North Korea!

[crackling jet]

I 'd guess not.

Satellites: Vectors predictable days in advance.
ICBMs: Not so much. Launch will come as a surprise (partly the point)

Different problem.

Also, I'd think F-15s unlikely to be in range unless a 24/7/365 CAP (where?).

Finally, the ASAT programme was cancelled by the Reagan administration nearly 30 years ago.


How about the 'Airborne Laser' armed 747 ?, is that not a feasible option or is that still under development. Only the years we've seen it on TV together with the claims of what it could do seemed ideal, or is the flight duration too short to track/lock on and fire (not being pedantic just a ground crew individual who is not in the know )


So what would be affective against an I/b Korean idiots rocket, short of kicking his bottle over after he lit the touch paper ?


And finally, why did we let him get this far in the first place ?

[ShotOne]

"..why did we let him get this far in the first place?" 👍+1

[etudiant]

"..why did we let him get this far in the first place?" 👍+1


Because no one was eager to get involved with a regime that survived even though its people starved to death in large numbers while the NK nuclear capability was developed.

There won't be any war either, as both China and SK have far too much to lose to allow NK's antics to break up the party.

Just my $0.02.

[tdracer]

How about the 'Airborne l@ser' armed 747 ?, is that not a feasible option or is that still under development. Only the years we've seen it on TV together with the claims of what it could do seemed ideal, or is the flight duration too short to track/lock on and fire (not being pedantic just a ground crew individual who is not in the know )
Development on the 747 airborne laser was discontinued several years ago. I'm not clear on the why - it seemed to working reasonably well. At the time there were some sounds to the effect that new technology had made that particular setup obsolete - but if that was truly the case I would have thought there would have been some sort of new technology follow on (then again, maybe there is and we're just not being told about it).

[ORAC]

The 747 technology was obsolete and scrapped. There are tenders out for tactical lasers to be fitted to FJ for self protection, effectively burning out the sensors of incoming SAW and AAM, but the range to stand-off by a couple of hundred miles and take out an accelerating ICBM is something different.

Thought they haven't given up......

Missile Defense Agency Seeking A High-Flying Drone For "Airborne Laser 2.0" - The Drive (http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/11526/missile-defense-agency-looking-for-high-flying-drone-for-airborne-laser-2-0)

[andytug]

The main problem with all the laser cannons is power efficiency, your 747 gets a few shots off then runs out of power, same with the truck mounted version. It needs massive amounts of power per shot, supplied by some pretty nasty chemicals (hydrazine?). Not really practical in the real world. Yet.

[barnstormer1968]

Carbon Bootprint.
An ideal system to deal with the NK artillery is MLRS. It can nuetralise gun crews over a wide area and can repeat the effect as long as ammo is available. The downside being that it would need to be based in SK so would instantly involve SK even if fired by US army personnel.

[Carbon Bootprint]

An ideal system to deal with the NK artillery is MLRS. It can nuetralise gun crews over a wide area and can repeat the effect as long as ammo is available. The downside being that it would need to be based in SK so would instantly involve SK even if fired by US army personnel.

I would agree, and apparently SK has developed its own, known as Chunmoo or K-MLRS in military-speak. Probably on high alert at the moment. :ok:

http://www.military-today.com/artillery/chunmoo.jpg

[etudiant]

Afaik, most of the NK artillery lining the DMZ is buried deep into hillsides, so not vulnerable to area weapons such as the MLRS dispenses. Reportedly several thousand units are involved, spread among many locations.
Targeting such a mass of sites even with bunker busters of uncertain efficacy is not going to be easy or quick.

[Willard Whyte]

May have had the PAL removed as part of treaty compliance......

Quite probably.

[Fareastdriver]

Afaik, most of the NK artillery lining the DMZ is buried deep into hillsides

You still have to get it outside to be able to use it. Once outside it becomes traceable to MLRS.

Existing pictures of North Korean artillery show an amazing variety of muzzle flashes from identical guns. As they are still using 1950s ammunition I would be surprised if all of it was serviceable.

I can imagine a large proportion detonating in the barrel, falling short or very short or veering off in various directions.

[Argonautical]

I heard an interview last week on Radio 4, they were talking to a lady journalist ( I think) who had spent some time in the North and she seemed to me, at least, to know what she was talking about, She said the NK army is basically a second world war army and nearly all its soldiers are very poorly equipped. I reckon if it comes to a shooting war against the South and USA, it will be like Gulf War II again, a complete walk over.

[barnstormer1968]

Etudiant.

While the NK forces have a history of firing concealed artillery they have never faced modern opposition. The last time NK artillery was seriously targetted it was by piston engined fighters, WW2 era bazookas or WW2/just after tanks.
The effect of multiple simultaneous MLRS strikes would have a profound effect imho on any troops trying to fire or co ordinate fire towards the South.

Incoming fire, and especially overwhelming incoming fire has a huge effect on troops and their ability to do even the most simple of tasks.
While a different task, troops on the peacetime firing range may put 25, 26, 27 or 28 rounds from a rifle magazine
on target. Troops in combat with rounds coming back at them may score one kill per many thousands of rounds fired.

Let's just hope that KJU finds a way out if this. His population arent getting a say in this and it seems unfair that they should suffer, even if willingly for his posturing.

[air pig]

I reckon if it comes to a shooting war against the South and USA, it will be like Gulf War II again, a complete walk over.

With many thousands dead and many many more thousands injured both civilian and military on both sides. A walk over hmmm. We all know what happened after GW2, going to war is easier but has anybody thought out a day one peace plan to handle the aftermath??

[barnstormer1968]

Air pig.
While I hope this all just dies down I have given a lot of thought to what could happen after any US strikes.
This is a very interesting discussion point as we are obviously dealing with a population who have a culture of worshipping their leader (I know the culture is there but have no idea just how much of the applause/crying is genuine).
We cant even know if tubby will survive any attacks.
If he dies goodness knows what would follow, if he does then would the population rise up in anger and who would the anger be against. If he lives would he become a more superior god like figure in NK culture?
Interesting times lay ahead.

[SASless]

Equipped with 20,000 artillery pieces, 1,000 short- and medium-range missiles, 70 submarines, more than 400 patrol/missile boats and 563 combat aircraft, the Hermit Kingdom's forces are poised to do maximum damage in a sneak attack against South Korea.


How many B-1 Bombers are there? 62 maybe?

Dropping how many Bombs per pass? 84 500 Pounders

Assuming 100% Launch Rate, No Aborts, All Bombs on target with no misses or duplication....and NOK Guns and Crews in the open in precisely located positions......you still only get 25% of them.

Then what?

[Herod]

Wasn't it Mao who said something like "quantity has a quality all its own"?

[barnstormer1968]

SASless.
Has anyone said that only B1s' will be involved?

We could equally add 70-130 cruise missile strikes, ten full MLRS salvos plus carrierborne strikes.
The MLRS on their own can completely blanket ten square km in a matter of seconds.

Add in the battery and counter battery support from SK and thats a big addition to the equation.

[air pig]

Air pig.
While I hope this all just dies down I have given a lot of thought to what could happen after any US strikes.
This is a very interesting discussion point as we are obviously dealing with a population who have a culture of worshipping their leader (I know the culture is there but have no idea just how much of the applause/crying is genuine).
We cant even know if tubby will survive any attacks.
If he dies goodness knows what would follow, if he does then would the population rise up in anger and who would the anger be against. If he lives would he become a more superior god like figure in NK culture?
Interesting times lay ahead.

I totally agree with your comments, whilst the US et al have the ability to lay a large part of NK to waste land, what happens next. China is worried that there maybe be a multi-million person move north across their border and I suspect will not tolerate a US et al first strike.

If they do attack even in retaliation, and overwhelm the NK forces and force surrender, then they have a responsibilty to the NK population, would they make the same errors as happened in Iraq. Could they control and calm the civil population which has been in effect brainwashed over the years by the Kim dynasty.

Should Kim and his accolytes survive and be captured like Saddam Hussein, what do you do with him, an international court or a court of his countryfolk?

Some recent comments hereare discussing weapons systems and strike capabilities, but whilst you may attack, the cconsequences of the attack need to be thought through, because if Kim attacks SK and destorys Soeul and other cities he will not have a lot to lose and by that he could employ his 5.5 million army with massive losses plus the use of various WMD he holds.

Before anything happens I do hope that this has been thought through, but I suspect not.

[CONSO]

The 50th anniversary of Starfish Prime: the nuke that shook the world - Bad Astronomy : Bad Astronomy (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/07/09/the-50th-anniversary-of-starfish-prime-the-nuke-that-shook-the-world/#.WZJMzYqQyGg)


On July 9, 1962, the US launched a Thor missile from Johnston island (http://goo.gl/maps/1RhB), an atoll about 1500 kilometers (900 miles) southwest of Hawaii. The missile arced up to a height of over 1100 km (660 miles), then came back down. At the preprogrammed height of 400 km (240 miles), just seconds after 09:00 UTC, the 1.4 megaton nuclear warhead detonated. And all hell broke loose.
..[QUOTE] But the effects were far more than a simple light show. When the bomb detonated, those electrons underwent incredible acceleration. When that happens they create a brief but extremely powerful magnetic field. This is called an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP. The strength of the pulse was so huge that it affected the flow of electricity on the Earth hundreds of kilometers away! In Hawaii it blew out hundreds of streetlights, and caused widespread telephone outages. Other effects included electrical surges on airplanes and radio blackouts.
The EMP had been predicted by scientists, but the Starfish Prime pulse was far larger than expected. And there was another effect that hadn’t been predicted accurately. Many of the electrons from the blast didn’t fall down into the Earth’s atmosphere, but instead lingered in space for months, trapped by Earth’s magnetic field, creating an artificial radiation belt high above our planet’s surface.


+++
NOW HOW ABOUT A CEP OF 450 MILES ?http://cdn.pprune.org/images/smilies/worry.gif

[SASless]

Barns,

How do you keep such a strike....with every weapon system known to the Western World....secret.....right up to the pulling of the trigger on the Strike?

You think you can get all the aircraft....tankers, bombers, fighters, surveillance, EW, Cruise Missiles, Rockets, Artillery, Helicopters into the air, fueled, staged, timed and coordinated....and the North Koreans not tweaking to their pending doom?

You reckon they mad bugger at the top of their Totem Pole might just order a strike of his own against South Korea, Japan, and some American target?

If you think we can wipe'em out with a first strike and suffer no damage of our own....I suggest you best stick to Game Station Strategy games.

[tartare]

Sounds like Kim has blinked. (http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-moves-missiles-into-position-for-launch-report-20170814-gxw8vr.html)

North Korea's leader has delayed a decision on firing missiles towards the US territory of Guam while he watches the actions of the United States a little longer, the North's state media said on Tuesday, as Washington warned it would take out any missile heading for the Pacific island.

[A_Van]

.....

We could equally add 70-130 cruise missile strikes, ten full MLRS salvos plus carrierborne strikes.
The MLRS on their own can completely blanket ten square km in a matter of seconds.

Add in the battery and counter battery support from SK and thats a big addition to the equation.


NK do have MLRS, too. And even bigger:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KN-09_(MRL)


What if they strike first?

[ORAC]

Blinked - but what will they do when the exercises go ahead?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/15/north-korea-kim-foolish-yankees-guam-missile-attack

Kim Jong-un appeared on Tuesday to signal a pause in the escalating war of words with Donald Trump, saying he was prepared to watch US actions in the region “a little more” before ordering a planned launch of North Korean missiles aimed at the US territory of Guam. But he warned he could still order a missile launch aimed at the seas around Guam if there were further provocations from “foolish Yankees”.

“The United States, which was the first to bring numerous strategic nuclear equipment near us, should first make the right decision and show through actions if they wish to ease tensions on the Korean peninsula and prevent a dangerous military clash,” Kim was quoted as saying by the state KCNA news agency after an inspection of the army’s strategic forces..... But in a sign that Kim may be attempting to lower the diplomatic temperature, KCNA said he would continue to watch the “foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees” before deciding whether to give an order for the launch.

Kim said North Korea would approve the launch of four intermediate-range Hwasong-12 ballistic missiles if the Americans “persist in their extremely dangerous, reckless actions on the Korean peninsula and its vicinity”, KCNA said. Official photos showed the North Korean leader, making his first public appearance for about two weeks, sitting at a table with a large map marked with a straight line that appeared to show the missiles’ intended flight path from north-east North Korea, over western Japan and out into the Pacific towards Guam. If the launches did proceed, Kim said he looked forward to “the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks”.

The dispatch did not specify which US actions Kim considered “dangerous and reckless”, but US and South Korea are due to begin two weeks of joint military exercises from 21 August. While the US and South Korea insist the annual drills are defensive in nature, North Korea has long considered them a preparation for invasion and customarily uses the exercises to issue threats against Washington and its allies.......

[Lonewolf_50]

Wasn't it Mao who said something like "quantity has a quality all its own"?
Stalin, I think, but now I have to go and look that up.

[barnstormer1968]

SASless
Thanks for the suggestion!

Im not sure why you felt the need to suggest it as I dont recall ever saying the US/SK wouldnt suffer casualties.
I also dont recall saying the US could wipe out all of NK forces.
I did specifically mention that MLRS could cover 10 square km, and I'll presume you already knew I was aware that NK covers an area larger than 10 square km.

Not that Ive ever played on a games station but if I ever do I'll see how playing compares to real life. :)

[glad rag]

You still have to get it outside to be able to use it. Once outside it becomes traceable to MLRS.

Existing pictures of North Korean artillery show an amazing variety of muzzle flashes from identical guns. As they are still using 1950s ammunition I would be surprised if all of it was serviceable.

I can imagine a large proportion detonating in the barrel, falling short or very short or veering off in various directions.

By all means head to the front and prove your point.

[megan]

Stalin, I think, but now I have to go and look that upAn American seems to be in the running.

https://www.quora.com/Who-said-Quantity-has-a-quality-all-its-own

[PersonFromPorlock]

Just a thought; in every picture I see where Kim is smiling, everybody's smiling. What condition is their military really in, when reporting problems might cause Kim to frown?

[CONSO]

Just a thought; in every picture I see where Kim is smiling, everybody's smiling. What condition is their military really in, when reporting problems might cause Kim to frown?


They fully understand the org chart AND that the chain of command is NOT used for pulling large trucks. . . :D

[BBadanov]

Stalin, I think, but now I have to go and look that up.

Yep, I think Stalin.
But also sometimes credited to Napoleon.

[Heathrow Harry]

"What condition is their military really in, when reporting problems might cause Kim to frown?"

A country where his Grandfather had someone shot for "leftist-rightest tendencies", where his father had someone shot for "placing a statue of the Good Leader in the shade" and a man who, in a couple of years, has had his half-brother murdered abroad and his uncle shot for unspecified crimes

SMILE!!! and keep on SMILING would be my advice.....................

(fot the avoidance of doubt) Happy Happy Heathrow Harry (notebook in hand of course)

[ORAC]

Mattis says war could escalate 'very quickly' if N. Korea fires at US (http://thehill.com/policy/defense/346546-mattis-says-war-could-escalate-very-quickly-if-n-korea-fires-at-us)

Defense Secretary James Mattis said Monday that the United States will attempt to shoot down any North Korean missile launched at the country or its territories. "We’ll take it out," Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon.

He later said that, should a North Korean missile hit U.S. soil, including the Pacific island of Guam, it would constitute an act of war. “If they shoot at the United State, I’m assuming they hit the United States. If they do that, it’s game on,” Mattis added.

North Korea last week threatened to launch ballistic missiles at waters off the coast of Guam, a U.S. territory that hosts about 6,000 American troops and thousands of civilians. The isolated nation made the statement after President Trump warned North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to stop making threats against the U.S. and allies or it would "be met with fire and fury ... like the world has never seen." North Korea then warned that a plan to attack Guam would be in place by mid-August.

Mattis said the Defense Department would “know within moments” if a North Korean missile has been launched and if it was headed toward Guam. “I think if they fire at the United States it could escalate into war very quickly. Yes, that’s called war, if they shoot at us,” Mattis said.

Mattis also said that should North Korea fire in the direction of Guam but not hit the territory, “that becomes an issue that we take up however the president chooses. War is up to the president, perhaps up to the Congress. The bottom line is we will defend the country from an attack,” he later said. “Yes, that means for a lot of young troops, they’re going to be in a war time situation.”

He added: “You don’t shoot at people in this world. You don’t shoot at people in this world unless you want to bear the consequences.”

[Lantern10]

Try watching this without tearing up.
If I really wrote what I'm thinking I would be banned for sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufhKWfPSQOw

I know it's a few years old and if it has been posted before I apologise.

[A_Van]

I take these statements from Mattis in such a way that hopefully there are at least two steps before the hot war starts, not one step. I.e., if fat Un really launches missiles towards Guam explicitly warning in advance that the target area is somewhere in neutral waters, then it is not yet a war (though a violation, ignorance, etc. etc). US would (hopefully) intercept whatever NK launches (I assume there would be some light imitators of real warheads as they are unlikely to reach such a technological level so quick) but not necessarily strike massively the NK territory. IMHO such a successful intercept would put the fat one into sh..t up to his ears, and this would be a good thing. Would it stop him from further development, sure not. More sanctions (even from China), very likely yes. But though a threat for Seoul would not become less, it would be a great relief for Tokyo, Hawaii, Guam and continental US.

[Buster Hyman]

War is up to the president, perhaps up to the Congress.
Umm...I'm not fully versed on American Politics but is there such a blurred line that the Sec Def can say "perhaps"???

[ORAC]

Umm...I'm not fully versed on American Politics but is there such a blurred line that the Sec Def can say "perhaps"???

Buster.....

War Powers Resolution (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution).

[PersonFromPorlock]

Umm...I'm not fully versed on American Politics but is there such a blurred line that the Sec Def can say "perhaps"???

Only Congress has constitutional authority to declare war, but the President, acting as Commander-in-Chief, has an inherent power to use military force; for instance when attacked, or briefly.

In practice, this has become a way for Congress to avoid all responsibility for starting a war; they may support the President's decision to use force, or oppose him, but basically they have ceded the decision to him.

[KenV]

Umm...I'm not fully versed on American Politics but is there such a blurred line that the Sec Def can say "perhaps"???There are two issues here:

On the one hand, only Congress can declare war and put the nation on a war footing. But as commander in Chief, the president has the power to commit military forces essentially anywhere, anytime, for any reason. A protracted military engagement requires funding, and since only Congress has the ability to levy taxes and thus controls all the purse strings, that requires Congress to agree with the president in any protracted engagement. This has happened numerous times in our history.

And on the other hand, even if Congress declared war, it's up to the President to prosecute that war. If he decided not to engage the military even in the face of a Congressional declaration of war, he/she could. This has never happened.

But the bottom line: yes, perhaps.

[tartare]

Try watching this without tearing up.
If I really wrote what I'm thinking I would be banned for sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufhKWfPSQOw

I know it's a few years old and if it has been posted before I apologise.

Thank you for re-posting that - I hadn't seen it.
Utterly despicable that people could be treated in such a way.

EDIT: Hmmm - perhaps this isn't (http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/the-strange-tale-of-yeonmi-park/) quite what it seems?

[Brian W May]

I hope the Americans have rapidly re-opened the Neutron bomb production line . . .

[Buster Hyman]

Perhaps it is then....:uhoh:

[tartare]

There you go - looks like poor old `straya is suicidal (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-21/north-korea-warns-australia-over-suicidal-act/8828142) for cosying up to Uncle Sam.
Guess Darwin is going to have to prepare to get whacked...

[CoodaShooda]

Guess Darwin is going to have to prepare to get whacked...

Meh! What with being flattened by cyclones in 1897, 1937 and 1974 and Japanese bombs in 1942, we're probably overdue for a good whacking.

May hold off on the household renovations for a bit, though. Kim might create the scenario where I'll be able to get the taxpayer to stump up the repair costs (again). :E

[ORAC]

One of those places where dropping a bomb could do millions of dollars worth of improvements? :p:p

[CoodaShooda]

Literally, ORAC. :E

Cyclone Tracy in '74 flattened the old town and the Aussie taxpayer paid for a modern new city.

[Buster Hyman]

the Aussie taxpayer paid for a modern new city.
Well that was money well spent!....

[Heathrow Harry]

I think they were worried that the inhabitants might stay south...............

[CoodaShooda]

Darwin is Australia's first line of defence.

Any invader landing here will take one look at the place, realise that there's nothing here worth the effort, turn around and go home (or to NZ).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pZSsqQVxZA

[tartare]

...where lo we will smite and vanquish them with our T-6 IIs, A-109s and Seasprites...

[megan]

Darwin is about the safest place to be. Is Kimmy going to whack a Chinese property - they own the port.

[CoodaShooda]

You can probably say that about most of the country now , megan.

[tartare]

I personally think all this talk of either an ICBM strike or a nuclear exchange is way overblown.
Firing a liquid fueled rocket in peacetime is one thing - on a war footing a lot more difficult - without being hit first.
What guarantee is there that even a conventional warhead on a Hwasong 12 would survive re-entry - seems there was a wide variation of views on just what those Japanese CCTV cameras saw.
They may have developed a miniaturised nuclear warhead, but have they successfully launched it and verified it's stayed intact and functioning before destroying it in flight?
How do we know that even a non-miniature North Korean nuclear weapon would even function as required in a real world setting rather than the controlled underground tests we've seen so far?
What's their quality control like?
I think what's far more likely is a short (maybe a few days to a week) really nasty conventional conflict.
A few dud Scud type shots launched at Tokyo and Guam.
The Northern suburbs of Seoul pounded for a few hours by artillery and other SK cities targeted by SRBMs.
Until they were eliminated en masse by conventional US airstrikes, and US and SK ground forces.
Would the Chinese really intervene at that point or before, or after?
Somehow, despite all the statements, I doubt it.
I don't think they'd use nukes in response to a massive American conventional strike.
And it's then that the real uncertainty starts... almost as difficult as the conflict... is what follows.

[ImageGear]

Ahh yes, the allies will agree an end state to this intervention. everyone will stop at the 39th parallel.

Just like the last big brouhaha.. some will, some won't, and another cold war will result. That's if there's anything left. :E

Imagegear

[CoodaShooda]

Remind me again how the embargoes against Japan over its Manchurian visit ended up.

[West Coast]

I personally think all this talk of either an ICBM strike or a nuclear exchange is way overblown.

The challenges you believe are a barrier are simply technology challenges that will be overcome given time and expertise. At the frenetic pace they seem to be working, I'd say sooner rather than later they'll have the capacity that even you have to acknowledge.

[tartare]

The challenges you believe are a barrier are simply technology challenges that will be overcome given time and expertise. At the frenetic pace they seem to be working, I'd say sooner rather than later they'll have the capacity that even you have to acknowledge.

Perhaps.
One thing I have wondered is if they have a limited stock of Ukranian engines, rather than having successfully reverse engineered them and made their own.

[DirtyProp]

Looks like the Fat Bully has fired a missile over Japan.
There has to be a way to get rid of this fat lunatic discreetly....

[Less Hair]

Security Council to meet later on this.

[tartare]

Another sternly worded communique utterly condemning...

[Lonewolf_50]

How many UN Communiques can a man take before he breaks down and gives up? :eek: Oh, the humanity!

(Oh, wait, the number approaches infinity asymptotically ...) :p

[A_Van]

If the missile indeed flew over Hokkaido, then all this sounds disappointing. Kim might feel more and more confident that he could progressively increase the distance in that direction laughing at and sh...ing on Japan from above. I wonder if any real warning (forget about UN blah-blah) would be issued? I.e. drawing a clear red line for him beyond which his missiles would be intercepted.

No teeth (read AeGIS+SM3)? No balls?

[West Coast]

My bet is a lack of political will to be perceived as escalating the situation, not an issue with the ability to intercept the incoming missile.

[SARF]

If Japan is on the receiving end of North Korea's missiles I doubt the South Koreans will do anything other than laugh

[Fareastdriver]

It's noticeable that he hasn't sent them over South Korea. He probably realises that would be a step too far.

[andytug]

It's noticeable that he hasn't sent them over South Korea. He probably realises that would be a step too far.

I guess there's a lot more to hit the other side, bit of a nav error and you hit Indonesia?

[Brian W May]

Can't help thinking this situation is like The Life of Brian . . .

Fatty Un does something and 'John Cleese' invokes an extraordinary meeting of the Peoples' Liberation Front of Judea (aka the UN).

It's not funny, but it really doesn't cut the mustard when the rest of the world 'condemn' Fatty Un, he really doesn't give a sh*t what everyone else thinks.

It's a no-win situation for the politicians/military with a potentially bad outcome or a worse one. Personally I don't think a peaceful outcome is possible as nobody in NK can actually tell Fatty Un it's going to end in tears without being fed to the dogs.

Where's the Neutron bomb when you need it . . .

[Less Hair]

Where is China when you need it?

[andytug]

Where is China when you need it?

Quietly taking over the South China sea using NK as a convenient distraction, by all accounts.

[A_Van]

Perhaps.
One thing I have wondered is if they have a limited stock of Ukranian engines, rather than having successfully reverse engineered them and made their own.



The rumours circulated for some years that N-Koreans indeed had smuggled smth from Ukraine. Three topics/options were addressed: a) complete technical documentation was stolen that allowed NK to greatly accelerate engineering and production processes, b) some real engines were illegally imported (some even wrote about the routes through middle east), c) NK hired Ukrainian engineers that lost their jobs when the country stopped support to plants in Dnepropetrovsk (now Dnepr).


IMHO option a) is very realistic. Even higher management of the Yuzhmash in Dnepr recently assumed that the leak of documentation likely happened. Two NK spies were caught and now in prison, but how many were not caught, nobody knows. Option b) seems not so likely to me because the entire Ukraine is for a long time under tight control of CIA and the latter would prevent any deal of that kind. Option c) seems very realistic. Controlling people is a much more difficult task than large hardware items. The guys might leave their home country for a vacation in UAE or Turkey and then escape to Far East.

[Heathrow Harry]

and NK probably bought rocket and N technology from the friendly Pakistani Sales folk.........

[ORAC]

NK just conducted another nuclear test. Yield estimated at 100Kt - 10 times larger than any previous tested. At the same time they issued a photo of Kim inspecting a basic missile compatible warhead and claiming iit is a hydrogen bomb. Yield is not compatible with that, but is compatible with a boosted fission bomb.......

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/03/north-korea-nuclear-test-south-korea-yohap-kim-jong-un-live

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/637baf253f2aa955d75f540696c2a385f994d920/0_138_3314_1989/master/3314.jpg?w=1920&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&

[ShotOne]

"What's China doing..?" Apparently adhering to 60 year-old anti-imperialist dogma. This outcome isn't good for anyone. But it's disadvantageous to China more than anyone; missile defence system in S Korea, hitherto unthinkable talk of Japanese nukes, and if the worst does happen and it comes to nuclear war, it's on China's doorstep. A thoroughly inept and unstatesmanlike performance!

[Onceapilot]

Ha, Ha, Ha, etc,etc!
The BBC state that KJU stands "dangerously close" to a warhead in a pici on their news website.
How close is "dangerously close" to a Nuclear warhead then???? :p
Idiots

OAP

[Buster Hyman]

Anything closer than 3 feet would be dangerous. If one of them drops on your foot you'd know it!

[RAFEngO74to09]

Latest statement from the White House after SecDef + Chairman JCS met with President Trump.

lWXyMvtFdvc

[RAFEngO74to09]

USAF B-1B, USMC F-35B and ROKAF F-15K on exercise 2 Sep 17.

xKBQAEJIRjQ

[MPN11]

One problem facing China in all this is "what about the border?". For now, or at least until recently, China had a convenient 'buffer state' between themselves and the perfidious West/South Koreans. OK, NoK is a loose cannon, but unlikely to start firing things at China.

If NoK is destabilised or dismantled, what will take it's place? Will SoK occupy [peacefully or otherwise] NoK, thus bringing them [and with the US in company] right up to the Chinese border?

So from China's perspective, which is the lesser evil?

[ORAC]

China also has land borders with India and Vietnam - both of which have increasingly friendly military ties and agreements with the USA. So I don't see it as being an overriding issue. Far more worrying would be the flood of refugees if the NK regime fell.

[Heathrow Harry]

It's the refugees that bother them - not only having to feed the poor sods but also the effect on one of China's main industrial areas

The Chinese tend to take the long view - and hope the problem will go away............ but how much stroke they have within the NK Military (who are the only hope of a change at the top) is totally unknown

[Tashengurt]

There's the crux. It's in no nations interest to have NK collapse. A gradual move toward democracy or a non nuclear dictatorship would seem to be the preferred options.

[Cazalet33]

A gradual move toward democracy or a non nuclear dictatorship would seem to be the preferred options.

That's a good idea for a future version of the US.

We're a long way from such a Utopia. And even further from a transference of such a Utopia to an imposition of such a model on subjugated states such as Vietnam, Syria, Iraq, Korea, et al.

First, remove nuclear weapons from the imperial countries; then invite truly free countries to follow suit.

Then there may be peace.

[charliegolf]

Listened to a SOAS prof being interviewed on the radio earlier. His view: the nukes and vehicles are a 'giant insurance policy' against a West instigated regime change. And that they have zero intent to use the missiles. Further, Kim is 'a young man having fun poking a stick in the American eye', safe in the knowledge they can't do much. Intersting slant.

CG

[ORAC]

The problem with brinkmanship is that young and inexperienced people have a habit of accidentally falling over the edge....

[Cazalet33]

Interesting slant.

Slant, not a slope. Let's not get Clarksonian about 'em.

[Melchett01]

Listened to a SOAS prof being interviewed on the radio earlier. His view: the nukes and vehicles are a 'giant insurance policy' against a West instigated regime change. And that they have zero intent to use the missiles. Further, Kim is 'a young man having fun poking a stick in the American eye', safe in the knowledge they can't do much. Intersting slant.

CG

Apparently he is entirely rational and not stupid. Someone needs to explain that one to me because frankly when the rest of the world is growing increasingly concerned about your behaviour, surely the rational thing isn't to go out of your way to prove them right. There is no interest in instigating regime change, just ensuring stability. And yet everything he does seems to be driving towards the route of regime change. It frankly just doesn't compute on any sane level.

Furthermore, Mattis' statement was a very interesting upping of the rhetoric. POTUS' statement on fire and fury was off the cuff out of the political environment. Mattis' statement was carefully scripted and the idea of 'may' respond was very definitely removed in favour of 'will' respond with force. At a Regimental dinner a few years back, the guest of honour was a VVSO with huge experience of operating amongst politicians. He said something very interesting, but also very worrying in the current context: don't waste time trying to interpret what senior politicians are saying. They invariably mean exactly what they say, there is rarely a hidden meaning.

What was it Mattis said in Iraq? Something like 'I come in peace, I didn't bring artillery. But I'm pleading with you, with tears in my eyes, if you f*** with me I'll kill you'. This is a Sec Def who means business, and I'd probably be paying more attention to his announcements than POTUS'.

[PhilipG]

If Kim can be described as logical, then we are back in the MAD stand off of the Cold War, although only in a smaller geographic area, or is this wrong?

Is this stand off the price that has to be paid to keep China comfortable with a buffer state at its border?

[ShotOne]

"..gradual move towards democracy or non nuclear dictatorship.."Except that neither of those options are remotely in prospect for the foreseeable And while the refugee influx would be an enormous problem for China it wouldn't harm the USA. A dangerous dilemma; a binary choice between a hostile state armed with nuclear ICBMs and a preemptive (maybe nuclear!) attack. Not great options for anyone but China with most to lose has done least to prevent it.

[Photonic]

Apparently he is entirely rational and not stupid. Someone needs to explain that one to me because frankly when the rest of the world is growing increasingly concerned about your behaviour, surely the rational thing isn't to go out of your way to prove them right. There is no interest in instigating regime change, just ensuring stability. And yet everything he does seems to be driving towards the route of regime change. It frankly just doesn't compute on any sane level.

There is an article in the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/03/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test-china-xi-jinping.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) that makes the most sense to me, as a description of rational motives behind Kim's behavior. Basically, it's all about pressuring China. It seems the latest nuke test was timed to embarrass Xi Jinping just as a major economic summit was meeting in China, and some of the other missile tests were timed for impact in China, not US holidays. To summarize the article:

“Kim knows that Xi has the real power to affect the calculus in Washington,” said Peter Hayes, the director of the Nautilus Institute, a research group that specializes in North Korea. “He’s putting pressure on China to say to Trump: ‘You have to sit down with Kim Jong-un.’”

What Mr. Kim wants most, Mr. Hayes said, is talks with Washington that the North Korean leader hopes will result in a deal to reduce American troops in South Korea and leave him with nuclear weapons. And in Mr. Kim’s calculation, China has the influence to make that negotiation happen.

Kim wants US forces either reduced or completely out of South Korea, he's not just looking for a deterrent to regime change in NK. And it looks like he'll keep stretching the limits with provocation until that happens.

The real questions going forward, as I see it, is whether both Kim and Trump would accept just a halt to joint military exercises with SK, in return for a halt to missile and nuke tests. Or will Kim keep pushing the button and insist on actual US troop/asset withdrawals in SK. That ain't gonna happen, but a cessation of exercises might be do-able. The question is whether that's enough for Kim to halt further testing. That should be the US goal (IMO), because what he's got now in the way of a physics package and missile system isn't very good, and will only get better if they can keep testing.

[MPN11]

In the context of NoK 'regime change', what on earth could follow Kim anyway? The entire nation seems completely indoctrinated/suppressed, so anyone sticking their hand up as a successor would surely only last 5 minutes.

And who would that person be anyway? A NoK General with his uniform covered in bottle tops? WHO could succeed, if Kim died of an overdose of cheese?

But ... I do half buy the concept of "You all back off and we will stop testing". Brinkmanship at it's finest, with Trump having a finger of the "ENOUGH" button. My fear, which I am sure is shared by many, is that Trump will launch a pre-emptive conventional strike against the NoK nuclear facility[ies].

[Marchettiman]

Maybe this is nothing to do with international posturing, it's just that Kim il Fatwun fancies Ivana like crazy and is doing a display of showing off his big-boys' toys hoping she will ditch Trumpie and they then run off to a life of hedonistic bliss in his new villa on the Costa North Korea?

[Melchett01]

Photonic,

Thanks for the NY Times link, some very interesting pieces in there in addition to the one you originally posted.

Amongst the available pieces is a short VLOG describing the US' missile defence capabilities. It made the cogs turn a bit more after I had been thinking whilst out for a pre-dinner walk - does the UK need to bring back the SAM capability we used to have. And by that, I don't mean reinventing Bloodhound, or buying a few more Rapier or VSHORAD systems such as we saw deployed during the Olympics. But a new up to date system capable of dealing with threats such as those posed by ICBMs or ALCMs which I suspect are more likely than sqns of BLACKJACKs and BEARs in the North Sea.

Even during my time in, our AD capabilities have been pared back, both numerically and in terms of platforms that are multirole jacks of all trade. Whilst North Korea is half a world away, and KJU hasn't specifically threatened the UK mainland - yet, that half the world away shrinks somewhat if you lob an ICBM over the Pole. Even if we were to rely on US interceptors in Alaska to cover off the Polar route, that is but one threat. I can imagine Iran will be watching how this plays out very carefully and who's to say that other threats won't emerge in the coming years. Those who were until recently touting Afghanistan as 'the war rather than a war', were I fear sucked into what in reality was a low level policing action; there are far greater potential existential threats out there. Are we match fit AD wise across the full spectrum of threats? (a hypothetical question rather than asking for specific detail).

[PrivtPilotRadarTech]

In the context of NoK 'regime change', what on earth could follow Kim anyway?
No obvious resolution, which is why every president up to now has just gone with the least-risky option- containment. The stakes are rapidly becoming a lot higher. Fat Wun's motivation is maintaining or increasing his hold on NK, and his prestige. He's not suicidal. Starting a war would be suicide, so he doesn't really want that. However, if he's ever in a situation where he has nothing to lose, he'll go for it. Might as well go out with a bang.
Maybe this is a case where having a president who's nuts is an advantage. "Our Fat One is crazier than your Fat Wun." Let them be the sane ones for a change.

[tartare]

New development (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-icbm/north-korea-seen-moving-icbm-grade-rocket-towards-west-coast-media-idUSKCN1BG081)as we speak.
And this after China's `stern representations' too.

[Pontius Navigator]

Following on from MPN, as very few of the population will have any memory of life before war, would they have any vestiges of free will to become refugees, or if they do, would they dare as it would be disloyal to the leadership with all that entails.

[Pontius Navigator]

New development (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-icbm/north-korea-seen-moving-icbm-grade-rocket-towards-west-coast-media-idUSKCN1BG081)as we speak.
And this after China's `stern representations' too.


Covert movement of rocket to west coast.

[tartare]

One thing no-one's opined on so far, is what the plan might be after a conventional US strike.
A few days of carnage as Seoul's northern suburbs are shelled.
Perhaps a successful ballistic missile or three launched at other SK cities, or Japan, or Guam.
Tens of thousands dead.
Before the North's army is laregly obliterated and Kim and team taken out.
And then...
Mass refugee exodus to China?
Would the US and SK occupy the North - particularly after the disaster of Iraq?
Would there be any appetite from SK to re-unify?
Would the Chinese invade to stop them?
Presumably Putin wouldn't want a bar of the issue...

[Pontius Navigator]

Before the North's army is laregly obliterated and Kim and team taken out.

And then...

Mass refugee exodus to China?

The first is easier said than done. The population may not dare becoming refugees.

These are not unwilling Arab conscripts and the terrain is not ideal open desert. Think Afg writ large with well equipped troops possibly well trained and fanatical fighting for the only life they know.

We might like to think they are an oppressed people hoping for salvation from American cruise missiles but we thought that of Iraq, Syria etc and have forgotten Vietnam.

[Blacksheep]

It is being said that Kim Jun Il is taking note of what happened to Ghadafi as regards regime change and going nuclear is his way of protecting himself and his regime. But that is not directly comparable. The overthrow of Ghadafi was triggered internally, with the west assisting with air supremacy. Saddam is a more comparable case - he was overthrown because he was actively threatening US and Western Interests. By aggressively testing missiles and carrying out nuclear weapons testing Kim Jun Il is threatening the US and thereby setting himself up as the next candidate for regime change.

We are not looking at an Afghanistan or even a Vietnam situation, and especially not an invasion. We are looking at dealing with massive troop concentrations and known nuclear facility locations. Prime targets for MOAB. How many does the US have? Is that what POTUS actually means by "fire and fury"? The recent use of MOAB against entrenched Taliban positions in Afghanistan always looked like an operational test of the weapon - and it appears to have been very effective.

[Above The Clouds]

Covert movement of rocket to west coast.

Not very covert considering its all over the tinternet :hmm:

[tartare]

Being reported here on evening news that said missile may possibly be aimed at Guam... not sure of accuracy of sources.
Trump is due to call Turnbull tomorrow morning.
Pine Gap will be essential in providing SIGINT I would imagine.
I reckon if they fired it at Guam, the US would try to shoot it down, while simultaneously striking the launch site.
MOAB? Possibly. But wouldn't this be a cruise missile conflict in early stages?

Update - for Northern hemisphere friends who may just be waking up - Putin issues a statement saying sanctions have been exhausted.

[MPN11]

New development (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-icbm/north-korea-seen-moving-icbm-grade-rocket-towards-west-coast-media-idUSKCN1BG081)as we speak.
And this after China's `stern representations' too.... thus enabling a launch on a southerly track towards/over Iwo Jima? Fewer people in that direction to make a big fuss, for sure, although hopefully not too close to Taiwan ;)

Nice to see their 'covert' movement wasn't as covert as they might have wished :)

[ShotOne]

"Cruise missile conflict in early stages..?" If there were to be a conflict it would make no sense for either side to have "early stages"; rather a massive all-out initial attack

[tartare]

...errr yes. Conducted primarily by cruise missiles....

[ORAC]

They're paranoid and they watch the news. Everything of military value - plus the leadership - lives in deep hardened bunkers against which cruise missiles are ineffective. You need MOP (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator) not MOAB

https://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/gbu-57-550-7.jpg?quality=85&strip=info&w=550

[Basil]

Not very covert considering its all over the tinternet :hmm:
Hmm, recollect the Japs 'moved'* all their assets to the east end of the Johore Strait before attacking on the west.

*Half a dozen trucks with lights on heading east; turn lights off, go back west and repeat until dawn. With hindsight, pretty obvious stuff but it worked.

[tdracer]

I think it would start out one of two ways - a precision weapon to take out the ICBM pre-launch (and hope Phat Wun gets the message), or it would be shock and awe - massive nearly simultaneous attack with cruise missiles and stealth bombers to take out the air defenses, quickly followed by nearly every available aircraft carrying as much as they can carry.
Don't fool yourself, North Korea is probably the most thoroughly mapped area on earth, with every suspected weapon site cataloged. I suspect a fair number of drones are monitoring NK as I write this (and they have pretty good night capabilities, quite different from the 1940s)

[recceguy]

So we will have a war in Korea, then in Ukraine/ Baltic States with Russia, another one in Syria, not forgetting Afghanistan and Irak, also with Iran of course... and maybe we should start something in Myanmar (our medias are becoming adamant that we should do something there) Quite busy in Africa too.
No wonder we will need more and more surrogates to do the job.
Shall we have enough carriers ?

And tdracer, OK you seem quite enthusiastic - but you go first, and we follow you.

[Wensleydale]

What its all about....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MSc-A7ko5g

[tdracer]

And tdracer, OK you seem quite enthusiastic - but you go first, and we follow you.

Where exactly did you get that I'm enthusiastic (for the record I'm not, but I'm seeing a reduction in the viable options to deal with the Phat Wun)? I'm simply spelling out what I see as the two likely scenarios should things actually come to blows.
In fact I'm going to be in Seoul next week so I rather hope it doesn't come to that.

[Torquelink]

China must be the only player who can resolve the issue without major bloodshed - if they wanted to. Worst case, they could remove Little Phat Un and simultaneously issue a stark warning to whichever military leaders are left to just sit on their hands and stop messing with nuclear stuff or Beijing will sort the lot of them out. They'd probably be relieved!

[Not_a_boffin]

China must be the only player who can resolve the issue without major bloodshed - if they wanted to. Worst case, they could remove Little Phat Un and simultaneously issue a stark warning to whichever military leaders are left to just sit on their hands and stop messing with nuclear stuff or Beijing will sort the lot of them out. They'd probably be relieved!


Which of course begs the question, why aren't they? They can't really believe that the SCS issue is going to be an offset deal from sorting out KJU.....can they?

[Torquelink]

Which of course begs the question, why aren't they? They can't really believe that the SCS issue is going to be an offset deal from sorting out KJU.....can they?


That would be a suitably devious and, insofar as realpolitik goes, practical solution. But would Trump go for it? Perhaps - when he realises that the bluster has run out and it's compromise with China or start a war . .

[West Coast]

they could remove Little Phat Un

What would that look like operationally? Fat Wun armed with nukes would be just as displeased with the Chinese for trying to unseat him as he is with the US. Back against the wall, those weapons could just as easily fly towards towards the Chinese with devastating consequences.

What magic weapon do the Chinese possess that will pacify chubby while simultaneously having him stand down? The Chinese are just as much at risk of NK's nuclear rath as everyone else.

[Torquelink]

West Coast,

I was thinking that he would be removed "surgically" by an undercover team or by precision munition while simultaneously issuing a warning to the rest of the officer class in unequivocal terms that any attempt to retaliate would result in their immediately ceasing to exist - I imagine the N Korean hierarchy would be more inclined to believe that Beijing would carry out such a threat rather than Trump given the collateral damage to S Korea?

[West Coast]

The US and SK have the same capabilities to dispatch chubby as you've described yet the experts still predict an apocalyptic outcome. Is your belief that somehow the norks won't retaliate against the Chinese?

The likely outcome I see would be a war between neighbors, no matter who initiates.

[ORAC]

Do you think the NK chain of command would wait for an investigation to find out who did it? Especially since whoever did would use misdirection to make it look like someone else anyway.....

[Photonic]

Decapitation of the leadership is not an option from the Chinese perspective. It would lead to chaos, refugees, and the high probability of a reunification of the peninsula under SK rule (either that, or war with the US if they try to prevent it).

China would rather have an unstable NK as a buffer, than a unified Korea with a US ally and US military assets right on the border with China.

[Thaihawk]

Decapitation of the leadership is not an option from the Chinese perspective. It would lead to chaos, refugees, and the high probability of a reunification of the peninsula under SK rule (either that, or war with the US if they try to prevent it).

China would rather have an unstable NK as a buffer, than a unified Korea with a US ally and US military assets right on the border with China.

If the NK regime was to be toppled and Seoul took control of all of Korea, I'm sure there would be an agreement with the Chinese that no US troops would be based in former NK terrortory, on a similar basis to the agreement reached with the Russians when Germany was re-unified.

Should the NK regime dissappear in the coming years, military spending in the south would also likely be cut.

The way it looks at present, this is going to get much worse, and the endgame may well not be that far off.

Expats streaming out of Incheon yet?.

[Heathrow Harry]

Thai

No doubt the chinese will note the success of the agreement that no nato forces would be stationed in E Germany..'.

[yellowtriumph]

I have to ask, and I know I will be heavily jumped on, but why does China worry about a US presence directly up against it's border? Surely no-one thinks that the US is at all interested in any form of military action against the Chinese. I ask in all honesty, please explain this to me.

[Photonic]

Aside from a natural desire not to have another superpower's military right on your borders (remember the Cuban Missile Crisis?), I think the main reason China doesn't want a unified Korea is that their big near-term ambition is to replace the US as the dominant Naval power in the region. They're also trying to expand offshore territorial boundaries to lock up mineral and fishing rights, like those artificial island projects in the South China Sea.

A unified Korea might mean an even larger US Navy presence with access to more Korean ports, along with conflicts involving mineral and fishing rights with a unified Korea. So it may be more about what's happening offshore, than worrying about US tanks on the border with China.

[West Coast]

And a major distraction to the US gone would mean more focus on China and its activities.

[clean32]

West Coast,

I was thinking that he would be removed "surgically" by an undercover team or by precision munition while simultaneously issuing a warning to the rest of the officer class in unequivocal terms that any attempt to retaliate would result in their immediately ceasing to exist - I imagine the N Korean hierarchy would be more inclined to believe that Beijing would carry out such a threat rather than Trump given the collateral damage to S Korea?


unfortunately, if you look at history, assassination has never achieved much and more often than not made matters worse. IE a less secure leader filling a vacuum will need more bluster to strengthen there position. Nor will you see such a vacuum filling leader turn to the Murders of his previous sovereign leader for hep because quite simply the act of assassination demonstrates more strongly that the enemy is a real enemy.

[DirtyProp]

This situation has degenerated too much, I'm afraid.
The policy of appeasement for the sake of quiet living - albeit temporarily - only creates monsters in the long term.

[Torquelink]

Decapitation of the leadership is not an option from the Chinese perspective. It would lead to chaos, refugees, and the high probability of a reunification of the peninsula under SK rule (either that, or war with the US if they try to prevent it).

China would rather have an unstable NK as a buffer, than a unified Korea with a US ally and US military assets right on the border with China.

But a nutter with nukes who, as per comments above, might use them equally against China or the US. I suspect that the US and SK would rather have a demilitarised, China-occupied, NK rather than Little Phat Un building more and more nukes and delivery vehicles with the increasingly likely possibility that his delusions will drive him to use them.

[MPN11]

Would China be pleased to have to feed 25 million North Koreans?

[Kobus Dune]

So we will have a war in Korea, then in Ukraine/ Baltic States with Russia, another one in Syria, not forgetting Afghanistan and Irak, also with Iran of course... and maybe we should start something in Myanmar (our medias are becoming adamant that we should do something there) Quite busy in Africa too.
No wonder we will need more and more surrogates to do the job.
Shall we have enough carriers ?

And tdracer, OK you seem quite enthusiastic - but you go first, and we follow you.

I think you forgot Venezuela ... :ok:

[pax britanica]

Recce you left out t he EU invading Uk while America is pre occupied elsewhere , lol.

Decapitation of Theresa tho might be an option as almost everyone seems to be in favour of her going.

And just for once we should stay way way out of it , we dont make the tiniest bit of difference in that part of the world anyway and have no money and very limited resources.

China and Russia both border NK so have a real problem with anything nuke like and i cannot see how nuking Pyong Yang and therefore Seoul too would be something the US should do to an ally.

Would the NK mil really go along with the fat kid he is said lets go for it or would that be the point at which they would say enough is enough on the premise they would downscale their military but keep NK seperate from both RoK and China .

[Lonewolf_50]

pax brittanica: US nuking NK? Nope. That isn't why we have nukes. The conventional stuff we have suffices for whatever it is that might need doing there, but I would rather not see a war erupt in Korea. South Korea has too much to lose, and is a part of the regional and global economy.

[A_Van]

By doing nothing at the moment China may be just raising stakes in future talks with US.
Look at the trajectories: all of them (starting from NK) that end in continental US go over the Chinese territory. So, when the ability of the fat kid to through N-stuff over the Pacific is confirmed, China may invite US to chat in somewhat way like this:
We can buy the latest and greatest S-400 (or 500) from Russia and deploy them along the border. They can easily put down NK ICBMs even at the active (thrust) phase. Would you like us to do so? What would you give us in return (trade, shut up about islands in thee South sea, etc)? Not agree - OK you will have to clean up Alaska or/and Canada from debris at your own (if you are sure GBI can do their job 100%, which of course no one knows).

[West Coast]

We can buy the latest and greatest S-400 (or 500) from Russia

Never let a crisis go to waste.

[dead_pan]

Never let a crisis go to waste.

I'm sure the Chinese would fully respect Russia's intellectual property rights in this regard. No Peking inside!

[dead_pan]

Has anyone pointed out that it's nigh on impossible for the Norks to test their long-range missiles without them flying over someone? Just saying..

[yellowtriumph]

Aside from a natural desire not to have another superpower's military right on your borders (remember the Cuban Missile Crisis?), I think the main reason China doesn't want a unified Korea is that their big near-term ambition is to replace the US as the dominant Naval power in the region. They're also trying to expand offshore territorial boundaries to lock up mineral and fishing rights, like those artificial island projects in the South China Sea.

A unified Korea might mean an even larger US Navy presence with access to more Korean ports, along with conflicts involving mineral and fishing rights with a unified Korea. So it may be more about what's happening offshore, than worrying about US tanks on the border with China.

Some interesting points for me to think about, thank you.

[Basil]

I'm sure the Chinese would fully respect Russia's intellectual property rights in this regard. No Peking inside!
Very amusing :ok:

[Pontius Navigator]

And the guarantee would only last a year.

[A_Van]

dead pan,


Yes, they have to fly over somebody (China, Russia, Japan or SK). But the latest test (flying over Hokkaido) showed that Japanese skies are free. Just one more resolution from UN which they obviously consider a peanut gallery. I would not be surprised that the same very corridor would be later used to "play brackets" with Hawaii (nearly the same launch azimuth).

[Jackw106]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze27S4VMDO4

[Torquelink]

North Korea: How real is Seoul's assassination threat? - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41263242)

[tartare]

Pine Gap here... he's just squirted off another missile.
"The Security Council utterly condemns and calls for..."
So - bets on how long before Japan nukes up...

[Cazalet33]

Do these damned sanctions actually do any good?

Or do they simple cause a retrenchment and independent spirit of defiance?

A rather intelligent documentary series a decade ago gave a rather insightful look into the psychology of such matters, in three parts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMYPQVIl6JM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80GXhIMpS1w&t=108s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaGiYOuA11M

[chopper2004]

South Korea: North Korea launched missile over Japan - CNNPolitics (http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/14/asia/north-korea-missile-launch/index.html?adkey=bn)

[tartare]

Pretty profound series of films Caz.
Thanks for posting.

[Lyneham Lad]

Has no-one whispered the principles of MAD in to Kim Jong-un's shell-like - or has he just failed to grasp them?

[Just a spotter]

As a bit of “what-aboutery”, here’s an alternative possible hypothesis;

Kim has distanced himself and DPRK from the control of China, this for the Chinese is less that acceptable in their back yard as it reduces their comfort about both the stability of the peninsula and the certainty of a buffer from the "forces of democracy" in South Korea..

Either by accident or design, the west is now pushing China to reign in NK.

This presents China with an opportunity.

While the North Korean’s are looking south and east, China invades from the north and west … toppling the Kim dynasty and replacing it with a more agreeable regime. On the way out, in order to assure future compliance, the PLA establish a base or two including a naval presence on the Korean east coast, along the Sea of Japan, something China currently lacks.

What does China gain? i) A chance to test its military capability, ii) removes a burdensome nuisance on its southern flank, iii) presents itself as helping the rest of the world, iv) believes it has stabilised the DPRK (it could even go as far as taking steps to improve the lot of the average citizen) and v) gains a strategic base or two along the way.

Not quite the Win-Win the West might have hoped for, but still, a problem removed.

JAS

[MPN11]

Interesting perspactive, Just a spotter.

Although ... would China want to become an overt aggressor, despite your reasonable outline, when it's World trade is so important?

[Procrastinus]

Perhaps George W Bush had the right answer to threats from Pakistan - 'I'll send your whole country back to the Middle Ages.'

For N. Korea - One more step and nuke them!!

[Lord Riot]

Forgive my naivety, being a civvie, but why can't we (or the Americans, or even the Russians if they want to) use a covert special forces team to assassinate the North Korean leader? Or use satellites, spies, etc to pinpoint his location and take him out with a well aimed precision strike?

Or am I in the realms of fantasy there? But if I am, why? Surely with our (the 'West') resources and technology, it must be possible to do something like that, especially as he doesn't seem to hide himself in caves or underground like terrorist leaders.

[Rosevidney1]

I would like to see the US Navy engage and destroy a missile once it had cleared Japanese or South Korean territory - but not reveal their action. The North Koreans can't have radar coverage so far from land so they could think their missile was at fault. The question this raises is - what would they do next? Step up launches or not?

[onion]

UN=League of Nations

[West Coast]

China invades from the north and west

unless your belief is a couple of border guards with sidearms will stealthily remove the fat wun, do you believe the Norks won't somehow notice the build up of forces on their border? You think the Norks haven't noticed the degrading relationship with the Chinese? The Chinese have been on the receiving end of NK propaganda, so they are willing to bite the hand that feeds them.

Knowing that your idea would require a significant build up of forces to assure success, which would attract attention, do you think the fat wun wouldn't unleash his nuclear fury on the Chinese if he believed they were intent on unseating him? What's to stop him?

[A_Van]

Lord Riot,


Such an operation only makes sense when there is (yet in a dark shadow) a prepared and well-controlled opposition group with appropriate leader that would quicky take and hold the power. This is to avoid chaos. Otherwise, one bad fat Un would be replaced by even worse one. Looks like such an alternative is not yet ready. And anyway, it is only China who can raise such figures, not US, Russia, Europe, to say nothing about Japan and SK who are hatred by definition in NK.

[Fareastdriver]

do you believe the Norks won't somehow notice the build up of forces on their border?

The Allied forces didn't notice it in October 1950.

The Chinese already have substantial forces in that part of China. Historically because of Korea but also confronting Russia when they weren't pals.

[Heathrow Harry]

"one bad fat Un would be replaced by even worse one"

Thats a frightenign thought - that the Young Leader isn't the worst of the pack..................

[ORAC]

The usual result in such circumstances is chaos - as in Iraq, Libya or Rumania. Dictators have a strong habit and incentive in eliminating anyone with the ability or character to be a suitable replacement and promoting yes men instead.

[Heathrow Harry]

Romania didn't decline into chaos - it had a relatively simple trip form Dictatorship to a communist/socialist/ military Govt and eventually became a (sort-of) democracy albeit with high levels of corruption

In fact the beloved Leader and his Mrs were shot BECAUSE the other power groups wanted their mouths firmly closed ................

[unmanned_droid]

I'm still not sure that Kim isn't just a puppet for the generals and/or committees

[West Coast]

Fareastdriver.

This isn't 1950, surveillance capabilities are a wee bit better. Not exactly sure why you'd even attempt to make a comparison. All they'd have to do is monitor western 24 hr cable channels

And yes, Chinese forces were known to the UN prior to entering NK. The Chinese telegraphed the move.

[DirtyProp]

US Flies Stealth Fighters, Bombers Over Korean Peninsula For Drill: Seoul (http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-bombers-fighter-jets-in-bombing-drill-over-korean-peninsula-south-korea-1751647)

And

US: N Korea to be 'destroyed' if behaviour continues
UN Ambassador Haley warns Pyongyang 'a whole lot of military options' are being considered to defend US and allies.
US: N Korea to be 'destroyed' if behaviour continues | USA News | Al Jazeera (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/ambassador-north-korea-destroyed-170917182139388.html)

Will the lardy lunatic back down? I doubt it.

[Thomas coupling]

How many rockets has the Phat Wun launched since puberty?
How much does each cost?
Where does all this money come from as they don't sell anything?
Has he got any money/rockets left?
Why hasn't anyone 'flannelled' him with some toxic chemical FFS?

[SARF]

https://goo.gl/images/JloLjd
Knock off everything except defence and bob's your uncle

[KenV]

The Allied forces didn't notice it in October 1950.Ummmm, no. The Chinese build up of forces was well observed and well known. The powers that be just assumed the Chinese would never actually attack because it was assumed such an attack was certain to trigger a nuclear response from the US. Nine bombs complete with nuclear cores and nuclear capable delivery B-29 bombers were forward deployed to Okinawa. But the Chinese figured the US was bluffing and attacked. The Chinese were right. No nukes ever made it into the Korean theater.

It was probably just as well, because over a 160 kilotons of conventional bombs had been dropped on North Korea. There were very few significant targets left.

[KenV]

How many rockets has the Phat Wun launched since puberty?
How much does each cost?
Where does all this money come from as they don't sell anything?
Has he got any money/rockets left?
Why hasn't anyone 'flannelled' him with some toxic chemical FFS?Ummm, no. North Korea exports lots and lots of coal as well as other minerals. Mostly to China. They also export technology. Iran has reportedly paid huge bucks for North Korean nuclear and rocket technology.

[chopper2004]

It gets better :E:E

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/19/why-trumps-threat-to-totally-destroy-north-korea-is-extraordinary-even-for-him/

[Lonewolf_50]

I do not care for Mr Trump's rhetorical style. I prefer TR's "walk softly and carry a big stick." I see a bit too much trash talk, and a bit too much "reality TV" to be happy with style.
The fact is, yeah, if a can of whoopass is to be opened, it's rather bad to be on the wrong side of it.
Without Russian and Chinese support, however, since we live in a multi power, multi polar world, there are some side effects to whoopass cans being opened that I hope Mr Trump is aware of.

[DirtyProp]

Ummm, no. North Korea exports lots and lots of coal as well as other minerals. Mostly to China. They also export technology. Iran has reportedly paid huge bucks for North Korean nuclear and rocket technology.And let's not forget massive, ginormous statues loved by somewhat democratic leaders:

North Korea's 'biggest' export - giant statues - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35569277)

The lardy Kim isn't budging yet:

North Korea says sanctions will accelerate nuclear programme - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41309774)

[KenV]

I do not care for Mr Trump's rhetorical style. I prefer TR's "walk softly and carry a big stick." Me too.

Sadly, over a half century of experience shows that that style does not work for the North Koreans. It goes right over their head. Let's see if "trash talk" along with some very obvious military shows of force is more effective. I suspect not, but it's worth a try. But if this is not effective, the alternative is downright grim.

[Treble one]

I'm hoping the the people who are really in charge of the US Military (ie the Generals) are advising the President that a pre-emptive strike would probably not be the best action in the circumstances.


I'm also hoping that they are advising that in the event of NK lobbing something in the general direction of Guam, then any retaliatory action should be proportionate.


Its a tad worrying when 'General Ripper' is the C in C rather than the 'mad general'.

[tdracer]

I'm also hoping that they are advising that in the event of NK lobbing something in the general direction of Guam, then any retaliatory action should be proportionate.
Actually, I'm hoping that the cronies surrounding the young Phat Un are warning him the response could be anything but "proportionate" - if NK detonates a nuke anywhere outside of NK, expect NK to cease to exist.
I really think that's the only thing young Phat Un understands...

[flash8]

I believe the Phat Un is actually a pretty shrewd guy, as are his cronies, playing Trump for all its worth knowing ultimately the US will certainly not go pre-emptive given the huge risks involved.

Trump on the other hand is an utter buffoon as are Nikki Haley and the others threatening all sorts of **** only to back down.. then threaten... then cajole... then threaten... the narrative coming from the US is pretty unstable.. worrying.. but ultimately toothless.

My only real worry is the Trump ego wildcard... admittedly a long shot but cannot be discounted.

[TURIN]

do you think the fat wun wouldn't unleash his nuclear fury on the Chinese if he believed they were intent on unseating him? What's to stop him?

M.A.D!

Isn't that the whole point of having nukes in the first place?

[ORAC]

Japan braces as North Korea threatens hydrogen bomb test in Pacific (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/21/kim-jong-un-trump-north-korea-threats)

Japan must brace itself for the possible launch of a nuclear-armed North Korean missile over its territory if the regime carries out a threat to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean, Japan’s defence minister has warned. Itsunori Onodera said such a test could involve a nuclear device mounted on a medium-range or intercontinental ballistic missile. “We cannot deny the possibility it may fly over our country,” Onodera said, hours after the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, said Donald Trump would “pay dearly” for threatening to destroy his regime.

The prospect of a major escalation in tensions in the region rose after North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, said Pyongyang could respond to Trump’s recent threat of military action by testing a powerful nuclear weapon in the Pacific. Ri, who is due to address the UN general assembly at the weekend, told reporters in New York: “It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un.”

Earlier, in an unprecedented personal statement, Kim said that he was considering retaliating at the “highest level” after Trump warned that the US would “totally destroy North Korea” if Washington was forced to defend itself or its allies. Earlier this month, North Korea detonated a powerful hydrogen bomb at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the north-east of the country. The explosion caused a 6.3 magnitude earthquake that was felt over the Chinese border in Yanji.

Testing a nuclear device beyond its own borders would mark a major escalation in tensions over the regime’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes. Analysts said a nuclear test involving a missile could be “truly terrifying” if something goes wrong. An atmospheric nuclear test of the kind that has only ever been conducted by the US and China could pose a risk to aircraft and shipping, even if the North declares a keep-out zone, according to Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategy expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And if the test doesn’t go according to plan, you could have population at risk, too,” Narang added. “We are talking about putting a live nuclear warhead on a missile that has been tested only a handful of times. It is truly terrifying if something goes wrong.”

Speculation is growing that North Korea will add to its robust verbal response to Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday with a military provocation, possibly a test of a Hwasong-14 missile, which is theoretically capable of reaching Hawaii and Alaska. Chung Sung-yoon, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said there was a “very high possibility” that Kim would follow through with a provocation of some sort.............

In a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency, Kim called Trump “mentally deranged” and warned him that he would “pay dearly for issuing threats to the regime during his maiden UN general assembly speech on Tuesday......

The North Korea leader is thought to be the first of three generations of the Kim dynasty to publicly read out a statement aimed at the international community in his own name. South Korea’s unification ministry said neither Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, nor his grandfather - and North Korean founder - Kim Il-sung, had issued a similar statement.

Kim said Trump’s remarks had convinced him “that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last”. He added that he was “thinking hard” about his response, but vowed that Trump would “pay dearly for his speech calling for totally destroying” North Korea. “Action is the best option in treating the dotard, who, hard of hearing, is uttering only what he wants to say,” he said. “Now that Trump has denied the existence of and insulted me and my country in front of the eyes of the world and made the most ferocious declaration of a war in history that he would destroy [North Korea], we will consider with seriousness exercising of a corresponding, highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history.”

His lengthy criticism of Trump ended: “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire.”.......

[Treble one]

If Fat Wun carries out an atmospheric nuclear test then his goose is cooked cos the Russians and Chinese would then not be able to stand back and watch?

The Donald would probably have no opposition to him demolishing the North with his considerable assets.

The real danger is that Fat Wun surely knows this, so his test may be in the general direction of Guam....

[GeeRam]

The real danger is that Fat Wun surely knows this, so his test may be in the general direction of Guam....

But its the trajectory path to Guam pretty much down the whole length of SK, so any missile to there could be seen as being against SK......surely he's not that silly!?

However, his last two fired off between the Japanese islands is very close to the trajectory path required to get to Hawaii.......:uhoh:

[Yamagata ken]

The target will be Japan. That will test the ''alliance''.

[Heathrow Harry]

Treble One

I cant see why russia or china would respond to NK firing an icbm and an a bomb into the pacific.... doesn't change the politics for them

[WillowRun 6-3]

Phat Wun might have launchers and big ka-booms but: it just happens to be a quite, quite closely guarded secret as to what else in the nature of military systems and weapons platforms he has at his disposal and as to which there are reasonable odds, statistically, of operational success if deployed. The "politics", H. Harry? - that's the part above the surface only. The prospects of something like a quasi-, or even partial, Kessler syndrome event in space systems from an atmospheric test are enough to warrant serious consideration of taking the entire military regime down, and taking it down now. Yes, pre-emptive strike.

[Treble one]

Treble One

I cant see why russia or china would respond to NK firing an icbm and an a bomb into the pacific.... doesn't change the politics for them

Indeed. But it would probably be enough to allow them to turn a blind eye to any conventional strike that aimed to destroy NK?

[A_Van]

....But it would probably be enough to allow them to turn a blind eye to any conventional strike that aimed to destroy NK?



IMHO, yes, a blind "military" eye. Lots of shouts from UN through the "greens", league for sexual reforms and other old curiosity shops that would, however, vanish in the air in a couple of years.


Nevertheless, as discussed many times here in this thread - what to do with millions of civilians in Seoul and around? Mad hamster's conventional artillery and MLRS systems can do lots of harm even in the first round.

[West Coast]

I cant see why russia or china would respond to NK firing an icbm and an a bomb into the pacific.... doesn't change the politics for them

I don't think you've gamed that out very far. It raises the potential for the US and allies to act, which in turn changes the politics for China and Russia, both of which would have a rudderless state on their border.

[Heathrow Harry]

And maybe a million refugees......

The russians and the chinese would no doubt be very happy to see regime change and they know a lot more about NK than we do.. If they can't see how to do it without bringing on catastrophe why do we think we can do better?

Given how well we forecast outcomes in Iran & Afghanistan'............

[taxydual]

And in the background, I believe that secret squirrel talks are being held that, basically, revolve around the Norks saying to the rest of the worlds governments "Give us a gazillion dollars and we won't launch any more".

The rest of the world pays the gazillion dollars on the QT. Problem over.

Then. in 2 years or so, the Norks start the whole process again.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-minister/south-korea-approves-aid-to-north-korea-north-calls-trump-barking-dog-idUSKCN1BW08B

[Heathrow Harry]

Still might be cheaper than turning the korean peninsula into a wasteland........

[KiloB]

Still might be cheaper than turning the korean peninsula into a wasteland........

There are only two long term options.
1. Get the cross-hairs on fatwun.
2. Turn some of the Korean Peninsula into a wasteland.

ALL other options just buy time and make the final outcome worse, as NK gets more and more tooled-up.

[A_Van]

Still might be cheaper than turning the korean peninsula into a wasteland........





Being always skeptical about usual blah-blah of various "foreign offices" (US, Russian, China, etc), I have to admit in this particular case that military action against NK is a bad option. However, since the situation was not resolved earlier, it would not be resolved if the same policy is in use now and onwards.

Therefore, HH's words "still might be cheaper" seem to me quite wise. Germany paid hundreds B's for reunification but I doubt there is even 1% there who have regrets now.

I recall there was time during the reign of the previous Kim when NK and SK started talking, exchanging visits of family members, even some sort of joint ventures were tried. If at that time (no N-stuff yet, no ICBMs in NK) some serious efforts were undertaken to "contain" NK in one way or another, there were chances it would yield a success. Yes, the price (in USD) might be bloody high, but first, the cost would be shared among SK, Japan, perhaps US and even China and Russia. And, second, future costs to produce, deploy and operate all those PAC, THAAD and SM-3 systems would be significantly less (and still LockMart and Raytheon would survive). IMHO 10-15-20 years ago wrong forecasts from various military analysts (who wrote that NK would not have toys in the foreseeable future that it already has now) contributed heavily to the decision of doing nothing except for sanctions. Why to pay if it is all bluff? Now we see that not all was/is bluff.

IMHO, a realistic option now is to switch from anger to patience and careful hard everyday work "under the carpet", instead of escalating rhetoric promising quick and total elimination and so on. Bad fat Un is "joining the club", this is the reality. And he will fully join, in two or five years - does not matter in the long run. Is it the end of the world? No. When Pakistan was in that situation, it also looked very dangerous.

Of course, sanctions should be in place, but serious efforts should be concentrated in another direction as the current one leads to nowhere. E.g., focus on China, press them (in a strict confidence) to start actively but carefully working on erosion of the current NK regime, fostering potential alternatives and at a certain point of time replace/remove the "rocket guy". China itself,comparing times of Mao and guys in charge in XXI century - are different countries. That is, such a change is doable in that part of the planet. But neither US, nor Russia nor Europe can do that. Yes, it will definitely take not less than 15-20 years. Still better that converting the whole peninsula to a wasteland with death of millions of innocent lives and triggering other conflicts because the value of human life all over the planet would be decreased.

[Brian W May]

Can't we convince the Islamic State that North Korea is a perfect place for them . . . Fatty-un can have them . . . all . . . free and what's more the West and the Rest would be delighted.

All the mad bastards in one basket . . .

[Heathrow Harry]

Good idea but Fatty is wise enough to stay out of the Mid-East.. he's mad but not crazy....

[SWBKCB]

There are only two long term options.
1. Get the cross-hairs on fatwun.
2. Turn some of the Korean Peninsula into a wasteland.

A_Van is right. Surely the only long term solution is the East/West Germany one? Use soft power to let NK know what it is missing and turn them against their leaders.

[Herod]

It didn't work for East Germany. It was the collapse of Communism and the USSR that gave the opportunity to demolish the wall. When everyone is spying on everyone else, and radio/TV that can receive signals from the west are banned, there is no easy way to show the people of the North what they are missing, and certainly no way (at the moment) to establish a freedom movement.

[CONSO]

...there is no easy way to show the people of the North what they are missing, and certainly no way (at the moment) to establish a freedom movement...

Sure there is- drop via cruise missiles a few million iphones or equiv with linked comm to an overhead satelite to give access to the rest of the world. Cost would be trivial compasred to the alternatives.

[air pig]

Japan braces as North Korea threatens hydrogen bomb test in Pacific (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/21/kim-jong-un-trump-north-korea-threats)

Japan must brace itself for the possible launch of a nuclear-armed North Korean missile over its territory if the regime carries out a threat to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean, Japan’s defence minister has warned. Itsunori Onodera said such a test could involve a nuclear device mounted on a medium-range or intercontinental ballistic missile. “We cannot deny the possibility it may fly over our country,” Onodera said, hours after the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, said Donald Trump would “pay dearly” for threatening to destroy his regime.

The prospect of a major escalation in tensions in the region rose after North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, said Pyongyang could respond to Trump’s recent threat of military action by testing a powerful nuclear weapon in the Pacific. Ri, who is due to address the UN general assembly at the weekend, told reporters in New York: “It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un.”

Earlier, in an unprecedented personal statement, Kim said that he was considering retaliating at the “highest level” after Trump warned that the US would “totally destroy North Korea” if Washington was forced to defend itself or its allies. Earlier this month, North Korea detonated a powerful hydrogen bomb at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the north-east of the country. The explosion caused a 6.3 magnitude earthquake that was felt over the Chinese border in Yanji.

Testing a nuclear device beyond its own borders would mark a major escalation in tensions over the regime’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes. Analysts said a nuclear test involving a missile could be “truly terrifying” if something goes wrong. An atmospheric nuclear test of the kind that has only ever been conducted by the US and China could pose a risk to aircraft and shipping, even if the North declares a keep-out zone, according to Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategy expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And if the test doesn’t go according to plan, you could have population at risk, too,” Narang added. “We are talking about putting a live nuclear warhead on a missile that has been tested only a handful of times. It is truly terrifying if something goes wrong.”

Speculation is growing that North Korea will add to its robust verbal response to Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday with a military provocation, possibly a test of a Hwasong-14 missile, which is theoretically capable of reaching Hawaii and Alaska. Chung Sung-yoon, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said there was a “very high possibility” that Kim would follow through with a provocation of some sort.............

In a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency, Kim called Trump “mentally deranged” and warned him that he would “pay dearly for issuing threats to the regime during his maiden UN general assembly speech on Tuesday......

The North Korea leader is thought to be the first of three generations of the Kim dynasty to publicly read out a statement aimed at the international community in his own name. South Korea’s unification ministry said neither Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, nor his grandfather - and North Korean founder - Kim Il-sung, had issued a similar statement.

Kim said Trump’s remarks had convinced him “that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last”. He added that he was “thinking hard” about his response, but vowed that Trump would “pay dearly for his speech calling for totally destroying” North Korea. “Action is the best option in treating the dotard, who, hard of hearing, is uttering only what he wants to say,” he said. “Now that Trump has denied the existence of and insulted me and my country in front of the eyes of the world and made the most ferocious declaration of a war in history that he would destroy [North Korea], we will consider with seriousness exercising of a corresponding, highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history.”

His lengthy criticism of Trump ended: “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire.”.......

Who is to say for a test he would use a missile, take it out on a ship and launch a tethered balloon bomb attached, which was used on some of the UKs Grapple tests IIRC.

[West Coast]

Maybe that's why they say possible launch.

[Fareastdriver]

take it out on a ship and launch a tethered balloon bomb attached

It would never work. It would get run into by an American destroyer.

[Onceapilot]

BBC reporting that PRC are enforcing closure of all commercial links with DPRK within 120 days. If this actually is actioned, it would indicate some sense at last from PRC. Going on the previous actions of DPRK leadership though, it might mean they will lash-out soon! :sad:

OAP

[Lyneham Lad]

Flight Global - ANALYSIS: Fire and fury, the next Korean air war (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-fire-and-fury-the-next-korean-air-war-441382/)

and coincidentally on BBC News:-

North Korea 'hackers steal US-South Korea war plans' (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41565281)

[Lonewolf_50]

Of course they did, and they've been trying to get at them for some years in all likelihood. What's a bit of a puzzle is why the US/SK's are foolish enough to store them in that form after the Manning and Snowden follies. Goodness gracious, was that not enough of a clue? (And not even mentioning Equifax ...)
Dear Generals in the US for the past 10 years: did you hear that noise? That was "a clue" trying to beat down the door with a battle axe. (Further comments censored)

[taxydual]

Plans?.......I spit on your plans

?No Battle Plan Survives Contact With the Enemy? (http://www.lexician.com/lexblog/2010/11/no-battle-plan-survives-contact-with-the-enemy/)

T'was ever thus..............

[tartare]

Occam's Razor.
Cock-up, or conspiracy?
I know which I'd favour.

[Lantern10]

Sure there is- drop via cruise missiles a few million iphones or equiv with linked comm to an overhead satellite to give access to the rest of the world. Cost would be trivial compared to the alternatives.

Way, way to sensible, but you are correct.

[Heathrow Harry]

S korea has been doing that for yearts - but they shoot anyone found in possession....................

[Fareastdriver]

If there were computers and internet in 1944 the Germans would have hacked all the plans for the invasion of Calais.

[Maggie Island]

If there were computers and internet in 1944 the Germans would have hacked all the plans for the invasion of Calais.

And yet it was Turing who cracked Enigma!

[Heathrow Harry]

A point made by all the serious writers is that knowing exactly what the other guys are up to is no use if you can't do anything to interfere with their plans. Being able to track u-boats only became a war winner once we had carriers , frigates and lr strike to hit them

[T28B]

This story is of possible interest (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-a-homemade-tool-helped-north-koreas-missile-program/ar-AAtkE76?ocid=ientp)to those looking at the North Korean missile program.

[Bigpants]

Is it time to send Hans Blix to North Korea? Maybe to deliver a very angry letter?

[Brat]

Its what happens when Blix comes back like Otto Warmbier?

Or what happened to Iraq when Saddam decided not to co-operate with the inspectors. Baghdad having agreed to conditions then deceived, obstructed, and threatened international inspectors sent to dismantle and verify the destruction of its banned programs for the next eight years.

North Korea would seem to have been reluctant to co-operate in any way for rather longer.
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

[Heathrow Harry]

"Its what happens when Blix comes back"

The point was that Blix was of course correct - there were no weapons of mass destruction

We have spent zillions, killed millions, and wrecked a whole region because it didn't suit Bush and Bliar to believe him........

[jolihokistix]

Worth watching to hear some voices of ordinary North Koreans. Short and simple.
What's it like to live in North Korea? - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-41655015/what-s-it-like-to-live-in-north-korea)

[chopper2004]

North Korea: ?Hao Fan 6? ship banned by UN, then disappears (http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/north-korea-hao-fan-6-ship-banned-by-un-then-disappears/news-story/033d9f20cdd204d22ac481d7f4e39d52)

Could it be smuggling high tech banned stuff to the North or worse carrying something developed in a lab from there perhaps?

No surprises if various MPA are shadowing it when within range ?

Cheers

[Trim Stab]

My great Uncle was never one to follow the crowd. While imprisoned in a Japanese prisoner of war camp towards the end of WW2, he managed to send a signal to his mother (via the Red Cross) to invest his salary in Japanese futures. He was investigated by MI5, but cleared. His reasoning was that the Japanese were so utterly determined, intelligent, and disciplined that even if they lost the war they would become a major economic power. He bought a small number of shares in Mitsubishi, Yamaha, Suzuki and a couple of others. He died a near-billionaire a few years ago.

I have just come back from a trip to the China/ North Korea border with an investment banker friend.We invested an astucious percentage of our personal portfolios into Chinese companies who have legally-held investments in North Korea. We are convinced that even if North Korea is glassed over in the near future, in our lifetime it will emerge as an economic superpower, and our contemporary legal investments will be an important foothold for further investments in the future. North Korea has an abundance of the most important natural resource in the world - human IQ - as they lie at a crossroads between Japan, South Korea and Manchurian China (whose residents share highest average IQs in the world). They also have significant mineral resources, hydro-electric potential, tourist potential. As soon as North Korea reforms, it will become an economic super-power - and I am betting on it now with my money!

[Less Hair]

This level of confidence must be really rare these days.
For comparison: If one would have invested in former east german companies before the wall came down that would not have guaranteed any profits afterwards. Some, or actually most big "Kombinates" just vanished. Too big, no more market, not competitive, outdated, way too much staff, too high cost, management selected for party loyalty not for actual work qualification. Including Interflug airlines. They had some active general on top instead of a cost killer.
It's true you will find bright minds everywhere. But these are more small business owner type of guys or maybe some scientists.

[Brat]

"Its what happens when Blix comes back"

The point was that Blix was of course correct - there were no weapons of mass destruction

We have spent zillions, killed millions, and wrecked a whole region because it didn't suit Bush and Bliar to believe him........

Bulls do a lot of it.

[Heathrow Harry]

Brat

Are you suggesting there were WOMD?

That we didnt spend zillions or kill millions??

That the ME fell into 15 years of continuing mayhem & slaughter???

Or that Bush andBlair carry the responsibility????

[beardy]

Japan, South Korea and Manchurian China (whose residents share highest average IQs in the world)

Here we go again with completely unjustified statements. If you have an opinion, call it 'in my opinion' and we'll judge your statements accordingly, if you have a fact, justify it. In this case you can't.

[Fareastdriver]

Japan, South Korea and Manchurian China (whose residents share highest average IQs in the world).

Then why are they living with and moving around with appliances and vehicles invented by occidentals?

[BEagle]

Trim Stab wrote: North Korea has an abundance of the most important natural resource in the world - human IQ

If they're that bright, how is it that they're still suffering under the Kim dynasty?

Investing in Chinese companies with North Korean dealings? Wouldn't betting on the 3 card trick be less of a risk?

[A_Van]

My 10cents :

1. I doubt, too, that these NK folks have the highest IQ on the planet which they are so eager to destroy. Who made such measurements, I wonder. All those Kims would never allow such "imperialistic tricks" to be played with their slaves (well, comrades).

2. IQ itself does not mean much in terms of economic and social development. These are just tests, while the cognitive aspect as well as creativity are not addressed. E.g. we see many brilliant entrepreneurs in US (that drive the economy,) and not all of them, I assume, do have highest IQ in these tests.

3. I think we all know some people around us who are quite knowledgeable, have read megatons of books, but are losers in professional and everyday life.

[Brat]

Brat

Are you suggesting there were WOMD?

That we didnt spend zillions or kill millions??

That the ME fell into 15 years of continuing mayhem & slaughter???

Or that Bush andBlair carry the responsibility????

I am saying that you have a very simple viewpoint of what happened and why, and also doubt that anyone would be able to convince you otherwise.

So crack on and believe whatever you like.

[etudiant]

Trim Stab is on to something imho.
The people of NK have experienced tremendous adversity and nevertheless have overcome. Given a slight chance, they will astonish.

[West Coast]

How have they over come?

[NWSRG]

We recently had a missionary come to speak at our church, who had made it into North Korea as a 'tourist'. Hearing of the oppression first hand was chilling. On the train in from China, all the tourists had all electronic items removed and itemised (down to serial number apparently). All memory cards were checked on the way out for images that were not to be removed from the country. While inside, they were accompanied 100% of the time. There was zero free movement. They were taken to a school to see how wonderful the NK education system was, but apparently it was clearly staged for the day. He also spoke about workers being escorted from home to work, and then back again. The oppression is total. As is the darkness at night-time, when electricity supplies are rationed.

If NK is ever opened up, we (the developed world) desperately need a plan to help the people there cope with a new free world. They have no concept of the 21st century outside NK...I personally believe that China should (temporarily) adopt NK for a generation. While China is no perfect state, I honestly believe that full immersion into a modern western style world is something NK would struggle with...but maybe that's pessimistic. But for now, I just feel for the population there, who know only poverty while the Kims enjoy the trappings of luxury.

[Brat]

Trim Stab is on to something imho.
The people of NK have experienced tremendous adversity and nevertheless have overcome. Given a slight chance, they will astonish.
I take it you mean by clinging on to a miserable existence under the rule of a complete psychopathic despot.

Overcome what exactly?

Survival at all costs is an inbuilt protective mechanism.

To have to exercise it it todays world is a sad indictment of North Korean culture and advancement in human development.

[etudiant]

I take it you mean by clinging on to a miserable existence under the rule of a complete psychopathic despot.

Overcome what exactly?

Survival at all costs is an inbuilt protective mechanism.

To have to exercise it it todays world is a sad indictment of North Korean culture and advancement in human development.

No argument with anything you claim, but NK learned to survive during the Korean war, when NK was effectively bombed back to the stone age.
Since then, they have rebuilt and on a population of perhaps 25mm have managed to produce nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles, despite sanctions, embargoes and famines.
That is an impressive performance by any standard. So it is not unreasonable to expect more of the same when the war clouds lift.

[NutLoose]

Kim Jong-un's North Korea nuclear test mountain may collapse, let out 'many bad things' (http://www.smh.com.au/world/kim-jonguns-north-korea-nuclear-test-mountain-may-collapse-let-out-many-bad-things-20170905-gyb8dp.html)

I am sure if that happens China will have something to say with the close proximity.

[Trim Stab]

Here we go again with completely unjustified statements. If you have an opinion, call it 'in my opinion' and we'll judge your statements accordingly, if you have a fact, justify it. In this case you can't.

https://iq-research.info/en/page/average-iq-by-country

Amazes me how the PC brigade have blinded so many into ignoring scientific research.

[Trim Stab]

Trim Stab wrote:

If they're that bright, how is it that they're still suffering under the Kim dynasty?


That is a good question, and it puzzles me too. Both China and Japan (who share the same DNA as Koreans) also have orderly, obedient and conformal populations. They too have gone through periods in their history where they have lived under very disciplined or oppressive systems with little dissent. The fact that China and Japan have now built very stable societies is another reason why North Korea will thrive once the regime is toppled.

Also, investing in NK is not as risky as you might imagine. Our direct investments are all with Chinese companies with good contacts in NK, and investing in Chinese companies is no more risky than investing in small-medium capital western companies. The trick is to identify which areas of the NK economy are most ripe for spectacular growth, and which Chinese companies are best placed and most prepared to move into NK post regime change.

[Trim Stab]

That link does not work.

But in any case investment in education is in itself a sign of an intelligent race. Africans have been on the planet as long as Chinese - but still they have never managed to build a functioning education system.

Chinese now massively outperform any other race in scholastic tests (see PISA tests). In UK schools, Chinese children outperform white children (particularly in science subjects) and of course Afro-Caribbean children are the poorest performers, and explains why UK overall scores are quite mediocre.

By the way, have you ever spent much time in Africa? You should try working there before you make any claims that they are just as intelligent as white people! I have spent some fifteen years or so working in various parts of Africa and I would never invest a penny in that continent, because the inhabitants are so dumb, venal, corrupt and dishonest.

[beardy]

From your very own reference :
These results are controversial and have caused much debate, they must be interpreted with extreme caution.

You seem to have a strong confirmation bias in your interpretation and not a lot of caution. You also conflate country and race.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/48d7/843f6ce714a684a93530a0c8b7da65d185db.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiB6vHy6qTYAhXsK8AKHdJxBpgQFgg8MAI&usg=AOvVaw0Ubb7zaOrPGzrX3sJv9YCH

Is a downloadable pdf

[Trim Stab]

From your very own reference :


You seem to have a strong confirmation bias in your interpretation and not a lot of caution. You also conflate country and race.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/48d7/843f6ce714a684a93530a0c8b7da65d185db.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiB6vHy6qTYAhXsK8AKHdJxBpgQFgg8MAI&usg=AOvVaw0Ubb7zaOrPGzrX3sJv9YCH

Is a downloadable pdf

Yes, I have read that. I am not sure where your accusation that I conflate "country and race" comes from. If you look at OECD Pisa test ratings, you can see that if we set a reasonably level playing field by comparing only OECD countries - ie European countries, USA, Australasia which all have roughly comparable investment in education (at least compared to minimal education investment in Africa, and higher than average investment education investment in countries such as China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) - something immediately stands out. OECD countries with very little Afro-Caribbean population (Latvia, Estonia, Iceland, NZ, Norway - score much higher than countries with high proportion of Afro-Caribbean such as UK, France and US).

Making observations like this is not racism - but we really should be addressing these statistics when addressing future immigration policy in UK. As an aside, during my recent trip to China, one former university professor turned politician told me that in his opinion it would be a very long term project for China to become a world football super-power (one of their aims) because they did not have any blacks in their population. He did add, however, that in his opinion their racial homogeneity would ensure that their scholastic achievement and highly technical economy would not be disadvantaged compared to European and US economic mixed-race rivals.

[ORAC]

It’s Time to Bomb North Korea - Foreign Policy (http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/08/its-time-to-bomb-north-korea/)

[Heathrow Harry]

Firewalled off I'm afraid

and has anyone asked the S Koreans how many million dead they are willing to put on the table???

[Buster Hyman]

Koreans (both N and S) are the highest IQ people on the planet (along with Chinese and Japanese). The dispute on the Korean peninsula would never have arise if it were not for the intervention of low IQ caucasian US and Europe.

Then how come the North didn't win the War? If they had the majority of people with High IQ's, it should've been a quick & easy win.

[ORAC]

The Chinese, Japanese and Koreans seem to have more than enough history if warfare and genocide between them without requiring Caucasians to take the blame......

[A_Van]

Which is why it was so relieving to see SK and NK sitting down together alone at the table today, without the "input" of the USA.


Perhaps you are right about (no input from) the USA, but I doubt there were no other inputs (China, Japan, maybe even Russia).



Koreans (both N and S) are the highest IQ people on the planet (along with Chinese and Japanese).



To hell with these IQ tests, trivial arithmetics for dumbs with unreliable measurement methodology.


The dispute on the Korean peninsula would never have arise if it were not for the intervention of low IQ caucasian US and Europe.


The crisis was started by the Chinese attempt to export their way of building a (communist) society. And supported by Uncle Joe from North Caucasus, yes.

[ORAC]

Goes back a bit before that Van. Hence the continuing furore about Korean “comfort” women and China stirring the pot to stop them becoming closer allies against it. Note the lack of Caucasian involvement.....


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea_under_Japanese_rule

https://thediplomat.com/2015/12/japan-south-korea-reach-agreement-on-comfort-women/

S.Korea confirms existence of secret deal with Japan on comfort women - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/27/c_136855073.htm)

[jolihokistix]

Conversely speaking, a PU or PEC could be something they might all be grateful for.

Hard to see it from within, but Europe has never before experienced such a long period of peace.

[ORAC]

If you don’t count the Balkans as part of Europe, or Ukraine, or Cyprus I suppose.

Otherwise 1815-1856.

[Fareastdriver]

Were the Far Eastern races the most intelligent in the world then why is their main occupation building things invented by Caucasians.

[Brat]

Which is why it was so relieving to see SK and NK sitting down together alone at the table today, without the "input" of the USA.

The Korean peninsula crisis will be resolved eventually by Koreans alone.

Koreans (both N and S) are the highest IQ people on the planet (along with Chinese and Japanese). The dispute on the Korean peninsula would never have arise if it were not for the intervention of low IQ caucasian US and Europe.

So let this dispute resolve itself by the Korean people themselves.

Unfortunately the last time it went bad NATO had to step in, and, just as a heads up that last war has actually not yet been settled.

I doubt that the South would be as prosperous and advanced if the North had won. They would all be worshiping the fat boy ‘god’ next door!

[ORAC]

United Nations, not NATO, though the UN Forces did include, amongst others, the following NATO members:

Belgium, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, Turkey and West Germany.

[NutLoose]

One does wonder how many of the "full" North Korean Olympic squad will return home... especially if they make a horses ass of themselves in their sport.

Still, with the news restrictions they probably are unaware of that other dictators dealings with their National teams

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/apr/19/iraq.football

[Fareastdriver]

especially if they make a horses ass of themselves in their sport

They know that their relatives will be watching the TV back home.

With a gun at their heads.

[KenV]

Koreans (both N and S) are the highest IQ people on the planet (along with Chinese and Japanese). Two points:
1. Who measured this and how?
2. Smart people are quite capable of doing some very dumb and very nasty things.

The dispute on the Korean peninsula would never have arise if it were not for the intervention of low IQ caucasian US and Europe. So let this dispute resolve itself by the Korean people themselves.Ah yes, that old trope: it's all the white man's fault. A trope that utterly ignores the multiple millenia of warfare and general slaughter these folks visited upon themselves long before the white man ever arrived, and then continued on their own without the white man's involvement. Isn't it fascinating that flagrant racism directed toward white people is magically not racism?

[West Coast]

He’s floated the IQ thing before without evidence when called out, don’t keep your hopes up for a reasoned response.

[West Coast]

Which is why it was so relieving to see SK and NK sitting down together alone at the table today, without the "input" of the USA.

Sorry stab trim, wrong again (are you Caucasian?) SK president gives credit to Trump for the sit down. A lot of you leftwing types are afraid Trump will start a war, appears the fat Wun is afraid of that as well. Great incentive to sit down and talk.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/south-koreas-moon-says-trump-deserves-big-credit-for-north-korea-talks.html

[Just This Once...]

As incentives go the ‘being madder than a North Korean leader’ approach is unique, if nothing else.

[West Coast]

Yes, and one that the Fat Wun must consider as a legitimate threat to his continued reign.

[Islandlad]

[Breaking] NK leader Kim reportedly in critical condition after surgery: CNN

By Choi Si-young (http://m.koreaherald.com/search/list_name.php?byline=Choi+Si-young)

Speculation mounts about Kim's health, but no confirmation yet about rumors

[B Fraser]

Were the Far Eastern races the most intelligent in the world then why is their main occupation building things invented by Caucasians.

I think you mean copying.