North Korea!

[ShotOne]

With it being arguably the biggest threat faced by the West and potentially most significant use of air power, surprised to see so little speculation about N Korea. The US VP spoke of "options". What might they be?...this is a rumour forum after all.

[tartare]

Christ - with that headline for a minute there Shot I thought the balloon had gone up!
As regards the topic - those who say don't know and...

[Bergerie1]

Perhaps this film best shows what a nuclear war might be like. What do others think?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZhjpHYjZpc

[jolihokistix]

Living here it is a daily reality, and the TV is full of scenarios.


One 'expert' says that up to now DPRK has rattled the nuclear threat for economic reasons. Now their aim seems to be recognition by the US of DPRK's de facto full-fledged membership of the nuclear club.


If the US gives into their demand, however, then S Korea and Japan will have to be allowed to follow suit, something that the US would allegedly never want/allow.

[A_Van]

Obviously, quite an uneasy situation with this fanatic country, and no military solution seems to be possible. The choice would be between bad and very bad scenarios.

IMHO, they will never be a deadly threat for US (even if they succeed with ICBM) because deploying enough Aegis systems is quite possible considering relatively small geographical area of NK. But what to do with SK and US bases and troops there since they may be within the radius of artillery/MLRS ? Even now they can reach Seoul...I have doubts that so many Patriots and THAADs would be possible to deploy to counter their massive use. Their ships and subs count, too. Though they will likely be eliminated after the first shot, who knows what might be targets of this shot?

IMHO, the only solution might be transformation of the society by their Southern brothers, so that German reunification scenario would be possible sometime in the future. But SK did not succeed much on that front, so far...

[4Greens]

They have spent a great deal of money on their military systems. Where does the money come from ?

[ShotOne]

They may not be able to reach the US, van, but even a "successfully" intercepted missile would cause havoc in Seoul.

"Those that say don't know...etc". I disagree, that's never been how deterrence works. Throughout the CW, both sides worked hard to publicise and demonstrate readiness. The difficulty is, what threat works against a country that's a total basket-case?

[pr00ne]

ShotOne,

"Threat faced by the West?"

Surely this is only a threat to South Korea and of mild concern to Japan. The US are also involved by way of their forces stationed in country.
The "West" is not even involved let alone threatened, and to become involved would be to participate in aggressive regime change ala our recent history in the Middle East.

[tartare]

Back on thread - cognisant that I wouldn't have a clue what I am talking about:
Three immediate dangers.
The artillery - not of which all can reach Seoul as Stratfor pointed out - just the rocket assisted shells and the big Stalin organ type rocket launchers. Have to take those out. How many are there? Thousands? Well dug in? Target them first?
The solid fuel rockets. Mobile TELS - next in the firing line - might not be able to respond as quickly as a gun, but not far behind. Do you know where they are and how do you find them?
Then the infantry and armour. Massed onslaught as they head south. How to deal with them?
I actually wonder if the nuclear threat is a huge red herring.
The conventional threat is so much more immediate and dangerous - having walked through those Seoul shopping mall bomb shelters in 2000 as a journo.
It seems to me that the US and SK would need a massive pre-emptive strike in order to contain the NK conventional threat - huge aerial force projection combined with a massive TLAM launch.
They'd need to take out the Norks within an hour or so to limit shelling of Seoul etc.
NK would see it coming a mile off.
A very difficult problem for any battle planner to solve.
Would be interested in the perspectives of anyone who may have more insight than I do.

[ORAC]

Decapitation strike against Kim and the military leadership?

In such a hierarchical and dictatorial structure nobody at the lower levels would dare to show any initiative and would await orders from the top.

US Navy SEALs, F-35s to decapitate North Korea's Kim regime - Business Insider (http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-navy-seals-f-35s-decapitation-strike-north-korea-2017-3?r=US&IR=T)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decapitation_strike

[SASless]

Trump was on TV this Morning saying China is working in concert with the USA, South Korea, and Japan in finding a Diplomatic solution to the problem.

He said he has hope that will succeed but if it does not all other Options are on the Table.

Sounds like a reasoned response and plan so far.

If the wee fat bastard with a horrible haircut is in power a Year from now I will be surprised!

If the Chinese decide there should be Regime Change in North Korea....he is history!

[AnglianAV8R]

Perhaps this film best shows what a nuclear war might be like. What do others think?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZhjpHYjZpc

A bit closer to home : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NxkEDpl-40

[ORAC]

"The Bedsitting Room" - trailer and full movie.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bedsitting_Room_(play)

7AVBEwTIfDM

de0w8tU0j1U

[Pontius Navigator]

As this is an aviation forum I had a look at some airfields in NK. They appear to have a number of very basic forward highway and austere runways in the forward area. Further back, and of course imagery from 10-15 years back, the permanent airfields have a significant base loading factor.

There are lines of aircraft close packed on what look like taxy ways and access roads. They do not appear to have either hardened shelters, revetments or spaced parking areas.

[Fareastdriver]

If the NK Air Force is anything like my experience with the Chinese Air Force of the nineties then that airfield layout is familiar.

A line of aircraft consists of those that are flown continuously until they break. They then go on to the next ones and when they break they used bits off the first to fix them. When the bits run out they move on to the next batch. The result is that when you move along the line the first are total wrecks which may contribute a spare. They then go on to Xmas trees and eventually you will find aircraft that are being flown. After that there are new ones and as there is no hangerage they will have full cockpit covers, wing cuffs etc.

Obsolete aircraft are towed, or dragged, to another part of the airfield and will stay there for some considerable time because the airfield's fuel supplies are rationed to the number of aircraft on strength. Not withstanding this flying training usually stops around the third week in the month because they have run out of training fuel even when the pilots are averaging only eighty hours a year.

The Chinese Air Force has moved on astronomically from those days because they can now afford it. Vastly improved pay scales, equipment, training and simulators. Whether North Korea can similarly replace quantity with quality is probably doubtful.

[[email protected]]

If the wee fat bastard with a horrible haircut is in power a Year from now I will be surprised!
Sas - can you just clarify which one you mean?:E

[A_Van]

......
The artillery - not of which all can reach Seoul as Stratfor pointed out - just the rocket assisted shells and the big Stalin organ type rocket launchers. Have to take those out. How many are there? Thousands? Well dug in? Target them first?
.....


Difficult to map "big Stalin organ type rocket launchers" on real things, but they (the "shorty's" army) do have many self-propelled "Koksans" having range of c.a. 40 km using conventional shells and up to 60 km with new ones (Seoul is closer than 40 km to the border).

https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2014-10/1413977867_0_d0225_4f6457fe_-1-xl.jpeg.jpg

https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2014-10/1413976798_0_89bc9_8771862a_xl.jpg

These Koksans were used during the Iran-Iraq war long ago and US captured some in Iraq, but how would it help "neutralise" them?

Many batteries of this artillery are lined along the demilitarised zone just waiting for the command. No doubt many are well-hidden. An uneasy task...

[charliegolf]

Crab, you is a very naughty boy!

[ORAC]

US military considers shooting down North Korea missile tests, sources say (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/18/us-military-shoot-down-north-korea-missile-tests)

[MPN11]

It's an option, but yet again one has to wonder what the NoK reaction would be.

Sadly, as with some other States, normal reactions and behavious are unpredictable. But a compliant attitude to gross breaches of UN resolutions is NOT the answer.

[Pontius Navigator]

It could be argued that engagement of anything entering a published missile engagement zone without prior permission is a legitimate target. The USN has done this before.

[Saintsman]

Perhaps NK are doing a Saddam and letting everyone think that they have this massive capability. Wonky missiles on display at the weekend gives thought that it's all show and no content.

Not that conventional weapons won't make a mess though.

[Tashengurt]

I wonder what the end goal is here?
Does the South really want unification with the massive financial millstone that the north would be?

[Pontius Navigator]

That is the $63,999 question which will be occupying analysts in theatre. 25 hrs a day and probably longer in foggy bottom.

[unmanned_droid]

Decapitation strike against Kim and the military leadership?

In such a hierarchical and dictatorial structure nobody at the lower levels would dare to show any initiative and would await orders from the top.

US Navy SEALs, F-35s to decapitate North Korea's Kim regime - Business Insider (http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-navy-seals-f-35s-decapitation-strike-north-korea-2017-3?r=US&IR=T)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decapitation_strike

But the NK are quite fanatical and many are quite brainwashed, and I wonder if the fanaticism can cancel out the dictatorial structure and everyone goes apesh*t if they here the cake man has been killed.

More simply, maybe the NK issue an order that, if there is a loss of comms for more than 30 mins (e.g.) just fire everything? - so long as it goes South, the job is done?

He isn't going to go down without making a spectacle of it if at all possible.

Question is...have 'they' been able to cultivate an alternative movement within the forces which could assume command given the codeword. It would seem to me that this sort of thing is what you need to save many many lives.

In terms of invasion, I remember reading about the tunnels that the North has fun digging in to the South. Could be worrying if you don't think you have them all mapped.

[TEEEJ]

As this is an aviation forum I had a look at some airfields in NK. They appear to have a number of very basic forward highway and austere runways in the forward area. Further back, and of course imagery from 10-15 years back, the permanent airfields have a significant base loading factor.

There are lines of aircraft close packed on what look like taxy ways and access roads. They do not appear to have either hardened shelters, revetments or spaced parking areas.

The vast majority of North Korean airfields have underground facilities. At least two have underground runways.

Do a search for

IMINT & Analysis: Underground Airfields: The DPRK

https://www.wired.com/2010/07/online-spies-spot-north-koreas-underground-airfields/

http://freekorea.us/2013/03/08/north-koreas-underground-bond-villain-air-base-nears-completion/#sthash.Flghh4wJ.dpbs

[Just This Once...]

Now that the US Government have belatedly found the Carl Vincent group playfully exercising in the Indian Ocean, I wonder if the White House will lose interest in NK:

White House officials said on Tuesday [18 Apr 17] they were relying on guidance from the Defense Department. Officials there described a glitch-ridden sequence of events, from a premature announcement of the deployment by the military’s Pacific Command to an erroneous explanation by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis — all of which perpetuated the false narrative that an American armada was racing toward the waters off North Korea.

By the time the White House was asked about the Carl Vinson on April 11, its imminent arrival had been emblazoned on front pages across East Asia, fanning fears that Mr. Trump was considering a pre-emptive military strike on North Korea. It was portrayed as further evidence of the president’s muscular style two days after he ordered a missile strike on Syria while he and President Xi Jinping of China were finishing dessert during a meeting in Florida.

The saga of the wayward carrier might never have come to light, had the Navy not posted a photograph on Monday of the Carl Vinson sailing through the Sunda Strait, which separates the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra. The picture was taken on Saturday, four days after the White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, described its mission in the Sea of Japan.

Credit - NYT

[Pontius Navigator]

TEEJ, that would certainly seem the case for the forward ones. On runways, I advocated underground runways 40-50 years ago

[TheWestCoast]

The Navy would have to have crazy good intel and a ton of luck to launch a successful operation to take out Cheeseboy.

They're not going to be dropping into a small compound guarded by some chickens, a dog, and a few guys with AKs.

[Fareastdriver]

Underground runways come out of holes in the ground. One laser guided bomb can block a hole

[onetrack]

They have spent a great deal of money on their military systems. Where does the money come from ?You asked the question - the following news article outlines fairly clearly where NK has acquired much of its "legal" wealth.

The article does not, however, indulge in any analysis of just how much money the Govt of NK is making from illegal and criminal activities - such as drug-dealing, sex-trafficking, internet fraud, sales of their weaponry technology to other "rogue states", and a range of criminal activities that would make the Mafia and Camorra proud. NK is believed to be behind the US$80M internet bank fraud carried out on Bangladesh recently.

Bangladesh bank fraud (https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/04/25/bangladeshi_malware_screwed_swift/)

For the last reasons alone, a regime collapse, and style of government change in NK would be a very worthy aim. However, the last thing I think many would want to see, is regime collapse with only a power vacuum left.
This would more than likely only result in a similar dictatorial regime returning to NK, within a relatively short time.

News.com.au - How has NK managed to build a massive military stockpile? (http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/how-the-hell-has-north-korea-managed-to-build-a-massive-military-stockpile/news-story/9725a9cce653760effd5188a24c0979a)

[tartare]

The Navy would have to have crazy good intel and a ton of luck to launch a successful operation to take out Cheeseboy.

They're not going to be dropping into a small compound guarded by some chickens, a dog, and a few guys with AKs.

My thoughts exactly.
It'd be an absolute suicide mission.
And to see why - have a look at this. (http://freekorea.us/2007/04/10/its-good-to-be-the-king-kim-jong-ils-home-and-office-by-google-earth/#sthash.ewtwLo8r.dpbs)

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

Some discussion on Reddit with respect to North Korea if you are interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NorthKoreaNews/

[jolihokistix]

My early training in North Korea came from Biggles, and powerful stuff it was.


Interesting links, tartare, & on the top bunk, above. Thanks.

[tartare]

Interesting comparative stats here (https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/04/11/how-north-and-south-koreas-armed-forces-compare-infographic/#50c6c56b828b).
I'm trying to imagine what a mobilisation for a strike on North Korea might look like.
Presumably you'd have to strike using assets already in theatre, as any attempt to build up a Coalition type force a la GW1 or GW2 would immediately send the signal and invite a pre-emptive attack from the North?
Would one US CSG be enough to bolster the South and US forces already stationed in South Korea?
He's got 1.1m under arms, a lot of tanks and a pretty rag-tag airforce but quite a few missiles and 21,000 artillery pieces...!

[Arclite01]

and Quantity has a Quality all of its own. Once you have used all your 'ready use' modern equipment it comes down to numbers of people and basic equipment.

If the North strikes quickly, the US will not have time to mobilise its response IMHO. And probably numbers would swing it. Fanatics are not worried about casualties or long term aims and games, just the here and now..............

For sure, we won't be sending any Carriers...............

[jolihokistix]

21,000 artillery pieces at 250 rounds a day each, makes, erm... 5 million, 250 thousand rounds a day.


Need quite a large hangar to store a week's worth, i.e. 37 million shells?

[tartare]

For sure, we won't be sending any Carriers...............



However it seems like the cousins will be, and then some.
The Ronnie Reagan and the Nimitz are on their way - and the Carl Vinnie if it eventually gets there.
Isn't that around three hundred jets - and around six nuclear subs following?
Joli - there was some interesting commentary in some blogs today around the number of misfires from said artillery - they might struggle to maintain that rate of fire by the sounds of things...

[jolihokistix]

Now you see it, ...


From the wind-swept deck of a massive aircraft carrier, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday warned North Korea not to test the resolve of


https://japantoday.com/category/politics/Pence-warns-North-Korea-'The-sword-stands-ready'?comment-order=oldest

[ORAC]

The Navy would have to have crazy good intel and a ton of luck to launch a successful operation to take out Cheeseboy. They're not going to be dropping into a small compound guarded by some chickens, a dog, and a few guys with AKs.g

I think it would more likely be Korean SF doing int gathering and lazing for stealth aircraft dropping PGMs. B-2s would be able to both bunker busters and 1000lb bombs for softer targets.

[tartare]

I actually wonder if US SF are actually already in country.
It wouldn't be surprising.
Maybe there are some very brave people lying extremely still in the hills above those launch sites...

[Burnt Fishtrousers]

I don't know where all this "wonky missile" crap comes from. A quick google search of SA 200 missile shows clearly the rocket motor noses mounted at an angle ...

[dagenham]

I was intrigued by the words of the North Korean minister who said they would deliver a nuclear attack "in their own style and own way" given their use of midget subs, Hughes 500 etc.

Are we being a bit traditional in our thinking what would stop them parking a sub with a nuclear device in a us or Asian harbour and hitting the sun switch?

[Pontius Navigator]

Dagenham, that indeed was a proposal by the Royal Navy back in the late 50s or early 60s.

Now? Much better ASW capability.

[KenV]

They have spent a great deal of money on their military systems. Where does the money come from ?China mostly. Korea exports a whole bunch of coal to China resulting in lots of cash. That's why Trump and company are trying so hard to enlist the help of China. If they turned off the tap, the DPRK would dry up and blow away.

[KenV]

I actually wonder if US SF are actually already in country.
It wouldn't be surprising.
Maybe there are some very brave people lying extremely still in the hills above those launch sites...It would surprise me. Several Tomahawk TLAMs would do much more damage than any kind of light infantry, even special forces ones, and with far far less risk.

[Fareastdriver]

I think that tartare meant that they are keeping very still observing and forwarding intelligence.

[tartare]

Correct.
Over the years have seen that way, way in advance of conflicts blowing up special forces have subsequently been revealed to be on the ground in surprising places.

[SASless]

Gee...if the White House cannot keep track of where the US Navy is....how is North Korea going to do so?

[Pontius Navigator]

SAS, disinformation?

[Arclite01]

Ken

Your #45 - and Mr Trump could export his coal surplus to China. 'Win-Win'

Arc

[Thaihawk]

Ken

Your #45 - and Mr Trump could export his coal surplus to China. 'Win-Win'

Arc

Allegedly this already happening.

[glad rag]

Dagenham, that indeed was a proposal by the Royal Navy back in the late 50s or early 60s.

Now? Much better ASW capability.

Where again?

[Pontius Navigator]

GR, what? ,

[KenV]

Ken
Your #45 - and Mr Trump could export his coal surplus to China. 'Win-Win'I tend to agree. Even if shipping US coal to China makes the coal a bit more expensive than the Korean coal, it would probably be way way cheaper for Trump to subsidize that coal and economically strangle Korea for a few years to get them to the bargaining table than just about any other option. And seeing as Trump met with China's Xi recently, that may very well have been a topic of discussion.

[Lonewolf_50]

KenV:
And following your line of thought, such an undertaking would bolster a certain campaign promise made regarding coal and jobs.

[KenV]

KenV:
And following your line of thought, such an undertaking would bolster a certain campaign promise made regarding coal and jobs.Indeed. And it further fits in rather well with the EOs and blls Trump signed a few weeks back that removed rules Obama put in place days before his departure that placed some onerous restrictions and requirements on coal mining. There's clearly a lot of moving parts to the overall picture.

[ORAC]

U.S. sends nuclear sniffer plane to Korea: source (http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/04/20/0401000000AEN20170420011900315.html)

[Arclite01]

Ken

They'll bundle that up as:

1. Making North Korea toe the line and show them that the US means business
2. Improving trading relations with China
3. Helping the balance of payments
4. Meeting the 'jobs and coal' election promise
5. Making the world a safer place
6. Justifying the recent announcement of increased US defence spending
7. Making Russia realize we mean what we say............
8. Making Russia realize that we have other world partners who we can deal with............
9. Making Mr Trump out to be the architect of the deal and a great statesman 'who understands how the world works'

A reasonably large percentage of which is true................... anything that avoids a non-objectives defined, long range war against yet another third world country gets my vote though.

Arc

[Onceapilot]

China can have UK coal. Apparently, we do not want home sourced energy.:confused:

OAP

[BEagle]

U.S. sends nuclear sniffer plane to Korea

No doubt another former UK 'capability' which is now having a 'holiday'?

:hmm:

[its the bish]

All gone very quiet on the BBC TV, including their text world news and even the World Service, not a mention of N.K. for 2 days now, one wonders if there has been a D notice or whatever it is called these days issued ! :uhoh:

[Cazalet33]

All gone very quiet on the BBC TV, including their text world news and even the World Service, not a mention of N.K. for 2 days now, one wonders if there has been a D notice or whatever it is called these days issued !

Mebbe there's been no news to report.

Mebbe the dude with the dodgy hairdo hasn't threatened another one with WMD today?

Orange over Yellow? A victory, of sorts.

[Pontius Navigator]

Or the new slim line BBC has called them all home for the election, or Kim Fat Jun kicked them all out?

Or the VP went home?

Syria also seems quiet and peaceful and the boats from Africa have been laid up?

Or it is no longer news?

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

Should we fear the North Korean Air Force? (http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/should-the-world-fear-north-koreas-air-force-20315)

Some comments on the article here (https://www.reddit.com/r/NorthKoreaNews/comments/66wnam/should_the_world_fear_north_koreas_air_force_the/)

[TheWestCoast]

The "funniest" part of this episode so far has been Mike Pence staring into North Korea to show them our resolve.

What an embarrassment.

[SpazSinbad]

FWIW: https://www.navytimes.com/articles/carried-away-the-inside-story-of-how-the-carl-vinsons-canceled-port-visit-sparked-a-global-crisis

[Pontius Navigator]

Nothing like a media feeding frenzy. Looks as if once the story went upstairs from the relatively low press office they were inhibited from issuing a correction lest it conflicted with higher authority statements.

[Buster Hyman]

FWIW: https://www.navytimes.com/articles/carried-away-the-inside-story-of-how-the-carl-vinsons-canceled-port-visit-sparked-a-global-crisis
Love how the comments degenerated when one of the families couldn't get a refund...:}

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

So POTUS has called the entire Senate to the White House for a briefing.

Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-usa-senate-idUSKBN17Q1LR)

BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39694640)

[tartare]

Just grandstanding, this article seems to suggest.
US Senate to get an unusual White House briefing on North Korea (http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-senate-to-get-an-unusual-white-house-briefing-on-north-korea-20170424-gvro66.html)

[walter kennedy]

the worry is that they don't need ICBMs to get to us - they have a lot of submarines - they have Soviet era technology that includes probably nuclear tipped torpedoes that can be launched at quite a distance into, say, a harbour and they acquired some old Soviet subs for "scrapping" some time back that had launch tubes in the fin (conning tower) - bit of chopping and blending and they have something that can launch the short range missiles that they have already developed and proven..
BUT where did they get their nuclear material from in the first place?

[West Coast]

How do you surmise they "probably" have nuclear tipped torpedoes?

[walter kennedy]

How do you surmise they "probably" have nuclear tipped torpedoes?
Just a possibility - the Soviets had them decades ago and the North Koreans got some of their sub know how from them.
A possibility to consider.
One on one their subs may be obsolete but they have a significant number of them - how many can you track?

[West Coast]

Big difference between possible and probably.

[Pontius Navigator]

The Romeos were obsolete in the 60s long before they were hand me downs to the NK. While they have a 9,000 miles range that would take quite a long time to get anywhere.

[KenV]

the worry is that they don't need ICBMs to get to us - they have a lot of submarines - they have Soviet era technology that includes probably nuclear tipped torpedoes .......Having Soviet era submarines and having Soviet era nuclear torpedoes are two very very different things. USN A-4s had a nuclear delivery capability. That does not mean that that delivery capability was included in A-4s sold to other nations, much much less the nukes themselves. This seems highly unlikely. Especially considering that DPRK has spent billions on developing nuclear weapons. They would not have needed to go to all that effort and expense if the Soviets had sold them nukes.

[Ascend Charlie]

the dude with the dodgy hairdo

Ummm... both Dictator and D1ckhead have dodgy hairdos, but at least Yung Fat Wun is comfortable in a crosswind.

[walter kennedy]

Having Soviet era submarines and having Soviet era nuclear torpedoes are two very very different things. USN A-4s had a nuclear delivery capability. That does not mean that that delivery capability was included in A-4s sold to other nations, much much less the nukes themselves. This seems highly unlikely. Especially considering that DPRK has spent billions on developing nuclear weapons. They would not have needed to go to all that effort and expense if the Soviets had sold them nukes.

Last bit first as this is a valid point - how/where from did/do they get the basic raw material for their nuclear weapons? - they obviously have some - I did not mean to imply that the Soviets had supplied the finished product nor the basic material.

Regarding delivery systems: if you can put such a warhead on a missile, then it should be easy to fit one in a torpedo (such Soviet era torpedoes had a yield of about 10kilotons, I think a worry for aircraft carriers, I suggest, and enough to consider in the defence of ports);
some of the old subs sold/given to NK in the past had launch tubes that could have been cannibalised or copied into some of their current subs so a short range missile could be used effectively - OK surfacing to launch would be suicidal for the crew but would that deter them and what is the difference between that and what was expected of our bomber crews back in the day (surely one way trips)?;
I just made the point that we should not just focus on the threat from ballistic missiles when they may have an easier, more reliable way of sending us a message - the numbers that they have could tie up the surveillance capabilities while one slips through.
I do not mean to be alarmist but I hope that this scenario is being considered by our military.

[TWT]

There's a possibility that Pakistan has helped NK with their nuclear program. May also be others,but none of them would be shouting about it from the rooftops.

[tartare]

Noticed the Michigan has her dry deck shelter attached.
Planned exercises for people with black wetsuits, fast RIBs and waterproof guns...!

[jolihokistix]

As I mentioned earlier on a different thread, one Japanese military expert being consulted on a TV talk show here last week suggested that NK is in possession of around 50 kg of plutonium, 10 kg having been produced domestically, and 40 kg sent in a series of small shipments by Putin from Russia.

[Pontius Navigator]

I also see the Torygraph correspondent in Beijing has upgraded the Michigan to dual role of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

Are the latter cruise missiles that become ballistic if the engine cuts out? :)

[troppo]

Whilst quietly impressed by some of the hardware being amassed in the region, i do have concerns of the chain of events that may play out. So, NK tests a nuke, US sends in some cruise missiles. NK retaliates against SK with conventional and chemical weapons. It all escalates from there pretty quickly...
from memory state sanctioned assassinations are unconstitutional, but as they say the law is an ass.

[KenV]

As I mentioned earlier on a different thread, one Japanese military expert being consulted on a TV talk show here last week suggested that NK is in possession of around 50 kg of plutonium, 10 kg having been produced domestically, and 40 kg sent in a series of small shipments by Putin from Russia.Two points:

1. Got to have the right isotope of plutonium to make a weapon, and only Pu239 can make a fission weapon. What kind does the DPRK supposedly have?

2. By all accounts, DPRK does not have the capability to build an implosion-type weapon which is required when using plutonium. They can only build gun-type weapons which require highly enriched uranium. (U235). That's what all those centrifuges are used for: enriching natural uranium which is mostly U238 and only 0.7% U235 until it reaches 90% or better U235, and only U235 can be used in a weapon. U238 is non fissile and after the U235 has been extracted is often called "depleted" uranium and used for its mechanical/physical properties (about twice the density of lead, and when alloyed with other metals, very hard, which makes it an excellent armor piercing projectile.)

[KenV]

....from memory state sanctioned assassinations are unconstitutional, but as they say the law is an ass.The US Constitution is silent on assassination. In any event, the Constitution only applies within the US. That's why the terrorists are "detained without trial "in Gitmo where the Constitution does not apply.

[westernhero]

God I've just seen a NK T-34 covered in infantry 1942 style moving down a road on the telly. When all this is over the place will be overrun with dealers after working antiques for their museums, assuming there's any left !

[Pontius Navigator]

Ken, executive order 13355?

I suppose you could argue it was not political?

[KenV]

Ken, executive order 13355?
I suppose you could argue it was not political?EO 13355 addresses management of the intelligence community. It is silent on assassinations. In any event, EOs do not have the weight of the Constitution and can be altered or overidden by subsequent EOs or by Congressional legislation.

[Pontius Navigator]

OK, 2.11Prohibition on Assassination. No person employed by or acting on behalf of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassination. Order 123333.

Yes, it can be overturned. Now I wonder if it would be post facto.

[ORAC]

Bush, Obama and the UK government have been doing it regularly by drone for many years, including across state boundaries and against their own citizens - R2P applies. Against terrorist affiliated groups it is also is now sanctioned by international law, I can provide a reference if you require, and with the NK regime's repeated and known kidnapping of Japanese, South Korean and American citizens it can easily be applied.

Things ain't what they used to be....

[Less Hair]

So what do they put in their artillery barrels to create those fireball special effects? Soju?

[Onceapilot]

This could become a very serious topic. It seems to me that POTUS has a limited range of options. His primary aim will be to negate the real threat with minimum US (his) loss. Secondary is minimum collateral (some of his), and tertiary losses (not his) are the lowest priority. However, POTUS can only act pre-emptively if his actions can perfectly decapitate the NK chain of command, with very limited losses on all sides. All other scenarios require POTUS to lose the initiative by waiting for the NK first strike so that, whatever the consequences, all losses are blamed on NK. Unfortunately, $64,000 question is, is POTUS a gambler? I don't think he is at heart and, I suspect he will play a waiting game with either: China doing the dirty work (that they should have done decades ago) or, staying ready and waiting for that NK pre-emptive that will hopefully be bungled and give POTUS the moral high ground (in a terrible mess). :sad:

OAP

[The Nip]

I do not have an answer to this crisis, but at what point will something have to be done? By that I mean either accept NK as is or go to war?
Or will this 'stand-off' carry on for ever and and day with the buck being passed from one POTUS to another?

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

The latest propaganda video from our friends in the DPRK

I feel sorry for the US carrier that was blown up in order to make the film and of course the White House at the end!

Youtube (https://youtu.be/I-kmTaMXLFw)

[tartare]

Hey - if he can backflip on cancelling NAFTA - then he can back down on flattening North Korea.
The man is utter p1ss and wind.
Like a lot of bullies - I reckon he's secretly the grossest of cowards.
If it ever really came to a shooting war with the Norks, he'd be hiding under the table in the situation room, cowering.
Syria is no parallel - a little chat with Vlad beforehand so that the MiGs, Hinds and Frogfoots could be shifted out of the way and then badda-boom - some sound and light to appear tough.
This... is a little more complex, and there isn't the same room to move.

[Lonewolf_50]

All you have to do with DPRK is contain them. It works better, though, if the Chinese are willing to participate in some containment. If not, there's a limit to what any US president can do, and let's not forget that the SK government has a lot at stake and a lot to lose: their input is also going to limit US options.

[West Coast]

Attempts at containment is how we arrived at the current situation.

We either accept a nuclear NK with the ability to project that power, or we don't and appropriate measure are taken towards that end.

[Kerosene Kraut]

How did they manage to get that much weapon grade plutonium? Who gave it to them?

[Pontius Navigator]

KK #82 perhaps?

[onetrack]

Of all the unstable nations that we tolerate with nuclear weapons, NK is the one we don't want with them. They are amongst the most criminally-inclined, reckless, and vicious people on the planet.
They would cheerfully let off a nuclear weapon on any one of a dozen of their hated "adversaries", even if it meant serious destruction of their own country.
The faster the NK regime is dismantled, and their nuclear-manufacturing ability removed, the sooner a lot of people in the world will breathe a sigh of relief.
If that means a pre-emptive strike is required, then that's what it should be. We have had 64 years of pussy-footing around and tip-toeing around the NK problem - and the NK problem has only gotten worse with each passing decade, and with each passing regime leader.
There will come a point soon, without action on the part of the West, when it will be too late, and a gloating, nuclear-armed NK will be lashing out with more aggressive, unchecked, bully actions, with the knowledge that they can counter any retaliation with a nuclear strike.
There is little doubt that if NK gain the ability to manufacture multiple numbers of nuclear weapons without any action to stop them, on the part of the West or the UN, they will use them at the first opportunity, where they think they will gain power or major concessions.

[MPN11]

on a more positive note, it appears the latest ICBM (?) missile test has failed, with an explosion shortly after launch.

[Pontius Navigator]

MPN, I wonder what the next rounds or reports on the staff will contain, lead?

[Kerosene Kraut]

China has declared recently NK did not follow the wishes of it's government by launching another one. That sounds like some tricky situation for the north as they might be losing their last big sponsor.
If in fact russia should be supplying stuff now we have a possible major sino-russian conflict developing over there.

[Avitor]

We can look back to the 1930's to see what one lunatic, and his retinue can do to the world, even before the Nuclear threat.

[jolihokistix]

Russia has recently been taking advantage by selling gasoline to NK to make up for the Chinese shortage. She has also set up a new regular route for NK's banned (by Japan) 'passenger' liner between Vladivostok and Rason in northeast NK, to start on Victory Day, 9th May. The Sino-Russian seesaw continues...

[Fareastdriver]

Ones wonders whether a hacker has got into the launch control safety circuits.

[DirtyProp]

on a more positive note, it appears the latest ICBM (?) missile test has failed, with an explosion shortly after launch.


http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/fun107.com/files/2013/04/3osgtl-e1365706924270.jpg

[TEEEJ]

North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities: A Fresh Look by David Albright - Institute for Science and International Security

North Korea?s Nuclear Capabilities: A Fresh Look | Institute for Science and International Security (http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/north-koreas-nuclear-capabilities-a-fresh-look)

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/North_Korea_Nuclear_Capability_Estimates_Summary_28Apr2017_F inal.pdf

[ShotOne]

"All you have to do with NK is contain them"...how's that going to work then?

[Lonewolf_50]

"All you have to do with NK is contain them"...how's that going to work then? If it's going to work, the largest share of influence will be from China, with some effort from Russia, South Korea, and the US. Depending on how those nations do, and don't, get along and share a common goal of defusing the long standing issues will inform how well it works on a given Sunday.

[Brat]

All China and Russia have to worry about is that these rather unreliable nuclear weapons actually do head in the direction NK intends.

[Arclite01]

Brat

I was thinking just the same thing the other day. If one accidentally landed on China or Russia (especially a fully loaded one) then I wonder what would happen next.............

Arc

[A_Van]

Brat

I was thinking just the same thing the other day. If one accidentally landed on China or Russia (especially a fully loaded one) then I wonder what would happen next.............

Arc


Good point. In this case, I think, the whole NK problem will be solved because patience has limits.
Again, IMHO the main threat factor now is that Seoul and probably some US installations in SK can be massively reached by NK conventional artillery in case of trouble. Missiles can be intercepted by THAAD and AeGIS, but thousands of shells not.
Don't know exactly about China, but as for Russia, its territory close to the (short) border with NK is not considerably populated and such a threat is much less.

[KenV]

Again, IMHO the main threat factor now is that Seoul and probably some US installations in SK can be massively reached by NK conventional artillery in case of trouble. Missiles can be intercepted by THAAD and AeGIS, but thousands of shells not.Indeed. However, there are numerous counter-battery radars in Korea. Which means that should a DPRK artillery battery start shooting, they'd get off one or maybe two rounds before being themselves taken out by counter battery fire.

[Pontius Navigator]

Ken, in theory, but it would become a classic attrition exchange.

The winner would be the one with the most guns.

Could make an interesting computer game. A fires 100 guns. B counter fires 75 and eliminates 100. A retaliated with 100 and eliminates 75 and so on. The skill being to use and lose less guns.

[A_Van]

PN,

Lanchester's laws of combat are only partially applicable here. E.g., the N (north) side will definitely fire not against the S-side "guns" but rather at "squares" (including cities, industrial areas and military bases) because their accuracy is very poor.
But in the part where Lanchester works, it says that the number matters.

So, as KenV correctly wrote, the question is how many rounds the N-side could make? If they have thousands of "guns" and some are manoeuvrable (and some can quickly hide underground), I am not sure that all of them would be supressed in two rounds...

[Heathrow Harry]

and Seoul left as smoking wreck......

[Herod]

I assume that Seoul has an awful lot of shelters. Not much use against nukes though.

[DirtyProp]

I still cannot figure out why the Chinese are letting a deranged, nutcase neighbor diddle with atomic weapons and such.
Wouldn't it be much safer to tell him "Better stop now or else...." instead of running for scramble after he got them?

[TURIN]

Of all the unstable nations that we tolerate with nuclear weapons, NK is the one we don't want with them. They are amongst the most criminally-inclined, reckless, and vicious people on the planet.
They would cheerfully let off a nuclear weapon on any one of a dozen of their hated "adversaries", even if it meant serious destruction of their own country.

You mean the leadership, not 'the people' I presume.

You must have trouble sleeping at night carrying all that worry around with you.


Fear not. NK will do no such thing. MAD still applies.

[KenV]

Ken, in theory, but it would become a classic attrition exchange.
The winner would be the one with the most guns.Maybe. Maybe not. It also depends on who has the most mobile (self propelled) gun systems which can "shoot and scoot". Further, there are multiple mobile MLRS battalions in South Korea. MLRS was used with devastating effect in counter battery fire against Saddam Hussein's forces. They seldom got off more than two rounds before being destroyed, and the word got out very quickly that if you wanted to die, just fire an artillery piece. And finally on the modern digital battlefield, gun coordinates can also be digitally relayed to aircraft which can target the guns. South Korea has a decided advantage in the quality of aviation assets.

That's not to say that DPRK cannot hold the civilian population of Seoul hostage with it's artillery. But actually using that artillery against the civilian populace will expose that artillery to almost certain destruction. And once that artillery is destroyed, the rest of the DPRK military becomes much more vulnerable. So such an attack will very likely come at a heavy price.

[Heathrow Harry]

I can't see the ROK ever wanting to buy a military "victory" at the cost of a ruined Seoul TBH

[Just This Once...]

I'm not sure they would be prepared to lose either, just to try and save Seoul from an artillery barrage.

NK's capability to inflict a massive blow on Seoul has been seriously undermined by PGMs. Carving artillery pieces into fixed mountain positions may have worked back in the day, but now it just helps form a tomb around the poor souls inside.

[KenV]

I can't see the ROK ever wanting to buy a military "victory" at the cost of a ruined Seoul TBHI agree. That is why there is considerable counter battery capability in ROK, to prevent Seoul's destruction, and not just to win the war that would follow Seoul's destruction.

[GlobalNav]

Fear not. NK will do no such thing. MAD still applies.

Well...we hope so, but if true then parties on both sides of the Pacific would speak more responsibly. It is a precipice no one should want to be close to. Care is truly warranted.

Missile test failures are a temporary phenomenon that should not lull us to sleep - sooner or late they are likely to get it right. My hunch is that someone in our leadership is seriously undertaking very thorough planning for preemptive action of some sort. I can only wish our diplomats were likewise sparing no effort seeking a peaceful resolution.

[West Coast]

Turin

Wish I had your sense of optimism. This is a nation that in the recent past sunk a SK navy ship, a bellicose action that killed many. Pretty sure they don't use the same calculus as the rest of us in their actions. We've come to learn that Muslim terrorists don't place the same value on life, the same could very well apply to the Norks leadership.

[tartare]

KenV makes some valid points.
The more you dig into the claim NK could level Seoul with artillery - the more nuanced the picture becomes.
According to some of the Stratfor reports, there's quite a high rate of misfires among their batteries.
Also, apparently they can't reach all of Seoul, just the Northern suburbs.
According to some of the reports I've read (which I'll try to find and post) it would be a pretty nasty barrage - but not the all out firestorm that the popular media makes out.
No doubt short range missiles would be used to fill the gaps that artillery couldn't hit - but one assumes they're a different engagement scenario.
Several of the US Senators who went to the recent classified briefing spoke of very thorough and considered planning for US/SK military options.
EDIT - Jeez that MLRS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System) is a nasty piece of kit! Love the nickname `The Grid Square removal system"!

[DANbudgieman]

Poorly handled by Trump from the outset.

No need for shouting names in public. The PRC should have been quitely told at the outset that there was going to be a regime change in PDRK. Its just a matter of whether the PRC wants to organise it with a new regime that is acceptable to them or the US / ROK do it - the hard way if needs must.

[Heathrow Harry]

well some Korean guys I had lunch with recently were split - one wanted to unify the motherland ASAP at whatever the cost, another couldn't see the point of beggaring themselves to take over several million losers and the third was worreid they'd all finish up in a car crash and poor......

[Boy_From_Brazil]

I have worked in SK. Most of the larger companies have monthly drills to instil in the employees how to react in the event of a war with the North. It is a threat that they have been living with for a number of years.
Sadly, I cannot see a good outcome of war breaking out in the peninsular.

[DirtyProp]

Looks like the Fat Wun is pissin off his best neighbor.
Credit to JB:

For 1st time, North Korea directly threatens vital ally China
North Korea media directly threatens China with "grave" consequences over nuclear standoff - CBS News (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-threatens-china-grave-consequences-nuclear-standoff/)

[ORAC]

http://www.solidprinciples.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/MPR-1024x744.jpg

[DANbudgieman]

Ken, in theory, but it would become a classic attrition exchange.

The winner would be the one with the most guns.

Could make an interesting computer game. A fires 100 guns. B counter fires 75 and eliminates 100. A retaliated with 100 and eliminates 75 and so on. The skill being to use and lose less guns.

Substitute the one with the most firepower instead of "the one with the most guns."

[DANbudgieman]

Ken, in theory, but it would become a classic attrition exchange.

The winner would be the one with the most guns.

Could make an interesting computer game. A fires 100 guns. B counter fires 75 and eliminates 100. A retaliated with 100 and eliminates 75 and so on. The skill being to use and lose less guns.

Even if the DPRK has superiority in the number of artillery they are limited in their mobility. I strongly suspect that US / ROK airpower will ensure that the DPRK will rapidly be decimated in any shooting war. A major concern for the ROK is that they will most likely survive long enough to give anything within range a very hard time for a week or two.

Another major concern is the unknown status of the PDRK nuclear arsenal.
How many nuclear warheads are available? Does the PDRK have the political will to use them and accept the consequences? (Given the dodgy haircut on the great fat one you cannot but help wonder if he is a couple of peas short of a pod.) Bearing in mind that they are not necessarily limited to conventional delivery means such as aircraft, missiles and artillery, how can they be delivered and to where? (Again we are not necessarily limited to locations within the Korean locality. For examples sake, what if bombs were loaded into merchant ships and sailed in plain sight into distant harbours and detonated?)

[Buster Hyman]

Even if the DPRK has superiority in the number of artillery they are limited in their mobility. I strongly suspect that US / ROK airpower will ensure that the DPRK will rapidly be decimated in any shooting war. A major concern for the ROK is that they will most likely survive long enough to give anything within range a very hard time for a week or two.

Another major concern is the unknown status of the PDRK nuclear arsenal.
How many nuclear warheads are available? Does the PDRK have the political will to use them and accept the consequences? (Given the dodgy haircut on the great fat one you cannot but help wonder if he is a couple of peas short of a pod.) Bearing in mind that they are not necessarily limited to conventional delivery means such as aircraft, missiles and artillery, how can they be delivered and to where? (Again we are not necessarily limited to locations within the Korean locality. For examples sake, what if bombs were loaded into merchant ships and sailed in plain sight into distant harbours and detonated?)
Is this a bit like the Popular Judean Front? :p

[DANbudgieman]

Is this a bit like the Popular Judean Front? :p

Splitters....

[Herod]

If we're going to degenerate the thread, it's the Popular Front for Judea.

[TURIN]

Turin

Wish I had your sense of optimism. This is a nation that in the recent past sunk a SK navy ship, a bellicose action that killed many. Pretty sure they don't use the same calculus as the rest of us in their actions. We've come to learn that Muslim terrorists don't place the same value on life, the same could very well apply to the Norks leadership.


I'm just being pragmatic.

NK will not risk absolute destruction by starting a war it can't win.
NK doesn't have any oil so the comparison with the Middle East dictatorships doesn't wash.
Now, if we suddenly find that NK is sponsoring a bunch of brainwashed fools to go and blow themselves up in the name of... er, atheist doctrine?

[West Coast]

They have folks just as radicalized as any IED wearing Muslim. When their operatives have been discovered, suicide seems to be preferred over capture. Not long ago Japanese were flying into ships for their emperor. Extremist motivation can come from more than religion.

Your premise about remaining in power, not to sure. Other than pointing out a western philosophy about survival, I see nothing to indicate it applies to the Norks leadership.

[Heathrow Harry]

they've been in power for 70+ years - as an article in the "Times" pointed out a couple of weeks ago it's more accurate to see them as a set of Kings or Emperors than Marxists

In general they haven't been involved in a great deal of foreign adventurism - they are keen on killing defectors etc but they haven't the capacity to export much inteh way of mayhem. There is no international set of supporters - such as Al Quaida or ISIS have

They are paranoid - but then they are accurate - everyone IS out to get them. They see what happened to Saddam and Ghaddafi and they think, quite logically, that if they'd had A bombs maybe they wouldn't have finished up dead. They see 8 countries who believe in MAD and they think they can join that club and be more secure than they are now.

They want to hang on to power all right but I don't think they are as crazy as they are portrayed - strip out the rhetoric and their actions are are generally quite careful and considered

[West Coast]

I actually agree with a lot of your post, with the exception of their beyond border follies. SK might disagree given the border incursions and forays deeper into the south.

[TURIN]

Wasn't the Japanese Emperor considered to be a god?

[Avitor]

The same N.Korean family, for years begged Stalin to allow them to invade the South, when Stalin finally relented the Korean war began.
The fat controller is bent on the same course of action.

[Heathrow Harry]

WestCoast - agreed - but they have never really been an "exporter of terrorism" as Ghaddafi & Afghanistan and ISIS have been or have indulged in overseas adventures the way Cuba, the US, Russia France (and now Saudi & the Gulf States!) etc have done

They are a very real threat to the RoK (as the RoK is to them) but otherwise they hardly figure

[ShotOne]

"..Otherwise they hardly figure" ?

They have lobbed missiles over Japan, oh and there's the nuclear arsenal...

[Heathrow Harry]

I was thinking about their international impact

Historically they threaten the RoK and (maybe Japan) - plus they hold a threat over China that if it all goes bad the Chinese will have several million refugees to deal with

this isn't exactly a major military power &nthey don't seem to want to export Kim-Il-Sung-ism. Rather they want to to be left alone in their own little hell hole to oppress their own people without let or hindrance

[Arclite01]

China won't be taking any refugees............... you can bet on that.

Arc

[tartare]

I was thinking about their international impact

Historically they threaten the RoK and (maybe Japan) - plus they hold a threat over China that if it all goes bad the Chinese will have several million refugees to deal with

this isn't exactly a major military power &nthey don't seem to want to export Kim-Il-Sung-ism. Rather they want to to be left alone in their own little hell hole to oppress their own people without let or hindrance

They did try to help those nasty Syrians build a rather unpleasant piece of kit though - which could qualify as being internationally threatening.
Until my Sufa-flying friends Yosi and Ravi stopped them.

[Heathrow Harry]

bit like the pakistanis who helped out various people with nuclear technology... or various countries both western and eastern (including those from Tel Aviv) who cheerfully peddle arms to anyone who will buy them

We all need the money I guess.................

[A_Van]

New SK president has been just sworn in. Let's see if any changes take place. He vaguely mentioned that would be interested to soften tension with NK.
When "peacemakers" arrive in such situations, I always have ambivalent feelings because the whole thing depends on both sides. And if the "bad side" uses this "warming" to speed up the development of weapons, all would lose in the end.

On the military side of the coin, I am sure that pre-emptive strike against fat Kim-the-grandson has not taken place because the scenarios were accurately simulated, carefully evaluated and consequences found unacceptable. Current modeling and simulation (M&S) techniques and tools are good enough and way more accurate than trivial math based on the Lanchester's laws. Realistic behavior of hundreds of thousand interacting entities can be simulated. Indeed, characteristics of all the NK weapons are well-known as well as their locations. Behavior and dynamics can also be predicted to a large extent (e.g. processes like "shoot and scoot" or "shoot and hide").

SK military undertake such simulations and training nearly every year with campaigns lasting for about two weeks (!) with involvement of all high-level military staff and many civilian authorities. US DoD M&S experts support them a great deal. Thus, no doubt they all are aware of all the details and potential scenarios. And the fact that those LVC exercises last for 2 weeks testifies (at least indirectly) to difficulties in shutting down NK after the first round of fire exchange.

Again, I am pretty sure that tens of thousands of civilian casualties of SK population near the border is the only limiting factor. If it could be removed somehow, all those Kims would be eliminated shortly along with their names well before they possess NW and BMs. But how to do that? Even if a massive evacuation takes place in the north part of the RoK, NK would consider it as a "casus belli".

Thus, if there is any chance of peaceful measures to work, such lines should be elaborated and tried. Obviously, the best way would be propaganda and arranging more contacts with SK relatives so that NK people would see "how things work" in the South. Such a programme was once opened, but then dropped, AFAIK. And how to educated people in NK without contacts when even the radio receivers there have "hardwired" fixed frequencies and changing them (f) would cost you too much. Difficult....

[ethicalconundrum]

I was lucky enough to be stationed at a forward RoK marine base back in the 80s. I can't say where, but we could see the occasional tracer or star shell come down from the north. The RoK Marines are a nasty, ready, no BS group of guys. I could easily see a 5:1 or better kill ratio in combat with the north engaging the RoK Marines. And, notwithstanding any cultural, or racial elements the RoK guys really hate the NK.

Furthermore, we are pretty well prepared along the DMZ. Sure, there's going to be some battle damage in the first 48 hours if things go pear shaped, but after the first 2 days of live action, things will be pretty one-sided. If there are carrier assets nearby, the rear guard of the NK forces are going to be in for a very bad couple of days. The civ losses in SK and around the Seoul area will be bad. I won't lie, it will be a mess to clean up, and plenty of casualties. But - I honesty think that the retaliation won't stop until there is nothing left of Pyongyang, and the Wonsan naval base.

Internationally. China won't move. They might bluster, might rattle some phones, kick a ambassador out, but they will NOT pick up arms. The US is by far their biggest trade partner, and lack of access to the US market at this point is unthinkable to the govt of China.

Russia might send some weapons and/or materiel support, but they ain't gonna send any bodies out there. What's the upside for Russia to support NK? It's a foregone conclusion they will lose against the SK and US, so why stick your neck way out?

Back in the day, we didn't worry much about the NK air assets. Their fixed bases, no matter hardened or not are so vulnerable to AWACS intercepts, that anything getting off the ground from NK should be picked up fairly fast, and dealt with by surface assets. If not, we have a host of fixed wing and rotary wing support near by that very little is going to get through the DMZ.

I"m guessing here that things haven't declined much if any since I left, and more than likely things are being reinforced as we speak. The fat boy up there is no idiot when it comes to self preservation. He has to know he's targeted by multiple systems from the south at all times. I would be concerned if we DIDN'T see him out for a few days, indicating he's gone to ground somewhere. That would worry me more than all his fist shaking and finger wagging.

[tartare]

Interesting.
So from what you know - what do you think the casualties in Seoul etc. might be roughly?

[West Coast]

Concur with the assessment of the RoK Marines. They take fanatical to a new level.

[BEagle]

A country with an unstable megalomaniac leader, who removes anyone who opposes him and threatens the use of nuclear weapons...

North Korea is almost as bad :hmm:

[Heathrow Harry]

"Internationally. China won't move. They might bluster, might rattle some phones, kick a ambassador out, but they will NOT pick up arms."

That's what everyone thought in Summer 1950............... we knew nothing then and we know precious little now - The Chinese might well intervene to keep the RoK and the US away from their borders - I''m sure the USA would do the same if China was pushing up to the Mexican border.............

[Fareastdriver]

That's what everyone thought in Summer 1950

Now the Chinese haven't got 100,000 Nationalist Chinese POWs to lead the charges.

[ExRAFRadar]

A country with an unstable megalomaniac leader, who removes anyone who opposes him and threatens the use of nuclear weapons...

North Korea is almost as bad :hmm:

There really should be a 'Like' or 'Agree' button.

[Heathrow Harry]

I'd press both!!

[Lyneham Lad]

North Korea fires missile days after new South Korea leader pledges dialogue http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea-missiles-idUKKBN1890UQ

A welcome present from Fat Wun to the new SK President.

[BEagle]

I'd press both!!

Just so long as that blustering bully doesn't press any buttons...:eek:

Or Kim Jong Un, for that matter.

[jolihokistix]

Even I can understand this short explanation of DPRK's latest missile. (Posting on both threads as it probably has relevance to everyone.)


https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/videos/20170516154555544/

[jolihokistix]

Great shot of some far-east manoeuvres.
https://japantoday.com/category/national/japan-us-conduct-joint-naval-drill-off-korean-peninsula

[T28B]

There is a Japanese ship between them that did not get a mention in the picture.

[jolihokistix]

Yes, that is strange!

[westernhero]

Young-fat-un has a good laugh with his top brass as he pulls 'Mig-15' out of the hat for the aircraft in his version of the Confederate Air Force which will get closest to the US carriers..... North Korea's Kim Jong-Un grins at air force display | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4573838/Top-G-North-Korean-dictator-grins-air-force-display.html)

[Fareastdriver]

I'll give their Mig15/17s some credit. There wings didn't fall off even if they are seventy years old.

The last ones I saw in China was about twenty years ago and they had been abandoned for some time then.

[westernhero]

Mind, if their wings fell off how would we ever hear of it ? Love to see the Nor K AF accident figures and accident reports ( if such things ever exist). I wonder who carries the can ? I guess I know what happens to them.

[Fareastdriver]

They probably don't do enough flying to have an accident.

The PLAAF pilots I knew at the time were lucky to get 80 hrs/year.

[Lyneham Lad]

On Reuters:-
North Korea fired a projectile that appeared to be a missile shortly before midnight Japan time (1500 GMT) on Friday, Japan's public broadcaster NHK said, citing government officials.

The apparent missile may have landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone, NHK said.

And on the Guardian website
Japan’s prime minister has said North Korea fired what is believed to be a missile that may have landed in the sea off Japan.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters that officials were analysing the apparent launch, just before midnight on Friday, and that he had called a meeting of the National Security Council. He said Japan would take every necessary step to ensure the safety of its citizens.

In Washington, a Pentagon spokesman, Navy Capt Jeff Davis, confirmed that a launch of a ballistic missile from North Korea had been detected.

He said: “We are assessing and will have more information soon.”

[Heathrow Harry]

"The PLAAF pilots I knew at the time were lucky to get 80 hrs/year."

better than some in NATO...................

[Heathrow Harry]

When we buy and build and field thermonuclear weapons it is a GOOD thing

When the N Koreans do it it is a BAD thing

TBH anyone who can should ... if they want to stay independent........

[3 bladed beast]

When we buy and build and field thermonuclear weapons it is a GOOD thing

When the N Koreans do it it is a BAD thing

TBH anyone who can should ... if they want to stay independent........

I couldn't think of a more stable, rational and logical man than Donald Trump being in charge of nuclear weapons.......;-)

[etudiant]

When we buy and build and field thermonuclear weapons it is a GOOD thing

When the N Koreans do it it is a BAD thing

TBH anyone who can should ... if they want to stay independent........

There was an Adelphi paper published by the Institute for Strategic Studies about 20 years ago that highlighted that independence aspect. Iirc, it was authored by an Arabic scholar, someone who had an appreciation of how an underdog feels.
Qaddafi's decision to abandon his nuclear program was swiftly followed by his overthrow. As a result, no rational observer or politician could suggest going non-nuclear in the future. I'd be astonished if Venezuela did not have nuclear program at this point, it is just life insurance.

[Heathrow Harry]

been rumoured for years that the Sauids put up a lot of the money for the pakistan bomb programme on the understanding they'd be able to get one at short notice if threatened by Iran or Israel

[Heathrow Harry]

They have them - or have I missed something?

I think it' a muderous regime and the world would be a safer place if they didn't have them BUT

strip out the emotion and look at etudiant's point - it is a logical thing to acquire if you are capable of building one. A lot of people think Saddam would still be around if he'd had a bomb......... and they don't fancy finishing up like Gaddafi

[A_Van]

No doubt that the "red button" should not be in hands of mad of too nervous people (like that hamster). The Chinese can do a lot indeed, but I am not sure they can stop him entirely. Perhaps only slow down that programme.
So, what to do? This question was re-iterated several times in this thread, and it's obvious that the main problem is potential massive casulties of civil population of South Korea in case shooting of any kind finally starts. Recall that even back in early 90's Clinton and his defense minister were considering a strike to destroy the NK reactor, but the analysis ended with such a conclusion. Nothing really changed since that...


I wonder if the US are really going for a demonstration that they can intercept the NK missile during one of the upcoming tests? THAAD would not help here, but AeGIS cruisers can potentially work it out. Would be interesting to see how/whether AeGIS and SM-3 work against such targets.

[Heathrow Harry]

Hmmm - might work

Cruiser shoots down missile

NK lobs several IRBM at cruiser (or its base) = causus belli for intervention before they have a workeable ICBM ...........................

[MPN11]

Thinking more about the issue[s], following the latest News, how did this primitive, starving, agricultural dictatorship achieve these capabilities?

Did Hun-Gree Wun and family suddenly emerge from his rice paddy and start doing this high-level technology? Or, more sensibly, WHO helped them achieve this? And WHO is now voting against NK in the Security Council, having realised they've let a genie out of the bottle on their own border[s]? Bit late, Comrades, but thanks to you both for the vote.

The more I worry about NK, the more I feel that (with the concurrene of China and Russia) a preemptive strike by the US on NK's nuclear and technology targets is the only credible solution. And it's in China's and Russia's interests, as much as the West's and the rest of SE Asia.

[Rory57]

They are starving because of the massive effort put into other things.
It is 72 years since V2 and Bomb #1, lots of engineering that was incredibly difficult in 1945 is absolutely routine today, even in N.K.. Lots, not all, of the physics is now known to anyone with a good university education. Doubtless N.K. will have taken help where it could be found but it isn't beyond reason to think they could have done it all themselves.

[Fareastdriver]

Very true but when you light the blue touch paper of an intercontinental missile you are kissing goodbye $10,000,000/second.

[MPN11]

Very true but when you light the blue touch paper of an intercontinental missile you are kissing goodbye $10,000,000/second.And, if it hits something more than empty ocean, NK could be saying goodbye to anything resembling technological infrastructure ;)

The Donald might just over-ride any advice and do something dramatic, for good or ill ... to be determined in the aftermath.

[CONSO]

N KOREA " SUPPOSEDLY " considering attack on Guam

IMHO it "probably" is part of the " mine is bigger than yours urination contest :mad:

[Heathrow Harry]

North Korea says considering missile strike on Guam - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40871416)

North Korea has said it is considering carrying out missile strikes on the US Pacific territory of Guam.
The report in state media, quoting an earlier military statement, came hours after President Donald Trump threatened North Korea with "fire and fury".
The North's official news agency said it was considering a plan to fire medium-to-long-range rockets at Guam, where US strategic bombers are based.
The exchanges mark a sharp rise in rhetoric between the two countries. The UN recently approved further economic sanctions on North Korea, which Pyongyang said were a "violent violation of our sovereignty", warning the US would "pay a price".

On Wednesday, the official KCNA news agency said North Korea was "carefully examining the operational plan for making an enveloping fire at the areas around Guam" using its domestically made medium-to-long-range Hwasong-12 missiles. The news agency reported a military statement issued on Tuesday, which probably came in response to US military drills in Guam.

In a message to the public (https://www.facebook.com/eddiebazacalvo/posts/1553799218020674), the governor of Guam Eddie Baza Calvo said there was currently "no threat" to the island and the Marianas archipelago, but that Guam was "prepared for any eventuality".

North Korea's statement is the latest stage in a heating up of rhetoric and tension. Pyongyang, which has tested nuclear devices five times (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17823706), launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) in July, claiming it now had the ability to hit the mainland US. On Tuesday, media reports in the US claimed the North had achieved its goal of making a nuclear warhead small enough to fit inside its missiles. While not confirmed, this was seen as one of the last obstacles to North Korea being a fully nuclear armed state.

A report in the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_nkorea-1212p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.fcac12c2e613), citing US intelligence officials, suggested North Korea is developing nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US at a much faster rate than expected.

A Japanese government defence white paper also said the weapons programme had "advanced considerably" and that North Korea possibly now had nuclear weapons.
In response, President Trump warned North Korea to stop threatening the US, saying they would be "met with fire and fury like the world has never seen". However veteran US Senator John McCain was sceptical about Mr Trump's statement, saying he was "not sure that President Trump is ready to act".

'Scary' situation - BBC's Yogita Limaye in Seoul, South Korea

On the streets of Seoul, barely 50km (30 miles) from the border with North Korea, the latest developments have drawn mixed reactions. Kim Seong-su, 62, said he thought Pyongyang was bluffing to preserve its regime and justify its nuclear programme. But others are more concerned. Yeon Eui-sook says she finds the situation scary. "I hope everyone can live in peace. Kim Jong-un keeps doing this and making us worry," she said.

Analysts say the language from Pyongyang always gets more aggressive in August, when the US and South Korea conduct joint military exercises. But this time - with a US president who also uses strong words - the confrontation is getting even fiercer than usual. North Korea had reacted angrily after the fresh sanctions were announced on Saturday by the UN, in an attempt to pressure it into giving up its nuclear ambitions. The sanctions aim to reduce North Korea's export revenues by a third.

KCNA said North Korea would retaliate and make "the US pay a price" for drafting the new measures. It called the sanctions a "violent violation of our sovereignty", the news agency said. China, which is Pyongyang's closest ally, has said it is "100%" committed to enforcing the latest round of sanctions.

Russia and China have previously differed with others on how to handle Pyongyang, but in recent months have joined calls for North Korea to stop its missile tests - while also urging the US and South Korea to halt military drills, and withdraw an anti-missile system from the South.

[A_Van]

In case a NK missile is launched towards Guam, the trajectory goes all the way through SK and then through the southern island of Japan. Geographically speaking, SM-3 and Aegis cruisers could be lined up along the trajectory and shoot it down. Not sure THAAD can make it during the missile ascent phase even if it is located near the NK-SK border.


Much harder situation would take place in case that mad hamster would try to shoot at the US continental territory (when/if his stuff is ready for such a trick). The trajectory would go through the Chinese and Russian territories - no business for SM-3, rely on GBI at Alaska only.

[Cows getting bigger]

The lunatics have definitely taken over the asylum. :(

[ShotOne]

"The Donald might override advice and do something dramatic..". So the prospect of nuclear attack on a US city isn't dramatic?? Much as many are taking delight in the difficult situation faced by the US, it is not of The Donald's making. The neighbouring powers (China!) and previous administrations who facilitated the current situation need to take a hard look at themselves

[enginesuck]

There's very little gained in attacking NK preemptively.

NK has enough conventional Artillery pointed at Seoul - enough to put a shell in every square foot of the city at a moments notice.

North Korea will become a Nuclear armed state and there is very little the US can credibly do about it.

[ZFT]

"The Donald might override advice and do something dramatic..". So the prospect of nuclear attack on a US city isn't dramatic?? Much as many are taking delight in the difficult situation faced by the US, it is not of The Donald's making. The neighbouring powers (China!) and previous administrations who facilitated the current situation need to take a hard look at themselves

Poking a stick at a rabid dog doesn't help the situation?

[pasta]

Poking a stick at a rabid dog doesn't help the situation?

Are you thinking of Kim Jong-un as the stick-poker and Donald Trump as the dog, or vice versa? From an outside perspective the analogy seems to work either way...

[Heathrow Harry]

Ex CIA guy on Radio 4 saying the USA has far weaker sanctions on NK than they ever had agisnst Iran - the could turn the screw a lot further if they want to

[The Old Fat One]

North Korea will become a Nuclear armed state and there is very little the US can credibly do about it.

Well, we all better hope that that is not true. Because if it is, and North Korea becomes a fully operational nuclear power, much of the rest of the militarised world will quickly follow suit...starting with Japan and South Korea.

And then it just a matter of time until someone sneezes too close to the button.

Still I guess a million years hence it will be good to give the dinosaurs another run at it.

[Treble one]

Whilst it's not ideal that NK is a nuclear state then is it not just another nuclear state. Admittedly the man in charge isn't especially stable.

But surely he knows that if he attacks Guam/Hawaii/continental US then it will likely be the last thing he ever does? Presumably thats deterrence?

Maybe he doesn't care but I'm sure that Chinese/Japanese/South Koreans and everyone else will.

Trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place?

[ShotOne]

A war on the Korean Peninsula would be a terrible outcome and we hope it won't come to that. But that's far from a worst case scenario from a US perspective!

Re. the rabid dog/stick analogy; years of "leave-nice-doggy-alone" policy can hardly be called a roaring success as it's left us with nuclear missiles pointing at us!

[etudiant]

Nuclear weapons have become the 'must have' accessory for any national leader wishing to avoid the blessings of western style democracy. That is surely the lesson taught by Libya and Syria.
NK has them, so the other countries around that state will have to adjust, as there is no affordable military solution.

Most plausible outcome is a South Korean nuclear weapons program, as well as a Japanese military spending surge.
Think those are both undesirable from a Chinese perspective, although the regime there may appreciate tensions as a distraction from domestic issues.

A more creative solution might be to help NK get richer. They would be less inclined to rock the boat if they had a comfortable ride.

[Fareastdriver]

A more creative solution might be to help NK get richer

The FatWun can't allow that. They will buy televisions and mobile phones and be able to talk to people over long distances and find out what a shambles their country is. The last thing he wants is for his population to get facts.

Even in China the local governments cannot steamroller projects through like the old days.

[etudiant]

The FatWun can't allow that. They will buy televisions and mobile phones and be able to talk to people over long distances and find out what a shambles their country is. The last thing he wants is for his population to get facts.

Even in China the local governments cannot steamroller projects through like the old days.

Seen like a reasonable thing to ask China and South Korea to help with.
They should be very happy to, it would be a lot easier sale to their own people as well as much cheaper than a military confrontation.

[tartare]

Interesting NBC piece on how the B-1 might be used (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/b-1-bombers-key-u-s-plan-strike-north-korean-n791221)if it all kicks off.

[CONSO]

I'm sure everyone has seen the clips of a ' medium' range NK missile being launched in a cloud of red smoke. The red smoke is a clue to thde propellant combination bering used. red fuming nitric acid and some form of a mixed amine fuel ( hydrazine ? ) . Similar to that used on the first nuke amed ballistic missile in the US called the Corporal- basically a updated version of the german A4/( V2), and similar to the titan missiles. Fuels ignite on contact ( hypergolic) - Which means very vunerable before launch or in storage. Along with cooling issues for long range. While the NK missiles may not be very accurate- the question becomes how close to guam consists of an ' attack". IMHO- those particular missiles can be very easily stopped even with a near miss by almost any anti missile detonated within a few hundred yards due to required thin tanks and very touchy fuel pumps or pressurization systems- almost any leak or inadvertant mixing of fuel and oxidizer would be sufficient.

break out the popcorn:cool:

[tartare]

More detail (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/10/north-korea-details-guam-strike-trump-load-of-nonsense)- allegedly - on exactly what the Norks are proposing.
That puts the US in a tricky position.
How do you respond to four missiles fired at Guam, but clearly flagged to splashdown in bracketing fire?
Shoot em down anyway?
What if you miss - how will you look then?
Or respond in kind?
Land a shot or four off the North Korean coast in international waters?

[Willard Whyte]

I'm sure everyone has seen the clips of a ' medium' range NK missile being launched in a cloud of red smoke. The red smoke is a clue to thde propellant combination bering used. red fuming nitric acid and some form of a mixed amine fuel ( hydrazine ? ) . Similar to that used on the first nuke amed ballistic missile in the US called the Corporal- basically a updated version of the german A4/( V2), and similar to the titan missiles. Fuels ignite on contact ( hypergolic) - Which means very vunerable before launch or in storage. Along with cooling issues for long range. While the NK missiles may not be very accurate- the question becomes how close to guam consists of an ' attack". IMHO- those particular missiles can be very easily stopped even with a near miss by almost any anti missile detonated within a few hundred yards due to required thin tanks and very touchy fuel pumps or pressurization systems- almost any leak or inadvertant mixing of fuel and oxidizer would be sufficient.

break out the popcorn:cool:

Vulnerable in the ~3 minute boost phase, but boost phase defence is pretty tricky unless one knows exactly where and when the launch will take place - and even then you have to be perhaps too close for comfort, i.e. within range of anti-ship missiles.

It's why Aegis is a post-boost defence system.

[ORAC]

With an unknown CEP a firing of 4 ICBMs aimed to bracket Guam it would have to be considered an ICBM attack on US territory and invite an immediate retaliatory launch in response before impact.

[crackling jet]

Would not a couple of satellite killing missile carrying F15's sort these NK missiles out ?

[BossEyed]

I 'd guess not.

Satellites: Vectors predictable days in advance.
ICBMs: Not so much. Launch will come as a surprise (partly the point)

Different problem.

Also, I'd think F-15s unlikely to be in range unless a 24/7/365 CAP (where?).

Finally, the ASAT programme was cancelled by the Reagan administration nearly 30 years ago.

[Not_a_boffin]

With an unknown CEP a firing of 4 ICBMs aimed to bracket Guam it would have to be considered an ICBM attack on US territory and invite an immediate retaliatory launch in response before impact.

Well that's the gamble Fat Wun appears to be preparing to play. Not sure finding out whether Trump will fold or not is worth the potential response.


However, it will set a precedent and answer a question.

[Heathrow Harry]

If he brackets Guam it isn't a direct attack on US territory as long as they fall miles away and the zones are announced in advance

BUT he's taking a hell of risk of a stray hitting the married quarters at Andersen......................

[A_Van]

[QUOTE=Heathrow Harry;9858123]If he brackets Guam it isn't a direct attack on US territory as long as they fall miles away and the zones are announced in advance

.........QUOTE]

"Announced in advance" are the key words and the point where the problem is.

Fat Un did not bother to warn anybody when he was dropping previous missiles in the sea near Japan. Shall we expect him to point out some neutral zones around Guam?

[Lonewolf_50]

If he brackets Guam it isn't a direct attack on US territory as long as they fall miles away and the zones are announced in advance

BUT he's taking a hell of risk of a stray hitting the married quarters at Andersen......................
Harry, I suggest you learn a bit about Guam: Pretty much everyone living there is an American citizen, not just the uniformed people.


Go ahead and Google the excerpt form the Governor of Guam who responded to some fool on Fox news who asserted that there are only about 3000 Americans on Guam. There are over 100,000 American citizens in Guam, a Territory of the US.

[ORAC]

If he brackets Guam it isn't a direct attack on US territory as long as they fall miles away and the zones are announced in advance If someone fires an ICBM at you don't wait to see if and where it lands and what it's carrying before you respond.

Once you take start playing the game of first and second strikes, preemption and decapitation you take the consequences of your actions. Best to read the rule book first.

[Treble one]

Presumably the B1 crews in Guam will be at a very high state of alert at the moment? RS5 equivalent in old V Force terms?


There seems to be a plan involving their use should NK launch.

[Carbon Bootprint]

I would imagine the THAAD crews there are staying sharpish as well.

[West Coast]

If someone fires an ICBM at you don't wait to see if and where it lands and what it's carrying before you respond.


Precisely. If Fatwun thinks his days are numbered, what a better way to leave his mark against the US than kill tens of thousands of them before he finds a warhead on his forehead.

[tartare]

So let's just imagine this.
The Norks fire a Hwasong 12 on a high lofting trajectory (similar to their most recent tests) on a bearing SE towards Guam.
It's clear from that trajectory that it will land well short... lets say for arguments sake a good 100 km out from Guam rather than just the tens of kilometres short that Kim Jong-Un has been talking about.
Is that grounds enough to launch a few Bones and strike?
What if they drop one even further out - into the water halfway across the Philippine Sea on the same bearing?
Or just South East of Yakushima?
Pretty tricky tactical calculus in response; where's your red line?

[CONSO]

So let's just imagine this.
The Norks fire a Hwasong 12 on a high lofting trajectory (similar to their most recent tests) on a bearing SE towards Guam.
It's clear from that trajectory that it will land well short... lets say for arguments sake a good 100 km out from Guam rather than just the tens of kilometres short that Kim Jong-Un has been talking about.
Is that grounds enough to launch a few Bones and strike?
What if they drop one even further out - into the water halfway across the Philippine Sea on the same bearing?
Or just South East of Yakushima?
Pretty tricky tactical calculus in response; where's your red line?

The rising part of most of the noted trajectory would be over southern Japan- and Japan has already said they will defend- shoot.

Ditto for S korea

MY guess Bones on defcon 3 - 15 minutes- can be launched and recalled.

:hmm:

[tartare]

But here's the point.
Even with guided missile ships, THAAD and AEGIS, shooting down a North Korean missile is not an absolute certainty.
This article speculates (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-the-us-and-japan-could-shoot-down-north-korean-missiles-headed-for-guam-2017-8?r=US&IR=T) the US and Japan may just watch for that very reason.
Its 96 percent prediction of a successful shootdown however appears optimistic. Tests of AEGIS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System#Flight_tests_to_date) have been highly engineered. AFAIK it hasn't been subject to a `real-world' test yet? I may be wrong. THAAD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense#Demonstration_and_valida tion) tests to date appear to be repleat with failures.

I realise that B-1s can be launched and retrieved within 15 minutes - all a crewman has to do is hit the Alert Start button on the nosewheel oleo and the APU will begin to power up all four engines as the crew climb the ladder.

To be clearer, my question was when does the US launch and strike. Is the mere firing of a missile in your general direction to land relatively close to territory of yours provocation enough?
In Japan's case, no.
Is Guam different...?

[PrivtPilotRadarTech]

To be clearer, my question was when does the US launch and strike. Is the mere firing of a missile in your general direction to land relatively close to territory of yours provocation enough?


Our Commander in Chief is cut from the same cloth as Fat Wun. Don't bother asking logical questions.

[CONSO]

But here's the point.
Even with guided missile ships, THAAD and AEGIS, shooting down a North Korean missile is not an absolute certainty.
This article speculates (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-the-us-and-japan-could-shoot-down-north-korean-missiles-headed-for-guam-2017-8?r=US&IR=T) the US and Japan may just watch for that very reason.
Its 96 percent prediction of a successful shootdown however appears optimistic. Tests of AEGIS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System#Flight_tests_to_date) have been highly engineered. AFAIK it hasn't been subject to a `real-world' test yet? I may be wrong. THAAD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense#Demonstration_and_valida tion) tests to date appear to be repleat with failures.

I realise that B-1s can be launched and retrieved within 15 minutes - all a crewman has to do is hit the Alert Start button on the nosewheel oleo and the APU will begin to power up all four engines as the crew climb the ladder.

To be clearer, my question was when does the US launch and strike. Is the mere firing of a missile in your general direction to land relatively close to territory of yours provocation enough?
In Japan's case, no.
Is Guam different...?

well Guam is U.S territory- and as I speculated before re the likely missile ( Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles ) is a not too reliable acid and udmh fueled missile- during powereed flight is nn easy target for near miss to take out. And who wants to take a chance on what it may be armed with- opr even unarmed. And at that range ( Guam ) warhead is probably low supersonic or even subsonic at less than 30 k feet. So chances of a good intercept IMHO are very good.

IMHO- U.S will first try to intercept- and even if successful- will most likely launch a impressive fireworks display over a certain palace - sort of a " gotcha " whenever we want you notice.

And by the way the start button on nosegear was first planned for the B-70 in the late 50's, but planned to use a wheeled apu " cart" to be dropped just as plane started to takeoff.

[PrivtPilotRadarTech]

And at that range ( Guam ) warhead is probably low supersonic or even subsonic at less than 30 k feet.

Even the WWII V2 had a terminal velocity of 1,790 mph. According to one expert's opinion on the Hwasong-12, "In the simulation ... the velocity during the re-entry peaks at 5.4 km/s. [nearly Mach 16] ... The velocity is a lot higher than the peak velocity reached by the Musudan, however, and is closer to ICBM velocities." I couldn't find an estimate of the terminal velocity, but surely it is much higher than that of a V2.

[glad rag]

Great big doppler yummy yummy

[ORAC]

Launch on Warning (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_on_warning) is still official policy. In that context the following reflects the current reality. Without guessing what the preplanned response to aNK launch would be, waiting to see where the landed (and he estimated CEP of the Hwasong-14 is around 30Km, about the distance they claim to miss by), waiting for impact is not in line with how the system is designed to react and respond.


World War Three, by Mistake | The New Yorker (http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/world-war-three-by-mistake)

".......The launch-on-warning policy became controversial during the nineteen-seventies, once it was publicly known. The hundreds of missiles based on American submarines, almost impossible to find in the depths of the ocean, seemed more than adequate to deter a Soviet attack. During testimony before the House Armed Services Committee in 1979, Fred Iklé, a conservative Republican who later became a top Pentagon official during the Reagan Administration, said, “If any witness should come here and tell you that a totally reliable and safe launch-on-warning posture can be designed and implemented, that man is a fool.” The Pentagon repeatedly denied that launch-on-warning was American policy, claiming that it was simply one of many options for the President to consider. A recent memoir, “Uncommon Cause,” written by General George Lee Butler, reveals that the Pentagon was not telling the truth. Butler was the head of the U.S. Strategic Command, responsible for all of America’s nuclear weapons, during the Administration of President George H. W. Bush.

According to Butler and Franklin Miller, a former director of strategic-forces policy at the Pentagon, launch-on-warning was an essential part of the Single Integrated Operational Plan (siop), the nation’s nuclear-war plan. Land-based missiles like the Minuteman III were aimed at some of the most important targets in the Soviet Union, including its anti-aircraft sites. If the Minuteman missiles were destroyed before liftoff, the siop would go awry, and American bombers might be shot down before reaching their targets. In order to prevail in a nuclear war, the siop had become dependent on getting Minuteman missiles off the ground immediately. Butler’s immersion in the details of the nuclear command-and-control system left him dismayed. “With the possible exception of the Soviet nuclear war plan, [the siop] was the single most absurd and irresponsible document I had ever reviewed in my life,” Butler concluded. “We escaped the Cold War without a nuclear holocaust by some combination of skill, luck, and divine intervention, and I suspect the latter in greatest proportion.” The siop called for the destruction of twelve thousand targets within the Soviet Union. Moscow would be struck by four hundred nuclear weapons; Kiev, the capital of the Ukraine, by about forty.

After the end of the Cold War, a Russian surprise attack became extremely unlikely. Nevertheless, hundreds of Minuteman III missiles remained on alert. The Cold War strategy endured because, in theory, it deterred a Russian attack on the missiles. McNamara called the policy “insane,” arguing that “there’s no military requirement for it.” George W. Bush, while running for President in 2000, criticized launch-on-warning, citing the “unacceptable risks of accidental or unauthorized launch.” Barack Obama, while running for President in 2008, promised to take Minuteman missiles off alert, warning that policies like launch-on-warning “increase the risk of catastrophic accidents or miscalculation.” Twenty scientists who have won the Nobel Prize, as well as the Union of Concerned Scientists, have expressed strong opposition to retaining a launch-on-warning capability. It has also been opposed by former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former Secretary of State George Shultz, and former Senator Sam Nunn. And yet the Minuteman III missiles still sit in their silos today, armed with warheads, ready to go......"

[megan]

Does Guam still exist? I thought it was going to capsize, and presumably sink. With talent such as this directing affairs of state we can sleep safe and sound.

cesSRfXqS1Q

[A_Van]

If NK really launch a BM to Guam and the boost phase is OK, then line out THAAD in SK, it will not help. SM-3 can help, but as it was correctly mentioned above, the intercept probability is not yet proven. And if they miss, it would make NK more than happy and even more furious.


However, THAAD batteries are located at Guam for a long time already. And from the trajectory point of view, it would be indeed their "use case" (note "terminal area" in its name). Official reports on all the recent tests (about a dozen in the last 10 years) said they were successful. So, Guam seems to be prepared...

[ORAC]

Australia will back US in any conflict with North Korea, Turnbull says (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/11/turnbull-pledges-support-to-us)

Malcolm Turnbull has made it plain that Australia will be involved in any conflict in the event North Korea attacks the United States.

The prime minister told 3AW on Friday morning “if there is an attack on the US, the Anzus treaty would be invoked” and Australia would come to the aid of the United States.

He said the form of Australia’s engagement would be determined in consultation with allies. “In terms of defence, we are joined at the hip,” Turnbull said.......

[Martin the Martian]

RAF planes could be sent to spy on North Korea's nuclear bases after US asks for help hunting Kim Jong-un's missile stocks - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/raf-planes-could-sent-spy-10966799)

[PhilipG]

As I understand it, there are not just B1s on Guam, there have been and may still be B2s and B52s, among other assets.

If there is to be a scramble on launch of the B1s, armed conventionally I assume, what is going to happen to the possibly strategically more important Nuclear Capable B52s and B2s?

Not sure if it might not be an idea to relocate the B2s and B52s? As their launch gives a specific message.

[ORAC]

Press reports claim that the B-1s are deployed specifically because they are not nuclear capable and if used against NK will not be seen as a potential threat by China. No B-52s or B-2s currently deployed in the region.

[PhilipG]

Press reports claim that the B-1s are deployed specifically because they are not nuclear capable and if used against NK will not be seen as a potential threat by China. No B-52s or B-2s currently deployed in the region.

Glad to hear that there seems to be some common sense then.

[D-IFF_ident]

RAF planes could be sent to spy on North Korea's nuclear bases after US asks for help hunting Kim Jong-un's missile stocks - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/raf-planes-could-sent-spy-10966799)

A Boom on those Voyagers may be looking a little more necessary if the RCs are required to provide round-the clock surveillance.

[Not_a_boffin]

RAF planes could be sent to spy on North Korea's nuclear bases after US asks for help hunting Kim Jong-un's missile stocks - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/raf-planes-could-sent-spy-10966799)



Operation "Save R1 Sentinel" to the thread please....

[Tocsin]

Operation "Save R1 Sentinel" to the thread please....

Janes are reporting that the R1 previously on Op SHADER duty has been withdrawn... ;)

[Treble one]

Slightly surprised to hear that the B1 is not nuclear capable given that it was developed at the height of the Cold War?

Would have thought it was a pretty good platform for low level ingress at speed against a very capable IADS?

[Martin the Martian]

It was exclusively used in the nuclear role up until 1990-ish, when conventional weapons were fitted for the first time. It had lost its nuclear role by 1995, following the end of the Cold War and the inactivation of SAC.

[ORAC]

Treble one - SALT Treaties...

B-1B Variants (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/b-1b-variants.htm)

[Willard Whyte]

I don't think there's a technical reason why the B-1B can't carry a nuclear weapon any more, a GBU-31 (JDAM equipped Mk 84) is similar in size and weight to a B61.

Of course, it would be a treaty violation for it to do so as because, as has been pointed out/linked to, it has been declared a conventional bomber.

[Treble one]

Thank you MtM and ORAC.

[Not_a_boffin]

I don't think there's a technical reason why the B-1B can't carry a nuclear weapon any more, a GBU-31 (JDAM equipped Mk 84) is similar in size and weight to a B61.

Of course, it would be a treaty violation for it to do so as because, as has been pointed out/linked to, it has been declared a conventional bomber.


May have had the PAL removed as part of treaty compliance......

[barnstormer1968]

Listening to the TV news last night there was a rundown of the NK forces and it stated just how many aircraft the NK airforce have.
My initial thoughts were the obvious things like a Mig 15/17 wouldnt be too much of an issue for an F15 or 16.
The Mig 21s are more modern and the Mig 29s more modern again.
But even if we assume all US aircraft are modern, with modern systems and AWACS coverage it still leaves the fact the NK airforce have a large number of aircraft on paper.

How many fighters would NK have in an airworthy condition?
The question would be pointless if the NK runways became unusable, but if not there could be an awful lot of NK targets in the air and a finite number of US air to air missiles to target them with.

Obviously answers only need to be generic, but I've found recent news reports very interesting and alarming at the same time. Almost all reporters equate one NK atomic weapon to one US nuclear weapon, a 'rocket' as being the same item used by both sides and each sides fighter aircraft in the same capability group.

[Carbon Bootprint]

Does Guam still exist? I thought it was going to capsize, and presumably sink. With talent such as this directing affairs of state we can sleep safe and sound.
The incoherent testimony from the (Democratic) representative from Georgia makes a good case for drug and alcohol testing of the legislative branch of the US government, at the least.

[West Coast]

No idea how may MiG21s they have, but they won't wander far from mother, so unless what the B whatevers are bombing is right close to an airport or established stretch of road, their impact will be minimal I would think.

[Cazalet33]

https://s7.postimg.org/nz6px1x1n/Guamo.jpg

[CONSO]

I don't think there's a technical reason why the B-1B can't carry a nuclear weapon any more, a GBU-31 (JDAM equipped Mk 84) is similar in size and weight to a B61.

Of course, it would be a treaty violation for it to do so as because, as has been pointed out/linked to, it has been declared a conventional bomber.

And which treaty has N korea signed ?? I dont think it was that one !! :E

[PrivtPilotRadarTech]

And which treaty has N korea signed ?? I dont think it was that one !! :E

The treaty is with the Russians. Not a good idea to violate it, and it's not necessary. When I was in the USAF it was SLBM's that were most feared because their flight time is so short. I'm sure there is one or more boomer cruising off the Korean peninsula, ready to take out the prime targets if it comes to that.

[Carbon Bootprint]

The treaty is with the Russians. Not a good idea to violate it, and it's not necessary. When I was in the USAF it was SLBM's that were most feared because their flight time is so short. I'm sure there is one or more boomer cruising off the Korean peninsula, ready to take out the prime targets if it comes to that.
Agreed, there are likely a bunch of Tridents on the ready...

Too much money to spend for not giving them a chance at (more or less) the action for which they were designed.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

[A_Van]

Interesting, and a bit strange to read and hear (in media) about B-1B to use bombs in case the situation with NK goes that far. Why not cruise missiles from ships or subs (or the same B-1B) some 1500 miles away with no risk of entering the reachability zone for SA ground complexes?


NK planes seems to be not a serious issue in this bad scenario because all the air strips would be damaged in a couple of days. But C-300ПТ (SA-10) presumably shipped from Ukraine long ago and recently built KN-06 (using Chinese technologies) would be a more serious threat.

[ORAC]

Because cruise missile warheads are not bunker busters - though I am sure many would be used against softer targets such as C4 sites, SAW and airfields, whilst the B-1Bs would then do the heavy lifting carrying up to 24 of weapons such as the BLU-116 (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/blu-116.htm).

[dazdaz1]

I would suggest the B1s would be deployed against artillery on the NK border.

[Onceapilot]

When I was in the USAF it was SLBM's that were most feared because their flight time is so short. I'm sure there is one or more boomer cruising off the Korean peninsula, ready to take out the prime targets if it comes to that.

And quite right! Never mind the Brouhaha about the latest waste of UK taxpayers money on a large floating target! The Boats are where the real capability lies today. Of course, supported by land based Air and Boots when required! :uhoh:

OAP

[Carbon Bootprint]

I would suggest the B1s would be deployed against artillery on the NK border.
I believe it was reported earlier that the plan is to use them to drop bunker busters on Yung Fat Un's hardened missile sites and air bases. Perhaps there is other hardware in the theater that is well suited to take out the artillery.

[West Coast]

Sniper pod or not, I don't see the B1 doing the role that should be assigned to a tactical aircraft. As they're artillery is mobile, unless the fat one lines them up in a row for the B1 to take them out in one pass (not) that it would be at a disadvantage compared to smaller tactical aircraft.

[CONSO]

Many years ago- U.S detonated a nuke at high alitude in the pacific- EMP result took out part of the power grid in Hawaii- many many miles away. So much for accuracy if a EMP version nuke is launched with maybe a CEP of a few hundred miles. And NOT much of a reentry vehicle - or a heat shield is needed to survive at over 50k feet or so.

Maybe game has gone from checkers to chess or ma johgn or ???

Hope it stays a the ' mine is bigger than yours stage ' and not the ' double dare you " stage