Bhoja Air 213 down near Islamabad

[jwhitley]

Breaking from Reuters. Any news?

[denlopviper]

confirmed, Bhoja Air 213 with 127 onboard has crashed about 30 mins ago.

apparently landed short. no news on survivors.

[jwhitley]

From columnpk.com

"
RAWALPINDI: A plane crashed at the Koral Chowk on Islamabad Express Highway in Rawalpindi on Friday, reported Express News.
According to initial reports, the plane was a Boeing 737 and belonged to Bhoja Air. It was also reportedly carrying 137 passengers from Islamabad to Karachi.
7:17pm
It is currently raining in Rawalpindi and it being suggested that the bad weather could have been the cause of the plane crash.
According to authorities, the plane crashed 10km away from the runway of Islamabad airport, near Chaklala airbase.
Rescue officials from Islamabad and Rawalpindi, as well as the Civil Aviation Authority, have left for the crash site.
"

[Load Toad]

BBC News - Airliner crashes near Islamabad airport (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17788698)

[SV_741_India_Bravo]

116 pax on board, a/c 737-200, was on approach.

OPRN 201400Z 23020KT 3000 TSRA FEW025CB SCT030 BKN100 20/16 Q1011.0/29.85
TAF OPRN 200930Z 2012/2118 23005KT 6000 SCT040 SCT100
TEMPO 2012/2018 23015G25KT 4000 TS FEW030CB SCT035 BKN100
TEMPO 2019/2022 23015G25KT 4000 TS FEW030CB SCT035 BKN100
TEMPO 2100/2103 23010G20KT 4000 FEW030TCU SCT035 BKN100

[Airbubba]

Passenger plane with 127 on board crashes near Chaklala airbase

Updated 23 minutes ago

RAWALPINDI: A Bhoja Airline flight # B4-213 has reportedly crashed near Chaklala airbase, Geo News reported.

According to sources, the a Boeing 737 with 127 passengers on board, which flew from Karachi at 5:00PM was suppose to land in Islamabad at 6:40PM, but crashed just before touchdown.

Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has confirmed the reports of crash.

Rescue teams have rushed to the crash site.

More details are yet awaited.


Passenger plane with 127 on board crashes near Chaklala airbase - geo.tv (http://www.geo.tv/GeoDetail.aspx?ID=45349)

[denlopviper]

crash in populated area. most likely casualties on the ground too. news showing pictures of wrecked houses

[denlopviper]

118 pax, 9 crew

crashed confirmed in residential area. reports suggest crash site around 2NM from threshold and left of centerline RWY30

[SV_741_India_Bravo]

First views are in. Bits and pieces of the aircraft are scattered among houses. Very slim chance of survivors :(

[denlopviper]

pretty much inline with the runway just about 2.5NM from threshold

[inducedrag]

AP-BKD - 1984-built Boeing 737-236 Advanced (C/N 23163) previous regisrtration ZS-OLA.

[TWT]

Geo News Live | Geo Tv Live | Watch Geo News | Live Geo Streaming (http://live.geo.tv/live.aspx)

[denlopviper]

looks like they got caught in a downdraft. wreckage seems to indicate high speed crash. lots of houses damaged and very likely there are casualties on the ground.

[SV_741_India_Bravo]

http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa122/VirtualPIA2/Image_120420_203118.jpg
http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa122/VirtualPIA2/Image_120420_203137.jpg
http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa122/VirtualPIA2/Image_120420_203141.jpg
http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa122/VirtualPIA2/Image_120420_203149.jpgmage_120420_203254.jpg[/IMG]
http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa122/VirtualPIA2/Image_120420_203255.jpg

[fantom]

It's good to see the experts are here already.

[Melax]

The following quote from Wikipedia if true is quite troubling,,,
Aircraft

The accident aircraft was a Boeing 737-200 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737-200), registration AP-BKD.[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhoja_Air_Flight_213#cite_note-AH44e48c2a-0) The aircraft had been purchased from Shaheen Airlines (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaheen_Air), which had retired it as unairworthy.[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhoja_Air_Flight_213#cite_note-The_News-1) The aircraft is reported to have been 32 years old at the time of the accident.

[Tableview]

It was in service with BA/Comair in ZA until mid-2009. A lot can happen in 3 years.

Tragic anyway, hopefully yet another accident in this part of the world will lead to higher standards.

[GarageYears]

BBC report states a "violent thunderstorm" at the time of the crash.

Getinitus? :rolleyes:

[denlopviper]

yeah there was an active CB and lightening activity over the field at the time of the crash, hence the me thinking of wind shear. getting into a downdraft 2.5 from touchdown is very close to being unrecoverable



edit....disregard, airport now open

[hetfield]

Non Precission Approach?

[pudoc]

I haven't heard of an accident where a a/c was brought down by lightning alone (stand to be corrected)...but you never know.

Can't believe such old aircraft are in service. I know if an a/c is maintained well it can last for years (WW2 a/c etc) but I think 32 years for a commercial a/c is pushing it.

Will wait for the report before I jump to conclusions though...

[StainesFS]

Aviation Herald is now reporting that the aircraft was, in fact, AP-BKC. This was also an ex-BA/Comair aircraft dating from 1984 (formerly G-BKYI, ZS-OLB).

[Efe Cem Elci]

Since its Pakistan, shouldn't experience lead us to believe the report will never be released?

[lomapaseo]

I haven't heard of an accident where a a/c was brought down by lightning alone (stand to be corrected)...but you never know.

Can't believe such old aircraft are in service. I know if an a/c is maintained well it can last for years (WW2 a/c etc) but I think 32 years for a commercial a/c is pushing it

Iran Air (sister ship of TWA800).

Obviously extremely rare and even more so today

It aint the years of service, its the flight cycles and the repair cycles.

[hetfield]

Since its Pakistan, shouldn't experience lead us to believe the report will never be released?

Well, maybe the findings are toward India.....

[Kamran Bhatti]

There was heavy rain and storm at the time of accident,127 on board including 6 crew members.Captain was ex Group Captain Pakistan Airforce,

So far there are different reports, Lightning,one eye witness said,and rumors are Plane,s ILS was faulty,Don,t know.

40 houses damaged .

[Old King Coal]

OPRN 201400Z 23020KT 3000 TSRA FEW025CB SCT030 BKN100 20/16 Q1011.0/29.85

Nb. Islamabad (ISB/OPRN) has the following approach to Runway 30 (runway QDM = 296 degrees) :

ILS DME - inbound QDM = 296 degrees / visibility minima for Cat C aircraft = 700m
ILS LOC - inbound QDM = 296 degrees / visibility minima for Cat C aircraft = 750m
VOR DME - inbound QDM = 296 degrees / visibility minima for Cat C aircraft = 1100m
VOR Circling - inbound QDM = 340 degrees / visibility minima for Cat C aircraft = 2400m
NDB Circling - inbound QDM = 320 degrees / visibility minima for Cat C aircraft = 2400m

Had they been following a standard 3 degree approach, in the above reported (METAR) visibility of 3000 metres (approx 1.6Nm), they should have expect to see the runway when at approximately 500 feet above ground level.

If Pakistani news reports are correct, i.e. that they crashed at / into the village of 'Hussain Abad' ( N33° 35' 19.48" / E073° 8' 51.69" ), that puts the crash site approximately 2.1 Nm short of the threshold for R30. It is also approximately 0.3 Nm to left of the R30 extended centreline.

Given that they should have been following a 3 degree glide path (regardless of the approach type), this might suggest that - at the point of impact - they were approximately 600 feet below an ideal (3 degree) glide path and also substantially left of the centreline of R30.

Just my $0.02 worth.

[Abraham Zapruder]

Aviation Herald is now reporting that the aircraft was, in fact, AP-BKC. This was also an ex-BA/Comair aircraft dating from 1984 (formerly G-BKYI, ZS-OLB).

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7179/6886050741_18de1bf05f_b.jpg

[llagonne66]

Delivery date Airline Registration Remark
23/02/1980 British Airways (http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/British%20Airways.htm) G-BGDD
21/04/1995 Transavia Airlines (http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Transavia%20Airlines.htm) PH-TSE
13/09/1995 Comair (http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Comair.htm) ZS-NNG Stored 01/2011
10/02/2012 Bhoja Air (http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Bhoja%20Air.htm) AP-BKD 20/04/12 Crashed Islamabad

[El_Presidente]

Lansa Flight 508 - struck by lightning which ignited the ullage in the wing tanks.

LANSA Flight 508 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LANSA_Flight_508)

[arem]

Panam 707 over Maryland in '60's

Iranian AF 747 near Madrid - I forget the date

[Efe Cem Elci]

arem the Iranian AF 747 was ULF48 and the date was May 9, 1976

CSRTG Aircraft Accident Database (http://www.rgwcherry-adb.co.uk/adb/TEXTview.asp?REF=19760509A)

[The Ancient Geek]

BBC is reporting that wreckage is scattered over several kilometers.
If this is true (early reports are always suspect) it would indicate an inflight breakup of some kind.

OTOH, in bad weather lightweight debris can be scattered by high winds.
The scattered debris could also be domestic rather than aircraft related if the aircraft ploughed through several houses before coming to a stop.

[chubbychopper]

Given that they should have been following a 3 degree glide path (regardless of the approach type), this might suggest that - at the point of impact - they were approximately 600 feet below an ideal (3 degree) glide path

Err....usually impact before the threshold tends to indicate that. Are you a rocket scientist by any chance?

[umairch]

Lightening strike & port wing on fire. An eyewitness snapped off a few pictures before the crash. The atittude suddenly shifted after the strike.
This has hit somewhat close to home. Both the Captain & Co-pilot were ex PAF & friends of both my uncle(ex PAF) (married to my aunt) & best friend's father (in service AVM). I even met the capt as a kid once when visiting my aunt. Sad day. The airline was idle from 93-2012 not only due to finances but also it's maintenance practices. They used to send landing gear tyres tp car tyre repair shops to be serviced. What do you expect. A PIA flight was diverted to Lahore just before. Unfortunately if Captain Afridi had diverted the airline Bhoja would have canned him for making them suffer an economic loss. The bloody bas*** are selling the passenger manifest for Rs 20 to the families even now!

[roaldp]

The inauguration of Bhoja Air on March 3 2012 was only possible following the exertion of immense political pressure on the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) resulting in Friday's disaster, according to TheNews.com/pk. The CAA sources have said that the old plane was allowed to commence flights from April 20 although procedures and professional checks were not fully adhered to before doling out a licence to the Bhoja Air as a political favour.

This article also mentions several other disquieting details about the company:
Political pressure allowed Bhoja Air to relaunch - thenews.com.pk (http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-14061-Political-pressure-allowed-Bhoja-Air-to-relaunch)

[oceancrosser]

Seems there should be a Category 3 or lower for some countries :ugh:

[de facto]

Just listening to BBC.
Airline reportedly said pilot was highly experienced,weather was to blame...
But who lead this aircaft into that weather??:ugh:

[fotoguzzi]

[not a pilot] Perhaps an investigation will not be necessary:

Bhoja Air crash: ‘Acceleration at low height caused mid-air explosion’ – The Express Tribune (http://tribune.com.pk/story/367943/bhoja-air-crash-acceleration-at-low-height-caused-mid-air-explosion/)

@umairch: Are you able to provide a link to the pictures?

[Tableview]

Just heard an interview on a ZA news broadcast with someone from Comair who said they they sold 2 a/c last year to Bhoja Air. They say both were in service with them until 2010 but can't confirm if the one in this accident is one of those.

[Ye Olde Pilot]

According to the initial investigation report, the last words the co-pilot said to air traffic control were “I have lost control of the plane”, after which they lost contact with the plane at around three minutes before crash.
Bhoja Air crash: ‘Acceleration at low height caused mid-air explosion’ – The Express Tribune (http://tribune.com.pk/story/367943/bhoja-air-crash-acceleration-at-low-height-caused-mid-air-explosion/)

[Old King Coal]

Chubbychopper: the point I was endeavouring to make is that, had they been following the ILS,… well, they were plainly were not following it and / or that something was wrong with it and / or that something went wrong with it?!

So, if they were not following the ILS, then what were they following?

There has been a suggestion that the Glideslope Tx (though there's no NOTAM to that effect) was faulty, and / or that the Glideslope Rx (within the aircraft) was faulty.

Now if the latter was true, and was known to the crew in advance, then they might have been flying either the LOC procedure or the VOR procedure - both of which, of course, are Non-Precision approaches, albeit that the visibility (METAR) was reported as being as well within the limit required for either approach type.

Now I take it that you are you familiar with how a non-precision approach is typically flown in a B737 (especially one of that vintage, i.e. not utilising LNAV / VNAV)? If so, you will understand the procedure required from the piloting & 'automatics' point of view, and also understand the inherent errors and risks associated with it.

Given that the reported visibility was 3000 m (~1.6Nm), they should have expected to see the runway when approximately 500 ft above the ground - which is the point I was making in my previous post (above).

Imho, that scenario starts my alarm bells ringing! I.e. one's on a non-precision approach, at night, in poor weather (Cb's = Heavy Rain / Lightening? / Windshear? / Microburst?), with likely visual contact (with the runway environment) at a height of only 500 ft AGL. Uhm?!

Manoeuvring are large'ish jet aircraft, when close to the ground, in such conditions, is not without risk and requires a fair amount of ability.

Along with all the other possible f'ups that could occur, in respect of how the aircraft is being flown during such an approach, you will, I'm sure, also be aware of the effect that 'visual illusions (http://flightsafety.org/files/alar_bn5-3-illusions.pdf)' can play in such a scenario? E.g. amongst other elements (rain / lightening, etc), the main Islamabad Highway is 'conveniently' directly across the approach path (almost adjacent to where they crashed), and is probably within 30 degrees of being aligned with with runway. Just another consideration.

It has also been reported that this was an 'inaugural' flight for this airline, into Islamabad, a scenario which might significantly increase the pressure on the crew in terms of "get there'itus" ?!

So, Chubbychopper, you might describe the above comments as 'rocket science'. I however would rather describe it as experience, coupled with professionalism & knowledge.

Ah well, each to their own and according to their ability, eh ?! ;)

[SHRAGS]

Cat 3 is NOT for landing during a thunderstorm!

[El_Presidente]

Ye Olde Pilot Quote:
According to the initial investigation report, the last words the co-pilot said to air traffic control were “I have lost control of the plane”, after which they lost contact with the plane at around three minutes before crash.
Bhoja Air crash: ‘Acceleration at low height caused mid-air explosion’ – The Express Tribune (http://tribune.com.pk/story/367943/bhoja-air-crash-acceleration-at-low-height-caused-mid-air-explosion/)If thats accurate then wind sheer/deep stall seems a real possibility. Max thurst to climb out of the sink...

Wx can be a real bitch...

If the pax manefest is being sold to relatives, as Umairch states, then whoever is cashing in should be brought to book. Lowest of the low. Seems money and bribes, coupled with pressure to press on regardless, have once again cost the lives of innocent people.

[Mahatma Kote]

If the report is correct then an in-air disintegration is indicated. Given the current view that modern aircraft don't get downed by weather then the options are pilot error, catastrophic failure of aircraft components, or a terrorist act. The age of the aircraft tends to indicate a catastrophic failure. In my opinion the next most likely are a terrorist act and then a pilot error.

[Hotel Tango]

It always amuses me when people go on about the age of an a/c. Age means nothing if an a/c is well maintained. There are still a number of B737-200s flying in Canada and I have felt no less safer flying on them.

[oceancrosser]

SHRAGS!
Being an aussie, you would be excused for not understanding my comment, Cat.II/III approaches being a new thing down under (only recently established in Melbourne IIRC, but stand to be corrected).

I was referring to the FAA categorization of individual countries CAAs (International Travel (http://www.faa.gov/passengers/international_travel/)) of which there are but 2 categories, either cat.1 - meeting ICAO standards, or cat.2 - not meeting ICAO. Now interestingly Pakistan is cat.1, but EASA has had significant issues with PIA since 2007 (or maybe earlier).

Rant over.

[Shrike200]

Ex ZS-OLB, and despite it's age it was pefectly capable of not falling apart in mid air. Pretty solid things, those little -200's actually. Except for the #2 engine falling off just after take off, but hey...

[aterpster]

lomapaseo:
Iran Air (sister ship of TWA800).

Obviously extremely rare and even more so today

It aint the years of service, its the flight cycles and the repair cycles.

TWA sold either 6 or 7 747s to the Shaw of Iran.

Once it was determined that airplane came down north of Madrid because lightning entered through fuel tank vent TWA installed a protecting device on the entire fleet. I don't recall the particulars now but the device was supposedly fast enough to prevent lightning from getting to the fuel vapors.

[gcap]

The only way that the age of the Boeing will come into play in the investigation is if the flight crew's lack of situational awareness was brought about by having the older analog gauges instead of a more modern glass cockpit presentation. I once ( 20 years ago )had to make the transition from the Airbus 310 back to the steam gage B-727. It is a difficult transition, and if you add outside factors - thunderstorms - possible nav problems - whatever, I can see crew overload as a factor.
I have over 3000 hours in the 737-200 and I would fly one anytime, anywhere.

[virgin camel]

With a company name like that you really are tempting fate.

[SV_741_India_Bravo]

Director General Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Capt. Nadeem Yousafzai in press briefing today said that Bhoja Air was established on ILS. From radar it was handed over to Islamabad Airport ATC which asked Bhoja Air to confirm landing gear down and in lock position.

The aircraft suddenly lost height from 2900 feet to 2000 feet and then vanished from radar screen. Contact with Bhoja Air flight was lost at 6:40PM.

An AirBlue flight was following Bhoja Air flight. The AirBlue flight landed safely at Islamabad Airport five minutes after Bhoja Air accident.

It appears ILS equipped Runway 30 was operational at the time of accident.

DG CAA also said that Bhoja Air had cleared its outstanding dues.

He said that engine-maker Pratt & Whitney will also be asked to assist investigation process.

Aircraft's Flight Data/Cockpit Voice Recorder will be sent abroad for decoding process.

There are reports the pilots had radioed loss of control.

[latetonite]

Swiss cheese model comes into mind. And in that region there are very few slices, with very big holes...

[Five Livers]

According to ATDB Bhoja Air operates two Boeing 737-200's.

*AP-BKC (MSN-23167) formerly G-BKYI the aircraft involved made its first flight on December 13th of 1984 thus dating the manufacture to 27.4 years.

* AP-BKD (MSN-21793) formerly G-BGDD the selected source for the above airfleet reference.

Sources within the Pakistani CAA unofficially have said about 5.4 nautical miles before touchdown radar showed the aircraft at 200 feet AGL where it should have been at about 1,700 feet AGL.

It appears from the latest reliably sourced data available at this time the pilot reported to ATC a fuel tank fire just before a catastrophic loss of control of the aircraft occurred.

[denlopviper]

about the pictures that eye witnesses have been showing, its a B727...T tail with a third engine on the tail.

about the large area of debris, wouldnt a relatively flat high forward speed crash cause a rather long debris trail?

if the info on the altitude is correct, sounds like a microburst to me.

as for crew being threatened. there is a lack of type rated pilots in pakistan. alot of unemployed pilot yes, but most of them are SE and military time, not heavy metal. bhoja barely has enough crew to field for the fleet, so does shaheen. Airblue on the other hand has crew saturation.

the weather was bad, it wasn't THAT bad to call for a diversion, but this is just a personal observation from the ground. yes there was an active cell near the field, but i have seen BA, EY EK QR and others come into OPRN with with worse conditions.

Btw, Bhoja is a the family name for the owners.

[green granite]

Pakistan plane crash: Fuel tanks 'exploded mid air' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/9218155/Pakistan-plane-crash-Fuel-tanks-exploded-mid-air.html)

The pilot issued a mayday call, saying a fuel tank had caught fire and the plane was out of control. He asked for help to attempt an emergency landing, telling controllers he could see the roofs of homes but not the airport's landing strip.

Old aircraft, thunderstorm, fuel tank fire, corroded bonding points? Is that likely on modern aircraft?

[roaldp]

Denlopviper: Which pictures? Which eyewitnesses? Some links, please???

[denlopviper]

thats what im saying, pics are of a 727 not a 737

and this wasnt the inaugural flight into islamabad, that was on the 6th of april.

oh and the rumor that the airline or CAA were selling the manifest is pure crap.! the airline chartered a flight to fly relatives from karachi upto islamabad. you really think they will charge poeple for the list :mad:

the amount of crap being said on the news is pissing me off...

[wes_wall]

the amount of crap being said on the news is pissing me off...

Normal proceedure these days. Don't report the news, make the news.
Hopefully in time the facts will survive, and we will have a better understanding of the events.

[newscaster]

According to eyewitnesses the aircraft hit the ground rose into the air again and exploded.

The wind storms in Rawalpindi/Islamabad airport vicinity are so ferocious, I have always wondered why it isnt closed to traffic at such times, one aborted A300 landing in such conditions at night and that too the pilot decided at almost the last moment not to land, so it really seems to be at their discretion and not ATC.

[hetfield]

FIA takes Farooq Bhoja into custody (http://tribune.com.pk/story/367968/plane-crash-farooq-bhojas-name-placed-on-ecl/)

Plane crash: FIA takes Farooq Bhoja into custody – The Express Tribune (http://tribune.com.pk/story/367968/plane-crash-farooq-bhojas-name-placed-on-ecl/)

[SV_741_India_Bravo]

tyre marks in a field just before the crash site and uprooted tree(s) also located. some parts of the fuselage are totally charred, parts of the wings dont show much (or any) burn damage.

[YorkshireTyke]

Can't believe such old aircraft are in service. I know if an a/c is maintained well it can last for years (WW2 a/c etc) but I think 32 years for a commercial a/c is pushing it.

Will wait for the report before I jump to conclusions though...


Sounds as if you already have !

[The Ancient Geek]

32 years is not that old, there are still 60 year old DC3s in airline service.
What matters is the total cycles and hours as well as good maintainance.

[macuser]

flew on a BA/Comair 737-236 Joburg - Durban five years ago and was a superb flight. Never thought more about it.

[The Ancient Geek]

The problem is that Pakistan never publishes accident investigations so the only information we are ever going to get is what can be pieced together from press reports and speculation.

What is already clear is that something went badly wrong while they were passing through a storm cell on final approach. If reports of the PF reporting loss of control by radio are true (yea right) is would seem likely that the aircraft suffered damage in the storm.

Such events are rare but they have happened in the past.

[Joshilini]

1) A lot of people forget that this is a news and rumours sub-forum.

2) A lot of people remind others that this is a news and rumours sub-forum.

3) All incidents and accidents occur due to a chain of events.

4) Eye witness accounts are unreliable. Read up on the JFK assassination for example.

The probable cause of this major accident is a fatigued flight crew, who had received awful training on said type, flew into bad met. conditions and got either disoriented or did not follow standard procedure when it came to executing an instrument-related approach (i.e. CFIT).

[SLFinAZ]

The probable cause of this major accident is a fatigued flight crew, who had received awful training on said type, flew into bad met. conditions and got either disoriented or did not follow standard procedure when it came to executing an instrument-related approach (i.e. CFIT).

How absurd can you be.

Obviously very little factual information is available, however if we take the statement that the co-pilot radioed a loss of control and the unusual speed and altitude it's just as likely that either windshear or structural damage (or both) led to an unrecoverable condition.

[denlopviper]

why cant it be a microburst? why does it have to be a very complex chain of events starting when the mother gave birth to the captain? :}

for those who are current on B732, when you are about 4NM from touchdown, that puts you just over 1300feet AGL, and you are hit by a strong microburst, is that 600 to 700 feet enough to recover?

ps its been confirmed by crews on the radio at the time that there was no mayday, loss of control or fire or any non routine radio call made by the bhoja crew. last call heard was the pilots confirming landing clearance.


edited to correct altitude :\

[Machinbird]

The problem is that Pakistan never publishes accident investigations so the only information we are ever going to get is what can be pieced together from press reports and speculation.Things are changing. For example you can download the Air Blue accident report here: http://www.caapakistan.com.pk/downloads/Investigation%20Report%20-ABQ-202.pdf
The only thing about that report that bothers me is that each page is marked, "Confidential".

[Cactus99]

Denlopviper,

Interesting way of making an approach if at 5nm from touchdown and your 600ft AGL! :eek:

[denlopviper]

Cactus, dont quote my numbers. did the maths without my morning cup of joe. :\

on double checking at 4DME you should be 2938 ft...thats about 1300 agl.

[ExSp33db1rd]

NZ 6.00 pm news ( 06.00 UTC ) advises Criminal Proceedings initiated.

[Joshilini]

why cant it be a microburst? why does it have to be a very complex chain of events starting when the mother gave birth to the captain? :}

for those who are current on B732, when you are about 4NM from touchdown, that puts you just over 1300feet AGL, and you are hit by a strong microburst, is that 600 to 700 feet enough to recover?

Delta flight 191 hit a microburst on approach to DFW back in the 80s. This accident may have been a direct result of a microburst, but with that being said, the next question is, why were the crew flying into a T-storm, which leads back to crew training standards?

[denlopviper]

so let me get this straight. you went from crew fatigue, to aweful type training (which btw was done abroad, as i recall South Africa) to now saying they knowingly flew into an active thunderstorm and therefore standards of crews are bad?

just so you know the crash happened 2.5NM south east of the field, while the active CB cell was west of the field. so yeah they were out of the storms path through out the flight. also reported winds on the ground were 20kts gusting 30kts.

[No RYR for me]

Josh, please go back and try to get funding for your flight training instead of feeding every single accidant with "flight training standards" as the cause of the accidant while the wreckage is still burning. Wait until the report is out or mention something factual instead of your speculations. :rolleyes:

[stuckgear]

whatever the cause and circumstances, the 'official' report will probably hold the interior aviation authority and local politics blameless and blame apportioned to the nationility of the pilot, the age of the aircraft, the country of manufacture of the aircraft etc etc.

result.. introduce an additional medical for non-national pilots, and ban aircraft over 10 years old and 'prevention' of a repeat incident is done. and no, this is not a generalisation, but an assessment predicated on historical events.

me ? i'll wait for any NTSB data (US manufactured aircraft) before speculating on cause and circumstance.

[denlopviper]

Stuckgear

Expats are not allowed on Pakistani carriers. the only ones with expat crew are Shaheen because their 737-800 are on wet lease

both pilots were pakistani. there are no expats in Bhoja, Airblue or PIA.

know the facts atleast :ugh:

[stuckgear]

both pilots were pakistani. there are no expats in Bhoja, Airblue or PIA.

know the facts atleast :ugh:


you didn't detect the element of sarcasm then ? :ugh:

[denlopviper]

guess not. hard to detect sarcasm when there is soo much trash being thrown up in the air you know.

[Mr.Bloggs]

As regards Pakistan, no expats = no experts. Their appalling fatal accident record proves it. They cannot fly planes safely on their own. But they will keep going. Anyone daft enough to roll the dice must accept the odds. Ditto with Korean, African " carriers", and a host of Russian and Eastern European airlines. Not forgetting Mexico and many airlines south of the Mexican border. Including Cubana. Oh and a few legacy Far Eastern airlines too. As for Indonesia......Yep, flying is not a safe business folks.

[denlopviper]

can you provide accident rates in pakistan vs any western country which would justify you statement?

last time i check the number of fatal crashes of pakistani registered civilian aircrafts stood between 20 and 25. even if it were 25, 25 crashes in 65 years isnt bad.

how on earth have we not managed to crash all our airplanes since we been operating airlines for 65 years? its a freking miracle we have managed to survive without expats.

expats do bring in experience, but that can be catered for by hiring pilots who have operated with foreign carriers.

[henra]

why cant it be a microburst? why does it have to be a very complex chain of events starting when the mother gave birth to the captain? :}


Simples.
Statistics/probability.
When was the last time an airliner has been knocked right out of the sky by a gust ???
How many airliners have crashed since that last time for more conventional causes ?
Dozens if not hundreds.
(If we look for an aircraft blown out of the sky from similar altitude (DAL 191 was from 800 ft) we would have to go very far in history, if we would ever find one)

Occam's Razor applies.
Also here probably.

My hope is for NTSB to find out and communicate what really happened.

[aterpster]

Machinbird:

Things are changing. For example you can download the Air Blue accident report here: http://www.caapakistan.com.pk/downlo...20-ABQ-202.pdf (http://www.caapakistan.com.pk/downloads/Investigation%20Report%20-ABQ-202.pdf)
The only thing about that report that bothers me is that each page is marked, "Confidential".

As I recall the report wasn't released because the aviation authoritives have suddenly seen the light. I believe the families of the passengers retained very good legal counsel who convinced a high-level Pakistani judge to order the release of the report.

[Milvus Milvus]

Boeing 737-236, G-BKYI
AAIB Bulletin No: 1/98 Ref: EW/C96/11/3 Category: 1.1

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CGAQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aaib.gov.uk%2Fcms_resources%2Fdft_avsaf ety_pdf_501022.pdf&ei=gnKUT5-XIYLE8gOByczODA&usg=AFQjCNG-uZrOxRyZqMuHoMZa0pL3LU3DyQ&sig2=UE0Y3m7NrNAF4O8c1Y9GYA

[stuckgear]

last time i check the number of fatal crashes of pakistani registered civilian aircrafts stood between 20 and 25. even if it were 25, 25 crashes in 65 years isnt bad.




without supporting data, that is an irrelevence. unless it is apportioned to a comparable parameter.

you have two countries, one has a fleet with one aircraft that does one one hour flight per year and has a single incident every year

the other has a a fleet of 10,000, all doing 1,000 hours per year and has a single indicent every year...

which would you rather fly on ?

[misd-agin]

AirDisaster.Com: Statistics (http://www.airdisaster.com/statistics/)

Has data by region and by airframe.

Specific airlines in the region are 10-20x the rate of N. Europe/N. America operators.

[newscaster]

Shaheen have expat plots from Iraq and Indonesia as Captains but they dont hire foreigners anymore.

[Lonewolf_50]

"My hope is for NTSB to find out and communicate what really happened."

henra:

NTSB (from the US?) presumably due to Boeing aircraft in the mishap?

[henra]

NTSB (from the US?) presumably due to Boeing aircraft in the mishap?

Yep. Although they might not go the full length they would be going if it was on US soil or an US Airline.
Still it will probably be the best (and most objective) we will ever get to read regarding this accident.
And there are some slightly strange aspects to it (long wreckage path if reported correctly, visibility at the time is not yet really clear to me, but I haven't read anything about thick fog / zero visibility, etc.), so it potentially could be of slightly more interest than other cases where the surrounding conditions already pointed 95% towards the real cause , e.g.. spatial disorientation in zero visibility conditions at night over the sea flying manually after takeoff....

[roaldp]

According to a private television channel, Airworthiness Instructor CAA cancelled the Airworthiness Certificate for 2 flights of Bhoja Airlines bound for Islamabad via Lahore from Karachi.
“ During inspection”, Instructor said, “ Planes were found unfit for general flights both domestic and international. They are grounded until clearance and obtainment of Airworthiness Certificate”.

Bhoja aircraft banned for general flights (http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=152088)

[HAWK21M]

what is the preliminary investigation report stating.....

[denlopviper]

Roaldp

the report is a bunch of media crap. Bhoja only has 2 airplane and 2 more in the process of being purchased. 1 hull lost, 1 remains. operations suspended due to the accident, not due to safety violations.

[joe north]

I say we retire everything over 32:D

[roaldp]

"On Apr 24th 2012 the CAA announced that the airworthiness certificates of two aircraft of Bhoja Air were suspended over concerns on a number of constituent parts including landing gear and gear doors, the aircraft were found unfit for general flight. The aircraft remain grounded until found airworthy again."
Crash: Bhoja B732 at Islamabad on Apr 20th 2012, impacted terrain on approach (http://avherald.com/h?article=44e48c2a&opt=0)

The Economist:
"A rush to judgment, irresponsible comments from the government and three separate investigations are not going to do much to restore flyers' confidence in the Pakistani government's ability to safely regulate its airlines. Pakistan's state-owned flag carrier, Pakistan International Airlines, was barred from all EU airports for eight months in 2007, so it's clear that international air-travel regulators haven't had the highest opinion of Pakistan's aviation sector in the past. So far, the chaos following this incident—the second major crash near Islamabad in as many years—is only making the Pakistani government and its Civil Aviation Authority look worse."
The plane crash in Pakistan: After the tragedy, a rush to judgment | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2012/04/plane-crash-pakistan?fsrc=gn_ep)

Clive Irving:
"... travelers can be playing a form of Russian roulette if they book flights on obscure airlines in countries beyond the oversight of either American or European regulators."
Pakistan Airplane Crash: Why Bhoja Air Flight Was Risky - The Daily Beast (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/04/20/pakistan-airplane-crash-why-bhoja-air-flight-was-risky.html)

[el sol]

"LAHORE/KARACHI - Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar ordered the grounding of all private airlines until they obtained requisite technical clearance certificates, just as two planes of Shaheen Air International narrowly escaped accidents at Lahore and Karachi airports on Sunday.
Talking to reporters, the defence minister ordered for inspection of planes of all private airlines to ensure safety of passengers.
He said all private airlines had been given a shakedown message to ground their planes for thorough checking by the Civil Aviation Authority from tomorrow.
Mukhtar said if proved that the recently crashed Bhoja airline plane was not fit for flight‚ the license of the airline would be cancelled."
I particularly like the last sentence.....

[Sqwak7700]

Mukhtar said if proved that the recently crashed Bhoja airline plane was not fit for flight‚ the license of the airline would be cancelled."


Sounds like the Pakistanis have it all backward. You are supposed to confirm the airworthiness of aircraft BEFORE granting them a license. :ugh:

[jmmilner]

So in Pakistan the Defense Minister runs the Civil Aviation Authority and grounds all the private airlines but lets the state-owned airline continue flying? Is this really how things are supposed to work in Pakistan or is this just another subtext in the ongoing Army vs. the Civilian government power struggle?

[hetfield]

So in Pakistan the Defense Minister runs the Civil Aviation Authority and grounds all the private airlines but lets the state-owned airline continue flying? Is this really how things are supposed to work in Pakistan or is this just another subtext in the ongoing Army vs. the Civilian government power struggle?

PAKISTAN at it's best.....:ugh:

[stepwilk]

Didn't I just see that some Pak civil aviation authority has reported that "a fuel tank blew up"? What's -that- all about?

[denlopviper]

just saw the radar track of the aircraft.

fully established on the ILS, then in just under 10 seconds the aircraft goes from 2500 feet and 175 knots at 5.3NM (from the field, NOT DME) to 1900 feet and 215 knots at 4.5NM (again from the field, NOT DME), which is the last recorded position just before impact.

no i can not share the recording until the report comes out so please dont ask.

[aterpster]

This is a huge improvement for Islamabad.

http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa214/aterpster/OPRNRNAV12.jpg

[aterpster]

OK465:

This is the future. Credit to the civil aviation authorities. http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/smile.gif

Using brand "A" box, that leg from TAXAL to TERIK will result in about a 2.2-2.3 NM lead point for the turn approaching TERIK at the max of 220k, no wind, and a roll-out on track the same distance from TERIK outbound. With the lead point required for the turn at RN363 at the max of 210k, that leaves about 0.5-0.6 NM of 'wings level' time on the 'base'.

A poor man's RF turn.

A prudent pilot familiar with RNAV would most likely be reduced to 180 KIAS, or less by that point in the approach.

[aterpster]

ok465:

One would hope they all are...

Credit to the designers of the approach also, but why not an RNAV miss? http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/smile.gif

Beats me. But, Jepp codes the missed approach as an RNAV overlay, so the entire procedure can be flown in LNAV, including the missed approach holding pattern.

[4runner]

A 737-200 with RNAV?

[Romeo E.T.]

A 737-200 with RNAV?

my thoughts as well, having flown this exact aircraft numerous times whilst still in her BA colours, she was a HDG SEL only aircraft with a stand alone Garmin GPS unit...suitable for RNP4 enroute navigation only

[aterpster]

4runner:

A 737-200 with RNAV?

The RNAV approach Runway 12 came about because of the Air Bus circle to land crash northwest of the airport, not the later 737 that crashed into flat terrain southeast of the airport.

[inducedrag]

This is being confirmed by Bhoja employees, the carrier is most likely becoming Air Arabia Pakistan, the latter have been grounded since May