Boeing estimate 1M pilots & engineers needed in next 20 yrs

[Saintsman]

Boeing projects need for one million pilots and maintenance personnel in next 20 years (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/09/16/347401/boeing-projects-need-for-one-million-pilots-and-maintenance-personnel-in-next-20.html)

I'm quite surprised by the ratio of pilots to engineers in this estimate. Approx 460K pilots to 600K engineers for 30,000 new aircraft delivered in the next 20 years (plus existing fleets).

That's a lot of pilots required IMO.

[MucMuc]

No doubt all these companies will want experienced pilots/engineers....i no doubt the training will be stepped up, but who is going to hire all those entry-level positions?

just a thought...

[silvercare]

Again and again with old boring stoy line claiming we are in danger, there will be a huge shortage of this or that. If we look at any newpaper 10 years ago the mayor Hubs and airport were going to collapse due to an exponential increment in passengers movement than an economical downturn came-in and nowdays some are just empty cathedrals.

As correctly stated, just experienced personell will be required.

[RB311]

does anyone know how many there are now? 1.5million??

[169west]

does anyone know how many there are now? 1.5million??

yes maybe 2 million furlough and the Chinese are not really awake yet, they can build pilots faster and better!

[Blue-Footed Boobie]

Imagine 460,000 new pilots all saying ''Get Stuffed'' when asked if they would like to pay for the type rating...

P2F end of.


Blue Foot

[hetfield]

So these data are based on 2men cockpit?

[StinkyMonkey]

It's based on one man, one monkey and a giraffe...

[hetfield]

Welcome stinkymonkey:ok:

[big white bird]

crock of ****e.

boeing is full of dreamers.

[Muvo85]

Great material for the FTOs to reel in even more cash!

[click]

My kids will have a real job instead!

[Huck]

The forecasted number of pilots required in the next 20 years is twice the 233,000 pilots in the industry currently, while the number of maintenance personnel required is six times of the 100,000 such personnel today, says Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer, Boeing Training and Flight Services.

This is the first time that Boeing is releasing such a forecast, which is based upon its current market outlook for aircraft.

"When you add up all the numbers, you quickly understand the issues facing this industry," he adds. "Our challenge is adapting our training to engage the future generation of people who will fly and maintain the more than 30,000 airplanes that will be delivered by 2029," says Ganzarski.

The largest growth will be in the Asia Pacific, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots and 220,000 maintenance personnel. Within Asia, China will experience the greatest growth with 70,600 pilots and 96,400 maintenance personnel.
North America will need 97,350 pilots and 137,000 maintenance workers, Europe 94,800 and 122,000 respectively, Africa 13,200 and 15,000 respectively, the Middle East 32,700 and 44,500 respectively, Latin America 37,000 pilots and 44,000 respectively, and the CIS 11,000 and 14,000 respectively.


They need to put the bong down, and go out there and get that damn 787 certified....

[XL319]

BBC News - Demand for pilots is 'set to soar' as plane travel grows (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11328092)

I remain cynical about this, but I would be interested to hear peoples thoughts....

[Van Gough]

maybe some of the 1.5 million out of work pilots around the world might get a job...

[McNulty]

Van Gough:

Just curious - where did you get the figure of 1.5 million from?


As reguards that article from the bbc, i have no doubt that the figures quoted seem reasonable - but only from a demand perspective. The real question in my humble opinion is whether that demand can be met in terms of supplying fuel at an affordable price to expanding asian countries....a question that for obvious reasons is not in the interest of boeing to raise.

[Big Pistons Forever]

A more interesting question is the sea change in airline travel. A lot of the status of being and "airline pilot" was a result of the percieved glamour of air travel. The LOCO's have completely destroyed that and now the average punters travel "experience" are in conditions expected when traveling on a poorly operated bus line. The rush to P2F for entry level jobs and the general dimunition of T & C's is further eroding the attractiveness of the profession yet the industry model now pretty much prohibits a return to the former high salaries.

Something has got to give and I wonder how many wannabe pilots with access to $150,000 and a willingness to work for basically nothing in their first few years, and most importantly with the actual smarts and skill to fly a jet; are left........

[L-38]

Send this to the $#&* BBC News (Note # 8)

the-10-american-industries-that-will-never-recover: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110592/the-10-american-industries-that-will-never-recover)

[King on a Wing]

Big piston....PLENTY pilots with the 'quals' you stated are still around. Plenty who would willingly shed that kind of moolah to occupy the right hand seat of a big shiny jet..

[L-38]

30,000 airplanes that will be delivered by 2029Thats 1,579 aircraft delivered per year for the next 19 years or 132 aircraft per month or 4.5 per day continuosly)!

[sec 3]

Probably not that many in canada with that kinda dough:}

[protectthehornet]

I recall some 30-40 years ago when the same thing was said. SO, I became an airline pilot. I had to earn my GI bill by joining the army (why not be an air force pilot? reduction in force after vietnam war).

Saved my money, used GI bill for advanced ratings and college...starved for 9 years as a CFI, check flying pilot (crapy cargo), crummy third rate corporate stuff...3 rotten regionals and finally got to a good , legacy carrier. Promised to make captain there in 5 years, except saw a war in the Gulf, terror scares, airlines shrinking and it took eleven years. Then saw my pension go for pennies on the dollar. Watched as merger policies for major pilot union favor someone with 3 years airline experience over someone with 20 yyears!

Yeah, a shortage is coming round the corner...wish I had taken that job at apple computer in 1982...I would be a millionaire by now.

[RB311]

crock of ****e.

boeing is full of dreamers

that's why they're trying to build a dreamliner

[daikilo]

The maths are quite simple:
pilots) take an assumption on phase out of 3-crew a/c, assume no significant impact of 1-crew, an assumption on age profile, retirement age and wastage and the required new crew can be calculated. The Boeing answer is roughly in line with their market forecast.
maintenance) take an assumption on maintenance savings for new a/c, an assumption on age pofile, retirement age and the wastage and the required new mtce personnel can be calculated. The Boeing answer suggests a huge problem in keeping mx personnel as they and other manufacturers claim that latest a/c need less mtce.

Marketing bull****? ... or a real industry issue?

[FairWeatherFlyer]

There are lots of industries that are seeing obvious disruptive influences, but on the number 8 front,

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110592/the-10-american-industries-that-will-never-recover

Are people (or perhaps more importantly freight) going to fly significantly less? Are airlines going to be replaced by another form of transport? Is the need for 2 pilots going to be reduced? Are duty hours going to change? Can this (service) business be replaced by foreign companies? Will something make flight completely unaffordable? Are mergers relevant in any way to pilot staffing levels and are mergers likely in the long-term within countries that recognise (often by law) the benefits of competition?

I'm not denying that many countries have a population with a delusion caused by a debt-fuelled boom which is likely to be dismantled over the next decade... but if a 1000 Shinkansen suddenly turn up or Otto the autopilot clones himself bigtime, i'd be worried! Until that happens i think there's some life left in that industry in terms of pilot employment. Salary levels are a different question, of course...

[big white bird]

As people, we are often blindsided. Supply of oil is not the problem for aviation. Look at algae. It will power not only the many thirsty engines of the world, but feed cattle!

What is it that could derail aviation in a big way, then?

World markets are wedging into a technical pattern that will result in the terminal destruction, at least in the short and medium terms, of investor confidence the likes of which will be worse than that experienced in the depths of 2008/2009.

This is what will derail aviation.

The world will not need 1 million pilots simply because the demand for pilots will not be there. Sounds ominous, and doubtless brings the rain of condemnation on my head. But it is what it is, which is very bearish.

To look East for succour is folly, for China, India, Brazil et al have not delinked from the main game, that being the United States of America which, lamentably, is in ruin.

The next 20 years is what this thread is about.

In a word, it will be very 'challenging'.

[Checkboard]

Boeing estimate 1M pilots & engineers needed in next 20 yrs
sounds like Boeing will be the ones to contact for a job then ...

[MucMuc]

BigWhiteBird, the algae-based fuel is not as close as you think, for various reasons.

On the other hand, who will profit most from this exercise? Education and training institutions in US, no doubt. The cost of a 4-year engineering degree at decent uni is now so high that the entry level salaries for space/aero are laughable. They sometimes barely cover the basic needs. Yes, this is also at Boeing and LM. As it was pointed out, same situation applies for entry and mid-level pilots too!

Plenty of suckers fell into this trap before (including yours truly) thinking about long, rich and fulfilling career (talking engineering here)....

Lasciate ogni speranza, voi chi entrate:ugh:

[Mr Pilot 2007]

Boeing estimate 1M pilots & engineers needed in next 20 yrs

Maybe boeing is trying to promote aviation as a great (in demand) job for the future, just to make sure there is plenty of cheap labour around to fly their planes, thus ensuring their sales dont slow as a result .

If there is a real shortage of experienced pilots, airplane orders will slow.

As someone rightly pointed out, what are the salaries and T & Cs going to be like in the future.

If the bulk of the industry is budget airlines as it is now, then I would never encourage my children to become an airline pilot, with a career of low pay and having to 'BUY' several type ratings during your career, as is the norm now.
Thats the only way to be offered a job now.

Say, after spending $100,000 to obtain a licence to ATPL standard, budget on 'buying' another three endorsements during your career. That may cost another $100,000-$150,000.

Are there any other professions that require as much additional $$$ to forward their career, change employers or find another job after redundancy. Most spend big bucks obtaining their Quals, then very little outlay for the remainder of their career. Someone correct me if im wrong.

There will always be individuals who will want to be airline pilots no matter what the cost, but IMHO they must carefully consider the money they will be expected to spend not only obtaining their initial qualifications, but also what other endorsements they will have to cough up for to continue their career, then factor in their forecast income.

Ridiculous

[Capt - Chaos]

Total bull****, happy talk....... brought to you by the same clowns that (cant) bring us the 787.

Boeing is NOT BAC of the past.... its a brave new world and I think theyve screwed the pooch on the 787....good thing the US govt will bail them out, theyre gonna need it after this 787 mess

[yambat]

Tiz all bollox really
Can you imagine all those extra aircrew blocking up the various airport security.
Too hard
Should have been a surgeon, cut folks up legally!

[Dani]

Thats 1,579 aircraft delivered per year for the next 19 years or 132 aircraft per month or 4.5 per day continuosly)!
Which is quite realistic with a A320 and B737 output of more than 1 every day.

The questions remains what happens with old aircraft, they are going to be replaced by the new ones. I sincerely doubt that all new arriving aircraft are being additional ones. Soon all those 767, MD80s, 757 have to go to the scrapyard.

[KBPsen]

Our challenge is adapting our training...

Most probably corporate speak for "let's dumb it down a notch further...".

[scarrymike]

Here is a lead in for on the Alteon Training site:

Boeing Training & Flight Services, formerly Alteon, is a new organization with a long tradition of providing high-quality training and flight services solutions that support the safe, efficient operation of your fleet. With our expansive global network and backing of nearly 100 years of Boeing Aviation experience, we help you meet the demands of an ever-changing business environment. Our name has changed, but our commitment to delivering a consistent standard of service excellence tailored to your specific requirements - regardless of fleet mix-remains the same.:=

[TopTup]

"Supposedly" the trend and need for tech crews and engineers is huge. We've been hearing this for how many years now? And what have we seen?

minimum experience requirements lowered;
training standards lowered;
costs cut & slashed under false guises whereby the real & only reason is profit at the expense of high standards & quality training;
salaries for the said tech & engineering crews lowered;
managerial / execs / bean-counters bonuses sky rocket;
industry skill and knowledge plumet (& kids wonder why I get upset in the sim when they cannot define V1, or the 4 stages of a t/o, or Vmca in a heavy twin transport - stuff once thought of as our aviation bread and butter...., like RT);


A crew lands a stricken A320 on water & is praised for "explorary skill" where by the Capt's own admission they only did what training and experience directed them to do in a professional manner. Can a Capt with 1500-2000 hrs TT and FO with 175-250 hrs TT do the same nowadays as is the case at some "airlines" (loose term) given this new era we work & live in?

Sorry for the pessimism, but our history is the best indicator of our future.

[Huck]

Want to save aviation? (And what's left of american manufacturing....)

Shut down the top ten MBA schools in the U.S.

[stressmerchant]

Want to save aviation? (And what's left of american manufacturing....)

Shut down the top ten MBA schools in the U.S.

Huck, I don't know exactly what the situation is in the US, but I'd put forward the view that the solution is not to shut down the MBA schools. Rather expand them and send more people from the operational disciplines there for additional training.

The problem lies with a mindset that sees technical / operational and business disciplines as completely separate entities. As a junior engineer I became acutely aware how the business climate affected the major manufacturer that employed me. We saw profits being affected by political events and financing decisions, irrespective of how hard or smart we worked. Determined to understand more about the business, I went and did an MBA. When I tried to return to the industry I received a very cold shoulder - the HR departments made it absolutely and explicitly clear that they did not like people who cross-qualified between technical and business fields. Two comments made by interviewers come to mind:
-"Engineers should stick to engineering, and leave business to people who know what they are doing"; and
-"By having a technical and a business qualification you've made yourself unemployable in this industry"

In MBA-speak this is the classic "silo mentality".

My personal view is that if I was in charge of training new engineers or commercial pilots, I'd make sure they all had a solid grounding in the business of aviation.

[Bealzebub]

5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.

Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.

Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368

Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.

Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.

[big white bird]

Bravo, Beazelbub.

Very well put together.

Shines a powerful light on the garbage coming out of Boeing.

:ok:

[visibility3miles]

With numbers of pilot licenses (especially general aviation) and hours flown trending downwards for years, where are future ATP pilots supposed to come from?

AOPA Online: General Aviation Trends (http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html)