Unconfirmed report that Bombardier has sold the Q400 program

[twochai]

FYI:

http://www.fliegerfaust.com/

I have no idea whether this is fact or fake news!

[DaveReidUK]

Bloomberg were suggesting a week ago, before the Airbus deal was announced, that both the Q400 and CRJ programmes could be up for sale:

Bombardier Is Exploring Options for Its Aerospace Businesses (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-15/bombardier-is-said-to-explore-options-for-aerospace-businesses)

[Heathrow Harry]

They were talking of moving a lot of production to Russia a few years back........... they've never really been able to compete with the ATR-72 aand the compnay focus on the C series hasn't helped

[J.O.]

1076 ATR variants have been built since inception while 1225 variations of the DHC8 have been built. I'd say they held their own just fine.

[Liffy 1M]

ATR production (all models) has reached over 1,400 at this stage, with msn 1455 in service with Air Tahiti.

[Willie Everlearn]

The management team at Bombardier (mostly former aviation industry management types) must have realized months ago when they took over that this company had numerous aircraft, both business and commercial, that were directly competing with each other. Never mind their industry competitors.

That reality needed to be addressed. It’s taking time but it certainly seems like things are being addresssed by them.

I think what they’re doing or at least seem to be doing, is consolidating into one version of Bombardier Aerospace. They seem clearly to be focused on the Global Vision and New Generation Challenger ‘50’ Series business Jets. 650 and 350. Learjet is the orphan that never really found a home.

The Dash 8 Series has paid its’ way and found a seat in the aeroplane hall of fame but, Regional Airlines will no longer order these aircraft types in large numbers as they did in the past and Bombardier knows that. Embraer doesn’t, if they’re seriously considering the introduction of a ‘clean sheet’ turbo prop. But good luck to them if they do.

Success has not found the C series yet. The jury will be out for awhile on that.

[twochai]

The Dash 8 Series has paid its’ way and found a seat in the aeroplane hall of fame but, Regional Airlines will no longer order these aircraft types in large numbers as they did in the past and Bombardier knows that. Embraer doesn’t, if they’re seriously considering the introduction of a ‘clean sheet’ turbo prop. But good luck to them if they do.


Willie, you're quite right the Dash 8 has found its niche although it has suffered badly where price is the only competitive advantage. The Dash 8 suffered over ten years from under-investment in the product but this has been corrected recently and it is now regaining market share. The competition with ATR has been fierce, based largely on price, but there is now an appreciation the Dash 8 has better economics and much better performance anywhere there is high terrain (i.e. the Rockies), high temperatures (India) or long stages (i.e. Porter).

With the new turboprop announced by PWC this week in the 4,500 SHP to 7,000 SHP bracket for service entry in 2023-2025, a whole new range of possibilities is opened up.

[Heathrow Harry]

" I'd say they held their own just fine"

getting wiped in sales recently -

From MRO Network......

ATR,has a backlog of 250 aircraft—mostly for the 68-78-seat ATR 72-600, while Bombardier has only 31 orders left to fulfill for its slightly larger Q400 turboprop.

In-service numbers also support ATR’s dominance: Aviation Week’s 2017 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast estimates a global ATR 72 fleet of 921 aircraft in 2017, versus 539 Q400s. By 2022 there will be almost 1,300 ATR 72s in service, Aviation Week predicts.

[plhought]

In-service numbers also support ATR’s dominance: Aviation Week’s 2017 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast estimates a global ATR 72 fleet of 921 aircraft in 2017, versus 539 Q400s.

ATR 72 production started 1989-90. Q400 production started 1999-2000. I'd say those are pretty comparable numbers given the 72 had a 10 year lead. Of course between 1989 and 2000 Dehavilland/Boeing Canada/Bombardier was pumping out lots of -100s/200s/-300s.

A more accurate sales/production comparison would be between the ATR 72-600 and Q400.

But the Q400 will always lag behind the ATR in sales no matter it's near-universal performance/technological/economic superiority. They simply don't have the production capacity to make them quick enough - and I believe this hurts sales when it comes to customers waiting for loonnnggg lead times.

That oft-quoted figure of 31 airplanes (June 2017) is inaccurate as well, there's been an additional 25 firm orders from SpiceJet, with options for 25 more. Plus a couple random orders as well.

[andrasz]

Having done several studies comparing the two types, it is apples and oranges, cannot bluntly state that one is more economical than the other, it all depends on the role.

The ATR is unbeatable in seat cost for stage lenghts under 500 NM in high infrastructure cost (airport & navigation fees) environments like Europe. The ATR 72 has the lightest airframe weight per seat of any airliner in operation, period (beating the 380 & 787 too). However its cost advantage starts disappearing quickly on longer routes due to the low speed, as hourly costs (crew, mainenance, ownership) start kicking in.

The Q400 was designed to compete with jets on under 1000 NM stage lenghts, where the speed disadvantage is not so significant commercially, however fuel economies are major (at time of launch trip fuel was about 50% of that needed by similar capacity jets, eg Fokker 70). Modern RJ-s have eroded this cost advantage, and the ERJ comes very close to the ATR-s empty weight per seat figure, leaving less role for the Q400.

On the other hand, there is nothig remotely similar on the drawing board to challenge the ATR on short regional routes. However the main competition on such short sectors is now high-speed train, not surprisingly most ATR sales these days are to regions with no such rail infrastructure.

[ve3id]

. Learjet is the orphan that never really found a home.


I am sure things would have been different if they had taken up my suggestion and called it the 'fly-doo' :-)

[DaveReidUK]

That oft-quoted figure of 31 airplanes (June 2017) is inaccurate as well, there's been an additional 25 firm orders from SpiceJet, with options for 25 more. Plus a couple random orders as well.

It will be interesting to see what the Q3 2017 Program Status Report (due out in a week or two) says.

[galaxy flyer]

Lear 45 an orphan? BBD Lear designed, built it and has a huge installed base to support. Hardly an orphan, true, it might be dead in the water, sales wise.

[Heathrow Harry]

Interesting that ATR orders have continued even tho fuel prices have dropped significantly...............

[andrasz]

@HH,

Much of ATR's advantage comes from the lightness, on short routes MTOW driven airport and ATC fees can be as much as 1/3 to 1/2 of total DOC. As mentioned above, the ATR 72 has the lowest OEW per seat of any airliner in operation, and does not really have competition in its class.

[ZFT]

Real pity ATR support is probably the worst of any OEM. With better support I suspect sales would be ever better?

[Kobus Dune]

... However the main competition on such short sectors is now high-speed train, not surprisingly most ATR sales these days are to regions with no such rail infrastructure.

... Regions which are Indonesia, Philippines, India ... and other Asian countries, with big population, so ATR can rest in peace and continues making a fortune nowadays with those customers.
If you take all the DHC-8, yes the numbers are quite high - now if take only the Q-400, it's not going so well. So as you see, different ways to display the market results.

Real pity ATR support is probably the worst of any OEM. With better support I suspect sales would be ever better?

Yes yes, we know :rolleyes: bad customer support, like Airbus, and in spite of that, so many being sold - so not a real worry

[andrasz]

ATR support is probably the worst of any OEM


Any possible correlation with the fact that it has no real competition in its class... ?

[Heathrow Harry]

I've read that the Q400 suffered sales-wise as Bombadier were pitching both jets and turboprops to the same airlines for quite similar roles....

[andrasz]

Correct, the Q400 and the CRJ-200 were quite close in roles & performance. Bombardier pushed the (more expensive) CRJ heavily, offering big discounts to the point of making it look sweet in comparison with the Q400. Paradoxically when said airlines who fell for it realised that the CRJ performance (and reliablity) does not meet the marketing promises, Bombardier offered to take them back and deliver Q400 instead...

[twochai]

ATR has not had any significant sales in North America since the Roselawn accident.

[gordon field]

VIking were trying to purchase the Dash 8 100 and start building them again as they see a demand for that size of aircraft but just having bought the CL415 line and got rid of all of their Sales Representatives around the world they will be hard pushed to sell them. It's no good building them if you don't have someone to sell them. Do they have the money to keep investing?

[oleary]

Do that have the money to keep investing?

Yes ......

[Ian Corrigible]

ATR has not had any significant sales in North America since the Roselawn accident.
Well, not until two months ago: Silver Airways orders 20 ATR 42-600s +30 options (https://www.silverairways.com/about-silver/press-room/article/2017/08/01/silver-airways-announces-major-strategic-growth-developments-and-new-leadership)

[J.O.]

When it comes to customer service, Bombardier is no shining star.

[WHBM]

Notably, their railway vehicle building industry, the other substantial part of their worldwide business, is known for the same thing ...

Ongoing product support is possibly more important to purchasers than initial first cost, it is something that both Boeing and Airbus, by the sheer size of their installed fleets, are able to handle readily worldwide. It would be one of the key things for the Airbus-Bombardier venture to benefit from. It is something that new entrants really find a challenge. Bombardier, with their established turboprops, regional jets, and business jets, really ought to have a handle on it.

[Harry Wayfarers]

VIking were trying to purchase the Dash 8 100 and start building them again as they see a demand for that size of aircraft but just having bought the CL415 line and got rid of all of their Sales Representatives around the world they will be hard pushed to sell them. It's no good building them if you don't have someone to sell them. Do that have the money to keep investing?

Here in Philippines there are two mainstream turboprop operators, Air Philippines/PAL Express with Q400's and Cebu Air with ATR72's.

The Q400 simply cannot compete with the ATR on short field performance, and there are plenty of short fields around these parts, Cebu Air have been leaving Air Philippines so far behind that Air Philippines have now gone and got themselves some Q300's to take on the opposition with.

So there is something to be said for the older generations of modern day aircraft!

[DirtyProp]

An interesting article comparing the Q400 with the ATR 72:
Proud to fly a Turboprop: Q400 vs ATR72 | The Flying Engineer (http://theflyingengineer.com/aircraft/proud-to-fly-a-turboprop-q400-vs-atr72/)

I am particularly impressed by the much lower break-even load factor of the ATR vs Bombardier.

[Heathrow Harry]

V interesting article and clear attempt to stay unbiased

Conclusions seem very fair:-

The Q400 and the ATR72 are two aircraft in their own leagues, beyond a true comparison. The Q400 offers immense operational flexibility and unparalleled performance, while requiring only one aircraft type for most missions. The ATR 72 wins over the Q400 in the operating economics, from the start to the finish. The ATR 72 is less expensive to purchase, to operate, and goes out with a good resale value to cost sensitive operators due to a high demand for the type.

[tescoapp]

The commercial wizard at our place has worked with both fleet types.

He said that the Q400 can mix and match with regional Jets. Ie for a 2 hour jet sector and something goes tech or loads are low you can switch it out with a Q and still not have to pay comp. ATR its not really an option.

1 hour to 2 hour sectors on the dash you can get an addition 2 sectors out of a crew and 4 out of the aircraft in a day.

He also said the Q kept route integrity which was explained to me that if you planned everything at 220knts indicated on the dash at FL240 or FL250 then if you got hit with headwinds. The dash you had the option of dropping down to FL200 and just taking the hit for fuel and blasting it (Vmo 260 knts indicated cruise at Vmo -10) . Meaning you only really started to struggle keeping things on time when the headwinds went over 50knts on the way home. The ATR was stuffed even with modest 25 headwinds. Not a problem on sub 1 hour sectors for it but when you got to 1:30 -> 2 hours it would cause huge rolling delays. An if the wx stayed the same for 3-4 days then crewing became an big issue.

[Heathrow Harry]

"taking the hit for fuel" probably explains a lot....

a lot of ATR operators probably aren't as concerned about time keeping - when you're the only service in town you take what you get and don't moan

Like so much of aviation these days it's costs, costs, costs that drive the business

[J.O.]

A little humour at Boeing’s expense.

https://www.captiongenerator.com/745852/Boeing-Reacts-to-BombardierAirbus-partnership-

[tescoapp]

when you're the only service in town you take what you get and don't moan

Well the delay comp can mount up if your full I suppose. It wasn't that much extra fuel and most of that you would get back going slow and high with the tail wind.

He seemed to be sub 1 hour ATR anything over that Q400

[Heathrow Harry]

Not every country has delay comp........... and in others actually getting it paid is almost impossible

The initial lower cost plus the lower cost of operations just makes the ATR an obvious choice in most countries unless you are trying to compete with jet services

[tescoapp]

true enough.

There is also something to do with front door loading of punters and it having a proper APU. Instead of a prop brake and hotel mode.

India has just taken a load of them though I believe.

But I am only a stick monkey, leave this airline biz stuff to those that know what they are talking about.

Must admit I would prefer to be in the back of Q400 than a ATR.

[twochai]

The same unconfirmed source now says the Q400 has been sold to China:

Bombardier Q400 Division Sold to China - FliegerFaust (http://www.fliegerfaust.com/q400-sold-to-china-2502191746.html)