15 ton "Big blu"

[Willard Whyte]

So wrong, yet, so right.

[TEEEJ]

Courtney,

The majority of part one is footage showing the history of the Iranian Tomcats. See videos at You Tube source for info.

A brief look at IRIAF F-14 Tomcat history in Iran.

In the second part the uploader is highlighting the serials in the updated footage.

This footage was first shown on IRIB1 on 16 Jan 2011...so its very recent footage.
It shows a TV reporter having fun with IRIAF F14 crew.
It shows these Tomcats:
3-6016 Recently overhauled
3-6058
3-6045
3-6057 (They're all standing on her back)
3-6052 under overhaul
3-6035 recently overhauled after 13 years in storage
3-60?? an empty tomcat frame

Capt Fallah performs a FCF on a tomcat
Capt Shafee' flies a Tomcat from TFB6 Bushehr to TFB8 Esfahan

How many F-14s are actually operational is anyone's guess?

Five up on parade during 2011

Photos: Grumman F-14A Tomcat Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Grumman-F-14A-Tomcat/1908063/L)

12 visible to me bringing up the rear in this parade image from 2008

Photos: Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29UB (9-51) Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Iran---Air/Mikoyan-Gurevich-MiG-29UB-(9-51)/1349418/L/)

[skydiver69]

Google "Israel Iran News" today & search. The underlying current is that Israel is looking at an air-strike on Iran on Christmas Day. That makes utter sense to me. I would do the same if I was religious - which I'm not.

That makes sense to me as well because Jews celebrate Christmas right...no wait a minute its because Shi'ites celebrate the birth of baby Jesus...no that still doesn't sound right...how about the air forces of Saudi, Syria or Turkey....? I can't think of any reason why an attack by Israel on Christmas day would make sense any more than an attack on any other day of the year unless of course they want Obama to choke on his Xmas morning cornflakes.

[HTB]

Welcome to the Twilight Zone SD69. Just bask in the warped logic and random changes of argument; marvel at the sheer volume of in-depth geo-political and military information and insightful anal ysis by a master of the art of obfuscation.

We now have just over 6 days to SAM's predicted meltdown in the middle east (and the subsequent global backlash as all the other states he has roped in start whooshing their rockets at their long standing enemies).

Hope I'm not revealing your plot for the book M2.;)

500N

Did you say you were going to Northern Territories for a bit of peace and quite and R&R? I was there just before Christmas......1974 with a 4 Vulcan detachment (Exercise Sunflower - the last one I believe); we spent 3 weeks at Darwin before going on to Singapore for another 3 week exercise, getting out of town about a week before Tracy let rip. Now that place must have looked like Armageddon afterwards - I think one of the few structures left standing was the (brick/concrete built) Territorian Hotel.

Gawd I feel old...:sad:

[500N]

HTB

Yes, that's correct, and the person I stay with was in Darwin on the night Tracy hit, has some interesting stories to tell. He wasn't evacuated as he had a Bulldozer and worked for the Gov't. Some of his photos are amazing, Tracy certainly did a more thorough job than the Japs and the Japs did a pretty good job anyway.

I've been lucky, in 10 years of going up in Dec / Jan I have dodge all the cyclones and only NEARLY got stuck once by flooding stopping me getting back to Darwin. 2 weeks after I left the River was 9 miles wide, nothing moved for weeks and months in the outer regions :O

It would have been very hot for you guys if you were from the UK, how did you survive the Wet Season build up (apart from drinking copius amounts of beer :O).

[cornish-stormrider]

Ooh Ooh Me sir, me - I'll have double - yes double against the next 12 months of a Major (i.e. more than the Osirak one saga ) bun fight.

Something that actually makes MSM and has people worried.
I will let the old farts of Prune - Beags, Tuc, Pop and Wholi etc referee....

I bet you £100 to the charidee of mil choice there is not a serious war in the mid-east before Dec 31st 2012.

Note - I might have to standing order that one - I would do 3 blats of £35, so bet is £105 if I cant pay in a oner.

You Up for it Sam??????/

[WE Branch Fanatic]

You're full of seasonal cheer aren't you SAM?

Why isn't the USA threatening Turkey this week?

Perhaps they're taking a break from Turkey in between Thanksgiving and Christmas?

Anyway, I feel a song coming on:

Get up in the morning, in my bomb proof shack
I wear a tin foil suit on my front and back
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.......
.....The Isrealites

etc

[jamesdevice]

SAM may have won his bet!
Earthquake 4.5 Richter in southern Iran today Fars News Agency :: Quake Hits Southern Iran (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007276687)

Well -it IS an earthquake bomb. While the Iranians were chasing fake drones they missed the big B-2 overhead

Or at least thats one theory

[Lyneham Lad]

Aha, I see that the earthquake is reported to be in Area 53.1. Is that a typo and they really meant Area 51... :suspect:

[HTB]

Cut that out you two - you'll only encourage SAM.

Three more days, plus the remains of today...no more earthquake stories, please.

500N - hope you had a good weekend up their with the slatwater crocs. I don't recall the weather being too oppressive when I was there in '74(although Singapore was a bit more humid and sticky), and we didn't need an excuse for drinking. Does my memory serve me well - was there a policy about proximity to the bar once a drink had been served (in schooners and ponies?), and was there an early closing policy that caused an unseemely rush at about 6-o-clock?

Mister B

[500N]

HTB

I don't leave until the 22nd or so.

Re "I don't recall the weather being too oppressive when I was there in '74"
must have been a mild build up then, normally Oct / November the heat and the oppressive humidity starts - which is why they call it the "Troppo season".
You must have spent most of your time in air conditioning :O

Singapore and Darwin are both in the tropics and both have the same type of weather, maybe just your perception of what was what then.

Don't know about the proximity to the bar rule, apart from being general Pub politeness to let others get served. however the "caused an unseemly rush at about 6-o-clock ?" was called the 6 o'clock swill and yes, it did occur, then everyone piled out onto the street with the obvious consequences. Note - I wasn't around then, just know of it from reading and being told stories.

" Cut that out you two - you'll only encourage SAM."
The thread has become a bit boring since SAM quietened down.

3 more days ............

[HTB]

500N

I think there was a line marked on the floor about a yard (maybe less) from the bar edge to discourage loiterers (this was a long time ago). I certainly remember much more monsoon type rain in Singapore, Darwin was dry and sunny, and I was only 24, so didn't feel pain or discomfort...

I also recall the Gp Capt's welcoming chat..."don't get suckered in by the clouds, you'll still burn" and "keep away from the smoke from bush fires, it's full of insects riding the thermals - no danger from the bugs, but the birds that eat the bugs are pretty big" (think his name was Henderson).

Don't worry, he'll be back - to pay off his debt:E

Mister B

[Fareastdriver]

6 o'clock swill

I remember that in Rockhampton in 1969 when mighty Whirlwinds were transported from Singapore to Australia for exercise 'Coral Sands'.

The bar top was covered in (5oz?) glasses and the barmaid would fill them with beer streaming continuously from a pipe. When they opened a line of gorrillas would slap down some A$s and buy a row.

[rmac]

Having just finished watching Obama's speech on the US withdrawal from Iraq and the accompanying information that from the end of the year Iraqi airspace will now be protected by three propeller driven aircraft, it did occur to me that the major obstacle to an Israeli airstrike against Iran has now been lifted :\

[500N]

Israel will be launching a raid, with TOT being 0001 Z 16 DEC 2011:O

[cazatou]

500N

That's a Friday - surely they would leave it three more days so they could play "Just another manic Monday" as background music as they ran in to drop their loads? :rolleyes:

[500N]

Is that what you lot get up to when on a bombing run ?:O

The Iranian reply will be to have 99 Luft Balloons up in the sky as a reply.


Just out of interest, do pilots listen to music when flying, such as when doing long distance boring transits ? Such as flying FA18's from the US to Australia ?

or at any other time ?

[cazatou]

500N

I will only admit to listening on HF to commentary on the first Moon Landing whilst en route to Cyprus!!

[HTB]

500N - re listening to music

In the Tornado, yes (and the nav listened too:cool:). The rear cockpit had probably the most expensive cheap cassette player in the world, primarily for loading mission data into the computer. The tape machine could be used for recording cockpit conversation, so you could narrate the mission progress for later debrief. It could also be used for playing music cassettes, but at your own risk, as it had a propensity for chewing up the tapes (including the mission data - manual data entry anyone?).

Hey, it's nearly 15th, are you as excited as I am...:rolleyes: Where is SAM?

Mister B

[ORAC]

The tape machine could be used for recording cockpit conversation, so you could narrate the mission progress for later debrief. It could also be used for playing music cassettes Dire Straits, "Brothers in Arms" at Akrotiri IIRC....... ;)

[500N]

HTB

Check your PM's.

[HTB]

ORAC

I did buy a "Brothers in Arms" tape when it was newly released, but that was in Dundee (Leuchars det), then left it in my holdall, in the spent links bay, so no new music on the transit back to LBH...D'oh

That's not to say that I didn't also have it at AKR (I favoured southern rangers, while may others found the delights of scandinavia more th their liking:E).

Mister B

[500N]

HTB
"Hey, it's nearly 15th, are you as excited as I am...:rolleyes:

I have to wait until nearly the 16th on my time :O


"Where is SAM?"
MIA by the looks of it, better send out the SAR (or CSAR).


I see Obama asking for his Drone back, maybe he'll send / drop a Big Blu to destroy it.
.

[HTB]

We're into hours now - about 36 to go. I expect SAM is absent as he needs to go to the bank to withdraw the cash...

Haven't you been following the SARH thread - UK does not have such things as SAR, seesaw, CR - something about JWPMT in the glossy MoD brochure.

Mister B

[500N]

Yes, I have been following the SAR thread.

Quite interesting is all I will say !!! LOL



If the "UK does not have such things as SAR", then what is the duke doing ?
Flying around for jollies ?:O

[HTB]

Ooops

I meant CSAR

H

[Courtney Mil]

We usually get the Americans to do our CSAR for us.

Yes, the F3 Data Recorder was OK for music, but I had another plan. I got our squippers to make me up a patch lead that went between the mic/tel connector of my helmet and the aircraft portion. It had a short lead to plug into my own casette player, piping the music into the mic side of the system. That meant that hitting we had music in the cockpit and pressing the tx button allowed us to transmit to the rest of the formation - or anyone else that cared to listen. Worked in the Hawk and F4 too (with a different connector).

[passpartout]

Post 289...

You know things are not going well when WEBF starts bantering you!:D

[Courtney Mil]

In this case I don't think things have been going well for a long time!

[500N]

"In this case I don't think things have been going well for a long time!"


LOL,

He seems to get shot down in flames all the time but manages to get back up and shot down again.
.

[HTB]

About 15 hours to the first tremors....but probably not induced by a big bomb. I'm almost tempted to stay up late tonight, maybe.

Mister B

[500N]

HTB

I wouldn't stay up, fate has it that I have to go out so I'll be back a bit after 0200 Z.

Probably best to wait 'till the next day LOL:O

[Courtney Mil]

It would be like staying up for Christmas when you know it's not going to happen.

[500N]

Courtney
Agree, but he's not going to get off that lightly:O

[Courtney Mil]

Too right, Mate!

[glojo]

What's that noise I just heard??









http://playstationeu.i.lithium.com/t5/image/serverpage/image-id/60339iCEEEC96EE36C59A1/image-size/original?v=mpbl-1&px=-1

[Willard Whyte]

I thought it was about to kick off last night. I was in the garden having a smoke when I saw two trails of light accross the sky.

Turned out they weren't MIRVs* from a Shahab 6 but a couple of shooting stars.

*actually, it supposedly has a single warhead, before the pedants leap on me.

[HTB]

You'r a bit previous SAM lad, unless I misunderstood, the deadline was 2359Z today.

While we're watching and waiting, would you fancy setting another deadline for a further little wager? How long is "several weeks"?

Mister B

[glojo]

Well Done Sam and try not to bite at any more hooks that might be cast in your direction.

I am here to read the excellent posts on the numerous threads on this forum and it does sadden me to see folks that perhaps cross that line between banter and insults.

We are all individuals with the right to express an opinion, if we disagree with what is said then fine, if we can add humour to our posts that might disagree with what is being said then so much the better, but why hurl insults at those that show a passion in what they belief? Sea Harriers dropping nuclear fifteen ton bombs on Tehran may happen or it may not... :ouch::ouch::ouch::ouch::O

My thoughts are that any nation that is insane enough to use a nuclear weapon of any size will hopefully be immediately ostracised by the rest of the World!

If in the next eight weeks we have a nuclear weapon used in the Middle East then I will match the sum you were cajoled in paying out to the exact same charity.

Have a nice Christmas and keep your tackle out of the water! ;)

[Courtney Mil]

GloJo,

I take your points re banter/insults. I think a few people have become really frustrated by a number of 90 degree changes of direction and not having points answered/acknowledged/read. But your point is a good one.

Re your: My thoughts are that any nation that is insane enough to use a nuclear weapon of any size will hopefully be immediately ostracised by the rest of the World!

A good idea. I think the threat of not talking to a nation and sending them to Coventry will be a lot cheaper that having to go through all that tedious nuclear deterence and military reprisals!!! :E

[cazatou]

glojo

SAM is, as far as I am aware, the first Ppruner to blame the President of the United States for the Ppruner's incorrect assessment.

[glojo]

Okay fair cop... Send them to Birmingham or perish the thought.... Cornwall :) :)

I totally accept the very valid point regarding those 90 degree turns but I guess these hand-brake turns are all done to test the patience of those folks who are better informed ;);)

[Courtney Mil]

Glojo,

I think you're right. Also, as I have said before, the bold predictions have made for a very entertaining thread.

Caz,

Yes, that's another first and I shall have a word with Obama. :)

[cornish-stormrider]

Glojo - you are treading on thin ice -

We don't want your rejects especially if they turn out to be Sam,

[Lonewolf_50]

Sadly I may have been several weeks out because of the US administration's cowardice in supporting Israel. The use of B2 launched (from the US) WILL happen in the next few weeks, followed by immediate Israeli air strikes using Iraqi airspace after the US has officially withdrawn by Xmas 2011.
The only part of that post that makes any sense is the IAF abilit to fly through Iraqi airspace with relative impunity once the USAF withdraws from its control of Iraqi air space.

Not sure what US and Iraqi accords has been agreed regarding sharing info on airspace monitoring.

I am not party to the signed agreement, nor the details staffed out, but I have my doubts that, since a few thousand "advisors" remain to "help" in a diplomatic role, the airspace monitoring functions will go completely black.

That said, the IAF can probably blaze through Iraqi airspace if they'd like to, in January. That does not mean they will.

The rest of your estimation doesn't fit very well, however ...

[Green Flash]

lonewolf

I wonder if there is some agreement for the US to hold a Q from Kuwait and Turkey over Iraqi airspace, al la the old Northern/Southern Watch, until Iraq gets it's F-16's? The irony is that back in the day, the CAP's were to stop whatever that was in Iraq, getting out, whereas now it would be the other way round :\

A thought - what about a pre-emptive by Iran on Isreal? :eek:

[Courtney Mil]

I don't know about when or what might happen, SAM, but they are probably under pressure to consider doing something. However, Obama was never one to take the US into any more ops/conflicts if he could possibly avoid it. He did not want to lead in Libya and is really keen to get out of Iraq a.s.a.p. He wants a clean slate before the next election because he still thinks he's in with a chance.

I think I can understand that Saudi spend billions in defence without using it aggresively whilst following their version of fundamental Islam. Two different things. That doesn't make them weird, it's just the way they are.

So do you think the 15 ton big blus are out of the picture now?

Courtney

[500N]

glojo

Good post, points taken in.

I have no problem with differing view points but when someone shouts a very "left field" position, then goes from one extreme to the other, at the same time contradicting themselves every few posts, without reading or answering anyone's questions asking him to justify what he said, then I would say at some point someone will challenge you to stand by your convictions. Especially when almost speaking on or setting US Gov't policy.

I did become a bit belligerent, fair cop, but it achieved the objective.

I queried you on the Pearl Harbour thread, you answered every question, in detail and with a well structured post.

[500N]

SAM

"Sadly that can only be the use of tactical small yeild nuclear bombs to destroy underground facilities.

We shall see very shortly.:ugh:"


Care for another, double or nothing ?:O

Wasn't the 15 ton Big Blu specifically designed for use on "underground facilities" because no other current bomb could penetrate far enough in to be certain of destroying them ?

Why would they now switch to "tactical small yield nuclear bombs" apart from denying an area due to nuclear fall out ?

[Courtney Mil]

Good points 500N. Residual rad would deny the area for (effectively) ever. Plus, so would a "bunker buster". Remember that Chernobyl and Fukushima weren't nuclear explosions, just explosions that threw a lot of nuclear material out of its hole. So the 15 Ton Big BLU in the right place would (potentially) have the same effect. But only on the sites that held significant nuclear inventory.

Like you, I ask if the Big BLU is now out of the frame?

Courtney

[500N]

Courtney

At 200 feet down, massive explosion creating an earthquake effect,
how much really does rise up out of the ground or does the majority
just collapse and fall in a heap - or hole as the case maybe (refer the holes / depressions left after huge underground (nuclear) explosions).


Either way, considering he bet money on it, a very quick change of tactical tune.

[Courtney Mil]

Very quick indeed, Mate.

Yeah, that deep would make a difference, I guess. Not sure how deep these things a burried. Either way, once the stuff is out of it nice, cozy protective containment and in the ground, no one's about to go and dig it up or mess with the site!

Courtney

[500N]

Not sure how a military person can not understand 2359Z but then again ......

Anyway SAM, still 1 hour 20 to go, the planes could be in the air, transiting Iraq as we speak, just about to head across the water for a TOT just before the deadline. And from the posts on here about fly pasts / the pilots take great pride in getting the TOT correct to the second, so you never know.


.

[frg7700]

I have the beer in and am tuned to CNN.

I believe.

[500N]

I don't (believe), but was hoping for another Shock and Awe campaign like the GW, then sit back and watch the president go off his rocker on TV.

.

[500N]

Press Release


US State Department !


Released 2359 Z 15th Dec 2011

The Security Agencies of the United States of America strongly refute rumours that we have deployed any air delivered weapons against the Islamic Republic of Iran. There has clearly been no evidence of any such action despite speculation to the contrary, including significant earthquakes as reported by jamesdevice and Lyneham Lad, much to the annoyance of HTB who didn’t want to encourage SAM.

The US Gov't would also like to deny rumours that it has dropped any Big Blu's on Iran (or any other country for that matter), except for testing in Area 51, or was that Area 53.1 ?

Our intelligence agencies have been following certain organizations with regard to specific speculation and disclosure of privileged information, some of which has been traced to a small number of unstable individuals in the United Kingdom. We can assure our allies that steps are being taken to track down and eliminate these rogue elements, more often than not junior officers with visions of grandeur.

One aviation related website has been the subject of close scrutiny in recent weeks and we are close to identifying one key individual that will be apprehended, with the cooperation of our UK allies. It is safe to identify the PPRuNe espionage organisation, believed to harbour a particular, subversive and dangerous individual using the undercover codename SAMXXV. This agent is wanted in connection with our investigations. He or she is believed to be mentally unstable, unable or more likely unwilling to read other people’s writing, reportedly escaped from a secure facility and is a serious threat to the national security of the United States and the United Kingdom.

In addition, even though we acknowledge the power of PPRuNe forums as a centre of excellence by mostly ancient person's in Blasers and ties, with the odd mad person thrown in, the US Government runs State Department Policy and all military decisions, not some mad junior ops officer called SAM.

So, how to collect the payment from SAM ?

We were going to send a SAR cab over to collect the payment from SAM, however their seems to be some dispute as to whether the RN or Civvy SAR are actually capable of achieving the desired result of being able to hover in one place while the untrained winch man lowers the bucket. That’s if Tourist doesn’t nail you first ! We could always use [email protected], but not sure he’d get past the interview with SARowl on the interview panel. Can you imagine Crab and Tourist as Pilot and Co-Pilot ?

Alternatively, we could have sent over a DRONE, however their was some dispute over whether flying pay should be forthcoming. But then some US Government official blabbed too much at a press conference and a spotty faced teenager decided to hack into the DRONE and bring it down.
If only it had a pilot in it, oooopppss, forgot, just to keep Mach Two happy, it’s an "Unmanned Air Vehicle" or whatever acronym the drone people come up with every few weeks. Yep, it’s unmanned yet they still get flying pay and wear green overalls !

Thought of using a Typhoon but we then had a problem with the spare parts supply for the current Typhoons, the result being the majority of the fleet were grounded and what was left was on CAP over the UK.

That left us with possibly using our 3rd and 4th Gen aircraft, however regardless of what Tourist says, we were worried that all of our 3rd and 4th Gen aircraft might be susceptible to 1st gen bullets so decided to leave them in the hangar. At the suggestion of various posters, the RAF might be dropping Her Majesty’s finest beer kegs in the future, that is if they haven’t already been jettisoned by the likes of Bo Nalls, just another jocky and probably a few others over the sands of the Middle East. On the other hand, let’s hope it’s not jamesdevice piloting the FJ as we don’t think his bomb accuracy would be that good based on how he drops posts about beer in the wrong thread !:O

We didn’t have any 1st gen aircraft so alisoncc and Mach Two tried to find some Titanium ingots but to no avail, the result being that Mach Two started building a jet engine out of baked beans and beer cans. If only he had manufactured it using BRISTOL’s methods instead of Rolls Royce’s, he might have succeeded.

If only we had been quicker, we could have grabbed one of the Aussie F111’s before they were buried or even better, one of the Harriers. Although that is a bit of a bonkers idea, at least we would have had enough for a 4-ship formation. Sharkey Ward would approve.

Then one of the team was invited to an afternoon bash at the local big wigs house in his new village and asked the question about what he should wear and what he should take which distracted us all. This totally distracted the subversives on PPRuNe who were like a load of old ladies having a mother’s meeting, the answer(s) took many pages, which was superb comedy but distracted from the task at hand.

Then a few members PVR’d which left us short of pilots. Not to worry, plenty of snotty nosed junior pilots still wet behind the ears available according to SAM, even though they didn’t measure up to the experience criteria as laid in public for all to see, we’ll still give them a multi million dollar aircraft that is hard to fly and even harder to land. Sorry, forgot, it’s easy to land, just drop the wing tips onto roof of the chase cars and everything will be fine. Mmmmmm, that’s interesting, why is their a video showing multiple crashes, skids and U turns of U2’s on landing. The video must be a fake, SAM’s always right, even if he does get his dates mixed up and is 10 years behind the times.

Even so, for all those who have partaken in the whole event, their might even be a Queens Medal in it for you, that is if everyone can agree on the stuffed up criteria for who gets it.

So, in view of all of the above, AND to keep SAM happy, we will now be relieving one of the U2 chase cars from holding up the U2 wings on landing to drive and pick up the winning bet from SAM. In deference to past heroes and videos, we will be using the call sign “Green Leader” and the co pilot “Flaps 50”. Ksimboy, I know it’s the parachute that is supposed to flap in the wind, but you don’t need a parachute with flaps like the one's shown in THAT video.:O

I will be off for a few weeks to the very hot and very wet “Never Never” climes in Crocodile Dundee country of Northern Australia where we have found the best respite from the heat and humidity is copious amounts of G&T. Of course delivered by pulling the 4 levers on the overhead console of the Herc, if they are actually there. And if the US or Israel do drop Big Blu while I am away, I won’t know about it for a few days at least.

And for all those that have been partaking in some superb and funny discussions on PPRuNE over the last year, even if we couldn’t make a video like HMS Ocean, put on your Tin Foil hats to protect yourself from SAM and I hope you and your family have a very Merry Xmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year from the odd one out on this forum being ex Green (SAM, please note, it is Green not Brown).

As you can see from the above, thank you for a year of fun and more importantly, for putting up with me:O

[glojo]

500N
ABSOLUTE CLASSIC and very well researched.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[phil9560]

Happy Christmas 500N.

That was a top effort !:D

[HTB]

BZ!:D

Mister B

[Courtney Mil]

500N,

Absolutely outstanding, Mate! A lot of work must have gone into that. And congrats on the bet. It's made an already fantastic day even better.

A very Merry Christmas to you and yours.

Courtney

[Courtney Mil]

SAM,

I think that makes a lot of sense. Obama's election bid may well have left Israel out in the cold. With friends like the US President, who needs enemies like Iran? None of those options looks very inviting to me.

Is SAM suppression something to do with keeping you under control?? ;)

Merry Christmas.

[Willard Whyte]

I was a bit upset until I read this bit...

with the odd mad person thrown in

I got a mention after all.

[Courtney Mil]

"...but appears to have been dropped for the last 6 years. Why?"

Jon Nichol still appears on the occassoional debate on Radio 2 and 4, but not so much elsewhere. I think he was wheeled out during Libya. Remember that John Peters co-wrote Tornado Down with Jon Nichol.

The "SAM suppression" was supposed to be a joke, BTW.

Courtney

[HTB]

SAM

Who's this Nicholson bloke - American actor? And I think you mean 'innumerable', not 'innumerate' - most of are capable of counting and doing a little arithmetic.

Probably best that you retire gracfully (or otherwise) from enlightenend debate, especially if your humour detection feelers are inoperative.

Why is JN not heard and seen on the media so much - well, I guess one's value as a 'military expert' has a shelf life that diminishes with time elapsed from the experience that gave you such expertise.

Goodbye, I would like to say what a pleasure it has been exchanging views with you, but...

Mister B

[Mach Two]

Damn! Just missed it. Was hoping to be back in time for H Hour.

Nice post 500N. The tin can engines are coming along just fine.

SAM, looks like you paid up early. Nice one.

SAM suppression? Worth a try!

M2


P.S. Courtney, I hear you're a grandad! Congrats, Mate!

[Courtney Mil]

Welcome back M2. Thank you. Three new scenarios there for your book!

[manccowboy]

Just looking at the bigger picture, maybe a US/Israeli attack on Irans nuclear installations will happen once all US troops are out of Iraq.

Obama need the Jewish vote to realise any chance of a second term in office.

[jamesdevice]

Picking on SAM again? Sounds like weasel words

[Green Flash]

Picking on SAM again? Sounds like weasel words - it's Ok, no HARM done

[500N]

Thanks. Hope I didn't offend anyone.

Welcome back M2, good to see you returned safely.

Courtney, congratulations on becoming a Grandad to an Aussie :D

SAM, all good :ok:


As someone else said, Obama needs the Jewish vote but it might not extend to helping Israel attack so they like you say, they might be doing it by themselves.

The Political landscape in the US is not going to help in the near future.
.

[Courtney Mil]

Nicely put, 500N. I would say the end of a thread. But, is there more to come?????

[Mechta]

Just a thought, if Israeli military aircraft don't have the range and run the risk of detection, suppose if one of the many IL-76s or AN-124s (aka flying white vans) that ply the worlds airlanes were to be transiting Iranian airspace and one or two items of 'cargo' fell out...

[cazatou]

On the occasions that I flew to Tehran when based at RAF Sharjah we were always very conscious of the proximity of the USSR Border. I would think that the current Russian Federation would have extremely strong views in respect of a nuclear attack on Tehran!!

[jamesdevice]

Not so sure about that. I can see the Russian being quite happy if the populations of their nearest Republics - Dagestan, Chechnya and the two Ossetias - were wiped out by fallout
If the radiation did get that far, then Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan would be affected as well - solving a few more problems for the Russians

[SASless]

On the occasions that I flew to Tehran when based at RAF Sharjah we were always very conscious of the proximity of the USSR Border.

Yeah right Caz.....what kind of navigator are you?

You would have had to cross a whole mountain range to get to the Russian border....and ignore a rather large bit of water called the Caspian Sea in the process!

One would have to be almost two hundred nautical off course and beyond your destination to cross into Russian airspace!

[cazatou]

SASless

I was referring to the USSR NOT the current Russian Federation. A 30 knot wind would spread contamination over a very large area in 10 hours.

[Wwyvern]

SASless

I'm sure you know that you don't need to see the ground to navigate. In 1961, during Gulf War Minus 1, the UK-based Hunter squadrons had the task of replacing the FGA aircraft which helped dissuade the pre-Sadam Iraq from taking over Kumait. During my trip, on the eastbound leg through Turkey from Nicosia to Teheran, I experienced very strong NDB signals emanating from the north. They had the ident of the eastern beacon to which we were flying. Fortunately, we had been briefed to expect this.

On the way back, the knackered old Hunters we had to return to UK did not have serviceable kit to lock on to the rogue signals.

Side track - is your location Destin near Eglin? I spent a very enjoyable holiday in Destin with a USAF mate from RAF Staff College. I saw USAF C130s practising their technique to recover SF troops using the long line and balloon. Absolutely amazing.

[jamesdevice]

I think SASless was pointing out that the nearest Soviet states - Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan - are both around 500 miles to to the NORTH of Tehran, while Sharjah is to the south
Flying Sharjah > Tehran takes you nowhere near Soviet territory

[Courtney Mil]

Erm, we may be missing the point. If anyone went nuclear, there are a dozen major powers that would react very nastily, no matter how close their borders. Fallout doesn't stop at borders (as you have said), but it does go a long way. Chernobyl hit Sweden first and reached the UK in a couple of days. You don't have to be East (in the northern hemiphere) to get a big dose.

[jamesdevice]

you can't compare the fallout trail from an ongoing major fire involving nuclear materials in a reactor core as experienced at Chrnobyl (or the Windscale pile for that matter) with the radioactive debris from a nuclear detonation
Depending on type / size /delivery and weather the fallout from a bomb could be relatively minimal

[Courtney Mil]

You're right, James. But the amount of fallout (or, more correctly, contamination) isn't the issue when it comes to how nations react. First it's the issue of someone using a (no pun intended) device. Second ANY intusion of radionucleides into someone else's "space" is not going to be well received. What's the difference between "a bit of containation" and "a sh*t load of it"?

I only used Chernobyl as an example to illustrate where this stuff can go.

[rh200]

If anyone went nuclear, there are a dozen major powers that would react very nastily, no matter how close their borders

Just how much damage can harsh language, and stomping your feet, do? No one will do anything unless they could be sure they couldn't be hit as well. Its the both the beauty and the curse of Nukes. Once you actually have them its a game changer.

[jamesdevice]

And who is going to react? Not India
Pakistan don't have a delivery system to hit Israel, and probably wouldn't be daft enough to try.
Russia? They'd be only too glad to lose their problems in the Caucasus. They might rattle a few verbal sabres, but long term they'd be better off politically.

[Courtney Mil]

I take all your points there, but I can't really see the other actors just sitting back and saying, "Tut, look what they've gone and done now. Oh, well, let's get on with Christmas. Only a few nukes after all."

Perhaps they'll move on from stamping feet to a UN Resolution!!!

[500N]

SAM

"I think that the unfolding events in North Korea have suddenly changed the focus of the US somewhat & Iran is partially "off the radar" for the next few weeks. The US has some 28,500 personnel stationed in S.Korea, with thousands more in Japan. Iran (to the US) is a FUTURE threat & therefore of no immediate consequence"

Agree with you here SAM, focus will be on North Korea for a few months unless Iran does something stupid.

"The situation in N.Korea is a whole new ballgame that should have been anticipated & planned for (but I bet it wasn't....)."

That "bet" word again !!! - No bite from me :O. I would say it had been planned for, just maybe it was not expected to happen quite as quickly as it has.

I was of the understanding that the various US commands have a whole range of contingency plans already drawn up and war gamed. Wasn't US Central Command running a war game with Iran as a Central player just as Iraq invaded Kuwait and they had to stop the war game as events over took it ?

Sam
Maybe they will use Big Blu on North Korea.

.

[Mach Two]

SAM, you're back. Glad you had a change of heart from post #347!

Kim Jong Il, did not die of a heart attack, it was a CIA assassination. His son will almost certainly seize the opportunity to have a go at the South, hoping that international focus will be split between his actions and Iran. I would expect a border crossing any day now, although the South's high state of readiness will certainly halt them fairly quickly. That will be when the North has to fall back on its nuclear capability and will select specific military targets, not civilian ones. Now, the only question remaining is how will the US respond, especially with all those US personnel there?

[Courtney Mil]

M2, did you work that yourself or have you suddenly stopped taking your medication?

[jamesdevice]

he's been ghost writing for Tom Clancy again

[500N]

M2

Did you cop a bit too much sun or did SAMXXV manage to log on under your name ?

What you wrote is almost worth a bet if it had a time frame on it :O

.

[Mach Two]

Three days, max, 500N. The writing's on the wall. But I couldn't take your money, it's just too obvious.

While they're in their a ten-day period of mourning and headless, they're hoping that the world won't be expecting any immediate action. Meanwhile Kim Jong-un is secretly seizing power in Pyongyang and preparing to strike. They've been after the South for decades. He sees this as his big chance.

It will be a dawn raid on 22nd December. So, allowing for the time difference, that would make it 21:17 on 21 Dec in the UK.

Wait and see.

M2

[jamesdevice]

none of the South Korean press agencies are showing or reporting signs of panic or military readiness
The only speculation seems to be "was the heart attack real or induced" with suspicion falling on ousted members of the North Korean military

[Mach Two]

That's it exactly. The South Koreans are happily thinking the handover of power will take 10 days. What better time to hit them? Their forces are on "heightened alert", but that's just a minimal effort done as posturing.

At first I thought it might have been Mosad, seeking to shift the World's attention off them ahead of their Iranian strike. But now I'm sure it was the CIA, attempting to destabilize the regime. They will find their plan has all gone horribly wrong!

[rmac]

M2 ;) :D

[Courtney Mil]

M2, Can South Korea stop North Korea as you suggest?

[Mach Two]

They can hold them up. North has over 1,000,000 regulars and their reservists aren't quickly mobilized. South has 700,000 regulars and 3,000,000 reserves at readiness. The South have been effectively holding them back for decades.

Problem is that Obama wants re-election so won't get involved. Probably pull everone out of South Korea. That removes another barrier to the North using their nukes on their long range Nodong 1 missiles. They only have eight so they'll want to target carefully.

Remember they've got loads of chemical weapons, over 5,000 tons of them. Yes, this will be a WMD war before the end of the week.

[coldair]

KIMmortal: Death not the end as N. Korea tests missile — RT (http://rt.com/news/north-korea-missile-test-143/)

North Korea has reportedly conducted at least one short-range missile test amid worldwide concerns that the death of Kim Jong-il could destabilize the most militarized region in the world.
­South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Monday’s test came as North Korean state media announced the country’s longstanding leader had died of a heart attack while traveling by train.
South Korean military officials were unable to immediately confirm the report, saying it would be a breach of policy to comment on intelligence matters. However, government officials, speaking under condition of anonymity, told Yonhap the test had taken place off the country’s east coast, on the Sea of Japan.
A source from Russia’ Foreign Ministry also told Interfax news agency they were unable to confirm whether or not North Korea had launched a short-ranged ballistic missile.
However, despite international concerns, the launch is unlikely to be connected with news of Kim Jong-il’s death, as South Korean authorities reported it was carried out prior to the official announcement concerning Kim’s passing, Interfax reports.

But James Corbett, editor of Japan-based news website Corbett Report, thinks the reported missile tests were a demonstration of power for the neighbors and the world. “The new regime in North Korea is looking to assert its power and to show that it obviously still exists at the world stage and that this is not going to destabilize the country.”

Meanwhile, as North Korean state media has hailed Kim Jong-il’s youngest son Kim Jung-un as the "great successor," the world community is increasingly alarmed over the impact of instability in a state which has actively pursued nuclear weapons.

The Untied States expressed its ongoing commitment to stability on the Korean peninsula amid the news of Kim senior’s death
Speaking with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak by phone, President Barack Obama said he would closely monitor developments.
Japan held a special security meaning “to deal with the unexpected.”
Meanwhile, South Korea put its military on high alert as the country has technically remained at war with the north since the 1953 Armistice agreement halted major hostilities.

As the size of North Korea’s nuclear weapon’s stockpile remains unknown, the country proved its capability with the successful detonation of a nuclear device on October 9, 2006.
Then, on April 14, 2009, North Korea conducted its second nuclear weapons test after the six-party talks aimed at peacefully resolving security concerns arising from the country’s nuclear program collapsed in 2008.
It is currently estimated that North Korea has enough plutonium to make six bombs, though they are not yet believed to have the ballistic missile capability which would allow the country to deliver a nuclear warhead.

With a 1.2 million-strong standing force, North Korea currently has the world’s fourth-largest army.
RT talked to Rudiger Frank, professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, who thinks there are three possible scenarios of how North Korea will continue its nuclear program now that Kim Jong-il is gone. The scenarios he offers depend on who will take power in the country.
“If Kim Jong-un takes over… North Korea will continue to play the nuclear card as a bargaining chip in negotiations. If a collective leadership along the Chinese example will be installed there are chances of actually North Korea giving up its nuclear program, because it does not need it anymore.”
Professor Frank also says there is a possibility of a chaos scenario with no particular leadership in the country. In this case “we might even have to fear that these weapons are used in this way or the other.”


Coldair.

p.s. Sam, please keep posting. Your comments are very thought provoking and have given me an insight into subjects I was little aware of.

[Mach Two]

I agree with all three of those scenarios. But the third is the one. Their window of opportunity is running out. Their bombs will not last forever (no infinite shelf-life, you know) and opportunities like this don't come along every day.

They like to use big external events to divert public gaze away from internal problems, usually bashing South Korea. There will be lots of internal opposition to Kim Jong Um becoming the great successor, so seizing power quickly and effectively taking his country to war is his best hope of securing power.

[Lonewolf_50]

There will be lots of internal opposition to Kim Jong Um becoming the great successor, so seizing power quickly and effectively taking his country to war is his best hope of securing power.
Or getting himself assassinated.

[Courtney Mil]

Or bombed back to the stone age.

[jamesdevice]

it will be Christmas day
if it happens
catch the world off-guard

[Mach Two]

My analysis on a sound report from the DEBKAfile – posted on the thread:
Kim Jong-Il Dead - S. Korea on DefCon 3

1. Elements of the North Korean army or its security services could go head to head for a power grab in Pyongyang, potentially sparking civil strife in this enigmatic nation of 24 million.

They could very well do this and Kim Jong Um knows it. That is exactly we he needs to grab power immediately and then get his generals and his people busy on a distraction.

2. To keep any such violence from spilling across its borders, China may send troops into North Korea bringing similar action from Seoul, possibly with US backing. China has a large North Korean expatriate minority which respects Pyongyang rather than Beijing and is therefore a source of unrest.China knows the few nukes NK has aren’t coming their way. Also they would look much better in the public eye if they didn’t get involved… …yet. Much better to wait until it’s all over and then wade in with a “solution” and grab NK for itself – to protect its population, clearly.
Of the US troops stationed for 58 years on the armistice lines between South and North, about 28,500 remain and could be involved in a conflict with the potential of exploding into another Korean War. The first war in the 1950s cost several armies more than a million lives.

Never. Obama it trying hard to extricate himself from all these issues so that the US voters see him as a peace-maker and as the guy that brought the troops home.

3. The big difference between then and now is that today North Korea has nuclear arms and there is no knowing at what point someone in Pyongyang may decide to use them.

I’ve told you that already.

4. A recent Pentagon situation paper estimates that if the Korean Peninsula descended into domestic anarchy and civil strife, the United States would be called on to raise an army of intervention numbering 400,000 soldiers, 100,000 more than the size of US forces fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan at the peak of those conflicts.

Their deficit is bigger than anyone’s. Mr Kim Jr knows that.

5. North Korea maintains thriving nuclear, military and technological relations with Iran and Syria. Hundreds of technicians and engineers, including nuclear and missile experts, have worked for years on their nuclear and missile programs.

And they will continue to do so. Syria needs all the friends it can get.
My estimate is sound.

[jamesdevice]

well also according to Debka
Syria has stationed Scuds on the Turkish border, some chemically armed
Has allegedly ordered 3 million gas masks
Has placed Russian anti-shipping missile on its coastline

Now, with the Russian fleet heading to the Eastern Med in time for Christmas, with Iran about to start naval war games including missile testing - probably including that new anti-ship ballistic missile and making increasingly belligerent noises in its press, and with the USA vacating Iraq the stage is set for a major three-front attack against the west.

First a drive by the North Koreans into the South, dragging in the the USA and Japan, and miring the USA army there
Next a drive by Iran across Shia-held Iraq creating a supply corridor to Syria, so threatening Israel, with the Russian holding the coastal "back door" closed.
Finally a direct assault by Iran into Afghanistan to displace the Western forces there. The FAR news agency this week printed what was basically a direct threat against the Afghani government for allowing the USA to fly drones into Iranian air space
If the Pakistanis were to join in as well, then we'd be ****ed. Pakistan closed the two overland routes into Afghanistan last week, so in the event of a retreat our forces would have to fight their way out along the Khyber pass and then take over a port
The only alternative overland route is into the Caucasus states- where Russia will be waiting.

Mach two - I think you have seriously underestimated the problem

If that mad bitch in Argentina decides to play silly buggers then we Brits are going to have a very hard time defining priorities


PS - I wonder how much the event which caused the Pakistanis to close the overland routes - the shelling of the border post - was contrived by them to create an excuse to close the passes to the coalition forces? By the time of any attack the passes will have been closed for three / four weeks with corresponding reductions in supplies

[500N]

James

After reading your post, I am so glad I am going away for 2 weeks and be out of contact with the world, except for a 2 day old out of date newspaper.
.

[jamesdevice]

"except for a 2 day old out of date newspaper."
Not for reading I presume?

[500N]

James

"except for a 2 day old out of date newspaper."
Not for reading I presume?"

Yes, we sometimes don't get it until 2 days after the day it is released.

They aren't that backward out there, however I must admit it was only last year they built the old Shower block, previously it was stand under a shower rose connected to a 40 foot high water tank !!!

[Willard Whyte]

I think there may be a fault with my 'phones that lasts a couple of weeks.

[hval]

Mach Two,

You are incorrect re your intel reference assassination of Kim Jong II by CIA. The assassination was actually an SO13 led project aimed at persuading North Korea to pay Congestion Charges for London, along with all their parking fines.

[jamesdevice]

M2
its been over an hour and no real flaming so far.. I was expecting the treatment SAMXXV got at least. I think the lack of response suggests that some people are taking it seriously

[Mach Two]

Yeah, well. You never know. Worth a try.

But you'll all be surprised when it all kick off. Then we'll see what you've got to say!

[Lonewolf_50]

I have my Kevlar, lead lined umbrella up.

Why are you folks so worried?

[hval]

Mach Two,

My apologies. I should have explained my thoughts without jesting.

I disagree with your analysis. China do not want North Korea to carry out any attacks. Why would they? China are winning/ have won the economic war already.

I would agree that North Korea might demonstrate their military might at some stage, but not currently. The previous military attacks may well have been the Korean Military making a power play for internal political reasons.

I believe that we have issues of a higher priority elsewhere.

[Mach Two]

Yeah, but you can't trust them, hval. If NK is there for the taking, they'll be only to happy to have it. Why are they still so interested in Taiwan?

Still expanding into Africa and all over Europe. What about Vietnam? The writing's on the wall.

Hang on, what higher prioities? Do you mean the Olympics?

[jamesdevice]

China won't be seen to be directly involved in all this - they have too much to lose internationally in terms of status. All they need to do is continue to provide infrstructure support to North Korea and Iran. Thats where both countries obtain their military technology from (and so does Syria indirectly)
All three countries are effectively Chinese proxies and will kick off a combined war, while Russia will support Syria - as it will distract Turkey and Nato from interference in the Caucasus

[jamesdevice]

Christmas Day is when it kicks off
The Russians will be keen - Putin needs something to restore his popularity (a Falklands style show of strength in the Med should do that) and he needs to distract his population from the fact that the Russian banks are effectively insolvent

[rh200]

This threads getting really cool, havn't had this much fun since reading the UFO conspirocy threads.

Looks like I've left my run a bit late to get me a little patch in the south east of WA to hunker down for armageddon:{ Oh well Christmas day sounds like it will be interesting.

[rh200]

Actually I'll add a little extra, a little birdy tells me the Chinese will take advantage of the fact that every ones all interventioned out to reclaim Taiwan.

[jamesdevice]

would explain that "new" "Chinese" carrier at sea!
Actually it'll be the first time both of those Russian carriers will have been at sea at the same time

[500N]

M2
Stop chopping and changing, you are all over the place.

I might have to nail you down to an action that will occur on a certain date
and put some money on it :O

[jamesdevice]

well you have my view
I never bet though - against my religion.

[500N]

North Korea has fired off two "new" longer range missiles.

A warm up or chest beating ?

[hval]

Mach Two,

The Olympics are a problem, but Iran is a larger problem. They are attempting to control as much of the Middle East as possible including Afghanistan and the total destruction of Israel. These attempts include terrorism, political and indirect attacks on all countries in the region. Iran are increasing their influence within Pakistan for instance by saying that their common enemy is the USA. You will be aware of much else I haven't written as it is common knowledge and has been written about here (i.e. many of the Middle East problems are down to Iran). Russia are interested as it weakens their foes as well as introducing an area the US is denied for use, and loses control of POL supplies from the region. The Straits of Hormuz are currently not of great interest to Iran, but will be if fighting does commence.

Iran have been, and continue to, sponsor terrorism globally. This includes targeting the Olympics. China spent $70 billion on security, Greece spent $14.8 billion. The UK is spending a bit over $1 billion. What does that tell you? Having said that the UK already has a large complex security infrastructure in place, but not $69 billion worth.

On top of that Iran are planning/ carrying out cyber attacks against the United States from Mexico (and perhaps Cuba). Funding for the Cyber Warfare is about $1 billion. Iran are also increasing their influence in South America. This also includes money laundering and drug trafficking activities by terrorist groups supported by Iran. In Venezuela there are Iranian military camps organised through Iranian financed mosques within Venezuela.

China will not be happy if Iran gain control of Afghanistan as they have invested vast sums in mineral extraction in Afghanistan. This amount of money is increasing. China are happy with much else as the US focus is mainly on the Middle East (including Afghanistan). China wants Taiwan and South Korea, but realises that both these countries are wealthy, so has to be careful on how it brings them in to its sphere of influence.

One of the few things Iran can not be blamed for are the Somali pirate problems.

I could write a rather long report on Iran and the security issues, but PPRuNe is not the place for it.

I forgot to add; due to the way the death of Kim Jong II was announced, there will be a peaceful transition to the new "Glorious Leader Kim Jong-un". This does not preclude localised attacks on South Korean assets (as in the sinking of the Cheonan), nor military posturing such as the firing of missiles.

[Mach Two]

That's exactly right, hval. Good analysis. Did you know that the USA has spent $169 million on producing 8 enormous bunker-busting bombs. It looks like they are going to be secretly given to Israel to use in the next few weeks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

As Israel lacks the capability carry a 15 ton bomb across the middle east, the failing Obama administration will use B2's to deliver exactly 8 conventional on the Iranian underground facilities before Xmas. The Israelis will claim that they did it, but we will know it was the US.

[jamesdevice]

but hval - we don't have a dissident population like China has, so we shouldn't need that level of protection

[hval]

@ Jamesdevice,

we don't have a dissident population like China

The United Kingdom is an exporter of terrorism. This is why the USA has such strict security on people coming from the UK. Think of UK mainland attacks such as Glasgow Airport or the 7th of July 2005 London bombings. Also think of the fact that the UK is under severe stress from the economy, with many dissatisfied indigents. Then there is the issue with border security being a total failure, leaving us with somewhat porous borders that are perfect for allowing undesirable persons in to the country.

I would also like to raise how difficult it is for UK security to control any one or any thing within the UK. The laws do not allow for it.

[hval]

Mach Two,

I am aware of the weapons. The problem for Israel is that they are outnumbered both in man power and in weapons. Quality is important, but as has been proven time & time again numbers count. Also look at the Asymmetrical Warfare carried out in Iraq and Afghanistan (as well as elsewhere). You only need a few people with home made bombs to cause massive costs, militarily, monetarily and politically.

[Mach Two]

OMG, just had an int briefing. Looks like there a 198 unidentified airborne tracks heading north out of Israel towards the Syrian border. US are diverting an E3 to a northern orbit to get an update. Have to dash now. Will update you all as soon as I can.

P.S. keep this under your hats, it's very classified. Getting funny looks for rushing out of the briefing to get in the interweb. Must be careful...

[BEagle]

Mach Two, I have to say that your recent posts, together with those from jamesdevice and SAMXXV, have really dragged PPRuNe down to a shadow of its former self.

There is a place for humour - but continuous puerile nonsense is ruining the once-proud Military Aircrew forum....

[500N]

BEagle
This whole thread went to pot a long time ago, not just recently.:O

.

[Mach Two]

Ouch.

Welcome back, SAM. You are reasonably sane. Actually, your last post makes more sense than anything I've seen here in days. But that was JD and hval messing about. I told them not to, but they wouldn't listen.

Now, how do you think the Israeli strike going to happen, SAM? What assets, what weapons and how about the Iranian air defences?

[glojo]

Can't we all accept the World is not going to end.... Old people die, Presidents, Kings and Queens get deposed or replaced.

North Korean President dies... North Korea fears outside forces will take advantage, they step up security. Adjoining countries see the movements and instantly fear a possibility of an invasion... They raise their security. We then see other countries watching this activity and they in turn start hitting the panic\reaction button. Has this ever happened before? Think President Kennedy.

Why not just sit back, let North Korea mourn and replace its leader... Simples

[500N]

Why not ask China to make sure NK doesn't do anything stupid.

I believe they used to have some sway over NK, not so sure how much any more
for small things but I would still think they would stop NK doing anything really stupid -like invade SK.

[hval]

@ Sam XXV,

If you are sensible you do not "shoot to kill". You aim at the legs/upper body. You WOUND - not kill

That little Cold War tit bit has been proven to be a fallacy (that's the polite way to put it) in Iraq and in Afghanistan. You shoot to kill.

[jamesdevice]

the Iranians and North Koreans are going to attack first
Christmas day

[jamesdevice]

500N:
"North Korea has fired off two "new" longer range missiles."

Is that the first sign of the much - rumoured "Lon Dong weapon?"

[Mach Two]

JD, I'm sure it will be North Korea first, but Iran? What about the BLUs?

Think Iranians first, SAM? Do you think they cave the capability ready yet?

[jamesdevice]

BIiggle said:
"that your recent posts..... have really dragged PPRuNe down to a shadow of its former self"
Really? Didn't think that was possible. Mosts of the posts on this forum are from out of date retirees burying their heads in the sand about current threats, who just want to talk about high jinks, daft stunts and burning pianos
Anyway all we are doing is pointing out a Very Serious Threat to the Western World

[Mach Two]

In a very serious and highly analytical fashion.

[hval]

@ Jamesdevice

the Iranians and North Koreans are going to attack first

North Korea is not going to start any war.

Iran will not start open warfare; they already are at war via terrorism, Cyber Warfare, political influence and their support of the bad people in other countries. Iran know that at some stage some country will get very miffed with what they are already doing and will carry out an attack on Iran. Iran then have the right to commence open warfare on that nation and whom so ever they decide supported the country that carried out that initial attack.

[jamesdevice]

I really disagree
the timing for both is now. There is a window of opportunity for both countries if they attack BEFORE Israel gets any bunker busters

[Courtney Mil]

Jamesdevice,

I'm an out of date retiree with my head partially buried in the sand about current threats. I just want to talk about high jinks and daft stunts and I have certainly burned pianos. Sorry if I've dragged you all down.

Your postulations were quite amusing, though.

Courtney

[Courtney Mil]

And "window of opportunity". Where have I heard that before?

[ORAC]

Two can play at that game (and from the reported explosions of late, already are).

Israel forms corps for strategic strikes (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/12/19/Israel-forms-corps-for-strategic-strikes/UPI-28051324328870/)

TEL AVIV, Israel, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- Amid deepening tension between Iran and its principal adversaries -- the United States and Israel -- the Jewish state has formed a Special Forces command to carry out strategic strikes deep inside hostile territory. The formation of the new command indicates that Israel's military envisages long-range, largely clandestine and multi-arm operations will have a much higher priority than the conventional operations that have been the main focus of military activity for decades.

Israeli defense officials say the elite new corps' area of operations includes the "third circle," a term that usually encompasses the Persian Gulf and the Horn of Africa. Indeed, the new formation, officially known in Hebrew as the Depth Corps, has been popularly dubbed the "Iran Command" so ingrained has the Islamic Republic become in the national psyche as the main existential threat to the Jewish state because of its alleged quest for nuclear weapons.

The Depth Corps is the equivalent of the U.S. Special Operations Command that oversaw the clandestine operation that led to the assassination of Osama bin Laden in May and will have the authority to initiate special operations. It's the brainchild of the recently appointed chief of the general staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz and Maj. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, until recently head of the Northern Command along the border with Lebanon. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Israel's most decorated soldier and a legendary Special Forces leader, green-lighted the project.

The corps will integrate the Israeli military's various special units such as the elite Sayeret Matkal of Military Intelligence, the air force's Shaldaq and the navy's Flotilla 13, coordinating their operations and their unique specialties to an unprecedented degree. Sayeret Matkal was commanded by Barak in the 1970s. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, then an army captain, was one of his officers. They both participated in the May 9, 1972, storming of a hijacked Boeing 707 of Sabena Belgian Airlines at Lod Airport outside Tel Aviv -- now Ben Gurion International -- held by Black September Palestinian militants to free the 100 hostages aboard the jet.

The new corps will be commanded by Maj. Gen. Shai Avitai, a former Sayeret Matkal chief and a close associate of Barak.

Israel's military objectives are primarily focused on Iran at this time, with threats to unleash pre-emptive strikes, primarily using fighter-bombers and ballistic missiles, against the Islamic Republic's nuclear infrastructure. But it's also concerned with clandestine arms shipments, mainly from Iran, funneled through the Red Sea into Egypt via Sudan. At least two long-range strikes were reportedly carried out in January 2010 against arms convoys moving north through the Sudanese desert.

But the formation of the new command follows major gains by Islamist radicals in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya amid the Arab Spring pro-democracy uprisings that began in January. The seismic shifts in the Arab world's geopolitical landscape, with a savage confrontation under way in Syria between the minority Alawite regime of President Bashar Assad and its opponents that could produce another Islamist-dominated power, have radically altered Israel's security perspective. One consequence could be the collapse of Israel's landmark 1979 peace treaty with Israel, lynchpin of its political, economic and defense policies for 30 years.

"The establishment of the new corps has been under consideration for the past decade … but was repeatedly pushed back due to more pressing issues," The Jerusalem Post observed. "What has changed is the nature of the threat that Israel faces, which requires elite units to operate far from Israel and deep within enemy territory."

The Post's military correspondent, Yaakov Katz, said that, Iran aside, likely targets for the Depth Corps is Lebanon and Syria. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria's military between them have tens of thousands of missiles aimed at Israel. A prime target would be the Bekaa Valley in northwestern Lebanon, Hezbollah's heartland where it has deployed missiles capable of hitting just about anywhere in Israel.

In the 2006 war between Hezbollah and the Jewish state, the Israeli air force knocked out most of the medium-range missiles Hezbollah had in the Bekaa within the first 36 hours of combat. In the next conflict, which many in the region believe is inevitable, knocking out the more advanced missile Hezbollah now has will mean boots on the ground.

[Mach Two]

If you were to create a Special Forces Command to undertake a specific, clandestine (by nature) task behind the lines of a specific country, would you announce it to the world?

Anyway, good spot, Orac. So what's your take on what happens next?

[ORAC]

Anyway, good spot, Orac. So what's your take on what happens next? Cynically?

Smuggle a warhead into Iran (using non-western fissile material) and plant it near one of their main development site and set it off at a time when it can be made to look like an Iranian accident.

No missiles fired so no-one can conclusively point the finger elsewhere. Any claims will look like an excuse for incompetence.

Destruction of a good part of the Iranian programme sites and engineers.

Maximum internal anger and unrest at the government at the loss of life, hopefully leading to regime change.

And for any other neighbour tempted to develop their own weapons (as several are doing in response to Iran), a sobering lesson in the consequences of either failure.......or success.

But then, I'm a cynic. :cool:

[jamesdevice]

only flaw in that would be obtaining non-western fissile material
Not so easy now as it would have been a few years ago when the USSR was disintegrating

[500N]

The US will have some hidden away somewhere they can provide,
as they usually do when they want to incriminate someone !

[ORAC]

The US will have some hidden away somewhere they can provide Been lots of it available (http://cryptome.org/eyeball/bn-350/bn-350.htm) for the last 20-30 years, if you knew where to look. I'm sure more than one nation took the opportunity to put some in a safe place - swapping with their own if necessary to make the sums add up. :hmm:

[Halton Brat]

I have only had time to speed-read this thread, but it seems that there is a clear & present danger that Israel plans to attack North Korea, exploiting the turmoil created by the demise of the Dear Leader.

I intend to pen a billet-doux to the Telegraph forthwith.

Shocking.

HB

[Mach Two]

You know, HB's got a point there. We worked all that out and it never occurred to us to tell anyone!

[jamesdevice]

I thought this is where the Times, Telegraph and Gruaniad got all their military news? Thats why their reporting is so accurate

[Willard Whyte]

The US will have some hidden away somewhere they can provide,
as they usually do when they want to incriminate someone !

The problem is that the material in question normally has a unique signature, and can be traced to a particular processing plant.

[500N]

Willard

I know, which is why I said what I said. If someone, ie the US, is going to incriminate someone else using Isotopes or some other Nuclear material, I was hinting that they have some "hidden away" meaning some that has come from known source that was stolen but can't be traced back to the US - or Israel !!! LOL

Conspiracy theories begin.

[Courtney Mil]

Ah yes. That was revealed to us in another Clancy book and movie, wasn't it? So, very probably true. But, when to the nuclear inspectors have the time or cability to analyse samples of nuclear material to determine its origin. Maybe it does simply balance the books.

[APG63]

I think you guys may have lost the plot while I've been away. It's taken me hours to read all the new posts. Can we have a unified judgement on what going to happen? I need to know because I want to make my Christmas plans.

BEagle and SAM, what are your views?

[jamesdevice]

Christmas day

The North Koreans attack the south, dragging in the USA forces
Iran launches a high-speed tank strike into central Iran,which is predominantly Shia and sympathetic to Iran. They keep going into Syria, back the Assad regime, reach the Syrian Coast where they link up with the Russian fleet, who protect their flank from the sea, The Turkish border is condoned with chemical weapons to prevent Nato forces approaching through Kurdistan
Once Syria is secure and the Russians have a safe base, they move to Suez and blockade the north end of the canal. Simultaneously the Iranian fleet, already on exercises blockade the southern end of the Red Sea and close the Straits of Hormuz with mines and missiles
While all this is going on, Iran systematically targets all allied bases in the middle east with rockets - possibly chemical armed - and starts a slow infantry assault into Afghanistan
Pakistan closes its airspace to coaliton forces and seals the two passes.
Russian forces move into Khazakstan in line with mutual aid agreements and close the road north out of Afghanistan. Russia takes another poke at Georgia at the same time, just for fun

Result?
Total closure of oil routes to the west.
Isolation of Israel
An army mired down in Korea, struggling to repel the commie forces
A second army trapped in Afghanistan whose only escape route it to fight to the Pakistani coast and take control of a sea port. Even then, the closure of Suez will limit the available shipping to lift them off
Economic isolation of the Gulf states who will be forced to capitulate to Iran
The big question is Saudi -if the Iranians can create a Shia uprising then its possible the ruling al-Saud family could be overthrown. However thats not certaiin

An option is that the Iranians overthrow the Assad regime and replace it with a puppet government. Same result - Iranian control of the Mediterranean coast

[glojo]

JD.... You've been at my medication!

Tom Clancy needs to watch out as you might be 'out plotting' that man :ok::)

[jamesdevice]

the problem is, with the drawdown of forces in Iraq,and the problems Pakistan has been giving the coalition forces over passage in the last few weeks, its all too believable.
I really do believe that something like this is feasible. Its just a matter of whether they are mad enough.

And as someone said earlier, with the USA tied up with two major shooting wars, you could throw in a forced "reconciliation" between China and Taiwan, coupled with a Chinese move into the Spratleys


and now ... really pushing things to the logical extreme...if Egypt were to fall to an Iranian fundamentalist government....

[500N]

APG
A whole heap of posters have forgotten to take their medication over the last week:rolleyes:

Re "
BEagle and SAM, what are your views?"

I think Beagle doesn't like it and that the thread should go to Jetblast.:O

[jamesdevice]

The really big question of course is whether a preemptive strike can be made against Iran. The difficulty there is that any attacking aircraft would have to transit Iraq or Syria. Now that the USA has withdrawn from Iraq, that route has become less certain.Syria would have been an option IF the Arab League & Turkey had managed to impose a UN no-fly zone over Syria. However Russia effectively vetoed that idea.
So any attacking aircraft may have to fight their way in, and back out again.

[ORAC]

The difficulty there is that any attacking aircraft would have to transit Iraq or Syria. Over Jordan & Saudi is pretty direct - and neither is likely to object. :cool:

[rh200]

the problem is, with the drawdown of forces in Iraq,and the problems Pakistan has been giving the coalition forces over passage in the last few weeks, its all too believable.

There is a big difference between believable, possible and the probability of it happening. Mind you I wonder how many major "issues" have happened in the past because the circumstances where thought unlikely, hence take advantage or complacency or attention else where.

[Willard Whyte]

A whole heap of posters have forgotten to take their medication over the last week

I've been rather overdoing my 'medication' of late.

[Mach Two]

There is a big difference between believable, possible and the probability of it happening

It's not always the expected that ends up happening. Look back in history and see how many events, wars or ops weren't seen coming. Look through JD's Christmas day scenario and count up how many of the events listed COULD happen (probably not all at once, although I'm not betting).

Back on the meds now, but still overdoing it. Hey it's Christmas!!!

[500N]

M2

Between you, Jamesdevice, Glojo, Courtney ad one or two others,
I think you could keep quite a few Psychiatrists in work ;)

Have enjoyed the last few days watching some SAM type
humour:O:ok:

[Mach Two]

That's funny, my Boss recently said something like that too. I'll start to get my sensible hat back on. Didn't mean to upset the locals.

[ORAC]

Opinion - Israel became convinced several months ago that the US administration has absolutely no intention of attacking Iran and would make every effort to stop Israel doing so. Hence their recent refusal (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8886543/Israel-refuses-to-tell-US-its-Iran-intentions.html)to agree that they would keep the US informed of their plans.

The recent flurry of statements from Panetta and Dempsey et al are an attempt to convince them otherwise.

But that ship has already sailed........ :hmm:

US military 'ready to engage in a conflict with Iran' (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8969551/US-military-ready-to-engage-in-a-conflict-with-Iran.html)

[Mach Two]

So, maybe our mad rantings weren't so mad after all.

The key to that happening is in the opening paragraph.

...if President Barack Obama were to give the signal.

[OKOC]

I sincerely hope that no one from the tabloid press (or worse still Mossad) is reading this thread otherwise they are quite likely to "go to press--"SCOOP/BANG"!!) and ruin everyone's Festive Season you know what they are lik
e
.
.........aaaah

[glojo]

Between you, Jamesdevice, Glojo, Courtney ad one or two others,
I think you could keep quite a few Psychiatrists in work http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/wink2.gifAnd there's me thinking that you colonial types should be seen and not heard! :rolleyes::ok:

Why drink and drive when we can take pills and flyyyyyyy!!!

[randyrippley]

take pills and flyyyyyyy!!!
Stimulant Use in Extended Flight Operations (http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj97/spr97/cornum.html)

The use of amphetamines in U.S. Air ... [Aviat Space Environ Med. 1995] - PubMed - NCBI (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7661838)

"Of pilots who were surveyed, 65% used amphetamines during the deployment to the SWA AOR and/or during Operation Desert Storm."

Didn't realise it was that common

[randyrippley]

This is an interesting thread
Does anyone else have any thoughts for what action christmas and new year will bring?

[rh200]

Does anyone else have any thoughts for what action christmas and new year will bring?

I would think there's going to be a few blokes on this thread who are going to see action, the once or twice year type of action that the missus let's you have that is.:E

[randyrippley]

Fars News Agency :: Iran to Stage Naval Wargames Saturday (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007278342)

"Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said at a press conference on Thursday that the naval maneuvers dubbed Velayat 90 will start on Saturday and will cover an area stretching from the east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden.

According to Sayyari, this is the first time that Iran's Navy carries out naval drills in such a vast area.

He added the exercises will manifest Iran's military prowess and defense capabilities in the international waters, convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment among other objectives of the drills.

Rear Admiral Sayyari said that the newest missile systems and torpedoes will be employed in the maneuvers, adding that the most recent tactics used in subsurface battles will also be demonstrated in the maneuvers.

He also said that Iranian destroyers, missile-launching vessels, logistic vessels, drones and coastal missiles will also be tested."

[COCL2]

So how well does that fit the "it all kicks off on xmas day" theory??

Don't forget the Russians entered the Med today

[APG63]

convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment among other objectives of the drills.

Which translates as:

A desparate attempt to demonstrate an massive military capability, which really isn't that good and to show off how much hardware they've managed to acquire and/or keep alive through dogged determination.

Peace and Friendship? I'm not really sensing that.

Moreover, it is designed to send a clear message to the west that Iran can shut down the Persian Gulf and turn the oil tap off whenever they like.

Peace and Friendship.

P.S. Are there some people missing here?

[COCL2]

Yes, I believe there are a few involuntary absentees on this thread
Shame really as its the only topical discussion thread about actual military threats currently running

FARS reran that press release today, with slightly more detail
The key difference is they added:
"The exercises are bound to put Iranian warships close to vessels of the United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, which patrols some of the same waters, including the Strait of Hormuz."

Is that a threat? Or a heads up to the local population to expect trouble?
Remember FARS is effectively an agency of the Revolutionary Guards

[WE Branch Fanatic]

An open source warning (http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/12/noteworthy-message-traffic.html) regarding the Iranian exercises:

REPORTS FROM MARITIME FORCES AND COMMERCIAL MARITIME INTERESTS INDICATE CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DISRUPTION TO SHIPPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH FUTURE IRANIAN NAVAL EXERCISES. DURING PREVIOUS EXERCISES IRANIAN MARITIME FORCES CONDUCTED BOARDINGS AND INSPECTIONS OF MERCHANT SHIPS, INCLUDING THOSE FLAGGED TO EUROPEAN NATIONS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT IRAN WILL ATTEMPT TO CONDUCT BOARDINGS AND INSPECTIONS DURING EXERCISES BETWEEN DECEMBER 2011 AND MARCH 2012. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO IRANIAN TERRITORIAL WATERS.

[coldair]

From the US Office of Naval Intelligence ;


http://www.oni.navy.mil/Intelligence_Community/docs/iran_navy_forces.pdf

A report on Iran's Naval forces.

Note, this is a very large pdf. I suggest that you only open this if you want a very detailed report of their capabilities, possible intentions etc.

Makes fascinating reading though.

[APG63]

So, following all the interesting speculation in this thread and the ones on the Next Falklands and the Russian Naval deployment, is a picture emerging? The US are out of Iran, not talking (supposedly) to Israel, Iran about to blockade and harass shipping, Syria attacked with a massive bomb, South American states adding to pressure in the South Atlantic, our forces still embroilled in the sandpit, etc.

Separate threads that all add up to a very complex picture. Our masters are wondering where to look most closely and what to prepare for. They're probably thanking their lucky stars that we just had such a huge boost to befence spending to ensure we have the resources to cope with whatever comes next.

[Finningley Boy]

Mr Hammond is talking about getting more for less. So expect less!:ouch:

FB:)

[Wrathmonk]

Separate threads that all add up to a very complex picture. Our masters are wondering where to look most closely and what to prepare for.They're probably thanking their lucky stars that we just had such a huge boost to befence spending to ensure we have the resources to cope with whatever comes next.

Nah .... they will be far more glad for having the threats of these potential conflicts drawn to their attention with all the open source, unclassified information/intelligence and non-military opinion found here on PPRuNe. Without such sterling work the government, PJHQ, MOD et al couldn't even consider making a decision - I hope you are all remembered when it comes to the next honours list;):E

[Willard Whyte]

Without such sterling work the government, PJHQ, MOD et al couldn't even consider making a decision

I very much doubt the government will make a decision, until it's too late (if at all).

[manccowboy]

Leon Panetta, the secretary of defence, said this week that the US was prepared to step in to prevent Tehran realising its nuclear ambitions. He estimated that the country was only a year away from reaching its goal.
"The United States does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon," he said. "That is a red line for us and that is a red line for the Israelis. If we have to do it we will do it. If they proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding in developing a nuclear weapon then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop them. There are no options that are off the table."


Diplomacy = Failed
Sanctions = Failed
Direct military action = Definitely

Obama wont be able to put this off until after the elections IMHO

[cazatou]

As today is the nominated date of attack by SAM does anyone have an updated TOT?

[COCL2]

as this is the thread which had much of the wild predictive stuff in, this post fits here
You may have thought SAMs predictions were off the wall, take a read of this Russian view.
2012 The Year We Entered the Tunnel - English pravda.ru (http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/13-01-2012/120227-year_2012-0/)

[cockletwo]

Content deleted. Mods

[StopStart]

Blimey, well done. You managed to find an article on the Internet written by a lunatic: good effort. I'll see if I can dig out the one that detailed how we got captured UFOs from Lyneham to the underground city at Corsham via the secret tunnels. That's also about as relevant.

I can see why Tourist is so exasperated with this place..... :hmm:

[BEagle]

Rudloe Manor the "focal point" for UFO reports | Nettleden.com (http://www.nettleden.com/news/raf-rudloe-maonr-ufo-focal-point/)

:8

Ministry of Defence | Freedom of Information | Publication Scheme | Search Publication Scheme | UFO Reports in the UK (http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/FreedomOfInformation/PublicationScheme/SearchPublicationScheme/UfoReportsInTheUk.htm)

.

[500N]

BEagle

The conspiracy theorists obviously had a field day with that place,
all because it was the central location for collection of UFO sightings !:ugh:

They could be a bit more original.

[Andu]

Obama wont be able to put this off until after the elections IMHOTiming could prove to be interesting here. The Iranians are said to be "about a year" off from having a nuke up and running. November - (and more importantly, the two months between November and the possible inauguration of a new President) - are also "about a year" away. If Obama does prevaricate - (which, with his record to date, is quite a distinct possibility) - and if he were to lose the election**, the USA could find itself in the unfortunate situation of having to make some very hard decisions re Iran during the changeover of administrations - the equivalent of having to win a Moto GP race while you've still got your training wheels on.

I don't think any of this is lost on the Iranians.


**an outside chance, IMHO, not because Obama doesn't richly deserve to be rolled, but more because of the Republicans' inability to field a credible candidate to oppose him.

[500N]

SAMXXV

Not everyone who went to a public school is an idiot :O :ok:

[Tourist]

SAM

What are you talking about?
What has this to do with the subject?
Why are you still posting after promising not to?

Why should a civilian not be paid extra for serving in a war zone? All private guys expect extra for dodgy places, so why not public?

[rmac]

@uck me !!!

The guy at Pravda.ru makes SAM look almost sane.

[jamesdevice]

time to bring this thread back to life again as the Iranians have finally come up with an explanation for the november explosion

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn

TEHRAN (FNA)- Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said that the last November blast at an IRGC center in the vicinity of Tehran took place as the center was conducting research on solid fuel for satellite carries.
The November 12 blast at the IRGC center in the village of Bidgoneh, in the vicinity of Malard in the Northern Alborz province, some 40 kilometers to the West of the capital, killed 17 people including General Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam, known as the father of the Islamic Republic missile technology.
Answering a question about the impact of the blast on the IRGC missile projects and capability, the IRGC commander said, "It was just a part of our missile research program that was hit by the accident. The accident could only delay our research for 6 months and now the program is back on."
"What was done in there pertained to solid fuel for satellite carriers and not defensive (military) missiles," Jafari added.
Following the blast, a series of the news reports in the Western media tried to link Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, to the November 12 blast.
Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces Major General Hassan Firouzabadi rejected the western media reports on Israel or US involvement in the blast.
Firouzabadi also said that Iran's missile projects have remained unaffected

[Lonewolf_50]

james, thank you.

Often seems better to attribute accidents to error than malfeasance, unless the evidence leads one to the latter line of inquiry. :ok:

[Just This Once...]

Sam, nobody wants a war. The region has enough issues as it is.

[glojo]

Here we go again:

By the rhetoric being postulated by the Israeli PM in the past 72 hours, I would say that a joint Israeli/US supported strike is imminent.....

https://encrypted-tbn2.google.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTqelM21XCO-XGImJx2yrtqCuEsOrkesMs4TUNRSxupnumLKe2AlQ

[500N]

Glojo

I was thinking exactly the same thing.


SAM
Re "By the rhetoric being postulated by the Israeli PM in the past 72 hours, I would say that a joint Israeli/US supported strike is imminent....."


I am tempted to put some more money up against that statement if you care for another wager ?

Do you care to define "imminent" ?
.

[Lonewolf_50]

SAM:

More noise, no substance.

Please give it a rest.

[500N]

SAM

I'll wager the equivalent of $20 - $50 (you choose) that no strike by a combined Israeli / US force will occur before the end of September - Midnight on 30th.

Money to charity of choice which for me will be one that support UK troops
either here in Aus or the UK.

[Milo Minderbinder]

this from the Jerusalem Post Expert: US rejection of red line... JPost - Iranian Threat - News (http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=285444) would rather suggest theres too much of a gap between Israel and the O'bama administration for a combined attack to happen at present.
However of course it could be part of an elaborate plot to give the USA plausible deniability in the event of a raid.
SAM - what sort of timescale were you thinking of? "Imminent" is one of those variable terms that means different things to different people. I think most others assume you mean the next couple of weeks - is that your intention?

[jamesdevice]

Strange post on the FARS website today, basically another dose of posturing
Fars News Agency :: Iranian Army Warns Enemy of All-Inclusive, Crushing Response to Aggression (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9106241160)

But why the emphasis on 21st September and their "Sacred Defence Week"?
Do you think they are trying to draw parallels between the timing of the attack by Iraq and any possible Israeli attack? SAM - is that what you were thinking?

[Milo Minderbinder]

SAM
you don't want to take 500N's money then?

[500N]

Once bitten, twice shy ?

I must admit it too a bit og goading to get him to bite last time !


Has he come back onto this thread since he threw the grenade in ?