Reuters article about pilot shortage

[FalseGS]

Global Pilot Shortage (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata-pilots-analysis/airlines-struggle-with-global-pilot-shortage-idUSKCN1J20XK)

[RAT 5]

IATA estimates airline traffic will nearly double during that period, so companies like Canadian training group CAE Inc (CAE.TO (https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=CAE.TO)) and L3 Technologies (LLL.N (https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=LLL.N)) are building new flight simulators to cash in on training demand.

Yet as pressures from pilot groups seek a rise in T's & C's for line pilots, and with some success, the lonely often freelance SFI at these training centres has seen a reduction in income over the past few years. They have no bargaining power and are often retried or part-time line pilots earning pocket money. The full-time SFI, perhaps without a medical, has been screwed to the floor. They are one solution to the shortage, but reap small rewards for their efforts.

[Piltdown Man]

There is no real shortage of pilots, just a shortage of victims. Only when airlines squeal that the only way to ensure their very existence is to have a properly funded ab-initio schemes will I believe their is a real shortage. Until then, I hope unions screw the very last drop of essence, plus interest, they screwed out of us over the past 15 years or so. It should cost billions, of not we have been screwed; again!

PM

[tsgas]

There is no real shortage of pilots, just a shortage of victims. Only when airlines squeal that the only way to ensure their very existence is to have a properly funded ab-initio schemes will I believe their is a real shortage. Until then, I hope unions screw the very last drop of essence, plus interest, they screwed out of us over the past 15 years or so. It should cost billions, of not we have been screwed; again!

PM
There is a shortage of full fare paying pax. Airline pilots have been subsidizing low fares for way too long. It's time that an airline ticket was priced higher than a seat on a Greyhound bus.

[krismiler]

There is no real shortage of pilots, just a shortage of victims. Only when airlines squeal that the only way to ensure their very existence is to have a properly funded ab-initio schemes will I believe their is a real shortage. Until then, I hope unions screw the very last drop of essence, plus interest, they screwed out of us over the past 15 years or so. It should cost billions, of not we have been screwed; again!

Amen to that, never a truer word spoken. Employers have been bending us over during previous surpluses, now the boot is on the other foot. It’s not just the last 15 years either, we’ve been getting screwed long before that.

[Father Dick Byrne]

There is truly a shortage of pilots of the calibre I would like at the front of my plane. Quality, as well as quantity, is terribly lacking.

[ShotOne]

Funny how airlines can come up with billions $$ for shiny new jets while claiming that tens or hundreds of thousands to pay or train pilots is "unaffordable"

[krismiler]

Name an established airline with good terms and conditions, which has an ab initio training program in place and is experiencing a shortage of Pilots.

Even without a cadet program, the top tier can still crew their aircraft. There may be bottle necks in training and the net may need to be cast a bit wider with reduced minimums but they can still get by.

Shortages are primarily with:

Rapidly expanding airlines in China and Asia whose growth has outpaced the normal lead time from off the street to experienced Captain.

Previously top expat employers such as Emirates and Cathay who let their terms and conditions slide. Now a job back home is a more attractive option.

Second level airlines such as Ryanair who screwed their Pilots into the ground during previous surpluses.

Regional and general aviation level jobs which have traditionally paid poorly and simply been regarded as a steppingstone to better things. Their Pilots have moved up the food chain and haven’t been replaced.

[Timmy Tomkins]

Twas ever thus I fear. The see-saw has been a decades long feature of the industry. However, the low cost boom is responsible for accentuating the problem as airlines have cut costs and treated pilots badly, so no surprise that many vote with their feet.

[Father Dick Byrne]

Regional and general aviation level jobs which have traditionally paid poorly and simply been regarded as a steppingstone to better things. Their Pilots have moved up the food chain and haven’t been replaced.

There’s a deal of truth in the rest of your post, but I must take issue with the words above. Many GA pilots, and some regional of my acquaintance, are quite happy where they are, with work/life balance, their choice of home and base, pleasant colleagues, etc. Not everyone wants a 380 (God forbid) nor even a 737.

Contentment has no price, but inestimable value.

[BluSdUp]

Father DB
You speak so many true words.
Up until recently I have had some admiration for most FOs handling the 737-800 quite well and coping with most issues good. Even with only 18 months of basic training and then bang into the RH seat at M.78!
Now lately not so much.
I can quote a friend of mine on a 10 aircraft base uttering his frustration after a particularly interesting week on: " Is there ANY competent FOs on this base!!??"
And he is not picky, but he demands that they show some interest!

I tend to agree with him, the standard is sliding rapidly and some basics are slowly eroded by FMS and iPads.
The few linetrainers that are left that I talk with are all agreeing that the standard of the entry Fo has gone down lately.
So, there is a lack of qualified , competent candidates .

[TDK mk2]

Hear hear Dick Byrne,

I have recently traded in my not so shiny regional jet in which I toured relentlessly for a lumbering turboprop which I cycle to and return home from usually on the same day. I have a laugh with my colleagues and whilst inexperienced I find them to be generally well trained and motivated. I sometimes quip that if I ever find myself in a Boeing or Airbus I will have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way. That gets some funny looks.

[Rated De]

Reduction of labour unit cost as it relates to pilots is cult like obsession.
Using fair means or foul IR 'practitioners' have patted themselves on the back for decades as that unit cost reduced.

Reversion to mean will take some adjustment for them having built whole careers destroying yours, but sadly demographics are working against any nefarious plan they conjure!

[Brat]

During my entire 40 year career there were always headlines bleating about shortages of pilots. True I was never out work but then there was never really any shortages either.

[BizJetJock]

I know it wasn't recent, but there have definitely been shortages in the past. I recall in the late 80s being CFI of a small flying school and being cold called by the chief pilot of Brittania to ask if I knew of anyone interested in being sponsored for their CPL/IR. If that doesn't show a shortage then I don't know what does!

[Googlebug]

Single pilot ops and eventually pilotless aircraft will sort the problem out for airlines. It’s 10s of years away at best.

[Googlebug]

Did you watch the 2 space x rockets simultaneously land a few months back.
Futerism, the speed technology is advancing, self learning computers, AI, and quantum computing will make it possible.
Boeing are working on pilotless and Airbus are fairly far along with single pilot ops. The role of a pilot is going to change.
I ageee at the moment it seems impossible. And if it’s economically viable, the cost saving of crew vs having to carry more fuel and increased possibility of diversion is a possible distractor.
But somewhere in the world in the next 30-50 years someone’s going to have a crack at it.

Personally i I think single pilot ops are far more likely.

[4EvahLearning]

There is a shortage of full fare paying pax. Airline pilots have been subsidizing low fares for way too long. It's time that an airline ticket was priced higher than a seat on a Greyhound bus.

Bring it on. This will reduce the number of PAX significantly, therefore reducing the number of pilots required and solve the issue in no time.

[act700]

I hate to say it but I'm with googlebug on this...single pilot ops is just around the corner, freighters first (that'll be the Beta test).

ALPA is howling up a storm in the US about it already, saying no way Jose. But they said the same thing about the flight engineer!!

[tsgas]

Bring it on. This will reduce the number of PAX significantly, therefore reducing the number of pilots required and solve the issue in no time.
That's why most of the US air carriers went bankrupt because of selling their product below their cost. Only in socialist countries can airlines continue in business with constant loses, year after year. FYI every time an airline goes under, pilots along with their fellow employees, loose their jobs.

[pax britanica]

It is not just in Socialist countries that the state or system pays huge part in propping up airlines
The ME three could come form any less Socialist country for a start and the get out of jail free at everyone elses expense card called Chapter 11 in the USA affords companies and often airlines a better deal than vast amiounts of subsidies by being able to walk away from all the bad decisions made and debts built up.

[Father Dick Byrne]

I hate to say it but I'm with googlebug on this...single pilot ops is just around the corner, freighters first (that'll be the Beta test).


So as if by magic, it’ll make financial sense to replace super-cheap, old, sometimes tired, airframes, with brand new pilotless ones, to fly low utilisation ops in the dead of night?

The landscape is changing, but numbers are still numbers, and there’s no way it makes sense to go pilotless in the vast majority of freight operations.

The pilot community has been delinquent. It has failed to fly a flag for the good that pilots do every day, to make operations reliable, economical, and timely. It has relied on appallingly outdated unions whose leaders seldom have any connection to reality. As pilots, we’re reaping the rewards of years of poor judgement and socio-economic hysteresis.

(I must mention Sully, who has done a sterling job where so many have failed. If more of us had his foresight and comprehension of the modern world, we might not be so deep down the hole we now occupy).

[ethicalconundrum]

I will opine that single pilot ops for any comm air ops has to be viewed in terms of system redundancy. Which in the grand scheme of things means that a single pilot operation must be able to be completed from in-flight catastrophic failure of the human(death, disability), to emergency notification, selection of alternate, change the FMS, enable the change, and execute the descent and landing safely.

What no one has thought to discuss yet, and where I see it going is the ground-slaved mode. Where a single or multiple ground drone pilot(operator?) monitors 10-20-30? single pilot ops from the ground. There is some form of 'heartbeat' checking between the on-board single pilot and the automated ground check station. Should a routine comm fault occur, a retry would happen, and in the event the retry comm failed, the ground/drone operator/pilot would intercede and take control from there, conducting the emer as required and bringing the meatsacks(or cargo initially) to ground safely. The flying public is somewhat conditioned to this already as we know drones operate around the world pilot-less. How this will translate to the majors is a question for the next generation of Gameboy enmeshed goobers.

I think this is the interim of the game, and the drone operator/pilots will be predominantly button-pushing video-game driving scabs. No where near the training(and pay) of a front line pilot.

YMMV, object in mirror, contents have settled, and may cause anal leakage.

[tsgas]

It is not just in Socialist countries that the state or system pays huge part in propping up airlines
The ME three could come form any less Socialist country for a start and the get out of jail free at everyone elses expense card called Chapter 11 in the USA affords companies and often airlines a better deal than vast amiounts of subsidies by being able to walk away from all the bad decisions made and debts built up.
If the ME carriers are backed and subsidized by the government, than that is not a capitalist business model.

[Googlebug]

Iv heard the issue right now with ground slaved systems is the availability of secured bandwidth. But who knows it may be cost effective in the future to send up your own secure sat com system.

[VinRouge]

Iv heard the issue right now with ground slaved systems is the availability of secured bandwidth. But who knows it may be cost effective in the future to send up your own secure sat com system.

SpaceX are looking into it, global very high bandwidth internet.

If anyone thinks AI and neural networks will be the answer in the future, can someone please explain how they think a system that is learning and adapting continuously will meet the regulatory requirement for certification? Every new scenario effectively modifies the software. Not exactly certifiable. With these systems the law of unintended consequences comes into play even for mature systems (skynet anyone? :8)

Can see single pilot ops though at some stage, or reduction to two pilots for augmented crew operations in the future, even perhaps no one in either seat for the cruise. Will take a significant step forward to move to single pilot ops due to the human factor. Group decision making and initiative cannot be replicated for a start. And I'd like to see an automated system respond to the literally billions of combinations of certified responses to multiple unrelated emergencies, similar to the ua232 crash years ago and the quantas a380 emergency. Unless you are content to accept that all passengers can be written off in such an event. I really don't think fare going passengers will be happy for this additional risk on the basis of a 5% cut in fare for a flight.

[Googlebug]

We see it as that, but accountants and bosses see spreadsheets.
A huge issue with pilotless will be blame. I can’t see Airbus/Boeing wanting to take the rap for every accident. At the moment there’s an easy out. Us.