EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo [Archive]

Feathered

19th May 2016, 03:42

FlightRadar 24 shows the aircraft is SU-GCC, an A320-232.
Flightaware shows the aircraft is a B737-800.

Searching on tail SU-GCC in Flightaware brings up the missing flight MSR804 (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MSR804/history/20160518/2045Z/LFPG/HECA). Strangely it still shows up as a 737-800 for that flight. Website glitch or wrong type filed?

It appears that the actual missing plane is an A320. Not sure why it shows up as a B737 in Flightaware. The same flight for the last two weeks on Flightaware also shows as 737.

Airbubba

19th May 2016, 03:46

does this mean descent below the level covered by radar between two pings? that seems very fast to me.

ADS-B coverage in that area seems to be good. The last positions on the FlightAware log are from a station near LTFG airport in Turkey. I'm pretty sure they would show a descent before dropping below ADS-B range from looking at other lower traffic in that area.

Looks to me like something happened fast.

AlphaOmega

19th May 2016, 03:54

Looks like it was indeed an A320 and not a 737 as previously speculated

pattern_is_full

19th May 2016, 04:12

does this mean descent below the level covered by radar between two pings? that seems very fast to me.

Antiquated idea of how "radar" works these days. What controllers see on their screens is a transmission from the aircraft (transponder, or as Airbubba says, now ADS-B). A flip of an on/off switch in the cockpit can make a plane "disappear" instantaneously. As can anything that cuts off the transmission: loss of electrical power, loss of airframe continuity. The aircraft does not have to "descend below radar coverage."

The old-school, bouncing radio waves off aluminum, primary radar is available if desired, but if the aircraft is now a descending shower of confetti, won't help much after the fact. It will take some time to check the primary returns on tape to see what shows up there.

All we really know right now is that the aircraft abruptly ceased transmitting while still at 37000 feet.

Airbubba

19th May 2016, 04:37

A report on CNN gives the crew as two pilots, five flight attendants and three security officers.

Some airlines from the Middle East have discreetly flown into airports like CDG and LHR for decades now with armed sky marshals.

CONSO

19th May 2016, 04:44

from wsj
EgyptAir said that one of its aircraft disappeared early Thursday while flying from Paris to Cairo with 66 people aboard.
The Egyptian flag carrier said Flight MS804, which departed Paris at 11:09 p.m. local time, “disappeared from radar” at 2:45 a.m. Cairo time Thursday while at 37,000 feet, according to tweets on the airline’s verified Twitter account.
The Airbus A320 with 56 passengers, three security personnel and seven crew was last spotted over the Mediterranean Sea en route to Cairo, according to flight-tracking websites.
The airline said that a search and rescue operation was under way. The jet disappeared 10 miles inside Egyptian airspace, which has its northern border in the middle of the Mediterranean, the airline said, one of the planet’s busiest air corridors connecting Europe and the Middle East.

Airbubba

19th May 2016, 05:02

Some more information from Egyptair, translated from earlier Arabic media releases:

Noteworthy that the aircraft pilot has 6275 of flying hours including 2101 flying hours on Airbus 320.

As for the co-pilot he has 2766 flying hours. The manufacturing date of the aircraft in 2003.

Special teams from the Egyptian Armed Forces were are at site located for inspection and rescue.

log0008

19th May 2016, 05:07

Have seen at least 2 Greek airforce ERJ-135's head down towards the area, tracked by Flightradar24 but as they are only covered by MLAT coverage it is lost quite quickly

log0008

19th May 2016, 05:30

Watching playback at 00:37 (utc) there looks to be a conflict between this aircraft and UAE194 which cross both ostensibly travelling at FL 370 however looking at the speed/alt nothing appears to happen suddenly at that point.

It disappears roughly 19 minutes later over Kafr El-Zayat, despite the BBC stating it's feared to be 'in the sea'.
The flight is not actually being tracked, on playback flightradar assumes that after loss of contact flights will continue in their present direction.

SummerLightning

19th May 2016, 05:37

@susier. There are some decidedly bizarre features of the playback, including UAE194 disappearing from it - though zooming in, there appears to be no 'conflict' at all. As a regular FR24 user, I'd say that despite a previous comment, ADS-B coverage in the area is glitchy and can't be relied upon.

LBCguy

19th May 2016, 05:39

Isn't there a US carrier battle group loitering in the Eastern Med these days?

Unfortunately, no. The USS Truman is on Middle East duty, but it's currently in the Persian Gulf and not the Med.

BDiONU

19th May 2016, 05:47

Antiquated idea of how "radar" works these days. What controllers see on their screens is a transmission from the aircraft (transponder, or as Airbubba says, now ADS-B). A flip of an on/off switch in the cockpit can make a plane "disappear" instantaneously. As can anything that cuts off the transmission: loss of electrical power, loss of airframe continuity. The aircraft does not have to "descend below radar coverage."

The old-school, bouncing radio waves off aluminum, primary radar is available if desired, but if the aircraft is now a descending shower of confetti, won't help much after the fact. It will take some time to check the primary returns on tape to see what shows up there.

All we really know right now is that the aircraft abruptly ceased transmitting while still at 37000 feet.
This explanation is also incorrect. Think of surveillance in two ways, cooperative (the aircraft tells you something) and non-cooperative (you are not dependent on the aircraft telling you). ATC radar is (for safety reasons) non cooperative using either primary radar (a skin paint) or secondary radar where more than one radar detects the signal from the transponder. ADS B is a cooperative technology, the aircraft's transponder squits out the position of the aircraft and that gets picked up by a ground receiver, which is why you can do it on your home PC for a few bucks spent on an aerial. Very few ATC units utilise ADS B only.
ADS B has benefits in the amount of data which gets sent, like Mode S aircraft ID, the tail number and callsign. No need for a squawk code but not all aircraft are equipped with ADS B and you, on the ground, cannot be certain that what the aircraft is telling you (position reporting) is absolutely correct. Whilst flight radar 24 etc is an interesting toy to check on the status of where auntie Doris aeroplane is when she is coming to visit it is not what ATC (in general) are using to track aircraft.

susier

19th May 2016, 05:50

I was referring to an altitude conflict as in both aircraft travelling at 37000 ft and crossing paths. It looks as though FR can't be relied on in any case; as quite rightly stated other flights appear to vanish and to be in entirely the wrong place at various points also. Apologies for the waste of time.

Link to screen capture of perceived altitude conflict - just for the record:

http://www.pprune.org/members/429285-susier-albums-msr804-picture310-msruae.jpg

andrasz

19th May 2016, 05:59

The LKP is about 300 kilometres distant from all land, being Turkey, Egypt & Greece (Crete). It is just on the very edge of useful range for FR receivers, so it is not surprising that data is not reliable. There is nothing to learn from the FR track except that everything appeared normal until LKP, anything more pure speculation.

@SMT, if you actually use logic, you will find many more possibilities. We have several recent accidents where a perfectly flyable aeroplane just fell out of cruise level and it had nothing to do with what you suggest. And yes, there were events what you say, perhaps a few less...

chucko

19th May 2016, 06:11

What are the bounds of "Egyptian airspace"? How far offshore?

F14

19th May 2016, 06:13

Does Egypt Air have the "2-Person", cockpit rule? News is reporting DG were not being carried and CDG says security was unlikely to be compromised. Seems a bit far from the action for a SAM launch from a warship.

sitigeltfel

19th May 2016, 06:27

Sky News reporting that shipping crew in the area saw flames in the sky.

camel

19th May 2016, 06:30

At 02.26 UTC say reuters that the Egyptian military received a distress call
....if correct that is shortly after it 'disappeared '

ELT?

susier

19th May 2016, 06:30

According to the Guardian

EgyptAir flight MS804 disappears from radar between Paris and Cairo ? live updates | World news | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/may/19/egyptair-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates)

'EgyptAir says that the plane’s emergency devices (possibly an emergency locator transmitter or beacon) sent a distress signal that was received at 4.26am, some two hours after the previously stated last radar contact.'

StormyKnight

19th May 2016, 06:35

Latest Rumours....
"Distress Call heard by Miltary"
"Mayday Call issued before crash"
"Distress Call not by pilot but by equipment"
"Fireball Witnessed"
"Military search and rescue teams have received a signal from the missing plane's emergency devices"
"Greek officials investigating reports from island residents that they saw a ball of fire in the sky"

bilby_qld

19th May 2016, 06:36

What are the bounds of "Egyptian airspace"? How far offshore?
It's about 175 nautical miles from the boundary between the Cairo and Athinai FIRs at waypoint KUMBI to landfall on the Egyptian coast via UL612; So if reports that LKP was 10nm inside the Cairo FIR are correct, that's 165nm or 305km, give or take.

That position is only about 150nm from the Greek islands to the north and northwest, so a touch closer to Greece than to Egypt, but pretty much in the middle.

camel

19th May 2016, 06:45

hello CNN??

do you realise that the distress call can be either from the pilots or from the aircraft itself?????

please put someone on who knows what he is talking about ??

thanks!

Swedishflyingkiwi

19th May 2016, 07:08

I read approx 30 mins from arrival - about normal for beginning of descent. Sorry.

Kitiara

19th May 2016, 07:15

I think someone prodded him with a fragment of a clue camel

CNN's Richard Quest says the distress call, if it did come from the missing EgyptAir flight, may not have been sent manually by a pilot but could have been from some form of activated water device or crash device.

"It could be a life raft or anything that has broken off that sends out an emergency signal, it does not mean the pilots sent a Mayday," he added.

Mo122

19th May 2016, 07:29

Press release 4

An EGYPTAIR official declared that EGYPTAIR A320 aircraft in its flight number MS804 lost contact with radar above the Mediterranean Sea about 280 KM from the Egyptian seacoast at 02:30 am CLT as the flight was expected to arrive Cairo Airport at 03:15 am CLT.
EGYPTAIR confirms that there are 56 passengers in addition to 10 cabin crew members onboard the aircraft and the passengers' nationalities are as follows:
- 15 French
- 30 Egyptian
- 1 British
- 1 Belgium
- 2 Iraqis
- 1 Kuwaiti
- 1 Saudi
- 1 Sudanese
- 1 Chadian
- 1 Portuguese
- 1 Algerian
- 1 Canadian

EGYPTAIR crisis center is following up with the concerned authorities and EGYPTAIR will issue any additional information once available.
EGYPTAIR has hosted the passengers' families near to Cairo Airport and has provided doctors, translators and all the necessary services to the passengers' family members during their stay at Cairo Airport.

ThinkRate

19th May 2016, 07:47

According to Greek media (roughly translated by me):

"There was a normal radio call above KEA waypoint between the flight and Athens ACC at approx 0300am LT. The next call was due 20 minutes later, prior to exiting Athens FIR and handoff to Egypt. The plane never responded to repeated ATC calls. The plane was still visible on radar. The plane was then lost from radar approx 7nm after entering the Egyptian FIR just south of KUMBI. Athens asked military radar whether they were tracking the aircraft. They were not. Athens raised SAR and notified Egypt. A C130, a helicopter and an early-warning aircraft were scrambled as well as a frigate (HNS Nikiforos Fokas) following reports from the captain of a merchant vessel that he saw a "flash" in the sky 130nm south of the island of Karpathos."

sitigeltfel

19th May 2016, 07:58

The Egyptian military has denied a report from EgyptAir that a distress signal was sent by the plane.EgyptAir flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo disappears from radar - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36309492)

NiclasB

19th May 2016, 08:02

This link will show you the marine traffic in the approximate area.

AIS Vessel Tracking - AIS Positions Maps | AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:30/centery:33/zoom:11)

Pace

19th May 2016, 08:16

Sadly although the position will be accurately fixed is that as reported today it has gone down in the deepest part of the Mediterranean

Deepest point in Mediterranean Sea 5267 metres (17280 feet) Calypso Deep, Ionian Basin, 45 miles SW of Pylos, Greece south of there is also deep

So we will be back to difficulties reaching the wreckage and the black box

beamender99

19th May 2016, 08:20

From another forum

Ships diverted to search area approx 200km due N of Alexandria
AIS Vessel Tracking - AIS Positions Maps | AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:152380/zoom:10)

If you check the cluster of ships close to the SofiaExpress you will find one that is stationary (Oceanus. If you use the Track option you will find that the closest ships have all change course significantly to converge towards where Oceanus is currently stationary.

main_dog

19th May 2016, 08:24

French media reporting wreckage found off Karpathos... :-(

RTM Boy

19th May 2016, 08:26

Given the altitude and airspeed at the point of disappearence the plane, or parts of it, will likely be quite some distance south east of the last know location, which could be in shallower parts of the Med.

Discarding the usual creative but pointless theories, all we know with any degree of certainty is that the plane disappeared suddenly at cruising altitude (or thereabouts) having just entered Egyptian airspace. The rapidity of the event suggests some kind of very sudden 'mechanical' failure - cause unknown. Realistically there are only two broad possibilities; explosive device or a sudden mechanical/structural/engine-type failure.

For some reason I can't help feeling that there is some significance in whatever happened did so just as the flight entered Egyptian airspace.

Pace

19th May 2016, 08:28

whatever happened did so just as the flight entered Egyptian airspace.

Or on initialising descent ?

M-ONGO

19th May 2016, 08:33

Highly improbable Pace, as the Greek's have been reported to say that they didn't answer calls to contact Cairo approaching the FIR boundary.

HeartyMeatballs

19th May 2016, 08:34

I do not think there's any significance of it being inside of Egyptian airspace. If it was sabotage then how would the perpetrator know that they were in the Egyptian FIR?

Lord Farringdon

19th May 2016, 08:41

If you look at the Fightaware plots for previous days, there is consistency in the data. Noteably, there is ADS-B coverage for the entire sector...for previous flights. So ADS-B coverage is complete and the flight hasn't gone into a ADS-B 'blindspot' and then failed to come out again. It has just stopped transmitting ADS-B data. From then on Flightaware asesses it's expected position unless it receives further real data from the aircraft, which in this case it never did.

RiSq

19th May 2016, 08:47

Everything so far would point to sabotage as the obvious - but as we know that isn't always the case. However, it if were to be I doubt the Egyptian airspace is a direct corrolation to this as the only way such a system would work would be on a GPS reliant system. If it is sabotage, it's more likely based on a timer or an altitude as we've seen previously - was the aircraft beginning to descend?

It may have been timed to occur based on a calculation when it entered said airspace but not directly related to it entering said airspace, if that makes sense.

Regardless, it raises concerns about security at CDG if it was the case. Was the aircraft on the ground long at CDG? The time of this is also important - just as the West begins it's holiday "Season" which would have substantial consequences for Egypt's already severely damaged tourism industry.

Tankertrashnav

19th May 2016, 08:52

Probably not relevant to the incident itself, but there is some confusion here between Egyptian airspace and the Egyptian FIR. In most cases FIR's will extend well beyond the generally agreed 12nms which is the extent of territorial airspace, and beyond that limit is international airspace. I'm assuming most on here already know that, but it's as well to use the correct terminology.

WeeWinkyWilly

19th May 2016, 09:09

Lord Farringdon

19th May 2016, 09:11

Just like Metrojet 9268. In that case a US infrared satellite apparently detected a heat flash which could have been either an exploding fuel tank or a bomb explosion. It seems the satellite imagery also ruled out a missile attack. So, it will be interesting to see what they come up with this time.

mackoi

19th May 2016, 09:15

In that case a US infrared satellite apparently detected a heat flash which could have been either an exploding fuel tank or a bomb explosion.

Have you got any source for this statement?

Stuff

19th May 2016, 09:21

Have you got any source for this statement?

Metrojet Flight 9268: U.S. satellite imagery detected heat around jet before crash - World - CBC News (http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-metrojet-crash-identification-1.3301089)

ZOOKER

19th May 2016, 09:26

A note on the aeronautical geography,
UL612 runs between SITIA VOR, (located at the SE end of Crete), and BALTIM VOR, (located on the coast, mid-way between Alexandria and Port Said). BALTIM is 70nm NNW of HECA.
Waypoint KUMBI is on UL612, at the boundary with Athinai (LGGG), and Cairo (HECC), FIRs, 151nm SE of SATIA VOR. It is 248nm NW of HECA.

gulliBell

19th May 2016, 09:27

@chucko It was 16km into Egyptian airspace, 280KM from the Egyptian coast.

Jezinho

19th May 2016, 09:46

PPrune should perhaps not allow a thread to start on a crash incident until 48 hours after the event. It might stop the torrent of morbid drivel that we seem to get when an incident is first reported. From the prize to see who can start the thread to those suggesting causes when the aircraft hasn't even been confirmed as down - it's like a plane-spotters' morbid conspiracy-fest. It's notable how few comments immediately after a 'crash' becomes news seem to come from professional pilots. Presumably because they wait for the acts to emerge before spouting forth.

aerodub

19th May 2016, 09:46

Greek media report that the airbus 320 had fallend vertically from 37000 ft to 9000 ft, and then a few seconds later it disappeared from radars.
src:EgyptAir: ?? ?????????? ?????? «??????????» ??? ?? 37.000 ??? 9.000 ????? (http://www.protothema.gr/world/article/579477/to-hameno-aeroskafos-tis-egyptair-epefte-katakorufa-apo-ta-37000-sta-9000-podia/)

Anvaldra

19th May 2016, 09:48

ThinkRate

19th May 2016, 09:53

Greek Media (http://en.protothema.gr/egyptair-pilot-did-not-respond-to-our-radio-calls-hellenic-civil-aviation-governor-says/)

The Governor of Hellenic Civil Aviation, Konstantinos Litzerakos, described the moments before the EgyptAir aircraft disappeared from radar.
“According to standard practice, when an aircraft enters another FIR, air traffic controllers of the previous FIR contact the pilot to inform him that he will communicate with the traffic controllers of the next FIR. That’s what our traffic controllers did, but the pilot of EgyptAir did not respond” Mr. Litzerakos said.
“The traffic controller continued calling the pilot, but with no result. At 3:29 and when the aircraft was flying in Cairo’s FIR the aircraft disappeared from radar, “he said adding: “We notified the Egyptian authorities, they did not know anything”.
Traffic controller spoke to the pilot over the island of Kea, in what was thought to be the last broadcast from the aircraft, but “The pilot did not mention any problems,” Mr. Litzerakos said.

ETOPS

19th May 2016, 09:58

That’s what our traffic controllers did, but the pilot of EgyptAir did not respond

Normal for that route at that point - well known "dead spot" lasting for about 10 minutes.

AreOut

19th May 2016, 09:58

GeeRam

19th May 2016, 09:59

Timer device ex Cairo (in wheel-well IED) that gets it through Paris and after departure CDG, completes the circuit to the barometric device that then initiates on descent Cairo. Not rocket science at all - but diverts attention to a security problem at Charles de Gaulle airport (when it's really a Cairo-based initiative and perp).

Likely wasn't ex-Cairo before CDG, flightradar24 has SU-GCC visiting Tunis & Asmara in Eritrea on May 18 before flying the return from Paris to Cairo.......but your theory is therefore still very feasible.

Hotel Tango

19th May 2016, 10:00

What was the time lapse from the frequency change r/t transmission by Greek ATC and the eventual radar disappearance at 03:29?

DaveReidUK

19th May 2016, 10:03

If you look at the Flightaware plots for previous days, there is consistency in the data. Noteably, there is ADS-B coverage for the entire sector...for previous flights. So ADS-B coverage is complete and the flight hasn't gone into a ADS-B 'blindspot' and then failed to come out again.

An ADS-B "blindspot" in this context simply means that there isn't an enthusiast with a receiver within range of the flight, capturing data for Flightaware.

Likewise, the fact that previous days' plots are shown as continuous doesn't mean continuous data capture, all the enthusiast ADS-B networks use interpolation/extrapolation to some extent.

To put it another way, the precise point at which today's flight suffered a catastrophe can't be inferred with any certainty from what has been published by the flight tracking networks.

Aerospace101

19th May 2016, 10:04

Lots of "weather was fine" comments in press etc. Actually on my forecast charts I can see a 110kts jet stream FL350 flowing west to east, exactly at the location of lost contact.

ORAC

19th May 2016, 10:05

Podcast, the SBIRS satellites are designed to detect an ICBM launch and, coincidently, can sometimes detect the flash of an explosion in the upper atmosphere - if one of the 5 LEO birds is over the right area. As far as I am aware, nobody is suggesting MH370 exploded.

FlightDream111

19th May 2016, 10:07

greek-freak

19th May 2016, 10:12

Did Greek authorities say anything about when exactly they identified that there was a problem. I vaguely remember that following the Helios accident in Athens, internal ATC procedures were revised or should be revised according to the recommendations of the accident report such as to act substantially more quickly in case of loss of radio contact.

Eaglebaby

19th May 2016, 10:18

A German containership is currently helping in the search operation.

ZOOKER

19th May 2016, 10:20

I wonder what the primary and secondary radar coverage is like in the KUMBI area, given that it is 151nm from Crete and about 160nm from the nearest point on the coast of Egypt?

Chronus

19th May 2016, 10:24

High probability of floating debris to be found before the day is out. More will be known then.

fg32

19th May 2016, 10:29

PPrune should perhaps not allow a thread to start on a crash incident until 48 hours after the event. It might stop the ....
The named "rumour section" of a named "rumour network". And yet still the eternal complaints against the presence of rumour. Laughable if not so tedious, and space-wasting. Rather like this.

flash8

19th May 2016, 10:32

Hmm, an Airbus disappearing suddenly during cruise? Where have I seen this before?

Imagine a jigsaw puzzle with six pieces.

1. Egyptair.
2. In the Cruise with no abnormalities.
3. WX good.
4. France/Egypt.
5. ISIL Threats towards Egyptians/Westerners.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out the likely sixth piece. It also doesn't take a genius to know the Egyptians will deny it till they are blue in the face (much form in the area).

Sandlandman

19th May 2016, 10:49

Likely wasn't ex-Cairo before CDG, flightradar24 has SU-GCC visiting Tunis & Asmara in Eritrea on May 18 before flying the return from Paris to Cairo.......but your theory is therefore still very feasible.
Of course it was Ex-Cairo before CDG, it's an Egyptair aircraft ! They don't have rights to fly Asmara - Tunis - Paris - Cairo. When they say it had been to Tunis and Asmara before this flight I think there's an assumption of a degree of understanding that what is meant is the aircraft flew from Cairo to Asmara and back, then Cairo - Tunis and back then to Paris and was on the return leg to it's home base when it disappeared.

Serenity

19th May 2016, 11:00

Surely the Americans have some serious radar coverage in that end of the Mediterranean???

LandIT

19th May 2016, 11:03

The BBC has a good graphic of its immediately previous flights...

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/400/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2016/5/19/4ea488c9-6aa7-4e6b-8c86-95ff67dd70f5.png

crewmeal

19th May 2016, 11:10

A quote from Frank Gardner - the BBC's security correspondent:-

There were no distress calls that we know of, which would imply that something sudden and catastrophic took place that gave the crew no time to put out a distress call. This is 2016 - planes don't just fall out of the sky. The suspicion is that it's an act of terrorism of some form, which means was it shot down or was a bomb put on board, if that is the case.

I trust his words more than most!

Blake777

19th May 2016, 11:18

Greek Defence Minister saying plane made "sharp turns and a descent" before disappearing.

ORAC

19th May 2016, 11:21

Sky report Greek defence minister saying it made a 90 degree left turn, followed by a reversal and a 360 degree right turn before leaving radar cover. Presumably a primary radar report from AD radar as it doesn't show on ADSB. Presumably indicating whatever happened resulted in either loss of electrical power to the ADSB or someone in the cockpit turning it off.

vmandr

19th May 2016, 11:27

@Zooker

KARPATHOS 352900N 0271000E MSSR has a nominal 200+ nm range, so theoretically, covers an area beyond LGGG UIR and Karpathos-KUMBI is 101 nm.

FE Hoppy

19th May 2016, 11:31

Checkboard

19th May 2016, 11:44

There were no distress calls that we know of, which would imply that something sudden and catastrophic took place that gave the crew no time to put out a distress call. This is 2016 - planes don't just fall out of the sky.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_Express_Flight_2574
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia_AirAsia_Flight_8501

.. plenty of other explanations, sadly.

Less Hair

19th May 2016, 11:53

True that UK and Russia have cancelled all their flights to Egypt for the time being due to security concerns?

Technet101

19th May 2016, 11:59

I note the Oceanus bulk carrier is stll in the area and from its track it is stopping regularly. This vessel has four deck cranes and would be perfect to recover any floating debris regardless of size and has deck hatches to place anything recovered on to.

AIS Vessel Tracking - AIS Positions Maps | AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:2273135/zoom:10)

Alber Ratman

19th May 2016, 11:59

Speculation on this is soul destroying. So much rubbish being banded about that people will believe that will be proven to be complete codswallop when the evidence is found and interpreted.

Mo122

19th May 2016, 12:00

On board maersk ahram search and rescue area
http://s32.postimg.org/x7r20o81t/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/x7r20o81t/)

http://s32.postimg.org/tnma8iuv5/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/tnma8iuv5/)

RTM Boy

19th May 2016, 12:03

Radar plots are not milimeter accurate - apparent sharp movements could simply indicate sections of the aircraft being out of control during or following a very rapid break-up. No conclusions can be drawn about it being anything to do with the cockpit crew.

jolihokistix

19th May 2016, 12:05

rideforever, give this thing a little more time to unravel. We'll get there eventually.

If we stick with the known facts as they come in, then the cone of speculation can be advanced and restricted. At the moment there are so many possible reasons for a plane to describe such uncharacteristic movements, that percentages and likelihoods are going to vary radically with each commentator here.

Volume

19th May 2016, 12:16

there are so many possible reasons for a plane to describe such uncharacteristic movementsMost probable reason for such data is trying to draw a curve through random, scattered points created by pieces of debris flashin up on the radar on their way down...

xollob

19th May 2016, 12:23

Someone mentioned "kumbi" earlier.... Oh how I don't miss the nightmare that is the terrible RT by the Egyptians in this area, if they managed to get a call out of any nature odds are Egyptian RT will have ignored it or someone else stepped on it, Egyptian RT has IMHO been an accident waiting to happen for some time, this may not be attributable in this incident but I pity and investigators listing to Egyptian RT tapes, it must be a form of torture !

Will be interesting to see if once they checked in if they were given any clearance to change level, as in the barometric change theory posted earlier.

Anvaldra

19th May 2016, 12:26

True that UK and Russia have cancelled all their flights to Egypt for the time being due to security concerns?
Russia - yes, since Metrojet crash

mockingjay

19th May 2016, 12:30

I'm quite convinced that there was no fireball. History is littered with examples of people seeing flames when they never did. In fact, a rig worker claimed to have seen a fireball in the sky when MH370 went missing when in fact the plane was hundred of miles away. When the track of the jet proved it was nowhere near, the fireball sightings were quickly forgotten.

The video I have seen is clearly space junk burning up.

My thoughts go out to those involved. Whilst it's easy to jump to the terrorism or deliberate crashing, recent history shows that several fully serviceable planes (both Airbus and Boeing before anyone goes down that route) have come to harm due to handling issues.

Meanwhile 12 hours in and there's still no sign of it. Not acceptable in 2016!

Nemrytter

19th May 2016, 12:33

I'm quite convinced that there was no fireball. Not seen the video but three satellites passed overhead within 20 minutes of the time when it's reported that contact was lost. None of them see fireballs, smoke trails or anything like that.

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2016, 12:35

This is 2016 - planes don't just fall out of the sky. Mr Gardner may be jumping the gun a bit in that 0600 comment/twitter quote(??) (http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-36328976), but he is cited with a more measured analysis that gets at security and "we don't know yet." (I'll side with mockingjay on "fireball?" with MH370 as a reference).
EgyptAir flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo crashed - Hollande - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36309492)

I noted on the BBC link that included the sound byte that the French authorities are (reportedly) already investigating the ground crew at CDG.

Sadly, contra the little quote, planes do sometimes "just fall out of the sky." In the not too distant past ... AF 447(upset) Air Indonesia(upset) , Air Algerie(upset), Germanwings(Upset FO, and it flew down rather than fell), Metrojet(bomb?) and so on. But in the larger sense Mr Gardner is correct. Flying is still a very safe way to travel and planes generally don't just fall out of the sky. Embedded in that little bon mot is a core point -- there's a reason for the rare and tragic events like this. Confident that the reason will be found in due course. I heard about this crash on the radio this morning ... plane missing between Paris and Cairo ... seen descending by Greek radar ... (I thought, jumping to a conclusion, shame on me, A320? OCF?) ... later heard it was A320 ... a bit later logged on to PPruNe to see what folks have so far. Thanks for realigning my brain, all and sundry: look at the conclusion I jumped to from a brief radio report? :=

Regarding the posts from folks covering maritime search efforts: thank you.

Lord Farringdon

19th May 2016, 12:38

Originally Posted by DavidReidUK
An ADS-B "blindspot" in this context simply means that there isn't an enthusiast with a receiver within range of the flight, capturing data for Flightaware.

Likewise, the fact that previous days' plots are shown as continuous doesn't mean continuous data capture, all the enthusiast ADS-B networks use interpolation/extrapolation to some extent.

To put it another way, the precise point at which today's flight suffered a catastrophe can't be inferred with any certainty from what has been published by the flight tracking networks.

I don't entirely disagree however, the ADS-B data being received before and after the incident position in the days before the incident are almost entirely from one site either near or on LTFG Gazipasa-Alanya airport on the SW Coast of Turkey. This site is consistently recording ranges of up 260nm which is a good range for ADS-B receivers and easily covers out to the LKP. So in fact there is no blind spot and the flightpath is consistently covered by the LTFG Rx. I agree a precise point cannot be inferred by this especially since there was almost three minutes from the last transmission from the aircraft until Flightawre software began posting estimated positions but, I suggest the Flightaware position is very close.

Suggestions that ADS-B coverage is poor, that its flakey and that it cannot be relied upon are misleading. ADS-B is an important part of the ATC system as another poster has pointed out, but in terms of enthusiast coverage that could be correct except in this case LTFG has this flight route well covered.

MSR804 did not land at its destination. LTFG suddenly stopped tracking. I'm saying there is a very strong correlation between these two events and that the final Flightaware data while not precise, is close.

Mo122

19th May 2016, 12:43

Debris found.
http://s32.postimg.org/z157vnu81/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/z157vnu81/)

http://s32.postimg.org/g7jeynw01/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/g7jeynw01/)

http://s32.postimg.org/y7sm31o75/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/y7sm31o75/)

PlaneMass

19th May 2016, 12:47

Speculation on this is soul destroying. So much rubbish being banded about that people will believe that will be proven to be complete codswallop when the evidence is found and interpreted.
Just like every other major airliner crash, then. Deep breaths...

notapilot15

19th May 2016, 12:48

Did this happen in Egyptian SAR region. If so, its going to be all the more difficult to get any accurate information.

susier

19th May 2016, 12:51

Mo122, do you have a source for this information please? That looks like a liferaft rather than debris.

Edit: According to Twitter, both Greek television and SKy news are reporting debris has been found.

jolihokistix

19th May 2016, 12:53

Mo122, sources please.

DaveReidUK

19th May 2016, 12:54

The head of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has said that the EgyptAir crash was "in all likelihood" a terrorist act, according to the privately-owned Interfax news agency.

"In all likelihood, this is a terrorist act, as a result of which 66 citizens of various states have been killed," Alexander Bortnikov was quoted as saying.

Quote from BBC Monitoring: EgyptAir Flight MS804 latest updates - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36328976)

A0283

19th May 2016, 12:55

Saw only 2 ships that made a 90 degree turn and are around 5 knots. The Oceanic and the Jork. Other ships were still 'cruising' through the area though at 10-20 knots. Also no 'special' vessels apparently on their way to the area. Or these have shut down their 'transponders'. Have not seen a restricted area yet. Based on this only, you would not even be able to say that any search was going on.

Best information till now appears to come from the translations of Greek officals statements by ThinkRate (thanks for those, hope you post some more).

Interesting to see the 'usual' statements about fire balls, satellites that should have spotted something, and all-seeing radars.

FR24 gets a lot of criticism, but at this stage it is all the general audience has. You have to be very careful, as some point out, with the interpretation of such data. First is that you have to separate received data from extrapolated data. And also the data it self might be suspect. A few weeks ago i was following a flight over the Java Sea on FR24 which suddenly jumped over to the Indian Ocean ! and took quite a few minutes to jump back. Next to that there are many gaps in coverage. But still, it is much better than nothing.

wabulabantu

19th May 2016, 12:57

@LBCI_News_EN
Missing #Egyptair aircraft debris found south of #Greek island of Karpathos in southern Mediterranean - Greek state TV

ThinkRate

19th May 2016, 13:02

Greek state television now reporting that Greek planes taking part in the SAR have spotted debris in the form of "large orange chunks" that are thought to belong to the missing plane. Similar reports are coming from the Greek SAR Coordination Center and the Hellenic Coastguard. The MOD has not yet confirmed the report.

Edited to include Hellenic CAA statement, which just confirms times and actions (all times local, Greek local time is UTC+3):
0224: entry into Athinai FIR
0248: handoff to next Athinai sector and clearance for exit point. The pilot was cheerful and thanked ATC in Greek.
0327: ACC tries to contact the plane for handoff information to Cairo ACC. Plane non-responsive, call is repeated on emergency freq.
0329: Plane crosses the FIR exit point
032940: Plane trace lost, approx 7nm SSE of KUMBI, within Cairo FIR. Military radar raised, negative return.
0345: SAR activated, Cairo notified.

andrasz

19th May 2016, 13:03

If I understood correctly, Mo122 is on board Maersk Ahram in the search area, and the photos are his. The only poster here who has access to authentic and reliable information. Thanks Mo for sharing.

Mo122

19th May 2016, 13:04

Sources captain on board ahram maersk

20milesout

19th May 2016, 13:06

Thank you very much, Mr. Mo, your information is highly appreciated.

Mo122

19th May 2016, 13:08

Updates from same source progress of s&r
http://s32.postimg.org/imw3pjjyd/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
photo hosting sites (http://postimage.org/)

Mo122

19th May 2016, 13:14

No am not on board any vessel , am connected through maersk ahram captain and the photos and updates are his. I am just sharing the info

BillS

19th May 2016, 13:14

OTH radar at LCRA would cover area and Troodos would listen. I note AAIB have offered assistance to Egypt
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/aaib-offers-assistance-egyptair-flight-ms804

PiggyBack

19th May 2016, 13:15

We had real-time telemetry of the moon landing and 47 years ago, right upto the moment of (soft) impact with the lunar surface.

And we sit here looking at text from the news channels to try to find out what hapenned more than 5 hours ago.

The technology is there, has been discussed to death. It's not a problem with volume of data either, as has been discussed and agreed on this forum.
I do not normally comment at such an early stage because it is speculative and ghoolish but what possible benefit would realtime telemetry bring in this situation? The motivation is clearly morbid curiosity rather than safety because in this as in almost all cases the data recorders will be recovered and any lessons that can be learned will be. However even morbid curiosity woudl almost certainly not be satisfied as in all probability the telemetry broadcast would simply have halted when whatever occured occurred.

The reality is that realtime telemetry would need to be backed up by data recorders to ensure data communications problems did not result in lost data. The safety value is only in those cases where the recorders cannot be recovered which is rare. Rather than safety it is the cost of searching for and recovering data recorders that needs to be balanced against the cost of implementing such a system. If it existed the data should not in any case be released until after an accident investigation.

edmundronald

19th May 2016, 13:34

Airbubba

19th May 2016, 13:35

I don't entirely disagree however, the ADS-B data being received before and after the incident position in the days before the incident are almost entirely from one site either near or on LTFG Gazipasa-Alanya airport on the SW Coast of Turkey. This site is consistently recording ranges of up 260nm which is a good range for ADS-B receivers and easily covers out to the LKP. So in fact there is no blind spot and the flightpath is consistently covered by the LTFG Rx. I agree a precise point cannot be inferred by this especially since there was almost three minutes from the last transmission from the aircraft until Flightawre software began posting estimated positions but, I suggest the Flightaware position is very close.

It appears that the search area details available at the present are in good agreement with the last positions on the ADS-B data in this FlightAware log:

Flight Track Log MSR804 18-May-2016 CDG / LFPG - CAI / HECA FlightAware (http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MSR804/history/20160518/2045Z/LFPG/HECA/tracklog)

Flightradar24, FlightAware, and RadarBox24 should all have more detailed ADS-B data on their servers.

Furia

19th May 2016, 13:37

I am surely not going to speculate about the actual cause of this tragedy but I have seen several posts saying that it must be somethig terrorist related because airliners do not drop out of the sky like this.
Fact is they do, last years we have had some airliners down due pilot error, malfunctions, weather.... So a terrorist atack is just a possibility among other.
With the information avalaible for this accident, I have just remebered the Indonesia Air Asia A-320 that crashed on the sea after droping from its cruising altitude of FL320 due a combiation of mecanical troubles and pilot error.
Accident Report (http://kemhubri.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_aviation/baru/Final%20Report%20PK-AXC.pdf)
I do not mean this accident may have anything with todays tragedy but I would like to point out that other causes other than terrorism could be involved. It has happened before

A0283

19th May 2016, 13:44

vmandr,

clear,

important i think to keep in mind that there are such jumps ... and other 'anomalies' that are related to the tool,

i dont know the extrapolation algorithm used by FR24... next to jumps there are also very significant turns that you would not expect ... if you look at the North Atlantic for example, you can see a plane symbol ('inside' the purple line, so not on a changeover point from a "loss of coverage ---- line" to a "solid purple line") ... change heading in an instant from say 270 to 0 and shortly thereafter to 180 before turning to 265 ...

so be careful with interpretation is the message,

Feathered

19th May 2016, 13:45

Likely wasn't ex-Cairo before CDG, flightradar24 has SU-GCC visiting Tunis & Asmara in Eritrea on May 18 before flying the return from Paris to Cairo.......but your theory is therefore still very feasible.

According to Flightaware, the accident aircraft flew to CDG/LFPG direct from Cairo prior to the last flight.

MSR803 departed Cairo 1727, arrived Roissy 2153.

There was a round trip to Tunis from Cairo prior to this.

tubby linton

19th May 2016, 13:57

Before an item is associated with the missing aircraft it is probably worth considering the amount of debris floating in the Mediterranean from the many migrant vessels that have sunk in the area.

mockingjay

19th May 2016, 13:58

I very much doubt it. FL370 will be well below RECMAX toward the end of a flight with little fuel and a poor load. Besides high speed protection would have kicked in and even if they were in alternate law there's still a speed stability that would have lessened the likelihood of a repeat. A Jetstream could easily cause an upset but not a catastrophic loss of the hull.

Capry

19th May 2016, 13:58

If there was indeed an explosive device on board, then it is likely to be similar to the one onboard Metrojet, which means quite simple device and not necessarily accurate.

Maybe it was just put there in Cairo and supposed to detonate after takeoff or later in that flight and just... didn't.

From a political standpoint I'd say that the impact for Egypt would be the same if the plane had crashed near France, given it is an Egyptian flight.

It would simply have added a political impact in France, just like metrojet which point was to destroy Egyptian tourism & to adress a political message to Russia. But again, endless speculation.

A0283

19th May 2016, 13:59

UK HMS Defender is in the area now close to the Maersk Ahram and other vessels. Maybe this is the start of defining and outlining a search area.

Surprising that speeds are between say 5-16 knots ... no vessels at 0 knots yet.

Have to note that at this stage i have no information about what these vessels are searching for. There is more going on in the Med at the moment.

paulmoscow

19th May 2016, 14:01

From CNN:

The cause behind the disappearance of EgyptAir Flight 804 is more likely to be terrorism than a technical issue, Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister Sharif Fathi said.

"We do not deny there is a possibility of terrorism or deny the possibility of technical fault," Fathi said at a Cairo news conference.

crippen

19th May 2016, 14:01

Arabic broadcaster Al Arabiya Tweeted that two bodies were seen floating in the search area.

EgyptAir flight MS804 missing: live updates as bodies and wreckage found after plane vanishes with 66 on board - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/egyptair-flight-ms804-missing-live-8003059)

JammedStab

19th May 2016, 14:11

I do not think there's any significance of it being inside of Egyptian airspace. If it was sabotage then how would the perpetrator know that they were in the Egyptian FIR?
Actually, there is. The Egyptians have proven very clearly with the 767 flight out of New York and the Russian flight earlier this year that they cannot be trusted to tell the truth about the cause of an accident.

A0283

19th May 2016, 14:14

A number of vessels in the area were increasing speed to 11 knots.
As far as i know there are no photos in the public domain now that show identified aircraft components.

andrasz

19th May 2016, 14:18

98% vs 02%

I don't know how you came to this conclusion (or the earlier poster), the Egyptian minister simply stated the obvious without putting a bias in favor of either. If we look at the history of accidents over the past few years involving a rapid descent from cruise without any pre-warning, I believe pilot induced loss of control is by far the leading cause, followed by deliberate pilot action, terrorism coming third. Obviously none of them can be discounted at this stage, and this is exactly what Fathi said.

If I remember correctly, the first 50 pages of the Metrojet crash thread were filled with speculation on the various possible failure modes of the HS, until grim reality started to set in.

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2016, 14:24

It *is* interesting that all these military air-surveillance radars and satellite-born radars and optical systems never have anything to say about planes that go down, at least in time to help S&R. AF-447 and MH-370 were a real disappointment in that regard.How is that interesting?
The military radars had info on MH370 (it was found in due course) but people didn't manage to put two and two together ... and initial SAR effort was victim of a red herring.
What mil radar need is there for where AF447 went down? (Note that the satellite ACARS info did provide some information early on). Why would a mil satellite be looking at that spot when AF447 went down?

In this current case, it looks like there was a fairly quick response from the Greek defense side
(all times local, Greek local time is UTC+3):
0224: entry into Athinai FIR
0248: handoff to next Athinai sector and clearance for exit point. The pilot was cheerful and thanked ATC in Greek.
0327: ACC tries to contact the plane for handoff information to Cairo ACC. Plane non-responsive, call is repeated on emergency freq.
0329: Plane crosses the FIR exit point
032940: Plane trace lost, approx 7nm SSE of KUMBI, within Cairo FIR. Military radar raised, negative return.
0345: SAR activated, Cairo notified. so I'd like to know: what's your beef?

There's an entire reporting and tracking structure in place for Commercial air. The military stuff is built for a different purpose, not as a back up to the civil system, even though sometimes it can be helpful when called up to supplement the existent civil structure. (If that report is from solid info, it looks like the Greek military radar was helpful to me).

Nemrytter

19th May 2016, 14:27

It *is* interesting that all these military air-surveillance radars and satellite-born radars and optical systems never have anything to say about planes that go down, at least in time to help S&R.The site of the Swiftair flight 5017 crash was found via satellite within a few hours of it going down, unfortunately it took some time for anyone to actually go look there.

Kulverstukas

19th May 2016, 14:37

Did we ever establish how the Russian Metrojet device was detonated, is it possible we have the same situation here,?

We even still - half a year after incident - don't have any positive conclusion from Egyptians led investigation, no officially presented case (or versions). Also Russian aviation and security authority still flying back and forth, checking "improvements" in Egypt airport security... (On the other hands, why bothers if they not officially agreed that it was terrorist act?).

Mo122

19th May 2016, 14:38

More images
http://s32.postimg.org/ybjgd9xoh/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/ybjgd9xoh/)

http://s32.postimg.org/jlym8rvep/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/jlym8rvep/)

http://s32.postimg.org/6qqmm0g5d/image.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/6qqmm0g5d/)

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2016, 14:41

Another A320 down with the same pattern, no distress, no radio, no calling the next station. What if the construction does have a hidden flaw, will they confess or call it terrorism? By "Construction" are you referring to design (as in FBW systems) or structural systems? The Air Indonesia A320 losss, and the AF 447(A330) loss have similar FBW systems (if not identical), but your using the term "construction" has me puzzled. I don't see a history of A320's having high altitude structural failures (unlike the DeHavilland Comet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Havilland_Comet)of yore).

To "call it terrorism" there will first have to be certain evidence when the CVR and FDR are recovered. I have faith that those will be found and recovered. There's a small enough datum, and the location is not too far from where suitably equipped vessels can begin an underwater search for those "pings" that were so hard to find for MH370.
We can't yet know how many nations' submarines may be either in the area or on their way to assist in the acoustic search for the pings from those recorders ... but I suspect numerous nations have already offered that assistance.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/egyptair-flight-ms804-missing-live-8003059
Last point, the Mirror seems to have published a belated PIREP for the area near this lost contact:
A British pilot who he flew through the same area as the missing plane yesterday said “the weather was perfect”.

Alan Carter told the BBC: “I was captain of my Boeing 747 from Milan to Jeddah, flying on the same rout - we were flying at 39,000 ft, EgyptAir at 37,000 ft. “All air traffic communication systems were operating normally. It was a quiet time - I spoke to Athens radar and remarked how quiet it was, and was told there were only five aircraft in the airspace. Communications with Cairo radar were all normal too.”

fa2fi

19th May 2016, 14:42

When you say 'another A320 down with the same pattern', you're absolutely correct. No distress calls and a sudden end.

MetroJet - was blown up
GermanWings - was deliberately crashed
AirAsia - a complex incident but reailting in a LOCi.

Three very different accidents. None which would suggest to me there's a hidden flaw.

PiggyBack

19th May 2016, 14:46

Another A320 down with the same pattern, no distress, no radio, no calling the next station. What if the construction does have a hidden flaw, will they confess or call it terrorism?
No axe to grind at all.

It averages 14 million hours per accident and there are more than 3000 in service so whatever is the cause the chance that there is a conspirancy to hide a significant design flaw is as close to zero as to be indistinguishable.

Kahane

19th May 2016, 15:06

0224: entry into Athinai FIR
0248: handoff to next Athinai sector and clearance for exit point. The pilot was cheerful and thanked ATC in Greek.
0327: ACC tries to contact the plane for handoff information to Cairo ACC. Plane non-responsive, call is repeated on emergency freq.
0329: Plane crosses the FIR exit point
032940: Plane trace lost, approx 7nm SSE of KUMBI, within Cairo FIR. Military radar raised, negative return.
0345: SAR activated, Cairo notified.

Coincident with what the French press has published (French local time here):

<li class="SL_C_42861773_4">23 h 09 : le vol MS804 quitte le terminal aéroportuaire Paris-Charles-de-Gaulle et décolle dix minutes plus tard. Il est prévu qu'il atterrisse au Caire à 3 h 15.<li class="SL_C_42861773_5 Edit Creator42861773">Vers 1 h 50 : le pilote de l'avion est en contact avec un contrôleur aérien grec, alors que l'appareil se trouve au-dessus de l'île de Kéa. Le pilote n'indique alors aucun problème, rapporte l'aviation civile grecque.
<li class="SL_C_42861773_10 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 26 : l'avion s'apprête à sortir de l'espace aérien grec en volant à 37 000 pieds. Le contrôleur grec tente de contacter le pilote, comme l’exige la réglementation, pour lui signaler qu'il s'apprête à rentrer dans l'espace aérien égyptien, sans succès. <li class="SL_C_42861773_17_31637068 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 29 : l'appareil est entré dans l'espace aérien égyptien. Le pilote ne répond pas aux communications du contrôleur.<li class="SL_C_42861773_45_83144587 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 37 : l'appareil effectue deux virages brutaux (à 90° sur la gauche puis de 360° sur la droite) et chute de 22 000 pieds selon le ministre de la défense grec.<li class="SL_C_42861773_73_44826289 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 39 : les contacts radar avec l'appareil sont perdus.

In any case, here is my doubt: what happened in that 10 minute silence between the last contact attempt by Greek controllers and the plane beginning to turn and subsequenly fall?

Mo122

19th May 2016, 15:16

I can confirm this . A life jacket was found and a debris of a plane seat.

RTM Boy

19th May 2016, 15:16

Sky News website reports "A Greek frigate searching for an EgyptAir jet which disappeared between Paris and Cairo has discovered two large floating objects in the Mediterranean.Greek defence officials told Reuters pieces of white and red plastic and two life jackets were spotted close to an area where a transponder signal was emitted earlier."

LBCguy

19th May 2016, 15:48

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2016, 15:54

No, but less than a year ago about a dozen Mexican tourists taking their lunch by the roadside in the Western Desert were killed by Egyptian security forces, mistaking them for terrrists. Oops, sorry...

More foreigners have been mistakenly killed or injured in Egypt in the past ten years by Egyptian security imposed on them for "protection" than by terrorists. Sadly I'm talking from firsthand experience. Got it, lack of professionalism ... does the number you use include those who died in the metrojet loss?

Uncle Fred

19th May 2016, 16:18

Who (what agency or military) has taken command and control of the search?
Sounds as if there are a lot of vessels steaming those waters...who coordinates?

Romeo E.T.

19th May 2016, 16:21

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci1D4KGXEAAQ1Av.jpg

Wageslave

19th May 2016, 16:27

If we assume skymarshals are a potential threat then we must surely accept that pilots and cabin crew represent an equal risk? Actually a greater one in the ratio of 6:3.

It's rather amusing to think that some observers seem to think that it is only the presence of firearms that present a threat.

Not so?

drfaust

19th May 2016, 16:36

None of us will have any semblance of a clue until the flight data recorders are dug up. Anything else is speculative at best, but we all know it's mostly drivel.

With regards to having every 'right' to a professional discussion, you do realise this is the internet right?

Jagwar

19th May 2016, 16:38

Wageslave: Not amusing at all really - the obvious point is that we cannot any longer suppose that all flight crew, cabin crew and passengers had self preservation as a given. This kind of discussion would have been unbelievable 30 years ago. Now we have these selfish zealots poisoning everything we took as sacrosanct.
No matter what the actual cause of this particular accident , we all now suspect everyone else.

SilverDawg

19th May 2016, 16:43

Does the Airbus autopilot perform a pre-programmed emergency descent with loss of cabin pressure? The 90 degree turn followed by level off at 10000 ft (if true) is similar to what I have seen with a different type aircraft.

portmanteau

19th May 2016, 16:50

Is leaving airway at 90 degrees still a radio failure procedure? and a 360 an attention getter? after that things must have got more seriously wrong.

de facto

19th May 2016, 16:55

Do Egyptair PICs have discretion on whom is allowed to enter the flight deck?

Arfur Dent

19th May 2016, 17:07

It might have a bearing if one of the wings had been blown off/separated!:confused:

A0283

19th May 2016, 17:20

"Wreckage of the missing EgyptAir flight has been found near Karpathosisland, the airline says.In a statement, EgyptAir says the confirmation has been made by Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to thecountry's Ministry of Civil Aviation." Statement from the BBC timeline of the accident.

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2016, 17:22

1907hrs "Wreckage of the missing EgyptAir flight has been found near Karpathosisland, the airline says.In a statement, EgyptAir says theconfirmation has been made by Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to thecountry's Ministry of Civil Aviation." Statement from the BBC timeline of the accident.
Is it premature to offer a "well done" to all of those folks who pitched in for the search effort?

A0283

19th May 2016, 17:35

Lonewolf50 - I think you have to admire and support anyone involved in searches and recoveries like these, so in that sense not premature.

Wreckage is not the same as "wreck" though.

Wreckage, seafloor position location, wreck, lift and recovery is the sequence they still have to go through.

vmandr

19th May 2016, 17:37

Greek CAA press release

Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority - News (http://www.ypa.gr/en/news/egyptair-flight-msr-804)

no uncerfa or alerfa but immediate distress. well done for that controller.

kaszeta

19th May 2016, 17:40

Wageslave: Not amusing at all really - the obvious point is that we cannot any longer suppose that all flight crew, cabin crew and passengers had self preservation as a given. This kind of discussion would have been unbelievable 30 years ago.

It wouldn't have been completely unbelievable 30 years ago. 1982 had JAL 350, which was a clear case of "suicide by pilot".

Pace

19th May 2016, 17:46

Is leaving airway at 90 degrees still a radio failure procedure? and a 360 an attention getter? after that things must have got more seriously wrong.

I don't think this turn was an attention getter. Remember no distress call was made which sounds very much like something went seriously wrong very quickly with no spare thinking capacity with nice 90 degree turns with consideration for others in the airway :(

Something either made the aircraft go into a violent left turn with attempts to gain control I keep thinking of the earlier Airbus rudder/tail damage

Some aircraft will bank as part of an emergency decent but not sure what the procedure is in the A320 and still you would not bank to a 90 degree turn

There is still the possibility of so many things its all guesswork even to a cargo fire or explosion interfering with control

They need the blackbox is that 15000 feet down or in shallower water ?

A0283

19th May 2016, 17:46

vmandr's link is to the official website of the Greek CAA , think it is helpful to put the full text here:

19 MAY2016 EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MSR 804 - HELLENIC REPUBLIC - MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND NETWORKS - CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY GOVERNOR Athens, May 19, 2016 PRESS RELEASE

SUBJECT: EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MSR 804

Egypt Air flight MSR 804, A320 en route from Paris to Cairo entered ATHINAI FIR at 02:24 am local time. It was Radar identified and cleared by the competent Air Traffic Controller for the flight path.

At 02:48 am local time, the flight was transferred to the next Area Control Center Sector and was cleared by the ATC for the exit point of ATHINAI FIR. The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek.

At 03:27 am local time, ATHINAI Area Control Center tried to communicate with the flight for transfer of communication and control from ATHINAI FIR to CAIRO FIR.

Despite the repetitive calls, the flight did not respond and thus the Air Traffic Controller called on the emergency frequency without response.

At 03:29 am local time the flight was over the boundary point, between ATHINAI and CAIRO FIRs.

At 03:29:40 am local time the flight signal was lost from radar, almost 7 NM south/southeast from KUMBI point (boundary point, between ATHINAI and CAIRO FIRs), within Cairo FIR.

Immediate assistance of the Hellenic Air Force radars was requested for possible target tracking, with no avail.

At 03:45 am local time Search and Rescue (SAR) operations were activated through JRCC (Joint Rescue Coordination Center), NAOP (National Air Operations Center) and ADIC (Air Defense Information Center),while updating the Egyptian Civil Aviation Authorities.

jmmilner

19th May 2016, 17:55

As a response to lost of cabin pressure at FL37, turning 90 degrees off the airway prior to a rapid decent to 10,000 feet make sense. I do wonder if the quoted figures of 90 and 360 degrees from the Greek Defense Minister are actual figures, suggesting pilot control, or rounded numbers which suggest more precision/control than random numbers would.

uffington sb

19th May 2016, 17:59

'Near Karpathos island' seems a long way from where the Oceanus and other vessels are searching.

SaturnV

19th May 2016, 18:01

I presume they will conduct a methodical search along the track north of the located debris field.

At this point, an uncontained catastrophic engine failure cannot be ruled out.

Hotel Tango

19th May 2016, 18:02

Well that's interesting. Thanks to vmandr and the Hellenic CAA press release, we now know that Athinai ACC was calling 804, on en-route and emergency frequencies, without response, for 2 minutes and 40 seconds before "the flight signal was lost from radar".

What do we make of that?

But the last definite radio contact with the aircraft was at 02:48. Therefore, there's in fact 40 odd minutes unaccounted for before it went down.

Wageslave

19th May 2016, 18:06

Sequence reads;

0327 ATC tries to contact aircraft some 2 minutes from FIR boundary, and one assumes continues to call on working freq and Guard for next 2 mins or more.

0329 a/c crosses FIR boundary with no response to ATC - something is amiss in board.

40 seconds later something triggers a turn and rapid descent.

That ain't no coincidence the timing is just too cute. Looks like someone is out to deliver a nasty message to Egypt by the looks of it.

The turn and descent look not unlike a rapid depressurisation drill, not an unreasonable possibility after unlawful interference of a violent nature.

The FDR will be quickly recovered in those depths. We'll know soon enough.

FE Hoppy

19th May 2016, 18:09

I don't think this turn was an attention getter. Remember no distress call was made which sounds very much like something went seriously wrong very quickly with no spare thinking capacity with nice 90 degree turns with consideration for others in the airway :(

Something either made the aircraft go into a violent left turn with attempts to gain control I keep thinking of the earlier Airbus rudder/tail damage

Some aircraft will bank as part of an emergency decent but not sure what the procedure is in the A320 and still you would not bank to a 90 degree turn

There is still the possibility of so many things its all guesswork even to a cargo fire or explosion interfering with control

They need the blackbox is that 15000 feet down or in shallower water ?
Somewhere between 2 and 3000m in the area. "Herodotus Abyssal Plain".

mockingjay

19th May 2016, 18:09

SaturnV - I can't think of an instance of an I contained engine failure bringing a plane down. QF in Singapore was a pretty catastrophic failure but the plane got down.

DC10s and IL62s have history of a catastrophic engine failure bring the plane down but in modern history I can't think of an example.

vmandr

19th May 2016, 18:11

HT

why 'unaccounted' ? it was under POSITIVE radar contact, till the hand-over time to Cairo ACC / UIR boundary, and a little longer.

"The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek." that is, in good mood, as far as the controller could tell.

mercurydancer

19th May 2016, 18:25

It is a psychologically fundamental need to want to know of a serious incident as soon as possible. For obvious reasons. Whether in antiquity there were wolves around the sheep pen or a pilot next into an aircraft the need remains the same. It is impossible to override this need for immediate information and best if we dont even try.

Much of it will be misinformed, some wrong, some right and some untruthful, but we (as in humans rather than specialist professions) do have a knack for sorting out relevant information. Psychologically that is what we need to do. This site provides such informed information.

anartificialhorizon

19th May 2016, 18:25

Here we go again.... Deja vu from Metrojet thread.

After theories of engine failures, the tail breaking off, loss of cabin pressure, we are now just waiting for the theory about lithium batteries in the hold/ cabin.

I could cut and paste previous posts on Metrojet.

3 probable causes;

1- Terrorism
2- Deliberate actions in the Flight Deck (could be combined with 1 above)
3 -LOC (as per Air Asia)

The wreckage, passenger bodies (RIP) and later, the CVR/ DFDR will confirm one of the above.

As it is an Egyptian carrier, out of Paris, at the border of the FIR, No.1 looks to be the more likely.

PashaF

19th May 2016, 18:43

Piper22

19th May 2016, 18:44

First time, long time. I am not a pilot but currently working with the federal government of Egypt very closely on a large project there. I have dealt directly with members of the country's cabinet recently, although not in matters related to aviation.

There are people here that have said we should wait for more clear facts about the crash to arise before speculating. I'm going to take a wild guess that many of those people reside and in and have generally spent more of their professional lives in a developed country such an North America or Europe.

When dealing with this culture, integrity and facts simply are not valued in the same manner as they might be in other cultures, and I might imagine that this might have an impact of activities like an accident investigation. Face saving abounds in this culture. The regime also currently has taken widespread criticism over free speech in Egypt.

In the face of this, while I'm not a pilot and am in great admiration of the technical capacity, professionalism, and sense of mission of many on this blog, I have to disagree with those who seek to stifle debate about the events surrounding the apparent crash of this plane. In events like MS804 I think this blog and information like it actually serves as a helpful counterweight to forces within the country that might seek to limit a full explanation of the facts for a variety of reasons. I hope this continues.

Hotel Tango

19th May 2016, 18:50

A0283

19th May 2016, 19:05

Has someone had the time and opportunity to look at the weather in detail ?
Early on a jetstream was reported of 110+ knots.
Can anyone confirm that ... for the LKP ?
FR gave 33.6757 028.7924 ... had someone read an official statement giving an LKP ?

Volume

19th May 2016, 19:13

they would have time to call a Mayday There was not even an initiative from the crew required, obviously Greek ATC tried to contact them for a while, but they did not respond. Time may not have been the issue...

HEATHROW DIRECTOR

19th May 2016, 19:28

<<Perhaps one engine may have flamed out, causing the crew to exit 90 degrees from the airway whilst trying to restart the engine.>>

Is this now standard procedure?

wabulabantu

19th May 2016, 19:28

https://www.yahoo.com/news/greek-air-safety-authorities-deny-egyptair-wreckage-found-191845425.html?ref=gs

airsound

19th May 2016, 19:32

Hotel Tango. You say that any problems the crew may have encountered.....could have been any time after 02:48That's true. But the point is that we have no evidence as to when, or even if, such problems did occur in that time. On the other hand, we have fairly strong circumstantial evidence that something was going wrong during that last 2 minutes and 40 seconds before the "the flight signal was lost from radar", as the Hellenic CAA put it. That's because, during that time, 804 was not responding to repeated calls from Athinai ACC.

39 minutes earlier, the CAA saysThe pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek.What that surely suggests is that this was not an instantaneous event that immediately incapacitated the crew. It was, rather, something that caused the crew to be taking some kind of, perhaps desperate, action during those 2minutes and 40seconds - and perhaps for longer than that.

Edited to add:
....or I suppose it could suggest that the crew had been incapacitated, and that, for those 2 mins 40 secs, the aircraft was flying itself.

LBCguy

19th May 2016, 19:38

IF it was a terrorist assault, we'd hope to find out where whatever/whoever was loaded.
CDG seems unlikely.

Really?

"France: Document shows fear of radical airport workers as early as 2004"
France: Document shows fear of radicalized airport workers - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/26/europe/france-longtime-official-fear-of-airport-radicals/index.html)

Evenrude

19th May 2016, 19:39

Cut and paste from the EgypttAir Website....

EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MS 804
The Missing Aircraft of EGYPTAIR Flight number MS 804 PARIS CAIRO
19/05/2016
CAIRO – May 19, 2016 – EGYPTAIR resource stated that the Egyptian Ministry of Civil Aviation has just received an official letter from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring the finding of wreckage of the missing aircraft No. MS 804 near Karpathos Island. EGYPTAIR sincerely conveys its deepest sorrow to the families and friends of the passengers onboard Flight MS804. Family members of passengers and crew have been already informed and we extend our deepest sympathies to those affected. Meanwhile, the Egyptian Investigation Team in co-operation with the Greek counterpart are still searching for other remains of the missing plane. For more information,please call 080077770000 within Egypt Or +20225989320 international

RIGHTSEATKC135

19th May 2016, 19:46

Utter nonsense.
Having been a first officer on a KC-135R, and having experienced an engine shutdown on my #3 engine, followed by a fire warning on #1 (determined to be erroneous while my Captain was issuing our MAYDAY call), while almost 400-miles from the nearest adequate runway, I, for one, was more than glad to have had that flight engineer's carcass stationed four feet from my back.

Stuff happens, and it sometimes gets damned busy in the cockpit. That third set of eyes, and ears is often priceless, no matter what the bean counters say.

pfmayer

19th May 2016, 19:49

it's highly unlikely that the Greek airforce reconnaissance planes operating out of Iraklio and Chania in Crete didn't find any debris for a full day in a well-known area for a full day under good weather conditions. If there is any.

I.R.PIRATE

19th May 2016, 20:06

I've found that in that neck of the woods, pilots often just move onto the next freq without being handed off. Well known radio 'dead-zone' in that part of the Med when talking to Cairo. Often had to wait 10-20 mins before getting hold of them, even at FL450....if you dont get stepped on or ignored...

D Bru

19th May 2016, 20:11

Does anyone know whether in aftermath of German Wings, Egypt Air adopted a no single flight deck crew SOP, like many EU operators did ? In this case we're looking at an about 10 min before of top of descent, into a good 4 hour flight. Just thinking...

neila83

19th May 2016, 20:13

vmandr, unaccounted in as much as whatever may have developed prior to loss of radar contact at 03:29 may have occured at any time from the last radio TX from the aircraft at 02:48. It was only when ATC initiated a routine change of frequency TX at 03:27 that they realised there was no comm with the a/c. That doesn't mean that any problems the crew may have encountered was at that precise moment. It could have been any time after 02:48.

The ATC timeline seems to add a lot of useul informacion. We know thebpilots werent communicating for at least 2 mins prior to disappearin off radar. Its stretching the boundaries of probability that this is coincidente. Something stopped them talking.

However, during this perio the plane was flying normally therefore, this seems to discount a sudden bomb planted at the airport. If a bomb went ofd you dont get 2 mins straigjt and level then disappear. Something happened inside the plane. Of course who know it could have been fire leading to loss of comms that thwn ruptured the plane. Only one of so many possible theories rigt now.

Spooky 2

19th May 2016, 20:19

"I, for one, was more than glad to have had that flight engineer's carcass stationed four feet from my back"

I have never seen a dedicated FE station on any KC 135, much less a flight engineer? What am I missing? Also never heard the term F/O when speaking of an Air Force pilot on a KC135?

A0283

19th May 2016, 20:20

reported about 25 minutes ago - Greece's lead air accident investigator Athanasios Binis said the wreckage found near the Greek island of Karpathos was not from the Airbus A320.
But earlier, Egyptian officials said debris from the jet had been found.

and

the head of the Greek air safety authority, Athanassios Binos, has told state ERT TV that the wreckage "does not come from a plane". He said: "Up to now the analysis of the debris indicates that it does not come from a plane, my Egyptian counterpart also confirmed to me that it was not yet proven that the debris came from the EgyptAir flight when we were last in contact around 1745 GMT." Officials say all potential debris located so far in the sea has been spotted by Egyptian aircraft.

fox niner

19th May 2016, 20:28

Kumbi is the waypoint that the aircraft last crossed, and shortly thereafter it exploded.
Karpathos is 129 NM distance, in the opposite direction of travel.
That is quite a distance for wreckage to drift to. Hardly believable.

oleostrut

19th May 2016, 20:45

Hotel Tango

19th May 2016, 20:47

neiva 83 (and others), the 2 minutes is in my mind irrelevant. The last known TX was 02:48. What if ATC had tried to contact them at say 03:10? Do we know if they would have responded then? All we know is that there was no response at 03:27 only because that was the time ATC called them, without success.

Mo122

19th May 2016, 20:53

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=asgQ9ERvCBQ&feature=share

S&r today footage

Volume

19th May 2016, 20:57

still people typically do not stop communicating before a sudden explosion occurs... No matter whether 40 or 2 Minutes, it is quite strange that "it exploded" shortly after an unsuccessful attempt to contact the aircraft.
It would be very, very unlikely that failure of communication equipment / incapacitation of the crew and an explosion both happen purely accidentially on the same flight...

Something more happened before the aircraft "suddenly" disappeared. The CVR may tell

portmanteau

19th May 2016, 21:05

Lloydslist.com at 1437 for Oceanus input.

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2016, 21:16

"A senior U.S. intelligence official familiar with the U.S. capabilities in the region told NBC News the cause of the crash remains unclear, but infrared and multispectral imagers indicate strongly there was an explosion on the flight. " Source of the above: NBC news Live Blog (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/egyptair-crash/live-blog-latest-updates-egyptair-flight-804-crash-investigation-n576686). A further excerpt demonstrates how much noise gets added to signal ...
"It's not conclusive, but it's suggestive," a U.S. administration official concurred. "Now, the question is, if there was an explosion, what caused it? Mechanical failure? Explosives? No idea at this point." Was it necessary for "a senior US Intelligence official" to open his mouth on this? No. Sharing such info as can be shared with Egypt/Greece/France (et al) can be done via the usual channels without using the news as a vehicle.

Was it necessary for "a U.S. administration official" to offer the "what does it mean" noise? No. (Sadly, feeding the 24/7 news cycles seems to be all that some 'officials' are good for :mad: )

James7

19th May 2016, 21:22

If this was a mid air explosion then very likely debris would have been found by now. The med is a pretty busy place after all especially close to the islands. This seems more like a hijacking, by crew or pax. - aircraft disappearing etc sounds all to familiar. Hijacking and crash or hijacking and evade. Take your choice. Until there are pieces floating in the sea my bet is on evade.

portmanteau

19th May 2016, 21:24

BBC reporting no wreckage found yet and Egypt has apparently retracted earlier statements.

anengineer

19th May 2016, 21:25

I hope we're not going to be facing another 'fading pinger' scenario when they search for the CVDR from the bottom of the Med.

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2016, 21:25

BBC reporting no wreckage found yet and Egypt has apparently retracted earlier statements. Consistent with info on Lloyd's list (from your link)

Capt A Rotashnyuk of Laskaridis Shipping-operated ultramax Oceanus spoke exclusively to Lloyd’s List via satellite phone.“We didn’t find anything. No traces of fuel, no debris,” he confirmed.
Some objects were discovered, including a blanket, a canister and pieces of plastic, but it is not known if they are from the missing Airbus.
Oceanus has been in position since around 0600 local time, and will remain at the spot for the time being. @anengineer: on the pinger score, the prospects are more hopeful than with MH370 (presuming it works) due to no delay / red herring as with that case, the greater amount of radar coverage in the area, and the proximity of airports/ports/etc much nearer. A far better LKP (well, datum, there's a smaller AoP) gives all of the search effort better chances, to include the more exotic equipment needed for the very deep water in the area.

Old Boeing Driver

19th May 2016, 21:27

I don't think there is a significance about the lack of handover loss of communications.

That area has been known to have silent spots and sometimes you just have to fly until you hear Cairo and give them a call.

Maybe they didn't hear the Greeks, and had already changed to a Cairo frequency. I'm sure they knew what frequency they were going to be assigned.

I would go along with an earlier poster, that a device was installed at a location where security might not be as tough as CDG.

It could have been detonated by a timer (they really don't care when it blows), or by someone on board.

Look back at the crash out of Sharm El Sheikh.....many thought that was a trial run.

Volume

19th May 2016, 21:46

That area has been known to have silent spots and sometimes you just have to fly until you hear Cairo and give them a call.If loss of communication is that common in this area, why did the greek ATC started to communicate on the emergency frequency?
Is it that common, that aircraft enter egypt FIR without explicit clearance from Cairo?
(it very may well be possible, I´m just curious)

pfmayer

19th May 2016, 21:48

BBC reports: "A US review of satellite images has produced no signs of an explosion on board, Reuters news agency reports, quoting officials from multiple US agencies."
Greek airforce is flying daily or twice a day recon missions from their two bases in Crete. If they didn't find debris in their well known seas with a lot of imagery from yesterday to compare with, there isn't any. Crash without debris - possible?

James7

19th May 2016, 22:02

Is it that common, that aircraft enter egypt FIR without explicit clearance from Cairo
Aircraft have been doing it for years. It is just a handover.

Old Boeing Driver

19th May 2016, 22:25

Yes, it happens regularly.

They may have started the emergency drill due to their SOP's.

Phalconphixer

19th May 2016, 22:59

Couple of points picked up reading these comments and not making any wild accusations or suggestions just need to know.

Early comments suggest that ADS-B coverage in the area is flaky... this is not borne out when viewing real time FR24 coverage or a replay of the movements at the supposed time of the accident. All returns are solid except for MS804 and one other, briefly mentioned earlier but since ignored, UAE194.

There is, according to FR24, a definite conflict with MSR804 heading 147deg and alt 36,975' and UAE194 heading101deg at 37,000' All things being equal TCAS should have been screaming in RA mode... could it be that the hard left turn and rapid descent by MSR804 was initiated in response to an RA warning? Or even in an 'Oh ****' response to a sudden visual appearance of a B777 filling his windscreen just 25 ft above... (assuming high accuracy of the reporting altimeters...)
Strangely the FR24 trace on UAE 194 disappears shortly after the conflict... all other FR24 tracks are solid throughout, no 'flakyness.'

Outlandish suggestion? Tinfoil Hat time? No more than many other suggestions being made here... All too often these days political expediency seems to take priority over reality.

Old Boeing Driver

19th May 2016, 23:14

I'm curious about UAE194. I haven't seen any of the ADS-B info

There are no airways in that area that would cause a 101 degree heading, so where was UAE194 coming from and going to?

Also, if Egyptair was on a 147 heading and UAE was on a 101 heading there would not be a "head-on" situation.

Not saying your premise is not correct, but just asking.

Thanks for your input.

logansi

19th May 2016, 23:19

Othe EK flight was not actually being tracked, but on replay it is tracked because it joins the last point and then when it is tracked again and joins the 2, it was not actually in that area

SFI145

19th May 2016, 23:20

could it be that the hard left turn and rapid descent by MSR804 was initiated in response to an RA warning?
No an RA can never command a turn.

MartinM

19th May 2016, 23:22

@Phalconphixer. I like you theorie, but they would have been able to send our an emergency call. which here was not the case. And there was no collision like in Uberlingen.

EEngr

19th May 2016, 23:37

UAE194 has landed by now. So it would seem logical that someone has asked whether the flight was uneventful or otherwise.

Even the SLF might have noticed a sudden climb or descent at about the right time.

Old Boeing Driver

19th May 2016, 23:43

I just researched UAE194 on Flightaware.

There is a lot lot of data missing during the flights that were operated through that area.

The UAE194 on 16 may actually has it going north to Greece, then back south to resume what looks like a normal path.

I also looked on FR24. it looks like they usually enter HECA airspace at Salun and go over El Daba. Nowhere near MS804.

Old Boeing Driver

20th May 2016, 00:12

Since this happened to an Egyptian Airliner in Egyptian airpace, the facts may never be known. IMHO.

This is a great forum for speculations of all types. Sometimes the "off the wall" stuff is true.

Nobody has mentioned a meteor strike yet......... :-)

vmandr

20th May 2016, 00:16

@OBD?

Strange huh? seems some tracker software unable to drop erroneous position data. In your example 200nm North followed by another 200nm South, all potition nicely connected, all in a matter of minutes ?
UAE gone Supersonic ? :p

Old Boeing Driver

20th May 2016, 00:20

It looks like the ADS-B for the area around the northern Cairo FIR is just not reliable.

Having flown that area a lot (a long time ago), the equipment to get the ADS-B is probably still not there.

I know from friends flying in those areas now that radio communications have not changed much.

galaxy flyer

20th May 2016, 00:21

RIGHTSEATKC135,

Nice tale except a KC-135 doesn't have an engineer on the crew and doesn't have a F/E station "four feet" behind the co-pilot.

NSEU

20th May 2016, 00:28

According to Wikipedia, there were some KC135's fitted with Flight Engineer positions.

KC-135D
All four RC-135As (Pacer Swan) were modified to partial KC-135A configuration in 1979.[42][43] The four aircraft (serial numbers 63-8058, 63-8059, 63-8060 and 63-8061) were given a unique designation KC-135D as they differed from the KC-135A in that they were built with a flight engineer's position on the flight deck.[44] The flight engineer's position was removed when the aircraft were modified to KC-135 standards but they retained their electrically powered wing flap secondary (emergency) drive mechanism and second air conditioning pack which had been used to cool the RC-135As on-board photo-mapping systems.[45] Later

Buster Hyman

20th May 2016, 01:05

You lost me at "According to Wikipedia"

WingNut60

20th May 2016, 01:13

jolihokistix

20th May 2016, 01:32

May have missed it in all these recent posts, but no-one has mentioned the Daallo Airlines event in Mogadishu back on 2 February this year, where a hole was punched out of the fuselage, supposedly by a laptop device. They got the timing and the placement of the laptop and the airline wrong, (last minute swapout of aircraft, see link) but it must have been a learning experience for whoever built it.

https://www.rt.com/news/331800-somalia-plane-bomber-turkish/

Since at present almost any theory is valid, just throwing this into the pot to bear in mind.

ifli43

20th May 2016, 02:14

Some very interesting speculations. Like to see a post from A320 driver as to what happens with AP in and #1 eng fail at cruise alt. Memories of China 006 and AF 447. If ac can wind up in unusual attitude w tired pilots, could recovery induce structural failure? No evidence yet of in flight explosion but we shall see.

Spooky 2

20th May 2016, 02:15

I think we have found a poser in our group. No flight engineers or for the matter first officers
on any RC135's. Now back to our story of the day.

Kind of strange that no one has stepped forward with a claim for this accident. Also if it was a bomb, there seems to be a lack of any Mayday calls which seems strange as well? Your thoughts?

ExSp33db1rd

20th May 2016, 02:19

..........Also if it was a bomb, there seems to be a lack of any Mayday calls ...........

At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious ..... if a bomb causes an almost instantaneous decompression, break up, call it what you will, how long do you think you might have left to make a radio call after your initial comment of "WTF was that ? "

Mozella

20th May 2016, 02:55

Well known radio 'dead-zone' in that part of the Med when talking to Cairo.
It's been a while since I flew into Cairo (767) from the North-West, but I remember plenty of lost comm events. I always had a list of appropriate frequencies handy in case it was necessary to go searching around for someone to talk to.

onetrack

20th May 2016, 02:59

The Airbus has little by way of mechanical design problems. There does appear to be a confusion in understanding how the computerisation is controlling the aircraft when an unforeseen event happens. That confusion largely relates to adequate training of the crew - and how closely the crew do follow their training, when an emergency is upon them.

Overall, though, the reliability of the Airbus is proven, by the tens of thousands of uneventful flights carried out on a daily basis.

So the likelihood of this event being a terrorist attack is far higher than any aircraft or crew failure.

The terrorists learn from every attack they carry out. They have found out that bombs in the centre of an aircraft do not always work effectively. They have found out that the weakest part of an aircraft is in the tail region. Damage the tail region, and the aircraft falls uncontrollably.
Sharp turns at cruise or near-cruise level, possibly in the region of 90° and 360°, as mentioned by officials, indicate to me, an aircraft with a seriously damaged tail.

Terrorists rarely brag loudly and publically about their successes today, because they know that in this electronic age, it means that they will be promptly located, and will rapidly receive on their heads, a laser-guided missile from a great height, that they don't even see coming.

striker26

20th May 2016, 03:05

What's sad is that some news channels have such poor analytics when it comes to these incidents. For example i just watched a news channel talk about how this was the 5th flight for this plane for 20 minutes....relevant? Yes but if you talk about miniscule facts to make them bigger to make news you create misleads. Its really unfortunate...then we have other news outlets declaring "wreckage found" when in fact it wasn't. Millions of ships pass through these waters every year. ..just because cargo ship disasters don't make headlines don't think a life vest or container debris can only come from 1 aircraft.

The fact that there was no response from the crew during ATC's attempts is very odd and decompression sure looks culpable however hears hoping they find the location of the plane so we can know more.

An Egyptian friend of mine told me today that back home the airline is under immense pressure from various news and foreign media outlets... lots of info coming in and they're trying to be very careful in what they let out..let's all take a deep breath and think positive and hope for the best.

Onetrack - well said and don't forget with current technology there is no requirement for terrorist to travel physically anymore. ..they can communicate freely electronically as well. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere along the airport /airline routing someone was sought out and convinced. But then again we have 0 proof so let's focus our efforts in supporting the families and finding this plane. Not wreckage yet!

LBCguy

20th May 2016, 03:20

Or more specifically "all these military air-surveillance radars and satellite-born radars and optical systems never have anything to say PUBLICLY ....".
What those systems actually see, and what their operators actually pass to the civil authorities and when they pass it is something that we, as mere mortals, will never fully know.
Regarding the military air defense radars, I believe that the standard "export version" air defense systems have a surveillance range of 170-200mi. How far off of the Egyptian coast did this event take place? It might have been out of range of the nearest military primary radar...

CodyBlade

20th May 2016, 04:43

An entire day of searching,several assets,good Wx/vis,no chop,fairly defined area and still no debris?.

jugofpropwash

20th May 2016, 05:27

This may have been stated, but if so, I missed it. Do we know if the flight was on time? Assuming a timed device, a flight which was ahead or behind schedule could affect where the device went off. This incident seemed to be relatively close to land - wouldn't a terrorist prefer to blow up a flight further from shore where presumably the water would be deeper, and it would be more difficult to recover evidence?

wiggy

20th May 2016, 05:37

jugofpropwash

This incident seemed to be relatively close to land

FWIW you're never that far from land in Med (as in a couple of hundred miles), especially at the eastern end and regarding depth of water according to previous posters here this aircraft disappeared over the deepest bit.

sitigeltfel

20th May 2016, 05:49

bilby_qld

20th May 2016, 06:07

SummerLightning

20th May 2016, 06:18

I'm puzzled by media reports that the search seems to be focused on Karpathos, a Greek island to the ENE of Crete. The likely crash site, based on what we know from flight tracking sites, must be 250km or more SSE of there.
I'm sure there are folks out there who know where to look and are doing it right now - but at the risk of courting controversy, I don't trust the Greek or Egyptian authorities or the international media to provide reliable information.

andrasz

20th May 2016, 06:31

SL, the story was fed by the reported finding of life jackets and other debris near Karpathos (which should have been treated as a red flag), later confirmed to be not from the aircraft. The real search is centered on the LKP, around the position of m/v Oceanos.

DaveReidUK

20th May 2016, 06:33

The source is a vague statement made by the Greek Minister of transport referring to Greek AF radar data, from which creatives at various news outlets drew pretty pictures to fill the space in absence of any known facts.

PS: If you look closely on the drawing you showed, they even got the only verifiable figure wrong...

I suspect the aerial ballet manoeuvres theory may turn out to be, like the Greek Defence Ministry's statement yesterday that wreckage had been found, nonsense.

ETOPS

20th May 2016, 06:54

What evidence is, so far, that this aircraft has actually crashed?

Sure it is overdue and the radar return ceased over the Med but take a look sideways....

Turn off the transponder at the know area of poor RT coverage, make a spiral descent to low level over the sea then head for another destination as opposed to Cairo.

andrasz

20th May 2016, 07:06

What evidence is, so far, that this aircraft has actually crashed?

None. All we know with reasonable certainty is that after an uneventful cruise at F370 with normal communications, ADS-B signal was lost just inside Cairo FIR, no further communication was received from the aircraft, and if we can trust the Greek minister's statement, primary radar tracked its descent to FL100 after which it was lost over the horizon.

Everything else at present is extrapolation/speculation.

While an unlikely scenario, the point of disappearance is exactly in the middle of the "blind spot" for both Greek and Egyptian primary radar below FL100, and there are plenty of runways in Northern Libya within expected endurance where an A320 could land. Hiding it after daybreak from prying satellite eyes is another story, and were this the case we would probably have heard the demands by now...

log0008

20th May 2016, 07:13

Very surprised we still have no wreckage, being such a busy area i expected it to be found very quickly, if its not found soon the headlines will be starting to see it like MH370

milsabords

20th May 2016, 07:39

Conspiracy theory! But if true the only possible other destination without being detected crossing a coastline by radar would possibly be Libya. Which would mean it was highjacked by ISIS. But surely the USA military would have seen it on rader.
Is it possible that the US and/or Israel have AWACS monitoring this area ?

Pace

20th May 2016, 07:47

Today's papers all point to an explosion and IS attack again from
Point of origin in Paris
The US are convinced there was an explosion whether caused by terrorism or mechanical failure
It is also claimed that the aircraft went into a spin and crashed

kbootb

20th May 2016, 07:49

Signal to noise on these threads becomes a problem very quickly.

Declaration: interested civilian with no qualifications to propose theories.

But, can anyone state for certain:

1). Is the rapid descent and turns a fact? Does anybody the source? e.g. the location of the radar - was it radar or a trace of transponder or other transmissions?
2) Last know definite position - not based on tracks that have been through software and are prone to extrapolations between updates.

3) Media sources state the flight level as 370 but have various times to run until landing, ranging from 20 to 30 mins. AT what point would you expect a descent to start? Is the flight level and last know position what you would expect on this flight plan?

Thanks in advance.

underfire

20th May 2016, 07:56

The US Navy certainly has a presence in that area, with ultimate tracking abilities.

Heathrow Harry

20th May 2016, 08:01

I think Israel will have the best coverage TBH..................

mary meagher

20th May 2016, 08:12

Onetrack, in post 213, makes sense. A well built aircraft can withstand a rupture in the hull, even with explosive decompression. But the elevator and the rudder if damaged could lead to unusual attitudes. The flight path described certainly looks like a spin, the turn one way, then the very rapid spiral descent. As for no communication, we all know the rules. Com comes last on that list.

The Med must be the worst place to search for floating evidence, it must be full of rubbish of every sort, especially life jackets near Greek islands....seems to me the sooner they can try to locate the ping from the recorders, the sooner they may find the wreckage.

andrasz

20th May 2016, 08:15

HH, the point of disappearance is 600km from the Israeli shoreline, too far for any land based radar even at FL370.

BillS

20th May 2016, 08:17

Radar coverage : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Akrotiri : see recent operations.

xollob

20th May 2016, 08:19

if the Greeks couldn't raise the crew for a period of time why is it being handled by the Egyptians ? had it actually crossed Into their airspace confirmed by transponder returns or is this all based on expected position from flight route ?

I'm sure the world would rather this was handled by European investigators, rather than a country that is adamant that its security is sound and trying to convince the flying masses that it is a safe country to be bringing visitors to following the unfortunate Russian incident last year.

Pace

20th May 2016, 08:26

A well built aircraft can withstand a rupture in the hull, even with explosive decompression. But the elevator and the rudder if damaged could lead to unusual attitudes. The flight path described certainly looks like a spin, the turn one way, then the very rapid spiral descent. As for no communication, we all know the rules. Com comes last on that list.

What Mary Meagre says makes most sense to me i would just add that the A320 is fly by wire so we don't know what was damaged in the explosion which gave the crew little or no control

andrasz

20th May 2016, 08:28

@kbootb

1) No. It is inferred from the statement of the Greek minister of transport, but we have seen many such statements in the past from unqualified officials quickly changed or revoked.
2) Confirmed by both Greek ATC statement (can be taken as authentic) and also Egyptair. Also as seen from plenty of past events, FR24/Flightaware data are pretty reliable as long as real data are received, and in this case it does appear to be in agreement with official sources.
3) Fits perfectly, top of descent into Cairo along this route is usually just before the Egyptian shoreline, with 20-25 minutes left to landing. At their LKP they still had at least 35-40 minutes flight time left.

mickjoebill

20th May 2016, 08:34

According to my interpretation of the moon calculators, the moon was 90% (nearly full) and 20-50degress above the horizon at 270degrees.

If the weather was clear, I imagine it would be visible from copilots seat?

Mickjoebill

Evanelpus

20th May 2016, 08:34

I'm shocked that in 2016, we can't pinpoint to a fairly decent degree of certainty where the aircraft could be after 24hrs of daylight since it went missing.

The aircraft went missing in what was primarily 'European' airspace, so we are not talking Pacific Ocean or vast areas of dead zone radar coverage here.

I've avoided phrases like crash, downed, blown up etc because we don't know what happened here and my thoughts go out to all the families and friends of those onboard who must be going through hell at this very difficult time.

ETOPS

20th May 2016, 08:39

Just to re-iterate the loss of RT here is entirely normal. I've flown this route for over a decade and Greek ATC fades about 10 minutes from their FIR boundary. I always ask them to give me the expected Cairo freq beforehand so I can change over when crossing KUMBI. It can take a couple of minutes before you can hear the Egyptian controller but this is again entirely normal.

Kerosene

20th May 2016, 08:43

Was there an ELT signal following the disappearance? How is it known the plane crashed?

Miraculix

20th May 2016, 08:48

Global Pilots on missing Egyptair flight MS804

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL - The International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations (IFALPA) is closely monitoring the developments related to the disappearance of Egyptair flight MS 804, an Airbus A320 en-route from Paris (CDG) to Cairo (CAI).

Our thoughts and best hopes are with the 66 crew and passengers onboard the aircraft, and their families.

Whilst the search and rescue efforts are taking place, IFALPA stresses the need to avoid speculation as to what happened to the aircraft. The Federation has reached out to the Egyptian Air Line Pilots’ Association and will offer its expertise to the Egyptian Accident Investigation Agency in order to help gather facts and any other information which may be pertinent to this event.

For further information, please contact Captain Martin Chalk, IFALPA President, at +44 7432 616 119 or [email protected], or Mrs. Anna Lou, IFALPA Communications & Marketing Coor- dinator, at +1 514 419 1191 or [email protected].
###
Note to Editors: The International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations represents in excess of 100,000 pilots in about 100 countries around the globe. The mission of IFALPA is to promote the highest level of aviation safety worldwide and to be the global advocate of the piloting profession; providing representation, services and support to both our members and the aviation industry.
See the Federation website Home - IFALPA (http://www.ifalpa.org)
©2016 The International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations
In the interests of flight safety, reproduction of this Press Release in whole or in part is encouraged. It may not be offered of sale or used commercially. All reprints must credit IFALPA.

fchan

20th May 2016, 08:53

andrasz

20th May 2016, 08:54

Glad to see IFALPA is making the effort to jump on the publicity bandwagon :yuk:

FullWings

20th May 2016, 08:57

The only confirmed evidence we have is the last known position and last voice transmission. The first being close to an international FIR boundary, the second being friendly and unconcerned. Interesting comparison to MH370, although it may be coincidence. Also, where is the most remote point on the route with the greatest depth of sea? No claims of responsibility, either. Certainly a possibility that it was intentional but what probability...?

Edition12

20th May 2016, 09:04

AFP and Sky reporting Egyptian authorities have confirmed they've found wreckage this time.

maggot738

20th May 2016, 09:16

Skynews are now reporting that debris from the aircraft has been found some 180 nm from Alexandria. Apparantly confirmed by the military as aircraft debris including some passenger personal effects.

silvertate

20th May 2016, 09:17

What evidence is, so far, that this aircraft has actually crashed?
Sure it is overdue and the radar return ceased over the Med but take a look sideways....
.

Regard the Imarsat option mentioned on this thread, there are not many short haul operators who would bother with Imarsat. Their routes are too short and too well covered with ACARS coverage and ground frequencies to bother with an Imarsat link. But perhaps it is time to rethink the monitoring of aircraft in flight, either by permanent transponder or an Imarsat type option. Aviation cannot continue with this great question mark hanging over it - it saps public confidence in the industry.

Mo122

20th May 2016, 09:18

Egyptian navy finds EgyptAir wreckage - AJE News (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/egyptian-navy-finds-egyptair-wreckage-160518073929160.html)

andrasz

20th May 2016, 09:18

Looking at marinetraffic.com all vessels involved in S/R yesterday are now back to their original course, none left in the general area.
That would fit with initial wreckage identified, and remaining search conducted by the Egyptian Navy. 290kms North of Alexandria is very close to LKP

A0283

20th May 2016, 09:19

The EgyptianAir Force says it has found wreckage from the missingEgyptAir plane. - A military spokesman said in a statement that wreckage and personal belongings of passengers were found 290km off the Egyptian coast, north of the Mediterranean city of Alexandria. The spokesman said the Navy was sweeping the area for the aircraft's black box. EgyptAir officials said 100 relatives of the missing passengers have gathered at a nearby hotel.

Hope they are right this time (and linked personal belongings to people actually on board). Clear change from the strange 'close to Karpathos' statements.