Is pilot job market picking up at all??

[flyhighspeed300]

I have been waiting for the market to pitck up for the last 3 years. Still no flying job. Other people have been waiting longer than me too.

The only one thing to remember if you want a flying job, is that you have to pay for a type rating.

apart from Flybe, everywhere else gets you to pay for your Type rating now. Its standard practice, unless you get very lucky, like winning the lotto to night.

I wish you the best of luck whatever you choose to do.

[dreamlinerguy]

It really does depend on whether you have the funds for a type rating with the likes of ryanair, and only one in 20 or so pass the interview...

Who have you found to do the CPL/MEIR for 15k may i ask????

[JB007]

I would say there is a small light at the end of the tunnel for experienced pilots only at the moment...the above posts give a pretty good indication of what the low-houred pilot market is like...

[NukeHunt]

I would say there is a small light at the end of the tunnel for experienced pilots only at the moment

Basically, someone's holding a match in Calais, when your in Folkstone with your cigarette for newbies at the moment.

:}

[Kelly Hopper]

No wish to pour water on your dreams but 15-17k for a CPL/IR????
That is totally unrealistic and I would be very dubious of anyone saying it can be done for that money.

Whilst the market is picking up for experienced pilots it is very slow and if you don't have the correct rating/type experience/ and now current within 3 months (or even 28 days) you get discounted.

Sorry to say there is still a mountain to climb yet!

[Nearly There]

There not a million miles away with that figure, I did mine for under 20k around 2.5 years ago.

[EK4457]

CPL/MEIR can be done for less than £20k if you do your homework.

However, if you are starting from scratch, you will need a PPL, ATPL groundschool, 100 hours of P1 (often refered to as 'hour building') and an MCC.

Very approximately,

PPL~8K
100 hours P1~8K
Groundschool~3k
MCC~3K
Exams/test fees/aircraft hire for test~5K

This brings you to around £45K - £50K from start to finish as an absolute minimum. This excludes resits, extra training, travel, accomodation, medical etc etc...

This is why people are doubting your headline figure of £20K. I always tell my students not to expect any change out of 50 grand.

[Lightning Mate]

I always tell my students not to expect any change out of 50 grand.

So do I.....

[volunteerpilot]

sorry should have said, i got PPL and done the theory. Went back to school today and asked few more questions about training and the cost has now come from 15k initially to 20k which means if I struggle I will have to get career development loan to get additional training.

Hope banks still provide these loans.

[VJW]

You don't have to apologise mate, what you initially said was quite clear.

You said you were considering doing CPL/IR/ME.

Typical useless replies you'll always get on here, from know it alls who assume too much.

Stapleford does CPL for £5210 and IR for £11665 = 17k (minimum)

Simple easy answer :ugh:

[RTN11]

Be careful basing your budget on minimum times.

The minimum legal requirement for the IR will be up to 35 hours in a Sim, and only a minimum of 15 in the aircraft if you do the CPL first.

In practice, it will be difficult to get a first time pass in this time, and now the CAA has clarified that taxi time will not count, you're looking at 17-20 hours in the aircraft straight away. Make sure you budget for this, and not the bare minimum quoted in the brochures. :}

[BoeingDreamer]

VJW - sorry but you are wrong. Add another £2700 for ME.

Add approach fees, landing fees, CAA fees, and can promise you even with minimum hours it will be more then quoted.
I did CPL/ME/IR at Stapleford, and cost me around £25.000 - I did it all in stages, and passed first time on all!

The cheapest you can do is probably £21.000 - £22.000 if you do in minimum hours, incl fees etc. But if you budget for £25.000 you should be safe.

(not including hour building)

[VJW]

Ok perhaps he'll need a ME rating, from his original post it's not easy to tell. ME/IR I took to mean a multi engine instrument rating, and that a MEP class rating was already held. In either case, one of us is guessing.

Approach fees of course, CAA fees (aside from me) everyone has to pay! Not sure what landing fees you're talking about. Did my CPL/IR at SFC and it was free to land there. Never landed at Southend, if memory serves me right.

Notice from my post I said 17k minimum. That 'minimum' meant things like the above would be added on. My main point was that too many people thought that because he wanted to do a CPL/IR/ME that he needed to now start the PPL/hours/ATPL's etc etc, when actually to me it was pretty obvious he'd already got those, and that his 20k would be pretty much all the money he'd need to get what he original requested a CPL course, and ME/IR!

[windypops]

I would say things are still quite bleak but there does appear to be a bit of movement. For low houred folks things are still very quiet out there.

Having said that I've also heard that one of the smaller operators is looking to get some additional aircraft which will require crewing, but this is certainly nothing more than a "well informed rumour" and this time.

[captainsuperstorm]

good new for you all,
airlines are now filling their database because they know soon, they won't be any pilot left on this market.I received 3 calls this last months asking for my CV.

the causes are :


- in 1 year, US airline will have problem to find pilots(full ATP required for copilot).I belive US airlines will need hire expats very soon or they are not going to fly their planes, and I don't belive they will pay cadets with no hours.

-crisis is ending. bank make big money, unemployment is still high, but will soon go down.

-fuel will be cheaper once the arab countries fix their problem.finish to pay gadafi and other middlemen crooks.

-retirement for some pilots reaching their 65.

to tell you there is some hope for everybody.we are going to see in 2011 a big big change in the worldwide economy.you may even find a job in Lybia.

no need to start to pay these scamers of P2F.it's over for them!
I have been negative so far(based on my 25 years experience) but view the situation in Arab countries, I have to change my point of view about the future.
:ok:

[MightyDucks]

Captiansuperstrom :eek:,
A new side of you :ok:

[cessna310]

WOW Captiansuperstrom!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dan1165]

Lets hope you are right ... Would like to be as optimistic as you :rolleyes:

[giggitygiggity]

I initially thought it was sarcasm but I will give him the benefit of the doubt!

[downwind24]

I think hes stayed logged on and one of his kids posted that really :E

[VJW]

Downwind I'd love that to be true.

[downwind24]

Hey VJW out of interest how come you didnt pay test fees , was it because you worked there ?

[rmcb]

Is that Lybia minora or majora? Your choice for a big or small new opening!

[Jugs08]

I think for some people they are only looking for sure bets; I mean what about all the people that started a business and they were told it won't work by everyone. I beleive it's the people that know what they are getting into and are able to defy everyone and take the plunge are the one with the resolve to make it . I mean loads of industries are difficult to get into. Anyone would think a Pilot has no career choices at all.

Obviously timing is an issue. But I think too many peeople expect an Fatpl to get you into a jet instantly. When actually it's just a commercial license. Think of all the jobs that are out there where you spend 1-2 years learning. I saw someone post if your a Pilot your not going to be rich go start your own business. How can you compare being an employee to an employer; just riduculus. What about investing your salary? there are loads of options. I think if everyone sgtart to think postive things might change. The media has hyped this recession into everyone's brains. I'm about to finish the PPL and go Modular; It wont be easy it may not work; I may never fly a jet; but if you don't take a shot then your not gonna score.

[Deano777]

Jugs

Commendable attitude, but if you look at it the reality will tell you a different story. In boom time there's about 250-300 jobs per year created in the industry through retirements/expansion etc. On average about 1200 wannabes come out of the flight schools with a fATPL. This means 900 will never make it, ever. You can have a positive attitude all you like, you can want it all you like, but the majority will never make it. Thinking positive will not change those figures.

[BigNumber]

Ridiculous, the market remains on its knee's. Even with hours on type it is a real challenge to find an interview let alone paying work.

Remember, at present, air pax movements are in decline (slight rise in freight) and the oil price is soaring. P2F is the ONLY way to get a ride now for the FATPL with shiny MEP/IR!. So best tap up the folks; you'll have to pay for your pose!!

Airforces around Europe are shrinking, lots of service leavers will keenly hoover up any real chances so you know what the remaining option is?!:E

And splendid it is. Continued cheap air fares for my needs through your kind subsidies. I thank you all.

[chimichanga]

I think there will always be a market for people willing to pay to work. However, I think it is wishful thinking to believe that the airline pilot profession will receive adequate pay for the type of job they do. I used to cringe when I heard the term "bus drivers of the sky", but now I cringe because actual bus drivers get paid better and have reasonable terms and conditions.

[bravobravoflyer]

I'm in the process of applying for a Career Development Loan as they are currently offered by Barclays and the Cooperative Bank. You can get up to £10,000 as long as you don't have access to more than £16,000 personally.
I know this is a very basic point but before you commit to any course ensure that you have got a contingency fund (mine is at least 15%) in addition to the course costs and you also need to be 110% clear about what extras you need to pay for i.e. CAA Test fees for CPL and IR exams, aircraft hire for test, landing fees etc.
I've found putting together a spreadsheet of costs including living expenses etc for whilst doing the course helpful for budgeting purposes.

[Merritt]

Deano said... In boom time there's about 250-300 jobs per year created in the industry through retirements/expansion etc. On average about 1200 wannabes come out of the flight schools with a fATPL. This means 900 will never make it, ever.

Can you point me in the direction of links / data for these figures please? Im not necessarily doubting it but would like to know where I can find it.. Thx

[Deano777]

Merritt

I got them from a PPRuNe seminar I attended a few years ago. Apparently they got them off the CAA if I remember correctly.

[ShadowPX]

Hello guys,

How do you think the market will look like in six years?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

EZY & RYR are the only ones hiring and you'd better budget £100k for either.

House prices are falling. There is no QE or slashing Interest Rates available. Taxes have gone up and public sector job cuts are 6 weeks away on a big scale.

Rock. Hard Place.


6 years? Yeah, probable about right in terms of the normal economic cycle.


WWW

[MightyDucks]

More great news....:{

[fabbe92]

I am about to make up plans for the atumn and I know I should opt for university. However, after searching and analysing info, it's still difficult to deside wether this is the right time to head off to uni for 3 years or wether it's now one should start training. I don't want to miss the train!

[Rj111]

Anyone who is contemplating having a go at it in these circumstance clearly does not have the decision making skills necessary to become a pilot.

Get your PPL and enjoy private flying for now.

Though on a lighter note, the other day I stumbled accross a post by WWW posted early last decade, predicting a prosperous economic future. :E

[cefey]

I can say 1 thing for sure. More and more people fly by each year (look at data from airports), companies ordering more and more airplanes, opening new routes. More and more airports is build and getting expended. (only in chine they gonna build around 50 new ports (now they have around 90, so they almost gonna doble them).
Im not sure, but it just maaaay be, indication of market picking up?! Or does it mean less pilot jobs available...?:p

"expensive oil" and stuff like that is completely BS! Companies not gonna close routes and fly less, because of expensive oil. They make money of FLYING, not on having fewer routes.
Ticket prices maybe higher, wages lower, lower service... but by all means, not "less flying".
And lets not forget about "new technology" that make flight much more fuel efficient... which would mean "more jobs"?:p

[captainsuperstorm]

I can say 1 thing for sure. More and more people fly by each year (look at data from airports), companies ordering more and more airplanes, opening new routes. More and more airports is build and getting expended. (only in chine they gonna build around 50 new ports (now they have around 90, so they almost gonna doble them).
Im not sure, but it just maaaay be, indication of market picking up?! Or does it mean less pilot jobs available...?http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/tongue.gif

it doesn't mean they will hire YOU. airplanes are replaced. airport are certainly bigger, due to the expansion of china. too bad for you, you are not chinese, so no job for you there.


"expensive oil" and stuff like that is completely BS! Companies not gonna close routes and fly less, because of expensive oil. They make money of FLYING, not on having fewer routes.
Ticket prices maybe higher, wages lower, lower service... but by all means, not "less flying".
And lets not forget about "new technology" that make flight much more fuel efficient... which would mean "more jobs"?

not true, when fuel is high , it means less money in your pocket and more in your fuel tank . people fly less, buy less gadgets,... and don't go to cinema so often.

new technology means aircraft cost more, more insurance to pay,... even if you plane burn 4 G instead of 8 G/hour, insurance will triple because the plane cost 300'000 instead of 100'000


you want to convince yourself your didn't lose money. sorry guys, you should have chosen another profession.

[CAT3C AUTOLAND]

Anyone who is contemplating having a go at it in these circumstance clearly does not have the decision making skills necessary to become a pilot.

RJ111, so exactly what are the decision making skills to become a pilot then?

[Rj111]

Basic risk assessment is certainly one of them

[cefey]

Captainsuperstorm
As I said in my other post, I do know people, who worked hard and got (or about to get) into cockpit in 737 for good airliners.
As well, I do know people, who got their CPL IR and now working at gas station/subway/mcDonalds. Because they dont do their best, to get into cockpit of an airliner.

Dont forget, people getting older, quitting their jobs, getting off with pensions. And airliners need people. As we both agreed, more and more airports getting build, they growing bigger, people fly more and more.
As well, companies do replace some of the old planes, yes. But they as well do order NEW. That called expending the fleet. They do open new routes.

Companies need new people all the time. No matter what you say. No one cares, what you are saying. Cause this is FACTS.
People fly more, companies opening new routes, its more and bigger airports everywhere in the world. Old pilots getting out.

According to your post, NO ONE will get hire. Never ever, no matter what.

I dont mean to be disrespectful, but its seems like you self never made it into the cockpit. And now you are so bitter, just trying to ruin the dream for everyone else.

Anyhow, I dont want to argue with you.
Id rather tell people, there is jobs out there. And it will be more. Simply because industry is growing all the time.
Cheers

[zondaracer]

Airlines will always need pilots, but the real question is how many pilots vs how many jobs. Right now, lots of pilots and not as many jobs. When jobs are aplenty, you won't have to be as creative/work as hard/etc to get a job. But to say that there are no jobs is a gross exaggeration.

[timzsta]

If you want an airline job, borrow £100k, go integrated, apply to Ryanair or Easyjet, pay for your type rating immediately after getting your license issued.

That is the only way now and it will never ever change.

Otherwise get a PPL and fly on your days off when your not driving a Leyland for Arriva.

[Jugs08]

I have to agree. If you read Airliner World or Flight International there are lots of expanding fleets all over the world. The number of operational aircraft in the world is growing. The world population is growing. It seems to me as though some people expect it to be easy. Getting into a career isn't easy for anyone; yes some are lucky but most is through hard work. Seems to me asif you are that negative you shouldn't even post on here if you have that much resent towards and industry.

[captainsuperstorm]

at this time the real number is

1 job for 500 pilots.

:{:{:{

[PPRuNe Towers]

Glass half full types out and about I see.

I'd appreciate a quick explanation of why normal economic theory is being brushed under the carpet in this discussion.

Where's the increase in remuneration if there's an expanding market but supposed constricted labour supply?

I talk to the agencies several times a week - no significant pay shifts other than for deeply unpopular hardship postings. Lots of posts - yes. Constricted supply - it appears to be the very early stages - but even then the deals seem more about improving perceived quality of life without real bottom line costs - rotations and so on.

Experienced pilots will be along shortly to counter, rebut or confirm large pay increases for experienced people to trigger the trickle down effect you are hoping for.

I've been through several aviation cycles now and it's still a tunnel with a glimmer in the distance if pay isn't moving. I would suggest that pressure on terms is still downwards because we still have a disastrous northern hemisphere summer of uncrewed services to go before the bonus fed echelons with the spreadsheets are forced to react to the market.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

From a UK perspective the two main sources of new airline jobs, Ryanair and easyJet, both stop expanding their fleets in the next two years. Do not underestimate that. Between them they have gone from 20 aircraft in 1997 to 450 aircraft now. That's an average of around 33 additional aircraft a year which is about the equivalent of a whole new Monarch or Britannia airlines per year.

When its back to dead mans shoes then the slowdown is going to feel violent.

Whilst the sandpit may entice some pilots to leave the UK there are a suprising number who wouldn't mind making the opposite journey for the right job. The military have a surplus of pilots which nobody seems in much of a hurry to employ.

Everywhere you look there is NO shortage of humans with commercial flying qualifications.

Interest rates will rise. Public sector jobs will be cut. House prices are falling.

Join the dots.


WWW

[170to5]

WWW, thanks for making the point that no-one else has so far. I think it is a point that may be overlooked when in reality it cannot be overstated.

[cefey]

WWW
Thats true, once companies reach their max fleet, it will say "stop" for pilots. However, it still would be possible to get a job. And not THAT hard neither.

1.1 Lets take a look at the situation we have now.
Its very hard to get a good job.
Even for experienced pilots.
For low-hour pilots "only" way is via CFi or job in africa for 2-3 years.

1.2 What was the situation 1.5 years ago?
It was impossible to get a job.
Even for experienced pilots.
Companies was cutting down their fleet and firing pilots.

Conclusion: Market is improving.
Now, lets take a look at the reasons:
3 years ago market was "awesome" and even low-hour pilots could get a job.
Then finance crises kicked inn.
Many companies went bankrupt, most people was short on money. Less people flew. Companies had to start cutting down on expenses, reducing their fleet (cause less people flew) ---> experienced pilots loosing jobs.
Many pilots with airline experience struggling to get a job. No market for "new pilots."

Now market is on the way back to normal. Experienced pilots got their job back. Pilots that "graduated" 2-3 years ago and was "working hard" as CFI or doing low-payed jobs is getting hired now. Pilots that graduated a year ago is next ones to be hired. Of course if they was doing something to get hours, and not just "waiting for better time".

Older pilots go out with the pension, making way for younger lads, people fly more, more airports getting expended and new ones gets build, companies expending their fleet.

Now, as WWW said, its a limit, how much companies can expend their fleets. However, new companies will join the market.
China is planing to build 45 new airports in next 10 years.
Oslo Gardermoen is to be expended within next 5 years (work have started already) and they are planning another expansion 5 years later.
So, companies gonna start adopting to the market, open new routes, which means, additionally expend their fleet.

My guess, pilot job market will be back to normal within next 2 years. After that, older pilots will leave, new will come. So it will stay on same level. Ofcourse, that all depends how many people will do pilot training. But more or less, it will be stable, at least until new crisis or something huge happens.

But industry will always need new pilots, simply because old ones quite. Some times (3-5 years periode), there will be higher demand for pilots (more pilots quite, then get graduated), other times, it will be opposite, and you will have to wait or work as CFI a bit longer. But with few exceptions, everyone one that work hard and do their best, will eventually get into the cockpit of new, shiny 737 and enjoy fulfilling their dream and being pilot.

[170to5]

why do people keep relying on for this enormous surge of retirements? hasn't it been due since 1905??

also the rate of expansion will be directly affected by the price of oil going through the roof as the developing world increases its consumption. people can only afford to pay so much to fly. for anyone interested, and it sounds like a lot aren't, it would be well worth watching the effect on the industry as oil goes up.

[KAG]

There will be less and less job available, even if sometimes it's hiring, we will always have less position available.

In the US for example, 25% less pilot the last past 30 years. Funniest if they kept speaking about a pilot shortage during all of those same 30 years.As of the end of 2008, there were 613,746 active certificated pilots. This number has been declining gradually over the past several decades, down from a high of over 827,000 pilots in 1980.
Few opportunities, yes. Few pilot ritiring yes. More position, no. In the future? Much worse. Economy unstability, airplane with one pilote, fuel crisis, this the future, no escape.

If you like adventure and have the spirit, flying piston/turboprop around the world, discovering new languages and culture, then why not. Get a cheap single engine CPL and have a blast.

If you dream about jet and uniform, you will board one on the most stupid career, you will have no story to tell, you won't travel (airport), you will just be a modern monkey, modern because seated in a jet, and this is only if you find a job. Anyway lay off are to come, massive lay off within 10 years.

[cefey]

170to5
Oil prices not gonna affect industry THAT much.
Tickets will be more expensive because of oil, yes. But on the other hand. By how much? Lets say 10-20%. Now, usually I pay around 1000$ for my vacation (cheap one). 2000$ for more expensive.
Of those 1000-2000$, ticket cost is 100-200$ (depends where I go). So, increase in oil--->tickets prices by 20%.
Now, my vacation will cost between 1020 and 2040$. Will I cancel it because of that? No. Will anyone else? I dont think so.

Buisnes trips. You think all those "important" guys gonna stop traveling, because they have to pay 20-40$ more for their ticket? (lets make it 100, since they going on 1st class). I doubt that.
And last, but not least, oil prices up, will affect gas prices for everything. Boat, cars, busses. People still gonna need to travel. ALL prices will go up by same amount, not only planes. So, those who fly, instead of taking buss today, will do so in 5 years, when oil prices is much higher.

[Grass strip basher]

Oil price over US$100 again.... but of course that will have no impact :oh:

[KAG]

Oil prices not gonna affect industry THAT much.
I know human being don't learn from the past, and don't have much memory, but 2008 is that so long ago???

It won't affect it, it will put it down.

[7574ever]

KAG:

You fail to mention the fact that the majority of the certificates that are no longer active are Privates... Which makes sense since GA in the States peaked in the 70's and has been going downhill since then.

However, there's other numbers that you don't seem to account for.

Example: between 1999 and 2008 the number of active ATP certificates in the US rose by 9,196. What about that? I'm not making it up, it's all in the civil airmen stats section of the FAA website.

Look, I wouldn't recommend flight training to anyone either, but let's not hang ourselves just yet.

[cefey]

KAG
And what happend in 2008? You blame "high oil prices" and not global crisis for bad times in aviation?:eek::confused:

And just to make it clear - high oil prices are in no way responsible for crisis.
High oil prices "helped" and prolonged crisis, but in no way what so ever they was the reason.

And that exactly is a problem here. People blaming anything for "bad times" but the real causes.
Get the whole overview right and you will see, outlooks is not that bad, as many people on this forum try to make it look like.

[KAG]

Cefey, I understand your optimism, and I understand what you want for the future: a good career path in a healthy industry. Nothing wrong with that. But nothing wrong neither to bring you back to reality.
And just to make it clear - high oil prices are in no way responsible for crisis. Let me refresh your memory:

Tuesday 3 June 2008
The airline industry will lose $6.1bn (£3.1bn) this year if the oil price remains at record levels, with carriers facing a worse crisis than after the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001, the International Air Transport Association has warned.

Airlines will move from a profit of $5.6bn last year to a loss of $6.1bn this year if oil is trading at $135 a barrel, according to forecasts from the global airline body. Giovanni Bisignani, its chief executive, said the industry was "struggling for survival", with 24 airlines going out of business since January.

"The situation is desperate and potentially more destructive than our recent battles with all the horsemen of the apocalypse combined," he told hundreds of airline executives at the Iata annual general meeting yesterday.

Iata said the industry's fuel bill would rise by at least $40bn to $176bn, wiping out last year's profit seven times over. The figure is based on a more conservative average oil price of $107 a barrel.

British Airways, which is one of only 14 airlines in the world with a profit margin of more than 10%, has admitted it could move from a profit of £883m to a loss over the next two years despite its robust cost base and balance sheet. The rest of the industry is less resilient and operates on an average profit margin of just over 1%, underlining the threat posed by a sudden spike in fuel costs.

The outlook for airlines worsens if current oil trends are factored in. If oil costs $107 a barrel, the industry would lose $2.3bn this year but the current level of $135 a barrel would push that deficit to $6.1bn, Iata warned.

"Just as we started to recover we face another crisis of potentially even greater dimension. Our industry is like Sisyphus. After a long uphill journey, a giant boulder of bad news is driving us back down," said Bisignani.

There was some respite for the industry yesterday, as oil fell below $126 a barrel.

In the Istanbul Declaration announced by Bisignani yesterday, Iata urged governments to drop airline ownership restrictions, such as limiting foreign control of US airlines to no more than 25% of their shares, and slash aviation taxes, such as air passenger duty in the UK. "Airlines are struggling for survival and massive changes are needed," he said.

Bisignani said the oil crisis would force governments to consider scrapping international flight agreements, which limit foreign shareholdings in airlines and restrict access to lucrative routes such as London to Hong Kong. The Open Skies agreement between the US and the European Union liberalised the transatlantic airline market this year, but talks on a second-stage agreement have stalled over the issue of lifting US ownership restrictions.

"We cannot fly to new markets without an international agreement. We cannot look beyond national borders to try new ideas, grow our business, access global capital, or merge and consolidate. We fight crisis after crisis with our hands tied because flags, not brands, define our business," said Bisignani.

Profitable airlines have raised fares and add-on fees over the past month, while the less financially secure, including UK-based Maxjet, Eos and Silverjet, have grounded their fleets and called in administrators. Bisignani warned there was no room left for cost cuts because airlines had increased fuel efficiency by 19% and reduced non-fuel costs by 18%. "There is no fat left," he said.

Ryanair, which was not at the conference, will report annual results today. It is expected to announce profits of about €484m (£383m), but that figure could halve over the next 12 months. According to reports, Europe's largest low-budget carrier might ground 10% of its fleet this winter to cut costs.

[KAG]

2nd June 2008 IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its industry financial forecast for 2008 significantly downwards to a loss of US$2.3 billion. The forecast uses a consensus oil price of US$106.5 per barrel crude (Brent). This is a swing of US$6.8 billion from the previously forecasted industry profit of US$4.5 billion that was announced in March and based on an average oil price of US$86 per barrel (Brent).

“For every dollar that the price of fuel increases, our costs go up by US$1.6 billion,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO at the Association’s 64th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit (WATS/AGM) which opened today in Istanbul, Turkey.

The industry’s total fuel bill in 2008 is expected to be US$176 billion (based on oil at US$106.5 per barrel) accounting for 34% of operating costs. This is US$40 billion more than the 2006 bill which was US$136 billion (29% of operating costs). In 2002, the bill was US$40 billion, equal to 13% of costs.

“We also need to take a reality check. Despite the consensus of experts on the oil price, today’s oil prices make the US$2.3 billion loss look optimistic. For every dollar that the oil price increases, we add US$1.6 billion to costs. If we see US$135 oil for the rest of the year, losses could be US$6.1 billion,” said Bisignani.

“The situation has changed dramatically in recent weeks. Oil skyrocketing above US$130 per barrel has brought us into uncharted territory. Add in the weakening global economy and this is yet another perfect storm,” said Bisignani.

“Oil is changing everything. There are no easy answers. In the last six years, airlines improved fuel efficiency by 19% and reduced non-fuel unit costs by 18%. There is no fat left. To survive this crisis, even more massive changes will be needed quickly. Air transport is a catalyst for US$3.5 trillion in business and 32 million jobs. This is an extraordinary crisis with the potential to re-shape the industry with impacts throughout the global economy. Governments, industry partners and labour must deliver change,” said Bisignani.

[KAG]

Wikipedia: effect of the 2000s energy crisis:


Although Peak oil theorists such as David Goodstein, Richard Heinberg, and others, had for years predicted sharp declines in air travel following the peaking of world oil production and its subsequent decline,[35] air travel enjoyed robust growth around much of the world spurred by low jet fuel costs starting in the mid-1980s. For example, air travel in the United States grew five times faster than population in the decades after 1978, with 769 million passengers boarding U.S. airline flights in 2007.[36] However, the run-up in oil prices after 2003 began eroding airline profits, and the further doubling of oil prices from May 2007 to May 2008 began to have a substantial impact on airline operations, forcing airlines to reduce flight schedules, and pushing weaker carriers into merger or bankruptcy. During the first half of 2008, at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations.
April 2008 began with four small airlines (Aloha Airlines, Champion Air, ATA Airlines and Skybus Airlines) ceasing operations in a period of a week. A fifth airline, Oasis Hong Kong Airlines ceased operations on April 9, 2008.[40] A sixth airline, Frontier Airlines filed for bankruptcy on April 11, 2008 to protect itself from its credit card processing company which was withholding airline ticket revenues. Frontier continues to operate under Chapter 11 and is working to get a new agreement with said company. Eos Airlines, a small specialty carrier with high costs, ceased operations on April 27, 2008. An eighth airline Nationwide Airlines ceased operations on April 29, 2008, due to the "impossibility" of profitably operating the Boeing 737-200 with oil prices of over $133 a barrel. The 737-200 is a 30 year old aircraft that is 30% less fuel efficient than new production 737's. On May 9, 2008, a ninth airline, EuroManx announced that it was ceasing all operations, citing rising fuel prices and reduced passenger numbers as the reasons.[41]

A 5% U.S. domestic capacity cut (since raised to around 15%) may be expanded to all airlines to save on fuel by eliminating older aircraft from their fleets similar to the exchange that took place in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Although a slightly larger cut happened in the aftermath of 9/11 (20%), this is the first time since the 1970s that airline service has been cut to save on fuel for the United States. Other airlines such as Ryanair and Scandinavian Airlines System have also cut capacity.[citation needed]

Increasing fuel prices also caused "deep downturns" in air travel within China and India, in favor of a return to ground travel.

[yardmaster]

WWW and 170to5 - are you all seriously suggesting that the economy is screwed and the long term outlook for the aviation industry is decline???

Where are you guys getting this from??? It is crackers.

Clearly none of you are economists. How many major countries' or regions' economies contracted last year? one (Spain). The IMF forecast none will contract this year - with global net growth of 4.2%.

Equity analysts, plane manufactorers and ICAO predit somewhere between 4-6% annual growth in the airline industry over the next 20 years. Even if not much growth comes from developed markets do you guys not see what is happening in Emerging markets?

OK, you don't have to believe the forecasts, but what about the airline industry historically? Passenger numbers have doubled every 15 years since 1970. Even in the last decade RPK (revenue passenger Kms) is up c15%.

Yes, oil prices are (one of the few) dark clouds on the horizon but consumers are getting used to inflationary pressures and besides, on average, fuel makes up 30% of an airlines cost. It's not exactly armageddon.

I just don't get where all this bearish mentaility from the forum comes from??? Aviation, like many other industries is cyclical - bad times follow good, good follows bad.

However Long term is good - please, chin up and be more positive!

[KAG]

7574ever: didn't see your post earlier, you have a point.

[Parson]

Yardmaster,

You make some relevant points but fortunately/unfortunately* (*delete as you feel appropriate), WWW has a good track record on the economic front - at least since I have been following pprune.

[170to5]

WWW, you and I should be put down, as we have introduced a negative slant on this positive discussion.

KAG, thank you for your help but we should be spurring these young guys on to train as quickly as possible, and we should be protecting them from doubt and alternative viewpoints.

Then when Ryanair and easyJet (in the next 2 years) stop expanding they can head out to China (until they have enough capacity to train their countrymen, at which point they will be given a handshake and a P45).

[cefey]

KAG
Its a lot of BS out there on the internett, you should filter some out and not believe every single thing you read.

So, lets say oil will go up to 200$. According to you, NO ONE will fly then, am I right?
So, oil prices going up by 30%. Ticket prices will go up by... lets say 10% (oil is not only expenses of companies, so they dont affect prices alone).

Let me ask you a question. What would YOU do (and anyone reasonable) in that situation:
a) Loose some millions dollars, and then go bankrupt with company, you had for 10-20 years.
b) Increase ticket price with 5-10% (from 100 to 110$), have profit and continue making money?!

Now, you think passengers, that did fly with your airline (and not someone else) for last 5-10 years, will go to a different carrier, because of those 10$? I can guarantee you, no they would not (basic psychology, we do what we are used to).
And last, comanies have other ways to cut the bill down, by setting down pay-checks, cutting down on food, service and so on.

As I said, do not believe everything you read on internett. Way to much BS. Do some thinking on your own.


And just to top it off. Latest new from kingdom of Norway.
Norwegian had 12% more passengers in february, then in the last year.
SAS is increasing their prices by 5 euro (that makes it ≈4.5%), because of high oil prices.

Funny... they think the way I do, and choose to increase prices instead of going bankrupt...

[yardmaster]

Sorry if you took offense, and a dose of negativity/realism is good for the aspiring pilots, such as myself, reading this forum.

However I think the bearishness sometimes gets to a ridiculous level.

The world's population is continueing to grow, economies are growing and more can afford to fly. If this is not the case we are all scr*wed, no matter what industry we are in!

There is no armageddon as long as Airlines offer the only practical way of travelling any journey above c500 miles.

The long term trend of the airlines has been growth, often rapid growth. Nothing fundamental has changed and it will continue, with cyclical volatility, untill someone invents the teleport.

[170to5]

It's one of things I suppose, people are over optimistic about this so others are overly pessimistic. Both sides are likely to be right about some things, and wrong about others.

I accept that flying is the only reasonable way of travelling long distances, but I would say that the market has been proved before to be very sensitive to price fluctuations, and while it would be utterly absurd to say that people will stop flying altogether, it doesn't take much for businesses to start preferring video conference calls (or whatever new-fangled technology they use nowadays) or for couples to decide to have their weekend break at home, or even worse not to take it at all - that's all it takes to cause chaos in aviation! Then, as I say, I don't think for one minute the whole sector will shut down, but the amount of flying will become unsustainable and we're back in 2008 before there's been a proper boom.

And cefey,

You make it sound like airlines choose to keep losing money and go bankrupt. In that case, you are very misguided, do you think any airline has ever decided that instead of raising fares they'll just go bankrupt? It happens because of market conditions, don't be so naive to think it's a conscious decision. Companies go bust because someone is doing it cheaper than they are.

I'm sorry to say that airlines have pretty much cut out everything they can to reduce ticket prices, all that remains is to ask whether somebody wants an outside or and inside seat. Do some looking at how many short-haul services include food and drinks, do not charge for baggage, do not charge for payment methods, and you may be surprised.

If flying does expand in the already overcrowded European marketplace, you may find salaries and T&C's nosediving. Think about that before you spend your £80,000.

[cefey]

170to5
Well, ofcourse oil will affect companies in some way. But imo not even close, to what KAG try to make it too.

like "During the first half of 2008, at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations."
Lets take a look at reality. Worldwide its nearly 100.000 companies that hold licens for commercial operation.
That mean 0.0025% of companies went bankrupt.
Well, of those 100.000, there is 80% that hold 1-2 planes. And fly only 2 destinations.
So, let take a look at only "decent sized" airlines. 20.000 of them in the world. 25 goes bankrupt.
That makes it to 0.12% of companies, went bankrupt because of high oil prices.
And lets not forget, that was CRISIS and not the oil prices that affected all that.

Now, its not me, that make it sound like companies choose to loose money. That KOGs words. What I say, companies will increase ticket prices with 5-10%, for each 30% increase in oil prices.


I dont say market will be awesome in 2-3 years and gonna stay that way forever.
But in 2-3 years, it will be "normal". That means you most likely still gonna need to work as CFI or something to build some experience first, but then you will be able to get a job.
Unless something big happens (9/11, crisis) or something big positive, market will stay that way and will be regulated by how many pilots quite/how many new get their licenses.
Its still will be expansion in fleets. Maybe not that much at Ryanair. But hey, there is still 10.000-20.000 other airliners but them.

As well, you have to consider, where are you willing to work. If you no way can move away from UK, then yes, you limit your opportunities. If you are willing to move to Italy or Spain (I would LOVE to do that!) or any other countries in europe, then suddenly market is much better.
Then you have to look at, are you willing to evt. pay for your type (another 20.000$, after spending 80.000)?
Another point to look at, are you willing to start at turboprop or you are "737 only"?!

If you are kind of guy, looking to get job after getting JAA ATPL with 200hrs, no MCC or Type (and you are not willing to pay for it), you looking at jobs only in the UK and only in heavy jets, then you are right guys, market will be very bad.
In other hand, if you do you CFI and get 1000+ hours, get your MCC, may be willing to pay for type, take your first job anywhere in europe and can start on Let, Dash or something like that... you will find that there is huge market for new pilots in 2-3 years.

Maybe Im wrong... but lets hope Im not :D

[Jerry Lee]

I totally agree with cefey. Market can't be always bad. It's already 3-4 years into the economic crisis; within 2 year it will get better. It is already picking up slowly. Just be patient and willing to work anywhere, even in Africa, Asia and Latin America if you have a good command of spanish.

However, this is a very difficult market. The aviation industry is one of the first industries to fall in crisis each 5 years (terrorism, economic, war, epidemic), and one of the last to get out of it.

[Grass strip basher]

It not just a questions as to whether the market picks up.... its is also a question as to whether the stucture of T&Cs once it picks up makes being a pilot a viable career choice for the next 20 years or so.

That is something that unfortunately the typical 18-22 yr old bracket has little perspective on because of a lack of life experience. Thats not meant as a criticism... I was very much the same at that age.

[KAG]

Lets take a look at reality. Worldwide its nearly 100.000 companies that hold licens for commercial operation.
That mean 0.0025% of companies went bankrupt.
Well, of those 100.000, there is 80% that hold 1-2 planes. And fly only 2 destinations.
So, let take a look at only "decent sized" airlines. 20.000 of them in the world. 25 goes bankrupt.
That makes it to 0.12% of companies, went bankrupt because of high oil prices.
And lets not forget, that was CRISIS and not the oil prices that affected all that.
You convinced me. Thank you.
Ok I ve got to fly, cheers.

[volunteerpilot]

Thank you for replies, it seems like the instructor route is better as far as job market is concerned and maybe CPL is more than enough.

[captainsuperstorm]

instructor or not, the market is the same for everybody.

as long airlines don't hire, flight schools have problems to train their students. Students will delay their training, etc.resulting no or less job for flight instructors.

in UK, I have many friends who were instructors, they had to give up, it doesn't pay enough for a living.

the main problem in this profession are the salaries, they are too low.
It's not possible to start in this profession anymore, training is too expensive.

whatever you choose in aviation, you are screwed.I was a captain, it' s harder and harder for us to find a job and have a decent life.Soon, captains will have to pay to fly. Some of my friends pay already for their sim check, hotels,...

To fly is wonderful but this profession became :yuk: .

[volunteerpilot]

It is sad that profession came to this when you consider the amount of skill and knowledge you need to be a pilot and then you end up paying to fly as well.
I am so glad that forums like this exist and you can talk to others in similar situation.
Being in my forties is not going to help with job search either so I will definitely stick to CPL and maybe part time instructing to keep my flying skills. Unless someone on this forum could advise that I am wrong and CPL/IR/ME 40 year old chap is employable without having to buy type ratings or Ryanairs pyramid schemes etc.?
To be frank, being only small time pilot and successful in another profession but probably a bit naive for airline industry, I cant believe it is legal to employ people and make them pay to work. Soon there will be a scheme where pilots will pay for passenger tickets as well so airlines can attract more customers . Maybe we could all brainstorm on how airline managements can make more money out of us ...

[cefey]

volunteerpilot
I do know my self, several guys, that did work hard and got their jobs.

One guy I know, after getting his FAA CPL ME IR is now flying in Brasil and enjoying life. Sure, he dont make tons of money. But enough to pay down his loans, pay for apartment, food and get drunk now and then.

Other guy, worked as CFI in US and UAE for 4 years. Now he is about to start at Lufthansa.

3rd guy, got his FAA CPL ME IR, now he is doing his JAA fATPL, after that, he will start for turkish airlines, since he has some friends there. (he is around 47yo btw)

This is just some of the stories. I know many more guys that have succeeded and enjoy pilot-life.
As well, I do know many guys, who paid 50-80k for education and now back where they started. Working on factory/gas station/grocery store. They keep complaining about bad marked and "hoping for better times".

Who are you listening to? A guy who calls him self "captainsuperstorm" on some forum? Do you even know, if he is a capt.? If he is a man? Maybe its just some 14yo forum troll having fun. I have never seen him helping anyone with any aviation questions... just whining around about bad marked....
But even if he is capt. You really on a guy saying "dont do you pilot education, marked will be worse and worse forever! In 10-15 years only pilots will be sons of 1000 richest people on the planet!". A guy who in no way can know, how is marked for fresh pilots!!!

Search for pilot jobs on internett. Many places there is requirement of 300-500TT. Get a job there. Work there for some years and then go for big airliner, which require 1500-2000TT.

[KAG]

Ok Cefey. Great. I am sure your positive attitude and good influence would convince a few more hundreds individuals to join our industry. Good job.
Positive attitude is great, especially when you are not responsible for anything or anybody.

How many students have you trained? How long have you been in this industry? Or maybe are you a wannabe who wants to reassure himself? If so don't put everybody in your personal boat. You are in charge of your life, that's all.
And I don't know the meaning of optimism in poetry or litterature, but this is aviation industry here.
We don't say in the briefing room: look this TAF, RVR is too low, sure, but what a challenge right? Let's go! And we don't need that much fuel, we will try to fly in outer space to save some. Look at our alternate, heavy snow, what you don't like snow we can play with snow balls after our arrival!!!

Your posts seem completely out of reality. You even deny the fuel major influence on the aviation industry in 2008, I think you have no clue about what's going on.

Ok I am going to tell you what is optimism in our career: this is to do everything to stay alive, or not make any foolish decision. This is to make everything you can to be well trained, informed, and never take anything for granted.
This is our industry.
If you want to hear: great, let's go! It will be fine! Let's do it! Future is bright! No cloud at all! Then go in the finance field. In our industry you will be paid to stay alive, not to be optimistic about the environment you cannot control.

[cefey]

KAG
Of course we dont look at TAF, see low RVR and go.
We rather wait for Clear of clouds, 10SM vis, we need to do some pattern work. But we say "You know what, lets not take a chance. Who knows, maybe there is some wind shears. Lets go play on microsoft sim and be happy with that!"

I dont see any relevance in your comparison.
Go for pilot education is not the same is "go out and die".

Im not denying anything. I just showed you facts. You make it sound sooo big, "Whole 25 companies went bankrupt!!!!" reality? that between 0.012 and 0.12% of all companies. Like it or not, that FACTS.

You still havent answered my questions.
Would you cancel your vacation, which you budgeted for 1500$, because ticket prices increased from 150$ to 160$? (So, no your vacation would cost 1510$).
Do you think many other would? Many enough, for whole aviation industry to collapse?

2nd question
You still think, increase in oil prices and not the global crisis, that affected all industries and made many major banks and companies go bankrupt, is real cause for crisis in aviation industry?
With other words, US-economy collapse because off loans and stuff, major banks and companies going bankrupt. People loosing their jobs, houses. All industries going down BIG TIME, cutting down production, firing people.
All but one. Aviation industry is not affected at all by crisis, thats forced whole world down on knees. Well, to be fair, aviation industry have really bad times, exactly like the rest of the world, but not because of crisis, aviation industry is suffering because of high oil prices?
Apparently, you dont have any clue, whats going on. You did read 1 article on internett and now you know everything.

Im not an optimist. Im a realist.
Is pilot market picking up?
Yes, it does.
Is it possible for an experienced pilot to get a job?
Yes, it is. Even for biggest and "best" companies.
Is it possible for low hour pilots get a job?
Very hard in big companies, but absolutely possible to get a job, to built hours.
Will pilot market continue to picking up?
Yes it will, if nothing major happens.

I dont clame that times will be amazing. Maybe. But tbh I doubt it. But market WILL be better then now. And it will be possible to get a job. Sure, you gonna have to work for it, nothing gonna come free.
But if you set your goal, work for it, is a little bit flexible, you'll get there.

[KAG]

Im not denying anything. I just showed you facts. You make it sound sooo big, "Whole 25 companies went bankrupt!!!!" reality? that between 0.012 and 0.12% of all companies. Like it or not, that FACTS.
You are showing me nothing, you take the numbers you want from the articles I posted here that you read with your special rosie's glasses. You are rationalizing one of the biggest aviation industry recession in the history.
You are in full denial.
You really want to speak about numbers? You say that there is 100 000 airlines in the world to come up with your 0.12 or 0.012% of airlines who went to bankrupcy in 2008, have you gone mad???? Did you know there is only around 200 countries in the world? If you take the numbers from one of the article a I posted speaking about 25 airlines going to bankrupcy, remove you rosie's glasses and listen:
1-they speak about first half of 2008 BEFORE THE BANK TURMOIL, DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
2-they speak about airlines, not about the daddy bush operation in Alaska, so forget about your 100 000 airlines number. Forget about your calculation
3-if you want to take all the commercial operation certificate in the world (bush, photo, para drop, medevac, small charter, float operation...), then do you beleive only 25 of them went to bankrupcy in 2008? Really?
3-have you heard about thousands of layoff, reduced capacities...?
4-finaly have you heard about 2008 at all? 2008 is not a troll on internet, cannot say the same thing about you.


The remaining part of your post looks like you are on drug.

What were you doing in 2008? What are you doing now? Maybe it would explain something, as you seem to live in an other world.

Aviation industry is not affected at all by crisis, thats forced whole world down on knees. Well, to be fair, aviation industry have really bad times, exactly like the rest of the world, but not because of crisis, aviation industry is suffering because of high oil prices?
Apparently, you dont have any clue, whats going on. You did read 1 article on internett and now you know everything.
I posted an article from IATA, do you even know what it means?

[cefey]

So you know fancy words like denial and rationalizing. Good for you.
They can apply to you as well, when you are denying and rationalizing my post.
Only difference, I do, somehow backup my words with some fact. All you come up with, is 1 article and... and thats it.

Well, my bad, I count not the only first 6 month, but whole year.
Now, do you have numbers, how many airliners there is? What does IATA count as airliner?
What I did found is 10.000 (bigger airline carriers) and up to 100.000 if we count small one as well.
That why, I write 0.0012 to 0.12%. So, even with "only" 10.000 airliners, % that went bankrupt is still very, very, very low.

[KAG]

They can apply to you as well, when you are denying and rationalizing my post. Don't take yourself for the world and its reality.


Only difference, I do, somehow backup my words with some fact. No you don't, everybody can see you do some calculation with numbers coming directly from your imagination.


All you come up with, is 1 article and... and thats it.
3 articles, one from IATA, the other from the GUARDIAN, the other from wikipedia. Any article, news, paper, TV... from 2008 and aviation are all saying the same. I could post as much as you want of those articles if you wanted. So find at least one article that proves what you said: aviation crisis in 2008 is not related for the most part to the fuel crisis, and 2008 aviation crisis is not one of the biggest of all time.

Well, my bad, I count not the only first 6 month, but whole year. And you still don't understand...
Yes those article speak about the aviation recession and bankrupcy during the first 6 months of 2008, but you keep saying it 's not oil that put our industry down, but the bank crash, followed by the recession. Their were no bank turmoil the first half of 2008, which part you don't understand.
I was employed during 2008, and I followed everything step by step, like companies parking hundreds of airplanes due to high oil price, like airlines going to bankrupcy, other puting thousands of pilot on layoff, other cancelling all the order, other cancelling routes, almost all freezing all hiring begining of 2008 due to oil prices when the world economy was booming and the bank turmoil was yet to come.
Are you going to wake up? Why don't you decide to be honnest and do some research yourself?

And stop coming with numbers from nowhere.
If you speak about 10 000 (before it was 100 000, or 20 000 in your post...)airlines according to your definition, so you have to find out how many of them (those same 10 000, or 20 000 or 100 000 you keep changing) went to bankrupcy in 2008 to start to make some calculation, that's not middle age anymore, and studies have to be accurates.

[volunteerpilot]

I am green behind the ears when it comes to aviation but travel very often in my job and must say that aircraft these days fly with about 30-40% of max capacity. Had a few flights to the USA and around Europe and it is always the same (would say max 50%).
But airlines know that some people will always fly and some train to be pilots.
Whilst studying ATPL theory, I met 2 guys who had a big inheritance and paying for CPLs and type ratings is easy for them. They would invest 150k or more but also get jobs more easily and soon recover the investment and enjoy the lifestyle.
For the rest of us, it is a mix of lottery and hard work. Guess, the best we can do is to keep informed through magazines, contacts and forums like this and try to be in the right place at the right time.
What chance would 40 year old CPL/IR/ME stand against 25 year old type rated with 500 hours airline flying?
Someone mentioned MPL earlier which will be done by OAA and Easy, I dread to think how much is that going to cost?
Even if you go for it, do you get 6 months contract with Easy at the end and then end up being elbowed out after 6 months as new batch of wannabes are coming in?
Anyone happens to know who are the masterminds behind these clever schemes?

[stuckgear]

Anyone happens to know who are the masterminds behind these clever schemes?


People who sit behind a desk believing theres a pilot shortage.

here's a fact, there isn't one, there are guys with time on type that cant get a job, T&C's are continually going down the pan. wage rises ? while the interest rate is going up, most are on a freeze or reduction, tip, look in the T&E thread on the flybe discussion.

as for flying in Africa to build time before getting that well paid job with a legacy carrier in Europe.. African operators are wanting people with time on type, just seen an F/O job in Africa on a Lear requiring 3000 total time and 500 on type as a minimum. the cheap operations running clunkers are using close to run out Russian aircraft with Russian crews that cant get a job back home, and the non-clunker operators have a pick of a bunch of European guys with currency fast eroding so can pick and choose as well. oh and Africa has plenty of pilots looking for work too.

oh and look in the R&N thread at the EASA FTL proposal thread... pilots flying fatigued are looking at being pushed further..

Getting a job overseas is getting tougher as countries are pulling down their shutters on working visas for pilots.

And with the likes of MPL's being thrown into the mix, any potential of the current recruitment lines is going to be well and truly shut down as a bunch of idiots are going to be hog tied to an MPL that they cant use elsewhere, or drop out of an MPL to convert over to a CPL at additional cost to find that the doors are shut because operators have bucket load of MPL guys that cant afford to go elsewhere and are going to have to suck up what ever they are offered, no matter how poor, because its that or the classifieds for any job.

it may not be what you want to hear and its not pessimism.. its reality.

this thread is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

[cefey]

KAG
if you read my post once more, you'll find out, I used 10.000-20.000 and 100.000 from the start.
And guardian and wikipedia is very reliable source. Like most reliable of all you could find.

As I said earlier. Put operation on hold for couple of months, stop hiring pilots - on thing.
Companies going bankrupt, firing people, very experienced pilots can get a job, and it stay this way for 3 years - totally different.

2 easy questions:
1. If there was none high oil price, but there was global crisis, would aviation still be as bad as it is today? (answer is yes btw).

2. If there was high oil-prices for a while, but none global crisis, would situation be as bad as it is today? (answer is no, not even close).

And you can argue and trying to prove your self as much as you want. Did high oil prices had influence on aviation? Yes.
Was it high oil prices that killed aviation for 3 years? No, that was global crisis. And THATS IT.
cheers matey



stuckgear
Take a look at jobs, there IS companies looking for people with low hours. And I, my self, do know people getting into cockpit after CFI and working in Africa.

[stuckgear]

cefey,

i've 16 years in this industry, and am currently in discussion on a job down in Africa. i've also lived there before. I think I have a better handle on reality than you do.

if this is a demonstration of your ability to process situational information, i'm sorry, but as a commercial pilot your career is going to be short.

[volunteerpilot]

So if there is 250hr type rated pilot from a good FTO or 1000hr single engine instructing etc. pilot, who would the airline go for?
I am sure there is a shortage of pilots, but highly qualified pilots with type rating on various types and airline experience etc., dont think there will ever be shortage of newbies.

[atpcliff]

Hi!

KAL, China, Emirates, Qatar, etc. DESPERATE for pilots.

T&Cs for the China contract positions have been going up, up, up.

Most regional airlines in the US are now filling only half of their new-hire classes. ALL of them have lowered their minimums. Some do not have ANY published minimums any more.

American, the airline in the US that has not hired for the longest time of any US airline, announced that they will run through their list of 1800 furloughees and begin hiring this year. USAir is hiring, Southwest is hiring, CAL/UAL will recall all furloughees and begin hiring as soon as the merger is straightened out.

Intntl cargo is going crazy and companies are adding airframes and crews as fast as possible.

In the US, new Flight/Duty/Rest rules go into affect prior to 1 Aug, and it will cause all carriers to need additonal crew: For example, at my airline, which is a very good one (I LOVE my job!), we will need 25% more pilots to cover the flying with the new rules. We are adding LOTS of planes. The new requirement for ALL Part 121 new-hires to posses the ATP (NOT a frozen ATPL, and NOT just the written tests) will go into affect 1 Aug 2013. ANY new hire FO in ANY -121 airlines will need a full ATP to sit in the right seat!

And, the pilot hiring tsunami has just begun!

[cefey]

superstorm
relaxe, I will;) Just like friends of mine did. No, dont be jealous:)

stuckgear
I do respect what you have achieved. And all your experience.
But perhaps we have different perspectives.
You see on "getting a job", from point of view of experienced guy.
I see it from "fresh-certified" pilot. People I do know, is quite "fresh" as well and they got jobs.
Please dont make any kind of assumptions, like how my carrier gonna be. That dont make you look like a professional pilot with 16 years in industry.
And again, I DO KNOW people, getting hired now. Why on earth do you try to convince me, about "its impossible to get a job". I know about several people that getting jobs, right now.
I have monitored job marked pretty closely for the last 2 years. Everything, from jobs at BA, KLM, SAS and to CFI jobs in US, Australia or jobs in Africa.
Market IS getting better and better. Minor, major companies, CFI. There IS a need for more pilots. Requirements is getting lower and lower.

[KAG]

KAG
if you read my post once more, you'll find out, I used 10.000-20.000 and 100.000 from the start. It just shows you have no clue, and you don't know which number to chose. It could be 1000 or 500 aswell. Where did you get you number: 25 airlines going to bankrupcy from?



And guardian and wikipedia is very reliable source. Like most reliable of all you could find.Better source than a wannabe. Did you forget to mention the IATA source on purpose, or you have memory probs?



As I said earlier. Put operation on hold for couple of months, stop hiring pilots - on thing.
Companies going bankrupt, firing people, very experienced pilots can get a job, and it stay this way for 3 years - totally different.Yes it is.



2 easy questions:
1. If there was none high oil price, but there was global crisis, would aviation still be as bad as it is today? (answer is yes btw).Answer NO: The lower is the oil price, the lower is the airfare, the more people buy tickets, the more the airline flies (or the less they ground airplanes). In addition have a look at the airlines profit, and the link with the fuel price.



2. If there was high oil-prices for a while, but none global crisis, would situation be as bad as it is today? (answer is no, not even close).



First half of 2008 world economy was booming, airlines were suffering, grounding airplanes, bankruptcy for some.



And you can argue and trying to prove your self as much as you want. Did high oil prices had influence on aviation? Yes.You are right.



Was it high oil prices that killed aviation for 3 years? No, that was global crisis. And THATS IT. High price induced a lot of airline bankrupcy till july 2008 with fuel price at $147. When the price went down (down to something like $25/30), thanks to the recession in 2009, much less companies went to bankrupcy.

[cefey]

It just shows you have no clue, and you don't know which number to chose. It could be 1000 or 500 aswell. Where did you get you number: 25 airlines going to bankrupcy from?
Sure I do. It shows at least I have SOME numbers, counter your... Nothing? Well, if I have no clue, then lets not even mention you..
As I said earlier (hey, you supposed to be proff. pilot? Why do I need to type same thing over and over again? No wonder marked is so bad for you... Explains quite a lot), Depends WHAT you call for airlines. 1 "Dash-8" or "at least 5 B737". Since you gave no nubmers what so ever, its very hard for me to specify.
Indeed, I dont have a clue (just like you), what your source is calling for "airline". Might as well be c-210, for all we know?
I asked you to specify, but you didnt:(

Where did you get you number: 25 airlines going to bankrupcy from?
From your own post. I guess you lack not only basic logic, but memory as well. Bad, bad combo for pilot...
at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations.
And just to make it clear (I know its hard with lack of logic), to make it easier and not guessing, who go bankrupt, who had to cease operation, I count all of them as "bankrupt" or you can call it "bad times" for whole 25 companies...

Did you forget to mention the IATA source on purpose, or you have memory probs?
Nope, cause I count IATA as reliable source. Which is quite logic... and quite logic that I dont mention it?
God, really, how on earth did you become pilot? Or did you...?

Yes it is.
Never, ever, ever change carier to economist, that my advice for you. And I really do mean all the best with it.


Answer NO: The lower is the oil price, the lower is the airfare, the more people buy tickets, the more the airline flies (or the less they ground airplanes). In addition have a look at the airlines profit, and the link with the fuel price.

I did ticket calculation for you several times. Even of oil-price go up by 30%, prices on tickets will go up by 10% (approximate).
Oil prices goes up by 100%, tickets up by 30%.
My vacation budget is 1000-2000$. Where tickets stands for 100-200$.
If tickets now will cost 130-260 (whole vacation package price will be 1030-2060) will I cancel my vacation?
Even if ticket price get dobbled (for that, Oil have to be 3x average price), will I cancel whole vacation (price will be 2200, instead of 2000), or will I just cut down on something else?
For sure, some people MAY cancel vacation. 90% will go somewhere cheaper.
Will that affect airliners THAT much, as you claim? No, not at all.

So, with other words, you mean, global crisis, that affected basically every singe company in the world and around 70-80% of population in i-countries, did NOT affect whole aviation industry what so ever?!:D I laugh and cry (of laughter):)))))))

Let me repeat. From your own post, whole 25 airlines, had bad times during first half of 2008.
End of 2009 - "a few more" companies experiencing bad time, ceasing operation. NO ONE hiring, its almost impossible even to get CFI job.

You know, its kind of like comparing: someone clap you on the chin (high oil prices) and then someone hit you on the head with baseball bat (crisis). And you gonna clame, that its clap that caused the brain damage.
Chin clap can be very hard and nasty. But you can never compare it to a good hit with the bat... So please, stop doing it:)


Was it high oil prices that killed aviation for 3 years? No, that was global crisis. And THATS IT.
High price induced a lot of airline bankrupcy till july 2008 with fuel price at $147. When the price went down (down to something like $25/30), thanks to the recession in 2009, much less companies went to bankrupcy.
Well, that exactly what Ive been telling you.
Oil prices really affected 25 companies.
Prob. more companies had unpleasant times, but nothing big. But, out of your own post (IATA-source), only 25 companies worldwide, was forced to cease operation or go bankrupt, during that time.
So what we ended up with? High oil-prices DID had impact on aviation. But it was only 25 companies that was affected major.

So, where aviation is today, was not caused by high oil-price back then. That affected maybe 1%. Lets even say 10%. But you still have 90% because of crisis.

So, if we gonna again have such high prices, will that "kill" aviation, like CRISIS did? No. It may give bad times for 6 months or even a year. But then it will be fine.

So it absolutely wrong, to claim that "oil prices is picking up again, aviation gonna be dead". Well, maybe companies gonna stop expending and stop HIRING for some time (while high oil prices, 6-12 months). But then good trend will continue.
Sure, it will be slightly more competitivity for a job, since it was little hiring for a year. But low-hour pilot will NOT have to compete with some1 with 15000hrs on type.
So marked is not that bad, unless you think we gonna have new global crisis.

PS: Im sorry if somewhere I was disrespectful or rued. I felt you stated that tone. And I dont like to type same thing n-times and people just ignoring it, and keep asking same question.
No offence.

john_smith
Thank you for your post. Its really nice to see (for a change), someone just saying their opinion and not claiming to know everything.

[KAG]

Sure I do. It shows at least I have SOME numbers, counter your... Nothing? Well, if I have no clue, then lets not even mention you..
As I said earlier (hey, you supposed to be proff. pilot? Why do I need to type same thing over and over again? No wonder marked is so bad for you... Explains quite a lot), Depends WHAT you call for airlines. 1 "Dash-8" or "at least 5 B737". Since you gave no nubmers what so ever, its very hard for me to specify.
Indeed, I dont have a clue (just like you), what your source is calling for "airline". Might as well be c-210, for all we know?
I asked you to specify, but you didntWhat a long sentence to admit you have no clue about which number you are using.


From your own post. I guess you lack not only basic logic, but memory as well. Bad, bad combo for pilot...
at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations.
And just to make it clear (I know its hard with lack of logic), to make it easier and not guessing, who go bankrupt, who had to cease operation, I count all of them as "bankrupt" or you can call it "bad times" for whole 25 companies...Exactly, from the wikipedia extract I gave you. What is an airline for wikipedia when they mention the bankrupcies? Let's have a look again at the full extract I gave you:

Although Peak oil theorists such as David Goodstein, Richard Heinberg, and others, had for years predicted sharp declines in air travel following the peaking of world oil production and its subsequent decline, air travel enjoyed robust growth around much of the world spurred by low jet fuel costs starting in the mid-1980s. For example, air travel in the United States grew five times faster than population in the decades after 1978, with 769 million passengers boarding U.S. airline flights in 2007.[36] However, the run-up in oil prices after 2003 began eroding airline profits, and the further doubling of oil prices from May 2007 to May 2008 began to have a substantial impact on airline operations, forcing airlines to reduce flight schedules, and pushing weaker carriers into merger or bankruptcy. During the first half of 2008, at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations.
April 2008 began with four small airlines (Aloha Airlines, Champion Air, ATA Airlines and Skybus Airlines) ceasing operations in a period of a week. A fifth airline, Oasis Hong Kong Airlines ceased operations on April 9, 2008.[40] A sixth airline, Frontier Airlines filed for bankruptcy on April 11, 2008 to protect itself from its credit card processing company which was withholding airline ticket revenues. Frontier continues to operate under Chapter 11 and is working to get a new agreement with said company. Eos Airlines, a small specialty carrier with high costs, ceased operations on April 27, 2008. An eighth airline Nationwide Airlines ceased operations on April 29, 2008, due to the "impossibility" of profitably operating the Boeing 737-200 with oil prices of over $133 a barrel. The 737-200 is a 30 year old aircraft that is 30% less fuel efficient than new production 737's. On May 9, 2008, a ninth airline, EuroManx announced that it was ceasing all operations, citing rising fuel prices and reduced passenger numbers as the reasons.

Let's review the example they give when they speak about what kind of airline went to bankruptcy:

Aloha Airlines 22 Boeing 737
Champion Air 16 Boeing 727
ATA Airlines 29 Boeing 737/757 DC10/Lockheed L-1011-500 Tristar
Skybus Airlines 17 Airbus 319, 62 in order
Oasis Hong Kong Airlines 5 Boeing 747 (and some in order when went to bankrupcy)
Frontier Airlines 50 Airbus, some embraer. (after this company went to bankrupcy an other one bought it.
Eos Airlines 6 Boeing 757
airline Nationwide Airlines 17 Boeing 737/727/767

2 points:
-If we take the numbers only from the few example they give us (and not the total 25 airlines they are thinking about), we already have 170 Boeing Airbus, so around 1500 pilots affected whitin 6 months. Do you realize what we are talking about in this article, what kind of airlines? Do you know what is 1500 pilots within 6 months? And I took only the few examples of the bankrupcy they gave, that's bot the entire list, and of course we don't mention all the airlines who didn't go to bankruptcy but got rid of part of their pilot.

-If you took your information (25 airlines went to bankrupcy within 6 months, first half of 2008) from this article, do you realise how much ridiculous are your numbers, like 100 000, 20 000 or 10 000 airlines?

Do you know the total number of Boeing/Airbus that are flying right now around the world?

Your calculations are completely crazy, they come from nowhere, yet you gave them to all of us as a FACT. Wake up.

[KAG]

Nope, cause I count IATA as reliable source. Which is quite logic... and quite logic that I dont mention it?
God, really, how on earth did you become pilot? Or did you...?
The article from IATA precisely said the fuel price created the airline crisis in 2008, so if you consider it as a reliable source, why you still arguying this fact? The IATA article says the same think about the fuel as the wikipedia and the Guardian article: OIL crisis: AIRLINE crisis.

[KAG]

Yes it is.

Never, ever, ever change carier to economist, that my advice for you. And I really do mean all the best with it.
When you write "totally different", and I answer "yes it is", it means I agree with you. If I did not I would have written: "no it's not".






Edit for spelling.

[KAG]

I did ticket calculation for you several times. Even of oil-price go up by 30%, prices on tickets will go up by 10% (approximate).
Oil prices goes up by 100%, tickets up by 30%.
My vacation budget is 1000-2000$. Where tickets stands for 100-200$.
If tickets now will cost 130-260 (whole vacation package price will be 1030-2060) will I cancel my vacation?
Even if ticket price get dobbled (for that, Oil have to be 3x average price), will I cancel whole vacation (price will be 2200, instead of 2000), or will I just cut down on something else?
For sure, some people MAY cancel vacation. 90% will go somewhere cheaper.
Will that affect airliners THAT much, as you claim? No, not at all.

So, with other words, you mean, global crisis, that affected basically every singe company in the world and around 70-80% of population in i-countries, did NOT affect whole aviation industry what so ever?! I laugh and cry (of laughter)))))))You can imagine anything you want about how much you are ready to pay for your holidays, in 2008 many airlines grounded many airplanes because they were not profitable due to oil price. Not profitable could mean (but not only) they were more expensive than an other airline, so couldn't sell all of they ticket. Open market. You cannot ask any price you want. Some passengers will go to see an other airline, change their option. You maybe not, but there are millions of passengers, and a small tendency is enough to make you lose profit. That's what happened begining of 2008.


Let me repeat. From your own post, whole 25 airlines, had bad times during first half of 2008.
End of 2009 - "a few more" companies experiencing bad time, ceasing operation. NO ONE hiring, its almost impossible even to get CFI job.

You know, its kind of like comparing: someone clap you on the chin (high oil prices) and then someone hit you on the head with baseball bat (crisis). And you gonna clame, that its clap that caused the brain damage.
Chin clap can be very hard and nasty. But you can never compare it to a good hit with the bat... So please, stop doing itIs that aviation you are talking about?

[KAG]

Well, that exactly what Ive been telling you.
Oil prices really affected 25 companies.
Prob. more companies had unpleasant times, but nothing big. But, out of your own post (IATA-source), only 25 companies worldwide, was forced to cease operation or go bankrupt, during that time.You got it completely wrong. IATA never mentioned 25 companies. Wikipedia mentions 25 AIRLINES, please refer to the wikipedia example of an airline going to bankruptcy to understand what they mean by airline.

Have a look again at the IATA article, they mention nowhere 25 companies:

2nd June 2008 IATA
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its industry financial forecast for 2008 significantly downwards to a loss of US$2.3 billion. The forecast uses a consensus oil price of US$106.5 per barrel crude (Brent). This is a swing of US$6.8 billion from the previously forecasted industry profit of US$4.5 billion that was announced in March and based on an average oil price of US$86 per barrel (Brent).

“For every dollar that the price of fuel increases, our costs go up by US$1.6 billion,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO at the Association’s 64th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit (WATS/AGM) which opened today in Istanbul, Turkey.

The industry’s total fuel bill in 2008 is expected to be US$176 billion (based on oil at US$106.5 per barrel) accounting for 34% of operating costs. This is US$40 billion more than the 2006 bill which was US$136 billion (29% of operating costs). In 2002, the bill was US$40 billion, equal to 13% of costs.

“We also need to take a reality check. Despite the consensus of experts on the oil price, today’s oil prices make the US$2.3 billion loss look optimistic. For every dollar that the oil price increases, we add US$1.6 billion to costs. If we see US$135 oil for the rest of the year, losses could be US$6.1 billion,” said Bisignani.

“The situation has changed dramatically in recent weeks. Oil skyrocketing above US$130 per barrel has brought us into uncharted territory. Add in the weakening global economy and this is yet another perfect storm,” said Bisignani.

“Oil is changing everything. There are no easy answers. In the last six years, airlines improved fuel efficiency by 19% and reduced non-fuel unit costs by 18%. There is no fat left. To survive this crisis, even more massive changes will be needed quickly. Air transport is a catalyst for US$3.5 trillion in business and 32 million jobs. This is an extraordinary crisis with the potential to re-shape the industry with impacts throughout the global economy. Governments, industry partners and labour must deliver change,” said Bisignani.

[KAG]

So, where aviation is today, was not caused by high oil-price back then. That affected maybe 1%. Lets even say 10%. But you still have 90% because of crisis. Don't try any calculation/percentage straight from your imagination. The truth is that you have no clue.


So, if we gonna again have such high prices, will that "kill" aviation, like CRISIS did? No. It may give bad times for 6 months or even a year. But then it will be fine.It will be fine? You still don't get it do you?


So it absolutely wrong, to claim that "oil prices is picking up again, aviation gonna be dead". Well, maybe companies gonna stop expending and stop HIRING for some time (while high oil prices, 6-12 months). But then good trend will continue.
Sure, it will be slightly more competitivity for a job, since it was little hiring for a year. But low-hour pilot will NOT have to compete with some1 with 15000hrs on type.
So marked is not that bad, unless you think we gonna have new global crisis. Each time we have a fuel crisis (1973, 2008), each time aviation is directly affected.



PS: Im sorry if somewhere I was disrespectful or rued. I felt you stated that tone. And I dont like to type same thing n-times and people just ignoring it, and keep asking same question.
No offence. If you are a student pilot as I think, you'd better start to make contacts instead of saying everybody is wrong if you want to have more chance to land a job.

[PPRuNe Towers]

01/01/2008 Alpi Eagles
06/01/2008 Aero Airlines
08/01/2008 BRTJ BritishJet.com
23/01/2008 CST Coast Air
14/01/2008 FFP Prima Charter
30/01/2008 City Star Airlines
11/02/2008 VID Aviaprad Airlines
29/02/2008 Boston-Maine Airways
08/03/2008 BigSky
13/03/2008 GirJet
18/03/2008 DHI Adam Air
25/03/2008 QSC African Safari Airways
30/03/2008 Freedom Air
30/03/2008 Airclass Airways
31/03/2008 JAA Japan Asia Airways
29/04/2008 NTW Nationwide Airlines
28/04/2008 AAH Aloha Airlines
02/04/2008 AMT ATA Airlines
09/04/2008 OHK Oasis Hong Kong Airlines
27/04/2008 ESS Eos Airlines
20/04/2008 VCX Ocean Airlines
07/04/2008 SKB Skybus Airlines
05/04/2008 SYW Skyway Airlines
11/04/2008 SWX Swazi Express Airways
03/05/2008 Mihin Lanka
13/05/2008 AOL Angkor Airways
09/05/2008 EMX Euromanx
13/05/2008 FEA Far Eastern Air Transport
23/05/2008 Club Air
30/05/2008 SLR Silverjet
31/05/2008 CCP Champion Air
10/06/2008 Magnicharters
11/06/2008 Aerocondor
16/07/2008 Yeti Airlines
21/07/2008 Ankair
21/07/2008 One-Two-Go
29/07/2008 Riau Airlines
13/08/2008 GCO Gemini Air Cargo
04/08/2008 SER Aerocalifornia
05/08/2008 Avolar
05/08/2008 Nova Air
28/08/2008 OOM Zoom Airlines
28/08/2008 UKZ Zoom Airlines (UK)
09/09/2008 FUA Futura International Airways
09/09/2008 FGL Futura Gael
11/09/2008 Air Bee
12/09/2008 XLA XL Airways UK
15/09/2008 APKX Air Pack Express
15/09/2008 AeBal
17/09/2008 Dalavia Russia
06/10/2008 Galaxy Airlines (Japan)
09/10/2008 Lagunair Spain
16/10/2008 Flysur Spain
17/10/2008 LTE Spain
17/10/2008 Omskavia
17/10/2008 Interavia
17/10/2008 Tesis
17/10/2008 Vyborg Airlines
18/10/2008 Hansung Airlines
20/10/2008 Flysur
21/10/2008 Aladia (Mexico)
29/10/2008 Sterling AirwaysAirlines
31/10/2008 Air Comet (Chile)
31/10/2008 Kras Air
01/11/2008 Domodedovo Airlines
08/11/2008 Alma (Mexico)
11/11/2008 Inter Airlines (Turkey)
01/12/2008 European Aviation Aircharter
01/12/2008 Primaris Airlines
01/12/2008 Siem Reap Airways International
03/12/2008 Flightline
06/12/2008 OK Air

[cefey]

And I took only the few examples of the bankrupcy they gave, that's bot the entire list, and of course we don't mention all the airlines who didn't go to bankruptcy but got rid of part of their pilot.

Cool. Now, thanks to PPRuNe Towers, I looked randomly at 5 companies.
Alpi Eagles 8 foker 100, 2 boeing
AirClass Airways 1 boeing.
Omskavia 3 Tu154
Vyborg Airlines 2 Il
Siem Reap Airways International - 3 airplanes

In that article, it said, 25 companies, went bankrupt OR ceased their operation. So, it was 25 companies that went bankrupt. "25" is including ceased operation.

So, out of 5 companies I googled, 60 pilots lost their jobs (3 pilots for 1 airplane).
You must have used quite much time, to find companies with 16 or even 50 airplanes:)) Too bad PPRuNe Towers towers published the list and I could google it:((

So, 25 companies WORLDWIDE going bankrupt. Biggest on is 50 airplanes, smallest one is 1 airplane. Average is like 10? No exactly something you call major airliner.
So it seems like your wiki-article is counting for airliners, any companies that have 1 or more jets.
So, how many companies around the world, own at least 1 jet-plane? For sure more then 10.000.
To compare, in 2006 SAS had around 2500 pilots. Since then they have increased their fleet quite much.
So, all pilots that lost their jobs, due to high oil-prices is something like 1 major company.

Now, lets think for a while. Do companies go bankrupt from time to time? Sure they do.
So, oil-crisis just killed 25 minor companies, that already had big issues?

And as a result, no one hiring for 3 years, not even pilots with 2000+hrs on type.


I still stand by my word.
Did doble in oil price had impact in aviation? Yes.
Is situation we have today, caused by that? No, global crisis have to take the blame.
90% global crisis, 10% oil prices.


Do you want to be my best friend and get me a job? Ill buy you a beer. What do you like, Guinness or Corona?:)
Cheers:)

[v6g]

Did doble in oil price had impact in aviation? Yes.
Is situation we have today, caused by that? No, global crisis have to take the blame.
90% global crisis, 10% oil prices.

But a large part of the global crisis WAS caused by the oil price.

Expensive oil doesn't just add to the price of an air ticket, it also makes it more expensive to get to work, to buy food, to heat your house - in short it takes a good chunk out of discretionary expenditure. Hint: discretionary expenditure is what pays the salaries of most pilots.

Why was it then, that the first neighbourhoods in US cities that started seeing house price declines were the exurbs (the most distant from the city centres)? And why is it that those worst hit continue to be the sprawliest, most spread out cities.

Why also were countries that had no sub-prime lending also hit by the recession (eg Japan)?

-----

I've also seen well-reasoned arguments that the financial crisis was a result of previously-very-cheap oil. The argument goes that cheap oil led to 2 decades of cheap transport costs, which led to the worlds manufacturing being moved to China. The vast amount of cheap unskilled factory labour available led to constant economic growth in rich countries without causing inflation. Low inflation led to cheap (and hence easy) money. All was going well until oil started becoming less cheap.

It's an interesting theory, not sure I agree with it, but it seems a plausible explanation.

[BoeingDreamer]

But Cefey, you already say you have an interview lined up for 3 companies, on the Norwegian forum! Why you need help to find a job?

How you reckon 3 pilots for each aircraft?
I am no expert but would think 1 aircraft would at least keep 6 to 10 pilots in work, I am sure someone here are more expert then me on this could probably elaborate better on this.

Also it is not just companies going out of business that has caused loss of jobs, also companies cutting down on staff, and some changing to P2F schemes, means less people to fill those jobs, that normally would have been FO jobs.

Get some real knowledge and life experience before you make such school boy comments!

You talk about SAS increasing their fleet so much, so how many pilots have they hired since 2006?
More aircraft, are you calculating this as they took over wideroe and got SAS Braathen?

You need to improve your maths or history lessons!

[BoeingDreamer]

Also one thing more Cefey, in 2001 SAS had 194 aircraft, and in 2011 they Have 140 aircraft!

I assume you not to strong with maths!

[Grass strip basher]

Cefey = Troll.... or idiot.... or both?
Its not impossible to get a job no. But you may feel differently about aviation as a career in 5-10 years time when your T&Cs are in the dirt and you can't support the lifestyle your family wants.
There have been many like Cefey in the past... will be many like him in the future... :bored:

[captainsuperstorm]

Dear Cefey,

get your license then we can speak man to man...

if you want my point of view, you will be better if you forget this job-hobby.
I am not saying it 's not for you, I am saying than wanabes going on this path, will soon have their face in the dirt, with a pile of debt on their head.(Their face will be smashed in thousand of pieces so heavy their debt will be...)

even if you find a job, for how long? what pay? under what condition,...what kind of **** life you will get.and think you will have to pay back 1000 euro a month for over 10 years, and make maybe no money.

Want sleep in your car?, or stay with your mom or dad all your life because you are unable to make a living by yourself when 20 yo guys from university are studding to become doctor, lawer or engineer and they will all make money to feed their family?.

Or you can still stay with your little girlfriend, and your girlfriend will feed you with her own money when you stay all day long at home looking for a job and she will quit you because you are a pilot loser like many of us.

you will never cut back your "investment".at 40 or even 30 , you will be jobless like many.you think you will be lucky, ahah, heared that many times. why don't you send your cv to SAS, they are waiting for you.:E or finnair, they say they have a pilot shortage.

this profession is dead, more experience you have , less attractive you become thanks to these P2F scams.
it' s like kids who want be "F1" driver or hollywood star or #1 tennis player... forget about it.

get real, get a life,...

[KAG]

Cool. Now, thanks to PPRuNe Towers, I looked randomly at 5 companies.
Alpi Eagles 8 foker 100, 2 boeing
AirClass Airways 1 boeing.
Omskavia 3 Tu154
Vyborg Airlines 2 Il
Siem Reap Airways International - 3 airplanes

In that article, it said, 25 companies, went bankrupt OR ceased their operation. So, it was 25 companies that went bankrupt. "25" is including ceased operation.

So, out of 5 companies I googled, 60 pilots lost their jobs (3 pilots for 1 airplane).
You must have used quite much time, to find companies with 16 or even 50 airplanes) Too bad PPRuNe Towers towers published the list and I could google it(

So, 25 companies WORLDWIDE going bankrupt. Biggest on is 50 airplanes, smallest one is 1 airplane. Average is like 10? No exactly something you call major airliner.
So it seems like your wiki-article is counting for airliners, any companies that have 1 or more jets.
The pprune towers list has 70 airlines, do you realize it? Different than 25, you understand?
The number of pilot for 1 airplane in my company is 8.
You use numbers with absolutly no knowledge to justify yourself in a way I have seldom seen.
You are the one wanting to put all the 2008 crisis only in those 25 airlines anyway, without knowing which ones you are talking about. And know you are completely lost with numbers, still want to make some calculation to explain us with FACTS that there were no crisis in 2008. That's almost sick.
2008 was a global aviation crisis, my company got rid of 60% of its fleet at that time. Our fleet begining 2008 was more important than the one we have today. Begining 2008 my airline forecast for 2011 was 200% more airplanes than we actually have now. In 2008 we downsized, 2009 it was easy to make some profit with a fuel at $30 sometimes (today it's $110), and we were recovering, my company got at that time (during the economic crisi) a few airplane back.



So, how many companies around the world, own at least 1 jet-plane? For sure more then 10.000. Quit finding numbers out of your imagination, that's just silly. More than 10.000 airlines (wikipedia use airline, don't change the word) with 1 or more than 1 jet?

To compare, in 2006 SAS had around 2500 pilots. Since then they have increased their fleet quite much.
So, all pilots that lost their jobs, due to high oil-prices is something like 1 major company.

Now, lets think for a while. Do companies go bankrupt from time to time? Sure they do.
So, oil-crisis just killed 25 minor companies, that already had big issues? 25? you just said you googled your information from the pprune towers list, which has 70 airlines.
Anyway no, oil crisis did more than that, it touched all the airlines in the world, that's why it was a crisis, one of the aviation crisis the most important ever.

I still stand by my word.
Did doble in oil price had impact in aviation? Yes.
Is situation we have today, caused by that? No, global crisis have to take the blame.
90% global crisis, 10% oil prices.Again with your numbers and calculation from your imagination and feelings, we are back in middle age, that is really not serious.

[KAG]

Anyway, cefey, I do beleive that you may see the 2008 aviation crisis slightly different now, than in your first post you completely denied the fuel price:
Cefey wrote:KAG
And what happend in 2008? You blame "high oil prices" and not global crisis for bad times in aviation?

And just to make it clear - high oil prices are in no way responsible for crisis.
High oil prices "helped" and prolonged crisis, but in no way what so ever they was the reason.

And that exactly is a problem here. People blaming anything for "bad times" but the real causes.If you further your studies (which won't be hard to do at your level), you may learn that inflation, speculation, and oil prices (our economy is an oil economy) was one of the trigger concerning the economy crisis, in addition to be the main cause (oil price) of the airlines crisis in 2008. The best proof is that airlines crisis started before the economy turmoil, when oil prices were peacking. I know you will continue to argue that, prefering your own imagination and internal calculations on some particular events, but many of the ppruners here were flying begining of 2008 and remember what happened. Here are the official causes of the 2008 recession:The decade of the 2000s saw a global explosion in prices, focused especially in commodities and housing, marking an end to the commodities recession of 1980–2000. In 2008, the prices of many commodities, notably oil and food, rose so high as to cause genuine economic damage, threatening stagflation and a reversal of globalization.

In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year. In July 2008, oil peaked at $147.30 a barrel and a gallon of gasoline was more than $4 across most of the U.S.A. The economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008 caused a dramatic drop in demand and prices fell below $35 a barrel at the end of the year. The high of 2008 may have been part of broader pattern of spiking instability in the price of oil over the preceding decade This pattern of spiking instability in oil price may be a product of Peak Oil. There is concern that if the economy was to improve, oil prices might return to pre-recession levels.

The food and fuel crises were both discussed at the 34th G8 summit in July 2008.

Sulfuric acid (an important chemical commodity used in processes such as steel processing, copper production and bioethanol production) increased in price 3.5-fold in less than 1 year while producers of sodium hydroxide have declared force majeure due to flooding, precipitating similarly steep price increases.

In the second half of 2008, the prices of most commodities fell dramatically on expectations of diminished demand in a world recession







To try to come back on track, the subject being is the market picking up at all, here is an IATA report concerning 2011:

Outlook Downgraded to $8.6 Billion - High Oil Price Cuts Airline Profits by Almost 50% (http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2011-03-02-01.aspx)

Date: 2 March 2011

Outlook Downgraded to $8.6 Billion - High Oil Price Cuts Airline Profits by Almost 50%
Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its airline industry outlook for 2011 to $8.6 billion from the $9.1 billion it estimated in December 2010. This is a 46% fall in net profits compared to the $16 billion (revised from $15.1 billion) earned by the industry in 2010. On expected industry revenues of $594 billion, the $8.6 billion 2011 profit equates to a net profit margin of 1.4%.

“Political unrest in the Middle East has sent oil over $100 per barrel. That is significantly higher than the $84 per barrel that was the assumption in December. At the same time the global economy is now forecast to grow by 3.1% this year—a full 0.5 percentage point better than predicted just three months ago. But stronger revenues will provide only a partial offset to higher costs. Profits will be cut in half compared to last year and margins are a pathetic 1.4%,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Forecast highlights:
Fuel: IATA raised its 2011 average oil price assumption to $96 per barrel of Brent crude (up from $84 in December), in line with market forecasts. Including the impact of fuel hedging, which is roughly 50% of expected consumption, this will increase the industry fuel bill by $10 billion to a total of $166 billion. Compared to levels in 2010, oil prices are now expected to be 20% higher in 2011. Fuel is now estimated to represent 29% of total operating costs (up from 26% in 2010).

Growing economies give airlines the opportunity to recover some of these added costs with additional revenues. For example, since early 2009, rising oil prices added 25% to unit costs while average fares (excluding surcharges) rose 20%. But in 2011 higher revenues are not expected to be sufficient to prevent the rise in oil prices from causing profits to shrink by 46% from 2010 levels.

Demand: An increase in global GDP forecasts to 3.1% (from 2.6% in December) bodes well for continuing strong demand for air transport. In line with this, IATA revised its passenger demand growth forecast to 5.6% (from 5.2%) and its cargo growth forecast to 6.1% (up from 5.5%). Overall, this will generate a 5.7% expansion in tonne kilometers flown.

Capacity: Published airline schedules indicate a capacity increase of 6%, slightly lower than the 6.1% previously forecast. Of this, 5% will come from the 1,400 new aircraft being introduced to the fleet over 2011. The additional 1% is expected to come from the normalization of underutilized capacity in the twin-aisle fleet.

Yields: With capacity expected to increase by 6% in 2011 and demand by 5.7%, the gap is 0.3 percentage points. This has narrowed from the previously forecast gap which was 0.8 percentage points. While there has been some weakening in passenger load factors, as of January they remained near record levels at a seasonally adjusted 77.7%. Freight load factors are also high compared to previous cyclical peaks. These tightening supply and demand conditions give scope for yield improvements. Passenger yields are expected to grow by 1.5% (up from the previous forecast of 0.5%) and cargo yields by 1.9% (up from the previous forecast of no growth).

Premium Travel: Premium traffic is an important contributor of a network airline’s profitability. Purchasing managers’ confidence is a leading indicator for business travel. In January, the JP Morgan/Markit Purchasing Managers Index hit a record high. Moreover, strong corporate reporting at the end of 2010 and expanding world trade will continue to drive business travel in 2011, albeit at a slower pace than we saw during the 2010 post-recession rebound.

Risks: Rising oil prices are always a challenge for airline profitability. If they are accompanied by strong growing economies and world trade, airlines have some opportunity to command prices that can offset the rising fuel costs. If, however, rising energy prices stall global economic growth there is a strong downside risk to this forecast. With oil prices now being driven by speculation on geopolitical events in the Middle East rather than strengthening economic growth, this is a significant downside risk.

“This year the industry is performing a balancing act on a very thin tight-rope of a 1.4% margin. It is a structural problem that the industry has faced with an average margin of just 0.1% over the last four decades. There is very little buffer for the industry to keep its balance as it absorbs shocks. Today oil is the biggest risk. If its rise stalls the global economic expansion, the outlook will deteriorate very quickly,” said Bisignani

IATA also highlighted the risk of increasing taxation, particularly in price sensitive leisure markets. In 2010, the industry saw new and increased taxes in the range of 3-5% of ticket prices in the UK, Germany and Austria. Recently, Iceland, India and South Africa have joined with plans for additional taxation. “This is a price sensitive business. Aviation has the power to stimulate economies. But that ability is being compromised by adding taxes at a time when we are struggling to cope with high fuel prices just to maintain anemic margins,” said Bisignani.

Regional highlights:
Asia-Pacific carriers are expected to deliver the largest collective profit of $3.7 billion and the highest operating margins of 4.6%. This is down substantially from the $7.6 billion that the region’s carriers made in 2010 and from the previously forecast $4.6 billion for 2011. While the strong economic growth in the region is still driving profitability, inflation fighting measures in China are slowing trade and air cargo demand. The key reason for the downgrade from December’s forecast is that the region is more exposed to higher fuel prices, due to relatively low hedging on average.

North American carriers are expected to deliver $3.2 billion profit, unchanged from the previous forecast and down from the $4.7 billion profit made in 2010. Higher oil prices will damage profitability in 2011, but earlier cuts in capacity have led to much stronger conditions for yields than elsewhere. The US economy has also been stronger than expected. Compared to our December forecast, better revenues in 2011 will offset higher fuel costs.

European carriers are expected to make a $500 million profit. This is up from the $100 million previously forecast, but well below the $1.4 billion that the region’s carriers made in 2010. It is the carry-over from better than expected 2010 second-half performance that has led to forecast revisions. The ongoing banking and government debt crisis are keeping domestic home markets fragile. But the weak Euro is continuing to provide stimulus to export industries, outbound freight and long-haul business travel which is driving the upgrading of the region’s profit forecast. Even so, Europe’s carriers remain the least profitable among the major regions with an EBIT margin of 1.1%.

Middle East carriers are expected to return a profit of $700 million. This is considerably better than the $400 million previously forecast, but down from the $1.1 billion profit that the region posted in 2010. Political instability in the region is expected to take its toll in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya which combined account for about 20% of the region’s international passenger traffic. This is balanced by the Gulf area which benefits from economic activity related to high oil prices and whose hubs continue to win long-haul market share. Load factors have also improved significantly for these airlines, as new capacity is being added at a slower pace than demand increases.

Latin American carriers are forecast to post a $300 million profit. This is down sharply from the $1 billion that the region made in 2010 and from the previously forecast $700 million. Strong economic growth and international trade in the region are driving travel and cargo demand and the region’s profits for airlines. Exposure to higher oil prices is the key reason for the expected deterioration in the region’s profitability this year.

African carriers are expected to break even. This is unchanged from the previous forecast but down from the $100 million profit that the region posted in 2010. Strong economic and transport demand growth on the back of foreign direct investment and rapidly growing trade links with Asia is keeping the region’s carriers out of the red. However, they face intensifying competition from Middle Eastern carriers and others for lucrative business traffic.

[stuckgear]

KAG,

Give it up ! Haven't you worked it out ? At 23 cefey is an aviation god, fountain of all knowledge. The Oracle of Aviation. At 23 he's reached this heady height without even an fATPL or even 5 years in management. Those who have been in this industry for decades, working on different continents, as cefey says, 'are not professionals'. :hmm:

Good luck KAG, there's none so blind as those that don't want to see.

The 'know it alls' become too prevalent in these threads and despite other imparting the benefit of experience, they just don't want to know, unless it fits in with the glossy brochure from the FTO.

[cefey]

I did have a very nice 30min chat with 2 SAS pilots (capt and FO).
Both of them was very positive.
To sum it up shortly:
"Right now, it is maybe the best time to take pilot education. After big crisis, aviation is quickly picking up again. In 3 years it will be major need for pilot in most european companies, unless anything major happens of course."

I was very happy to hear that. Quite much the same as I have been typing here for a month.

My dear "stuckgear", for sure, I dont know everything. Neither do you. But you know, when I hear REAL pilots, that I saw my self land a B737, say "its perfect timing for education"... well, I tend to beleive them, rather then "someone" who calles him self for "stuck-gear" on a forum. For all I know, you maybe be 17yo and not even have PPL.


KAG
I never denied influence of oil prices "at all". Maybe I just did express my self a bit wrong.
But my words was, high oil prices stands for 10%, global crisis stands for 90% of situation we are in today.
I see you dont like my "imagination numbers". Please, be so kind and calculate, exactly, how much aviation industry was affected by global crisis and how much it was affected by doubling in oil prices in 1 year. I insist on that, since you ALWAYS comment on my numbers.


Cefey = Troll.... or idiot.... or both?
Its not impossible to get a job no. But you may feel differently about aviation as a career in 5-10 years time when your T&Cs are in the dirt and you can't support the lifestyle your family wants.
There have been many like Cefey in the past... will be many like him in the future...
Thank you for your attempts on trying to insult me. People do that in discussions, when they are not able to come with any good and valid argument.
Now, I have to ask you, not to adress any more post to me, or name me.
I really do enjoy discussing different subject with smart people, cause I do learn quite much from it.
But if all you can do is "name-calling", you should rather go to kindergarden, there is more your style of argumentation.

v6g
Global crisis was building up over a time. It actually started in mid 2007 and was building until mid 2008.
Its very many various factors that impacted it, but high oil prices for 1 year, was not one of those, since oil prices vary very much in price all the time.
Actually, DROP in oil prices, caused crisis to increase highly in russia, norway and other countries, importing much oil.
But lets not talk about that. Its not the right forum and its way to big issue.

[Grass strip basher]

No problem Cefey it was my pleasure... thank you for making it so easy for me to point out what an arrogant young man you come across as.

Perhaps print off this thread and show it to the "real" pilots you are talking about and see what their reaction is..... they will probably think you are a complete Sky God.

Good luck with your training. No one knows what the job market will be like in 1-2 years time when you pop out of the training sausage machine. That is what experienced, older people on here are trying to tell you. Nothing more nothing less. Today the job market may be picking up but this is irrelevent for someone like yourself just starting training. It matters for those now finishing their training and gambled 1-2 years ago. Fair play to them, that took some balls.

As for me going back to "kindergarden"... yep I have to drop my little boy off most days so funnily enough that is the one thing which you have probably got right ;)

[KAG]

"Right now, it is maybe the best time to take pilot education. After big crisis, aviation is quickly picking up again. In 3 years it will be major need for pilot in most european companies, unless anything major happens of course." Something major like what? Nuclear threat? ;-)








Grass strip basher wrote:
It matters for those now finishing their training and gambled 1-2 years ago. Fair play to them, that took some balls.True. With everything else being equal, it's always better to start the training when the aviation industry is down. Starting when it's picking up, that's already too late. Something we will never understand.






Cefey, I truly understand what you want: a good future for the career path you have chosen. And who knows, it may happen for whatever reason.
Speaking about the aviation industry issues doesn't automatically condemn your choice. There is no "right" or "wrong" in our carrer choice, because many pilot have passion, and some of us would have never done anything else anyway.
I say that because I sense you directly linked your choice with the future of our industry. Believing in your choice means beleiving in the future of aviation for you. It's wrong: better to assume a choice with the eyes wide open. I am even going to tell you: it's even possible to enjoy to be a pilot in 2011.
But don't fool yourself, no being able to observe the real issues won't guaranty you hapiness nor career achievement.

[BoeingDreamer]

No Cefey is an arrogant ****!

Going on on one of the nordic forums that most pilots without work are because of their own making, and because they do not bother look in every corner of Africa or Asia, if they do there would be work for them. And that he already before starting his ATPL theories, have 3 interviews lined up for job, 1 with a Norwegian airline, pretty good, must be SAS or Norwegian, who neither take in low hour pilots!
+ another 2 major carriers, with 50+ aircraft in fleet!
Then goes on bashing all others without work of just being lazy and not bothering to look hard enough for work!!!

At best that is Ingorant, at worst it is Arrogant! :ugh:

[Cactus99]

This guy has to be a troll! How can someone be so naive.:rolleyes:

Just because 2 pilots say it looks good, it must be okay then and everyone on here is wrong!!:ugh:

Do us a favour Cefey and frequent another forum and leave the professionals to it. I hope I never have to fly with you on the flightdeck one day!

Stuckgear: excellent post, on the money!:ok:

[cefey]

lol
it seems like you trying to make it into forum on whiners, who for some reasons (I believe most of them is personal issues) cant get a job.

Now, lets make it clear, since I dont know you guys personal, I will not make any assumptions, as some people do it on this forum (many examples in last 20 post in this tread).
However, it must be a reason for so many people whining about "impossible to get a job", while calling your self professionals. Its reminds me about one of instructors we had at out school. Middle age guy, 14.000TT most of them in small jet. But no one would hire him. And I think he got fired from his CFI job as well btw... Reason is not "bad market", but him being one of the biggest ***holes I ever saw in my life.
My point is, not everyone here is like that, no doubts about that. Someone may actually had bad luck for last couple years, someone had luck but have a different opinion then me. However, the rest is... well, kind of like that instructor. Get positive attitude toward your self, aviation and other people and you actually may see a light in the end of the tunnel.


KAG i started my education 2 years ago. Ill finish it off in 8-9 months from now. And that my point in this (and some other) treads. I know people who got their jobs. Several of them. Market is NOT dead, it is possible to get a job with right attitude and hard work.


BoeingDreamer
Please, stop spamming and trolling. In your last 20 post on this forum, I saw maybe 1-2 relevant and objective posts. Rest was just whining or complaining, or trying to offend someone. Dont you have anything better to do? But honestly? I answered you once or twice on nordic forum, after you asked me about something. And now you chasing me in every thread. Get a life, dude, get a life.

[BoeingDreamer]

Don't flatter yourself Cefey, your last post shows the right attitude, keep that going and good luck with your job search in 8 - 9 months.

Some of your posts are a load of nonsense, I am not here to lecture you or anybody else.

However there are others here, much wiser and more experienced then you and me, which you completely ignore, you seems to be infatuated in yourself and how great and unique you are compared to the rest of us losers out here.

All I can say, is welcome to the ride, it will be an unpleasant one, but you will end up wiser afterwards. Sorry, but I know in Norway many people have a very naive and innocent attitude to life, I am sure in this business long enough and that will improve.

The best options today are Ryan Air, if you want to get into airlines directly, if you don't manage to get into them, that's when the panic button will start, because there are not many else that will take you on. However with your attitude, you won't even get in with RYR! :p

[yardmaster]

I'm with cefey on this one.

Aviation isn't the only tough industry around and sometimes you have to make your own luck.

[BoeingDreamer]

Agree, it is not the only tough one. I done business/self employed for 20 years, that's tough.

But how many jobs do you see they ask you to put up £35.000 to get work experience, and then they kick you out after you finish, and get the next one in!

[cefey]

BoeingDreamer
I dont really understand you.
In 1 post, you say "experienced pilots is not in touch with reallity about change on getting a job" and in other one you say "many people is much more experienced then you and me and they know much better".

Anyway, what I see (people I know, people I talk to), market IS improving all the time.
I hope young lads, who is considering pilot carrier, will follow their dreams and complete education.

[BoeingDreamer]

Many established airline pilots are not in the know, about the in's and outs of getting that first job today, in the current market.

Your discussion in this thread, was however regarding a different matter, with regards to if there are less or more pilots in getting employment.
There are many pilots getting new jobs at the moment, but they all have plenty of experience, so not in the same category as we are.

You believe that there are plenty of jobs for low hour pilots around in the world, while you are being told and shown, there are not! You still deny to the facts presented to you, and insist the only reason there are FI's with 2000 hours TT don't get other jobs is because they are lazy or stupid!

You will be surprised what a promise today will mean when you actually come knocking on someone's door.

I have contacts at a couple of airlines/companies, all the way to the top, guess what, it might help, it might not. We will never know, but be prepared for nothing, because I think there will be a lot of headknocking before newbies get their first proper job.

[KAG]

To stay on topic, is pilot job market picking up at all?, let's speak about our economy and fuel price:


The Dow Jones industrial average plunged nearly 300 points in early trading before recovering more than half of its losses to finish down nearly 138 points at 11,855, a six-week low. The uncertainty fueling the selloff could hang over stock markets and the global economy for a while, analysts say.

"The headlines are scary. Nuclear environmental disasters scare people," Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equities strategist for JPMorgan Chase, told CNBC on Tuesday.

The global financial turmoil sparked by Japan's earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis — which has wiped out about $300 billion in U.S. stock values alone this week — is particularly troubling for the United States and several other countries, where an economic recovery has been showing signs of derailing because political unrest in Libya and the Middle East has led to a sharp run-up in crude oil prices.

Already, the turmoil in Japan is affecting U.S. companies, investors and consumers, threatening disruptions in the flow of products and parts used to manufacture everything from Apple iPads to Sony televisions.

Insurers that have large exposure to potential Japanese claims saw their stock prices sink Tuesday. So did that of industrial giant General Electric, a big player in nuclear power and the maker of the damaged reactors at Japan's beleaguered Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, where the ongoing battle to contain radiation is renewing long-running questions about the design of GE's reactors.

MARKETS: U.S. stocks drop as fear about crisis spreads
ENERGY: Japan's nuke threat 'a wake-up call' for the U.S.
Meanwhile, Toyota's Kentucky manufacturing plant, which produces Camrys and other popular models for the Japanese automaker, has begun cutting overtime shifts because of concerns about the flow of auto supplies from Japanese factories.

The bigger concern is the simple unknown of what's happening in Japan, the world's third-biggest economy after the USA and China. Will its nuclear crisis unravel further, and discourage activity in some industrial areas or even spread radioactive contamination well beyond Japan? How will the country manage its earthquake recovery? And in the USA, what will be the long-term effect on Wall Street and Main Street?

"Right now, investors are justifiably worried," says economist Ethan Harris of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The really big risk aversion (to stocks) started in the Middle East. With what's happening in Japan, the two have created dread and uncertainty. Nobody's done scenario planning for this type of disaster. It's terrifying."

As long as Japan's nuclear crisis doesn't significantly worsen, most economists expect the overall impact to the United States to be minimal. Japan accounts for 6.4% of U.S. imports and about 4.7% of exports.

However, further selloffs on Wall Street could have an impact on consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy.

"Extreme uncertainty over the extent of the nuclear disaster may add to a sense that global events are spinning out of control," notes Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS Global Insight. "This can make consumers — and perhaps businesses — more fearful, which in turn can lead to postponement of decisions to purchase or hire."

Consumers also could be crimped by rising fuel prices, up nearly 30% in recent weeks.

[KAG]

March 2011

Further sharp increases in the price of oil would be enough to push some advanced economies back into recession, says Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial downturn.
Unrest in the Middle East has contributed to driving up prices to post-global recession peaks.

Analysts are now asking whether prices could touch the record highs of 2008, shortly before the financial downturn sent them tumbling.

"If you had the oil price going up to where it was in the summer of 2008, at US$140 a barrel, at that point some of the advanced economies will start to double dip," Prof Roubini, of New York University, said yesterday in Dubai. In the faster-growing US, a surge to those levels could slow down expansion, he said.

Speculative flows from the West have helped to push up Brent crude oil prices to levels approaching $120 against a backdrop of persistent turmoil in the region. Prices of Brent dropped to $113.64 a barrel yesterday, however.

"Oil prices are unbalancing the world economy," said Tim Fox, the chief economist of Emirates NBD. "Speculative activity was partly responsible for the oil spike that led to prices crashing in 2008. Now, zero interest rates are again encouraging speculative funds into all kinds of asset classes."

For the Gulf, higher oil prices would appear to be a boon by helping to replenish government revenues. The increase prompted the IMF on Monday to marginally upgrade its economic forecast for the UAE this year to 3.3 per cent, from a previous outlook of 3.2 per cent.



Nevertheless, the IMF warned the situation was not all beneficial for the economy.

"If these prices are sustained for a long time they may start having an impact on the economic recovery because of the impact on global demand," said Taline Koranchelian, an IMF adviser.

European economies have been highlighted as among those most vulnerable to advancing oil prices. The UK, Ireland, Greece and Spain, in particular, remain fragile as they rebalance their economies from excessive debt levels.

As a signal of how delicate the European recovery remained, Prof Roubini said the European Central Bank (ECB) might be raising interest rates prematurely as many countries tried to regain competitiveness.

The ECB announced last week it was likely to raise rates as early as next month.

[captainsuperstorm]

Cefey alias Alice in Wonderland:},

I just received a call from SAS HR and they told me to ask you what plane you want fly. You have the choice. You want turboprop or jet?. IF iwas you I would go on 747 or 340. they train you for free, don't worry. just come with pens and paper.

when you want start your training? and your base?

this is important, please pm asap.we have a class starting begining April 2011.

hope to hear from you.

SAS HR

[BoeingDreamer]

Cefey: This is from BALPA website, are they also wrong?

Despite what the schools will often tell you, there is not a shortage of pilots in the industry, nor are there signs of one occurring soon. There may, however, be a shortage of experienced pilots, those who have several thousand hours flying commercial jet aircraft. There is a stark difference between the two, and unfortunately most people who finish their flight training, even from the mainstream schools who claim to have good connections with airlines, often find themselves unable to even apply for the vast majority of jobs because they lack the experience required. This is something which the training schools will never admit to, but you will need to be prepared for.

Bridging the gap between qualifying and gaining employment is fraught with difficulties, and often requires buying expensive additional training in the hope of finding a job. You need to think very carefully before you enroll on a flight training course, and decide whether you can afford to finish the course and not find a job. Getting onto an airline sponsored scheme where a job is offered upon completion may be the safest way, but there will be fierce competition for places on such schemes.

[cefey]

BoeingDreamer

I understood looong long time ago (like 2 month into my education, even before my 1st flight hour), that school just telling stuff, ONLY to get you in. You are absolutely right on that.

However, what Im saying here, is mine opinion and not what schools told me.
My opinion is formed out of my experience, experience of people I know and what TRUSTED people tells me (not someone on the forum, but pilots etc i know in a real life).

Fair enough, everyone wants experienced people for the job.
But where will you get those guys? Crisis - people loose jobs. Get rehired later. Cool.
But lets say "no one" hires inexperienced pilots for next 20 years. So, where will you get experienced pilots after that?

My point is, "best" companies dont take in pilots with "no time", unless you know someone in the system.
However, there will ALWAYS be companies that taking in guys with low hours.
Flying for low payment, like CFI is kind of part of education.
And once you done with it, you will get a job. At least most of people will.

[captainsuperstorm]

you talk a lot cefey!!!, but you don't prove anything here.

I want you to apply to airline and get a job next week.
how many CV have sent so far? none.

how many flying jobs did you get so far? none

how much money to you bring home every month from flying? NONE!


so keep it down, or go back to your wonderland. We don't need ice smoker here. We are professional pilots, not 16 yo kid like you with no life experience. go get your own experience!

for me, you are like these young naive chaps I sometimes meet who are totally blinded by the flying dream, who got money from their daddy, and thinks a jet job will wait for them once their blue license is in their flying bag..
get a uni degree, and go work...maybe you are too lazy? what's wrong with Uni, maybe you are not smart enough? and you want become a professional pilot?

most guys I know, don't want fly at night, don't want wake up at 0400, etc.

Are you aware that being a pilot is hard job and only reserved for the hard workers.

Son,have you done at least your military service?:E

[alphaadrian]

Hi Cefey

I got an ATPL and 2700hours. 1100 turbine/multi-crew. Applied for several hundred jobs since my last company went bankrupt. With all your experience:yuk:and positive attitude I thought you maybe could point me in the right direction...:ugh:lol!

Alpha:ok:

[taff_lightning]

Out of interest. In an earlier post someone said there was/or will be a shortage of experienced pilots. At what time does one become an experienced pilot? 2000, 3000, 15000hrs. Something I've always wondered.

[KAG]

Shortage of experienced pilot is a polite way to say there is no shortage.

Picking up an experienced type rated captain from an other company, this is a cheap way to deal with human ressources.

Taff: experienced pilot doesn't mean 100 hours or 1 billion hours, it means captain on type (type being the one the hiring company operates...)

[captainsuperstorm]

At what time does one become an experienced pilot?

when you wallet is full and open for these P2F schemes.:}

France/US/UK will attack soon Lybia, do you think airlines are thinking about pilots, when they think now how to cross the Mediterranean sea.

This :mad: will shot down some civil planes soon! next crisis is coming!

[Artie Fufkin]

Wiki "Confirmation bias";-

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true. As a result, people gather evidence and recall information from memory selectively, and interpret it in a biased way. The biases appear in particular for emotionally significant issues and for established beliefs

[volunteerpilot]

Lot of young pilots are confused about what is required for airline job so thought adverts below may clarify things. Note the factoring table at the end, basically it means 3000 hours on single engine is factored down to 900 hours as far as EasyJet is concerned etc. Also note how CTC is marketed / positioned, message is if you are not experienced give us yer mooney and get lost... They say how will a newbie benefit from extensive training, no mention of job etc. (Well done marketing team)

Jet2 advert

Jet2.com is the North’s leading leisure airline, with a fleet of B757-200s and B737-800s & 300s. As we continue to grow, we are looking to recruit a number of Non-Type Rated First Officers from both military and civilian backgrounds.
In this position you will ensure the efficient and smooth running of our flights, adhering to our Standard Operating Procedures at all times. You will also ensure that the crew work effectively as part of a team to help achieve our high standard of customer service and on time performance.


To be considered for this role you must have:

A minimum of 1,000 flying hours, of which 500 hours must be medium military or commercial flying on rotary or fixed wing turboprop or turbo jet aircraft
A valid Class One Medical
A valid passport with no restrictions
The right to live and work in the EU without restriction
You will have lots of enthusiasm, energy and commitment to customer service as you will play a leading and pivotal role in our exciting plans for 2011/12 and beyond.
If you are interested then please complete our online application form.

EasyJet advert

To qualify as a 737 or A319 type rated pilot, we prefer a minimum of 500 hours on type within the last 5 years.
For those wishing to start an airline career as a pilot, but not yet in possession of a pilots licence, we are, in association with our training partner CTC, able to offer a sponsorship scheme that (dependant on growth plans) will enable up to 24 applicants a year to achieve their dream. This exciting commitment by easyJet to the career development of young people will enable a select few to benefit from a highly extensive training process.
Application for this sponsorship opportunity is only available through CTC's website www.ctcaviation.com/wings (http://www.ctcaviation.com/wings) - please do not apply directly to easyJet for this scheme. More information on the CTC Cadet Sponsorship Programme can be found here. (http://www.pprune.org/EN/Jobs/Pilot/pilotrecruitment_cadetsponsorshipscheme.html)
For pilots with a frozen ATPL but less than 500 hours total experience we continue to take a small number of entrants through CTC's ATP Scheme – please visit CTC's website to learn more about the ATP Scheme. (http://www.ctcaviation.com/wings/)
Of course, as we are expanding at such a high rate, our requirements may change - we will keep you updated on those requirements through this website.
Factored Hours Ratios

Command Other
easyJet 1
Airline/Shorthaul/Jet 0.9 0.8
Airline/Longhaul/Jet 0.7 0.6
Turbine/Multicrew/airline 0.8 0.7
Single Pilot/Airline 0.7
Multi engine/non airline 0.7 0.6
Fast Jet/military 0.8
Single Engine/non airline 0.3 (morale of story, get onto big a/c)
Rotary/Multi crew 0.5 0.4
Rotary/Single pilot 0.1

[KAG]

Interesting volunteer pilot.
I just add something: the most part of the airline-turbofan job advertisement I can see around the world is for captain type rated and experienced on type. This is the egg and chicken story from the wannabe viewpoint. And of course there is no shortage of 500/1000 hours F/O. If there were, they would just decrease the minimums (down to 180......). Those 500/1000 hours minimums is the very proof there is an over supply of pilot.

Get a $20.000 Single engine CPL, maybe with a basic flight instructor rating, then go around the world to get some experience, and maybe you will be able to climb the ladder step by step. This is the only way (and not an easy one) nowadays to become an aviator instead of a jet monkey full of debts.

[cefey]

job in sweeden, for low hour pilots (250TT).
Nordflyg Air Logistics | Job Applications (http://logistics.nordflyg.se/index.php/contact/jobapplications)

job in greece, no pre-set req.
Sky Wings Airlines (http://www.skywings.gr/)

If I monitor all the sites closely, there is about 2-5 new jobs like this each week.
For sure, its not enough for everyone, but then again, not everyone is looking for all kind of jobs neither;)

[captainsuperstorm]

forget it!


Get a $20.000 Single engine CPL, maybe with a basic flight instructor rating, then go around the world to get some experienceexperience on what? 3000h on single engine?low paid salary.

I know many guys who have been instructor in flight schools. They have never found a job with their 3000h on SEP.Most have simply given up and have now a normal life!.


Companies want turbine or jet.who cares of a FI with XXXX hours?
better to try to join an airline with 200h than spending more money in a flight instructor license.

really, forget this profession.
Anyone starting training, will soon realize it' s a total waist of money. Even if you land a job, by exemple on a ATR, and log 1000h , then what will be your next job?, you still don't have the 1000h on jet.

why not start training when the market needs pilot? and be sponsored by an airline.

WHAT'S THE POINT TO HAVE A NICE LICENSE, IF IT 'S TO LOAD CARGO PLANES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, WITH A **** SALARY AND NO FUTURE AT ALL ??? GET REAL !

[KAG]

Sure cefey, and I am sure we can find some more examples.
The only fact we have to in this particular situation find some examples to justify a viewpoint means it's not the general rule or reality.

If we had to follow your biased method we could, as you did, give 2 examples of jobless pilot not able to find a job, but it would be pointless, because everybody knows this is the normal situation for a CPL wannabe just finishing school in 2011 to be jobless.

[yardmaster]

easyJet 1
Airline/Shorthaul/Jet 0.9 0.8
Airline/Longhaul/Jet 0.7 0.6
Turbine/Multicrew/airline 0.8 0.7
Single Pilot/Airline 0.7
Multi engine/non airline 0.7 0.6
Fast Jet/military 0.8
Single Engine/non airline 0.3 (morale of story, get onto big a/c)
Rotary/Multi crew 0.5 0.4
Rotary/Single pilot 0.1

Are turboprops (ie ATR 72 / Dash 8) classified as Jets or Turbines?

[volunteerpilot]

Does anyone know if Ryanair or other airlines have similar factoring of flight hours?

[shaun ryder]

KAG

Get to grips and stop spouting the brown stuff. Everyone knows that the 737-200's P&W JT-8d's are both turbo fan engines. As for the rest of your lesson on aeroplane powerplants, its simply cringe worthy.

[Jugs08]

Future pilot supply for the airlines (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/09/21/347437/future-pilot-supply-for-the-airlines.html)


Airlines seem to be starting to order aircraft in respectable numbers again after a period in which cancellations or postponements dominated. The Emirates order in June for another 32 Airbus (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/airbus.html) A380s - bringing its planned A380 (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/airbus%20a380.html) fleet to 90 aircraft - is the most spectacular of a steady stream of new contracts.
As orders accelerate, however, less thought seems to have been given to who is going to fly the new aeroplanes. Hardware requires skilled "liveware" to operate it, but airlines seem to be assuming that appropriately qualified pilots will just materialise as required.



Although Watt acknowledges that there is little demand for low-hour pilots among western European airlines, apart from the big low-cost carriers such as Ryanair (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/ryanair.html) and EasyJet, eastern Europe is hiring, and so is Asia. Any recent graduate from ab initio training can find a job somewhere in the world if he/she is willing to travel, he says.
The evidence of the looming global need is there for all to see. The current firm order backlog for the global airline industry stands at well over 7,500 aircraft, as listed by Flightglobal's Insight Fleetwatch from its ACAS database, and although a few monthly cancellations still feature, they are now dramatically outnumbered by new orders.
Boeing (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/boeing.html) forecasts a global need for 448,000 new airline pilots to enter the industry over the next 20 years, and more than half a million new maintenance engineers. But many carriers are performing no pilot and engineer supply planning.
Long-term forecast demand for airline pilots and mechanics is significantly higher than it was before the global economic recession, according to new figures from Boeing's Training and Flight Services division. The company estimates that the average annual airline pilot demand for the next 20 years will be for 22,500 new pilots and 28,000 new mechanics to replace those retiring, and to cope with growth in the global airline fleet. Just two years ago in 2008, the Training and Flight Services division's forbear, Alteon, forecast that the average annual global industry needs for the 20 years from 2007 would be 18,000 pilots and 24,000 maintenance engineers.
North America heads the league in terms of the number of pilots it will need in the next two decades, at 112,000 (forecast by Alteon in 2008 at 98,000) and Europe follows at 97,000 (70,000). Other regional predicted requirements are China 61,000 (49,900), South-East Asia and Indonesia 34,000 (32,000), Latin America 32,000 (22,800), north-east Asia 19,000 (19,000), the Middle East 23,000 (17,500), the CIS 20,700 (11,500), Africa 13,200 (10,100) and Oceania 13,000 (7,200).
Boeing's projection of the totals for the next 20 years brings home the size of the task: the need to train 448,000 pilots and more than half a million mechanics. This raises the question as to whether the training infrastructure to meet demand can be created in time following the slump in airline investment in ab initio training since the recession began, which has seen capacity in the flight training sector reducing, and investment at flight training organisations put on hold.

[captainsuperstorm]

well, this is still the same story since 25 years.
never seen any pilot shortage in my life, what they are talking about?

first: plenty of experimented pilots ready to work, maybe 200'000 around the world. enough for 6-7 years.

second: why they should hire you, they(airlines) can simply go in the streets, and take 0 hours teenagers, and offer 10-20 years contract.

third:P2F is here, not in the USA, but EU and other countries will adopt this lucrative way to make easy money.

1+2+3= you are screwed!:{

[KAG]

Have a look at the date of your article: 21/09/2010, written before the middle east revolution/war, before the nuclear accident, and before the terrible fuel inflation we are experiencing right now. Look at the date of my article just above: 31/03/2011. The date at which most of the administration/organization cut global economic forecasts due to the fuel crisis.


Anyway I have read much more optimistic articles begining 2008, just before one of the worst recession in the aviation field.

It has been almost half a century that aviation regularly comes back backward every 7/8 years, and we still dare to forecast for the next 20 years with a steady growth that we have during the best short period of times... It's pathetic.

Expired numbers for the next 20 years coming initially right from the aviation training/manufacture industry via a crystal ball.