ILikeToGetAround
16th Nov 2011, 07:38
Hi all,
I've been gazing into the crystal ball of how the Qantas long-haul fleet will pan out over the next five to ten years. Just by way of background, I work as a transport planner (not for QF) and deal quite extensively with fleet planning.
What we know
Now that we know SYD-HKG will continue using long-haul equipment, there is sufficient information to draw up the following on what we can safely assume will happen:
http://davidkeating.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/qf2014lh1.jpg?w=500&h=354
A few things stand out here:
Some flights with F today will lose it; QF's proposed fleet of 14 A380s is insufficient to cover existing First Class flights.
There will be less "slack" in the long-haul fleet once B747 reduced to 9. This may result in reduced punctuality, although current long-haul flights have long layovers at LHR and LAX.
No new long-haul routes until new long-haul aircraft come online.
It's fairly obvious that A380s 13 and 14 will be delivered in a 'standard' configuration to the rest of the A380 fleet.
The speculation
We know that there are not enough A380s to cover today's existing B747 F class flights; some will need to move to a 3 class operation. How do you see this panning out?
Specifically, Alan Joyce reports that DFW is performing strongly. Do you think it's likely that a four class A380 will be deployed on this route? Do any pilots know how extensive the payload restrictions are between DFW-BNE and whether they would justify an A380 on this route from an economic perspective? Yields are probably decent - I can never seem to pick up a cheap fare on this flight and have to travel via LAX.
Other routes strike me (without having seen the data) as requiring an F cabin. For example, the daily QF107 connecting to New York would be an odd one to reduce to a 3-class plane because United operates First, but this seems to be a necessary outcome with the proposed fleet size.
Will there be enough frames to cover maintenance in light of the numbers I've posted? There appears to be virtually no slack in the long-haul fleet. What proportion of a 23 plane fleet is needed out for maintenance at any one time?
Link in full: Qantas A380s to Hong Kong and future deployment of A380/B747 fleet | I like to get around (http://davidkeating.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/qantas-a380s-to-hong-kong-and-future-deployment-of-a380b747-fleet/)
I've been gazing into the crystal ball of how the Qantas long-haul fleet will pan out over the next five to ten years. Just by way of background, I work as a transport planner (not for QF) and deal quite extensively with fleet planning.
What we know
Now that we know SYD-HKG will continue using long-haul equipment, there is sufficient information to draw up the following on what we can safely assume will happen:
http://davidkeating.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/qf2014lh1.jpg?w=500&h=354
A few things stand out here:
Some flights with F today will lose it; QF's proposed fleet of 14 A380s is insufficient to cover existing First Class flights.
There will be less "slack" in the long-haul fleet once B747 reduced to 9. This may result in reduced punctuality, although current long-haul flights have long layovers at LHR and LAX.
No new long-haul routes until new long-haul aircraft come online.
It's fairly obvious that A380s 13 and 14 will be delivered in a 'standard' configuration to the rest of the A380 fleet.
The speculation
We know that there are not enough A380s to cover today's existing B747 F class flights; some will need to move to a 3 class operation. How do you see this panning out?
Specifically, Alan Joyce reports that DFW is performing strongly. Do you think it's likely that a four class A380 will be deployed on this route? Do any pilots know how extensive the payload restrictions are between DFW-BNE and whether they would justify an A380 on this route from an economic perspective? Yields are probably decent - I can never seem to pick up a cheap fare on this flight and have to travel via LAX.
Other routes strike me (without having seen the data) as requiring an F cabin. For example, the daily QF107 connecting to New York would be an odd one to reduce to a 3-class plane because United operates First, but this seems to be a necessary outcome with the proposed fleet size.
Will there be enough frames to cover maintenance in light of the numbers I've posted? There appears to be virtually no slack in the long-haul fleet. What proportion of a 23 plane fleet is needed out for maintenance at any one time?
Link in full: Qantas A380s to Hong Kong and future deployment of A380/B747 fleet | I like to get around (http://davidkeating.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/qantas-a380s-to-hong-kong-and-future-deployment-of-a380b747-fleet/)