Qantas In 5 Years Time?

[blade.runner]

What will the Qantas Group look like in 5 years time?
Jetstar will have grown significantly servicing most of Asia, New Zealand and Honolulu
Qantas Mainline will fly to LAX SFO JFK SIN FRA JNB BKK LHR HKG EZE and will run a mix of A380s and aging 744s.
The 787s have still not yet arrived
Jetstar will continue to cannibalize mainline domestically
Wages across the group will have been reduced significantly after most of the 13 EBAs have been renegotiated.
Alan Joyce will still be CEO.
Any thoughts?

[Wod]

QF used to do quite detailed Five-year plans. I doubt they're bothering this year.

I'll be fearles and demonstrate why I never excercised a position of power.

Years 1 & 2 essentially profitless with no dividends, but no major shocks.

Years 3 & 4 increasing profits, but nowhere near adequate for future growth.

Year 5 Good profit, healthy dividend.

Last official statement on 787 was

* Qantas Group firm orders reduce from 65 to 50 aircraft, comprising 35 B787-9s and 15 B787-8s;
* the Group's first 15 aircraft - B787-9s for Jetstar's international operations - delivered from mid-2013, around three years later than planned. Jetstar was to take delivery of 15 smaller B787-8s in mid-2010;
* 15 B787-8s follow over the 12 months from the fourth quarter of 2014 for Qantas' Australian domestic operations and to retire the remaining Qantas B767-300 fleet;



I doubt they'll meet that.

Don't agree that JQ is detrimental to the Group. The market will decide relative size of Mainline and Jetstar.

Real wages will definitely have reduced because we still have eighteen months of increasing national unemployment in the pipeline. On the upside I think QF staff numbers will increase because capacity will start growing this year.

I think Joyce will still be in place, not sure about Clifford though.

One thing to watch with Jetstar is the growth of the Asian off-shoots. They could provide an earlier lift to profits.

[KrispyKreme]

Well Jetstar will grow to be a big player in the Domestic market and QF will only do International Flights and the Domestic fleet will look like the picture below :}

http://images3.jetphotos.net/img/1/2/6/7/18382_1244887762.jpg

[34R]

Who knows what will happen, but one thing you can count on is that it will resemble nothing even remotely close to anything pontificated here.

[Wod]

Who knows what will happen, but one thing you can count on is that it will resemble nothing even remotely close to anything pontificated here.

True. Absolutely true:ok:

[The Green Goblin]

http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d111/mCGHEE09/Qantas3-1.jpg

I prefer to remain positive :ok:

[Zoomy]

I am with the Goblin,

What was wrong with "If it's not Boeing I am not going".:ok:

[KrispyKreme]

Ha yeah lets not start with the 777 green goblin and yes i would love QF to stay in the Domestic world , worst mistake not getting them!!! and Mr Dixon is now agreeing that QF should of got them:ugh::mad:

[blow.n.gasket]

One simple question please.
What happens to the LCC business model when World oil prices start racing back up to over $100 a barrel? One only has to read some of the reports by oil futures traders and they predict it could climb to over $200 a barrel, what happens to every facet of the transport industry then?

[The Green Goblin]

One simple question please.
What happens to the LCC business model when World oil prices start racing back up to over $100 a barrel? One only has to read some of the reports by oil futures traders and they predict it could climb to over $200 a barrel, what happens to every facet of the transport industry then?

Extinction :{

Or H20 powered engines will prevail, cold fusion will magically appear for power generation and we will learn that we have been exploring the galaxy for decades with field generating engines invented by the NAZI's in WW2.

One can only dream.

[Captain Sherm]

Just got an email saying JQ is entering the Tullamarine-SYD route with 10,000 $19 fares to kick off. Guess that's the Qantas response to Tiger

[Transition Layer]

Qantas in 5 years time?

Jetstar pilots all members of AIPA (or a united Australian Pilots Association), flying A320s domestically on QF B737 terms and conditions.

Jetstar and Qantas pilots flying B787s/A330s on the same terms and conditions.

All it will take is a bit of unity and some intestinal fortitude from JQ pilots to have some self belief and begin valuing their skills.

I know I'm f*cking dreaming but that's what 8 pints and some serious jet lag will do to you.

[Metro man]

QANTAS have difficulty retaining pilots due to deteriorating terms and conditions as the airline battles domestically against low costs and internationally against middle eastern and asian full service.

Difficult position as its overheads are too high to compete against low costs on price and its full service competitors CX/SQ/EK etc are very strong. Middle east/Asian hubs offer better connections, highly attractive fares and excellent service.

Job is seen as a good place to get an endorsement and 1000hrs on type before heading overseas. Direct entry captains hired from CX/EK, older pilots well cashed up who want to return home and fly for a few years before retiring. Lifestyle appeals to some who simply want to remain in Australia and accept the reduced terms and conditions as the price of living at home. Pilot recruitment can't be as picky as before. Length and amount of bond is a consideration for new joiners.

A,B,C,D scale pilot pay, 3 star hotels, other benefits reduced.

Reduced network, main trunk routes only domestically. Internationally retreats back to the traditionally well performing routes.

New aircraft acquired, essential to compete with the competition. Geriatric 767s and 744s retired. Smaller long range twins used to cater for reduced loads.

Industrial relations problems, everyone realises some thing must be done, as long as it doesn't involve any sacrifice on their part.

Jetstar grows its network as QFs shrinks. QF finds its place in the market, smaller, leaner and hopefully profitable.

[Gingerbread]

As the non clairvoyant type, I suspect that anybody’s ability to see where Qantas will be in 5 years is quite blurred at best. Nevertheless, articles like:

Qantas mainline losses touch AUD30 million a month (http://centreforaviation.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=9fd45cab90f09a9a18b2618c7&id=70c8df12bc&e=18f83c5fb3).

Qantas’ mainline flying business has gone from a AUD1.23 billion profit before tax to a AUD77 million loss in the space of 12 months. Were it not for a AUD126 million profit before tax from Jetstar (up 23.5%) and AUD310 million profit from its frequent flyer business (up 142%), the Group would have been deeply in the red.

And more of the same is expected. With Qantas mainline losing up to AUD30 million a month; the airline still faces a toxic combination of “high levels of volatility in the economic outlook, industry capacity, passenger demand, fuel prices and exchange rates continue”, making it “not possible to provide any profit guidance.”


Don’t fill me with optimism and led me to expect that the future will anything other than what most of us would like it to be. :uhoh:

[Ka.Boom]

The $3billion in cash and the $500million capital rasing two months ago.
Financially QF is in great shape

[Gingerbread]

On its face, Boom is on the money when he points out: $3billion in cash and the $500million capital raising two months ago..[means] financially QF is in great shape Nonetheless, keeping the airline's Investment Grade credit rating and the debit/equity ratio under 50%, won't be easy when the Company starts taking delivery of its many new aircraft, if it keeps burning cash at a rate $30M a month.

Without the $1.5B cost reduction Q Future is supposed to deliver, expect both the debit/equity ratio and the Investment Grade credit rating will go south - along with many other things we cherish in Qantas.

Is still a long way to go to get out of the woods. Don't sign up for a new car just yet. :oh:

[waren9]

Transition Layer

Oh how I wish you were right.

Sadly, you will never meet a more disinterested apathetic bunch as the average JQ Australia pilot.

Unfortunately, to go from B1900's to A320's on $140k/p.a. and a ****e contract (voting it up twice!) while many of the more senior ones live in the city of thier choice is enough for many of them.

And still they say in the crew rooms "I've got my command in MEL/SYD/SEQ so I'm alright Jack. Why should I join AIPA?"

Those who have spent time overseas shake their heads.

Maybe a few more shaftings from BB might change some minds.

Heres hoping. For all our sakes.

[SOPS]

Probably a stupid question....but....QF 767s must be around 25 years old. Why have the not replaced them with A330s, even as a temp measure?
Why are they all getting sent to Jetstar?

Standing by for incoming:}

[Transition Layer]

Because Jetstar makes all the money for the QF "Group"....duh

[UPPERLOBE]

Hang on while I find me anorak... here tis,

Qantas 767 birthdays.

OGA Sep 1988 through to OGV Jun 2000
ZXA Feb 1990 through to ZXG Oct 1994

Not quite 25 years, but not all pups either.

[SOPS]

Thanks Upper, some are not as old as I thought:ok:

[the rim]

the bus is NOT and i repeat NOT a domestic aircraft get some more new 767's they are the real workhourse for the dom fleet....no more fifi's good girl fifi staaaaay stay

[SOPS]

is the B767 line still open?

[cokecropduster]

The 767's are still being made. It would make sense to order more 767's with winglets...

[Gingerbread]

Good take on the future of the Qantas Group has been aired on Business Sunday.

Is available from:Qantas profits drop 90pc - Inside Business - ABC (http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2009/s2663906.htm)

You'll need Broardband Flash, to view the interview between Alan Joyce and Alan Kohler.

[7378FE]

A couple of things I've noticed about AJ since he became CEO at QF :

1... He now wears a tie.
2... He has lost the ability to smile.

7378FE

[XanaduX]

Did I hear him say Jetstar 787s will be operating to LAX when they get here?

[Ken Borough]

To elude that Jetstar has more of a name in Japan than Qantas is sad..

But.......what sort of name? Good, better, best, or worse, worser, worst?;)

[Bad Hat Harry]

The absolute nonsense that masqerades as CEO commentary is mindboggling.
Qantas has been flying to Japan for over 45 years and up until a few years ago had a name for quality.Then the 743s arrived and continually broke down.This did a lot of damage to QFs reputation.But to suggest that GeoffsTart is better known is laughable.
Unfortunately Qantas' days in this market are numbered.This will bring about an even further decline in japanese tourism to Australia
The rhetoric is the same as Dixon's just with an Irish accent.

[hoss]

i predict one of the 'qantas kids' from the choir will be a serious contender to take over the mess of the joyce legacy.

[Packs on]

TL,
completely agree and share your optimism.My understanding is that there is something in the order of 300 jq pilots who are now AIPA members.Good progress considering there were only about 5 members 12months ago.

Waren9,
also agree about the apathy amongst certain members of the group but attitudes appear to be changing. There would only be around 120 B1900 drivers left in a group of about 600.Lets not tar everyone with the same brush.

[Pedota]

Good point Hoss . . . but I must say that I am affronted by the ‘decadent’ use of money to fund and air such extravagant advertisements on prime time TV.

In my view, the advertisements belong to another ‘pre-recession’ era where we were all spending money as if there was no tomorrow. It takes a LOT of individual passenger fares to LAX to pay for such a campaign. I think savvy customers are focussing on value IF they are choosing to travel and not the ‘feel good factor’ of which company transports them to their destination.

IMHO, the advertisements reflect the brand as being ‘yesterday’ and ‘legacy’ and all of a sudden the Jet* brand is looking fresh and lively.

But that’s just my view – the advisements may well work and the customers may well flock back to the higher cost ‘mainline’ brand.

Please feel free to disagree!

Cheers

Pedota

[toolish]

Warren9 and Packs On

You guys are kidding yourselves. Apathy is not just confined to the ex 1900 drivers. As I see it there is 5 groups of pilots in Jetstar, if you want to think that way.
-ex 1900 drivers
-ex 717 drivers that had overseas Jet experience and never flew the 1900
-the initial Jetstar management pilots and mates (ex Ansett post dispute).
-other ex Ansett post dispute pilots that eventually got in (not the chief pilot mates)
-pre 89ers that finally got a chance to come home after the above two groups
-newbys GA/Qlink/Rex etc

It would be nice if we could at least consider ourselves as one group of pilots "Jetstar pilots" as we push forwards to be one group of pilots "Qantas group pilots"

In my opinion they are all as pathethic as each other in the "I am alright thanks Jack" stakes, but slowly things are changing. I am begining to realise that it is simply in pilots nature to look after number one no matter what company they previously or currently work for, very disappointing.:ugh:

[struggling]

Probably not just the mind set of Aussie pilots Toolish?

The nature of Australian industrial life has seemingly been built around adversarial arge-barge where the 'gladiator' with the best resources, most cunning and/or the most determination get’s the Lion’s share.

Nonetheless, pleased to read in The Australian today:
JULIA Gillard today will concede that Australia's industrial relations culture is holding back the productivity boost promised by her new workplace system.

The Deputy Prime Minister's push follows business complaints that the new Fair Work Australia system is entrenching an outmoded adversarial workplace culture based on the industrial tribunal, the unions and awards.

Full article available at:Gillard seeks 'cultural change' in the workplace | The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25977007-2702,00.html)



One can only hope that the GFC has provided good reason for all concerned to craft a better Industrial Landscape.:\

[Packs on]

Toolish,

I may have hit a nerve, however it certainly wasnt my intent.I am one of those ex 1900 drivers who considers himself incredibly fortunate. The message I was trying to convey was that at least the trend vector is heading the right direction WRT the majority joining one industrial body.I just hope the trend continues.

[waren9]

Toolish

I was not tarring all with the same brush. Not my intention.

Agree with your view of the seperate "groups" that make up JQ pilots but its (with a few exceptions) the 1900/717 guys who are sitting back with the whole "Whats AIPA doing for me?" attitude.

If every pilot took that attitude, there'd be no progress at all.

In the words of a US President once, "Its not what your Union can do for you. Its what you can do......."

Or something like that. I would suggest that its these guys with the most history in the company that have the most to contribute and arguably have the greatest vested interest in long term outcomes, yet they sit back expecting results before joining the union, if indeed they do at all.

It doesnt work like that.

[QCPog]

amen to that

[Unphased]

John Alwyn-Jones at TravelBlackboard says:Times they are a changing in Qantas and sooner that we or their staff might ever have thought possible, with Joyce also saying last week that Jetstar plans to fly to Southern Europe within two years, with Athens, Rome and Milan on the cards following the delivery of new long-haul A330 aircraft later next year.Get the full story from: The times they are a changing in Qantas - etravelblackboard.com (http://www.etravelblackboard.com/showarticle.asp?id=96217&nav=61)

[surfside6]

Change has been a constant companion at Qantas since privatisation so whats with the surprise by journos?
Qantas will continue to change and adapt.
But just like the railways in NSW it has been poorly managed for years.
Fines for collusion, wrong aircraft types,low morale,aging equipment,bonuses for incompetence.This list is long.

[Buster Hyman]

Last Qantas staff member unveils new Premium Business Class.

http://www.centreforaviation.com/images/resized/stories/ceos/Asia_Pacific/Airlines/Qantas/Qantas!CEO!Alan_Joyce!1-160x.jpg http://www.ideaaxe.com/Images/qantas.jpg

[Ken Borough]

Buster,

Sheer genius!! :D:D:D

With an eye for juxtaposition and humour, I think you could certainly and surely afford to give up your day job.;)

Who votes for Buster's effort as "Post of The Year"?

[Normasars]

All here are quick to sh1tcan the mighty 76. Just a question for all the know alls out there.
What would you replace it with then?

As somebody already said the 330 certainly aint no domestic a/c. The narrow bodies are not in the same league. New 76's; well that's a big IF. I still think the CF6 OG's are a very comfortable and quiet a/c to travel in. And the performance is nothing short of spectacular, but that is beside the point.The ZX's are justifiably looking a little tied , as the cycles must be sky high, but heck, give me a wide body any day over a "maggot" or a 320.

[dizzylizzy]

I couldn't find the specific thread that was previously discussing the transfer of one of the A332's to JQi, its officially EBK and will be operating in early Dec.