Is The Industry Turning Around And Desperate For Pilots Again?

[atplcrj]

Or are we still in excess of pilots who are laid off or furloughed still?

Heard rumors that Emirates hiring again and Asian carriers too.

Is there a huge retirement predicted for the next couple of years?

Is the industry still requiring self paid TR's for low time pilots to have a chance of getting into the industry again. :ugh:

Your thoughts or ideas of getting on this wave of hiring without missing it again like the boom in 2007/2008.

Safe flying!
Atplcrj

[Huck]

Is there a huge retirement predicted for the next couple of years?


I don't think so, but in December 2012 the Age 65 change will quit reducing retirements.

Some signs of life in the U.S. - Delta has announced some hiring.

[galaxy flyer]

Huck

I'd bet the US major carriers haven't added pilots, net, since 2001. Its all been in the RJ arena. I don't think there will be a retirement increase until 2014 or later, when the '80s boomers start retiring. AA has 20-year F/Os, some years away from the left seat. A friend is 10 years plus at UPS and a long ways from the LHS.

GF

[Huck]

Tell me about it. We're going to have guys with over ten years on the 727 panel before they can move up front....

[Sqwak7700]

Of course the industry is hurting for pilots. Before this downturn hit, airlines were scrambling to fill classes. Obviously, the effect is felt most at the bottom, so regionals and ****ty airlines felt the pilot shortage a lot more than majors did.

Unfortunately for the airlines, their solution to the shortage was short-term measures like retirement age increases and MPL, or even signing bonuses and package improvements. All these things do squat to fix the pilot shortage.

So as soon as things get moving in the right direction airlines are gonna find themselves very tight. You will see these short-term measures pop up again, but they will also need to come up with new ones, like reduction in heavy crew requirements and loosening of safety regs like you saw on the Kenya Airways and Colgan Q400 crash - were demand came in front of safety.

[atplcrj]

In the last boom I saw postings for 500 hours, no experience or type rating required for quite a few asia carriers and in the middle east.

What do you think we will see in this coming shortage? Will we need to show up with type ratings? I thought we were trying to avoid paying for our own TR's??!! It seems the training center's are ramping up for people to show up with $50K to get a TR.

Is there more of a chance for a low timer like me to actually fork out that kinda money for a TR to get that first job??

[Big Pistons Forever]

There has never been a shortage of low time wannabes. At the peaks of the economic cycles there has been shortages of captains as airlines have expanded faster than than the pool of upgradable pilots. This industry has always been, is now, and will in the foreseeable future be hard for new pilots to break into.

[galaxy flyer]

BPF

Quite correct, it was ever thus. Buying ratings is a fool's errand, too. Having spoken with contract pilots, no one is looked down upon more than those that buy ratings and have no experience. Hated!

atplcrj

Do what you have to do to get flight experience, but, for heaven's sake, don't buy a rating--it is useless without a strong background.

GF

[johns7022]

When the chief pilot's of airlines start hiring experienced captains from corporate, military, 135(5000hrs +)..and not 200 hour marshmellows to sit in the right seat, that means the airlines will be desperate. Chief pilot's hate to hire guys that actualy have experience...they want pals, buddy's and kids just to do what they tell them.

It will probably just come down to the the airlines being required to hire 1500 hours + and maybe kids not getting the credit/cash for pay to fly...maybe if lucky, the insurance companies will step in and start imposing higher standards in hiring as well...hope springs eternal with airlines actualy start hiring experience like we all think they would.

[Graybeard]

The recent bump in the economies is the bounce of a dead cat.

And I'm an optimist...

GB

[Captain Dart]

But, for what it's worth, for the longer run:

I am associated with a little aviation museum. Regularly, aircraft in colorful military markings are wheeled out of the museum hangar into the sunshine, and often flown. A four-foot high chain link fence with an always-open gate separates the museum tarmac from a technical secondary college (school) campus. The number of teenagers from that school who have walked over to the fence to look, ask 'what aeroplane is that', 'can I have a closer look' or 'I'm thinking of becoming a pilot' is:

None. Nada. Zip. Rien. Zilch.

Also, a recent edition of Flight magazine refers to a 'prolonged and systemic shortage of pilots, engineers and other aerospace professionals' or words to that effect.

Maybe the Flight reporter shares my concerns?

[By George]

With the modern "airport experience" nobody wants to be a passenger let alone a pilot.

[Halfnut]

Losing its Luster | ATW Online (http://atwonline.com/aeropolitics-regulation/article/losing-its-luster-0429)

Losing its Luster

By Lisa Ray
Created 2010-05-01 00:00
By Aaron Karp

AS THE US GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS ADOPTING NEW pilot certification regulations in the aftermath of last year’s tragic Colgan Air Q400 crash that was blamed on pilot error, professionals involved in training future first officers and captains are asking a deeper question: Why would someone want to become an airline pilot in the US in 2010?

Navigating an intensive flight training program or attending a university with a professional pilot curriculum often means spending/accumulating debt of well over $50,000. “The military is not the presence it used to be” in producing commercial pilots, Embry-Riddle University Aeronautical Science Dept. Chair Dan Macchiarella tells ATW.He estimates that 55% of new commercial pilots come from four-year college programs while civilian flight schools produce most of the rest.

There are the old romantic notions associated with piloting a commercial jet through the great blue yonder, and flight deck crew at major US airlines are generally well compensated. Even as financially strapped US carriers have won concessions from pilot unions, the Air Line Pilots Assn. says the average ALPA captain at a US legacy airline is 52 and earns about $155,000 annually after 21 years of service while an average first officer is 45 with 12 years of service and makes about $105,000.

But US legacy passenger airlines haven’t hired pilots in about a decade; American Airlines, for example, employs more pilots over the age of 60 than under 40. So an aspiring pilot in America today must decide to invest the time and money with the hope that, someday, airline hiring will begin again, or seek employment with fringe players or freight/express operators. But even UPS Airlines, one of the most lucrative cargo carriers, has warned that it may be forced to furlough about 300 pilots this year.

“The process [of becoming a commercial airline pilot] is somewhat of a real gauntlet,” Jeppesen Senior Manger-Training Solutions David Wright tells this magazine. “To learn to fly, you’ve got to have the time, you’ve got to have the money and you’ve got to have the motivation.” Once a young pilot has completed training successfully, he or she then must look to regional airlines, which now operate more than 50% of US domestic flights, for a job (see related article, p. 34).

“You’re looking at low pay and a lifestyle dictated by that pay level,” Wright says. But as with many professions, airline pilots pay their dues and then get a big payoff down the line, right? Maybe in the past, but any pilot who has entered the profession in the US in the last decade may wonder whether the dues-paying will be worth it. “This industry is becoming known for rabidly eating its young,” he laments. “The promise of a sustainable, smooth career is probably at its lowest ever in the pilot profession.” According to ALPA, an average first officer at a US regional with one year of service earns only around $20,567. A ten-year regional captain can expect to earn $70,000.

Even new pilots who graduate from four-year universities with highly regarded training curricula can’t expect well-paying jobs. “There’s a lot of difficulty in moving from being a poor college student to being a poor regional airline pilot,” Macchiarella says.

University of North Dakota School of Aerospace Sciences Chair Kent Lovelace tells ATW,“I just had a student [pilot] in my office yesterday and I asked him what he wanted to do after graduation. And he said, ‘I’m not going to the airlines.’ He explained that he had a good friend who graduated [a couple of years] earlier, who’s at such-and-such regional airline and actually seeing job regression while earning $24,000 a year. Well, you can’t pay back your loans, can’t cover your debt at that salary.”

He continues, “There’s a growing sentiment that the payoff just isn’t there. When a [prospective pilot] asks ‘Can I afford this?’ the answer more and more is ‘No.’ . . . Those that want to fly professionally increasingly want to do so in a corporate setting or a general aviation setting. The image of the airline pilot is injured. It’s not looked upon like it used to be at all.”

Pilot Error

The image was not helped by the conclusions reached by the US National Transportation Safety Board in its investigation of the Colgan crash outside Buffalo that killed 50. The board identified pilot error as the cause, citing the captain’s inappropriate response to a stall warning. Colgan maintained that both pilots received thorough training in handling a stall situation and that it “cannot speculate on why they did not use their training” the night of the crash.

An issue that received a great deal of attention during Congressional hearings that followed the crash was whether the certification requirements for Part 121 first officers are sufficient. FAA’s Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on pilot certification requirements issued earlier this year noted that the Colgan crash “focused attention on whether a commercially rated copilot in Part 121 operations receives adequate training.”

Among questions raised in the ANPRM was whether all Part 121 pilots should hold an Airline Transport Pilot certificate, which requires that a pilot be at least 23 years old, pass a test demonstrating knowledge of the aircraft category and class he or she will be operating and have accumulated a minimum of 1,500 flight hr. First officers currently must have only an instrument rating and commercial pilot certificate requiring just 250 hr.

The 24-year-old first officer in the doomed Q400 had a commercial pilot certificate but not an ATP. According to NTSB, she was hired by Colgan in January 2008 with 1,470 total flight hr. but only “6 hours of actual instrument training . . . The first officer reported no experience with turbine-powered airplanes on her resume and employment application.” By the time of the crash, she had accumulated 2,244 hr. of total flying time, including 774 hr. in turbine aircraft and on the Q400. She reportedly was earning $22,000 per year and lived with her parents in Washington State to save money, commuting across the country to her crew base in Newark.

Both the House of Representatives and Senate have passed legislation that would require all Part 121 pilots to possess an ATP license, meaning it is very possible it will soon be mandated by law that even a regional airline FO will have to possess one.

‘Archaic Regulations’

ALPA Human Factors and Training Group Chair Chuck Hogeman notes that US regulations governing pilot certification were developed in a completely different era. “We would like to see some changes in the regulations because we don’t believe the regulations have kept pace,” he tells ATW.“They were crafted when we had an ample supply of pilots and [airlines generally were operating] three-pilot airplanes. You were able to move rather gradually [as an up-and-coming pilot] before taking control of an airplane.”

It is also the case that the regulations were devised when the vast majority of US commercial pilots were former military pilots who joined airlines with thorough flight training that had been paid for by the armed forces. “Back in the ’60s and ’70s, you probably had 80% of the [airline] pilots coming from the military,” Lovelace says. “By the late 1980s, that had turned around completely.” Now former military pilots are believed to comprise no more than 10%-15% of the US airline pilot workforce.

A UND study of hiring practices at the six largest US regional carriers from 2005-2009 found that only 3% of new hires came from the military. “The military a few years ago really started to up the bonuses [for pilots to remain in the services] as well as upping the initial commitments required,” Lovelace notes. “Pay levels [for military pilots] have increased whereas airline pay has not gone up for years.”

Speaking at the FAA Aviation Forecast Conference in March, Allied Pilots Assn. Government Affairs Chairman Robert Coffman remembered that when he was hired by American Airlines in the 1970s, “for a couple of years we sat sideways [as a flight engineer in a jump seat] and watched how a captain and first officer operated an aircraft.” This allowed pilots to serve a de facto “apprenticeship” in a cockpit during all types of situations before becoming a first officer, he said.

But the three-man cockpit began disappearing with the introduction of the DC-9 in the late 1960s as increased automation supplanted the role of the flight engineer, although not without controversy. Today’s new pilots generally start as FOs with regional carriers. An ALPA white paper issued last year stated, “Today’s archaic regulations allow airlines to hire low-experience pilots into the right seat of high-speed, complex, swept-wing jet aircraft in what amounts to on-the-job training with paying passengers on board . . . Not surprisingly, these pilots, who perform as well as their experience, knowledge and skills will permit, often exhibit deficiencies . . . [that] ultimately impact safety.”

Coffman commented that many first officers hired by regionals “haven’t been flying an aircraft long enough to do something to scare yourself.” He said requiring that all commercial airline pilots have an ATP would force them to gain valuable “seasoning” before getting access to a cockpit with passengers’ lives at stake.

Hogeman says the “$64 million question” in the debate over pilot certification is how much weight to give flight time. Measuring a pilot’s proficiency by the hours he or she has accumulated in a cockpit is “a feeble system at best,” he states. Wright says the notion that accumulating flying time makes someone a better pilot is a myth. “Statistically, there is no direct correlation between flight time and skills. How was a cadet trained, where did he get his experience? That’s much more important.”

Quantity vs. Quality

In fact, throughout much of the world accumulation of significant flight time is not considered an essential element of preparing a pilot for commercial service, with no apparent effect on safety. Lacking the stream of highly experienced military pilots once common in the US, major carriers in other parts of the world long have operated ab initio programs that emphasize quality rather than quantity of training. Indeed, the ICAO Multi-Crew Pilot License standard, which calls for just 240 hr. of flying time, is premised on the notion that the quality of training is far more important than the number of hours accumulated (ATW,March 2008, p. 44). The US “hasn’t embraced” MPL training, Macchiarella says.

Airlines conducting ab initio training, Emirates and Lufthansa prominently among them, carefully screen candidates with no flying experience whatsoever. Those who make the cut are put through training that is mostly or entirely paid for by the airline. Often, the result is pilots ascending to the right seat of a commercial jet with around 250-300 hr. of flight time.

“Emirates selects college graduates who want to be a pilot and takes them from zero training all the way through,” Wright explains. “That model of training is gaining a lot of traction.” The ab initio programs “fly in the face” of the notion that hours are what counts, he says. Emirates said 35 pilots graduated from its National Cadet Pilot Program last year. It spends AED1.2 million ($326,710) on each graduating pilot. Over the last five years it has spent a total of AED100 million ($27.2 million) on the program.

Based on recent testimony before Congress by FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt, himself a former airline pilot, it is not certain the agency will issue a certification rule that places a primary emphasis on flying hr.—though Congress could dictate that it set an hr. requirement. “I know some people are suggesting that simply increasing the minimum number of hours required for a pilot to fly in commercial aviation is appropriate,” Babbitt told lawmakers. “I do not believe that simply raising quantity . . . without regard to the quality and nature of that time and experience is an appropriate method by which to improve a pilot’s proficiency in commercial operations.”

He said FAA is leaning toward developing a regulation that is more “targeted,” explaining, “A newly certificated commercial pilot might be limited to certain activities until he or she could accumulate the type of experience deemed potentially necessary to serve as a first officer for an air carrier. There is a difference between knowing a pilot has been exposed to all critical situations during training versus assuming that simply flying more hours automatically provides that exposure.”

He pointed out that in the US military it is possible for pilots with fewer than 200 hr. of flight time to be landing planes “on an aircraft carrier.” What matters for the military is not hours flown but a rigorous training program that exposes future fighter pilots to all types of scenarios, he said.

“An ATP does not require an extensive amount of training,” Lovelace says. “It’s based on hours in the logbook. It doesn’t cover a lot of varied topics or skill sets.” He notes that the captain in the Colgan accident had an ATP (he had more than 3,300 hr. of total flying time) but was found by NTSB to have made a number of key mistakes on the night of the crash and to have had five “unsatisfactory” check rides throughout his career.

Higher Standards

Pilot education “should be based on competencies as opposed to hours,” Macchiarella agrees. He adds, “We believe that hours and competencies are not necessarily correlated. Studies show sufficiently higher success rates for [pilot] students that graduate with a full college education.” He likens the current debate over pilot training to questions surrounding medical doctors’ qualifications in early 20th century North America that led to the 1910 publication of the influential Flexner Report, which exposed wide variations in the quality of medical schools and a lack of uniform standards for becoming a doctor.

Medical doctors in the US and Canada became much more professionalized in the aftermath of the Flexner Report,he notes, adding that prospective pilots should have to “pass a set of boards” demonstrating they have proficiencies “equivalent” to those graduating with degrees from universities such as Embry-Riddle that require graduates “to demonstrate competencies in multiple areas . . . The pilot profession is under scrutiny now and we need to become more professional.”

One undeniable consequence of the new standards ushered in by the Flexner Report was that it became far more expensive and time-consuming to become a doctor, narrowing the field of prospective physicians. Lovelace led a comprehensive UND study that found US airlines could face a serious pilot shortfall in the years ahead as older pilots retire, traffic finally starts to grow again and the number of young people willing and able to become airline pilots diminishes.

The US airline industry “is living in the past,” he says. “The days of having an unlimited supply of young people having an interest in becoming a professional pilot with an airline are coming to an end.” Initially there will be a “pent-up supply” of new pilots coming from regionals when US majors start hiring again, “but they’ll pass through that quickly and will find that there aren’t enough qualified people coming up to serve the industry’s needs. Most people in the industry won’t believe that could happen because it hasn’t happened before. It may come down to being forced to provide sponsorship for [training pilots] or finding a way to help pilots pay off their debt. The truth is that most airlines aren’t concerned about it because they’ve never had to be concerned about it before.”

[Pilot Positive]

Is The Industry Turning Around And Desperate For Pilots Again?

Its horses for courses at the moment - some areas are modestly hiring e.g. MidEast and SEA (which might be good for you?) whilst others are suffering horrendously. The UK/Europe is not likely to just suddenly witness a massive growth in 18 months (if any!) turning its abundance of unemployed and experienced pilots into employees.

This would be ludicrous given that the UK and Europe is on the edge of the biggest financial meltdown since WW2. Until the region is economically stable with consistent growth (as it seems to be more and more the case in the US) then investment, whether local or foreign, will remain risky and therefore low.

As for the industry being desparate? Not sure that was ever the result of economic of cycle and possibly more like poor industry planning... :}

Chin up and lets keep optimistic though. Hopefully I'll be proved wrong. :ok:

[A. Le Rhone]

The above article is excellent. The only thing it doesn't mention is that cadets who have everything paid for them by the airlines can sometimes be awful employees.

They haven't had to dig-deep into their own pockets to pay for their careers and occasionally have unjustified 'superiority-complexes' (too much given to them at too young an age without doing any of the 'hard yards') that they lose humility and actually become liabilities as employees. Perhaps a good mix of quantity AND quality is the right solution.

The naysayers who think the world will collapse financially (the end is nigh brothers) will always exist. However regardless of the travails of the EU and US economies, China and India will almost solely contribute to stable global growth for at least the next 20 years.

As the above article explains, who will there be to fly the aircraft used to support this economic growth? A perfect-storm occurred after 911 (resulting in isolating cockpits from wannabe's), no more military pilots leaving and the fact that no kids want to be pilots, as IT/finance is far more 'glamorous'.

Hold on to your hats, because I firmly believe that we are about to see a pilot-shortage of the likes never before seen. I maybe an optimist but all the indices are there.

[6000PIC]

You`ve got to be kidding...

[Pilot Positive]

...because I firmly believe that we are about to see a pilot-shortage of the likes never before seen.

Would you mind qualifying that statement through the indices you are referring to? :ok:

Of course, if that statement is representative of Hong Kong or other specific parts of the world then fully understand the regional variations. The situation in the UK is not reflective of your comments and to paint such a picture would be unrealistic. Check out: http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/412949-2011-recruitment.html



PS No - The end is not nigh brothers. But please lets keep it in context. ;)

[GrandPrix]

Did snake oil salesman Kit Darby start this thread?

[Honkozzie]

I can't remember a time when the industry was ever desperate for pilots.

When I started learning to fly in the mid 80's, the word on the street was:
"the military aren't pumping out enough guys, there's gonna be a pilot shortage. You'll crack an airline job in no time." Did it happen? Err, no, not really. Not for nearly 7 years. And there was plenty of competition, thankyou very much.

Then in the 90's when I finally landed a (very good, I'll admit) airline job, after thousands of underpaid hours in the bush, I was greeted with:
"Oh, with the rate of expansion in the industry, we'll be employing like crazy. You'll get a command in 2-3 years, tops." Try 11 years. (not complaining mind you, 11 years is good)

And so it goes. Because, year after year the airlines; (and I'm speaking globally here, not necessarily the US,) always manage to find:

1) a convenient recession/ epidemic/volcanic eruption etc, that prevents pilot employment ever becoming a limiting factor, and
2)when jobs need filling they've always got a ready and eager supply of cadets, or cadet wannabees, most of whom are severely inexperienced, and will sign on for foodstamps and free coffee.
And at the other end of the spectrum, particularly out here in Australasia, retirement ages are going up, with guys willing to hang on on reduced financial terms. (no real objection to that, as you keep your experience base of course)
3) Then there are the myriad of furloughed high time drivers out there who, by necessity, soak up the big jet start up jobs, sadly, for less than ideal wages.

So, will there ever be a pilot shortage? Well, given the poor pay levels and draconian management styles of airlines, you'd think no one would want a job as a pilot...and therefore a shortage would ensue, but the world is full of pilots who will work for next to nothing, just for the love of flying. And the airlines know that and so they prey upon that weakness, pitching salaries just high enough to get you in the door, but just low enough to keep you imprisoned for life. It ain't the job my daddy had anymore.

So, shortage? sadly, I don't think so.

[PosClimb]

Something to remember is that the term "pilot shortage" doesn't literally mean "shortage" as in the resume pile is empty and we're parking planes because no matter how hard we try we can't find pilots...

The term "pilot shortage" is used generally when the airlines are in a hiring cycle.

If you want to use words that reflect reality, you'd be better of using the term "airline hiring cycle" than the more dramatic term "pilot shortage".

There will likely be another hiring cycle in the future unless something dramatic happens, but it may be several years off. The cycle seems to go in a 10 year period: 2 years of strong hiring... 5 years of trickle hiring... 3 years of no hiring or layoffs.

Wannabees really need to finish in a hiring cycle; that's very important.

[BizJetJock]

While I don't expect to see it repeated anytime soon, there most definitely has been a shortage in the past.
In the late 80's I was running a flying school in the UK and regularly getting cold calls from major airlines asking if I knew anyone who might be interested in being sponsored! They had to have the then required 700 hours and they were in.
And indeed they were parking up aircraft due to lack of crews. That has also happened more recently, but usually due to the airline management not planning far enough ahead to hire enough people.

[turbine100]

I have been trying to get into a multi crew operator within the UK or overseas trying to get that first job whilst working on a AOC doing single pilot & single engine ops.

Write about 7 - 10 letters a day that I post and send emails etc with research into each operator, country, licences & work permits. Even mentioning if needed paying towards a rating to get on the ladder which sadly seems a possibility. I can say for certain that the bottom end of the market place their is no pilot shortage.

I would refer "pilot shortage" to pilots with heavy jet experience. Perhaps with on type experience, type rating TRI's / TRE's who are still current and willing to go abroad if needed. Their seems to be jobs out their for those with experience in certain areas etc.

:)

[Microburst2002]

... LITTLE ICE" a video on icing said, that I saw long time ago.

During the video, this sentence was on the screen constantly, and the voice insisting... "there is no such thing as a little ice".

Now. I will only put one post, but consider to read it every day for ten days, so nobody makes mistakes...

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PILOTS SHORTAGE.

but there is a very lucrative bussiness based on that supposed shortage.
That is why you can read articles about it and at the time see how airlines have been laying off pilots for a decade, with only transient, short periods of hiring.

[BizJetJock]

So anything more than a decade ago can't possibly ever be repeated - what a load of twaddle.:mad:

[Microburst2002]

Dinosaurs will never come back, except in more Jurasic Park novels.
They are part of history.
The same applies to pilot shortages.
Only in my country there are over 6,000 unemployed pilots (that is, guys with a CPL, IR, frozen ATPL, MCC), most of which willing to pay the TR to get a job, and many are willing to pay to work, instead of getting paid.
In my country, it would take about 15 years to absorb that amount of pilots.
In other countries the situation is quite the same, and there are fewer and fewer countries short of pilots. But they are short of experienced captains and first officers, rather that guys with all the papers but without real airline experience.

Even if the FTOs stopped producing pilots right now, airlines would have no problems in finding pilots in the next 10 years or so. They would maybe have to pay for TRs in about 5 years, but they would have lots pilots available.

FTOs keep producing pilots at an astronomical rate.

Look, the cycle theories are oversimplifications. Changes occur. Growing and downsizing occur. But the magnitude is what matters. We have fallen to a lower level and we are now oscillating about this low low low level. There are years of downsizing and furloughs and then a few months of hiring, and this repeats, but the average line goes down and down...

Remember...


THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PILOT SHORTAGE

[Luke SkyToddler]

There may be, from time to time, a shortage of experienced and qualified captains willing to buy type rating / work for peanuts in a far flung third world sh!t hole

I wouldn't hold my breath to ever see again, well paid and well respected jobs in first world countries, the bean counters have all well and truly got the idea that you can get young 'uns to work for free or even worse pay to fly, and they won't give that concept up without a hell of a fight

[Biggles78]

And then there was Jetstar in OZ. Not only did you have to pay (or pay back the cost of) your TR, but they also charged you got an interview. Someone will correct me if I get the figure wrong but at the time I believe it was AUD$180.

Maybe a Pilot Shortage refers to those qualified individuals who are under 5' (152.4cm) tall. :rolleyes:

[maybe!]

Someone once told me the only time there has been a pilot shortage was during the battle of Britain

[galaxy flyer]

maybe!

"Tis true, but it was the Luftwaffe who had the pilot shortage. RAF pilots, if alive, landed on home soil, not so the Germans. Both the Germans and the Japanese suffered from pilot shortages by '44. While the Allies used their experienced pilots to train and pass on good tactics, the Axis flew their experienced pilots until the law of averages killed them. I don't count kamikaze drivers as pilots.

GF

[taildrag]

There are several thousand highly qualified furloughed or otherwise out of work airline pilots in the US.

Many are experienced captains with long tenure, whose airlines failed.

The catch? Many,if not most, are not current.

The few big airlines hiring now seem to require currency.

I know of a 20-year experienced international B-757 and B-737NG captain whose airline went suddenly out of business some two years ago.

He was recently flying a single engine recip paying peanuts. That company just went out of business.

He attended a jobs fair a few months ago. Only two major airlines- Korean and an Indian airline- were hiring. Neither would consider non-current pilots. The only other airline hiring, a Q-400 operator, wouldn't even talk to him (apparently because they paid so little they thought experienced captains would soon leave if industry conditions improve). They said, "You wouldn't be happy here."

At the job fair, he met five pilots from his former company. All five are divorced or getting divorced; all five have lost their homes or are losing their homes. (Wouldn't have wanted to be at that post-fair bar session.)

How does one get "current" in a B-757 or B-737NG? In practical terms, one doesn't, especially if way behind on the mortgage and with no assurance of employment.

Seems like no pilot shortage here!:sad:

[Guttn]

The term "pilot shortage" can mean many things, but when referring to hiring this should mean that there are not enough commercial pilots available for the airlines to fill their cockpits. The last time there was a pilot shortage was during the 1940s, and that was a shortage of pilots for the Air Force. The last 8-10 years have seen a change of pace. The norm has become whether you dare gamble on buying a (preferrably) 737 TR, or gamble on getting a job with smaller operators and doing your (due) time. The latter will not pay much, and probably not be able to pay your loans, but you will get the real hands on experinece. The first, however, may (if you get a job that is...) pay for your loans and such, but you will definitely mis out on the hand son experience which airline pilots should bring along in their crew bags to the flight deck.

It`s a catch 22 for sure. One should probably not start pilot training at all nowadays, as the industry is at an alltime low, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, except perhaps the headlight heading right at you :ugh:

[PosClimb]

Thing is:

People talked just like this after 9-11.

Exact same "doom and gloom" rhetoric.

History is repeating itself.

Thing is there will be another hiring period at some point in the future. I would put money on it unless you take the position that the industry is in a permanent decline, which is unlikely unless Peak Oil turns out to be real.

The most important important question is how many years away in the next major hiring cycle.

My guess based on the cycles I've seen before: two or three.

[p7lot]

IMO the term "pilot shortage" is obviously a warning that flight decks are too cramped and only little guys need apply.