The ethnic theory of plane crashes

[169west]

What do you think about the "Ethnic theory of plane crashes (http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-ethnic-theory-of-plane-crashes/11013)" written in the Malcolm Gladwell's book Outliers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_(book))?

[FBW390]

I feel it`true. We learn this as well in CRM classes.

[turbocharged]

Neil Johnston published some data that shows that long haul accident rates are much the same across 'ethnic groups' while short haul rates are higher in less developed parts of the world. Gladwell has picked up on some old research that is not 'established fact' but rather an old 'theory' that has been effectively critiqued.

I'd worry if people were being taught this in CRM courses.

[Neptunus Rex]

Now let's wait for the rants from Third World and Dermatologically Different 'Pilots.'

[alf5071h]

Assuming that 75-80% of accidents involve human error, and with the theory that most error has origins in the organizational ‘system’, then the data noted by Turbo might have some validity.
The ‘accident prone’ short haul ethnic group could be exposed to more error inducing situations in their own country due to poor infrastructure – system weaknesses, but long haul operations less so, due to the destinations having fewer system weaknesses. Also, there may be higher standards of training and language for long haul operations – a product of ‘the system’.
Add to this the possibility that internal short haul aircraft may be the last to be replaced by modern equipment, then there could also be an technical contribution to the imbalance.

I like Hawkins’ view of this, and by including ethnicity in ‘accident proneness’ (Human Factors in Flight, 1987);
“In view of the lack of consistency and agreement in the use of the term accident proneness, it might be wise to discard it altogether as a concept and refer simply to individual differences in involvement in accidents. This allows all of the influencing elements to be considered equally without assuming a basic pre-eminence of any one and avoids the conceptual confusion which has plagued accident proneness.
In particular, it allows full consideration to be given of the shorter term influences which may be a more fruitful approach in accident prevention. Such an approach will certainly involve and educational process …”

I hope that the CRM educational process follows this advice.

[turbocharged]

alf,

the short hauls group are not 'accident-prone'. Johnston was quite clear. Infrastructure ( lack of precision approach aids, unreliable navaids, poor ATC) could explain the variation. And given that the short haul pilots graduated to long haul does this mean that they lose their 'accident proneness'?

Hawkin's approach doesn't actually help. Concentrating on 'individual differences' is just the same concept by a different name.

What a lot of people fail to do is go back to Hofstede's original work. Look at the distributions of scores. Things are not as clear cut as people seem to think. To make matters worse, CRM classes seem to only take 'power distance' as the key indicator. Uncertainty avoidance is sometimes mentioned, Individualism/collectivism maybe, masculinity rarely.

[johnriketes]

I have lived and worked in 9 different countries in my 40 year career in aviation.

Here are some of my observations.

In some countries, candidates are not selected on merit. Corruption plays a big part in this, as very often the best candidates are not always selected as the family doesn't have the clout or financial muscle to get the best applicants the position.

Attitude also can play a big part. In some countries, if you fly an aircraft, you immediately take on, or are given "God" like status. This can cause the effected to actually loose contact with reality at times. Hear how great you are, day in day out you will believe it and "become" infallible. This my friends can have fatal consequences when operating machinery. Politicians and leaders of industry can fall victim to this by surrounding themselves with a load of yes men.

Loss of face, can also be a big problem. Why commit employment and social suicide by admitting to a mistake? C.T.A., (cover thy a:mad:s) is the name of the game and dont you forget it. This can hinder progress on safety issues.

These 3 alone can be and is a huge problem. It will take at least one generation of breeding out, to get rid of the above in a lot of countries.

[turbocharged]

john,

OK, that's the situation in the UK and the US, what about the other countries you have worked in?

[johnriketes]

Same but far, far worse.

[4Greens]

Try a book by Graham Braithwaite called "Attitude or Latitude". It is an analysis of why Australia has a good safety record and covers all these issues.

[framer]

johnrik has pretty much summed it up in my view. I would only add that many of the things pilots from the US, Ausi, many parts of Europe, see as 'common sense' are actually trained into them. At primary school, at University, at flight school, and in numerous simulator sessions we pick up things and after a while they just seem 'bleeding obvious' to us.....work in many Asian/African countries for a while and you begin to realise that they are not obvious to someone who has not recieved the same education as you. My two cents.

[Makey]

Iam just having a question regarding this that....why a pilot’s ethnicity influences how likely he or she is to crash..?

Fire risk assessment (http://www.fire-safety-equipment.co.uk/)