Are things picking up?

[Prophead]

What you think? There seems to be a bit of movement and some airlines are starting to recruit. There also seems to be a bit of unrest within the pilots at some of the entry level airlines. Once the large carriers start recruiting will pilots be leaving the loco's 'en masse' and creating lots of jobs for low houred guys? Will this lead to the end of P2F or make it worse? Or have we still got along way to go yet?

[JB007]

A certain job website has more jobs on it at the moment for pilots that i've seen for a long time - before wannabes get too excited, they are all contracts and for experienced pilots, but it's a good sign...

A while to go yet before you'll find a job with a Frozen ATPL and 200 hours...

[A330ETOPS]

It does seem that more openings are coming up, and a couple have openings for low houred ab-initio guys like myself, but i'm not getting my hopes up! It's been over 2 years now for me. Applying none stop, flying 100+hrs a year, paying my £1500+ debt per month and still nothing!

Oh well, good things come to those who wait! I'm sure it'll happen one day

[Prophead]

Well if there is recruitment at the top of the ladder then that creates jobs at the bottom.

What we need is for low houred guys to realise that the airlines need them as much as they need the jobs. They might get away with P2F when there is nothing else, but when its boom time and there is lots of guys leaving the locos for better things it puts them in a better position.

Whilst there will never be a shortage of 200 hour pilots I would not be handing over a large amount of cash at the moment for the chance of a job. You may just end up flying with people who had their TR paid for not long afterwards.

[Deano777]

No RexBanner

P2F only exists because people are willing to stump up the cash and sell their left leg. It has absolutely nothing to do with supply & demand. End of story. :ugh:

[BoeingDreamer]

Deano777 - Of course it has to do with supply and demand!

If the airlines are desperate to get new pilots, and there are not enough candidates available, they will offer better conditions to attract you.

However at this moment of this scenario seems pretty science fiction, it is nevertheless pretty logical train of thought!

Scenario, imagine there was jobs available for a pilots, and a company like RYR did not have enough pilots, they would most definitely pay your TR, and make sure you got better conditions then they need to offer today, where there so many pilots to choose from, that they can select only the best candidates, and then on top of that make them pay their own TR upfront!

That would NEVER happen, if there was lack of pilots to recruit!
So your logic deano777 is wrong - like any business - supply and demand is the master of the situation.

[Deano777]

BoeingDreamer

We'll have to agree to disagree, because that's nonsense. Supply and demand or not, if pilots refused to "P2F" then these schemes wouldn't exist, period. The only reason they exist is because there are people willing to pay the money - fact. It's why they charge you £5 for a cuppa in a service station, because we're all dumb enough to pay it.

[Deano777]

Spot on john smith :ok:

[BoeingDreamer]

I do believe the trend of paying your own TR for your first job is something that is here to stay.

And the mirage of the so called "upturn" might never be big enough to create a pilot shortage, even if there is a drastic upturn.

I deal in retail of special second hand goods, if there is a product that is hard to find/replace - I will put the price higher - however if it is a product who many other offers at reasonable and competitive price, I need to sell this product for less (And I also have to pay less for it when I buy it)

So as long as there will never be a complete shortage of pilots, P2F will always have a market! But if there against all odds, was a major shortage, then P2F strategy would struggle.

I can see some airlines today becoming "feeder" airlines for the larger carriers, and this actually suits all parts as part of their business models.

I admit I would pay my own TR - if there was a job attached to it, and probably at least 80% of the people on these forums would too!

[MrMutra]

im over 3000 hours total and 1500hours PIC jet on business a/c, 2 years on no still i wait for job. All the time must have 500 hours on type, so i understand why people who can pay, pay. All the arguments will not stop this.

I still meet pilots paying to fly because they have the money, and correct if someone wants to pay who will ever say no ?

I am happy to see jobs for those with time on types and yes i hope we can all move up and sure we will. But P2F is not going away, last weekend i met 4 pilots who finished summer contract paying for hours and already pay for next year, in order to "secure a seat". This really is scare tactics and crazy.

But good luck and hope we all get a job soon.

Mr M

[Uncle Wiggily]

Monsieur Airbus and Mr Boeing promised in the 80s that pilots would be paid on a level with bus drivers within three decades.

Actually in most Scandanavian countries and a few other EU countries, the bus driver does make more money, has better benefits due to strong Union action (vs. Union non-action), and are guaranteed a pension.

[Danishpilot80]

I believe a lot of guys out there with no job are blaming pay2fly pilots for the lack of jobs available. I don't agree.
Yes, there are companies out there that offers p2fly schemes with 500 hrs on type out there, like EagleJet and Globalpilottraining. Do you know any else - I don't.
How many pilots do they put in work a year. Maybe 100.
For Ryan, Easy, Lion, Tiger, AirAsia, Wizzair etc. 300 hr guys pay for the TR, but not to fly! And for the most it will be taken from your pay for X years.
So this said how many companies are still left that does not make you pay for TR and flying or whatever.
People complaining are those who want to go straight in as f/o on commercial airliner and see others taking a shortcut which they are not able to. Well that's life!
Think about guys who gets jobs purely because they know somebody - connections! Isn't that unfair too then! Another shortcut that probably hires more pilot's than pay2fly schemes by far. But for some reason that's acceptable..
Yes, pay2fly schemes are here to stay. So are other schemes where you pay your TR.
But guys!! This is only a small percentage of the aviation world.
There are many opportunities out there where you don't pay. You just have to work for it! Get your hands dirty so to speak.

[Bealzebub]

No, this started and flourished long before the latest recession.

I remember the vociferous outcries on these forums 12 years ago about airlines "bonding" new (experienced) recruits for their type rating training costs. All this would supposedly change when the "global pilot shortage" came riding over the horizon. It didn't.

What did change, was the expansion of "lo-cost" operators, who not only bonded their new recuits, but changed the risk burden from employer to employee, by making these new recruits pay their own training costs upfront to either the airline or a contractor in order to qualify themselves for the position they were applying for.

The clue was in the name These companies raison d'etre was to strip out and reduce as many of their input costs as possible, in order to undercut the retail price in the traditional markets they sought to dominate and thrive in. There was little doubt, that they resented their inability to simply reduce the crew compliment. Unable to simply unscrew the right hand seat and throw it in to the parts bin, they sought to, at the very least turn it into a cost reduction exercise.

They learned 3 things very quickly. The first was they only needed someone who held a licence and rating to occupy the right hand seat, provided the regulator perceived there was sufficient experience in the left hand seat. Changes in legislation meant that only 200-250 hours was required to fit this bill. In this segment of the market, there were (and always had been) thousands of people clamouring for their chance at a bite of the apple. In fact there were so many, that it opened up whole new avenues of revenue potential, never mind cost reduction.

Secondly, changes in legislation also had the added bonus of extending the potential longevity of the left hand seat occupant by anything from 5 to 10 years, thereby eliminating overnight and for the next decade, any pressure on the supply and demand side of their requirements for Captains, even in a relatively bouyant marketplace.

Thirdly, training establishments expanded or came into being to supply these companies with their new low cost first officers. Beneficial agreements were entered into, to supply this market. For the airline, there was the prospect of a steady stream of low cost, ready bonded and "self insured risk" applicants to fill the right seat. For the training establishments, there was a rapid expansion in their turnover and profit created by this new found market. For the applicant there was the prospect of becoming an airline pilot, complete with polyester uniform and shiny hat, with only a couple of hundred hours experience, and for little more than the cost of a nice Mercedes with perhaps the additional cost of mid-range Audi, if they had to shell out for a type rating later on.

The losers in all of this were experienced pilots looking for work. For them many of the traditional vacancies were now being filled by this new industry. So successful was this industry, that it sought to reduce the experience base even further than the 200-250 hour range, by steamlining training and restricting qualifications even further. Something called "MPL" seemed to satisy the regulator in this respect, thereby increasing the applicant base still further, and offering the prospect of even lower costs for everybody in the chain.

Recession wasn't the mother of this particular invention It had been born long before that came about. However it did serve to highlight and nurture it, in many respects. What the recession did was to all but kill off the opportunities for experienced pilots looking for established jobs. Not only that, but the inevitable company collapses added to the numbers of those seeking the shrinking number of jobs available in their domestic markets. In the world of "lo-cost Zero-Hero" training, the recession slowed down the input of trainees to the right hand seat, and the shine suddenly tarnished, as the reality of those "airline pilot jobs" were substituted with nefarious titles such as "holding pools".

As recession ends, this machine will crank up once again. However not only will it continue to produce, but it also now has a large backlog of "stock" it needs to either dispose of, or sell at a bargain. That cronic oversuppply will undoubtably dampen increased demand for some considerable time.
Although I have referred to much of this in the context of "Lo-cost" airlines, the harsh reality is, that even those "legacy" or "traditional" operators, have had to adopt most of these practices in order to compete and survive. As they nurse their burnt fingers, they wont be any hurry to forget painful lessons, or return to the economic cost base they endured in previous decades.

So the suggestion that what is being termed "P2F" is either lunacy or a temporary phenomenon, is probably wishful thinking. Experienced pilots are swimming to the cash rich and demand hungry playgrounds of the Middle East and China. However it would be naive in the extreme to think that even employers in these markets are not looking to undercut their competition and reduce long term costs. At the moment they are investing a lot of money in an attempt to establish dominence. That investment brings with it many opportunities for those with the requisite experience. However that investment is for a purpose, and once that purpose is achieved, competition will become more cut-throat.

The world has changed. Airlines want to see a return for the investments they have made in new technology. One day they will get their wish in removing the right hand seat, but for now they will continue to either use it in either a cost reducing way, or where possible in a revenue producing way. To believe that "P2F" is going to evaporate anytime soon is naive in the extreme. However it is no less naive than "P2F" trainees believing that they are going to emerge into a world that needs, respects, or rewards pilots in the manner that it did in the past. There are clearly a lot of people on these forums who patently fail to want to face up to this reality. In fairness that can be partly explained by the fact that the industry is still in a state of rapid evolution. Nevertheless it is likely in the end stages of this particular metamorphosis, and people would be wise to realise this.

[potkettleblack]

For things to pick up which was the original question then you need BA to hire and to hire big. They really drive the market in the UK and to a degree Ireland. That will induce the usual clearout from the likes of Flybe, Air Southwest, Logan, FR and Easy plus a few lucky ones from smaller niche outfits seeking to get onto jets and get some sort of roster stability and payrise no doubt.

Presently it would appear that Flybe thinks its MPL cadets and the use of a holdpool will be sufficient but I can't see this covering their needs with new aircraft and planned route expansion if enough people head for the door. Flybe already have a number of schools that refer to them so they would probably go down that route if their hand was forced.

The other TP operators will go to the usual schools and grab what they need. FR will continue to be oversubscribed doing what it does best, making money from training. Easy can dip back into the CTC holdpool (must have a few hundred swimming at the mo???) and use flexi crew plus any other new creative names/ideas it comes up with to fleece you. Sorry that should have read pay you a reduced salary in order to get a job:) Generally though they won't go for a 200hr low timer with no type rating and no hours on type and invest any money in them.

Smaller jet operators like Jet2 and the charters will probably have some slots come up as well although in the case of the latter many went through self funded TR's or CTC so I am not sure if there will be many opportunities there.

If Aer Arran can find a business angel then I would expect a clearout to the jets once they hire. It will involve paying for a rating though and the uncertainty of working for an airline in a very precarious position but hey...Aer Lingus may well hire but have historically taken integrated from Jerez and Oxford with a small number of modulars and type rated pilots.

Add into the mix the people heading to the sandpit then there may well be some movement in the market as some manager has to explain how they got the headcount so horribly wrong and they clamber to keep their aircraft in the air as pax demand comes back. Don't think it will be this side of Christmas though.

[Bealzebub]

Thank you Rex, but I have to disagree with you.

A fact is defined as: a piece of information about circumstances that exist or events that have occurred

In reality and in opposition to what you stated earlier you do not have to be a "multi millionaire" to embark on this type of course. Far from it. You need the price of an upper mid range sports car (£85 -£95K) Then you might need the price of a upper mid range saloon (£30K). I accept that for many people that is an awful lot of money, and at least with the cars you will have both something tangible to show for it, and the prospect of recovering a reasonable percentage of your money after a few years.

What has happened is that even in the depths of this recession, there has been no shortage of applicants, and indeed no shortage of trainees turning up with the cash. Look at the established training providers in this market. Even though all of them cannot provide the same end of course prospects they could pre-recession, they are all still fully subscribed, even though they undoubtably need to work harder for that business.

Credit has been universally much harder to come by, but that doesn't mean the availability of money has dried up. Yesterdays unsecured credit, has become todays secured credit. Parents still have large sums of equity, pensions, savings, securities with which to provide loans or guarantees. The old windfall pools of inheritance are still out there for the lucky few. Money may be harder to come by, but it still churns out there. Be it training providers or the suppliers of upper mid range sports cars, they may have made changes to their marketing and product ranges, but they are still in most cases continuing to survive and sell their products.

You assume that people will see the T&C's deteriorate and say "no more!"

Why?

These people are buying into a dream (just like the car buyers.) Historically and save for a very few individuals, 200 hours and a CPL/IR would never have given you the opportunity of donning the polyester suit and sitting in the right hand seat of a commercial jet. Now in the evolved reality, it does at least to some degree, offer that very real prospect. Reading these forums for a week or two, and you quickly realize (if you didn't already) that there are legions of people who would give their right arm to satisfy that dream. The reality of achieving that dream may be very different from the perception, but as long as the dream exists there will be an unending queue of people vying for their own chance at it.

Again the recession hasn't created "P2F" it was developing long before the current recession. The recession has simply given it a greater prominence. As with almost everything else in macro-economics, it is born out of a complex interaction of events and realities that are never wholly predictable. "Simples" it is not! It is also evident that there clearly are whole swathes of people who want to be commercial pilots no matter what the reality. Everyone (including you and I) who is drawn to these forums is testament to that to a greater or lesser degree.

For facts, you need to look at the evidence of what has happened and what is happening. What you (or I) hope will happen in the future is speculation, prediction and opinion.

[Uncle Wiggily]

If you took a survey of 10 random people and asked them if they thought airline pilots made a very good living in terms of conditions and salary, I bet 7 or 8 out of the 10 would say yes. My point is that there is still this perception among the general public that the pilot is a very lucrative career (job). This perception is far more common than the reality of the situation. It is this perception that will keep on lowering the bar in terms of this being a respectable profession. Sad but true

[Deano777]

Uncle Wiggily

You're right, and this is why Beazlebub is also correct, in very simplistic terms - people want to fly aeroplanes, and that's why this gravy train will never run dry.

[hollingworthp]

Congrats Dingo

[Burger81]

Dingowave,

Would you be kind enough to share the companies who are offering such interviews please? :}

Thanks,

Burger81

[oneflightcrew]

Hi Dingowave, good for you :)

have you been flying much since you finished your training? What kind of flying have you been doing?

Regards.

OFC

[terryb99]

Here is an article from Bloomberg painting a rather rosy picture;

Pilots Needed for Cockpits as Asia Boom Creates Shortage - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-05/pilots-sought-to-fill-cockpits-as-travel-boom-in-asia-creates-shortage.html)

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

If those numbers are true by half then happy days. But since making the decision to take the plunge a few years ago I always hoped for the best and planned for the worst...... The article does paint a nice picture and I sincerely hope the industry grows at the rate predicted....but it all sounds a bit starry eyed to me!

Here's hoping for the best......but don't abandon plans for the worst quite yet folks!!!!

2W2R :ok:

[Propellerhead]

I think things are starting to pick up. There were quite a few jobs in Flt Int this week - Jet2, FlyDubai, and Openskies. Interestingly, openskies requirements weren't that strict - no type rating was required for instance.

The likes of BA and ezy will probably start taking some 200hr cadets soon. I actually think that we may all be surprised at how quickly the pool of talent dries up, as things have historically picked up rapidly after a recession as airlines leave it to the very last minute to be sure before recruiting. By this time they may be already a bit short of pilots, coupled with expansion. Plus only 50% or so pass selection and many who have been out of training for a while may struggle in flying assessments if not current.

It's not correct to say that redundant people with thousands of hours will block 200hr cadets from getting jobs as they come from different pools and are normally recruited in tandem (many airlines like a mix of experience with 200hr cadets and older more experienced DEPs).

Also, many pilots who stayed beyond 55 will be reaching 60 in just over a year, so hopefully there may then start to be a more normal retirement profile from Dec 2011 onwards.

[Prophead]

It seems that some airlines are recruiting as they are predicting a need for pilots next spring/summer. They wil ltake the ones that need the most training now so that theyare ready and working next year. I would think that experienced pilots will be getting snapped up later as they needless 'working up' to get them onto the line.

If this is the case then once the large airlines start advertising for the experienced pilots then airlines like Ryanair, Flybe, Jet2 etc. may encounter a mass exodus of pilots that are fed up with the way they have been treated. This will then lead to an even greater need for pilots from these airlines albeit experienced SFO's and captains.

Of course this is only my theory but I think there could be interesting times ahead providing there is no terrorist attack/bank meltdown etc.

[Prophead]

And this is exactly why the SFO's and Captains of today should be campaigning against P2F with BALPA, rather than thinking it will not affect them as they are past that level in their own career. This will slowly creep up the ladder and will reduce T&Cs as well as making the whole proffession a joke.

[PosClimb]

Loved the Bloomberg article...

I don't think I could have uncritically regurgitated a self-serving Press Release from the industry spin machine better myself....

[thebarrel]

I lol'd at the chat of BA recruiting 200hr guys...

Have you ANY idea how many Military pilots are sitting on full ATPLs just waiting for BA to start recruiting?? Not even an £80,000 retention bonus is enough to keep them in...

[PrivateFly]

:O It is all good news according to the BBC BBC News - Demand for pilots is 'set to soar' as plane travel grows (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11328092)

Certainly the private jet market is bouncing back steadily now. Traffic up 6% on last year according to Eurocontrol & EBAA.

As a freelance private jet pilot (C560 XL) I am getting more calls from private jet aircraft operators who need extra crew on an adhoc basis.

[magicmick]

Good Morning All

I honestly do not wish to sound like the harbinger of doom and gloom but I honestly feel that talk of a sustained recovery is premature, airlines are still in deep trouble.

Air Southwest in Plymouth have been up for sale since May, the only interetsed party seems to be Eastern airlines who will trim workforce and routes if they get the airline. The company that owns Southwest (Sutton Harbour Holdings) also own Plymouth Airport, currently the airport is not up for sale but Sutton Harbour recently sold some of the airport land to a property developer. If the sale to Eastern doesn't happen Plymouth may lose more than an airline it might lose the airport to housing.

Aer Arann in Ireland have entered 'examinership' which is a process where the Irish government protects the company from its creditors for up to 70 days. The airline are seeking new investors to allow it to 'restructure and reposition.' Such words normally only mean one thing - job losses so even if someone does come up with enough money to stop the airline folding there will still be more pilots on the dole.

Several experienced pilots (WWW for instance) have written on these pages in the past that hard times are still ahead and that airlines will fold during the Winter, it seems that they were correct.

I hope that I am wrong (wouldn't be the first time) as I'm a low hours bloke currently working in engineering to keep some money coming in. For people like me who qualified when the recession started to bite theres not a lot we can do but I would not advise anyone to start training at the moment and definitely steer clear of integrated courses especially if you have to give up paid employment to get onto the course.

Again apologies for the gloom but thats how it is right now, sincere best wishes and good luck to all those seeking flying work at the moment (as long as you don't get a job before I do!!!!)

MM

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Calm down.

There is a second credit crunch and another UK house price crash to get out of the way first.

Anyway. Nobodies interested in ex-RAF anymore and the only way 'in' to most airlines is going to be pay to fly type schemes. Every established airline already has a big bunch of FO's they didn't promote over the last couple of years. Every established airline is in need of the profits that a cadet willing and able to spend £20 - £30k on a type rating followed by lower payscales can provide.

Nobody wants experience.

Nobody will pay for it.


I may be wrong.


WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Clearly we were writing at the same time there magicmick.

It was PrivateFly I wanted to calm down.

All the risks are on the downside. I'm long on the FTSE and an inflation bull. Airlines are still a shaky business model and some will fail. We are in a consolodation period I think. Jobs will become available as people die/retire/lose medical but those jobs will increasingly only be available to those willing to join some kind of scheme. The old fashioned - straight job - is going to become just that; old fashioned. Bad news for those looking to change employer including Aunty Bettys mob.

The long haul boys have swathes of near-rated applicants from the Lo-Co's. The massive sedative effect of enormous lo-co recruitment is about to wear off as RYR and EZY end expansion in the next 18 months. Sometimes its the economy and sometimes its the industry that causes seismic ructions in the Wannabe World. Recently and currently its the economy. Bear in mind that shortly the Industry itself will cause a quake when the lo-co's shut their doors. RYR and EZY have hoovered up between them about 500 jetjobs a year for the last decade. Sometimes more. Nearly all fuelled by expansion.

That ends.

In 18 months.



Think on. If you're a Wannabe there's always **** news awaiting. That's a lesson in itself.


WWW

[UAV689]

again spot on WWW, as soon as the last jets arrive for easy and FR the doors are closed. I wouldnt be surprised if after that FR put their requirments back up to 1500 hrs again...

UK expansion is done, only hope is far east and sand pit for the next boom time, for those that are able to move out there.

I wouldnt un-batten the hatches just yet, job cuts and interest rate rises and end to QE will make things interesting again for the next 18 months...

[magicmick]

No worries WWW, to be honest I could probably do with a bit of calming down most of the time.

I don't have your financial acumen but from my very simplistic viewpoint I feel that the industry is still very much on its knees and no amount of up beat reports from BBC, Boeing etc will convince me otherwise.

I started modular training at the beginning of 2007 when the jobs were easier to find. It may well be that I have spunked an awful lot of money against the wall for no result but at least it was my money and was not loaned from anyone. At the time I had engineering as a plan B if the flying didn't happen but it seems that the flying is working out to be the plan B.

Unfortunately the sort of reports linked to in previous replies are pure :mad: mag material for the flying schools (modular and integrated) that are trying to convince people to part with their cash. I can almost hear these reports being quoted verbatim at their open days.

Cheers

MM

[frank booth]

Ryr will not stop recruiting for the right seat. They'll just have more fo's flying less hours, not good if you get paid per flying hour. Gonna get harder to service those loans, but they ain't gonna stop selling the most lucrative seat that's for sure.....

[2 Whites 2 Reds]

Well things are definitely better than they were.

My take on it is that the real extent of the damage has still not been felt. This winter will be the liquidity test for many carriers. If they're still here this time next year, I rekon they're here to stay until the next cyclic dip.

The number of catastrophic events that unfolded over the last 24-36 months have really brought the industry to its knees. Namely the credit crunch, recession and then to top it off the volcanic ash cloud.

I await correction on this but aren't we in the UK the only mugs left paying Pax Tax? I know the Dutch got rid of it after KLM reported that the tax was damaging it's pax numbers.

As for us poor sods looking for a proper flying job, until the loonacy of P2F and back handers from flight school's etc are dealt with the industry remains a bit of a joke. Sadly only realised much of this since I've actually been job hunting. :ugh::ugh:

Bit like sex really....great at the time but wake up the next morning with a shiny blue book and you realise in full horror what your beer goggles made you do....:yuk::yuk::yuk:

On the bright side, it's the weekend and that means beer time!!!

2W2R :E

[JB007]

Sadly, have to agree - few more years yet for low-houred guys, but a few 'good' options appearing for those with hours/jet time!

[thebarrel]

I doubt BA will ever go for the P2F route; perhaps they will make candidates pay for their type rating, but I know for a fact that BA are big on experienced crews and having them trained in strict accordance with BA SOP. (and have a lot of ex-military).

I would also not be surprised to see the CAA adopt the 1500hr rule that is running the mill in the US at the moment; at the end of the day, P2F is essentially a money making exercise versus flight safety. It's only a matter of time before there is a serious incident involving a low-houred crew (I believe Buffalo was the US one that prompted the introduction on the law?) and the CAA sit up and take note.

WWW, you have been proven right before, so I can only hope that this time you are incorrect :sad:...

[BigNumber]

Agreed; it will always prove a challenge to 'earn' a living performing a commercial function others are willing ( and allowed ) to perform for nothing.

[zeddb]

I reckon that those who wish to see p2f expand are those who have just qualified or are about to enter training and are desperate to justify their financial outlay to themselves.

Who actually operates p2f in the UK? Only really two or three low cost operators and occasionally BMI. The vast majority of European legacy carriers do not as they still value experience over unbridled optimism.

Lets see how many 200 hour wunderkinds get selected by BA or Virgin or GSS or Emirates etc before you all start wetting your collective knickers. You may all get your chance in the end but you may have to wait and you may not automatically occupy the RHS of a jet in front of those with experience. The past is no guarantee of the future. An airline filled with inexperienced cadets would likely draw the attention of the authorities as I understand, a certain loco in the frozen north has found out.

Just my 2 bob's worth.

[Black Knat]

John Smith-agree with your points regarding low hours/PTF if things were 'logical'. However, if there is a major incident with a PTF guy in the RHS then what will determine changes will be the media, public perception and politicians. At the moment, the travelling public don't care who sits at the front so long as they (the public) can get cheap flights. The media is focused on other things. If we have a Buffalo type accident this side of the pond the media coverage/judgement will be severe. As we know, the 'truth will never get in the way of a good story.'

Oh-and one other thought. If airlines keep replacing 200 hour PTF candidates with new ones, there will be a lot of 'pilots' with around 300-400 hrs TT. These people will have no way to get the required experience/hours to ATPL issue except by finding employment. The PTF airlines will have no crew to promote to command.

[zeddb]

Just another thought, at what point would the insurance companies start sitting up and taking notice? A massive increase in premiums would kill P2F a lot faster than public opinion seeing as airlines hate spending money.

Perhaps an anonymous note to direct line or whomever? start the ball rolling.

[ReallyAnnoyed]

easyJet does not use P2F which seems to be implied in this thread. FlexiCrew are paid by the block hour.

Double dip is far from certain.

Everything here on this thread is pure speculation. Do not take it as gospel.

[Black Knat]

I expect insurance companies are constantly looking at the stats quite closely. In the 'old' days the main reason to build hours was due to insurance requirements. These days the aircraft used by the mainstream airlines are more reliable and easier to operate in a rigid 'SOP' type way and combining this with FDM then it is easy to enforce and regulate standards. I know that there have been a number of 'minor' incidents such as tail strikes with low experienced crews but whether there is any statistical difference from days gone by I don't know. Going back 15 years I can think of a few (some amusing) incidents that really ought not to have happened so the odd boo-boo these days wouldn't necessarily flag up any interest with insurance companies.

[thebarrel]

Put simply, airlines in the UK have made P2F work. Nobody seems to suggest that the training department at EZY, for example, is anything other than excellent, and assuming that this continues, there will be absolutely no reason for the CAA to intervene.

I think you are confusing actual experience with ATPL training. I'm not saying that companies such as OA and CTC have bad training, its the lack of exposure to the real aviation world and the aircraft you fly that is the danger.

I'd argue that stalling on finals falls into that category. You can teach someone what to do on a few sim trips, but for that to be a muscle-memory action takes more than just the initial training.

And the reason that the legacy carriers still value experience over 200hr wannabes? http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/419519-ba-747-crew-commended-2.html . I think there is a comment in that thread by a user about whether the cadets in his/her airline would have been able to recover said situation.

[humanperformer]

Airlines seem to be starting to order aircraft in respectable numbers again after a period in which cancellations or postponements dominated. The Emirates order in June for another 32 Airbus (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/airbus.html) A380s - bringing its planned A380 (http://www.flightglobal.com/landingpage/airbus%20a380.html) fleet to 90 aircraft - is the most spectacular of a steady stream of new contracts.
As orders accelerate, however, less thought seems to have been given to who is going to fly the new aeroplanes. Hardware requires skilled "liveware" to operate it, but airlines seem to be assuming that appropriately qualified pilots will just materialise as required.


Watts admits that times are tight, and flight training organisations such as his are having to do what it takes to survive the drought while awaiting the return of the rains. But when the rain does come, it might turn out to be a monsoon.


Future pilot supply for the airlines (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/09/21/347437/future-pilot-supply-for-the-airlines.html)

:ok:

[Denti]

The last famous stalling final incidents were caused by pretty experienced pilots. Even the THY accident had a student pilot with several thousand hours of experience. Simply amassing hours can be apparently pretty worthless, even if it is done in the military (THY), but a structured and well supervised training scheme can work around that.

In fact some majors rather stick to their own student and hire only outside pilots if they have to due to supply problems. Which means with legacy carriers switching to MPL training that the day of the 200 hour wonder is now gone and replaced by the 50 to 80 hour wonder. A good MPL course by the way is not cheaper than traditional training, quite the opposite, but it assures training in a multi pilot cockpit from day one with the operation philosophy of the airline in question. Especially if you do part of the real flight hours on a training jet (CJ1) after a complete and thorough type rating.

However it makes only sense if you have an airline with low crew fluctuation numbers and therefore a good mix of very experienced and few unexperienced pilots. If that is no assured and proper rostering is not done it will lead to the odd pairing of inexperienced pilots on both sides which is not really good either.

[clanger32]

First off let me state for the record that my personal belief is P2F is deeply dishonourable of the companies that offer it and the cadets that take it. I firmly believe that most things come back around to bite (or kiss) and those that have embraced P2F will in time regret so doing.

However, I suspect P2F, or even further stretches of self sponsored ratings will not be culled by even a major accident for the simple reason that, experienced or non experienced, Accidents happen.

It has been going on for long enough now, that the airlines would simply point to the X many THOUSAND flights that have been operated across the industry with self sponsored and/or low hour, pilots of all varieties without incident. They would then also point out all the accidents/incidents that have occured with hugely experienced crews. This is the inconvenient truth. Low hours - self sponsored or not - cannot be demonstrably linked to a lack of flight safety.

The second element to this is that there are too many people (the airlines, the FTOs) with serious financial clout who have a vested interest in ensuring it continues. These bodies/individuals will lobby long and hard against any attempt to curtail it - and as history shows, those with the loudest voices, the most to lose and the deepest pockets tend to get their way.

Very sad, but the only real argument I can see against P2F (other than moral) is that "it's not fair". As I posted the other day, the only real way I can see for it to be stopped is for management pilots to start to demand of the parent companies that if the pilot EMPLOYEES are required to fund their training, then all other departments should have to follow suit. The point at which the beancounters have to start to fork out the £20k or so the company ends up paying for them to professionally qualify (ACCA or similar), is the point at which they'll decide training SHOULD be provided by the company, after all....

[Propellerhead]

Yes, things are picking up. See "BA Hold Pool News" in Terms and Endearments.

TR candidates for now but good chance of non TR and 200hr cadets being taken on later in the year according to that thread. Hopefully BA recruit 50 ezy pilots and ezy have to cancel flights again due to lack of pilots. They'll only learn the hard way.