1993-2013-2033

[FANS]

Interested in whether more or less people were doing PPLs 20 years ago & what the GA scene was like vis-a-vis today, and what the view is for private flying in another 20 years.

There will always be a hardcore that want to fly privately, but the regulators/cost/other things to do/flying not so novel now suggests to me that private flying is on a real downward slope in the UK.

[Piper19]

I started in 1997, so not yet 20 years ago, but I can clearly see changes going on. It was much easier to get into larger airfields, and also at reasonable rates, that's the biggest thing I miss. I also think that very light aircraft will be the only way for my kids to learn to fly at normal prices. I very dislike how they are built and look and I can't imagine they have the same attraction as aircraft had when I was younger.
I also have the feeling that nowadays GA aircraft maintenance has the same high standard everywhere, whereas in the past it could fluctuate.
Another feeling I have is that in the past the flying lessons themselves were of higher quality while the exams were looser, whereas nowadays the teaching has gone backwards, while the exams are more stringent. I have done both in the pre-JAR era and in the "modern" era, so I think I can compare them.

[dont overfil]

In 1988 when I started learning to fly in group A aircraft, microlights seemed virtually non existant in the east of Scotland.

The first task for myself and most of my colleagues on passing the PPL was to convert on to one of the four seaters then train for the IMC and night ratings. It seemed to be the sensible and accepted route but was no more affordable then than it is now.

Nowadays microlights have taken over as the standard recreational tool. No opportunity to get an IMC or night rating, less training in navigation and instrument flying. Dumbed down PPL. Stands back for the flak:uhoh:.

Hopefully the future will allow IMC and Night in a wider range of suitably equipped aircraft and with it better trained pilots. Hopefully there will be a U turn on some of the unnecessary regulatory burden placed on GA. Hey! Maybe the government will bring back NVQ VAT relief when training for a professional licence.

D.O.

[bingoboy]

"dont overfil" you do right to put your tin hat on.

I've been private flying for some 40 odd years and have to say I have not noticed a fall off in total recreational flying.

Far from it as the microlight world which I have and do enjoy as well as GA has matured into a vibrant scene of several thousand aircraft owners who do use their machines.

The options for those who wish to learn to fly and now very varied and several folk indulge in many different versions during their time.

What is needed is a tight control on bureaucracy. I have noticed several folk give up citing licence/medical confusion. Despite all efforts it seems the whole CAA/JAR/NPPL/EASA/LAPL (can I speak english etc) moving goalposts thing is a confusing last straw.

[Contacttower]

I only started in 2005 so can't really comment on 1993 but my sense is that the rate of change on the GA scene is relatively slow.

20 years into the future I think a lot of the current trends we see today will have accelerated. Legacy group A aircraft will gradually fade from existence, and the three axis microlight will become even more prevalent than it already is.

However subject to economic improvement I there may be some expansion in the more serious owner and charter operated SET. The recent granting of a SET AOC in France suggests that in the future TBMs/PC12s etc may enter the public charter business for the first time Europe. So perhaps a bit of a polarisation in fact between the 'top' and 'bottom' of the scene in terms of complexity and cost of the aircraft themselves.

The regulatory burden has become almost unbearable now but I am actually hopeful that this might swing back and that there are signs finally that the CAA and EASA might see another way. Hopefully in 20 years time we will have more cheaper and potentially non-certified equipment to enable aircraft to carry traffic avoidance and altitude reporting for whom it is currently too expensive. This would make the issue of airspace and TMZs less contentious. I suspect VHF will still be the primary way of communicating.

GPS approaches will be allowed without ATC cover in the UK and hopefully aircraft without a full CoA will be allowed to fly IFR with certain conditions attached (for example the Vulcan is now allowed to despite having a Permit to Fly) enabling the utility value of light aircraft to increase and more interest in doing an instrument qualifications as a result.

I doubt it will have happened by 2033 but eventually, in the longer term, JET A1 burning diesel engines will replace avgas burners in most new aircraft. The advantages of having a common fuel with jet and turboprop aircraft are obvious as well as the lower cost of the fuel itself.