Interesting Take on Pilot Demand - Flight international Comment

[VinRouge]

According to 27th May edition, some airlines are having to cut back schedules due to a lack of pilots. Mentions Ryan, American regionals and JAL as suffering from problems.

It goes into whether the 15 year predicted shortfall in pilots is actually starting to happen; apparently all efficiencies of scale have now been realized, the effects of 9.11, extensions in pilot maximum woking age are now smoothed out.

Thoughts? Considering jumping ship from current employer who are currently bricking it as a result of briefed expected outflows to greener grass at the same time as requiring expansion of numbers.

[main_dog]

There will never be a shortage of pilots willing to believe it, that's for sure. :sad:

[172_driver]

Still not convinced..

An endless supply of cadets in Europe. Many of them will never get in. I used to instruct and I know about which ones have gotten through the door and which ones are still standing out in the cold. The second group is still high.

No surprise Ryanair and American regionals are mentioned on that list.

[B737900er]

These articles always leave out the key word - "Experienced"

There is no shortage of pilots, but there are a shortage of experienced pilots/captains.

[ETOPS]

Think they're referring to Ryan International not RYR...

[Nikonair]

Not surprised they have a "lack" of pilots in the States, it's due to the 1500 hrs minimal requirement, and the crappy pay the American regionals offer. There's no lack of pilots, just a lack of 1500+ hrs pilots willing to work on their terms.

All in my humble opinion of course.

[StopStart]

What he said. The FAA 1500hr Rule has restricted the number of suitably qualified pilots available in the States.

Until similar restrictions are placed on European airlines I very much doubt you'll see the much-vaunted "shortage" materialise around these parts..

Directed by Congress, the Airline Safety and FAA Extension Act of 2010 called for increased minimum requirements for airline first officers. The new rule mandates that airline first officers hold an air transport pilot (ATP) certificate or the new “restricted ATP.”

An ATP certificate requires, among many other qualifications, that the pilot be at least 23 years old and have logged at least 1,500 hours of flight time.

The “restricted ATP” requires pilots to be at least 21 years old with

750 flight hours if they are military-trained and qualified,
1,000 flight hours if trained in a four-year college or university-accredited aviation training program leading to a bachelor’s degree, or
1,250 flight hours if trained in a two-year college aviation program leading to an associate’s degree.

[latetonite]

How does anybody wants to sell his experience as a pilot, if he does not have it?
In my humble opinion, an airliner's front seat is not the place to learn to fly in.

[Fair_Weather_Flyer]

The airlines experiencing shortages are pretty much all rubbish companies to work for with base level pay, maximum hours and awful basing. Whenever other airlines recruit, their workforce will leave like a heard of wildebeast. Leaving them to recruit anything with a pulse and licence.

[Zaphod Beblebrox]

In my opinion,the US will see MPL in the next several years. The congress under extreme pressure from Airlines and even manufacturers will bypass the 1500 hour rule and allow alternative licensing with greatly reduced time.

However that will be significant training by air-carriers as sponsors and extensive simulator training in Air carrier operations. It's not a good thing because they will pass this under duress and in a rush ad there won't be the kind of attention to detail that this type of change requires.

The industry simply does not have the numbers of people interested in flying as a career. They have seen every one go bankrupt, here in the US, and pilots lose pensions, take huge pay-cuts and the industry simply has lost its luster.

Being a pilot is now seen as just another job, and it is a job where you are under constant scrutiny, medical testing, drug testing, competence testing, (check rides and training) and no support from you company if you lose your medical or have an incident.

It is an economic fact that price is what you pay and quality is what you get. The quality of the air travel experience has declined for most people. The price has declined and correspondingly compensation and terms of employment have declined. The market signals being sent are that you will get lower quality candidates or competition for highly qualified candidates will increase.

Airlines hate the thought of getting into a compensation war for qualified pilots. In the US they will change licensing methods rather than significantly raise the compensation level to attract the kind of people they want.

[parabellum]

Just a personal opinion but before the FAA agree to reducing the 23 year old/1500hour minimum it will have to be sold to the insurance market and therein may lay a large obstacle. Money will always talk but it will be a question of how much and maybe the price will be too much.


P.S. Looks as though QANTAS are about to drop up to 300 experienced pilots onto the job market.

[Derfred]

According to all reports the number is less than 100.

The 300 figure came from one inaccurate news report which was mere speculation.

[captbod]

I'll believe it when I see "Pilot" on the immigration skills shortage list for countries such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the USA. Though I'd love to see it, it'll never happen.

[Denti]

@parabellum: the insurance companies won't even put up a fight, they do insure enough carriers that have used cadets for the last 60+ years with quite good results. And new carriers worldwide are joining the MPL program every few months, simply because in many developing areas in aviation there is already a very real shortage, just not in those older economies like europe or the us.

[DutchExpat]

Ryanair braucht für den Sommer mehr Flugzeuge - airliners.de (http://www.airliners.de/ryanair-braucht-fuer-den-sommer-mehr-flugzeuge/32588)

Ryanair wetleasing this summer Pilot shortage here?

[shed loads]

I'm with you captbob, there never has been a "pilot shortage" and never will be.

I'll grant, there is a lack of 22 year old 20,000+ houred B787 Training Skippers, but is something else entirely....

[Natstrackalpha]

As a now famous Japanese airline has proved - they cancelled 154 flights over June 2014 due to...................lack of pilots and are feverishly trying to find more.


They are not the only ones who are desperate - at this time.
the hot jockeys leaving the West to Go East means the West are also in need of F/Os who will become Captains - otherwise all of our crews over here will be with the airlines over in the Far East.


There is a demand and there are not enough pilots to fulfil the demand.

[Mr-P]

@Natstrackalpha

There is a demand and there are not enough pilots to fulfil the demand.

Utter nonsense. There is a small demand in a few airlines that have basically put themselves in this position due to piss poor planning.

There are thousands and thousands of unemployed pilots worldwide that would love an opportunity. There are thousands of pilots out there that are employed and love the opportunity.

What there isn't is plenty of pilots willing to work for little or less reward in a not so familiar environment and in some circumstances for a not so friendly employer....or should I say "customer" as they will be contractors after all.

Before anyone says there are not enough "qualified" pilots, that is utter nonsense too. There are plenty of pilots out there with thousands of hours, most likely on type with legacy carriers which could move into such positions....but why would they....the carrot isn't big enough by far.

The US has again plenty of pilots all with over 1500 hours and ready to move to the regionals so the US airline argument is false too. By saying they are not good pilots is a sign that training needs to be changed not the current 1500 hour rule, however I suspect it is simply a ploy to keep T's & C's down.

The only shortage of crew in any airline in todays climate when there are more unemployed pilots than there has ever been (certainly in Europe anyway) is purely down to their own incompetence, period.

[RAT 5]

I'm with you captbob, there never has been a "pilot shortage" and never will be.

One thing perhaps is being missed in this calculation. Not so many years ago it was common for an airline pilot to retire on a good pension at 55-ish. In the last 80's a few airlines extended this to 60; all controlled by their pension schemes. (There are still some legacy carriers with a pension age of 55-58ish. Good luck to the lucky few.) Then the vast majority of airlines extended to 60 and no pension scheme. Then, under EU rules, the age has been extended to 65, and still often no pension scheme. Thus old farts are finding it very necessary to stick it out until national pension kicks in. There has been an expansion of the industry with LoCo's and the major's all expanding as the population pollution of the travelling public has ever increased. If the pension age was reversed to 60, then do the calculations about pilot shortage. Wow; what a shock. The expansion we've seen might not ever have been able to happen. Discuss.
It's a chicken and egg. If supply meets demand, or is just a bit in surplus, that explains why T's & C's have declined. One of the root causes of that has been the increase in pension age, IMHO. It's not reversible. Live with it, but fight the declines.

[Piltdown Man]

Lack of pilots? Firstly we are really talking about the USA. There, airlines aren't paying enough to recruit the pilots they need. Own goal, no sympathy. The Japanese, if there is a shortage, haven't done their sums. My understanding of this market is that is so restrictive that you have to start recruiting ab-initios now for your airline in five years time. And if you have to cancel flights, has an alternative method of reducing demand been considered? How about putting up the price and paying pilots more? But in Europe, we still have a glut of flying lemmings. These doe eyed dreamers will pay to work, they'll undercut anyone and be out of a job just as soon as they approach a reasonable level of experience. Not until the supply of hopeless optimists dries up will there ever be a shortage of (inexperienced) pilots.

[G.S. Willy]

I've been in this business for more than 25 years and like most with the same or more experience I've heard this song many times before.

In the last 10 years in Europe, terms and conditions for pilots have gotten less and less attractive, this is in my opinion due to a surplus of pilots that never seems to end.

Training organizations are putting these stories out there to attract naive and optimistic young people to spend a fortune training for a dream that still is alive amongst many, despite the fact that in many cases it turns out to be a nightmare. The schools tell the success stories, bragging about all the companies their graduates are working for, nothing is told about the masses that failed to secure a job.

Airlines long ago discovered that they do not have to pay new candidates much to attract good people with a dream.
Some airlines may have gone too far, and now experience a shortage of qualified people willing to take a :mad: contract, but all they have to do is improve the conditions slightly and the problem will be solved.

I still have some hope that the shortage might materialize, but so far I cannot see anything indicating this to happen in the near future.

[samca]

Probably Europe Airlines will have to increase payment if not the majority of qualifed pilots flying around the world will never accept their rubish contracts and prefer stay far but well paid

[LindbergB767]

There is no shortage of pilots. I have been flying since 1973 and heard that rumor several time
but the working condition have been reduced every year
Talking about Japan it is sad to say that in the low cost airlines,it is Skymark which have the best working condition but still, they have reduced them since 2004
Peach,Vanilla, Jetstar Japan have difficulty to find pilots. ?? why. ?? their accomodation, travelling, basic salary, ect ect is even less than Skymark. Everybody want experience pilots but they d ont want to pay for it
Who is interested to spend 6 months on training at a reduced salary, whitout going home at least one time, and at the end, having a Sim test with the crasy JCAB, and after your OJT having another check with JCAB
No there is no shortage of pilot, since the age restriction is still at 60 in China and Vietnam
and both of those. countries are looking for experience pilots all the time
The working condition did not change since at least 10 years in Vietnam, Japan, Korea
Same salary, same holliday

[RAT 5]

Everybody want experience pilots but they do not want to pay for it

Therein lies the rub. To kick start the rapid expansion seen over the past 20 years, mostly via the LoCo's, the seat price had to be cut to the bone. RYR even had 'loss-leaders' for €1. People became used to it. The same with cheap food and cheap clothing. Eventually enough people became as used to flying away for a couple of days as they were driving to the coast or other relaxation spots. The businesses had to grow to survive. Every country wanted its LoCo. What could not happen is for the price to rise to a more realistic level otherwise the pax would stay at home. It's a fine line. If you believe MOL, which I didn't, he trumpeted that even a €2-5 departure tax in NL or DE would be enough to kill his pax figures. (the fact that he added much more to his own extras, and it had no effect tells the truth). What has also happened is that the majors have reduced their prices and now are very competitive with LoCo's, when you pay the bottom line.
Thus there is no way salaries can rise to an honest pre-LoCo level. Even just taking into account inflation over the past 15 years, never mind the increase in productivity, the package has been driven down significantly: no pay rises, no pension, own training costs, own uniform costs, no work no pay = no sick pay & no holiday pay = no guaranteed income. To restore even these basic elements of a respectable salary package would see quite a price hike; to include the lost inflation as well would deter pax from their leisure breaks.
It could be that the shortage of pilots will not cause just cancellations, but also closures. Then the number of seats available will reduce to those who can pay the higher prices. You see higher prices already on certain routes where there is a monopoly. The carrier teases the market for maximum yield; i.e. the maximum price they can charge without putting off all but the essential pax. With only one carrier they can do this. If some carriers fail, due lack of pilots, then the same effect will come into play. It will take quite a while, but it could happen.
How are SWA, the daddy of it all, doing? They are reputed to have ace T's & C's. What about their prices over the past few years? Are they still the datum? If so, how? Less greed or better run?

[Carbon Brakes 300]

A friend I used to fly the DC3 with joined Southwest. He called me about two years later to tell me he was left seat..."I fly the plane and the company pours buckets of money on me, hahaha " which was pretty outstanding to hear. That was 20 years ago and he´s happier than ever.
So, what MOL and his cronies have done to destroy the sector is, as said, just piss poor planning combined with new rich arrogance.:mad:

[parabellum]

Denti - What you say is probably true of pilots who have done an approved course of training at a recognised training establishment, cadet schemes, paid for by the airline, are particularly valued in 'The Market'. The hard part will be getting any hours/age limitations, ( called 'warranties' in the insurance world), removed from existing air carriers policies and they apply to all US carriers now. Getting a warranty removed from a policy is the hard part, believe me, in my short experience in the London market, many moons ago, I have tried!


Derfred - Hope you are right. When a major carrier announces redundancies historically 10% will be from the flight deck, that rule of thumb meant that 300 was on the 'good' side. What I heard was that about 200 would be voluntary or natural and 100 would be given notice, nothing to do with unsubstantiated gossip! ;)

[pinoyboy]

...the thing that irks me is that when you hear about places like peach/vanilla looking/crying for pilots and cancelling flights, you send them a cv (resume')... they simply reply "sorry sir , you need 500 sic time in type" i have the b737/a320 rating but no experience. its a catch 22. why dont they use their heads and have me fly in the jump seat 50 or 100 hundred hours then to right seat !? i have offered them that but they refuse. i dont feel the least pity or sorry for them ! and btw , i would never p2f.:ok:

[latetonite]

No P2F? But you shopped for a type rating and think you are empoyable as an airline pilot?

[750k]

There is no pilot shortage in Europe !!
There is no pilot shortage in Europe !!
In my view the big training schools are half the problem, they sell the 'dream' to anyone with the cash, then as the Flight International article says
'A fair proportion of those remaining will not pass muster' So only the top few get placed, the rest join the unemployed, and the 'lucky few' get to PTF or fly for nothing !


There will never be a select by ability programme, as long as the candidates wallet is part of the equation, as we all know accountants rule aviation, and nothing is about to change that.


Aside from that, there are vast numbers of unemployed pilots, many with substantial experience. But most airlines now only want 200hr cadets who have sold their financial sole, and of course there is a massive over supply of them!


I may sound a little cynical, but I'm near the end of my career, and to have watched the way its all changed is rather sad.


Good luck if your just starting out !

[no sponsor]

As far as I can see there's no shortage of experienced F/Os with proven experience and the right type ratings; however, the critical change in the last 7 years is that no-one wants them. The future is all about cheap trainees who have paid for their training and will work on highly reduced terms and conditions. There's no shortage of those either.

The result of all of that is there is virtually no career left; it's curtains if you are an F/O and are out of work for more than 12 months. I've half a mind to cancel my Flight subscription after I read that recent gibberish.

[MichaelOLearyGenius]

Airlines don't want experience they want cheap.

Did anyone see the article on BBC Watchdog the other night? Two plane loads of TCX pax, about 350 people,were delayed 37 hours as they did not have any pilots to fly the ac at Bristol.

Each pax was put up in a hotel and given £450 compen. An expensive error from crewing.

[angelorange]

The truth will out when industry journals start doing proper journalism!

One uk school alone pumps another 2000 low houred under nourished and broke cadets into the market every year. Are there 2000 jobs out there?

The real shortage is AIRLINE INVESTMENT. Just look at the ads for 5000h p1 on exact airframe type and subdivision! Even latest RYR ad requires significant part 25 heavy time.

So the glut of cadets get overlooked. The experienced military, TP, regional jet pilots all overlooked. Even the BA MPL scheme will cost successful candidayes a huge amount of interest payments.

Financial section of Times said airfares have dropped 20% in real terms past decade due to this madness.

[Guam360]

ETOPS:
"Think they're referring to Ryan International not RYR..."


OMG, you are joking right? really???

Seriously not funny and you should get your head out of the sand.

[calypso]

One uk school alone pumps another 2000 low houred under nourished and broke cadets into the market every year


Surely that cannot be true, maybe 200

[truckflyer]

There is a shortage within the airlines, because they are greedy and want to keep costs down.

Bean counters have calculated that they can keep costs down, by not hiring more then the minimum crew at bases around Europe.

But when people leave, which I know is a big problem for loads of LoCo's now, they start crying that pilots are greedy and unfair, and start having to cancel flights, which cost the company much more than offering crews proper conditions.

If you treat people like sh..., how can they in their twisted logic expect any loyalty in return?
What goes around, comes around, and I predict within the next 6 - 12 months, there will be a few companies with massive pilot shortage, and it might end up costing them more then they think they are saving!

I just say good riddance they have created their nest, either change or accept million losses when hundreds of flights start getting cancelled! :ugh:

[Metro man]

Back in the 1960s there were no low cost airlines therefore the legacies had to recruit from the military and general aviation or train cadets, with the inherent lead time and training costs involved.

These days they can simply strip the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet of well qualified and highly suitable people with low training costs and little lead time involved.

There will be no pilot shortage in BA but the others are a different matter.

[flyhigh85]

For the shortage in Japan it is entirely their own fault. Many local pilots are very unfriendly towards expats making it hard to live and work. They actually work against their management who want to supply their workforce with foreigners offering quite good money. As a result many expats get feed up and leave, if they even get started.

[Alexander de Meerkat]

Just to concur, there is a shortage in the States of pilots with 1500 hrs TT - and that will sort itself out pretty quickly. There is also a shortage of type-rated and available A320 and B737NG captains who are willing to re-locate to China, Vietnam etc. There is absolutely no shortage whatsoever of low-houred wannabes (which we all one were) in Europe. There are literally hundreds of unemployed pilots with very low hours and experience, most of whom will never get a commercial job. Training providers have sold a lie that the foolish and gullible just drink up like it was their last sip. That will never change and therefore there will never be a pilot shortage.

[Flying Clog]

Surely this is Darwinism at work?

I would like to think that I would never have been as stupid as the current crop of gullible idiots entering the industry with NO MARKETABLE EXPERIENCE.

I know everyone has to start somewhere, but buying a frozen ATPL and a jet rating with only 200 hours is not it. Just for the record, yes, I did start flying at 17 too, but I worked my way up the ladder. Those were the good old days!

:ugh:

[latetonite]

Agree completely.

[angelorange]

Yes one UK school can put out 2000 cadets per year (ok some of their training is abroad mostly due Wx and fuel costs) See:

CAE Oxford Aviation Academy | Top Flying Schools In the UK (http://www.toprankflyingschools.co.uk/flying_schools/cae-oxford-aviation-academy/)


Scroll down past the usual comments and you get a reality check here:

"Anonymous

Date Submitted: June 3, 2013
12345
When I read the reviews displayed here, what I feel more than anything is disappointment. You are being mislead. Not overtly however, these reviews aren’t fake, but they only represent a fraction of OAA graduates. That’d be the fraction with jobs. Those without have strong tendencies towards more negative views but keep their mouths well and truly shut due to the culture of fear and intimidation that, unfortunately, pervades at the FTO that is commonly revered as the very best. I have friends who’ve done extremely well for themselves and are very much living the flying dream with no quarrels around how they got there. I also know people who’ve been unable to procure airline employment up to 10 years after graduation and feel they are unlikely to due to underhand blacklisting practices. Hearing this back in 2006 I would have been extremely sceptical but then I was just a naïve young aspirant like yourself with lots of dreams but very little wisdom. Consider this: A ball and a bat together cost £11, the bat is £10 more expensive than the ball, how much does the ball cost?……………98% of people won’t come to the correct answer of 50p unless they really break it down, instead going for the seemingly obvious but wrong £1. This is an example of how the human brain sees what it wants to see in order to alleviate a dilemma and produce a solution. Given that this flaw is inherent in most of us, I wouldn’t berate you for disregarding my review as you want so badly to follow in the footsteps of the 5-star crowd. Well that can be done kid, and Oxford’s not too bad a place to do it, but you need to balance enthusiasm, awareness and assertive behaviour so as not to get in anybody’s bad books. There’s not enough space to list examples here but I could tell you stuff that would make your jaw drop. Seriously, you’d be in A+E having it reset. All that maudlin stuff aside there are some brilliant staff and instructors at this place who really do make the experience quite wonderful (in parts) and to re-iterate what I’ve said before this has been the starting place for many peoples dreams and may well be for yours too. Just bear in mind that they are a business and are there to make money – if a handful of rejects fall by the wayside every now and again its not reflected in their balance sheet or financial reports and ultimately they do not give a damn. This comes down to you, how badly you want this and how good you are generally at getting what you want. Oh, and don’t believe the words “looming pilot shortage”, EVER. No such thing has effected low-hours pilots since the Battle of Britain in 1940. I’ve been unemployed (discounting temp jobs) for many years now due to my assumption that paying up and passing the entry assessment would place me on a fast track course to the right hand seat of a jet with OAA looking after me the whole way. Hubris is the best term to describe that. Responsibility for the lives of hundreds of people does not get given to under-achievers, so if you’re not completely ready to commit wait until you are then go for it with everything you have. And be prepared for the fact that you might still fail regardless so have other career options to fall back on."



Just ask the UK CAA how many CPL/MPL frozen ATPLs they issue per year.