pilot saturation

[bonzaii]

Hi guys - just got the results back from an interview for an instructing job in NZ

was advertised on AFAP there were 45 applicants (couple of who didnt have the qualifications required) never the less currently there is around 40 unemployed fresh c-cats who regularly check online for jobs.

which means there must be hundreds of people in my shoes. pilot shortage is a load of

any one else heard similar statistics?

[tmpffisch]

There's a shortage of experienced pilots....

[DH164]

instructing job in NZ

And hes surprised? Fecking LOL!

[Shagpile]

There's a shortage of experienced pilots....

Define 'Experienced'......loads of my friends who are military with thousands of heavy jet/turbine [command] hours cannot get a job in airlines either.

[bonzaii]

i know there is a lack of experienced pilot, (not new guys) im not surprised i thought thought the forums would appreciate some stats

[lk978]

1500 hours in the military isn't "thousands" ;)

[deadcut]

Can you all stop wanting to be pilots? Please.

[MartinCh]

deadcut,

nah, they don't all want to be pilots. They want to wear fancy uniforms, get out of NZ or Aus sometime/occasionally and pull chicks (the guys, not sure of motivations for ladies other than love and passion, ehrm).

With all the funding/loans in NZ and now also in Australia (VET-fee help etc), you're bound to have more people who may have less determination/serious motivation and more luck securing funding more easily, thus not weeding out some of those 'cool ones' who'd go for fotballer job otherwise, had they the talent/skills.

At least you got some foreign cadets/students helping with FI jobs without joining the local job market after training.

[KRUSTY 34]

I remember the sausage factories of the '80's. Every man and is dog wanted to fly. Top Gun didn't help!

Once reality bit for the vast majority, and loses were cut, the dedicated few got on with the job of chasing the dream. And what a job it was. Way too many freshly minted CPL's, and bugger all jobs, especially for those without "experience". Sound familiar!

6 years ago it all went nuts again (for a while), that is until the recruitment drive at the Majors, and the subsequent drain on GA and the Regionals came to its inevitable end. Thousands jumped in again, only to miss the boat.

The point is, for most people the path to a viable aviation career is a marathon in the extreme. Overall the number of individuals truly prepared to make the sacrifices has reduced markedly over the last 2 decades. This has led to shortages of the "right people" from time to time. Fertile ground for the Snake oil salesmen. Once those requirements have been met, or a slowdown in recruitment occurs, bingo! Oversupply of low time pilots.

Generally speaking, if you see evidence of movement, and you don't have the quals, then you've probably already missed out. If you paid out big bucks for an integrated course, you should be prepared for years of grind. If you make it then well done. If you don't, you'll join the long list of those who didn't.

Wish it were different, but it's always been this way. Beware of those telling you it hasn't.

[deadcut]

Hasn't student loan funding been cut in NZ now?
Surely that would reduce the amount of sausages coming from the factories.
(I was a sausage too, not so long ago)

[LongLats]

Yeah it's remarkable how the big airlines modulate job opportunities in the entire industry.

Even military jobs open up when airlines hire. You'd be surprised how many RAAF guys would apply for, and most likely get into Qantas given the chance, hence sparking heavy recruitment in the defence force for the guys who want to take that path.

Obviously the same thing happens for instructing and other GA jobs.

But the SOSIJ factories keep feeding snags into the industry as long as you throw money at them - regardless of the likelihood of their students getting jobs at the end of their training.

Like KRUSTY says, it's always been this way. Just study hard, be a good, hard working person and you'll get a job eventually. Persistence is everything.

[Jack Ranga]

You reckon Qantas are recruiting right now? I know nuthin' about it but I reckon RAAFie pilots would be sitting put right now?

[dubbleyew eight]

not persistence, it is timing that is everything.

two weeks before the end of my CPL course Ansett collapsed.
nil jobs available for years.

the nipper has jagged getting into the environment just when people were recruiting again. he has managed almost full time employment as he has moved up through all the jobs to eventually join the airlines.

a fickle environment.

[440]

I Krusty is spot on.

W8 is right about timing, some of us will be out of synch with the cycle. That is the way it is and will be.

[Homesick-Angel]

You'll never be outta sync with any cycle if your in it for the long haul.

Fly by nighters will always drop away.

Where it hurts is when your ready to move on, you've got the hours and then the bust comes. To stick with it then is the true test of the strength of your addiction... I mean dedication..

[training wheels]

They say, it's roughly 7 to 10 year cycle. So, the last big wave of employment opportunities was around 2006 - 2007. Can we expect the beginning of the next cycle in 2014 - 2015?

[pull-up-terrain]

They say, it's roughly 7 to 10 year cycle. So, the last big wave of employment opportunities was around 2006 - 2007. Can we expect the beginning of the next cycle in 2014 - 2015?

In the scheme of things, there aren't that many aircraft on order for airlines based in Australia. The 787's for qantas and jetstar are for fleet replacement, not expansion. Then you have all the crap going on at qantas which is slowing recruitment down at Jetstar as well, because of all the qf pilots on LWOP.

I can't see things picking up in the short term (next 3 years), especially with the amount of qf pilots on LWOP. Once the 787 arrives at qf (if it ever does) and the pilots on LWOP start returning and the old captains in their 60's at qantas start retiring, then things should hopefully pick up in the qantas group at least.

[VH-FTS]

I posted the following on the Virgin thread, but it's applicable to this thread too:

Guys, waiting around for Virgin to take you off the hold file may mean you end up missing the boat. Read the VIPA and AFAP newsletters, together with company financial reports, and it's evident any recruitment, let alone growth, has come to a grinding halt.

Now throw in the Qantas saga and what it could do to the pilot market. QF international is very likely to become a dead duck. A number of Qantas pilots will then be made redundant - either international or domestic. There's all sorts of claims that more senior international pilots will end up replacing a number of domestic pilots. That will mean an over supply of pilots. The ex-QF pilots will then grab whatever Tiger, Cobham, Jetstar jobs they can in order to keep paying the mortgage. Some might even head for the turbo prop operators. Sure, some pilots will head overseas, but not all of them. Can you see how this will end up similar to the market from 2001 to around 2005?

So unless you're happy to stick around your current job for the medium to long term waiting for Virgin to call, make the most of other opportunities before it is too late.

Something has to give at Qantas. It is unlikely the whole company will shut down, but the most likely option is some, if not all, of QF international ops is closed down (or moved over to Jetstar). That means a lot of pilots without work, which dramatically alters the pilot market in Australia.

QF domestic will stick around, so it's not like Virgin or Tiger will suddenly explode with growth to pick everyone up. Therefore the domestic airline job market remains stagnant, but now with an over supply of experienced pilots. The jet operators stop recruiting from the turboprops, the turboprops stop hiring from twins, the twins stop hiring from entry level GA. Now new CPLers can't get their first job either - the whole pilot market is altered for a good number of years.

It's the doomsday scenario for anyone trying to get their first or second job. For everyone else - grab a seat before the music stops (or hang on tight to your current one!).

[MarkIII]

If your willing to cross the Tasman Air NZ jet is recruiting around 110 new pilots next year and I'm guessing continual recruitment will result with the arrival of new aircraft.

[clear to land]

What those of you already caught in the industry have to remember is that, as far as the QF worst case goes , it is seniority driven redundancy-and Second Officer hrs are COMPLETELY worthless-it's only seat time that counts. Does this penalise some experienced guys-yes it does-but it is what it is. Make of that what you will for every other operators employment selection.