MH370 opinion ATSB

[A0283]

Australian investigators have rejected claims that the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was deliberately brought down by the pilot.
Recent speculation that the jet was the subject of a "controlled ditching" into the sea was dismissed on Tuesday May 22nd 2018 by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.
The bureau maintains that the pilot was unconscious during the final moments.
..
The ATSB wants new evidence before reactivating the investigation.

Problem with that is that the Malaysian/ATSB investigation appears to have focussed on a single line of investigation. The ATSB, as far as I know, has never presented for example a longlist of possible scenarios, this long list mapped on a shortlist with most probable scenarios, and say a prime list with 2-3 scenarios. This is what you expect in the special case that MH370 is. If you dont know, open up.

One scenario that i have heard about, and was sent to the ATSB, already pointed to the Southern Indian Ocean when the search was still doing the Andaman-Perth route. The ATSB was asked to publish more data to better test the validity of the scenario. The ATSB dont tell us if this or other such scenarios have been investigated and in which list they put them or rejected them. So are they old or new evidence or evidence at all?

[Contact Approach]

Who knows... why speculate? What's the point?

[DaveReidUK]

Who knows... why speculate? What's the point?

Because when nobody knows, speculation is all you're left with. :O

[Dee Vee]

Australian investigators have rejected claims that the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was deliberately brought down by the pilot.
Recent speculation that the jet was the subject of a "controlled ditching" into the sea was dismissed on Tuesday May 22nd 2018 by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.
The bureau maintains that the pilot was unconscious during the final moments.
..
The ATSB wants new evidence before reactivating the investigation.

Maybe the ATSB can explain what evidence they have that the pilot was unconscious??

Seems they have made up their minds, without any evidence, and refuse to listen to anything else... Very odd...

[Coochycool]

And since the only tangible evidence to materialise to date is a flaperon and flap section, which might indicate preference to a controlled ditching scenario, it does indeed seem odd and to the contrary of the few known facts.

If the objective was to hide the aircraft then why would a rogue pilot not reasonably pursue the same strategy to the end ie. attempt to keep the aircraft as intact as possible without a tell-tale debris field.

Simulator runs have indicated that a controlled glide upon flame out have reached distances circa 90 miles which would place the aircraft well outside any previous search zone. As one likely scenario, it might help explain why they havent found it.

[Long Haul]

The evidence of a very high rate of descent during the last moments of the flight comes from the sateliite data received from Inmarsat. Based on this data, searchers were confident that the crash site was within 25 nm of the so-called “7th arc.” The fact that this area has been searched extensively and nothing found has led some to suggest that the aircraft somehow recovered from this high rate of descent, amd then glided for awhile before finally crashing. Really the only evidence that supports that conclusion is the lack of success in finding more, larger pieces of debris.

[birdspeed]

The ‘60 minute’ panel were completely wrong in their conclusions. Foley at the ATSB is correct. Evidence points to an out of control impact with the sea....The evidence is 1/ satellite data from Inmarsat shows extreme high rate of descent. 2/ Approx 30 pieces of debris, many from the interior show the aircraft shattered on impact.3/ The Flap and Flaperon could be damaged by ‘flutter’ and not sea surface contact. They probably detached before sea impact and are probably the largest pieces of MH370 we will find.

[hoss183]

Saying that the loss was not a pilot suicide based solely on the evidence that the descent was uncontrolled, is entirely fallacious.
How do they account for the early turns and deliberate disabling of the transponder?
So the pilot set a course and rode it down, possibly even depressurizing the cabin.
It does not mean it was not deliberate.

[Jay Arr]

........deliberate disabling of the transponder?

It is NOT known, NOT factual, that the transponder was deliberately disabled.

What IS known is that the transponder signal ceased. There is a huge difference.

That cessation could have been as a result of someone deliberately switching it off OR as a consequence of electrical malfunction/interruption.

Please: stop perpetuating conjecture as fact. Better still, stop relying on the media for facts, or on these various opinion pieces by blokes trying to make a name for themselves. I know the Aussie lead investigator personally and know what the ATSB line of thinking was. I have been in the ATSB conference room in Canberra looking at the plotting chart and all the evidence to date. I have seen some of the bits of the aircraft they have recovered.

I know for "a fact" that much of what has been published in the media is conjecture and speculation, as opposed to reasoning based on actual evidence.

[Seabreeze]

So Jay Arr,

Let us suppose that we take your view that the ATSB reasoning is excellent and beyond criticism because you have been in the ATSB conference room! (very impressive). Why, with then did the Seabed Constructor with its state of the art AUV's find nothing? Self evidently because the search was in the wrong place. Why? because some of the ATSB assumptions were/are incorrect, and the one that stands out to me as being crucial is the one that assumed that the aircraft descended vertically/uncontrollably from its last estimated cruise position. If the PF of MH370 had in fact deliberately flown the aircraft west and over the Malaysian border to create a scenario such as this, then why would he have allowed himself to become incapacitated prior to observing his chosen outcome?

Throughout this whole tragic set of searches, the ATSB (as well as the Malaysian counterpart) have been reluctant to let data into the public domain, where some of the world's extremely knowledgable and capable scientists, engineers and aviators with a combined expertise far exceeding that which the ATSB has, might have made effective contributions to the analyses, and at a much earlier stage.

Seabreeze

[FullWings]

As a 777 type rated pilot, I am pretty much 100% sure that the known flightpath after the loss of radio/SSR contact required a) someone still alive manipulating the AFDS/FMC and/or b) someone to have programmed a route totally different to the original flight plan prior to the loss of contact. Both are deliberate acts incompatible with the best interests of those on board. Make of that what you will.

For the aircraft to have followed the route it did, as opposed to what it was meant to, without any human intervention, would take so many extremely unlikely events in a continuous chain that the combined probability ends up so vanishingly small it can be effectively discounted.

[portmanteau]

Why would a pilot wait for 7 hours before ending it all? More likely surely to choose to ditch or go straight in at an earlier time when there was still fuel on board? The 7th arc is a fact, some of the other inputs establishing the impact point are plausible but not facts. If aircraft is not found in latest search it could be because its there but was not seen by Seabed Constructor. Unlikely Ocean Infinity gave a guarantee.
Fuel load would not have allowed aircraft to go further south so search 7th arc northward until it crosses Sumatran coast if necessary. It was airborne for 7 hours but that doesn't mean the last 6 were in a straight line....

[DaveReidUK]

Why would a pilot wait for 7 hours before ending it all? More likely surely to choose to ditch or go straight in at an earlier time when there was still fuel on board?

Predicting the behaviour of a suicidal person (if that was the case here) is notoriously difficult.

Do you have any special expertise in that area to support your conjecture?

[gearlever]

Why would a pilot wait for 7 hours before ending it all? More likely surely to choose to ditch or go straight in at an earlier time when there was still fuel on board?

Suicide is forbidden in Islam... face keeping, eh?

[birdspeed]

FullWings, I’m also a 777 rated pilot, but I just see a random route meandering back across the Peninsula. There is a mechanical failure that can cause decompression and render the pilots hypoxic in seconds.

Seabreeze, The only fault of the ATSB was to wrongly assume the flight flew on autopilot in a straight line when out of radar range.

[hoss183]

I just see a random route meandering back across the Peninsula.

If you look at the analysis, the route follows pretty closely FIR boundaries, thats not random.
He (whichever it was) was looking for a way out of radar coverage, and to lose the plane. The supposition is that without evidence, he could save some face, claim the insurance etc.
e.g. link

[hoss183]

It was airborne for 7 hours but that doesn't mean the last 6 were in a straight line....
Yes it does, because we have the Inmarsat data. What we dont know is the position after the last ping and before impact.
Really people, go and read the basic facts before muddying the waters any more.

[Long Haul]

Saying that the loss was not a pilot suicide based solely on the evidence that the descent was uncontrolled, is entirely fallacious.
How do they account for the early turns and deliberate disabling of the transponder?
So the pilot set a course and rode it down, possibly even depressurizing the cabin.
It does not mean it was not deliberate.

I don’t think that the ATSB are saying that the loss wasn’t pilot suicide, hoss, they are saying simply that it wasn’t under pilot control during the last moments before it crashed. This matters because it determines the search area.

[hoss183]

I don’t think that the ATSB are saying that the loss wasn’t pilot suicide, hoss, they are saying simply that it wasn’t under pilot control during the last moments before it crashed. This matters because it determines the search area.

Yes you may be right, but the headlines from the press (as linked above) and some 'friends' of the ATSB have taken it to say that.

[Lonewolf_50]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/malaysian-minister-mh370-search-to-end-next-week/ar-AAxFTfF?ocid=spartandhp
They'll stop looking at the end of this month. I have serious doubts as to whether anyone else will jump on the "find or no fee" offering. The problem with theories and hypotheses is that it's a good sized puzzle, and there are a goodly number of pieces missing from the box. All pictures are incomplete.

[hoss183]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/malaysian-minister-mh370-search-to-end-next-week/ar-AAxFTfF?ocid=spartandhp
They'll stop looking at the end of this month. I have serious doubts as to whether anyone else will jump on the "find or no fee" offering. The problem with theories and hypotheses is that it's a good sized puzzle, and there are a goodly number of pieces missing from the box. All pictures are incomplete.

Yes the full picture and the proof is incomplete, but if you look at it holistically and the facts we know, accounting for human nature - the conclusion is pretty clear.

[ShotOne]

"Deliberate disabling of transponder". :total speculation. "Set a course and rode it down" :not even speculation-there's not a shred of evidence to support that.

"The conclusion is pretty clear..". Not it isn't. The fact is we don't know. It's only "clear" if you substitute speculation for fact and make a join-the-dots with five dots into the Mona Lisa

[Lonewolf_50]

ShotOne, the course change to the west appears from the evidence to have been timed a bit too conviently with the non check in with Viet Nam ATC and transponder signal lost. The posted track points to human agency. Given how tightly the Malaysian government held on to various bits of information, the lack of clarity seems to have been amplified for political reasons.

[birdspeed]

Hoss183, that route you posted was dated just 1 week after the aircraft went missing. It is not the officially recognised route. In fact, the latest civilian radar tracks seem to show a meandering path, perhaps with the aircraft flying phugoids—- it was not being controlled by anyone!

[Chronus]

Suicide is forbidden in Islam... face keeping, eh?

Not quite correct. There are certain extenuating circumstances when it is permitted. Death by flying aircraft into buildings and exploding apparel are some examples. This therefore means, motive is paramount in pursuing a hypothesis of this being down to the pilot. Very much a case of "what on earth could have possessed him".

[KiloB]

If the aircraft did spike-in after fuel exhaustion, would there be any significant wreckage to find? Or is the very expensive search looking for two engines at the bottom of an ocean?

[MG23]

Or is the very expensive search looking for two engines at the bottom of an ocean?

As I understand it, the search is essentially looking for the engines and a debris field. Given the amount of junk they've found, I don't seem much of a reason to believe they couldn't spot that if they're searching the correct area.

[MG23]

BTW, they're apparently now searching the long-awaited area where the flightpath to McMurdo crosses the sound from the underwater acoustic event an hour after the crash, and the 7th arc.

It may be a coincidence, but it would be a pretty odd one. Fingers crossed they'll have it by the end of the week.

[.Scott]

(responding to whether the last 6 hours of flight were "straight"). Yes it does, because we have the Inmarsat data. What we dont know is the position after the last ping and before impact.
Really people, go and read the basic facts before muddying the waters any more.The Inmarsat data is very suggestive of a straight line. And, given certain reasonable assumptions, denotes travel to the South or Southwest.
The Inmarsat data is not so precise that you could conclude that the flight path was straight. You have to include other considerations (such as what good would minor turns be in the middle of nowhere) to reach the presumption that the flight was straight.

[.Scott]

As I understand it, the search is essentially looking for the engines and a debris field. Given the amount of junk they've found, I don't seem much of a reason to believe they couldn't spot that if they're searching the correct area.I agree. Given what both searches have turned up - and especially this recent one (Ocean Infinity) the two engines should be no problem for them even if there is nothing else.

[.Scott]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/malaysian-minister-mh370-search-to-end-next-week/ar-AAxFTfF?ocid=spartandhp
They'll stop looking at the end of this month. I have serious doubts as to whether anyone else will jump on the "find or no fee" offering. The problem with theories and hypotheses is that it's a good sized puzzle, and there are a goodly number of pieces missing from the box. All pictures are incomplete.
What will stop them at the end of this month is the Winter sea conditions. Ocean Infinity has already added a section of seabed to their search area - apparently for no other reason than they have the time before the Winter closes in.
BTW: The weekly report on the search activity was due out yesterday. As of a few minutes ago, it still hadn't been released. This happened a couple of weeks ago as well - it was about two days late then.

[Ivana Kransky]

A quick look at marinetraffic.com shows a surprising number of vessels in and around the search area today.
I dont know about march 2014 but surely with that many ships crisscrossing the general area something must have been seen in the water in the days afterwards ? Its almost implausable that NO seafarer on any of the vessels in that remote area of ocean noticed the rumble of an overflying aircraft. Someone mentioned earlier that an unknown vessel was seen to track at speed to a point in the search area and then leave, i wonder why no mention has been made of that ?
Just reading the old updates on the search site gives me the impression of a sanitised and very politically correct/ diplomatically appropriate platter of generalised morsels of information.
if we ever do find it , it better not be where the hardys and vance’s say it could be.....the dolans and foleys would surely be forced into a political career or Even a position in the ABC....the shame !

[Xeptu]

"deliberately disabling the transponder"

It probably was deliberate but not intentionally deliberate. I had an emergency a few years back, which actually turned out to be two mutually exclusive events that came together at the same time which caused us "the entire crew" that we had a fuel leak. Without getting into the event, my first officer not only selected standby on the transponder prior to setting 7700 he didn't switch it back on either. I only noticed because the TCAS was off. A case of unintentional but deliberately disabled. How many of us in the heat of the moment would forget you dont need to select standby when changing codes.

[wiggy]

"deliberately disabling the transponder"

How many of us in the heat of the moment would forget you dont need to select standby when changing codes.

I guess that depends on the length of time an individual has been using the equipment in question...I suspect for many here the reflex/ conditioning/muscle memory involved with selecting standby for a code change has long gone.

[hoss183]

"deliberately disabling the transponder"

It probably was deliberate but not intentionally deliberate. I had an emergency a few years back, which actually turned out to be two mutually exclusive events that came together at the same time which caused us "the entire crew" that we had a fuel leak. Without getting into the event, my first officer not only selected standby on the transponder prior to setting 7700 he didn't switch it back on either. I only noticed because the TCAS was off. A case of unintentional but deliberately disabled. How many of us in the heat of the moment would forget you dont need to select standby when changing codes.
No, it was not just put into standby. One of the reports mentioned that the mode it was put into was not a normal one, and would have taken some knowledge and several steps to achieve.

[.Scott]

The weekly Malaysian Search report is out for the week ending Sunday, May 20.
Ocean Infinity has completed 8,000 sqKm of Site 4. Site 4 is planned as the fourth and final site to be search this season (or perhaps at all). It is roughly 20,000 sqKm in area.
At the rate they are going, they won't quite complete Site 4 by the end on this reporting period (May 27).

The report states: "Weather and sea conditions are forecasted to be moderate for the week ahead, however it is not expected to disrupt the search operations."

[ShotOne]

As some here have reached conclusions based on aircraft track it's worth examining the course depicted at post#16. It depicts ruler-straight lines with two turns through around 130 degrees at a point in space. It's simply not possible to turn an airliner that sharply.

[portmanteau]

I note , today, that Peter Foley MH370 Search Programme Director in an Estimates Hearing in the Australian Parliament on 22nd May said " There's no earthly reason why someone in control of an aircraft would exhaust its fuel and then attempt to glide it when they have the option of ditching."

[CONSO]

As some here have reached conclusions based on aircraft track it's worth examining the course depicted at post#16. It depicts ruler-straight lines with two turns through around 130 degrees at a point in space. It's simply not possible to turn an airliner that sharply.

Consider the scale of the map -

[ShotOne]

Yes, conso at that scale the image is not an accurate depiction of the aircraft course. Secondly, why turn back anyway? With the empty South China Sea and vastness of the Pacific Ocean ahead and almost out of radar cover, why turn back to overfly a densely populated peninsula where the aircraft was sure to be tracked on radar? I don’t claim to know the cause but, surely this turn weighs against criminal intent rather than “proving” it

[Rwy in Sight]

To take that just a bit deeper (pun intended) had the perpetrator turn westward he would have been over some of the deepest sea on the world. And I still think that without a statement suicide does not seem like a possibility.

[Dee Vee]

I note , today, that Peter Foley MH370 Search Programme Director in an Estimates Hearing in the Australian Parliament on 22nd May said " There's no earthly reason why someone in control of an aircraft would exhaust its fuel and then attempt to glide it when they have the option of ditching."

Still just defending his own decisions to search in the (proven to be) wrong area, and refuses to admit it might be somewhere he didn't have searched.

Clearly this person should never been in charge of the failed search.

[Airbubba]

"deliberately disabling the transponder"
A case of unintentional but deliberately disabled. How many of us in the heat of the moment would forget you dont need to select standby when changing codes.

Selecting standby sounds more like a Cessna 150 technique than a modern Boeing procedure to me.

Does anybody still teach this? Is it in a manual anywhere? Do they still do it in Asia?

Or, is it a Brit thing like practice PAN's?

[A0283]

The Malaysian government announced that at an unspecified later date a final report will be published.
I sincerely hope that this will be accompanied by opening an NTSB like docket that contains useful raw and processed data.