Where will be?

[Fuji Abound]

I read of airports closing - is their more pressure on land development, more pressure that every "airport" must pay its way etc,

I read of the ever increasing regulatory burden - be it renewable licences, N reg bans, additional maintenance costs etc,

I read of ever rising fuel costs - well I guess they have always being going up, but has the pace become faster,

I read of people migrating to home builts, micro lights and the like.

Maybe it has always been that way.

Although it may seem a doom and gloom post, it isnt.

So my question is, what does the future hold - good or bad?

Where do people think we will be in say:

1 5 years,
2 10 years,
3 30 years time?

Who knows, maybe in five years I will still be around (or someone else will be) to resurect this thread and see who had the greatest insight? ;)

Have we seen the best of the golden days of light aviaition, is the best yet to come, or will it just be different? Have we been lucky to be alive and flying during the last thirty years or so or will we be equally lucky in the future?

At this time of year (it is as good as any) it is traditional to turn ones thoughts to the future, what are your views please?

[IO540]

I think it has always been like this, in that aviation has always attracted mostly opinionated characters (only the most determined would put up with all the crap) but 15+ years ago there were no internet forums to discuss it and moan about it :)

To be fair, however, EASA has redefined the landscape of regulatory threats. But the jury is still out on what will actually happen at the end of the day.

Regarding my plans, I plan to fly as I now do, until I lose my medical.

Maybe one day, when I have retired and my mission profile includes more long and regular trips, I might buy a SE turboprop, but nothing currently out there really grabs me. The Jetprop comes closest. A TBM costs too much.

[The500man]

I think more people can afford to be involved in general aviation today than 50 or 100 years ago.

Fuel cost, and over-regulation are the things most pilots seem to like to moan about at the moment (rightly so). Everyone else seems more interested in noise and pollution (yawn). So maybe if aircraft manufacturers could produce clean, quiet aircraft that run on free fuel atleast a few more people would be happy.

We no doubt can look forward to increasing regulation with the increase in airborne traffic (for when the aforementioned aircraft are available).

Personally I look forward to the day I can get in my single-pilot spaceship and go for a bimble round the solar system!

Oops I skipped straight to 100 years ahead!

[BackPacker]

The odd thing is that in the Netherlands two new airfields have opened up. Either from scratch or they were microlight or so fields that have now been upgraded. So despite everything people are still taking the plunge.

[Halfbaked_Boy]

The500man,

Personally I look forward to the day I can get in my single-pilot spaceship and go for a bimble round the solar system!

Funny, that's always been a little daydream of mine as well! Keep it in the shed, pull it out when required, get strapped in, and by this time it will be so user friendly and regulations will be so harmonised that you can just fly it off to space like a light aircraft! If you think about it, if you plan on travelling in straight lines (or, to be more accurate, working out your 'voyage' so you require no vector changes enroute), you won't actually need much fuel once in space, only that to speed you up to cruise, and to slow you down again at the end!

It's just the 'getting it up' that's gonna be the problem!

Ah yes, I can dream...

[IO540]

You've got Class E airspace at FL600+ so you can fly VFR up there, on a plain PPL, non-radio.

Got to maintain VMC though.

[Pace]

I put the deterioration in GA down to 9/11 something changed!!! The freedoms we had and which the USA claimed they were fighting to retain vanished overnight.

We all of a sudden had a massive security industry and with that an increase in the Big Brother is watching over you state.

That also seems to tie in with an increase in Burocracy and state intervention in Europe.

Government jobs! government intervention in every area of our lives and government regulations.

Quangos, Committees the liability society all seems to have started with 9/11.

We then had the death of the planet, green house gases, more government jobs more departments, study groups, more regulations as government saw a whole new Green industry that could create even more jobs even more regulations even more Big Brother state.

Then the recession? The warm winters blamed on man made global warming suddenly turned to the coldest winter for decades and silence.

All the government research groups shown to be riddled with false informtion went quiet.

I am sure they will come up with new evidence once we come out of the recession?

But for me the biggest threat to GA comes from regulatory authorities, jobs for regulators, jobs for government research groups jobs for ????????
All paid for by ?????????????

We have never had so much state intervention as we do now. Look at EASA and you can see where we are heading! Its not a good place.
Clever the Russians send half their countries into Europe and infiltrate their beliefs that way who needs war.

Pace

[BackPacker]

Got to maintain VMC though.

Not just that, but if you have a UK issued PPL you've also got to be "in sight of the surface". That might be a bit of a challenge if you're going to explore the other side of our solar system.

"Yes your honour, I know I've got to remain in sight of the surface. My trajectory was so that the sun blocked my vision of the earth for just a few seconds. But that's no problem since I was in sight of the surface of Mars during that period. And the ANO doesn't specify which planet I've got to keep in sight."

[AN2 Driver]

I do reckon that a valid prediction has never been easy, but right now it is outright fortune telling. We really have no clue where things are going, but if EASA get's their way, then the future is very bleak and probably outside of Europe.

Having said that, of course the developments in Europe itself will be very interesting in the the next several years, with the Euro in crisis and more and more countries starting to dissent, the question may well be in what political environment we shall live? Will they sort it out or will the EU be a thing of the past?

What I do see for Aviation is mixed. In one way, there is a lot of development going on in all areas, but especcially our light plane industry. Most of it however is experimental or LSA/VLA. The problem of exorbitant cost for certified aircraft will remain one of the biggest obstacles to a renewed fleet.

Yet, there would be a lot to do and accomplish. How about a nice 2 seater with some 1000 NM range, 150 kt speed and a payload that allows full fuel and two realistic folks and their bags below 1000 kg MTOW? One guy at Czec Aircraft (Sport Cruiser) said it could be done easily, maybe they will do it?

Whereas Airports and their problems with noise and hostile neighbours are concerned, I believe European Aviation has to become much more agressive in the fight against green and left politicians who use us as prawns in a game for more votes. We do have to come up as a single voice, not unlike AOPA US does in the USA, not as many small voices in the dark. We have to bring forward campaings such as the ones showing folks like Travolta or Harrison Ford and others openly standing in for Aviation. Why doesn't that work in Europe? Are the people who do fly and are famous at the same time not dare to step out or has just nobody thought about it? We need much more agressive forms of making it clear to Joe Voter what the consequences of suffocating General Aviation will be.

-Who should train the future Pilots even for the airlines?
-Who should train pilots for Air Rescue and other such venues?
-Where do they think the pilots which fly them to their holidays come from when GA is gone in Europe? Will the punters feel comfortable if we need to hire folks from India, Asia in general or the US only to fly European airliners because it is no longer feasible to do it here?

The German car industry hired a PR guy who managed to turn the horrible rep of these companies around in less than a year, convincing everyone that counts that they are now saving the planet. I reckon that is the kind of guy aviation needs badly.

All in all we face two scenarios. One in which EASA will regulate Aviation to death, where there will be no private flying anymore at all but if there is any light aviation left, it will be organized in state run aeroclubs or by the military. We will go back to state run aviation schools to satisfy demand of the airlines and the military. In short, we will have what the Soviets had during their time, a fully state controlled aviation environment where pilots will be chosen by merit, party association, favours and luck.

Or the other if organized resistence finally gets a hold and a grip on things and stops the maniacs which are about to destroy 100 years of aviation for petty bureaucracy and power. General Aviation needs a voice, a loud and clear voice, which can make it brutally clear what the consequences of the actions by these people will be.

Best regards

AN2 driver (well, former, as EASA has taken that possibility away already)

[FlyingKiwi_73]

You've got Class E airspace at FL600+ so you can fly VFR up there, on a plain PPL, non-radio.

Got to maintain VMC though.


Hah better start putting those solid fuel bosters on the Tomahawk then !

Oxygen will definitely put me over MTOW so it would be a quick round trip.

[CharlieDeltaUK]

Criticising European bureaucrats is popular in all fields, not just aviation. And, of course, some of the criticism will be justified. But, as someone still training to get my PPL and wondering if the whole exercise will be futile, it's really difficult to know how much this stuff about EASA is serious. Are they really intent on curtailing GA to the point where it ceases to exist in Europe - I'm wondering why they would do that. Or are they introducing measures which will be a nuisance but not show-stoppers.

Comparing this, for example, to the debates about health & safety gone mad, I observe plenty of daft health & safety measures (like being self-employed working from home and having to do a health & safety assessment on my own house), but in practice they don't often get to the stage of actually stopping activities. I know some schools get a bit over-zealous, but on the whole, life seems to go on, and we just see more idiotic signs and disclaimers.

So, should I merely expect to see annoying but bearable lunacy (perhaps combined with one or two sensible measures), or is my PPL going to be useless before I've even got going?

Reading this forum, I find this issue much more worrying and more likely to dissaude me from continuing than any number of exams, cost issues etc. When I started, I guessed it would be expensive and cumbersome. I thought that was the price to pay for safety in the sky and for taking part in a minority pasttime. But I didn't think that political hectoring would be the biggest barrier.:(

Put it another way, how many of you would still commend someone like me to get started flying in the UK, assuming I have a reasonable tolerance of a few formalities, exams, checks and fuel increases?

[IO540]

I think you will be just fine if you want to be a VFR-only pilot. That whole scene is pretty well assured.

Just make sure you can afford it easily, but that applies to any activity you get into. The bulk of the moaning and whinging that goes on in GA is caused by people trying to hang in there when they cannot - and never could - afford it.

The main regulatory threat lies in private IFR operations, especially if you are flying on non-EU papers in a non-EU registered aircraft - as most private IFR pilots in Europe are... but I am sure this will be OK too in the long term. We will just have a few rocky years...

The EASA maintenance regime (Part M) has created revenue generation opportunities for all the assorted crooks and conmen which have always existed in aircraft maintenance, but if a maintenance company gets itself organised with proper streamlined methods there is very little problem with it (generally).

[172driver]

but on the whole, life seems to go on, and we just see more idiotic signs and disclaimers.

This is exactly the problem and this is why we are getting deeper and deeper into this whole H&S, etc, etc cr*p.

The best analogy is that of the frog boiled alive:

If you sit a frog into a pot of cold water and slowly bring this to the boil, the poor frog will not make any attempt to escape - it will be boiled alive.

And that's exactly what's going in the UK and in Europe.


Disclaimer: I never have, nor will I ever try the above experiment myself and I certainly do not condone or advocate frogs being boiled alive!

[Fuji Abound]

172driver

Yeah, but I bet you have done it, or been party to it, with a lobster or crab. ;)

[172driver]

Lobster dies instantly if plunged into boiling water, as would probably a frog. The point is the slow, imperceptible ratcheting up of the temp. Just as with all the regs and rules around us, not only in aviation.

PS: I love lobster!

[ak7274]

"Just make sure you can afford it easily, but that applies to any activity you get into. The bulk of the moaning and whinging that goes on in GA is caused by people trying to hang in there when they cannot - and never could - afford it."

I am not sure that is true either. I would suggest that people who get in to flying, do so knowing the costs. The problems come when costs start to become disproportionate. Over the last few years costs have risen due to extra bureaucracy and a sharp rise in fuel costs. There is of course the "must have gear and gizmos" that much of the bureuacracy is pushing us all to have.

Inflation is still increasing over and above pay increases,which in real terms means less money to spend on a hobby.

I am fortunate enough to have looked into the costs and cut my cloth appropriately. That's not to say that in a couple of years time I won't be able to afford to fly, but as I do more of the seat of the pants than IFR I reckon I can just about manage.

The last thing I want is to see flying taken away from people who fly for fun and reserved only for those with loads of cash.

[vee-tail-1]

Where do people think we will be in say:

1 5 years,
2 10 years,
3 30 years time?



In 5 years more of the same.
In 10 years a technical breakthrough (Like a lightweight highly reliable diesel motor, and an infallible automatic collision avoidance system) saves GA.
In 30 years overpopulation, resource depletion, pollution, and climate change have flooded most cities and the survivors are fighting for the limited food remaining. :{

[ak7274]

That's it VT..........Look on the bright side

[Pace]

Put it another way, how many of you would still commend someone like me to get started flying in the UK, assuming I have a reasonable tolerance of a few formalities, exams, checks and fuel increases?

CharlieDeltaUk

No go for it!!! I tend to go with what 10540 says. All I would add is that as soon as you get your PPL look at adding the IMCR rating.

It is a very useful rating to have. Problem is EASA are getting rid of the IMCR but have added that within the UK they dont mind Grandfather riting the privalages to be maintained by existing IMCR holders.

IE after 2012 you will no longer be able to get an IMCR in the UK but if you hold one before 2012 you can carry on enjoying its privalages.

Europe has never been GA friendly.I can remember flying in a commercial jet over Italy and being told that i could not take pictures out of the window over Italian airspace. The reason given was that the Italians did not want spies in the sky seeing their secret instalations of god knows what? Travel around Europe and GA was almost non existant or regarded as a rich mans toy! Europeans are of the mindset that aviation belongs to people carriers under state control.

As 10540 stated as long as you are a leisure VFR pilot keeping well clear of the beloved airways you will be fine but if you want to fly IFR airways in GA you will be a person non gratis and either banned or priced out of the airways.

So sorry for the negativity Go for it but do add the IMCR rating before 2012

Pace

[Pace]

Put it another way, how many of you would still commend someone like me to get started flying in the UK, assuming I have a reasonable tolerance of a few formalities, exams, checks and fuel increases?

CharlieDeltaUk

No go for it!!! I tend to go with what 10540 says. All I would add is that as soon as you get your PPL look at adding the IMCR rating.

It is a very useful rating to have. Problem is EASA are getting rid of the IMCR but have added that within the UK they dont mind Grandfather riting the privalages to be maintained by existing IMCR holders.

IE after 2012 you will no longer be able to get an IMCR in the UK but if you hold one before 2012 you can carry on enjoying its privalages.

Europe has never been GA friendly.I can remember flying in a commercial jet over Italy and being told that i could not take pictures out of the window over Italian airspace. The reason given was that the Italians did not want spies in the sky seeing their secret instalations of god knows what? Travel around Europe and GA was almost non existant or regarded as a rich mans toy! Europeans are of the mindset that aviation belongs to people carriers under state control.

As 10540 stated as long as you are a leisure VFR pilot keeping well clear of the beloved airways you will be fine but if you want to fly IFR airways in GA you will be a person non gratis and either banned or priced out of the airways.

So sorry for the negativity Go for it but do add the IMCR rating before 2012 as you wont get it after 2012 because it wont exist in EASA land.

We were cheated out of the IMCR over tea and biscuits and empty promises.
We will be cheated out of a PPL IR and we will be cheated out of N Reg by EASA.

Pace

[CharlieDeltaUK]

By what date in 2012 do I need to get my IMCR? Once you have PPL, how long does it take to get IMCR?

[AdamFrisch]

May I offer an alternative view.

I think we are moving towards cheaper and more reliable flight with electric propulsion. I've been on about it ad nauseam in another thread, so I'll spare you here. But electric propulsion is the great leveler - the technology is so simple, reliable and cheap that it will lover costs of flying across the board. Might not be in the next 5 years, but quicker than people think.

[Svanen]

When I complained to my CRI about how expensive it had became to fly comparing to a few years back.
He told me when he started to fly, he earned 1.5 kr per hour, worked for a week and got paid 60 kr. The plane he rented cost 1 kr per minute, so for one week of work he could fly for one hour during the weekend.

60 kr is about 6£, I didn't say anything more about the cost of flying to him.. ;)

[Pace]

Adam

I cannot see pure electric ever being the case but as in cars I could see electric/Petrol with maybe Avgas for takeoff climb, electric for cruise and Avgas for final approach and landing ?

Pace