Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

[map56233]

I do not post hear often, thought this might produce some discussion.
Summary
The aviation industry is not shy in showing how safe it is to fly, so in the same vein I present these figures
(The following figures are my estimates for combined SEP / Microlight hours/movements.)
Both the CAA and NATS are very vocal about the number of infringements, but only seem to be able to provide a raw data figure of around 1000 infringements a year which does seem a large number.
Of the sample supplied to me by the CAA I have extracted some 600 as being SEP/Microlight related.
I have used the range of 0.5m hours/movements to 2.537m hours/movements.(see data below)
At the high end 99.88% do not infringe.
At the low end 99.98% do not infringe.
As can bee seen the figures show that there are an insignificant number of infringements bearing in mind the nature and experience of SEP / Microlight pilot/flying.
In a recent FASVIG infringement analysis report
"Half were in receipt of a Basic Service"
"74% were not GPS equipped"
"Most infringer’s used a ½mill chart"

Whilst it is incumbent on the GA community to get its house in order, both the CAA and NATS have their part to play.
What is happening on the training front, why is pilot training still based on map, watch and compass?
What is the point of a "Basic Service"?


I found 5 'reports', I hope the people concerned do not mind me using their reports.

GAAC Fact sheet 14, 2008
http://www.gaac.org.uk/fs14_gaac.pdf

Strategic Review of General Aviation 2014/2015 (SRoGA)
https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/StrategicReviewGA.pdf

General Aviation Small Aerodrome Research Study, The National Pilot Survey T Lober 2004 (GASAR)
http://www.gaac.org.uk/gasar/GASAR_NationalPilotSurvey.pdf

DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT, THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF GENERAL AVIATION IN THE UK, Final Report February 2015(York)
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/417060/Economic_Impact_of_General_Aviation_in_the_UK.pdf

FASVIG "Recommendations for Infringement Workshop
on 12 July 2016" report
http://docs.fasvig.info/Infringement/20160712-FASVIG-Infringements-Data-Analysis-Final-Report-Revision1.pdf

Having spent some years of my life producing 'figures' for people I have used some of the data following to make the following observations.

From CAA airfield movements data (York) table 4.1 Aero Club/Private, SRoGA para 23 and GASAR
As a baseline I have taken the 2005 figures which give
3.318m hours with an allowance for other GA movements this will come close to the GAAC's 2008 4.6m movements

The 2013 figures yield 1.818m hours
Using the flight time figures from GASAR the average flight is about 43 minutes gives 2.537m movements

From SRoGA paras 24 and 25
28000 ppl's x 70 flights = 1.96m movements flying between 1.26m and 1.54m hours.

You can see from the above that I am not talking about insignificant numbers as far as hours and movements go.

If I use 500,000 as number of hours and movements flown over a year by SEP/Micro pilots the figures for 600 infringements is 0.12%.
If I use 1m as number of hours and movements flown over a year by SEP/Micro pilots the figures for 600 infringements is 0.06%.
If I use 1.818m as number of hours and movements flown over a year by SEP/Micro pilots the figures for 600 infringements is 0.03%.
If I use 2.537m as number of hours and movements flown over a year by SEP/Micro pilots the figures for 600 infringements is 0.02%.

I would be interested to know from both the CAA and NATS what CAT figures would be if they did not have the current level of service they have?
also what the levels of infringements would be if GA SEP had the same level of ATC service that CAT has?


I have used some of the following data.

GAAC Fact sheet 14, 2008
http://www.gaac.org.uk/fs14_gaac.pdf
“There are some 15,500 active GA aircraft based in the UK, flown by more than 32,000 pilots.
Some 4.6 million movements took place between approximately 1,140 formal flying sites.”

Strategic Review of General Aviation 2006
https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/St ... viewGA.pdf (https://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/StrategicReviewGA.pdf)
Page 13 para 22
“It is extremely difficult to provide an accurate overall picture of GA movements. The CAA reports movements at about 60 airfields....”
Para 23
“However, the hours data would suggest that, overall, GA activity is holding up, and what limited evidence is available for those airfields not in the CAA data would indicate that movements from these perhaps make up some three-quarters of all UK GA movements”
Para 24
“The total number of pilots licensed to fly powered aircraft in the UK is 47,000. Of these 19,000 have professional licences, and 28,000 have private licences of which 3,400 have the more basic national licence.”
Para 25
“Lober conducted a survey of GA pilots.(General Aviation Small Aerodrome Research Study, The National Pilot Survey2004)
The survey data is somewhat inconsistent, reflecting the problems in conducting the survey, and as a whole it is unlikely to be representative of all GA pilots (with microlight pilots for example being under represented and only powered-aircraft pilots included). Nonetheless, it offers some useful insights, suggesting that:
• pilots fly on average 45 to 55 hours a year, on 70 flights, with the average flight lasting an hour;”
Para 30 ….”The total figure is dominated by the “traditional” single-engined piston aircraft, where hours have declined slightly
from a peak in 1990, and remain at around the 0.6m mark (2002 figures)...”

General Aviation Small Aerodrome Research Study, The National Pilot Survey T Lober 2004
http://www.gaac.org.uk/gasar/GASAR_Nati ... Survey.pdf (http://www.gaac.org.uk/gasar/GASAR_NationalPilotSurvey.pdf)
“The average flight duration was again centred a round one hour figure at 1.06 hours.”

DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT, THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF GENERAL
AVIATION IN THE UK, Final Report February 2015(York)
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... the_UK.pdf (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/417060/Economic_Impact_of_General_Aviation_in_the_UK.pdf)

Suggests that GA 2013 is approx 60% of 2005 levels
Table 4.1: CAA UK Airport Statistics from Reporting Airports
Year

2005 . . . . . . 2013

Aero Club

601,766 . . . 299,265

Private

227,766 . . . 155,383

(Only selected fields as I could not get table to work)

[TheOddOne]

Thanks for sharing your insight into some stats that perhaps we hadn't appreciated.

What is happening on the training front, why is pilot training still based on map, watch and compass?

An interesting point that is raised from time to time and with which I have wrestled, without a complete conclusion.

As an instructor, I would say that in order to use a GPS safely, whether in the air, on the roads or out on the hills, one needs an understanding of the basics of navigation. I believe that this is best taught using a compass, timepiece and a map. What perhaps is lacking within the PPL course is after the student has got to grips with the basics is to introduce the use of GPS. The trouble is that unlike the standardised 1/2 mil chart, there is no standard GPS. Our training PA28 has a panel-mounted Skyforce which is very nice and easy to use, other aircraft in the Club have Garmin 540. Personally, I use an 8" Android tablet with Skydemon for personal x-countries in a non-GPS aircraft. All these need different learning and couldn't all be covered during the very limited time on the PPL course.
I switch the GPS in the PA28 off during lessons, for the same reason that I cover up the Attitude Indicator etc, so that students get to use the proper external references when learning basic aircraft handling. I suppose those folk teaching in glass cockpit aircraft have to turn the whole lot off!

TOO

[ATCO91]

Interesting stats.
My senior manager runs movement figures for the airport where I work, and you can come up with different problems, solutions and trends purely by altering the way one looks at and perceives the figures and chats shown. So i commend what you have done, as the big wig stats can be misleading and non representative.

What is point in a basic service?
Well MATS P1 defines

Basic Service is a type of UK FIS provided for the purpose of giving advice and
information useful for the safe and efficient conduct of flights. This may include weather
information, changes of serviceability of facilities, conditions at aerodromes, general
airspace activity information, and any other information likely to affect safety. The
avoidance of other traffic is solely the pilot’s responsibility.

With that in mind i think it is important to remember that as a pilot, whether in a Heavy airliner or "puddle jumping" C150, you are ultimately responsible for the safe conduct of the flight. A Basic Service is exactly how it sounds, BASIC. Some units providing this service are NOT radar equipped and are in no position to turn you away from airspace. Don't be fooled if you are a given a squawk, it could merely be conspicuity, (i.e adjacent radar units know which ATS is working that aircraft). You are also one of however many receiving a service, some others may be on more advance services (Traffic, Radar Control) so they will have more attention.

What is happening to training?

I agree, some solo students and new PPL's are hard work. For some i think it is a fear of ATC (PPL's can be obtained without ever having to work a full ATC frequency, but that is a different debate altogether). I did my PPL with, 90% of the time a full, gleaming G1000 in front of me, but i did do some training with the standard 6 and had previous flying hours (passenger) with the 6 pack. It's brilliant knowing that if my GPS fails i know how to navigate home, however I do think that student PPL's should be given basic GPS training. That magenta line will not help you avoid airspace unless you plug the route in yourself to avoid it ( I mean that kind of basic training). I think the magenta line could be one cause of infringements, but that is just my opinion.



Generally i think the UK aviation community needs to get its house in order. The airspace mapping is a shambles and confusing. PPL's need to be taught to not be scared of ATC and to admit when they are lost. No one will report you for being lost, but they will report an infringement. But ultimately, I think everyone should talk more about their own experiences whether its face to face via an organised social, CHIRP, internal reporting system at the local flying club or here on the forums. Too many people shy away from sharing there close calls and incidents and that is not a proactive community.

[Romeo Tango]

I get the impression reading this thread that some feel that we should all be radar controlled at all times. I don't want this.
I prefer not to talk to anybody at all, the basic service is a useful option if one has to cross some controlled airspace.

In these days of expensive people and cheap electronics I would have thought the trend is to have TCAS/FLARM, compulsory transponders and less ATC.

If one really wants to cut incursions make mode-S compulsory and send the aircraft owner automatic fines if they go where they shouldn't. Do it too often or too badly then suspend the license. Maybe a points system like cars.

[Parson]

I like nothing more than heading off across country with just a map, compass and my skill (what there is of it). Very satisfying to find your destination by dead reckoning.

Yes, of course we have all manner of navigation aids these days but, as noted above, if I find a GPS in a light a/craft that I'm hiring, it is usually different to one I have used before and do not have the inclination (or time) to learn to use it. Would be different if I was flying the same a/craft all the time I guess. Some sort of moving map display is obviously useful as a back up but I still prefer dead reckoning as primary means of navigation.