One German sky for Europe?

[achtung]

Reported in UK news..... DFS bid for UK ATC?

How likely?

Now Germany bids to seize our skies as it puts in offer for air traffic control | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2073353/Now-Germany-bids-seize-skies-puts-offer-air-traffic-control.html)

[Tchocky]

The Luftwaffe never managed it during the Second World War thanks to the heroism of The Few.
Now, seven decades on, Germany is once again plotting to take control of the skies over Britain… by the altogether more peaceful means of buying our air traffic control service.


What utter garbage.


Proper link.


http://atwonline.com/airline-finance-data/news/german-air-traffic-controller-dfs-reportedly-interested-nats-stake-1212

[rab-k]

Despite the appearance of being 'Breaking News' this story has supposedly been doing the rounds in our corridors of power for the last 6 months. :hmm:

[Mantovani]

If true this is great news for the users of the UK's airspace and for NATS employees.

The Germans know how to build successful businesses.

[Lon More]

What utter garbage. Of course Tchosky. What more do you expect from the Mail? It has always been the DFS's policy to expand. MUAC was, and still is, an obvious target.

Strange to see the place without the barrack block BTW.

[Gonzo]

Mantovani,

If you have you any friends in BMI, ask them about Lufthansa!

[ZOOKER]

Mantovani,
You say a take-over of NATS by DFS would be "great news for NATS emplyees", yet over on the 'electronics' thread you say "employees are expensive".
Please conduct us in a logical synthesis of these two apparently contradictory observations. :E

[Mantovani]

Zooker

Employees are expensive and we should only be employing those we actually need to employ. Technology is moving on and as a company NATS needs to embrace and exploit that technology.

As computers/systems do more and more work in air traffic control rooms it follows that there will be less and less staff needed in air traffic control rooms.

Who knows, one day there might be more engineers employed by NATS than controllers.

[Topjet]

Who knows, one day there might be more engineers employed by NATS than controllers
Nah, computers/robots will replace the engineers :ok:

[Aethelwulf]

Bet the controllers are replaced before the engineers are..

[Standard Noise]

Oh do give over, we were told that load of old fanny about ATCOs being replaced by computers twenty years ago............still waiting.:zzz:

[radarman]

Airbus A380, arguably one of the most computerised aircraft ever. Who got the Quantas 380 back safely on the ground? Wasn't the bloody computers, it was the crew. Same goes for ATC. When the chips are down it's the humans who save the day.

[Kiwitraveller]

DFS buying NATS?

A few more details might be useful.

NATS is the only privatised national ansp in Europe and one of only a handful in the world. NATS is not majority owned by government.

Almost all other ANSP in the world are wholly government owned monopolies, including DFS, which is corporatised. This means its run as a company and as a business. It is nevertheless a legal monopoly and cannot go bust. It has no competition for most of its activity. For DFS to buy NATS or part of NATS is effectivley selling to the Government of Germany. Not to another company.

Now making shares available for sale for all European ANSP would be a really interesting proposition, a lot of governments are looking for cash right now! And that might do more for Single European Sky than the nonsense that is FAB.

NATS is already a private company, more efficient and much closer to the EU cost and capacity targets than DFS. the BMI Lufthansa analogy is bizarre but not inappropriate.

DFS is one of the less efficient ANSP in Europe, (I believe Belgium gets the wooden spoon but I might be wrong) DFS has one of the larger cost problems in the first period of the EU ANSP performance scheme, that starts in January, with perhaps 50m euros of new DFS cost saving to find next year, if latest traffic forecasts from IATA and the German government submissions to the EU performance sceme are a guide. Thats a big number for a 1bn euro turnover organisation.

DFS is also at the heart of FABEC probably the most difficult of all EU FAB marriages and almost certainly doomed to the scrapheap in its present form.

What is much more likley than a NATS purchase as a realistic target, is the DFS or FABEC takeover of MUAC in the latter part of 2012.

If you wanted a more interesting prospective investor in NATS you might look to Toulouse, Seattle or Ottowa for clues.

Meanwhile if you want to know more about DFS you could do worse than try page 63 of this ATM directory.

CANSO ATM Report & Directory (http://www.canso.org/cms/showpage.aspx?id=2548)

2012 is going to be a year of change for European ATC. But my radar tells me that this DFS rumour is just someones dream.

Katie

[Gonzo]

the BMI Lufthansa analogy is bizarre but not inappropriate.

I wasn't making an analogy to DFS/NATS, I was responding to Mantovani's comment that;

If true this is great news for the users of the UK's airspace and for NATS employees.

The Germans know how to build successful businesses.

[Mantovani]

Nah, computers/robots will replace the engineers

Haven't come across any systems that spec themselves, design themselves, build themselves, install themselves, commission themselves, maintain themselves or fix themselves. So it's a fair assumption that the more systems NATS have the more work there will be for engineers.

Airbus A380, arguably one of the most computerised aircraft ever. Who got the Quantas 380 back safely on the ground? Wasn't the bloody computers, it was the crew. Same goes for ATC. When the chips are down it's the humans who save the day.

I agree there will always be a need for some expert and experienced staff both on the ground and it the air.

[Topjet]

Whilst I agree that most of the human element will be removed in the future, I don't believe that the engineers will be totally immune from automation.

I could argue i've yet to see a system that can separate traffic, deal with pilot requests/decision make/problem solve as well as human input can. The day this is implemented will be the day the engineers, engineer ways of making these computers be built/installed by robots, fix themselves etc etc. Only design and spec will be left. Unless engineers are clever at looking after their own.... Look at EFD at PC E and the years worth of delays with iFACTS....

[landedoutagain]

Haven't come across any systems that spec themselves, design themselves, build themselves, install themselves, commission themselves, maintain themselves or fix themselves

If you remove the 'fix themselves' part, it could easily apply to many (unnecessary?) managers..

Imagine if they could get a computer to replace the managers though, it'd save even more!! And they wouldn't need feeding at meetings...

[Kiwitraveller]

Topupper

Pay attention to EU and state political decisions around Single Europeaan Sky. Eurocontrol is an organisation of states (governments), that also happens to have a historical ANSP role at MUAC.

Eurocontrol has been in 2011 appointed by the EU as the SES Network Manager, it will also be the Flow Manager (same thing really) and the route charges collector. It has not been appointed as an ANSP.

The FABs are now the state organisations for ANSP. Not Eurocontrol.

The political debate now is only where MUAC will end up, not whether Eurocontrol will remain an ANSP. Eurocontrol will also lose it's prior regulatory role to EASA - again this has already largely happened.

Whether the FABs will eventually work is a secondary point (I think they will fail) Most likely in my opinion is a DFS takeover of MUAC, per my previous post. Why? Because the EU is demanding consolidation in Europe and Eurocontrol cannot remain as an ANSP it has lost the legal remit.

LVNL and Belgocontrol will be reduced to TMA managers - which is really all they are now - and forced by the EU performance scheme demands to downsize their costs, which in turn will mean more cost scrutiny and likely a loss of non-operational roles in management. They are both likely candidates for DFS takeover. Just like Lufthansa and SN Brussels really! At the end of the day its about money. This may end up being how FABEC actually works! (with France or Germany absorbing Skyguide)

All very interesting to watch. The only thing that is certain is change. Any of this can be argued, but it is where European ATC is headed right now.

Katie

[saintex2002]

Katie, you seem to well understand the next future SES policy... but what about the next european ATCOs collective policy ???... Changes or no changes ???... any idea ???...

[Kiwitraveller]

Saintex

You will have to develop your own opinion on that one.

To work it out you will need to read the report of the EU Independent Performance Review Board - its worth the effort.

Then take a look at any European ANSP costs, and head count - this is all public information.

Then work out how that ANSP can meet its cost and capacity obligations under the performance scheme. (Safety has to improve at the same time)

As this thread is called one German Sky for Europe, try the numbers for DFS. It really is an interesting exercise. Belgocontrol is even more fun.

It should not take long to figure out that the ATCOs will have fewer managers, head offices will be smaller, training will be outsourced, and most likely ANS provision at smaller airports will be contracted out to smaller and cheaper providers, so that the en-route service costs can be kept down. All this to reduce unit rate charges to airlines.

So what does that mean for the European collective policy? I don't know, but I doubt there is any scenario where pay and conditions will get better. Remember your admin colleagues and your managers are looking at fewer jobs, at least the operational ATCOs will still have employment.

But thats just my opinion!

Katie

[saintex2002]

Katie, don't you know me ???...
I'm the one who ask for a total and exclusive european atcos collective merged into our private company... the only one able to sell our air traffic control knowledge to the entire SES... the only one able to respect our job and our needs... the only one able to maintain safety and a continuous european service... and surely, able to end the war the profession is facing...
...and maybe, if we really want it, the only one to offer lower charges to airlines... ;)

[iamhere]

apparently the germans at the dfs in langen are having talks about taking over skyguides training operation in dubendorf and setting up a new center in southern germany. starting with the takeover of the skyguide training sektion (and moving it to a site in southern germany) in 2015, they are planning to follow that up with the repossession of their airspace over southern germany which, at the moment, the swiss control. they say this will tidy up things nicely (for them). more income from route chages i guess.

i also here the dfs will follow up on any nats bid for the provision of atc services swiss airports when the situation in switzerland alows this in the near future.

anybody know more about these items ?

[ATC Watcher]

Katie you are extremely well informed as always.
I disagree only with one point : I am not sure DFS is ready to take over MUAC for the reason you mentioned : they are out of cash. The recent GdF strike/agreement has done MUAC good in that any money set aside for an eventual take over is gone ( or will be soon gone ).
Because "buying" MUAC means huge Financial penalties to pay to the 2 other partners, as per the 1972 treaty, still in force..

The former FABEC head now chairs the Group on the future Institutions for Maastricht, and has put 5 options on the table. But until now it was the 2 German Ministries , transport and Defence ( we must not forget Lippe) calling the shots, not the DFS leadership. So DFS alone ? I don't think so. Consortium DFS-NVNL-Belgocontrol, more likely I would say. Satu quo ? possible ..Eurocontrol cannot be an ANSP anymore but could manage an ATS facility on request and behalf of States asking for it under new rules. .But I do not think this is the favored option at the moment.

I might of course be wrong in the end, but we'll see.

[BrATCO]

Iamhere, they say this will tidy up things nicely (for them).
...Unless the French decide they need the space they lease to the Swiss, West of Geneva. They could decide to take back and work their airspace.

Fact is that they could need it to change the routes in Reims ACC (that's part of one of the FABEC's projects). In this case, thanks to FABEC applying SESAR, there would be no more Geneva ACC... :rolleyes:
This will mostly depend on the Americans' decision to free the military areas they use around DIK (Luxembourg) for their airbase in Ramstein... or not...

I love Merton's law ! :E

[ATC Watcher]

.Unless the French decide they need the space they lease to the Swiss, West of Geneva. They could decide to take back and work their airspace

Vieux chantage ...(old blackmail ) to keep the Swiss on the edge.But not fitting the FABEC image very well I'd say.


Re the future of Reims as an ACC, that is interesting. In FABEC it is obvious that with Rhein, Maastricht and Reims one centre (at least) has to go. The German and the French think it will be Maastricht but the final truth might be elsewhere. Look at the recent investments made ( and already paid) in Rhein and Maastricht, both using very advanced systems (NFDPS and Favorit )both based on Indra,(i.e compatible) and the ability to increase the number of sectors instantly , ( Computing capacity and Ops room space. ) Then look at the sector capacities declared to the CFMU in all 3 centres.
Also Reims being State own and its staff civil servants, relocating them will be cheap, unlike in MUAC and Rhein.
If the decision would be purely on finacial ,costs-benefits, capacity terms, Reims is the one to go.

But that kind of decsion will be political,. not financial, so Reims will probably stay.. but who knows ?

[Kiwitraveller]

The speculation about NATS, MUAC and DFS, Skyguide and now Reims is interesting.

I offer the following thoughts per my earlier posts, first for NATS, as I suggested before, look to Toulouse not Langen for a prospect with real legs.

For MUAC, I agree with ATC watcher, my bet is some kind of multinational FABEC derived solution probably DFS/LVNL is the most probable, and to be concluded in the latter part of 2012. Not Eurocontrol in any form.

For anything French expect more very public scrutiny and pressure on controller pay and conditions, before any significant changes. This worked for the employers in Ireland and Spain. Mainly for this reason therefore, I dont expect to see any FABEC consolidation in France for some time.. 2- 3 years perhaps longer.

Skyguide is harder to judge, but consolidation is likely, most probable on the German side, because France will be too slow (see above) for the Swiss, who want to move quickly. France will lose out as a result.

Elsewhere as I have said before, there is increasing indication that outsourcing of towers and training by the less efficient ANSP will be used to cut costs. In other words the less efficient ANSP will shrink quite quickly.

Expect new entrants over the next year or so, in the ATC service business as a result, in the airline world easyjet came out of nowhere to change the European scene and to dominate a large market. A similar step change for ATC is increasingly likely.

Very interesting times

Katie

[Kiwitraveller]

That should put a stop to the NATS takeover stories!



"German air navigation service provider DFS will replace its entire senior executive team at the end of this year.
The supervisory board has decided not to extend the contracts of chief executive and board chairman Dieter Kaden, Jens Bergmann, director finance and human resources, and Ralph Riedle, managing director operations, at the end of 2012.
Bergmann has been central in the remuneration conflict with air traffic controllers, which led to planned industrial action in August, although this eventually did not take place.
A DFS spokeswoman said that none of the executives' contracts were prematurely ended. "


Now its just about the 50m hole in the budget this year. Hold on for a rough ride!


Katie

[5milesbaby]

Kiwitraveller - unless that is because they are accelerating the NATS takeover and will be using the NATS executive to run BOTH companies :}

[Lon More]

But that kind of decsion will be political,

Was it ever any other way? Too many egos and empires involved.

[cutabove]

hi

could anyone please provide me with an e-mail address to forward my cv for application for employment as ATCO with DFS??