More pilot shortage articles

[poydras]

Long-Looming Pilot Shortage May Be Near

A worldwide shortage of pilots – forecast for more than 15 years – has so far failed to materialise, but there are worrying signs.

Simulation and training company CAE points out that US regional carriers, seen as a source of pilots by the majors, cannot expand and often have to drop schedules or routes because they cannot crew their aircraft. That is despite the fact that carriers can draw on a supply of pilots furloughed during recent economic downturns. CAE predicts that many more airlines will be forced to take up sponsorship of future pilot training and recover the cost through a longer bonding period.

Meanwhile, in the USA there are indications that a career as a professional pilot, whether civil or military, is becoming less attractive to young people.
John Illson, senior vice-president certification services at PRISM (Professional Resources in System Management), notes that applications to the US Air Force Academy are down 21%, and only 38% of people on an aviation degree course in the USA end up wanting to be airline pilots.

EasyJet’s head of crew training, Capt Eddie Sproul, says the industry can ease the situation by improving pilot retention and appealing to a wider base of applicants. One obvious approach, he says, is to make an aviation career more appealing to women.

However, now that the European Aviation Safety Agency flight time limitation maximums of 900h/year have become an airline target, work/life balance is more difficult for pilots, and Sproul predicts that airlines will have to accommodate applications for part-time working or face losing pilots – both men and women – to other jobs or other carriers.

EasyJet has launched its Amy Johnson programme to attract women trainees, and also enables any of its employees to apply to be considered for pilot training.
UK-based training organisation CTC says that, at present, only about 10% of applicants for pilot training are women. Julie Westhorp, chair of the British Women Pilots Association (BWPA), says that raising the profile of women in aviation is a hard task, but one that certainly needs doing. “Nothing would please me more than to close the BWPA because it wasn’t needed any more,” she says

[ozziekiwi]

Seems like it's fast becoming a world wide problem

Pilots say shortages causing cancellations | Stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/91322478/pilots-say-shortages-causing-cancellations)

Plus of course the ''words of wisdom' at the bottom of the article from so called 'armchair pilots'
or would be if they could be ??

[bafanguy]

WARNING: Outsider opinion follows ! Agreement is neither expected nor required.

Alleged pilot “shortages” (an undefined term) today are the result of decisions made up until today rather than the existence or lack of a suitable future pilot supply yet to hit the market…or NOT hit the market

Statements like these below are the typical response from management, i.e., blame everything on someone or something else (no phenomenon is to ill defined or fuzzy to fit the situation):

"One of the biggest issues for us is we are not getting enough pilots coming through the training schools.

The number of pilots coming through is simply not enough to supply the airlines if they continue to grow."

[FWIW, the same allegations are routinely made Up Here where we have vast groves of pilot trees with low-hanging fruit, particularly at the legacy level.]

As merely an observer, I would like to see independent data from someone without anything to lose/gain whatever that data might show. Statements from airline execs and even unions don’t fit that criterion.

Further, I’d ask how many ultimately usable NZ candidates are either viewed and rejected or ignored outright because they aren’t at the moment ideal in the eyes of a company.

Every airline understandably wants ideal people but if there’s a “shortage” threatening the business plan, and management intend to keep that business plan viable, perhaps a company would take some candidates who could be mentored and/or brought along in the monitored, structured environment of an airline and in effect create their own “ideal” result. I’ll bet airlines in NZ are perfectly able to do just that; no one arrives on the property as a finished product nor so they retire as such.

Yes, there might be some people dropped along the way but how’s what management are doing now working for them if they allege a “shortage” ? Something about doing the same thing and expecting a different result comes to mind.

With a lack of reliable Big Picture data I remain a skeptic on the whole issue...but am willing to be educated.

[WCA]

Pilot shortage? It is a myth in Civil Aviation anno 2017!
Various articles are flowing around the Mass Media with one single reason. Commercial Flight schools & low-cost carriers are just interested in increasing their max. profit - and how do they get more on the bank account? By getting more pilot aspirants paying 60-120k EUR for the initial training & additional 30-40k for the TR at appropriate training centers (Guess what: Majority of them in EU are privatized now and under control of CAE/OAA).

[Yonosoy Marinero]

Pilot shortages have been announced regularly for the last 10 years, yet airlines have always found a way around it.

'Pilot shortage' is just a way of saying that airlines can't hire for the money they're offering. The way they go around it is never, obviously, by making the hiring packages more attractive. What they do is simply hire people with little or no experience who they can justify paying less, all with the help of regulators who seem more than happy with airlines plonking 200-hours-wonders in the right seat of their jets.

Said noobs, blinded by how shiny those jets are, are more than happy to take McDonalds T&Cs to have a go at sporting those flashy mall-security-guard uniforms around.

And the wheels of the bus go round and round...

[dragon man]

I believe at the moment Qantas Australian based 737s are doing trans Tasman flying instead of Jetconnect due to them having a pilot shortage.

[Metro man]

For the last three months we've had emails asking people to work on their days off.

[Piltdown Man]

It sounds like somebody is not prepared to offer the appropriate terms and conditions to attract sufficient staff. Decisions taken years ago to save a few pounds are now going to cost hundreds of thousands of pounds or maybe even the company. I do hope the shareholders have the names and addresses of the guilty parties do they can send round the boys to explain their displeasure in person.

PM

[oriental flyer]

Well there are plenty of old farts around who have retired but would consider working month on month off or even a part time roster
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to

[pill]

Your funny Peter.

Wrote a short one to throw us off the scent right?

[Ramjet555]

Pilot Shortage for beginners. First, there has always been a pilot shortage of those with lots of experience and always hardly any shortage of freshly issued commercial licences with out any real experience.

Now, specifically in CANADA, the shortage extends to the lowest experienced commercial pilot.

If you are thinking of gaining a commercial licence and working in Canada you should understand very clearly that the opportunity to immigrate, gain a work permit can automatically follow a STUDENT Permit to obtain a Commercial Licence.

The "shortage" is such that Manitoba issues student visa's of a sort that allow a following work permit in Canada following the course of training.

You can see more at www.MordenImmigration.ca and or www.MountainCityAvation.com
which is located between Grand Forks North Dakota and Winnipeg Manitoba.

[Ramjet555]

Well there are plenty of old farts around who have retired but would consider working month on month off or even a part time roster
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to

A great idea but, the reality is Insurance companies start to draw the limits and not the legislation.

If you are a 95 year old Flight Examiner than you most probably not subject to insurance limitations, most of the time.

[ROW_BOT]

Well there are plenty of old farts around who have retired but would consider working month on month off or even a part time roster
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to

65+? Most airlines in Asia don't want you if you're over 55!
You think ICAO making such a ruling would mean anything in this region?
Besides that - screw any ideas of 'helping them solve their issues' like that. The Chinese have the proper solution - increase the Terms and Conditions until they get the numbers they need. Keep increasing until they do. Great. Market forces at work. It lifts ALL boats. Your solution allows them to keep pissing on us.

One more point - you may not have heard the news, but, we don't live forever.
Ugo Ehiogu - England footballer - dead at 44. He was FITTER than you. (http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/ugo-ehiogu-dead-dies-died-tottenham-aston-villa-middlesbrough-england-heart-attack-cause-of-death-a7694311.html)
David Bowie - Dead at 69. He was RICHER than you. (http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/david-bowie-dead-at-69-20160111)

Wise up and enjoy your life (if you actually have one) before you're six feet under.

PS I'm not as old as you, but old enough to know when the game is up. Soon. Can't bloody wait.

[Kotuku]

Ha ha. Oriental Flyer is not me pill, whilst I did share similar thoughts. Dr. JF at CX City is pretty adamant that they won't go past 65, due to trying to keep the medical risk within their 3% criteria, although I think most colleagues who have left us sadly recently, did for reasons other than to do with age at 65, however I am sure our working lifestyle doesn't help. If they offered an AKL Base on the 747-8F, you would have to consider it, but that isn't going to happen, so early September it is.

Best Regards,

PH

[pill]

Best wishes to you.
Enjoy putting your feet up, and stay away from the ex wife's cooking.

[Kotuku]

Thanks Pill. You have a good memory! :) Looking forward to it now and lots to do to keep me busy in Retirement. Best Wishes to you all.

Cheers. PH

[jumbobelle]

There's been an imminent pilot shortage since I started flying 20 years ago

[Trafalgar]

This published today:

While cost-cutting was the name of the game for many years, the trend has changed now that carriers are facing a severe pilot shortage. Delta (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/delta-reaches-agreement-in-principle-with-pilots-union-says) agreed to give its pilots a 30 percent raise by 2019, and American Airlines (http://increase) said last month that pilots are being offered 8 percent mid-contract raises. United also bolstered its pay.
The industry has an even bigger shortage problem ahead. The Teamsters' letter to Amazon said that 35 percent of current U.S. pilots are likely to retire over the next 10 years and that demand will outstrip supply by up to 15 percent. Amazon is currently partnering with companies on the wrong side of the market, the letter said.
"Pilots enter and then rapidly exit the business, creating massive training and staffing difficulties – not to mention added costs – which impede these air carriers' ability to deliver on customer expectations."


So....CX, your plan is....to imitate an ostrich and put your head in the proverbial sand? Or I suppose someone like AT can just jump in a 777 and fly it to a given destination? I mean, how hard could it really be? Just like driving a bus.

[positionalpor]

https://www.aerotime.aero/en/civil/18981-pilots-to-be-affected-by-retirement-age-increase-in-china?

[Metro man]

Airlines could quite realistically offer very generous retirement benefits to entice pilots to join and stay long term because with 900-1000 hours of ultra long haul flying a year nobody would live very long after retirement to make the cost prohibitive.

A BA 747 captain in the 1970s wouldn't be doing 14 hour legs and would only do around 60 hours a month of shorter sectors with more time down route and at home to recover. Retire at 55 on a full pension and spend the next 20 years on the golf course.

[Average Fool]

CX is losing pilots. Thats a fact.

Whether or not it has an affect on the plan is anyones guess.

One thing you can be sure of is that they will never acknowledge it, detrimental or not.

[Trafalgar]

More and more and more and more....whether the management acknowledge it or not. At the same time, competitors are starting to offer more attractive packages to attract experience. The trend will only accelerate if CX don't pull their finger out. Of course, by the time they wake up to the threat it will be far too late. Arrogance and hubris have a price.

[Average Fool]

Hopefully that price is only monetary.

[Metro man]

CX has an obsolete business model, incompetent management and higher costs than its competitors. Future not looking very bright. The good days of the 1980s will soon be just a memory in the minds of the retired A scalers who got in and out at the best times.

[737er]

Ever notice its always the "looming" or "upcoming" pilot shortage?

Suckers! ;)

[mngmt mole]

And here's another one: from the CNBC business website. Basically, AT seems to think it good business practice to piss off your highly technically trained and essential crew, just when a historic shortage of said personnel is developing. Genius.

Airline industry facing a massive shortfall of pilots, survey says (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/20/this-is-your-captain-retiring--world-faces-pilot-shortage.html)

[positionalpor]

Call me a sentimental

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-2776306/British-Airways-reveals-flying-really-changed-Eighties.html

[Average Fool]

Why would she care about resignations?

She will be "manager Swire _______" soon.

That problem is for someone else to deal with (poorly)

[Kranz]

Does anyone think that this "shortage" (if in fact there is one), will improve the airline 'cadetships' such that airlines will be more likely to sponsor (or part sponsor) cadets rather than forcing them into 'pay-to-fly' style training programs?

[Strewth]

Hong Kong Engineer and Pilot shortage. (http://app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/2100746/desktop) SCMP 020717

L3 HKA Cadet Pilot. (https://www.l3airlineacademy.com/HKA)
L3 HKA Application and selection. (https://www.l3airlineacademy.com/HKA-apply)
L3 HKA Route plan. (https://www.l3airlineacademy.com/163-route-plan.html)
L3 HKA Finance and funding. (https://www.l3airlineacademy.com/164-finance--funding.html)

[pilotchute]

A poster earlier mentioned that the "shortage" seems to be of people who meet the airline "criteria".

When you have requirements like 150 hours flown in last 3 months and recurrency check on type in last 6 months you are creating your own shortage. The amount of people I know who have been rejected on some pointless company requirement is scary.

[Killaroo]

Very true.
When I first came to Asia I quickly realised most companies want 3 month 'currency' to even look at your CV.
After 6 months your licence is considered lapsed.
After 12 months - find a new career.
Now, they may occasionally 'be flexible', if your agency is persuasive enough. But the Official line is you're on a loser after just 3 months out.
It's made all the more stupid by the fact that they'll still require a 'Sim Refresher Course' even if you did your last flight yesterday. And circuits n bumps too, FFS.

[positionalpor]

It is a reality



https://aviationvoice.com/pilot-shortage-leads-horizon-to-cancel-6-of-august-flights-201707030941/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=see_what_happened_in_the_aviation_world&utm_term=2017-07-08

[Average Fool]

Interesting.

The Alaska Air Group has been under a lot of criticism for what appears to be CX type management.

[kenfoggo]

The rumour is that CX are returning 16 777s not because they do not have commercial opportunities to exploit with these airframes and not because the lease terms are outrageous to renew but because they simply cannot be crewed because there are insufficient numbers of pilots employed. (Just a rumour on a rumour network).

[Freehills]

Given that HKIA has only got, what, 7,000 more slots a year, and CX still has a bunch of A350/ B777X coming before 3rd runway is ready, I think it is more likely that while we have the commercial opportunities to exploit, we just won't have the slots before 2023/24/ whenever 3rd runway up and running and the ATC issues sorted.

Of course, the lack of foresight to not see that the airport would be full, and order aircraft regardless, is a bit silly.

[Trafalgar]

Ok, what a great plan. They announce their interest in expanding, but at the same time are losing an every increasing number of experienced pilots, can't hire or train replacements and then go out of their way to alienate the remaining ones they do at the moment still have on the seniority list. Brilliant. Nothing can compare to the genius of our management. :ugh:

[kenfoggo]

Freeholds-if it was a slot problem then Cathay would be getting larger and larger aircraft to move more passengers on each slot and operating 3 large movements to say Heathrow instead of 5 small ones. But more and more smaller aircraft arrive by the week ; how many seats does the A350 configuration provide ( and NONE of them First Class ) ?

[pilotchute]

People want greater choice of departure times. Emirates knows full well how hard it is to fill an A380. I know that some Emirates routes had 4-5 triples sevens a day operating with no empty seats but when it's cut to 2-3 times a day on a 380 they leave half empty. This isn't the case on all routes but it's something they found out the hard way.

Passengers want frequency not giant aircraft.

[kenfoggo]

The question of whether increased frequency generates load or whether it just dilutes a finite demand for seats over more flights is an old one. But , when there is increased pressure on airport slots then the inevitable consequence must be larger aircraft offering more seats per slot.

[Farman Biplane]

Or, you keep the small aircraft and less seats and charge more for them? Supply and demand will work it out?

[pilotchute]

As far as I know it's the business class section that makes the money. Business travellers want choice of departure times.

Economy (leisure) travellers don't want to board a 7 hour flight at 3pm. They want a 10am departure because they want to get there, check in and go and eat etc. Business pax want to arrive at 10am not depart. You want to operate bigger aircraft with fewer slots you have to alienate either the economy pax or business pax. I know which ones I want to keep.

[azhkman]

If the price is low enough, you'll bring out the bottom feeders. An empty seat is zero revenue, but if you want to fill the plane, price it very low and you'll find enough people to fill the plane. Hence, keep a business friendly schedule, lower prices in the back to fill the plane.

[pilotchute]

In a 3 class cabin, if business and first are full. You could pretty much have nobody in economy and the flight will still make a little money.

You could charge 50% on top of the usual economy class seat but if business and first is empty you will be taking off with a big loss. Just putting people on seats is great if you are a low cost single class carrier. For established full service carriers it's not the right strategy.

Even some locos now have a "premium" cabin.

[Cpt. Underpants]

In a 3 class cabin, if business and first are full. You could pretty much have nobody in economy and the flight will still make a little money..

An enduring fallacy. It depends what you're charging. There are many "legacy" carriers that rely on "bums in seats", irrespective of class.
It's not smart to propose that any airline would turn it's back on $200 to $300K per flight (income from economy).
Do the math. Flight load factors need to be north of 90% if any airline wants to make a few bucks. No one can afford to fly an empty cattle class.

[drfaust]

This threat is intellectually so embarrassing that it physically hurts reading it.

I would see someone about that. Reading "threats" that result in physical pain, on the internet, is not something that normal human beings are capable of in their natural habitat.

[Captain Dart]

Threat and Error Management not so good, Sam!

[EFIS Check]

Pilotchute,


I think you should get a job in the revenue management department.
Reading your post I got a great idea.
Why not sell the business and first class seats really cheaply, that why you fill them up no problem and by your logic all will be well as the price you sell them at does not seem to be a consideration.
Take it to the next level, buy a couple of A380s and just put first class seats in them ....... we'll be swimming in it soon ........


Heard of yield before ?

[pilotchute]

Yes I have heard of yield. What you seem to forget is business and first class tickets are usually paid for by non price sensitive customers. Usually corporations (that's why its called business) and rather well off people.

Ever seen a $99 fare in business? No and that's why your argument is a little off.

Underpants, I can't say for sure but I would say that a full business and first class cabin would yield more than all off economy?

The point being though is I would say any airline with premium cabins would much prefer to fly schedules that appeal to the business travellers as full biz and first cabin with only half of economy fIlled would be a much better yield than having a full economy cabin with nobody up the front.

[cpdude]

Back to the subject at hand...

There is NO pilot shortage...there is a shortage of well paying pilot positions with benefits sufficient to encourage potential pilots to apply.

[alldaysushi]

Back to the subject at hand...

There is NO pilot shortage...there is a shortage of well paying pilot positions with benefits sufficient to encourage potential pilots to apply.

^^
Precisely, CAE, is in the pilot shortage business

[Trafalgar]

Well, a few numbers. The USA alone will need upwards of 100,000 new pilots in the next 10 years. Asia-Pacific, about 230,000. Both those numbers based on current growth/retirement estimates. For what it's worth, past estimates have been constantly adjusted in an upwards direction. So, CX can continue their head-in-the-sand attitude towards the simple mathematical fact of a growing crewing crisis, or they can finally acknowledge that finding, keeping and benefiting from skilled, well paid pilots is probably a better idea than their current policy of degrading, demoralising and ultimately losing the pilots they currently employ. I am holding my breath. :rolleyes:

[Average Fool]

Turning out to be quite a storm for CX

[mngmt mole]

Interesting factoid: the US airline industry is quietly lobbying the US Gov to allow the employment of foreign pilots, as there is no where near enough pilots available domestically to cater to the growing demand for both growth and retirement requirements. Would love to be a fly on the wall of CX management offices the day that policy is approved. Of course, they will be busy producing all the 'Confirmation of Employment and Experience' letters that our pilots will be requesting.

[Sam Ting Wong]

You guys are so funny.

Pilot shortage as Cathay, haha.

[boxjockey]

Paul,

It's time for you to retire. Take all of your money (I assume you have some since you've been working here for nearly 30 years) and go off and enjoy the last few years of your life!! Take a break from the internet. We ALL need it.

box

[Trafalgar]

STW. Take boxjockeys advice. You need a rest.

[Sam Ting Wong]

So, since you are so well informed, how big is the pilot shortage at Cathay please?

Got any numbers?

PS I fly 60-70 hours.

[Trafalgar]

Here's a number for you. I fly 900, last three years in a row. Next question?

[bafanguy]

Interesting factoid: the US airline industry is quietly lobbying the US Gov to allow the employment of foreign pilots, as there is no where near enough pilots available domestically to cater to the growing demand for both growth and retirement requirements.

mm,

Not disputing your comment but I'd like to see the information upon which you know the lobbying is taking place. A few regionals here are taking Aussies under the E-3 visa applicable only to Aussies (as discussed elsewhere). IIUC, this visa class was in place long ago and merely used lately to get a few expats into the regional segment of the US airline biz...and probably isn't the mechanism to which you refer. I'd love to see the source of your information.

[Captain Dart]

Here's a number for you. I fly 900, last three years in a row. Next question?

Aren't you a trainer, Traf?

[Trafalgar]

and the point of your question is....?

[Captain Dart]

Well, if you are, quitting training would reduce your workload significantly. You might fly hours like STW.

Also, you could rest easy knowing that you are not training your cheap replacements and diluting your contract.

[Trafalgar]

As to banafguy's point: the US industry is approaching crisis. The military doesn't have near enough pilots to release to the airlines (they are contemplating $500K bonus's to their pilots to stay....what does that tell you about a shortage?). The commuter airlines are reducing/cancelling services and parking aircraft. There is nearly no pipeline from the flying schools, because airlines (particularly commuters) have devalued the profession so much that individuals can't be bothered to invest in a pilot career (remind you of a particular airline in HK?). The ONLY way the US industry will fill their cockpits is with foreign pilots, and industry leading conditions. That is why we already have people leaving CX for the US (even people about to start their commands here, after 11 years in CX). So, CX management can 'pretend' they are in charge, but the facts will inexorably defeat them. Will be fun to watch.

[Trafalgar]

Capt Dart. On the777, I doubt it. And btw, my timeline might be different than you think.

[vmo340]

Horizon Air is canceling hundreds of flights because of the "pilot shortage." It's airlines' fault. (http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2017/06/30/horizon_air_is_canceling_hundreds_of_flights_because_of_the_ pilot_shortage.html)

[Sam Ting Wong]

Trafalgar,

if Cathay is so short on pilots, why don't they keep guys with 55 RA?

They could offer local package, a lot would take it.

So, why don't they do it?

[Table For 1]

They can't be short.....I believe they are actually paying at least one of the Manchester Captains to leave..... guess the TB/CC means nothing to these arrogant Swire morons.

[Trafalgar]

STW: it's due to the overwhelming influence of arrogance, conceit and face. Nothing more needs explaining. Our management will drive this airline, it's history and it's legacy into the ground.

[Strewth]

Export markets - China (https://www.austrade.gov.au/australian/export/export-markets/countries/china/industries/aviation-training-to-china) Austrade

[Sam Ting Wong]

Last HKAOA letter contains (again) ZERO resignations, but 8 applications of new-joiners.

There never was a pilot shortage at Cathay, there is no pilot shortage at Cathay, and there never will be a pilot shortage at Cathay.

Accept the reality and act accordingly.

Politics is the art of the attainable, and going to war empty handed is suicide.

[Shag Nasty]

Even "our" own union failed to mention that for the first time in CX's history, a Captain has been made redundant. I expected that from management, but not from the Union.

[DropKnee]

Last HKAOA letter contains (again) ZERO resignations, but 8 applications of new-joiners.

There never was a pilot shortage at Cathay, there is no pilot shortage at Cathay, and there never will be a pilot shortage at Cathay.

Accept the reality and act accordingly.

Politics is the art of the attainable, and going to war empty handed is suicide.

You are correct STW. CX will never be short of pilots. When you hire zero time cadets you never run out. What CX will be short of is Aviators.

[Trafalgar]

And how was he made 'redundant'...?

[oriental flyer]

The Current Market Outlook report released this week by aerospace giant Boeing (NYSE: BA) projects that the aviation industry must generate more than 2.1 million new pilots and other skilled workers during the next 20 years to keep pace with the sector’s huge growth. That spells trouble for airlines and government agencies that already don’t have enough pilots.

Passenger airlines are particularly vulnerable. The major carriers are bracing for the retirement of about 18,000 pilots in the U.S. over the next three years. The pilot shortage could drive some regional airlines out of business.

So far in 2017, Delta Air Lines has hired the greatest number of new pilots (474) among the major U.S. carriers, followed by Southwest Airlines at 366, American Airlines Group at 354, and United Airlines at 254.

Sounds like a looming problem in the next few years

[Table For 1]

Well Traffy, it seems that he refused to accept CX cheating on a clear employment offer. And unlike some motor mouths on here he stuck to his guns and was served a Compulsory Redundancy Notice. Manchester based so probably of little interest to your kind.

[Trafalgar]

Ok, well that isn't particularly clear. If CX were following the rules for base closure or other aspects of COS, and he refused one of the options on offer then yes, they would give him notice. If however he refused to be moved WITHOUT a basis in COS, then he has every right to insist on being treated according to the rules. So, perhaps you could amplify what you mean by 'he refused to accept CX cheating on a clear employment offer'...?