Global downturn and the job market

[fourgolds]

OK , with airline managers having the ball in their court lets see if they are right. PLease folks add / correct to this post as you see fit. I am just deducing this based on what I have read here and seen in the press.

the following are/have laid off/furloughed etc.

Netjets Europe (300 pilots)
Spanair ( 150 pilots)
Austrian Arrows ( 30 Aircraft and associated crews)
SQ Cargo ( almost the entire fleet and its crews)
SQ Mainline ( not renewing contracts as they come up for renewal)
Continental ( announced today 1700 job cuts , not sure how many pilots)
Almost all the US majors ( furlough)
Qantas ( Job cuts not sure how many pilots)
Air Mauritius ( not renewing contracts as they come up for renewal)
CAL / EVA not renewing contracts as they come up for renewal.

Am I right or wrong ? please add /subtract as you see fit. Just time for a little reality check for us all.

[Akktu Stakki]

SAS (SK) will make 74 pilots redundant

[Street]

Cargo B (744) bankrupt.
Many 737 drivers from XL and Sterling without a job.

[Tu.114]

As to Austrian Arrows (Tyrolean), unless You know something I do not, it is not THAT bad. They want to take the CRJ fleet out of service until summer flight plan 10 and most DH8-300 until summer 11 (might keep a few for short intra-austrian hops though), so that comes up to -20 planes. But there are open orders for 4 DH8-400 with the first to be delivered in autumn 09, so the worst-case scenario for now is -16 planes. They might order another -400 and some F100 additionally, but this has not yet been decided. Still this means a reduction in workforce though.

[ankh]

And those still working are .... economising .... LAX parking lot is home away from home for airline workers - Los Angeles Times (http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-lax-colony20-2009jul20,0,4549617.story) I sure hope they're getting enough sleep between flights.

[ADFS]

Spains a mess:

LTE, bankrupt, approx 110 pilots airbus
Girjet, bankrupt, approx 85 pilots airbus, boeing, fokker 100
Futura, bankrupt, approx 400 pilots, boeing
Gadair, ???, approx 16 pilots, boeing
Hola, ???, 75% laid off, boeing
LagunAir, bankrupt, 35 pilots, embraer
Air Comet, on the verge, 400 plus pilots, airbus, legacy
Spanair, talking about further layoffs, airbus, mc donnell douglas
Air Nostrum, lay offs, 180 approx, canadair, fokker, atr

and a few others that dont come to mind now, mainly cargo, executive layoffs
and no perspectives at all.

:ugh:

[A-V-8R]

I think United Air Lines, is getting ready to furlough 1100 or so.

A few months ago I did some math and came up with that at least 9000 US airline pilots will be without a job by September 2009.

I'm 59 in August, and will retire at age 60. I can't do this until age 65.......

Prior to September 2008 Parc Aviation used to have 125 +/- job vacancies at any one time.

Now they seem to post 15-20 job vacancies.

[boredcounter]

As I accept you all as gentlemen aviators, please also remember many 'operational' jobs go on the ground. the numbers and income may seem far apart, but it's all family income.

[JuniorMan]

Continental Airlines has 147 pilots currently laid off. Completely unsubstantiated rumors stating 150-300 more pilots may be furloughed this fall.

[JuniorMan]

Unfortunately, 308 letters of intent to furlough were just sent out at COA a few minutes ago. Disgraceful....... :{

[Sqwak7700]

I don't think your info on Singapore Airlines Cargo is accurate. CH Aviation shows them as having 1 747-400 in the desert, the other 13 still flying.

Hardly "most of the fleet". As far as crew, I couldn't tell you. Maybe they are using -400 passenger crews for the freighter ops, but I think that would probably be more expensive than keeping the freighter pilots.

At Cathay & Dragonair, crew control is getting very creative in using guys cause they are desperately short. The CAD has even advised them to stop certain practices because they are illegal, like counting dead-head time as rest to be followed by duty. :=

[kbrockman]

Delta Air Lines no longer expects 2009 profit | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56L2IR20090722)

"..............In May, Delta offered pilots a voluntary separation package in hopes of reducing expenses. But only 215 of the 9,400 eligible pilots signed up, the union that represents them said last week."

More involuntary lay-offs are in the pipeline, rumors in BRU goins as much as 800 pilots might loose their position at DL/NW.

[tech...again]

Myair, Europe, has just had its licence revoked by ENAC in Italy as of 0001/24 July - Airbus A320s

[Huck]

I'll bet more Delta pilots would have taken the early retirement if they still had their pensions.

In fact, all but a few that DID take it were ex-NWA....

[Springer1]

"I'm 59 in August, and will retire at age 60. I can't do this until age 65......."

I hear you. I retired last Aug at 59 and have not looked back.

[GlueBall]

It had been mentioned in the Straits Times that the recession in Singapore is already over. . . ! But even if you don't believe that, just look at links such as: Pilot Jobs, Aviation Jobs, Aviation Employment, Career Fairs, Job Fairs (http://www.climbto350.com) and you will find lots of jet jobs going begging in east asia, especially in China, Korea and Vietnam. . . waiting for current, qualified, willing and able pilots. :rolleyes:

[411A]

...and you will find lots of jet jobs going begging in east asia, especially in China, Korea and Vietnam. . . waiting for current, qualified, willing and able pilots.

Yup.
The problem is, many pilots will not undertake nor consider off-shore positions.

[Huck]

Then they need to pay more, don't they.

[boredcounter]

Guys, could someone define that for me please?

I understand it is bad news, but what are the implications?


Thanks,


Bored

[Al E. Vator]

Having seen many economic cycles this is standard and indeed far less severe than what has occured before.

The economies of Asia are already starting to improve (and with them cargo and pax loads) and the rest of the world will ineviatably follow, it's just the rate of improvement that is unknown.

As for pilots; on a global level there just aren't enough. There might be too many in South Africa or the UK but temporary economic hiccups notwithstanding they are short in the Middle East and many parts of Asia and will only become more so.

As a result of huge airliner buying sprees over the last few years there are simply not enough qualified and experienced pilots globally to fly these aircraft. Whilst it might mean the ability to move away from ones' homeland to fly professionally there will be jobs galore in the next 5 years for aviators.

Along with this inevitable shortage/crisis (which we were actually already seeing before it was masked by the current temporary economic wobbles) will be a great improvement in Professional aircrew terms and conditions. There must be - it's simple Economics 101 - Supply and Demand.

Pilots are aging and retiring and there aren't that many to replace them. The military aren't letting go of crews (they have either already gone or are busy supporting historically very much downsized airforces in Afghanistan/Iraq etc). Young commercial pilots aren't training because it's too expensive and the perceived rewards are (correctly) not worth the initial financial outlay.

So it's important not to get caught up in the Chicken Little The Sky Is Falling mentality of analysing how many jobs have been lost at which carriers and look at the big-picture and longer term.

Yes sure the above figures are of concern, particularly if you are one of those affected but they are most likely to be used by unscrupulous managers as an excuse as to why they can reduce your current employment terms. Don't fall into that trap.

For pilots with a decent amount of jet time the future is very rosy indeed.

[flufdriver]

I would second what Al E. Vator has comented.

Of course that is of little comfort to the laid-off Pilot who is trying to survive until things improve.

my understanding is that when the global situation does improve there is likely to be a tremendous shortage of (experienced) Pilots for all the reasons mentioned already in these forums.

let us hope that organizations like IFALPA will then step up to the plate and work towards adequate compensation and working conditions for Pilots by backing the individual associations in their quest for betterment.

The gains have to be made during the good times, because as certain as the next upswing is, at some point another downturn will follow.

Now that the industry is talking about pax standing for short flights, I hope they won't get the idea that the Pilots should be standing as well! Nah... I guess its more likely they'll try to design us out of the aircraft altogether!

fluf

[4PW's]

Utter rubbish about SQ Cargo.

The company is renewing all contracts.

Not one pilot has been laid off and every flight is full to the gunnals.

GFC???

What GFC?

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good story...

[kbrockman]

Certainly you would think so after reading the Boeing statement about the Indian market ;
Boeing Sees India Growth Among ?Greatest? in World (Update2) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_D09or2.sNM)
....Indian carriers may buy 1,000 new jets worth $100 billion in the next two decades, Dinesh Keskar, president of Boeing India, said in New Delhi today. The country accounts for 3 percent of Boeing’s commercial-jet market globally, he said.

and...

Keskar said. “‘The potential for future growth of air travel, both domestically and internationally, is among the greatest in the world.”

.... and also after all the exciting news comming out of other parts of the far -East ;
Singapore Air Loses Passengers to ?McDonald?s Model? Carriers - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag0xHT89T.QA)
PT Lion Mentari Airlines, Indonesia’s biggest low-fare carrier, is buying 178 Boeing Co. planes, the highest number for the aircraft maker in Asia over the last five years. Malaysia’s AirAsia, with a tagline “Now Everyone can Fly,” has ordered 175 aircraft from Airbus SAS, the largest client for single- aisle models in the region for the world’s biggest planemaker.

Hundreds of jobs in the near future for both A32X and B73X fleet expansion plans, undoubtedly plenty of position open for people willing to live the expat live.


to 4PW
Utter rubbish about SQ Cargo.

The company is renewing all contracts.

Not one pilot has been laid off and every flight is full to the gunnals.

I certainly hope you're right about that but given the current numbers there is certainly a risk that some planes will be parked for a long time to come and consequently jobs will have to go (also in the Cargo section I'm afraid), and as you know , contract renewals don't mean that much in SIN when it comes to job security for EXpats.
quote from same article in 2nd link

Singapore Air’s passenger numbers slumped 19 percent in June, the eighth consecutive drop

[fourgolds]

4pw,s. Thanks for the clarification. As mentioned in origonal post " add /amend as required". All deduced from PPRUNE itself. Does highlight the inaccuracy of the forum though.

so just to confirm then , has SQ laid off / not renewed contracts on the freighter as well as the pax ?

also whats the story in india , are Jet renewing contracts ? , do foreign nationals have to leave within/by a certain time frame ?

tks 4G

[Bigmouth]

there are simply not enough qualified and experienced pilots globally to fly these aircraft
Very true. But who cares as long as there are plenty of trained monkeys around willing to fly for peanuts. Certainly the airlines themselves don't nor does the bargain hunting flying public.

[4PW's]

Apologies; the utter rubbish comment reads as a bit harsh...sorry.

No-one's been laid off. There were rumors from on-high a few months back that...well, best not to say.

Contracts are being renewed. That's what matters now. No paid leave and options for early departure have been withdrawn for Captains.

That said, if you were a technical analyst.....

[fourgolds]

4pw,s . No worries , no offence taken. Its about establishing what is really going on. Glad things seem ( secure) for now at SQ. Must say I,m glad they are managing it as you say. Esp for those of us considering SQ one day in the future when things turn around . I think your management at least recognise this. If they took a Draconian outlook on this they would find themselves up the creek without a paddle when this all turns around and they need people. At least a little goodwill is present ( at least from the outside anyway).

Fly safe , 4g,s.

[Jimmy Do Little]

and Vietnam. . . waiting for current, qualified, willing and able pilots. Especially if you're willing to come in at LESS than the currently accepted salary!!!!


Quote:
there are simply not enough qualified and experienced pilots globally to fly these aircraft
Very true. But who cares as long as there are plenty of trained monkeys around willing to fly for peanuts. Certainly the airlines themselves don't nor does the bargain hunting flying public.


Trained? You would be based somewhere in Asia, yes?

[expat400]

4PW.

On March 9 25 Captains and FO:s in SQ Cargo were summoned to a meeting at SQ Sports Club. They were given a termination letter and stripped of their ID:s and tokens on the spot. They had between 3-20 months remaining on their contracts.

I'd call that a "lay off", wouldn't you?

[fourgolds]

Well well , now thats a different story.

[800driver]

Ryanair are looking for 70 direct entry commands, must be 737 rated. Appx 250 cadets in the training system. No requirement for direct entry F/Os at the moment :( .

[somethingclever]

Can you apply for DE captain if you meet the requirements placed on their internal upgrades at FR? Maybe do an upgrade evaluation? I meet all their other requirements but I don't have P1 time on the 738.

[800driver]

It’s unlikely at the moment. It wasn’t so long ago that Ryanair did recruit DE F/O’s with the chance of fast track to Command.

[tdk90]

U.S Congress about to mandate that both pilots must hold an ATP for all airline operations. This will hopefully sow the seeds of a shortage when hiring starts again and also kill off some of the pilot-puppy mills over here.. In addition, rest requirements about to change dramatically in the U.S. which might necessitate more pilots to cover the same amount of flying...

[kbrockman]

U.S Congress about to mandate that both pilots must hold an ATP for all airline operations. This will hopefully sow the seeds of a shortage when hiring starts again and also kill off some of the pilot-puppy mills over here.. In addition, rest requirements about to change dramatically in the U.S. which might necessitate more pilots to cover the same amount of flying...

So they are basically forcing the airlines to expand their pilotbase, I wonder how that will work , a lot of them are hemorraging money , a big extra cost like that could very well push some of the ones that are already struggeling finally over the cliff.

Also it won't sit well with a lot of (potential) investors .


Not that I'm against more jobs for pilots but in the end it is a business and it is there to make money and we all know how hard that is in todays aviation world.

The ATP thing might be a good idea.

[tdk90]

a big extra cost like that could very well push some of the ones that are already struggeling finally over the cliff.

If you worked over here you'd know that that would be a good thing.....

[Maisk Rotum]

Korean Air is still hiring in almost every aircraft in almost every seat;

All this while certain elements in the organisation are busy failing expats on bogus checks and and firing them and others on less than honest and honourable grounds.

Try them if you dare...

[impartial]

Not to detract from the seriousness of redundancy at any age, but it would be interesting to know the demographic split.

Can/are the airlines announcing pilot work force cuts acheiving this mostly from the bottom of the seniority list and by non-renewal of temp contracts, or is the downsizing being acheived by voluntary redundancy/early retirements?

With the industry as cyclical as it is (i've heard 10 year cycles of peak and trough recruitment) where are we in terms of an ageing pilot workforce?

I hope I am in as secure a job as any at the moment and wish good luck to those who have not been so fortunate.