Stand down chaps, Libya announce ceasefire.

[RAPA Pilot]

Stand down chaps, Libya announce ceasefire.

[Wander00]

Does that make me a Dutchman!

[RetiredSHRigger]

The spokesman had his hands behind his back, bet he had his fingers crossed:mad:

[RAPA Pilot]

Ha, I would say that they have just trumped the UN security council. But we will see what happens. The world wants him gone but how are they going to do that now if he does indeed stop the killing?

[Moi/]

Just a bluff...

Were still going..

[TBM-Legend]

a couple of sonic booms over the Col's tent should see if he means it....:eek:

[draken55]

As the NFZ was aimed at preventing an outright assault on rebels in the east and Benghazi in particular, this is a smart move on his part. It might also satisfy many in the UN, at least for the time being, if the Resolution has had the desired effect.

We may now have a stand off. Do the rebels really offer a popular and credible alternative Government? Will Libya fragment leaving the Colonel in power in the West and South? Will the West push for regime change?

To proceed with the NFZ as a show of force might stiffen the resolve of the rebels and lead them to move West again. Then what? Do we provide their CAS?

[Tashengurt]

Bide his time until our backs are turned then send in the secret Police?

[VinRouge]

Another wedding season the tiffy boys are going to have to face sans gongs!

:E

[RAPA Pilot]

If we go into Libya to back up the rebels who want democracy then do we prepare to go into Bahrain, Yemen, and ultimately Saudi Arabia should their populations rise up and want to live in a democracy while their governments shoot them in the street, indeed will our intervention inspire rebellion from those people believing that we will back them up should they be unable to manage it alone???

[Postman Plod]

That could potentially highlight the hypocrisy in western "democracy" couldn't it.... Interesting times! Do we believe in encouraging the will of the people and real democracy, or do we believe in protecting our friends and allies and pet benevolent dictators?

[Moi/]

Several steps here..

1) The protests start, they cannot be controlled
2) The government send in the troops to sort the protests out
3) The protestors start to fight back, people are dying
4) The world asks them to stop, they refuse
5) The world looks to put troops on the ground to prevent it happening, they need the UN backing for this. Meanwhilst the fighting still goes on.
6) The UN backing is given, a ceasefire is made. UN troops move closer on hold.
7) The protests return, larger in size this time. The police try to hold things back.
8) Things cannot be contained by the police, armed force presence is needed to hold the country.
9) Fighting starts again.
10) UN move in.


I fully see now that we are at Step 6, which has taken 4 weeks to reach this choice. I can see the protests gathering momentum over the weekend, and us reaching steps 7 & 8 by the end of next week. Maybe Fri/Sat.

[RAPA Pilot]

And perhaps that scenario could be repeated across North Africa and the Middle East destablising the region and seducing the weston world in to armed conflict for years to come. Or it may not!!!!

[ATCAdam]

The steps are incorrect in that, the police are no longer in control nor 'holding things back' The pro-Gaddafi supporters and military are already engaging with the rebel forces.... and have been doing so for a long time.

[draken55]

RAPA Pilot & PP

Chances are that most of the British Public will see our interest in Libya as being more about oil than Democracy. However, if it does become the case that a collective conscience formed by TV images drives foreign and defence policy, I shudder to think what could happen in the next few years.

Of course none of this was taken into account in the SDSR, the whole basis of which has now been undermined by world events.

[twochai]

If we go into Libya to back up the rebels who want democracy then do we prepare to go into Bahrain, Yemen, and ultimately Saudi Arabia should their populations rise up and want to live in a democracy while their governments shoot them in the street, indeed will our intervention inspire rebellion from those people believing that we will back them up should they be unable to manage it alone???

I'd be more concerned about Algeria - closer to Libya, closer to Europe and proven very troublesomemore in the recent past!

[bvcu]

Look at UN in Ivory Coast , 11,000 on the ground and the killing goes on , and democracy is stalled .

[dead_pan]

That could potentially highlight the hypocrisy in western "democracy" couldn't it.... Interesting times! Do we believe in encouraging the will of the people and real democracy, or do we believe in protecting our friends and allies and pet benevolent dictators?


Err, I think the gaping holes in our collective policy towards the arab Middle East were exposed some months ago, when it all kicked off in Tunisia.

Actually Bahrain will be the real teaser - I wonder whether Obama's sudden u-turn was driven by recent events there? Maybe he's finally realised that he can't pick and chose which uprisings he supports - he's now got to back them all, regardless of the consequences.

[SRENNAPS]

Sorry, maybe I should have posted this here instead of the Libya NFZ thread.

Just been watching the news with respect to comments by Mr Cameron and the speech made by Barrack Oblimey in the States.

As a matter on interest how many countries in the League of Arab States, that will be part of the NFZ coalition, are democracies and how many are ruled by the will of the “free” people. How many of these countries are actually having their own difficulties with demonstrations and uprisings (admittedly on a much smaller scale).

I think most of us know the answer to these questions but, with this NFZ, could we be sending the wrong message to the people of Bahrain, Saudi and other countries. The message being if you are not in a democratic country, rise up against your leaders and we will come and support you.

Let’s stop beating about the bush and stop using democracy, when it suits us, as an excuse to get rid of the bad people of the world, especially when oil is involved. The hypocrisy of this policy has sent the wrong message around the world, which has in turn led to an increase in radical beliefs within the Muslim world and an increase in terrorism. (anybody read the book written by Peter Arnett)

Let’s just say it as it is……..”Libya is full of oil, Gaddafi is a bad bloke, we don’t like him and he has to go. It has nothing to do with democracy, but his ruling is a danger to world stability”. “Oh, and by the way if we like your ruling party or you don’t have oil then tough cr@p, we cannot and will not intervene in the internal problems of another country”.

With the kind of hypocrisy shown by our “free world leaders” we will never have a peaceful and stable world. On the contrary, it will only create more problems in an already pretty f%%ked up world.

The term “lessons learnt” don’t seem to exist in the politicians minds and history books certainly do not exist.

Finally (and I hope I don’t get run down by an unmarked black car for saying this) but has anybody noticed how Mr Cameron is enjoying that feeling of power now that he is on the world stage. And during his speech today about the NFZ, he was so desperate to say that it was his idea a few weeks ago.

Yet another PM that wants to be as great as somebody like Win C or Maggie T. Sorry mate, but like Tony B, you are nowhere near in their league of being a truly inspirational leader like they were.

[Sir George Cayley]

Would establishing UN airbases in Libya enable operations against Mugabe to start?

Just asking.

Sir George Cayley

[SRENNAPS]

From the BBC news:

BBC News - Why is US backing force in Libya but not Bahrain, Yemen? (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12792637)

But just in case it disappears:

Why is US backing force in Libya but not Bahrain, Yemen?By Andrew North

BBC News, Washington


Gulf Co-operation Council forces used tanks to drive protesters from a central square in Manama, Bahrain Continue reading the main story
Libya RevoltAs it happened: Friday
Uprising in maps
Monitoring ceasefire
UK jets readied
What's the difference between Libya and Yemen or Bahrain?

All three states have been using violence to crush pro-democracy protests.

But only against Libya are the US and its Western allies planning a military response.

Yemen and Bahrain's crackdowns have so far been met only with words, not action.

On one level the answer is obvious.

Bahrain and Yemen are US allies - especially Bahrain with its large US naval base. Libya is not.

The US response to Bahrain is further complicated by neighbouring Saudi Arabia, Washington's number one Arab ally.

Sunni 'red line'

The Saudis were not happy to see Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak go.

Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
Having watched Tunisia and Egypt go, other Arab leaders are following Libya's lead in drawing a line in the sand and opting for force rather than dialogue”
End Quote Losing the Sunni monarchy in its neighbour is a red line - that's why it took the unprecedented step of sending 1,000 troops over the border into Bahrain, after which the crackdown began.

But what happened to the "universal values" US President Barack Obama cited when he eventually backed protesters in Egypt?

His decision to abandon an old US ally there - Mr Mubarak - gave some the impression he was preparing to apply those values universally and to break with the past US policy of cosying up to other Middle Eastern regimes.

Critics say it was a dangerous impression, raising protesters' expectations as well as Gulf monarchs' blood pressure.

'Interests come first'

"The US always preaches values that it cannot live up to," says Marina Ottaway, director of the Middle East programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

"In the end, its interests come first."

As the uprisings have spread out of North Africa to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, those interests have come to the fore again, with Washington taking a more cautious, country-by-country approach.

For the US, stability in those oil-rich states now appears to trump the hopes of their protest movements.

Yemen is crucial to Washington for its battle with al-Qaeda - which makes the Obama administration cautious in how hard it pushes Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

"The US is very afraid that if Saleh goes, Yemen will fall apart," Ms Ottaway says.

Mr Obama condemned the latest violence in Yemen, in which at least 30 protesters were killed.

Reluctance

But he would only call for "those responsible... to be held accountable", without directly laying it at Mr Saleh's door.

Washington has had a low-key response as well to violence used by Iraqi security forces against protesters there.

Even with Libya, the new caution is on display. The administration was reluctant for some time to back a no-fly zone, fearing it could lead to a third US war on a Muslim country, after Afghanistan and Iraq.

It only did so only after it got support from Arab states and European allies.

And it is still not clear how much the US will contribute militarily to the UN-backed no-fly zone or what will happen if Col Gaddafi succeeds in hanging onto power.

With recent history in mind and the tide of protest still sweeping through the region, caution arguably looks a sensible policy from a US point of view.

But it also risks giving conservative Arab leaders the breathing space they need to stall the push for reform and hang on.

Having watched Tunisia and Egypt go, other Arab leaders are following Libya's lead in drawing a line in the sand and opting for force rather than dialogue.

It's not clear if Mr Obama can do anything about it.

[TBM-Legend]

[QUOTE][/QUOTESeveral steps here..

1) The protests start, they cannot be controlled
2) The government send in the troops to sort the protests out
3) The protestors start to fight back, people are dying
4) The world asks them to stop, they refuse
5) The world looks to put troops on the ground to prevent it happening, they need the UN backing for this. Meanwhilst the fighting still goes on.
6) The UN backing is given, a ceasefire is made. UN troops move closer on hold.
7) The protests return, larger in size this time. The police try to hold things back.
8) Things cannot be contained by the police, armed force presence is needed to hold the country.
9) Fighting starts again.
10) UN move in.

[GreenKnight121]

SRENNAPS... Mr Andrew North of the BBC seems to be ignoring a giant problem with his "US hypocrisy" thesis.

The US and Egypt have been close friends and allies for a couple of decades now, with the US considering Mubarak and his government as "essential allies in the Middle East".

But Obama (and most of the rest of the US) urged Mubarak to resign, and provided moral and diplomatic support for the uprising.



This is a stark contrast to his portrayal of "the US is supporting regimes it is friendly to and opposing those it is not friendly to".

[Hell Man]

Those b*tchin about Western nations responding to other areas such a Bahrain, Saudi etc. don't know what the hell they are talkin about!

Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain etc. are allies of the West and their conduct is, for most part, measured. Libya on the other hand has been a rogue nation since Madaffi took control. Behind the scenes they have financed/promoted all kinds of internal disputes throughout Africa pushing an openly anti-semetic and divisive agenda between Christians and Muslims. The evidence is scattered all over Africa where the Libyan regime has encouraged its neighbours to kick-out Israeli missions (which happened in Mali and elsewhere) and in his ill-conveived recommendation to split Nigeria in two! But, the examples run into their hundreds as anyone familiar with Africa would know.

Libya is one of the few countries in the world which still executes those of its citizens who oppose their government. Their intelligence service simply shoots people (locals who generally won't be missed or whose families have no recourse to international media or protection) in the head, normally at close range with pistols!

Besides Madaffi's vile internal management of Libya his involvement with other African states has caused (and seeks to create) divisions - especially between Christians and Muslims. He has financed hundreds of mosques all over the continent and regularly visits them giving speeches in which he denouces the bible as 'Western mythology which has no basis in fact' and that 'Christianity is the whiteman's ideology designed to try and control the rest of the world'.

And when Madaffi gets pissed he has a penchant for bombing aircraft. UTA 772, Pan Am 103 and several African airliners which the media is either too scared to report about or too lazy to research the evidence!

And now, when the pressure is on, he threatens to destroy civilian assets in the Med - again revealing him for the true son of a b*tch that he is!

Those talkin about our response to Saudi, Bahrain etc. should visit those places and then go live in Libya. As always, bullsh*t comments from idi*ts who have never been to the places they're writing about!

I've worked in Saudi, Yemen, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Israel, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Libya, Nigeria, Chad and countless other African nations with the US government. Libya is probably the most dangerous (in terms of what they do behind the scenes) of the Middle Eastern/African countries I've visited.

My best wishes are with all the flyers who go down there - "Bomb the f*ck out of them boys!".

Have a nice day. :ok:

HM

[TBM-Legend]

shelling in Benghazi now. Ceasefire appears broken. Are we surprised??? I should think not.

Send in a few cruise missiles and help the Col. meet his maker...

[sitigeltfel]

"Bomb the f*ck out of them boys!".

You are General Cheeseburger, and I claim my $5.00 :}

dMHDBL7CNA4

[me myself and fly]

Sky News, First for Breaking News, Latest News and Video News from the UK and around the World (http://news.sky.com/skynews)

Hmm ceasefire, NFZ whats that falling from the sky ?

[SRENNAPS]

Hell Man,

I probably did not make myself clear last night, my apologies. The point I was trying to make was that we should not being doing this to Libya in the name of democracy. That is sending out the wrong message, especially to those demonstrating in Bahrain and Saudi etc.

Gaddafi and his rogue state, as it is, needs to go and I am quite happy for us to bomb the cr@p out of him. We should also being doing this to all other rogue states around the world, whether they have oil or not. To pick and choose which countries we do and then do it in the name of democracy smacks of total hypocrisy to others around the world watching.

The message we should be putting across is that the “World” will no longer tolerate rogue states that threaten the stability of the planet or persecutes its own population. Do this and the World will deal with you.

Many countries that do not have democracy (as we know it) have lived in peace and harmony for many, many years. In my opinion Tunisia was a mistake and should not have happened in the way that it did. The people of Tunisia were nowhere near as oppressed as those in other countries. Sadly it happened and it has set off a chain of events leading to where we are today.

I have also spent a little bit of my life in the Middle East, in several counties some of which were very nice, but to be quite frank, a few buckets of instant sunshine, in certain areas, would have solved all our problems years ago.:rolleyes::rolleyes:

GreenKnight121

I totally agree with you :ok:

[Lone_Ranger]

Aircraft shot down today................from the footage, Id say it was a Mirage F1

[Hell Man]

Thank God its begun! :ok:

A great day for ordinary Libyans and their children. Maybe they will have a real future once we're done.

Any criticisms .. go s*rew yourself and read the thread http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/446137-real-gadaffi.html on the way out!

HM

[SkyCamMK]

Wouldn't it be great if the crew that defected to Malta had gone back to help in the enforcing of the NFZ and taken out the offender?

I guess it could be from a US carrier? but why no statement yet? Perhaps it was the French and they want to announce it at the summit. 100:1 that it was Qatari? Pre emptive action may have some effect but we need a few facts here.

Edit 1 It couldn't be a coalition aircraft could it?

Edit 2 Sky's guest reckons it was a Mig 23

[Geehovah]

From the BBC footage it looked like an F1 to me too but from the later Sky shot which shows a top profile it seems to be a Flogger. From the characteristics of the impact I'd say a MANPADS hit, although surprisingly little smoke plume. Only a single chute. Speculation I know but not bad footage.

[Willard Whyte]

MiG 23 I think

Libya crisis: fighter plane 'shot down' as Gaddafi forces attack Benghazi - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8392298/Libya-crisis-fighter-plane-shot-down-as-Gaddafi-forces-attack-Benghazi.html)

http://cencio4.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/mig-shot-down.jpg

[Just This Once...]

Looks like a PBO MANPAD hit on a Mig-23 with a rather late exit by the pilot.

[Tashengurt]

Def' Mig 23

[Just This Once...]

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/1332/m1gz1d1a4oo0700.jpg

Mig on a stick.

[Daysleeper]

has the definition of "ceasefire" changed recently...:hmm:

[Clockwork Mouse]

The pilot would probably have been better off if he'd stayed on board.

[diginagain]

He could always claim he was intending to defect but didn't have Luqa's approach frequency.........

[Fareastdriver]

I would not put it past the rebel Libyans to have an anti-Gadaffri pilot to take up a Mig from, say El Adem, fly it around Benghazi for a bit and then bang out with an explosive device in the aircraft initiated by the ejector seat.
Nice little excuse to get Western intervention.

[pr00ne]

The Mig was being flown by anti Gadaffi forces, they have admitted the loss this morning.


Fareastdriver
"Excuse" for Western intervention? What the hell are you talking about? There is no need for an "excuse" for christ sake! The fact that Gadaffi tanks entered Benghazi this morning and he continues artillery bombardments of numerous civilian areas is reason enough for air strikes. If they don't happen, then the West has just lost any shred of decency it had...

[dead_pan]

Its going to be effin difficult deciding who's who if he does get in to Benghazi, given that we're not allowed to have any boots on the ground to id targets. Of course, we could send in a couple of 'diplomatic teams' to help the rebels. Those FCO boys are pretty handy when it comes to a fight.

[draken55]

There are so many conflicting stories that it is impossible to know what is going on from afar. It is possible that the Colonel's ceasefire announcement combined with the further talks in Paris to-day has given Government Forces the time needed to close to or within Benghazi. If that proves the case, it will be a real problem to identify who is on one side or the other in an urban environment.

It would also mean he does not now need to use his Air Force. How do we then use Air Power alone to get him to withdraw especially if he then has his supporters around or on the roofs of potential targets? And all on live TV!

[TBM-Legend]

news is the Col's boys are attacking "rebels"/freedom fighters right now. The cease fire was a sham..:hmm:

[Spit the Dog]

I know I'm going to miss the rugby and thats for sure.

[dead_pan]

Aircraft shot down today................from the footage, Id say it was a Mirage F1


Lets hope the rebel's id skills are better. Will they know told not to shoot at planes flying over the city from this afternoon? Its just if Gaddafi's forces open up at an aircraft I reckon everyone else will join in.

[MReyn24050]

The Mig was being flown by anti Gadaffi forces, they have admitted the loss this morning.

From Wikipedia Libya had 109 MiG 23 in service. Most are grounded. 2011 civil war in February and March: at least 4 captured by rebels in air base in Benghazi February and March 2011.[citation needed] Four captured by rebels at Tobruk air base.[24] Four captured by rebels in hangar at Misratah.[25] One captured by rebels at Al-Abrak.[26]

So how will the boys enforcing the No Fly Zone tell the difference between a MiG23 operated by the Rebels from that operated by Gadaffi's Forces? However, I suppose as it is supposed to be a No Fly Zone it does not really matter both should not be in the air.

[kenparry]

So how will the boys enforcing the No Fly Zone tell the difference between a MiG23 operated by the Rebels from that operated by Gadaffi's Forces?
That's not actually required by the UN resolution. What's not to understand about "No Fly Zone?". It does not mean "One side can fly zone but the other cannot".

[Fareastdriver]

There is no need for an "excuse" for christ sake!

If you are going to jump up and down will you remember to spell Christ's name with a capital 'C' please.

[Just This Once...]

So how will the boys enforcing the No Fly Zone tell the difference between a MiG23 operated by the Rebels from that operated by Gadaffi's Forces?

Perhaps...

A bloke behind a screen takes note of which airfield they take-off from and gives them a suitable track id...

A different bloke, called 'Bob', walks up to the Rebels and gives them a sheet of paper with squawks and times for that day...

Another bloke looks at a different screen / radio to monitor what the different tracks are up to...

All the other chaps/chapesses train regularly how to differentiate between friendly tracks and not so friendly tracks...

Even the average USAF F-16 driver knows that there is a high probability that he/she may end up fighting an adversary one day in a near identical F-16 to their own, such is the way of the modern world.

[dead_pan]

I wonder if HMS York and/or HMS Cumberland are still in the Benghazi environs? Would be a massive PR disaster if they had anything to do with the events of this morning...

[SilsoeSid]

Well said Fareastdriver, but he still isn't angry enough to use a different prophets name instead is he ;)

[BandAide]

Even the average USAF F-16 driver knows that there is a high probability that he/she may end up fighting an adversary one day in a near identical F-16 to their own, such is the way of the modern world.

I recall having a chat with an F-15 instructor a few years ago. He had just met the parents of his Saudi student who had just graduated the RTU course. "He taught me everything I know", the student said to his father.

"That's true", the instructor told me. "I taught him everything he knows. But he has no idea about everything I know."

[dead_pan]

French TV reporting French AF jets over Benghazi.

[Sgt.Slabber]

I wonder if HMS York and/or HMS Cumberland are still in the Benghazi environs?

I believe CUMBERLAND is still around, YORK has resumed her trip to points south.

[MSAW_CFIT]

Perhaps...

A bloke behind a screen takes note of which airfield they take-off from and gives them a suitable track id...

A different bloke, called 'Bob', walks up to the Rebels and gives them a sheet of paper with squawks and times for that day...

"Another bloke looks at a different screen / radio to monitor what the different tracks are up to...

All the other chaps/chapesses train regularly how to differentiate between friendly tracks and not so friendly tracks...

Even the average USAF F-16 driver knows that there is a high probability that he/she may end up fighting an adversary one day in a near identical F-16to their own, such is the way of the modern world. "


The Yanks will just shoot down anything up there including civil airliners like Iran Air 655.

They couldn't distinguish between an A300 and an F-14

[BandAide]

The Yanks will just shoot down anything up there

I just love hyperbole delivered with a straight face.

[pr00ne]

Fareastdriver,


No, I won't.

[Stratofreighter]

A Dutch correspondent saw the dead pilot being brought into a hospital, covered by his blood-stained parachute. According to him not a pretty sight...

Some rebels don't rule out this was a case of "blue on blue/friendly fire"... :ugh: :ouch:

[RAPA Pilot]

I think we all knew that the Gaddafi wouldn't back down and he hasnt. I think he has whats coming to him, but without ground troops I don't think it will be that simple. The only way to topple him is if the whole country rise up to get rid of him.

[Easy Street]

The only way to topple him is if the whole country rise up to get rid of him. Hopefully the targeting of Gadaffi's forces will make that easier and more likely. According to the news, the Libya's air academy was targeted - hardly front-line stuff, sounds like a possible morale-sapping campaign....

Admittedly, it would be a first if air power alone achieved the campaign objective. However, it would be a great stick to beat the Army over the head with. Come on!!!