TU154 out of Sochi is missing.

[G-V]

Russian military TU154 is missing after departing Sochi.

[Bonzo777]

Said to be army plane with 70-100 souls on board, including musicians. Some info that they were on a flight to Latakia, Syria.

[CONSO]

Russian military plane disappears from radar after takeoff near Sochi

Updated 12:22 AM ET, Sun December 25, 2016


(CNN)A Russian military plane carrying 83 passengers and eight crew members disappeared from radar Sunday morning after taking off near Sochi, a Defense Ministry spokesman told the RIA Novosti news agency.


A Russian military plane has disappeared from radar just minutes after take-off from the Black Sea resort of Sochi, local media have said.
They quoted a source at the emergency ministry as saying the missing aircraft was a Tu-154.
The country's defence ministry later confirmed its plane was missing, adding that 91 people were on board, Russia's news agencies said.
Unconfirmed reports said the plane was flying to Syria's Latakia province.
Interfax news agency reports quoted the emergency ministry source as saying the plane disappeared from radar 20 minutes after taking off from Sochi's Adler airport at 05:20 local time (02:20 GMT).
The aircraft went missing as it was manoeuvring over Russia's territorial waters, the source added.
Local news agencies later quoted Russia's defence ministry as saying that 83 passengers and eight crew were on board the plane.
Reports suggest a military music band and reporters were among those on board the aircraft.
A search operation was now under way, Russia's state-run Rossiya24 TV channel said.

[Bonzo777]

The plane made a refueling stop in Sochi. Flight originated from a military airport near Moscow.

[Bobman84]

Russian Defence Ministry reporting debris found in the Black Sea.

Location appears not far from Armavia A320 crash in 2006.

This will likely mark the longest ever gap between TU-154 fatalities since its introduction in 1972 at almost six years (previously no more than three up to 2011).

[peter we]

And for six years the Russians have refused to return the wreckage of the Polish Airforce Tu-154.

[SummerLightning]

Musicians aboard were from the Alexandrov Ensemble - aka the Red Army Choir. Due to entertain troops in Syria.
Russian military plane crashes in Black Sea near Sochi - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38430164)

[PashaF]

Eh. Tu-154 is notorious for it tendency to a stall and immediate transition to flat-spin afterwards.
And here we have fully loaded plane at low attitude and above treacherous coastline waters. It was almost certainly microburst or something.
To put an act of terror into consideration would be clearly exotic, is not Europe there you know.

[Super VC-10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Russian_Defence_Ministry_Tupolev_Tu-154_crash

[olandese_volante]

another Christmas Muslim terror attack
If Da'esh PR read PPRUNE, they'll be busy editing the claim video right this moment ;)

Grauniad has this:
Russia’s RIA news agency, citing an unidentified security source, said preliminary data indicated the plane had crashed because of a technical malfunction, Reuters reported.
and I wouldn't be surprised.
The '154 apparently has a reputation of being a reliable aircraft, but the ones still flying are old & weary, and ru.mil kit tends to suffer from lack of maintenance across the board.

[5 APUs captain]

Airplane was 33 y.o.

[CDG1]

LIVE: Tu-154 plane craches near Sochi en route to Syria
December 25, 2016 Gleb Fedorov, RBTH, TASS
LIVE: Tu-154 plane craches near Sochi en route to Syria | Russia Beyond The Headlines (http://rbth.com/politics_and_society/2016/12/25/live-debris-of-tu-154-plane-found-near-sochi-coast_667721)


Video of the same Tu-154 5 years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzyUIhAyfzs&feature=youtu.be

Photo of crashed Russian #Tu154 plane
RA-85572 - Russia - Air Force Tupolev Tu-154B-2 at Chkalovsky | Photo ID 752826 | Airplane-Pictures.net (http://www.airplane-pictures.net/photo/752826/ra-85572-russia-air-force-tupolev-tu-154b-2/)

-50%

[AN2 Driver]

Not the same plane CHG1, the one doing the dance on the sky was 88563, the one which was lost now is 88672.

Surprising that it was a B2, I thought those had been grounded and only M variants still flying. But this B2 even had the new livery.

[Noxegon]

The world is a poorer place this morning. Anyone who's ever played Tetris will be familiar with the work of the Alexandrov Ensemble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfBeeVKhPHE

[Kulverstukas]

Recorded ATC of this flight from engine start approval till the end.

http://archive-server.liveatc.net/urss/URSS-Dec-25-2016-0200Z.mp3

[CDG1]

12:29 Moscow time: The Tu-154 plane that crashed off the Black Sea coast near Sochi on Sunday was manufactured more than 30 years ago and underwent scheduled maintenance this September, and was flown by an experienced pilot, Russia’s Defense Ministry said.

"The Tu-154 plane of the military and transport aviation of Russia’s Defense Ministry was flown by experienced pilot Roman Volkov," the ministry said in a statement. Volkov is class 1 pilot who had more than 3,000 hours of flight.

The Tu-154 plane was manufactured in 1983 and had 6,689 hours of flight. "The last repair was on December 29, 2014, and in September 2016 it underwent scheduled maintenance," the ministry said.

-50%
http://rbth.com/politics_and_society/2016/12/25/live-debris-of-tu-154-plane-found-near-sochi-coast_667721

[Kulverstukas]

http://cdn.tass.ru/width/333_3412a45b/tass/m2/uploads/i/20161225/4410109.png

[CDG1]

Alexandrov Ensemble (Red Army Choir) - Whole Concert
Published on Feb 20, 2014
Ensemble Concert at the House of Music in 2009.
Song and Dance Ensemble of the Russian Army - A.V. Alexandrov.
Chief conductor and artistic director - People's Artist of Russia, Professor Igor Raevskii.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4ria6UZbSg

[AN2 Driver]

Thanks Kulverstukas.

Hope someone can do a transcript in English... don't understand enough to make head or toe of it. But it does sound like routine traffic until they start calling him quite urgently.

[Kulverstukas]

But it does sound like routine traffic until they start calling him quite urgently.

Which again makes us wonder if it was not a bomb onboard :(

[hawkerjet]

Im wondering why they stopped in Sochi? While i dont know the 154 well, wouldnt it have the range to fly to Syria from Moscow ? maybe someone could enlighten me

[AN2 Driver]

We can't really say this or anything else with the facts we have now. Therefore it would be helpful to know what this ATC tape really says after the take off.

Im wondering why they stopped in Sochi?

Fuel stop is what the consensus seems to be. Planned stop.

[Alice025]

Disaster. They are all muscovites and could have flown by ordinary passenger airline to Damascus. Instead of by the centuries old defense ministry jet. It is called Russia army but which army. 9 journalists, 68 Alexandrov army music band, 1 doctor Lisa, Elizabeth Glinka, a very famous good woman. Head of internet based organisation, un-paid, who shout a call to look for lost people. It is called "Lisa Alert" in Russia. That you can shout my relative, a child, a pensioner, an ill person didn't return home, and then there's an internet shout given and locals , from the area,leave beds and go , look! Walk through trains, walk the city, walk, in lines, forest. They found hundreds of people this way - that police couldn't. Mother Theresa and Florince Nightingale combined, that is "Doctor Lisa". Absolutely harmless music band - all of it! must be. And a good heart doctor and woman.


In Syria half the people are lost, must be. That's why she flew, to start a movement there.
and - Christmas carols singing for Christian Syrians and for Russians there. aha.

[AN2 Driver]

Alice, in all fairness, this airplane was built in 1984 and had comparatively few flight hours if the numbers are correct. Neither is it centuries old nor are the TU's known for mechanical weaknesses.

Yes it is a disaster, a huge loss for the Russian people and indeed for the world.

But we have to be careful to jump to conclusions. A TU154, even a B2, doesn't fall out of the sky like this without a good reason.

[JCviggen]

Which again makes us wonder if it was not a bomb onboard

Always a valid concern, but probably not that likely in this case. Would be quite the embarrassment for airport security with a flight like this.

Only 2 minutes after T/O, if stuff hit the fan it's likely there would be no time or spare capacity for a low priority radio contact.

Such a pointless tragedy though. Given Russia's defense budget why are they still flying this stuff in a less than ideal condition.

[space-shuttle-driver]

I was once at a concert of the Alexandrov Choir. Possibly the best concert I have ever been to, and trust me, my regular music is Rock made by men with long hair.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85y0A7unMw0
What a loss!

[eu01]

Which again makes us wonder if it was not a bomb onboardYou really dare to write this? The chairman of the Russian Federation Council defense and security committee has ruled it out almost immediately:
"The theory of terrorism is out of the question. It was a Defense Ministry aircraft, flying in Russian airspace. That theory is out of the question,":hmm::ugh: So even if the bomb hypothesis were true, that would not be disclosed, I guess.

[Alice025]

AN2 Driver, you're right, I haven't considered it's in defense ministry ownership, the airplane, means - wasn't over-used, no regular flights, most likely - was idle most of the time. Even - more mysterious. These days, when Russian Ambassadors got shot out as turkey-s ! I mean - our ambassador in Istanbul, in art gallery opening - can be any thing! But then - as I understand - no one would "plot" mean things for the jet in Sochi - as the fuelling stop over there was un-planned? They changed fuelling location when already in air, because of weather conditions in Mozdok? Who'd "expect" them, in Sochi?

[Kulverstukas]

You really dare to write this?

Gosh! Must I prepare my GULAG outfit already?

[AN2 Driver]

Alice,

>>They changed fuelling location when already in air, because of weather conditions in Mozdok? Who'd "expect" them, in Sochi?

Oh, interesting. One tidbit of information that if it is correct is interesting to know.

With this kind of thing, speculation will arise almost immediately, that is natural and also well known. On the other hand, we have to realize that expeccially in this day and age, a proper investigation does take time. The first few hours after an accident are always full of misinformation, speculation and other wild guesses, it usually takes a few days before we even start to get an idea what went wrong.

"Don't know" in this situation doesn't sell any papers but it is exactly where we stand at this time. We, and for all proper purposes, and the investigators who start their job now, simply don't know anything else that this airplane crashed for reasons yet to be determined.

Also the original denial of suspicious activity could well be an act of human denial, "it can't happen to us" kind of thing. Understandable and human, I would not put too much importance into that either. We all once thought stuff like this is not possible and had to learn otherwise.

[5 APUs captain]

Looks like they have taken fuel in Adler to avoid refueling in Damaskus.

[Kulverstukas]

They changed fuelling location when already in air, because of weather conditions in Mozdok? Who'd "expect" them, in Sochi?

Source? Can you give explanation where this info is came from?

[Raydispatch]

It looks like the airplane disappeared right after takeoff at about 600ft, it never made a contact with approach. They found tiny pieces and bodies scattered 5km over the sea.
Seems they were flying to Syria to celebrate victory over the rebels since they had military orchestra and members of propaganda media on board.

I do believe it could be an explosion, maybe they oveloaded the airplane with firecrakers?

From early morning russian web is swarming with propoganda trolls desperately trying to prove it was not an explosion. Usually it means the opposite:)

[Kulverstukas]

NSFW

Video from rescue ship

https://embed.life.ru/video/56a377e5044e1bd841e0cae467aa89e7?setup=eyJhZHMiOnsiYWRUYWdVc mwiOiJodHRwczovL3Zhc3QubGlmZS5ydS9hcGkvdm1hcC54bWw%2FZG9tYWl uPWxpZmUucnUmdWlkPXptMnY2anZ3c2VsNDE3ZWUmY2I9MC42MzIwNzU1OTg zMTkyMTEyIiwicHJlcm9sbFRpbWVvdXQiOjUwMDB9fQ%3D%3D

[AN2 Driver]

Alice and Kulverstukas,

you appear to be in Russia, do you speak Russian, if so, could any of you have a look at the ATC sound file posted earlier and maybe do a transcript? The time of interest is not so much before the departure clearance but from then on. What was said, particularly what was this big conversation about 3-4 minutes after the take off.

[mikeepbc]

ntv.ru says the navigator of the "dancing tupolev" 85563, colonel Aleksandr Petukhov, was a crewmember on the crashed 85572 Ñðåäè æåðòâ êàòàñòðîôû Òó-154 îêàçàëñÿ ÷ëåí ýêèïàæà «òàíöóþùåé „òóøêè“» // ÍÒÂ.Ru (http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1736598/)
BTW, the 85563 was used on flights to Syria ?????? ??-154 ? ????? . RA-85563 (????????) - ??????? ????????? (http://mil-avia.livejournal.com/122340.html)

[JamesT73J]

What a terrible thing.

The TU-154 - especially a low-cycle mil pony - should be a pretty solid jet. I hope they get to the bottom of it quickly.

[CargoOne]

Destination was Khmeimim Airbase, not Damascus. They were supposed to make a concert for Russian Air Force and troops based there.

[CDG1]

mikeepbc
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: WAW
Age: 49
Posts: 17

ntv.ru says the navigator of the "dancing tupolev" 85563, colonel Aleksandr Petukhov, was a crewmember on the crashed 85572 Ñðåäè æåðòâ êàòàñòðîôû Òó-154 îêàçàëñÿ ÷ëåí ýêèïàæà «òàíöóþùåé „òóøêè“» // ÍÒÂ.Ru
BTW, the 85563 was used on flights to Syria ?????? ??-154 ? ????? . RA-85563 (????????) - ??????? ?????????

-50%

At the end of April 2011 at the Chkalovsky airfield near Moscow a Tu-154 belonging to the Ministry of Defence almost crashed. The crew under the command of Yuri Rodionov was supposed to deliver the aircraft to the repair plant in Samara, but the aircraft was almost uncontrollable. It was decided to land the plane, but the situation was complicated by strong winds.

The plane swerved in the air in different directions, it looked like it might collapse. However they still managed to land it. No one was hurt. Eyewitnesses filmed the incident on video. The Navigator in the crew was Colonel Alexander Petukhov. His name appears in the list of those who were on board the Tu-154 that crashed in Sochi.

:ooh:

[henra]

What a terrible thing.
The TU-154 - especially a low-cycle mil pony - should be a pretty solid jet. I hope they get to the bottom of it quickly.


At night over water at rather low altitude it doesn't take much more than one instrument giving wrong indications to get an otherwise perfectly flyable Airliner quickly into the Ground/Water. I wouldn't expect major/structural cause. Chances are Pilot error (conditions potentially conducive to spatial disorientation), Fuel contamination or something electrical/Flight instruments. Will be interesting to see if we will ever get to know the real cause.

[Alice025]

АN2 Driver, I can't hear the record further than the very beginning, perhaps slow internet now, Christmas, will try later on again. (I am absolutely Russian, correct.)

Yes, I also heard the crew or the pilot himself is that famous "somersaulting TU" pilot in the past. Who managed to land that one down on some. empty place. So, qualified, for. emergencies. Experienced pilot, no suspicions in that direction.

[flash8]

Will be interesting to see if we will ever get to know the real cause.

There is absolutely no reason why we shouldn't, however in any case the real cause would be "leaked" at some stage.

I am also surprised at the B2 variant used (not that it makes much difference in this case) as I have never actually seen a flyable one in fifteen years plus in Russia and many of the CIS countries (being mainly UZ/KZ/GE) as well as Ukraine... I thought most were withdrawn by the 90's.

[tlk]

AN2 Driver (http://www.pprune.org/members/78226-an2-driver)
Alice and Kulverstukas,

you appear to be in Russia, do you speak Russian, if so, could any of you have a look at the ATC sound file posted earlier and maybe do a transcript? The time of interest is not so much before the departure clearance but from then on. What was said, particularly what was this big conversation about 3-4 minutes after the take off.

I'm Russian and I can say that basically you've guessed it right:

AN2 Driver (http://www.pprune.org/members/78226-an2-driver)
But it does sound like routine traffic until they start calling him quite urgently.

There's not much else in there.

At 23:54 she (Sochi Tower - young woman's voice) says 'vzlyot razreshayu' which is the permission to take off. Runway 24.
At 28:56 (almost exactly 5 min later) they start trying to reach RA-85572 again but to no avail (most of the attempts can be heard from 29:34).

As far as I can tell most of the conversations from then on (until the attempts to contact 85572) conducted by another dispatcher (an older woman's voice - I think she called herself Sochi Transit) is with another flight.
I'm not a pilot so it's hard for me to follow all of it - I could've said more if the record quality was better.

There is at least one short phrase involving number 85572 by Sochi Tower at 26:43 but I can't decipher what she said.
And at 27:02 there is a short message (by the pilot himself I think... or a dispatcher): "85572 reading you clear". After that another pilot can be heard engaged in a convo with Sochi Transit.

[Alice025]

But they are cancelled, for passenger airlines. As noisy and consume too much fuel and don't pass modern int'l standards. They must be, stayed on defense ministry balance.

[ericsson16]

Putin has declared 26th as National Mourning Day after a tragic plane crash that killed all 93 on board.
So far 4 bodies have been recovered confirmed that none of them had life jackets. Also military has requested for "criminal investigation"

[TEEEJ]

Im wondering why they stopped in Sochi? While i dont know the 154 well, wouldnt it have the range to fly to Syria from Moscow ? maybe someone could enlighten me

Being a military flight the route would have been into Syria via Caspian Sea Iran/Iraq. Quite rare for Turkey to allow such overflights unless it is a humanitarian cargo.

This was the route of another Tu-154 from Syria on the 19th December.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ra-85041#bef9574

[Alice025]

the tower-pilot talks in youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3l0e-EcqTQ

[Alice025]

some light ? blasts? in the sky where TU were, records from Sochi beach camera-s begin to appear https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE2BRieTgr8




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-K52HANHZE

[The Ancient Geek]

What was in the cargo bay ?
Munitions ?

[deptrai]

I vaguely remembered Russian authorities recommended to retire the tu 154M, and found a reference here:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150402102930/http://www.rp.pl/artykul/625628_Agencja-zaleca-wycofanie-Tu-154M.html

[portmanteau]

ATC lasts 30 minutes from engine start to loss of contact so a guesstimate would be he was airborne 10 minutes after start-up. Sochi/Adler is right on coast.
Aircraft goes into sea 1.5 km offshore. Sounds like he was returning to airport and from tone of transmissions, not in urgent trouble. We may not hear much about it, seems this was a military flight, so might not be subject to ICAO reporting rules.

[5 APUs captain]

http://savepic.ru/12509789.jpg

(position 4 minutes - area of debris)

[lomapaseo]

It's tough on this day to read about such loss of life in an air disaster. In time we will discover the causes and do our best at prevention.

The loss is even more so to even those of us outside Russia when we also consider the cheering mission the passengers were devoting their time to perform.

[Onceapilot]

That beach camera recording shows what looks like a 1 sec duration bright flash in the left-upper area of the frame. To me, it looks like the perspective would mean that the line of sight is well above the water and possibly in, or beyond, cloud.

[AN2 Driver]

Thanks for the translation.

Re the flight path, I don't think that he was returning but he was on the SID BINOL2A, which would pretty much prescribe such a flight track. Even though with the graphic posted before, it would have meant he's turned early at around 7 km rather than 15 NM.

http://s018.radikal.ru/i516/1612/01/184917a6b922.jpg

Something rather abrupt must have happened immediately after the turn. Would be at the point where I'd guess they might have been retracting the flaps.


The Russians did retire the B2 variant I believe from civilian airlines. Obviously not from the Military, which apparently have refurbished and recommissioned some B2 airframes (they also have M's I believe). I was surprised today to hear it was a B2 which crashed today. If I am not mistaken, I read that the plane which went into a severe dutch roll on video in 2011 was one of those which came out of storage and has in the mean time been seen flying. This one came out of storage in 2014 if I understand their coms properly. In terms of hours it was young with 6800 hours. I never saw a reason why they would retire a whole fleet of a well proven airframe like this.

[Karel_x]

ATC lady reported flight plan using SID BINOL 2A - in skycector:
https://skyvector.com/?ll=43.22919511268468,39.79284668267842&chart=304&zoom=3&fpl=%20URSS%20NIDEP%20SS241%20SS243%20BENLU%20BINOL

She instructed them to call Сочи-Подход (Sochi Approach) after reaching 300m (1000ft) but they never called it. Before take off from RWY24 she gave them also standard info (wind, visibility, squawk, pressure, climb to FL100 etc.). The quality of sound is not good and I am not Russian native so I hardly understood

The flash at beach camera record is interesting, but it is not clear if it is linked to the plane. If yes, it looks like some kind of explosion. But it may be anything else.

[421dog]

If someone blew up these guys, who had different politics from many of us, but were, nonetheless, consummate artists, they deserve a special place in a particularly unpleasant realm.

[ericsson16]

"Which means that something sudden and expected occurred seven minutes into the flight. So, I cannot blame the crew, and when there is a technical problem, it is seldom so sudden. [...] They have even found a man near the coast who was injured by the falling debris. Which indicates that fragments of the aircraft were scattered as they were coming down, suggesting that the aircraft exploded in the air," the pilot added.

[olasek]

Which indicates that fragments of the aircraft were scattered as they were coming down, suggesting that the aircraft exploded in the air,
At this early stage - such statements are really meaningless and contribute little to the conversation. Anything could had happened. There were numerous accidents where things unraveled very quickly and suddenly after takeoff and it turned out to be neither a technical problem nor explosion of any sort.

[Eboy]

TASS: World - World leaders react to Tu-154 plane crash off Sochi coast (http://tass.com/world/922311)

As far as others, it's Christmas, and communications offices are short-staffed. More expressions of sympathy will come.

[Basil]

I would certainly hope that all of our Western leaders would be expressing our commiseration.

[ericsson16]

No video,please re-post without the grey back drop.

[Tailspin Turtle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvgvIxpNMn0

[Karel_x]

Without more information, we can imagine many real or fantastic scenarios - flaps and/or HS issue, fuel quality, exceeding MTOW, icing, switching off the fuel pumps for buffer tank, birds strike, mid-air collision with drone, SAM, human error, pilot suicide, lost of spatial awarnes and many others. The bomb theory is one among them and it is poor speculation for making the interview more "spicy".

[KelvinD]

Don't know where the grey backdrop came from, I mere;y posted the link?
Anyway, try this: http:// LiveLeak.com - Redefining the Media (http://www.liveleak.com/) view?i= 631_1482690800
Take the spaces out eg before "view" and before "6" etc
According to the blurb that goes with this, all the controls except ailerons and engines failed!

[megan]

all the controls except ailerons and engines failedNot the case at all, was dutch roll caused by an engineer mis-connecting one of the elements of the automatic on-board flight control system to the power supply.

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/450293-barely-controllable-tu-154-another-ua232.html

[Roadster280]

Don't know where the grey backdrop came from, I mere;y posted the link?
Anyway, try this: http:// LiveLeak.com - Redefining the Media (http://www.liveleak.com/) view?i= 631_1482690800
Take the spaces out eg before "view" and before "6" etc
According to the blurb that goes with this, all the controls except ailerons and engines failed!
That video requires Flash to be installed. Grey background is what is seen unless the plugin is installed. Thankfully Flash is going away, but that's the reason.

[tlk]

Allegedly, this aircraft was being piloted by the same man driving the one that crashed off Sochi.:
LiveLeak.com - Extreme landing of uncontrollable Tu-154 (http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=631_1482690800)
An amazing video!
No he wasn't the pilot nor the PNF, he was the navigator in both cases.

[Bonzo777]

Without more information, we can imagine many real or fantastic scenarios - flaps and/or HS issue, fuel quality, exceeding MTOW, icing, switching off the fuel pumps for buffer tank, birds strike, mid-air collision with drone, SAM, human error, pilot suicide, lost of spatial awarnes and many others. The bomb theory is one among them and it is poor speculation for making the interview more "spicy".

Fuel contamination is not likely - they fueled the buffer tanks only, main tank feeding the engines was full with the Moscow fuel.

[Tankertrashnav]

Viktor Ozerov, head of Russia's defence affairs committee at the upper house of Russian parliament, said in remarks carried by the state news agency RIA Novosti that he "totally excludes terrorism" as a possible cause of the crash.

Whilst conceding that terrorism is only one in a long list of possible causes of the accident, as discussed earlier, I fail to see how this man can say that it can be excluded at this very early stage of the investigation. I assume this statement is being made purely for political reasons in a vain attempt to assure the Russian people that they have nothing to fear from terrorists, unlike people elsewhere. Sensible Russians will no doubt ignore his reassurances.

[peter we]

It was military aircraft going to the front line of a country at war.

[ChiefT]

It was a military flight with also civilian passengers.
And a loss of lifes is always a tradegy. Doesn't matter if civilian or military.

[PashaF]

It was civilian variant of the airliner without any military cargo on board and it crashed in unrestricted airspace. So, whatever element was responsible it is beneficial for the community to discuss it in calm professional manner.

You comment (and i take a courage to say that you as well my good sir) is more fit to "The Sun" comment section

[Pali]

It would be a great irony if the cargo (rogue ammunition for Syrian war maybe?) would be the culprit in this case. If so I don't think it would be ever made public by Russian authorities.

[Karel_x]

The crush site and fuselage was find approx. 1.7 km from the cost. Some fragments and captain body were already lifted. The place is the same as at satellite photo. Depth ca. 50m.

https://meduza.io/image/attachments/images/001/749/725/small/72AmSKCrQHXK00546NymKA.jpg

No military cargo was reportedly aboard.

[DaveReidUK]

It was civilian variant of the airliner without any military cargo on board and it crashed in unrestricted airspace.

Whether it turns out to have any relevance or not, neither we nor you have any knowledge regarding what cargo may or may not have been on board.

[A_Van]

DaveReidUK, Pali:

Living all my life at the (Russian) AF bases and serving at the AF for about 25 years, my strong opinion is that no real military cargo is transported during such flights, with a crowd of civilians (here, musicians, chartity fund activists and especially journalists) with no clearance, etc. Plus, this plane is indeed a civilian passenger one and AF have many other planes available for all kinds of military cargo.


One may call this plane military but it is the same situation when a multi-star general uses a regular Escalade with a driver for every day trips to Pentagon and then back home to a nice Virginia neighborhood. Would this car be considered military?

[cappt]

Kremlin blame pilot error or technical fault for Russian air disaster | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4066108/Kremlin-blame-pilot-error-technical-fault-Russian-air-disaster-killed-92-people-experts-believe-terror-attack.html)

Witness walking on the beach relates her account (jet engine roar, flash, splash.) Towards the end of story.

[peter we]

One may call this plane military but it is the same situation when a multi-star general uses a regular Escalade with a driver for every day trips to Pentagon and then back home to a nice Virginia neighborhood. Would this car be considered military?

Is that a trick question? Of course it would.

[Rob Bamber]

we can imagine many real or fantastic scenarios - flaps and/or HS issue, fuel quality, exceeding MTOW, icing, switching off the fuel pumps for buffer tank, birds strike, mid-air collision with drone, SAM, human error, pilot suicide, lost of spatial awarnes and many others. While engaged in boundless speculation, we should not forget inadequately stowed cargo. Like at Bagram.

[Back door]

Pic of aircraft on ground in Sochi shows wet snow. Anyone have the METAR for that night? De icing issue?

[Karel_x]

The final position gave us a new stone to mosaic:

The plane flew for ca. 10-11 km before crash - investigators told 6km south, then U turn and 4km north. They also told that the speed was approx. 350km/h and that there was lack of climb. It is not clear what exactly they meant by this lack of climb. Anyway, ATC lady instruct the crew to call Sochi approach after reaching 300m. They never did it. Investigators (not Kremlin) also supposed that it was technical issue and/or human error.

It looks that the key information is climb rate from airport radar data. If they found that climb rate was very low, they could exclude some reason, for example bomb.

Back door:
URSS 250230Z 06004MPS 9999 BKN033 OVC083 05/01 Q1019 R06/090070 R02/090070 NOSIG
RMK R02/05004MPS MT OBSC QFE763


Decoded:
Location...........: URSS
Day of month.......: 25
Time...............: 02:30 UTC
Wind...............: true direction = 060 degrees; speed = 4 m/s
Visibility.........: 10 km or more
Cloud coverage.....: broken (5 to 7 oktas) at 3300 feet above aerodrome level
Cloud coverage.....: overcast (8 oktas) at 8300 feet above aerodrome level
Temperature........: 05 degrees Celsius
Dewpoint...........: 01 degrees Celsius
QNH (msl pressure).: 1019 hPa
Next 2 hours.......: no significant changes

[PashaF]

Whether it turns out to have any relevance or not, neither we nor you have any knowledge regarding what cargo may or may not have been on board.

Well, official press-release already published stating that is was no military cargo on board. They said it was only luggage plus 150 kg of medical supply and food.

[paperHanger]

The "beach camera" pictures, I spent some time looking at google maps, the Imray nautical charts etc and I am fairly confident that the low green light shown on the video is at the end of the harbour wall on the Sochi Yacht Club, it is the only likely candidate. If you plot a line roughly looking up the beach at the angle shown in the video, then the light that appears in the sky briefly is in the correct alignment for the light on the harbour wall at the Port Of Sochi, which is elevated on a tower. The shape of the light and the distinct on/off is consistent with a nautical light rather than an explosion.

[flyallnite]

Pure speculation on my part: Possible misuse or lack of use of the engine anti icing systems? Potential freezing of tat probes in the engine inlets, leading to erroneous thrust settings and then resulting confusion. Might explain the lack of climb, as the crew may have reduced thrust to prevent an indicated overboost, which then led to an unrecoverable stall...

[lomapaseo]

From historical perspectives Air Florida and the DC8 at Gander come to mind.

One can take off but not climb.

I'm not sure if it matches the other cold weather event of Continental at Denver. I'm quite sure that the TU has lots of experience in cold weather but perhaps some history might pop up on this board

Does it have slats for takeoff to increase its tolerance to wing icing?? or does the weather at Sochi preclude any discussion in this?

[silverstrata]

Not the case at all, the (Tu-154) dutch roll caused by an engineer mis-connecting one of the elements of the automatic on-board flight control system to the power supply.


Not quite the full story. I flew with a captain who had 10,000 hours on Tu-154s. Although he liked the tough airframe, it required yaw-dampers, pitch-dampers, and roll-dampers to keep it flying (a by-product of anhedral and other idiosyncratic designs). They had to practice damper off flying in the real aircraft, and he said it was utterly uncontrolable. You might get away with a visual, but could not follow an ILS.

In fact, Tu-154 damper off flying is somewhat reminiscent of that Liveleak video in comment #68. Great video, I have to say. Would hate to think what that looked and felt like, in the cockpit ! Good airmanship to fly it around a bit, and get a feel of the instability, before landing.

[EDLB]

Operation near freezing temps is not unknown for ru operators. So I would assume a more sudden event. With the relative light TOW they should be able to climb on two engines.

[unworry]

@paperHanger my nephew (also a pilot, russian-born wife) is very familiar with the area and concurs with your suspicion.

[porterhouse]

From historical perspectives Air Florida
Weather then was about -4 C with moderate snowing. Here in Sochi it was +8 C at takeoff, no precipitation at all, not very comparable weather scenarios.

One can take off but not climb.
Actually - cold temperature, by itself, helps with both - takeoff and climbing.

[vovachan]

The media found another witness who was allegedly out on a boat and described the plane descending as if trying a water landing. The forward speed was slow and it was in an "unnatural" nose up position. It hit tail first which broke off and quickly sank.

[Oakape]

Deep stall perhaps?

[paperHanger]

@unworry ... also, the crash site is South-East of Sochi ... the webcam footage, if it is from Sochi Beach, is looking North West ... 180 degrees away from the crash site ..

[paperHanger]

@vovachan if it had come in slow and nose up, it is unlikey to have broken up ... the TU154 is very solid bit of kit, a slow water landing would have been very survivable, at least a few passengers would have managed to get lifejackets on even if the tail broke off, in front of the rear bulkhead. The fact that no one survived and the authorities insist no one had a life jacket deployed would suggest it either broke up mid air, or entered the water at some reasonably high velocity.

[archae86]

Perhaps you forget AF447. That hit the water at a forward speed of 107 knots and nose-up pitch of 16.2 degrees. It was not "very survivable". Had we seen it, I think we'd have thought it to have a low forward speed and to be in an unnatural nose up position.

IF the eyewitness report is a cousin of the truth, I think Oakape's suggestion of deep stall has merit. Of course eyewitness reports may be correct, far off the mark, or anywhere between

[tlk]

Investigators (not Kremlin)
Not sure that in the realities of present-day Russia it's practical to separate the two. Thankfully tho it's hard to control all info these days from one central source of political power. Even it being the Kremlin.
Anyway thank you for you concise and clear postings in this thread.

BTW it's reported that the BLACK BOX IS FOUND. ????: ???????????? - ????????: ????????? ?????? ???? ??-154 ? ???? ???? ???????? (http://tass.ru/proisshestviya/3908777) (in Russian)
A source told TASS state news agency that 1 of the flight recorders has been located, yet to be lifted. It doesn't specify which one it is, and says it's currently unknown how badly it was damaged. However it does state that it was found "under the plane's cockpit" adding that the other *two* are believed to be in the tail part.

[Machinbird]

Lack of climb could be an instrumentation problem.
Does anyone know if this was a 'steam gauge' type aircraft?
Were the vertical references actual spinning gyros?

[Gauges and Dials]

Perhaps you forget AF447. That hit the water at a forward speed of 107 knots and nose-up pitch of 16.2 degrees.

Vertical speed makes a world of difference.

[captain1013]

Were the vertical references actual spinning gyros?
No, radar readings from a ground station.

[scr1]

Flight data recorder has been recovered

Russian plane crash: First black box located in the sea - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38441903)

[Karel_x]

Deep stall perhaps?

It looks like it. And reason? Too early flaps retraction? In the same time, the HS have to be set into flight position. Failure, not in auto position? TOW and CG near limits?

[AN2 Driver]

One bit I have been musing about is the time of the accident, 0540 in the morning after they already had done a night flight from Moscow. Not the best for fatigue.

Karel, if anything is not set as required on the TU before take off, it will give you a config warning and the take off light won't go out. I'd be very surprised if the stab had not been set as required, of course if that was true, then we'd have a major suspect.

CG is regulated via fuel in the TU, so it should not have been a problem, but of course, who knows.

[HeartyMeatballs]

CAnt the TU154 make it Moscow to Syria non stop? It seems with such a light load a refuelling stop is a bit pointless. Could it perhaps have picked up some cargo in Sochi?

[andrasz]

TASS reporting this morning quoting unnamed sorces (quoted by another source, for all that's worth..) that the FDR has been found, and that the most favored theory at present is 'engines ingested some foreign objects causing damage'. Multiple birdstrike... ?

[CDG1]

Tu-154 plane’s flight data recorder recovered from water
The black box will soon be taken to Moscow for deciphering, according to the Russian Defense Ministry
© Artur Lebedev/TASS

MOSCOW, December 27. /TASS/. The flight data recorder of the Tu-154 plane of the Russian Defense Ministry that crashed in the Black Sea on Sunday has been pulled from the water, a law enforcement source told TASS. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed later that the black box had been recovered from the water.

"The parameter flight data recorder has been recovered from the water. The plane with the black box will soon depart from Sochi to Moscow where it will be deciphered by specialists of the Defense Ministry," the source said.

-50%
TASS: World - Tu-154 plane?s flight data recorder recovered from water (http://tass.com/world/922656)

[Heathrow Harry]

BBC radio reporting all Tu-154 flights suspended until further notice..........

[ATC Watcher]

Multiple birdstrike... ?

At night ? maybe bats ..:hmm:

[Karel_x]

Yes, it is possible. Astronomers often observes migration birds at night pictures. TU5 has 3 engines and a loss of one of them should not be fatal. Uncontained failure? Multiple engine failure?

[16024]

Geese are well known to fly at night. And seldom alone. Don't know if Sochi is far enough south for this to be likely this time of year. We'll soon know.
As regards the discussion about refuelling, it may make sense to round-trip it with cheap, readily available Russian fuel if uploading in Syria might be a lottery.
Again, not saying this is the case.

[Chronus]

Bird strike ?

ATC `s remark was in the classic McEnroe style of "man you cannot be serious". To add to which mine would have been, as it was not Halloween witches riding on broomsticks may also be crossed off the list of probable cause.

[N707ZS]

Wonder if de-icing was needed and not done?

[MrSnuggles]

About de-icing...

Sochi is a resort city, on approximately the same latitude as Rome. Palm trees grow there. This should give you an idea about the climate.

ETA: Yes, they had the Winter Olympics. Speaks more of corruption than appropriate climate imho.

[Dubaian]

Mr Snuggles it's also where they held the last Winter Olympics. Typical Central Continental climate - hot summers and cold winters.

[N707ZS]

Post 17 has temperature +8 so forget that.

[SLFandProud]

Sochi is a resort city, on approximately the same latitude as Rome. Palm trees grow there. This should give you an idea about the climate.

ETA: Yes, they had the Winter Olympics. Speaks more of corruption than appropriate climate imho.

I live in Bucharest, other side of the Black Sea and only a little bit further north than Sochi. It's been a remarkably mild winter so far, very little precipitation (a day or two of snow at most that I recall), low single digits in the day and low (or should I say high?!) negative single digits at night right now. I fly out of Otopeni on average at least once a week if not twice and I don't remember seeing the deicers out yet this year.

(By contrast, two years ago it was around -15/-20 by mid December, which is if anything more normal. Last year's December was also mild but we paid for it with blizzards in an absolutely horrible freezing January and a somewhat rubbish spring...)



On the last point, I'm sure you'll not be surprised to learn that the weather at sea level and the weather a few thousand feet up a mountain can be somewhat different. Many of my friends are spending this time of year skiing in the Carpathians despite the mild winter down on the ground.

[tlk]

BBC radio reporting all Tu-154 flights suspended until further notice..........
There are about 50 or so in operation, all by various gov agencies I think. Civ fleet must have been retired for some years by now. So on its own it's a non-issue.

[Murty]

Im wondering why they stopped in Sochi?

I looked up the flight plan yesterday (forgot to copy will check tomorrow)its intended routing was in fact NOT a southerly route.
It was due to route East to avoid Georgian FIR-Azerbaijan FIR before heading south into Iran FIR then west into Iraq FIR finaly into Syrian FIR.
It was efectively due to fly east to route joining from the southerly position of the earlier plotted FR24 example.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ra-85041#bef9574

Another TU-154 followed the sameroute dep URSS at 1500ish UTC.
RA-85072 was due to depart at 2310UTC but did not depart till after 0220UTC

[AAKEE]

The refueling was planned for Mozdok but was changed to Sochi due to bad Wx at Mozdok.
https://sputniknews.com/russia/201612251048988603-investigation-plane-not-terror-attack/

[Heathrow Harry]

Happened very quickly after takeoff - unlikely to have been a party - possible engine failure, decided to turnbachk and stalled it.............

[PilotsResearch]

Why would they need to refuel at Mozdok, only 80 minutes or so out of Moscow?

[andrasz]

CG is regulated via fuel in the TU, so it should not have been a problem...


No it is not. Back in a previous era I used to do load control on TU5s, I can say with 100% certainty. No Soviet era aircraft had any active fuel trimming system, the first a/c I'm aware of to have had one was the 310-300.

[HarryMann]

@vovachan if it had come in slow and nose up, it is unlikey to have broken up ... the TU154 is very solid bit of kit, a slow water landing would have been very survivable, at least a few passengers would have managed to get lifejackets on even if the tail broke off, in front of the rear bulkhead. The fact that no one survived and the authorities insist no one had a life jacket deployed would suggest it either broke up mid air, or entered the water at some reasonably high velocity.

If it's a solid bit if kit then why would it break up in the air ?
It didn't of course !

[A_Van]

Well known that very often a catastrophe happens when several negative factors occur together. Here, very likely the TOW was at the limit (this will be known soon), also no visibility at night after passing the shoreline. The crew did not flow for a long time before this second leg (Moscow - Sochi is just some 2+ hrs) but did not sleep the whole night (it was 5+ a.m). The plane reportedly started a prescribed right U-turn (likely intensive with significant roll). If at that moment anything happens (e.g malfunction of one of the engines) it may pose a difficult task to the crew to be solved almost instantly.

[mikeygd]

Why would they need to refuel at Mozdok, only 80 minutes or so out of Moscow?

I assume to avoid needing to refuel in Syria. Supplies there are probably all shipped from Russia, so it makes no sense for them to upload fuel in Syria when they could stop before leaving Russia to tanker their own fuel.

[andrasz]

The fireball from the video (reliable?)
Several posters above confrmed that the video shows the flare of a lighthouse, NOT anything related to the aircraft.

Same source which peviously suggested FOD in engines now suggests fuel pump failure, so we may probably discount both as pure speculation.

[16024]

Originally Posted by PilotsResearch
Why would they need to refuel at Mozdok, only 80 minutes or so out of Moscow?

It was only one page back!


As regards the discussion about refuelling, it may make sense to round-trip it with cheap, readily available Russian fuel if uploading in Syria might be a lottery.

[Kulverstukas]

https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/41340/33837834.108/0_174b2d_d755b6b8_orig

[Kulverstukas]

— ...Speed 300... (illegibly.)

— (illegibly.)

— Gears up, Cpt*.

— (illegibly.)

— Oh, ****!

(warning sound. stall warning?)

— The flaps, bitch! WTF?!

— Altimeter!

— We... (are finished? illegibly.)

(Ground warning.)

— (illegibly.)

— Cpt, we're falling!

* literally "Gears taken, commander"

[JCviggen]

So they (FO) pulled the wrong lever and stalled it into the drink is the picture being painted?

[enola-gay]

This would explain the Russian assertion of pilot error

[A_Van]

I wonder where the above script has come from? CVR is yet under the water or just pulled out of it and has not yet decoded by "Lubertsy".

[Kulverstukas]

First recorder rescued was a CVR.

hmPSrdzpOUE

0:39

- It's the sound one...
- It's CVR. Mars-BM

[Chronus]

CVR

I can well understand popping the cover off, first thing to leak out would be water. But am amazed at the speed with which it seems to have been followed by the transcript.

[archae86]

- It's the sound one...
- It's CVR. Mars-BM
Indeed--and it uses magnetic tape, not solid state storage.

[Chopped]

Mr Snuggles it's also where they held the last Winter Olympics. Typical Central Continental climate - hot summers and cold winters.
Yes, the last Winter Olympics were in Sochi. But before you take this as a judge of weather: It was 21C in the park (near Adler airport) in mid-February during the Games.
People were wearing shorts & flip-flops, even at the skiing events in the mountains. That weather was not a freak heatwave: a friend of mine worked there for 7 weeks and it didn't get close to freezing in all that time.

[WHBM]

BEA Trident at Staines 1972 ? Not identical but sounds like common aspects.

[jaytee54]

Kulverstukas,
Are you saying that when the Captain asked for 'gear up' the FO selected the flap up (all the way) instead? :{

[barry lloyd]

The circled right-hand lever is marked шасси (undercarriage)
The circled left-hand lever is marked ЗАКРЫЛКИ (flaps)

[up_down_n_out]

The " Careless" has one of the highest power to weight ratios of any civilian aircraft.
They make a 320 feel like a slug hence the high fuel consumption/relative inefficiencies.

It was known for being one of the fastest flying a/c out there, as well as t/o / rotate, being a blast.
I always looked forward to flying one, because it felt like a mad howling dragster.

Just see how they flew Alrosa flight 514 back out of that short disused military a/f in the Taiga, then it was flying again in 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XUgKLIG_5M

The likelihood of it being overweight is about zero here, so the finger surely has to be pointed to some sort of nasty error >stall scenario.

[noflynomore]

Sadly the historical data for accidents moments after take off, especially over water and in the dark, are almost invariably pilot error - usually somatosogravic illusion or similar.
It all seems eerily similar to so many other "inexplicable" accidents in identical circumstances.

[SquintyMagoo]

up down n out:

In your linked video there appears to be a "cover" over the center engine. What's that about?

[Sunamer]

The " Careless" has one of the highest power to weight ratios of any civilian aircraft.

thrust to weight ratio for MTOW (assuming max thrust at sea level):
A320 = 0.25 - 0.31
Tu154B2 = 0.27
Tu154M = 0.31
B737-400 = 0.31
B737-300 = 0.32
B737-700 = 0.27 - 0.34
B757-300 of 0.31
B767-300 has 0.27 - 0.35

Not sure about "one of the highest" claim... Seems like those numbers do not support that.
:}

[Karel_x]

The picture doesn't look like the panel of crushed plane. It is completely intact.
The photo is taken from this theoretical article:
http://denokan.livejournal.com/167530.html
The possibility of human errors is described in this article. The photo is taken inside parking plane, I suppose.

[up_down_n_out]

Not sure about "one of the highest" claim... Seems like those numbers do not support that.

Should have said "was".
Engine technology of course has moved on for priorities on economy.

If you compare a modern later generation 737 with 2 x CFM / P & W 20,000-25,000 lbf,-

with this thirsty heavyweight museum piece from 1972 - using 3 x 20-23,000 lbf, you will find the A320 & 737 families empty are 10-15T lighter & use 1/3 less fuel.

[HarryMann]

BEA Trident at Staines 1972 ? Not identical but sounds like common aspects.

Indeed... very similar (that was premature slats in after a call for a flap setting reduction)

It was also a crowded cockpit and a distracted pilot possibly in the throes of a heart attack.

[CDG1]

TASS

Source says military Tu-154 plane crashed at 510 kilometers per hour
A source close to the investigation has told TASS the plane’s pitch angle was too high and it was being rocked from side to side


MOSCOW, December 27. /TASS/. The Russian Defense Ministry’s Tupolev-154 plane that crashed into the Black Sea on December 25 was trying to make a right turn seconds before the disaster. It was flying at a speed of 500 kilometers per hour with its nose high up, a source in the law enforcement has told TASS.

"The crash occurred while the pilots were retracting spoilers (when extracted the spoilers increase the plane’s airlift - TASS). For yet to be established reasons the plane’s pitch angle was too great. Apparently the plane deviated from its designated path while making a right turn. As a result it flew into the water at a speed of about 510 kilometers per hour," the source said.

...
Read more here:
TASS: World - Source says military Tu-154 plane crashed at 510 kilometers per hour (http://tass.com/world/922808)

[CDG1]

Moscow says it is inappropriate to speculate on Tu-154 crash theories until probe is over

It is absolutely inappropriate to raise any statements or political assessments at this stage, Zakharova stated

MOSCOW, December 24. /TASS/. It is inappropriate to speculate on what might have caused the crash of the Russian Tu-154 in the Black Sea until the investigation is over, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Tuesday.

"Before commenting, it’s better to wait for what experts say," she said. "Let us leave it [speculations on the crash theories, including a terrorist act - TASS] on the conscience of those who thinks they have the right to speak on that topic."

-50%
More:
TASS: Russian Politics & Diplomacy - Moscow says it is inappropriate to speculate on Tu-154 crash theories until probe is over (http://tass.com/politics/922804)

[AN2 Driver]

Kulverstukas,

how do you rate the source of this?

Yes, retracting the flaps will cause loss of lift but it should not be fatal. Also I have doubts in terms of the trajectory. The gear goes up very early, usually moments after unstick, if the flaps had been retracted at that point, I doubt they would have made the turn.

[HarryMann]

thrust to weight ratio for MTOW (assuming max thrust at sea level):
A320 = 0.25 - 0.31
Tu154B2 = 0.27
Tu154M = 0.31
B737-400 = 0.31
B737-300 = 0.32
B737-700 = 0.27 - 0.34
B757-300 of 0.31
B767-300 has 0.27 - 0.35

Not sure about "one of the highest" claim... Seems like those numbers do not support that.
:}

Yes but with one engine out it would easily be the highest !!

[BEagle]

Pilots who are reading this thread will know that a twin-engine airliner requires a higher thrust-to-weight ratio than airliners with a larger number of engines, to cater for engine failure during take-off and the need to clear screen height. Hence the rather pedestrian climb rate of the early A340 compared with the largely similar A330.

There were some exceptions, such as the VC10, which the ARB required to be able to continue climb after losing 2 engines on the same side - however, if the 3-engined Tu154 has about the same thrust-to-weight ratio as an A320, then that is probably higher than regulations strictly require.

News of the Solchi disaster seems to be slipped off the front pages of Western rags, which seem to be more concerned with the deaths of Parfitt, Michael, Fisher and Adams than 92 innocent Russians...:ugh:

Were those 'official' CVR transcripts? If so, from what source?

[Karel_x]

CVR transcript can be authentic, but a time stamping is missing. Flaps problem may arise some 1-2 min later after gears up.

[HarryMann]

One does wonder about the stages of flap raising... and why any asymmetry might have crept in. If there's a suggestion of dutch roll or wing rocking this might imply flight regime near or above the stall incidence (for the configuration)

[gonebutnotforgotten]

IF this is what happened it is indeed very similar to the PI accident. All the more sad therefore that those old lessons weren't learned. Within a few weeks of that crash we all we went back to the sim for the irreverently titled 'Sam Key Memorial Exercise'. The 'droop' (leading edge flap, no slot) was raised about 40 knots too soon, all hell broke loose, and order was immediately restored by reselecting the droop down. All a bit of a non event... once one knew what to do. The general rule of 'if something horrid happens, undo the last action' works even if you don't understand exactly what's going on and ought to be more generally known.

[Kulverstukas]

@AN2 et al

Untill now, no "source" can be accounted as reliable or genuine. All "facts" discussed in this thread falls exactly into "rumours" part of it's name.

[AN2 Driver]

Thanks Kulverstukas.

That is what I thought.

At least by now they appear to have both recorders. I guess only when we get a proper release by the experts we can start to make some sense in this. The stuff written in the papers appears to be mostly w.a.g's. One sais 500 km/h, the other 300, e.t.c. this is unreliable to the max.

I can imagine a flaps error, but it does not come together with the flight path. Then again, the flight path is wrong for the SID, and so on. So we'll have to wait.

[JCviggen]

Being reported earlier today (Russian media - RBC) that there was a fault with the flaps, which should have been manageable in theory as a "known" issue, but not handled correctly by the crew leading to a stall.

[Jump Complete]

BBC quoting 'Pro Kremlin Website' stating 'Faulty Wing Flaps' to blame and showing the CVR transcript posted hear earlier.

Russia plane crash: Flight recorder 'reveals faulty wing flaps to blame' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38449058)

[Rockhound]

According to the BBC, the CVR revealed there was a problem operating the flaps, resulting in loss of control.

[danum]

harryman
"Indeed... very similar (that was premature slats in after a call for a flap setting reduction)"wrong! the captain called for "gear up" the co pilot pulled the wrong lever.later the levers were modified to stop that happening again

[DaveReidUK]

According to the BBC, the CVR revealed there was a problem operating the flaps, resulting in loss of control.

I still wouldn't be surprised if "flaps" is a mistranslation and turned out to be slats.

[paperHanger]

The BBC article is suggesting that the flaps did not retract in sync .. that "they are not moving together" ... although quite how they got to that conclusion from the CVR is not clear ...

As normal practice is to retract in stages, I would have thought the imbalance would have become obvious before it became fatal, by the time you have a bootfull of rudder and the stick hard over, you would not be calling for another stage of flap retraction, you'd be thinking "hmm, that does not seem to have gone well" ...

[silverstrata]

Sounds a bit like flap retraction instead of gear retraction, with predictable consequences.

There was a Io-co in the UK that had the same problem. The standard accelleration call was "FLAPS UP SPEED". A procedure that was utterly crasy, and I told them so. Well, after two aircraft staggered away with a lack of flaps at very low speed, the accelleration call was finally changed.

Basic rule of aviation .... if it can happen, it will happen. And you can bet your bottom dollar it will happen on the fourth flight at 03:00, when everyone is dogtired and half asleep. So try and make your procedures as buIIet-proof as possible. Unfortunately, some of these new-entrant airlines were run by beginners, who were always reinventing a very old wheel.

[Xeque]

Asymmetric flap?

[5 APUs captain]

From russian "pprune" (forumavia.ru):
If the takeoff to be completed with flaps28 - they should be retracted with 2 steps: speed 300 km/h - set flaps15, after acceleration to 330 km/h - set flaps up.
According info leaks somebody in the cockpit told : "speed 300.... f*ck, flaps!!! "
That's why there is a version that one of pilots selected flaps from 28 to 0 inadvertently.

[Mad (Flt) Scientist]

Karel_X
CVR transcript can be authentic, but a time stamping is missing. Flaps problem may arise some 1-2 min later after gears up.

IF ... big if ... the CVR is authentic, then unless edited it appears to contain no command to move the 'flaps'. So either it's all continuous, and the gear statement is associated to the 'flaps', or a 'flaps' problem occurred without them being commanded. The latter sounds unlikelier.

[andrasz]

The BBC report looks credible and clearly refers to the FDR readout (NOT CVR), and clearly mentions "flaps not movng together". Sounds like flaps assymetry induced LOC.

[BEagle]

Surely flap asymmetry would simply cause a flap lock-out?

It certainly sounds like a configuration error caused the accident, whether as the result of system failure or aircrew mis-selection. How are the slats and flaps 'automatically' interconnected? Are the slats still extended when the flaps move from 28° when 15° flap is selected?

[gums]

Flap asymmetry can be a very big problem.

Recall the UA DC-10 at Chicago when significant items were damaged when the engine came off the pylon. And then there's the one I had in a Viper long ago.

http://i120.photobucket.com/albums/o196/gatlingums/rightwing.jpg

In my case, the FBW flight controls helped me a lot! The assymetry brake sensor was outboard, and my failure was with the connection to the flap drive motor in the fuselage. The "brake" couldn't work because the flap was not connected to any control mechanism. Duh.

My understanding of the flap control surfaces on this plane is that they are independent from side-to-side. So as with my "problem", one side could fail and the other worked per normal.

At slow speed and with assymetrical flaps you could have a serious inpact on total lift for the plane and also have roll problems due to more lift on one wing than the other. My problem happened after I was above the minimum control speed so I mainly had a lot of drag and used all but 1 pound of stick authority to keep control( according to data recorder we had on early Vipers).

Unless those guys pushed forward right away and reduced AoA/pitch to gain speed, they were doomed.

[H Peacock]

I don't think it will take them long to confirm if it was either assymetric slat/flap or a configuration stall. I don't buy the smooth sea, dark night, high acceleration somatogravic illusion.

[Kulverstukas]

The BBC report looks credible

No it's not

and clearly refers to the FDR readout (NOT CVR)

No CVR or FDR readout was officially announced yet. The BBC "report" is a mixed reprint of Life.ru and other Russian media and web forums, based on "expert" interviews, "source leaks" and wild guesses.

[Kulverstukas]

As far as I can filter info from noise, it was stall, caused by takeoff misconfiguration, but what was a source of it still unclear.

[Kulverstukas]

Wing:

http://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/945xH/media/img/2/88/754829172676882.jpg

FDR

http://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/945xH/media/img/9/88/754829246624889.jpg

Engine

http://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/945xH/media/img/4/74/754829472179744.jpg

[Kulverstukas]

Main gear

http://aviaforum.ru/attachments/screenshot_2016-12-28-21-02-25-png.549329/

[PJ2]

Kulverstukas, do you know if this FDR's medium is digital (chips), optical or tape?

[16024]

Quote:
The BBC report looks credible

No it's not


...and repeat...

[Hotel Tango]

The question is who or what is the BBC's source? From previous experiences with accident reporting by the BBC I would wait for an official announcement by the authorities!

[Kulverstukas]

Tape

http://www.reaa.ru/yabbfilesA/Attachments/IMG_6289.jpg

CVR MARS-BM 70A-11 left, FDR MLP-14-5 right

[Hotel Tango]

BBC headline:

The main flight recorder from the Russian jet that crashed into the Black Sea on Sunday has revealed that faulty flaps were to blame, Russian media say.

So, the BBC are, by their own admission, only reporting what the Russian media has reported. Therefore, no credibility whatsoever!

[PJ2]

Kulverstukas, many thanks!

One more item if I may - do we know what parameters and sample rates there are with this kind of an installation? I'm not expecting thousands of parameters as may be available on modern transports, but I'm wondering if it is more than we might see on B737-200/300/400 types, for example, (~80 to 250 parameters depending on data frame and legal requirements).

[Kulverstukas]

http://lms.aeroflot.ru/data/tu_154_systems/tm14.pdf

48 analog channels and 32 single events channels. 3 analog channels are 8Hz, rest are 2Hz.

[silverstrata]

Thanks, Kulverstukas.

I see the flaps are fully retracted on that wing, which cannot happen post the accident (presuming screw-jacks, like all other aircraft). So it is looking like early an inadvertent flap retract could be the problem.

[PJ2]

:ok:, again, many thanks!

silverstrata, I noticed too, that they were retracted but that in itself is not, for the moment, evidence of anything other than "retracted flaps".

Collaborating evidence would be time-stamped slat/flap position, (both left & right, which may not be available parameters), airspeed, pitch, AoA & correlated CVR recording.

[Kulverstukas]

I see the flaps are fully retracted on that wing, which cannot happen post the accident (presuming screw-jacks, like all other aircraft).

http://www.mskavia.ru/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/56355.jpg

[Chronus]

Kulverstukas do you have any information on the leading edge slats, such as flight deck location in relation to gear, flap and minimum speed for retraction. Any cockpit warnings/alerts for t/o without deployment. Are they linked to flap settings.

[Kulverstukas]

Any cockpit warnings/alerts for t/o without deployment.

NOT T/O READY warning light and sound.

http://i053.radikal.ru/1612/23/9dc25e8a44a0.jpg

[Chronus]

According to foreign news sources (interfax),combination of technical malfunction with pilot error led to inadequate lift to maintain flight is reported as the cause.

[silverstrata]

silverstrata, I noticed (that flaps) were retracted but that in itself is not evidence of anything other than "retracted flaps".


Not quite. On the CVR we have a "speed" call, and then a surprised exclamation about "flaps". I would say that is prima face evidence that there was something unusual or unexpected about the flaps. One possible unexpected flap condition is the flaps being retracted early, with insufficient speed. Another could be asymmetry, but most aircraft will lock automatically before an asymmetry develops.

Unexpected early flap retraction is the front runner, in my opinion. And it happens. As I relate above, there was a UK Io-co who had an acceleration call of "flaps up speed", which predictably resulted in a couple of inadvertent early flap retracts.

Thanks for the screw-jack image, Kulverstukas - that is an impressive array of hanging ironmongery. A most informative collection of pictures.

[aerobat77]

in my opinion the accidental flap instead of gear retraction alone does not explain it.

on the one hand it should be, even when it is of course bad airmanship and a dangerous situation , finally manageable by an experienced crew since the flaps and slats retract slowly while the reduced drag lets the plane acclerate quickly to its minimum clean speed. keep the nose slightly below stall angle, let the speed build up and then start to climb away. there were no obstacles ahead because they immediately were above the sea so no need to build up altitude at this moment .

on the other hand - even when not manageable - the "gear up" command comes shortly after liftoff and when the pilot instead of the gear lever operated the flap lever to "0" flaps resulting in a stall and crash it would have occoured in very close vivinity of the runway. i do not see a scenario where the plane struggels several miles out to the sea and even makes an u turn due to early flap retraction.

[cappt]

Excactly my experience and thoughts as well.
There has to be more or this accident would be off the end of the runway.

[Kulverstukas]

http://s9.stc.all.kpcdn.net/share/i/4/1225946/wx1080.jpg

[EDLB]

Even if the mods like to pull my comments. The two main gear pictures indicate that the main gear was retracted, especial the bent oleo on the first picture. It got a lot of load on impact, but asymmetrical as the oleos are not bent the same. The impact speed was quite high and the damaged oleos show that the impact was not flat but at a relative high angle of attack.

[FlightlessParrot]

I have a question.

Initially, it was reported that the FDR was recovered.

Then there were reports purporting to be flight deck conversations.

Only after the first of these appeared was it announced that a second recorder was even located.

Were the initial reports mistaken, and it was actually the CVR that was recovered first, or are all the flight deck transcripts actually fake news amplified by the internet echo chamber?

[Prada]

On the picture that Kulverstukas posted, there is a righthand maingear. It is interesting that first pair of wheels are torn off. Quite a force. Normally first pair of wheels hit the ground first, as gear is angled and they are lowest. Could these missing wheels indicate, that gear was not retracted, when plane hit water? First pair of wheels hit water, probably a wave, which at that speed is as hard as a concrete wall.
But then again, hydrocylinder is extended and bent, which means that gear was retracted during impact.
Here is a short video about how Tu-154 gear works:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhupJGUZYLQ

[Anvaldra]

From russian "pprune" (forumavia.ru):
If the takeoff to be completed with flaps28 - they should be retracted with 2 steps: speed 300 km/h - set flaps15, after acceleration to 330 km/h - set flaps up.
According info leaks somebody in the cockpit told : "speed 300.... f*ck, flaps!!! "
That's why there is a version that one of pilots selected flaps from 28 to 0 inadvertently.
That's incorrect data. According Tu154 SOP in case of T/O with flaps 28:
- configuration change 28-15 - at speed 330-340 km/h
- from 15 to clean wing - at not less than 350 km/h
- 380-400 km/h (depending on weight) must be provided at the end of transition
So if they had 300 with clean wing.....

[aussiepax]

Are these data recalculated from Knots, or is the manual and SOP for Europe in SI units ?

[Anvaldra]

It's actual data from SOP without any cut. I think it's hardly to find TU154B SOP in other language version than Russian

[Kulverstukas]

All USSR technical data is in metric units.

[TonyGosling]

Looking into this one
Sergey Bainetov, the Russian Air Force's deputy head of flight safety
Minister of Transport, Maxim Sokolov

Latest press conference reports
https://sputniknews.com/trend/tu_154_search_rescue_operation/

Also - sorry, but all talk of flaps may be premature - a single 'leak' and 'assumptions' in an echo chamber vacuum?
The Russian news network Life.ru quoted a source close to the investigation as saying that the final words uttered by the Tu-154's pilot indicated a possible flap fault.
www.Life.ru referred to the final recording of the cockpit before the crash, in which the pilot can allegedly be heard yelling "the flaps, damn it!" which was followed by "commander, we're going down." This has yet to be officially confirmed. Life.ru also quoted Russian aviation expert Viktor Zabolotsky as saying that flaps-related problems typically lead to a situation where pilots finally prove to be unable to take control of a plane while in the air.
He was echoed by another Russian aviation expert, Oleg Smirnov who told the online newspaper Vzglyad that his first assumptions regarding the Tu-154 crash were also related to a flap failure. The matter is that the plane disappeared just at the point during the flight when the wing flaps should have been retracted, according to Smirnov.
https://sputniknews.com/russia/201612281049056826-russia-plane-crash-cause/

[EDLB]

The following is all speculation.

If they had a slat and/or flap misconfiguration that resulted in a too high AOA they could wind up in a deep stall, those T-tails are prone to. It is mostly unrecoverable even at high altitudes.

http://www.aviationtoday.com/regions/ca/3011.html

Lots of folklore about T-tail deep stall to find on the web. The FDR data should give an answer about that armchair hypothesis soon.

[Kulverstukas]

Press-conference of Investigation Commitee

No explosion. Diversion or terrorism doesn't ruled out.

Time of flight ~ 70 sec, 10 sec of catastrophic situation.

Max height 250 m

Max speed 360-370 km/h

https://www.rt.com/news/372130-tu154-plane-crash-malfunction/

[Anvaldra]

Doubts. No correlation with CVR leak (if it truthful)

[aerobat77]

for some reason they were unable to build up speed and altitude , either the engines did not develop rated thrust or they had massive drag ( e.g spoilers , speedbrake extended by malfunction ) , maybe also severe overloading or extreme wrong cg . i believe they retracted flaps as quick as possible to reduce drag intentionally. i believe the word "flaps" was a last desperate call when the captain realized he is down to a speed where he will stall in clean config for sure to keep control for at least a ditching and not crashing into water. the next second they stalled and crashed. with a flap retraction right after liftoff and a resulting stall they would not make 70 seconds airborne time.

heavy cargo shifted back forcing such an aft cg he ran out of elevator authority ?

[BEagle]

aerobat77, have you ever flown a swept wing airliner?

If high devices are retracted below the +1G buffet boundary, there will only ever be one result.

[aerobat77]

and this result would have happen at the end of the runway in this scenario, not 70 seconds later...

[DaveReidUK]

We don't know that the aircraft was airborne for 70 seconds.

It's quite possible that the reported 70s flight duration was measured from the start of roll. In that case much, if not most, of it would be the takeoff ground run.

[H Peacock]

aerobat77, have you ever flown a swept wing airliner?

If high devices are retracted below the +1G buffet boundary, there will only ever be one result.

Are you eluding to a stall or a crash there Beagle? I'm sure a configuration stall or a 'premature high-lift device retraction' has occurred many times. If you're accelerating enough you may well get away with it, which is why they don't all end in a Staines-Trident type event. In addition, if you spot the 'inadvertent' retraction in time and reverse it, you'll fly away. Indeed G-ARPI was not doomed the instant the leading edge droops were retracted. Had the selection been reversed in time then they would have safely flown away.

And this result would happen at the end of the runway in this scenario, not 70 seconds later...

Well not necessarily. I'm not familiar with the TU154 slat/flap system, but certainly on other types with a combined slat/flap lever you may well be accelerating quickly enough not to stall until the slats start retracting. That will often be after the flaps have fully retracted and so perhaps 20 seconds or so after the initial slat/flap lever operation. If the call to raise the 'gear' was quite leisurely then an inadvertent slat/flap retraction could well result in an impact only a mile or so from the airfield.

[Mora34]

70 seconds airborne, max height of 250m and 10 seconds of catastrophic situation don't add up. If you deduce a questimated takeoff roll it makes much more sense.

[Anvaldra]

Let's make a simple calculation.
Rw length is 2890 meters - run +air distance =45 sec
Departure End Runway to coastline - apprx 1500 m = 18 sec
The debris were found 1500 meters from coastline = 10-12 sec more
Here are 70 sec

[kontrolor]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buQvb0CVuSA

take-off, gear, flaps..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qTiR7hraf0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkExVUJ0ciI

50 sec from rolling to gear retraction

[Mora34]

In the last video 60 seconds to 250 meters seems spot on. No flap retraction of course in neither video at that point. Surely there are many variables and different procedures. Equal or better TO performance than in the videos, if flap retraction speed was achieved.

[up_down_n_out]

Flap retraction on that Alrosa video is absolutely fine, - have flown on TU loads of times.
The a/c was probably MTOW too in view of the useage.
I think it's the last 2, flying, and have seen them sitting outside DME a few times on arrival.
(lots of Russian airports currently look like huge scrapyards).

About 40secs to rotate from standing (longer than a typical A320/737) flaps retract at about 70 secs....so what's the story?
Looks perfectly normal.

[DaveReidUK]

About 40secs to rotate from standing (longer than a typical A320/737) flaps retract at about 70 secs....so what's the story?
Looks perfectly normal.

As alluded to by a previous poster, Google "Papa India" if you want to understand why flaps aren't necessarily the whole story.

[up_down_n_out]

Anyone who is old enough would remember the media frenzy on that day.
The M4 wasn't that old either. :rolleyes:

Pretty well everyone knows what happened, but here an experienced crew, well maintained a/c low hrs, an excellent safety record, good weather etc....
Doesn't add up.

[Bgoldie]

Earlier post showed the " not ready for T/O" config warning.. Wondering, is it possible for it to test OK but not function properly? Never flown TU, so I'm not familiar with their procedures in that regard. Wondering perhaps if this aircraft might not have been configured in the first place... and perhaps the warning systems weren't functioning properly. It might explain the "flaps" comment previous pages if, say, they reached up to raise the gear and saw the flap lever incorrectly positioned....
I'm wondering if the flight profile here might be similar to the Northwest DC9 in Romulus Michigan...

[Pali]

70 seconds duration illustrated here.

1500m impact location from shore.

6.800m from the beginning of the runway requires average speed of 350kph to cover the distance in 70 seconds which means that a/c shouldn't have a problem with lack of speed considering zero velocity at the beginning of the take off run.

4300m from runway threshold would require app. 220kph average speed which seems much more applicable for the stall scenario. I conclude we talk about 70 seconds time when airborne excluding t/o run.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/xUKJEHl7arCAUVrxXGOhue1o7Oq6cwWLslbdiMFLXT_xXLgR4KvSr6hsJ3MH 2HRMLDl5Jm2g18HF5ivdYRpPZKtKMXx5x8XOzTHEnmJqq45i6KPDXWfokADg qgq5hHVDcAmUeSvof6WQ39MCs78u80M5QcHvbHjr-m-RxNJRIvE8cqvqTAD8GztK-MGvMu2a9wV-0zt5b-mbYAS6h-DhnVUGDJYTqk6TW67FBJ6r9tenj82Gu_xP8VVLcM3CYE77IlJ8XRfMLXRkSB aD35u9crZDBtJgefKWIRfvjpH0-YEW_jwy3zd-a22QVYHlz7YXZe0VC8WkU8XRK_RbN6zHxG_wUvG0mNrrQuRIT-6SP3JUwRqns1t8L9gkPfrCwt4jYXdIGG1uv5upycC6RXH1AgJg1VO3hJRTgl AtednA0KFpA72_F8t6KlNUln5iTMzQD2cPwTC5M4u_khMhPbYfbNIjdH-ILU5nvwIRDjT0rYcJrB7z8WWSvt6K3oIp9rkAerbSruGgO71Wu7XGu3Iq38Q TWzQ6OItpY8obcFobSdPoPmoUYYg9IGonhF6hct3uFuCmp9nN1VdyKSfdTo5 Thy9TAT0-MvB5THHWDSf25Xc7zDgYzV_N=w1046-h494-no

[Chris Scott]

Quote:
"4300m from runway threshold would require app. 220kph average speed which seems much more applicable for the stall scenario. I conclude we talk about 70 seconds time when airborne excluding t/o run."

Thanks Pali. But 220 kph is only about 110 kt (ground speed). Not sure that would be sustainable as an average from airborne, assuming little headwind. I don't know the Tu 154, but I imagine the Vr would have been considerably greater than that?

[Herod]

You're looking at a double failure there. Firstly the crew not configuring properly, then the warning not working. Unlikely IMO

[PashaF]

It is safe to assume that plane was not on the runway until the last meter. Also, military pilots are tend to execute much more aggressive take-off procedures by the way.

[Chris Scott]

Quote:
"Also, military pilots are tend to execute much more aggressive take-off procedures by the way."

Fascinating. Please tell us more...

[PashaF]

Well this is part of the training. When you operating in combat zone the normal procedure is to go as high as possible as fast as possible. Sure, you don't have the freedom to barrel roll the a-320 but the past always infect the present. Actually, the plane was heading to Syria, the exact place where you will have all chances to encounter some rather unpleasant manpad experience. I am kinda sure the captain mindset was already "switched" to Latakia take-off and landing.

[DaveReidUK]

Well this is part of the training. When you operating in combat zone the normal procedure is to go as high as possible as fast as possible.

But we already know that the maximum height achieved was only 250 m (830 ft).

[fepate]

Earlier post showed the " not ready for T/O" config warning.. Wondering, is it possible for it to test OK but not function properly? ... It might explain the "flaps" comment previous pages if, say, they reached up to raise the gear and saw the flap lever incorrectly positioned....
I'm wondering if the flight profile here might be similar to the Northwest DC9 in Romulus Michigan...
How about a slightly different situation where the flap lever was in the correct position but the flaps and slats did not deploy? Could the config warning miss a system failure like that?

[Pinkman]

You're looking at a double failure there. Firstly the crew not configuring properly, then the warning not working. Unlikely IMO

But that is exactly what happened in Madrid.. Spanair 5022

[Herod]

Pinkman. True, and I stand corrected. I'd forgotten about that one.

[gonebutnotforgotten]

But by all accounts the first signs of alarm from the crew came after the gear up call (if that's what it was), so unlikely they actually started in an unsafe config.

[Chris Scott]

I'm not promoting any theory whatsoever on this TU-154 accident but, FWIW, over the generations of jet airliners some T/O config warnings have been better than others - both in terms of the parameters covered and the method of detection. They all try to monitor the deployment of high-lift devices, of course.

On the B707 (first flight 1955), a first-generation jet, the system looked only at the position of the flight-crew's selector lever. The single lever controlled the trailing-edge flaps and the so-called leading-edge devices (Krueger flaps).

On the VC10 (first flight 1962), a second-generation jet which was outlived in service by the B707, the T/O config warning system used sensors on the leading-edge slats and the trailing-edge flaps themselves.

On early B747s (first-flight 1969) the extension of the leading-edge slats was not locally monitored by the T/O config warning, That, and crew error, led to a fatal accident in 1974:
https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19741120-0

None of the above systems monitored the degree of slat or flap extension, which on most aeroplanes is variable to suit the conditions.

Where does the TU-154 (first flight 1968) fit into this pattern of development?

[PashaF]

But we already know that the maximum height achieved was only 250 m (830 ft).
Maybe the pilot was dissatisfied with climb rate from the beginning?

[Anvaldra]

[QUOTE=Pali;9624629]70 seconds duration illustrated here.]


Pali, your investigation is wrong because of wrong runway. They departed runway 24

[Clandestino]

As usual, there is not much signal yet and quite a lot of noise. However, if we take the maximum altitude and speed figures quoted by RT as reliable, we can discount the possibility of too low config takeoff. If one tries that stunt, trouble begins as the aeroplane is leaving the ground effect, at about half the wingspan height. 250 m or about 800 ft is unobtainable, unless one is very lucky Argentinian flying OE registered Super80.

Everything I have flown in recent decade and half fits into "western built L2T" category and while procedures might be different from Russian military's, my lowest all engine acceleration height was 800 ft and if there is trouble during cleaning up, aeroplane would definitively climb above that before hell breaking loose.

If it were my due to place bet now, I'd put my money on the tired pilot monitoring pulling the flaps lever to zero instead of gear up.

Could someone with Tu-154 experience comment on how easy it is to move flaps lever all the way up and how difficult it is for the pilot in the LHS to reach the gear handle, пожалуйста?

[Passenger 389]

When you operating in combat zone the normal procedure is to go as high as possible as fast as possible. Though headed toward a war zone, surely the Cptn knew the takeoff was in a safe location and presumably would conduct the TO accordingly.

Especially when most of the pax were members of a choir, and some journalists.

Not infantry or paratroopers. Nor military brass to impress with a steep takeoff profile.

Just seems common sense.

However, I defer to those with the experience I lack.

[up_down_n_out]

I am kinda sure the captain mindset was already "switched" to Latakia take-off and landing.
Best keep the "kinda sure" opinions out of this.

It's nonsense, a TU154 doesn't light up like a bird and blast off on afterburners like stuff off an aircraft carrier.

Like it or not, it was full of a load of singers.
Nobody needing to be impressed at all in some ordinary airport in Sochi, just not expecting to be tipped suddenly into the sea & fed to the fish, a few days from the new year's parties.

Frankly, some of the speculation here has got out of hand.

[DaveReidUK]

Maybe the pilot was dissatisfied with climb rate from the beginning?

It might be helpful if you could remind us what point you are trying to make.

[Anvaldra]

As usual, there is not much signal yet and quite a lot of noise. However, if we take the maximum altitude and speed figures quoted by RT as reliable, we can discount the possibility of too low config takeoff. If one tries that stunt, trouble begins as the aeroplane is leaving the ground effect, at about half the wingspan height. 250 m or about 800 ft is unobtainable, unless one is very lucky Argentinian flying OE registered Super80.

Everything I have flown in recent decade and half fits into "western built L2T" category and while procedures might be different from Russian military's, my lowest all engine acceleration height was 800 ft and if there is trouble during cleaning up, aeroplane would definitively climb above that before hell breaking loose.

If it were my due to place bet now, I'd put my money on the tired pilot monitoring pulling the flaps lever to zero instead of gear up.

Could someone with Tu-154 experience comment on how easy it is to move flaps lever all the way up and how difficult it is for the pilot in the LHS to reach the gear handle, пожалуйста?
It is possible to reach gear handle from LHS if you have at least 6 ft half-rising ahead and to the right and unlock safety pin initially. Flaps lever is required to be clipped and held to move all the way up

[AN2 Driver]

Could someone with Tu-154 experience comment on how easy it is to move flaps lever all the way up and how difficult it is for the pilot in the LHS to reach the gear handle, пожалуйста?

The Flaps lever has a clip release on both sides, you need to press two bars in to move it at all. The Gear lever is ok to reach, a bit of a stretch from the LH seat, easy from the RH seat. It is conventional pull out and move, but also has a safety which needs releasing. Easy once you have the practice.

The very idea that the flaps were moved instead of the gear is quite unlikely. The gear goes up the moment positive rate is verified, so very early. Flaps retraction is later than 70 secs from brake release or even from lift off. In order to be safe, you need at least 400 km/h for clean config, something they never got close to.

The one pic shown earlier here does indeed suggest the flaps were up at impact, but apparently so was the gear (judging by another pic). So assuming for a moment that this CVR leak is true, it looks to me as if they completed gear retraction on schedule and then all of a sudden someone noted something they did not expect was happening to the flaps. In this situation, if the flaps retract prematurely, it would be very difficult to impossible to recover the plane, no height to give up to get the speed.

I am really curious to see the final results of that FDR and CVR, also it would be very interesting to see in what position the flaps lever was found if it was found at all.

Re Take off config warning, it is quite complex. I can't remember all of it, but a LOT of stuff has to be set correctly before the red light in front of the pilots goes out. Flaps, Slats and spoilers are certainly part of it.

[Pali]

Pali, your investigation is wrong because of wrong runway. They departed runway 24

I stand corrected, so here is the same situation for the runway 24:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/12Y2LMBUHN5UnzgaUw1_DsNDAtZdWJ09XgP00Wk0S1JtUL_iCnzUYmQrfAAy XMbZIgsYqGXu4aIY9JxkmFMhNtmRQTWoG1V5_j0LvSL7CA_G-B9pajyYxcSKrYiVUzZqxTDj3OAK55oSfahmpy_TUTnppDMHgp3nvTRHp9aUv 19dhN26wi-uWbapP8FZn3TsW63wg-PCblpCjeWwx9O-OsY9mHBSX0SALijPrMWsOssQgRxv9lGQuMd565RZLLsnPib7s5m5VLrntiGY J8FxyC7La0JcMDV0dkaT_67tEymbrT5YUh0G23NM6st0cm3xxbxZ3T8EDo8q MkmiT1KEVkBcxzjW7EweRmylFdkk5YLJeQHR4MBoKtmf5bRLSbc-l7uwrs_nIFTXqYk7MvxnKsawZuzAUyLBiFFhY1CDZArasE75wNwVZ0UCb7gl II0wZfFqvU4PEsEc5oIrGthz-MgQXdkvo18---Ia1wPwZFvf7sAxJ2MEoFFD8qvQFxnoqowx6iAkOZPFYQ5nSqCcCgiNMroPe_ alviEcL3twrcpAmw1CW9N7Nn2A8wu8phaGFSpoH2PDOVhdIPgBZANASbV-DPQTT75VWNWxVRDZCJmHxmF1_9Fm=w1076-h604-no

In this case the average speed for 70 seconds flight from the runway threshold or let's say distance of 3.600m doesn't make sense.

[Kulverstukas]

it would be very interesting to see in what position the flaps lever was found if it was found at all.

It was specially announced that cockpit panels were found and rescued, at the second day of the operation IIRC.

[Kulverstukas]

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2016/12/818338_6744ea7784032fd77ecefc938a98a02a.jpg

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2016/12/818339_bf90743eb53116477191c5fb717432a3.jpg

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2016/12/818340_b4f0812e75267de9d76ead630fb76e1f.jpg

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2016/12/818257_f732eddfa0c810fb897f6356a8bb5f10.png

[fox niner]

What happened to those fan blades?

[WHBM]

For those concerned that the wreckage in the first photo above is being dumped on the apron right in front of the airport terminal, the "Passenger Terminal" there is the Sochi cruise ship terminal, probably in winter shutdown.

[andrasz]

What happened to those fan blades?
That is a compressor disc, the damage is consistent with the engine producing power at a high setting at time of impact. The damage was caused by fragments of earlier stages and possibly other wreckage ingested by the still running engine.

[Hippy]

For those concerned that the wreckage in the first photo above is being dumped on the apron right in front of the airport terminal, the "Passenger Terminal" there is the Sochi cruise ship terminal, probably in winter shutdown.
Thanks for that, I was. :eek:

[lomapaseo]

That is a compressor disc, the damage is consistent with the engine producing power at a high setting at time of impact. The damage was caused by fragments of earlier stages and possibly other wreckage ingested by the still running engine.

Looks like a high transverse load across the non rotating structures sheared off the front and collapsed on the spinning blades. Seems to fit the early reports

[Chronus]

All speculation seems to be focused on crew error. Early reports have stated sequence as technical malfunction first and pilot error second.

[Markdp]

Nobody has answered my question

What is the take off speed for the TU-154? Please

[arizona]

It's not an easy question... Actually your question is impossible to answer. Why? Here is what Wiki has to say about take-off speed:
The takeoff speed required varies with air density, aircraft gross weight, lift coefficient, and aircraft configuration (flap or slat position, as applicable). Air density is affected by factors such as field elevation and air temperature. This relationship between temperature, altitude, and air density can be expressed as a density altitude, or the altitude in the International Standard Atmosphere at which the air density would be equal to the actual air density.

Operations with transport category aircraft employ the concept of the takeoff V-Speeds, V1, VR and V2. These speeds are determined not only by the above factors affecting takeoff performance, but also by the length and slope of the runway and any peculiar conditions, such as obstacles off the end of the runway. Below V1, in case of critical failures, the takeoff should be aborted; above V1 the pilot continues the takeoff and returns for landing. After the co-pilot calls V1, he/she will call VR or "rotate," marking speed at which to rotate the aircraft. The VR for transport category aircraft is calculated such as to allow the aircraft to reach the regulatory screen height at V2 with one engine failed. Then, V2 (the safe takeoff speed) is called. This speed must be maintained after an engine failure to meet performance targets for rate of climb and angle of climb. ....You see?

[Kulverstukas]

https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/195132/6154164.29e/0_bb201_7b55b370_orig

http://russos.ru/img/avia/pt154b-rle.pdf

[Chronus]

Nobody has answered my question

What is the take off speed for the TU-154? Please
Don`t have the numbers, but my guess would be V2 IAS 150 kts (ISO). It is a particularly fast bird with 35 degree swept anhedral wing, same as the Trident and heavily slat and flap dependant for slow speed performance.
There is an interesting research paper by Jorgensen published post the Smolensk crash, it may be read at:
http://konferencjasmolenska.pl/materialy3/06jorgensen.pdf
Considering the analysis set out in this paper I would be inclined to suggest that the so called technical failure points towards slats/flaps. I cannot conceive any other reason or cause for loss of lift at this particular phase of flight.

[Markdp]

kulverstukas

You have send me a chart in Russian. Thank you. I assume the left column is max take off based on my limited understanding of Russian. Vr,V2 and Vref i understand, where is V1, the point where you decide to continue the take off or abort the takeoff? Please just trying to understand Russian Philosophy.

[Tarq57]

Markdp -
V1 simply means the maximum speed the aircraft can accelerate to and then stop, so, on any type, it depends on variables such as the runway length, aircraft configuration, aircraft weight, and the weather.
It's not a fixed value; it's calculated for each departure.

[ATC Watcher]

Tarq57 : That was not what Markdp asked . In the chart there is no V1.
Without flaps the speeds here look like those of Concorde !
Impressive chart by the way. 100 Kmh difference between Flaps 0 and 28 .