China Threatens Attack on Taiwan

[ORAC]

Beijing sends warning to US with a new aircraft carrier to patrol South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijing-sends-warning-to-us-with-a-new-aircraft-carrier-to-patrol-south-china-sea-rs20mz0sg)

Beijing has warned that its new aircraft carrier will “thwart” attempts by foreign forces to seize disputed territories in the South China Sea as it objected to the US signing a deal that will allow American ships to be deployed to Taiwan.

President Trump this week signed a National Defense Authorization Act that allows the US and Taiwan to deploy ships into each other’s waters. In response, Li Kexin, from the Chinese embassy in Washington, warned that if the US sailed ships into the port of Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s second biggest city, Beijing would attack the island.... Mr Li said: “The day that a US navy vessel arrives in Kaohsiung is the day that our People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force.”

People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece newspaper, said that China’s unnamed first domestically built aircraft carrier would begin trials soon. It said that the ship, the second aircraft carrier in China’s fleet, was a “symbol of state power” that will “thwart the containment and blockade policies of some powers”. Beijing engaged in a show of force after the editorial was published. Chinese bombers with cruise missiles performed “island encirclement patrols” around Taiwan........

[KenV]

Beijing sends warning to US with a new aircraft carrier to patrol South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijing-sends-warning-to-us-with-a-new-aircraft-carrier-to-patrol-south-china-sea-rs20mz0sg).... Mr Li said: “The day that a US navy vessel arrives in Kaohsiung is the day that our People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force.”Does a USN aircraft count as a USN "vessel"?

[Lonewolf_50]

I guess we'll find out the next time a P-8 diverts for weather?

[A_Van]

Chinese are famous for their "1001-st last and ultimate warning" (used to address to "Soviet revisionists" in 60's and 70's), but with Taiwan they indeed may get furious.

[West Coast]

but with Taiwan they indeed may get furious.

To what end? Furious is fine, invading, blockading, etc upsets the apple cart and their economy to boot.

[cvg2iln]

To what end? Furious is fine, invading, blockading, etc upsets the apple cart and their economy to boot.

True. Let them have their China Sea islands but stop trading with them. Much (nearly all) of what they produce is totally crap. Tank their economy.

[Heathrow Harry]

And watch the rest of the world tank economically - brilliant strategy cvg

[Heathrow Harry]

TBH they don't go round fighting wars in other people's countries the way the West & Russia do......... or maybe you haven't noticed? Nor do they have anything like the number of foreign bases as say the USA

They keep the cost down for every consumer and manufacturer in the rest of the world........ They're as much part of the Global economy as the EU & the USA and as important

About 80 percent of China's exports are manufactured goods - textiles and electronic equipment, and include toys, DVD players, mobile phones, shoes, clothes, food products, sea food, body jewellery, kitchen wares, etc.

50% of cameras, 30% of air conditioners and televisions, 25% of washing machines, and 20% of refrigerators in the world are now being produced or assembled in China.

China also produces agricultural products and chemicals.

China makes half of the world's cement and flat glass, and about a third of its aluminium.

In 2006, China overtook Japan as the second-largest producer of cars and trucks after the United States.

Out of the world's five busiest ports in the world, three are in China.

[A_Van]

Capitalism does not think strategically, short term profit is the top priority. And if the profit margin is two (or even three) digit, capitalists go mad. That was why the monster was raised and now it's too late to reverse the train. Put another way, the children and grand-children of those who enjoyed big and easy monies are now facing challenges and will have to deal with them for a long time. In contrast, the chinese are patient and think decades, not years. When Dan started the reforms in 80's he was considering of 30-40 years of hard work. Now they set plans until 2050 to start global domination.

[VictorWatcher]

Well they could dock in Sual instead I suppose next to the ex- USN Kidd destroyers.

[Heathrow Harry]

Well Van it was V. I Lenin who made the famous remark about buying rope from Capitalists.....

But they did for him and his ideas eventually.

Self-interest makes people very quick to adapt to new situations

[Kerosene Kraut]

They need us and our trade more than we do need them. They even need Taiwan. I can't see a real threat as it makes no sense for them to upset everybody. Russia learnt it the hard way when invading Crimea.

If China creates tensions and threats in the area the west should be vigilant and support it's allies and beef up their equipment. Tit for Tat. Step by step. Cold War lessons learned.

[Herod]

I can't see a real threat as it makes no sense for them to upset everybody. Russia learnt it the hard way when invading Crimea.

Err? As far as I know, Russia still has control of Crimea. Wrongly, but without a response, Vlad got away with it.

[A_Van]

Err? As far as I know, Russia still has control of Crimea. Wrongly, but without a response, Vlad got away with it.


Just some numbers/statistics from Ukrainian (not Russian) officials as per the following link:
https://ru.tsn.ua/ukrayina/matios-obnarodoval-kolichestvo-ukrainskih-voennyh-kotorye-ostalis-v-okkupirovannom-krymu-574354.html


Various Ukrainian forces before separation of Crimea / those who preferred to continue with Ukraine and relocated to mainland from penninsula:


MoD (army, air force, navy, etc.): 13468/3990
National guard: 2560/1177
Border control forces: 1870/519
Security ("Ukrainian KGB"): 1614/242


Thus, only one third of military preferred to continue with Ukraine.
The most "dramatic" situation is with security: only 15% demonstrated real loyalty.


P.S. Sorry for off-topic but a potential parallel with China might be with a question whether all the Taiwanese military would prefer to fight with the mainland being a US proxy?

[Herod]

A Van.

The figures may be correct, but they ignore several factors. Assume you are military, based in Crimea. You possibly have family there, your wife may work there, your children go to school there. The entire family have friends/ties there. It wasn't really a very fair choice they were given, was it?

[Kerosene Kraut]

Russia financially paid for Crimea with ruining it's raw materials export income from the west. Besides of that NATO politically woke up and Russia's credibility suffered big time. The post cold war honeymoon with 'partnership for peace' is over.

[etudiant]

They need us and our trade more than we do need them. They even need Taiwan. I can't see a real threat as it makes no sense for them to upset everybody. Russia learnt it the hard way when invading Crimea.

If China creates tensions and threats in the area the west should be vigilant and support it's allies and beef up their equipment. Tit for Tat. Step by step. Cold War lessons learned.

The Chinese leadership is smart enough to understand that Taiwan is an enormous Chinese asset that is just a friendly reunification away. That will happen eventually, but not until the world has become fully dependent on Taiwan electronics technology.

[Kerosene Kraut]

They would ruin their trade with the west for a long time. They would ruin global trade that they need most. I don't see them doing it. Because, like you said, they are smart.

[etudiant]

They would ruin their trade with the west for a long time. They would ruin global trade that they need most. I don't see them doing it. Because, like you said, they are smart.

In a few more years, there won't be any alternative sources for advanced electronic components and systems outside of Taiwan and China. Nobody makes cell phones apart from them and Korea even now. As long as it is reasonably friendly we'll grin and bear it, because there is no basis for the international community to reject an agreed merger.

[Heathrow Harry]

The temptation to wade into cvg is ....enormous... but he/she is clearly a nut case

Lonewolf is correct - stick with the topic friends.

Interesting article in this weeks Economist on Chinese use of "sharp power" pointing out it is so obvious that it is already generating negative reactions

[Lonewolf_50]

cvg, please take your A versus B to another sub forum. This is Mil Aviation.


Harry: yeah, China have been the 800-pound gorilla in the room for about a decade, so it was just a matter of time before the occasional chest thump and poo throw would commence.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-flexes-might-with-warplanes-over-taiwan-72nw2r9qg?shareToken=d914ad70c4600751d19e36f9c05c063b)

snip:-
Chinese military aircraft have flown over Taiwan, ratcheting up tension on the autonomous island and leading analysts to suggest that it could precede an attack by Beijing, which has been upset by Taipei’s growing ties with the US.

[Heathrow Harry]

Between the main island and some offshore islands I think

China has always been consistent on certain issues:-

1. No external interference in local politics

2. Taiwan is part of CHina

3. They WILL invade Taiwan if it declares independence

4. There is some flexibility on modes of Govt - eg Hong Kong & Macao

5. Existing external borders can be negotiated/altered in face to face negotiations between the parties

But they are big and carry a stick that is getting bigger every day

[ORAC]

There is some flexibility on modes of Govt - eg Hong Kong & Macao Ask those in Hong Kong how that’s working out....

[Heathrow Harry]

Well its 20 years since the lease ran out and its still v different from the mainland. And don't forget it was never a democracy under British rule.

Run by the Honkers & Shankers, theJockey Club and several "traditional cultural societies"

And the New Territories were only British for 99 years

[ORAC]

Taiwan should get used to our warplane flypasts, says China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/taiwan-should-get-used-to-our-warplane-flypasts-says-china-xjkm3cnhk)

Beijing has told Taiwan to get used to its warplanes circling over its land after a series of flypasts ratcheted up tensions. “These were routine drills that had been planned,” An Fengshan, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said. “In time, everyone will get used to it.”

China was angered this year when the US passed the National Defence Authorization Act, which authorises high-level meetings between American and Taiwanese military officials as well as visits to ports by US warships. The Chinese drills have been interpreted as a bid to deter further military contacts between Washington and Taipei.....

This month, Chinese warplanes sent fleets of fighters, bombers and reconnaissance planes to encircle the island in a show of force. On December 17, Beijing released a two-minute video showing the drills. Taiwan’s highest peak, Yushan, was visible in the background. The military planes flew around the island again on December 18 and 20.

This morning Taiwan’s army vowed to fight back against any invasion. “In the face of menace, we are determined to fear no threat, to resist any invasion, and to fight until the end. We have the determination not to fear any sacrifice,” officials warned in a video. “For any enemies who attempt to invade our country, harm our people and underestimate our capabilities, they will be met with the strong resistance they would not have expected.”

Mr An said any military action to resist unification “would not be conducive” to peace and stability........

[A_Van]

...
China was angered this year when the US passed the National Defence Authorization Act, which authorises high-level meetings between American and Taiwanese military officials as well as visits to ports by US warships. The Chinese drills have been interpreted as a bid to deter further military contacts between Washington and Taipei.....
........



I wonder what a shout would be if China signs a similar "friendship agreement" with e.g. Puerto Rico ;)

[Heathrow Harry]

tsk tsk tsk Van...............

how can you suggest such a thing!!!

[West Coast]

Have you seen the financials for Puerto Rico? I'd be happy to unload that burden on the Chinese.

[tonytales]

I wonder how long it will take Taiwan to follow North Korea and make itself invasion-proof by developing home-grown nuclear weapons.

[Heathrow Harry]

I suspect the PRC would take the first test as the green light to invade for sure

[Mike Flynn]

Much as I disagree with China over the nine dash line claim to the South China Sea it is worth highlighting the USA's position in the Indian Ocean.

The Chagos Islanders were displaced in the 1970's by the UK so that the atoll chain could become a major US military base.
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/61/86/c9/6186c9d231c515eb1f8a2c80fecf3583.jpg

In 1965, three years before Mauritius was granted independence, the UK decided to separate the Chagos Islands, an archipelago, from the rest of its Indian Ocean colony. The Mauritian government claims this was in breach of UN resolution 1514, passed in 1960, which specifically banned the breakup of colonies before independence.

The dispute is ongoing.
This from the Guardian six months ago.

The UK has suffered a humiliating defeat at the United Nations general assembly in a vote over decolonisation and its residual hold over disputed territory in the Indian Ocean.

By a margin of 94 to 15 countries, delegates supported a Mauritian-backed resolution to seek an advisory opinion from the international court of justice (ICJ) in The Hague on the legal status of the Chagos Islands.

The Chinese see Taiwan as a US funded threat to their sovereignty.

Most of the Pacific is under US military control.

Just look at Guam.

It is in the Phillipines but a part of the USA and on the same latitude as the Paracels and Spratlys claimed by China.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTBYtIY27OWavr4rOnJ-EovcD7ZYQtBT_YIxMk2I8gu78S0jI9rBlZRS6ve3w
I rest my case.

[ORAC]

Guam is 2,500km from the Philippines, thats about the same distance as London from Istanbul. Guam has never had any racial or cultural association or connection with the Philippines, being a former Spanish colony taken by, and ceded to, the USA in 1998.

Case dismissed.

[Fareastdriver]

eer: try 1898

[ORAC]

I used to be dyslexic, but now I’m KO.....

[Lonewolf_50]

The Chinese see Taiwan as a US funded threat to their sovereignty. Which would make the Chinese idiots, if it were true. They are not, and it isn't. You are invited to read up on the Soong family for starters.
Most of the Pacific is under US military control. If you don't know what you are talking about Jay, best not to open your pie hole.
Just look at Guam. It is in the Phillipines but a part of the USA Just look at Jay, he has no idea what he's talking about.

Suggestion: go back to your usual haunts and attempts at controversy on PPRuNe, Jay, you are out of your element on military aviation (and much else). By the way, I suggest that you look into Kosovo and Bosnia if you think that you understand anything in geopolitics.

[msbbarratt]

...is to be very good at semiconductor production. Which they are. First Chinese boot on a Taiwanese beach = no more world microelectronics industry (or at least a very big dent in it).

With China one wonders if all this is mostly for domestic political consumption rather than an actual intention to do something militarily offensive. If they were deadly serious we'd have seen invasion barges being built years ago.

[BEagle]

Were China to invade Taiwan, would we expect to see any UN sanctions?

One has to wonder; perhaps all those sucking up to China, such as Brex****ters bleating about 'world trade opportunities' being pursued by the likes of Cameron would say that, for the "greater good", they should get away with it?

[Heathrow Harry]

I'd expect the same reaction as when India invaded Goa, Indonesia E Timor, The UK Anguilla and the US on numerous interventions in the Caribbean and C America ....................

zero

[Fareastdriver]

It would be difficult to justify a direst invasion of Taiwan to the Chinese public. There is a lot of intercourse between the two populations especially so at the beginning of the Chinese economic revolution.

When they brought trainloads of young men and women from the interior to work in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Xiamen they couldn't be taught the job properly because they only knew Mandarin and didn't speak Cantonese, Hakka etc. There were no skilled operatives around so the Japanese and Taiwanese companies used Taiwanese teachers who could speak Mandarin. That still goes on, so for a large part of the urban population the Taiwanese are their friends.

There are over a billion mobile phones in China plus unrestricted BBC and CNN so the days of them living like mushrooms have gone.

China still has over half a billion to drag up from near poverty so it is not going to risk its economic progress on a domestic dispute.

[Just This Once...]

Really? China has open internet & unrestricted BBC?

Will tech firms challenge China's 'open' internet? - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-china-blog-42233552)

Tiananmen Square protest death toll 'was 10,000' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-42465516)

[ORAC]

Well apart from China’s aggression over Taiwan on this thread; Japan on the Japan thread and over the South China Seas on that thread - how are they doing?

Oh! Right......

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-china-bungled-its-coming-out-party/

[Fareastdriver]

I didn't say that they had open internet. There was certainly no problem watching unrestricted BBC and CNN during my fifteens years experience there.

There are so many differing casualty numbers from Tiananmen Square from different impeccable sources that it difficult who to believe.

[Just This Once...]

The point was not about the numbers, just the ability of the Chinese population to read such articles at their leisure. Your opinion regarding unfettered access does appear to be in stark contrast with any published article on the subject. The issue has become known as the ‘Great Firewall of China’.... but perhaps not as visible as previously thought.

[Fareastdriver]

Depends on the political bias of who is publishing the article.

Every decent hotel in China has an Ethernet plug on the wall by the desk in the hotel room. In the drawer is the cable so one can connect to broadband immediately. Once I could not get my Gmail so I went to the desk to complain. They gave me the address of a website that by passed China and gave me unfettered access to everybody.

My BBC, CNN, Star Sports etc. gave via cable and I didn't notice any interruptions.

There seems to be outrage that China does not permit fully open internet including all political arguments, porn etc.. It doesn't work that way. China can be described as a paternal dictatorship and their politics are not going to change in the near future so all this bleating about so-called western style freedoms being suppressed is a waste of time.

Get used to it. I did and had a fantastic time.

just the ability of the Chinese population to read such articles at their leisure

99% of them don't care.

[Trim Stab]

I read these anti-China threads with real amazement that there are some really well-educated people (mostly ex-military) who through many years of anti-China indoctrination seriously believe that China has malevolent intent on the world.

1. China has a youthful, fast-growing, highly intelligent population which is absolutely slurping up rapidly increasing economic opportunities available to them. If you speak to any young Chinese people these days - they remind me of American youth in the 50s/60(before the stupidity of the Vietnam war)- just massively optimistic about their futures. By contrast most young westerners are really pessimistic about their futures particularly due to climate change, Brexit, pointless wars fought for pointless aims (Vietnam was the first then many followed) - and a feeling that their respective systems of "democracy" do not hold their futures in interest.

2. China youth has no interest in war with US or anybody else. Just why would they want to wreck their future and their family future, for war with the idiotic american system, which is characterised by Trump? China does not want war - they are too intelligent for that! Like most Asians, they regard Americans as fat, smelly pigs who eat appalling food, make dreadful loud bang crude rap music, have a really sick interest in killing other people with guns, and have no culture whatsoever, and a truly vile system which keeps the poor poor and lets the wealthy get wealthier. What would they gain from war with US?

3. China has a vastly superior political system to the USA. China could never elect an idiot like Trump (or even Hilary Clinton just to be measured) as political leader. USA is just a nuisance to China. If USA would stop spending such vast percentages of its GDP on weapons which can only be justified to threaten China, China would release more of its income to spend on education, healthcare which is what any true civilisation values.

4. USA is a dead-duck. It is spending far too much on "defenSe", far too little on education. It is making itself vulnerable in the future. China will sit back, quietly build a highly educated population with equitable and meritocratic income distribution and wait...

[West Coast]

Do you live There?

There's all in and then there's blind adulation.

[etudiant]

Trim Stab is surely quite correct that the young Chinese should feel optimistic, their country has been resurgent in a most impressive fashion during their entire lives.
Nor should they want war, why bother when things are going so well?
As is, the US makes the world safe for Chinese investment, in Africa, Latin America and also in the USA.
Trim Stab is quite correct also when he points out that China is building the infrastructure and the social capital to support its future growth, while the US is dissipating its accumulated goodwill with pointless military interventions.
Imho, that does not translate into adulation.

[A_Van]

IMHO, "over-demonizing" USA and "over-angelizing" China is not correct.
The reality is multi-colour (even with IR and UV components).

[Heathrow Harry]

I'm with Van on this one

Any patriotic Chinese is going to subscribe to some of Trim Stab's rather OTT summary.

Any American is going to point to the (many) failings of the Chinese system and feel a bit queasy about the growing influence of China in the world

We should remember that great power politics is NOT a zero-sum game - it pays all sides to rub along