Qantas+Pilot Shortage in Asia=Risk of Failure

[fishers.ghost]

Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
QANTAS plans for Asian expansion may be headed for turbulence, with US aerospace giant Boeing warning of a mounting shortage of pilots and technicians in the Asia-Pacific.

Boeing predicted this week that the region would require 182,300 new pilots and 247,400 new technicians in the Asia-Pacific region in the next two decades.
Much of that demand will be in Jetstar's prime target, China, which will need 72,700 pilots and 108,300 technicians.
The Oceania region, which includes Australia, will need 13,600 pilots and 15,600 technicians.
Boeing says there are already indications demand for travel and industry growth in the Asia-Pacific is outstripping the supply of pilots and technicians.
"The signs of a global pilot shortage are mounting as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets," it says.
"Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints."
Boeing's flight services chief customer officer Roei Ganzarski told the CAPA Centre for Aviation that some airlines had grounded or reduced flights, including grounding new planes, because of the shortage.
Asked whether the shortage was affecting its plans, a Jetstar spokeswoman agreed that its fast regional growth meant it had a strong need for suitably qualified pilots and it was currently recruiting 150 pilots in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Japan .
"We realise that it is hotly contested for pilots in this region and so we are also investing in the future," she said. "Last year we launched a cadet pilot program with two of the world's leading pilot training providers.
"This partnership represents a major investment by Jetstar in the region's future generation of highly trained airline pilots.
"The program complements our other pilot recruitment activity and will supply a number of our future requirements for pilots."
Mr Ganzarski said the industry needed to make a concentrated effort to get young people excited about careers in aviation. This included the use of mobile and online devices as well as a switch in emphasis from the number of flying hours to aptitude.
"We are competing for talent with alluring hi-tech companies and we need to do a better job showcasing our industry as a global, technological, multi-faceted environment where individuals from all backgrounds and disciplines can make a significant impact," he said.

[Fuel-Off]

QANTAS plans for Asian expansion may be headed for turbulence

Did Mr Creedy have to hand back his Chairman's lounge membership and iPad after that little tid bit? :E

Fuel-Off :ok:

[ohallen]

Mr Ganzarski said the industry needed to make a concentrated effort to get young people excited about careers in aviation

Well the smartest guys in the room have that under control don't they. Devalue the skills, drive down the wages, offer them relocation at their discretion, and generally piss them off by their sneaky and devious treatment through constant off shoring sham arrangements.

And that excludes alienating almost the entire workforce and a large proportion of once loyal customer base.

Well done everyone, give yourself another bonus.

[packrat]

How many CPLs have been issued in Australia in the last 12 months?

[astroboy55]

there's a mini (albeit short term) shortage at QF already....from the HOF blog, no more crew will be released on LWOP from the 400 or 330. Open time is crammed full of uncrewed trips, FO's have being doing SO pattern double shuttles, and the divisors for next roster on the 330 and 400 are rumoured to be 180....

so we've gone from 'we have too many pilots' to 'holy crap...we cant crew our trips!'

[neville_nobody]

Mr Ganzarski said the industry needed to make a concentrated effort to get young people excited about careers in aviation. This included the use of mobile and online devices as well as a switch in emphasis from the number of flying hours to aptitude.

This is going to an issue in Asia for various reasons.
1. There is no grass roots GA so people aren't going to have an interest in aviation in general.
2. Those who have the aptitude/education to be pilots usually face family/social pressure as flying isn't perceived a prestigious job. Being a banker or lawyer or something is considered a better job.
3. People on the whole don't drive cars so having the human/mechanical interaction is not common so therefore aptitude is going to limited on the whole.
4. Given that the local airlines pay for the entire cost of training I don't quite know what QF are thinking. I assume they think it can be run entirely with expats with a few rich kids as FO's.

[Gnadenburg]

They are going to need to attract a lot of DEC's. The money will need to be more than what they are paying their J* Captains in Australia.

[Keith Nash]

Mr Ganzarski said the industry needed to make a concentrated effort to get young people excited about careers in aviation. This included the use of mobile and online devices as well as a switch in emphasis from the number of flying hours to aptitude.

That has successfully been achieved by lowering the entry standards so that people who's other choice was "Stop Go Guy" for the local council, now has airline pilot as an alternative, that guy's pretty excited.

The only problem is he is still deciding whether being locked in an aluminium tube with a dozen or so 20 something women (as opposed to standing in the rain all day with a dozen or so toothless, bearded wife beaters) is worth the pay cut.

[watch your 6]

Pilotless aircraft.
Can't wait for the advertising for that innovation

[Zapatas Blood]

outfits like air asia and silkair dont seem to have problems attracting dec's.

[TANUA]

ZB

Really? J* Asia currently paying a "sign on" bonus to suitable Cadets (amount- I don't know) & DEC's $24,000 SD:oh:

[pigdriver]

z blood, airasia pay much less than jetstarasia and are having trouble getting crews. Jetstarasia now paying sign on bonus plus to get crews, and still having trouble to get the numbers they are after.

[KABOY]

Just wait till the MPL is recognised in more countries. It is in HKG now and will probably end up in SIN next.

Once that is up and running the LCC's will not have a pilot shortage problem, pilot attrition will be next to zero as their licences will be worthless when they leave.

Similar things are occurring in China with the CAAC suspending licences when pilots move to other carriers for up to 6 months, one solution towards solving the pilot problem.

[Icarus2001]

How many CPLs have been issued in Australia in the last 12 months?

From the thread about pilot salary decline...
YEAR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ATPL 373 ... 332 .... 378 ... 488 ... 521 .. 425 486

CPL 804 ...... 670 987 .... 1162 1352 ... 1453 1344



Once that is up and running the LCC's will not have a pilot shortage problem, pilot attrition will be next to zero as their licences will be worthless when they leave.
That will perhaps slow down the flow of pilots leaving once they have gained experience but it does nothing to answer the supply side. It does not make the job MORE attractive, if anything the opposite as your qualifications are less transportable. So young Lee Goh Hong or Sammarat Readalotofporn will probably find a better option.

[Silverado]

"Stop Go Guy" for the local council

You just failed the councils entrance exam. It would be the "STOP SLOW GUY":}

[Toolman101]

The Oceania region, which includes Australia, will need 13,600 pilots and 15,600 technicians.

Who's training these guys?:hmm:

[mattyj]

Most of those licenses are probably ttmra conversions from kiwi ones..

..I was one :o

[tubby one]

Not that it makes a lot of difference the real (by financial year) figures are:
2009/10 514
2008/09 589
2007/08 477
do not have the 2010/11 figures.

Of greater concern are these figures
2009/10 200
2008/09 172
2007/08 161
They are the NEW Grade 3's issued each year. Unless those figures doble we will not have the instructors to train the numbers we need.:uhoh:

[Luke SkyToddler]

Pilot shortage :hmm:

Was that a purple-polka-dotted pig I just saw flying past my window?

[Captain.Que]

Sure was
They tend to swarm at this time of year

[greenslopes]

When I started my training, 'Pilot shortage' was just round the corner...... that was 1986.
Here we are 2011 and the hopeful masses still bleeting bout this Pilot shortage.

Every time there's a looming pilot shortage up pops a Recession,bird flu,hike in oil prices etc,etc,etc.

Tel em e's dreemin!

Great job, I love the flying but thank goodness I didn't hold my breath waiting for the correction to T's & C's thanks to demand for Pilots and Engineers.

It's never going to happen.

[Mr Pilot 2007]

Pilot Shortage my a$$.

There are experienced jet Captains out of work, but cannot get a job because they are not rated on a particular aircraft. Nobody is willing to train you on a new type now.

The only positions available are shocking pay and conditions, plus pay $40,000 to get a job,
or go and live in Africa, Saudia Arabia, or China with little chance of ever getting a reasonably paid job with reasonable working conditions back in your home country.

I would never become an airline pilot now knowing what the pay and conditions are now and the fact I will likely have to live overseas until I retire.

Qantas may be short staffed now, but they are about to lay off pilots and recruit others in NZ or SIN on ****e salaries to replace them, albeit with a subsidiary airline.

Meanwhile ceos are giving themselves 2 million a year pay rises.

Who in there right mind would spend the huge $$ to train to be a pilot now, knowing you will have to shell out another $20,000-$60,000 later to get a job with a LLC and then more money later should you wish to change airlines (eg; to change basing, seek higher salary etc).

Contractors, tradesman, builders, etc, earn a much better wage than most pilots now, yet they dont work shift work and can get a job in any city they wish.

[notbelowminima]

Mr Pilot

Spot on!

NBM

[oicur12.again]

Mr pilot 2007

“…but cannot get a job because they are not rated on a particular aircraft.”

No, they cannot get a job unless they have experience on type, generally 500 hours.

“Nobody is willing to train you on a new type now.”

Some are. There are currently contracts for 744 or 767 skippers that pilots with other Boeing experience can apply for.

“The only positions available are shocking pay and conditions….”

Shocking. Really? There are jobs available right now in Asia for contractors that pay more then any airline in Australia is currently offering.

“….plus pay $40,000 to get a job”

None of the contractor jobs I know of require any such payment.

In fact, most of your post is rubbish.

[Shrike200]

No, actually he sounds about right.

'Pilot shortage' my ass, and as for 'attracting the youth', I merely have to mention what an airline pilots life is like to make sure the any youth I speak to who may have harboured some desire for this as a career swiftly change their mind. Like I always say - Great job, terrible career.

[Dreamflyer1000]

and with all the 'pilot shortage' and fresh airline bashing, what do the folks that have a fresh CPL do now?
For example, I attained my CPL in 2010, shelved the idea for a while, and now make 70+k per year driving heavy machinery... with not huge experience in aircraft now, and certainly none of it current, does one run from the 'dream' or continue doing just about anything else.
If i were to go chase that dream now, I would be looking at 20k to do a MEIR, PLUS a 30-40k pay cut... but to run from that, is a waste of 60k too...
Where is the attraction? how many others are in my position??? (not a poor me post, just asking. I have chosen at this stage to not look for flying work).

[bigbrother]

DF1000, the smartest words thus far. I'm seriously considering running away, but for me the temptation so far is to "make it big" lol. Yes there are guys out there doing the job and enjoying it for the most part and I say good luck to you. There's a bit of a burst going on at the moment, which will tease us just a bit more, chase the next job, and we will all move, move and move again, pay, pay and pay again. At the end of the day some are lucky, others, not so much,. Life is like a box of chocolate.

[Metro man]

There are experienced jet Captains out of work, but cannot get a job because they are not rated on a particular aircraft.

True, a 55 year old F28 Captain won't have jobs chasing him, but a 35 year old A320 Captain will.

Most pilots will go through a few different types during their career, even a 20 year old B787 F/O is not likely to be on that aircraft when he retires. Skills need to be updated to stay marketable or you fall behind.

Flexibility is the key to get ahead, sure you may have to spend a few $$ but you get it back in the end with increased salary.

QATAR Airways take non rated pilots as do Emirates. There was a job opening in Indonesia a few months back for B738 pilots, ratings on older B737 accepted if you paid a for the differences course. Jetstar NZ also looking

Get the job, do 1000 hours and you're very marketable.

Yes you may have to work abroad or commute but it beats unemployment. Not too many have the job they want, where they want, with the pay they would like.

[Shrike200]

Yes you may have to work abroad or commute but it beats unemployment.

But it doesn't beat another career in that case, if you have a decent choice. I've both commuted and worked abroad, and I can assure you it sucked. For me at least, many will have a different experience of course. This job is murderous on family life, which not all young people may realise/care about at first.

[Metro man]

But it doesn't beat another career in that case, if you have a decent choice.

True, but unfortunately flying is very specialized and a pilot in his forties is unlikely to make airline money for quite a long time if he switches careers. Qualifications need to be earned and experience gained before the $$ start appearing in useful amounts.

Selling real estate or opening a business have the possibility of decent income reasonably quickly IF you are successful.

Unless you are already qualified in another field with some recent experience it's going to be up hill all the way.

[Johnny_56]

Maybe a stupid point but Mr Creedy/Boeing says Ociania will need 13000 odd pilots over the next 20 years = 675 pilots/year. Apparently from the figures above we're already getting 1500 pilots a year... Doesnt sound like much of a shortage...:(

[KRUSTY 34]

Not sure about 1500 per year Johnny'. Remember there are pilots, and there are pilots. Now I'm no fan of our political system WRT the "ticker" shown by our pollies, but the recommendations of the Senate inquiry have yet to be debated in parliament.

As well, if airline managements persist in their almost pathological pursuit of driving down pilot's wages and conditions they will eventually kill the golden goose. Some say they have done it already. Others point out that there will always be a sufficient supply of wannabees willing to sacrifice anything for an aviation career. I reckon, given the modern age we live in, the numbers will only decline. Throw some political guts (or arse covering) into the mix, and the numbers required for future growth won't even come close.

We've all seen footage of the tsunami. Doesn't look much offshore, but when it reaches landfall, devastating!

Or, there might be another GFC! :ooh:

[notbelowminima]

The truth is if you don't have some experience on type you won't get the job. An associate of mine with considerable time but on a old jet (Boeing) has been unemployed for a year now as no one wants to know a pilot in his 40's without time on a new type or glass time. Doesn't matter if applying even for an FO job or offering to pay the training!!!! You can pay for as much training as you like but you still need hours on a new type under your belt.
Yes some employers (very few) will look at you and may employ you after considerable concessions(bond) but normally there is a huge reduction in a suitable family orientated lifestyle and that's only after fighting for a spot from a hundred or so others applying. Really these employers are a very small minority. Their ads may say otherwise but get to the nitty gritty,it's still the same old stuff. When their is no shortage, the wannabe is the bottom feeder.
From what i can gather is that been a pilot is getting to the point when one must think 'what the f*** do i wanna do this s*** for.
Who recommends been a pilot to your kids!!!! Be honest!

Happy flying above minima
NBM

[KRUSTY 34]

Not exactly sure what part of the world you're referring to NBM?

My company has just lost at least 10 drivers (non jet experienced, some in their 40's) to the likes of DJ and Jetstar, and they're just the tip of our particular iceberg!

Now the above carriers may not be everybody's best choice, but they are the major jet airline recruiters in this country. If truth be known, I reckon they'll struggle to find candidates for their planned expansions. Especially if the legislators step into the equation.

Perhaps your friend was being too choosy. Maybe he can afford to be?

[Stiff Under Carriage]

Krusty,

Don't discount the 7 Rex has just lost to the ATR over the last 6 months.

[KRUSTY 34]

Quite correct SUC.

Just the tip of the iceberg. :ouch: