EASY_OUT

[REMAX11]

It's too early to say but, I have already been approached this morning from interested parties to start thinking about the new realities of EU-UK in the aviation market:

1-an old airline is ready to demand EASY out of their country and EU market.
2-some aviation investors, want to start ASAP with a new LLC.
3-1 big ATO already thinking about the consequences for their UK clients...

Just saying...

Interesting times ahead. Unfortunately the Rome treaty is basically the armageddon for BREXIT...and people are starting to think about using it!

Poor good old Britain.

[skyloone]

Even with a local AOC and shareholding group?

[REMAX11]

Do you believe that the Germans had not thought about that? DLH has a major problem: they need Eurowings to be successful and they will play all the political power in their sleeves in order to have that.

Negotiations will be long and could turn any direction but, remember that EU is mostly run by Germans...

[Plastic787]

New AOC. Job done. What's the problem?

[Giggey]

Norvegian everyone? Nothing will change....

[FullWings]

As the current way to set up an airline seems to involve contract crews on IOM registered, Bahamian-leased aircraft paid through a subsidiary in Lichtenstein, the whole thing is so obfuscated that no-one really knows who owns and runs what. Add in all the complicated agreements and conventions between nations and blocs and I don’t see much changing, really.

IAG, for one, seem to have seen this coming (or are fortuitous) as they are both in and out of the EU simultaneously...

[virginblue]

I think it is not about the EEA, but the the ECAA (European Common Aviation Area).

Norvegian everyone? Nothing will change....

Norway is part of the ECAA - the UK would need to negotiate a membership with the EU. And I see little incentive to let the UK in as European airlines have more to loose than to win from that. Norway is mainly in because otherwise SAS could not have been accommodated and nobody thought of Norwegian back then. All other ECAA members are really minor players and were let in because they pose no threat. Switzerland as a non-ECAA member has a bilateral with the EU, but this linked to other bilaterals that entail some of the very rights that led the Brits to brexit.

[matkat]

Fullwings IOM aircraft cannot be used for anything other than general aviation indeed if you know of any A/C with an 'M' registration being used commercially I would urge to bring that to the authorities.

[azdriver]

New AOC. Job done. What's the problem?
new AOC. Job done. What's the problem?

I do not believe is going to be that easy...

I am sure they will make provisions against those kind of solutions. There are lots of players that will gain from restricting UK companies...

[FullWings]

Fullwings IOM aircraft cannot be used for anything other than general aviation indeed if you know of any A/C with an 'M' registration being used commercially I would urge to bring that to the authorities.
It was more of an invented example using as many tax havens and dodgy jurisdictions as I could think of rather than absolute reality. Although that comes close, sometimes...

[Piltdown Man]

There are lots of players that will gain from restricting UK companies...

Too right, but if our negotiators are any good such restrictions will work both ways. If you want open skies then so do we.

[ExDubai]

Do you believe that the Germans had not thought about that? DLH has a major problem: they need Eurowings to be successful and they will play all the political power in their sleeves in order to have that.

Negotiations will be long and could turn any direction but, remember that EU is mostly run by Germans...
Where is the problem? You can't enjoy the benefits of a club and in the same time give back the membership and bad-mouth about the club. Yes they have to negotiate, and yes the negotiations will be tough because there is no future discount for the U.K. The voters decided, now they have to deal with it. **** happens....

[Tu.114]

Too right, but if our negotiators are any good such restrictions will work both ways. If you want open skies then so do we.

The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same. Also, the EU is likely to take a tough stance on the UK "pour encourager les autres": there are separationists in other countries, albeit not on such a large scale as in the UK.

The decision has been made yesterday and as good democrats the Europeans have to accept it. Whatever may happen, I wish the UK all the best and, yes, good luck as well on their new solitary way.

[Metro man]

As 40% of European air traffic is to/from the UK it's too important a market to disregard and arrangements will need to be made. How about pilot's licenses ? Back to the old British Licence perhaps ?

What about pilots working for Ryanair in EU bases with a British passport, will they need to apply for work permits ? An Irish passport is now much more valuable than a British one as the Irish have always had the right to live and work in the UK and can also do the same in any EU country.

[Tu.114]

Metro Man, is that O/D traffic or is it transfer?

In the first case, this number is not unlikely to shrink with less EU citizens taking up residency in the UK and travelling between their original country and their new home.

In the second case, this is likely to shrink as well as long as there is no open skies agreement. This will benefit the continental European airlines not insignificantly, so expect pressure from those on the EU to mind their position when negotiating the impending divorce.

[Groundloop]

How about pilot's licenses ? Back to the old British Licence perhaps ?

Licenses are EASA based. EASA in NOT the EU.

[ExDubai]

The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same. Also, the EU is likely to take a tough stance on the UK "pour encourager les autres": there are separationists in other countries, albeit not on such a large scale as in the UK.

The decision has been made yesterday and as good democrats the Europeans have to accept it. Whatever may happen, I wish the UK all the best and, yes, good luck as well on their new solitary way.
The future negotiations are also a signal for other countries and their possible vote. I don't expect any discount for the UK. Tough negotiations ahead....

[ExDubai]

No need to worry to much
easyJet eyes new European operation if Britain flies solo (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/easyjet-eyes-new-european-operation-if-britain-flies-solo/)

[Metro man]

EASA is an agency of the European Union and may be unwilling to issue licences on the strength of a non member country's aviation authority. Perhaps the old CAA Licence will be reintroduced and pilots wanting an EASA Licence will need to do the tests in Europe.

Employing UK nationals would be less attractive for low costs with multiple bases across Europe as work permits would be needed. Any British based low cost operating intra European flights needs to start thinking about its future base of operations.

Britain has always had a trading relationship with the rest of Europe, it will be interesting to see what form the new one will take. Malaysia kicked Singapore out in 1965, on its own Singapore has done far better over the last 50 years.

[OldLurker]

The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same.Hmm. If it came to playing hardball, the UK could withdraw from the International Air Services Transit Agreement, as Canada did in 1988, and negotiate individual transit agreements with other countries. How inconvenient would it be for EU airlines to be denied overflight of UK airspace on the way to North America?

Anyway, no need to get over-excited - it's only the day after the vote! At least two years to go before actual exit! Lots of time for common sense to prevail. If common sense doesn't prevail - well, we'll know who our friends really are, and who our enemies are.

[Tu.114]

OldLurker, Your consideration seems to strengthen my point.

You are right that being disallowed overflight of the UK would be a major inconvenience for continental EU operators. However, the UK airlines would not be better off, were the EU to play "tit for tat" here and forbid UK companies from crossing EU airspace, would they? Then it will be either the northern route around Norway or the southern one around Portugal and Spain, should an UK aircraft wish to fly to or from Asia.

While this split is most regrettable in my eyes, it ought to be executed in a civilized manner with Gentlemen on both sides of the table. No need to wheel out perceived strenghts that may well turn into weaknesses upon closer examination. From both sides.

[skyloone]

Does FR still hold the old Buzz AOC. What's involved in getting it resurrected if they needed to?

[oliver2002]

EZY will probably just do what Norwegian did: register in Ireland or any EU country that is willing and use that to benefit for intra EU rights.

Traffic to/from EU is mainly Loco for leisure and legacy to London and/or Oil. The latter will diminished post 2018.

[NOT ORANGE]

Ryanair had full page adverts for remain,as we all know that union recognition is an important right within Eire,by law…oh we got round that one.As far as EASA goes they have made massive inroads into altimeter accuracy in RVSM ,whoopee bloody do!

[ExXB]

"Community Air Carrier" is defined in EU regulations as being substantially owned and effectively controlled by EU nationals. Interpretation is left to each MS when issuing an AOC.

if the remaining MS's enforce these provisions there will not be an EU-Easy that is owned and controlled by UK-Easy. In some jurisdictions these O&C rules are more than 51% ownership (US is 75%) and require nationals in all senior management positions.

Swiss-Easy is 51% owned by Swiss nationals but 100% controlled by UK-Easy. The Swiss don't care, nor do the other 27, at the moment. I foresee difficult times for them as well.

I'd expect a strict interpretation here, as will the UK in registering any UK-Ryanair.

Edited to add: And I don't see an easy ride for IAG. IAG's airlines can be either EU or British, not both. And here it will be third countries determining if IB is EU, or BA is British. BA without traffic rights is just a domestic airline.

[pineridge]

terrain safe posted.......

"uote: Originally Posted by Giggey http://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/580763-easy_out.html#post9418386)
Norvegian everyone? Nothing will change....
Norway are in the European Economic Area. Which means free movement of people...."

I think he is talking about the airline, not the nation.

[ExXB]

Pineridge - Norway is in the ECAA, meaning their airlines are community air carriers, because they are in the EEA. The EEA puts Norway into the 'free movement of people' camp.

Britain can do the same, join the EEA, and there could be status quo ante. But why Brexit if status quo on free movement is acceptable.

[EAM]

That would be the best joke ever. Leaving the EU because of the "dictatorship" in Brussels and then join the EEA where you are not on the table and have nothing to say about the rules. On the other side, why should they want the UK as a member? We can still fly to/from the UK, like UK airlines can do the same to the EU, but no UK airline can fly within the EU, but no EU airline wants to fly within the UK.

@OldLurker then you should plan your next holiday on the Falklands or look for a train to get to Spain :E

[Piltdown Man]

exDubai - So as a result of Britain deciding to leave the EU, easyJet will set up another European operation in a country that is not a member of the EU? I don't see the logic.

I also can not imagine us being hit with hefty EU tariffs. We have traded with Europe for centuries (give or take the odd war) as we have with rest of the world. It is in our interests as it is with Europe's to trade with the minimum of fuss. Open markets, well documented standards and clear legal systems are essential and that is what I signed up to in 1975. And that is what we can still achieve with our European friends and neighbours. And they want the same. But until yesterday, we did not have the right to say "No!" Now we can and we can also do the same with the rest of the world.

Will we lose jobs as a result of this outcome? Bloody hell yes. For a start our lovely bankers will have to take their casino/gambling operations to Frankurt (with the inherent risks of such undertakings) and the downsized City might eventually become an asset to our country. But short term, nothing will happen. The big rocks from the explosion will fall back to earth over the next few days and the dust will settle for a few months. Then we'll see what's left and set about working towards a prosperous future with our friends and neighbours.

[ExDubai]

Piltdown Man Don't now where they will setup an operation. But it's easy for them to use their swiss AOC because the agreements between Switzerland and the EU are in place.

For the rest, wait and see. Interesting times ahead....

[Hussar 54]

Don't underestimate the clout that LH has inside the EU.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/537133-lh-cancels-3-800-flights-due-pilot-strike-3.html#post8419190

It might not be as easy ( like the pun ? ) as many would like.

[Aluminium shuffler]

Wow! The voting is all over, but still the BS scaremongering continues.

Firstly, nothing is going to change for some considerable time, between 2 and 5 years.

Secondly, plenty of other EU nations are likely to have similar referendums, so we won't be alone in our region, and in all probability this is a fatal blow for the EU and it'll break apart completely over then next 5-10 years.

Thirdly, not being in the EU doesn't prevent trade. The UK aren't pulling up drawbridges and the Europeans aren't likely to either. The EU might be indignant enough to try, but I suspect negotiations would not be with the EU but the individual Sovreign governments because of the paragraph above.

British aviation managed just fine before the EU, arguably a lot better in market share (especially manufacturing). All the doom mongering is some dark fantasy by malevolent mentalities.

[ExXB]

But no EU airline wants to fly within the UK.


Er, Ryanair? They also want to fly from the UK to EU countries other than Ireland.

Easy very much wants to continue their intra EU (except UK) and EU domestic flights.

Aluminium shufflers, please use Jet Blast.

[Denti]

Firstly, nothing is going to change for some considerable time, between 2 and 5 years. Actually, exactly 2 years from invoking invoking article 50 of the treaty of lisbon. Yes, that timeframe can be extendet if both sides agree on that, however, dont expect the EU to show any inclination to that.

Secondly, plenty of other EU nations are likely to have similar referendums, so we won't be alone in our region, and in all probability this is a fatal blow for the EU and it'll break apart completely over then next 5-10 years.
Exactly to prevent any similar referendums the EU is forced to play hardball to the extreme. And of course promise those parts of the UK that would rather be independent a fast track entry back in to the club.

[ManaAdaSystem]

WOW, it's funny to read how the whole of Europe will crawl to the UK and beg them to keep trading.
The EU is the main factor for stability in Europe.
HSBC just cut the predicted share price of Norwegian by 50 %.

You can't show the finger to the rest of Europe and think everything will be the same. It will not.

[virginblue]

Firstly, nothing is going to change for some considerable time, between 2 and 5 years.
Actually, exactly 2 years from invoking invoking article 50 of the treaty of lisbon. Yes, that timeframe can be extendet if both sides agree on that, however, dont expect the EU to show any inclination to that.

The EU has already reminded the UK today that they cannot sit back and relax until UK-wrecker Dave Cameron has been replaced in October. The EU will fast track this as much as they can now that the die is cast.

[Avenger]

It took 10 years to organise EASA and it's still not complete, BREXIT will have no marked impact on us for at least 5 years..

[ExXB]

Avenger, as long as the UK follows EASA rules, you are probably right. But as far as traffic rights are concerned they, and EU airlines such as FR, are up sh*t creek without a canoe.

At best they will get a EU-Swiss model. Unlimited 1st to 5ths, but no 7ths to 9ths. In other words, every FR flight UK - EU is going to have to originate in Ireland and vv.

[Ian W]

The UK is not in the strongest position when it comes to those negotiations unfortunately. The remaining EU countries have less to lose by denying the UK an open skies agreement (and many other things) than the UK has by doing the same. Also, the EU is likely to take a tough stance on the UK "pour encourager les autres": there are separationists in other countries, albeit not on such a large scale as in the UK.

The decision has been made yesterday and as good democrats the Europeans have to accept it. Whatever may happen, I wish the UK all the best and, yes, good luck as well on their new solitary way.

I would think that the UK, should it want to, could be extremely awkward. How about telling EUROCONTROL route charges office that the route charges for airlines from EU countries that do not have a bilateral agreement with UK will be (name a figure) 20 times higher for transit through UK FIR/UIR. That would make transatlantic operations from the EU extremely expensive for those countries that wanted to be difficult.
This is not really the way to go but don't think that if particular countries are going to be awkward UK just has to sit on its hands and take it.

[Tu.114]

Ian W,
in that case, what would keep the EU from responding in kind? As I wrote in a previous post, for continental EU airlines, the other option would be to route around GB (or, should the centrifugal tendencies pick up in pace, around England only). For UK airlines, the option would be either to pay the likewise massively increased fees on much longer routes across the remaining EU or to select routes around Norway and Finland in the north or around Portugal, Spain and Italy in the south.

Now, would that have a bigger impact on European or on British aviation?

[ExXB]

Aluminium S.

No, I'm not scaremongering. I've outline the challenges that the UK WILL experience as they move from a fully liberalised aviation market to a more traditional one - something Switzeland has with the EU.

If the UK does not wish to be in the free movement of people then, at best, they will get a liberalised, but not fully liberalised air service agreement with the EU. 1st to 5ths, at most. Switzerland, which has free movement, has just that. No 7ths, 8ths or 9ths. This means Easy and Ryanair are ****ed. They have few options, and even fewer if EU countries decide to play hardball.

Spain had already announced that Gibraltar is on the table. Elgin Marbles and Cypriot Soverign bases will soon join them.

But please, let's leave the politics to JB. It has happened and nothing is going to change that. It's time to face the consequences.

[Dannyboy39]

Trading conditions in the UK aviation market was already very tough and its been quite surprising that the airlines have been quite resilient to it and there hasn't been a major failure, albeit a couple of very near misses.

The threat from terrorism in Egypt and Turkey; two strong tourism destinations (the former an important winter destination for UK airlines) and the migrant crisis also affecting Greece is forcing UK tourists to the west of Europe. Airlines are moving their capacity, however there's only a finite amount these resorts can take and now there's a shortage of accommodation. As such its become a race to the bottom and massively important yields are diminished because there's now overcapacity. The summer season is what keeps many airlines afloat.

The UK government also float an uncompetitive APD, hidden as a 'green tax' which tries to suppress demand.

The industry needed this result like a hole in the head. Undoubtedly this will cost jobs and a further suppression of terms and conditions.

[Herod]

From Flying Headbutt.
My God there really is some :mad: pedalled on this forum sometimes. Nobody knows what will happen but the dust will eventually settle and the sun will continue to rise in East.

Yes, and if my ageing memory is correct, airlines managed to fly from one country to another before the creation of the EU, and will probably continue to do so long after the EU has gone.

[Peter47]

I don't for a second pretend to understand this all, but FR will continue to be an EU airline so will keep the rights they have now except for internal UK services. (If Scotland leaves the Union that may change). These could be negotiated, otherwise FR would need to set up a UK subsidiary.

The UK & Ireland have a common travel area which was negotiated prior to the UK joining the EU and this includes the right to work in both countries. Presumably this won't change. However it MAY mean that UK pilots could only be based in Ireland. Or be based in DUB but spend many nights away at EU airports. Of course, if FR can sponsor pilots for Irish citizenship problem solved. How long must you be resident in NI to be eligible for Irish citizenship.

U2 would require a subsidiary in any EU country.

Now it gets complicated. If FR/U2 wish to operate a common fleet could they wet lease aircraft as an when required from the UK & EU? This may be for individual sectors so that a plane & crew flies EDI - LGW for U2(UK) then LGW - AMS for U2(EU). Both would presumably have rights for AMS - EDI.

As other posts have said the danger is if someone wants to make a political point. However the LoCos must have political clout and common sense may prevail.

Just my thoughts.

[bar none]

Herod.

Before the creation of the EU British and Irish airlines did not fly intra European routes or domestics in Europe such as Ryanair Stn Edi or easyjet Ory Nce. That is what we are banging on about.

[Wageslave]

Its almost as staggering as the result of this travesty of "democracy" to read people saying Ryanair is in the same basket as EJ. I know logic and rationale have been suspended for the week but...

Let me try to explain in Senior Officer's terms...

Ryanair is an IRISH company. IRELAND is in the EU. What happens to their network after this "vote" is inconsequential. They continue to trade as before losing perhaps a handful of internal British routes.

Easyjet, on the other hand, is NOT going to be in the EU. It will therefore NOT be able to fly the - what? I guess - 90% of its routes that are EU to EU. Now I know maths and logic are not at a premium after today's vote but rest assured that this means EJ are quite likely to lose 90% of their network. How do you suppose that might affect EJ's business compared to Ryanair's?

Easyjet is done for, tragically. Ryanair and the other EU junk carriers will expand to fill the space in the next couple of years. Common sense can clearly play no part whatsoever and as our poor, sad, dying country no longer has any political clout what on earth do you think a mere failing loco airline might do to change matters?

Well voted, Lemmings!

[Hussar 54]

Easyjet is done for, tragically. Ryanair and the other EU junk carriers will expand to fill the space in the next couple of years. Common sense can clearly play no part whatsoever and as our poor, sad, dying country no longer has any political clout what on earth do you think a mere failing loco airline might do to change matters?

Well voted, Lemmings!
24th Jun 2016 22:09

Thought we said this sort of stuff belonged in JB.

As it happens, EZ is most likely to follow IAG's example and seek a place on the Zurich, Amsterdam or Frankfurt Stock Exchange instead of the London Stock Exchange.

As long as the company changes its statute to be legally incorporated, or create a new holding company for its intra-EU operations, in an EU country, it doesn't really matter where the myriad individual shareholders are domiciled.

As for MO'L's train set, of course he's pi88ed off - most of his growth the past 10 years or so and and a huge portion of his revenue comes from shifting the fruit pickers and warehouse staffers between the UK and Eastern European countries. Replacing this traffic will be far more difficult and problematic than EZ's transition to a Swiss, Dutch or German company.

[Tom!]

Ryanair is an IRISH company. IRELAND is in the EU. What happens to their network after this "vote" is inconsequential. They continue to trade as before losing perhaps a handful of internal British routes.

Easyjet, on the other hand, is NOT going to be in the EU. It will therefore NOT be able to fly the - what? I guess - 90% of its routes that are EU to EU. Now I know maths and logic are not at a premium after today's vote but rest assured that this means EJ are quite likely to lose 90% of their network. How do you suppose that might affect EJ's business compared to Ryanair's?

How about Ryanair's UK-continental EU traffic, on 7th freedom rights? still allowed?

[edi_local]

The UK & Ireland have a common travel area which was negotiated prior to the UK joining the EU and this includes the right to work in both countries. Presumably this won't change. However it MAY mean that UK pilots could only be based in Ireland. Or be based in DUB but spend many nights away at EU airports. Of course, if FR can sponsor pilots for Irish citizenship problem solved. How long must you be resident in NI to be eligible for Irish citizenship.


Irish citizenship requirements:
Who can become an Irish citizen? (http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/irish_citizenship/who_can_become_an_irish_citizen.html)

It's a shame I don't meet any as I'd have snapped one up by now. :{

I have heard very little about the CTA in this whole big mess of a referendum. It's been around for a long time and I am not sure why all the talk about borders in NI are so loud. Seems like the DUP have just been waiting to build a wall of their own for ages and an excuse has finally come up.

The CTA could easily remain and GB/IE just continue as they do now, it makes no odds that one is in the EU or not, neither are in schengen and they could just introduce a shared visa system and shared monitoring of who comes in and when/where. Being islands there is only one of 2 countries someone is going to be able to move around before having to show a passport to get out of one of them. I don't see why there would be any need to end this agreement, just a slight enhancement on the external borders, based purely on convenience of the sheer numbers of people who cross between GB/IE every day, by land, sea and air it'd be pretty retrograde to impose major checks.

The current cross border set up of random checks on vehicles by land and sea and checking ID on flights should suffice. There would be barely any illegals coming in via Ireland anyway as they aren't in Schengen so anyone heading there needs a passport or visa anyway. The fact you can only get in by ship or plane from mainland Europe limits the numbers somewhat. In all probability the UK is, much to the annoyance of many a brexiteer, highly unlikely to impose anything other than slightly watered down free movement of people, again, purely for practical reasons. If the UK or EU wants to change that then both set to lose out, so it'd be pointless. The UK needs it's citizens to easily get access to Europe and in order to get that then we will have to accept the opposite.

Yes, there may be the odd work or residence permit to obtain for people working or settling after we actually leave, but that will probably just be there to know who came after the brexit date and therefore won't get access to free NHS or Benefits, for however long, for example. The talk of "controlling our borders" has many connotations and actually lowering the numbers physically coming may not be one of them as even the brexiteers know that'd be pretty self defeatist in a continent as closely linked as Europe. Restricting people once they are here is a different matter as by doing that they can indirectly lower the numbers by making it less attractive to come here. I hardly think we will become something like Belarus.

UK customs procedures will not likely change from what they are now, so there is no issue there as currently IE is the same as us anyway. Most countries, EU or not, follow pretty much the same customs rules anyway.

So basically all this vote may end up actually doing is taking the UK and Europe through years of market uncertainty and expensive, strung out ,late night talks in board rooms in Brussels all for nearly nothing. In the end we will more than likely end up in a situation not that different to what we have now, only millions of tiny trade deal details and other Pan European legislation will have been torn to shreds and then pretty much stuck back together again to refer to the UK as an external market. Benefits like EU roaming capping, various workers rights, the ability to truly freely work and live abroad, the safety of being able to use any EU embassy in the event of an emergency abroad or the ruling about not being able to charge men more than women on car insurance will vanish to our detriment. Doesn't make sense to me, but that's the way it's gone!

Oh, and Scotland might walk away from it all too!

:ok:

[Skipname]

[QUOTEAs it happens, EZ is most likely to follow IAG's example and seek a place on the Zurich, Amsterdam or Frankfurt Stock Exchange instead of the London Stock Exchange.

As long as the company changes its statute to be legally incorporated, or create a new holding company for its intra-EU operations, in an EU country, it doesn't really matter where the myriad individual shareholders are domiciled.[/QUOTE]

If EZ does move to a country in the EU, what will happen to their crew (pilots and cabin crew). To work in the EU one must have the legal right to do so and by exiting the EU all the UK nationals loose that right.
Personally I doubt EU will hand out work permits to UK nationals just because they used to be part of it.

[Hussar 54]

Agreed....

I'm sure that there will be some Flight Crews who will be messed around.

Equally, there will be quite a few who will finally get the base the've been waiting for since forever - whether UK nationals currently stuck in the EU, or EU crews currently stuck in the UK - as crews are transferred around the network between the two operating units. It's amazing how Management can accomplish these transfers at times of crisis but can't do it at times of non-crisis.

The other option, of course, is for EZ service in the UK to be operated by ACMI arrangement with EZ aircraft from the EU based legal entity ( or the other way round, of course ) as schedules require. Absolutely certain that the UK would not object to this - the EU might need persuading.

[polax52]

That corporate message from Carolyn McCall must rank as one of the most wishful thinking CEO statements ever issued. Appealing to governments who have nothing to gain and a lot to lose to expedite their request that Britain remains part Of the single EU aviation market. It simply is not going to happen.


It was made very clear today by European leaders that Britain will not be allowed to cherry pick EU benefits. Britain is out of the EU and that includes the single EU aviation market.

[LW20]

To remain the right of EU-EU flights Easy Jet will have to get an AOC in the EU. ( Or use their Swiss AOC). EU Airline must not be owned and controlled by non-EU investores. The planes therefore will have to be registered in the respective EU-Country. To fly these planes by british nationals they must have the right to work and live in the EU. UK will be granted these rights only if they grant them to EU-Nationals as well. But this is one of, if not the crutial point, why the Brexeteers want to leave the EU. So if things really go bad, the big loosers will be the Easy Jet Crews with a british passport. Their planes will move, and they might not be allowed to follow them

[Heathrow Harry]

totally correct................

[FullWings]

Europe must be very punitive otherwise the EU disintegrates into pre-WW2 factions.
The EU is well along the way to that already, without any help from the UK. What’s going to happen to Greece when the money runs out again? Spain with 24% unemployment (>50% for the young)? Italy which is split in two with deep structural problems, etc. Unless you’re Germany or France (which is displaying alarming symptoms of recent times) it must be quite worrying.

I didn’t vote to leave but I can understand the feelings of some of those that did. We see now the true colours of people like Juncker who are the unelected emperors of Europe. Things didn’t go exactly their way so they turn nasty (one suspects that they were like that all along when dealing with the upstart UK). Unlike the actual leaders of the individual EU countries, who are sad at the prospective loss and speak very diplomatically about it.

The EU started as the EEC, which was a collection of trade agreements and other things to facilitate this. I see an eventual return to this original state as, IMO, the economies, politics and aspirations of the remaining countries are just too disparate to remain glued together as a superstate in the long term.

[barry lloyd]

FullWings:

One of the most reasoned posts I have seen on this forum so far. Ultimately this will change the whole shape of Europe, whether the politicians like it or not.

[henra]

As 40% of European air traffic is to/from the UK it's too important a market to disregard and arrangements will need to be made.

Where did you get that figure from?
Source?

[ExXB]

Ryanair is an IRISH company. IRELAND is in the EU. What happens to their network after this "vote" is inconsequential. They continue to trade as before losing perhaps a handful of internal British routes.
And all routes between UK and EU countries other than Ireland. (7th freedom) Guessing more than 80% of their flights (??)

[CaptainProp]

....and those of us flying UK registered aircraft with an EU license and EU passport? Same thing potentially as for the British pilots in EU I guess? Might get a letter over next few years getting the boot as they will hire British nationals to replace us. This will be such a mess on so many levels...

[ZeBedie]

No way will that happen to you. Never. No chance.

[ExXB]

To remain the right of EU-EU flights Easy Jet will have to get an AOC in the EU. ( Or use their Swiss AOC).

No the Swiss AOC would only give them 3rd/4ths/5ths from/to/via Switzerland. AOCs in EU member states would be dependant on that countriy's interpretation of ownership and control. They could be flexible, but they could play hardball.

[virginblue]

You really must be joking. The UK got special deals and rebates for 40 years, and when finally some member states said "enough is enough", a few other member states like Germany agreed to fund the UK rebate (commonly konw as the "Thatcher rebate") on their own to keep the UK in. And this "more more more special treatment" is exactly the reason that quite a few EU member states inofficially do not really shed a tear now and are on course to play hardball with the UK when it comes to exit negotiations (and probably will be very accommodating to the Scots joining the EU just to show Englad & Wales a finger).

As for moving EZY to Switzerland, this really is no solution as this only grants limited traffic rights and the whole EU-Swiss treaty is not secure - should the Swiss decide to pull just one of the various bilaterals with the EU (e.g. free movement), this will also automatically put an end to the aviation treaty.

[Peter47]

Foreigners who have worked in a country MAY inherit grandfather rights (possibly through the Vienna Treaty, but I'm no expert, I've just been looking at the internet). However this may require having worked for a certain time. It could depend upon factors such as labour shortages and the negotiating / lobbying power of airlines and pilots associations, etc.

If there is a shortage of pilots no problem. Ireland, for example, might not want to issue work permits to foreigners if there are lots of unemployed Irish pilots. If there is a shortage of pilots work permits will very likely be forthcoming (Swissair had no trouble employing foreigners when they couldn't find natives). If there is a sudden downturn they could of course withdraw those permits. (Interesting where seniority lists come in then.)

As a matter of interest if UK pilots could only fly to/from UK but 50% of such flying was done by UK pilots (no reason of course why this should be case, it could be 90%) who would gain most, UK or non UK pilots?

I suspect that applying for dual citizenship is available might be an advantage. Its interesting but complicated area that's interests me. I am a UK citizen but I was born in Germany. However, unlike some countries such as the USA & Ireland being born in Germany does not automatically qualify one for citizenship. (I don't speak the language so that could be a problem.) The MP for the constituency north of Heathrow, I believe his name is Johnson, was born in the US & I hear has been trying to renounce his US citizenship to avoid taxes - along with some at Cathay Pacific. My sister married a Frenchman of East European descent who was a permanent resident (but not citizen) of Switzerland and now lives there with right of residence. I must check what citizenships they have.

[virginblue]

Switzerland was not an EU state, so I don't know what their rules were. My understanding is that in EU members states the principle of Community preference applies, i.e. third country skilled labour can only be hired if labour demand cannot be met with workers from other EU member states.

[Dannyboy39]

Just to throw a scenario into the mixer:

Going back to the 1980s, prior to the liberalisation of the European aviation market, routes were dictated based on bilateral relations between different states. It allowed the big players, such as British Airways, to rule the roost in the UK airline market. It enabled, due to a lack of competition on key routes, to charge excessively high fares.

When the likes of easyJet and Ryanair started their hyper-aggressive expansions, national carriers became squeezed out on short haul and now struggle to compete and turn a profit. Passengers less interest in service and quality, instead just wanting to get from A to B in the shortest and cheapest way.

I work for a UK airline, which is usually the 2nd or 3rd player on most, if not all routes. Could we go back to a situation where certain governments could prevent more than 1-2 non-EU carriers to operate a certain route, to enhance the chances of their home carriers and as such protecting their jobs? By EU law, a state cannot 'sponsor' an airline - this would be an indirect way to help their residents.

Further afield, there are restrictions between flying to places like Rio de Janeiro and Moscow; the latter which easyJet at one time were able to operate at the expense of Virgin Atlantic, but only up to double daily. The former is an extremely expensive route in relative terms, as there is no open skies agreement, to my knowledge, between Brazil and the UK, as such preventing competition.

The losers are passengers, who will see an increase in fares and employees, as Ts & Cs will be further stretched.

[polax52]

From watching the European ministers press conference yesterday, my understanding was that, against common sense, the UK had to leave the EU and all of its associated institutions before we could start trade negotiations. The ramifications of that are that the European legal system and restrictions will apply against all British companies operating in Europe for the period between leaving the EU and completing negotiations. During this period Easyjet and British crew will suffer. The Easyjet operation in Milan will have to close for a period. Probably the re-opening will be under the 51% ownership rules. This would mean corporate taxes would be paid outside the UK. This will apply to many different companies I think the British treasury will have a large shortfall in revenue. Interest rates that the UK pays on its national debt are also going up as credit ratings are cut. The UK will not keep its place as the 5th Biggest economy in the World.

[Heathrow Harry]

To be correct

We have not yet told them we are leaving - so EU rules still apply

Once we do there if a 2 year negotiation period - EU rules still apply

After 2 years we're out - if there is no finalised deal we're back to WTO rules BUT there may be certain grandfather rights with individual states (as there are apparently on fishing). Effectively we'd be rewinding the clock to the early 80's with the original EU members . God knows where we'd stand with later joiners such as Spain & Romania

Better ask Boris & Farage.............

[scr1]

Of course if Scotland were to become independent within the EU easyjet could just move north. probably lots of crew have some Scottish connection and could then claim dual nationality and work anywhere in the EU.

The trouble just now is that NO ONE know what the F**K is gong to happen. From the most powerful politician right down to the road sweeper.

[polax52]

scr1- You are correct.










One thing that we do know is that there is no system in Spain or Italy to issue large numbers of work permits and no incentive to create a system.
Even if they did want to create a work permit system (which they don't) it would take a very long time and then when created it would be very bureaucratic.


There is absolutely no possibility for British crew members based in those countries to stay.


On the other hand Britain will set up an efficient work permit system for those European workers currently in the UK because it was a British decision to leave the EU.

[4468]

Many British airlines employ many European pilots. British Airways being a prime example. Should either side seek to play 'hard ball' there will be many casualties on both sides.

That is in nobody's best interests!

An absolute minimum of two years is available to find acceptable answers. This is day three, and the clock hasn't even started yet!

[OldLurker]

One thing that we do know is that there is no system in Spain or Italy to issue large numbers of work permits and no incentive to create a system.
Even if they did want to create a work permit system (which they don't) it would take a very long time and then when created it would be very bureaucratic.

There is absolutely no possibility for British crew members based in those countries to stay.
Well, they can stay while the UK is still in the EU, until the Article 50 process is complete.

Then ... Surely there must be some non-EU nationals working legally in Spain or Italy right now? In which case they must have some kind of work permit system?

[clipstone1]

it is definitely a risk primarily for EZY, since as has been said they will need a new EU based company that is 51% owned within the EU. I don't have access to the domicile breakdown of their existing shareholders, but if when the UK ones are added to the other non-EU shareholders it comes to more than 50% they have an issue.

TUI AG likewise have a similar issue, since 15% is a Russian shareholder (so non-EU) 6% are private investors (mostly the Directors & employees of former TUI Travel PLC so UK) then 76% are institutional shareholders (primarily coming from the TUI Travel PLC days so heavily UK biased)

[ESQU]

Maybe Sir Stelios will take his large holding to a EU country.

[Rwy in Sight]

ESQU isn't he from another EU country as well with good links to the UK - Dual citizen maybe?

[RexBanner]

He's from an EU country that is sure to be one of the next to leave!

[Heathrow Harry]

"No way will that happen to you. Never. No chance."

want to bet???

[ExDubai]

Maybe Sir Stelios will take his large holding to a EU country.
Looking what happend with the share prize, he should act quickly.

[ExXB]

An analysis here (http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documents/economics/impact_of_brexit.pdf) by IATA.

[Una Due Tfc]

EZY in talks with several EU aviation authorities about relocating their company HQ to another EU state and obtaining an AOC according to Sky News.

http://news.sky.com/story/1720169/easyjet-opens-talks-over-post-brexit-hq-move

[LTNman]

The FT says they are keeping the HQ at LTNFast FT (http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/07/01/easyjet-insists-it-wont-quit-luton-after-brexit-vote/)

[Herod]

Don't forget, Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet, and after that we are still members of the EU for two years, so there will be no major change until late '18 at the earliest. I'm sure the pragmatists on both sides will work something out. It's in the EU's interest as well as ours to have some sensible framework.

[Avionista]

Herod:


As far as Brexit is concerned, I think common sense departed the scene some time ago.


Presumably, EZY could transfer all their aircraft to the Irish register and set up an office in Dublin for tax purposes. In return for EZY profits being taxed in the Irish Republic, I would have thought getting an AOC from the Irish authorities would be plain sailing.

[DaveReidUK]

Presumably, EZY could transfer all their aircraft to the Irish register and set up an office in Dublin for tax purposes.

Provided, as previously mentioned, that EZY could by then show that at least 51% of their ownership is within the EU.

In return for EZY profits being taxed in the Irish Republic, I would have thought getting an AOC from the Irish authorities would be plain sailing.Yes, by all accounts the IAA is very accommodating to budget airlines ...

[Wageslave]

I would have thought getting an AOC from the Irish authorities would be plain sailing.

Unintentionally hilarious no doubt, but clearly someone has never had dealings with the saintly IAA.

Of course 51% Eu ownership and ending up on the Irish register may well not require issue of a new AOC...

[ExXB]

It's not just EU ownership, the relevant treaties all refer to substantial ownership and effective control.

If they want to play hardball I can see some MSs objecting to an Irish, or other, designation of U2 as a community air carrier.

Look at what Virgin America had to do to prove they were American, and you'll have an idea what games can be played with this very simple sentence. McCall will not be a EU citizen, on the day. Perhaps she can be Irish ...

[5453]

Doesn't the Stelios family share takes us to 35% straight away?

[ExXB]

Does the Stelios family control easyjet?

[Rwy in Sight]

Not an English speaker here but I have a piece of paper that says I understand English so I think I understand the language of Shakespeare

So in the following text the bold part
the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union

tells me that negotiations for the day after the withdraw are part of the general discussions triggered by the Article 50.

Obviously (and boy I am thankful) PPRuNe it is not a linguistics forum so let's remain on aviation. So it seems there is an abundance of countries ready to host U2 and evenutally offer nationalities to key staff - is the current CEO also the owner of the airline as to establish nationality /ownership of the airline?

[Machrihanish]

It's not just EU ownership, the relevant treaties all refer to substantial ownership and effective control.

That's why Air Berlin would've been shut down quite some time ago.

EU isn't too sticky to its own rules where there's a gain to be made.

[WHBM]

Going back to the 1980s, prior to the liberalisation of the European aviation market, routes were dictated based on bilateral relations between different states. It allowed the big players, such as British Airways, to rule the roost in the UK airline market. It enabled, due to a lack of competition on key routes, to charge excessively high fares.

When the likes of easyJet and Ryanair started their hyper-aggressive expansions, national carriers became squeezed out on short haul and now struggle to compete and turn a profit.
Not so at all. There is a far greater BA operation nowadays between London (three different airports) and Europe, LCCs, APD, et al notwithstanding.

[ExXB]

Machrihanish - I agree absolutely. Look at DZ (EasyJet Switzerland). Still owned 51% by Swiss nationals BUT 100% controlled by a UK entity. The Swiss, to this point, have not objected - but they could. Equally any of the MSs where DZ operates could ask the Swiss to confirm ownership and control. Hardball, defiantly, but if they were do so the Swiss could not prove DZ was controlled by Swiss nationals and would be ineligible to operate routes to/from CH.

The EU HASN'T been too sticky to its own rules - agree. But if they were ...

[ExXB]

From Airline Economics ...

A statement today reads: “easyJet is lobbying the UK government and the EU to ensure the continuation of a fully liberal and deregulated aviation market within the UK and Europe. This would mean that easyJet and all European airlines can continue to operate as they do today.

“As part of easyJet’s contingency planning before the referendum we had informal discussions with a number of European aviation regulators about the establishment of an AOC [air operator certificate] in an European country to enable easyJet to fly across Europe as we do today.

“easyJet has now started a formal process to acquire an AOC.”
Although easyjet also confirmed it will not move from Luton in the UK, it is likely that a new base is on the way at speed and when announced this will cause the share price to rebound further – easyjet shares remain very cheap indeed.

[Heathrow Harry]

this is the tip of the ice berg - I'll bet every company trading in Europe is diverting staff & resources onto this sort of planning with a very high prioirty

has to have an effect on their business

[Flugplatz]

Well according to some of the less optimistic financial forecasts on the effect to the UK of Brexit, the country will be an economic basket-case in a few years anyway. So EasyJet may have to rethink their market strategy if no-one here can afford holidays or business trips.

As the country is apparently headed for economic meltdown, why would all those flights to Eastern and Southern Europe be necessary if there are no jobs to come to the UK for? According to some, the days of the UK being a job-magnet are numbered...

Flug

[RAT 5]

According to some, the days of the UK being a job-magnet are numbered...

Wasn't that the scare tactic of UKIP and others. But this is getting away from easyjet as the topic.

[Flugplatz]

I'm not taking a position here, I'm just saying that a lot of people are predicting economic disaster for the UK and that would surely have an effect on jobs and travel? So their model may need a rethink if that comes to pass. Down to Easy to gauge how that will affect their routes.

Flug

[4468]

Wherever the UK finishes up economically, the EU will be no better off. The UK is the EU's biggest customer.

Armageddon for UK = Armageddon for the EU!

[evansb]

Flights and tour bookings from Canada to the U.K are up 11% from last year this time, due to the favorable Dollar/Pound Sterling exchange rate.

Is this a bad thing?..

Canada's dollar is consistently undervalued, so as to encourage trade with the U.S.A., Mexico and Japan..and et al.

Britain! Welcome to the Western Hemisphere unhindered! (NAFTA be damned..) I think we love you! (Jeremey Clarkson excluded..)

A little dose of pre-EU nostalgia:
http://i1047.photobucket.com/albums/b477/gumpjr_bucket/Rothbury%20Cards.jpg

[Sober Lark]

If a company you worked for lived on nostalgia wouldn't you unsettled? Business looks to the future and BREXIT has forced change. In light of what has happened read again 'No Man is an Island' - poem by John Donn

[Chris2303]

If a company you worked for lived on nostalgia wouldn't you unsettled? Business looks to the future and BREXIT has forced change. In light of what has happened read again 'No Man is an Island' - poem by John Donn
Um. John Donne

[Sober Lark]

Thanks for pointing that out Chris, couldn't edit it to correct.

[Alan Baker]

How much of a hit are Airbus prepared to take on it's wings. If tariffs are imposed it has implications for Airbus pricing and it would presumably take years to relocate wing production and get it fully on stream as well as costing a fortune.

[ExDubai]

@AlanBaker: They wouldn't relocate the complete wing production. They will start a new facility somewhere else. And when those facility is up and running Broughton will die slowly.....