Intuition in aeronautical decision making

[alf5071h]

From another forum; take the test, food for thought?

“During the training of CRM (Cockpit Resource Management), pilots reported that they experienced negative gut feelings in certain flight situations. They reported that the feeling helped them to recognize the danger.
It gave me the idea to carry out a research in this area at the London City University. We are investigating decision-making in aviation crisis situations and have recently completed several experiments, including video analysis of crew performance during FOT on a flight simulator A 320 using special crisis scenarios.
For the next phase of our research, I wish to recruit aviation pilots to participate in an online experiment, consisting of a simple cognitive task (which takes about ten minutes) and a short personality questionnaire (which takes about five minutes).
The personality questionnaire is a standard test that measures individual differences on a number of traits. The cognitive task is simple and doesn’t require any prior knowledge. Participants simply have to choose one of four rectangles displayed on the computer screen, based on their assessment of a set of simple rules. This task is repeated in a rapid sequence of trials. Participants will see feedback of their performance immediately on completion of the task.
All the data are anonymous – no one is required to give their name - and strictly confidential. No individuals or names of any organizations will be revealed in any descriptions of this work.”

The experiment, together with full instructions on how to go through the task, is available online - City University (http://www.staff.city.ac.uk/psychstudies/cgi-bin/TV.pl?State=Intro)

This is not my experiment.

[safetypee]

Interesting, but I wonder if the test can identify the factors which should be taught in CRM to improve intuition.

[BOAC]

the factors which should be taught in CRM to improve intuition. - that is what I call an oxymoron!

[Spitoon]

Interesting, just did the test - hope I don't screw anything up because I'm not a proper pilot (just a simple controller, and an ex-one, at that).

I'd love to know how I compare with others. I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

But I wonder if the output will be useful? Before I did it I was thinking that 'intuition' was what someone of my vintage might refer to as professional judgement. But the it doesn't seem that the test will do that. Ho hum, still interesting all the same.

[safetypee]

BOAC, ‘oxymoron’; where’s the contradiction?
Whilst we appear to be born with the ability to use intuition, apparently we do not have the knowledge or situational assessment ability on which it operates. Thus knowledge and skills have to be gained and developed in order to fulfill intuition. Throughout life there is an element of teaching/learning; there are specific elements in aviation.
CRM is probably not the best place for this teaching, but that's what the test alluded to.

Thus what venue or mechanism might be better, what knowledge and skills are required, and how and when are they exercised; you must have experience of some of these.

(I was going to add that ‘BOAC’ and ‘experience’ is an oxymoron, I won’t because anyone who has landed with less than 800/800 has some experience, but do experiences involve intuition?) ;-)

[BOAC]

The 'Schipol' THY thread is developing nicely on the topic.

I cannot see how 'intuition' (by definition) can be 'taught'. A well-written paper by a BA (?Manchester?) Captain in the in-house mag a few years back questioned the possible dangers involved in 'teaching' a rigid decision making process (DODAR in BA's case) for those folk who had the 'intuitive' decision making process and how it could actually impede the natural process. Not to say it is all wrong, but he thought it should be a matter of emphasis.

My question really is can you actually 'improve' intuition by 'teaching'? I believe the only enhancements to intuition can be gained by the experience learning process. I also believe likewise also that a statement I have seen that 'airmanship can be taught' is a vast over-simplification. Looking at the Kern 'pillars', to me it is a three-part process, innate ability, skills teaching/learning and the self-driven desire to be 'better'. When 1 and 3 are either absent or seriously lacking, no amount of 'teaching' will succeed.

(Regarding my particular oxymoron, the choice of username was not mine, but one of Danny's self-amusement moments.:) As to whether those 'brick-passing' moments involved intuition.........................)

[A37575]

My question really is can you actually 'improve' intuition by 'teaching'? I believe the only enhancements to intuition can be gained by the experience learning process


Intuition? Or the value of experience? Many years ago I was flying a Lincoln on a long range maritime exercise. It was dawn and the crew were all tired after flying for many hours in tropical heat, no air-conditioning and a very noisy aeroplane. I was resting down the back using my parachute as a pillow against the main spar while leaving the copilot to fly the aircraft. Leave aside the inevitable criticism of my actions in having a nap away from the cockpit - but those things happened in the Fifties.

Earlier I had asked the navigator to wake me when we were within 30 minutes of arrival at base. As usual we were flying at 1500 ft above the sea. This was SOP.

I awoke with a start - my inner clock sensing we were close to the coast. I sensed danger and scrambled passed the navigator's station to the cockpit. The navigator had fallen asleep slumped over his desk. The radar operator and signaller were snoozing. I saw we were in fog at 1500 ft and the copilot was asleep. The Lincoln was on autopilot.

I felt this sense of danger so urgent that I shook the copilot awake by his shoulder and shouted at him to climb immediately at full power. There was no time for me to ask him to get out of the captains seat. Everyone came awake with the marked attitude change and the noise of four Merlins at full power.

We broke clear of the fog around 15 seconds later to find ourselves on top of the layer of fog at 2000 ft over water. Less than ten miles ahead of us dead on track was the tree covered tip of an island hidden by fog. The island just 30 miles from our destination was hidden in fog except for the top 200 ft sticking out on top. We would have flown straight into it had I not sensed extreme danger. I am unable to explain what caused me to wake up. Call it intuition if you like. It happened over sixty years ago and I still remember it clearly.

By airline standards I was not an experienced captain in fact I had about 2000 hours and was only 23 years old. The copilot had around 500 hours.

I am not sure if this story is applicable to the original post on can intuition be taught like CRM? Maybe there is a sixth-sense we sometimes read about? if so, it saved our lives that time. It surely cannot be taught, though.

[safetypee]

Ooh! BOAC we seriously agree – all of your points.
I would like to obtain a copy of the ‘BA Paper’ (or just to know of the author – PM).

The teaching that I envisaged might come from identifying the elements of domain experience and perception of time (skills of situational assessment), which appear at the conjunction of the major decision making theories (Kahneman and Klein).

A simpler view is that aviation decision making is no longer a matter of joining up the dots (SOP philosophy), but involves identifying the aspects in a situation which are dots, then which dots are important, and what is the meaning of the pattern when the dots are joined up.
e.g. THY; airspeed, flight path, system indications, – plane, path, people, - aviate, navigate, manage, etc, etc; but those, as you said, involve airmanship.

How to teach airmanship; … reflecting on a long career I am convinced that I was ‘taught’ airmanship (not CRM) – but I have few ideas as to how. Our flight training and initial operational experiences were similar (identical); landing with less than 800/800 may enhance experience, knowing that you are to low during a night low level intercept (no rad alt) is perhaps intuition.

_ Making Better Decisions (http://www.scribd.com/doc/45422536/-Making-Better-Decisions)
http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/morewedg/personal/papers/IntuitiveJudgment.pdf
http://www.fiddlemath.net/stuff/conditions-for-intuitive-expertise.pdf
http://xstar.ihmc.us/research/projects/EssaysOnHCC/Perspectives%20on%20Sensemaking.pdf

[Cornish Jack]

Intuition, instinct?? ... or something else?
Scene - mid to late 50s, Hastings en-route from Colombo to Changi, usual crap comms i.e.zilch. Hastings Nav (Master Nav J***** M****) calls for a 90 left, held for 10 mins or so then reversion to direct Changi. Capt and remaining crew puzzled. Arrival at Changi to hear that a sister ship westbound had lost an engine and was forced down to the same level as themselves. Track plots were NOT conclusive but could well have coincided at about their unplanned track deviation.
Operated with JM on S&R Sycamores and, later, Whirlwinds and was made aware of some unusual 'talents' he had, including hypnotism - all, no doubt, irrelevant but 'more things,etc., Horatio'
Wouldn't mandate hypnotism as a pre-requisite for aeronautical decision making though!;)

[Sciolistes]

for those folk who had the 'intuitive' decision making process and how it could actually impede the natural process. Not to say it is all wrong, but he thought it should be a matter of emphasis.
By observation, the only reason I have seen, so far, that some pilots have an intuitive decision making process, is because they are always evaluating. They might not even recognize this themselves, but if you ask a snap question like "wheres the traffic" the answer is "there and there", not sudden frown and glance at the ND. Many other pilots (myself included) simply are unable to absorb all that changing information whilst holding a conversation trying to find solutions to the international monetarism crisis.

A structured approach like DODAR, may inhibit their ability, but without it I for one probably would not keep up with their decision making process.

[Piltdown Man]

Just think of all the money that could be saved. No avionics, just a couple of crystal balls (for redundancy of course). :E

PM

[Dan Dare]

I couldn't help feeling that the test rule "green divides by half" was misleading and will skew the results. If I divide 2 by half I get 4. If I divide 2 in half I get 1. I think the test meant the latter, but stated the former.

[paco]

Been teaching that for years on my CRM courses - some audiences are receptive, some not. Even did an article on it in some mag or other - will see if I can dig it out.

Phil

[alf5071h]

paco, “… teaching that …”; teaching what, intuition?
… What, how … do tell !

[framer]

I think Sciolistes is on the money.
It's not so much the "intuition" that can be taught but the "habit" of gathering information constantly. Once the habit has been established it will be there when you need it. Ie when something strange happens you don't have to then begin gathering information, you already have the information about traffic or weather at another port or crew capabilities or aircraft performance etc.
You definitely can teach habits, and the habits provide the pilot with good information that is required in order to make a decision that seems to have been an intuitive decision to others that lacked the same information.
It takes discipline because 99.9% of the time the information will not be needed.
My 2 cents,
Framer

[paco]

I bring it in with decision making. Essentially, decisions are made in the subconscious, and the only way it has to communicate with the conscious is muscular, hence the pucker factor. If the audience is responsive, I go through a few exercises to try at home. A lot of people get distinctly uncomfortable with the idea, so I just leave it by mentioning that if the pucker factor is operating then it's doing it for a reason and it should therefore be listened to.

It's very loosely based on the US Military's remote viewing procedures.

phil

[framer]

Is that where they can kill goats by staring at them?

[paco]

That would be Remote Influencing. Hollywood has a way of trivialising things, though I haven't seen the film yet. One serious book is Reading The Enemy's Mind by Paul Smith.

Phil

[HOCHWALDSPRUDEL]

..concerning INTUITION.

Have a look at my post about Prof. Gigerenzer:

http://www.pprune.org/safety-crm-qa-emergency-response-planning/509356-crm-training-question-about-its-operational-limitations.html