Ukraine calling for UN intervention [Archive]

henra

16th Apr 2014, 19:46

What did the person who made such a promise think we could do after years of defence cuts and reduction in manpower and equipment!

Honest Question: What would it have changed?
Or more directly: Hadn't the cuts taken place, what would be the strategy in this case?

When you send your stuff there you need to be prepared to use it. With all consequences. Read: If it comes to it, turning the Blue Planet into the Brown Planet.
Does that Sound like a good and measured idea?

Don't get me wrong.
I'm not supporting what the Russians are doing. At all.
Having made the Security 'Guarantee' was a mistake when you can't/won't enforce it, read: being ready to pay the full price. I do feel sorry for the Ukrainian People that they were mislead back then.
But unfortunately I don't see a military Option that does not involve the ultimate risk of terminating Mankind. Or it is completely meaningless. Show Of(f) Force.
Not much in between.

To put the Military aspect a bit in perspective it has to be noted that:
Even after all the Western cuts Russia is no match for the NATO regarding conventional weapons. Its usable Fighter Aircraft Fleet is roughly on the Level of the combined European Air Forces excluding Turkey.
When you count in Turkey and the US, the Russian Force is roughly 1/3rd of it. And that's on paper. Usable and up-to-date in reality probably much, much less.
They still do have, however, a very sizable and powerful Nuclear Arsenal, disproportionally more powerful than their rather average conventional Arsenal. (They have less Aircraft than the Royal Air Force plus German Air Force alone had in the late 80s and not terribly much more than Israeli plus Turkish Air Force in current terms).
Consequently, in an all- out war Putin would have to move to the Nukes rather early, since in a conventional war he would stand no realistic chance.
While you can avoid using Nukes yourself, it is hard to prevent if the Opponent feels that he has no alternative.
The difference in this sad story is: For him Ukraine is important. For the rest of the World it is not so much.
Be honest to yourself: What are you prepared to pay for it?
100$ ?
Your Son ?
End of Mankind ?

Sorry for being a bit blunt but one has to be realistic when pondering the options in such difficile affairs.

NutLoose

16th Apr 2014, 20:38

Might end that way if it does kick off and a nuclear power plant in Ukraine gets damaged, and there are a lot of them, and a lot in the East.. They got away with Chernobyl last time, next time they might not be so lucky.

smujsmith

16th Apr 2014, 21:03

Of course, there could always be international agreement, rather than willy measuring exercises, that all major players, Russia, EU, US ( I won't mention 8 pints Hague:eek:) all wind their necks in and help organise a referendum of Ukraine to determine their preference for alliance. Of course, the fact that they did that once, and it was ousted by the current, self appointed junta has simply been ignored by the West, particularly the EU, and 8 pints. Of course, we see here the classic double standard by our own government, they fully support self determination for the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar, but insist an externally imposed option is the only one that the people of Ukraine has. It strikes me that whether it be Russia or the West who end up calling the shots in Ukraine, there will always be some who oppose it, and therein lies more trouble. :ugh:

Whatever, it seems that the self appointed occupants of the Kiev parliament are determined to obtain several things;

A huge economic bailout from the west to pay their huge gas bill to Russia.

Membership of the EU so that they can export their unemployed across Europe to claim benefits, and send them home to help the economy.

As right wingers, support NATO expansion up to the Russian border, and become the "front line" in holding back the Russian bear, who haven't actually threatened to invade anyone to date I believe.

The sad thing, for someone who served from the late 60s to late 90s is that this minor, Slav, revolution has become capable of generating a truly terrible conflict between countries whose political rivalry was thought to have died with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Amazing how what goes around, comes around. perhaps I'm too thick to understand all of the "subtle nuances" of higher thought (the big picture ?) but then, I never aspired to such expertise, like most, I spent my career trusting my seniors and political policy. Somehow I have long since lost that trust.

Smudge

NutLoose

16th Apr 2014, 21:49

I spent my career trusting my seniors and political policy. Somehow I have long since lost that trust.

And that my dear chap is why we and every other country send their youth to war, their elders, see it for what it really is.... Somewhere along the line it all boils down to money and greed.. Both the USA and the UK have retired politicians on no doubt a huge fortune and pension sitting writing their memoirs on how they helped peace in this time by convincing the Ukrainians to hand over their one guaranteed defence asset for a piece of worthless rhetoric, when In fact it probably has helped destabilise the region in the long run.

300 miles from the Ukraine to Moscow, Russia as with the USA and the Cuban crisis wouldn't of had time react to the threat of a strike.

t43562

16th Apr 2014, 21:53

It's interesting that it's so frequently forgotten that the parliament was elected.

NutLoose

16th Apr 2014, 21:58

Yes, it is no different to the likes of our PM being ousted.

henra

16th Apr 2014, 22:22

As right wingers, support NATO expansion up to the Russian border, and become the "front line" in holding back the Russian bear

For the sake of a trouble free future and looking at the behaviour of some parties involved, I'm not really convinced this would be a terribly good idea.

Sometimes distance is the best way to keep trouble away. While it is always somewhat unfortunate to be the buffer, in the bigger scheme of things having a buffer makes things more relaxed and safe for all involved.
That way stupidity does not immediately lead to catastrophy.

Looking at the News today it becomes clear that Ukraine is a severely split and torn Nation. Even without direct intervention from Russia, it will be very difficult to keep the Eastern and Western Ukrainians under one Roof in the long run, it appears.
Getting involved militarily would at least mean getting involved in the next civil war. In the best case....

500N

16th Apr 2014, 22:40

"Looking at the News today it becomes clear that Ukraine is a severely split and torn Nation. "

I agree. Very divided nation.

NutLoose

16th Apr 2014, 22:42

Agreed, but a buffer works both ways, Ukraine had no interest in joining NATO militarily, the same goes for Russia... Oddly enough, NATO never invaded, Russia did..
Yes they held exercises together, but then the west also held exercises with Russia.

One just hope it doesn't go the way it went in the likes of Bosnia.

thing

16th Apr 2014, 23:25

As usual, this August I will be wending my way to Oz as I have done for many years now to spend a month with my son. On the way, sipping my Singapore Sling and dabbling at some delicacy I shall fly over Ukraine, the Crimea, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan in complete safety. It has always seemed surreal to me especially flying over Afghanistan where we fly directly over Kabul that down there my fellow countrymen are fighting and dying. I always raise my glass as we enter the border of Afghanistan to the servicemen who are seven miles below me.

It's a strange world.

rh200

16th Apr 2014, 23:51

Consequently, in an all- out war Putin would have to move to the Nukes rather early, since in a conventional war he would stand no realistic chance.
While you can avoid using Nukes yourself, it is hard to prevent if the Opponent feels that he has no alternative.
The difference in this sad story is: For him Ukraine is important. For the rest of the World it is not so much.
Be honest to yourself: What are you prepared to pay for it?

Putin is not going to go to war with the west, hes a bully. It would take sweet stuff all to actually stop him. He's doing what he is because he knows he can get away with it. I mean, oh we'll put sanctions on him, f$% me why bother, do the western pollys think we are that stupid to actually believe they mean anything.

I agree. Very divided nation.

Disagree, the demographics and polls before the conflict where you could get a half netrual assessment tells the story.

The Crimea was the only close one, as the researchers would say the older traditional Russians where very pro Russian, but a lot of the younger ones not so. What this implied was it would actually be a close call there.

In the other So called Russian parts of the country basically there was strong support, but no where near a majority. The fact is its standard system at the moment, get your supporters out on the street and make sure the others are intimidated enough to stay indoors.

ORAC

17th Apr 2014, 09:20

http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/6EC9gxlIOfh8jilrM5c9ZA--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTM5NTtweW9mZj0wO3E9NzU7dz01MDA-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/ucomics.com/jd140414.gif

ORAC

17th Apr 2014, 09:59

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said he very much hopes that he will not have to use his "right" to send Russian military forces into Ukraine amid the intensifying crisis.

"I very much hope that I am not obliged to use this right," said Putin, recalling that the Russian upper house of parliament had on March 1 authorised him to send troops onto Ukrainian territory. Putin had said that Russia's main demand was for guarantees of the protection of the rights for Russian-speakers living in south and east Ukraine*. "It is a question of guarantees for these people."

Mr Putin for the first time admits he sent Russian troops into Crimea ahead of its referendum on breaking with Kiev. "We had to take unavoidable steps so that events did not develop as they are currently developing in southeast Ukraine .. Of course our troops stood behind Crimea's self-defence forces."

Mr Putin says that southeastern Ukraine* was always part of Russia until Soviet leaders gave it to Kiev. "Why did they do that? God knows."

*Putin used the word "Novorossiya (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya)", the historical term denoting the area north of the Black Sea conquered by the Russian empire at the end of the 18th century, stretching from Donetsk to Odessa......

ORAC note - I see that area neatly brings the area claimed in Ukraine up to the border of the disputed enclave of Transnistria (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) on Moldova.

You can understand why Poland is getting twitchy and requesting NATO troops (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140416/DEFREG01/304160026/Poland-Wants-Larger-US-NATO-Troop-Presence) be based on their territory, based on the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast and their interest in a land corridor through Lithuania (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1966961.stm) and Poland (http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21599771-alliance-must-banish-suspicion-it-would-not-always-defend-its-eastern-flank-all)....

melmothtw

17th Apr 2014, 10:22

Mr Putin says that southeastern Ukraine* was always part of Russia until
Soviet leaders gave it to Kiev.

Seeing as he's all about restoring pre-Soviet borders, perhaps Putin might want to hand back Kalingrad to Germany, the Kuril Islands to Japan, and Karelia to Finland. Or maybe not.

I see he admitted today that Russian forces were involved in the Crimea takeover, having previously sworn blind they had nothing to do with it.

Ronald Reagan

17th Apr 2014, 10:57

Putin is really a brilliant leader indeed. Looking after his own people in this way. If only our own leaders would put our own people first.
Glad to see he still does not recognise the junta in Kiev as being in anyway legitimate.

melmothtw

17th Apr 2014, 11:06

Looking after his own people in this way.

Just so long as you're not gay, or a journalist, or a political opponent...

NutLoose

17th Apr 2014, 11:17

First Ukraine...... Roll on Alaska

melmothtw

17th Apr 2014, 11:35

First Ukraine...... Roll on Alaska

Someone should tell Sarah Palin, or maybe she already knows (see 'Putin's' Twitter feed below)...

Vladimir Putin‏@DarthPutinKGBApr 11 (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/454545600642809856)
I've managed to do something so stupid that it was a @SarahPalinUSA (https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA) prediction. http://goo.gl/tkhaAw (http://t.co/hzZwYYhzZq) #Ukraine (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash) #Crimea (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Crimea&src=hash)

rh200

17th Apr 2014, 12:23

Just so long as you're not gay, or a journalist, or a political opponent...

Or a Chechnen or a insert name here of any one he wants to conquer.

Vladimir Putin‏@DarthPutinKGBApr 11 (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/454545600642809856)
I've managed to do something so stupid that it was a @SarahPalinUSA (https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA) prediction. http://goo.gl/tkhaAw (http://t.co/hzZwYYhzZq) #Ukraine (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash) #Crimea (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Crimea&src=hash)

Actually I was going to mention Sarah "be still my beating heart" Palin. Was she stupid, lucky or just wise:E

Obviously Putin not stupid, its going all his own way.

ORAC

18th Apr 2014, 06:10

Alternative forms of warfare being explored.

Daily Torygraph: US financial showdown with Russia is more dangerous than it looks, for both sides (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10771069/US-financial-showdown-with-Russia-is-more-dangerous-than-it-looks-for-both-sides.html)

ORAC

18th Apr 2014, 06:42

NATO - SACEUR: Who are the Men behind the Masks? (http://www.aco.nato.int/saceur2013/blog/who-are-the-men-behind-the-masks.aspx)

It’s hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities. It’s hard to fathom because it’s simply not true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia.

President Barack Obama, Chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime Minister David Cameron, President François Hollande, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and many others have publicly stated their belief that Russian forces are behind the events in Ukraine. I would like to provide some observations from our analytical experts to help explain why I strongly agree with these world leaders.
The pro-Russian "activists” in eastern Ukraine exhibit tell-tale military training and equipment and work together in a way that is consistent with troops who are part of a long-standing unit, not spontaneously stood up from a local militia.
The weapon handling discipline and professional behavior of these forces is consistent with a trained military force. Rifle muzzles are pointed down, fingers not on triggers, but rather laid across trigger mechanisms.
Coordinated use of tear gas and stun grenades against targeted buildings indicates a level of training that exceeds a recently formed militia.
Video of these forces at checkpoints shows they are attentive, on their feet, focused on their security tasks, and under control of an apparent leader. This contrasts with typical militia or mob checkpoints, where it’s common to see people sitting, smoking, and so forth.
The way these forces target government buildings, hit them in coordinated strikes and quickly secure the surrounding area with roadblocks and barricades is similar to what we’ve seen in Crimea. Again, indicative of a professional military force, acting under direction and leadership, not a spontaneous militia.
Finally, the weapons and equipment they carry are primarily Russian army issue. This is not the kind of equipment that civilians would be likely to be able to get their hands on in large numbers.
Any one of the points above taken alone would not be enough to come to a conclusion on this issue, but taken in the aggregate, the story is clear.

In my blog last month (http://www.aco.nato.int/saceur2013/blog/the-importance-of-identity.aspx) I spoke about the importance of identifying the Russian troops in Crimea. Today, the Russian president has finally admitted that Russian troops were there after denying it repeatedly early on. Also today he claimed that the idea of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine was "rubbish.” I would ask that you keep this in mind as you consider your answer to the question "Who are the men behind the masks in eastern Ukraine, today?”

I would also urge you to research this topic on your own and read a few of these examples:

1. You Tube Shatters Russian Lies About Troops In Ukraine: Putin Denies Truth To Obama (http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/04/14/you-tube-shatters-russian-lies-about-troops-in-ukraine/)

2. Putin acknowledges Russian military serviceman were in Crimea (http://rt.com/news/crimea-defense-russian-soldiers-108/)

3. Ukraine submits proof of Russian covert action (http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/ukraine-submits-proof-russian-covert-action-301601)

4. The Science of Unmasking Russian Forces in Ukraine (http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/04/science-unmasking-russian-forces-ukraine/82693/?oref=d-topstory)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Streetwise Professor: Ukraine Update: Charlie Brown, Lucy, the Organ Grinder and His Monkey (http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=8364)

rh200

18th Apr 2014, 06:53

I think every one accepts their are Russian troops controlling things, they stand out like dogs balls. You have the layer of rabble, backed up by another layer of loose militia and in the background you can see the profesionals.

Trim Stab

18th Apr 2014, 09:08

The pro-Russian "activists” in eastern Ukraine exhibit tell-tale military training and equipment and work together in a way that is consistent with troops who are part of a long-standing unit, not spontaneously stood up from a local militia.
The weapon handling discipline and professional behavior of these forces is consistent with a trained military force. Rifle muzzles are pointed down, fingers not on triggers, but rather laid across trigger mechanisms.
Coordinated use of tear gas and stun grenades against targeted buildings indicates a level of training that exceeds a recently formed militia.
Video of these forces at checkpoints shows they are attentive, on their feet, focused on their security tasks, and under control of an apparent leader. This contrasts with typical militia or mob checkpoints, where it’s common to see people sitting, smoking, and so forth.
The way these forces target government buildings, hit them in coordinated strikes and quickly secure the surrounding area with roadblocks and barricades is similar to what we’ve seen in Crimea. Again, indicative of a professional military force, acting under direction and leadership, not a spontaneous militia.
Finally, the weapons and equipment they carry are primarily Russian army issue. This is not the kind of equipment that civilians would be likely to be able to get their hands on in large numbers.

Not a very conclusive or persuasive argument since every Ukraine male has to do compulsory military service (either one year as a soldier or two years as an officer).

I am not claiming that there are no Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but I take a very jaundiced view of the claims made by UK and US politicians about Russian soldiers in Ukraine as they have been caught lying too often before (Kuwaiti incubator babies, Jessica Lynch comedy stories, MI6 dodgy dossier).

NutLoose

18th Apr 2014, 10:41

I'm surprised an agreement has been hacked out, implementing it is another thing, however why do I not see the Crimea mentioned in any of the press reports, one would almost say Putin is playing them, having riled up the East to bring it to the table as a bargaining chip to deflect the emphasis away from Crimea.

peter we

18th Apr 2014, 11:27

NutLoose

18th Apr 2014, 11:54

I still can't get over Putin saying he has the right to invade another country.. He is beginning to sound like Hitler

peter we

18th Apr 2014, 12:03

Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Union/Russian Empire. He's said it often enough.

Comparisons to Hitler are perfectly valid.

Ronald Reagan

18th Apr 2014, 13:18

The west also assumes it has the right to invade or attack other nations, for example Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. They also wanted to attack Syria but luckily thanks to President Putin that never happened. To grab Ukraine the west carried out a coup in Ukraine, Russia is simply responding to this and supporting those who do not back that coup. I would imagine if we go back and look carefully one will find that the uprisings in Libya and Syria were also western created events just to create the false need for military attacks by the west.

Lonewolf_50

18th Apr 2014, 13:37

Not a very conclusive or persuasive argument since every Ukraine male has to do compulsory military service (either one year as a soldier or two years as an officer).

I am not claiming that there are no Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but I take a very jaundiced view of the claims made by UK and US politicians about Russian soldiers in Ukraine as they have been caught lying too often (Kuwaiti incubator babies, Jessica Lynch comedy stories, MI6 dodgy dossier). Nice combination you provided us with:
The italics highlighted stuff is a non sequitur. You have chosen as your presumption the reverse halo effect, which adds up to serious confirmation bias. Your argument/refutation fails.

Another point: one year conscripts may or may not be able to retain enough professionalism to informally handle these infiltration situations without a well established command structure and task training. Most of us who have served in uniform will bet the under on folks with one year of compulsory service being disciplined to that degree.

Professionals who train for such tasks have both the task training and command structure to retain their discipline.

The streetwise professor's analysis is far more complete and supported than your throwaway.

Not even a nice try, though I'll agree with you that it's most likely a mix of Russians and some locals on the pro Russian social demographic.

NutLoose

18th Apr 2014, 15:41

Trim Stab

18th Apr 2014, 16:13

The 'claim' that the soldiers are Russian doesn't come from UK/US politicians, it comes from Ukrainians.

I believe the the claims of Ukrainian politicians even less than I believe the claims of our own politicians.

The so-called Ukrainian government has never been elected and so cannot pretend to speak for the Ukrainian people. It is clear that many eastern Ukrainians want nothing to do with the Kiev regime because they are not represented.

We have only ourselves to blame for this mess because we did nothing to support the former democratically elected President of Ukraine, and stood by while he was toppled. It is inevitable now that Ukraine will split.

Lonewolf_50

18th Apr 2014, 17:41

Who is "we" and why do you assign that blame?
It is inevitable now that Ukraine will split.

Only if pressure continues to be applied externally ... which at the moment, seems to be coming from their large eastern neighbor.

AtomKraft

18th Apr 2014, 18:04

What Putin's done is wrong, and perhaps the west ought to intervene.
Sadly, with our last two misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, whatever moral authority we had has gone.
This is the true cost of Iraq.
Once you start wars under specious circumstances, it becomes hard to act even when action is justified.

Trim Stab

18th Apr 2014, 18:57

Lonewolf -

Pro-Russian groups to stay put in east Ukraine until referendum takes place | World news | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/18/pro-russian-groups-occupations-eastern-ukraine-kiev-geneva-deal)

International attempts to de-escalate tensions in Ukraine were floundering on Friday as separatist groups in the east declared that they had no intention of leaving occupied buildings and accused Kiev of violating an agreement reached in Geneva on Thursday.

Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the United States struck a diplomatic deal in the Swiss city, following seven hours of talks, that was supposed to see illegal groups withdraw from municipal buildings and hand in their weapons.

Twenty-four hours later there were no signs that any of the anti-government groups were preparing to budge. Instead, protest leaders said they would continue their occupations until their demands were met. A rebel militia seized an administration building in Seversk, a small town outside the regional capital Donetsk.

At a press conference on FridayDenis Pushilin, the self-styled leader of the "Donetsk People's Republic", said his supporters would stay put until a referendum on the region's future status was held. He dismissed the current pro-western government in Kiev as illegitimate. "We will continue our activity," he declared.

Pushilin said no meaningful de-escalation was possible while Ukraine's interim prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and president Olexsandr Turchynov were still in their jobs. "We understand that everyone has to leave buildings or nobody does. Yatsenyuk and Turchynov should vacate theirs first," he said.

Moscow's envoy to the European Union reitereated this position, telling Russian state television that authorities in Kiev had "incorrectly interpreted" the Geneva deal. He said Ukraine's new leadership mistakenly believed that the deal "only applies to the eastern and southern provinces" when it also applied to "the ongoing occupation of Maidan [Independence Square in Kiev]".

Pro-Russian separatists grabbed a string of public buildings across eastern Ukraine a week ago. The militia units – some of them similar to the armed "little green men" who appeared in Crimea in February – have occupied them ever since. Nato says the separatists include professionally trained undercover Russian soldiers. Moscow denies this.

In Kiev, Ukraine's acting foreign minister Andriy Deshchytsia said the next few days would demonstrate whether Russia actually intended to implement the Geneva deal, signed by Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. "I don't know Russia's intentions. But minister Lavrov did promise that they want to de-escalate. So we will see in a few days if it was [a] sincere promise and sincere participation."

The separatists, however, seem in little mood to give ground. Pushilin said Kiev had already violated the Geneva accord by refusing to pull its military units from the east of Ukraine. "They have not withdrawn their forces out from Slavyansk," he said. Beleaguered Ukrainian troops ccupy a rustic aerodrome close to Slavyansk, north of Donetsk, and neighbouring Kramatorsk. On Wednesday they suffered the ultimate humiliation when armed separatists, seemingly led by Russian officers, seized six armoured vehicles from them and drove off.

Pushilin delivered his anti-Kiev message to Russian state television, which had turned up to interview him. He was speaking from the 11th-floor of Donetsk's regional administration building, now a sprawling camp of anti-government and anti-western protest.

Pushilin describes himself as the "people's governor". He appeared to be reading from a carefully-drafted script. Several media advisers sat nearby. He told Russian television that Kiev was denying the local population access to insulin and withholding desperately needed medical supplies. He asked ordinary Russians to donate money to a numbered account with Russia's Sberbank to help the cause.

A local businessman, Pushilin and other deputies from the "Donetsk People's Republic" are entirely self-appointed. Their key demand is a referendum on federalisation by 11 May, two weeks before presidential elections. It is unclear what questions might be included. Their goal is to create an autonomous eastern republic separate from Kiev. After that most want the new republic to join the Russian Federation, in imitation of Crimea annexed by Moscow last month.

Kiev says Pushilin and other separatist leaders are under the control of Russia's spy agencies.

Visiting Donetsk yesterday, Ukraine's former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko denounced Russian interference and said that Russia's special forces had been highly active across the east of the country. She said she was in Donetsk to negotiate with pro-Russian protesters, conceding that Ukrainian and Russian speakers now had to make "compromises" if a solution to the crisis was to be found. She said this compromise could be achieved if Russia withdrew its agents from eastern Ukraine but warned of violence if it did not.

Tymoshenko – whose pro-western party dominates the new government – said that she was creating a "resistance movement" militia to fight for Ukraine's territorial integrity. This would be an armed force made up of volunteers with military experience, she said: "We will do everything to restore harmony and peace in our country and to stop aggression. But if it doesn't happen we are ready to defend ourselves … with weapons in hand."

Tymoshenko ruled out holding a regional referendum, saying that it didn't match constitutional requirements, and adding that Kiev "can't recognise it". "We don't want anyone to demand that Ukrainians vote in a referendum under the barrels of Russian weapons," she said.

We (i.e. US and Europe) should have vociferously condemned the Maiden movement instead of tacitly supporting it in the forlorn hope that a pro-west Ukraine would emerge.

Even now, where is the condemnation of Tymoshenko's outrageously provocative statements that she is refusing to countenance a regional referendum because it is unconstitutional (what constitution?) and will instead form a "resistance movement" to "defend ourselves"? Defend "ourselves" against what? She has never been elected by anybody and has no mandate to speak for the Ukraine.

Lonewolf_50

18th Apr 2014, 20:09

Trim Stab:
I appreciate your skepticism on the virtue of the "West's" approach to Ukraine's various internal political struggles, and the usual problem of "choosing sides" as regards someone else's political struggles. What little I know of Ukraine politics suggests to me a fairly corrupt political environment, with dirty hands aplenty regardless of which party holds one's affiliation.
But hold on, my friend. She has never been elected by anybody and has no mandate to speak for the Ukraine. Isn't she a former prime minister? Doesn't that require being elected? :confused: Yulia Tymoshenko entered politics in 1996, when she was elected to the Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) in constituency #229, Bobrynets, Kirovohrad Oblast, winning a record 92.3% of the vote. She tried to run for president and lost, too bad for her. She also got tossed into jail (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/23/yulia-tymoshenko-she-s-no-angel.html#url=/articles/2014/02/23/yulia-tymoshenko-she-s-no-angel.html), which is a fine place for any politician. :p

Any number of blowhards in my own country talk about defending America, or whatever, and she is a leading member of a political group in the Ukraine. She has every right to sound off about such things, and we consumers of political noise will add such grains, pinches, or buckets full of salt as needed to said utterances.

Sounding off is what political people do. Is she blowing a lot of hot air? Sure, at least in part if not in total, since she's a political sort. :p (And a rich one to boot).

rh200

18th Apr 2014, 22:06

Not a very conclusive or persuasive argument since every Ukraine male has to do compulsory military service (either one year as a soldier or two years as an officer).

Close enough, considering the quality of Ukrainian troops we have seen so far, the so called "non Russian" soldiers are an order of magnitude better trained.

I am not claiming that there are no Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but I take a very jaundiced view of the claims made by UK and US politicians about Russian soldiers in Ukraine as they have been caught lying too often before

What can you say, situation normal, the "truth" is always modulated, for public comsuption. The trick with this one is to watch as many of the independent reporters as possible. The fact there has been a few minor stuff ups by the various "non Russians" have put it from the we know what your doing relm into fact.

The west also assumes it has the right to invade or attack other nations, for example Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. They also wanted to attack Syria but luckily thanks to President Putin that never happened.

"The west" is not an entity Ronald, thats your first problem, creating a boogy man to satisfy your need for an enemy. The west is a collection of countries who can barely agree on anything let alone invade countrys.

America definaitly knows it has no right to invade countrys, thats why it goes to extreme length to find legal grounds, when it sees the need.

I would imagine if we go back and look carefully one will find that the uprisings in Libya and Syria were also western created events just to create the false need for military attacks by the west.

Created would be a bit strong, but supported would be better, something that they had a hand in was Egypt as well. The only reason they have gotten their hands dirty in any of those conflicts is when the authoritys have responded with atrocities. Something I don't disagree with in principle, just the trigger point.

We have only ourselves to blame for this mess because we did nothing to support the former democratically elected President of Ukraine, and stood by while he was toppled.

No we chose to support the democratically elected parliment.

It is inevitable now that Ukraine will split.
Only if Russia keeps its finger in the pie and keeps its forces their. As has been stated before, the demographics do not lie. The Russians don't have the numbers in the east, yes their are smaller enclaves you could use, but not whole large regions. Polls before this mess clearly show this.

Ronald Reagan

18th Apr 2014, 22:48

rh200, the Ukrainian parliament did not have the right to remove the President the way they did. They did not follow proper procedures and not enough MPs were actually present to remove him.

While some western countries may disobey Washington on occasion when it comes down to it they obey their masters. Many of our western nations are simply puppet states.

The west might try to find legal means but will simply do it without if they need to. It would not be so bad if the interventions were not such a disaster such as Iraq and Libya. We should have simply left Saddam and Gaddafi in power. Those nations would have been far more stable

Luckily we now have the rise of Russia, China and India. Hopefully they can bring balance to the world. They are getting sick of what they term ''western arrogance'' as are many other nations especially in Asia and South America. The old order is over folks!

N2erk

19th Apr 2014, 02:11

This isn't a straightforward issue- not like the soviet Prague spring or the US Bay of Pigs invasion. Take Yulia T for example- please-she must have an evil (or angelic twin). I read today somewhere that she was going to visit Donetsk today and talk and listen to the protesters and wanted to work together/peace& love&flowers/freedom etc etc and now she's creating her own army - I didn't read about that in the Geneva accord. She's an unindicted (sp?) co-conspirator in a US fraud/money laundering prosecution, reputedly has lots of $$ in multi accounts Exclusive: UK banks in row over Yulia Tymoshenko 'millions' - Crime - UK - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/exclusive-uk-banks-in-row-over-yulia-tymoshenko-millions-9177693.html) ( I wish I could say the same!) was voted out of office in favour of Yanukovich, who she now accuses of being corrupt. This is just one of a panoply of questionable characters. We are told over and over about the Russian operatives in the East, but the head of EU intelligence (no nasty remarks please) Commodore Georgij Alafuzoff denies it EU:n tiedustelujohtaja: Venäjä ei ole asemoitunut sotilaallisesti Ukrainaan | Yle Uutiset | yle.fi (http://yle.fi/uutiset/eun_tiedustelujohtaja_venaja_ei_ole_asemoitunut_sotilaallise sti_ukrainaan/7190544) or http://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&sl=fi&u=http://yle.fi/uutiset/eun_tiedustelujohtaja_venaja_ei_ole_asemoitunut_sotilaallise sti_ukrainaan/7190544&prev=/search%3Fq%3DGeorgij%2BAlafuzoff%2Byle%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3DGh7%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26channel%3Dsb and from Kyevpost arrested protesters turn out to be locals Kharkiv officials: Detained protesters are residents of city and region (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/kharkiv-officials-detained-protesters-are-residents-of-city-and-region-342510.html) .

Russian troops are massed menacingly on the border, but an NBC film team drove 800 miles and couldn't find them Tour of Ukraine-Russia Border Finds No Signs of Military Buildup - NBC News (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/tour-ukraine-russia-border-finds-no-signs-military-buildup-n67336) Most of the pictures I see of 'protesters' don't look like youths, but decrepit old people like me, albeit in camo. Maybe thats why they have some organizational ability.

Ukraine isn't some despotic wo**y country- it was for 20+ years a democracy. Issues are therefore far more complex and 'truth' very subjective. The US, Canada and EU encouraged the Maidan uprising, rather than preaching- 'suck it up and wait for the next election" like we all have to do in a democracy. Now we, or rather they, live with the aftermath.

Thus endeth the lesson..... (sorry about the print fonts, but I can't seem to change it)

ORAC

19th Apr 2014, 07:36

N2erk, maybe you should write to the Kremlin press spokesman and tell him to stick to the agreed line.......

Kremlin Spokesman Admits Troops Stationed At Ukraine Border (http://www.rferl.org/content/kremlin-spokesman-admits-troops-stationed-at-ukraine-border/25354854.html)

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed that Russia does have troops near the Ukrainian border and that some of those forces are stationed there "on a permanent basis."

Peskov said additional forces are in the area along Russia's border with Ukraine but only "as reinforcement aganst the background of what is going on in Ukraine."..........

rh200

19th Apr 2014, 08:28

While some western countries may disobey Washington on occasion when it comes down to it they obey their masters. Many of our western nations are simply puppet states.

Haaa, thanks Ronald, I needed a good laugh. on occasion, I think the words Washington hears most form its allies is NO, or get stuffed. F$%^ me I thin k the only to countrys that stick with the yanks come wind or snow is us and the poms. Apologies those I have missed.

Luckily we now have the rise of Russia, China and India. Hopefully they can bring balance to the world.

Excellant, two jokes in one post. Maybe the Indians if they can keep their own country stable. The other two at the barrel of gun would be about it.

N2erk

19th Apr 2014, 19:00

I've tried ORAC, but they dont return my calls- maybe its cause I call collect. Seriously, if you watched the NBC film report they did confirm helos at a base and some trucks, but no tanks or other heavy equipment close to the border, as Youtube and MSM were reporting at the time. It was a good reality check and it was on US MSM. If you have a problem with the article, please contact Mr Maceda or NBC news.

ORAC

20th Apr 2014, 15:38

:hmm::hmm::hmm:

Ukraine Says Russia Preparing Grounds for Invasion (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-20/ukraine-says-russia-preparing-invasion-grounds.html)

Ukraine forces accuse Russia of staging shooting (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/20/us-ukraine-crisis-slaviansk-security-idUSBREA3J0BR20140420)

Ukraine Separatists Plead for Putin’s Help After Deadly Gunfight (http://time.com/69365/ukraine-separatists-gunfight-seek-aid-from-putin/)

......In a statement to TIME, the self-proclaimed mayor of the town of Slavyansk, the separatist stronghold in eastern Ukraine, said he was imposing a citywide curfew and sending more of his militants to patrol the streets after the violence. “Last night, at a time of truce and Easter prayer, and in violation of the agreed upon ceasefire, our town was attacked,” the putative mayor, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, said in the statement transmitted through his spokeswoman on Sunday morning........ “Vladimir Vladimirovich, ours is a small, provincial town,” Ponomaryov said in a public appeal to Putin later in the day. “And fascists are trying to conquer us. They are killing our brothers, carrying out open military actions against the people. We therefore ask that you urgently consider the question of sending a peacekeeping force to protect the civilian population.”.........

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/waPGh3GPaLptL.qL5_fDhA--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTM0ODtweW9mZj0wO3E9NzU7dz01MDA-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/ucomics.com/po140415.gif

Just under 3 weeks until EURES Day.... (https://ec.europa.eu/eures/main.jsp?lang=en&catId=9659&myCatId=9659&parentId=20&acro=news&function=newsOnPortal) :hmm::hmm::hmm:

rh200

20th Apr 2014, 22:34

The shooting was most likely a classic set up by the Russians. The right wing extremists that are pro Ukrainian are dumb, but not that dumb.

With the Russians poised at the border ready to bring another 100 years of Russian jack boot peace keeping and genocide and rape to the people of Ukraine, they wouldn't chance it.

I think this style of attack was already predicted in one of the threads.

henra

21st Apr 2014, 09:49

With the Russians poised at the border ready to bring another 100 years of Russian jack boot peace keeping and genocide and rape to the people of Ukraine

Under which Rock have you slept since the demise of Stalin? :E

rh200

21st Apr 2014, 10:35

It appears that Russian reporters do have a backbone after all.

Russian parliament deputy speaker tells aide to ?violently rape? pregnant journalist on live TV (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/04/21/russian-politician-orders-aide-to-violently-rape-pregnant-journalist-on-live-tv/?tid=hp_mm)

'Run to her and start raping her hard' (http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/russian-leader-run-to-her-and-start-raping-her-5365106.html)

A six-month pregnant reporter is being treated for shock after a right-wing politician ordered his aides to 'violently rape her' after she asked an

It seems that telling one of your aids to go and rape a pregnant collegue is a bit much.

Wonder if he's related to Vlad.

ORAC

21st Apr 2014, 11:01

First you make them citizens, then you have the right to "protect" them, wherever they live, not just Ukraine, but also the Baltic states. Putin hasn't changed his spots - or his intensions (http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2023370918_putinempirexml.html)....... :hmm:

New citizenship shortcut for Russian-speakers of Soviet, Imperial ancestry (http://rt.com/politics/russian-citizenship-ancestors-language-764/)

President Vladimir Putin has signed into force simpler and faster rules for granting citizenship to people who speak Russian, and have at least one ancestor who was a permanent resident of any state within the borders of the current Russian Federation. The bill on the simplified granting of Russian citizenship becomes valid today Monday, April 21.......

To benefit from the new program, a person must have documented proof that at least one of his or her direct ancestors was a permanent resident of the Soviet Union or the Tsarist Russian Empire who lived on the territory of the current Russian Federation. Another condition is good command of Russian, but a complicated and lengthy exam is replaced with a simpler interview.

While most of the candidates would have to renounce their foreign citizenship to become Russians under the new procedure, exceptions are made in cases when doing this would be legally impossible. The program also can be applied to people without citizenship, which is the case for many ethnic Russians who live in the Baltic states but cannot obtain the citizenship and live under non-citizens status......

henra

21st Apr 2014, 11:03

@rh200
All kidding aside, but I hope you don't want to belittle the gruelties that have been committed by Stalin and his aides back then by comparing them to such individual excesses which are not to be condoned in any way but are individual acts as compared to the mass genocide and atrocities back then.
What do you try to achieve by comparing that?

OK, Russia today is far from a pure Democracy and the trend is not looking really good in that regard. Putin and his subordinates are behaving badly and are actively supporting some dubious leaders and groups (That said, we as the West are not totally innocent in that regard either). By doing so he is harming his own People in the longer run. But this is very far from the Situation back in the dark Ages.
Don't get to carried away in your hatred.

Lonewolf_50

21st Apr 2014, 12:19

Russian parliament deputy speaker tells aide to ?violently rape? pregnant journalist on live TV (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/04/21/russian-politician-orders-aide-to-violently-rape-pregnant-journalist-on-live-tv/?tid=hp_mm)
'Run to her and start raping her hard' (http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/russian-leader-run-to-her-and-start-raping-her-5365106.html)
It seems that telling one of your aids to go and rape a pregnant collegue is a bit much.
As reported, it made even less sense, given all the various rantings he was spitting forth.
Zhirinovsky ... called for the eviction of all McDonald’s in Russia. Even Putin has told Zhirinovsky to cool it.
V Putin likes the occasional Big Mac, I suppose. :E
Referring to Kiev’s Maidan protests, which ignited a series of events that have pushed Ukraine and Russia to the brink of war, the politician yelled, “You women of the Maidan all have uterine frenzy! Without that uterine frenzy there wouldn’t have been Maidan.”
I had to look up the term. Uterine frenzy - From the Latin: furor uterinus,uncontrollable sexual desire in a woman. (nymphomania) (So, what's he got against nymphos? :confused: )
... he brought up Ukrainian nationalist Iryna Farion. “You think she hates Russians? She loves them! Uterine frenzy, no lover, no husband present, nothing! She has a beast between her legs! And that fire devil rushes upward through her dumb [expletive] tongue.”
I think he's got a crush on her.
He pushed the aide at her and shouted, “Christ is risen! Truly he is risen! Christ is risen! Truly he is risen!” I guess he was all caught up in the Easter spirit, but I thought the Orthodox Easter and Western Easter came during different weeks. :confused:
Another journalist confronted the ranting politician, telling him that her fellow reporter was pregnant. Zhirinovsky responded by calling her a “damned lesbian.” What?
“This isn’t a place for pregnant people!” he shouted. ”If you’re pregnant, go home. Better take care of your child!”
I have a new nickname for Zhirinovsky: Touretteski. He's all over the map. :confused: Now that I think of it, this gent would fit right in on Capital Hill. He's lost the plot.

rh200

21st Apr 2014, 13:31

Uterine frenzy

What gets me is Uterine frenzy actually has meaning. I can go around asking where all the "Uterine frenzy women" are.

henra

21st Apr 2014, 15:28

I have a new nickname for Zhirinovsky: Touretteski. He's all over the map. :confused: Now that I think of it, this gent would fit right in on Capital Hill. He's lost the plot.

No, I'm afraid, he hasn't just lost the plot. He most definitely never had it.
He was a Weirdo since he appeared on the political stage back somewhere in the early 90's. He was a through and through Nationalist back then and still is and has his own Party ever since.
Despite Putin now going also somewhat into a Russian Nationalist direction Zhirinovsky is in a whole different league in this regard and ever has been.

Putin is using this as a vehicle for keeping his own power and stance in popular opinion, especially since it became clear he lost the fight against the corrupt local Government structures in Russia.
In contrast, Zhirinovski actually truely believes what he spouts.
Big difference.

Lonewolf_50

21st Apr 2014, 17:19

henra:

I do recall Touretteski's name being in the papers a lot in the 90's. What I can't reconcile is the random juxtaposition of those rants. Maybe the reporter left out other stuff that would have made the flow seem more coherent, albeit "off the wall."

If not, then the Allman Brothers have a song about Touretteski and the plot:

Can't Lose What You Never Had (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iutwA_dsfxE&feature=kp)

ORAC

22nd Apr 2014, 10:52

Washington Post: A Putin affiliate evokes Hitler. The West should be worried. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/richard-cohen-a-putin-affiliate-evokes-hitler-the-west-should-be-worried/2014/04/21/ddbd3794-c980-11e3-95f7-7ecdde72d2ea_story.html?hpid=z2)

Is Andranik Migranyan right?

The head of a think tank associated with Vladimir Putin wrote the following (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-crimea-and-the-good-hitler/25322600.html) in response to critics who liken the Russian president to Adolf Hitler and what he did so long ago: “One must distinguish between Hitler before 1939 and Hitler after 1939. The thing is that Hitler collected [German] lands. If he had become famous only for uniting without a drop of blood Germany with Austria, Sudetenland and Memel, in fact completing what Bismarck failed to do, and if he had stopped there, then he would have remained a politician of the highest class.”

Migranyan’s comment, published in a Russian newspaper, has received quite a bit of attention, both because of his position and for its chilling content. There is no doubt that Hitler crossed a line in September 1939 when he invaded Poland, finally forcing Britain and France to go to war. (Maybe Migranyan remembers that the Soviet Union also invaded Poland.) Up to then, Hitler had mostly satisfied himself with collecting the lands of German-speaking peoples — Austria, the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia, etc. — although Poland also had a substantial German minority.

If something like this is what Putin has in mind — gathering Russian-speaking people under his rule — then Migranyan seems to be saying: What’s the big deal? What he does not mention, though, is that by 1939 Hitler was already engaged in killing Jews, dissidents, communists, homosexuals and, that year, the mentally and physically feeble. Kristallnacht, a government-sanctioned pogrom, occurred in 1938; the Nuremberg laws, depriving Jews of their civil rights, were promulgated in 1935; and Germany was rapidly re-arming, in violation of its treaty obligations. It was, way before 1939, an outlaw state vigorously engaged in murder.

For anyone, least of all a think-tank director, to overlook this record is frightening. Maybe, though, Migranyan did not overlook it. Maybe he was simply reciting a fact: What Hitler did to his own people disturbed the West but did not stir it to action. Indeed, many argued that Hitler had a point: Germans belonged in Germany. As for the Jews, they were often blamed for their own plight.

You hear similar arguments now about Putin and Russian-speaking peoples: Crimea is Russian. Eastern Ukraine is Russian. Maybe some of the Baltic states are Russian, too. Who knows?

I would never compare anyone to Hitler. He remains in a category of one. And I would not, either, get too carried away about Russian rhetoric at the moment. The denunciation of dissidents as “traitors” may just be the Russian version of Fox News excess of the type we heard in the run-up to the war in Iraq. (Check YouTube to see what I mean.) At the same time, there are contrary signs — the election of Putin critics to this or that office and the distinct lack of Nazi-style rhetoric regarding minorities. Specifically, Putin seems free of anti-Semitism.

Still, what are we to make of Migranyan? He did not write in a vacuum. The Kremlin is stifling dissent. The Russian foreign minister is either lying with abandon or blithely passing lies on — or both. So-called green men, troops with their faces shielded and their identifying insignias missing, have circulated through eastern Ukraine, as they did in Crimea. Ukrainian and some Western intelligence agencies identify them as Russian, even down to providing the names of certain individuals. These are similar to the techniques Hitler used to provoke intervention in neighboring countries. He was forever coming to the rescue of embattled German minorities.

Migranyan and presumably Putin live in a different era. They think the line they must not cross is one that will provoke a truly punishing Western reaction — such as seizing parts of the Baltic states. But they have already crossed a line. The West, including Barack Obama, knows that Putin cannot be trusted. He is a liar — and not a very good one. (He once said no Russian troops went into Crimea but later admitted they had.) He is at heart an autocrat who wants to re-create as much of the old Soviet empire as he can.

The consequences of all this are not yet clear. It is clear, though, that the Russia of Gorbachev and Yeltsin is gone and something new and yet familiar has taken its place. The Obama administration recognizes the new reality and is appropriately dusting off Cold War playbooks. Russia, it seems, may be turning its back on Europe — but not, ominously, on some of its ugly 20th-century history.

Trim Stab

22nd Apr 2014, 11:27

Is Andranik Migranyan right?

No - because I don't think Putin wants Eastern Ukraine. If he annexes Eastern Ukraine, then the remainder of Ukraine will vote to orientate themselves towards EU and NATO. Putin will then eventually have a NATO country on his border.

If he leaves Eastern Ukraine alone, and works with the West to ensure that what is left of Ukraine becomes a functioning democracy, then it is unlikely to ever vote for EU or NATO membership, and Russia will be able to maintain some sort of influence over its neighbour.

Crimea was different (in his eyes) because it had a very substantial Russian majority and has always historically been part of Russia.

Martin the Martian

22nd Apr 2014, 11:47

But Putin has also suggested that Ukraine is broken up into autonomous federal republics, which of course would be much easier for him to pick off one by one.

ORAC

22nd Apr 2014, 12:02

Crimea was different (in his eyes) because it ....... has always historically been part of Russia. Only since it was invaded by Catherine the Great in 1783...

When Catherine the Great Invaded the Crimea and Put the Rest of the World on Edge (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-catherine-great-invaded-crimea-and-put-rest-world-edge-180949969/?no-ist)

Lonewolf_50

22nd Apr 2014, 12:37

But Putin has also suggested that Ukraine is broken up into autonomous federal republics, which of course would be much easier for him to pick off one by one.
Like the West helped to do with Yugoslavia and Serbia, if recent history is something you are interested in. ;)
ORAC:
In 1774, Pugachev led 20,000 peasants in the capture of the Russian city of Kazan, setting fire to the city and slaughtering noble families. Catherine’s troops responded to the violence with violence. Pugachev and hundreds of his supporters were executed and thousands more were flogged or mutilated.
I am wondering why the author has an issue with this. :confused: Rebellions are put down hard, and it's rarely pretty. (Our four year civil war was seen by many in the North as a rebellion, particularly those who were later in the "Radical Reconstructionist" group.)

ORAC

22nd Apr 2014, 12:51

Are you really trying to draw a comparison between the current situation in Ukraine and the break-up of Yugoslavia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakup_of_Yugoslavia#The_beginning_of_the_Yugoslav_Wars) genocide in Bosnia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_Genocide) which lead to external intervention? :ugh::ugh:

Lonewolf_50

22nd Apr 2014, 13:00

As a matter of fact, yes, there's a parallel. In any given nation there are fault lines, some more severe than others.

The fault lines in Yugoslavia, after Tito went west, were exploited by those within and without the country. The number of fifth column Iranian/Pasdaran, for example, in Bosnia were at the hightest count I ever got from our intel section around two hundred.

The American government spent millions of dollars on contractors who trained Croats and Bosnian Croats how to run a coordinated military operation, which led to pushing the Kraijina Serbs out while Serbia proper was being held back by NATO forces/threat of force.

The bombing of Belgrade and Serbia for over 70 days over the Kosovars a few years later was the West deconstructing Serbia even further. Foreigners interfering with other nations, in a big way.

Now, was the intervention into the Yugoslavia civil war warranted? By Europeans, as it was in their back yard, I'd say so. They didn't like that crap going on in their neighborhood. Oddly enough, the Germans (one of the Powers of Europe once again) sat it out. :confused:

Is there a like genocide afoot in Ukraine? Not yet, nor a civil war just yet ... but there was a hell of a lot more to the mess in Yugoslavia, and it's component parts, than the genocide in Bosnia. You could do a bit of research and look at the links between Croatia and Germany as Croatia successfully seceded, as did Slovenia. If you really want an insight into that mess in Yugoslavia, talk to a Greek ... not an American, nor a Brit, nor a German, nor a Frenchman. The Greek officers I served with had a completely different view of the intervention in Former Yugoslavia than what you seem to have consumed and assumed.

There are fault lines in Ukraine. People outside are exploiting them, as are people inside. In that respect, it is similar with the potential for more gunplay and a sizeable body count.

henra

22nd Apr 2014, 19:20

There are fault lines in Ukraine. People outside are exploiting them, as are people inside. In that respect, it is similar with the potential for more gunplay and a sizeable body count.

Very well said!
That pretty much sums up the situation in Ukraine and explains a lot of this mess.
Things are often not quite as clear cut as they seem at first glance or as seen through the media filter.
Putin is playing games. But he is not the first to do so in this chess game over the influence sphere in Eastern Europe.
Big playground.

rh200

23rd Apr 2014, 01:01

There are fault lines in Ukraine. People outside are exploiting them, as are people inside

That could be said of any of the situations that have occured in memory, situation normal. The difference is when you actually have troops on the ground playing backstop, as Russia has. Where not talking about a couple of advisors here.

They may not have insignia, but there's actually very little doubt that there is highly trained troops on the ground coordinating.

ORAC

23rd Apr 2014, 05:39

Sums that argument up nicely.....

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/ylrKFGvcxXRZFjMXLv_JiQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTI5NztweW9mZj0wO3E9NzU7dz01MDA-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/ucomics.com/aria140421.gif

ORAC

23rd Apr 2014, 15:55

Russia warns Ukraine could see Georgia repeat if interests threatened (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10782295/Russia-warns-Ukraine-could-see-Georgia-repeat-if-interests-threatened.html)

Foreign minister says Russia will respond, as in South Ossetia, if its citizens are attacked

Russia will respond if its interests are attacked in Ukraine, as they were in South Ossetia in 2008 which led to war with Georgia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said. Issuing a blunt warning, Mr Lavrov said: "If we are attacked, we would certainly respond. If our interests, our legitimate interests, the interests of Russians have been attacked directly, like they were in South Ossetia for example, I do not see any other way but to respond in full accordance with international law."

Mr Lavrov did not elaborate further on what the response would entail but the reference to Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia strongly hints at the possibility of military action.In August 2008 Russia sent troops into South Ossetia and then into Tbilisi-controlled Georgian territory after then president Mikheil Saakashvili tried to reestablish control over the breakaway region. Russia then recognised South Ossetia and another breakaway Georgian region, Abkhazia, as independent in defiance of the West.

"Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation," Mr Lavrov told Russia Today, which published excerpts of the English-language interview to be broadcast later Wednesday..........

dazdaz1

23rd Apr 2014, 16:07

I'm looking at this scenario...... If English people were being shot in Wales and Scotland would it be acceptable if English military forces intervened? Take your time to reply.

ORAC

23rd Apr 2014, 16:51

If English people were being shot in Wales and Scotland would it be acceptable if English military forces intervened? Take your time to reply. No, it would be the responsibility of the police to respond. Not sure if use of armed troops would even be covered under Military Aid to the Civil Power (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Aid_to_the_Civil_Authorities), it would probably need an Orders in Council (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_in_Council) under the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Contingencies_Act) to be lawful, pending the passing of legislation by Parliament.

And even that is moot - and within the same country.....

peter we

23rd Apr 2014, 17:45

If English people were being shot in Wales and Scotland would it be acceptable if English military forces intervened? Take your time to reply.

A more relevant comparison would be Ireland. If half of Ireland was taken over by British Militia, supported by the SAS, declaring independence from Ireland.
Britain would be declaring its 'right' to protect English speakers in Ireland to save them from Dublin.

A British Putin would be stating his desire to recover the lost British Empire.

melmothtw

23rd Apr 2014, 19:28

A more relevant comparison would be Ireland. If half of Ireland was taken
over by British Militia, supported by the SAS, declaring independence from
Ireland.
Britain would be declaring its 'right' to protect English speakers
in Ireland to save them from Dublin.

Didn't we kind of do this, and isn't it called Northern Ireland?

rh200

23rd Apr 2014, 21:42

Moving on, its the 21st centuray, we are supposed to be cleaning up our previous mess, not making new ones.

You need to look at the demographics of NI, not cut and dried.

A better comparison may be Turkey, Pakistan invading London to protect the rights of Muslim people if they thought they where under threat.

Lonewolf_50

23rd Apr 2014, 21:51

Moving on, its the 21st centuray, we are supposed to be cleaning up our previous mess, not making new ones. Who is "we" rh? Seen from Moscow, through the eyes of one V Putin, the loss of Ukraine is a mess they need to clean up ... in a particular way.

It is human nature to make new messes.

The Chinese are baiting one and all as they thump their chests and wave their willies all over east Asia. Making new messes, or cleaning up old ones? Well, that depends on where you sit, doesn't it? ;)

Rakshasa

23rd Apr 2014, 23:43

Not exactly. The Irish Free State was formed in 1922 as the self governing dominion of Eire (apart from the six counties of Ulster which exercised their opt out clause to remain part of the UK). It then suffered a major civil war as the left wing factions of the IRA clashed with the center right wing factions. The left wing factions had played a large part in the Easter Uprising while the right had backed the settlement terms on condition of the implementation of the Home Rule Bill following the end of WWI. The left wing faction lost the civil war and the remnants of it who refused to give up the struggle formed the IRA we all know and love today.

Eire then voted to leave the Commonwealth in 1948 and changed its name to the Republic of Ireland.

I'll leave it to others to draw their own parallels with Ukraine.

melmothtw

24th Apr 2014, 10:55

Granted Rakshasa that no two events can be carbon copies of each other, but the underlying fact of a larger neighbour annexing a portion of its smaller neighbour's territory to obstensibly 'protect' a portion of that smaller country's population that has ethnic/religious/language ties to it strike me as somewhat similar, no?.

And I agree rh200, I'd have hoped 21st century Europe had moved on from this.

Some great Tweets from Putin today I see:

Vladimir Putin ‏@DarthPutinKGB (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB) 10 mins (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/459281223983316992)
There will be consequences for #Ukraine (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash)'s army entering a town in Ukraine and interfering in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin ‏@DarthPutinKGB (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB) 1 hr (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/459266084827590657)
#Ukraine (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash)'s operation to restore Ukraine's guvt buildings to Ukraine's control is a blatant interference in their own internal affairs.

Vladimir Putin ‏@DarthPutinKGB (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB) 20 hrs (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/458988983855636480)
#Ukraine (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash) is destabilizing the situation in #Ukraine (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash) by keeping it's military in #Ukraine (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash).

Lonewolf_50

24th Apr 2014, 12:23

melmothtw

24th Apr 2014, 12:29

I'm not saying it's right Lonewolf, far from it.

rh200

24th Apr 2014, 13:08

I'm the first one to admit that things are not all cut and dried. But frankely the whole I can move in to protect "Russian" speakers excuse is cr@p and every one knows it.

Personally if an ethnic group or some other group are in real danger then I wouldn't give to F@#ks who it was, and would expect Russia/ US etc to move in if needed.

The fact is there has been nothing on anything on a scale remotely requiring outside intervention. In fact from the start the Ukrainians have been going to great lengths to make it that way.

The only people who seem to having the rights taken away from them by being beaten etc by Russian thugs and imports seem to be the Ukrainians.

In any conflict truth is the first casualty, but there's enough independent reporting out their to get a picture of whats going on.

Fox3WheresMyBanana

24th Apr 2014, 14:09

The problem with the Ukrainian actions now is that sooner or later they will be shooting Russian soldiers, because there's a fair few of them dressed up as 'Ukrainian freedom fighters'. Putin cannot afford for this to get publicized. He will invade to prevent that story getting out. Probably within the week.

NutLoose

24th Apr 2014, 18:19

I did find Putin spouting off about his abhorrence of the Ukraine using soldiers against the civilian populace rather ironic given his history in Chechnya.

melmothtw

24th Apr 2014, 18:27

Neither did he seem to have any qualms about Gaddafi using soldiers against his population, or Assad against his.

rh200

24th Apr 2014, 22:27

Hangarshuffle

24th Apr 2014, 22:33

Hasn't been much interest from the UK public thank God. Let us keep out of it entirely.

rh200

24th Apr 2014, 23:30

Hasn't been much interest from the UK public thank God. Let us keep out of it entirely.

Yea thats a damm good idea. You can wait until you have no choice several years down the track. It will be much easier then.

ORAC

25th Apr 2014, 06:19

Power and Weakness (http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/7107) by Robert Kagan More often referred to as the "Americans are from Mars, Europeans are from Venus" essay. The old Kantean vs Hobbesian debate on how International Relations actually work. It would seem Hobbes was right.....

From Mr. Kagan to Mrs. Kagan: Mars and Venus, Part II (http://www.transatlanticacademy.org/node/666)

NutLoose

25th Apr 2014, 11:42

BBC News - Russia fears Crimea water shortage as supply drops (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27155885)

It seems Crimea now has a lack of water.

rh200

25th Apr 2014, 12:47

It seems Crimea now has a lack of water.

Its hard to know whats bull or not, but you can bet its not the Ukrainians slowing up the supply if it is. It would be another reason for Russia to intervene.

ORAC

28th Apr 2014, 06:50

A very interesting and enlightening read concerning what is happening on the ground inside eastern Ukraine - and by whom.....

“Slovyansk is the Center of the Bermuda Triangle” (http://20committee.com/2014/04/26/slovyansk-is-the-center-of-the-bermuda-triangle/)

.........Yet detailed information about what’s really going on in Slovyansk is hard to come by, not least because Russian-backed militants capture and kill people they don’t like. Fortunately, there’s a fascinating new interview in the daily Ukrayinska Pravda with the Belarusian opposition journalist Dzmitry Halko, who writes for Novy Chas, a weekly paper that is one of the very few independent outlets in Lukashenka’s repressive Belarus. This Russian-language interview, entitled “Ten Hours in Slavyansk,” (http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2014/04/23/7023346/) recounts his strange experiences during a recent visit to GRU-occupied territory. It’s filled with important details about what’s really going on in Eastern Ukraine today, so I’m passing on the whole interview, beginning with Halko’s introduction........

...............There you have it: provocations, intimidation, ethnic cleansing among a freak-show of alcoholics, gangsters, Orthodox “warriors,” and GRU operatives, amidst lots of innocent people trapped with nowhere to escape … some great insights there into what de facto Russian rule in Eastern Ukraine actually looks like. As I write, Slovyansk “militants” have stated they will only free their OSCE captives in exchange for prisoners held by Kyiv. It’s going to be a bumpy ride, watch this space.

ShotOne

28th Apr 2014, 09:17

What exactly is the status of the NATO "military observers" we have seen paraded on TV? Ukraine isn't a NATO member. Why are they there? Surely their very presence in the country plays into the hands of Putins agenda that this is all being stirred up by Western powers.

rh200

28th Apr 2014, 11:22

Their not NATO observers, they are military from member countrys part of the European security thingy bobby, which Russia is part of as well.

It makes it look like Russia isn't involved, but are the good guys when they help them get released. Frankly I hope the member states who's personal they are, will be organsing a special forces extraction before that occurs.

ShotOne

28th Apr 2014, 12:15

ah yes, that would really quieten things down.

Ps. Hopefully your suggestion was really a light-hearted reference to the Ukrainian special forces team starring (in their underpants) in the same BBC bulletin yesterday

rh200

28th Apr 2014, 12:45

ah yes, that would really quieten things down.

I think the method we have of bending over and taking up the rear to date to smooth things over to date hasn't worked. Maybe should just ask for lube.

Royalistflyer

28th Apr 2014, 13:06

Personally, I hope Putin just moves in and takes eastern Ukraine up to the north-south line of lakes and rivers. As for us doing anything - its not our business, our interests and safety are not threatened. I don't think the interests or safety of any European country are threatened. What Putin would have done is to divide up a recent, artificial country into its ethnic components.

ShotOne

28th Apr 2014, 13:13

What exactly have we taken up the rear?

It's clear there are parts of Ukraine where the Russians enjoy strong popular support from locals who consider themselves more Russian than Ukrainian and do not welcome the Ukrainian (and especially not NATO) military. And no I'm not saying I'm happy with the situation, far from it, just that it's not a straightforward good guys versus bad guys. Please tell me you were joking about committing NATO special forces (?)!!

t43562

28th Apr 2014, 13:38

Without an election and with a lot of armed people roaming around in support of Russia, how clear exactly is it that X or Y is what the rest of the population think?

Lonewolf_50

28th Apr 2014, 20:05

And what about the sizeable group who aren't "Russian Speakers" who do not want to go back into Russia?

Who is looking out for them?

NutLoose

28th Apr 2014, 20:11

That's the rub of the problem isn't it, as in Crimea they will be pooing themselves at home, isn't most of the Ukraine's generating capacity also in the East?

rh200

28th Apr 2014, 23:48

What exactly have we taken up the rear?

Figure of speech, if you don't know its not worth explaining. The where deniers, and apologists etc before WW2.

Please tell me you were joking about committing NATO special forces (?)!!

Not at all, Russia has gone to great lengths to superficially make it look like they don't have troops on the ground. That would make their troops there terrorists. They are holding European observers hostage.Whilst the Russians could accuse the Ukrainian forces of abuse in any rescue mission, it would be a bit hard to push that line with western forces.

Personally have western troops on the ground on the eastern border with Russia conducting a excersise would just be playing the same game.

Without an election and with a lot of armed people roaming around in support of Russia, how clear exactly is it that X or Y is what the rest of the population think?

Its actually fairly clear from the demographics and polls taken before the crisis.

The Crimea was the only one that was a toss up, the fact that they installed some one there to run things who was in a party that had about 2 to 4 percent of the vote in the last election speaks volumes for how confident the Russians where.

In the other eastern parts of the Ukrainian the Russians don't have the numbers by a reasonable margin. Yes you can find smaller enclaves that would go their way.

ShotOne

29th Apr 2014, 17:49

Whoever is holding them, any rescue attempt would have to kill a load of Russian/Ukrainians, who's to tell. And if it went wrong there would have to be a much larger invasion to extricate. Suddenly we are fighting someone else's civil war. How can you demand NATO military action in Ukraine while insisting Russian military there are terrorists?

There is of course a principled case, rh, to be made for intervention. But if you're going to make that case, you must then explain why you aren't/weren't in favour of doing so everywhere else in the world (volunteers for Chechnya anyone?)people are doing vile things to each other.

ORAC

30th Apr 2014, 06:51

Ukraine: Hate in Progress (http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/apr/28/ukraine-hate-progress/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=April+29+2014&utm_content=April+29+2014+CID_308679d63d5467b168c9df5547ddea f9&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Ukraine%20Hate%20in%20Progress)

.......If war is coming, which is the way it feels, Aleksandr and Volodymyr will be remembered and not just by their families and friends. When the Balkan conflict began in the early 1990s the names of the very first to die were engraved in everyone’s memory and later in the history books. Soon after, the individual names and faces gave way to the torrent of numbers.............

Whenurhappy

30th Apr 2014, 10:07

Archduke Franz Ferdinand and Gavrillo Princip, for example?

NutLoose

2nd May 2014, 21:33

Not looking good today :(

ORAC

3rd May 2014, 06:48

The danger is that, having stoked the fires of nationalism and fear so high, Putin has lost control and will have to respond militarily - even if he hadn't intended too. The trouble with brinkmanship is the risk that someone or something unexpected pushes one over the edge......

Odessa, Yesterday (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/377163/odessa-yesterday-andrew-stuttaford)

We don’t know if the events in Odessa late yesterday will later be seen as the moment when Ukraine finally slipped into some sort of civil war, and nor do we know what use Putin, the true arsonist, will make of the horror in the burning trade union building — his own Reichstag, should he so choose — but Ben Judah is surely right when he tweets:

Normal middle class Russians in state of shock, emotion, fear after Odessa massacre. State Department needs to tread in awareness of this.

http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/jtxPpK0vqXSeTA_0GXqh_A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTM0NztweW9mZj0wO3E9NzU7dz01MDA-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/ucomics.com/po140502.gif

rh200

3rd May 2014, 11:01

The trouble with brinkmanship is the risk that someone or something unexpected pushes one over the edge......

is there anyone left alive in Chechnya or did he kill them all, would be a shame if a few of the other states started using his new found largess on self determination to make a statement.

Ronald Reagan

3rd May 2014, 11:11

Putin: Kiev, Western allies responsible for Ukraine bloodshed - YouTube (http://youtu.be/EL5kRJKow84)

Royalistflyer

3rd May 2014, 12:10

Local political elites and ordinary residents of the eastern regions of Ukraine (the overwhelming majority of whom are ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers) have by necessity always had to rely on informal institutions in their daily life, and never developed any real trust in the state.
The number of protesters and the ease with which they have taken and held on to regional government buildings shows both the weakness of the Ukrainian state and the precedent that the “Crimean model” has created. Political instability in Kiev and conflicting loyalties on the ground reveal that the Ukrainian formal institutions are largely run throughout the country by Donetsk region Russians. However in the east, which is the industrial heartland, the formal institutions long ago broke down. As it is now, the quickest road to peace is if Russia takes over the east - possibly in a short, sharp military incursion. Then lets the west of Ukraine re-order itself with its separate religious and cultural being. Never forget the strength of the religious divide between the east and the west of Ukraine.

A Russian peace is probably the best result the west could hope for now, otherwise there could be a years long civil war.

ORAC

3rd May 2014, 17:29

......As it is now, the quickest road to peace is if Russia takes over the east - possibly in a short, sharp military incursion. Then lets the west of Ukraine re-order itself with its separate religious and cultural being.... HOW RELATIONS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA SHOULD LOOK LIKE? PUBLIC OPINION POLLS’ RESULTS (http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=236&page=1)

Public opinion poll was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in the period between February, 8-18 2014. 2032 respondents were interviewed in all the districts of Ukraine (including Kyiv) and in Crimea according to the random sample, which was representative for all the population of Ukraine older than 18 years. Statistical error doesn’t exceed 2,2% (without design -effect).

Question included by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation were financed in the framework of the project “Public sociological consortium” by the European union, MATRA programme of the Kingdom of Netherlands, International Renaissance Foundation, and also in the framework of the project “Stimulating dialog on transition processes” by the National Endowment for Democracy (USA).

Data from public opinion poll, conducted by Russian research organization Levada Centre is provided for comparison. Levada Centre conducted representative for Russia public opinion poll on February, 21-25 2014 and interviewed 1603 respondents older than 18 years in 130 settlements in 45 districts of the country. Statistical error doesn’t exceed 3,4%.

Ukrainians don’t want visas and borders with Russia, but at the same time don’t want to be united with Russia in a single state
In Ukraine, as well as in Russia majority of respondents wants both countries to be independent, but friendly - with open borders, without visas and customs houses (in Ukraine – 68%, in Russia – 59%). In Ukraine with numbers have decreased since November, 2013 by 5%, in Russia – increased by 4%.
Integration with Russia into a single state is supported by 12% of respondents in Ukraine, and during recent years this number has decreased from 20% to 9%, but after Maidan – increased by 3%. The main part of supporters of this idea of unification with Russia is in the East (26%) and South (19%), while the smallest part is in the Center (5%) and West (1%) of Ukraine. By regions majority of integration with Russia in one state is in Crimea (41%), Donetsk district (33%), Lugansk district (24%), Odessa district (24%), Zaporizhzhya (17%) and Kharkiv (15%) districts, but even there support to the current status of relations with Russia - as two independent and friendly states – prevails.
Among Russians desire to have Ukraine and Russia as two independent and friendly states (with open borders, without visas and customs houses) prevails as well as among Ukrainians (68% and 63% respectively). Integration into one state is supported by 9% of Ukrainians and 32% of Russians. There is direct dependence between desire to unite with Russia into a single state and age of respondents: among youth up to 30 years old 5% want this unification to be realized, among people of 30-54 years old – 11% support that, and among people older than 55 years – 17%.
It is obvious, that among supporters of joining the Custom Union, there is more people supporting unification with Russia (26,5%), than among those, oriented on joining the EU (1%). However, even among supporters of entering the Custom Union majority wants to preserve the status-quo in relations with Russia (69%). Among people, having negative attitude towards Maidan, only 21% wants to unite with Russia into a single state.
Among supporters of political parties the highest percentage of people, who wants join Ukraine to join Russia, is among communists’ electorate (35,5%), but even in this case majority consider that Ukraine and Russia should be friendly independent states (63%). Among Party of Regions voters 28% support unification with Russia.
In Russia 16% of population support unification with Ukraine into one state.

Never forget the strength of the religious divide between the east and the west of Ukraine. what divide?

Religion in Ukraine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Ukraine)

NutLoose

3rd May 2014, 20:17

Odd. Nothing out of Putin, do you think he put people in to destabilise it hoping for a quick settlement and a land grab with the threat of intervention if Ukraine intervened ? But now the Ukraine has found it's voice and intervened he has been caught out as he knows that if he did invade it would cost both sides and he has more to lose, I've seen loads of chart with Ukraine having 100, 000 troops, Russia 750, 000, but in reality he has 40,000 on the border and the Ukraine 100,000 in the country. I should imagine if he started a war that dragged on and he committed more forces from other regions in Russia, it might have a profound effect there.

Ronald Reagan

3rd May 2014, 21:19

The sights one is seeing in parts of Ukraine are terrible at the moment.
Putin has simply got to help those poor people. They are depending on him to help protect them from Nazi's and terrorists. To think before those morons rose up against Yanokovich things were just fine. He never went to the extreme of using the army to put down the protests in Kiev yet the unelected junta who took over the country via a coup are now all to happy to use the military to put down anyone else who dares to rise up even though they ousted the previous legitimate leader and took power by force themselves. They are total hypocrites. Hearing the rubbish coming from the mouths of the fools like Hague and Obama is just unreal. I wonder if any western governments have any credibility left at all.

ORAC

3rd May 2014, 21:34

Ronald, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?

SARF

3rd May 2014, 22:03

Putin is waiting.... Timing s everything on the battlefield .. And that's now what it's becoming.. The commies have no reason to rush.. The west are to scared to flex what muscle they have left.. The uk should stand aside.. This is the first time for 800 years when we should sell our services rather than commit them.. Same applies when it kicks off n the far east.. For the first time since the atlas was drawn we can sit back watch and sell arms... Lovely....

rh200

3rd May 2014, 22:10

Putin: Kiev, Western allies responsible for Ukraine bloodshed - YouTube (http://youtu.be/EL5kRJKow84)

Whats your point? Of course he's going to say that, he is the one causing the trouble.

(the overwhelming majority of whom are ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers

Not true, demographics have proven that, Russian speaking bit though is.

but in reality he has 40,000 on the border and the Ukraine 100,000 in the country. I should imagine if he started a war that dragged on and he committed more forces from other regions in Russia, it might have a profound effect there.

It really depends on how much nationalisim you can drum up, and if you can put up a fight. The Russians have a history of rape, genocide and what ever other means at their disposal whilst controlling the media. Ones desire to protect ones family can be a good motivator.

The sights one is seeing in parts of Ukraine are terrible at the moment.

Yes they are Ronald, you see some poor Ukrainians come out in peaceful protest and they are jumped on by thugs with iron bars and baseball bats waving Russian flags.

Putin has simply got to help those poor people. They are depending on him to help protect them from Nazi's and terrorists.

The Nazi's and terrorists are the imported and local thugs acting as cannon fodder, whilts be controlled by what should be proffesionel Russian soldiers who are out of uniform.

The Odessa incident is a result of Some Ukrainian footy fans having a peaceful march, and then being set upon by a group of Russian thugs. I'm mean attack a group of footy fans, like you don't think they where going to respond? Though I think thats what the Russian ring leaders wanted, the plan worked nicely.

Ronald Reagan

3rd May 2014, 22:19

I disagree with you 100% totally ORAC. I am sorry but this Ukraine thing and the western interference there which is really what ousted Yanokovich has really angered me as much as our intervention in Libya. I should really put the blame at the door of Washington though, our leaders in all the western world are simply puppets and take their orders from Washington. Just like when they demanded that European nations stop the Bolivian President's plane from flying through European airspace in case Snowden was on board. I am just so sick and fed up of western arrogance, our leaders strutting around the place, lecturing other nations on what they will and will not do. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! Putin needs to step up and do what needs to be done. All I can say is thank god for nations like Russia, China, India, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba, Iran, Syria and even place likes the DPRK. We need some kind of balance in this world like back during the cold war, something to bring Washington under control and thus our own puppet governments. The only good thing is more and more of our people can see through their lies now hence no military action against Syria and the rise of parties like UKIP. This naked western aggression must end now.

Ronald Reagan

3rd May 2014, 22:22

Your very wrong rh200. Russia is the good guy in this and the western governments are in the wrong. Much like with most things recently on the international stage.
Putin has simply got to help those poor people.

West Coast

3rd May 2014, 23:33

When in doubt, roll the US President out.

So RR, at what point will it be clear to you that Putin is the aggressor? When western Ukraine is under the jack boot of a Russian tank commander?

rh200

3rd May 2014, 23:57

When in doubt, roll the US President out.

In this case rolling him out actually gives hitler, oh I mean Putin the green light.

Your very wrong rh200. Russia is the good guy in this and the western governments are in the wrong.

Which bit? The independent reporters are having a hard time, but are still managing to get the story out.

So RR, at what point will it be clear to you that Putin is the aggressor?

Most likely never, RR is most likely a troll, or a pr guy in Russia, or some naive Russian teenager.

West Coast

4th May 2014, 00:11

Or an employee of RT news

rh200

4th May 2014, 03:50

or a pr guy in Russia

Or an employee of RT news

Opps, my apologies, I was under the impression they where the PR media side of the Kremlin:E

henra

4th May 2014, 08:51

It really depends on how much nationalisim you can drum up, and if you can put up a fight. The Russians have a history of rape, genocide and what ever other means at their disposal whilst controlling the media.

Honest question: What is your personal involvement in this tragedy?
Are you per Chance Exile Ukrainian?
Your deep personal hatred against Russians is most obvious. You are having your personal Jihad here. For whatever reason.

While it is clear that Putin and his aides are definitely no innocents in this whole story, your posts do seem that you are completely blinded by this hatred against everything Russian.
I don't think it is fair to judge a whole Nation by the actions of a president fighting for power internally.
I know that i don't want to be judged personally by the Actions of our Government and so I try to differentiate a bit also for others/other Nations.

Edit: And while it is pretty safe to assume that Putin and his colleagues were involved in igniting this, I'm not totally sure how much control he still has now over what's going on.

t43562

4th May 2014, 10:06

It is possible to like Tschaikovsky (gay!!!), use Russian software and enjoy eating blinis without approving of what their government does. One does not have to feel any hatred at all to see in little in history that encourages trust or faith in such a government.

rh200

4th May 2014, 10:16

Honest question: What is your personal involvement in this tragedy?

Are you per Chance Exile Ukrainian?

Nope, don't even know my history, presume I'm decendent from poms some time in the past.

Your deep personal hatred against Russians is most obvious. You are having your personal Jihad here. For whatever reason.

I have a profound dislike of bullys. Whilst situations are not always cut and dried, we as a people are trying to move on, sort of three step forward, two backwards sort of thing.

This whole dislike of western this and that type of sh!t is cr@p. A lot of those countrys are having a hard enough time trying to find their way forward as it is. There is no magic bullet as we try to move forward, but this blatant them and us cr@p being relied on by the Kremlin is not it.

While it is clear that Putin and his aides are definitely no innocents in this whole story, your posts do seem that you are completely blinded by this hatred against everything Russian.
I don't think it is fair to judge a whole Nation by the actions of a president fighting for power internally.

It the Russians mo, they have history of it, where would you like to start.

I know that i don't want to be judged personally by the Actions of our Government and so I try to differentiate a bit also for others/other Nations.

Your correct, individuals shouldn't, but a people can be.

Edit: And while it is pretty safe to assume that Putin and his colleagues were involved in igniting this, I'm not totally sure how much control he still has now over what's going on.

You maybe right, it is most likely starting to get a life of its own. If thats so, then Russia needs to pay and pay dearly for a long time. Though we all know the west doesn't have the b@lls for that sort of sanctions.

Ronald Reagan

4th May 2014, 10:25

rh200, NO Russia does not need to pay. The regime in Kiev needs to pay and be made to pay for a very long time! All of this started due to the actions of those who took power by force. Until that happened no one rose up in the east, Russia did not need to go in and get involved. I never liked Tony Blair or Gordon Brown but I did not seek to remove them from power by force or through protests, we simply waited for the next election and finally that party was voted out of office. All they had to do with Yanokovich was wait one year, just one tiny little year and then they would have been free to vote him out. Rising up and overthrowing your leadership can have unforeseen consequences which the junta in Kiev are now beginning to understand. They set a precedent, if one group of people can simply rise up and demand whatever they want, then so can any other group of people.

Oh and if you hate bullies rh200 where is your criticism of the regime in Washington over things like Iraq, Libya, Vietnam along with all the political and economic bullying they engage in against so many other nations. The regime in Washington is the true bully in this world, made to feel more secure by its considerable network of allied puppet states.

peter we

4th May 2014, 15:06

Ronald.

You been reading RT.com haven't you?

Here a tip: Its all lies.

NutLoose

4th May 2014, 15:14

Peter,

The only way you'll change his view is to reverse his lobotomy.

But then again, he can have those views and has the right to air them, as this Country allows him too, unlike some he is discussing.

Ronald Reagan

4th May 2014, 17:52

RT has an agenda but its far more reliable than any western media. The western media fails to ask the tough questions that should be asked of our leaders and to hold them to account. with western governments its just lies, lies and more lies. Do you guys not remember Iraq, ie Gulf War 2, you know back in 2003? What a disaster that has been. How about the disaster that is now Libya?
You will forgive me if I feel western governments have no credibility left at all. With them its just one disaster after another.
These western politicians are like little babies throwing their toys from their pram when they cannot have their own way ie in Syria and now Ukraine.

West Coast

4th May 2014, 18:15

So.....then...what is RT's agenda then?

Yah, it sounds like a rhetorical question, but I'd be curious how a Russian or a Russian wannabe answers

con-pilot

4th May 2014, 18:45

It also appears that our ronald reagan has totally forgotten the Russian invasion in 2008 and current occupation of areas of Georgia.

On a different professional pilot website (pay site) there is a Russian that could be our ronald reagan, he is a Russian handling agent based in Moscow. Like our ronald reagan he follows the RT/Putin propaganda to the letter. Only RT tells the truth, BBC, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. all lie.

Ronald reagan of PPruNe is a shill, promoting the lies of Putin.

Best if ignored.

Ronald Reagan

4th May 2014, 18:45

Well I would say its to embarrass as much as possible our western governments, to make them look bad and useless (not really hard), to show the Russian point of view. It makes a refreshing change from western news media. Come on West Coast, I suggest you watch RT every day this week, then to keep watching it. It will show you what is really going on!

Ronald Reagan

4th May 2014, 18:50

con-pilot, Russia went into Georgia to free the Russian people there from danger. It was a true humanitarian mission. I would say that area is better off today than before. The same cannot be said of Iraq and Libya!

con-pilot

4th May 2014, 18:52

Best if ignored.

....................................................

peter we

4th May 2014, 19:14

Is there an ignore poster button?

West Coast

4th May 2014, 19:14

Only RT tells the truth, BBC, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. all lie.

Ok, maybe he's right about NBC.

West Coast

4th May 2014, 19:18

RR,

Comrade, have all Russian/USSR excursions post WWII justified in your mind? Question speaks to scope, trying to define how deep your ideology runs.

Ronald Reagan

4th May 2014, 20:04

West Coast. I would say the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a disaster and a very bad idea. Since the end of the cold war though modern Russia has been very reasonable indeed. Moscow seems to have a far more logical and reasonable approach to things than say the British or American governments. I mean for example overthrowing Gaddafi and allowing maniacs to control various parts of the country, invading Iraq and 11 years later its far worse than it could have ever been had Saddam still been in charge. Yet some moron politicians wanted to engage in military action to remove Assad and by default assist Al Qaeda! I thought they were supposed to be the main enemy yet recent western actions seem to actually help them. How can such actions be tolerated?! We would have been better off leaving Assad, Gaddafi and Saddam in place to keep a lid on Al Qaeda activity in their nations and thus not be a problem for us.
Basically everything Moscow does actually seems logical, I just cannot say the same for our own leaderships, I wish they actually were better and working to create a better world.

melmothtw

4th May 2014, 20:41

Basically everything Moscow does actually seems logical...

Grozny.

http://i1324.photobucket.com/albums/u613/Melmothtw/russia-chechnya-grozny-war-ru102563_zps768e5f12.jpg (http://s1324.photobucket.com/user/Melmothtw/media/russia-chechnya-grozny-war-ru102563_zps768e5f12.jpg.html)

West Coast

4th May 2014, 22:22

Beaten to it.

Well RR, how does Putin/Russia's philosophy in Chechnya square with what's going on in Ukraine?

A little tough to connect the dots, you agree?

Prolly not

NutLoose

4th May 2014, 22:48

He'll probably put that down to inner city regeneration..

Ronald Reagan

5th May 2014, 07:52

West Coast, Russia would not have been forced to act in Ukraine and the people of the east would not have been forced to rise up if the idiots who rose up in Kiev had not done so. They simply only had to wait one year for an election when they could have voted him out.
EVERYTHING that has happened in Ukraine since then is basically their fault. Not the fault of Russia or Putin. If the coup in Kiev was basically run by western governments then they are to blame. Considering that Biden has been there and other high profile US government officials it was likely them who are behind this. They should not be going there at all, troublemaking as usual. The regime in Washington has to stop causing mayhem around the world, its now sadly the worlds number one rogue state.

Terrible photo of Grozny, but at the end of the day the western governments even now push for war with some wanting to attack Syria, others Iran. The western governments still seem to love war more than the Russian government. Why is that? Come on, this really cannot keep going on, Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, they wanted to do Syria, maybe even Iran. Some on here even want to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. It really has to stop. Its like some little children who cannot stop being aggressive! Maybe some of the war obsessed people could get into video gaming or toy soldiers or something like that.

ShotOne

5th May 2014, 10:02

Dreadful pic of Grozny, melmoth/westcoast...so you believe NATO/Western forces should have intervened there??

West Coast

5th May 2014, 14:46

I don't know if they should or not to be honest. On its face, there doesn't seem to be a compelling reason from a national security point of view, that being my trigger to send US troops abroad and you did ask my opinion of it. I would be considering aid to them about now though.

RR
You stepped past answering about Chechnya. Feel free to take the time to answer now.

Lonewolf_50

5th May 2014, 15:51

What does Chechnya have to do with the Ukraine, West?

I do not recall USSR, nor CIS, nor Russia acknowledging or formally agreeing to Chechnya being separated from Russia.

On top of that, the profound Islamist baseline in Chechnya argues for the US and Russia to make common cause on that matter.

My two cents

West Coast

5th May 2014, 16:45

I don't remember tying the two together beyond asking for RR to square the philosophy from a Russian pov as the two appear in stark contrast.

ShotOne

5th May 2014, 17:01

Perhaps rr's lost the logical thread to your argument, wc? I understood from your earlier posts you were in favour of Western intervention in Ukraine. But now you seem to be highlighting (and I agree with you) the terrible cost of intervening in former Soviet states.

NutLoose

5th May 2014, 17:12

It does however throw Putins argument about protecting Russian citizens out of the window and the rights of countries to resolve situations in their own countries without outside interference. What's good for the goose has to be good for the gander.

Lonewolf_50

5th May 2014, 17:16

WC, with warmest regards, seems to me that comparing the Ukraine and Crimea deals with Checnya is an apples to bicycle wheels comparison.

The thing with Georgia is a far closer comparison, politically, as well as a few of the shenanigans the Russians were pulling up in the Baltic States.

West Coast

5th May 2014, 19:27

LW

Regards as well

I don't see the link between the two as tenuous as you do. I see the logic from a Russian perspective as quite consistant. Maintaining/reconstituting the empire. I won't go as far as saying the Muslim insurgency is a red herring but rather it's something we in the west can understand and have latched onto as our collective understanding of what Chechnya is all about. Other 'Stan's in the neighborhood have undergone similar processes and have not been known as Muslim hotbeds currently. Some are even in the US sphere of influence.

Lonewolf_50

5th May 2014, 22:09

I'd see the Chechnya bit as something more like our problem with the secession of the Southern States, 1861. Seen through that lens, the Russian response is not quite as often depicted. Note that a bunch of the Stans were set free when USSR to CIS to Russia transition took place.

Chechnya was not let go.

I won't further derail, as Ukraine is the case at hand.

ORAC

7th May 2014, 16:21

Russia’s War Machine Can’t Function Without Ukrainian-Made Parts (https://medium.com/war-is-boring/dd4fda8cf09f)

Will Kiev’s arms embargo cripple Moscow’s military?

Russia can nuke Ukraine off the map. But those Russian nukes can’t fly without Ukrainian spare parts.

While Russia only obtains 4.4 percent of its total imports from Ukraine, around 30 percent of Ukrainian military exports to Russia “are unique and cannot currently be substituted by Russian production,” according to the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank. Now Russia is about to find out why it’s better to have Ukraine as a friend than as an enemy. Ukroboronprom, the Ukrainian state-owned conglomerate that controls military production, has frozen arms sales to Russia.

This is bad news for Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces. Its SS-18 ICBMs are designed, manufactured and maintained by Ukraine’s state-owned Yuzhmash enterprise in Dnepropetrovsk. The SS-19 and SS-25 ICBMs are designed and produced in Russia, but their guidance systems come from the Khartron company in Kharkov. These three types account for more than 80 percent of the missiles in Russia’s rocket forces. “In addition, some 20 per cent of the natural uranium currently consumed by Russia’s nuclear industry, both for civilian and military purposes, comes from Zholti Vody in Ukraine,” RUSI reported.

Russian military dependence on Ukraine also applies to conventional arms. “Russia requires Ukrainian-produced gears for 60 percent of the surface combatants planned for its navy,” RUSI pointed out.

Ukraine’s Motor-Sich plant manufactures jet engines for Russian transport aircraft, engines for all Russian combat and transport helicopters and auxiliary power units for many types of aircraft and helicopters. Ukraine also makes auxiliary equipment, such as hydraulics and drogue parachutes, for advanced Russian fighters such as the Su-27, Su-30, Su-35 and Su-35. Ditto for the missiles carried by those fighters. Ukrainian companies manufacture the R-27 air-to-air missile as well as seekers for the R-73.

When Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and comprised a large part of Soviet heavy industry, it made sense for key defense components to be manufactured there. But Ukraine declared independence in 1991. Why is Russia still dependent upon another country for its most sensitive military equipment? “This is due to the fact that lots of the Strategic Rocket Forces missiles and their components were produced during the Soviet time by Ukrainian-based plants,” Igor Sutyagin, the RUSI researcher who co-authored the Ukraine report, told War is Boring. “It was impossible to build other plants which would produce the same products.”

Not that Russia hasn’t made some effort to foster domestic production. For example, Moscow has tried to reduce dependence on Motor-Sich for helicopter engines. Yet it still cannot manufacture enough engines domestically to either meet its own rearmament program or meet export orders for helicopters, according to RUSI.

What about existing stockpiles of spare parts? “It is important not to overestimate the amount of spare parts [in reserve], and not to underestimate the actual need Russia has in such parts,” Sutyagin told War is Boring. “They are far too numerous to buy and keep in storage under normal conditions.” And even if the spare parts were there, Russia still needs Ukrainian specialists to service its nuclear missiles.

Yet Russian president Vladimir Putin had the nerve to claim last week that a Ukrainian arms embargo will hurt Ukraine more than Russia. “For the Ukrainian defense industry, the severing of ties with Russian partners is likely to lead to disaster,” Putin told Russian lawmakers. “Why? They don’t have any other markets. They just don’t exist. The only consumer is the Russian armed forces.”

Actually, Ukraine has been quite successful in exporting arms. Nonetheless, Putin said Russia is already working to create domestic substitutes to compensate for the Ukrainian arms embargo or Western embargoes. Germany has frozen arms sales, and Britain may do the same. Putin estimated the replacing arms imports with domestic supplies would take 1.5 to 2.5 years. This seems an optimistic estimate for building the infrastructure needed to produce highly specialized items such as ICBM spare parts. It is significant that Putin promised that Ukrainian arms specialists would receive “worthy salary and accommodations” if they moved to Russia.

What about the ultimate option—invade Ukraine and seize the defense factories? This assumes that Kiev won’t destroy them … and that skilled workers and technical experts will be available to run the plants and maintain Russian missiles.

To be fair, the U.S. military uses parts made in China, despite the rivalry between the two powers. How long could the Pentagon function without electronics from Japan or Taiwan? On the other hand, neither the U.S. nor China has annexed each other’s territory, as Russia did in Crimea.

Will lack of spare parts deter Putin from supporting secessionists in eastern Ukraine, or invading the entire country? No one can be sure. Russia is far, far stronger than Ukraine. But its weaker neighbor may yet prove that spare parts are the Achilles heel in Moscow’s arsenal.

NutLoose

7th May 2014, 16:28

That's an interesting read, thanks for posting it.

I though Putin on the news tonight looked like a man who's bluff had been called.

ORAC

9th May 2014, 08:31

Ukraine: siege mentality pushes south-eastern region to precipice of civil war (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/ukraine-south-east-precipice-civil-war)

............The rhetoric on both sides has become disturbingly uncompromising, with the dehumanisation and humiliation of the enemy that usually precedes civil wars. Both Russian and Ukrainian media report outrageous rumours about the other side as fact. Among ordinary people Ukrainians are routinely described as fascists, while Ukrainians insist that there is no civil war, only a Russian-sponsored terrorist movement – ignoring the depth of feeling among large swaths of the population who support the armed opposition...........

On Friday Ukraine will be on high alert as eastern Ukraine celebrates Victory Day, a commemoration of the losses suffered by the Soviet people during the war, which has been turned into something of a national rallying idea by Putin in Russia. In Donetsk region it has added piquancy this year, given the supposed fascist threat from Kiev..............

In the village of Ilyicha, a former collective farm named after Vladimir Leninjust outside Konstantinovka, the local head, Irina Bondar, was organising an early celebratory lunch for local war veterans........ After the singing and the vodka toasts a local nurse, who is the village representative of the opposition, tells the assembled veterans that the region again faces the threat of fascists, and again will win. Everyone stands, and sings rousing victory songs. Some of the elderly are overjoyed at being the centre of attention, others seem overwhelmed.

Nadezhda Makarova was five years old when Russia began fighting Nazi Germany in 1941. Now almost blind, hardly able to walk, and with shaking hands, the 78-year-old sits through the performances with tears rolling down her cheeks. "Will there be another war?" she asks repeatedly, every few minutes. "I am scared. On television it's war, war, war. Everyone is talking about war, and I am scared there will be another one. Let God stop it, please, nothing is worse than war."

With Putin's surprise call to postpone their referendum there was relief in the west that Ukraine might return from the brink. But many in the east feel there is now no way back, and it is possible that the anger stirred up here will be very hard to dampen again.

"We are on the brink of an uprising of poor against rich, of chaos, of a terrifying rebellion," says Chertkov, the regional administration head. "America, Russia, Europe, the politicians in Kiev, everyone has tried to play their games here, and they have played so hard that now we are on the brink of catastrophe."

henra

9th May 2014, 09:52

"America, Russia, Europe, the politicians in Kiev, everyone has tried to play their games here, and they have played so hard that now we are on the brink of catastrophe."

Sadly, that seems to sum up the whole misery perfectly.
Too many having stirred the pot too heavily. And now all those who have stirred seem to have lost the grips on the Situation...

Ronald Reagan

9th May 2014, 12:59

Unarmed anti-govt activists try to stop Ukrainian troops storming Mariupol - YouTube (http://youtu.be/d2tCHypAwNk)

US's Nuland grilled over support for Kiev's Maidan activists - YouTube (http://youtu.be/FIjEEFdnzkw)

rh200

9th May 2014, 13:05

I wonder if Ronald is actually and alias for Putin himself, after all it was Reagan that bought Putins beloved evil empire to its knees and broke its back:E

ORAC

10th May 2014, 18:07

On Filling a Vacuum (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/377700/filling-vacuum-andrew-stuttaford)

I don’t want to spoil anyone’s Saturday, but this bleak, brilliant assessment (http://cepa.org/content/cardiff-notes-no-1-posture-and-posturing) by The Economist’s Edward Lucas (for the Center of European Policy Analysis) of the challenge posed by Russia makes for uncomfortable, essential reading (thus the length of the excerpt, but also please read the whole thing). I might disagree with Lucas on the question of the degree (and effectiveness) of sanctions, but not, on this: Western institutions are buckling under the strain. NATO wants to do its job – to ensure the territorial defense of its most vulnerable members. But the politicians will not let it. They will not commit the troops needed to make deterrence credible…

For the countries which are serious about defense, a mood of bleak realism is setting in. Poland in particular – the defense heavyweight of the region – is coming to terms with the failure of its top diplomatic priority in recent years: the wooing of Germany. To be fair, Polish-German relations are now the warmest in history. On EU issues, Warsaw is at the heart of decision-making. But on the crucial issue of hard security, Germany has shown that it cannot be trusted. Angela Merkel’s heart is in the right place, but German voters loathe the idea of a military confrontation with Russia. That might change if Germany’s vital interests were at stake. But they are not (Mr. Putin might be nasty, but he is not stupid). A secure, stable, prosperous united Ukraine matters far more in Warsaw than it does in Berlin. The Baltic States may be only a secondary concern for Poland – but they are a tertiary one, if that, for Germany.

Poland is also pushing hard for stronger Visegrád [a grouping made up of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia] cooperation. But [Poland’s] allies do not inspire confidence. They spend nothing serious on defense. They do not see the threat. And they have other interests. Hungary, ominously, is taking its own path by showing understanding for Russia and impatience with the ever-critical West. Slovakia’s government does the minimum needed to show willingness on issues such as “reverse flow” – exporting gas to Ukraine backwards along the existing export pipelines. But Russian influence runs deep there, as it does in the Czech Republic, which yet again is under a government of questionable integrity and ability.

The immediate danger is that Poland loses enthusiasm for collective defense. It has been disappointed by America, Germany and its Central European allies; by two out of its three Baltic neighbors (Estonia is a shining exception); and by Sweden, which remains criminally irresponsible about its role in regional security….

Russia’s clear military aim in the region is to make it impossible for NATO to reinforce the Baltic States in a crisis. That can be countered first by making sure that the Baltic States are reinforced now – not by token companies of temporarily deployed American soldiers but by all the kinds of land, sea and air forces needed to slow down a Russian invasion. Second, NATO needs to make sure that Russia’s area-denial weapons are countered…

But the big danger is not a full-scale military assault on the Baltic States or Poland, but that Russia creates conditions which render that unnecessary. The lesson of Ukraine is that Russia wages a new kind of warfare, where the target is not the enemy’s military muscle but his will power. An excellent new paper (http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZPC/Publikacijas/PP%2002-2014.ashx) by Latvian defense analyst Janis Berzins highlights the way in which Russia tilts the odds in its favor through propaganda, intimidation, economic pressure, bribery, subversion and diplomacy until the adversary feels so confused and hopeless that they are unable to resist.

It is on this front that the greatest efforts are needed. Europe’s multilateral, rule-based and Atlanticist future will not be won or lost in Brussels or Washington. It will perish in depressed small towns, depopulated villages and grim housing projects in big cities in the Baltic States. They will be among those who fall victim to the frenzied scaremongering of Russian information-warfare. It will founder because demoralized officials have lost faith in their countries’ eventual convergence with European standards of prosperity and public administration. It will be sacrificed in sleazy deal-making in industries such as energy and transit by tycoon-politicians who cherish their business ties with Russia more than their country’s national interests.

Avoiding that is well beyond NATO’s remit but it can help partly by showing a robust physical presence to counter any idea that defeat is inevitable and also by reviving strategic communications and information-warfare to shore up morale (and even perhaps to launch some counter-attacks). The EU can do a lot more to bolster public services, infrastructure and living standards in the places most vulnerable to Russian mischief-making. Just imagine how useful it would have been had we spent a few billion dollars doing that in eastern Ukraine in recent years. But national morale is primarily the responsibility of national governments. As we have seen in Ukraine they can also easily fall, or be pushed, into a death-spiral of incompetence and unpopularity…

Ronald Reagan

10th May 2014, 19:45

Typical western propaganda that means nothing in reality.
If Russia does become a threat then it will only do so as its been pushed into a corner by the west with its continued highly dangerous NATO expansionism and continued foreign interventions. They are the innocent party in this working to safeguard their own nation and people from the evil actions of western governments.
Western leaders do not like being told no, they were told no over Syria and as usual they acted like little babies throwing their teddies into the corner. From that point on I guess they wanted to punish Russia by any means possible. Long may Russia continue saying no to the plans of the western elite.

Fox3WheresMyBanana

10th May 2014, 22:25

ORAC - the senior fellow of CEPA is a Polish emigre, and this piece is basically blaming everyone else. To call Sweden criminally irresponsible is laughable. They are a neutral country and have been for a very long time. NATO is a defensive alliance, and to suggest otherwise rather makes Ronald Reagan's point. Ukraine is not a member of NATO; end of. If Poland has a beef about Ukraine, it should be making its point at the UN.

"But the politicians will not let it." A very unfortunate choice of words. He seems to be suggesting that either the NATO military structure wishes to deploy to Poland, or that the military should be making the decisions,or both.

NutLoose

10th May 2014, 22:53

I would question whether more than a token NATO support is needed in any country, for Russia to invade or take down any of that token force would then bring that / those countries into the fight, a bit like a military version of Saddams human shield.

West Coast

10th May 2014, 23:14

Unfortunately we'll only know the answer to the question after the fact.

Fox3WheresMyBanana

10th May 2014, 23:28

Yes, but the NATO treaty only applies to an attack on a member. An attack by Russia on a NATO country's forces in Ukraine would not trigger the NATO Treaty obligations. Russia has zero intention of actually attacking a NATO country. I think the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions.

West Coast

11th May 2014, 00:49

Who says article 5 will be honored anymore than the security agreements that came along with Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal?

You don't know it will anymore than I don't know it won't, but one set of signatures has already been tossed since Vlad's latest road trip started.

Fox3WheresMyBanana

11th May 2014, 01:04

You're right, of course. I don't know anything, but there again, this is a rumour network.

The problem is that the first set of signatures wasn't worth anything

The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated as a political agreement. It refers to assurances, not defined, but less than a military guarantee of intervention. According to Stephen MacFarlane, a professor of international relations "It gives signatories justification if they take action, but it does not force anyone to act in Ukraine." In the U.S. neither the George H. W. Bush administration nor the Clinton administration was prepared to give a military commitment to Ukraine, nor did they believe the U.S. Senate would ratify an international treaty, so the memorandum was agreed as a political agreement.

Why did the Ukrainians sign up then? Probably because they knew they couldn't afford to keep the nukes, and they knew they weren't going to get anything better.

My bet is that an attack on NATO would be honoured, and that's precisely why Russia won't do it. Putin obviously thought that the breach of the Budapest Memorandum wouldn't result in any effective military action, and it looks like he was right. I'm interested to see how the sanctions thing develops though.

West Coast

11th May 2014, 02:18

And the next set of signatures is worth how much?

Is it worth it to Germany to upset its economy for some minor bit player country? Is it worth it to the UK which realistically wouldn't be threatened if Albania was returned to the Russian sphere? You think Obama will send soldiers to die in great numbers to save Slovakia?

What if a scenario similar to what's happening in the Ukraine happens in Poland, of course with Russia being the catalyst?

I'm not as confident as you about article 5 being the safeguard to the newer NATO members.

Fox3WheresMyBanana

11th May 2014, 03:49

Given the rapid downsizing of a lot of NATO armed forces and recent actions by the politicians, whilst I don't doubt it myself, I'll admit you have grounds for doubts. If this goes on much longer, then I may well start doubting myself.

ShotOne

11th May 2014, 10:24

"...the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions". While it's comfortable to have Putin as the pantomime villain, Fox3 has hit the nail.

ORAC

11th May 2014, 11:02

.the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions". While it's comfortable to have Putin as the pantomime villain, Fox3 has hit the nail. A very slim possibility which has driven Finland's into the arms of NATO. Way to go Putin......

Finland Builds Multiple Defense Partnerships With NATO, Sweden (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140510/DEFREG01/305100024/Finland-Builds-Multiple-Defense-Partnerships-NATO-Sweden)

HELSINKI — Finland’s surprise decision to move toward a historic defense pact with NATO is expected to bolster the country’s interest in acquiring F-35 aircraft to replace the F/A-18 Hornets in 2025-30. Yet the government here is playing down local speculation that the April 22 memorandum of understanding (MoU) with NATO marks the beginning of a process toward membership within 10 years.

The MoU represents a landmark shift in Finland’s traditional defense policy of non-alignment and self-reliance. The proposed pact is to include a guarantee of NATO military support should Finnish territory be attacked. Under the proposal, Finland would invest in a NATO-centered military organization able to interact with NATO militaries and conduct maintenance on NATO ships and aircraft, and provide facilities for fuel and equipment maintenance for land forces.

The Russian-instigated crisis in Ukraine adds urgency to Finland’s need to strengthen regional defense partnerships, said Finnish Defense Minister Carl Haglund. “The [Ukraine] crisis will motivate many European countries, as well as EU states, to spend more on defense and raise their level of defense cooperation,” he said at a news conference here May 6.

Haglund said the MoU would not compel Finland to join NATO, but would establish a military interoperability agreement to deepen its relationship with the alliance beyond the existing Partnership for Peace cooperation pact. “The peacetime element will focus on training exercises between our armed forces,” Haglund said. “It will mean, in principle, that in times of crisis we are better equipped to receive support from others, including NATO, the European Union and Nordic countries.”.......

The MoD defense-partnership initiative with NATO has divided opinion inside and outside government.

“We still do not know what precisely the pact under discussion will involve,” said Paavo Arhinmäki, leader of the Left Alliance party. “It was not openly discussed at Cabinet level during my time in government, or in the parliamentary Foreign and Security Committee where I was a member. We were left in the dark, and I was very surprised to learn of this NATO pact.”

The crisis in Ukraine is a “game-changing situation” that “has made a Finland-NATO pact more urgent,” said Pirkko Ruohonen-Lerner, chairman of the Finns Party’s Parliamentary Group. “Our armed forces already use a large amount of NATO-compatible equipment. A NATO pact will provide Finland with a life insurance policy if it finds itself in a tight spot.”

rh200

11th May 2014, 12:19

.the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions"

To be honest, thats crap. NATO is no threat to anybody but itself. Its a defence pact. Anyone with any serious knowledge is aware of its limitations. Putin and the rest of his followers do as well. What NATO is though, is a conveinent boogy man.

An excuse to do and carry out particular actions under the auspices of not being threatened by the big and powerful NATO. The fact is, its been in decline for ages, and every one knows that. The threat to Russia and primitive society's like theirs are progress. When people in repressed 2nd world country's see ajoining county's move forward it makes it harder for the establishment to control.

melmothtw

12th May 2014, 07:38

I just hope that those holding their secession referendum don't ever change their minds. Under a new law introduced by Putin it is a criminal offence to call for secession from Russia, punishable with up to 5 years imprisonment.

Putin signs law criminalizing calls to separatism | POLITICS | The Moscow News (http://themoscownews.com/politics/20131230/192136238/Putin-signs-law-criminalizing-calls-to-separatism.html)

rh200

12th May 2014, 10:08

Putin signs law criminalizing calls to separatism | POLITICS | The Moscow News (http://themoscownews.com/politics/20131230/192136238/Putin-signs-law-criminalizing-calls-to-separatism.html)

Yes I like how its a rule for those outside of Russia, not those within. It doesn't matter anyway, the whole Crimea and eastern Ukraine isn't legit anyway. Hell in one of the latest they are reporting 96% for, isn't that farsical.

It goes to show how much it matters, you would think you would at least try and make it look legit.

henra

12th May 2014, 19:34

To be honest, thats crap. NATO is no threat to anybody but itself.

Hmm, while it may be a bit simplistic, it is not crap.
Putin thinks in spheres of influence or 'Blocks' (like the US and to some extent the NATO does). And in that pattern of thinking, Ukraine joining NATO is something he 'fears'. Not because Ukraine will invade Russia, but because it would have to be considered lost for Russia's sphere of Influence.

That falls on fertile grounds with the Russian population due in part to perceived humiliations by the West post 1990.
Putin uses these inherent sentiments in the Population to foster his popularity. Which seems to work brilliantly. Even Russians who were never really pro- Putin now are.

At the Moment there is little that can be done effectively to alleviate this. Mid-/Longterm effects of the sanctions may change that, but short term there is probably not much to do.
Military threats regarding Ukraine won't help. In contrary, it will even more weld the population together behind Putin.
That said Military re-assurance of the Baltic states should be given. That has to be a red line. A serious one.
And I think it is. NATO would lose all credibility should it not enforce this one fully. And Putin will know it.
Military threat should only be used if one is willing to go for it.
Fully.
Credibility is an invaluable and difficult to repair asset.

ORAC

13th May 2014, 16:59

NATO Official Vows Support In Moldova Visit (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140512/DEFREG01/305120017/NATO-Official-Vows-Support-Moldova-Visit)

CHISINAU, MOLDOVA — NATO’s deputy chief vowed Monday to strengthen the alliance’s partnership with Moldova during a visit in the former Soviet country that could inflame tensions with Moscow.

NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow wrote on Twitter the alliance is “committed to enhance partnership (with) Moldova in full respect of its neutrality, supporting its independence, integrity and sovereignty.” But in a remark aimed at appeasing Moscow after Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti and other top officials, he added that the partnership is “not exclusive or competitive” and one can remain a “strong friend of Russia” and still be a member.

The visit comes after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin enraged Chisinau over the weekend by delivering boxes of petitions asking Russia to recognize Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestr region to Moscow. Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March has prompted fears it could claim other disputed ex-Soviet regions with majority Russian-speaking populations. Moldova’s government slammed Rogozin’s “unproductive” acts and “provocative statements on Moldova,” saying they “do not help to make progress in the Transdniestr conflict.”

In an interview to Radio Free Europe, Vershbow, a longtime former envoy to Moscow, expressed concern the Ukraine crisis could impact Moldova and warned that NATO views any attempts to stir separatism “very negatively.”

Russia’s Rogozin hit back, saying that Russia could send more troops to Transdniestr, a thin strip of land wedged between the Dniestr River and the border with Ukraine. In an interview with daily Kommersant published on Monday, the hawkish Rogozin condemned Moldova’s increased cooperation with the West and said Russian soldiers could “absolutely” appear in Transdniestr if it is in “physical danger. We see what is going on next to it in (Ukraine’s) Odessa region,” Rogozin said, claiming there are violent “idiots” there who want to “meddle in Transdniestr.”

A clash between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian supporters in Odessa earlier this month led to a blaze that claimed 42 lives, mostly people opposing authorities in Kiev.

Rogozin, who oversees Russia’s military industrial complex and has been blacklisted by the European Union over involvement in the Ukraine crisis, promised Transdniestr on his visit that Moscow will ensure its security. He flaunted his support of the separatists, overseeing a Victory Day parade on May 9 and posting pictures of himself fishing on the Dniestr River.

Trim Stab

13th May 2014, 17:11

"...the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions". While it's comfortable to have Putin as the pantomime villain, Fox3 has hit the nail.

Putin does not want to annexe Eastern Ukraine for exactly that reason. If he annexes Eastern Ukraine, the remainder of Ukraine will have a very substantial majority keen to join NATO and EU. He will refuse to incorporate Eastern Ukraine so that he has influence in the future orientation of Ukraine as a whole.

If the West is clever, it will go along with Putin (with a bit of bluster and protestation) and keep what is left of Ukraine as buffer zone.

ORAC

13th May 2014, 17:22

Ref the above, the view of the Streetwise Professor:

Kabuki a la Sovok (http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=8429)

The Kabuki dance in Donetsk goes on. The “separatists” announce they are holding a referendum on independence. Putin comes out and says, during a press conference with the head of the OSCE, that he wants them to delay it. The west breathes a sigh of relief. The markets rally.

But this call is not echoed by other Russian officials or on Russian media, and Putin does not repeat it. Separatists feign shock! shock! that Putin has betrayed them.

The referendum goes ahead and-brace yourself-the independence motion is adopted near unanimously with everybody voting. Sometimes more than once! To show how much they desire this, or something.

Within hours of the vote, the separatists ask for Russia to “absorb” the regions of Ukraine that voted for independence. The Russians don’t come out and immediately say “I do”, but did make cooing noises (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-dialogue-idUSBREA4B0KG20140512): “The preliminary results of the ballot counts convincingly show a real desire on the part of citizens of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions for the right to independently make decisions about issues that are vitally important to them,” it said.

It stopped short of advocating independence for the regions or their absorption into Russia (http://www.reuters.com/places/russia?lc=int_mb_1001), saying: “We believe that the results of the referendum should be brought to life within the framework of dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk.” But of course the play is not over. But this being Kabuki, the future acts are very predictable. There will be some incident in the Donbass that will mean that Russian lives are at risk, and that fraternal obligations require the Russian Federation to take the newly independent republics under its wing. Or the Russians will do this after the Kiev government refuses to negotiate with the new “people’s republics” (as Russia is sure that it will not, as it cannot): the Russians will rage at how the American dupe fascists are refusing to negotiate with the reasonable people of Donetsk and Lugansk, and that the Russian government is left with no choice but to protect these poor oppressed people from the criminal junta in Kiev and their American overlords.

And the last act-as always-will involve Merkel and Obama and Kerry harumphing and vituperating. And then doing nothing, because nothing is the thing they want to do more than anything. And Vlad will nod and move on to his next target. Transnistria. Or the rest of “Novarossiya”. Or both. The end.

Fox3WheresMyBanana

15th May 2014, 12:21

As I suggested earlier, gas economics is a major issue.
GAZPROM is demanding around $27 billion from Ukraine in bills, revoked agreements and prepayments. Last month the bill was apparently only $2 billion. The new bill would absorb all the $17 billion promised by the IMF and then some.

Could get very messy!

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/11/world/europe/russia-ratchets-up-ukraines-gas-bills-in-shift-to-an-economic-battlefield.html?rref=business/energy-environment&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Energy%20%26%20Environment&pgtype=article

rh200

15th May 2014, 13:20

Give them a bill for Crimea and the rest, and deal with it in the international courts. Call for damages of a few hundred billion and get the proceeds confiscated from international sources.

ORAC

16th May 2014, 08:50

Workers Seize City in Eastern Ukraine From Separatists (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/world/europe/ukraine-workers-take-to-streets-to-calm-Mariupol.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0)

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — Thousands of steelworkers fanned out on Thursday through the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and banishing the pro-Kremlin militants who until recently had seemed to be consolidating their grip on power, dealing a setback to Russia and possibly reversing the momentum in eastern Ukraine.

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk. They had not, however, become the dominant force there that they were in Mariupol, the region’s second-largest city and the site last week of a bloody confrontation between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants. But polls had indicated that a strong majority of eastern Ukrainians supported unity, though few were prepared to say so publicly in the face of armed pro-Russian militants. When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia withdrew support for the separatists last week, calling for a delay in the referendum and for dialogue on Ukraine’s future, the political winds shifted, providing an opening that the country’s canny oligarchs could exploit.

The workers who took to the streets on Thursday were among the hundreds of thousands in the east who are employed in metals and mining by Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, who only recently went beyond paying lip service to Ukrainian unity and on Wednesday issued a statement rejecting separatism. Critics say Mr. Akhmetov could have prevented much of the bloodshed in the east if he had taken a strong stance sooner. But his lieutenants say he decided to confront the separatists out of a deep belief that independence, or even quasi-autonomy, would be disastrous for eastern Ukraine. Mr. Akhmetov urged his employees, whose jobs were at risk, to take over the city.

The workers, who were wearing only their protective clothing and hard hats, said they were “outside politics” and were just trying to establish order. Faced with waves of steelworkers joined by the police, the pro-Russian protesters melted away, along with signs of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic and its representatives. Backhoes and dump trucks from the steelworkers’ factory dismantled the barricades that separatists had erected............

Though the workers had differing views of the new government in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, on the whole they supported the patrols to restore order, employees and managers said. “Everybody can have their own opinion, but not at work,” Sergei Istratov, a shift boss at the factory, said. “At work, you have to do what the factory demands.” Yuri Ryzhenkov, the chief executive of Metinvest, which is ranked among the top five steel producers globally, said managers had been conveying to workers: “The most important thing you have is the steel mill. If you have the steel mill, you have jobs, salaries and stability for your families.”

Once patrols began, he said, representatives of the Donetsk People’s Republic visited the Ilyich factory, demanding to know what was happening. “They were not very friendly at first,” Mr. Ryzhenkov said. But the patrols were welcomed in town, he said, and militants had little option but to acquiesce, at least in Mariupol. “The Donetsk People’s Republic understands if they attack unarmed local people, they will lose all support here,” he said.

The effort is more than ad hoc. The coal and steel workers will soon have uniforms for the street patrols, Metinvest executives said, with patches identifying them as members of the “Volunteer People’s Patrol.”............

Residents welcomed the steelworker patrols for bringing an end to chaos and insecurity. They said masked men had robbed four grocery stores, a shop selling hunting rifles and a jewelry store, and that they had burned down a bank. The crowds of pro-Russian protesters who had jeered and cursed Ukrainian soldiers last week were nowhere to be seen. On the city’s central square Thursday afternoon, a pro-Russian rally drew a few dozen protesters, who were watched over by a group of steelworkers................

rh200

16th May 2014, 11:24

I see the UN has released a human rights report saying that there going down hill in eastern Ukraine, strongly pointing the finger at the Russian side.

Surprise surprise.

ORAC

21st Jun 2014, 09:15

Streetwise professor, my added links.

When Putin Says It’s Not About Politics, It’s About Politics (http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=8524)

Putin responded to Ukraine’s promise to sign an Association Agreement with the EU by threatening to raise customs duties on imports from Ukraine. (http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/736711) Putin’s justification for this was classic gobbledygook: “We agreed on the start of consultations at the level of experts,” he recalled, voicing the hope that they would be held at the level of department chiefs and would raise to a ministerial level somewhat later.

“I hope these contacts will begin and we’ll be able to show in detail what the subject of our concerns is,” Putin said as he addressed a conference on agriculture.

He repeated once again what kind of a threat the AA between the EU and Ukraine was posing for Russia. “If specific economic problems arise we won’t be able to keep the zero rate for import customs fees,” Putin said. Then he gave away the game:“This doesn’t have anything to do with politics or with the options one or another state selects because each sovereign state has the right to choose its original pathway.” Meaning, in fact, that it is all about politics and constraining the right of a sovereign state to choose its own pathway.

Putin is willing to accept a negative outcome in Ukraine. That is, his main goal is to prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the west. If it is isolated from the west, he can control it, more or less, without having to actually take over the place. Creating a new frozen conflict serves this purpose. This threat is intended to achieve the same objective. However, whereas Yanukovych was vulnerable to economic pressure on issues like duties, I don’t think the current government is. That Rubicon has been crossed. So Putin will inflict pain on Ukraine, but it will be unlikely to keep it from moving west, if only because it now understands that it faces a choice between integrating with the west or utter subjugation to Putin and Russia.

In other news, Russian forces are again building up on the Ukrainian border (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/kiev-nato-allege-new-russian-troop-buildup-just-across-the-ukrainian-border/2014/06/19/5002b196-f7c9-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.html). This is consistent with what I wrote in May (http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=8450). That the drawdown was not a concession by Putin, but was driven by the expiration of the terms of one set of conscripts and the need to muster them out and replace them with the 2014 cohort. That process completed, the units that have been withdrawn are moving back to the border.

Unfortunately, the political “leadership” in the west sees what it wants to see. It desperately wants to believe that Putin is willing to de-escalate.

Hardly. He wants to maintain the pressure, but with respect to regular military units operates subject to the severe constraints of a decrepit manpower system.