15 ton "Big blu" [Archive]

Finningley Boy

28th Nov 2011, 18:57

If you want my opinion for all it's worth, I'm more inclined to believe that the Americans have trained up a double of one of Ach Ma Dinner Jacket's aids. Once he gets into a prominent position, he'll do for the Iranian Honcho with a lethal Vulcan death grip! Just like Mr Spoc!:8

After he's done the deed, he'll escape down the Presidential Toilet u-bend, crawl through the Tehran sewers and emerge at a pre-determined Rendezvous point. Here an SAS crew will be waiting to drench him down with a high-pressure hose, and then he'll be picked up together with the SAS guys by an R.A.F. Chinook. This'll spirit our heroic bods away to an R.N. Frigate waiting in the Persian Gulf, providing the Iranian Navy haven't, in he meantime, impounded the damn thing. From here it'll be off back to blighty or state side or whatever to regail the Western Press with the whole story about how Anglo-American co-operation saved the world from another bad bugger.:ok:

What does anyone else think?:confused:

FB:)

cazatou

28th Nov 2011, 19:05

FB

Have you ever had the misfortune to pass by a Tehran sewer?

Finningley Boy

28th Nov 2011, 19:49

Hi Caz,

I'm sure the average Tehran sewer is not particularly pleasant to go for swim/paddle through. However, I' sure our Uncla Sam's man in Tehran wil be trained to cope by the CIA/Yank Special forces and all. Anyway, its because of his likely state that I very much imagine the SAS guys will fetch up with the old Garden Hose! I mean... they're a pretty hard as nails bunch, I know, but I bet the toughest of even them's stomach would flip one or twice if placed in close proximity for any length of time to some bod who's just been for a dip in the afore mentioned.:yuk:

FB:)

air pig

28th Nov 2011, 19:52

Is one of our bombs missing tonight, reports of a big bang in Isfahan, various descriptions of blast size from a firework to a window rattler.

500N

28th Nov 2011, 19:54

Finningley Boy

The "request for a campaign / op medal" seems to be missing from the end of your description - or does that come 50 years later ?:O

I'll get my coat.

Finningley Boy

28th Nov 2011, 19:59

500N,

I know a thing or two about this, and it'd be all very hush hush!

Believe me, ...erm, the chaps would probably get something in lieu of a public gong.. A night out with a tart or something.:cool:

FB :)

SASless

28th Nov 2011, 21:18

Nope....but did stay in a hotel in Ahwaz with the ol' vented sewer running middle of the hallway that had the rooms off to each side. I can imagine it is much the same as any Jube in Tehran. Matter of fact....Tehran Jubes were not all that obnoxious....but that was in the time of the Shah when things were a bit more Westernized.

TEEEJ

28th Nov 2011, 23:34

air pig wrote

Is one of our bombs missing tonight, reports of a big bang in Isfahan, various descriptions of blast size from a firework to a window rattler.

Satellite Image Showing Damage from November 12, 2011 Blast at Military Base in Iran

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/images/Missile_Base_After_Explosion_annotated_copy_thumb.jpg

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/images/Missile_Base_Before_annotated_copy_thumb.jpg

From

Institute for Science and International Security › ISIS Reports › Satellite Image Showing Damage from November 12, 2011 Blast at Military Base in Iran (http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base/)

Iran reports cloud details of missile commander death in base explosion - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/report-iran-revolutionary-guard-commander-killed-in-explosion-was-testing-missile/2011/11/19/gIQATpznaN_story.html)

jamesdevice

28th Nov 2011, 23:47

best to consider whether these news reports may be related to am Iranian knee-jerk following the explosion
Iran 'arrests 12 CIA spies' accused of targeting nuclear programme - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8911970/Iran-arrests-12-CIA-spies-accused-of-targeting-nuclear-programme.html)
Fars News Agency :: Intelligence Minister: Captured Spies Active in All Fields (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007275211)

500N

29th Nov 2011, 10:04

SAM

I'll take that bet if you want to offer it to someone else as well except with a different reward.

Re " Immediately after receiving a nuclear strike Israel could not launch a counter attack - end of story."

That is a big assumption and I would say you are wrong. Israel will retaliate even if it is a Nuclear bomb. Iran won't be able to wipe out all of Israel in one go.

Mach Two

29th Nov 2011, 11:16

Wow, Sam! That's one hell of scenario that you paint. Food for a lot of thought. Thank you.

HTB

29th Nov 2011, 11:28

The inane ramblings of SAM Man are more like an amalgam of rejected plots from the less lucid moments of Tom Clancy, Freddy Forsyth, Nelson DeMille and Andy theNab. But not quite as entertaining.

I'm in for a slice of the wager too, if the offer is still on the table (little does he realise that if I stop posting as HTB I can always come back with a different name...doh!).

As he said in an earlier post "The ramblings of a mad Englishman..."; although he forgot to mention the bigoted fantasist elements of those ramblings.

Where did he get the large knife, where did his pal get to, was the "large black man" not armed?:eek:

Keep it coming SAM, we all need a bit of light relief during the darkling days of Winter.

Mister B

Mach Two

29th Nov 2011, 11:37

Erm, HTB. "little does he realise..." He does now.

HTB

29th Nov 2011, 11:45

Nah. He he's too dim to pick up on that...doh!

Mister b

Courtney Mil

29th Nov 2011, 12:34

So, have the US bought these for Iran or N. Korea? Or both? 8 seems to be a very specific number, as if they have the targets picked out already.

HTB

29th Nov 2011, 12:59

I'm wondering if SAM means "Armageddon" instead of just a measly "apocalypse". I note that he missed out India invading/nukeing Pakistan, or vice versa.

Courtney, where you a young Fg Off visiting Akrotiri in the mid 70s who devised a game that involved stopping the billiard room fan rotating by using the top of your head? Or was that a different Courtney?

Mister B

Courtney Mil

29th Nov 2011, 13:06

HTB. Might have been slightly later than that, but, yes, it was I. The whole idea was to stop the fan in one hit. Hence lots of pictures of me with big gashes in my forehead. I only did it because it was incredibly mature and sensible!

I would think "armageddon".

Courtney

HTB

29th Nov 2011, 13:19

Yes, I think Armageddon as well, these things have a tendency to escalate and everone wants to join in with their nuclear toys.

I'm a bit hazy on the time, but I remember the gory details. I think we had actually been having a game of something involving balls before your more inventive game - I recall my partner distracting you after you had chalked your cue so that I could de-chalk it with a wet thumb. I don't think it would have made a difference to any of our shots due to the intake of whatever was to hand at the time.

Anyway, we won't be able to do that sort of thing after Christmas because the world will have descended in nuclear winter following the raid on Iran...

Mister B

Courtney Mil

29th Nov 2011, 13:52

Ah! Indeed! Happy, happy days. Better get fan stopping before it's too late, then.

Drink up!

Courtney

500N

29th Nov 2011, 14:01

SAMXXV
"Lets see where we are in a few week's time then............http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/confused.gif"

SAM, since you are so confident and now 2 other people have said they will take the bet (HTB and myself), how about "stepping up to the plate" and accepting the challenge ?

or did someone other than the large black man get his balls chopped off
with the "large knife".

OK, SAM, here is my bet for you. I'll look in the morning to see if you have accepted.

If I lose, I'll give 50 pounds to a service charity or two.

(in view of some people's views on H4H I'll to a quick ask around before deciding but more than likely a RAF orientated one since this is a RAF orientated forum).

.

HTB

29th Nov 2011, 14:21

Just thinking back to SAM's little runaway adventure when he was about 14 years old (if the pofile is to be believed); I think I know where the friendly black man took him and his pal. After a few changes of tube station, he ended up at the east end of the Hammersmith and City Line (or if you like, 3 stops past Plaistow on the District Line).:rolleyes:

Mister B

Mach Two

29th Nov 2011, 14:29

D'oh!!! I had to reach for the tube map to get that one. Stupid me!

Lonewolf_50

29th Nov 2011, 14:51

Why should the USA develop a conventional ( as opposed to a neccessary small nuclear bomb) to depose the Iranian Government?

That isn't the aim of the conventional bomb in question. It's aim is to get at hardened underground sites in a variety of places all over the globe, which I think includes Korea.

You could, if you wanted to, bomb the Iran nuke sites without deposing the government in Iran. It is my opinion that B-2 would be the platform of choice, but I understand why other choices are also considered.

Why do you think this will happen within the next six weeks? What drives that timeline? Seems arbitrary.

HTB

29th Nov 2011, 14:58

LW 50

I believe there is only one poster on this thread who thinks that such an event is likely [before Christmas] - he who started it; the rest is speculation on escalation, retaliation, obliteration.

Mister B

Mach Two

29th Nov 2011, 15:32

Assuming fission/fussion, a 10 MT weapon would create a fireball about 3 miles across and would cause burns to exposed skin out to about 20 miles. Blast damage to non-hardened structures out to about 10 miles. Fallout doesn't stop at national boundaries.

To get a 10 MT yield would require roughly a 4,000kg bomb - that takes a big rocket to lift (about the size of Redstone???). I think the largest yield weapon that the US had produced until last year was only about 9 MT.

Israel is about 8,500 square miles and has nearly 8 million inhabitants - some 20% of Arab decent. Is that a viable target?

Anyway, that wasn't the thread, was it?

Mach Two

29th Nov 2011, 15:36

Yeah. I agree they're not making any friends, are they?

500N

29th Nov 2011, 15:48

Mach Two

SAM Can't let the facts get in the way of a good story, even if he does contradict himself from one post to the next.

The world expert on Middle East policy, US Policy, Israel's Tactics, Nuclear fall out and everything else under the sun :O (hopefully not Nuclear Sunshine)
.

500N

29th Nov 2011, 15:52

SAM
Good to see you have contradicted yourself again. I thought it was going to Wipe out all of Israel and stop them from retaliating ?

Anyway, are you going to accept my bet ?

Since you now say Mid December, I'll double my bet to 100 pounds if you accept.

Mach Two

29th Nov 2011, 16:00

The numbers I gave are about ballpark for an optimum altitude burst rather than surface. So that's about the biggest blast/thermal distance you can expect from that class of weapon.

Tourist

29th Nov 2011, 18:00

"Therefore I predict that the failing Obama administration will use B2's to deliver exactly 8 conventional warheads (TNT - call it what you will) on the Iranian underground facilities before Xmas. "

Excellent!

The bet is on......

Willard Whyte

29th Nov 2011, 18:22

I'm sure there are many who would see iran bombed into the stone age.

Quite how dropping bombs on that country will lead to the necessary advances to achieve this is a moot point.

rmac

29th Nov 2011, 18:29

Sam

I've been tracking your online sparring and on many points have been quite intrigued, even finding some basis for truth..

But for me, the story of the black man and the knife ....WTF

As they say on Dragons Den.........I'm out

500N

29th Nov 2011, 19:04

SAM
I see you are ignoring my challenge / bet.

Are you not sure of your facts or don't you have the balls to back up what you say with something a bit more substantial. If the amount is too high, I would be happy to lower it to a level you are happy with without any adverse comment from me as I don't know your circumstances.

Or should I take it that you, as a representative of the RAF are letting other current RAF and Ex RAF down by not accepting a challenge from the Green side ?

Where I come from, if you didn't accept the challenge from the other services you were a real pussy and let your side down.

Maybe my expectations were a bit high:O

Lonewolf_50

29th Nov 2011, 19:34

Sam Sounds about right, however, you assume detonation at the surface (?). If that weapon was a delayed charge that detonated some 30 metres underground then it would have minimal impact within 10 Km (dirty fallout & wind direction ignored). If I wanted to launch a nuclear bomb on Israel I would ensure that it was on Tel Aviv with an atmospheric detonator to explode at 5-10 thousand feet. No "dirty radioactive" dustcloud, but maximum effect to destroy most of Israel instantly.
Depending upon what the local earth/rock is made of, getting the bomb about 30M into the ground before detonating is no small trick.

Can it be done? No comment. Maybe, maybe not.

The idea of the conventional bomb isn't that it waits until 200 feet deep to detonate, it's that its energy is sufficient to reach deep into the substrate once it penetrates as far as it can.

@ Willard: I agree that dropping bombs on Iran doesn't seem to resolve the underlying political problem very much. It may allow blowing up those buildings in the nuclear program that the Iranians are't blowing up themselves. Last I read, the 22 Nov event was a controlled demolition of some buildings on that site, done by the Iranian authorities for their own reasons. (Covering tracks? Contamination? Who knows?)

As to today's blast ... which occurred but then didn't occur ... who knows?

high spirits

29th Nov 2011, 19:53

1. Take the bet.

2. Admit you are a Walt loner.

3. Do nothing(And then everyone
knows you are a lying 'number two')

dead_pan

29th Nov 2011, 19:57

Why not drop one of these GBU jobbers on top of ArmouredDinnerJacket? It'd open a big enough crack in the Earth that we'd be able to hand him directly to old Nick. With him out of the way the regime would then hopefully go the way of Libya's - its what the majority of Iranians want.

jamesdevice

29th Nov 2011, 23:07

"Is the destructive power as much as the 22.000lb Grand Slam Bomb ?"

Checking the internet reveals the following. However remember that nothing on the internet can be trusted....

Grand Slam
Weight - variously quoted as 22,000 or 22,400 lb. The lesser seems to to be more likely
Charge / weight ratio 42% i.e.9408lb of explosive (Torpex) (edit - Wikidpaedia says 9,135 lb)
However there needs to be a caveat here as Paul Brickhill in his book "The Dam Busters" states the rough forgings weighed ten tons before machining i.e. 22400lb
That would mean 60% or so of the forging would have to be machined away before filling and fitting with fusing etc. Does that sound realistic?

MOP
weight 30,000lb
charge "more than 5,300lb" - actual explosive unstated

So the actual charge is only around 60% of that of the Grand Slam - but with newer explosive technology that could be totally irrelevant.. Modern explosives have come a long way since WWII
The actual bomb weighs around 40% more and so has a much lower charge/weight ratio of around 18%. i.e. it has a heavier stronger case which should enable it to be dropped from greater heights and take a heavier impact / terminal velocity. And in theory penetrate further

jamesdevice

30th Nov 2011, 09:44

If the Arab League are as good as their threats and impose a no-fly zone for Syrian aircraft, it would be incredibly fortuitous for Israel. No-one to stop them at all - unless the Turks were to contest Israeli passage over Syria. Anyone see that happening?

HTB

30th Nov 2011, 09:48

SAM ex 15

Is that bet with 500N for your revised timetable of middle December? Only 15 days away.

Do you want to take my wager as well, on the same terms as for 500N?

Mister B

APG63

30th Nov 2011, 09:50

SAMXXV. I've been watching here with great interest. I doubt I've ever seen a thread that was so 1 v many before. I occurred to me to wonder what's really going on. One of these?

1. You're winding everyone up, in which case hats off to you and keep it up!

2. You have access to good intel, in which case you should stop immediately.

3. This is your own analysis that you truly believe and you're sticking to your guns despite overwhelming opposition to your views, in which case hats off and keep going.

4. You've come off your medication when you shouldn't have, in which case start taking the pills again, but still keep posting because it's enormous fun.

Either way, as long as you're careful about what you reveal/postulate, thanks for a really entertaining thread and good luck with the bets. :D

500N

30th Nov 2011, 10:02

SAMXXV

Ack

£50 is fine by me.

We are still working to the same timetable of "say Mid December" ?
Since you are in the UK, let's make it by exactly 2359 hrs Z 15 Dec 2011
that was it doesn't matter where in the world it happens, we are all working
on the same time.

My charity will be decided if I lose and chosen as per my previous post.

Yes, things have progressed along a fair bit. We will see.

I have no contacts anywhere in the UK and certainly not in the MOD / FO.
Re Brown Jobs / Green Jobs, Army and my beret was always green to me.

500N

30th Nov 2011, 10:29

SAM
Stop changing the date.

See your post 52 on the preceding page.

I quote
"I now bring my bet of a severe air strike on Iran to mid December.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/cool.gif"

.
Well done to your son. He'll soon know if he is good enough, hope he is. I very nearly joined the Paras in '81 but came to Aust instead. In some ways still wished I had joined them.

ORAC

30th Nov 2011, 10:43

As to today's blast ... which occurred but then didn't occur ... who knows?

Looks like attacks, by one means or another, are already in progress...

A second Iranian nuclear facility has exploded, as diplomatic tensions rise between the West and Tehran
(http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/a-second-iranian-nuclear-facility-has-exploded-as-diplomatic-tensions-rise-between-the-west-and-tehran/story-e6frg6so-1226209996774)

AN IRANIAN nuclear facility has been hit by a huge explosion, the second such blast in a month, prompting speculation that Tehran's military and atomic sites are under attack.

Satellite imagery seen by The Times confirmed that a blast that rocked the city of Isfahan on Monday struck the uranium enrichment facility there, despite denials by Tehran. The images clearly showed billowing smoke and destruction, negating Iranian claims yesterday that no such explosion had taken place. Israeli intelligence officials told The Times that there was "no doubt" that the blast struck the nuclear facilities at Isfahan and that it was "no accident".

The explosion at Iran's third-largest city came as satellite images emerged of the damage caused by one at a military base outside Tehran two weeks ago that killed about 30 members of the Revolutionary Guard, including General Hassan Moghaddam, the head of the Iranian missile defence program. Iran claimed that the Tehran explosion occurred during testing on a new weapons system designed to strike at Israel. But several Israeli officials have confirmed that the blast was intentional and part of an effort to target Iran's nuclear weapons program.

On Monday, Isfahan residents reported a blast that shook tower blocks in the city at about 2.40pm and seeing a cloud of smoke rising over the nuclear facility on the edge of the city. "This caused damage to the facilities in Isfahan, particularly to the elements we believe were involved in storage of raw materials," said one military intelligence source. He would not confirm or deny Israel's involvement in the blast, instead saying that there were "many different parties looking to sabotage, stop or coerce Iran into stopping its nuclear weapons program".

Iran went into frantic denial yesterday as news of the explosion at Isfahan emerged. Alireza Zaker-Isfahani, the city's governor, claimed that the blast had been caused by a military exercise in the area but state-owned agencies in Tehran soon removed this story and issued a government denial that any explosion had taken place at all.

On Monday, Dan Meridor. the Israeli Intelligence Minister, said: "There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat."

Major-General Giora Eiland, Israel's former director of national security, told Israel's army radio that the Isfahan blast was no accident. "There aren't many coincidences, and when there are so many events there is probably some sort of guiding hand, though perhaps it's the hand of God," he said.

A former Israeli intelligence official cited at least two other explosions that have "successfully neutralised" Iranian bases associated with the Shahab-3, the medium-range missile that could be adapted to carry a nuclear warhead. "This is something everyone in the West wanted to see happen," he added..............

500N

30th Nov 2011, 10:50

SAM

My understanding of " is that an attack on Iran will occur" is that the Israelis and the US will DROP bombs on Iran / Iranian facilities FROM Military aircraft.

Do you want to include Missiles (ie Cruise type) in the list as well ?

Your thoughts ?

.

Mach Two

30th Nov 2011, 14:48

I'm not sure that answered 500N's question, Sam.

HTB

30th Nov 2011, 15:10

Some sinister force must be censoring Radio 4; there ain't much mention of all this iminent doom on the Today, World at One or PM programmes (nor the regular news bulletins).

By the way, how do you know where the UK and US have deployed their SSBN assets?

Mister B

TEEEJ

30th Nov 2011, 15:18

SAMXXV wrote

... see the CIA TR1 (overflying Iran) Elint today.

A bit behind the times there, Sam. The TR-1 designation went nearly 20 years ago.

The last U-2 and TR-1 aircraft were delivered to the Air Force in October 1989. In 1992 all TR-1s and U-2s were redesignated U-2R.

From

SENIOR YEAR U-2 / TR-1 (http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/u-2-variants.htm)

The military operated U-2Rs underwent an upgrade including a new engine. After upgrading with the F-118-101 engine, the former U-2Rs were designated the U-2S.

As to 'CIA operated U-2s' over Iran. The USAF operate the U-2S and NASA operate the ER-2s. The U-2 is a highly vulnerable platform for a direct overflight. It certainly wouldn't be overflying Iran. Peripheral collection using slant sensors from International or friendly airspace is what would be taking place. If anything was assigned to operate over Iran in an intelligence collection role it certainly wouldn't be a manned platform.

The Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel has for example been photographed operating from Afghan bases.

New Photos of USAF RQ-170 Sentinel released | Defence Aviation (http://www.defenceaviation.com/2011/01/new-photos-of-usaf-rq-170-sentinel-released.html)

UAVs Dominate Surveillance And Targeting | AVIATION WEEK (http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/asd/2010/08/10/05.xml&headline=UAVs%20Dominate%20Surveillance%20And%20Targeting)

Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_RQ-170_Sentinel)

Lonewolf_50

30th Nov 2011, 15:30

TEEJ/SAM/ORAC

1. If the Israelis are involved in these two explosions, that indicates to me no need whatsoever for the IAF to fly over Iran and drop bombs. It would seem that another means has been figured out. But I am not sure what to make of the cryptic comments from the Israelis, as information warfare and deception are becoming more frequently and subtly used by a lot of different parties. (See the Pakistan/US mess currently underway along the Pak?Afghan border).

2. U2 over flights, Iran. No. I can say that with some operational experience, having worked on some stuff a few years back that included a whole variety of surveillance packages in that part of the world. No further comment.

3. UAV's: heh, part of the reason to use some of those assets is that they are very, very hard to detect. Who knows what assets are being used to keep any eye on Iran's nuclear sites?

4. Don't forget various satellites.

Cheers.

500N

30th Nov 2011, 15:39

Interesting developments (yes, I know it is from the Telegraph!!!)
• William Hague orders closure of Iran embassy in London
• All Iranian officials ordered to leave within the next 48 hours
• Britain withdraws diplomatic staff from Iran after embassy attacks
• Norway closes its Tehran embassy citing security concerns
• David Cameron says Britain considering 'very tough action'

You never know SAM, you might be in with a chance !!! LOL

SAM
Re your quote "Israel requires permission", that is funny. sorry, but israel does not ask permission of Syria if they are going to over fly to bomb someone. They might ask the US re Iraq airspace but not others if they don't have to.
Another "Green Leader" moment ?????? LOL

Re your quote "Israel just cannot stand back & accept the threats of being wiped off the planet by Iran. Would you?"
I would have thought you would have worked out by now that I don't back down from a fight / challenge so No, I would not accept it.

Lonewolf
I agree re UAV'S / Satellites.

To be honest, I am amazed at what info is out and publicly available on the internet or has become public since the US invaded Afghanistan.

500N

30th Nov 2011, 15:46

SAM
I am trying to be black and white here re the bet so no ambiguity occurs but you are NOT answering the question re the time.

I have reproduced my post below

"Stop changing the date.
See your post 52 on the preceding page.
I quote
"I now bring my bet of a severe air strike on Iran to mid December.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/cool.gif"

So SAM, you changed the original bet to mid December and that is why I am working on Mid December, as specified by my ZULU time / date designation.
Stop trying to give yourself extra time.

Anyone else care to chime in re what they think the date deadline of the bet should be ? The SAME as SAM's original bet ?

Tourist

30th Nov 2011, 16:00

I really don't think it will make any difference.....

500N

30th Nov 2011, 16:11

"I really don't think it will make any difference....."

I am happy to pay up if proved wrong but SAM opened his big mouth and I am not going to let him wriggle out of it by extending the date to give him a few extra days.

Especially since he (SAM) keeps chopping and changing on everything else in this thread, especially or even when others who seem / are far more knowledgeable post facts that are the opposite to what he has posted.

He made his bed, now he can sleep in it.

Well at least if I win, you win which means SAM won't be around any more to post ?????

Tourist

30th Nov 2011, 17:25

amen brother.....

Mach Two

30th Nov 2011, 17:52

That's what I meant, SAM. You didn't answer 500N's question. In fact, I think you need to address all his points. My take, for what it's worth, is that your bet is:

Big Blu dropped on Iranian nuclear sites by Is/US by 15th December.

Here's another thought for you. Will Israel really risk being caught taking such agressive action when they know that they are surrounded by Arab nations who are looking for an excuse to jump over their garden fence and try to beat the crap out of them?

READ WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING AND ADDRESS THE POINTS rather than keep spouting different positions every day and conveniently ignoring what's been said to you.

Are you sure that APG63's first point isn't closer to the truth? Or is this attention seeking?

Oh, and you don't need to keep quoting entire posts. Be concise.

M2

APG63

30th Nov 2011, 18:06

500N, I support your position, but he (SAM) did change it to "mid-December".

Mach Two, well said.

One thing, though. I've been looking through SAM's other posts at some length (out of interest as to where he's coming from) and I have had to rethink my point 1. I don't think this is a wind-up. He's like this in every thread. Off the plot, out of date, random and with some very strange an irrelevant extras - the guy that befriended him, his son, his post as Op O in Laarbruch, etc. All a bit strange. No, it's not a wind-up, it's something else.

Tourist, hear, hear.

Lone Wolf, wise words.

Still a cracking thread.

500N

30th Nov 2011, 18:15

I'd like to run a Psych profile on SAM, I think it would be very interesting case study.:O

However that might ruin his RAF career - if he is in the RAF !

SAM
Enough other posters are in agreement without any disagreeing so it's Mid December and I'll re post it just to be sure you understand.

"let's make it by exactly 2359 hrs Z 15 Dec 2011"

Now that is settled, I'm off the bet subject until the 15th (unless all out war starts before then :O)

Let's get this thread back on the interesting discussions and SAM's rantings and ravings on US / Israeli policy and tactics.
.

Willard Whyte

30th Nov 2011, 18:29

I would describe mid-December as sometime between about the 10th and about the 21st.

Ish.

Maybe he's got the year wrong and is thinking of Dec 21st 2012?

2012 phenomenon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon)

500N

30th Nov 2011, 18:36

Willard

Don't you start :O

Back on topic

These "explosions" that have been occurring - and remember that a General was killed which to me seemed a bit strange.

What are people's thoughts ?
- Internal factions within Iran getting rid of opponents ?
- US / Israeli involvement ?
- Sabotage from / by whoever, US / Israeli or even internal ?
- Messy safety procedures and / or trying to do some things too fast
and cutting corners, causing fatal safety mistakes which in turn leads
to a chain reaction just like Aircraft crashes, no one cause ?

Mach Two

30th Nov 2011, 18:38

Willard, how on earth did you happen across that? Fascinating, but scary that you knew it was there! :ok:

Mach Two

30th Nov 2011, 18:39

500N. Dunno. Lots of those are possible. Don't worry about it. I'm sure SAM will know!

Willard Whyte

30th Nov 2011, 18:43

Looking at the damage, assuming all of which was the result of the 'event' and not subsequent clean-up ops, it must have been a bloody big bang.

If it was a Shahab 3, a liquid single stage missile, then either the launch pad was reasonably close to the buildings or they were shifting it fully fueled. Neither strikes me as particularly sensible.

MissileThreat :: Shahab 3 variants (http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesoftheworld/id.190/missile_detail.asp)

Mach Two

30th Nov 2011, 18:46

Willard. Concur.

Willard Whyte

30th Nov 2011, 18:47

Willard, how on earth did you happen across that? Fascinating, but scary that you knew it was there!

Dec 21st 2012 rang a bell. I amuse* myself by looking at end of the word/conspiracy theory/fake moon landing/etc. bullsh1t in my spare time.

*by which I mean I find it hilarious.

500N

30th Nov 2011, 19:11

Willard
This comment is interesting from the same page as the photos of the damage.

"Iran was apparently performing a volatile procedure involving a missile engine at the site when the blast occurred."

Along the lines of
"Messy safety procedures and / or trying to do some things too fast
and cutting corners, causing fatal safety mistakes"

Re the "then either the launch pad was reasonably close to the buildings"
I would be surprised if they made that mistake. Having been to Woomera Rocket range, the closest building to the launch sites was quite some distance away, far enough not to be affected by an explosion on the launch pad.

Willard Whyte

30th Nov 2011, 19:28

Yeah I read the bit about an engine test.

It all seems rather odd. I'd think it obvious to "perform a volatile procedure" away from non-hardened buildings. If it was sloppy procedures then they didn't learn from the numerous launch pad events on either side of the iron curtain during the cold war - and a few since then.

Even in this Atlas explosion the blast seems reasonably localised.

Atlas-Centaur 5 pad fallback, 1965 - YouTube

It could have been a test of the mooted larger Shahab 4,5 or 6 but the same lessons would hold true, unless they seriously miscalculated the potential blast.

500N

30th Nov 2011, 19:38

Most explosions and danger areas can be calculated.

What can't be is the distance and direction of shrapnel but shrapnel didn't do the damage.

The Main building at Woomera, I think it was called EC6 had really thick concrete walls and smallish windows and that was some distance from the pad.

JFZ90

30th Nov 2011, 21:14

On Monday, Dan Meridor. the Israeli Intelligence Minister, said: "There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat."

Is it just me or is this pretty clear that Israel are already undertaking direct action?

They might not need airstrikes if they have effective ways of achieving their objectives on the ground within Iran.

Makes me think of the film "Munich".

air pig

30th Nov 2011, 21:39

This reminds me of the sudden destruction of a building in Syria sometime ago, reputedly involved in WMD of some form. One day it was there, next day it was gone. Nobody claimed any responsibility, area covered with soil and sand in very short order.

Whose to say same people are not responsible, and I don't mean the Syrians?

Regards

Air pig

EGGP

30th Nov 2011, 21:42

One wonders why the USA has spent some $169 million on producing only 8 of these enormous "bunker busting - to 200 metre underground" bombs.

Could it perchance be that they are going to be given to Israel to use in the next few weeks on Iranian nuclear facilities?

Could it be to deal with those hidden chinese submarine bases I recall seeing photos of last year?????

or is this too obvious?

HTB

1st Dec 2011, 07:45

WW

I heard Sir Willard White (different sp to protect the innocent?) being interviewed on the radio a week or so ago - I think about his participoation on Desert Island Discs. He sounds like a big black man (actually, he is - a bass-baritone opera singer); is this your alter ego, and if so did you know SAM from a previous encounter...?

I too am confused about SAM boy's service history - he hinted that he was army (the green beret connection); has said he was on a Bloodhound squadron in Germany (when they had relocated to UK); served at Bruggen and Laarbruch (the latter where I was stationed from early 1984 for 8 years and have no recollection of anyone fitting his profile); at Laarbruch one his ROs was the Staish (unusual, normally flt cdr and sqn/wg cdr get to deliver the home truths)...bovvered? Nah; just curious.

500N

Definitely 15 December for this 15 ton Big BLU to be air delivered by Israel or US (I think your money is safe, and he doesn't seem willing to take mine:{).

And he didn't reveal his source of intel for SSBN location.

Mister B

500N

1st Dec 2011, 08:56

HTB

It was me who has the Green Beret connection - that is unless you are referring to his come back comment about "Brown" something or other - which I did not understand so if someone could explain what he meant, that would be good.
Unless he meant he was "Sandy beret" but I very much doubt it.

You never know, maybe SAM was the 2nd person on the first floor Balcony ?:O

Yes, I think you are right but at least a charity will benefit one way or the other.

SAM
Not sure how they did it in the RAF but I would have loved to have listened in on an Orders Group of yours (if you ever gave any that is). I reckon your plan of attack would have been like going in circles you change direction / thoughts so many times.

.

HTB

1st Dec 2011, 09:35

500N

Yes, I think that reference was confusing me, which I then conflated with your green beret reference. Still can't piece together his RAFG time, which is probably no bad thing, as I might not have been his bestest pal at Laarbruch.

Seems his lack of interweb connection is keeping him mute at the moment, or did he say he had a poxy connection? Maybe he's being......interviewd about his secret knowledge of multi-national SSBN activities. I suspect, though, that his medication might have finally kicked in and he's lying down in a comfortable darkened room listening to distant soothing voices...:E

Mister B

barnstormer1968

1st Dec 2011, 10:48

Willard check your PM's:ok:

cornish-stormrider

1st Dec 2011, 11:25

Sam is not a Walt, he is, IMHO, the Uber Walt.

I am assuming we will be seeing this plot in the next Tom Clancy novel - he has just been using us as the focus group to tidy up any plot ends.

Question for Sam - why does your "time" in a blue ish suit not gel at all with the facts of this world. I can accept the odd recollection being a bit vague on dates but if ast the saying goes "it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck then it is probably not a fish in a duck suit" and your statements about who where when just don't ring true.

I mean, come on Sam, if you did all you said and been all you have been then you should be able to tell us a bit more than wikkidpeenoya - without breaking the OS, opsec or decent practice....

Or are you going to tell us all about where the "undisclosed" vaults are?
OOh look, a black car, a skoda you say, handcuffs and a black bag you say.

HTB

1st Dec 2011, 11:30

SAM

I was neither a met man nor civil service; I know wg cdr Wilby, but not by the sobriquet that you use (and you've been told before about naming names and uncomplimentary observations and comments, so desist:=).

My allegiance and friendship was with the squadrons on which I served, and to the other operational squadrons - including the Rocks - so it is unlikely that I would have noticed you as you were a lowly ops officer. Anyway, I didn't mix with naughty boys socially and had very few reasons to go anywhere near ops wg.

Mister B

500N

1st Dec 2011, 13:18

cornish-stormrider

Agree. If you have served in any branch of the military, certain dates and activities (exercises), people and events that occur as part of a unit always stick in your mind and and I would have thought even more so as an Officer.

Entry to Course, Graduation, Promotion. After all, your commission certificate has a date on it so surely he can't get the start date wrong !!! LOL

HTB
PM sent

Mach Two

1st Dec 2011, 13:33

Sam. Go back to post #72, read what people have said to you, think about it and address the points.

HTB

1st Dec 2011, 14:03

500N

Check PM

Mister B

Jonny Suave Trousers

1st Dec 2011, 14:57

Why not just let him go rather than outing him. There seems to be one or two people that seem quite keen on getting itel on him!

cornish-stormrider

1st Dec 2011, 16:51

Walt hunting, the new sport.

Our brown colleagues over at Arrse are going to submit a team for 2016, the sport failed to make the cut for the 2012 running and jockstrapping club.

Anyone who has actually dealt with "shapes", "devices" or suchlike knows they don't brag about it - ever, especially to a gob****e liney (like me) they met once on the t'interweb.

The little that I saw - I forgetted, just as I was ordered to...... (unless I am walting a little and its a bluff that I ever saw Anything)
If I can surmise - Sam has a tinfoil armadillo hat, has bragged about where when and who etc, been called on it, not satisfied the burden of proof etc etc.

Oh and he has a theory that "someone, (USA, Israel, UK, someone else)" is going to make a part of Iran into a big hole in the ground - whether or not there is a bucket, sunshine, full of, small, involved is gossipy.

I throw my hat into the ring too - if Iran suffers a smacking this side of 1/1/2012 I will donate a chunky to charideee, if not I call Sam to put up.

Courtney Mil

1st Dec 2011, 17:33

Interesting comentary on Iran here:

George Grant: John Baron MP has got it wrong on Iran Comment (http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2011/12/george-grant-john-baron-mp-has-got-it-wrong-on-iran.html#comment-6a00d83451b31c69e20162fd2f7619970d)

Mach Two

1st Dec 2011, 17:59

Interesting article and some good points made, Courtney.

Former Mosad cheif Meir Dagan has bee speaking and although he's been denounced, he raised exactly the point I offered to SAM earlier - although I doubt he's read it. See:

Former Mossad chief: Israeli strike on Iran will lead to regional war - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/former-mossad-chief-israeli-strike-on-iran-will-lead-to-regional-war-1.398537)

Willard Whyte

1st Dec 2011, 18:54

If Israel sees regional war as the only alternative to getting nuked, then I think it likely Israel would chose regional war.

Mach Two

1st Dec 2011, 19:00

Yep, good point. But without access to their intel and knowing what alternative action they may have considered, it's hard to tell. See earlier post about the effect of a single (very big) nuke.

500N

1st Dec 2011, 19:04

Agree.

If it means Iran's facilities are taken out, I think they would look at it as a small price to pay in view of the potential bigger price to pay.

Mach Two

1st Dec 2011, 19:12

I think you're right. So where's SAM in all this?

HTB

1st Dec 2011, 21:01

M2

As he admitted earlier, he's had to access this site using a poxy server (I had one of them once at a sqn dining in night), maybe that's slowing down his thought processes. I'm off for the weekend, out of range of webby things - so await developments; by the time I get back, there will be ten days to armagedopalypse, or whatever the outcome of SAM's dream is.

Mister B

edit for spolling irror

Mach Two

1st Dec 2011, 21:43

I'm with you there, Mr B.

jamesdevice

1st Dec 2011, 23:45

I don't think these have been linked to before:
before and after commercial satellite images of the Iranian site which blew up on 12th November
Satellite Images Show Devastation at Iran Missile Base After Blast (http://www.payvand.com/news/11/dec/1011.html)

Looks like a chemical plant explosion to me - like when a nitration plant goes up
Nitration plant for making rocket fuel?

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 00:02

The problem as I see it with those images is the rubble has been cleaned up a bit which takes away some of the information that would have been available as to blast direction, power etc.

I haven't had time to look closely but has anyone had time to work out the centre of the blast - if it was located in the photo and not off to one side.

Edit
My quick guesstimate is that the centre of the blast, based on angle of damage was the Square, dark blue roofed building, top left of the compound. Also based on the fact that not much left of it, however as the debris has been cleaned up a bit this may be misguided.

I also can't see any hole in the ground, which even a ground detonated explosion should have left some sort of crater. Would love to see a more detailed satellite photo.

Anyone else care to comment ?

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 00:42

shy talk

"That place looks like it has been bombed."

Why do you say that ? Can you explain further.

Looks to me like a massive blast ground based blast centred where I said before that completely blew away some buildings and damaged those ends of buildings that were facing the blast.

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 00:59

shy talk

So you disagree that the images show the buildings damaged more at one end than the other ?

Why no craters ? Air burst bombs ?

Why is one building comletely gone but the others just damaged ?

Some more clues please.

A big explosion, flimsy buildings, the blast radius is pretty big.

What do you think the distances are between the buildings ? Using the original photo for reference points.

Willard Whyte

2nd Dec 2011, 07:58

There are, what look to be, articulated lorries near the buildings on the right. They must be about 40' long.

There are scorch marks around where the middle of the 3 buildings on the left are, or rather were, possibly where the event happened.

Blast radius can be a moot point, but certainly significant damage occurred out to ~300'.

Dunno how that translates into quantities (and types) of rocket fuel. Or TNT!

Can't use YouTube at work but there are plenty of launch pad explosions to gauge the rocket fuel aspect.

jamesdevice

2nd Dec 2011, 07:59

looks to me like an explosion in or around that snaller grey roofed building just left of centre - just below the blue building mentioned by 500N

Furthermore when a chemical plant goes off, typically you won't get a crater: they have reinforced thick concrete floors and typically the explosion pressure pulse simply bounces off the concrete, and takes the least line of resistance - walls and roof.

Only questions here is - was it an accident, or was it caused deliberately?

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 08:53

jamesdevice
"looks to me like an explosion in or around that snaller grey roofed building just left of centre - just below the blue building mentioned by 500N"

I think you might be correct, the scorch / burn marks are darker here and typical of what you could get.

If it was rocket fuel for a Missile a la chemical, agree, re no crater.

From my experience, even small explosions of TNT, C4, AMFO detonated on the ground leave small craters unless tamped, which least me to the next point.

The blast radius / shock wave would be large enough and powerful enough to knock buildings around (and obviously nearly flatten those close by), especially if there was nothing to contain it, slow it down, direct it upwards etc etc and there doesn't seem to be anything to do that.

Just my HO.

Here is a good normal and slow motion video of the Rocket Fuel fire and explosion in the US showing very good shock waves. I don't think the Iran one was nearly as big but the shock wave would have been the same.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN_iwWzQo1M&feature=related

jamesdevice

2nd Dec 2011, 09:24

and thats the curious thing. On an explosives / rocket fuel manufacturing site you would expect some kind of earth bund / berm between buildings, and also a much greater separation of the buildings. Which leads to four possible conclusions
1) the risks were not understood (unlikely
2) the risks were ignored - the plant / people were expendable (possible)
3) there was originally no risk and this is a plant subverted from its original task
4) someone created a risk where there wasn't one by placing an explosive....

Its interesting that all the purported film of this event on the web shows only a large column of WHITE smoke, suggesting there was either little fire - or the fire was quickly put out. Which suggests little lying around in the way of flammables. Which makes me think, was this a vapour explosion with everything burnt off in one flash? Leaking gas tanks / fuel lines? Yet theres nothing obviously visible of that type. Exploding tanker? Anyone know how the Iranians fuel their rockets? Hydrazine?

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 09:39

James

I wouldn't think you need an explosive to set off Rocket fuel like you need one for ANFO or C4 etc etc.

I'm sure their were plenty of volatile things in the factory - which proved correct !!!

You've always got static electricity as an accidental source ?

I would say the site relates to your " 3) there was originally no risk and this is a plant subverted from its original task".

Re the Berm, on other "bigger" pictures of the Iran site it does look like their is a wall or something around the whole area but quite some way out.

Even a small, angled earth berm around a building will direct the majority of the shock wave upwards. As long as whatever it is, especially earth, impede the shock wave, it will stay intact. ie the Old Bomb Explosive bunkers of yesteryear that had the earth berms around them.

cornish-stormrider

2nd Dec 2011, 09:50

Agreed look at the devastation caused at the buncefield fire - no explosives there but probably felt like being hit by a sqn of BUFF's fully loaded for a Rolling Thunder or Arc Light.

I know I'd not want to be there - as to the explosion in MadDinnerJackets house of rocketry (allegedly) it seems to point to a big fuel explosion - does not need to be much of a source.

Oh, yeah, my terms for the bet. If MSM picks up that Iran gets bombed before 1/1/12 0001 hrs. I will put £50 into the Royal British Legion - if not I call Sam XXV as a lying walt and expect him to put £50 into a forces charity.

Any takers.......? or is Sam's ego and imagination writing cheques his body can't cash?

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 10:02

Cornish
"Oh, yeah, my terms for the bet. If MSM picks up that Iran gets bombed before 1/1/12 0001 hrs. I will put £50 into the Royal British Legion - if not I call Sam XXV as a lying walt and expect him to put £50 into a forces charity."

"Any takers.......? or is Sam's ego and imagination writing cheques his body can't cash?"

Sam's ego - yes, well, in view of what it took (as in what I wrote) to get him to bite on my bet / challenge, he obviously has one. I don't think he would have liked what else I had to write if he hadn't have responded but it certainly would have made him bite.

I'd suggest we win my bet first and make sure he pays that first because I have a sneaking suspicion he might try to wriggle out of the whole thing - in which case I would hope that the PPRuNe Mods get rid of him.
.

jamesdevice

2nd Dec 2011, 10:23

Sam
no-one is going to fill a large missile with liquid fuel and then move it
a) not safe
b) missile would be able to handle the stresses - skin would rupture

Unless you are suggesting that they were doing a test fuel / defuel, but then
1) why do it indoors ? (damned unsafe)
2) that building does not look tall enough

PS theres a heck of a difference between a Bloodhound and a ballistic missile

Mach Two

2nd Dec 2011, 10:31

Very interesting, SAM, and I think we're in your area here. The only bit I don't get is if this was a maintenance depot and not a launch site (as it clearly wasn't) why would the be fuelling/defuelling? Testing? Maybe they just don't care how dangerous that is. They're only conscripts.

The article says "Iran was apparently performing a volatile procedure involving a missile engine at the site when the blast occurred."

Willard Whyte

2nd Dec 2011, 10:34

Anyone know how the Iranians fuel their rockets? Hydrazine?

Possibly. Chinese space launchers have exhibited a distinctivly coloured smoke plume, similar to that of the hydrazine fuelled Titan ICBM. There appears to have been a fair amount of tech transfer from PRC to Iran - indirectly via Pakistan and/or NK.

Anyway, I guess they could have been 'mucking about' with hypergolic fuel, so no ignition source needed.

They might have chosen to do it indoors at an 'innocent' looking industrial site so sats couldn't get a look at what was going on.

cazatou

2nd Dec 2011, 11:37

Looks like all Bets are OFF.

PS. He has obviously never experienced a Gulf thunderstorm!

Mach Two

2nd Dec 2011, 12:36

I sometimes find this thread hard to follow!

Interesting to go onto Google Earth. About 32.2 miles west of Tehran (261° from the red star that marks Tehran) you will find the Bid Kaneh compound. Good detail on this picture. Now follow the road to the south and you'll find some very interesting stuff in the desert. Fairly obvious what most of it is.

To the east of the compound you'll see a road that disappear into the hillside. Plenty of earth covered shelters. No obvious launch site.

Mach Two

2nd Dec 2011, 12:38

Oh, yes. Earth berms could be launch sites, but no permanent structure.

jamesdevice

2nd Dec 2011, 13:09

SAM
You don't need to lecture to me about the dangers of rocket fuels - I've had to handle in anger anhydrous hydrazine, dimethylhydrazine, hydrogen (and other) peroxides and a range of other nastys. For chemical - not rocketry - use, but the hazards are the same. I still have scars on my hands from Sodium peroxide igniting the safety gloves I was wearing

I (and I think we all) know a liquid fuelled rocket is not instantly deployable because of the dangers inherent in the fuel and design. Thats why I said what I did, and why I beleive your comment about fuelling / defuelling inside that shed is nonsense. OK you could do a trial run in there, but the shed looks too low to hold an erect missile and platform. You wouldn't want to fuel it while lying down - the side walls of the rocket would fracture under the weight
I rather think that you've misunderstood - possibly deliberately - what I said.

cornish-stormrider

2nd Dec 2011, 13:55

Apparently I "was" an artificer on the flying Pie oven ( with the greatest and humblest of respect to crew 3 - up the Duck! )

Bwah hah hah, Little does he know about the little that I know - if he knew what I know I'd know a little - I think....

does anyone remember a rank in the RAF engineers of Artificer? Alas I never came across it. Don't zobbin cadets get taught rank structure at Cranditz?? I bet even a senile old fart Like Beagle could remember us Oik's ranks.....

Beags - If I don't insult you again a'fore Christmas may I wish you and yours all the blessings of the season.

Fly safe
CS.

And Byeeeee Sam

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 14:15

cazatou Looks like all Bets are OFF.
BS. Not as far as I am concerned.

SAM
"I'll bow out now & ask the Mods to remove my ability, please, to post again.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif"

You don't get out of it that easily unless you just want to confirm my (and probably others) suspicions in terms of wriggling out of it.

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 14:22

SAM

You say "These missiles are extremely unstable due to liquid propellant (I wouldn't go within 1000 metres of one..). They are operated by conscripts under duress, who probably haven't a clue what they are doing."

I was always under the impression that the Revolutionary Guard operated an autonomous missile command and the Revolutionary Guard were not a bunch of conscripts ?

I also find it hard to believe they would stick conscripts in charge of missiles or anything to do with them.

Ungrounded earth cable ? Very specific, too specific but it does follow on from my Static electricity comment.

cornish-stormrider

2nd Dec 2011, 17:03

I tort I saw a puddy tat, and also that Sam was going.
Attention seeking walting troll - not that I am calling him this you understand, just what I think of him.
it's a bit late to talk about closing the thread when you are the one who posted all the naughty gen (what you think you know of it) and then accusing the rest of us of breaking OS, opsec etc.

Next you will be opening a thread about mach 7 planes or rail guns or some such....

ta ta
CS

Lonewolf_50

2nd Dec 2011, 18:40

500N points out that SAM said ...
"These missiles are extremely unstable due to liquid propellant (I wouldn't go within 1000 metres of one..). They are operated by conscripts under duress, who probably haven't a clue what they are doing."
That he did, which got me chortling.
I was always under the impression that the Revolutionary Guard operated an autonomous missile command and the Revolutionary Guard were not a bunch of conscripts ?
As was I. Perhaps my intel needs updating, or perhaps "someone"
ought to look more deeply into who does what in Iran's various military organizations.
I also find it hard to believe they would stick conscripts in charge of missiles or anything to do with them.
The Iranians may be "the enemy" for the time being, but they ain't idiots.

Even in professional and generally competent military organizations, cock ups are not that rare. A few years back, the USAF had an incident where incorrectly safed nuc weapons were flown from pt A to pt B, in violation of any number of regs and safeguards. That got a few people fired, a whole lot of press coverage and egg on USAF faces, and a review of "just how we are supposed to handle these very dangerous things" done to find out how to prevent such a cock up.

Our counterparts in the Iranian Armed Forces, be they regular or Rev Guard, are human, and will be as susceptible to various cock ups as anyone, if not moreso in some of the less professional formations.

For all: been very intrigued by the Damage Assessments offered up in the last few pages, tip of the cap to you all. :ok: Good food for thought.

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 18:52

Lone wolf

"They may be an enemy, but they ain't idiots."

Yep, and just like Israel, I wouldn't under estimate them. They are prone to have the balls to do things, just like Saddam.

On that subject, Iran seems to have a big disparity between the "conscript type" front line troops used as Inf in the wars ie versus Iraq) and the Revolutionary Guards and what they do / control.

Am I mistaken or are their similarities between SAM on this thread and TOURIST on the SARH thread ?

Cornish, JUST FOR YOU THIS CHRISTMAS :O
I Twaut I Taw a Puddy Tat !
I Twaut I Taw a Puddy Tat! - YouTube

Tourist

2nd Dec 2011, 19:07

Since I was the first to make a bet with SAM that he was full of it, that would make things really confused.....

Lonewolf_50

2nd Dec 2011, 19:08

I've given the SARH thread a miss.

Perhaps I ought to sample it . :cool:

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 19:14

Tourist,
I meant the gist of it and the fact you and someone else are disagreeing along similar lines. I know SFA about SAR, only ever jumped out of helos on a rope so can't comment on the tech side of things.

Lonewolf
Only go in to it occasionally and just did and that's when I saw the similarity.

.

skydiver69

2nd Dec 2011, 20:00

My brother in law spent 2 years as a conscript in the Iranian army and got a) raging ****s from the insanitary conditions in his training camp, b) two changes of clothes per week, c) a tedious 18 posting doing a boring, undemanding admin job in an office (bearing in mind that he had a good engineering degree pre conscription). Most conscripts seem to receive enough training to make themselves suitable to be cannon fodder and once their basic training is over they end up working in offices or guarding museums. I doubt whether the Republican Guard are quite as badly treated or trained though.

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 20:15

Lonewolf
"Even in professional and generally competent military organizations, cock ups are not that rare. A few years back, the USAF had an incident where incorrectly safed nuc weapons were flown from pt A to pt B, in violation of any number of regs and safeguards. That got a few people fired, a whole lot of press coverage and egg on USAF faces, and a review of "just how we are supposed to handle these very dangerous things" done to find out how to prevent such type of dog up."

Some very interesting reports exist for that incident and the follow up, it was more than a "few" that got fired - I think close to 70 people. I think (from memory), even some of the higher ups sent in to clean up the situation got fired as well a short time later for lack of performance in cleaning up the mess.

Lonewolf_50

2nd Dec 2011, 20:46

Heads needed to roll, and I'm glad more than a few did.

That's the sort of cock up that the system is designed to prevent.

500N

2nd Dec 2011, 23:17

Re damage assessment, I have now found what I was looking for.

Here is an article where you can download or open a high res photo in Google earth and then look at the photo from near ground level. It is not a true 3D but allows closer inspection of the damage.

Iran missile base post-explosion imagery, now hi-res in Google Earth | Ogle Earth (http://ogleearth.com/2011/11/iran-missile-base-post-explosion-imagery-now-hi-res-in-google-earth/)

The file is under this bit of text in the article
Here is the resulting KMZ file

Once in google earth, it is evident
1. Some sides of the base, a bit away from the buildings have an earthen berm around as you can see the scrape marks from the bulldozer.
2. You can still see the scorch marks on the earth. I think the explosion was slightly / 1 building down from my original estimate.
3. Those long rectangular items, trucks or the back end of the trucks for carrying missiles, either in a container or on the back in a launcher.
4. Those long blue buildings, certainly long enough to contain a rocket / missile plus room to take the warhead apart - which is what they were said to be doing in one article.

5. The important one. Even though it is not a true 3D image, luckily the photo was taken with the sun at quite a low angle so you can get an idea via the shadows of the building how much of it is standing and to an extent how intact it is (by how sharp the shadow line is).

Some of the shadows of the buildings show that the roof structures of them are a tangled mess of metal.

Other buildings, such as the one's we all think were at the centre of the explosion create no shadow and so I think no structure to them has been left standing - OR they were bulldozed immediately.

The explosion was heard 25kms away. The White smoke certainly went high enough.

Your thoughts ?

jamesdevice

2nd Dec 2011, 23:39

looking at the scorching I'd say you have THREE heat sources there
Two buildings, both below the blue one you initially said, but also one on the northeast side of that missing blue building - the road there is scorched / cratered
Secondary explosion from a vehicle?

What I do find interesting is the structure in the desert to the southeast, but still within the outer compound security fence
That looks like a filled in impact crater to me. A big one. Might just be a dry water hole, but that doesn't look right. Unfortunately its outside the high-res imagery. But whatever it is, its over 100 yards across

PS best way to scale things is from that green hockey pitch top centre (thats real hockey not the icey stuff)

500N

3rd Dec 2011, 01:40

The clean up they have done makes it very hard to see IMHO.

" the road there is scorched / cratered Secondary explosion from a vehicle?"
Agree, I think something was on the road that instantaneously combusted and burnt to the ground.

"What I do find interesting is the structure in the desert to the southeast, but still within the outer compound security fence
That looks like a filled in impact crater to me. A big one. Might just be a dry water hole, but that doesn't look right. Unfortunately its outside the high-res imagery. But whatever it is, its over 100 yards across"

I hope I am looking at the same thing as you.

The google earth image I gave you has a scale on it so we can now work out the Exact sizes of things.

I diagree with what it is. I don't think it is a dry water hole, I look at those often here in Aus, it has too much of a earthen berm around one side.

I think it is man made, it looks like a semi circular earthen berm has been made as you can see the scape marks on BOTH sides of the ridge. It has height to it (the berm). Have a look at the scrape marks of the berm round the outside of the facility, you can see the same scrape marks.

Their is also another one in an inverted L shape just below it.

Here is something else interesting to look at North North West of the compound.

Their is a OLD square earthen shape but inside this and off to the east it looks like Bomb Craters. Also some other interesting craters to the NW of it and a line of something to the South of the square earthen shape. I'll defer here to the RAF boys - are these bomb craters ?

EdVFX

3rd Dec 2011, 09:43

SSW of the main compound is a large earth covered structure, to the south of which would appear to be a row of static engine test beds with blast or eflux marks on the ground.

You hardly need to be a rocket scientist to work out what was going on at this site!

Willard Whyte

3rd Dec 2011, 09:43

"What I do find interesting is the structure in the desert to the southeast, but still within the outer compound security fence
That looks like a filled in impact crater to me. A big one. Might just be a dry water hole, but that doesn't look right. Unfortunately its outside the high-res imagery. But whatever it is, its over 100 yards across"

I hope I am looking at the same thing as you.

The google earth image I gave you has a scale on it so we can now work out the Exact sizes of things.

I diagree with what it is. I don't think it is a dry water hole, I look at those often here in Aus, it has too much of a earthen berm around one side.

I think it is man made, it looks like a semi circular earthen berm has been made as you can see the scape marks on BOTH sides of the ridge. It has height to it (the berm). Have a look at the scrape marks of the berm round the outside of the facility, you can see the same scrape marks.Small arms weapons range? Small burning area?

Their is a OLD square earthen shape but inside this and off to the east it looks like Bomb Craters. Also some other interesting craters to the NW of it and a line of something to the South of the square earthen shape. I'll defer here to the RAF boys - are these bomb craters ? They look like craters, and the straight line in which they appear would help indicate as such too.

I think perhaps the whole larger area is something of a test area.

Interesting parallel lines just outside of the berm to the south, about 20' apart.

There's another 'facility' a couple of miles due north, and what could be a military HQ (with a 200'x250' parade ground? - it also generally looks very spick & span so maybe Revolutionary Guard) 2 miles due east.

The built up area 4.75 miles 325 degrees from the explosion looks very orderly too, and far bigger than the villages around it.

500N

3rd Dec 2011, 10:25

Willard
Good pick ups, hadn't looked out that far, Agree with what they are.

Ed
Agree.

It will be interesting to see what, if anything comes out in the future.

.

TEEEJ

3rd Dec 2011, 11:43

500N wrote

Here is something else interesting to look at North North West of the compound.

Their is a OLD square earthen shape but inside this and off to the east it looks like Bomb Craters. Also some other interesting craters to the NW of it and a line of something to the South of the square earthen shape. I'll defer here to the RAF boys - are these bomb craters ?

The bomb craters could also have been from the Iran-Iraq war? The earthen square looks quite old. The Iraqi's used Tu-22 Blinder and Tu-16 Badgers on strikes deep inside Iran. Possibly radar bombing against the target?

500N

3rd Dec 2011, 11:58

TEEEJ
Interesting point. I agree everything looks quite old.

Tourist

3rd Dec 2011, 17:40

I love how we can get to bomb craters via a little untrained photo analysis:D

Those are holes dug down for the irrigation system unless I am very much mistaken. You see them all over Afghanistan as you fly around.

I am willing to be proved wrong as I am also totally untrained in photo analysis, but I bet they are "karez" holes

APG63

3rd Dec 2011, 17:47

Certainly is a test area, but for rocket motors rather than warheads. The holes in a line are, as Tourist says, water holes - note the ones that have caved in north of the site. But also look at the blast marks from tied-down rocket motors in the site to the south of the site.

This is rocket city, not warhead testing.

That said, the last page or two has seen some really good analays. Well done you guys. Keep it coming. :ok:

500N

3rd Dec 2011, 19:33

Tourist,

Thank you - knowledge of LOCAL customs and structures is an enormous help
and that's what was missing in making a correct analysis. To me they looked like the holes I've blown in the ground using ANFO hence my question of "are they bomb craters" as I couldn't see them being that.

I did a quick look up of Karez holes. A couple of nice pictures here that to the untrained eye is deceiving.
Hitch on Heroin, and Other Perspectives (http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/10/08/hitch-on-heroin-and-other-perspectives/)
Karez water system in the Turpan Depression in China - 42-24355457 - Rights Managed - Stock Photo - Corbis (http://www.corbisimages.com/stock-photo/rights-managed/42-24355457/karez-water-system-in-the-turpan-depression)

I think most of us are "untrained in photo analysis" unless someone here used to do it in the RAF and is willing to chime in. I only ever looked at structures in aerial photos before it was "exercise raided".

Edit

Tourist
By the way, "bet" is a dangerous word to use around here:O

Tourist

3rd Dec 2011, 22:03

As you will see from post 4 (though actually #2 due to tPprune temporal shiftage) of this thread, I have no concerns about betting.
The trick, I always find, is to be correct.:)

500N

4th Dec 2011, 02:30

Tourist,
My apologise, I had forgotten it was you who originally called out SAM
and I followed your lead. Only 11 more days to go.
.

bcgallacher

4th Dec 2011, 14:01

The holes in line are probably what are known as quanats in Iran - a system of culverts with a hole to the surface at regular intervals.There are many of these in the Karaj area - I used to fly r/c models near Karaj in the 1970's

Tourist

4th Dec 2011, 14:05

New development:

Breaking News - Iran: US Drone Shot Down in East, State TV Reports | World News | Sky News (http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16123537)

I bet SAM will tell us that it was actually a B2

ORAC

4th Dec 2011, 15:00

Iran TV: US Spy Drone Shot Down By Military (http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16123537)

http://www.defenceaviation.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/rq-160.jpg

Iran's military has shot down an unmanned US aircraft over the east of the country, state TV has reported.

"Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_RQ-170_Sentinel) American drone in eastern Iran," Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted an unnamed military source as saying. A report on English-language Press TV said the drone was "downed with minimum damage" and seized by Iranian officials close to the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The RQ-170 Sentinel is an unmanned stealth aircraft used for reconnaissance. It is not designed to carry weapons.

The semi-official Fars news agency, which is believed to be close to the Revolutionary Guard military force, said Iran would respond to the violation of its airspace with actions beyond its own borders..........

jamesdevice

4th Dec 2011, 15:11

bit of a windfall for the Chinese then
I assume the technology transfer works both ways...

Mach Two

4th Dec 2011, 17:19

Ooh. "Outside their borders". Get SAM back here pronto. I wonder where that will be?

TEEEJ

4th Dec 2011, 17:21

The image that the Iranian news agency is using is a Dassault AVE drone.

http://www.defenceaviation.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/rq-160.jpg

http://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/aviation/press/press-kits/2008/first-fully-autonomous-flight-for-ave-drone.html?L=1

Dassault image link

http://www.dassault-aviation.com/fileadmin/user_upload/redacteur/presse/AVE/AVEC_3163r.JPG

RQ-170 Sentinel

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/3474/bigbeast.jpg

http://defenseindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/RQ-170_41.jpg

http://defenseindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/rq-170_kandahar_taxi1.jpg

Mach Two

4th Dec 2011, 17:40

Well spotted, Dude. I have to admit, I didn't even look at the pictures. Must pay more attention to detail. Hang on, my flight commander used to say that to me years ago. Should have listened.

So, do you think they're making it all up as they go along?

jamesdevice

4th Dec 2011, 17:53

Its probably just a mistake by a sub-editor on the news report
Tehran Times is now also reporting it, but with a correct (stock) photo
Iran shoots down U.S. spy drone: reports - Tehran Times (http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/93221-iran-shoots-down-us-spy-drone-reports)

They add the comment
"The cyber warfare unit managed to take over controls of the drone and bring it down, a military official said, according to the TV."
Notice they are being very careful to indirectly quote the military and so hedge around the issue of truth

TEEEJ

4th Dec 2011, 18:08

Mach Two wrote

So, do you think they're making it all up as they go along?

ISAF says drone lost over Afghanistan late last week

(Reuters) - A surveillance drone flying over western Afghanistan had gone out of control late last week and may be the one Iran said it had shot down over its own airspace, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said on Sunday.

"The UAV to which the Iranians are referring may be a U.S. unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week. The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status," an ISAF statement said.

The statement about the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was issued in Kabul and released to reporters covering an international conference on Afghanistan in the German city Bonn.

ISAF says drone lost over Afghanistan late last week | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/04/us-iran-usa-drone-idUSTRE7B30CQ20111204)

Tourist

4th Dec 2011, 18:21

I can't imagine how a US spy-plane could have strayed over the border into Iran........

jamesdevice

4th Dec 2011, 18:32

Tourist

The Iranians think they know... see my last post

Tourist

4th Dec 2011, 18:42

I was being sarcastic.

Does anyone here really believe that the US needs to use a stealth UAV over Afghanistan, or that the Irani's have the capability to take charge of one of those little kids toy helicopters let alone a spangly new stealth toy?

I'm guessing (betting:E) engine failure or loss of datalink.

Mach Two

4th Dec 2011, 21:05

Thanks, Teeej.

I read that too. My question really is, is it press, political prancing, something that really happened or posturing? I guess without access to the real int, in't hard to tell. Yeas, it looks like something has been shot down. No surprises from anyonone that thet MAY have been UAVs flying there - I would hope they would be. I'd like to hear more on this one. Not one to jump to conclusions too quickly. Or speculate too much in public just yet.

On the other hand, what the hell am I doing here. Fair cop. Shoot me!! :rolleyes:

HTB

5th Dec 2011, 10:14

The remainder of today, then 10 days until SAM's deadline (oops, poor choice of word). I'm a bit worried about his absence from the discussion - perhaps he really has been taken into custody for questioning about his inside knowledge of military and geo-political sensitive areas...

I think the latest development is yet another example of Iranian paranoia/schizophrenia and how they want to be seen by their neighbours - as on the ball, high-tech, no nonsense hard liners, some of whom wouldn't mind having a a dash of the capitalist, secular western values that (almost) were once the norm in their country (setting aside the brutally repressive dictatorship that enabled it to be so).

As for the damage, I don't think it was inflicted by air delivered bombing, far too neat a pattern. More likely an unfortunate accident, or deliberate self destruction to stir the intel plot.

Mister B

Tourist

5th Dec 2011, 10:42

SAM

:rolleyes:

Why, and I ask with a due sense of dread, would it have hit at a minimum of 120mph due to the height at which it flew?

Willard Whyte

5th Dec 2011, 10:47

It wouldn't be the first time a 'plane has 'landed' without anyone at the controls - whether on-board or remote.

F-106 Delta Dart - 58-0787 Pilotless Landing (http://www.f-106deltadart.com/71fis_PilotlessLanding_580787.htm)

(I accept that the '170 probably has a somewhat more unstable design than a Delta Dart.)

Mach Two

5th Dec 2011, 10:58

Tourist,

Presumably because terminal velocity for a non-streamlined human body is 55 ms-1 (or 120 mph). So it must be the same for everything. Oh, no it’s not!

Tourist

5th Dec 2011, 12:39

That was, with mounting horror, kind of what I was concerned SAM was about to suggest.

"gravitational V2":ooh:

500N

5th Dec 2011, 12:46

Tourist,

Could be another chance for a bet :O
(Although 5 pages of sam explaining himself might kill off the thread).

Lonewolf_50

5th Dec 2011, 15:07

The next immediate threat to the UK is Germany, yet again. And the several MILLION Islamic idiots that the sucessive governments have allowed in in the last 40 years.
Uh .... what?

We are in S**T street, because of inifectual & a pratt of a prime minister (cameron) who realise's that in his lifetime (& bu**er anybody elses) he will bcome a god.....http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/puppy_dog_eyes.gif
I will estimate an episode of posting while tipping a few ale bottles. :cool:

EdVFX

5th Dec 2011, 16:23

'Yes, I believe Tehran downed this US drone, through jamming.'

Really? And yet in the same post you state that the drone is designed to return to base if jammed.

'The HDD carries simple functions & complex navigational data. It also has "failsafe" data that should enable the UAV - if "interfered with" to abort it's mission & fly back to it's launch point'

Not very consistent are you.

Canadian Break

5th Dec 2011, 16:50

Sam, I realise that most of the time you are discussing the space time continuum with Stephen Hawking, with the odd spare minutes casting pearls our way but...do you think you could PM me with the 6 winning numbers for Saturday's lottery old chap?CB

Tourist

5th Dec 2011, 17:31

SAM

"Terminal velocity of any solid object such as a ball bearing or cannon ball (or a human body) dropped from more than approx 500ft is around 120 mph."

My worst fears are realised.

I honestly don't know where to begin.

Somebody.
Anybody?

Nobody say the "R" word...

Mach Two

5th Dec 2011, 18:04

Tourist, you may say it.

Right. From my schoolboys book of basic physics, Terminal velocity is derived from the square root of 2 x the object's mass x g (nearly 10 m/s/s) all divided by the density of the fluid (air) x the presented area of the object times the drag coefficent.

In the case of a human body, a canonball and a broken remote control aircraft, a lot of those funtions remain the same. So you tell me if a canonball with a big mass compared to its presented area will fall faster, slower or at the same speed as a human body. And then extend that argument to the RC aeroplane.

Do the maths. You'll find there is a big difference.

Mach Two

5th Dec 2011, 18:35

...and as long as the altitude from which this body started its freefall is sufficient for it to reach Vt (a few hundred feet, but can't be bothered to work it out now), anything extra is meaningless. In fact, once it's reached Vt, it will start to slow down again as it enters denser air - increased drag and greater buoyancy. Simples!

Does that help you out, Tourist? You did know where to start, but sometimes it's just too much trouble, isn't it.

Willard Whyte

5th Dec 2011, 18:40

Why didn't the sycamore seed that hit me on the bonce the other day leave me reeling in pain? Surely even such a small object would cause harm at such a tremendous velocity?

Mach Two

5th Dec 2011, 18:57

At 120 mph, WW, it probably would. But then it has one wing attached to it, so there are some aerodynamics involved too. Which I know was your point and thank you for feeding me the line.

The drone, if that's waht it was and if it was shot down may also have been in a sycamore seed configuration and, therefore able to land on an Iranian cranium without causing so much as a bump.

henra

5th Dec 2011, 21:19

The next immediate threat to the UK is Germany, yet again.

I don't know what exactly it is that you are smoking but may I carefully suggest to reduce the dose ?! :E

On a more serious note:

Re terminal velocity:
If we take a cannonball we have a Force resulting from gravity which is
m x g which gives a gravtitational Force of 4/3x Pi x r^3 x Rho (Steel) (~8.000 kg/m^3) x 9,81 m/s^2 and an opposing Force of drag being Rho (Air) (1,2kg/m^3) /2 x Cw x Pi x r^2 x v^2.
Cw for a ball between 0,2 and 0,4.

Lets assume 0,4 as a conservative number:

This yields: 660 x sqrt (r) = V term (in m/s)
Cannonball with 4 inch diameter:
=> Vterm ~ 150m/s = 335 mph.
2 inch : Vterm ~ 105m/s = 235mph.

So there is no universal terminal velocity even for a cannonball (even when neglecting Reynolds dependency of Cw which is not exactly true, for a ball Re will reduce to 1/3rd at high Reynolds numbers).

500N

5th Dec 2011, 21:25

"I don't know what exactly it is that you are smoking but may I carefully suggest to reduce the dose ?! http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/evil.gif"

That was my exact thought when I read SAM's post.

cornish-stormrider

5th Dec 2011, 21:28

Henra - this is Pprune.

How Dare you use Maths, Science and Sense - especially on this thread.

We are actually discussing SAM's real identity as Head of Black Ops. Mossad.
and not as I call he - the Uber-Walt

Mach Two

5th Dec 2011, 21:48

Nope. Didn't get any of that. And Reynold's number was Watford 34526.

HTB

6th Dec 2011, 08:31

Excluding today, nine days until we face SAM's clear and present danger; I'm sure those pesky Iranians are planning some patriot games to keep the west on its toes. On the other hand, time is on their side, and they could draw out all this tension without remorse until......October (or so I read when I hunted for it); it will surely add to the sum of all fears.

Sorry, getting a bit silly and carried away by the real world (of T Clancy), rather than SAM's fantasy version.

M2 - you nicked that last bit from an Air Clues article (about QFIing) published about 30 (or more) years ago.;)

Mister B

Tourist

6th Dec 2011, 10:05

SAM

Are you the 13yr old grandson of a bloke who used to work with cold war SAMs who likes listening to grandads stories a little too closely for his mental health but has no real knowledge of the world bar what he reads in bad newspaper articles and should pay as much attention to science lessons as he does to grandpa?

Maybe?

On_Loan

6th Dec 2011, 11:00

If the Israelis attack in your timeframe SAM I will eat my hat, and for good measure - any hat of your choosing too

jamesdevice

6th Dec 2011, 11:08

SAM
first time I've heard a suggestion that Israel has enhanced radiation warheads, or that its submarines are nuclear armed. Whats your source for those?
And what makes you think diesel-electric subs are noisy?

The Oberon

6th Dec 2011, 11:12

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I have been following this thread and also the one about the USA hypersonic glider programme to enable them to deliver conventional weapons within an hour. What is wrong with conventional MIRVs ? Are they not allowed, not accurate enough or what ?

Willard Whyte

6th Dec 2011, 11:16

jd

There is stuff about Israeli Navy's nuclear capability on wikipedia, for what it's worth.

In fairness JDW speculates the Dolphin subs may be part of Israels 2nd strike capability.

Defence Security Report (http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence-security-report.aspx?ID=1065927150)

dead_pan

6th Dec 2011, 12:56

unleash fatal attacks by Iran, Syria et al.

God forbid they unleash non-fatal attacks. Lets face it, Syria's armed forces are fairly pre-occupied at the moment and in no position to participate in another doomed-to-fail military venture against Israel.

As for Iran, I'm sure the Israelis, Yanks, Brits, Saudis etc etc are working feverishly behind the scenes to drive a wedge between the turbaned one and the poison dwarf. Give it a few months and hopefully the whole regime will come crashing down a la Libya, without a shot being fired or nuke being dropped in anger.

TEEEJ

6th Dec 2011, 13:22

jamesdevice wrote

.... or that its submarines are nuclear armed. Whats your source for those?

The story started with speculation that Israel had been testing Popeye Turbos from one of their subs in the Indian Ocean during 2000. Many people just accept it as fact when there is no real evidence.

Popeye Turbo - Israel Special Weapons (http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/missile/popeye-t.htm)

cornish-stormrider

6th Dec 2011, 14:19

Oh for goodness sakes SAM, we read your old posts, we read your new posts - they contradict each other.

Even I know Israel does not have 10 times our nuke capabilty.
Also the politics of a pissy PM against uncle sam would not even come close to the monies that would have to be paid to LM (IIRC) over the loss of the Trident platform missile.

SHARED rocket. OUR Warhead, now bugger off back to your tinfoil beanie...

500N

6th Dec 2011, 15:14

Cornish
"SHARED rocket. OUR Warhead, now bugger off back to your tinfoil beanie..."

Hold on, he can't bugger off yet, he's got 2 bets to pay up on in a few days time.

His ranting and ravings are getting worse.
"Every boy/man has to do many months of National Service - & just like Switzerland - they can keep an automatic weapon in their home."

and just what does that have to do with the Big Blu and Israel or the US conducting any sort of strike on Iran and it's nuclear facilities ?

SAM, go take another chill pill and I'll see you on the 15th - and then I am off into the wild's of Northern Australia, as far away from telephones, TV, SAMXXV, his rants and any possible war while you wait for the Mushroom clouds to develop (although Obama just stuffed that up by basing Marines and other nice aircraft up there and making it a target).

Lyneham Lad

6th Dec 2011, 16:06

Why didn't the sycamore seed that hit me on the bonce the other day leave me reeling in pain? Surely even such a small object would cause harm at such a tremendous velocity?

Reminds me of the time we were picnicking in the woods near Chateau Chambord. My wife suddenly leapt up, holding the top of her head, howling in anguish and saying something had hit her very hard, causing considerable pain. We came to the conclusion that an acorn had fallen from one of the (very tall) oak trees towering over the picnic area. Ever since, the incident has been described as her 'Chicken Little' moment by our sons.

OK, back on-topic. My bunker is ready in case Sam's worst predication comes to pass. Tickets available at very reasonable rates.

Mach Two

6th Dec 2011, 18:52

There you go. Acorn, no wing(s). Sycamore, wings. Just realised that earlier I stated that a sycamore seed has one wing - of course I was thinking of an Ash seed. Can't believe that I didn't get pulled apart for that one, but too late now!!!

So, everything has a terminal velocity in freefall, it's just different for everything. Oh, and SAM, that wasn't Newton.

Back to the thread, we appear to have moved on from Big BLU against Iran to Bunker Busters followed by nukes DOWN THE SAME HOLES. Holy crap, I want to see that done!

Right, here's a better plot. Iran joins NATO. Israel and the US bomb them. The rest of NATO is obliged to retaliate (an attack against one is an attack against all) and we're into WWIII. And to think we thought it would be the Cold War that was going to do that. Asking for suggestions for the tilte of my new book.

Willard Whyte

6th Dec 2011, 22:49

My bunker is ready in case Sam's worst predication comes to pass. Tickets available at very reasonable rates. If the three minute warning goes off I will be downing a couple of bottles of Cab Sauv to protect me. I'm sure Chateau Chambord* would substitute if required.

Oh, be glad you weren't picnicking 'neath a coconut tree.

*whether or not there is a Chateau Chambord is irrelevant, and more importantly not funny.

500N

6th Dec 2011, 22:58

M2
"Asking for suggestions for the tilte of my new book". With you latest ravings, the title should be:-

"I have the same problem as SAMXXV":O

Willard
Lucky he wasn't picnicking in Australia, they might have had a drop bear drop on them:O

Willard Whyte

6th Dec 2011, 23:05

they might have had a drop bear drop on them

OOOooh. Nasty.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lm8qw2MQEW1qhdqgbo1_400.jpg

500N

6th Dec 2011, 23:10

Have you seen how big they have become ? That's why I carry a big bore nowadays but I've still got to add one to the collection :O

http://australianmuseum.net.au/Uploads/Comments/18460/dropbear1.jpg

Willard Whyte

6th Dec 2011, 23:20

This thread has gone from Dropping Big Blus to Big Drop Bears in 6 pages.

As long as it doesn't drift to big bear droppings.

Finningley Boy

7th Dec 2011, 05:05

Do Bears S**t in the woods?!:ok:

FB:)

ORAC

7th Dec 2011, 05:20

As long as it doesn't drift to big bear droppings. But if you find any with little bells inside, be afraid, very afraid......

500N

7th Dec 2011, 06:49

ORAC

You might need to provide a link to it if you get my meaning.

anyway, don't forget they also smell of pepper spray ! LOL

HTB

7th Dec 2011, 08:16

M2

Just a minor point, but I think it worth mentioning - US is in NATO, so would they be obliged to retaliate against themseves post-strike agin Iran?:E

Mister B

jamesdevice

7th Dec 2011, 08:26

Willard
especially for you
Scat / Droppings (http://bear.org/website/bear-pages/black-bear/black-bear-sign/57-scat--droppings.html)

500N

7th Dec 2011, 08:36

And the difference between Black Bear and Grizzly bear :O

Watch For Bears Joke (http://www.boyscouttrail.com/content/joke/joke-606.asp)

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 08:37

Why didn't anyone tell me before, Mister B? So NATO is us, The USA and China, right? Anyway, luckily, I mistakenly said

"Iran joins NATO. Israel and the US bomb them. The rest of NATO is obliged to retaliate"

Note the accidental use of the word REST. So I need to adapt my new scenario in light of this new intelligence:

Arab League sanctions Iran. Iran applies to join NATO, EU and Euro zone and is accepted because it puts in the lowest bid to build the UK's new generation of nuclear plant AND the Trident replacement. Israel and the US bomb Iran because they need a war that can give quicker results than the previous two in order to push through their Defense (sic) spending bill. The REST of NATO is obliged to retaliate (an attack against one is an attack against all). We're at war. UK surrenders to the US so we're all effectively POWs, and the country is annexed. US has to pick up our national debt and everything is rosy.

I'm going to lie down now.

HTB

7th Dec 2011, 09:06

M2

You see, all that staff training was worthwhile in the end, you just forgot the detail...:)

When you say "the rest of NATO", does that include Germany and France? That new scenario is taking shape; I just hope that they don't make us drink Dr Pepper and eat maple syrup on our eggs over easy or SoS - cruel and unusual punishment.::yuk:

Mister B

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 09:11

Germany are in it too??? I thought they were the bad guys. Oh, you mean West Germany?

500N

7th Dec 2011, 09:21

Germany and France will sit this one out and then do a deal with the US
to take over the UK.

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 09:26

So get used to the Euro, sausages and that awful cabbage stuff now. Oh, dear. Next you'll be telling me our bombers and fighters will be made in Germany too!!! Now that would be stupid.

HTB

7th Dec 2011, 09:37

Don't forget the pig knuckle and furry tennis ball with gravy; all washed down with a quite reasonable selection of yellow beer (other types of beverage are available). Actually, some of the red cabbage dishes aren't too bad - similar to Delia's spicy recipe in her Christmas (or is it winter?) cookbook.

Mister B

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 09:44

Mister B, my father didn't die in three world wars so we could all go around eating cabbage. Actually, I might have to give them the pig knuckle. It was very good in the German (presumably West German) Club at Deci. Hey, this plan is looking up.

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 10:25

Oh, Déjà vu. Anyway, on Iran's US supplied a/c, you are right. In fact most of them stopped working 20 yeas ago. I'll come back to the rest later...

HTB

7th Dec 2011, 10:41

Didn't Iraq have lots of Sov fighter types back in 1991?

Don't forget N Korea in that nuclear club - we expect them to pitch in after midnight on 15 Dec to get Apocalygeddon rolling; only 8 and a bit days to go now, the tension is rising.

Anyhow, some daytime telly is quite good - watched an afternoon programme the other day that kept me enthralled...Wales vs Autralia.

Mister B

APG63

7th Dec 2011, 11:40

Mister B,

Yes they did.

Iran ended up with Lots of previous gen MiGs and SUs, including Frogfoot, MiG25, 27 and 29. I seem to recall some transports and helos too.

Iraq flew a lot of their MiGs and SUs to Iran in '91, which Iran grabbed and never gave back.

HTB

7th Dec 2011, 12:34

That'll be Iran's high tech modern air force then....and we were quite happy for them to be somewhere other than Iraq in '91.

Alone, unarmed and unafraid - our biggest threat was the USN's F14, who seemd determined to shoot anything that was airborne. Sorry drifting a bit.

Mister B

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 13:10

Yes, Mister B. They've got a lot of helos. Actually they have quite a lot of FJ airframes, but a lot are wrecks. Also, remember that Iran is a massive country with only 14 Tactical Air Bases (and some auxilliary airfields). So not much in the way of contemporary air and a huge chunk of airspace to cover.

Radar is another problem. Again a big space to cover. I don't think I can report any AWACS, athough there was talk about getting one from Russia - don't think it happened. Possibly a VHF, anti-stealth radar, but how much can one cover?

Thinking about SAMs, long range systems are located through the centre of the country and in the West - SA2 and SA5. Tactical systems are positioned, as you would expect, around strategic and population centres - mainly S200 and Hawk (yes, US sold them, they've kept them going).

There are one or two modern things, but...

That'll be Iran's high tech modern air force then.

jamesdevice

7th Dec 2011, 13:56

had an interesting experience a few years back, flying Swissair to Bombay overnight.
The cabin crew had insisted we pull down the blinds, but a bit later I lifted mine. As we crossed the border into Iran an F-14 passed directly over our starboard wing, in the reverse direction. At a best guess 20 feet above, 70 feet away from the fuselage. The Swissair pilot didn't flinch and our flight continued with no change in direction.
Next morning as we left I asked one of the pilots about it. He totally denied it had happened

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 13:59

Man, that drinks service is good on Swiss!

Fareastdriver

7th Dec 2011, 14:09

The Swissair pilot didn't flinch and our flight continued with no change in direction.

Is there any reason why he should have seen it?

jamesdevice

7th Dec 2011, 14:21

it must have approached virtually head on, and had navigation lights on.
You'd like to think it would have been seen.

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 14:42

One pilot snoozing, the other doing the crossword (OK doing things other than looking out the window). No TCAS. How would they know?

HTB

7th Dec 2011, 14:46

It was stolen by Emile Largo and converted to stealth standard before being passed on to the Iranians by the modern version of SMERSH - Nuclear Operations Secret Handling Intelligence Team (US was too embarrassed by the theft to reveal that the airframe was missing). SAM ex 15 has all the details; he'll brief us when good and ready (but hopefully before the 15th).

Mister B

Lonewolf_50

7th Dec 2011, 14:48

You presume the Iranian F-14 was squawking. ;)

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 14:57

Yes, I would doubt it if they meant to get close. On the other hand, if it was an accident (a close call), probably means they weren't under close control, so again probably not squawking.

Mr B. Nice acronym. Now take your tablets and relax. Unless you want to help with my new novel.

jamesdevice

7th Dec 2011, 15:10

Interesting thoughts. In my naivety I'd just assumed the mad b******s were playing chicken...

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 15:14

Well, if it did happen and you hadn't been hitting the schnapps from the drinks trolley, I would guess either an offensive VID or an accidental near miss.

jamesdevice

7th Dec 2011, 15:19

It happened, and I wasn't

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 15:28

Fair enough. You seem like a trustworthy chap! So, Offensive VID or accidental. Or, I suppose, as you say, bored F-14 crew ar$ing around. Lucky to see an IRIAF F-14. As I said earlier, very few left - although some unconfirmed rumour that the Ruskis had been helping them to keep them flying.

TEEEJ

7th Dec 2011, 15:56

During April 1991, the Iraqi foreign ministry published the following list of Iraqi aircraft flown out to Iran, and accordingly requested these aircraft back. The Iranians didn't return anything. Over the years the list became corrupted and that is why you see claims of MiG-25 and Tu-22s, etc.

- 24 Mirage F.1EQ/BQ
- 24 Su-24MK
- 40 Su-22
- 4 Su-20
- 7 Su-25
- 4 MiG-29
- 7 MiG-23ML
- 4 MiG-23BN
- 1 MiG-23UB
- 15 Il-76
- 2 Boeing 747
- 2 Boeing 737
- 1 Boeing 727
- 1 Boeing 707
- 2 Dassault Falcon
- 1 Lockheed Jetstar

The Iranians did return the Airbus that Iraq stole from Kuwait.

- 1 Airbus 300
- 5 Airbus A310

Ex-Iraqi Il-76 AWACS in Iranian service. This aircraft crashed in 2009.

Photos: Ilyushin Il-76MD Adnan 1 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Ilyushin-Il-76MD-Adnan/1445788/L/)

Iranian Military Planes Crashes in Annual Parade - Defense News (http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4289949)

The other ex-Iraqi IL-76 AWACS/AEW can be seen in the background of the following image. The Iraqi's mounted the radar on a pod replacing the cargo doors.

JetPhotos.Net Photo » EP-CFJ (CN: 11516) Iran Air Fokker 100 by Mehdi Nazarinia - MehdiPhotos.com (http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6018633)

Ex-Iraqi Su-22 Fitters in Iranian service.

Photos: Sukhoi Su-22M4K Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Sukhoi-Su-22M4K/1870959/L/)

Ex-Iraqi IL-76 in Iranian service.

Photos: Ilyushin Il-76TD Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Ilyushin-Il-76TD/1860702/L/)

Ex-Iraqi Mirage F1 in Iranian service.

Photos: Dassault Mirage F1BQ Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Dassault-Mirage-F1BQ/1693424/L/)

Photos: Dassault Mirage F1BQ-1 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Dassault-Mirage-F1BQ-1/1779721/L/)

Ex-Iraqi Su-24 Fencer with the big wing fences fitted. Iran also bought Su-24s direct from Russia.

Photos: Sukhoi Su-24MK Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Sukhoi-Su-24MK/1690418/L/)

Iran also put into service the ex-Iraqi MiG-29 and Su-25s.

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 16:00

Very good. Thanks TEEJ. About what I thought, but I'd forgotten about the F1s, of course. So no MiG25s then.

TEEEJ

7th Dec 2011, 16:11

Mach Two wrote

Very good. Thanks TEEJ. About what I thought, but I'd forgotten about the F1s, of course. So no MiG25s then.

No problem, M2. No MiG-25s were in the original list. I've seen other versions of the list but they appear to be corrupted variants of the original. Some of the Iranian fanboy conspiracy theory type websites have MiG-25s arriving and then being sold to Syria.

TEEEJ

7th Dec 2011, 16:47

A search found the following list as reported in Flight magazine during 1991.

The Iraqi foreign minister, Ahmad Hussein, in claiming that 148 military and civil aircraft took refuge in Iran, has been prompted for the first time to detail the aircraft involved.

Of the 115 military aircraft Iraq claims were flown to Iran, 24 were Dassault Mirage F.1s, plus all 24 of the IAF's new Sukhoi Su-24 Fencers, 40 Su-22 Fitters, four Su-20 Fitters, seven Su-25 Frogfoots, four MiG-29 Fulcrums, seven MiG-23ML Floggers, four MiG-23BN Floggers and a two-seat MiG-23UB Flogger.

In addition, Hussein claims that 33 civil aircraft crossed the border and are also held by Iran. These include two Boeing 747s, a 707, a 727 and two 737s, 15 Ilyushin ll-76s, two Dassault Falcon 20s and three Falcon 50s, a Lockheed Jetstar and one Airbus A300 and five A310As. The six Airbuses are Kuwait Airways aircraft stolen by Iraq. Also stolen from Kuwait but not yet accounted for are two Boeing 767-200ERs, a 727-200 and a pair each of Gulfstream IIIs and BAe 125s.

air force | gulf war | iraqi air | 1991 | 1035 | Flight Archive (http://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive/view/1991/1991%20-%201035.html)

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 17:40

Excellent. Shouldn't it be Frogfeet? :p

I was looking at their airfields on Google Earth. One of them - can't remember which now - has a lot of what look like Fitter C parked out in the open around some HASs. So I'm guessing they're just left there to rot.

jamesdevice

7th Dec 2011, 18:13

Do my usual evening google trawl, just came across this Xinhua press agency release from June Iran F-14 fighter jets operating despite U.S. sanctions: commander - People's Daily Online (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90854/7407191.html)
It briefly discusses the Iranians ability to continue flying the F-14, despite sanctions.
Its written very much as a "public interest" story, but Chinese news agencies, especially Xinhua NEVER do "public interest". Theres always some government directed agenda behind it.
Question is - whats the agenda here? Is it some kind of hidden warning? Or are the Chinese pointing out - in an underhand way - that they are the brains / resource behind the ongoing availability of the Iranian F-14 fleet?
Its even more interesting in that other Chinese agencies repeated the story the same day - citing Xinhua. Of course Xinhua credits an Iranian agency with the story, so establishing an "arms-length" situation to try deflect suggestion that the story is Chinese-orchestrated.
Any political China-watchers on here? Comments?

Mach Two

7th Dec 2011, 18:26

Hm. Interesting analysis there, JD. I like it. I had always understood that the Russians had had a hand in keeping some of the fleet going, but that's not to say the Chinese have too.

The stuff that's coming out now does seem to contradict the assements some years ago that led me to believe that very few were left. That may add weight to the theory that someone has been re-engineering them - possibly even re-engined them.

Let's invade them, nick their jets and find out. We have to or we may never know!

TEEEJ

8th Dec 2011, 11:25

Some footage of IRIAF F-14s

IRIAF F-14 Tomcat Overhaul - YouTube

A recent Iranian documentary

Part 1

Recent IRIAF F14 footage-P1/2.wmv - YouTube

Part 2

Recent IRIAF F14 footage-P2/2.wmv - YouTube

Fleeting footage at 0:49 with bomb load. The Iranians also display AIM-54 Phoenix on the IRIAF F-14s.

Iranian F-14 wiith AIM-54 Phoenix - YouTube

IRIAF F-4s

IRIAF TAB-9 Bandar Abbas - YouTube

A Visit to IRIAF TAB-3 in Hamedan and IRIAA Base in Kermanshah - YouTube

More on the following link including exercise footage.

FulcrumPilot's Channel - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/user/FulcrumPilot)

See following for images.

Photo Search Results | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/search/photo.search?airlinesearch=Iran%20-%20Air%20Force&distinct_entry=true)

APG63

8th Dec 2011, 11:47

Blimey, TEEEJ, you've been busy. Some great footage there. Thanks.

HTB

8th Dec 2011, 12:05

Can you hear it? The "Jaws" music starting to build up; seven and a bit days to go to SAM's prophesy fulfilment.

How will the purported cataclysmic event affect the balance of power? Will we adopt a state of seige while these power plays take place? Where will the point of impact be, and will the result be to divide and conquer?

I hadn't realised just how many books Mr Clancy has written; Mach 2 needs to get wiggle on if he wants to match the extensive output. I'm happy to help write the more lurid passages (but only after a few large malts to scramble the brain's reality nodes).:)

Mister B

Courtney Mil

8th Dec 2011, 13:46

Just been looking through one of the YouTube clips above (Recent IRIAF F-14 footage - Part 1/2) with two questions in my head - just how many F-14s are we seeing being flown here and how recent?

START Singleton. Iranian, but old
0:32 5 a/c crewing in but only one seen taxying. Old film.
0:50 F4D, not an F-14.
0:54 Phoenix? upload, probably an F-14. but no evidence of its serviceability.
1:00 What engines are those?
1:11 An F-14 who's canopy works.
1:15 A pair of F-14s flying, but this is old, wet film, not even vid.
1:32 Pairs approach. They look like IRIAF F-14s, but doesn't look like "recent" footage.
2:06 Missile firing, looks like an AIM7
2:11 'Splash' could have been anything.
2:18 That's an F4 gunsight with another F4 in it.
2:25 Single F14 flying.
3:52 Possibly 2 F-14s.
6:38 Very old film of a single F-14, part of it repeated. Looks like a faked emergency for the camera.
7:47 Single F-14 in a HAS, no proof of status.
END One F-14 then Russian.

So, it may look like we're seeing lots of F-14 flying, combatting, bombing, etc, but it is actually old, wet film, so could be from anytime and we only ever see two F-14s flying at any one time. There may be some slightly newer footage to place current faces into the film.

I'm not sure (from this footage at least) that we have evidence of a big op fleet of F-14s. As I said, that's only one of the clips. I do have some credentials with video/film, I do it professionally these days and have a fighter background. I'm not just spouting.

Courtney