%20Vietnam%2C%20entre%20de ux%20contrôles%20aériens.%20Un%20virage%20à%20gauche%20qui%2 0déroute%20l’appareil%20vers%20la%20frontière%20sensible%20e ntre%20la%20Thaïlande%20et%20la%20Malaisie.%0A%0AL’appareil% 20passe%20ensuite%20au%20droit%20de%20l’aéroport%20internati onal%20de%20Kota%20Bahru%20où%20il%20aurait%20pu%20se%20pose r%20en%20cas%20d’avarie.%20Puis%20file%20vers%20l’océan%20In dien%20et%20passe%20aussi%20au-dessus%20de%20l’aéroport%20international%20de%20l’île%20de%2 0Penang.%20Là%20encore%20le%20MH%20370%20ne%20se%20pose%20pa s.%0A%0AUne%20dépressurisation%20non%20détectée%20%3F%0ALe%2 0777%20semble%20avoir%20subi%20une%20panne%20électrique%20ma jeure%20qui%20a%20généré%20dans%20le%20jargon%20«%20un%20log %20off%20»%20empêchant%20toute%20transmission%20pendant%20qu arante%20minutes.%20Sans%20doute%20une%20panne%20avec%20déga gement%20de%20fumée%20à%20bord.%0A%0ALe%20système%20de%20ven tilation%20a%20bien%20été%20actionné%2C%20mais%20un%20incide nt%20a%20peut-être%20endommagé%20le%20système%20de%20pressurisation.%20«%2 0Un%20symptôme%20caractéristique%20d’une%20dépressurisation% 20lente%20de%20l’appareil%20peut%20être%20passé%20inaperçu%2 0ou%20pas%20détecté%20par%20les%20pilotes%20car%20il%20s’agi rait%20peut-être%20d’un%20problème%20secondaire%20»%2C%20note%20Xavier%2 0Tytelman%2C%20ancien%20de%20l’Armée%20de%20l’air%20et%20con sultant%20aéronautique%20réputé.%0A%0ALa%20dépressurisation% 20lente%20entraîne%20la%20perte%20de%20l’oxygénation%20de%20 la%20cabine%20et%20équipage%20et%20passagers%20sombrent%20da ns%20le%20coma%20tandis%20que%20l’avion%20continue%20à%20vol er%20vers%20une%20chute%20fatale.%20Un%20tel%20incident%20s’ était%20produit%20en%20Grèce%20le%2014%20août%202005.%20Suit e%20à%20une%20dépressurisation%20non%20détectée%20du%20cockp it%2C%20les%20pilotes%20s’étaient%20évanouis%20et%20l’avion% 2C%20en%20panne%20de%20carburant%2C%20s’était%20écrasé%2C%20 faisant%20121%20morts.%0A%0ALIRE%20AUSSI%20>Disparition%20du%20vol%20MH%20370%20%3A%20«Cette%20enquête%2 0nous%20cache%20des%20choses»%0A%0A%0AFaits%20diversMalaysia %20AirlinesMH%20370MH370):

All countries concerned by the disappearance of the Malaysian aircraft in 2014 with 239 people aboard have given up. In France, the air gendarmerie continues its investigations.
To date, France remains the only country to try to understand how the Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370 was able to disappear on March 8, 2014. There were four Frenchmen aboard: Laurence Wattrelos, her 14-year-old daughter Amber, his 17-year-old son Hadrien, and Yan the French-Chinese girlfriend of the latter. They were coming back from spring break in Malaysia. The presence of French victims allows our country to conduct its own investigations. All other countries concerned have now renounced.

Today, it is the research section of the Gendarmerie Air Transport (SR-GTA) that continues the investigation at the request of justice. And at an angle that will allow to put everything flat, according to our information.

The aircraft, a Boeing 777, rallying Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) to Beijing (China) with 239 people on board was never found. And investigations of all kinds from the many countries involved in this tragedy, often incomplete or fragmented, have not given anything so far, fueling all kinds of conspiracy theories without any certified element.


Verifications of the technical data transmitted
Malaysia has recently issued a 449-page report dismissing, without any evidence, the "damage" or "act of madness" of the captain. This very imprecise and ambiguous report also says "do not exclude the intervention of a third party", without specifying its real nature. Because nothing says that the captain did not schedule this flight to a very sophisticated suicidal operation. Which had already been one of the assumptions the first US FBI investigation.

The gendarmerie of air transport (GTA) intends to verify the veracity and especially the authenticity of all the technical data transmitted. Notably provided by the British company Inmarsat, which has received the positions transmitted by the 777. These data are reliable? Certified? The gendarmes want the source of this data to understand the trajectory of this device. It is not excluded that an international rogatory commission authorizes them to recover the raw data transmitted at the beginning of the year.

-
One certainty in the case of the MH 370: the first turn made by the aircraft is voluntary, while it is off the coast of Malaysia and Vietnam, between two air traffic controls. A left turn that deflects the aircraft towards the sensitive border between Thailand and Malaysia.

The aircraft then passes to the right of Kota Bahru International Airport where it could have landed in case of damage. Then drive to the Indian Ocean and also pass over Penang Island International Airport. Here again the MH 370 does not arise.

Undetected depressurization?
The 777 seems to have suffered a major power failure that generated in the jargon "a log off" preventing transmission for forty minutes. No doubt a breakdown with smoke on board.

The ventilation system has been activated, but an incident may have damaged the pressurization system. "A typical symptom of a slow depressurization of the aircraft may have gone unnoticed or undetected by the pilots as it may be a secondary problem," said Xavier Tytelman, a former Army veteran. air and reputed aeronautical consultant.

The slow depressurization leads to the loss of oxygenation in the cabin and crew and passengers sink into coma as the plane continues to fly towards a fatal crash. Such an incident occurred in Greece on August 14, 2005. Following an undetected depressurization of the cockpit, the pilots had fainted and the plane ran out of fuel, killing 121 people.

READ ALSO> Disappearance of Flight MH 370: "This investigation hides things from us"


FactsMalaysia AirlinesMH 370MH370

[Sailvi767]

A slow depressurization going unnoticed would require a failure of both the O2 auto canin mask extension and the cabin altitude warning horn. It also would not explain the sequence of turns relative to the last communications with ATC. Someone was flying the plane.

[.Scott]

I'm kind of glad the French decided to continue to pursue this.
But I believe more information is needed before any reasonable conclusions can be drawn - especially about the guilt or innocence of the crew..
If they don't send Ocean Infinity back out there, I don't know where they're going to get that additional data.

[Titania]

Couldn't the strange trajectory be explained by damaged, slowly hypoxic, brains trying to find a solution but unable to exercise sufficient logic to save the plane until, finally, at the last turn, coma overcomes the pilots?

[compressor stall]

Or a la Helios, a FA on O2 Scott bottle. For me this has been the least implausible theory.

[Cloudtopper]

Unfortunately at this juncture even if they find the jet the CVR will hold zero relevant data. 120 min of recording on the triple .
That’s if we consider both pilots incapacitated.. so effectively last few hours of flight nothing would be heard on the CVR.

IF we considered a dire electrical problem could the pings be actually leading us the wrong way. The French may be onto something here.....


D-FDR should give vital info ..

[booke23]

IF we considered a dire electrical problem could the pings be actually leading us the wrong way. The French may be onto something here.....

I'm not so sure.......although there's no harm in checking the data again.

The washed up wreckage corroborates the Inmarsat data.

[Ian W]

Couldn't the strange trajectory be explained by damaged, slowly hypoxic, brains trying to find a solution but unable to exercise sufficient logic to save the plane until, finally, at the last turn, coma overcomes the pilots?

No it doesn't work like that.
Useful consciousness is around 90 - 120 seconds at that level. Anyone not on emergency oxygen would have been comatose after the turnback.

It does not explain the loss of those electrical systems that broadcast the position of the aircraft but not others that do not. The only radiating system on the aircraft that stayed on was the SATCOM that most pilots don't realize is continually talking to the INMARSAT satellite, and the one that most pilots would have difficultly knowing how to switch it off. Almost nobody realized that the corrections for doppler shift for the communications channel could be used to identify a 'range ring' and possible maneuver of the aircraft. Only the INMARSAT team realized that. It may be worth checking their maths - again - but that's been done ad infinitum.

The fact remains that the aircraft flew into the Southern Indian Ocean coincidentally :rolleyes: to a point close to where the captain had been practicing using his home flight simulator doing landings on sea level airports where there is no land. We know the aircraft entered the water around that position as bits of the aircraft have washed up in Madagascar and coasts around there at a time that would match with being carried by the ocean currents and with barnacles of the right age for that length of immersion in sea water and of the right type for the likely location +/- 500nm.

What we do not know for sure is why - it may not have been for its cargo of mangosteens.

[flash8]

most pilots would have difficultly knowing how to switch it off.

A little research:

SDU (SATCOM) is powered by Left AC Bus
Other systems powered by this bus are not documented (BDL Bus Distribution List not available for 777) as far as I can see... that is if you lose it that's when you may find out (some items not EICAS messaged on fault)
You can piece together from Maintenance manuals but not in one place.

E/E bay access likely needed for CB, then straightforward, 3 CB's.
Looking at the docs access to the SDU via E11 rack could be achieved in the cabin also (not sure about this as I don't know how easy it would be to access).
Disabling from the Cockpit... unlikely.

Disclaimer: I'm not an Engineer.

[birdspeed]

Ian w, I believe our current thinking is that after IGARI the satcom was off also, and only powered up again at 1825z, about an hour later. I think a massive electrical failure, mainly to the left side of the Avionics bay can explain most of these failures. The satcom is also one of the systems that is loadshed when only on backup power!

[flatfootsam]

It’s the judiciary not the BEA that is contining this aspect ofnthe investigation, curtosy of the French Napoleonic law Farrago..leap back to the Germanwings accident to see how that pans out.

Disputing the veracity of the evidence is hardly conducive.