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wakeupcall
19th Jun 2009, 23:55
Is being a pilot still a worthwhile career for newcomers?

Hi everyone,

I am a 22 yr old wannabe CX pilot, currently done university and applying for the CPP (I am a local HK). I am questioning whether the pilot profession is still worthwhile for young people like me :rolleyes:. (Or, should I just keep flying ONLY as a hobby?) I have listed several (monetary) concerns that I have for this profession. (Now, I realize it is hard and stressful to be an airline pilot. This is why I have to make sure the efforts I put in now are worthwhile) So, I hope everyone can give me some help and share his/her opinions. Thanks!

(Note: I did not say I want to be a pilot because of money (clearly...it is not possible). I just want to do what I love, have a loving family in the future, and at least live comfortably (middle to upper middle class..). It is the last point that I worry about. I have concerns about this profession. Keep this in mind when you read the following. When I am 55, it will be year 2042. )

a)The pay (or pay cut)
I did some research in this forum and found out that the CX pay scale has been deteriorating over the last 16 years: from the A scale to the B scale (year 1993) and recently to another confusing pay-scale with RA65. Now, when I look at the numbers of this confusing pay scale, I think they still compare fairly well with other professions out there (although not as many as it used to be). But, how likely is this “deteriorating trend” going to continue overtime? Is this as low as it can go? How likely will another lower pay scale be introduced in 10 years time? A career is around 30 years long, and I would not want to find myself switching out in the middle.

b)Inflation
Again, when I look at the salary of a FO/SFO of this new scale, I still think they are good numbers compared to many jobs out there. But, these numbers will be not be as great in 10 to 15+ years if they don’t keep up with the inflation. My questions are: do you guys get a 2% raise every year? (Just like this year for HKG based staff) If not, how about a bigger % raise every few year? And, how likely is that? Or, does the management simply let inflation deteriorate the living standard of pilots?

c)Bored of flying?:ugh:
For those working now, do you still love flying? Does the excitement wear off after 4-5 years in the job? How long does it take to get bored (if at all)? Even though I love flying now… but, if the feeling is going to die off after a few years and the pay keeps going down….then I wouldn’t want to be in this profession in the first place… I can just keep flying as a hobby.


In summary, I am questioning whether the pilot profession is still worthwhile for young people like me. It seems like I have already answered my own questions. But, I would like to keep an open mind and see everyone’s opinions. Am I being overly pessimistic? Where can I get more opinions? I used to think that a CX pilot should have a great future with the rapid economic growth of Asia. On the other hand, I am concern about pay cut, inflation, the advent of low cost carriers, and that the future advances in autopilot might take more responsibilities (and more money?) away from the pilots.:ugh:

Sure, some people might argue I should do what I love for my living. But, there should be a limit. (And, this limit will be different for each person, considering his/her opportunity cost from not pursuing other more lucrative professions.) The LAST THING that I want to have in 10 to 15 + years is to be away from my family 50% of the time while making an undesirable living (and got bored of flying). Sadly, this is already happening in the US at a regional level. (I am referring to the Buffalo Plane Crash this year).

To me, it just seems like this profession is going to attract wannabes, no matter how low the pay will get. Everyone must have dreamed of flying. But, I do respect pilots for protecting passengers’ safety in the air!


Thanks for reading and for your help!
I also welcome PM.

broadband circuit
20th Jun 2009, 01:27
wakeupcall - what an appropriate handle.

Normally I tell wannabes to go away to the wannabes forum, but you have done a commendable amount of research, and deserve an answer.

a)
Is this as low as it can go?

We thought B-Scale was as low as it could go, then there was "Freighter Scale", then "Unified Scale".

But it's not just salary, there are other side benefits as well. Admittedly, LEPs don't get housing (except as a Captain) or education, but other things like staff travel & medical are constantly being slowly degraded.

When economic times are tough, we get bombarded with the phrase "market forces" as an excuse to attack our conditions & pay, yet during the good times, they are very good at resisting those same "market forces"

b)
Or, does the management simply let inflation deteriorate the living standard of pilots?

Short answer: Yes.

Long Answer: Yes. See a) above.

c)
For those working now, do you still love flying?

Personally, yes, although over a whole career (CX & pre-CX), there are ups & downs, with times you want to walk away, and other times you re-discover your love of flying. On balance, enjoyment factor has come out on top for me in 20+ years. With RA 65, you'll be able (in theory) to ask me again in another 20 years.


As you say, a personal career decision. Talk with your relative, he'll have a better insight than you give him credit for.


The best description I've ever heard about working at CX is this:

It's good when your near the jets, bad when you're near the buildings.

Very true


Good Luck

Lowkoon
20th Jun 2009, 05:45
My two cents worth, I guess the industry is going through a paradigm shift where we are realising that the 'career' is becoming a job, and not one that you do for the money. Can anyone else name an 'in demand' career where we are earning less now than we did in the 80's?

The hey day for aviation is well and truely over, but those of us still in it find this hard to accept, (understandably). What was once a desireable career and lifestyle has slowly been chipped away to the 'sweat shop' flying conditions offered by low cost carriers the world over. The flow on effect from that, is that management compare our salaries to those of the LCCs, and terms and conditions are gradually being erroded industry wide. Resentment sets in as management conveniently dont apply these same erroding conditions to themselves, quite the opposite, they are compensated for reducing our conditions, ie they are payed more if they find a way to pay us less.

If you want to be a pilot, then be a pilot. If you want to be a high flying aviator with an enviable lifestyle, with incredible perks and all the trimmings fortune can afford you, and the time off to enjoy it, then build a time machine and go back 30 years.

I would never encourage a family member to follow this career, and I know I am not alone in this sentiment, nor am I proud of it. As for the trend in conditions, there is nothing on the horizon that will change the downward direction. Expect further cost cuts and negative pressure on wages and conditions. Airline profits the world over have evapourated. The only area of positive growth wage wise for the last 20 years is management wages. The ratio of management wages to employee wages in this industry is the only positive wage trend. Dont do it for the money.

No doubt I am about to cop some flack from the novice, 'star in the eye, I fly a big jet' types. Bring it on you deluded nancy boys! :E

wakeupcall
20th Jun 2009, 06:25
Thanks for those that replied. :) I was thinking of posting my concerns in the wannabe forum, but I really want to hear the opinions from those currently working in CX / other airlines. Thanks again!

jed_thrust
20th Jun 2009, 07:17
I have been flying for more than 30 years: approximately half with the military and the other half here in HKG. The following quote sums up my feelings perfectly:

I would never encourage a family member to follow this career, and I know I am not alone in this sentiment, nor am I proud of it

Simple as that...


:(

Edited to add: There is a quote from someone that goes along the lines of: "Find a job that you love and you will never have to work a day in your life". I suspect many, if not all of us, started out like this, but the brutal reality is that being an airline pilot now is a very tough gig. Can you think of one other profession where you are not allowed to take your skills and experience to another employer?

holdmetight
20th Jun 2009, 07:30
you are not allowed to take your skills and experience to another employer

why wouldn't you be allowed to do that?

4PW's
20th Jun 2009, 10:25
he was not good enough for any other careers other than to be a pilot…

Windup.

Surprised you all fell for it.

Lowkoon
20th Jun 2009, 12:48
I thought that comment gave the post even more credibility. Do you know any 'outstanding intellects' amongst us that gave up a budding career in astro physics to tackle the intellectual challenge of flying a circuit in a 152? Ever wondered if university doctorates are multiple choice like ATPL's? Rocket science it aint. Common sense, situational awareness and experience cant be taught, are never quantified and tested, but are the things that save asses. We could all name examples of intellects that can calculate the gravity influence of planets on the speed of light, but cant tie their own laces. Take his comment as a compliment.

Basil
20th Jun 2009, 12:49
I realize it is hard and stressful to be an airline pilot
In general I did not find civil aviation stressful, however, I have flown for one company which seems to go out of its way to make it so :*

broadband circuit
20th Jun 2009, 15:11
I wouldn't necessarily call them 'outstanding intellects', but I know lots of pilots at CX that gave up other careers to follow their love of flying.

In fact, I even know of a few that were/are qualified to pursue a career in astrophysics.

To keep perspective on the debate, we used to be run by a nuclear physicist, and look where that got us........:ugh:

Lowkoon
21st Jun 2009, 00:55
BC, thats the point. Academic qualifications dont convert into success in this career, in fact, my experience is that it is quite the opposite. Your comments support my observation that academic qualifications do not translate into being a good operator, or manager for that matter, therefore, whether intended as a wind up or not, wakeup call's original comment was actually complimentary, even if his original intent wasn't.

I have found the 3 and 4 times tables far more useful in my flying career than calculus and complex numbers.

SIC
21st Jun 2009, 06:02
he was not good enough for any other careers other than to be a pilot

I love this statement. You just answered your question. HAHAHAha

Used to be that you had to be the best of the best, you had to get through a tough selection process where you had to beat hundreds of guys to it, you had to have flown Air Force jets and gone to war etc etc.

Now all you need is :

1.Being dumb enough to not be able to follow any other career.
2. Enough cash to buy a pilots licence - which they will give to anyone these days - ( 9/11 hijackers being a prime example)

Arcla
21st Jun 2009, 07:08
Wake up call...buddy...

When i started flying i had no questions about any of the crap you are talking about. All i wanted to do was fly! Fullstop.

You clearly have no passion or love for flying.

So - don't.


If you are simply looking for a career then Cathay is not for you. You will find yourself in a job for which you have no love and no passion and Cathay is certainly NOT the place you will find these.

Do us all a favour and go and become something else.

Sorry.

wakeupcall
21st Jun 2009, 08:32
Thank you everyone for your help.

My thoughts:

“You clearly have no passion or love for flying.”

Just because I list out my monetary concerns, this does not mean I have no passion for flying.

There are many ways to “rank” careers:
For some, how fun the job is would get a “90% to 100%” weight.
For others, how fun the job is would only get a “30% to 40%” weight.

Different people have different priorities.

I come from the latter group, and hence my situation/outcome will be different than yours (Even though we both love flying)

(Of course, I understand some things are just hard to quantify. Humans aren't computers. We pick our "best" decision based on both logic AND feelings. But, this is another story)


“He was not good enough for any other career other than flying”

Again, I said he was an exception. I like to think of pilots as smart beings. I think many of you here can succeed in other careers too.

But, if the profession continues to deteriorate, then in 30 years time (just a random number), won't you think it may be dominated by people who are not good enough for anything other than flying?

KAG
21st Jun 2009, 10:16
We'll be out of oil in 20 years so that will be the end of it anyway.

Well, that really is a possibility.
It would be foolish not taking into account the fuel factor.

A future pilot should get all the information before making a decision. I would do some more research about fuel if I were you...
You will always find optimistic individuals who will say it's going to be fine because whatever reason. They may be right... Maybe.
Watch out.

wongsuzie
21st Jun 2009, 14:08
Have to say it: and we look like ****e!! Really I compare my sister who is one year older, but I look tens years older than her.
Sad fact flying accelrates the aging process.

factor that in..

FOCX
21st Jun 2009, 14:13
KAG, I think you'll find DB was joking. If oil does run out they'll have found another fuel to replace it, if not we're all dooooommed:} I wouldn't be making a career decision based on oil availability as a factor!

KAG
21st Jun 2009, 14:45
KAG, I think you'll find DB was joking.
I am not.

Anyway let the future be the judge, because for now any guess is as good as any other.

Sorry but this factor brings some more uncertainty to this career, not admitting it is simply denialism.

poina
21st Jun 2009, 15:05
I had an old girlfriend tell me 25+ years ago, "You don't work", I said, what do you mean I have to go tomorrow, She said" You always say you have to go flying, not you have to go to work". If you have that feeling about aviation, Go for it! If not, find something else.

FOCX
22nd Jun 2009, 12:01
KAG, if there's going to be no oil in 20 yrs the world is going to come to a screeching halt, I don't think so and I'm not in denial! They will have a replacement or we are all in deep trouble regardless of your area of work and again, I'm not anywhere near convinced that will happen.

betpump5
22nd Jun 2009, 12:28
Wakeupcall,

The problem with wannabes (generally speaking) is that they still think that being a pilot has the glamour that it did in the 70s. A status that was highly respected, a salary (where at the time) was amazing. Passengers actually listened whenever the Captain addressed the cabin rather than yabbering on and on. And, lets not forget, a stunning hostess as a wife.

The fact that your first point was related to salary demonstrates this. When I initially wanted to be a pilot, I did not care about the salary. I had a father who was made redundant three times as a pilot, and which ultimately destroyed his marriage. In the end, at the tender age of 50, he had enough of the aviation industry because "he was being spitroasted - :mad:ed at both ends!"

In terms of salary, unless you are the CP of a major legacy carrier (or any carrier) your pay would never reach the heights that it once did. But by no means will you have a salary on par with a taxi driver, or a lorry driver!

I just can't understand posts like this. No one sets out to be a pilot for the money. I'm sorry if other current pilots disagree but this is not a job. Its a vocation. Doctors don't become doctors for the money.

My advice is that if you want to be rich, then don't become a pilot.

'round midnight
22nd Jun 2009, 13:05
Wakeupcall,

If you sometimes look up to the sky and see a beautiful 744, 777 or even an Airbus, and you say to yourself, 'f~~ck me, I'd love to do that,' then go for it!

It's not a perfect job, but until you've tried it, you'll be miserable wondering what it's like.

Just a thought.

'RM

jonathon68
22nd Jun 2009, 14:42
This is a question which almost every generation asks the preceding generation, about almost every career.

My father had a fairly good run with his flying career culminating in a comfortable retirement in Europe. He supported my evident enthusiasm for flying throughout my teens with a sensible mix of encouragement and realism.

I have been flying for a living for 19 years now, and have never seriously doubted my choices. For me it was and is all about flying. I love flying and enjoy working with guys/girls who are there for the same reason. However the economic "rain on my parade" during the last decade or so definitely leave me with a feeling that I am working in a dying profession.

It is interesting to note that the people I graduated University with in the mid-late 80's have encountered similar career disappointment. While I have gone through considerable "angst" through this period I remain basically happy to end up flying wide-body jets from the left hand seat.

Most of my Uni mates were chemical engineers, who seemed to have a future paved with gold in the mid-80's in Europe. Sadly that all changed when the iron curtain came down in 1989 onward. Not a single one remains in their career field 20 year's later, with multiple redundancies, interim commutes and periods of uncertainty ensuing. So all careers are now facing the same insecurities etc.

My advice is, if you are exclusively obsessed about flying above all else, then go for it. If not,then do something else.

KAG
22nd Jun 2009, 17:27
KAG, if there's going to be no oil in 20 yrs the world is going to come to a screeching halt, I don't think so and I'm not in denial! They will have a replacement or we are all in deep trouble regardless of your area of work and again, I'm not anywhere near convinced that will happen.

I didn' t say on this thread oil is going to come to "a screeching halt", I just said that soon or later oil supply could really become an issue, and what is the most sensitive to oil supply and economy? Yes, aviation.

If I were a young 20 years old boy asking around if becoming a pilot is worth it, it would mean that I want a flawless career. And we cannot tell him that during all his 45 years of future career he, for sure, won' t have any difficulties related to oil supply. It would be lying to him. So that is why I suggested him to do some more research concerning fuel.

If in the future the production decrease, even a bit, we won' t be able to buy oil the price we buy it today. It is a real possibility. And you are smart enough to figure out what would be the result on somebody' s pilot career.

Sike
22nd Jun 2009, 17:52
Simple Answer: No

smo-kin-hole
22nd Jun 2009, 18:23
1. If you sincerely have no affection for aviation and airplanes do not move
you at all, please do something else.

2. While it is true that flying does not require a stellar intellect or college-
level math, it does require a general competence. You also had better give
a few thoughts to those pesky passengers. Their lives, all of them, are in
your hands, and their safety is the top priority. If you lack the ability to
delegate, or you simply come unglued at red traffic lights, please do something else.

3. I really like my job. There are few other jobs I care to be paid to do. They make better hobbies. If you can make better bucks not flying, and
fly for fun, then do that. But don't belittle pilots by saying they can't do
anything else. High-time pro aviators have a broad-base of skills and can
do almost any job, though they may not like it. Go find the ALPA "Pilot
Personality Description." Is that you?

Lastly, it is highly unlikely you'll end up anywhere near what you wanted.
But making the best of it is what matters. Good luck.

wakeupcall
22nd Jun 2009, 19:58
Thank you very much for your opinions. I truly appreciate them.

Note: I did not say I want to be a pilot because of money (clearly...it is not possible). I just want to do what I love, have a loving family in the future, and at least live comfortably (middle to upper middle class..). It is the last point that I worry about. I have concerns about the future of this profession.

And yeah... Every time I see a boeing/airbus in the sky, I have always wondered what it is like to control one :). But, it is hard to gauge how long my excitement can last. (it is like... you know a girl that you thought you could love forever... but after a few years.. you start to question your choice.) That is why I am seeking advices from the previous generation.

SIC
23rd Jun 2009, 01:19
it is like... you know a girl that you thought you could love forever... but after a few years.. you start to question your choice

You are very close to the truth there - except that eventually you realize that you are delusional and you are the girl ( a working girl ) and the airline is the one using you without much love ( or renumeration ) in the relationship.

iceman50
23rd Jun 2009, 02:12
The very fact you are asking these questions means that flying is not for you!

Sounds more like wanting to fly for the supposed "kudos" and money rather than really "wanting" to fly. Go do something else as you will not cope with all the stress and checking that you would have to go through in a flying career.

Flying Bagel
23rd Jun 2009, 02:47
To be honest, I hardly find this career as stressful as some of the other ones I've been in. Everything is relative, methinks...

FOCX
23rd Jun 2009, 05:04
Sorry KAG, I wasn't meaning to come across so literally and I didn't think you meant it they way either. However, I still don't think the oil situation is going to have an extreme effect on aviation, they are already looking at blends to replace avtur and 20 yrs is a long time to research that. Plus I think it's likely if availability did become an issue aviation would likely have priority use compared to other industries which wouldn't have the same sort of fuel replacement issues. Would there be some effect, sure, but just as likely to have no more effect than the intro of wide bodies, world economy problems etc. How it affects you, like always, will depend on when you entered the industry. Wakeupcall would be damn close to command, so it might slow it down, but no different to any other event that could have the same impact on his flying career or any other number of careers.

Boeing and Airbus have a lot at stake when it comes to aviation and will do whatever is needed to limit any impact on aircraft sales and therefor their share prices. Both companies have substantial clout within their political arenas, while tourism has a large economical impact throughout the world.

No, I'm not smart enough to work out an accurate impact on a piloting career, that's just the point, no one can as you'd need to define the extent of the problem to do so which is unknown! Just like you couldn't work out the impact on a lot of careers that would be similarly affected, but I can have an educated guess, which is all any of us can do.

The head of BP was recently quoted as stating that the demand of oil was falling and would continue to do so for some time. Anything can happen.

sisyphos
23rd Jun 2009, 07:15
I find it hilarious that some guys really think they get away with " flying is not about money, it is a passion, bla bla bla". I don't buy a single word of what you are saying. If that would be true you wouldn't be in CX or/and in Hong Kong. There is not a single soul in Hong Hong that isn't in it for the money, and that includes the locals. Our conditions of service deteriorate constantly, time to command now 15+ years,the money gets worse and worse, and you don't care ??
What a joke.

And by the way, doctors DO care about the money, or why do you think there are western docs in Dubai, Rhyad or Hong Kong ? Because of the better climate, ey?

iceman50
23rd Jun 2009, 08:14
SISYPHOS

We are NOT all like you my friend. Money was definitely not the reason I wanted to fly, it was also NOT the reason for coming to HK. Speak for yourself with your comments.:ugh::rolleyes:

GEN X are we?

betpump5
23rd Jun 2009, 08:52
Sisyphos,

If you look at how hard doctors work, the years of studying and the constant assessments, if they wanted money then for that same amount of hard work, dedication and studying, it would be better for them to do an MBA and be earning shed loads more than being a doctor.

The reason why, taking your example, they move is because they can earn more money doing something they are already doing! Now that is a completely different concept to training for a career in the first place because "of the money".

Just because I was a pilot earning so-so $ in the Philippines, should I just have stayed there flying 732s? No I moved to a larger airline flying bigger pieces of kit, more responsibility and more money that inevitably comes with a legacy carrier.

But I never started out in the business for the money. My experience about the "rewards" of flying was my dad being made redundant 3 times, hardly ever seeing him, and divorced parents.

Lining up a 744 and calling out EPR set is better than sex.

Liam Gallagher
23rd Jun 2009, 09:58
"Lining up a 744 and calling out EPR set is better than sex".

If that is true, I think you may be doing one or both incorrectly..... the call is "Thrust Set":E

sisyphos
23rd Jun 2009, 10:02
"Lining up a 744 and calling out EPR set is better than sex."

betpump, I bet your wife thinks that too!:}

sisyphos
23rd Jun 2009, 10:08
Well, and regarding those gentlemen who don't care about the money, just are still thrilled by sitting on their (fat) bottoms for hours and hours and call "check" once in a while, no problem, I am happy for you. Enjoy it while it last, but don't complain when you eventually end up with a bus drivers salary and three-men crew to New York etc etc, hey, you are still flying, that's great, who needs money anyway.:rolleyes:

But if my sons would ask me if I would recommend this job I would say no.

Kelly Hopper
23rd Jun 2009, 11:12
Shouldn't it be the wife calling "set thrust?"

iceman50
23rd Jun 2009, 15:21
sisyphos

You are at it again, you might have a fat arse not all of us do! We are not all as bitter and twisted as you some of us just make the best of what we have - life is too short are you a glass half empty man?:yuk:

Guava Tree
24th Jun 2009, 03:36
“Shouldn't it be the wife calling "set thrust?"

No, in this case, obviously, the wife should be replaced by a much more nubile girlfriend.

the reo
24th Jun 2009, 04:20
Love of flying.
hate to be contrary but you could love flying and hate an airline job.
They are almost contrary in their descriptions

PEETEESIX
24th Jun 2009, 05:18
If we had more people in aviation that weren't in it for the passion etc.... Then perhaps managment wouldn't have us over a barrel. Every bloody time!

betpump5
24th Jun 2009, 10:04
I don't have a wife.

Maybe I'm doing something wrong! Sisyphos, put a sock in it.

sisyphos
24th Jun 2009, 17:43
maybe you shouldn't consider the 5 minute thrust limit when with the ladies then ??:}

o.k., I'll stop. peace. :ok:

Guava Tree
25th Jun 2009, 04:00
Betpump 5:
Whatever things you may or may not be doing wrong, not having a wife is not one of them.

The Reo:
Please expand on your post #43
(Love of flying. hate to be contrary but you could love flying and hate an airline job. They are almost contrary in their descriptions)
There appears to be a great deal of well thought out wisdom in your post. Please elucidate.

Alistair
25th Jun 2009, 04:25
A bit of threadcreep here, sorry Wakeup, but you may want to do some research on this issue too as it will impact on your career.

FOCX, I still don't think the oil situation is going to have an extreme effect on aviation You may want to spend some time, as will anyone considering a career in aviation, and educate yourself on what might happen in the near future or even in 3 or 4 decades time.

Briefly, from comments in your post: fuel blends will not solve this problem, aviation will not be a priority industry when it comes to the last of the worlds oil reserves (feeding a percentage of 8 or 9 billion people might squeeze in before a trip to New York), Boeing/Airbus/ "the tourist industry" will not be able to influence the result of increased oil prices through scarcity by political or scientific (read the next best thing) means and always remember that oil companies can be less than accurate in their statements, particularly when it comes to the world's reserves of oil and gas, which is only an educated guess anyway. (Demand might be down at present, but have a look at how much we are using today and compare it to even 7 years ago. eg 1991 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 66,632 and 2008 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 84,455 (source: BP statistical review of world energy full report 2009)).

The information is out there if you are prepared to find it. For example have a look at BP's own statistical data wrt world consumption etc here http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2009_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2009.xls

In that data they say that our current R/P ratio (Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.) is 42.0 years. That is, all the worlds known reserves (which is a best optimistic guess anyway) gone in 42 years time if production rates remain the same as they are currently, taken from the industries own figures. That takes no account of increased demand or production or the fact that as the reserves diminish the stuff is going to be harder to get.
Currently existing fields worldwide are declining at approximately 4.5% per year. This means each year the world has to bring on line the equivalent of another Nigeria plus another Indonesia, just to keep production flat from here Oil Consumption: How Does Today Compare to 1980? -- Seeking Alpha (http://seekingalpha.com/article/79668-oil-consumption-how-does-today-compare-to-1980) also puts things in perspective.

KAG
25th Jun 2009, 09:43
Alistair, I agree with you.
If a young guy in his twenties wants to have a smooth career, he shouldn' t choose the airline pilot path. It is too uncertain. There is the economy, the fuel... Nothing to compare with a doctor career for exemple.
For somebody really motivated, who is ready to fly a C210 in Africa if there is no more job, fine.
But for somebody seeking a flawless and rewarding airline pilot career... No. Too many risks. We don' t even know which airline will still opperate in 30 years.

Just before the recession the fuel was at 147$, we already forgot? Yes it was speculation, sure. Still, it is because the incertainty of the fuel reserve worldwide, that people speculate.
What will happen to the fuel price as soon as the economy will recover? Who can say the fuel won' t reach 200 $, or even much more, within few years?

This recession made us forget what we were all thinking about last year: at what price the fuel baril will still increase?

I you wanted a really interesting and rewarding airline pilot career, you are one century late.

Lowkoon
26th Jun 2009, 07:47
Or invest the massive amount cash you are going to have to spend to get your licence and a few endorsements, and put that same amount in oil investments, and paraglide off your wallet for fun. :}

eli_deli
27th Jun 2009, 13:29
someone said in these times to be a pilot you need to be a genius and beat hundreds of people to get a job, but that's person could be just you no ? Don't listen to stupid negative comments. Keep a positive, perserverant and a rigorous attitude and you'll become whatever you want.

Oil is also the most stupid argument I've heard to dissuade someone becoming a pilot, come on man, a crap like GM got all the help to survive, you think they will let the aviation industry crash by itself without any intervention? just because there is no more oil ? You think that this world is limited to oil! Things are going fast and you don't what's coming up.

The aviation industry is cyclic and sometimes things are well and sometimes bad, who know maybe a pilot career could be something very promising in the next years.

In every job today you should be flexible and adapt yourself to upcoming conditions, we call this capitalism. If you're a rigid person, then you still living in the Ford era where there is no place for this kind of people in our time.

Determination will take you far....

To the grammar/syntax police, please don't waste your time.

Thanks and good luck to all.:ok:

the reo
28th Jun 2009, 15:07
Guava tree

Its very hard to expand without sounding bitter and getting flames running in a stack of people.

The simple version
Airline flying has very little hands on flying. If the flying you love is all about going to different cities on night stops then it will rock your boat.

If the flying you love is about the hands and feet, meandering a bit on your way because something looked interesting over there. Then be cautious of airline flying. Many from times past kept this by recreational flying going when not at work. However I suggest that the wage (worldwide) is not keeping up with inflation and I don't find many of the younger generation with the cash to afford this recreational flying on the side.

The monotony of an airline job can send you nuts at times. Yes the view of a sunset and sunrise is fantastic and you won't see it in the office.
However any newcomer needs to be aware of the constant fatigue, night shift, shorter and shorter layovers and the increasing number of hours flown per month that this industry is accepting.

KAG
28th Jun 2009, 17:10
they will let the aviation industry crash by itself without any intervention?

What will they do? And "they" this is who?

hongkongfooey
29th Jun 2009, 01:02
I look up at they sky and wonder what it would be like to control an airbus

Wakeupcall, I've been flying Airbus for 3 years ( not S/O ) and have often wondered the same thing :}

I am with Sisyphos, to a certain extent, how many expats would be here if they could earn the same money back home, other than those who just wan't to experience living in another part of the world ( although I find it hard to believe they would want to do it long term ). I find it difficult to fathom that people would actually volunteer to breathe in this pollution and live in an over crowded city, away from home, long term, if they could be in their home country earning the same coin.
But I guess not everyone lucky enough to call Oz home.

If so many expats keen to just be living in HK, why do CX/KA pay 2-3 times more than most other carriers ? Oh thats right, they're just nice people :ouch:

broadband circuit
29th Jun 2009, 04:09
why do CX/KA pay 2-3 times more than most other carriers ?

How the hell did you come to the 2-3 times figure??? My income is nowhere near 2 times other carriers.

Talk to our Aussie based crews, apparently some (most/all??) are being paid less than their QF equivalent.

SIC
29th Jun 2009, 05:41
That is true. CX now pays less than most major airlines to people on bases in that country.
Add this to the very long time to command in future and its only a shadow of what it used to be. Only way to do it is be in HKG and be lucky/skilled in making some $$ out of the housing.
For a local guy with no housing - not a great deal.....

hongkongfooey
29th Jun 2009, 06:40
BC, was'nt talking about guys on a base,thats why I made the point about living here in HK, but do carry on like a pork chop anyway.

I agree based guys in Oz are on slightly less than their QF counterparts, tho.

pill
29th Jun 2009, 22:11
Fooey, the reality of "slightly less than QF" these days is sadly closer to "sh!t loads" less. A nine year based fo with cx gets the same money (comparing group certificates) as a seven year so (thats right second officer) with qf on the 400. The qf guy gets a bid line roster system and works 10 to 12 days a month. The cx guy gets given a roster each month (the last six months, opening it has been more like steping in a dog turd than anything else) of which all he can request with any certainty is one block of days off and requires 15 to 17 days of work a month. Those guys live on a different planet. If it wasn't for mortages and seniority (don't get me started on how little use that is to a cx guy), I'd go and join them on it.

hongkongfooey
30th Jun 2009, 10:11
Pill, I take your point and I guess if sitting in the jumpseat for 9 years floats your boat ( as it seems to with a few QF guys ) then go for it I say. But if that perpetual jumpseat rider decides to go to one of the control seats, then he will be pretty close to a CX based guy ( ie a pay cut ). The thing is the QF guy does'nt have the option to come to HK earn a truck load of money and pay F all tax.
And don't talk to me about rosters, SLS induced rosters seem to be akin to someone sticking a dog turd directly up your nose, but for the moment I'll take the money.

SMOC
30th Jun 2009, 12:11
The thing is the QF guy does'nt have the option to come to HK earn a truck load of money and pay F all tax.

With comments like this no wonder CX keeps trying to cut our COS :ugh:

hongkongfooey
1st Jul 2009, 07:04
Sorry SMOC, did'nt realise it was a big secret, I am sure management have no idea that they pay an expat F/O more tham nost airlines pay their Captains :rolleyes:

SMOC
1st Jul 2009, 11:48
Really? Please quote some (Legacy) airlines that pay their Capt less than our F/Os?

the reo
1st Jul 2009, 23:31
I agree SMOC. I can't think of one.

jed_thrust
1st Jul 2009, 23:57
I can: ours!

I bet my annual pay that there are Captains whose Group Certificate will show less income than some of our FOs.

B/C/ASL based Captains vs HKG-based Senior FOs.

And before we launch into a diatribe about this, that and the other, the simple fact is that this discrepancy DOES exist.

treboryelk
3rd Jul 2009, 01:38
A scale F/O's may get more but that is a hangover from a long time ago....not sure that there is a captain anywhere in the system getting less salary than a B scale F/O!

Is this a trap
10th Jul 2009, 08:03
I had my CPP interview.

I told them that as a SO, I would expect to earn around 33k HKD per month.

Then, CX asked, “What would you do if your co-worker is performing the same tasks, but is earning twice as much as you?”

I said, “I should not complain if I am doing something I love. Etc etc…”


After the interview, I was quite disturbed by that question. :ugh:

Was CX just testing out my “passion for flying”?
Or, is this really what will happen if I am hired as a SO? (though, I do not think my chance is high)

Why did CX even ask that question? :confused: What do you think?


Would many of you here choose to be a pilot again as your career?

Loiter1
11th Jul 2009, 15:40
Nope. If I could do it all again I would make some money doing something else, have fun flying on the weekend and maybe not look forward to 20 years of industrial relations related stress.

jabbejokker
11th Jul 2009, 21:14
"I do it for the love of flying"

Bull****!

You thought you were going to get paid and treated right and now all you have left is this piss-excuse to prevent yourself from jumping out the window!
F15's are fun, Cubs are fun but cruising in a Airbus for 6 hours is as interesting as staring out the window on a rainy day!

"The sunsets are nice"

But they are nicer if seen from the beach with a beer and a pretty girl. Also sunrises pale in comparison to seeing a smile on your childs face when your HOME.


It's time to take it back, get paid and tell the truth to all those kids with a shiny jet in their eyes.

Virtual Reality
12th Jul 2009, 05:57
Really? Please quote some (Legacy) airlines that pay their Capt less than our F/Os?


SQ B777 Capt -

Basic pay - SGD 12000/mth = Approx HKD 60000/mth

SQ B744 Capt -

Basic pay - SGD15000/mth = Approx HKD 75000/mth


Emirates probably pays the same or slightly higher but certainly less than Year 1 CX Capt (pax).

If we include another HKD 60000/mth housing allowance, then Year 3 CX's SO will probably gets more than an SQ Capt.

cpahka
12th Jul 2009, 06:52
CX also pay relatively good allowance for kids education !