Aberdeen-2

[Heathrow Harry]

"With the oil industry on the up again - in large part because they have been subsidised through the down-turn by removing all requirement for them to pay tax -"

How wrong can you get?

The N Sea oil business is in catastrophic decline -still layoffs and thousands of jobs gone .......... and they don't pay tax because they aren't making any money for God's sake

[Porrohman]

BP's CEO stated late last year that they are targeting producing UK oil for less than $12 per barrel. They are currently producing for $15 per barrel, selling it for over $50 and paying no net UK corporate taxes. They are in the process of doubling their UK output according to their CEO. Shell recently paid the biggest dividend in corporate history and is paying no net corporate taxes in the UK. The Scottish Government has recently wound up its oil jobs taskforce as the industry has turned the corner. UK oil and gas output was recently forecast to be 1.9 million barrels per day by the end of next year against 0.9 million barrels per day a couple of years ago as a result of new fields coming on stream and old fields completing their upgrades. To put these figures into perspective, at the peak in the 90s, UK oil production maxed at just over 2.8 million barrels per day and the price at the time ranged between $10 and $20 per barrel. Your information is somewhat out of date Harry.

The reason for the downturn in jobs from 2014 was partly to do with falling oil prices but significantly because very generous tax incentives in the preceeding few years were slashed. These tax incentives led to record levels of investment (which are now nearing production) and a jobs bonanza but huge numbers of jobs were lost when the incentives were cut. After the massive job cuts in 2014, taxes have since been slashed again.

One of the biggest problems that the UK's privatised oil industry has suffered from in the last forty years is a hugely unstable tax regime which creates boom and bust situations. Norways's substantially state owned industry doesn't suffer from the same issue and enjoys far more stability.

[Porrohman]

Harry, part of the problem with people's perception of the state of the oil and gas industry in the UK is that the UK mainstream media tends to give very little prominence to good news and lots of prominent coverage to bad news. More balanced coverage is provided in company accounts, company press releases and industry / investment websites.

Here are some examples of recent stories that have received little attention in the UK mainstream media;

U.K. North Sea Oil Field Startups Surge to 10-Year High (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-04/u-k-north-sea-oil-field-startups-surge-to-highest-in-10-years-j75n10pi)

Wood Mackenzie expects the U.K. continental shelf to pump about 1.9 million barrels equivalent a day of oil and gas on average in 2018, with production from the new fields this year accounting for as much as 12 percent of that total.

BP Chief says North Sea Costs are $15 per Barrel (https://www.oilandgas360.com/bp-chief-says-north-sea-costs-are-15-per-barrel/)

... our average production costs in the North Sea coming down from a peak of over $30 a barrel in 2014, to less than $15 a barrel today. Heading towards 2020, with all our major new developments coming into production, we expect that to come down below $12 a barrel in the North Sea,” the BP chief executive said.

Hurricane Energy sweeps towards first oil, confirms final investment decision (https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/150510/hurricane-energy-sweeps-towards-first-oil-confirms-final-investment-decision/)

Hurricane’s acreage is concentrated on the Rona Ridge, West of Shetland. The Lancaster licence, the company’s most appraised asset, has combined 2P Reserves and 2C Resources of 523 million barrels. In addition, the company has 205 million barrels of oil equivalent on its Whirlwind licence

During the 2016-2017 drilling campaign the company made two significant discoveries at Halifax and Lincoln, indicating that the Greater Lancaster Area and the Greater Warwick Area have the potential to be two large accumulations.

Total starts production at Edradour & Glenlivet fields, West of Shetland (http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/8/30/total-starts-production-at-edradour-glenlivet-fields-west-of-shetland)

Total has announced start-up of production from the Edradour & Glenlivet gas and condensate fields, located in about 300 to 435 m of water in the West of Shetland area, close to Laggan-Tormore fields, which came on stream in February 2016. The Edradour and Glenlivet development will bring additional production capacity of up to 56,000 boed.

That's not to say that everything in the North Sea is rosy but the situation is not as bad as many people have been led to believe.

[SWBKCB]

"More balanced coverage is provided in .... company press releases ...."

Ouch! Not a phrase you see every day :ok:

[inOban]

Is $15 the marginal cost of pumping oil from a field whose upfront costs have written off, or does it include the cost of searching for, appraising, and bringing to production new fields?

[Porrohman]

The costs of the new fields were written off against tax as they were incurred. They were also included in the costs of production as they were incurred.

The extremely generous tax allowances in 2012-14 resulted in record levels of investment. Many new fields were given the go-ahead and many existing fields reduced or stopped production in order for their infrastructure to be upgraded. The temporary tax breaks also accelerated decommissioning of old infrastructure.

The tax breaks for investments that were commenced during 2012-14 continue until the related works are completed. These new and upgraded fields are beginning to come on stream and most of the rest will do so over the next couple of years. Meanwhile, the costs of these investments has tailed off significantly as fields near, and reach, production.

The net effect of the massive tax breaks between 2012 and 2014 was to cause production to temporarily fall significantly. The record high investment levels and the reduced production rate meant that these costs had to be spread across a lower volume of output. The result, inevitably, was that the cost per barrel rose significantly and tax take collapsed despite the oil price being circa $100 per barrel.

As the new and upgraded fields come on stream, production is forecast to double. Meanwhile, investment in new fields has fallen significantly since 2014. The much lower costs of investment will thus be spread across a greatly increased volume of production so the cost per barrel will drop by about 60% or more between 2014 and 2018.

Boom and bust in the UK oil industry is partly caused by volatile prices but a more significant factor is a volatile tax and incentive regime. In 2014, the tax breaks were cut, the oil price fell and the industry was thus hit by a double whammy. New investments were severely curtailed just as the ones that were underway were beginning to tail off. Huge numbers of jobs were lost as a result. Westminster was very slow to react to the changed circumstances.

In the 2016 budget, Petroleum Revenue tax (the tax on extraction) was effectively abolished. The industry still has to pay corporation tax but that is one of the easiest taxes in the UK to legally avoid as evidenced by countless companies. Paying taxes in the UK is now, to all intents and purposes, entirely optional for any individual or business that can afford the best tax advisors and lawyers.

The current situation is that BP is in the process of doubling its UK output, the oil price is over $50 per barrel, it is producing UK oil for $15 per barrel and is targeting a production cost of less than $12 per barrel while currently paying no net UK corporate taxes.

[LesPretend]

Some very well informed statements on the current state of the oil industry however the reality for a lot of companies on how the 'new norm' operates is very different.

A lot of travel budgets have been hacked back to zero, even domestic flights need approval from higher ups often in the US and video conferencing has to be looked at before travel is approved so many meetings simply just don't happen.

I, and many others used to think nothing of jumping on an EZE down the east coast for £450 a shot on a weekly basis and if my company have stopped that (a fairly large support company) then I suspect most others have as well. We have even started doing UAV site inspections (that used to be 10 or so guys travelling from all over) that get real time relayed back to surveyors in Aberdeen and satellite offices.

It now becomes the new norm that travelling is much less accepted than it was.

The FlyBe/EZE tie up kind of signifies to me that the halcyon days of business travel from ABZ are gone for the minute.

[Fletch]

That was my thoughts. If the the price of production has dropped with further gains targeted, these "efficiencies" have to be found somewhere. I would think the overall profitability of the supply chain will have taken a battering. Can't see it being great for Eastern or other OAG type business.

[Heathrow Harry]

Sorry guys - the majors are all exiting the UK N Sea - selling out to the small guys if they can. The size of discoveries continues to fall. Major pieces of infrastructure are being decomissioned. No young people are joining the business. Costs are coming down but not fast enough.

The N Sea is up against the US shale guys who have cut their costs dramatically over the last couple of years and who can react very rapidly to any change in the oil price - far faster than the N Sea.

If BP are targetting $ 12 a barrel a lot of jobs will have to go and the contracting business will be wiped out - or gutted - other costs have stayed the same and that means the contractors are going to get 20-30% of what they were earning 3 years ago... go figure on what that means for income, jobs and careers.............

[01475]

Both sides of this argument are correct; the industry is in catastrophic decline and oil company profits are recovering*.

*Partly as a result of taking actions that do not benefit allied industries such as air travel...

Edit:

Also, the government is not benevolent when it comes to North Sea tax revenue. They made the changes because they didn't want negative revenue from the North Sea again!!!

[LesPretend]

Digressing somewhat but someone mentioned no young people coming into the industry.

This is one of the saddest stories of the downturn. Apprenticeships were one of the first things to go ('headcount reducers' should be ashamed of this) as were a lot of our younger staff and it's the same across the board.

[Heathrow Harry]

Someone was telling me that in Sept 2016 not a single oil company interviewed oil patch MSc. graduates at Imperial College in London........................... breaking a 50+ year run

most have gone into Financial Services I was told.

[Richard Taylor]

A tech issue with this morning's Paris inbound:

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/news/scotland/1327065/paris-aberdeen-flight-makes-emergency-landing-at-edinburgh-airport/

Looks like so far at least the RYR flights t/f ABZ are unaffected by their current troubles.

Loganair are feeling quite bullish now they are flying solo:
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1326885/scotlands-airline-flies-higher-after-flybe-split/

Finally for Harry & others, here's some oil news:
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/business/uk-and-abroad/1327258/uk-oil-and-gas-reserves-will-expire-in-10-years-edinburgh-university-research/
10 years left. Apparently. NS Oil has been running out for the last 30yrs... or will last another century, depending on who you are listening to. Gimme a break. :rolleyes:

[Porrohman]

Ever since the McCrone Report was produced in the early 1970s (then classified as a state secret for over thirty years) the oil has been due to run out in ten years. Forties was only "expected" to last for about ten years back then but, nearly fifty years after it was discovered, its current operator expects it to last another forty years. All oil fields suffer from diminishing production rates as initial pressures drop. Operators need to keep investing in them to keep production levels up. Techniques include drilling additional wells and injecting fluids into the reservoir to force the oil out. If no further investments are made then the field will run out sooner rather than later.

When fields are first discovered, estimates of economically recoverable oil are sometimes as low as 10% of the oil originally in place. The oil originally in place estimates are often very low too. It's not unusual for the initial estimates of oil originally in place to increase by several orders of magnitude. The figures for the Shiehallion Field, Forties Field and Greater Clair area, for example, have been massively increased since they were first discovered. The industry is notoriously conservative in estimating recoverable reserves as Forties demonstrates. With the latest extraction techniques, 80% or more of the oil originally in place can sometimes be recovered. The bigger the reservoir, the more economic it becomes to maximise recovery of the oil initially in place.

The Greater Clair area and Greater Lancaster contain far more oil originally in place than Forties and Brent did at their equivalent stage of development. Part of the reason that BP's cost of production is heading below $12 per barrel is because of the Schiehallion and adjacent fields coming back on-screen post-upgrade and the latest phase of the Clair field, Clair Ridge, coming on stream next year.

Greater Lancaster is unlikely to reach full field development until the mid 2020s unless a farm-out to a major oil company is achieved soon. The section of the Rona Ridge between Clair and Lancaster is about to be explored (by Shell, I think) and expectations are high that it will resemble Clair and Lancaster and thus contain enormous reserves by UK standards. A field west of Lewis was discovered some time ago that contains huge amounts of oil but the absence of infrastructure on Lewis, the distance to Shetland and the much easier pickings close to Shetland means that it's unlikely to be developed for a very long time. There are plenty more examples of Scotland's oil potential but none of these are included in industry estimates because they haven't been adequately assessed.

The research referenced in the P&J is, at best, very misleading. We have to ask who funded it and what their motivation was. We have a saying in Scotland; "He who pays the piper calls the tunes". By talking down the future potential, oil companies can keep downwards pressure on the supply chain costs and Westminster can continue the tactics that began with the McCrone Report. This report could also be used to justify fracking.

[Porrohman]

According to its website;

"The Edinburgh Geologist is a twice yearly magazine for amateur geologists and non-specialists.
It combines articles on Scottish geology or having a Scottish flavour together with poetry, entertainment and other ephemera."

[Porrohman]

I've just read the source report. Here is the basis for the assertion;

Today the most straightforward way to assess Scotland’s likely remaining offshore oil wealth is a forward projection of the data of Figure 1. [Figure 1 is UK output since first production.] Using this approach I estimate an ultimate resource of 31 x 109 Bbl, with 11% still remaining to be recovered over the next decade. My total coincides closely with geologically grounded estimates, dating as far back as the mid-1990s, which were based on field-by-field appraisals of the porous volume of reservoir sands.

This completely ignores the fact that the industry forecasts that production will double by the end of next year. As I said in my initial assessment, the report is, at best, misleading. I would now go further and say that it ignores recent developments and instead just extrapolates from historic data.

[Heathrow Harry]

But thats what Reservoir Engineer s do.... short term production boosts accelerate production not increase reserves. Long term production will fall, its a matter of how long you can stretch it.

[pax britanica]

Sadly the UK has faired evry badly from N Sea oil compared to Norway who has squirrelled away trillions in Sovereign wealth and infrastructure investments. here we just got screwed over by lazy and corrupt government, red and blue, who let the oil companies avoid taxes and after many years have left the UK with very little to show for its oil boom.

Sad but pretty much the norm for us, be nice to get sovereignty back from Brussels so we can use that model on our remaining industries and commercial sectors

[Richard Taylor]

Yeah get sovereignty back... so we can get screwed some more by red white and blue and all the other colours that have ever held power over us. :bored:

Incidentally the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund story was squirreled away in a very small snippet deep in the pages of my beloved local rag. Obviously hoping we didn't see it, as if we weren't aware!

Anyway, west of Shetland does appear to be gaining interest, especially along the Rona Ridge. Have Hurricane hit the jackpot? Only time will tell if the initial excitement is well-founded. I see the FPSO Aoki Mizu is being renovated in Dubai (or is about to be), to be stationed on the Lancaster discovery some time 2018/9.

As you say Porrohman, kind of flies in the face of the 10yr forecast, albeit 'N.Sea' is also these days regarded as a 'catch-all' phrase for the entire UKCS, including the Atlantic margin such as west of Shetland.

[CaptainDoony]

Aberdeen-2? Wow that’s like 10 years of ABZ history gone just like that!

Air Baltic look like they will be returning next year albeit at twice weekly, but after things ended up last time I guess this has to be taken somewhat positively.

[Richard Taylor]

That's good news Capt D, I think 2w is probably about right in my view for RIX. Any idea of the a/c type for S18?

[CaptainDoony]

Down as B733/B735 again

[Porrohman]

Industry body Oil & Gas UK has also rubbished the reports about the imminent demise of the UK industry;

September 19, 2017
Commenting on Edinburgh University’s oil and gas study published today, Deirdre Michie, Chief Executive of Oil & Gas UK, said:

“There are up to 20 billion barrels of oil and gas resources still to be recovered on the UK Continental Shelf, based on production forecasts provided by the Oil and Gas Authority.

“Production has increased over the last two years and we expect that to continue to rise. Significant new capacity has been added to the UKCS. Nine new fields began production in 2016 and a further seven started producing in the first half of this year – most of which will still be producing in 2030. A further 12 are due on-stream by the end of next year. Some notably large developments will still be producing towards 2050. Advances in technologies are also presenting fresh opportunities and helping make discoveries commercially viable.

“To ensure the remaining potential of the UKCS is realised, we need to keep operating costs low, bring in new investment and maintain a relentless focus on exploration and enhanced recovery.

“The UK Government forecasts that two thirds of the UK’s energy will come from oil and gas in 2035. We must maximise recovery of our domestic resources so that we can continue to help to meet the UK’s energy needs and safeguard the 300,00 UK jobs our industry supports.”

Source; https://oilandgasuk.co.uk/statement-on-edinburgh-university-oil-and-gas-study/

It'll be interesting to see whether the mainstream media will give this statement as much prominence as the report claiming that oil would run out in ten years got. I won't hold my breath.

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/flight-operator-agreement-to-strengthen-connections-at-city-airport/

BE flight codes to be added to T3 flights - not sure if that was already known or new info.

[ATIS31]

Mmmmmm Eastern Airways website gone from end of October. Aircraft Painted in Flybe Colours could this be the end of Eastern Airways as they disappear into Flybe ?

[JobsaGoodun]

Very unlikely I'd have thought, after all it didn't have this effect for either Loganair or Blue Islands so I wouldn't have thought there would be any different outcome for Eastern. I imagine the last thing BE want would be a myriad of E70/E145/E135/Saabs and Jetstreams to worry about.

[Richard Taylor]

ABZ revenue down 13.8%, reflecting the downturn in the oil industry:

Kevin Scott: Contrasting fortunes for Scotland?s airports (From HeraldScotland) (http://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/15557542.Kevin_Scott__Contrasting_fortunes_for_Scotland___s_ airports/)

[Richard Taylor]

Loganair claims first blood in airline battle | Shetland News (http://www.shetnews.co.uk/news/15257-loganair-claim-first-blood-in-airline-battle)

LOGANAIR chief Jonathan Hinkles said his airline is performing better than Flybe on routes to and from Shetland - but he warned having two operators at Sumburgh Airport "isn't sustainable" at current passenger levels.

The battle between the rival airlines swapped the skies for Lerwick Town Hall on Thursday afternoon as representatives for both operators gave updates at the latest meeting of the Shetland external transport forum.

Hinkles revealed passenger figures for the two operators since they quit their franchise partnership and went head to head from 1 September, with his airline seemingly winning so far.

But figures showed that all of the planes were on average flying less than half full as thousands of seats went empty.

Hinkles said Loganair had nearly double the number of passengers than Flybe travelling to and from Sumburgh on their competing routes in the first three weeks of September, despite it having less seats available on its smaller Saab planes.

Flybe interim chief commercial officer Ronnie Matheson said the figures were in line with the airline's initial predictions as it builds on encouraging more people to travel to Shetland with lower fares, with future expansion possible.

Flybe - in conjunction with Eastern Airways - competes with Loganair on routes to Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow using a bigger, faster Embraer 170 jet on nine flights a day.

Hinkles told the forum that 6,176 people had used Loganair between 1 and 20 September, while 3,199 travelled with Flybe.

He added that Loganair had 12,690 seats on their routes and Flybe 13,684, meaning the former had an overall load of 49 per cent and the latter 23 per cent.

Hinkles' statistics also showed that Loganair had a market share of two thirds and Flybe had 34 per cent.

Loganair's performance this summer compared to last year was up on 2016, he said, while planned developments include adding defibrillators to aircraft and adding more overhead baggage space.

Hinkles also attacked Flybe's schedule over the upcoming festive period, with Loganair set to operate on every day Sumburgh Airport is open while Flybe is set to cut back on its Edinburgh and Aberdeen routes, for example.

He added that Loganair had evaluated using the Embraer 170 - taking over five years of weather data from Sumburgh - and concluded that it is three times more likely to "suffer serious delay or cancellation due to weather than the Saab 2000 on the same flight".

Hinkles concluded that "the market is not growing to sustain the extra services" but said "we are here to stay - and we will be here to stay".

To me, underlines the unsustainability of competition in the current climate, and of using jets on the LSI run.

[CaptainDoony]

23%. I can beat that!

Flew to LSI earlier on this month with a total of 6 pax on the E70.

Even worse than that, the LSI-GLA rotation after that had.... zero pax

Just had a look, and BE have cut their base fares again. £35 o/w, a far cry from a month ago!

[Heathrow Harry]

So we're looking at a market of 10,000 pax in 20 days............... even if one airline gives up that's still only 70 - 78% which is probably just about break even

With 2 on the route they could both end up hurting badly

[Rob Royston]

I don't know how anyone could add such a large aircraft to a lightly populated airport like Sumburgh, especially with another company already established with smaller unfilled aircraft.
Did they think that the oil companies would use it? There are good reasons why the oil companies use charter flights. They can regulate the forwarding of people to Shetland if weather conditions, or other delays, are causing them logistical problems. They can also get their home-bound crews out of Shetland whenever their chopper lands from offshore.
I'm going back a few years but I doubt if things have changed much. Many of the charters would not leave Aberdeen if the helicopters were not cleared to fly out to the platforms. There was only limited accommodation available so sending crews up there on spec could mean a lot of expensive flying up and down.

[Richard Taylor]

... despite a continuing fall in helicopter passenger numbers - perhaps this is underlined following the recent stories re Bristow making engineering/pilot redundancies, and now reported today Babcock posting a loss.

Aberdeen International Airport traffic continues to rise - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-41580953)

Domestics +7.2%
International +3.3%
Helicopters -8.2%

Perhaps to bear in mind Sept 2017 would also have been inflated by Offshore Europe so perhaps the lukewarm growth also reflects the downturn with not as many delegates attending the conference this time.

Still, fixed-wing passenger increases are welcomed.

[Richard Taylor]

Last commercial sorties tomorrow I understand for the remaining KLM Fokker 70 fleet before they are retired. We are down to get PH-KZS.

Bit of an end of an era - ABZ has seen F27, 28, 50, 70, 100 through the years, with the likes of Air UK, KLM, NLM, SAS, Busybee etc.

I've always had the Fokkers visual.... :E

[simfly]

4 x KLM flights arrived in NWI this morning in trail. Assume it was F70s heading there for storage.

[Richard Taylor]

Loganair agrees code share with sister airline | The Shetland Times Ltd (http://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2017/11/01/loganair-agrees-code-share-sister-airline)

Probably not the most surprising news in the world.

[Heathrow Harry]

News? NEWS?

Clearly not much happening in Shetland thsi week....................

[CaptainDoony]

Looks like TUI have had second thoughts about their planned BOJ service.

Dropped, replaced with an additional PMI rotation meaning it will be 4x weekly next year. I did wonder if BOJ could sustain two operators - Balkan remain twice weekly as with previous years.

On a PMI related note it doesn’t look like TCX will return next year after their 6 week token run this year operated by Evelop (which strangely ended just as peak season started!)

[Richard Taylor]

I always found TCX rather strange. Never seemed to see them at ABZ except for the Oct school holidays at the end of the summer season when all of a sudden we would have a plethora of them. Then they'd disappear again.

[Buster the Bear]

TUI to base a B737-800 for next summer.

[VickersVicount]

presumably this replaces ASL and will be part based with GLA?

[CaptainDoony]

Yes, the based TUI metal 738 has been known about for a while (current LTN based machine coming up North)

What is new (and being far away, subject to change) is that the initial W18 plans suggest the ABZ summer base continuing for the winter.

Below is an example from the TUI website:

TOM 1346
Aberdeen (ABZ)
Tenerife South (TFS)
WED 05 DEC
08:45
13:35
Direct: 4 hrs 50 min

TOM 1347
Tenerife South (TFS)
Aberdeen (ABZ)
WED 12 DEC
14:50
19:35
Direct: 4 hrs 45 min

The timings suggest a possible ABZ based aircraft but currently only the usual 2x weekly TFS rotations are bookable. Will be something to keep an eye on. Difficult to imagine there being enough pickings to go around in the winter months to keep a based unit busy enough though.

[Richard Taylor]

Can't see it reported now but Oct 2017 fixed wing passengers up 4.4% vs. Oct 2016.

A ~3% drop in heli passengers over the same timeframe.

[TWS04]

The ABZ base possibility is also a query for NWI as the times being shown for winter 18/19 also seem to suggest a start/finish in NWI. Could it be that the same a/c positions between different regional airports for the winter or would that be too commercially unviable?

[inOban]

The EDI-based 738 has no rotation on Wednesdays in winter. Maybe it operates this TFS flight?

[Mister Geezer]

TUI now advertising for ABZ based cabin crew for next summer:

TUI Cabin Crew - Aberdeen | TUI Group (http://www.tuitravelplc.com/careers/apply/39510)

[CaptainDoony]

I note from the Glasgow thread they are losing their GDN service with Wizz scaling back big time on their UK regions ops.

Looks like ABZ-GDN is staying and will be twice weekly as already known but ABZ-WAW is dropped from 19th January.

My anecdotal evidence is I flew back on the A321 GDN-ABZ a couple of weeks ago and it was rammed with 214/230 seats filled. WAW outbound less busy with 151/180 taken.

Thanks Brexit :mad:

[Richard Taylor]

Great shame about Warsaw, especially as it seems from that figure the loads were decent - 151 isn't shabby, of course don't know about yield.

Still - Better Together over the cliff.

[CaptainDoony]

Confirmed that BE/T3 dropping their LSI routes from ABZ, GLA, EDI due to “poor passenger numbers” effective 8th January.

The ABZ-KOI service will continue.

[GLAEDI]

It looks like Eastern/Flybe blinked first. Well it’s the most expensive time of the year Jan/Feb with WX delays and low pax numbers, so makes sense if you’re going to bail out. I wander how much cash was wasted with pissing contest!

[Facts R Us]

There’s a bigger shock coming just around the corner as well...

[HH6702]

Which
Is ?

[RAFAT]

Hopefully it's the cessation of the Flybe/Eastern tie-up.

[Richard Taylor]

Assuming the 'shock' isn't the end of Flybe as I've seen rumoured (without foundation so far), it seems they intend to develop services at KOI, including the possibility of basing aircraft there for earlier morning departures. They say 'watch' this space but there may be more than one space we will have to watch.

[Richard Taylor]

Aberdeen International Airport traffic continues to rise - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-42308994)

Nice increases in both domestic & international fixed-wing.

Helicopters continue to be depressed - I suspect permanently.

[Plane.Silly]

Until the price of oil hikes up again, then more rigs will re-open, requiring helicopter transfers. Continue to be depressed - yes. permanently - no

[Porrohman]

There was more good news from Hurricane Energy yesterday although you probably won't have heard if you get your news from the mainstream media. The BBC, for example, chose to ignore or hide the story and instead ran one about the Forties pipeline being shut down for repairs for three weeks.

Here's what Proactive Investors had to say about Hurricane's news;

The new competent persons report assessed all Hurricane’s assets except for its most advanced, the Lancaster field, and it confirmed what many in the market had hoped for - that Hurricane’s successful drill campaign unearthed an awful lot of oil.

New discoveries Halifax and Lincoln have been estimated to host 1.23bn and 604mln barrels of crude respectively, whereas the untested (but substantially de-risked) Warwick prospect is estimated to contain a potential 935mln barrels.

Including Lancaster, which was in May estimated to have 523mln barrels of recoverable resources, the new assessment take the group’s total inventory increasing 231% to 2.6bn barrels oil equivalent.

Source; Hurricane Energy Plc shares advance as oil inventory rises to 2.6bn barrels (http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/188598/hurricane-energy-shares-advance-as-oil-inventory-rises-to-26bn-barrels-188598.html)

If you read the various CPRs on the Hurricane Energy website, the aggregate estimates of oil in place for their various licenses west of Shetland range from 8.9bn to 26.3bn barrels. The CPR also notes that if the Lincoln and Warwick fields turn out to be a single large accumulation, which looks to be quite likely, these estimates would rise further.

It remains to be seen how much of this oil can be economically extracted but, to put these figures into some kind of context, total recoverable reserves from the whole of Scotland were estimated by the OBR and some of the mainstream media to be 10bn and 3bn barrels respectively just before the independence referendum.

With modern drilling and extraction techniques, it's not unusual for large fields to yield up to 80% of their oil initially in place in the fullness of time so Hurricane Energy is definitely worth keeping a close eye on.

These discoveries won't make a significant difference for Aberdeen in the short term. There will be some traffic when the Early Production System starts to be installed next year but full scale production is unlikely before the mid 2020s. That said, these finds look likely to warrant a lot more drilling in order to better understand the reservoirs. Such drilling could happen relatively soon, especially if Hurricane manages to sell its Tempest and Typhoon licenses to generate some early cash. There are lots of drilling rigs available at attractive rates at present, even though the market is starting to pick up.

[Richard Taylor]

Angry passengers forced to abandon luggage at Aberdeen Airport after lack of staff leaves cases stuck on plane - Daily Record (http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/angry-passengers-forced-abandon-luggage-11709469)

Sounds all rather farcical although not sure Swissport can do much about mother nature.

[SWBKCB]

How did poor weather affect this? Flight delayed by the weather and nobody on shift to unload or another reason?

[Richard Taylor]

We've had some snow up here which was still lying Fri, but ice was the main hazard - police were telling people not to travel unless absolutely necessary.

But how someone was able to clamber onto the carousel is beyond me.

[CaptainDoony]

I know BA are densifying their fleet but 200 pax on an A319 is impressive.

Swissport have won the Flybe handling contract at ABZ and I’m starting to wonder if they are biting off more than they can chew currently? I had a 30 minute wait for steps and a GPU last Friday evening after arriving from LSI. There was also a similar wait prior to leaving ABZ.

[canberra97]

Where are you getting the idea that BA will have 200 pax on a A319?

Maximum passenger capacity of a BA A319 is 144 pax, as far as I am aware they are not being densified compared to the A320/321's.

[fjencl]

Perhaps from the posted news article ?

Angry passengers forced to abandon luggage at Aberdeen Airport after lack of staff leaves cases stuck on plane - Daily Record (http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/angry-passengers-forced-abandon-luggage-11709469)

[Richard Taylor]

I must admit 200 on a 319 does sound like a tight squeeze even if they were densifying them! Sounds more 321 material or 320 at a push.

Speaking of LHR, how are Flybe getting on with their service?

[canberra97]

Well the article is clearly wrong as no way do BA seat 200 passengers on a A319.

If you want to believe the DAILY RECORD do so but if you want the facts go to thebasource.com!

[Callum Paterson]

Hmmm I detect a serious sense of sarcasm by-pass. 😂

[CaptainDoony]

Looks like Flybe will putting the Eastern Embraer 170 (which they're presumably tied into) on the LCY run, BHD Days 1-5 and a MAN run on Day 7.

[canberra97]

Hmmm I detect a serious sense of sarcasm by-pass. 😂

I'm one of the most sarcastic and condescending people your ever meet so I hope that the sarcasm by-pass comment is not aimed at me!

[LBIA]

Looks like Flybe are also putting the Eastern Saab 2000 on quite a few weekday SOU-LBA-ABZ rotations next summer.

[Richard Taylor]

I did wonder whether Flybe might put the Eastern 170 on the LHR run, but good to see for now they have retained both London routes - I had wondered when LHR started whether it would spell the end of LCY, but seems not so far.

I assume the S2000 is spare now that the ATR72-600 operates some SCS rotations.

[Heathrow Harry]

Porrohman

Hurricane employ around 20 people.. most of the costruction work is in the Far East

[Porrohman]

Harry, Hurricane are an exploration company and subcontract virtually all their work including drilling. Some of it goes to to more local subcontractors. If the amount of oil that can be recovered from its portfolio is even 10% of the oil initially in place it will support thousands of UK jobs for many decades but it won't be Hurricane that is the producer. Instead, they will farm the fields to companies that have the capital and experience to carry out full field development.

You raise an interesting point though about the extent to which oil and gas infrastructure is subcontracted from the UK to various overseas countries. Why is it that Norway still has a thriving shipbuilding and fabrication industry and the UK imports so much? Perhaps it is because Norway has a range of government policies that encourage such activities and the UK doesn't? Perhaps it's also because Norway still has substantial state ownesrship of its oil and gas industry and the UK privatised?

[Heathrow Harry]

Indeed - Norwegians pay much higher taxes and their Govt supports all sorts of things (including growing apples!)

The British Govt gave up on shipbuilding (and supporting the motor industry) as it was uncompetitive, a $$$ sink and run by idiotic managers and neanderthal unions

[Richard Taylor]

From Airlineroute & also appears on the TUI thread:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/276330/tui-airways-uk-outlines-new-routes-in-s18/

Is this story new or out of date as I thought Bourgas had been listed then dropped in favour of another Palma. Is Reus new or was it previously announced?

[CaptainDoony]

Routes Online playing catch up, at least in ABZ’s case

REU was announced a good while ago - Sunday AM rotation before the TFS in the PM.

BOJ was dropped quickly as we know, replaced with PMI and now the PMI is gone! DLM has been retimed to early doors departure out of ABZ with return arriving back in ABZ 0330 Friday morning. Not sure where the W will be to in between.

Also means no extra frequencies, just the capacity bump B73G —> B738

[Richard Taylor]

Durham Tees Valley Airport to Norwich flights to be scrapped while Aberdeen will be changed - Gazette Live (http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/business/business-news/durham-tees-valley-airport-norwich-14073702)

Seems LOG happy with the initial take up of the MME route, although they are to drop the MME-NWI service.

'Service enhancements' on the ABZ-MME run (aka re-timings!). :O

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/faster-flights-from-aberdeen-as-airline-operator-amends-schedule/

Confirmation now in the local press:

i. Eastern E170 replacing the DHC8 on the LCY route;
ii. new early morning KOI-ABZ rotation 2w (Wed/Thu) wef 10Jan.

[fjencl]

Maybe they can replace the dash8 from the ABZ - LHR - ABZ with the embraer 170 as well in the future.

embraer is more comfortable than the dash8

[Richard Taylor]

Noticed in other threads comments that KLM had reduced some freqs at certain UK airports.

S17 here had 4 return flights M-F with temporarily a 5th reinstated for part of the summer.

S18 looks like 4 return flights as far as I can tell, no signs of a 5th this year so far, unless I've missed it.

Here's hoping for continued growth in 2018, continuing the recovery that took root in 2017. But economic factors - and Brexit - may have a say.

ps. Interesting BA have a full programme f/t LHR today - I recall the days the airport was shut on NYD!

[BAladdy]

According to flybe website the E170 is gonna be used to operate the following flights from next week:

Monday to Friday

BE1361 ABZ 07:25 LCY 09:05
BE1362 LCY 09:35 ABZ 11:05
BE153 ABZ 11:55 BHD 12:55
BE154 BHD 13:20 ABZ 14:20
BE1365 ABZ 17:20 LCY 19:00
BE1366 LCY 19:30 ABZ 21:00

Saturday

BE153 ABZ 11:25 BHD 12:25
BE154 BHD 12:50 ABZ 13:50

Sunday

BE1036 ABZ 12:55 MAN 14:05
BE1037 MAN 14:30 ABZ 15:45
BE1365 ABZ 17:20 LCY 19:00
BE1366 LCY 19:30 ABZ 21:00

[Plane.Silly]

why would you bother just with 1 rotation on Sat? Surely there's time to operate at least 1 other somewhere?

[BAladdy]

why would you bother just with 1 rotation on Sat? Surely there's time to operate at least 1 other somewhere?

I thought the same when I saw that it was doing the one rotation on the Saturday. It could rotation in on a Sunday am maybe the early LHR rotation

[BAladdy]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/faster-flights-from-aberdeen-as-airline-operator-amends-schedule/

Confirmation now in the local press:

i. Eastern E170 replacing the DHC8 on the LCY route;
ii. new early morning KOI-ABZ rotation 2w (Wed/Thu) wef 10Jan.
Looks like the E70 operating the the LCY and BHD route is only a temporary thing as flights from 25MAR are showing as being operated by a DHC8.

[Richard Taylor]

Donald Milne dead: Rally champion who was Colin McRae's mentor dies in horror air crash after plane collides with helicopter - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/donald-milne-dead-rally-champion-11789040)

There is a historical Aberdeen connection to this tragic fatality in Spain the other day.

Donald Milne ran Apex Tubulars, & I recall he had a Hughes or the use of one (N252JP) that he used to fly between Banchory & Apex T in Altens in the 80s. I think I have a pic of it on the apron at what was the Hawk Hangar in the 90s.

He also flew Cessna 425 N425TV which also lived on that side of the airfield. I recall his wheels-up landing too that the article mentions.

He also had a military plane (Jet Provost?) but I cannot recall if it ever made an appearance at Dyce.

Clearly an all-action guy that loved life .

[CaptainDoony]

Would appear EasySwiss must be happy with the Geneva performance this year as they have made a late addition to the schedule with it now extended into April with twice weekly evening departures.

I do believe loads have been considerably higher than last year - the Wednesday flight really struggled last year - one rotation last January had just 20 pax

[canberra97]

EasyJet Swiss have made the same extension to several other routes to Geneva from the United Kingdom including Bournemouth and their recent addition of Southampton so it's not just Aberdeen that's seeing the season extended into April.

[simfly]

Not at work at the airport this week, but I believe there's a sikorsky sky crane been operating in the Keith area helping with wind farm stuff. Hope someone gets some snaps..

[Heathrow Harry]

https://www.pprune.org/spectators-balcony-spotters-corner/603845-sikorsky-s-64-skycrane-abz.html#post10014265

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/new-routes-help-passenger-numbers-soar-at-city-airport/

Obviously some routes will be better than others, but encouraging overall nevertheless.

Think that Skycrane lives on site for the duration of its contract, rather than overnighting at ABZ. Would make for an interesting movement for sure.

[fjencl]

Does anybody have the full list of TUI routes and what days they are operating out of ABZ this summer..........thanks .

[A320.b744]

Corfu (CFU) - Friday
Dalaman (DLM) - Thursday
Ibiza (IBZ) - Wednesday
Gran Canaria (LPA) - Monday
Palma de Mallorca (PMI) - Monday, Tuesday, Saturday
Reus (REU) - Sunday
Tenerife South (TFS) - Sunday

[CaptainDoony]

Rumour circulating that Frankfurt is dropped from the end of the Winter season.

Still bookable but the source is certain that it is a goner.

Hopefully KLM & AF can do something if it is the case.

[Facts R Us]

See post #50.

[Richard Taylor]

Not sure how much of a shock it is really though. I was surprised when LH dropped FRA-SVG due to the downturn that the ABZ route didn't follow at the same time. Fair play to LH for trying everything to maintain it but if the demand is no longer there.......

One wonders how long some of the other routes (KEF, CPH) will last.

[Richard Taylor]

Something a wee bit different anyway, if it gets off the ground so to speak...

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/north-east/1393554/world-first-flight-school-for-wounded-veterans-to-soon-be-off-the-ground-in-north-east/

[NorthSouth]

Hmmm, training a tiny niche market of students at an airfield with a solid track record of progressively failing to sustain any sort of ab initio training operation.

Good luck with that one.

[NOP]

Rumour circulating that Frankfurt is dropped from the end of the Winter season.

Still bookable but the source is certain that it is a goner.

Hopefully KLM & AF can do something if it is the case.

Perhaps Flybe may be interested in it with an Eastern 170? Or could bmi take it over with a 145 and codeshare for LH?

[CaptainDoony]

I've done ABZ-FRA a number of times and there has never been more than a handful of FRA terminating pax, always a stream up the escalators to flight connections. BM do BRS-FRA with a LH tie-in but I just can't see anyone taking it up.

Best bet for ABZ is for KLM and AF to go back up to 5x & 3x daily respectively and that will fill the capacity void being created. An extra 737 & E170 daily is all it will take to replace LH (I know that's not quite exactly how it works!)

[Porrohman]

Aberdeen sees 85% increase in office space take-up

Source; https://sbnn.co.uk/2018/01/18/aberdeen-sees-85-increase-in-office-space-take-up/

Hopefully, this will also help Aberdeen Airport.

[LGWAlan]

confirmation in writing from LH:

Lufthansa German Airlines has decided to suspend its operations on the route Aberdeen - Frankfurt as from 25 March 2018. The last flight from Aberdeen to Frankfurt will take off from Aberdeen International Airport on that day.

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1396340/massive-blow-german-airline-lufthansa-axes-aberdeen-frankfurt-route/

Made it to the local press. Won't see them again at ABZ. Will we see direct to Germany again?

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/chc-in-6m-redevelopment-project-of-aberdeen-facilities/

Some slightly better news on the helicopter front.

[Mister Geezer]

Sad to see LH going but I am not not really surprised. I have used them a lot since they started and there seems to have been a gradual decline in demand over time. I have to commend LH on their perseverance after they carried their winter schedule forward into summer last year coupled with the continuation of the E190 in lieu of the 319 but seeing both of these changes was never a good sign. Also having the lunchtime inbound sit on the ground in Aberdeen for a few hours, also prevented that aircraft from being potentially used for an extra sector or two as well, which was never conducive to making it an efficient route. I hope they may return to ABZ one day, as I personally think FRA beats the other hubs hands down and the LH product is very consistent and more than adequate for short haul at least.

AF are also going from three flights a day to two for Summer 2018.

My crude maths makes that around 270 less seats in total.

[CaptainDoony]

Air France were twice daily last summer so the same on a like for like basis. They only returned to three daily for this Winter.

And, to add to a truly disastrous week for ABZ, BMI are binning the NWI route effective 11/02/18.

What next?

[Callum Paterson]

Next? The complete withdraw from a low cost airline using bright pink and purple aircraft flying to Poland.

[Richard Taylor]

Hmm... would Loganair look at NWI? Wonder how long before bmi bin ABZ altogether?

[Richard Taylor]

Yes, I could see that Callum.

[SWBKCB]

Hmm... would Loganair look at NWI? Wonder how long before bmi bin ABZ altogether?

As they are in the same group, you'd have thought there would have been a transfer of operator if it was to continue.

[Richard Taylor]

ABERDEEN 643 688 -6.54

From the NCL thread & the Dec 2017 stats posted there.

Hardly seems worth it now.

I could actually see domestics being pared right back to London, MAN, BHX, maybe Belfast plus of course the N Isles. The rest could disappear.

[CaptainDoony]

The CAA stats ex-ABZ are hideously unreliable when it comes to flights with stops, in this case the ABZ-NCL continues onto CWL once a day so the figure of 643 is probably ABZ-CWL. NCL reports 1202 (a slight gain)

Same story with MME, ABZ reports 1012 (!), MME reports a more reasonable 2383.

Two figures that aren’t wrong are ALC & AGP, 72% & 70% respectively - very poor - miles below the almost ridiculous 95% RYR December network wide average. At least the first 10 months performance appear to have been good by all accounts. I don’t think January will be great either, I saw a ALC-ABZ sector being punted for €5 a couple of weeks ago!

[CaptainDoony]

The last remaining Island bunfight is over, BE/T3 to cease KOI eff 4/3.

Price war to end on Scottish island routes - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-42945584)

However, ABZ-SYY to increase to twice daily M-F.

[fjencl]

What sort of aircraft is used on the ABZ - SYY - ABZ route, are the pax figures high enough to sustain it at twice a day.

[NorthSouth]

Jetstream 41

[Garioch Flyer]

Hi all,

Anybody hear of potential Norwegian coming to the ABZ?

Seen the name come up around the airfield.

[CaptainDoony]

We periodically hear rumours with Jet2 and ABZ, obviously nothing has ever come of it. What side of the fence is the rumour on?

[Garioch Flyer]

The rumour is airside currently.

[fjencl]

How many based SAAB 2000's does eastern airways have at Aberdeen and what routes do they operate them on.

[Richard Taylor]

(from Evening Express website):

Aberdeen Airport saw a 6.4% rise in passengers last month, compared with January 2017 – recording a total of 220,427 travellers.
The rise came as a result of an 8.8% increase in domestic traffic and a 10.8% increase in international traffic thanks in part to the popularity of winter sun routes.
Helicopter traffic decreased by 11.1% compared with January 2017.
Aberdeen’s managing director Carol Benzie said: “Starting 2018 with these encouraging figures, we are now looking forward to the launch of two new leisure routes in the coming months, Malta and Reus, which, we hope, will be as well received and popular as our existing route offerings.”

fjencl: Not sure how many based S2000s there are at ABZ. Going by previous oil industry requirements there were usually 3 aircraft + one spare but not sure what it's like these days... I'm going back to the days of British Airferries when it used to be 3 Viscounts!! Plus a 2nd ATR72-600 is due this month (if it hasn't already arrived to join the other one) so that will take over some of the S2000 flying duties. Elsewhere, they can pop up on the network at any time but usually on NWI, but that may be about to change now bmi have pulled out of the route & are supposed to be wet-leasing an E135/145 (can't remember which) to T3 to operate the route.

Noticeable the international growth is being put down to the sun routes, changed days indeed.

[Porrohman]

Out of interest, how has the number of based helicopters and number of helicopter passengers changed over the decades at Aberdeen? Perhaps a chart of these statistics would give a good correlation with the state of health, and illustrate the long-term volatility, of the offshore industry? A comparison with similar statistics from Norway would be interesting.

Have similar trends happened with helicopter traffic from Shetland or have recent oil and gas developments nearer to Shetland resulted in the proportion of traffic from Aberdeen and Shetland shifting North? Or have longer range helicopters negated any such affect?

I'm hoping someone can point me to industry statistics that will objectively quantify some of these issues.

Quite a significant increase in exploration has been forecast by industry experts so perhaps the offshore related traffic from Aberdeen will start to recover, or at least bottom out, this year.

[fjencl]

https://buyingbusinesstravel.com/news/1228412-eastern-airways-adds-sunday-service-aberdeen-wick-route

[inOban]

Porrohman

I recall that press releases from the airport have highlighted the fact that the northward shift in exploration underlay the fall in helicopter movements. There should have been a corresponding increase in such flights from the various helicopter bases on Shetland.

[ATIS31]

https://buyingbusinesstravel.com/news/1228412-eastern-airways-adds-sunday-service-aberdeen-wick-route

Can hardly run the weekday flights as it is ! Morning flights sometimes 2 hrs late Some Flights cancelled. Possibly trying to compete with the Sunday service that Loganair operate to Edinburgh which is quite popular

[01475]

Well obviously they would say that.

An airline would get into trouble with the authorities if they said "Here to cause pain to an unwelcome competitor until they get their something tanks off our lawn".

[A320.b744]

Air Iceland Connect is closing its Keflavik base and disposing of its Q400s, meaning KEF-ABZ will be axed on 14th May. BHD will also be cancelled, as well as domestic services from KEF. It will be interesting to see however if Icelandair do eventually return to Aberdeen with the B737 MAX. The use of the Q400 will definitely have had a negative impact on the route's success.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/64466-air-iceland-connect-to-cut-fleet-quit-uk

https://worldairlinenews.com/2018/02/16/air-iceland-connect-to-drop-flights-from-keflavik-including-the-uk/

[ABZ FLYER]

When it comes to the B787 is ABZ in a position, in terms of runway length, stands and taxiway, to accommodate it? I know stands 1A and 7 are equipped up to B767-300, but wasn’t sure if ABZ have factored in the newer wide body aircraft in their plans.

The reason I ask is surely with the likes of CWL having secured a daily QR 787 service to DOH with a catchment area similar to that of the North East, then surely ABZ even with the current economy could sustain a 3 to 4 weekly flight to the Middle East.

It really hasn’t been the best start to the year for ABZ, apart from the rumblings of Norwegian is there any other likely additions (apart from FR)?

[GLAEDI]

If you look at the Cardiff page the flight hasn’t set the heather on fire down there. Also QR is still trying to establish itself at EDI so any ABZ flights might be some time away. I know they are looking at smaller aircraft from Airbus so maybe then but out of Scotland we already have 2x daily B777 EK out of GLA & 10x weekly approx EY/QR on B787/A330 out of EDI. Also LH packing up in ABZ isn’t a good advert for the airport. Yes physically a B787 can operate but economics I suggest isn’t there without harming AF/KLM.

[Richard Taylor]

I would suggest ABZ is always one step forward and three steps back.

I've never been a fan of ABZ management, going right back to BAA days. However I'm not without sympathy for them.

It's been a constant theme for NE Scotland especially - use it, or lose it.

Not enough use it - so they lose it.

All very well asking for links here, there, everywhere but when provided if it isn't used, then they cannot moan when the link is axed. Airlines cannot make a profit transporting thin air.

Again it points to the oil industry, and the price of a barrel... & the lack of diversification, even now.

We've lost various competing domestics, plus Gdansk, Frankfurt and now Reykjavik since the start of the year - and I suspect more to follow. Plus reductions in frequencies on others. And we're not even at Brexit point yet!

[CaptainDoony]

What I have found surprising is that it has taken this long for routes to start dropping. The economy up here started to get hammered at the start of 2015 and now we are in 2018 and have only just started to see routes being cut entirely (ironic as things perhaps seem to be getting a bit better in the last 6-9 months)

MME - Loganair
KOI - Flybe
LSI - Flybe

These three I wouldn't consider of ABZ's doing, the very public handbags/willy waving we all know about has taken care of these.

WAW & KEF both only launched Mid-2016 so some'll work, some won't. (Gdansk lives on btw)

NWI has been overcapacity for a while, the days of 4-way bunfights on SVG are gone, 3x daily with Eastern has got to be more sustainable in the long run?

FRA is a disaster. Also, the lost capacity is not being filled, BA overall are a frequency down to LHR daily and KL & AF sticking with 4x & 2x daily. Perhaps if things remain stable-ish this year we will see some frequencies returning next year.

apart from the rumblings of Norwegian is there any other likely additions (apart from FR)?

Unconfirmed, but even things aren't great with their new best mates by the looks of things

All bad news sadly though, FR have launched their W18 schedule and AGP is missing from the release. All other UK airports have AGP loaded, except ABZ & GLA (which only has DUB showing so far).

I would hesitate to say it is going seasonal yet but given the loads were really bad in Dec (and I think January will be about the same), just 70%, I'm not filled with optimism. ALC is there though. Summer performance was good so could only see it going seasonal at worst. Will have to wait for confirmation on that.

Finally, I don't think Brexit is going to have a lasting impact on UK-EU aviation, at worst a few teething problems...

2018 is going to be a bad one for ABZ, 2019 might be better :sad:

[5711N0205W]

Working for a large O&G related engineering company next year is going to be better has been the refrain for the last three years... In fact things are starting to look a little more positive in some areas than previously though 2018 still isn't going to be great. I know the numbers we have travelling are down about 40% on 3 years ago. The Iceland connection potentially offered another option over the Atlantic, didn't really work well into Houston though when compared with AF/KLM, BA and formerly LH. It will be interesting to see what effect the removal of LH has on the pricing of that route and also to Brazil where there is a bit of traffic too.

Leisure wise, this year for summer hols we will be cashing in some air miles and travelling ex ABZ to Europe via AMS, last two have been from EDI with EasyJet to destinations that the Aberdeen catchment area just can't sustain. Some holiday routes have their sweet spot and can sustain one or two rotations a week, beyond that I can't see much that could be sustainable.

[Richard Taylor]

Sorry Capt D, yes I meant Warsaw, rather than Gdansk.

It's painful stuff at the moment though.

I can see one of the competing Oslo's, Copenhagen maybe even Esbjerg going.

All this after a shiny terminal extension too!

5711 is also correct re catchment area, which leads me to ask - where is the market for inbound tourism as a growing market? Who is promoting the NE Scotland and can it be done any better? We've never been a tourist magnet which is a pity considering the scenery, castles, whisky trail, golf etc... or are we getting the level of tourists we deserve? Tourism is supposed to be one of the areas the region is trying to diversify into. We have an airport, not a perfect one, but an airport nevertheless. Weather could be better but... you don't holiday in Scotland for the weather- at least I don't!

[SealinkBF]

Can hardly run the weekday flights as it is ! Morning flights sometimes 2 hrs late Some Flights cancelled. Possibly trying to compete with the Sunday service that Loganair operate to Edinburgh which is quite popular

Loganair have had a Sunday service for donkeys years though.
Eastern fares are just insanely high, and now you don't even get a free drink.
I'm sure Eastern or maybe Gill tried a Sunday service many years back and it didn't last.

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/20-million-airport-renovation-takes-step-forward-with-new-security-hall/

[Heathrow Harry]

and the Bypass might open sometime as well!!

[fjencl]

Is Eastern Airways operating there 2nd ATR72-600 at Aberdeen yet......

[Fly757X]

It hasn't arrived yet.

[SWBKCB]

Is Eastern Airways operating there 2nd ATR72-600 at Aberdeen yet......

Being delivered this morning.

[Mister Geezer]

Evening Express - Ryanair scrap Aberdeen winter flights to Malaga (https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/ryanair-scrap-aberdeen-winter-flights-malaga/)

Yet more news to warm the cockles of one's heart! :}

[GLAEDI]

Did FR want something AGS didn’t want to provide? New management team at AGS but it still seems that Dewar is creating better environment for airlines at EDI.

[fjencl]

Now that eastern airways have two atr72-600 do they just operate on the Aberdeen to scatsta to Aberdeen services only.

[CaptainDoony]

Is LCY this weeks route for the chop?

Not bookable beyond October... Total of 8 routes gone this year (9 if you count AGP going seasonal)

[Richard Taylor]

They'll be knocking down the terminal at this rate! :}

[SealinkBF]

Is LCY this weeks route for the chop?

Not bookable beyond October... Total of 8 routes gone this year (9 if you count AGP going seasonal)

Curiouser and curiouser ... Winter 18/19 on sale, but ABZ LCY flights greyed out with "Full or not enough seats".

[Richard Taylor]

It'll be part of the cull BE are undertaking to save money, right across their network. Did seem strange they were flying both LHR & LCY.

But ABZ does really need some good news as it's been unremitting gloom so far in 2018.

[Heathrow Harry]

LHR is a lot of connecting traffic


LCY is business folk - tells you a lot about the state of business in Aberdeen.............

[CaptainDoony]

LCY now on sale for W18 so spoke too soon, which is good of course!

Latest rumour doing the rounds is that GDN will be binned at the end of the summer season despite the year round loads in excess of 95%. I do wonder if FR could be interested in Eastern Europe routes at some time - they have the bases

[Heathrow Harry]

Still not over... from the BBC


Up to 250 jobs are expected to go at Total in Aberdeen following its takeover of Maersk Oil. French energy company Total agreed to buy Maersk's oil business in a $7.45bn (£5.8bn) deal (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-40999396) last year.


Total said it was consulting with its workforce and would try to find those affected jobs in other locations. Staff and contractors are involved.


Total said it had reviewed its operations in Aberdeen after the acquisition.
It is understood all the posts which are going are onshore and based in Aberdeen.
Staff and contractors were informed of the move last week.
It is believed the move will leave Total with about 1,250 workers in Aberdeen.

[nighthawk117]

Still not over... from the BBC




Two companies have merged, and they're looking to cut duplicated roles. Fairly standard.

[Heathrow Harry]

but another 250 well paid jobs gone

sure ...... when times are good they'd all get jobs v quickly - but now???

[Porrohman]

There is an increasing skills shortage in the Scottish oil and gas industry. Many of those who left the industry during the recent downturn were older workers and contractors who are unlikely to return. For many years now, the industry has not been training enough workers. The workforce is ageing and the industry body Oil and Gas UK is predicting an upturn in employment. Production is up 20% in recent years and the oil price has stabilised in the $60-$70 range.

What we have witnessed in recent years is yet another of the many boom and bust cycles caused by UK Government policies to privatise the oil and gas assets and then play an endless game of cat and mouse with the industry on taxes and incentives. The Norwegian model of retaining substantial state ownership, which is something that the overwhelming majority of other oil producing countries have done, helps to smooth the peaks and troughs by taking a long term rather than short term outlook. It is also considerably more efficient, and therefore profitable, because infrastructure can more easily be shared between adjacent fields without requiring complex inter-company agreements at prohibitively high prices.

[Heathrow Harry]

"another of the many boom and bust cycles caused by UK Government policies"

Good God - so the Oil Price had nothing to with it?

It's very hard to fire anyone in Norway - which is why companies try to avoid hiring there in the first place...... and I'mnot sure anyone who has worked there would suggest Norway is "more efficient" than the UK - lots more paperwork and interference is my experience.......

[Richard Taylor]

Airline unhappy with Aberdeen Airport facilities | Shetland News (http://www.shetnews.co.uk/news/16079-airline-unhappy-with-aberdeen-airport-facilities)

Or at least the bittie they are confined to.......

[Heathrow Harry]

see the mythical By-Pass has gone back again......... I've been waiting 50 years for it..........

[Richard Taylor]

I understand that's the last LH flight to FRA not long departed.

Will we ever see it - and them - return?

Hope so... but doubt it.

[VickersVicount]

if the GLA-FRA flight flops again then you can maybe have it back then...

[Richard Taylor]

Rhodes.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/new-flights-launched-from-aberdeen-to-popular-greek-resort1/

A wee bit of good news anyway, for S19

[Richard Taylor]

The following changes are to be implemented at ABZ due the ongoing economic downturn - as I understand it:

* the facilities and side stands at the main terminal to be closed & 'returned to nature' (presume that means all infrastructure dismantled & grassed over)
* the concrete/asphalt on runway 23/05 on the east side to be grassed over
* similarly runway 32/14 to be grassed over

Seems airport think cutting grass may be a money saver instead of maintaining infrastructure - only the airport wildlife will be pleased at this news.

[liam4393]

Think you’re wrong about the side stands of the terminal being dismantled and returned to nature. My understanding is that this is where the triple airbridge is about to be built to accommodate the three daily EK A380 flights to DXB starting 01 April 2019 :ok:

[ericlday]

Changes ?.......remind of the date again !!!!!

[Richard Taylor]

Think you’re wrong about the side stands of the terminal being dismantled and returned to nature. My understanding is that this is where the triple airbridge is about to be built to accommodate the three daily EK A380 flights to DXB starting 01 April 2019 :ok:

I'm not greedy... double daily will do!! :}

[CabinCrewe]

...or even just an ABZ thread post? :)

[Richard Taylor]

OK, this from earlier this week:

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/new-flights-launched-by-airline-for-summer1/

"Flybe has launched its new early morning flights from Aberdeen International Airport to London Heathrow as part of its 2018 summer schedule."

I could have sworn that when launched Flybe DID have an early morning departure to LHR - must have imagined it.

[Flightrider]

Suspect this is a case of Chinese Whispers and the press release actually refers to additional flights on Sunday mornings, not every morning?

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/pilot-aborts-landing-at-aberdeen-airport-due-to-weather-conditions1/

Can't recall what the weather conditions were like 28/3 but I think there was one day last week that it was bla'ing a hooly.

Better safe than sorry, but interesting apparent remark by one of the pilots about the runway being 'too short'... just like the good old days.

[NorthSouth]

Yes, runways are generally too short if you land too far along them :rolleyes:

[koninckske]

VLM Airlines starting 3 weekly Antwerp to Aberdeen route from 4 June 2018.

[stewyb]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/pilot-aborts-landing-at-aberdeen-airport-due-to-weather-conditions1/

Can't recall what the weather conditions were like 28/3 but I think there was one day last week that it was bla'ing a hooly.

Better safe than sorry, but interesting apparent remark by one of the pilots about the runway being 'too short'... just like the good old days.

Standard procedure, nothing to see here!

[Richard Taylor]

VLM thread saying one service is direct, others via BHX.

Sounds like another Groningen or Esbjerg to me. Specialist oil route, limited demand, why hasn't anyone else tried it before now.

Thought we might get a RTM before ANR.

However will be nice to see VLM here, let's see how they go.

[Heathrow Harry]

What's the oil interest in Antwerp??

[Rossco27]

It’s more renewables and decom out of Antwerp. Lots of heavy lift vessel providers in Antwerp and Rotterdam

[BAladdy]

VLM’s timetable

VO172 ABZ 13:10 ANR 16:10 F50 1
VO174 ABZ 13:10 14:40 BHX 15:10 ANR 17:35 F50 35

VO171 ANR 11:40 ABZ 12:40 F50 135

[Atlantic Explorer]

That’s a long way in a F50! Can’t see this lasting terribly long.

[BAladdy]

T3 will will take over operating BE’s LCY service from 07MAY18. Flights will be operated by a 50 seat S2000 11 x weekly (2 flights on weekdays and 1 flight on Sunday).

Long term T3 plan to replace the S2000 with a E70 (S2000 showing as operating through until at least November)

BE7611 ABZ 07:15 LCY 09:05 S20 x67
BE7616 ABZ 17:10 LCY 19:00 S20 x6

BE7612 LCY 09:35 ABZ 11:10 S20 x67
BE7617 LCY 19:30 ABZ 21:05 S20 x6

Eastern Airways to take over LCY-Aberdeen route | Buying Business Travel (http://buyingbusinesstravel.com/news/0528637-eastern-airways-take-over-lcy-aberdeen-route)

Flights are currently operated by a 78 seat DH4 12 x weekly (2 x daily Mon-Fri & 1 x daily Sat/Sun)

[CaptainDoony]

So effectively BE have dropped LCY and T3 are taking it over.

The lead in fares are also at typical T3 eye-watering levels, £100 o/w (minimum, often even higher!) This is about a 75% premium over other options - who in their right mind would pay that for Eastern’s unreliability which has been discussed ad nauseam???

Also, TUI released S19 schedules today and LPA is dropped in favour of a W with GLA which is surprising as, load wise at least, it has performed well. I wonder if there might be something on a scheduled front in the offing for S19?

The 4th weekly PMI is a 2300-0600 sector on a Saturday evening/Sunday morning in peak season only.

[Richard Taylor]

Doubt we'll ever see them on schedules here (I'm hoping for some reverse psychology!!) but Wideroe's first jet & launch customer for the E190-2 presumably arrived at ABZ on its delivery flight, routing LPA-ABZ-BGO. I've seen shots of it (not at ABZ) & it does look impressive.

[inOban]

I thought they had bought some C series?

[Richard Taylor]

From what I read they looked at CS100 and ruled them too large for their ops.

[The Nutts Mutts]

Looking at the EZY W18/19 release this morning and it appears that the Wednesday GVA flight is gone, only bookable on Saturdays from what I can see.

[Porrohman]

Sumburgh is seeing a significant increase in pax numbers due to increases in oil industry traffic;

Hial highlights growth in passenger numbers at Sumburgh | The Shetland Times Ltd (http://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2018/04/20/hial-highlights-growth-in-passenger-numbers-at-sumburgh)

[inOban]

The whole focus of oil exploration and production is moving north to replace the declining reserves further south.

[Richard Taylor]

They're trying, bless 'em.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-airport-bosses-on-mission-to-secure-new-destinations/

Leeds thread suggests LBA next for the chop.

More positively, Riga flights restarted today for S18.

[BAladdy]

BE flights from ABZ to LBA and SOU operated by T3 are no longer available to book from 03JUN.

[CaptainDoony]

I note that yesterday’s ABZ-MLA has to divert in by BGY for fuel. Near enough a full pax load.

Best to not make a habit of that...

[VickersVicount]

... would you rather the route was scrapped instead?!

[Flightrider]

Surely the point he was making was that if this does become a regular thing, the route will get scrapped. I think only the most blindly optimistic soul would expect Ryanair to keep operating a route that regularly required tech-stops on the way.

[Plane.Silly]

It's only a 4 hr flight, surely there's another reason why it tech-stopped? the 800's can comfortably do Scotland - Canaries, which is almost an hour longer.
Maybe fuel was a cover up for a disruptive pax or medical diversion?

[Heathrow Harry]

(showing his age) - maybe they got green stamps at BGY...............................

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/warning-of-security-delays-as-airport-undergoes-final-phase-of-20-million-transformation/

Love the artist impression, but a tad optimistic I fear!! :O

[Heathrow Harry]

" vast majority are domestic flights, where passengers have less carry-on baggage. "

What world are these people living in............

[Heathrow Harry]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/warning-of-security-delays-as-airport-undergoes-final-phase-of-20-million-transformation/

Love the artist impression, but a tad optimistic I fear!! :O

Firstly it's sunny - clearly the artist has never been there

and from the angle of the shadows this Aberdeen is in the tropics.....................

[Richard Taylor]

1. T3 axing the 2nd SYY flight - insufficient demand (they're reverting to the original freq). Also reductions in the WIC run, same reason.

2. Looks like SAS may be launching a BGO service of their own 5w M-F. Not sure if this is meant to complement the existing WF run, or is in competition with it. Currently WF/SAS code-share on the route.

[ATIS31]

[QUOTE=Richard Taylor;10145948]1. T3 axing the 2nd SYY flight - insufficient demand (they're reverting to the original freq). Also reductions in the WIC run, same reason.

Could be something to do with the ridiculous sky high fares they charge for a unreliable service. Regular flyers leaving WIC on early Monday flight less than impressed !

[Richard Taylor]

ATIS31: Yes, there's always that! Obviously their business model worked when oil prices were high and money was no object, but it perhaps showed up a lack of flexibility when the oil crash occurred. Now oil is >$75 & climbing apparently, so who knows? They are definitely cutting back the scheduled flying though. If they're loss-making, then understandable.

BA have opened their new lounge at ABZ:
https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2018/05/16/british-airways-opens-new-aberdeen-lounge/

The SAS flight to Bergen starts W18, with (at least for now) a B737. It does seem that it is in competition with Wideroe - is their code-sharing coming to an end?

[CaptainDoony]

SAS BGO service could be geared towards cargo rather than pax? Wouldn’t expect great loads on a 9pm departure with the WF service going at a much more optimal 6.40pm daily.

i believe that was the rationale behind the 737 returning to the SVG route as the CRJ 900 isn’t great in that respect. That is also a late departure ex-ABZ.

[FLYAIR10]

First VLM - flight to Antwerp is today.

https://twitter.com/ABZ_Airport

[VickersVicount]

Thats a shame FR dropping AGP- would have thought that would be a staple diet route (and before MLA and FAO), do we expect ALC will get ditched in due course too? No mention on APD on this occassion, surprisingly...

[CaptainDoony]

Thats a shame FR dropping AGP- would have thought that would be a staple diet route (and before MLA and FAO), do we expect ALC will get ditched in due course too? No mention on APD on this occassion, surprisingly...

AGP going seasonal has been known about for some time? Has there been a new development?

[VickersVicount]

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/ryanair-to-downsize-aberdeen-operations/
Just publicised in the media...

[CaptainDoony]

Given that Ryanair’s S19 schedule is still several months away from release, I’m not quite sure how a P&J reporter would know.

I think what’s happened here is that they’ve seen the last rotation at the end of this summer and jumped to the conclusion that the route is binned entirely.

The wording in the article is also exactly as per the original release at the start of March.

I’m calling BS on this one

[Plane mad 134]

Aberdeen airport workers set to go on strike for 24 hours on the 20th of July, 2nd of August and 16th of August over wage issues.

[Callum Paterson]

AGS Airports Group think they are above low cost airlines. With Ryanair cuttng back in a huge, huge way at GLA it almost makes sense that ABZ will follow.

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-44821709

Wonder what is behind this? Maybe she just feels it's the natural end of a cycle & time to do something else. Maybe.

[stewyb]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-44821709

Wonder what is behind this? Maybe she just feels it's the natural end of a cycle & time to do something else. Maybe.

All 3 AGS airports will now have new MD's!

[Richard Taylor]

Suggestions there is a new 'structure' coming at AGS & she wasn't happy about it.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1520980/turbulent-changes-ahead-as-airport-boss-steps-down/

[Richard Taylor]

Interesting movement inbound in the next hour from across the pond:

N767MW (B762), GTI 7755 from Moline, IL.

Wonder what it's here for - maybe picking up the businessmen deposited by the Trump 757 that came in Fri with POTUS son Eck, who was playing a round (of golf!) at Menie.

Or related to The Open taking place at Carnoustie this week.

[CaptainDoony]

Interesting movement inbound in the next hour from across the pond:

N767MW (B762), GTI 7755 from Moline, IL.

Wonder what it's here for - maybe picking up the businessmen deposited by the Trump 757 that came in Fri with POTUS son Eck, who was playing a round (of golf!) at Menie.

Or related to The Open taking place at Carnoustie this week.

in until Sunday for the golf - believe it was at EDI last time the Open was in this neck of the woods.

[Porrohman]

in until Sunday for the golf - believe it was at EDI last time the Open was in this neck of the woods.






Is Leuchars currently an option for movements like this? It is much closer to Carnoustie than ABZ.

Although obviously unsuitable for a B762, I hear a lot of biz jets will be using DND this week for the golf.

[yeo valley]

Interesting movement inbound in the next hour from across the pond:

N767MW (B762), GTI 7755 from Moline, IL.

Wonder what it's here for - maybe picking up the businessmen deposited by the Trump 757 that came in Fri with POTUS son Eck, who was playing a round (of golf!) at Menie.

Or related to The Open taking place at Carnoustie this week.
Im living in Davenport Iowa which is just over the river Mississippi. There is towns on Davenport,Moline,Rock island and .Bettendorf. They have all joined forces and made 1 airport which is named Quad cities. The longest flight each weekis a rotation to MCO.The rest of the services are all inter states. I cant remember when they did a international flight across the pond.Its a nice little airport with 6 airbridges which they don't use very often.The airport would be about the same size of ABZ TY for letting me post a little bit about our Quad cities airport.

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-44864612

[5711N0205W]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-44864612

Which staff are in scope to strike and what potential operational impact might it have?

[Richard Taylor]

Strike averted>>>

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-44871526

[Richard Taylor]

I see in the VLM thread that they are binning Antwerp - Brum shortly. No idea on the figures for ABZ though.

[Xavi22]

I see in the VLM thread that they are binning Antwerp - Brum shortly. No idea on the figures for ABZ though.

From September they increased the prices for one-way pretty much, in August you can book for 59 EUR one-way, in September it starts at 212 EUR.

[VickersVicount]

suspect it will be binned at some stage too.

[Richard Taylor]

Red Arras in town. Maybe searching for a new home now RAF Scampton is being sold off.... plenty room here these days... :8

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1528200/video-and-gallery-the-red-arrows-arrive-in-aberdeen-ahead-of-their-display-in-peterhead-tonight/

Should be displaying up at Peterhead about now.

[Richard Taylor]

Some restoration of lost rotations rather than anything significant, but welcome nonetheless.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/airline-adds-more-flights-from-aberdeen-airport-to-two-popular-destinations/

[Richard Taylor]

Carol Benzie was interviewed before she stepped down last week, & she said some very sobering but realistic things about trying to entice airlines to ABZ. Perhaps things we know already:

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/oil-could-keep-city-flying-high/

1. We - and the airport - still more or less wholly reliant on the oil price to increase business traffic (one wonders where the diversification is, eg. inbound tourism - we are still relying on the business offering);
2. Catchment area insufficient to expect routes to here, there & everywhere (& of course many airlines & routes have come & gone over the years);
3. Looks like the loss of Lufthansa was the biggest blow, but if things pick up again she doesn't rule out them returning some day.... I doubt it myself.

I know the things she said we all likely knew already, but I thought it was an interesting insight nevertheless.

[Heathrow Harry]

"The simple fact is we don’t have enough people living here to justify a low-cost carrier coming in more than they do. They need to fill that aircraft to 96% plus every single time it flies, so in 200-seater aircraft you are looking at 180 people plus every time.We do try really hard but we are up against it as you have European airports all around the place pitching for an aircraft but they might have a population of two million within driving distance of the airport and we have only got 500,000.“It puts us way down the pecking order.”

[AlbaAirNE]

Aberdeen doesn’t have the long term market for Ryanair at 189 seats, they have to juggle and run seasonal on destinations to keep things fresh and in demand.
As 73max and A321neo becomes the norm the ability to fill becomes more difficult @200+ and the aircraft efficiency cannot compensate enough, you then lose the carrier.
The saving for Aberdeen may be one or all the following:
C series / A220 = a right size very efficient aircraft that makes money on lengthy sectors at 125+ seats.
A Mid East carrier (Preferably Etihad or Qatar) coming in with A321LR.
US carrier (Jet Blue) to JFK with A321LR and connections into their network.

Ignoring Brexit and any freedom to travel issues that may arise.
Issue for the long term. In addition the O&G tied market is Aberdeen’s short runway, to me it’s a scandal that the full 300 yards wasn’t laid (it should have been 500) but the owners at the time - Heathrow Holdings - were never due conflict of interest going to let anybody fly any distance direct from Aberdeen other than to Tenerife.

[OntimeexceptACARS]

Anyone have any pax numbers for recent months? Nothing on the official website.

[Richard Taylor]

Seems the airport owners are keeping them from public view. Mind you I don't think AGS publish GLA figures either now. Read into that what you will. Fixed wing overall had been positive of late, but some routes and freqs have been lost since then.

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1533005/aberdeen-international-airport-monthly-passenger-figures-take-hit-for-first-time-since-last-april/

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1532644/thousands-of-people-moved-away-from-the-north-east-last-year/

Loss of Lufthansa & Icelandair (Air Iceland) will take a toll for a while I would think. It's still oil or nothing...………..

[Richard Taylor]

Antwerp to be canned as the operator cuts back scheduled ops.

What a waste of time that was.

[Steviec9]

Antwerp to be canned as the operator cuts back scheduled ops.

What a waste of time that was.
Literally two's of people will be looking for alternatives...

[Richard Taylor]

Local press have only just caught up with the axing of Antwerp. Sadly the problems of VLM ran much deeper than that as the owners have decided to liquidate the airline.

[Richard Taylor]

Couple of things noticed recently....

KLM utilising a F100 on the 2nd AMS flight pretty regularly KL1443/4

Cityjet RJ85 operating the daytime AFR flight for the last few days at least - is that now permanent?

[CaptainDoony]

The Fokker 100, nice to see, is with us for the rest of S18, daily 1-5. AMS also increased to 5x daily M-F coinciding wth the Fokker until end of S18.

The WX RJ is also in covering for Hop’s chronic crew shortage, expected to be until end of summer too. Also loads of cancellation on CDG, nightstopper tonight included

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/plans-for-rail-link-between-aberdeen-airport-and-new-aecc-hit-by-setback1/

Thanks for the info Capt D.

[Richard Taylor]

Don’t know the schedule for this winter, but Wizz to go 3w on GDN with the introduction of a Thurs flight in S19.

[4eyed anorak]

August stats.

A.T.M + 2.6 %
Rolling Year 3,099,426 +2.6%

Regards 4ea

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/183042/north-sea-copter-alliance-adds-aberdeen-airport-for-offshore-wind-rollout/

[Mister Geezer]

It would seem that for the time being at least anyway, a Bulgaria Air 319 is operating exclusively to ABZ on behalf of HOP.

[CaptainDoony]

Until the end of the summer to relieve Hop's major crewing issues.

CDG service has been absolutely abysmal with dozens of cancellations over the summer months. Been no problems since the A319 showed up

[Richard Taylor]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-45801943

Doesn't appear Loganair will step in either, so another link gone.

[Flightrider]

Just wait for the news about London City next...

[Richard Taylor]

Yes, can't be many Aberdeen routes making money these days. Wonder if the owners regret that terminal extension now? 2018 been a pretty grim year.

[fjencl]

What news is coming about London city next .....!!!

[awwdabaaby]

Think it's because Eastern are operating the London City route for Flybe

[Richard Taylor]

Eastern apparently have also cut NCL to just morning & teatime flights. I really do wonder how long before they end schedules altogether.

[Flightrider]

Eastern apparently have also cut NCL to just morning & teatime flights.

That's before the new additional flights are loaded. Those'll be the ones from Aberdeen to London City which will very soon be stopping at Newcastle on the way up and down. Bonkers.

And BA will be cutting ABZ-LHR back next summer as well - BA1310/1311 and 1312/1313 both gone.

[CaptainDoony]

A stop in NCL? Bound to draw the punters in :}

Have had a look at a few random days and months next summer and BA is 8x daily most days I looked. Actually looks like an improvement on this year if anything?

[jensdad]

A stop in NCL? Bound to draw the punters in :}

Good news for my local (NCL) but I agree, it's going to make the ABZ-LCY less attractive.
Depends how long the stop is I suppose: Oh for the days when Air UK F27s used to pop into NCL on the way from ABZ to Norwich, loading and unloading in a few mins while the engines were still running (or is my memory playing tricks on me? It was a while ago :) )

[canberra97]

Good news for my local (NCL) but I agree, it's going to make the ABZ-LCY less attractive.
Depends how long the stop is I suppose: Oh for the days when Air UK F27s used to pop into NCL on the way from ABZ to Norwich, loading and unloading in a few mins while the engines were still running (or is my memory playing tricks on me? It was a while ago :) )

Your be pleased to know that your memory isn't playing tricks with you and if you remember even further back it was Air Anglia doing those flights before Air UK was formed in 1979 by the merger of Air Anglia and BIA.

Dan Air also operated a similar multi stop ''intercity'' service with the HS748.

[jensdad]

... if you remember even further back it was Air Anglia doing those flights before Air UK was formed in 1979 by the merger of Air Anglia and BIA.

Ah yes, I can only just remember seeing an F27 with the black and yellow AQ (was that their 2-letter prefix?) stripes on the fuselage but Air UK logo on the tail. Them were the days :)

[Richard Taylor]

That's before the new additional flights are loaded. Those'll be the ones from Aberdeen to London City which will very soon be stopping at Newcastle on the way up and down. Bonkers.

And BA will be cutting ABZ-LHR back next summer as well - BA1310/1311 and 1312/1313 both gone.

I could see BA1310/11 being dropped but BA1312/13 has been a mainstay of BA LHR schedules for many years - I'd be amazed if they axe that, but it's been a grim period at ABZ so nothing would surprise me.

[Falcon900LX]

Good news for my local (NCL) but I agree, it's going to make the ABZ-LCY less attractive.
Depends how long the stop is I suppose: Oh for the days when Air UK F27s used to pop into NCL on the way from ABZ to Norwich, loading and unloading in a few mins while the engines were still running (or is my memory playing tricks on me? It was a while ago :) )
Max of 25 mins surely.

[oapilot]

On the ground yes, but factor in the approach taxi in and out and departure plus climb to cruise altitude and I’d be amazed if the ABZ LCY time is less than 40 mins longer. More like an hour of it’s on the ATR...

[househunter]

And BA will be cutting ABZ-LHR back next summer as well - BA1310/1311 and 1312/1313 both gone

BA1310/1311 and 1312/1313 are both selling for next summer

[oldart]

Do they still allow aircraft to keep their engines running whilst off loading and loading passengers? Health and safety seems to spring to mind.

[Porrohman]

Do they still allow aircraft to keep their engines running whilst off loading and loading passengers? Health and safety seems to spring to mind.

When I used the Aberdeen - Edinburgh - Leeds - Norwich service in Air Anglia days, one engine kept running during the stops; the opposite sde from the loading and unloading. The noise of the RR Dart made communications between passengers and staff nearly impossible. Everything was done with hand signals. It was a long time ago but ISTR the Darts needed a start cart to get them going so keeping an engine running presumably shortened the turnaround time. The Q400s don't usually need a start cart so there's less need to keep engines running.

[toon22]

There was also a Paris - Newcastle - Aberdeen run on Air Anglia’s F28 in the late ‘70’s. I used it a few times and it was a great run up the coast NCL ABZ. Does my memory fail me if I recall a LGW NCL ABZ routing at weekends with a Dan Air 1-11?

[Richard Taylor]

There was also a Paris - Newcastle - Aberdeen run on Air Anglia’s F28 in the late ‘70’s. I used it a few times and it was a great run up the coast NCL ABZ. Does my memory fail me if I recall a LGW NCL ABZ routing at weekends with a Dan Air 1-11?

Yes, indeed they did.