pilot shortage

[positionalpor]

Demand for airline pilots set to soar - USATODAY.com (http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/story/2011/06/Demand-for-airline-pilots-set-to-soar/48661596/1)

[629bus]

QF boys, might be time to dust of the CV's?

[Mr. Hat]

Was that an advertisement?

QF SOs already joining Virgin.

[boocs]

"Market forces" as Mr.Tyler once said, may translate into better CoS'... (may)

b.

[stuckgear]

a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight. still haven't seen one ! :sad:

[sodapop]

Stuckgear (or mic as the case may be),

Doubt if you were around with the W. Bros, but if you were a qualified pilot in the early 1930's when United and the boys really started growing then I'll be you would have been in high demand. The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years). This was still before the 1978 deregulation act in the US (good or bad depending on if you were a pilot, passenger, or aircraft manufacturer) The 1980s was a seesaw battle of hiring and laying off with the startup of new airlines and their subsequent failures/mergers. Add in "gentlemen" such as Frank Lorenzo and the terms and conditions for pilots slowly started to degrade. Nearly the entire decade of the 1990's saw soaring pilot hiring in the States. (albeit the latter year hires ended up getting furloughed after some idiots flew into buildings in New York). This is where Fedex, UPS, and Southwest had enormous expansion. (that's what she said :O)

Therefore, I would submit that there have been many pilot shortages and good times of pilot hirings. Ask some of the A scalers who were hired in the late 80's/early 90's. I suppose that your view only goes back 10-15 years and/or that you've never lived or don't currently live in the US.

Those who ignore history are.....ah never mind.

[Tee Emm]

Therefore, I would submit that there have been many pilot shortages

Never in Australia, unfortunately. Traditionally there have always been far too many pilots for far few jobs and that will not change.

[stuckgear]

sodapop,

i guess you missed the element of sarcasm.


the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots


i understand from several friends who are Vietnam vets (both rotor and fixed wing) that following the Vietnam war every gas station attendant had a commercial licence. (again this is obviously a joke with sarcasm added)

though again, the previous post was also made with [sarcasm mode/on]


Those who ignore history are.....ah never mind.


couldn't agree with you more nad its a primary reason why the industry is in the state it's in.

[Michael Hunt]

I think most of the headlines should probably read "Demand for cheap, pay to fly,bonded,cadet pilots set to soar."
Sad but true.

[sodapop]

Demand for cheap, pay to fly,bonded,cadet pilots set to soar.

This will obviously only apply to international carriers such as CX. With the recent FAA 1500 hour rule, there won't be any cadets flying part 121 in the US.

Never in Australia, unfortunately. Traditionally there have always been far too many pilots for far few jobs and that will not change.

Of course it won't change, due to few number of major cities in Australia and its relative distance from Europe and the US.

i guess you missed the element of sarcasm. "a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight. still haven't seen one !"

Call me humorless, but I fail to see any sarcasm in your post, hence my response. Kindly disregard if you should.

[Capt Toss Parker]

Dear lord baby Jesus with your golden flowing hair .... please let the prediction of pilot shortage come true at least once in my life time, so I can be the pimp and upgrade from my ****ty tiptronic 996 turbo and finally get a decent set of italian wheels.

[T-Mass]

Toss,

Not only does a pylit deserve a 996 turbo for realz, or better yet, a 997 turbo, but I mean what's life worth if you can't roll on dem phat set of Asantis?

[letsfly75]

But I know there have been many flight schools closed down in the states in the past few years due to lack of demand. It's crazy to expect someone, even a flying fanatic like myself, to pay $100k US for a college degree plus another 60+ grand for a commercial ticket to get a $20,000 a year job. I don't think the majors will see the shortage for a while. Judging by student starts in the US this is going to be a problem in the coming years.

[poydras]

A UAL pilot I met on a flight back home recently, said that United will retire 1 pilot every 16 hour starting nov. 2012.....

[sodapop]

letsfly,

that lower pilot graduation or participation in flight schools is also going to contribute to the shortage problem. The lack of new pilot students stems from various factors; more difficult for foreign students to gain access to US flight schools, airlines not hiring for the past 3 years, cost of training (as you state) and, current, low salary at entry-level regional or lower pilot positions (as you also speak about). Hence, less students with higher demand (see the US Today article that started this thread), fueled with higher retirement = a sort of pilot shortage.

[KAG]

a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight.I would say even before: since the Clement Ader first flight, or even back in time, since the Félix du Temple de la Croix first flight ;)


Concerning the article: Each time you see an article trying to make optimistic pilot hiring prediction for the next 20, 30, 40 or 50 years, it always mean we are at the top of the hiring cycle. Each time, it never fails. The only difference today: the top of the hiring cycle (from which everything will decrease...) is not that high this time... Rather low I would say...

[KAG]

Sodapop The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years).

From the "60s" to "the next 6 years", that's 57 years. Let's say 25 years old when hired by an "intercontinental" airline, it means the airline pilot will be 82 years old when he will retire... Forget either about the "60s", either about the "4-6 years from now", or maybe forget about both...

Vietnam war (1 million civilians/women/kids killed, rapped.. let's not forget): 1959/1975 (with most of the US troops removed BY 1973), From 1973 to "the next 6 years", that's 44 years... I guess most of the veterans have already retired, unless they all were 8 years old when they started the war... Don't count on them to produce a pilot shortage in the next 4-6 years...

The next 4-6 years? I would rather bet on a shortage of cheap fuel.


The looming pilot retirement is as "real" as the looming pilot shortage.

[G_Orwell]

That's the full speech...

US Airways Pilot Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger Speaks to Congress

[stuckgear]

There is also another 'elephant in the room' and that is the supply of flight crews from states that have lower living wages, which provides a lower cost pilot body for any airline.

Lets take for example the US, with a large number of carriers covering international routes with types that are also in use with carriers in low living wage countries, an airline as an employer has the capability of employing someone suitably rated and with time on type that enables the capacity for a lower cost pilot that has the requisite experience. the long short can invariably lead to a stagnation level for career development for US citizen pilots, who will be left picking up the jobs on regional and internal lo-co carriers, while the long term career prospect, the long haul and heavy aircraft flying on routes that can be crewed by destination locals.

of course this is just conjecture, however in a competitive market dominant forces are costs. and with the capacity to reduce those costs, its a simple equation of economics, however, here in western Europe this is already starting to occur with lower cost employees filling the shoes of the locals who *need* a higher wage to survive.

Now look at places like Mexico and some other countries.. want a commercial licence, you wont be getting one unless you are a citizen of that state. protectionism? well, yes it is.

[sodapop]

From the "60s" to "the next 6 years", that's 57 years. Let's say 25 years old when hired by an "intercontinental" airline, it means the airline pilot will be 82 years old when he will retire... Forget either about the "60s", either about the "4-6 years from now", or maybe forget about both...


Well, if you reread what I posted, Vietnam "era" pilots who left the military in the mid 70's are now approaching age 65. Even if a guy got out in 1970 he's only now approaching or has just reached age 65. It's not that difficult to do the math(s).

As to your remarks concerning the Vietnam was (conflict to be politically precise), I would say they have nothing to do with this post or forum. I will note that most involvement can be pinned on JFK and LBJ, both democrats whom are now remembered by their initials. How odd.

civilians/women/kids killed, rapped.. let's not forget

Women/kids "rapped". That happened in the late 80s/90s with LL Cool J and MC Hammer.

It is 2011, hence the retirements.

[sodapop]

Lets take for example the US, with a large number of carriers covering international routes with types that are also in use with carriers in low living wage countries, an airline as an employer has the capability of employing someone suitably rated and with time on type that enables the capacity for a lower cost pilot that has the requisite experience. the long short can invariably lead to a stagnation level for career development for US citizen pilots, who will be left picking up the jobs on regional and internal lo-co carriers, while the long term career prospect, the long haul and heavy aircraft flying on routes that can be crewed by destination locals.

you must have US citizenship or a green card to work for a US company, so hiring destination locals doesn't work.

[stuckgear]

you must have US citizenship or a green card to work for a US company, so hiring destination locals doesn't work.


incorrect. if you are living and working in the US. Do all the locals that work at oil and gas sites around the world for US companies have green cards ? or the mulitudes of bank staff in the city of london working for US banks and investment groups have green cards ?

no they dont, i have friends who do both for US companies and I can ssure you they do not nor are they entitled to one.

NB: i have also worked for a US company.

[sodapop]

For a US airline company you do. Thought we were discussing pilot jobs not gas station employees or bank workers who work for the UK branch of Merrill Lynch or whomever. Obviously, baggage handlers, ticket sales, check-in workers are locally employed via a local contract handled through nation-to-nation labor rules.

Unless the airline forms an international branch which, to my knowledge, none have. Happy to hear of any examples of hiring local (non-US or non Green Card holder) pilots and basing them at the destination. Possibly Fedex with the Hkg base but all the guys I know who fly for Fedex out of Hkg are yanks.

Plus, doubt if the US pilot unions would allow it regardless.

[stuckgear]

doubt if the US pilot unions would allow it regardless.


ah now there is a difference ! the dominant European pilot representative bodies are about as useful as a wet fart on a dry day!

[El Lobo Solo]

Dusting off the CV.

Off topic, any recommendations for a HKG AME?

[sodapop]

ah now there is a difference ! the dominant European pilot representative bodies are about as useful as a wet fart on a dry day!

correct apart from the German VC (whom I've worked with) and perhaps the French.


Off topic, any recommendations for a HKG AME?

Dr Frank O'tremba at Dr Vaio & partners TST
2369 3329 or [email protected]


Cheers

[Baywatcher]

European age limit now going to "subject to medical"!

[sodapop]

European age limit now going to "subject to medical"!

Why, were guys allowed to fly without a medical certificate? Just more European bureaucracy adding more words where common sense would dictate.

It's always been "subject to medical" my friend. Even if you're much younger than 60-65.

[Air Profit]

sodapop. To make it clear, there is not going to be an upper age limit (i'm sure you had actually figured that out). The only determining factor for retirement will be medical. Will happen here in HK as well in time.

[The Wraith]

Sodapop.....
You are absolutely right.... There was no RAPE or murder in Vietnam, it was all singing, dancing and happiness......a la MC Hammer et al.

[sodapop]

I've said it before and i'll paste it again....

http://pics.livejournal.com/twoflower/pic/00023gph


Just having a go at the spelling mate. Sorry your relatives were harmed in some way. I'm sure the southern Vietnamese thank you for you concern.

And, once again, please keep the political sh>>t off this forum, dude.

And, another and, nice try impressing people with your latin comprehension (et al). And, yes another and, do you completely and sincerely understand what happened in SE Asia? Please feel free to PM me if you'd care to debate the subject. Otherwise, continue to refer to the above pasted link.

Or, perhaps start a thread entitled "Dr Strangelove or How I learned to love the bomb" or some such drivel.


I.E. Have a nice day.

... it's hammer time....

[break_break]

Fellows,
The only decent starting wage for high time, willing to risk it all widebody left seater is in China, as what most of us should know by now. And the only reason why that is so, is simply because the respective airline management has set aside budget for hiring expatriates in fixed RMB terms. The payscale seems to be rising, as what some agencies would have claimed, is due to the fact that RMB is appreciating accordingly. Absolute RMB budget allocated has not risen, but is most likely to be among the first few to do so. The rest of the world in FAR EAST, are just having a wait and see attitude. NO ONE, wants to be the "bad boy" elevating the benchmark in order to protect their ever insatiable appetite for higher operating profit margin.

I have worked for too many majors and I dare put my arguments along the side that the pay raise, due acute pilot shortages, will NEVER come about. The long overdue pay increase if come about to most big boys' clubs, will merely offset the rise in living cost, adjusted for inflation. Just look at what has happened to QR with their recent pay increase, and what should be happening to EK, KE, and hopefully CX, SQ etc.

I for once, would love to be proven wrong. Nonetheless, looking at the number of cheap cadets in the baking from South East Asia, low wage pilots from Europe and both North South America, I seriously won't hold my breath on any miracle.

[thedude1]

Nearly the entire decade of the 1990's saw soaring pilot hiring in the States.


Are you freaking kidding me. There was little hiring in the 90s. Hiring didn't really start until 98 and ran till 01 and then the bottom really dropped out.
The only shortage is of guys willing to work at abysmally low wages at the entry levels of this biz. Unfortunately entry level now extends out about 10 yrs.

[sodapop]

After the first Gulf War, most military pilots who got out were able to secure a major airline job. Sorry if you didn't have the experience to get hired. This was from 91-93. Even Northwest hired a bunch.

From 96-2000 all major airlines were hiring. Hence, about 50+ guys I know were hired by Southwest alone.

Again, my condolences mate.

PS: isn't 98 part of the 90s?

[sodapop]

The only shortage is of guys willing to work at abysmally low wages at the entry levels of this biz.

Is this a typo or sarcasm?

[The Wraith]

Touched a nerve Sodapop?
Silly me to question the outright authority of the American mentality and their Foreign Policy!:ok:
PS. Only an American would post a picture with a saying as stupid as "How about a nice big cup of shut the f**k up"!!:ugh:

[KAG]

Sodapop:Well, if you reread what I posted, Vietnam "era" pilots who left the military in the mid 70's are now approaching age 65. Even if a guy got out in 1970 he's only now approaching or has just reached age 65. It's not that difficult to do the math(s).

As to your remarks concerning the Vietnam was (conflict to be politically precise), I would say they have nothing to do with this post or forum. I will note that most involvement can be pinned on JFK and LBJ, both democrats whom are now remembered by their initials. How odd.
It's forbidden on PPRune to say "I am wrong", or "true, you have a point", or "maybe I exagerated a bit", I give you that. This is the PPrune community, nobody is wrong ever.
Okay, so concerning your "60s-70s" era, it seems you only take into account the mid 70 part now... Your "era" seems a bit reduced. So I agree, if you speak about a very young vet retiring from Vietnam in 1975 (remember the vietnam war that's mainly 59/73) in his early 20s, yes this guy will be ready to retire pretty soon, sure. So that's the plan to see the looming pilot shortage coming??? What you don't seem to realize, or don't want to see for whatever reason is that most of the airline pilots hired in the 60s-70s are already retired (in 2000/2010), yet you are telling us they will retire in 4-6 years, creating a big pilot shortage in the future. Come back to earth. Let's read again what you wrote initially:The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years).







You said:Women/kids "rapped". That happened in the late 80s/90s with LL Cool J and MC Hammer.

It is 2011, hence the retirements.
Ok you want to make fun about the million of vietnamese civilians mudered, killed, raped, women/kid included. I am telling you something: it's everything but not funny, you do have a weird humour.

Question for you sodapop: for example, who did that, when, what happened in this picture below? (clue: it happened in Vietnam)

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-SWgYFlCZqYc/TYEyP1pCmyI/AAAAAAAADLg/qAg562hjJzQ/My_Lai_massacre.jpg



You found it? Ok here is the answer: picture from a mass murder of 347–504 unarmed citizens in South Vietnam on March 16, 1968, conducted by a unit of the United States Army. All of the victims were civilians and most were women, children (including babies), and elderly people. Many of the victims were raped, beaten, tortured, and some of the bodies were found mutilated.

Others picture available if you like. Remember, most of the times there were no piture to witness the rapes...

[sodapop]

Kag and Wraith,

Please feel free to go to a non-pilot forum to express your views concerning Vietnam. In fact, it would be kind of the moderator of this forum to eliminate any posts regarding political views such as your on a thread which discusses pilot shortage. I'm sure Jane Fonda is available to listen to your views, however. My posting of the link to the coffee shut up was due to the fact that anything regarding these views has no place on this thread or forum, IMHO.


When I made reference to the Vietnam era pilots it was regarding the initial article attached to this thread about the upcoming retirement of many pilots in US major airlines. Perhaps I should have specified which year group is retiring soon but I thought the math would be easy enough to calculate. "Vietnam-era pilots" (NOT "Vietnam vet")also refers to guys that got out in the late 70s but were in the military (or civilian pilots even) during the conflict time frame. That said, pilots from the 60s also were able to secure airline jobs at a decent rate for the reasons previously stated. If you read the post by Poydras regarding UA pilots retiring at the rate he specified you should see that it is happening and going to continue to happen. If you choose not to believe it then so be it.


PS: I personally know the US Army captain who was in charge of Lt Calley at My Lai. It's interesting to hear how things went wrong. Notice I said wrong. No where in any of my posts have I said anything about the conflict being good or correct. I have not stated any political view concerning it. Perhaps, I should not have made a joke of the word ''rapped" and I hereby apologize for making you think a reference to MC Hammer had anything to do with Vietnam (because it doesn't). I also stand by the fact that I never brought up anything about the conflict other than using the term "VIetnam-Era Pilots). Have either of you ever been in battle? Please let us all know where you're from so we can discuss your country's foreign policy. But, alas, the Wraith is nomadic and KAG is an "expat" who has abandoned his country. Let's get on with the real gist of this thread please.

[KAG]

Sodapop: I have read your last post and I understand you were not making fun of the Vietnam rapes (rappes...). Alright let's admit that.

Concerning the huge pilot shortage coming in the next 4-6 years due to the huge pilot retirement from the "Vietnam era" (1959/1973 mainly should I remind you?), just give up for your own sake, it's just ridiculous.

[sodapop]

My final post, as this is getting out of hand and has nothing to do with the pilot shortage.

I have been in a battle, yet never raped anybody.

Well, if you were a pilot, I doubt you'd have the chance.


And concerning the up coming pilot shortage due to huge retirement from the vietnam era in the next 4-6 years (your words), let's call the moderator for help, this is your last possibility to be right: to keep your post and delete all the other ones that shows something wrong in what you say.

Shall we remove every post that is an opinion and may or may not be correct? I'd surmise that 90% of PPRUNE would disappear.


You are the on bringing Vietnam here, you are the one trying to make joke with rappe/rape. It was just to remind you this is NOT funny. Now you are the one saying it is out of topic, only because you feel it cannot support your viewpoint anymore. Try to stand corrected, it happened a few times to me, it happens to anyone.


From my previous post:
Perhaps, I should not have made a joke of the word ''rapped" and I hereby apologize for making you think a reference to MC Hammer had anything to do with Vietnam (because it doesn't). I also stand by the fact that I never brought up anything about the conflict other than using the term "Vietnam-Era Pilots).

Concerning the huge pilot shortage coming in the next 4-6 years due to the huge pilot retirement from the "Vietnam era" (1959/1973 mainly should I remind you?), just give up for your own sake, it's just ridiculous.

Please note from previous post that I described "Vietnam-era pilots" as including pilots who were in the military (or civilian) during the conflict time frame but got out/hired afterwards in the late 70s. Had to edit to include this as it is my final post.


Over and out boys. Will check back in 4-6 years to see if there really were retirements.

[KAG]

I changed my last post after I read the last part of your previous one. Not fast enough I guess, you already answered...

As far as there is no joke with the Vietnamese rapes, I am fine.

[KAG]

Please note from previous post that I described "Vietnam-era pilots" as including pilots who were in the military (or civilian) during the conflict time frame but got out/hired afterwards in the late 70s. Had to edit to include this as it is my final post.
Ok, I know this is your last post, just to be accurate: that's not because somebody, who was a military or civilian during the Vietnam war (59/73 mainly), has been hired in the late 70s (even late 80s if you want!) suddenly became younger when he got hired!

[stuckgear]

would anyone like a mint ?

[sodapop]

would anyone like a mint ?

Only if it's wafer thin.


Thanks Stuck, best post to date. Let's all take a chill pill and have a group hug.

[thedude1]

After the first Gulf War, most military pilots who got out were able to secure a major airline job. Sorry if you didn't have the experience to get hired. This was from 91-93. Even Northwest hired a bunch.

From 96-2000 all major airlines were hiring. Hence, about 50+ guys I know were hired by Southwest alone.



These two statements tell me that your out of your mind or plain don't know what the hell your talking about.
There was very little hiring in the early 90s. Why do you think there were 2500+ hr flight instructors. It wasn't because they were professional-lifetime instructors. It was because there was NO movement, a-la no/little hiring. I seem to remember Pan Am going TU in '91 and what few jobs were available were snatched up by those highly qualified individuals. The hiring didn't really start picking up until '98

All of the majors were not hiring in '96.
I know for a fact that AA and US Air did not start until '98 or later.
I still have the scantron from AA and the app from US Air and those issue dates were in '98.

[thedude1]

Is this a typo or sarcasm?


Neither.
I guess you don't have a clue as to what entry level salaries are these days.

[sodapop]

The only shortage is of guys willing to work at abysmally low wages at the entry levels of this biz.

So you're saying that no one is accepting the low wages---hence the airlines can't find pilots and have a shortage? Hope that's true. In Europe I don't think it's the case as guys/gals get up everyday and pay to fly at Ryanair etc.

From 91-93, UPS hired, NW hired, Delta hired (even after the Pan Am bankruptcy), AA hired, Fedex hired. Mind you I'm speaking of ex-military not 2500+ hour flight instructors. No military pilot that I know who got out after the first gulf was was unable to find a job. I'm not talking 1000s of jobs mate just steady hiring. So perhaps only high-time/ex-mil guys were finding jobs.

Same goes for guys who got out from 96-2000. No one I know was unable to find a job. Again, that doesn't mean 1000s of jobs or that 2500+ hour CFIs without a college degree or what have you were being hired by the majors. No idea what the commuters were doing, although a few guys I know did have to start with commuters in around 99-2000. Then, of course, the bottom fell out.

[Capt Toss Parker]

There is a shortage of handsome Caribou pilots who can play guitar, drive an automatic porsche like Daryl O' Young and ask stupid questions that have no relevance to operations of a big jet :ok:

[BillytheKid]

How many of you on this thread were actually involved in the US airline business during the 90's? By involved, I mean you were working for or applying to any of the US carriers during that time.

Wraith-

What country are you from?

[sodapop]

Hey KAG,

Just occurred to me that perhaps the reason we don't come to terms on the age of guys who left the military at the end of conflict or shortly after, is that many of them got out "early" as the military drew down and so they were in the 24-27 age group. Hence, a guy who was 25 get out in '74 and is now 61-62. Even a 27-year old who gets out in '73 is just now hitting 65. Admittedly, a narrow "Vietnam-era pilot" gap which I should have better explained. Whenever I speak to someone regarding the upcoming retirement boom, they refer to these guys in this manner.

Just for clarification.

Cheers

B the K,

I was heavily into getting ready to apply and prepared from 95-98, still have the old Air Inc gouge book. Ended up flying in Europe instead.

[FlexibleResponse]

We used to talk about the WWII and Korean pilots retirement re pilot shortage...

Then it was the military downsizing with less pilots...

Still waiting...

[Capt Toss Parker]

If there ever is a real pilot shortage I'm going to break out my Saxophone and go bananas ....

Like This ....

7ctNiB6k4cs

[VR-HFX]

Flexible
There will never be a shortage of systems operators but there is definitely a shortage of pilots.
Sorry to say, single pilot IFR is where it is all heading...at least until all the pilots are dead and buried. Hopefully by that time CX will be able to run their schedule with drone operators from the Dakota.
I understand that pretty soon 50 percent of US military ops will be run by drones...then they just upsize them to 400t MTOW and problem solved.
At least then we don't have to get buried with our mistakes:sad:

[stuckgear]

If there ever is a real pilot shortage I'm going to break out my Saxophone and go bananas ....

Like This ....




what, the same few bars repeated incessantly and flipped back to front. i pity your neighbours.. but then again thats only if there's a pilot shortage, so they're safe in this lifetime.

mind you even in WWII, the japanese didnt have a problem of a pilot shortage in finding P2F pilots..


First Kamikaze unit: Commander Asaiki Tamai asked a group of 23 talented student pilots, all of whom he had trained, to volunteer for the special attack force. All of the pilots raised both of their hands, volunteering to join the operation

[Captain Dart]

'Things that make you go ''hmmm...'' '

A Cathay Pacific recruitment ad in 'Flight' magazine, 21-27 June issue. I thought we were 'being swamped with applications'??

(There is also an ad for Emirates over the page.)

[Capt Toss Parker]

FO's are starting to leave for Emirates ..... one this week others in the process.

[Spacecruise]

I dont believe there will be short of pilot, plenty out there do not worry about it.:D

[sodapop]

You are in: Home › Airlines › News Article

DATE:22/06/11
SOURCE:Flight Daily News
PARIS: Boeing warns airlines time's running out for training
By David Learmount


Airlines are seeing greater numbers of their pilots being poached by competing carriers, a sure sign that the long-expected pilot shortage is kicking in despite continued economic gloom in the US and Europe.
The comments from Boeing Flight Services vice-president Sherry Carbary came at the release the 2011 version of Boeing's annually updated analysis of the airline industry's growing needs for skilled personnel such as pilots and technicians over the next 20 years. In 2010 Boeing's study predicted a need for 446,500 new pilots over the next 20 years, but now Carbary says that has risen to 459,600. Boeing's prediction for the number of fully trained technicians airlines will need has climbed from 596,500 to 650,000.
The average annual training need to meet that demand is 23,000 new pilots and 32,000 new technicians.
In the 2011-2030 period, according to Boeing's new figures, by far the biggest demand will come from Asia, because that is where the economic growth is, said Carbary. She also warned that a great deal of the Asian requirement for expert personnel has historically been met by expats, whereas in future the latter will be needed in their home markets,
Asia Pacific pilot demand is predicted to be 40% of the total, said Carbary, whereas in the 1970s it was 2%. Comparative needs in North America and Europe respectively are 18% and 20% and a far higher proportion of those figures is for replacements rather than the additional needs generated by growth. The regional share of demand figures are almost the same for technicians.

[yokebearer]

You silly bunch of scaremongers. Cx can now train a pilot to be equally capable and competent as any in one year! In the old days a guy had to be military or have done many thousands of commercial hours before CX would put him in their jets - but now - thanks to the wonders of the international cadet scheme all of that can be created in ONE YEAR. Its magic.
Stop worrying - there'll never be a shortage.

However there is the little problem of being grounded now faced by Tiger in Aus- apparently in no small part due to pilot experienc/ abilities being lacking....

CX training is the best - so I am still not worried.
The planes fly themselves anyway.

[WhatThe?]

The planes fly themselves...:mad:


until they don't....... that is usually when you need a pilot!


(yes YOKE, I know you were joking)

[AD POSSE AD ESSE]

So CX270 (3 July 2011) operated AMS-HKG with only 3 crew.

"Roster disruption" was no doubt used as a lie to cover up the fact that one of the originally assigned FO's was pulled off to crew another flight that was short.

Always thought that the proviso in Ops Manual for 3 crew back to HKG was reserved for sickness in the outport.

Another clear violation and blatant abuse of procedures in what these :mad: will do in their quest to save a dollar.

[Iron Skillet]

Yeah, somebody got sick in Europe, hence the all-encompassing roster disruption, and thus all the "should's" and "normally's" and "exceptionally's" and "from time to time" options kick in...because we let them include such options with no negative incentives or consequences for them.

As long as there is any wiggle room or exception possible, none of the RPs or FTLs mean anything. I hope the pilot body has woken up to the meaninglessness of agreements that are meaningless, and will not accept such flimsy clauses ever again: Not the variations to the FTLs (the FTLs themselves are much improved, hence all the requested variations - if you have not read the AOA letters about this yet, you must), and certainly not in the next RPs....

It is time the pilots draw their own lines in the sand about what are show stoppers when it comes to meaningless clauses that are so easily re-interpreted, misinterpreted or simply ignored without consequences. That might might a month or two of trying to operate with expired RPs, but that will cause a lot more problems for the company than for the pilots, if the pilots can smarten up and just suck it up for a month or two until they come back in need....

[KDC]

Judging by the latest copy of Flight International as found on an empty chair in an otherwise overcrowded 3rd floor office, it seem that the exclusive and highly regarded Cathay Pacific is running short on new pilot applicants. While one might rightfully wonder how an airline claiming to employ 'the best pilots in the world,' could ever be short of applications, they're boldly reaching for the masses with the ambiguous slogan 'TIME TO UPGRADE YOUR FLYING CAREER.' Another way to write it might be 'At least we're better than whatever crap job you've got now.'

Yet they could have chosen wiser words to spread across a full-page advert, seeing that TIME TO UPGRADE in Cathay is currently one of the highest in the industry.

[Ex Douglas Driver]

Note that the ad doesn't specify what position they're inviting applicants for.... Watch this space, they're putting out the feelers for DEFOs.

[dragonforce]

Where do I sign up?

Base: Singapore
Salary: SGD 200 per hour
Retention Bonus: SGD 20,000 per year (for 3 years if you can last that long)
Posting Bonus: 10% of Gross earnings, approximately (200 SGD/hr x 800 hours per year) x 10% = SGD 16.000 (is this the housing allowance? If so, good luck finding livable place to live on SGD SGD 1300 per month).
Days Off: 8 per month
Singapore tax - to be paid by pilot

You do the math. From my calculations, this is definitely the answer to the mounting pilot shortage - not!

Meanwhile in China:
1. China Southern is offering USD 17,900 (more or less after tax), you get to live in your home country and have twice as many days off per month to enjoy with your family.

2. Air China continues to lose more foreign pilots than they can hire for a variety of reasons.

3. Spring Airlines cuts expansion in half due to pilot shortage.

4. The list goes on.

[thedude1]

I was heavily into getting ready to apply and prepared from 95-98, still have the old Air Inc gouge book. Ended up flying in Europe instead.


What exactly does that mean?? You were getting your certificates during this period??

[usualguy]

I start flying in 1994 and was in USA in 1996. there was no pilot shotage.
2000 was better and market collapsed in 2001, so just 1-2 years were good.

then 2006-2007 was a good time, but collapse again in 2008.

the 6th and 7th years are the best time to get a job, but regrettably keeping a job in aviation for 10 years is very hard


next pilot booming will be in 2015-2016 and 2017 next big crisis.

happy 9/11 anniversary. enjoy the cake.open champagne and dance all night.

[sodapop]

It means I was in the AF getting ready to leave for a civilian job Dude.

Here's an interesting post from another forum:

AA- management asks pilots for relief
31August- 111 pilots retire (mostly >60 year olds); many 777 & 767 Captains

stock market still down...>60 year old pilots can retire 30September and lose minimal amount in share value (~$2.50USD) in defined contribution fund...after that? it's a massive loss, and being >60 y/o, not much time until forced retirement (age 65) to recover.

With many more retirements DEFINITELY only 3 weeks away (still ~ 400 pilots left >60 years old), the scare of defined benefit plan going below funding thresholds (possibly threatening lump sum payout), might spur additional retirements to soar.

Management asking 777 Captains to defer vacations, and other negotiations (relief?) occurring too.

Management opened negotiations FIVE years ago, trying to slide a concessionary contract to the pilots, during a little window of opportunity in late 2006 to early 2007. That didn't work, so they didn't bargained in good faith for 3 to 4 years.

Leverage (retirements/massive aircraft orders) finally arrives to the pilots.

Will it be squandered as pilot leadership and 50%+1 of the membership piss themselves?

Or, will they take advantage of the moment, and raise the bar for all pilots?

The next couple months are going to be interesting.