Amelia Earhart PNG Theory

[S.E.A.L.11]

Just wondering if David Billings has managed to get enough money together to start a search for the famous missing aircraft of Amelia Earhart on the island of New Britain in PNG.

Saw a doco on the National Geographic channel and his theory wasn't mentioned as a possible scenario. Anyone have his website / any info regarding his search?

[2 Dogs]

AIRCRAFT SEARCH PROJECT IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA: Amelia Earhart Articles: Wings Over Kansas (http://www.wingsoverkansas.com/earhart/article.asp?id=850)

[David Billings]

Seal 11 & 2 Dogs.....

I was up in Port Morbid when this jumped onto pprune and a mate has just sent me the url, so here's the response......

I'm still looking ! 15 years on and we have not come across one scrap of metal in the jungle which we could say was part of the Electra.

The big problem is getting the Americans to take off their fogged glasses and study the evidence and come up with the dough for the required Magnetometer Survey. Strange thing was when I contacted CILHI in Hawaii, the C.O. of the Recovery Unit got back to me through a third party who was Australian (the guy had a diving outfit on the NSW coast and he had done some work for the U.S. Navy). The offer was that the U.S. Army would fund it but I was to walk away when it was found. So the U.S. Army know all about it but I am still hampered by that condition which I will not agree to.

I am convinced after 12 trips and some $120,000 down the gurgler that the wreck is buried. It is an expensive place to get to and requires two chopper lifts to get the team and equipment in. Last time we went by boat, which was interesting, if somewhat more dangerous than a single engined chopper.

There are landslips in the area and the loggers have been into parts of the search area and left a terrible mess which the torrential rain dumps off the edge of the ridge.

The evidence is excellent both in documentary form and the verbal descriptions from the surviving Vets. There were four in 1994. Only two of them left now.

I have had an agent in L.A. scouring for money for two years and it is looking brighter but the GFC is causing some delay. First it was the Iraq War that stopped the funding, then Afghanistan and now the GFC.


There is a picture of the map edge with the "600H/P S3H1 C/N1055" under "Pictures" and this is our main evidence. The story makes interesting reading and takes about an hour to read through.

Anyone have any questions, pm me or mail me at the address on the website (preferred).

Regards,

David Billings

[C-change]

Maybe Dick Smith might come to the party or generate some interest in finding the wreckage !!

[smiling monkey]

That website was quite an interesting read. David, do you have the lat-long coordinates of where you think the wreckage is? Just trying to get a rough idea of the area you're referring to.

[Chimbu chuckles]

Clearly Mr Billings doesn't believe she crashed in the Marshall Islands, was rescued by the Japanese, lived in Japan until after the war and returned to the US to live out her days, under an assumed identity, finally dying in 1980s.

About Beyond 37' (http://www.irene-amelia.com/id70.html)

A Basic Comparison Of The Eyes (http://www.irene-amelia.com/id71.html)

"Monsignor James Francis Kelley of Rumson, a retired priest and close friend of Mrs. Bolam's, didn't want to comment on her possible dual identity. "I could not state my feelings," said Mrs. Bolam's confessor. "Doing so would violate everything I learned in the confessional." 1982 Woodbridge New Jersey News Tribune.

Based on their correspondence and information he eventually did convey, there is no doubt Monsignor Kelley and Irene-Amelia developed a deep mutual respect for each other over the course of their long friendship. For not only was he her confessor, but he described how he also served as her post U. S. return therapist. (Monsignor Kelley held Doctorates in Psychology and Philosophy.)

Five years after 'not stating his feelings' about it, in July of 1987 upon the completion of his autobiography in which he claimed to have included a chapter about his friend, Amelia in it... Monsignor Kelley finally decided to disclose to news reporter, Dean Magley who he had previously acquainted, the basic framework of the true Irene-Amelia story. Magley, with his Wife Carol accompanying him traveled to New Jersey from Michigan to conduct an in-person interview with the Monsignor at his Rumson, New Jersey mansion home. The retired Monsignor disclosed many things to Magley about his long friendship with Amelia (Irene-Amelia) following World War Two. Soon Magley started writing a book about it. [Note: Magley would also follow up on a conversation he had with the now late Astronaut, Wally Schirra in the 1970s. Schirra had intimated to Magley, that not only was Amelia still living in the United States in the 1970s, but he had even recently 'seen' her. A few years after Irene-Amelia died, Magley managed to interview the famous Astronaut on film. During said interview he further queried Schirra on the matter. Magley asked Schirra how he came to know what he did, and on camera Schirra replied how "reliable people" had conveyed to him the true identity of the woman he had previously referenced to Magley.] Sadly, Dean Magley died of cancer within a short time after his final 1989 correspondences with Monsignor Kelley, never completing his ms. Yet Magley's writings about Kelley's words to him and his Schirra filmed interview still remain, and are highly worth noting. (*See further NASA mention below.) Add to this as well, the following end to a conversation excerpted from a remarkable 1991 taped interview with none other than Monsignor James Francis Kelley, conducted by the now late USAF Colonel Rollin C. Reineck, (Ret.) (Also note the complete 1991 follow-up tape recorded conversation at the bottom of this page that took place between Col. Reineck and Monsignor Kelley's Sister, Gertrude Kelley Hession who was a past good friend and traveling companion of Irene-Amelia's.)


Rollin Reineck: Specifically, I want to know about Amelia Earhart. Did you bring her home from Japan?

Monsignor Kelley: Yes, I was instrumental in getting her freed and she stayed here. I have some of her things here. I'm certain it's in my book. I did write a book, and I'm positive I did put in a chapter about her.

RR: I understand you were President of Seton Hall (University.)
Kelley: Yes, I was President of Seton Hall for many years.

RR: If I were to come back and talk to you would I be able to see some of the things you have of Amelia Earhart's?
Kelley: Absolutely. Surely.

RR: We believe Jackie Cochran was sent to Japan to help bring Amelia home. Are you aware of that?

Kelley: Yes, I was involved with that.

RR: Could you give me your address?

Kelley: (Provides his Rumson, New Jersey address.)

RR: I'm going to try to come back to talk to you.

Kelley: All Right.

RR: Thank you for your help.

Kelley: What city are you in?

RR: Honolulu, Hawaii

Kelley: Oh my gosh, and you're going to come over here?

RR: Yes sir. If you Have things of hers I would like to see them. Are you aware that she was Irene Bolam?

Kelley: What?

RR: Amelia Earhart was Irene Bolam?

Kelley: That's right, yes.

(*)Note from the paragraphs preceding the Kelley-Reineck conversation: The following excerpts come from a 1993 story written about Irene-Amelia (AKA Irene Craigmile Bolam) by Mrs. John Bolam, her survived sister in-law: "She was intelligent, articulate, and had a commanding presence. She knew a lot of important people including many high-ranking military officers, astronauts and flyers." [Colonel Reineck's book as well, references Irene Bolam being awarded a medal of appreciation by NASA in the early 1960s.][The late Arizona Senator, Barry Goldwater was also a past friend of Irene-Amelia's.] "Guy and Irene knew people all around the world, some of which were well known figures in high places." "She appeared to be completely familiar with any subject we might bring up about flying in the old days, such as types of planes, instruments, early airports, etcetera." "After Guy died, she still continued to manage Radio Luxembourg accounts while trekking around the world." [Irene-Amelia actually took over as corporate President of Radio Luxembourg following Guy's 1970 passing.] "She thoroughly enjoyed life, people, events, theater, travel, new heights. She was the epitome of a "'Classy Lady.'" "Irene told us she was a member of the 99s and the Zonta's, but others say her name does not appear in the records of either organization. Why then would they ask her to speak at their national and international meetings?" (Note: It was later learned how from the mid-late 1940s on as 'Irene Craigmile,' Irene-Amelia was listed in the Long Island chapter of Zonta records, and at times she appeared in Zonta published photographs.)

It was also described in this same article, how according to what his own brother, John somehow came to either know or believe, Guy Bolam had been "a member of British MI6."

Note: Amelia Earhart co-founded the 99s Women's Flying Organization in 1929 and was its first President. Amelia had also joined the Boston chapter of the Zonta's in 1928, but after moving to New York in 1931 she mostly participated, when she could, in Zonta functions held there. Today, Zonta still annually presents its prestigeous Amelia Earhart Scholarship award to aspiring female college students.

The 1982 Woodbridge New Jersey News Tribune series also described Irene Craigmile (Irene-Amelia) as a Long Island Chapter Zonta member, although not prior to 1945. It also inferred her mulit-lingual ability to have enabled her position for Zonta as an International Relations Chair Person. (Recall as Amelia she already spoke several languages.) Regardless of this, and though they were asked the Zonta organization itself would not volunteer any records about Irene Craigmile's past membership. There does exist however, numerous Zonta pamphlets still in public circulation with her photo and name appearing from the late 1940s on. On the other hand, there does not appear to be any record of an Irene Craigmile, Heller, or Bolam ever having been a member of the 99s. Such would make sense, where within a month of the original Irene Craigmile having earned her pilot's license in late May of 1933, she realized herself to be pregnant out-of-wedlock with her last flight instructor, Al Heller's child. There exists no record of her ever piloting a plane after that. Indeed, the original Irene Craigmile appeared to have no more than twenty-odd hours of solo flying time in 1933, and that's all she ever had according to record, before she eloped to marry Al Heller that same August.


"(Peter) Busatti (who had known Mrs. Bolam for many years) said he accompanied Mrs. Bolam to the Wings Club in New York City on one occasion. He said a full length portrait of Amelia Earhart hangs in the room dedicated in her honor. "'It was a dead ringer for Irene,'" he said. "'Sometimes I thought she was, sometimes I thought she wasn't.'" "'I told her she looked like Amelia Earhart and she said, 'No, I don't look like her.'" Busatti said. At a Wings Club event in Washington, Busatti mentioned all the admirals and generals seemed to know her." 1982 Woodbridge New Jersey, News Tribune.

"After her death, [Irene-Amelia's] rumors resurfaced that she was in fact Amelia Earhart, the famous aviatrix who disappeared on a flight between Lae New Guinea and Howland Island in the south Pacific on July 2, 1937. Mrs. Bolam's son, Clarence Heller then requested Mrs. Bolam's fingerprints from the medical school [Rutgers University, College of Medicine and Dentistry] to settle the Amelia Earhart question. The request was deinied. Heller's wife, Joan, said her husband, Mrs. Bolam's only child, sent a registered letter to the medical school requesting the fingerprints, but the request was denied. She said medical school officials told her that Mrs. Bolam's body had been disguised in some manner so that only one or two people in the school knew which was her body. She said she spoke to Norma Davenport, attorney for the school, and was told that an agreement that Mrs. Bolam signed with the school precluded the release of her fingerprints. "'We're not entitled to them,'" Mrs. Heller said she was told. "'They won't tell me anything except that her identity has been switched." She further said Mrs. Davenport refused to give her a copy of the agreement between the school and Mrs. Bolam or to tell her what the agreement specified." 1982 Woodbridge New Jersey News Tribune.


"Dr. Man Wah Cheung of Roosevelt Hospital, who treated Mrs. Bolam for two years, said he remained "'puzzled,'" even after her death, about whether she might have been the missing aviatrix." Dr. Cheung's puzzlement is shared by his assistant, Rose Mulligan. "'Who knows,'" she asked, adding "'I never met anyone like her.'" 1982 Woodbridge New Jersey News Tribune.

Nothing evidenced this fact more than the later 2002 discovery of photo forgeries used within the series, that combined the images of more than one woman to represent a single identified human being. The forged photos were used in a series ending display, and were meant to depict the life long birth to death images of the person known as 'Irene Craigmile Bolam.' Indeed, they were engaged as the chief instrument used to try and finally convince the public, how Irene-Amelia could not have ever been the former Amelia Earhart. For twenty years said forgeries went undetected. This might also remind one of the old addage: 'Sometimes the best way to hide something valuable, is to place it in full view as if it isn't really that valuable.' Think about it: For two weeks in October of 1982, great lengths were gone to by the Woodbridge New Jersey News Tribune, in order to outright lure its readers into considering the notion of the woman whose true identity had been the subject of high scrutiny over the course of the previous twelve years, and who had just died a few months earlier, how she possibly had been the survived, former Amelia Earhart. Then on the last day of the series, the paper suddenly demonstrated its own almost magic capability, to soundly conclude how the woman in question could not have been the former Amelia Earhart after all, by deferring to photographs that at times sloppily combined plural human being images in order to forge one human being's image. So much was done in order to persuade its readers into believing a false truth, that there was never a mystery at all pertaining to the woman in question. Now it can be said with certainty, the series was nothing more than an outright scam, or a lie, that had been highly conceived and orchestrated with a sole end goal in mind. And such a goal was: To outright trick its readers into accepting a false truth. Or, to accept a historical truth that was not a real historical truth... at all.

As mentioned above, on 11/2/91 the now late Colonel Rollin C. Reineck, USAF (retired) recorded his 'Monsignor Kelley' follow-up conversation with the Monsignor's Sister, Gertrude Kelley Hession. The following is the complete transcription of said conversation, with Col. Reineck's own introduction and a few 'explanatory notes' added by Beyond 37':

"The following is a transcript of a taped telephone conversation I (Reineck) had with Gertrude Hession on 2 November 1991. Gertrude was the younger Sister of Monsignor James Francis Kelley. This event took place after I had met with the Monsignor in 1991. A few of the words spoken by Gertrude were hard to understand, otherwise I believe I have interpreted all words correctly:"

ROLLIN C. REINECK: We had it on good authority from other people that the Monsignor did take care of Amelia Earhart when she came back to the U. S. and I wanted to confirm that with you.

GERTRUDE KELLEY HESSION: Now that I couldn't confirm. Why I say that is that I was not in the area at that time. My husband had been transferred with the parent company. I wasn't living in the area so I don't know what really happened. I can say -- he may have. He does many things that we don't know of. As far as that is concerned I couldn't say yes.

ROLLIN: I see. You don't know whether he did or not. Is that what you're telling me?

GERTRUDE: I don't know.

ROLLIN: I talked to someone in St. Croix who knew Mnsgr Kelley. His name is DeKoster. Do you know him?

GERTRUDE: Are they from New Jersey?

ROLLIN: No, they have a home in St Croix. (U.S. Virgin Islands)

GERTRUDE: No. I don't know them. I know the De Kosters from New Jersey.

ROLLIN: They may have a home there too. [Note: The DeKosters were quite wealthy, Donald DeKoster, a long time good friend of Monsignor Kelley’s was a prosperous Detroit auto industry executive.] Anyway they have a house right near the Monsignor’s house in St. Croix.

GERTRUDE: I don't think I've met them.

ROLLIN: They told me that at one time you and Amelia Earhart were to come to visit, but that one of you got sick and couldn't make it.

GERTRUDE: Well now, I'll tell you. I have visited there with Irene Bolam. And, you know who Irene Bolam is?

ROLLIN: Right, yes.

GERTRUDE: Yes, are you acquainted with the name?

ROLLIN: Yes of course.

GERTRUDE: Now, Irene and I had visited out at St. Croix. Irene Bolam and I took several trips together. But actually, I did not know Irene as a child - as a young person - to be able to give you a good background. I know of her family, The doctor O'Crowley and her aunt, but actually, I didn't know too much about her. I met her when her husband died, Bolam was ill with appendicitis. That was when I really knew her intimately. She never discussed much about Amelia Earhart. I don't know if..., that she ever denied it out-rightly to me – you know – that she had no real connection there. But, oh, I had my doubts many times. She had a yacht in Red Bank. As did the Erwins. I don't know if you know them. They had a yacht up there in Red Bank. Irene had her boat there and we used to go out on it. She would always discuss planes coming over. Pulling down maps, pinpointing all these different areas. It made you wonder you know. But I don't know how helpful I can be to you. I wish I could be more.

ROLLIN: You said something a second ago. You said she never denied being Amelia Earhart.

GERTRUDE: Oh, not in my company.

ROLLIN: Did she ever affirm it at all.

GERTRUDE: She. Oh, the only time I recall her making a denial was at the time of her death. There was a memorial service. There was a memorial service for her down where she lived you know. She had a party for all of her friends. She had pre-arranged this affair. And, it was a memorial party. And, some of those people down around Rossmoor could give you a much better explanation about her. She did have a folder made up, pre-advance.

ROLLIN: I have a copy.

GERTRUDE: Oh, then you know where she says "If you believe this."

ROLLIN: Do you know Diana Dawes?

GERTRUDE: Oh yes, she was one of her closest friends I would say.

ROLLIN: When we were back visiting the Monsignor, (Gertrude’s Brother) we visited Diana the next day.

GERTRUDE: Oh Yes, She [Diana Dawes] was about one of her closest friends I would say. More intimate than I. Although, we took all those wonderful trips together. She used to get very upset with people coming up and wanting her to admit – you know – that she was Amelia Earhart.

[Note: Ms. Dawes was left many of Irene’s personal belongings after Irene died in 1982, to include the photographs of the Irenes used in the study, to also include the ones appearing in this website. Plus, the “pre-advance” folder Irene had made for her 1982 Memorial Dinner featured the ‘other’ Irene Bolam on its cover, a person Joe Gervais never met before. Diana Dawes, before she passed away in the late 1990s held to her opinion of highly suspecting the Irene Craigmile Bolam she knew to have been the former Amelia Earhart.]

ROLLIN: What was your personal opinion.

GERTRUDE: Right.

ROLLIN: Your personal opinion was that she was or was not?

GERTRUDE: You know when they were writing the book, Amelia Earhart Lives. That was a very trying time for her. I can recall people coming up. There was a judge. I can't remember his name. [Judge Edward Kennedy.] Anyway he was helping her control those people. I think one was Gervais and the other one.

ROLLIN: Klaas, Joe Gervais and Joe Klaas.

GERTRUDE: Right. Oh you know, that was very disturbing and the judge was handling it. She sued. I sat in on some of the depositions with her. I think she --- didn't she win that suit?

ROLLIN: No. She sued Mc Graw Hill, Joe Klaas and Joe Gervais for two million dollars. She kept asking for a postponement. Finally, [Gervais] agreed to pay her the two million dollars if she would come to court and give her fingerprints in front of the judge.

GERTRUDE: Oh no, that's something she would never do.

ROLLIN: No. She wouldn't do that, so she dropped the suit [against Gervais and Klaas] after that.

GERTRUDE: I think we lost touch about then, but I know that things were very trying for her. (NOTE: This is a contradicting statement made by Gertrude. The lawsuit ended in early 1976, and it was known how at least until 1979 Gertrude continued to occasionally see and even travel at times with Irene.)

ROLLIN: Why wouldn't she give her fingerprints?

GERTRUDE: Why? She didn't want people to prove she was or wasn't - apparently. And even her own son does not have her fingerprints.

ROLLIN: I'm not sure that is her son.

GERTRUDE: Irene was married three times.

ROLLIN: I have her marriage certificate and it says that when she married Bolam, it was her second marriage.

GERTRUDE: Oh really.

ROLLIN: I asked you a minute ago, do you think she was or was not Amelia Earhart.

GERTRUDE: I was very dubious, because there were so many times she would slip, you know with comments and make you feel, you know, and yet, I never really wanted to probe. I felt she could tell me if she wanted to tell me. It was that type of friendship. But there were many times when it was difficult not to go after her and say come on, sit down and tell me. But, we just never quite did. She had a friend by the name of Mary (Eubank) who would have known her as a class mate at the academy of the Boswell Sisters and St. Dominic's academy. She was sent there by her grand parents. She would have known her as a high school person. To me she was the closest one. Then she had two aunts who lived up around the shore line. [The O’Crowley Sisters Edna Madaline O’Crowley Horsford and Attorney Irene Mary Rutherford O’Crowley.] (Attorney Irene) O'Crowley was one. They were two sisters. It was always a very sensitive thing with Irene (Craigmile Bolam.) She would get very disturbed about it when people would come up to her in front of her son you know, at the Flyers Group, Wings Club, or something like that, she would get very upset.

ROLLIN: When I was talking to another lady, her name was Helen Barber, who also knew the Monsignor in St. Croix. She told me that when Amelia Earhart came back and the Monsignor was giving her spiritual and psychological care as well, he tried to get her to keep her name, but she didn't want to – according to the story – because she said she was embarrassed for what she had done.

[Note: Such a statement is questionable. Col. Reineck appeared to be reading something into the story that wasn’t necessarily there. According to Donald DeKoster, in 1979 Monsignor Kelley mentioned to him how Irene decided she “didn’t want to be the famous Amelia Earhart any more,” alluding to her strong desire to continue living her life after the WWII years as a private person in the U. S., as opposed to a highly famous ‘public’ person. Her post-war confidence, the respect she commanded from others, her continued love for Japan, the orient, and the United States…, as well as her overall positive attitude measure never suggested she was embarrassed about anything from her past. Rather, she may have found it to hard to explain what she had somewhat inadvertently become involved with during the war years, after realizing herself to be a somewhat subjugated victim of inordinate circumstances.]

GERTRUDE: Oh really, I don't know, I've never heard that. But my brother got to know her quite well. After all, she would have confessed to him, ah, especially when she was ill at the hospital. We went to visit her on numerous occasions, and that was a very secret deal too. When she was in the hospital, she had this oriental doctor and his name was kept quiet always as to her relationship with people and what not. And that's when she died at that hospital. I do know my brother visited her because I took him there several times as he was her confessor. What she told him, I don't know. I don't know how you could get it from him. I wish you well with this.

ROLLIN: Let me give you my name and address; etc.

GERTRUDE: I gather from what you said that you thought she may have been Amelia Earhart.

ROLLIN: Yes

GERTRUDE: Yes, there were times, yes, I must admit that. If I had been really curious. But, I think I valued our friendship more.

ROLLIN: That's what Diana Dawes said. She said that although she was almost positive, she never asked because it would have upset her and she would lose her friendship. ….I won't take up any more of your time. Thank you very much. You've been a real help. Thank you Gertrude.

(They sign off.)

Note: It is fairly certain Mary Eubamk and the original Irene Craigmile were past good friends, and Mary Eubank was likely introduced to the original Irene’s famous family friend, Amelia Earhart at some point either in the late 1920s or early to mid 1930s. Accordingly, in 1949, the same year records show Viola Gentry and Jackie Cochran corresponding with each other, Jackie Cochran’s own stowed records index indicates at least one letter exchange between Jackie and one 'Mary Eubank.' When Tod Swindell discussed Mary Eubank with the original Irene’s Son, Larry Heller in person in 2006, Mr. Heller appeared reluctant to discuss the subject of Mary Eubank, the woman who was known to at times have cared for him as he grew up. He also refused to verify the spelling of her last name. When asked if it was spelled ‘Eubank’ or ‘Eubanks’ he replied he “couldn’t remember.” Yet it would seem he had to have been aware it was ‘Eubank.’

Beyond 37' holds copies of all audio tape recordings of conversations that took place between Colonel Reineck and Monsignor Kelley, Reineck and DeKoster, Reineck and Mrs. Helen Barber of Wayne, Pennsylvania (who as mentioned also knew Monsignor Kelley well and was told many things by Kelley about his past relationship with Irene Craigmle Bolam,) and between Colonel Reineck and Gertrude Kelley Hession. Beyond 37' also holds a copy of Dean Magley's 1985 filmed interview with now late NASA Astronaut, Wally Schirra.

Note: Edited for brevity.

[OZBUSDRIVER]

Note: Edited for brevity.:}:}

Thanks for thinking of us, Chuck:ok:

[YSMB]

There is just one thing missing in the story for me: the motive. Why would they bother to go to such lengths to switch identities, indeed what would have been her motive to do or go along with that? Seems uncharacteristic of such an achiever.

[chimbu warrior]

I have been interested in this mystery for over 30 years, and whilst I have not devoted the time or resources to it that people such as Mr Billings or Elgen Long have, I have read lots of books on different theories regarding what became of AE.

Almost without exception, these books (there must be about 75, of which I have read perhaps a third) contain quite strong evidence supporting the particular theory that the book is based on. These include -

AE crashed on Gardner Island (now known as Nikumororo) in the Phoenix group
AE crashed near Saipan and was executed by the Japanese
AE was taken to Fiji and died there


Whatever her fate, people will continue to wonder until either positively identified wreckage of her Electra, or DNA-matched remains resolve the mystery.

I do consider the New Britain site to be a credible possibility, and I certainly hope Mr Billings does find a suitable benefactor to fund the expedition.

[David Billings]

C-change:

I tried Dick Smith about five years ago but he was too busy making jam. I don't know whether I actually got to him but I did get a response showing no interest, whoever it was from.

Smiling Monkey:

The search area is inland from Wide Bay at the southern end of the east coast of the Gazelle Peninsular. It's in that narrow neck of land 35 kms wide. In WWII the Australian Army drew the Bomb Line across there and anything that moved east of the bomb line drew some whistling things that come out of the air.

Chimbu:

The Bolam Theory has been proved to be hogwash. Bolam was known in a bank in NYC during WWII. The Catholic priest, Father James Francis Kelley was in dementia. Colonel Rollin Reineck who was a Navigator on B-29's at the end of WWII was passionate about the Bolam Theory and would never listen to the proof. His book has it that Earhart intended flying from Lae to Ni'hau Island at the western end of the Hawaiian chain (where there are no landing grounds) to sit it out for three weeks and then make a dramatic re-appearance.

Chimbu, I hope that you put that on pprune "tongue in cheek" !

While I'm here, a few words about the other theory that Earhart ended up on Nikumaroro Island (formerly Gardner Island) in the Phoenix Group..... The Theory is that Earhart reached a sunline through Howland Island but was south of Howland and flew down the line heading south until she reached Nikumaroro. Some bones found in 1940 started this one off....... ....think 1937, no navaids, zilch.

The theory has four flaws:

1. Noonan had to know his position in order to navigate from that known position to Gardner Island. He had to know where he was in Longitude and Latitude in order to steer a course to the island. It would be no good saying, "just steer SSE and we should hit something....."..... The theory depends on the Electra being on a sunline which cuts through Howland Island but there is absolutely no evidence that they "actually" were at that sunline. The 1912GMT radio call "We must be on you but cannot see you..." only says that Earhart "thought" they were at Howland or very close to it (even in a lateral sense). In "thinking" they were there, that is not good enough. This points to a lack of true navigation. In other words, they were "unsure" of their position, ie: "Lost". To sum up, if Noonan was completely sure of his position in order to Navigate to Gardner, then "why" did he not say, "I know where I am, steer XXX degrees for Howland...", there would have been no need to go to Gardner.

2. If they took a stab (a chance) at finding "an" island to the South of their position, they are quite literally "INSANE". The Pacific is so large that they would have gone down literally "anywhere". Neither Earhart or Noonan were insane.

3. Earhart had stated to Gene Vidal, when asked what she would do if she could not find Howland: "I will turn back for the Gilbert Islands, find a place to put it down on the land, find a beach, or ditch close to shore." In the first attempt she made in March 1937, the plan had been to leave Hawaii with 900 USG of fuel and fly to Howland Island, a distance of 1900 miles. Her contingency was the same..."the Gilberts". Now, that means that 900 USG was enough for the 1900 miles HAWAII-HOWLAND plus another 600 miles, HOW-GILBERTS. That means 2500 miles on 900 USG. For the LAE-HOW flight she carried 1100 USG which then, was enough for 2556 + 600 miles = 3156 miles, at "Cruise" power. Why would she then, at the last minute, unsure of her position, change her mind and head for Gardner when she was unsure of her position, instead of heading for the North-South spread of the Gilberts which extends for some 500 miles and is difficult to miss ? You cannot navigate from an "unknown" position to another "known" position, you have no means of navigating. Heading for the Gilberts would in certainty gaurantee a landfall.

4. The Hypothesis is on shaky ground in the fourth instance because it dismisses the fact that 11 Crewmen died in the wrecking of the S.S. Norwich City, a steamer plying on a Northern route across the Pacific which struck the reef edge and lodged there in 1928. Eleven crew died trying to reach shore in the shark-infested sea. Some were washed up on the beach and buried in shallow (coral) graves by the survivors. Bones found in 1940, undoubtedly came from these poor souls. Also, during WWII, some 30-odd US Navy men were based there at a LORAN station. Discarded bits and pieces from that Loran station litter the island.

I hope that I have given some more to think over. I did puit the website in my mail yesterday but a mod must have removed it. it's the usual prefix and suffix for a website with "electranewbritain" in the middle.

I'm off to PX at Port Morbid for a week tomorrow so if there are any questions or whatnot, just pm me or email me (email preferred) at the address on the website and I'll answer them, that's if the Gate WiFi is working !

Regards

Dave Billings

NOTE: Website is now: www.earhartsearchpng.com

[David Billings]

Chimbu:

Dave's the name Mate....

I didn't know there were that many books ! There can be a thousand books all espousing their theory as far as I'm concerned but none of them have any documentary evidence that what they say is true.

When I stood at the fax machine at PX in 1994 and a reduced copy of the map came through showing "600H/P S3H1 C/N1055", what was left of my hair stood on end. The map is genuine and had been kept by a Veteran from the same unit that carried out the patrol for 48 years. He handed it to the Veteran who first saw the engine on the jungle floor and that veteran picked off the tape covering the writing (which is in indelible pencil). He did that so as to have the "whole" map photocopied for me as I was scheduled to meet with him in Perth W.A.

I had a problem with the 600H.P. at first as the engine was rated at 550 in all the books but with 100 Octane it did produce 600 for Take-off. Tying the metal tag removed off the engine mount with the letters and number on the map edge is also a problem as we do not have the tag. The ex-W.O. said to me in 1995, "The tag had letters and numbers on it which didn't mean anything to me....but I handed it in with the patrol report".

What we had then was the words of the Vets when they were at Tol plantation when an Officer approached them witha piece of paper in his hand and told them the U.S. Army were not interested because they said, "It's not one of ours".... The date on the map is five weeks after the find of the wreck and it would take that long for the U.S. Army to get back to them. There is the annotation "Ref:" before the "600 H/P S3H1 C/N 1055" so whoever wrote the words on the edge of the map stated that the string of letters and numbers was a "Reference" and I deduce that the reference came from the signal that the Officer was reading out to the men.

We know that the Tag was given to their Brigade HQ because there is a signal in the AWM that states, "The patrol report will be available at 0900 Hrs together with a/c plates". Plates ? Maybe more than one tag or plate was removed, but the Vets have no knowledge of a second tag or plate

There you are, a little bit more to think about.

Regards,

Dave Billings.

[Merlins Magic]

Some interesting details at this address including a partial image of the map clearly showing the message.

Aerospaceweb.org | Ask Us - Amelia Earhart Disappearance (http://www.aerospaceweb.org/question/conspiracy/q0299.shtml)

David, do you have a more detailed picture of this map?

[CaptainMidnight]

What interesting reading ........ fascinating stuff.

Dick Smith - where are you?

[David Billings]

Merlins Magic:

Yes I have a full colour copy of the map but I am not about to display it publicly. Suffice to say that marking on it indicating where the patrol went are straight lines and it doesn't work that way in that jungle in East New Britain.

They thought that they had reached a point further then they actually did get by the end of the second day. So for the first few ground searches we were in the wrong area. After twelve visits I know exactly how far you can get in a days' searching over the differing types of terrain, which is mostly steep stuff but there are some nearly level bits.

My belief now is that I have got the area down to a couple of square kilometres but I do believe it is buried. It has been 72 years.....

Regards,

Dave Billings

[David Billings]

Captain Midnight:

Read post No.10 concerning Dick Smith.

Really, I am a bit wary about Dick anyway, he has a tendency (so I believe) to march in and take over and that would not wash with me.
I like his energy when he does get going but holding him down while we got everything into place would be the question.

As I say, the response I got was in the negative, so that's it.

All it would take, as I said to a Northwest 747 Captain about four years ago is: "If all the pilots on Northwest put 100 dollars each in we'd have it licked..." but that drew no response. Northwest were the first customer for the Lockheed Model 10 Electra.

Worldwide, if all pilots put $1.00 in we'd have the dough, that's how silly it is.

Regards,

Dave Billings

[Torres]

I'm curious..........

"During Earhart and Noonan's approach to Howland Island the Itasca received strong and clear voice transmissions from Earhart identifying as KHAQQ but she apparently was unable to hear voice transmissions from the ship. At 7:42 a.m. Earhart radioed "We must be on you, but cannot see you -- but gas is running low. Have been unable to reach you by radio. We are flying at 1,000 feet." Her 7:58 a.m. transmission said she couldn't hear the Itasca and asked them to send voice signals so she could try to take a radio bearing (this transmission was reported by the Itasca as the loudest possible signal, indicating Earhart and Noonan were in the immediate area). They couldn't send voice at the frequency she asked for, so Morse code signals were sent instead. Earhart acknowledged receiving these but said she was unable to determine their direction.

In her last known transmission at 8:43 a.m. Earhart broadcast "We are on the line 157 337. We will repeat this message. We will repeat this on 6210 kilocycles. Wait." However, a few moments later she was back on the same frequency (3105 kHz) with a transmission which was logged as a "questionable": "We are running on line north and south." Earhart's transmissions seemed to indicate she and Noonan believed they had reached Howland's charted position, which was incorrect by about five nautical miles (10 km).

3 Mhz AM voice transmissions during day time in the tropics would not have much range, so they must have been relatively close to the Itasca?

If Earhart was low on fuel at or near Howland Island, how did they have enough fuel to return to New Britain?

Have you been able to verify that PW1340-S3H1 Ser No 1055 was indeed an engine installed in Earhart's Lockhart L-10E?

[David Billings]

Torres et al:

There were several radio calls heard from Earhart and only one of them can be said to have indicated an "actual" position. As we know AE & FN left Lae at 0000GMT 2nd July. Note, I work in Statute miles as did Earhart.

I do not believe the Electra went direct, LAE-HOW because of a radio call heard by Lae at 0518GMT which gave the Lat/Long of 7 d 3' S, 157d 0 E.
If you read "The Chater Report" on the www. made by Eric Chater of Guinea Airways, this call is recorded as 150.7 E, which if correct it means the Electra has only covered 249 Miles in the 5.3 hours. So it cannot be correct and the more sensible Longitude is 157 E. You say it to yourself over and over again and you can then understand how Harry Balfour recorded it at 150.7.

150-7, 150-7, 150.7...157. That is 686 Miles after 5.3 hours (05:18)which is a more reasonable Groundspeed but still not accurate because we do not know that she was over Mount Maetambe on Choiseul Island at the particular time. "18 Minutes" past the hour was one of her stated broadcast times. The time/distance delivers 129 mph G/S average for the sector.

Why go by way of Choiseul Island ? There was a reported tropical storm south of the Eastern end of New Britain.

From Choiseul they would then head north-east for Nukumanu Island, which they had to see before dark for a positive fix. The sector is 224 miles. Nukumanu is on the direct line LAE-HOW and the dogleg only adds 31 miles.

Harry Balfour in Lae heard her in the area of Nukumanu Island which is 873 Miles from Lae in a direct line calling at 0718 but the position given is about 20 miles West of the Island. They have now covered 910 miles.
I have worked out that Noonan was assuming the wind at 12mph Easterly but Earhart reported a wind of 23 mph buit did not give a direction. As we know, in July , the trade winds are Easterly. That higher abeam wind would have blown them slightly west of the atoll.

She then climbs to Cruise level and was heard agian at 0800GMT by Lae "on course for Howland". Mary Lovell's book says at 12,000 feet, others say 10,000. There was a reason for going to 12,000 so I accept that.

At 1030GMT she calls, "Ship in sight ahead", recorded by Nauru Radio.
There was a US Coastguard vessle at the half way point named the USCG Ontario. It could not communicate with AE or she with it for it only had LF radio. It was 1278 miles from Lae.

The timing is right for the ship to be the Ontario and she has covered 1309 miles in 10.5 hours which delivers a G/S of 124mph average LAE-ONT sector. By this time she should have been doing 138 mph, so she is down on G/S. Note that the average G/S has dropped off since leaving Choiseul whereas it should have increased due to fuel burn off. This would indicate a wind increasing in strength.

The USCG Ontario recorded a surface wind of 20 Knots from 083 degrees at the time she would have been going over. That's a direct headwind. So up at 10K or 12K wherever she was it would have been more. From extensive playing around with times, distances, etc, in a MS Excel programme I made which shifts points and distance and takes into account winds, I do believe that the upper wind was at 35 mph Easterly. I cannot get her to the Ontario at that time of 1030GMT without that value wind.

To cut a long story short I believe they were 250-300 miles from Howland Island when they turned back.

Fuel at turnback I have calculated to be about 300 USG.

The evidence of how she "could have got back to New Britain" rests on pages 36 and 37 of her own book "Last Flight" wherein it says:

"Daylight comes at last. The stars fade. We are throttled down to 120 indicated airspeed so not to arrive in darkness. We are burning less than 20 gals. gas at 10000 ft. We have tuned on Makapu. Keep it 10 degrees to starboard bow is the order".

This excerpt is from her first attempt at a World Flight when she flew from Oakland to Wheeler Field on Hawaii. They were making too much G/S and would have arrived in the dark, so she slowed it down.

There are those who say this is 20 USG "per engine" but the Cruise power setting for 10,000 feet at the same stage of a trip is 38 USGPH so 40USGPH would be a Cruise + setting, ie; it would not slow the ship down. Why these people cannot accept Earhart's own words is beyond me.

So if she had 240USG left she can endure for 12 hours and on the way back she has the TAS + the Tailwind. She can get back to ENB.

Torres, the Serial No. is not of the engine. The serial number is the airframe.... Earhart's Electra was the 55th Model 10 built, hence it had the Construction Number 1055 (C/N1055). Her engines were Serial No's 6149 and 6150.

Regards,

Dave Billings

[ForkTailedDrKiller]

Worldwide, if all pilots put $1.00 in we'd have the dough, that's how silly it is

What a horrendous waste of money that would be!

They paid the ultimate price for one too many shortcuts. Aviation has a history of extracting that toll!

Either her radio gear had failed, and there is evidence an antenna fell off her plane as it departed New Guinea, or she did not understand how to operate the plane's direction finding antenna, which was a very new technology

If she had it, she should have taken the time to learn how to use it.

The Itasca crew also reported that Earhart changed frequencies often making it difficult for her to receive the ship's replies

Poor planning or execution?


the ship requested she switch to more powerful Morse code better suited to direction finding. Unknown to the cutter, Earhart had the Morse radio and its antennas removed from the Electra during its repair since she disliked using the equipment and neither she nor Noonan could read Morse code.


Just plain stupid!


The first and most accepted theory is that Earhart ditched the Electra at sea in the vicinity of Howland Island. If so, the aircraft most likely sank within minutes. The aviators may have been able to escape, but it is believed they had left behind any rafts or other emergency gear to save weight.


More stupid!

Dr :8

[David Billings]

Fork Tailed disposer of Dr's:

All of the above except one.

While ever the mystery exists, people will wonder what happened. We know they took the risk and paid for it with their lives, that's called a failed exploration. Did every thing work well on Apollo 13 ? Or the space shuttle that blew up ?

Earhart lost her Rx, yes. She removed the Trailing aerial, yes. She didn't want to know Morse, yes. Noonan did know some Morse and had stood in for W.Ops on PAA. When you think about it, they knew their Tx's were heard and it would have been simple to set up a Tx on HF and an Rx in morse on 500 Kcs using the HF aerial.

There is no evidence about the loss of an aerial at Lae though. I have tried to squeeze it out of the gentleman who started that one about "old timers at Lae said she left some aerial wire on the strip..." Reportedly said to "a" U.S. serviceman at Lae during WWII. Who was the U.S. serviceman at Lae during WWII ? No reply. Who were the old timers at Lae pre-WWII, no answer. I think any civilians left at Lae when the honourable gentlemen from the north arrived were taken to Rabaul and from there their fate would have been the Montevideo Maru.

So we continue to wonder and we continue to look.

Regards,

Dave Billings

[Chimbu chuckles]

Dave I didn't post tongue in cheek because I find Admiral Chester Nimitz's and Wally Shirra's words compelling. They, at least, believed she had not died near Howland Is in 1937. The pictures of 'Irene' in 1966 compared to earlier AE pictures are interesting too.

I am perplexed though that Beyond 37 makes no mention of Noonan's fate nor does it seek to explain how AE, if she had deliberately sought to 'drop out', managed to convince FN to go along with it.

What is the truth behind the AE commemorative stamp issue - you would think copies would be available still and examples posted on the Beyond 37 website?

Why would she try for Lae when Rabaul makes much more sense? New Ireland is a pretty reasonable aiming point for DR. I first heard the ENB crash site story when based in Rabaul and could never work out why she would head for Lae.

The US Govt spares absolutely no expense looking for the mortal remains of its serviceman from WW2, Korea and Vietnam. I flew the Graves Reg guys from Hawaii around more than a few times in PNG in the 80s/90s and they are a dedicated bunch - one of their Officers said to me once, "We have a blank cheque - no budget constraints".

If you have a piece of paper with her airframe serial number on it I would have thought they would crawl over broken glass to put a team in from Graves Registration.

Personally I think the most likely scenario is they ended up in the water somewhere - but stranger things than the Emelia/Irene scenario have been known to happen.

Certainly your assumptions posted above are interesting too - Good luck with it.:ok:

[David Billings]

Chimbu:

Don't know where you get the idea she would head for Lae. She had spent near four days at Lae and had spoken to Guinea Airways people. What do pilot's always say to one another when they know that someone is going soemwhere for the first time ? "If you get into trouble duck into ......... there's a small airstrip there", or words to that effect. She would head for Rabaul, no question if she got into trouble on the way out. Two airstrips there, Lakunai and Vunakanau. Vuna had just opened. She didn't use Rabaul because Tavurvur was erupting (as it still is today).

The Nimitz story came from words he said to Fred Goerner, a Columbia Broadcaster who worked in SFO. Georner did some interesting research and he was part of the Saipan Theory but just before he died he refuted the notion. You would think wouldn't you that if Earhart had been held by the Japanese in Weishien Camp in China or even in the Emperor's Palace or was brought back by Monsignor James Francis Kelley or held on Saipan that ALL the HUNDREDS of people (including Japanese Vets still alive) who would have been in the know would have spoken out by now. The idea is prepostorous and I am not saying that because of what we have, I am saying it because I find it totally ridiculous. There are more conspiracy theories surrounding Earhart than there were fleas on my dog.

Kelley's taped Conversation with Reineck I have. I play it to myself when I need cheering up. It could form a basis for a new comedy show if it was not so tragic. An old man, in dementia, gets fed leading questions by another old man intent on digging out of the party of the first part the information that he had Earhart at his home at Rumson NJ. How could anybody think that after Japan had been defeated that the Emperor would still have Earhart locked up in the palace ? He had the power of a 5 watt lamp. Since when did Eisenhower leave the troops behind in Japan and why would the Emperor hold Eamon De Valera the "emperor" of Ireland ? You didn't put those bits on pprune did you Chuckles ?

Back to Fred Goerner: Goerner saw a message in a USN file which puzzled him. He saw a message in there which had originated from Nauru Radio that they had heard a radio call, "Land in sight ahead.." on 6210Kcs and which had been timed at (in the book) 1030am Local on board the USCG Itasca. Georner writes (to the effect): "...so nearly two hours after the supposedly last transmission heard by Itasca at 0844am Local, Nauru hears "Land in sight ahead" on AE's frequency". Goerner wrote that in the first edition of his book "The Search for Amelia Earhart" but left it out of the second edition because by then he had grasped the Saipan Theory and the call didn't fit with it.

So what have we got there, if AE Tx'd "Land in sight ahead" at 1030 am Local on the Itasca ? What we have is a call at 2200GMT, one and three-quarters of an hour "after" the supposedly last call at 2014GMT (0844am Local at the Itasca).

Where would the land be ? Well, we have the report that she was heard in the darkness of the early hours on Tabiteuea Island in The Gilberts.....going overhead. No time given. Tabiteueans didn't wear wristwatches then but that is he wrong time of day... that would be heading "East"...

How far can the Electra travel in 1.75 hours at Cruise ? I say 300 miles.
If she set the power to give her magic 150mph G/S in nil wind conditiond and leaves it there, the now tailwind will give her a boost. She is light also. I am saying she could make 175 mph G/S. 1.75 x 175 = 305 miles. On approaching Howland, Earhart would be steering 068 degrees M according to Clarence Williams strip maps. The wind was from around 082 on the way out at the Ontario, so if anything, with the overcast conditions that she radioed and no ASTRO, the Electra is going to be blown north of track. If the wind is as high as my research is showing, then she is going to be short of Howland and she is not going to know "how far" short.

Remember, she could not get a "minimum" on the DF...too far a range perhaps ?

It makes logical sense to say that if she turned back and was seeing land at 2200GMT, then she was seeing Tabiteuae or Nonouti Atoll. By this time she has 240 USG left, maybe a bit more.

What would you do, if you knew that your aircraft at 10,000 feet could use as little as 20 USGPH and still achieve 120 mph IAS ?
What about going a little higher, how much would it use then ?
What kind of a TAS would it have there and what would it achieve if it has 15, 20 mph of wind blowing up the back ?

There is a little known fact that Earhart did fly the Electra at 12,000 feet in the U.S., so she would know what it could do at that altitude.

Three radio calls were heard by Nauru Radio at 6:31pm, 6:43pm and 6:54pm (Rabaul Local time) on 6210kcs and at that time, Nauru reception on HF is within range of an aircraft approaching Rabaul from the East. The words were unintelligible. Who would be in the air at that time anywhere in the Pacific within radio range of Nauru ?

I leave you with this thought also. Last year in Port Morbid, I was introduced to a Mortlock Islander who had stated to a friend of mine (in a discussion about the need for an airstrip out there), that his grandfather had told him of an aircraft flying over the Mortlocks well before the time of the "Big Fight". What aircraft would that be that could fly a 660 mile round trip from Rabaul (nearest airstrip) out over the Mortlocks and return before WWII ?

Running out of time here, got to pack for "Paradise".......

Regards,

Dave Billings.

[David Billings]

Torres:

Sorry Torres, I didn't answer your query about Earhart's statement "fuel is running low" and therefore how would she have enough to get back to ENB.... (?)

That statement was made by AE while she was searching for Howland and I interpret that as being "fuel is running low to be able to keep on searching". In other words she had to stop looking at a certain level of fuel which she required to use to get back to the Gilbert's, ie "Contingency Fuel" and I firmly believe that figure was a level of 300 USG

From a previous post I made you will have read that she always stipulated "The Gilberts" as her backdoor contingency and she had said that to Gene Vidal whose voice tapes "saying that very thing" are in the University of Wisconsin where they were found by researcher Ron Bright.

So, she had "trip fuel" to get to Howland, plus she had "search fuel" to look for Howland plus she had "contingency fuel" to get to the Gilberts all rolled into the 1100USG she carried out of Lae. Remember that amount is supposed to give, at CRUISE power mind you, at least 3165 miles. I am saying at turnback she had covered around 2256 to 2306 miles from Lae or she was at about 1890 to 1940 miles from Rabaul.

She had to have enough for 600 miles back to the Gilberts and then some, in order to be able to find the best place to put the thing down so in a worst case down low she would gulp 60 USG per hour, so four hours at Cruise to give 150 mph G/S needs 240 USG and then another hour to have a good look for the best place is 300 USG and that's how I arrive at that.

I discussed earlier the return for one and three-quarter hours at Cruise and climbing up again to say 8,000 and using 38 USGPH then by the time she sees (as I say) Nonouti Atoll she has used 65 USG leaving approx 235 USG. She is now 1590 miles from Rabaul.

At this stage, I would have liked to have been a fly on the cockpit wall because she has a BIG decision to make.... put it down on Tabiteuea or Nonouti and possibly wait weeks for someone to come and get her. Keep going to Ocean Island but she knows there is nowhere to put it down there. What about Nauru, no airstrip there either. Nukumanu, well, we can get there but we may have to ditch in the lagoon.

Economise, get high, use the power setting for the OAK-HNL flight when they slowed the Electra down, it will take time but they will get there, and be closer to civilisation and they may even get to Rabaul, they have at least 11 hours endurance.

If I have 150 G/S at the low power setting and I use 20 USGPH at 10,000 feet or slightly less at 12,000 feet and I have 235 USG left and 15 is unusable fuel, I can run for 11 hours and cover 1575 miles. Planning to fuel exhaustion is not everyone's cup of tea but as you can see from those figures she could just about make it.

What would you do ?

Regards,

Dave Billings

[Barkly1992]

David

What an absolutely fantastic story. I wish you success.
:ok:

[David Billings]

Barkly:

Yes, it certainly is.............

Port Morbid looms, PX, The Gateway, The Dero, The Roundhouse (for Chinese), maybe the Airways and a Sunday drink at the Bluff Inn.... I've promised myself a quick trip over to Madang on one of these excursions.....aaah Paradise !

Back in a week,

Dave Billings

[Chimbu chuckles]

Can't fault your logic Dave - except if she was flying at 10-12k how did she CFIT on ENB - fuel exhaustion is the only thing that occurs to me?

If she was DRing her way back to Rabaul in the dark wouldn't she have been transmitting on HF near constantly, as fuel ran out, thus someone would surely have heard something?

Accept what you say re the old Priest and his sister.

What are your thoughts on the striking resemblance between 'Irene' and Amelia, both physical and aircraft knowledge/personal contacts/languages spoken etc?

Is it just pure BS that 'Irene' existed and looked so much like AE that so many close personal friends wondered?

Those pictures, if not pure fabrication, are pretty compelling too...don't you think?

Wally Shirra has always struck me as a sane, thoughtful individual and he apparently believed she was alive into the 80s?

What about the Marshall Islands commemorative stamps issue in the 70s - Pure BS?

As to Jap soldiers etc remaining schtum post WW2 - I don't find that the least bit surprising. If she was held/chose to remain in Japan how many lower ranked Japs that may have had contact with her actually survived the war even if they knew who she was?

As to why someone like her would do such a 'strange' thing - well what about Howard Hughes, Lindberg and Neil Armstrong? Great people are sometimes flawed and do things that seem VERY strange to everyone else.

Eamon De Vallera?:confused:

[David Billings]

Chimbu Chuckles:

Can't fault your logic Dave - except if she was flying at 10-12k how did she CFIT on ENB - fuel exhaustion is the only thing that occurs to me?

Correct, but it would not be controlled flight. Electra runs out of gas. See, you are thinking CFIT and you are not thinking to fuel exhaustion. I know it is difficult to do, I'm an ex-Flight Engineer but you have to put yourself in the cockpit, in 1937. It was "more" out of control than CFIT. It may have broken up in the air at the aft end as the Lieutenant cannot recall a Tail Section. As the hole in the canopy was small in comparison to a 59 foot wingspan aircraft and there had been some regrowth, obviously it went in steep. The props could not be feathered and on the Electra engines out of gas would hunt between coarse and fine as the oil pressure built up in a windmilling action and then dropped off as they slowed down on reaching coarse. It does not bear thinking about what would happen when they went out of synch. while they were fluctuating "Coarse"-"Fine"-"Coarse" and back again. Putting the pitch levers into "Fine" would be the only recourse but the drag from the windmilling would be enormous. I'd be surprised if it hasn't thrown a prop..... To maintain airspeed the nose would have to be shoved down.

If she was DRing her way back to Rabaul in the dark wouldn't she have been transmitting on HF near constantly, as fuel ran out, thus someone would surely have heard something?

Well, yes, you would think so. But you're not Earhart and her radio procedures were not quite ATC standard... as you've read. You have to say, she wasn't hearing anyone so she might have considered what was the point ?

Accept what you say re the old Priest and his sister.

It's only the old Monsignor and not his Sister Gertrude, she's no problem, she was sane, he wasn't sane in his dotage. Did you know about the flight in a P-51 that he said he had done ? What about Clark Gable trying out the first ejection seat in the U.S from a P-61 ? How about him shaving Earhart's bonce to check for microchips ? You obviously do not have the tape recording of the conversation between Rockin' Rollin Reineck and the Monsignor, you have an edited transcript....not the same. The tape opens up a whole new world on both of them, I assure you.

What are your thoughts on the striking resemblance between 'Irene' and Amelia, both physical and aircraft knowledge/personal contacts/languages spoken etc?

The photographs put out by a wannabee Film Producer based in Las Vegas and "paid for" by Rollin Reineck have been examined closely by a few people who are specialists in the field of "cranium identification" (I'm smiling here....) They have been found to not resemble several features of Earharts, wrinkles, blemishes, eye shape, mouth turn down at the corners etc, etc, etc. The guy that morphed Earhart into Bolam is a guy name Tod Swindell and the name sorta fits....if you get my drift. Personally, I think Irene Bolam "basked" in the sunshine of Earhart's fame to a certain extent and developed a sense of "presence". She was able to widely travel after she won the courtcase against McGraw-Hill books as below.....

Is it just pure BS that 'Irene' existed and looked so much like AE that so many close personal friends wondered?

Going on the evidence that she did work in a Bank in NYC during WWII and based on other little bits of information I would say "yes" it was BS. I blame the two "Yo-Yo's" for the Bolam nonsense, that is: Joe Gervais and Joe Klaas. Gervais has passed away but he did know the truth before he departed but never admitted it. It's PRIDE you know, catches us all out at some stage of our lives but with Gervais it was also mingled with a bit of arrogance in that he was respected by many as a genuine AE researcher and he didn't want to lose that. "Face" some call it. He was a USAF Command Pilot before they asked him to DCM (it is alleged). Klaas is a journalist and with Gervais, wrote an awful book called "Amelia Earhart Lives" which has so many mistakes in it the letters drop through the holes in the pages...... Klaas is a former "Eagle Squadron" member who flew a Spitfire in the Battle of Britain. He was a POW in a Stalag Luft in Deutchsland. I owe him that but not much else for he has muddied the waters (gleefully I might add) for years. Bolam sued McGraw-Hill over the book and the two "Yo-Yo's" stood in the dock wearing brown trousers.....just in case ! She won and was paid a considerable sum which allowed her to live the life she wanted.

Those pictures, if not pure fabrication, are pretty compelling too...don't you think?

No I do not.

Wally Shirra has always struck me as a sane, thoughtful individual and he apparently believed she was alive into the 80s?

That's his opinion.

What about the Marshall Islands commemorative stamps issue in the 70s - Pure BS?

Impoverished islands will do anything to raise capital, even if it is from stamp collectors.... Look at Nauru and the passport fiasco....

As to Jap soldiers etc remaining schtum post WW2 - I don't find that the least bit surprising. If she was held/chose to remain in Japan how many lower ranked Japs that may have had contact with her actually survived the war even if they knew who she was?

May they Schtik (Dutch word) if they do know and won't speak out. In any case, she wasn't there.

As to why someone like her would do such a 'strange' thing - well what about Howard Hughes, Lindberg and Neil Armstrong? Great people are sometimes flawed and do things that seem VERY strange to everyone else.

Howard Hughes had more problems than my dogs fleas. If you'd have been living with Ava Gardner and she walked, wouldn't you be traumatised (?), I know I would. And what about being soooh close to Jane Russell, I mean it would drive you nuts wouldn't it designing bras to keep them under wraps ! THEN he had all those money problems... and PanAm and all ze wimmen....better to lie low and let the Mormons look after it all....

Earhart loved her Mother, she was probably a little ambivalent about George but her family was all-important to her and she would not disappear like that. All these romantic and outlandish tales are what people dream up.

She tried to fly around the world, she failed. As a last ditch effort she tried to save the aircraft, herself and Noonan, she came close but she failed. End of Story.

Eamon De Vallera?http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/confused.gif

Now I know for sure that you do not have the Audio of the Kelley-Reineck conversation..... There is a passage at the start where the Monsignor is saying that he went to see the Emperor....in Jappan... (bear with me, this is from memory): NOTE: You have to read this in a shaky voice.....

"....he was their king, watyamacallit...their God....The Emperor.... He said he would let Brigadier Keane go and .....he would let Amelia go.... It was the time when Eisenhower left all the troops over there...."

At this point Reineck says: "Yuh-yuh-yuh-yuh mean MacEisenhower....or MacArthur...."

"Yes, Mac, Mac, Mac-MacArthur was it, I dunno, whatever, anyway, I brought out Amelia and this guy Eamonn De Valera... he was the 'er Emperor of Ireland...."

"This house at Rumson was built by Queen Victoria and for three years I assisted in the execution...er...the administartion of London....her daughters all stayed here...."

"I went to meet The Spirit of San Louee (French pronunciation) at Paris, he'd planned to go to Ireland but ended up in Paris and the Cardinal asked me to go as there was no one there to meet him...."

There were thousands at Paris to meet Lindberg........ and so it goes on.
Chuckles if you believe all that now, you will not believe it when you hear the audio.

email me with your address and when I get back I'll send you the audio (if I can).

Regards,

Dave Billings

[A37575]

Having flown the Nauru to Tarawa and Tarawa to Fiji route many times in the Eighties, as well as Tarawa to Christmas Island on a couple of occasions and wondered about the missing Electra, it was clear that much of the time in good weather that the shadows under the thousands of small fluffy cumulus clouds that cover the Pacific ocean in those latitudes, make it almost impossible to identify a small atoll from a cloud shadow. The cloud shadow comes out as a tiny dark smudge on the ocean.

It wouldn't take much of a navigational error of a few miles to miss a planned destination with those small clouds just above the ocean. My guess is tops 3000 and base 1500 ft and lower in heavy rain showers. Throw in fatigue from flying all night and hand flying then you would be lucky to be able to maintain a compass heading of plus or minus 5-10 degrees on an average. Toss in gyroscopic precession and trying to synchronise a directional gyro every 15 minutes or so with a wavering magnetic compass then it would be easy to be 50 miles off track in a 1000 miles. Even if they got within 25 miles from Howland Island I doubt if the atoll would be seen if surrounded by those fluffy little white Cu..

[David Billings]

A37575:

Precisely.

I have written in the website, that trans-Pacific pilots have been telling me exactly what you say since I started enquiring about the Wx out there in 1994. The few PX pilots that have done the ferry jobs from the West coast of the USA have been particularly helpful.

The other thing that should not be forgotten is that in those days Navigators could never tell you "where you are", they could only tell you "where you had been" due to the lag in running the numbers. Noonan also had a habit of only doing a shot every two to three hours and a lot can change in that time.

On her flight, night flying started at around 0730GMT and persisted until she was past the Gilberts until about 1800GMT,over ten hours of darkness.

Throw in all you say about Pacific Wx and combine it with Earhart's radio Tx's of "cloudy and overcast" which started at 1415GMT and you can imagine that Noonan with his experience would probably be mouthing under his breath at Earhart's "press-on-itis". We don't know "how long" it had been cloudy and overcast since she had not been heard since 1030GMT but she said it again after 1415GMT so it had persisted. My plot has them still a long way out when the dawn came at Howland.

When he found the wind at Nukumanu to be 26mph, double the low-end forecast he must have wondered ."...what the hell are we getting into here" and when they were late at the USCG Ontario something should have told them to call it quits and return to Lae and wait for the dawn. The Groundspeeds should have flagged the warning.

Regards,

Dave Billings

[CaptainMidnight]

DB

You are probably right about DS - he's certainly a hands-on type of individual :)

I endorse Martin.Sacklage's suggestion re Paypal donation via your website though ........ a bit of publicity and hopefully the $$$$ will start flowing in.

[stepwilk]

Article today, maybe it was yesterday, in one of the major U. S. news media--ABC TV website, I think--about Ric Gillespie preparing to take TIGHAR back to Nikumaroru in search of AE's DNA, which apparently can be retrieved not simply from remains but from anything she might have touched or worn, assuming it is absolutely and carefully handled and not contaminated.

Good luck to him, I say, having worked with Ric for a brief while on the search for l'Oiseau Blanc in Maine, which I wrote about for Air & Space Smithsonian. Also wrote there a relatively long article about his initial Gardner Island searches...

Stephan Wilkinson

[Critical Reynolds No]

Stepwilk,
Can you advise what issues your articles appeared in please? I have every issue of A&S since about 1995.
Thanks

[stepwilk]

God, I dunno, you'll have to do some kind of search. I had the cover story ("Biplanes") in the very first issue of A&S and wrote for them steadily for the next 20 years or so. Dozens and dozens of articles.

If it's supercritical and you can't find it just by Googling my name or whatever kind of search A&S will allow, I'll crawl into the attic and retrieve my clip files. Lemme know, but crawling into the attic is harder than crawling into the Internet...

[J5pipercubfan]

After reviewing the various posts here, a few corrections about the Amelia Earhart disappearance case are needed. For one, notwithstanding what people think or say, it does appear the White House per an admission by FDR Cabinet member Morgenthau in May of 1938, withheld certain information about Earhart and Noonan's final disposition. Also, no matter what people feel, say, believe... whatever, and no matter how authoritative a person might sound, the simple truth is after forty years of debate the Earhart issue, where the three persons historically identified as one in the same Irene Craigmile (to include the 1945-1982 identified one who became 'Bolam' by marriage in 1958) has NEVER been resolved. National Geographic tabled it as 'Unsolved History' by virtue of its program title. Yet even National Geo admits they only presented the case in brevity, and their MO is to always approach the Amelia Earhart case as a 'historically unresolved topic.' So much being understood, be it known no one has ever forensically disproved the equation of Amelia Earhart surving and changing her name to one of three historically identified Irene Craigmile's. Head to toe physically with handwriting & voice..., the 1945-1982 identified Irene who appears nowhere in photos identified as Irene prior to the 1940s, still, possibly was, the former Amelia Earhart. It infuriates adversarial Earhart enthusiasts to admit this to themselves and others, but facts are facts. The debate about one of the Irene's true pasts began in 1970 and it's still going strong today. However, because official history has always refused to address it (AKA 'official silence') the press has always remained stand-offish about it. One will never find a Woodward and Bernstein seriously investigating Earhart's loss. Today's national news moguls would never permit it. The Earhart mystery exists because it's supposed to exist. Official U. S. history designed it that way. It would mark an incredible revelation to advance it in any direction, ever. Tighar's recent dna claim will once again end as a false hype too. They've been advancing such a connect-the-dots story about AE for many years. Of course, the Ameircan public is gullible to believe almost anything formally presented AE mystery wise, unless it seems incredibly hard to believe.

[Chimbu chuckles]

No, Dave I accept what you say - no need to send the recording. How could I not trust you when we are both ex PX?:}

Mind you 'da bois' did make a direct and premeditated attempt on my life once in a F28 - left a set of wheel speed generators on the bench after a gear leg change:hmm:

Although perhaps you retired just before the era of gear legs snapping off F28s and wheel speed generators just not re installed, engine/apu fires etc etc...it got a bit sporting for a while there in 98/99 on the F28 fleet:ok:

Never knew that about the Electra - the non feathering props:uhoh:

Mind you SHE knew it. Very strange - so many options east of ENB. I flew up there for years before GPS came along - DRing around the SWP in Queenairs, C402s, Islanders etc - sometimes at night - hollow feeling sometimes when the only aid was an NDB which, if working at all, had a range of < 40nm and your ADF needle would MUCH rather point at any number of lightning discharges happening around the horizon. I used to think that was 'fun':ooh:

[stepwilk]

There is no such thing as "Tighar's recent DNA claim." They have "claimed" nothing. Gillespie has simply said that they will return to Nikimaroru armed with serious advice on how to retrieve DNA samples without contaminating them, and will attempt to find an object of some sort that would have been handled by its "owner" and will compare DNA thus harvested to that of an acknowledged Earhart-family descendant.

I'm sure Ric Gillespie would admit that the DNA for all he knows will turn out to match that of Judge Crater.

Hard to respect the rest of what J5 writes if he gets this so wrong.

[J5pipercubfan]

Then news wire services have it wrong. I'm just conveying what has been issued. There have been several national news blurb posts in the last couple of days about the Earhart mystery possibly being solved based on Tighar's announcement of DNA it was tracking linked to Nikumororo... that it felt might possibly match Earhart's. When a national news wire service announces such a thing, the collective Earhart novice-curious segue into a tizzy. Based on all previous reports conveyed, and numerous past Tighar press releases, one might believe since the 1980s the entire reason Tighar has been so heavily investing in and exploring its Nikumororo theory, (even 'claiming' to have solved the mystery in the early 1990s that it certainly did not do) has to do with its belief and assertion Earhart ended up there. The only reason they would press any DNA idea would be to see if it did or didn't match Earhart's, and so much is bound to arouse some innocent newsworthy curiosity. I guess that's all I'm saying.

[stepwilk]

Wrong again--you, J5, not the wire services. Gillespie thought that he might be able to retrieve DNA from objects such as a makeup-compact mirror Tighar had brought back from Nik, but he learned that it had been irretrievably contaminated during the collection process. He never claimed that it _did_ hold AE's DNA. Tighar will be going back to the island next spring to try and find objects that they can reliably have sampled for DNA.

I don't know who reported that Tighar was tracking AE's DNA--certainly not Ric--because they know it's not possible to do with the objects they have.

Why are you saying, "Then news wire services have it wrong," and then quoting "national news blurbs" that themselves have it wrong?

[Critical Reynolds No]

Stepwilk, thanks but no need to crawl into your attic. I'll search the interweb.
A&S needs an index of sorts.

[tinpis]

Wiki

There is also motion picture evidence that a belly antenna on the Electra may have snapped on takeoff (the purpose of this antenna has not been identified and radio communications seemed normal as they climbed away from Lae).[8][9]


Does anyone know what this was?


<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/IFmp26u6lJk&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/IFmp26u6lJk&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[angels one five]

The radiomen on the Coast Guard cutter Itaska reported that Amelia was coming through very loud and clear, but she did not seem to be hearing their replies.

I guess, therefore, that the missing belly aerial was for the receiver.

BTW that clip is not the take off from Lae.

There is a film in existence, though, which is of the last take off of the Earhart Electra, and recent analysis of it shows what looks like puffs of dust behind the plane as it rolled down the strip at Lae. These apparent puffs have been interpreted as the mast at the loose end of the aerial wire bouncing along the surface. The rear belly aerial mast had only a few inches of ground clearance and could have been snagged as the the plane swung around to line up.

I think there is documentary evidence from the time that a length of wire was found at Lae airport after Earhart and Noonan left. It was not merely someone's recollection.

[sundaun]

Dave, I did a bit of work on this back in 80's & 90's, and came to no particular theory.but I notated the following, which may be able to be discounted by the better informed.(a) Did the aircraft have only a single generator (LH engine) as standard equipment. (b) There is a comment in one publication "KLM Engineers rectified a generator electrical problem in Batavia" (We all know how much load keying a HF puts on a system) (c) Numerous non radio equipped Bank Line phosphate vessels plied between Ocean Is and Aust/NZ around that time window (see British Phosphate Commission archives, Melbourne) (d) Re "ship in sight ahead" Nauru residents reported hearing an aircraft, Ocean Is. residents did not, on that night. (e) F.N. had trouble hearing time signals to set his chronometers at Lae (f) A poor understanding of radio wave propagation on the flight deck (g) and lastly somebody may be able to help me here, an eclipse of the sun occured around this time and area, I bought the entire National Geographic publications (CDs) for '37/38 but no mention of it therein.I have been unable to get info from theRoyal Observatory in Hawaii.
I do have a letter from a National kiap on an island south of Bonriki stating a Lapun recalled an aiircraft flying overhead at night before WW2. If it is credible, the location is on Finchaffen-Howland rhumb line. I wish you success.

[Brian Abraham]

Video clip has "Oakland" on the hangar roof. Stumbled across this at IFR by the Sun and Stars (http://www.avweb.com/news/avtraining/IFR_bySunAndStars_200781-1.html)

From time to time, I reflect with empathy on the task that Fred Noonan had on his ill-fated flight with Amelia Earhart to Howland Island in 1937. Fred was well-experienced, having established most of the Pan Am's China Clipper seaplane routes across the Pacific. Noonan and Earhart left Lae, New Guinea, in late morning local time for the roughly 2200-mile, 20-hour flight, with a planned arrival at Howland after sunrise, about 8 a.m. local time. That gave Noonan all night for three-star navigation and a morning arrival to find the little island.

Based on Earhart's last few voice transmissions, "We are on the line 157 337 ...," Noonan was using a navigation technique called celestial landfall. Celestial landfall requires intentional off-setting the track to the left or right of the intended course, so that when the craft gets abeam the destination the navigator knows which way to turn.

The approach to Howland was quite literally the textbook reason for the landfall technique. With only a single celestial body to shoot—the Sun—Noonan had good information to determine his groundspeed but nothing for course guidance, because their true course was about 082° and the Sun's Zn was 067°. If that's not clear, think about it this way: They were flying toward the rising sun, so Noonan could calculate the distance toward the sun with good precision and know how fast they were moving along the course. Deviation north or south of the planned course, however, would be tough to calculate, as their LOP would run 157° to 337°.

I would guess that Noonan altered course to put them perhaps 60 miles north of their flight-planned true course. About an hour prior to his ETA, he would have taken a sun shot that gave him the 157°-337° LOP. Using his latest computed ground speed, he would have slid that LOP forward on the chart to where it would run through Howland.

Then he would have taken up a course that was perpendicular to the LOP, in this case 067°, and would have computed a dead reckoning position and time for intercepting the LOP. When they reached that time, they would have turned right to about 157° to fly down the LOP to Howland. That turning point, the dead-reckoning position, may have been on the order of 60 miles or about 30 minutes flying time from Howland.

During those 30 minutes there might have been a bit of conflict in crew imperatives. My experience with the South Pacific is that it is common to have wide stretches of scattered-to-broken, fair-weather cumulus clouds with bases as low as 1000 feet and tops somewhere around 3000 feet. Noonan would have wanted to stay on top to keep shooting the Sun to make sure the LOP continued to fall through Howland. Earhart would have wanted to drop down to see the island. Unfortunately, each of those little clouds has a shadow that looks just like a flat island.

Lae take off film clip here www.tighar.org/amelia_video.zip
I read too that Howland was 5 miles in error on the charts.

[tinpis]

Yes, after five years in PNG including Lae, I cant remember them big hangars with OAKLAND written on the roof

DOH

[J5pipercubfan]

Toronto Star Wed, 29 Jul 2009 02:26 AM PDT
Two Ontario DNA labs could play a key role in solving the mystery of famed aviator Amelia Earhart's disappearance 72 years ago.

Note: Above marks one of many one or two line news blurbs currently floating around. Notwithstanding the whys and hows of what is really going on Tighar, Nikumororo wise, so much at least sounds more seriously conveyed than it perhaps should be. People are always hungry for new 'Earhart hunt' news and lean towards misapplications rumormill wise when they read briefs like this.

[David Billings]

Stepwilk:

Gillespie is dedicated alright. He is dedicated to not standing in line looking for a real job.

J5 Piper Fan:

If you want to know the full story about Bolam, then contact Mr. Bill PRYMAK in Denver Colorado and he will fill you in, right from the beginning to the end. Bolasm was NOT head to toe the same as Earhart, she was shorter buddy, believe it. Red my previous post for photo remarks.

Chimbu:

I remember the WSG issue. I was full time at PX 92-2002. I am there NOW :eek:

Stepwilk:

Gillespie always say he has a "Scientific Investigation", so how come he mucked up the samples he has ? US$4.5 MILLION spent, says he should have had the right equipment.

ALL: See my earlier post as to why Earhart would "NOT" go to Gardner (Nikumaroro).

Tinpis:

The burst of white as the Electra takes off at Lae could have been a wet patch, it has been raining. Remember what rain is like at Lae ?

A-1-5

There is NO documentary evidence of wire being left on the runway at Lae. I have discussed this earlier. I believe Gillespie started that one but he will not answer as to his source, ie: "he can't".

Sundau:

a) Yes, b) No knowledge, c) Yes, but for it to have been the SS Myrtlebbank the acceleration and Groundspeed was not possible given the headwind d) Yes, Cude heard her (reported) e) He did get one f) Radio ops WERE poor.

Brian Abraham:

Do you think the sun could have been obscured ? The magi sunline through Howland which also goes through Gardner Island , believe it or not is in TRUE degrees, Aviators do not work in TRUE degrees. If she were calling a line she would have given the degrees in what Noonan told her to fly, ie: 148-328 MAGNETIC, the variation is damn near 10 degrees at Howland.

Regards,

Dave Billings

[Brian Abraham]

Do you think the sun could have been obscured ?
Dave, I have no view what so ever, merely noting an item I came across. Pity my Old Man is no longer around to answer some of these questions, as he was at Lae at the time and saw them off.

[S.E.A.L.11]

Thanks David for finding the thread and taking the time to post here. I find your story fascinating and I dont understand why with all the compelling evidence you have, no one will fork out some dough for an expedition!? :sad:

One day with my millions of $$$ I make, Ill be able to fund it :ok::}

Anyway Ill keep watching this thread with interest.

SEAL11 :)

[stepwilk]

It's amusing that you say Gillespie "is dedicated to not standing in line looking for a real job." He has created "a real job"--running a profitable and exciting adventure-travel company, essentially--rather than sitting in his Dilbert cubicle as perhaps you do. Amazing how much resentment of Ric there is from people who who achieve nothing but keystrokes while he's out having a fascinating experience that will perhaps even find Earhart. May, maybe not, but as Gillespie has always said, he doesn't care a whit about "the Earhart Legend," his interest is in the hunt,the pursuit, the chase, whether it's for some woman pilot who became a PR icon, or for a B-17 that was lost in a jungle, or for two loony Frenchmen who tried to beat Lindbergh across the Atlantic.

Ric I know and like. You, angry Mr. Billings, don't sound like a particularly enjoyable character.

[sixtiesrelic]

Seal, no one believed Bernard O'Reilly, so he went alone and found the Stinson in the Lamington Plateau.
Probably happens often.
yeah part of my millions when I win the lotto will go to proving David's right too.
I'm all for lots of little dollar donations in the hat.

[David Billings]

Brian Abraham:

Brian the first bit concerns the wire...rumour.

"Down to the Wire"..... Did your father happen to mention anything that would support a "rumour" that aerial wire was found on the strip after Earhart left. Knowledge of PNG is a good thing here and my money would say that a New Guinean employed to cut grass would find the aerial and take it to an operator in the hope of being rewarded.

That would cause a fleet check of all the aircraft at LAE...especially if there was an aerial mast hanging at the end...

We would have known about the aerial in 1937 not found out about it from America in the 1990's. That is my opinion and I'll stick with that until someone comes up with the evidence.

Radio Reception ..."nil"

As far as Radio Rx was concerned, her Rx WAS on the fritz. Stan Rose, an RAAF Sergeant had given her some fuses at Darwin in case the Rx fuse blew again. DCA in DRW castigated her (mildly) for her lack of Radio procedure on the approach into DRW. What say the Rx actually burnt out ? Then we can blame poor old Stan Rose for giving her the wrong amperage fuses ? Who knows how the Receiver behaved after she lost two-way contact, anything could have happened. An aerial connector could have come loose, furthermore, Radio experts from the 1930's onwards say that the UPPER aerial was for Rx/Tx via a relay just as my "Whistling Wheelbarrow" conveyance had the same set-up in the 60's. Until I hear proof that the lower aerial was for Rx, I'll believe the Radio gurus who say it was for beacon reception.

"Aah, the sun....line":

Commander Clarence William's strip maps show that the approach MAGNETIC heading for the last phase of the flight out at and on the approach to Howland was 068 degrees MAGNETIC. What say Noonan told her to steer 067 Magnetic as a correction ? At 1912 she is saying "Must be on you but cannot see you..." then starts a search "perpendicular to her last course steer of 067 MAG... What do we get then ? 157-337 MAG.

She said, "We are on the line 157-337", NOT "We are on the sunline 157-337". There is a difference. Furthermore, "if" she was meant to say "148-328" and that went through Howland, it goes nowhere near Gardner.

I rest my case. As I said earlier if Noonan gave her a steer off the TRUE sunline (which they were late to see anyway as that existed at sunrise) he would have subtracted the MAG Variation and given her 148-328 MAG and that is what she would have said. I'll accept rebuttals if I am wrong.

Regards,

David Billings

[David Billings]

Stepwilk:

Who is angry, I certainly am not. I take it then that you are an indefatigable fan of El Stripo and that you have contributed generously to his well-being, n'est pas ?

It's amusing that you say Gillespie "is dedicated to not standing in line looking for a real job." He has created "a real job"--running a profitable and exciting adventure-travel company, essentially--

Oh, really ? If you are talking about Mr. Gillespie's enterprise which goes by the name of "Tighar" than I am sure the American IRS would be interested to know that, because it is supposed to be a NON-PROFIT organisation and is registered as such. Duh....

--rather than sitting in his Dilbert cubicle as perhaps you do. Amazing how much resentment of Ric there is from people who who achieve nothing but keystrokes

Now, I know positively, that you have not even bothered to read my website or find out anything about me AT ALL, and therefore, I am going to leave you in your ignorance. Tch, Americans....

--while he's out having a fascinating experience that will perhaps even find Earhart. May, maybe not, but as Gillespie has always said, he doesn't care a whit about "the Earhart Legend," his interest is in the hunt,the pursuit, the chase, whether it's for some woman pilot who became a PR icon, or for a B-17 that was lost in a jungle,

Which B-17 do you mean, do you mean the Markham Valley B-17 which he tried to dis-assemble a score years ago but was prevented from doing so and (as the story goes) was apprehended by a PNG Constabule ("Ello dere"), on a "wil-wil" and removed from the vicinity (and the country) is what is said here. He doesn't talk much about that.

Or do you mean the "Swamp Ghost" which sits at LAE still in a shed and is still being fought over by some guy in Philly ?

or for two loony Frenchmen who tried to beat Lindbergh across the Atlantic.

Please, please, Stepwilk, you have over'step'ped the mark:

..... the (as you call) "loony" Frenchmen were actually WWI flying heroes de L'Armee de L'Aire...one of them had many Boche kills to his credit, he was an "ACE" and highly honoured in La Belle France and you call him and them both "loony" !!! .... "Sacre Bleu" Stepwilk, go into France and zey weel rremoof votre bonce... "Aux Armes ! Mes amis !...Stepwilk Aux Madame Guillotine", zey weel say... you will be looking up at where you have been if you go there !

Ric I know and like. You, angry Mr. Billings, don't sound like a particularly enjoyable character.

How wrong you are mate.

Regards,

Dave Billings.

[training wheels]

I'm all for lots of little dollar donations in the hat.

Yes, me too. This is all very interesting.

Dave, how about you setup a PayPal account and place a "PayPal Donate" button on your website? Here's how to do it (https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_donate-intro-outside).

[Brian Abraham]

Dave, what the Old Boy had to say was prior to 1966 so any detail he may have mentioned is well and truely flushed down the drain.

[rog747]

wow david,
i am fascinated by your epic tales AND AE especially since 2007 was 70 years since her last trip into the unknown...

it is amazing that in the 1930's so many things were at a pioneering stage and AE was at the forefront of aviation feats...

If you ever come to London i would buy you dinner !

ps i would happily donate if you set up a paypal fund

best wishes
rog

[Barkly1992]

Set up the account and I will be in.

This is a mystery that MUST be solved.

The group that persevered to find HMAS Sydney would agree.
:ok:

[rog747]

i have been up since 7am when i spotted this thread reading the links to david's site and others...

i am still not shaved or washed and cant stop reading lol
i am absolutely fascinated...

i must make myself a cuppa
its now 1140 am !!!

[tinpis]

Er....this is not off a Lockheed, is it?



http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y150/tinpis/images_temp_4_200809171813_1_Howlan.jpg

Pieces of an old US seaplane washed up on Howland Island's shore. No aircraft has ever landed on the island.
Posted by: Charles A Veley

[rog747]

i would like to visit howland or lae very much
take in the atmos of what it was like in 1937

this looks interesting

Fox Searchlight - Amelia - Official Site (http://www.foxsearchlight.com/amelia/)

[tinpis]

Atmosphere Lae '37?

Well the Cecil was there, probably where they stayed....

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y150/tinpis/plov1965_hotel_cecil.jpg



I would imagine the scene looked similar to this at breakfast...

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y150/tinpis/007Popondetta-1.jpg

[David Billings]

SEAL 11:

Ever since I stood on a street corner with my tin cup held out, I too have been surprised that no American funding has arisen for the Project. I put it down to the fact that the evidence has not arisen from America and therefore it can't be true. Although I have many supporters in America and some of them have sent amounts of money (especially a lady in L.A.) no-one has come up with the big tomale, the "larger" amount we need for the Magnetometer Survey. Despite the story being in USA Today back in 2001 and the website being up since 2004 the necessary moolah eludes us.:ugh:

Sixties Relic knows me and has sat in my office in my shed while I went through the detail of the project and I thank him and others for their support.

Training Wheels, Barkly, et al who want the Paypal thing. I'll see about setting that up when I get back home to Oz.

Brian Abraham:

If your Dad was in Lae and got out before the gentlemen from the Rising Sun arrived, he was lucky. Those that remained in Lae were taken to Rabaul and most ended up on the Montevideo Maru. "Hostages to Freedom - The Fall of Rabaul" by Peter Stone is an excellent read for anyone wanting to know about Rabaul since German times through to the end of WWII. A fascinating book and in it one more clue as to why no-one other than the Australian Patrol has seen the all-metal wreck which evidence says is the Electra.

Rog747:

Make it dinner at the Dorchester and you are "ON". I'll have the Beef Wellington...... always wanted to say that !

Tinpis:

For all those that do not know, "Tinpis" in Tok Pisin is "Tinned Fish" a staple here in PNG, "rais na tinpis" a dinnertime favourite....

Tinny, I have been reading your comments on the "ples bilong Tok-Tok" thread for a few years now. Mate, you would have made a fortune as a comedian in music halls !!! You have amused me no end over that period, Thanks........ and "Yes", they did stay at the Cecil. It is said Noonan left the drift bombs under the bed in his room. I was a bit too late to catch up with Mrs. Birrell to speak to her down at the Gold Coast.

Regards,

Dave Billings

[tinpis]

Thank you David perhaps you are right, I certainly never made a cent flying aeroplanes
Have fun on your quest, if you are near the Dero or Yat Klab in Goroka ask for a helo pilot chap, friend of Tinpis .

[J5pipercubfan]

About the Irene-Amelia website; when I discussed the 'Earhart mystery' matter with Tom Crouch of NASM at the Smithsonian Institute, he was forthright in describing how the Smithsonian offers no support to any of the various disappearance theories, even to the point of his admitting,"We're not permitted to." They do however, 'favor' the simple crashed and sank theory. National Geographic, also based in Washington DC follows suit, as it only conveys what private citizens are offering up about Earhart and never commits to supporting any of it. As for anyone's Bill Prymak referral, thanks but no thanks. He has evidenced himself as one dogmatically awry when it comes to Earhart. Half the stuff he says about Gervais and his Irene claim is outright incorrect. Mr. Prymak founded his illustrious 'Amelia Earhart Society' back in 1989, taking over the past membership of the AE Consortium founded by Ron Reuther years before. (Reuther had gained some notoriety and established a relationship with the National Geographic Society after his nursing of, and involvement with Koko, the famous gorilla who learned sign language back in the 1970s.) Reuther continued to be a member. The curious thing to be realized about Bill Prymak, Ric Gillespie, and Elgen Long... is for decades they have remained steadfast as the three most media dominating people when it comes to how the press annually covers the Earhart mystery. Reporters are always steered towards those guys first by their editors. Interestingly, (and although he has historically refused to commit to believing in anything about Earhart other than she turned up missing in 1937) Prymak gobbled up Reuther's past Marshall Islands theory supporters as his main membership constituency, to include making Colonel Reineck and Major Gervais two of the AES's first honorary members. For years he showered them both with praise and adulation, Gervais especially (Joe Klaas too, a good friend of Prymak's) while always showing respect to Gervais regarding his claim about the enigmatic Irene Criagmile (Bolam) having 'possibly' been the former Amelia Earhart. Incredibly, right after Gervais passed away in 2005 Mr. Prymak started decrying Gervais’ many years of research, to especially include his sudden staunch damning of the by then four decades old 'Irene controversy.' He claimed it was finally proven false when it wasn't. (Even Kevin Richlin, the fellow who appeared on the 2006 National Geo 'Unsolved History' show about AE, refused to outright state the Gervais claim was proved 'untrue.') Prymak and his partner, a Ukrainian physicist named Alex Mandel also started telling people how Gervais and Reineck both admitted they were wrong about Irene before they died, and that simply is not true. In Gervais' last filmed interview shortly before he died he still stressed his certain belief of how one of the three 'same identified' Irene Craigmile (Bolam) women could only have been the former AE. Whether she was or wasn't, it's a matter of record Gervais and Reineck both died still believing and stressing she was. Even Reineck was interviewed just before he passed away in September of 2007, and he still avowed how in spite of all nay-sayers one of the three Irene's had been formerly known as Earhart. His entie theory about it appeared flawed, but he expressed his certainty about the Gervais part time and again.

Otherwise it's a tad curious how Bill Prymak, a very wealthy retired construction engineer who in the 1990s established himself as the media's main go-to guy about the Marshalls theory; and Ric Gillespie, who has been the media's go to guy about his Gardner Island (Nikumororo) theory for more than a quarter century, and Elgen Long, Amelia's Sister Muriel's past good friend who receives the most 'polite' media attention always, has also since the 1970s been advocating his simple crashed and sank theory. Muriel had initially cooperated with Fred Goerner of CBS radio who basically introduced the Marshall Islands theory in 1966, and whose reasearch included the Admiral Nimitz admission how it was quietly 'known and documented in Washington' that 'Earhart and her navigator went down in the Marshall Islands and were picked up by Japan; and the Naval Commander Pillsbury quote from 1962 remarking how the real Earhart loss story would "stagger the imagination." In time Muriel evolved to only support Elgen Long's simple crashed and sank theory by the 1980s. (Muriel died in 1998.) Yes... I find it curious how over the years the three fellows of Long, Gillespie, and Prymak have all but dominated the entire Earhart mystery scene, while saying entirely different things about it, while forever commonly dissing the Gervais-Irene claim at the same time. Nothing has ever been solidly proved or disproved about Earhart's loss, other than the world wide recognized common fact of how she and Noonan and their plane were not seen nor heard from again after July 2, 1937. Plus, contrary to what anyone says or implies, the official record shows their radio messages stopping while they were still safely airborne, with what was likely close to four or five hours of fuel left.
I guess all I'm recommending is for people to still try and keep an open mind about Earhart's 1937 disappearance and aftermath. It's quite possible everyone in the public realm, to include Long, Gillespie, and Prymak... who has ever postulated anything about Earhart's final fate thus far remains way off. To add one more item about why one might find the Gervais claim about the Irene he met in 1965 curious... where even the original Irene's still living Son (born 1934) in the past displayed much ambiguity about his mother's true identity, and in 2006 he did admit he holds no photos of his mother pre-dating 1947, and where the film idea came into play, evidently, after he (Swindell) befriended Author Randall Brink and Joe Gervais in the mid 90s and learned there had never been a serious forensic study done on the Gervais Irene claim, he set out to arrange one. After he realized the person who Gervais met in 1965 appeared no where in the photo history of Irene's person prior to the 1940s, yet two other people did, a new window to the controversy had been opened. In 2000 Reineck reviewed the preliminary study results, and by 2002 he ws so taken by it, it inspired him to complete his book “Amelia Earhart Survived.” He also talked Prymak into combining with him for a five thousand dollar investment into the documentary project, and Prymak soon after started demanding his half of the investment back as he felt himself losing his dominance over the Irene-Amelia topic, that he always struggled so hard to maintain. Prymak, Gillespie, and Irene’s and Amelia’s family & past friend connections have been damning the study ever since the plural Irenes discovery was made in 2002. Yet no one, absolutely no one has ever forensically disproved the Gervais claim about the Irene he met. And one of the three Irenes did look like Amelia and was her exact same height. Again, nor Prymak, nor Gillespie, nor the Smithsonian, nor National Geographic, nor anyone else has ever lifted a serious finger to forensically disprove the old Gervais-Irene claim. They avoid it and tell others to avoid it too. See the Irene-Amelia site for more info. Try to take it more seriously where some might persuade others not to.

[Brian Abraham]

If your Dad was in Lae and got out before the gentlemen from the Rising Sun arrived, he was lucky
Actually he was there from the day they arrived till the day it all ended, save for two weeks when he came home and married a gal who had been evacuated shortly before the Rising Sun arrived.

[S.E.A.L.11]

Hmm...this caught my eye today, seems this group is pretty keen on the idea of the castaway theory based on hypothetical reports from the Brits :rolleyes:. Ah I wish that you're theory David could be proved... :(

Earhart theory to be tested - World - NZ Herald News (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10588272)

[David Billings]

J5 PiperCubFan:

One thing about Bill Prymak that I do know and that is he is not about telling porkies.... A few years back Bill told me (and a few others) that he and Joe Gervais visited Gertrude Hessien for an interview and she told them of a Mary Eubank who knew Irene Bolam from childhood and who had been seeing Bolam on and off. Gertrude suggested that they visit Mary on their way back to the airport but Gervais would not go and swore (pressured) Bill to secrecy as it was obvious that if Eubank knew Bolam for years and has seen her regularly until she dies then Bolam could not be Earhart.

The cross-reference to this is as I said before, Bolam worked in a bank in NYC during WWII so how could she be in Weishien Internment Camp in China, or in Garapan Jail on Saipan, or in the Emperors Palace in Tokyo or any other place where conspiracy theorists have her incarcerated, located, comatose or broadcasting as one of the Tokyo Rose gang, or whatever; if Bolam was working in a Bank in New York during WWII ?

SEAL 11:

I discussed the Nikumaroro Hypothesis in post No. 10 and gave four good reasons why it has faults. I think you would agree that the Electra certainly appears to have been late at the half-way point where the USCG Ontario was located with an average Groundspeed of only 120 Smph for the distance LAE-ONT of 1278 Statute Miles after 10.5 hours. Yes, I know some people say the ship was the SS Myrtlebank but the rate of acceleration needed from the PR at Nukumanu Atoll (at 0718GMT) and the final G/S at arrival over that ship's position (about the same distance as Nauru Island from Nukumanu) cannot be achieved in the "obvious" headwind that was affecting the progress of the Electra.

Therefore, it stands to reason (and logic) that if she only "thinks" she is at or lateral to Howland (by the inference of the 1912GMT call: "We MUST be on you but cannot see you"), then she does not know for sure that she is there. She has to be there to get that 157-337 sunline, which as I keep saying, is in TRUE degrees and Aviators do not work in TRUE degrees and even if they do, they do not broadcast in TRUE degrees and neither do ATC guys.

Look at the Flight Plan time, she said it would take her over 18 hours to get to HOW. She always planned for the magical 150 Smph G/S (if she could get it). She had power settings for weights which gave her that speed in still air for those particular settings. Her flight planning consisted of dividing the distance by 150 and getting an hour figure. Commander Williams' chart shows a NIL wind time LAE-HOW of 17 Hours and 1 minute. Divide 2556 by 150, that's what you get. All she did was feed in the wind. So she used the low end forecast of 12 Smph Easterly and divided 2556 by 138 = 18.52 Hours. 18 Hours 31 minutes.

If she is calling at 1912 GMT, then she is late and she has "missed" the sunrise at Howland and the sun's azimuth is no longer at 067 degrees TRUE, the degree number falls off as time passes and the sun sweeps the sky. By the time they got there (they did not get there...remember !), it would have been more like 138-318 degrees TRUE.

So, I say that as her approach heading to HOW was supposed to be at 068 MAGNETIC, Fred Noonan may have told her to steer 067 MAG due to the wind which by all accounts from records was from the N-East. So if she now, at 1912GMT starts a search, she is going to turn perpendicular to her course and that means 157-337 which is what she called, simple as that, it was not a sunline at all. "We are on the line 157-337", not "We are on the sunline 157-337".......

Regards,

David Billings

[sundaun]

I applied to US Dept of the Interior to visit the above by sea in the 90s. An emphatic NO because of sea bird colonies having had no contact with humans. Huge fines if breached.

[VH-XXX]

Well I can say David that I am excited for you. If you find enough cash, get your chopper with required gear, head in there and find it, then you were right and everyone else was wrong and how good will you feel!

[S.E.A.L.11]

Hi David,

Just wondering if you were still considering a PayPal set up on the website? I reckon there are a few here that would put some dough in for a good cause. Even with a bit of marketing, who knows!?:confused:

Anyway keep up the good work! :ok:

~S.E.A.L.11~

[ZEEBEE]

Just wondering if you were still considering a PayPal set up on the website? I reckon there are a few here that would put some dough in for a good cause. Even with a bit of marketing, who knows!?

Sorry SEAL and David, but it would be a waste of money.

Not because I doubt the veracity of David's research and conclusions but because having flown many thousands of kilometres in PNG with geophysically equipped helicopters and processed the data, I have a good understanding of their capabilities.

The current state of the art system that can be flown in the country mentioned couldn't find a B747 if it were hidden from view let alone a possibly severely fragmented Lockheed Electra.

It is quite irresponsible of ANY geophysical contractor to claim that they can and I would say that they're driven by the commercial gain only, knowing full well that it is not feasible.. If they're that confident, why don't they fund the flying themselves and reap the publicity benefits?

I wish it were otherwise, but that is not going to make it happen. :(

[the wizard of auz]

I wondered how long you were going to sit in silence on this matter Zeebee.
From what I have gathered sitting in 210s cutting never ending lines up and down the country, I had the same opinion as you have expressed. I'm glad someone that actually knows what he is talking about has expressed what I was thinking. :ok:

[ZEEBEE]

I wondered how long you were going to sit in silence on this matter Zeebee.
From what I have gathered sitting in 210s cutting never ending lines up and down the country, I had the same opinion as you have expressed. I'm glad someone that actually knows what he is talking about has expressed what I was thinking.

Wiz

I thought I had made the point before, but can't find the reference.

My reason for piping up again is that there is a call for people to put up some funds for this type of search and I feel some-one qualified has to warn them that it will be a waste of money.

David responded to my original post and said that he'd been assured by the company involved that it indeed could.

Since I was involved with "that" company and was one of the dissenters, my objection was over-ruled in the interest of commercial gain.

I maintain that any geo outfit who reckon that they can detect such a response, ought to do it as a public service. However, in this case, I wouldn't.

We actually did that some years ago when we ran a helicopter platform over Sydney Harbour in search of the missing Japanese Midget sub.

Unfortunately, we weren't looking in the right spot as it turned out, but we were reasonably confident of detecting it if it wasn't too fragmented.

But that was a 1,200 ton bit of steel not a 2800kg bit of aluminium with almost NO residual magnetic signature.

Currently, there is no known airborne surveying platform that can detect this target in a practical and economic manner.

[David Billings]

Hello again to all who are interested in this project.

I've a had a log-in problem lately but it seems to be OK now.

First off:

VH-XXX:

I was a bit irked by your supercilious remark of two months ago that "I will be right and everyone else will be wrong". It is not a case of that, ending the mystery and perhaps actually finding out what did go wrong out there will be reward enough. I have been at this for 15 years now and I will say this to you: If you had the evidence we have, you would be at it too mate. If you want to partake in meaningful discussions, please do, but keep remarks like that to yourself and if there was "perhaps" any jealousy in it too, you can keep that to yourself as well. Thankyou.

SEAL 11

Thanks for reviving the thread. I couldn't find it (so to speak).

ZEEBEE

Thanks for your forthright statements. If that's the way it is then we have to have a re-think.

It was in 1994 that I and Don Angwin sat down with the CEO of GeoScience in Perth and discussed how it could be done. He assured Don and I that with the technology he had then that he could find the ferrous in the engines to a depth of 85 feet by a chopper towing a bird over the trees. He offered the data processing for free if we could raise the required 100K as it was then. Was that all pure BS ?

Since then technology has improved by leaps and bounds from what I read and the chopper with a boom can get closer to the trees. Data processing apparently now consists of removing the hard drive from the gear, taking it to the hotel room plugging it into a laptop and we get the Lat/Long in the morning.

I have spoken with Fugro on a few occasions. I say "I" have spoken with them, they seem not to want to talk until I show them the dough. This is broadly speaking along the same line as you infer.

Which company were you with, the former or the latter ?

There is about 500 lbs. of ferrous in each engine which is the crankshaft, the bob-weights, the con-rods, the clinder barrels and heads. Two concentrated blobs about 30 metres apart. There are also the ferrous parts in the landing gear struts and steel tubing of the mounts.

None of that would show ? What about the Magnetometer work done in PNG in the sixties and seventies where "it is said" WWII wrecks showed up as pinpoints on the scans ? BS too ?

Latest update

Two interested parties at the moment. We will see how that goes.

Back in 1936 when Earhart took delivery on C/N 1055, she and Kelly Johnson of Lockheed ran a series of flight tests to see what the Electra could do with some serious fuel management. This resulted in Lockheed Report 487 "Long Range Study of a Bi-Motor Airplane", the tests being done to see how far it could go on 1200 USG. The results show a range of 4100 to 4500 Statute Miles on that tankage but of course she never did fly with that amount for shortly after the tests they took out one tank and the tankage then became 1151 USG.

The tests seem to have been done at "Lean of Peak" and Johnson was a bit concerned about CHT's and figured that they may have to put shutters in front of the cylinders (like the Russians did on some of their radials)

There are three examples of fuel loads that we know about which would have resulted in extreme ranges:

1. OAK-HNL in March 1937. 2400 Sm on 947 USG. AE stated she had over four hours of fuel left if she missed Oahu. That would be for searching at low level.

2. HNL-HOW in March 1937. This flight did not take place as she groundlooped on T.O. The flight was supposed to be for 1900 Sm but with the contingency of the Gilberts making 2500 Sm possible on the 900 USG.

3. LAE-HOW, the final flight. 2556 Sm plus The Gilberts as a contingency which would be another 600 Sm making 3156 SM on 1100 USG.

Looking at Report 487 and Johnson advice to AE if she encountered adverse winds "Lean off into adverse winds..." we can say that she met an "adverse" wind at Nukumanu Atoll when she reported 23 Knots but did not give a direction.

Take -off from LAE was at 0000GMT 2nd July.

From my workings of the flight which from "The Chater Report" (on the www.) (http://www.)) went by way of LAE-CHOISEUL Is-NUKUMANU the sector CHO-NUK is on a track of 040 degrees TRUE. They ended up some 19 miles to the West of NUK, obviously blown off the track by an abeam wind. A simple vector diagram shows that Noonan used an Easterly of 12 Smph and if you use the 25 Smph reported and do the vector again you end up where they ended up. So the higher wind value was an Easterly.

If it was 25 mph Easterly at 7,000 feet what "could" it have been at 10,000 or 12,000 (Lovell reports the Cruise at 12 K) going into night ???

They were obviously late at the USCG Ontario at the half-way point at 1030GMT

Running the numbers again on fuel you can see that the turnback fuel available at around 2015GMT, twenty and a quarter hours from T.O would be around 300 USG.

On the OAK-HNL flight in March 1937, AE had not wanted to arrive at Wheeler Field on Oahu in the dark. On page 37 of her book "Last Flight" she says (in her own handwiriting it is on Page 36): "We are throttled down so as not to arrive in the dark. At 10000 feet and 120IAS we are burning less than 20 USG of gas."

I say that faced with no land where she thought HOW would be, she searched and then turned for the Gilberts. If you arrive overhead of the Gilberts with around 240 USG in tanks and you know that at 10,000 feet with 120 indicated that you will burn "less than" 20 USGPH, you KNOW that your endurance is 12 hours (MAX) to tanks dry, say 11 Hours Max to unusable fuel. If AE turned back at 2015 after searching and headed for the Gilberts and saw them at 2200GMT she can endure until around 0900GMT on the 3rd July.

Looking at the graphs for a weight of 9,500 lbs at 10000ft and 120 mph you get the H.P required and if you use an SFC of 0.46 the consumption is 18USGPH if you use an SFC of 0.50 (richer) you get 20 USGPH.

At 6:31pm, 6:43pm and 6:54pm RABAUL local time on 3rd July '37, (0831 to 0854 GMT) NAURU radio Station VKT heard calls on 6210 Kcs. The operator said the voice sounded the same as the voice he heard the night before (AE's call at 1030GMT "Ship in sight) but there was no hum of the aircraft in the background. He could not make out what the voice was saying. If the aircraft was near Rabaul it is still within VKT's reception range at night.

Who would be airborne over the SW Pacific and Tx'ing on 6210Kcs at that time of night ? Sounds to me like someone trying to raise a Ground Station. Those times are at last light and darkness in the Rabaul area.

0000GMT/2 to 0900GMT/3 is 33 Hours.

Any opinions/suggestions/remarks on this ?

Regards,

David Billings.

[ZEEBEE]

It was in 1994 that I and Don Angwin sat down with the CEO of GeoScience in Perth and discussed how it could be done. He assured Don and I that with the technology he had then that he could find the ferrous in the engines to a depth of 85 feet by a chopper towing a bird over the trees. He offered the data processing for free if we could raise the required 100K as it was then. Was that all pure BS ?

Since then technology has improved by leaps and bounds from what I read and the chopper with a boom can get closer to the trees. Data processing apparently now consists of removing the hard drive from the gear, taking it to the hotel room plugging it into a laptop and we get the Lat/Long in the morning.

I have spoken with Fugro on a few occasions. I say "I" have spoken with them, they seem not to want to talk until I show them the dough. This is broadly speaking along the same line as you infer.

Which company were you with, the former or the latter ?

There is about 500 lbs. of ferrous in each engine which is the crankshaft, the bob-weights, the con-rods, the clinder barrels and heads. Two concentrated blobs about 30 metres apart. There are also the ferrous parts in the landing gear struts and steel tubing of the mounts.

None of that would show ? What about the Magnetometer work done in PNG in the sixties and seventies where "it is said" WWII wrecks showed up as pinpoints on the scans ? BS too ?

David....I have no wish to "rain on your parade " and would be interested in assisting you in any way, but the reality of using currently available geophysics in the context you describe is still not feasible.

To answer your questions;

I had associations with Geoscience years ago and worked for Fugro for five years or so after they took over the company I worked for.
World Geoscience never let reality stand in the way for a fast buck and their offer to process for free was meaningless since about five hours work was all that would have been required and they would have padded that into their flying costs anyway....modus operandi for them.

Yes things have progressed in leaps and bounds, but not far enough.
A "bird mounted" magnetic gradiometer is still the best technology to find the magnetic components, but unless you know within a square kilometer (for sure) where the aircraft was, the cost of doing so would be horrendous.
Of course, if you knew that, then finding it by a ground party would be more certain, quicker and cheaper.

The problem re the ferrous components is that they don't have a lot of permanent magnetic properties and hence little signature.
That's why it's sister ship the Lockheed Hudson made such a good magnetic sensing platforms in the fifties.
In fact, with a 100ft towline, the Hudson virtually became magnetically invisible to the instrumentation!
The Hudson as I recall was even larger than the Electra.

Re the WWII wrecks, well I did much of those surveys and the only ones I ever saw were the landing craft on the beaches which did show up (many tons of steel).
To my knowledge no aircraft have been found by the magnetics other than those already known about.
We flew over a B25 at Madang that was just under water, and if we didn't know it was there we would have missed it completely on the magnetic readings.

I could go on, but would be happy to talk to you regarding the issues if you wish to PM me.

[David Billings]

ZEEBEE

There is absolutely no problem about raining on my parade.... I only want the correct information and if GeoScience as it was then fed me BS all those years ago and the other mob have kept quiet and hoped I'd feed them money, well thay can keep hoping if their BS is the same.

We all enjoy it in there when we do get the chance to get into the bush and if it means more ground searches then that's the way it will be but I may have to be carried around in a sedan chair....:rolleyes:

I have PM'd you.

Regards,

DB.

[XX-ANY]

Earhart's Final Resting Place Believed Found : Discovery News (http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/10/23/amelia-earhart.html)

[stepwilk]

Amusing. There isn't a word in that Discovery Channel article that's less than five, maybe 10 years old. The exact same article--"Earhart's Final Resting Place Believed Found," or whatever the actual title was, could have been written in the year 2000.

Not Ric Gillespie's fault, though. Some blogger simply did some Internet research to write something coincident with the opening of the "Amelia" film. The reviews of which, by the way, have been universally near-totally negative.

[rog747]

saw the new amelia film in london last week, was very good...for a bio-pic
i liked it and the score/costumes etc...

hows things going with png theory david?

would love to know more
rgds rog

[David Billings]

Rog747:

We will be going in again this year (2010) and I am presently sweating on some funding coming our way for the trip.

No more evidence has turned up, I think we have exhausted the available information, except to say that a correspondent of mine did find a newspaper article from a 1937 U.S. newspaper which stated that "Miss Earhart plans to fly direct from Dakar to Aden...." which is a distance of 4300 miles and the article said over 28 hours of flight time required. Some other newspapers also carried the story.

I have seen an inference to this before in Clarence Williams strip maps and if you divide the distance by the "magic" Flight Planned groundspeed of 150 mph you do get the 28+ Hours required.

In the event she did not do this due to adverse winds but the intent to fly that distance means that the Electra was capable of that distance and also of that endurance, ie; particularly, it was capable of the range.

Regards,

David Billings.

[rog747]

a long time has past since your last posting march 2010 but i see you wrote on
another site in jan 2012 so i hope you are fit and well,

u mentioned in 2010 you may go back to PNG to search again...

any news and updates most welcome

regards

[Fantome]

From Wiki, this seems to be latest news of the search for AE -

On March 20, 2012, the US State Department and TIGHAR together announced that TIGHAR is launching a new search based on the re-evaluation of a 1937 photograph taken of the reef at Nikumaroro. Called "Niku 7" and endorsed by Dr. Robert Ballard, the expedition will embark in July 2012 to undertake an underwater search off Nikumaroro.

[Frank Arouet]

Good to see the reserruction of old threads remind us of Wiz.

RIP mate.

[David Billings]

Rog,

We were unable to go in during 2010 due to my son sustaining injuries in a Mining accident from which he has since fully recovered.

We did go in last year, the whole team once in June/July where I had the misfortune to break my left arm while descending a steep incline. After it cured, I went back alone in August.

On these visits, the project had a portable Magnetometer which proved in the end to be no help as it gave scattered readings in a few places which could not possibly be the wreck. We know the wreck is in two main pieces, one the aircraft and the second the detached engine. I now suspect the hill is composed of iron ore. We did dig down at three "strike" locations but came down to firm clay which had been there since the dawn of time.

On my last visit in August some information came my way which said that the wreck is buried but no information as to exactly "where" and that it has been buried since around late 1996, early 1997. I will not say how we came across this information but this information now proves that we are in the correct area. We were not looking in this particular area at that time in '96 or '97 but were further to the West. We were then following the words of the Vets as to where they thought it was. This has proved to be not the case and the Vets were mistaken as to location. The WWII records made the picture clearer.

When the Australian War Memorial finished digitising the WWII records around the year 2000, I was then able to read the historical records and the actual SITREPS and gain more knowledge from the references contained in them. We then started looking in this latest area from around the year 2002. Since then we were in the area in 2004, 2006 and 2008 and saw nothing. We now know why.

I got this information about the wreck being buried in the last two days of my time there in August. I have long suspected it to be buried which was the reason I purchased the portable Magnetometer. On the last trip in, the last two days were spent scouting around in the area looking for "mounds" in likely places which fitted the description of the 1945 site as given by the ex-Lieutenant, Ken Backhouse. Where I looked at this area at this last time in, the site exactly fits with Ken's description.

The weather was very wet for the time of year and the local people say that the seasons have changed and June to September which were the drier months have now gone to the reverse. We had to move camp a couple of times due to the river rising in July and I had to move once in August.

The upshot now is that I have ordered a couple of Metal Detectors and we will be going again this year. I have firm commitments this year with my work which involves looking after aircraft on maintenance in SIN and am not available to go until around September time.

The lady in Los Angeles who is helping me with funding is shortly to put the Project into www.indiegogo.com (http://www.indiegogo.com) which is a public funding website where a couple of dollars here and there mount up to assist projects like this.

So, the Project has ordered and paid for the Metal Detectors and we now await the raising of funding to be able to go again in September.

David Billings

[Fantome]

I think I can say, those of us who follow your story closely naturally wish you and your supporters every good fortune, every devoutly wished for prospect of success, in your dogged search for the Lockheed. GO WELL DAVID.



We did go in last year, the whole team once in June/July where I had the misfortune to break my left arm while descending a steep incline. After it cured, I went back alone in August.

. . . . and try not to stick your neck out .. . . . for were that to break .. !!!

[VH-XXX]

I'm glad that you have secured some funding to assist. A while back I suggested PayPal, however your method is a little more graceful.

Good luck and I'm sure we all wish you some serious success.

[VH-XXX]

Hi David,

What are your thoughts on this?

EAA News - Cosmetic Jar Thought to Be Amelia Earhart's (http://www.eaa.org/news/2012/2012-05-31_earhart.asp)

They seem convinced.

I really do hope that you have success. A lot of research has gone into your theory.

[David Billings]

VH-XXX

Oh Yes.... the "Freckle Cream" Jar....

Then there are: the bits of plexiglass, the size 10 shoe, the "Cats-Paw" heel, the metal box with a Consolidated Part No. on it, the ragged piece of aluminium with rivet holes in it, the jack-knife blade, the cigarette lighter, the so-named: "dado", the bronze bushes found in the old Carpenter's hut, the shard of human bone (or is it a shard of turtle bone ?), the piece of coprolite, the broken mirror and some pieces of something resembling face "rouge".

All circumstantial bits and pieces none of which can be said to have belonged to an Electra, a Pratt & Whitney S3H1 Wasp or to Earhart and Noonan.

Before TIGHAR got there to Nikumaroro and when it was named Gardner Island, there were the bones found there in 1940, examined by a British Doctor named Hoodless on Fiji and then said to be of a mixed-race male, 5 feet 6 inches tall. TIGHAR puts the measurements made by Dr. Hoodless, through a computer, the new result being that the bones belong to a Nordic female, five feet nine inches tall.... now who would that be ?

TIGHAR completely dismisses the thought and will not purposely mention, that 11 souls from the S.S. Norwich City were lost in 1929 when that ship ran aground on the reef there in atrocious weather and only four bodies were buried in the coral of the island. A later Survey Team visited the island in 1938 and recorded the beach as being littered with human bones.

Aircraft were lost in the Phoenix Group during WWII on Canton Island and on Sydney Island. Of those lost, one at least was a Consolidated Liberator B-24. If anyone has seen photographs of wrecks left on Pacific Islands, it will be realised that local people are metals hungry and will chop out pieces and utilise them for all sorts of things.

During WWII a LORAN Station was operating on Gardner Island and in attendance were some 20-odd U.S. Coast Guardsmen. They used the island for walks, had target practice sessions with the weapons they had and probably had BBQ's by the beaches with the fresh food flown in by Catalina aircraft landing and taking off at the lagoon. "Bored out of their brains", they would find anything different to do rather than stay in their accommodation building when not on duty. It was exactly the same for me when I was stationed on Labuan Island in 1960. I too used to go exploring that island, in many places which still had copious relics from WWII still there.

Who is to say the supposed "Freckle Cream" jar (incidentally, which is not yet proven as a "Dr. Berry's Freckle Cream" jar....) did not belong to one of those US Coast Guardsmen stationed on the island.... do men not get freckles ?

The now named Nikumaroro Island has been contaminated with European presence for well nigh nine decades and inter-island traffic by the local people would have brought items from the other islands as well.

TIGHAR has done good research on "what" they have found, but so far, none of it is related to the ill-fated Earhart and Noonan flight.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com (http://www.earhartsearchpng.com)

[Centaurus]

Having flown the south and central Pacific regions in 737's in the period 1976 to 1990 I always marvelled at the sight of thousands of low altitude tiny cumulus clouds that invariably cast their shadow on the ocean below. You would swear there were atolls under each cloud because from 35,000 ft the cloud shadows could easily be mistaken for an atoll. Thousands of atolls in fact. It was by observing those cloud shadows I could understand how easy it would be for a desperately tired crew flying at 2-5000 feet to miss seeing one vital atoll.
My guess is the aircraft was forced to ditch as it ran out of fuel probably in an area of 50-80 miles surrounding its planned destination.

A similar thing happened in 1954 when an RAF Canberra bomber departed Momote airfield on Manus island north of New Guinea for the US base at Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands. Distance 1400 miles which would be around 3.5 hours in a Canberra. See the story in another Pprune forum.

In that incident the Canberra was in thick high level cloud and its radio compass failed. The crew were forced to descend earlier than planned in order to obtain a pin-point. They broke clear of low cloud at 1000 feet and were unable to find any trace of an island immediately. They were faced with ditching when an atoll was seen and short of fuel they successfully landed wheels down in the shallow water of a lagoon. It turned out they were off course and 90 miles short of Kwajalein. That was after four hours airborne whereas the Lockheed Electra would have been airborne closer to ten hours when fuel was exhausted.

[Amelia is Irene]

Thank you for your post. I found it invaluable. I would like to know how I can get ahold of the tapes/video/transcripts of these videos.
I have used some of your text here (below).
https://www.facebook.com/IreneisAmelia?ref=hl

[Little Sammy]

I've read some of your posts and have a few questions. Can the report to and reply from the US Army Aid Corps be documented?

Same question for the Australian Army Patrol.

It really is absurd to think that Amelia would have continued to fly the 157-337 line. Circling to search for Howland Island for a while, might have made sense, but only until fuel got low enough to make returning unlikely.

But, if returning was the backup plan, everybody should have known it. And I've never heard a word about that until I came across this site.... What's up with that?

I have several books on Amelia and one says the long trailing antenna was damaged in the crash in Hawaii and not replaced. Another says she had it removed in Miami. I imagine if she had it at the time, she'd have used it? Perhaps that explains why she could not rdf Howland? It worked and brought her into Honolulu. It might also explain why the Itasca couldn't locate her?

[rog747]

its reported the antenna was maybe ripped off on her last take off from Lae hence her not being able to receive tx back. (i think that's correct?)

from what i gather they did not exactly have a notified back-up plan...as such

it was assumed they would find howland and the ship...
but she said to Mr Vidal that she would turn back to try and hit the islands
if it all went wrong.

''Earhart had stated to Gene Vidal, when asked what she would do if she could not find Howland: "I will turn back for the Gilbert Islands, find a place to put it down on the land, find a beach, or ditch close to shore."
In the first attempt she made in March 1937, the plan had been to leave Hawaii with 900 USG of fuel and fly to Howland Island, a distance of 1900 miles. Her contingency was the same..."the Gilberts". Now, that means that 900 USG was enough for the 1900 miles HAWAII-HOWLAND plus another 600 miles, HOW-GILBERTS. That means 2500 miles on 900 USG. For the LAE-HOW flight she carried 1100 USG which then, was enough for 2556 + 600 miles = 3156 miles, at "Cruise" power.
Why would she then, at the last minute, unsure of her position, change her mind and head for Gardner when she was unsure of her position, instead of heading for the North-South spread of the Gilberts which extends for some 500 miles and is difficult to miss ? You cannot navigate from an "unknown" position to another "known" position, you have no means of navigating. Heading for the Gilberts would in certainty gaurantee a landfall.


was it all rather jolly boys own stuff back then?

there is documentary and face-to face evidence of the ozzie patrols and their HQ reports plus a location map in new Britain of where the wreck thought to be her a/c was found in 1945, all of which is Dave billings's expeditions.

there is another threads going
http://www.pprune.org/aviation-history-nostalgia/516029-amelia-earharts-plane-found.html

http://www.pprune.org/non-airline-transport-stuff/480452-search-amelia-earhart-starts-again.html

[Little Sammy]

You don't have to convince me that it doesn't make any sense that they'd have no reason to continue to fly the line and end up near Gardner Island.

But when two authors of AE books (John Miklos & John Burke) say the 250' trailing antenna wasn't installed, why lather about it being damaged on takeoff from Lae? A few puffs of dust reported? That's absurd. We'll ignore the fact that their reports directly contradict each other.

David Billings says on a Warbirds forum that Amelia planned a 4,305 mile leg from Dakar to Aden. I don't know where he got that info? In any case, she didn't fly that. But if he's right about that, then she must have thought the Electra did have the range to make the return flight.

But then why didn't she drop onto one of the Gilbert's?

I think Mr. Billings efforts would be aided greatly if he could get the University of Wisconsin library to issue a statement confirming the information. And it would be aided even more if the USAF would confirm that the USAAC received the query and the TAG! And that they sent the reply.

Then maybe some of the funds being wasted on TIGHAR might flow to him!

[elizabeth 79]

Irene vs emelia. There is no way the two are the same. I am a hairdresser in the united states . Irene has very curly hair a deep wave over her right side, emelia has curly hair that goes down to form a bang she has a soft curl there is no way irene could wear her hair the way amelia did, it is not possible,curly hair is your part of your dna irene,s hair will always fall to the right this is a fact,you cannot change the way a person hair grows irene could never where a bang just my 2 cents elizabeth 79

[David Billings]

Earhart Search in PNG

For those that are interested in the latest effort in to locate an aircraft wreck seen in 1945 which could be Earhart & Noonan's Electra 10E please look at my new website:

www.earhartsearchpng.com

We will be going again in June this year.

Regards,

David Billings

[tpng conehead]

Dave,
Will be following you with great interest.
Be safe up there.
Wes

[LKinnon]

Good luck with the endeavor.

[aroa]

Fabulous, fascinating 'forensics'...and then some

Lets hope that this time it all comes together for a successful conclusion.

All the very best for the search teams and Dave...its been a long haul.

[David Billings]

Earhart & Noonan in Papua New Guinea Theory

I have been keeping a glass eye on this thread for the past week.... 350 views so far today and a total of 2650 views in one week.... That shows a lot of interest in an eighty-year-old mystery.

I "re-discovered" this thread one week ago and decided to enliven it with the new website address.

Some things have changed in my appraisal or in my thinking about the Earhart "Last Flight" as to the detail but the story basically has not changed. The Australian Army Patrol A1 commencing on the 15th April 1945 did find an all-metal unpainted twin-engined aircraft with Pratt & Whitney Wasp engines, that is the fact. The "how" of how that aircraft, which, from the evidence is the missing Electra, got to be there remains to be seen. Whatever the aircraft is, be it the Electra or something else, my pragmatic view is that it has to be found, because if it is not the Electra, then it will be removed from the possibles list. For me, I consider it is the Electra.

If it is the Electra, and I consider that it is, then it is a complete answer to where Earhart and Noonan ended their lives and we can start to unravel the whys and wherefores from there. The aircraft clock would be my first target in that case....

To catch up on a few questions asked within this thread:

"Was there a plan to fly DAKAR-ADEN direct ?"

Yes, there was. Earhart engaged ex-USN Commander Clarence Williams to prepare a series of strip maps for her, which encompassed all the proposed sectors which she had planned to fly on the RTW flight. The strip maps were made out as per great circle flights taking into account the Earth's magnetic changes and, for instance, the LAE-HOWLAND flight shows adjustments of magnetic course at around every four hours as the change in Magnetic Variation went from 6 degrees to near 10 degrees. The outbound Magnetic steer is shown as well as an inbound steer in case the flight was conducted for either "Eastbound" or "Westbound"'

All the strip maps were produced for NIL Wind conditions and for a Groundspeed of 150 Statute Miles per hour. This then moves anyone researching the Earhart flights to consider that all that Earhart had to do, was to convert the G/S to a forecast actual G/S by deducting a forecast headwind or adding a forecast tailwind or vectoring the value for whatever wind was forecast.

The DAKAR-ADEN Strip map shows a flight of 28 Hours and 40 Minutes for the 4307 Statute Miles of the distance (28.66r x 150 = 4300).

The LAE-HOW strip map in similar vein, shows 17 Hours and 01 minutes for the 2556 Statute miles of the distance (2556 / 150 = 17.04 hours). In this case, as Earhart received a forecast of 12-15 mph wind as a headwind, she deducted 12 from 150, divided 2556 by 138 and came out with 18.52 hours or 18 Hours and 31 Minutes. To people who asked she said that the flight would take over 18 hours. Logic says that if she had considered that she should take the worst case of a 15 mph headwind then she really would have been better saying "Nearly19 hours" ( 2556 / 135 = 18.93 hours), but she didn't say that. In the event the wind turned out to be worse still.

We are looking for a range of about 4170 miles into a headwind and returning with a tailwind. In the website I speak of a return path back to NUKUMANU Atoll and thence onward towards New Britain passing overhead Mortlock Island (T'au Group) and Carteret Reef and if that line is continued to the West, it does actually make landfall on New Britain at Wide Bay and pass over the area where we have been searching since 1994.

LIttle Sammy says:

"I've read some of your posts and have a few questions. Can the report to and reply from the US Army Air Corps be documented?"

I do suppose that the find was documented and went in signal traffic within the Australian Army from 13 Brigade HQ to 5th Division and from there by signal to the American Army. However, at Jaquinot Bay there was an entire Company of the American Army Regiment called the 594th EB&SR (Engineer, Boat and Shore Regiment) which had about 12 Officers and 100 or so enlisted men running 30 odd Landing Craft and assorted boats. There was an Australian Officer attached to this American Unit as a Liaison Officer and his chain of command was direct from 5th Division. As I see it, any notification of what was thought to be an "American" aircraft down in the jungle would be brought to this Officers attention to be passed on to the American Unit. Hence, we had the story of the two U.S. Army Officers visiting "D" Company of the 11th Battalion A.I.F. to speak to Lt. Backhouse but he was out on Patrol again and they left. I discuss this fully in the website.

The other companies of the 594th EB&SR were at Hollandia (now Jayapura), preparing for the Philippines and the administrative control of the company at Jaquinot Bay was handed over to another EB&SR Regiment in the Western Pacific, so we have two HQ Groups Records to go through. I have one member in our group who has searched some NARA Records in WAS but nothing found to date.

"Same question for the Australian Army Patrol."

There is a missing record (listed on the map edge) which we cannot find in the Australian War Memorial and it is numbered "63A". The "A" denotes it as an annex report and so far it has eluded us. Two personal visits to Canberra and one Professional Researcher visit have failed to produce it. As an "Annex" report it probably did detail extraneous subjects of Patrol A1, like the find of an all-metal twin-engined aircraft....

"It really is absurd to think that Amelia would have continued to fly the 157-337 line. Circling to search for Howland Island for a while, might have made sense, but only until fuel got low enough to make returning unlikely."

I agree where some do not. A square search was likely but on what was heard, this did not happen. Earhart transmitted "On the line 157-337..." only. The Contingency Plan is discussed in the website at Part 7., and is as told to me by researcher Ron Bright of Washington State, as he was involved.

"But, if returning was the backup plan, everybody should have known it. And I've never heard a word about that until I came across this site.... What's up with that?"

Earhart was to put it mildly, "secretive" and didn't discuss a lot of her plans with people, many were left in the dark, that was just her modus operandi.

"I have several books on Amelia and one says the long trailing antenna was damaged in the crash in Hawaii and not replaced. Another says she had it removed in Miami. I imagine if she had it at the time, she'd have used it? Perhaps that explains why she could not rdf Howland? It worked and brought her into Honolulu. It might also explain why the Itasca couldn't locate her?"

The trailing antenna was for Tx on 500 Kcs and so that she could contact shipping and ground stations over long ranges "if" she so desired. The website has a notation about the lack of communication possible between Earhart and the ONTARIO stationed roughly at the half-way point of the LAE-HOW flight, the Electra had HF Radio and the Ontario had LF Radio and the pair of them could not communicate...

The Trailing antenna according to reports was removed at Miami. RDF or "DF" was another matter, her Loop antenna was there for DF but again, another hitch when she asked ITASCA to TX on a frequency (7500Kcs) which was not correct... "But", she did hear letter "A's"' by listening on her DF Loop aerial. Perhaps she was just too far away from Itasca to receive a strong enough signal to obtain the null she desperately needed. Itasca had not been asked in advance to provide bearings and this took them unawares.

I am really glad I unzipped this thread because 2650 views in a week and a big spike in the website statistics means that there is still a lot of interest out there in the Earhart Mystery and in the solving of it.

When I speak to people about the revelation that came in 2016 when my memory kicked in about the house-block sized "bare patch" where a bulldozer had been working and which I saw in 1996 and which I now suppose could well be the burial site.... People are incredulous as to think that someone buried the aircraft wreck "on purpose". Well, incredulous or not, we are dealing with some people in PNG who have distinct tribal instincts. There has been a simmering land dispute in this area and the bulldozer driver was not from the local area but was from one of the tribes in the dispute and he was not in the claimants camp. We are friends with the claimants and therefore in the opponents eyes we are "with" the claimants. Ergo: "Bury it". The locals there have called the burial "Tribal Jealousy". People here in Australia (or anywhere else) who cannot visualise that, have never been to PNG...


To Wes: Yes, Wes... we'll be safe when we get there (God and Air Niugini willing that is). Thanks for the thought.

To LKinnon and aroa: Thanks for your good wishes.

Regards,

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[David Billings]

LiDAR Survey - 2018

We now look very likely to be in receipt of a LiDAR report will give us a picture of the Search Target Hill without the tree cover.

LiDAR is marvellous stuff and we have gone completely off the idea of magnetometer work in favour of LiDAR.

We will be able to see where the bulldozer made tracks and where it has been working on the hill, all over the hull..... but more importantly we should be able to see any ground disturbance which has altered the natural slope or contour of the hill.

I am still looking for funding to help us pay our way to be able to go again in June and on the website there is a PayPal button. If those that wished for a PayPal button could contribute a little of what they can afford, I will be thankful for that.

"Every little bit helps..."

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[David Billings]

Readers of this thread may be wondering why I have spent some 24 years on this project and have visited the jungle multiple times in search of the wreck seen in 1945 by members of an Australian Army Patrol… The veterans from that patrol were convinced that what they saw had been in the jungle for quite a few years. No military insignia was seen.

There are still many WWII aircraft which are missing in New Guinea now known as Papua New Guinea. Occasionally one of these missing WWII aircraft is found by the local people and notified to the authorities, These missing aircraft are mainly found by logging personnel or by local people out hunting game. Of late these missing aircraft are regarded as something from the past and the importance of reporting them in has diminished somewhat and sometimes, the owners of the land will now ask for money before they will lead researchers to them.

In the case of the aircraft wreck we seek, besides the WWII Patrol members who saw wreckage, only one local man has reported seeing it and he was the same man who it has been told to me, buried it with the help of the bulldozer he was using to make tracks through the forest. I have explained the tribal reason as to why he did that.

Our main evidence of the identity of the aircraft we seek, is that we have a WWII map used by the patrol which has indelible pencilled writing on the lower border of the map. The writing carried the Patrol “A1” identifier, tying the details of SITREPS (Situation Reports) to the actual patrol carried out. The writing also carries a reference “Ref: 600 H/P S3H1 C/N1055, 24/5/45”

The date in the reference was when the men of “D” Company 11th Battalion AIF, were waiting for a barge to take them up to the Unamitki River, where Japanese Troops had been reported. It is nearly five weeks after Patrol A1 was completed. An Officer from 13 Brigade HQ told the men that the U.S. Army had replied to their report of the find of a Pratt & Whitney engine in the jungle and he said, “The U.S. Army (which included the Army Air Force) have told us that the engine you saw is not one of theirs. It is a Wasp engine and they say it could possibly be from a Lockheed as Lockheed are big users of Pratt & Whitney engines.”

My attention was rivetted to the 600 H/P S3H1 C/N 1055.

A 600 Horsepower engine in WWII would be considered a “low power” engine. Most of the some 2000 U.S. Army aircraft (at one time) that were based in New Guinea during WWII were powered by engines which were anywhere in the 1200 to 2000 Horsepower or over range in power and it would be unusual for a 600 H.P. engine to be within 40 miles of Rabaul during WWII.

The rarity of S3H1 being mentioned on the map, as a "Civil" engine or "Commercial" engine as against an AN-1 "Military" engine demonstrates that this engine should not be there because there were no S3H1's in the region of New Guinea before or during WWII except for Earhart’s engines and she was supposedly lost in the Pacific. If the map had “600 H/P AN-1 C/N 1055”, I would be "interested " but not so certain that it is hers, that’s the point.

The C/N1055 is definitely the Construction Number of Earhart’s aircraft, without any doubt. Her Model 10E was the 55th Model 10 built, hence “1055”.

If we even forgot that the writing includes the “C/N1055”, the very fact of a "rare" S3H1 being there and found in WWII is very strange for a Civilian engine lost there would have come from a missing Civilian aircraft and there were no Civilian aircraft powered by two S3H1’s in New Guinea before or during WWII other than Earhart’s Electra model 10E.

The U.S. Army took a look at what they had and said, "Not one of ours" points to them seeing "S3H1" and recognising it as a Pratt & Whitney “Civil” engine. For if the U.S. Army had really thought about that there might very well have been a light bulb moment…. "Hey, hang on a minute there... wait a minute..." But... there was a war going on and it got overlooked.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[peterc005]

What is your reply regarding the observation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amelia_Earhart#Speculation_on_disappearance

"Pacific Wrecks, a website that documents World War II-era aircraft crash sites, notes that no Electra has been reported lost in or around Papua New Guinea. Gillespie wrote that the 2,000-mile (3,200 km) distance from Earhart's last known position to New Britain was impossible for the aircraft to fly, requiring more than 13 hours of flight when there were only four hours of fuel remaining"

http://pacificwrecks.com/aircraft/electra/earhart/

[David Billings]

Pacific Wrecks and Gillespie observations

I can show you an observation where Pacific Wrecks say B-17's are powered by P&W Wasps....

However, Pacific Wrecks, in this instance are correct. There is no documented case of an Electra aircraft being missing in or around PNG. The two Model 10A’s that were owned by Guinea Airways were in Australia during WWII and only one went up to New Guinea ferrying troops and supplies to the Dobodura strip when the battles at Buna, Gona and Sanananda were on. None of those Electra’s were lost in New Guinea.

In respect to the observation by Richard Gillespie, neither Gillespie or anyone else knows where the last known position of the Earhart Electra was and in clarification that should read: “The last known position in distance from LAE” to give the correct aspect on what we require to know. Gillespie “assumes” that because Earhart Tx’d “We must be on you but cannot see you” at 1912GMT, that she was on the sunline which went through Howland but that cannot be assumed. He goes into myriads of explanations of sunlines and flights on 157 True to get to Gardner Island but that is all a bunch of assumptions. If you study the works of Richard Gillespie, you will find that his assumptions are many and varied.

Obviously, they did not get to Howland so the navigation failed for whatever reasons, wind, cloud, mechanical problem, equipment failure and so on.

As to how the Electra would get back to ENB, that is contained in the Hypothesis side of the Project and explained on the website. I do go into a Hypothesis on the website, that when they encountered a 26 mph Easterly wind, there became a necessary change in the operation of the aircraft. I firmly believe, on what we do know of the timings and locations of the radio calls made that they ended up short of Howland. Fully written up in the website.

The Hypothesis is just that, a Hypothesis.

Many years ago, a TIGHAR member, Alan Caldwell an ex-USAF B-47 Pilot, said to me, "David, no-one knows where the aircraft got to or how far it went...".

That is correct for we just do not know and why we do not know is as follows:.

No-one knows what the actual wind value was and what the exact wind direction was on 2nd and 3rd July 1937...
No-one knows for sure what the exact route was and whether corners were cut or extended...
No-one knows for sure when the cloud cover started that would limit the Navigation...
No-one knows for sure, where on the track line between TABITEUEA Is. and HOWLAND Is. the Electra started the "Line of position" search...

What I do know from the Radio calls is that if they were at or overhead the S.S. Ontario at 1036 GMT, then they were late and that can be shown to be because of the Groundspeeds, which were low.

What I am simply trying to do is to locate that wreck which we now know is buried for it MUST be found to be able to say one way or the other, whether it is the Electra or not. I would rather concentrate on finding the wreck and then let the geniuses work out what went wrong and where they got to.

I believe, on the documentary evidence that it is the Electra. The fact that the USAAF "disowned" the wreck, the visual description of the wreck by the Vets that saw the engine and airframe fits with the Electra.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[rog747]

best of luck with the new research with the detectors

[peterc005]

I've read conflicting reports of what was seen by the digger during WW2.

One report was that an unpainted twin-engined plane wreckage was found, suggesting a basically complete airframe.

Another report was that only an engine was found, with the inference that this engine may have been from a B17 that came apart in flight.

Is your evidence that a complete airframe was found, or just an engine?

[rog747]

I've read conflicting reports of what was seen by the digger during WW2.

One report was that an unpainted twin-engined plane wreckage was found, suggesting a basically complete airframe.

Another report was that only an engine was found, with the inference that this engine may have been from a B17 that came apart in flight.

Is your evidence that a complete airframe was found, or just an engine?

best read this

https://earhartsearchpng.com/ this is daves show and his hypothesis

[David Billings]

Engine seen and the Airframe

I joined the Project in early 1994 after reading about a "possibility" that Earhart's Electra was on East New Britain. I contacted the lead Vet, Don Angwin. From speaking to him I gathered that the Patrol of 20 had seen "an engine". There were four Vets still breathing, who were members of the patrol. They had had the occasional reunion over the years and the subject of the "engine" had always been raised and the question was always "whose was it ?"

Where there is an engine 'loose' on the ground, the airframe will not be far away, that stands to reason.

Don had been sent the WWII Map by the former Company Clerk in late 1993 and had looked at it and then put it away with his papers. When I contacted him he searched for something to show me and pulled out the map intending to have it copied to send to me. He undid the masking tape and unfolded the edges and surprise! The writing came into view and he faxed a reduced copy of the map to me which is when my hair stood on end. There are lots of "ifs" in this life and the very fact that the map was to be burnt in Rabaul along with other discarded stuff, raises a whole bunch of "ifs".

The Patrol Leader, Lieutenant Ken Backhouse had never been to the unit reunions. That is not unusual. Men who have been through war want to forget it. Ken was not pure "Infantry". He had been serving in Australia in a Searchlight Unit as a Sergeant and had been commissioned as a Lieutenant and posted to the 11th Battalion AIF as a Company Section Leader. Not being pure "Infantry" he wasn't all together looked on as being an "Infantry" man and there was some friction.

In August '94, I went to Perth on business and met up with three of the Vets, Don, Roy and Ken. The fourth surviving Vet, Keith, lived on the East Coast and I went to see him in 1995. I went to lunch with the three Vets at the Casino in Perth. It was only the second or third time that Don and Roy had seen Ken since the war. Ken had just recovered from a by-pass operation and was not particularly perky. We started discussing the event and naturally raised the engine in discussion. It soon became apparent that Roy had not seen the engine, he had been on rearguard and had remained behind with his section and later walked through the site without seeing a thing. Then, Ken quietly said, "The rest of it is there as well, yes, the body of it is there, the aircraft".

The other two, Don and Roy were flabbergasted, they had not heard that before. Ken had left Keith at the engine and had walked on for about 30 yards to a vine and tree debris covered mound and had seen the airframe. When I saw Keith in 1995 he said that Ken had walked off for few minutes and then had come back to the engine and then had ordered the Patrol to move on, leaving the rearguard to sit it out for a time and then catch up with the Patrol. As the website relates, Ken was in a bit of trouble when they got back and was sent out on another patrol immediately. We do think that it was Keith who wrote the patrol report but he could not remember who actually wrote it.

Ken later described what he had seen of the airframe which is as written in the website. Keith was the person who looked over the engine and who removed the small metal tag from the engine mount, which had the "string of letters and numbers on it."

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[Sunfish]

'removed", "retrieved" the data plate? exactly how was this done, considering the only tool would be a .303 smle bayonet to chop through rivets? and not much time and no noise? where is the data plate, how is it secured and what does one look like?

...And considering also, when i was taught patrolling you never, ever, mark a map? or was this marked afterwards? while i hope for a happy ending to this quest, i'm skeptical.

[StickWithTheTruth]

Sunnyjim, your sense of observation astounds me... not much gets past you eh?

Except probably this: (luckily no bayonet required)

Before they left the site they retrieved a metal tag hanging by wire on an engine mount. The Australians reported their find and turned in the tag upon return to base. The tag has yet to be recovered from the maze of Australian and American archives, but the letters and numbers etched upon it were transcribed to a wartime map. The map, used by the same Australian unit, was rediscovered in the early 1990’s and revealed a notation “C/N 1055” and two other distinctive identifiers of Amelia Earhart’s Lockheed Electra Model 10E.

If I'm not mistaken, the map was marked on the extremities. Hardly call for a military court-marshal :-)

[David Billings]

Advisable to read the website

I am not really apologetic that the website is so comprehensive and therefore by the need to explain everything, "so long and time consuming" to read. People that are interested in the subject will spend the time to do that.

I didn't really know any other way to go about it, to encapsulate the project with all its' little bits and pieces into one whole piece that was easily readable and dealt with the find of the wreckage and the hypothesis of what could have happened. As I have said many times it is the find in 1945 and how it got missed because everyone was busy that intrigued me right from the start. What really amazes me is that we have the WWII Map with the writing, "at all". That is purely due to the many "ifs" in the story.

However, in saying that it got missed, I do believe that one intelligent man in the Australian Army did catch on to whose aircraft it might be and that was Captain John Wesley Mott who appears in the story as the 13 Brigade Staff Officer in charge of topography. Captain Mott had been in the First World War and had gained a Military Medal as a Sergeant and had been given a Field Commission and went on to become a Captain.

When WWII started Mott volunteered for service again but was refused enlistment because he was too valuable as a Surveyor. Mott surveyed most of North Queensland and the Northern territory and there is a "Mott Street" in Darwin. Mott pestered the Army until they finally took him on in his old rank of Captain and sent him up to Jaquinot Bay to 5th Division HQ. Mott angled his way up to the fighting zone at Wide Bay and he was there to meet Patrol A1 when it got back to base on the evening of 18th April '45.

Captain Mott wanted to know where they had been and what the topography was like and he also wanted to know "where" this aircraft wreckage was located but they could not specifically tell him, or at least The Patrol Lieutenant couldn't point to the map and say "There". That led to an argument between Mott and the C.O of "D" Company, an officer of equal rank, Captain Gieckie. Being a Staff Officer, Mott won.

As a result, Ken Backhouse was sent on another patrol almost straight away and was not at the "D" Company Base at KALAI when two U.S. Army Officers came to talk to him about the wreck they had seen.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[currawong]

I don't have a horse in this race but it would be a great thing if he is right.

To that end, good luck to you Mr Billings.

However I do question the tag/ dataplate.

Hanging by lockwire on a component in service?

That would be odd.

[StickWithTheTruth]

I don't have a horse in this race but it would be a great thing if he is right.

To that end, good luck to you Mr Billings.

However I do question the tag/ dataplate.

Hanging by lockwire on a component in service?

That would be odd.

Clearly Currawong, like Sunfish, you haven't read the website either :-)

I read it perhaps 2-3 years ago on David's website and without referring back to it now, I believe that the plate was a service tag which is presumed to have been attached when the aircraft had an engine o/h / removal after the Hawaii groundloop... testing my memory now and I'm sure David will chime in if I'm horribly wrong :-)

[David Billings]

David Billings "Chiming in"

SWTT is perfectly correct in saying "service tag" which is what I am putting forward as a "Repair Tag" as the reason for the Metal Tag held on by wire to the engine mount tube.

Currawong is also correct in it being "odd" that it was on a supposedly serviceable component.

Pilots and other Aircrew (except for Flight Engineers) would not really comprehend that this tag would be a "Repair Tag". I have spent nearly all of my Aviation Engineering career caring about "Airworthiness" and I had the same thoughts as Curra as it being "odd" that a metal tag was held on by wire to the engine mount tubing carrying both Engine and Airframe details..... but then I remembered (the light bulb went on) that the No. 2 Engine mount had been completedly replaced with a new mount after the Groundloop at Ford Island in March '37 (see picture on website), but the No. 1 Engine Mount had been repaired as information came my way that this mount had been damaged but had been repairable.

The picture of the result of the groundloop at Ford Island, shows the No. 1 Engine to be only slightly out of line whereas the No. 2 is looking at the roof and has a large pool of oil underneath from the ruptured oil tank behind the engine.

Repairing a steel tube truss is by Oxy/Acetylene Gas Welding and it is standard practice in Aircraft Engineering to use a scrap of metal out of the Sheetmetal Shop to stamp or engrave details on it, if it is going for flame welding. Obviously you do not use a card tag where flame is around. Punch or drill a hole in the tag and tie it by lockwire to the steel that is to be welded.

Incidentally, a "Repair Tag" is one of the only Hangar or Line documents where details of the component come together with the Airframe details, in this case, Engine Details with Airframe details.

All that would be required by Lockheed to identify the Mount would be (because they used a few different engines on the Model 10), the Horsepower Rating, The Engine type and the owner of the Mount. I doubt very much that a repair shop for engine mounts was flooded with mounts for repair in 1937... so only basic data on the Metal Tag backed up by the purchase Order from Lockheed carrying more detail and the mount sent off.

Nowadays Repair Tags need to be filled out with much more information than a patient going for a by-pass but that's the modern way.

When it got back to Lockheed, they fitted it and some kind fella left the tag on there. That's another one of these "ifs" which abound in this project. If it hadn't been left on the Mount we wouldn't know Sweet Fanny Adams.....

Do Repair Tags get left on Components ? Not normally, and even if they do, the Aircraft Records Section notifies Line (or rather QA notify Line) to find the tag and send it to Records. In my time at Air Niugini, for instance maybe we had to send out Inspection Notices to retrieve tags maybe five times in the ten years I was there. We were "pretty good" at catching things there.... At other places, well very few. The last one at PX I remember very well because the hangar engineers left a Repair Tag in the poly envelope on a brake unit they had changed and it began to smoke when they towed the F28 to Line. So, the leaving of Repair Tags on components after fitment does happen.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[David Billings]

Map Analysis and the AIF Unit

No, the map has not been subjected to forensic analysis. On advice i was told they would not be able to subject it to sufficient accuracy to delineate 1945....or a later year, if that was the reason for your question. It was only that they could give a broad brush span of some fifty years or so, which would be meaningless.

Don Angwin had it covered in that clear sticky stuff also...

The Map original resides in a bank, I only have a copy.

The writing is slightly purplish in colour indicating Indelible Pencil... the kind of pencil your Mother smacked you for if you licked it due to the Lead content. Indelible pencil was widely used in the 40's... I can remember it well. People licked the point to make a darker script. Something happened to your tongue as a result, I believe.

Their unit was the 11th Battalion AIF, "D" Company. I have been to the AWM twice and I have had a professional search also. No more then we have now.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[Sunfish]

Good luck with your search.

[currawong]

Stick - I know what a service tag is.

I now challenge you to find an operational aircraft with one hanging off it.

Airflow/vibration makes short work of them and then they become FOD.

Which is why they are removed prior to the aircraft returning to service.

Normally that is, unless some oversight has occurred on the part of several people.

[StickWithTheTruth]

Perhaps they hadn't thought much about the longevity of service tags flapping in the breeze in 1936/37.

[David Billings]

Further Explanation...

I think the significance or the “uniqueness” of the cryptic reference on the map that we have is being missed. At the riskof being a BOS, one further explanation is therefore tendered…

On site, at the wreck in the Jungle and where the engine was situated, the Warrant Officer on the patrol removed a metal tag hanging by tied wire to the engine mount tubing behind the engine. He removed the metal tag. He looked at it and saw that it had a "string of letters and numbers on it" (his words). This code did not mean anything to him but he considered it may lead to the knowledge of who owned the aircraft engine. He therefore put the metal tag in his shirt pocket and later handed it in with the Patrol Report. The report of the find was sent by Army channels to the U.S. Army, because the members of the patrol that examined the engine had seen "Pratt & Whitney" and therefore considered that the engine was American and that it has been laying in the jungle for some time.

Five weeks later, a message that had come back from the U.S. Army, was read out to "D" Company men of the 11th Battalion AIF, that the engine did not belong to the U.S. Army. At that time the men of "D" Company were assembled at TOL Plantation and someone wrote down details that transpired, on to a map border which included references to SITREPS from the "A1" Patrol and also carried a "Ref:" written as "600H/P S3H1 C/N1055". The date 24/5/45 is also written.

I don't think that people are catching on to the significance of the writing on the map and perhaps I have not explained in entirety, so let us look at that again....

We have 600H/P S3H1 C/N1055 and this information is cryptic code which can be understood by an aviation person to be in reference to both an engine and to another number which maybe could be construed as the serial number of the engine. It maybe contains a mistake in that it should read S/N (Serial No.) 1055. That serial number would be a very early model of the Wasp so had this engine found in 1945, come from an aircraft made in the early 1930’s and was now somewhere crashed in this part of “New Guinea” ?

This is not likely, as the Australian Government rule at the time was that only “British” aircraft could be imported into Australia and most aircraft up until the advent of the purchase of two Lockheed Electra 10A Models by Guinea Airways had all been British in origin.

We then have to read the C/N as meaning something else and the only thing that fits, aviation wise, is “Construction Number”

We are seeing 600 H.P. which is a Horsepower rating.

Now, with the “S3H1”, we know we are looking at an identifier indicating a Pratt & Whitney R-1340 S3H1 Model, of the "Wasp" engine. However, when we look up the S3H1 Model we find that it is rated at 550 H.P. using 87 Octane gasoline, but the cryptic code says the rating is 600 H.P. how can that be ?

By 1994 as written in an earlier post, I knew that the aircraft wreckage itself was also on site… that there was not “just” an engine as previously thought, the airframe was there also and we had already considered the “possibility” that the wreckage could be that of the Lockheed Electra belonging to Amelia Earhart.

Earhart’s engines were S3H1 engines which is the same engine as the “Military” designated AN-1 Wasp, but the S3H1 is the “Civilian” or “Commercial” designation and her engines were 600 H.P. Rated for take-off because she used 100 Octane gasoline at take-off. Lockheed documentation written in 1936 for the ”Long Range” version of the Model 10E states that the S3H1 engines used are rated at 600 H.P.. Not until 1941 did Pratt & Whitney raise the 550 HP. Rating to 600 H.P. when 100 Octane become more freely available

At that time then, in 1937 when the Electra was lost, the combination of 600 Horsepower and S3H1 said in 1936 for the Earhart engines was correct and C/N 1055 is certainly the Lockheed number for Earhart’s aircraft as it was the 55th Model 10 built or “constructed”, hence “1055”

We know that after the disastrous ground loop at Ford Island, in March 1937, that Lockheed supplied one brand new engine mount for the No.2 engine. The mount for the No. 1 engine was repaired and “aviation sense and procedure”, says that a Metal Tag showing details of where the engine mount “came from and what it was for” would be used as identifiers on that Tag before the engine mount was sent out for repair together with the Repair Order paperwork. What was most probably seen then, on that day , the 17th April 1945, was that they were looking at the detached left hand or "No.1 Engine" lying on the jungle floor, the unpainted aircraft without any markings seen, lay 30 yards away...

We know Earhart left LAE at 10 a.m. (0000GMT) on the morning of 2nd July 1937. We do not know where her location was when she radioed, “Must be on you but cannot see you” at 1912 GMT nor do we know where she was at the supposed 2014 GMT “last” transmission when she said she was changing to the frequency 6210 Kcs.

We know that an Australian Army patrol in April 1945, came upon wreckage in the jungle in East New Britain. As described above, the evidence points to this wreckage being the Earhart Electra.

David Billings

[Cazalet33]

The Australian Army Patrol A1 commencing on the 15th April 1945 did find an all-metal unpainted twin-engined aircraft with Pratt & Whitney Wasp engines, that is the fact.

In that environment, in those circumstances, how the hell did they they find enough data to conclude that they had not discovered a quad instead of a twin in the known vicinity of a crashed B-17?

[David Billings]

How did they know it was a Twin and not a "Quad"...

...in the known vicinity of a crashed B-17... Cazalet33 asks....

On the website and on this thread, I have stated that the patrol Lieutenant, Ken Backhouse, saw the airframe and it had one engine on wing... the other engine being on the ground 30 yards away. That makes it a Twin.

I agree it is pretty thick in there, vision in some parts is five feet.... in fact it is the 2nd worst Jungle I have been into out of the Malay Jungle, the Borneo Jungle, and even a Moss forest does not compete... the Singapore one up the Bukit Mandai in 1966 being the worst I have been into, but that one has been fixed by applying a Housing Estate....

I saw what remains of the Captain Harl Pease B-17 in the year 2000 after it was re-discovered by the local Pomio people in the employ of the Open Bay Timber Co.. It has no engines fitted upon the two remaining inboard nacelle stubs on the Centre Wing section (No's 2 & 3 positions) The Port and Stbd. Intermediate wing sections are missing (which carried the No's 1 & 4 engines), as are the Port and Stbd Outer Wing panels. There are no Wright Cyclone engines in the vicinity of the main wreckage. One Cyclone was in the Mumus River (now gone) and one Outer Wing panel lies in the Mumus River Valley as does the complete empennage. There is no Cockpit section, it broke off at the production joint and it was found in 1947 but I do not know where.

So we are back to an unpainted, all-metal twin-engined aircraft without any military insignia with a Wasp engine off-wing and another engine on-wing.

Are there any suggestions that anyone can make as to what that aircraft could be ?

I myself have searched for a legitimate answer to this question of an aircraft with R-1340 S3H1's and the only one that comes close (besides an Electra 10E) is the Boeing 247 of which some civilian examples were seconded into Military service in WWII and these had a mix of S1H1 and AN-1 engines. None were sent to New Guinea and if they had been they would be camo painted with military insignia and even then unlikely to be sent anywhere near to Rabaul.

[Deaf]

Further Explanation...
This is not likely, as the Australian Government rule at the time was that only “British” aircraft could be imported into Australia and most aircraft up until the advent of the purchase of two Lockheed Electra 10A Models by Guinea Airways had all been British in origin.

David Billings

Papua was an Australian Territory, New Guinea was a Mandated Territory. Different Rules and different capitals Port Moresby and Rabaul. The heavy aircraft on the Lae Bulolo route were German Junkers

[David Billings]

...most aircraft were British

Deaf... Good point... and correct about the Junkers G31's... which is why I said 'most aircraft were British'. As is known, Levien faced argument and opposition to bringing the "American" Electra 10A's into Guinea Airways, but won out in the end.

...and in respect to all the Electra 10A's and 10B's that did enter Australia....and of the single 10A that was based in LAE and then went out and back into New Guinea during WWII, all can be accounted for, none crashed in New Guinea. All those had P&W R-985's or Wright 975 radials.

David Billings

[Global Aviator]

Have enjoyed reading this thread and wish you the best of luck David.

I haven’t read the entire thread so apologies if already mentioned.

Amelia was a pioneer someone important to aviation, why do you have to call for donations? Look at the size of aviation now, why hasn’t someone stepped up and assisted. Dick Smith, Richard Branson, John Travolta. If I had real coin behind me the hey me! Alas I don’t, however I will get around to a small donation.

Avation pioneers deserve the best, has anything ever been done at Oshkosh in regard to this search?

I say well done regardless, what a fantastic cause and I only wish I had the time to join you in the jungle!

[David Billings]

In response to Global Aviator…

Global Aviator asks several questions which I will answer here…

1. Why do I have to call for donations ?

The answer to that is simple, it is very expensive to get to site. I am now retired and have already put in around $120,000 Australian and in the past I have received about $50,000 in funding. I find that my retirement needs what money I have left when called upon to pay my normal bills… Electricity.. Car registration, Rates, etc, etc.

When I lived in PNG and worked for Air Niugini the expense was not so bad, the team could stay at my place before and after the flight to Rabaul, we could package up a few rations and take that with us and hop straight into a helicopter at Rabaul and be on site in the same day, I paid all that. Doing it from Australia is a lot more expensive with the airfares and hotels involved, I paid that too. To cut down the expense we started going by outboard powered banana boats but that was really quite dangerous. We did that 4 to 5 hour trip over the rough sea on about five occasions. Last year we used vehicles because logging tracks had been linked up and 160 Kilometres could possibly be done in four hours (we thought) by 4wd vehicles. It actually took seven hours and involved three rivers to ford, the widest and deepest had water up to the hoods on the three standard Toyota Hilux vehicles…. But we made it. We cant do that again until that river is bridged.

Basically, it is a very difficult place to get to by sea or by tracks and we have to go back to using a helicopter. At US$2000 per hour plus fuel we usually need two runs in and one out for the team of five because that takes at least 4.5 Flight hours.

Only one run out is needed simply because we have to leave everything we took in. Consequently, I have innumerable cookpots, blue tarpaulins, bush knives, plastic chairs, tents and at least three small generator sets and a small chainsaw down there which belong to me, but I cannot depend on seeing them ever again, or in what condition they would be in anyway, so each time requires the buying of new items.

Each visit nowadays costs in the region of US$20,000-$25,000 for a team of four to five. Last year there were ten of us and going by road with three vehicles (without the cost of some airfares from the U.S.) cost about $40,000 Australian.

2. Why hasn’t someone stepped up and assisted ?

You got me there… There are an awful lot of people who are interested in this project. When I opened up this “zombie” thread again after yet another year, 350 views were made on average each hour for four hours

Currently, in 10 days there have been 6050 views over a total of 230 hours at an average of 26 views per hour.

When I started the new website in early 2016, I started getting responses by email and on this very forum thread saying, “Put a PayPal button on your website.” That was done. Did I receive any donations through the PayPal button (?), yes I did, about three over a year or so ago and they were from people I have known for a long time. The last single donation was about 9-months ago from a fellow “ex-Brat” (ex-R.A.F. Apprentice) from the 88th Entry. I was in the 84th Entry. I can’t recall any donations from people who have written upon this Forum saying, “…add a Paypal button”… so, I might as well remove it for it has not brought forth the verbal pledges I assumed in the words written. I must have assumed wrongly.

As for Dick Smith, Sir Richard Branson or John Travolta…. Yes, I have written to all three plus many, many more. Dick Smith was busy making jam. Sir Richard Branson’s office replied that he was busy flying a balloon. There was another attempt by a friend of mine from when we were Flight Engineers in the R.A.F. He had flown as an F/E on the Virgin 747 Classics and had known Sir Richard…. That didn’t work either. Travolta never answered the Mail… Seemingly “celebrities” are not interested. It would make a wonderful film but Mel Gibson didn't reply either.

I did visit the U.S. Embassy in Port Moresby and I did speak with someone from the Military Attaches Office but nothing came of that either. Ideally, I would like a Bell Huey and 50 Grunts to be there… and for them to bring plenty of their wonderful ration packs…!

3. Has anything been done at Oshkosh in regard to this search ?

I am afraid not. I can’t afford that kind of trip.

Thank you for the comments.

David Billings

[greg47]

David sounds like your having a lot of fun. How do you explain the one way radio contact from the Electra. There was no mention of turning back

[David Billings]

The Website, Part 7, includes:

"The Contingency Plan"

Greg47 says: "David sounds like your having a lot of fun. How do you explain the one way radio contact from the Electra. There was no mention of turning back"

Greg, when you read the website, you must have missed out that her Receiver system was cactus and also you seem to have missed the opening subject of Part 7.

It seems to be a common failing. Some people seem to have missed the whole content of the website when they read it.

As for Earhart not mentioning a turn back in her radio calls, there were lots of other things you would expect to hear in radio calls made on a long distance flight, such as "Correct position and time at that position" calls; "Fuel state" updates; "Wx conditions" and "Whether a speed mentioned" is IAS,TAS or G/S and which nominate it is in either of Statute MPH, Knots, Furlongs per Week or Leagues per Fortnight.

If the British manufacturer of lighting equipment on Motor Vehicles named "LUCAS" is colloquially known as "Lucas, the Prince of Darkness", then surely Earhart should also be known as "Earhart, the Princess of Silence"...

I rest my case and repeat the website: www.earhartsearchpng.com

David Billings

[Cazalet33]

Her penultimate call stated her belief that she was near her destination and that she had less than an hour's worth of fuel.

No chance of a div to PNG, a thousand miles away, then.

The Billings search of the B-17 crash site for the missing four engines is noble, but quite irrelevant to the Earhart case in reality.

[David Billings]

...Range rears it's head...

WE positively do not know how far the Electra travelled from LAE.
WE also are not 100% sure which way it went.
WE assume it headed for Howland and that is a reasonable assumption.
WE do not know where it was when the supposed last call was made at 2014 GMT.

Cazalet33 says:

"Her penultimate call stated her belief that she was near her destination and that she had less than an hour's worth of fuel."

The key words there are: "her belief". That is completely and exactly correct, her 1912 GMT call, "Must be on you but cannot see you", gives affirmation that she only 'thought' she was at or lateral to Howland but there is absolutely no proof that she was there at all

There is even variance on that statement in the USCG Records ... However, it is recorded she said, "Only a half-hour of fuel left...", but then after an hour was back on the Radio. Consensus of opinion is that she meant .."Only a half-hour of fuel before I get down to my reserve." If she had a Contingency Plan then it stands to reason that she had a reserve... An amount of fuel to a contents figure that she could not go below because at that figure she had to invoke the Contingency Plan.

No-one has any idea what the upper winds were through the night where from indications in the radio calls there was upper level cloud..."Overcast" making Noonan's task very difficult, without a groundspeed figure to go on, it is entirely possible that he had no real idea where they were, hence "Must be on you"... a hopeful statement.

"No chance of a div to PNG, a thousand miles away, then."

From The Gilberts it is...

"The Billings search of the B-17 crash site for the missing four engines is noble, but quite irrelevant to the Earhart case in reality."

I don't quite get what you mean there or what you are angling at... I haven't searched for the other three Wright Cyclones. The one I have seen was hiding in plain sight in the Mumus River and was seen way before I visited (was guided to) the Fuselage remnant of the B-17.

[Cazalet33]

her 1912 GMT call, "Must be on you but cannot see you", gives affirmation that she only 'thought' she was at or lateral to Howland but there is absolutely no proof that she was there at all
Agreed. She very clearly was not above or near Howland, or she'd have seen the huge smoke plume from Itasca. She was short of there, by many dozens of miles. If she'd overflown, she'd have seen the smoke. Ergo: she did not get that far, or was wildly off-track (or perhaps both).

She certainly pursued her belief that she could find the island for as long as her few remaining tens of minutes of fuel dwindled.

No indication of an intent, or ability, to divert many many hundreds of miles to a night-time landing in the jungly mountains of PNG.

I haven't searched for the other three Wright CyclonesYour self-appointed search area is that of the B-17 crash. You are competent to find the other three B-17 engines in your search area.

Go get 'em!

[joe crazyhorse]

She certainly pursued her belief that she could find the island for as long as her few remaining tens of minutes of fuel dwindled.

No indication of an intent, or ability, to divert many many hundreds of miles to a night-time landing in the jungly mountains of PNG.



I couldn't agree more. History has shown time and again, when an aviator becomes lost with no fuel and no plan, they wander around in an erratic fashion in an effort to make sense of their confusion, right up to the point that the empty fuel tanks make a final decision for them.

I have no dog in this fight, I say more power to anyone who wishes to explore the unknown, even if only for the sake of exploration itself. If some sort of lost wreck can be found and remains laid to rest then all the better.

[StickWithTheTruth]

History has shown time and again, when an aviator becomes lost with no fuel and no plan, they wander around in an erratic fashion in an effort to make sense of their confusion, right up to the point that the empty fuel tanks make a final decision for them.

A bingo fuel situation is vastly different to what you have described above. If you know your range and your reserves and you can't find your destination, you turn around and return to your last or a known good / findable location.

Especially when ditching would likely mean imminent death.

[Global Aviator]

A bingo fuel situation is vastly different to what you have described above. If you know your range and your reserves and you can't find your destination, you turn around and return to your last or a known good / findable location.

Especially when ditching would likely mean imminent death.

In today’s aviation easy! GPS, but back then......

I’m lucky I’m old enough to have flown pre GPS but still with relatively modern means and certainly no loooooooooong overwater sextant stars or whatever style of navigation. As has been said, cloudy, different winds, even well whatever.

Look at MH 370 and that’s this century and still can’t find it and it WAS under positive radar control for a while and who knows how much longer than we have ever been told.

Keep cracking and as said above finding any wreck is worthwhile. Theory’s are just that until proven otherwise, simple solution here is help raise money to find this PNG wreck! No harm no foul.

[David Billings]

What has the B-17 got to do with it ?

Cazalet33 seems fixated on the B-17

He says: "Your self-appointed search area is that of the B-17 crash. You are competent to find the other three B-17 engines in your search area. Go get 'em!"

Once again, Thou art speaking in riddles...

I have never "self-appointed" the Harl Pease B-17 41-2429 crash site as my search area. It is near, maybe a mile away. I have no idea where you got that from and I am also not looking for, nor have I ever looked for, the three remaining Cyclones. If I bump into one I''ll be sure to let you know.

I just think you are trying to wind me up. Hint...It's not working.

[David Billings]

Remains laid to rest

Joe Crazyhorse says: "If some sort of lost wreck can be found and remains laid to rest then all the better."

Exactly

David Billings

[rog747]

Dave certainly has the credibility of the Oz army report and that of the Vet who was there and the map/message that indicates an a/c and engine was found there by the clearing patrol in 1945 and that has some relationship to the lost electra of AE hence Dave's passion in trying to locate what's left of it

it is a fascinating story I cannot understand why major funding for this search has not come forward


my only observations are that long wave radio signals picked up days after the a/c went missing were heard by a young girl a HAM operator in florida who says she heard a woman's voice saying they were injured plus something something sounding like ''new york city''
well an island nearby to Howland had a 1929 large wreck on the beach/reef called the SS Norwich City
that then goes back to the theory she crash landed on the reef and was quoting the vessel that was near her
the island was Gardner island

[David Billings]

"..Now, darn it, you've dang gone and dun it....

I think Walter Brennan said that in the film “Red River’”

Now, Rog747, you have opened up a can of worms bigger than several oil storage tanks....

I do not really want to discuss Gardner Island because, to me and as has been indicated by the "Must be on you but cannot see you" Radio call of 1912 GMT, the Pilot of the Electra made an indication that tells us she was unsure of their position.

After I have said my piece, I will not feel the need to discuss it again….

What I will say first is that the 157 and 337 degrees which are mentioned in this total “Sunline theory to Gardner Island” are TRUE degrees.

Next, I will mention that the GC MAG steer to Howland from a position around Tabiteuea Island over the last 600 miles is 068 degrees and the wind forecast was from the NE. If Fred had the Electra steering 067 degrees allowing 1 degree of layoff, then a “Line of Position” at 90 degrees to the track line has to be 157-337 Magnetic degrees (not True degrees). Remember Earhart did not say “Sunline” she said “Line”.

Being that the pilot indicated doubt inherent of their position in relation to Howland, she then has to attempt “a search”, after all, she has indicated that she “thinks” they are there at Howland or lateral to it.. Don’t forget, that “We” know about the smoke from the ITASCA, she does not.

She then commenced a line search on 157 and on 337 (but we do not know which way she went “first”), which, if we are to say the search took one hour until 2014 GMT, then the most the Electra could have flown in time up the line or down the line from the mid-point of the track line would be 15 minutes, up and back down and down and back up…. making 4 x 15 minute runs, totaling one hour.

Incidentally, as I say, we do not know whether she went first to the North or first to the South. If Fred had used an offset approach then obviously the initial turn would be “to the South”. This is an important point, because if the first turn is made to the South, then the Line search would have be done to the North as the second "go" and if the Electra has to end up on Gardner, then they would go over an area already covered by the first "southern" direction.

Bear with me for the next is a long sentence.....

When I was flying in a Crew, I am damn sure that, even though we also carried a Navigator and due to circumstance, the navigation had failed, if it was known that we did not know where we were on a track line and it had been suggested to me that we head off for three hours into the unknown to a group of scattered islands which would be easy to miss from a position on a track line of which we were unsure….. and in the knowledge that on our reciprocal track there was a long line of islands at right angles to that reciprocal; which would be hard to miss, then, I would have strongly objected to heading off into the unknown instead of turning back on that reciprocal.

For, verily, to drone on for three hours toward the unknown on 157, is a hare-brained idea.

It will never be able to be explained to me why it is sensible to drone on for three or more hours on a fixed line, searching for land in a pack of widely scattered islands, from an unknown position on a track line.

In any case, due to the efforts of other researchers who persisted in the endeavour to find it… we now know that Earhart did have a Contingency Plan “to return to The Gilberts”.

David Billings

[joe crazyhorse]

When I was flying in a Crew, I am damn sure that, even though we also carried a Navigator and due to circumstance, the navigation had failed, if it was known that we did not know where we were on a track line and it had been suggested to me that we head off for three hours into the unknown to a group of scattered islands which would be easy to miss from a position on a track line of which we were unsure….. and in the knowledge that on our reciprocal track there was a long line of islands at right angles to that reciprocal; which would be hard to miss, then, I would have strongly objected to heading off into the unknown instead of turning back on that reciprocal.

For, verily, to drone on for three hours toward the unknown on 157, is a hare-brained idea.

It will never be able to be explained to me why it is sensible to drone on for three or more hours on a fixed line, searching for land in a pack of widely scattered islands, from an unknown position on a track line.

In any case, due to the efforts of other researchers who persisted in the endeavour to find it… we now know that Earhart did have a Contingency Plan “to return to The Gilberts”.


I think that the biggest hurdle for this theory is that you are applying sound logic, good decision making skills and CRM to a scenario that involved a person behind the controls that lacked all of these attributes. It is difficult to reconcile the idea that she would suddenly start making sound decisions against a history of having a cavalier attitude to piloting an aircraft. To say the least AE was reckless and impatient. She was someone for whom admitting defeat by turning around would have been far too humiliating for her inflated celebrity.

That said, I spent a significant period of time many years ago flying low and slow over, around and onto that part of PNG, and spent an inordinate amount of time looking down in a vain effort to catch the faintest glint of something that might resemble that described by the fabled army patrol and their magnificent map.

So my hypocrisy knows no bounds. ;)

[David Billings]

"Flying low and slow over.... around that part of PNG..."

Joe Crazyhorse: If you did that after around mid-1996 you were "in the dark" just as we were "in the dark" then, up until 2011 when we started to hear that it had been buried on purpose.

It is a cruel thing to find out, I can assure you, that when you hear of that event caused by tribalism and possibly dislike of "other folk" it is a daunting prospect to contemplate. However, then in 2011, the truth won out eventually. The Tolai Brother-in-Law of the Baining bulldozer driver held the secret and felt bad abut the fact that we kept going back. His Christian beliefs came to the fore and he started to tell the Pomio man that he knew and who knew us, what had actually happened.

I have the utmost respect for Tribal beliefs and Customs but I will say that a couple of the Bainings that I have met have been truculent and a little hard to deal with. Against that, the Pomios are happy and easy to get along with.

The news was daunting because it meant that every expedition we had made since 1996 was completely wasted except for our knowledge of the area and experiences. Over such an important subject matter that bit deep.

I hear what you say about the actual Pilot's tendencies and agree there was an amount if irrational behaviour. That is why, as I say in the website, in the knowledge of the groundspeeds obtained up and until the S.S. Ontario; it does not make sense that Earhart could be anywhere near to Howland at 1912 GMT.

David Billings

[greg47]

ill bet you AUD$10000 youll never find Erharts electra in East new Britian

[David Billings]

Greg47: I'll bet you $10 you don't contribute to anything....

Thousands bet the Americans wouldn't land a man on the moon...

Greg47: Have you given any glimmer of thought then, with all that has been said.... as to "whose" aircraft it would be then ?

I would really, really, be interested in your response..... Name the type, Nationality and the engines fitted to the choice of aircraft you consider the Diggers saw in 1945.

[greg47]

I have no idea. She was transmitting she was being received but could not receive due to the incorrect coil loading for the antenna. Both new no morse.Its undisputed surely she arrived at the general location of howland. The fuel had been sitting for some time in lae ,it does deteriate . temperature reduces sg. Power is a function of mass. She had a maximum of an hour when she commenced her search along the nth south line.

[greg47]

David im sure your genuine, but your barking up the wrong tree

[StickWithTheTruth]

David im sure your genuine, but your barking up the wrong tree

Greg47, how do you explain the matching serial number? This isn't an episode of Lost, the diggers wrote down the details.

[mgahan]

David im sure your genuine, but your barking up the wrong tree

With a bit more direct information from David, quite a bit in fact, I posted this in 2016 : https://www.pprune.org/9574746-post91.html.


MJG
Still waiting for my numbers to appear on the winning list each Sunday.

[David Billings]

She only had an hour left...

Greg47 says: "She had a maximum of an hour when she commenced her search along the nth south line."

To be able to say specifically that the Electra had a maximum of one hour fuel left under the circumstance quoted above, Greg47 must have done fuel work participate to the usage by Earhart as the manager of the engines. Other researchers say she had four hours of fuel remaining after the line search was completed , which completion, we do assume was at 2014 GMT.

I am not going to ask Greg47 how he came to that conclusion for no doubt he will not answer.

It is a little indeterminate exactly how much fuel the Electra did carry for most state "1100 US Gallons" and to add to that we have Robert Iredale in Lae who supplied the fuel saying he topped off all tanks before they left, meaning there would be 1151 USG total on engines start. Even that 40 gallons after the ground usage in taxying would add another hour at Cruise Power to Greg47's one hour.

Was 2014 GMT the last Tx made by Earhart ? I think it unlikely and Itasca going frantic on the radio may have blocked her short transmissions but as written in the website, Fred Goerner wrote in his book of a US Navy signal where a call was heard by Nauru which can be timed at 2200 GMT of: "Land in sight ahead", which would fit very nicely with a sighting of The Gilberts or one of the two islands before The Gilberts on activating her Contingency Plan. That would mean 2.5 Hours after 1912 GMT., on Greg47's figuring...

Getting back to the aircraft type.... if the wreck was not the Electra. Can anyone suggest an aircraft which would fit the bill... Any aircraft with P&W engines can be called out as the culprit and we will deal with each one.

The weirdest aircraft that has been mentioned so far (a few years ago) was the German Dornier Do17 (the fabled "Flying Pencil")....that, by an ex-Colonel of the USAF, no less. Can anyone find a weirder and more eligible aircraft than that ?

[David Billings]

Food for Thought

I see no-one has ventured to provide a possibility of another type aircraft being lodged in the jungle as an alternate to an Electra 10E after over 350 views of the thread, since I posted the request for readers to do so if they wished…..

In regard to “possible” other aircraft types that the wreck “may be”, I recently went through the list again. I followed the Pratt & Whitney website which lists the Aircraft Types that Wasps were fitted to (all designations of Wasps that is) and I also followed the Wikipedia site which has the subject of P & W Wasp and which also contains list of aircraft types. I came to the same conclusion that I came to many years ago that there is no alternative aircraft type which could fit the wreck powered by two R1340 S3H1 “Civil” or “Commercial” engines as against the “Military” designation of AN-1.

The nearest example of an aircraft type that comes close is the Boeing Model 247 but it was powered by the R-1340 S1H1 or the AN-1 Wasp. There is no mention of S3H1’s being used to power the Boeing 247. The USAAF did use 27 of them which were impressed into service but 19 of those were returned “Surplus to Requirements” in 1944. No knowledge of what happened to the other eight…. (possible losses ?) but it does not fit anyway. In any case if used it would be camouflage painted. I can find no record of the type in New Guinea.

I also want to openly discuss here an alternative explanation of how “600 H.P. S3H1 C/N1055” came to be on the map. I do this so as to “get it out of the way” in case it is raised. This alternative explanation was given by “the Historic Aircraft Recovery Forum ” many years ago and the writer wrote that “The Americans” gave “The Australian Army” those numbers and letters as a means of identifying the wreckage they had seen in case it was Earhart’s.

Now before I discuss this, I will take you back to when I interviewed the man who found the Metal Tag: Keith Nurse. Keith said that when he found the tag hanging by wire from the engine mount tubing at the back of the detached engine, he took it off the tubing and looked at it and what he saw was “a string of letters and numbers” which did not mean anything to him so he put the tag in his shirt pocket, intending to hand it in with the patrol report. So, that little thought of: “a string of letters and numbers” was in his mind, on site, before any news was given to their Unit that they had found aircraft wreckage.

Now, if “the Americans” had received information about an engine being found and had NOT been sent “600 H/P S3H1 C/N1055” and then considered in the knowledge that the engine was just a “Pratt & Whitney engine” as the Warrant Officer had said he saw Pratt & Whitney somewhere but could not remember precisely where. Why then would the Americans Army say the engine was a “Wasp”, as they had done back in a signal to the Australian Unit….and it was not one of theirs. That is strange because the USAAF were using P&W Engines in New Guinea on many types of aircraft, they must have been sent some detail which allowed them to identify the engine as a "Wasp" and not a "Twin Wasp" as this was the powerplant for several aircraft types in use in New Guinea.

“IF” they had considered that it could be Earhart’s aircraft what would they do and what would they give as a request in any return signal ?

I suggest that if this thought had occurred in the minds of the American Military, they would gather information about the Earhart Electra and give as much detail as they could concerning salient features which would provide sufficient detail for the Australian Unit to properly identify the wreck and this would be accompanied by a request that if possible the Australian Unit go back and relocate the wreck and provide an answer for the American Military. IF that return back to find it was not possible, then the U.S. Army would send someone themselves.

IF the American Military did this, what would those details of the Aircraft encompass ?

I suggest the information would have been on these lines:
“The wreckage may be a Lockheed Electra aircraft bearing the Registration NR16020 in large black lettering and numbers on the wing top surface and bottom surface. This Registration is also on the two vertical fins at the back of the aircraft. The fuselage will have a plate in the cockpit with the Serial Number 1055. The aircraft has two engines and propellers. The Engines are Pratt & Whitney Wasp engines with Serial Numbers 6149 and 6150. The aircraft is unpainted except for some red paint on the front of the wings . A marked distinguishing feature is that the fuselage Cabin of the plane is filled with fuel tanks. There were two crew members on the aircraft.”

Would that be a fair appraisal of information to describe the Electra ?

If that had been so, then the members of “D” Company who were read the reply from the U.S. Army would not have been told, “The Americans say it is not one of their engines”.

I ask readers to compare that information with a string of letters and numbers such as “600 H/P S3H1 C/N1055” which does not contain the obvious recognition feature of the Registration NR16020 which is the Primary outside piece of identification for the Electra to anyone chancing upon the wreck and the Fuel Tanks in the fuselage being a dead giveaway…. which surely would be forwarded to anyone if it was suspected that Earhart’s Electra had been found.

David Billings

[StickWithTheTruth]

Hi David, what was your post about the lidar survey about, did someone (you?) fund a helicopter to perform the survey? Did it find any points if interest?

Also, I'm sure you would have researched it, however are there any promising prospects for the use of a drone as a metal detector? From memory Dick Smith was using one to try and find VH-MDX.

[Cazalet33]

It's unsurprising that the B-17 wreckage was found, by the 1945 patrol and others, at the B-17 crash site.

We have no way of knowing when the secret treasure map was embellished with the Electra data requested from the Americans, but there's a pretty good clue in the date: 24/5/45. The date of the patrol's discovery of the wreckage at the B-17 crash site was 17/04/45.

Occam's Razor makes it pretty clear that the wreckage in the vicinity of the B-17 crash site is that of a B-17 and that the information received from the Americans on the 24th of May was transcribed onto a map's border on that date.

[David Billings]

Cazalet has a great idea....

It's unsurprising that the B-17 wreckage was found, by the 1945 patrol and others, at the B-17 crash site.

We have no way of knowing when the secret treasure map was embellished with the Electra data requested from the Americans, but there's a pretty good clue in the date: 24/5/45. The date of the patrol's discovery of the wreckage at the B-17 crash site was 17/04/45.

Occam's Razor makes it pretty clear that the wreckage in the vicinity of the B-17 crash site is that of a B-17 and that the information received from the Americans on the 24th of May was transcribed onto a map's border on that date.

1. AUST Army SITREPS in the AWM show that it was a patrol of the 16th Battalion which found the B-17 well before the 11th Battalion arrived at Wide Bay, so that wreck was known. The B-17 was lost in 1942 and a photograph of that B-17 at Brisbane before it was lost show it to be camouflage painted. The wreck that Patrol A1 found was not painted at all and if it was the B-17, you are then saying the paint was gone after two and a half years ? Also, why would the W/O on the Patrol A1 see the words or logo of the Pratt & Whitney Company on a B-17 when they were powered by Wright Cyclone engines ? So, to counter your proposition, there are two pointers there why you are mistaken, 1. Painted wreckage, 2, Wright engines, not P&W.

2. I agree that the map border had the transcribed detail from the U.S. Army written upon it on 24 May 1945 (24/5/45) or thereabout, no dispute there, because of the abbreviation "Ref:" as reference to what the U.S. Army was replying about. Why do I say "thereabout" ? I say it because the date may have been the date on the signal, not the date when "D" Coy were at TOL waiting for a barge to take them to the UNAMITKI River. The date the Patrol A1 ended was 18 April and I would expect that it would take some days, even weeks, for the U.S. Army to reply to the AUST Army concerning what they obviously considered was "Not one of theirs". If what you say is correct: Why would anyone wanting to give information to the AUST Army about the Electra, start by mentioning 600 Horsepower ? Or, by mentioning "S3H1" without saying "Pratt & Whitney R-1340 S3H1"... I can see them saying 1055 but why no "NR 16020" which is the PRIME written and painted identifier on the Airframe. What you say is not logical because it does not give the AUST Army enough information which is pertinent and advisable in the nomal way that it would be given (as I explained in my previous post.... which you may have read).

I still maintain that the metal tag removed was a repair tag left on by some kind fella at Burbank in around April 1937....

David Billings

[David Billings]

SWWT... Check PM..

[Cazalet33]

The wreck that Patrol A1 found was not painted at all and if it was the B-17, you are then saying the paint was gone after two and a half years ?

Some B-17 cowls were painted. Some were not. Some were half painted.


http://www.aviationexplorer.com/Boeing-B-17-Bomber.jpg


We have no way of knowing whether the engine/cowl was found upright or inverted. From the sketch, made many many decades later, very little of the cowl remained.

https://earhartsearchpng.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/part04-sketch01.jpg?w=760


An absence of memory of paint is as uninformative as a memory of absence of paint in this case. It's a B-17 part in a known debris field of a (now) known B-17 crash debris field.

Sure, the guys were unaware of the B-17 crash. Sure, the guys hoped they'd found Amelia Earhart. So the legend was born. Legends like that die hard, especially when people truly madly deeply want to believe the legend.

[David Billings]

Cazalet’s continued fixation that Patrol A1 saw the B-17

Cazalet says: “Some B-17 cowls were painted . Some were not, Some were half painted" ......and then shows us a picture of a fully painted B-17G with Drab Olive upper surfaces and Light Grey undersides which includes the engine cowlings.

I would hazard a guess that in 1942 when 41-2429 was lost that it was painted overall as per the last picture of it at Brisbane and I certainly saw the grey paint on the underside of what remained of the centre section wing when I saw it in 2000. There was no paint on the top surfaces. There is a photo on the Pacific Wrecks site showing 41-2429 at Brisbane in full camo.

I repeat… There are no outer wing panels or intermediate wing panels on this remnant of the B-17. There is no cockpit forward of the production joint, there is no tail section.

The fuselage of this B-17 points to the West, if anything slightly South-West.

What Patrol A1 saw:

My Point 1. Lieutenant Backhouse remembers the Stbd, outer part of the wing panel being bent upwards for about ten feet from the tip.

My Point 2. A sketch made by Lt. Backhouse shows the fuselage pointing to the East.

MY Point 3. Lt, Backhouse looked down into the cockpit area which was smashed backwards.

My Point 4. They were certainly climbing the hill where the B-17 rests but more to the East. If they had seen the B-17 they would still have been climbing after leaving that site because it is on the side of the hill, not on the top. In fact they report that after leaving the site where the engine and airframe were, “the going got easy” and was downhill.

My Point 5. Where we search is not in the vicinity of the B-17 it is a mile away from there.

The Sketch

That sketch you show was drawn by myself. It was sent to Keith Nurse for comment. My capital letters are at the RHS. My Dimension of 5’ (feet) is at the top. The rest of the writing was made by Keith Nurse. I have no idea where you got the idea that there was “very little of the cowl remaining”. Keith said the cowling was there but split open with the edges of the split being straight. He says “Burst open” as can be seen. Is that indicative of “very little of the cowl remained” ?

OH, I see what you are seeing…. You are thinking that I just drew the ”Outline” of the engine cowling because I made a depiction of the engine ‘inside’ together with the faint lines of a supposed engine mount… No, not so, in fact they reported that the sheet metal of the cowling had very little corrosion except for the front cowl ring which was heavily corroded.

“Sure, the guys hoped they had found Amelia Earhart”

None of them spoke of the thought that Earhart was involved with this wreck at all. Not then and not until Don Angwin saw the TV program that her aircraft was powered by Wasp engines.

It is a pity that none of them are alive today to answer you Cazalet.

Cazalet says: "Legends like that die hard, especially when people truly madly deeply want to believe the legend.".... "Truly, madly, deeply "!!! I think you've seen too many movies.

Cazalet….You have read the website ? Something tells me you have not.

[Skywagon1915]

David, fascinated with your dedication to this mystery. When the patrol found the engine, what happened or where was the rest of the wreckage, or even the second engine, did they not look for it etc ?
FN

[David Billings]

Skywagon1915:

The Airframe with the second engine on-wing (which is most probably the No.2) was hidden under vines and tree debris 30 yards further in from the engine. It is very dense jungle in there. We did not find out about the Airframe being there until 1994 (as I related earlier), up until then the story as related was that there was only an engine there.

That is why the U.S. Army was only informed about an engine as it appears Lt. Backhouse was under some sort of disciplinary action after they got back to base and we think the Patrol Warrant Officer made out the report and he did not know of anything but the engine.

Common sense says that if there is an engine loose on the ground, the rest of the aircraft will be nearby. Common sense also says that with the basically complete Airframe being there with the detached engine (most probably the No.1) close by, the angle of descent must have been steep. They reported a hole about 40 feet across, not a teardrop hole, just a hole. The breaks in the tree branches were reported to be blackened with age, they themselves thought the engine and the airframe had been there several years. The war in New Britain started on 23rd January 1942 so it had been just over three years since then. Earhart and Noonan had been lost for nearly eight years.

The Stbd,, wing was reported to be bent upwards and the cockpit smashed back which is indicative of a wingtip and nose hit simulaneously or one straight after the other as it hit the ground.

Not generally known is that the propellers could not be feathered and at fuel exhaustion the props would windmill and if the props start hunting from coarse to fine and back again and go out of synch. it would be a handful. A steep angle could indicate a spin entry or a straight out dive entry after loss of control. Putting the pitch levers into "Fine" will cause the props to go to Fine Pitch but the drag would be enormous

I have been to other wreck sites (B-24's) and when the airframe hits the trees in a glide angle or level angle the debris field is long and the engines break off and go rolling along the ground ahead of the airframe.

www.earhartsearchpng.com

[Cazalet33]

It's unsurprising that the B-17 wreckage was found, by the 1945 patrol and others, at the B-17 crash site.

We have no way of knowing when the secret treasure map was embellished with the Electra data requested from the Americans, but there's a pretty good clue in the date: 24/5/45. The date of the patrol's discovery of the wreckage at the B-17 crash site was 17/04/45.

Occam's Razor makes it pretty clear that the wreckage in the vicinity of the B-17 crash site is that of a B-17 and that the information received from the Americans on the 24th of May was transcribed onto a map's border on that date.

[David Billings]

Cazalet33...

You appear not to read and understand very well Cazalet, as you have repeated your former post.... I have answered your three posts concerning the B-17 and do not see the point of answering you again on the same points...

I completely understand your opinion and your propensity for expressing an opinion as seen on some of the other threads on PPrune which range from the engineering aspects of the Forth Road Bridge to The Erebus disaster to Mugabe through Bitcoin and North Korea and a nuclear armed Japan......

As one poster "tdRacer" (6th November 2016) has said when speaking of you, "I must admit you are consistent - when faced with information that disagrees with your pre-conceived notions you simply dismiss it as propaganda but never, ever offer anything backing your claims. In fact it's painfully obvious that you seldom (if ever) even bother to read the linked articles before condemning them."

Cazalet33.... When you have walked the hills there in East New Britain and have been where the Patrol A1 had been and have actually seen the crash site of the B-17, then I can believe that you have a genuine belief for your opinion, but until you do that, my opinion will be that you are painted blue and are monkeying around.

David Billings

[First_Principal]

David, it's clear you research things other than missing aircraft just as thoroughly :E

I applaud your tenacity - and clear turn of phrase - and hope you are successful in locating whatever it is on the site. On a personal level I will be interested to see how any further work with LiDAR pans out for you; I have long been a proponent of gradiometers for this sort of localised research (assuming the terrain is such that ERM's aren't feasible), but it's always good to learn more about how other methodologies work in different situations.

FP.

[David Billings]

First Principal...

Thankyou.

From what we do know, LiDAR seems to be the best shot.

For one, it will show the Bulldozer tracks and where the BD was working.
Secondly, if the detached engine was missed by the BD, then there will be a bright spot or a lump on the ground.
Similarly, the scan will show any change to the natural flow of the land.
Finally the Lat/Long availability within the readout will give us a pinpoint or targets that we can follow with the handheld GPS units.

I thought that maybe the U.S. Army has the treetop capability with airborne GPR but I am advised that it does not. Moving a trollied GPR Unit over the terrain there is just absolutely impossible.

One has to do the research if only to solve a problem which has to be dispersed...

[currawong]

Has the "relatively" recent work of the bulldozer made the going easier or harder?

Secondary J is just plain nasty a lot of the time.

[David Billings]

Bulldozer work started in 1995

Currawong.... Sometime in 1995 I had been up to Rabaul for a Port Inspection and flew back to Port Morbid in the Jump Seat of an F28 and asked the Captain (who I knew) if he would "go left a little bit" so I could get a squint at the whole of the search area and take some photos. He knew about the project and obliged....

I was amazed to see tracks creeping towards the search area from the North-west. I knew that the Australian Army Survey Corps had surveyed for a road across the narrow neck between Wide Bay and Open bay during WWII and there had been a rudimentary track. What I was now seeing was the road being made through to the Southern Coast at Wide Bay.

When we got in on the ground in early 1996 we met up with some part of this road through the Mumus River Valley and then up onto the search area hill, the track through was the point where we reached in late 1996 on our second visit that year and which was the time when I saw the bare earth patch that I now suspect as the burial site.

Then in 1996, logging had not commenced in this area stripping everything of value and you could actually see through the Primary Jungle on top of the ridgeline. The loggers were working their way towards the coast.

Last year we entered what was a complete mess. The bulldozer track that I knew on the ridgeline had become a water course exposing tree roots and causing deep puddles to form in the hollows. Secondary Jungle is the pits. Now you cannot see more than twenty feet while on the old track and visibility drops down to ten feet inside the bush off the track. New growth is everywhere. The "new" trees, post 1996 are not distinguishable from some of the older sprigs which have shot up since the light was let in...

So, it has made it harder and nastier.

[propertee64]

I have read through your impressive website Mr Billings, and am intrigued by your theory. Lets hope the LIDAR kit will lead to this wreckage whether it be Earharts Electra or something else although I would agree with you its hard to see what else the map numbers refer to.
How extensive is the immediate area you will investigate? Did the bulldozers work a wide area ?

[David Billings]

Propertee 64...

Thankyou.

The 1943 map that Lieutenant Backhouse had to work with just shows a "blob" of a hill with no contours but it does show a creek running to the east down the centre of the "blob" and the physical feature of the hill as being in a kind of Boomerang shape ("wouldn't it be ?") is not shown. [.....Incidentally, We do have the 1943 aerial photo taken by the Lockheed F-4 from 23,000 feet from which the map was produced - a very lucky find by one of my team.....].

We have been working from the 1976 map made by the Australian Army Survey Corps and it is accurate enough and the physical shape and contours of the hill are accurate enough and by GPS points it checks out, bearing in mind that GPS points are reliant in the U.S. fixing it globally..

The ridgeline we are interested in runs for two kilometres and at about the half distance point it splits into two, rather like a letter "Y" or "tuning fork". We know where Lt. Backhouse was aiming for, ie: which point on his map he was aiming to reach so they would have kept straight on as to go onto this left hand side leg of the "Y" would require a sharp left turn away from the direction they needed to maintain. From the spot height, the ridgeline gradually descends until it reaches a steeper drop off at the end.

The main bulldozer track follows the apex of the ridgeline and the BD driver smoothed out some of the bumps along it to give the timber jinker truck a better level track to drive on. Getting the logs out was done by dragging them to the main track where they were hauled onto the jinker and taken away.

What we have is that the BD driver bumped into it and it wouldn't move so he got out of his protective cage and peered through the bush, saw what it was and promptly buried it. This was before the army of tree thieves arrived to remove the booty so with no one else around, he buried it and took the track around it.

Backhouse's sketch shows it sited down below the ridgeline maybe 50 feet off from the top. We need to see where the tracks made by the BD go off the top of the ridgeline and then stop and back off and go back to the ridgeline and then continue on for a bit and then turn off again with a lot of workings at that point.

That only really could happen past the half way mark on the ridge travelling West to East.

[greg47]

Were you aware David that some rogue was transmitting they were the Electra floating at least a day later. Authority established it would have sunk very shortly after splash down. Why did she turn back ,when , from memory it was a 20 hr ? flt,and transmit she was on them and had commenced this north south search. It was common to lay off so they knew which way to turn initially. Crossing the Atlantic she missed the originall destination and landed at a French satelite placed for that very reason . I read at one stage there was a primitive battery powered NDB on Howland . In their eagerness it was turned on far to early .Voltage drop caused the range to be considerably reduced yet still providing an ident. Did Nunam rely to much on this.I dispute the Electra would have had 4 hrs fuel on arrival Howland area it was an hour at most. If she had circled the other way as she had originally until ground looping on TO in Hawaii the year before she may have made it, bigger land masses not to miss. BOAC early days crossing the Atlantic with doppler and means to drop a flare,to calclate drift, a bubble for star and sun shots, weather permitting ,planning on London nearly missed Prestwick on more than one occasion

[David Billings]

Greg47:

Post-loss Radio calls

I am aware that there were post-loss radio calls heard and the only four I am interested in are the one reported by Fred Goerner and the three calls heard by Nauru and referred to as the “Nauru Intercepts”. Goerner’s report is in his book and in my copy it is on Page 308 where he says Nauru heard Earhart on 6210 Kcs, saying, “Land in sight ahead”. The three calls came much later and were unintelligible but: “…it sounded like the same voice heard the night before but without hum of plane in the background.“ Again, all this is comprehensively discussed on the website.

You ask “why did she turn back” ?

Please read the website, Part 7., first subject. There you will find an explanation of “The Contingency Plan.”

Purposely “laying Off” before reaching the target distance.

Also sometimes called “The Chichester Method” when it was used by Chichester to navigate to Lord Howe Island. We are not sure if Noonan did employ this method of finding Howland due to the fact that he was aware of the supposed DF availability said to be there. Maybe he was expecting a full Adcock Array but all that was there was a portable set with flat batteries. I tend to think that this laying-off method was not used and instead they were attempting a straight-in approach to Howland. Why do I think that ? It is because she asked ITASCA for a bearing.

The DAKAR Error

A perfect example of Earhart’s tendency to trust her sensing as against trusting her Navigator is the decision by her to turn left instead of right at the approach to DAKAR. As you know I do believe on the groundspeeds attained that the Electra was well short of Howland at 1912 GMT. I think that Earhart took it upon herself to make that “Must be on you” call. I do not believe Noonan would have said to her that they were “…on Howland”, I think her impatience made her think they were there. As I explain in the website, the call Georner referred to in his book is feasible if they turned around for The Gilberts and were seeing the Tabiteuea Islands (or Nonouti Atoll) at time 2200 GMT which fits with Goernor’s “nearly two hours later” as when Nauru heard the call after the supposed last call at 2014GMT, (actually one and three-quarter hours later. which is “nearly two hours”)

Fuel

You are entitled to calculate what you think was the fuel state when as you say, they arrived close to Howland. To me as an ex-Flight Engineer, if I had a Contingency Plan I would want to know what the minimum fuel holding was that I could go down to before I invoke that Contingency Plan. The very word Contingency means that there is thought of an alternate in case there gets to be a problem. No pilot or crew leaves terra firma with the idea that they are going to die except for those nutcases who do commit suicide and in some cases, “take others with them”…. Those are the exceptions. I have had it said to me by quite a few pilots (because I have asked them), “What would they do if they still had fuel", and they all say, “I would keep going until I had to put it down”, (in the sea or on the land). So, if you have a Contingency Plan, it follows that you have contingency fuel. All Airline Pilots today carry “alternate fuel”, and every sensible Private Pilot does too.

[propertee64]

Your very detailed website calculations on fuel usage show what was possible ( from some of the questions on here I wonder if people have read it! ). I must admit to initially doubting the range issue but
having gone through it all I'm beginning to think you might have something. In all your research have you heard anything about whether a Japanese patrol might have earlier stumbled on the wreckage ,
just like the Australian patrol did , and maybe removed any wreck contents they might have passed on to their intelligence people?

[David Billings]

Propertee64...

Range

I often wonder too if people have read it and absorbed it ! I spent considerable time writing the whole of the website in an attempt to put together what we do know on the factual side in this intriguing project and the hypothetical side of Fuel and Endurance calculations to explain the possibility, took up most of the time. I applaud MS Excel for doing the calculations because if Excel wasn’t around I’d still be running the numbers on a calculator.

…whether a Japanese patrol…etc ?

A good question.

Yes, it is possible that a Japanese Patrol did encounter the wreck, they were certainly there at Wide Bay and all down the coastline as the recorded history tells us. Some of the fighting in the TOL Plantation area was very fierce and of course we cannot forget the massacre of Australian Troops that surrendered at TOL.

However, it is more likely to have been ”Local” people if anything when we discuss someone finding the wreck. Generally speaking, local people in PNG are a bit wary of aircraft wrecks and do not enter aircraft wrecks in case there is anything in there which can go “Bang”. They do not know the difference between transport type aircraft and bomber aircraft.

It is recorded that the villages along the Wide Bay coastline did exist before and during WWII, albeit the location of the villages do change a little

The POMIO people possibly would have removed items “if” they had found it, but they do not know where it is. One of the first questions I asked in arrival there in 1994 was: “Do you know of any old aircraft in this area ?” In Tok Pisin that becomes, “Mi askim yupela, sapos yupela save sampela olpela balus na save ples istap long hap bilong yu ?" All I got was blank looks and a "Nogat", they had even forgotten about the B-17 and only wrote to me in 2000 about that. Whereupon I jumped on a plane to Rabaul, hired a helicopter and landed at the village, picked up three men and went inland and landed on a sandbank and walked up to where they had found something only to find that it was the B-17.

They are as puzzled as we have been since 1994 when they came in with us to search for the first time under my auspices and they had also been with one search party in 1993.

The wreckage will have been laying out in the open from the years 1937 until the time of year that I strongly suspect it was buried by the bulldozer driver: “Mid-1996”

We do know that the wreck was off the ridgeline and just slightly down the slope of the ridge to the northern side.

If not the Pomio people, then who else could possibly find the wreck ?

There had been a tribe of nomadic people called the MOLKOLKOL living in there for many years pre-WWII, during WWII and up until 1951. As well as being nomadic they were very violent and were known for raiding villages on the north side of the island in the OPEN BAY area and also on the south side in the WIDE BAY area where the search we do takes place.

Two Molkolkol were shot by retreating Australian Troops in a river valley when they attacked the party with long handled axes. They were known to co-operate with the Japanese during WWII.

They were rounded up in 1951 by the Australian Administration and were taken to RABAUL and integrated into the BAINING Tribes and generally now are known to live in peace and are not distinguishable from the other tribes around the GAZELLE Peninsula.

The worst raid they committed killed 36 people on the Wide Bay Coast most probably at the same village where we go and is most probably the reason why they were rounded up. This Molkolkol story is possibly significant to your question because a nomadic tribe wandering through the jungle may have come across the wreck and may have disturbed the contents. This has been at the back of my mind since the Robert E. Wallack story about a briefcase belonging to Earhart was reported found in a locked safe on Saipan and which may very well be true “IF” the Molkolkol had found the wreckage and had handed in a briefcase to the Japanese on New Britain Island. No-one has found any Japanese records to back up the briefcase story though, or, evidence of where the briefcase is now....

Because of the fear of the Molkolkol the people in the coastal villagers did not venture far into the forest. Since then, extensive logging has been carried out in the area and on the ridgeline, hence the bulldozer entering the scene in 1995, making tracks.

[David Billings]

WWII Operations on New Britain

For those interested in the WWII history of Operations on New Britain island with maps and photographs there is an excellent chapter from official records here;

http://www.awm.gov.au/cms_images/histories/23/chapters/10.pdf

Rgds, DB.

[greg47]

the Nakani people walked Townsend and co from the Pomio side to the Open bay side to link up with Hargasheimer?an American who had been there some time. Doing poorly his protein was mothers milk. Townsend retired as Air vice Marshal, was to valuable to fall into jap hands so were lifted off by an American sub. So there were certainly a population in the 40s. These areas were always sparsely populated in those days but certainly populated

[Judd]

David,
Would it be possible for you to draw for Pprune readers a rough map showing the original planned Lockheed track from Lae to Howland island; especially showing the relative positions of Tarawa and Nauru and annotate whereabouts along that track you feel the change of direction may have occurred that took the aircraft to where you consider the most likely crash site in New Britain. A picture is worth a thousand words

[David Billings]

Judd:

"Would it be possible for you to draw for Pprune readers a rough map showing the original planned Lockheed track from Lae to Howland island, etc..."

On the very first introductory page of the website, there is a diagram of the route that I consider was taken and the point where I explain in the Hypothesis side of the project where the turnback occurred. NAURU and TARAWA are marked on that map as are other places.

Use that as a guide and follow the route on Google Earth or Google Maps...

Most people these days have Google Earth or Google maps.

I find that most writers just draw a 'straight line' from LAE to HOWLAND and have done with it, but for a heavily-laden aircraft the first obstacle would be the eastern end of the SARAWEGED range to the East of LAE. This tail-end of the range goes to 3000 feet or more on this 'straight line'. Earhart was still low over the sea of the HUON Gulf until out of sight...

For the original intended route I would take it that Earhart would have Fred Noonan plot the Great Circle route, it being the shortest. Once Earhart had rounded the northern coast of the Huon Gulf, the way would be clear on a GC Route to head out on track for the southern coast of New Britain Island and make landfall around the GASMATA area. Then the aircraft would coast out again headed for the BUKA Passage, the small straight between BOUGAINVLLE Island and BUKA Island.

Once through there it is open sea until NUKUMANU Island, except for a glimpse of the MORTLOCK Atoll on the left hand side.

However I am convinced that they did not go that way due to the report of a LOW off the S.E. coast of New Britain Island right on that track. There would be a reason not to go that way in bad weather for Mount BALBI is in the area and it goes to 8,500 feet.

From the 0518 GMT call it is apparent that Earhart did not go on the GC Route initially as the call indicated she was over CHOISEUL Island, after that she dog-legged up to NUKUMANU Island to pick up the original intent of the GC Route. See the green line on the map on the website.

From NUKUManu the GC Route is taken all the way towards HOWLAND. Next Landfall would be TABITEUEA Island, then Howland.

My Hypothesis of where they turned back after the Line Search, is based on the Groundspeeds that can be worked out as best we can from the Radio calls. The wind at NUKUMANU Atoll was recorded at 26 mph by Earhart "without a direction" but as I explain in the website with a vector diagram, it had to be from the East and was the reason why Noonan's navigation ended up 20 miles to the West of Nukumanu. Seasonal winds in July across the Pacific are from the East.

The wind at Howland on the morning of their intended arrival was recorded as 31 MPH at 7000 feet from the East.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[propertee64]

Mr Billings, your website certainly gives a tremendous amount of very interesting detail, and to a degree not seen elsewhere in many respects. Everything you say seems reasonable so I'm amazed that it hasn't generated more interest ( and financial backing ) from the USA especially bearing in mind the history of this flight and the questions it raised. What is your financial target for the next visit to ENB?

[FAR CU]

The wind at Howland on the morning of their intended arrival was recorded as 31 MPH at 7000 feet from the East.

How would that have been measured? Met balloon?

[David Billings]

In response to Far Cu:

That wind figure comes from the TIGHAR Records. The reading was from the US Coast Guard stationed at Howland so I presume the method was by Met Balloon.

I may not agree with a lot of what TIGHAR assumes happened to Earhart and Noonan, but I certainly will give credit for the research carried out by the members of that organisation. Without that extensive research we would be none the wiser on a lot of aspects of the Earhart saga.

The deck logs of the S.S. ONTARIO and the USCG SWAN (the two guard ships) and the USCG ITASCA are contained in the CD that was included with the book written by Gillespie of TIGHAR and from those records came the actual location of the ONTARIO (22 miles out of its' assigned position) and that ONTARIO was headed into a 20 Knot wind from the East at Sea Level at 1030 GMT, around the time of the flyover. If Noonan was referencing that position against the assigned position it affects the navigation.

[David Billings]

Propertee64

Mr Billings, your website certainly gives a tremendous amount of very interesting detail, and to a degree not seen elsewhere in many respects. Everything you say seems reasonable so I'm amazed that it hasn't generated more interest ( and financial backing ) from the USA especially bearing in mind the history of this flight and the questions it raised. What is your financial target for the next visit to ENB?

At this moment I am doubting whether we can make it again this year. Last year we took an American Party in who funded the trip but they could only be there for a max of six (6) days. We were ten people last year. The logging tracks down through the rain forest of the Gazelle Peninsular from KOKOPO to Wide Bay have been linked and 4WD is possible but there are three rivers to cross which are fordable if the rain stays away. We studied SAT views and deemed it possible to get down there by 4WD's and that brought the cost back from around US$19,500 for helicopter transport for ten to US$8000 for the hire of three Toyota Hilux 4WD's, of which about US$3000 was refundable..

The measured 160 Kms took seven hours, not the four hours we anticipated and the potholed roads through the urban areas were worse than the logging tracks. The last river ford was quite dangerous. The MEVELO River runs quite fast at the ford even when not in flood. There is a Palm Oil Plantation on the north side of this river and that Company had started to build a bridge over the river using shipping containers ballasted with rocks as the supports, about seven or eight containers. From the SAT views we could see that one span remained to be completed but without that bridge there was an alternate track leading to the site though the Mumus River and through the Yarras River Valley. So all seemed O.K.

The alternate track was blocked by growth and when we arrived at the Mevelo the bridge had been broken by the force of the river in flood but a Toyota Landcruiser TC had just been through the ford so the Hiluxes would not have a problem but the river was up over the wheel arches. That now meant that if it rained heavily the river would be up further. The first night there was a three hour long thunderstorm, the longest I have ever encountered while in there. The inside of the tent was lit up by every flash….

So, we had to watch the river on a daily basis and eventually it was decided that as it was imperative that we get back over the river before it did flood we decided to pull stumps and return to Kokopo after four days.

That means we cannot use vehicles again until a bridge is built and we are now back to using a helicopter. We even tried boats for about five trips but the rough seas are quite dangerous. We will not use boats again unless it is a cruise liner.

There is also not much point in going unless the LiDAR Survey can be done and the data processed.

The Lidar Survey will cost in the region of US$25,000 if done from Australia which means an aircraft flying up and doing the maximum time of a 30-minute scan and then flying back.

It costs roughly US$4000+ per person each trip which include a hotel going in and out. My Team is five so US20,000+ for that.

All up then with the Helicopter, Airfares, Hotels, Gear and Rations my Team of five costs around US$55,000 with LiDAR, 5-Team Costs and 4.5 Hours of Helicopter time.

Exciting stuff !

[Global Aviator]

This is remarkable work. I am extremely curious.

As has been mentioned there is nothing but benefit to finding a wreck, be it the famous one or not.

David is not talking huge money either. All I can say is spread the word, spread the message end help raise funds. I’ll happily donate a little bit, alas it will take lots of little bits or one major sponsor.

Let’s all get behind this.....

[propertee64]

So David, do you get the LIDAR survey information first and then plan the trip around those results?

Does that mean that however promising the LIDAR material is you have to wait until funding is available to physically visit the area again?

[David Billings]

Propertee64:

"So David, do you get the LIDAR survey information first and then plan the trip around those results?"

That is correct... The area is actually not that large it is just completely overgrown into Secondary Jungle. LiDAR will give us indications of ground disturbances... bulldozer tracks, and ground feature changes from the natural flow of the land. It will give us targets in Lat/long that we can go to.

"Does that mean that however promising the LIDAR material is you have to wait until funding is available to physically visit the area again?"

Correct again... if I have the LiDAR plan in my hands, I cannot go until adequate funding is obtained.

[propertee64]

I recall a few years ago, maybe 3 years, the University of Sydney made extensive use of LIDAR in archaeology work in Asia. would they be able to help in any way?

[David Billings]

Propertee64:

I recall a few years ago, maybe 3 years, the University of Sydney made extensive use of LIDAR in archaeology work in Asia. would they be able to help in any way?

I think it is longer than three years ago., maybe five or so. I think it was not LiDAR they used, but GPR, by the "Handcart" method ...and you cannot use handcarts in the jungle up there. GPR to hire/use/process is very expensive and takes some time. With LiDAR you can have the results in a day.

Correction.... You are correct, it was LiDAR and it was the Angkor Wat work.

[First_Principal]

David, I've posted previously on this regarding [magnetic] gradiometers (and also ionospheric propagation on that day, but that's another matter).

Having - admittedly rather briefly - reviewed this thread I see that you mention using a 'portable magnetometer' in a previous search. Are you able to elaborate on that? While a gradiometer may use magnetometers it is a somewhat different beast to a single magnetometer, and IMV would ordinarily be the weapon of choice when looking for this sort of thing. If you were in fact using a single magnetometer then I would be less surprised at a nil or somewhat confusing result.

FP.

[David Billings]

First Principal.....

We did use a portable unit on two occasions. It was a unit designed by a Marine Company in Florida. There was a "waterproof" model and a standard model. It consisted of two lengths of what I will call "Plastic Drainage Pipe" about 2 feet (600 mm) long which joined together to form a long tube carried by a Shoulder strap. Power was supplied by rechargeable batteries stored in the tube and with a Control Panel at one end with Headphone socket and Volume and Setting controls. The unit had to be preset to the Earth's Magnetic field according to a diagram. The cost I recall was about $1500.00.

The carriage method in the Jungle was a bit of a problem, weaving in and out between foliage meant it wanted to swing also and the Instructions demanded a steady path for the unit. It also meant that bushknives and spades had to be well away from it while in use. One other problem was that due to the batteries being low charge rate the charge had to be 12 Volts and under 0.5 amps to avoid cooking the batteries so that required a separate transformer to be along as well.....

It was also the reason why I started to accumulate about four or five generators down there. On the early trips we had relied totally in batteries, now I needed a GenSet to charge the Magnetometer batteries.

I found that once I started taking Generators in, it is amazing how the team members managed to carry all manner of those rechargeable electric gadgets with them on the next trip and a queue formed at the Generator....!

[David Billings]

...and now for the bad News...

The LiDAR Survey quotation has come in from Cyber Space ... The cost of the 30 minute maximum time for the survey sweep and the journey cost is more than double what we were expecting even though the company from Australia have a survey platform transiting through the area in a couple of months time....so the journey cost should be well down... and the total should be reasonable but it is not.

I am afraid the project cannot afford that kind of money. US$60,000 is way out of our league.

No LiDAR... back to square one.

[First_Principal]

David, sorry to hear of the LiDAR costs, however that may leave the field open for a 'proper' geomagnetic survey...

From your description of your magnetometer I'm not sure that what you had is really what you'd want for this sort of work? The style of gradiometer I'm thinking of will record data that you then download to a computer and analyse - often producing a '3d' relief map of what has been recorded. Typically they use two or more single or multi axis magnetometers (which may be housed in a tube, but it would be unusual to find the batteries also in that tube).

These have been used to great effect in archeologic surveys, but like the unit you used they will be extremely sensitive to nearby ferrous material (the operator should ideal wear gumboots, no watch or belt buckle etc), and it's important to conduct an accurate grid search. I think that with the right sort of gear and some lateral thinking the latter may be able to be addressed to some extent with modern equipment and concurrent GPS data (realising the nature of the terrain you're working with).

Alternatively I see no reason why a reasonable sized drone couldn't carry a suitable gradiometer and be programmed to fly a grid pattern, thus alleviating the terrain issue. I have an idea I've seen someone else here mention this too but I'm aware that there are such things in a commercial field (Sensys comes to mind) although I am uncertain of their effectiveness for this particular search you have in mind as I've not worked with them directly and am unsure if their units are a single magnetometer or a gradiometer.

However taking this one step further I'd suggest that in any event it would be reasonably simple to test the effectiveness of any such system well before trying it out in PNG - place a motor on the ground in a field and/or the side of a hill, run a standard grid pattern from a specified height and chart the results. This should give an idea if it would be suitable for what you need, and/or what could be changed to make it work or improve it etc.

Obviously they do have a cost but it I expect it would be somewhat less than what you've been quoted for the LiDAR survey, and you may find a company or individuals who are able and willing to assist more easily in this space than in LiDAR.

Unfortunately I don't have direct connection with any company that could help you, but I have some experience of the technology (I have built my own mag-gradiometer) and could possibly give you a few leads to try if that was useful - perhaps best to establish contact via a PM if you thought it worthwhile.

Otherwise I trust you will be able to find another suitable, and hopefully successful, angle to approach the search from.

FP.

[David Billings]

A new angle...?

Presently I am working in two new angles....and one old angle...

Hopefully one angle or better still, two angles.... will work.

[First_Principal]

Er, good to hear about the angles, I trust they work out! Perhaps in the interim you could humour me for a moment?:

Because of my background I have both a personal and professional interest in 'seeing what cannot be seen'. Geophysics forms a significant part of this and the problem you have falls, more or less, within a present branch of research and development that I've been pursuing for a while. This work is one reason why I come back to a magnetic survey methodology for locating the 'plane within your search area.

I've cast around and have been interested to find that there's not a lot of data on magnetic aeroarcheology - larger scale prospecting yes, but not so much the sort of thing I think would be required here. It may be that my search was all too brief, but from first principles (my username is an allusion to this!) I'm not especially surprised. Much of the successful work in the the archeomagnetic survey field has been carried out at ground level, and at relatively close range, after all the anomalies one is looking for are likely to be fairly insignificant and a high degree of spatial resolution is required.

Although the resolution issue may be dealt with to a degree, traversing the ground at any height will severely reduce the ability of sensor(s) to detect these anomalies that are usually underground - obviously the deeper underground the anomaly (object) is, or the higher above ground the sensor is the more difficult this will be. However in the case of most archeology the sort of disturbance that produces the anomalies generally sought is what I'd call secondary. There's no need to go into this in detail here but the mass of metal that you're looking for is a primary interest and should thus be much more evident in any survey conducted at a similar level, and the range of detection would extend to a somewhat higher level than usual in typical archeological applications.

Now, I have some feeling of the terrain and cover that you have in your area of interest, but obviously no personal experience - I wonder what the typical cover height of the foliage is? At what height agl could a small UAV traverse across the area without impediment but maintain a relatively constant distance from the ground?

Where I'm going with this is that my (fluxgate) magnetometers should detect a mass of metal the approx size of a P&W single wasp engine at between 15-20m distance. These are certainly not the best magnetometers available but they are what I have experience of and my view is that, configured as a gradiometer and carried at a distance beneath a UAV, they would probably 'see' such an object at a reduced height agl (let's say 10m for the moment).

From this, and while there are a number of factors that could affect the outcome, a properly conducted grid survey, at a reasonable height agl (less is obviously better!) could stand a fairly good chance of locating the motor and/or complete aircraft you're looking for if they're within the survey area. To be clear; this would be a series of physical measurements plotted and later analysed with appropriate methods - it's not something you'd use like a hand-held metal-detector.

This may not be a 'fit' for whatever you have planned, and it may well be that there are other reasons why it wouldn't work as I hypothesize, but I'm interested enough to want to think more about the problem, at least abstractly... It may also be that someone viewing this has significant experience in this area; any insight would be welcome!

FP.

[David Billings]

For First Principal...

FP, I see where you are coming from and understand that you have the technology with and for a MAG survey but the problem would be and will be the required "nearness" of the detector to the source, the subject it is trying to detect. The trees will get in the way.

Although the loggers leave a trail of destruction like you would not believe the trail or damage itself is detectabe even in Google Earth as you can see the verbiage has a different shade of green where they have rampaged through the area knocking, chain-sawing and crushing. From SAT photos that are embedded with LAT/LONG and viewed in Adobe I can follow the ridgeline bulldozer track just by the colour change of the green tinge or by the greyscale change in a black and white SAT view.

There are very few glimpses of the ground in a SAT view except on "Zoom Earth" outdated SAT pics you can see where the Logging Company had literally knocked over "everything" (there are logs to be seen lying on the ground) in their attempts at 're-aforestation' and those attempts are showing up on Google Earth as a "different shade of green" as the new trees they plant are Kamarare Trees and the blocks they have planted show up as plain as day on Google earth in the Wide Bay area just back from the coast by the different shade of green.

On the hill, I would say that where they have been, the trees left standing that they have not taken because they are less commercial value will be up to 100 feet tall (30 Metres) so a drone would have to be pre-programmed to stay above a height of say 125 feet above the trees, plus the ground level height. The next problem is that the hill ridgeline is not level.... it increases in height the further it goes to the West so the drone would have to have a safety factor let in there, say 200 feet altitude above the trees, just in case it clonks into an exceptionally high tree.

That to me, would be the problem.

We did at first consider a LiDAR drone and in that case the drone height would have been say, 1500 feet to clear both the trees and the ground level altitudes which due the to slope on the ridgeline would vary, end to end...

[First_Principal]

Thanks for that info, it gives me some useful detail to consider now.

I suspect a Caesium magnetometer may be capable of reasonably detecting the sort of thing you're looking for at that distance (125ft) but I don't have any, nor have I experience with them unfortunately.

That said I'll see what data I can find, and if it looks to be useful I'll pass it on. In the meantime I can do a little more with the fluxgate devices I have to get an idea of the range possible with them, given a similar target.

FP.

[Sunfish]

A few points:

I am familiar with aeromagnetic stuff as a result of having to administer one of those University R&D syndicates circa 1998 that was trying helicopter towing of a large loop of antenna for prospecting - an abject and very expensive failure (but a verrrry taaax effective project!). You are going to have to demonstrate reliable detection in Australian jungle conditions before taking something like that to PNG.

Knowing secondary jungle in New Guinea, any drone used is going to have to be expendable, you will never find it, let alone recover it, if it crashes.

For armchair critics of Mr. Billings, consider that where he is going there is not reliable (if any) 240V power, no technical resources and the official bureaucracy is mind blowing if they sense a buck is to be made out of you. The logistics of mounting any expedition in PNG are mind boggling. Anyone who has ever seen the inside of a PNG general store in a village will know what I mean.

The thought also struck me while watching a CAT D8 put in a bushfire containment line late last night was that the driver who allegedly "buried" the wreck out of tribal jealousy, probably also drove over it and crushed it because it saves him time and effort, which is a depressing thought. You may be looking for two engines and a flat aluminium pancake buried eighteen inches deep under featureless secondary jungle.

Sorry for being depressing but I admire your tenacity and wish more power to your arm.

[David Billings]

Response to Sunfish....

Thanks Sunny all good points.

You would be correct about testing a drone before the venture to PNG but I don't think we are going down that path. The logistics of getting a drone into PNG and down to site without damage to delicate equipment get a bit difficult. We had the same thought with a LiDAR drone and when I heard it needed a largish box and was two stroke powered that raised the DG question for airfreight plus getting it down by road near enough to the site and hoping the out of sight programming boomeranged it back to base was too much.

What 240V electrickery ? None... General Store nearby ? None. There is one miles away across the river at the Palm Oil HQ site but I am told the prices are three times the Kokopo price. Any transport ? None. I did borrow the village bicycle once. It had no rotating pedal footpads and no brakes. Local bureaucracy ? One time when we went down by boat the Local MP asked for a lift from a relief stop along the Gazelle Coast and on to Wide Bay in our hired boat and never said a word to me until we got to the little boat bay near Kalai. Then as he was leaving for Kalai he turned to me and said, "Yu find any-ting, you come talk to me OK ?".... It was an order...

Yes, it may well be flattened as you say, certainly the bare, house block-sized patch I saw (and now suspect) in late 1996 was fairly level which is why I thought at the time that they might well be intending to store logs there before the Jinker picked them up as we had seen a similar area down by the main river that was being used for that purpose. However I may be totally wrong about that cleared patch.

Against that thought is that the information that came with the news of the burial was that the BD driver did intend to go back and dig it out at some stage when we had stopped searching. Even if the stamped Data Plate on the Instrument Panel has corroded to dust there are enough identifying features on the aircraft for a positive i.D. Flattened is an extreme but when I.D.'d, someone else can take over and then the geniuses can work out the rest.

Sunfish, you sound less skeptical !

[First_Principal]

I spent a little time this morning attempted to call some people in Australia who may have more of an insight with regard to use of magnetometers in this particular area (in both senses of the word 'area'!). Unfortunately half of the country appeared to be out or in meetings but I hope to get a response in the next day or so. If not I'll try again next week.

@Sunfish: Interesting to hear of your experience, I suspect from your description that may not have been a magnetometer per se(?). From what I understand there have been some advances in the field over the past 15 or more years such that a caesium unit could be somewhat more useful for this task than what you were previously using. Certainly I think it's worth persevering with the enquiries at this stage.

Totally agree with the testing aspect prior to taking it to site, the area does sound rather inhospitable. As it happens I have a very similar site available (~200 acres of what might be described as 'jungle' on a hillside), so could trial something, but I'm a wee distance from you and don't have the necessary sensors available. As a lightly amusing but related aside I do have access to a [twin] wasp engine and also own a bulldozer, but I won't be carrying out any testing to that degree of realism :ooh:

FP.

[Sunfish]

FP,you are right, I don't think it was a magnetometer, some sort of pulsed metal detector, however it proved to be dangerously unstable flying under a helicopter so all hte project did was generate huge tax deductions, which was after all the purpose of these R & D schemes.

I hope there has been progress since then and that there is technology to help Mr. Billings.

The point I was trying to make was that one would need to be very sure that the technology was both robust and sensitive enough to detect the wreck before investing the time and money needed to overcome the very considerable logistical, bureaucratic and political challenges of deploying it to the back blocks of PNG.

I suggest that would involve a test of finding a suitable crankshaft in jungle with soil conditions like PNG if that factor is deemed to affect accuracy like mineralisation affects hand held metal detectors.

Once found, there will then be political issues to solve with the PNG Government and locals over "their" wreck that should involve the Australian and U. S. governments. Considering all the hurdles, there is therefore a good chance for the project to end in tears but if one approaches it with an open mind about the risks, it is perhaps worth doing.

Has crowd funding been considered?

[David Billings]

Looking at a few options....

I am looking at a few options at the moment, "GoFundMe" is one of them.

When I wrote the new website and produced it in early 2016 it was not very long before I had people that read it and people on here, on this Forum saying, "Put a PayPal button on the website"... On this single very thread there were about five people who said that.

Of the three donations I have received since the PayPal button went on one is from an ex-R.A.F. Apprentice from the same Training establishment I went through in the years 56-59, one is from a mate who worked at Air Niugini and one is directly attributable to this thread. Was it worth putting a PayPal button in the website.

I have come to the conclusion that people just love to read about the project. They read the evidence, all the history, all the explanations, all the reasoning and all the answers to the questions I receive.... all the answers to the armchair critics which I consider reasonable... but all that does not translate into more donations than the two donations received since I reopened this zombie thread on February 4th almost one month ago.

The Project news first appeared in the "USA Today" newspaper in August 2004 and since then it has been on several websites in the U.S. and most people are surprised that there has been no one really wealthy person backing this to the hilt since those displays started 14 years ago. I too am surprised.

For a variety of reasons I am deferring the June trip to a later date.

The seasons are changing up in PNG. June used to be a good weather month. Indeed, in April 1945, the Patrol A1 report includes the words that tracks seen "are Jeepable in June weather"... The good weather has slipped back to "August to October". I had hoped to conclude the June trip around July 4th....

You will have read that we cannot secure a LiDAR survey due to the enormous cost contained in a quote issued by an Australian Company in Sydney.

You will have read that we were funded last year. I am unsure of that funding continuing this year either for June or for later.

The airline up there is in a heap of trouble and the schedule is disrupted on a daily basis. I would prefer to wait until that disruption stabilises. No one desires to be stuck in Port Moresby anymore going "in" or "out".

Funding this Project has always been a problem, it is a case of "believe the evidence and the reasoning" or "do not believe the evidence and the reasoning". Seemingly it is the latter.

I will continue but it will be a little later.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[propertee64]

David, has anybody else done survey work there in that area in conjunction with other things that might be of use to you?.

Military or jungle survey photos , scans ,or whatever? I know you made reference to some satellite and WW2 photos..

[David Billings]

LIDAR and survey work...

Propertee64 asks:

"David, has anybody else done survey work there in that area in conjunction with other things that might be of use to you?."

I guess the Open Bay Timber company did a survey of sorts to decide where they needed to put tracks in to extract logs.

Apart from that, "No, I do not think so." No doubt they will be doing more of it in later years because we have seen traces of copper.

"Military or jungle survey photos , scans ,or whatever? I know you made reference to some satellite and WW2 photos.."

I have seen Map overlays in the Australian War Memorial which depict where the patrolling took place on the south side and the north side of the Mevelo River and I know exactly how far Patrol A1 reached and where they reached on 16th April '45. I know where they camped on the night of the 17th April '45. Obviously the wreck is between these two points which run for about three and a half kilometres. Now, I have narrowed down the probable wreck location to an area about one half a kilometre long but if course, we have heard since 2011, that it is buried.

I have a 1943 aerial taken by a Lockheed F-4 from 23,000 feet from almost exactly over the centre of the search area and that has been extremely useful. It was an early morning shot and there is lots of tree crown shadows down sun, so it is hard to differentiate the possibility of 'holes' in the canopy. It is clear down to about 5,000 feet then if gets fuzzy. It has been useful when tracing the original course of the major and minor rivers in the area, and of course... it is a beautiful piece of work... .

I have the 1943 map which was produced from that photograph.

I have a 1976 Topographical map original which I purchased in PNG in 1994 and I have the same map which has been digitised and I can "Mouse" LAT/LONG on that, It is extremely accurate when I make comparison to my hand-held GPS Waypoints.

I have SAT photos from Global View and these are also digitised with Lat/Long available to the mouse.

I have been presented with the 1943 photo and the 1976 digital mao and the SAT views by a Team member who is a gentleman and a scholar and who is, of course, a believer. It cheers me up no end when that happens.

In fact I have been using all these resources this very morning from 5:00 am onwards to plot waypoints for the next attemppt. If some real funding comes through, I might get to use them....

[MJA Chaser]

Maybe of interest to this intriguing project in PNG: The use of a magnetometer in the search for VH-MDX in the Barrington Tops was research recently. This involved opinions from those who use these devices commercially as part of mineral exploration. It was concluded that the target was too small to be able to get close enough (estimated at 20m) from the air to detect the very small amount of ferrous metal that would be in a small aircraft wreckage in a rainforest.
If you can make a magnetometer of use in this type of search I’d love to hear about it.

[David Billings]

MJA chaser....

Yes, that is the opinion I had back in 2009 from an experienced MAG Operator on these boards.

Of late others say a different opinion but that opinion also is contingent on the device being near to the source and when consideration of the tree height is taken, the opinion diminishes somewhat. Where trees have been removed, obviously there are gaps and smaller secondary growth, but lone trees left there as not commercially valuable or hard to get at pose an aviation hazard for the unwary drone or helicopter.

Technical advances in Magnetometers may prove otherwise.

This reasoning is why I went for LiDAR, not to pick out the aircraft for that is buried, but to give me a ground surface picture I could pore over to see where the billdozer driver went all over that hill and to assess for "any change" in the natural flow of the land on the hill.

Even today I found something I did not know but there again, it was something that nagged at me. There is the old adage of "You learn something every day" and I am a firm believer in that . Today, I found a small valley on the hill that I did not know existed, yet, there it is, if you use all the resources you can muster, those resources as I mentioned in my earlier post today, so I say, "all is not lost". I just need the funding.

[First_Principal]

Maybe of interest to this intriguing project in PNG: The use of a magnetometer in the search for VH-MDX in the Barrington Tops was research recently.

Do you have any detail on this research? I'm going through the process at the moment and it would be useful to know more about the inputs and outcome of any evaluation.

FP.

[MJA Chaser]

Do you have any detail on this research? I'm going through the process at the moment and it would be useful to know more about the inputs and outcome of any evaluation.

FP.

Yes, in a nut shell the size of the target is so small that a commercially available magnetometer needs to be within an estimated 20m of the target to detect it. Virtually impossible in a rainforest. Magnetometers are useful for finding large ferrous bodies and a wreck of a light aircraft isn’t a large ferrous body.



What process are you going through and for what? Maybe PM me??

[First_Principal]

Ok, thanks. I was interested in the type of magnetometer researched (eg. fluxgate, caesium, potassium etc), their sensitivity, the type/mass of the target material and whether the proposed search was as a plotted and post-processed survey or simple MAD etc.

I'd be keen to follow up if you've got this detail? That's the research and process I'm presently following up so if there's someone to speak with who has been through this, at least in part, it could be useful.

FP.

[MJA Chaser]

:hmm:[QUOTE=...., the type/mass of the target material ....

FP.[/QUOTE]

A Cessna 210. That was the problem, to small to detect from hundreds of meters away. We didnt go to any more further assesment.

Others did try back mounted devices walking around in the bush which werent practicle plus a sensing array was hovered over another Cessna at an airfield in another attemp to see if it could work and couldnt detect what they could see.

Very frustrating as it would be great if it could be proved to work.

[First_Principal]

Quite, I wouldn't expect 100's of metres range, but if it wasn't possible to detect a 210 at say 20 or 30 metres I suspect the equipment may not have been ideal for the task in hand.

I base this on my magnetometers which (as earlier noted) will detect a mass similar to a wasp engine at around 15m. These are older mags, modern units should be significantly better - these are what I'm trying to gain some insight on.

I understand David's desire to use LiDAR, but it's highly unlikely to detect a 'plane per se, although it will give the lie of the land as he's stated. If one had infinite resource then that could help, but without that luxury I'm interested to see if modern magnetic equipment could or would be suitable for the task of directly locating the craft.

If so then it may be a cost-effective option that becomes viable for this search, but beside that it could also be useful for others - as you've alluded to. Hence I think it's worth spending some time on. If you had contact details for those that carried out the work with the array you mention that might be useful, thanks.

FP.

[Sunfish]

would the magnetos provide some signal? Also the crank on a radial is going to be wrather short compared to an inline engine.. Is the magnetometer signal a function of geometry as well as mass?

If 20m range on a wasp crankshaft could be reliably demonstrated would it be technically possible ( not necessarily financially) to grid the area into 20 x 20 squares and "dip' the magnetometer as in dipping sonar from a helo?

[MJA Chaser]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/sunday-night/video/watch/24192841/the-new-search-for-flight-vh-mdx-part-2/

This gives you an idea of what was tried by one search VH-MDX group who tried to use a magnetometer. Its a TV program so dramaticised etc. I'm sure that people will have their own views on the method etc.

[MJA Chaser]

would the magnetos provide some signal? Also the crank on a radial is going to be wrather short compared to an inline engine.. Is the magnetometer signal a function of geometry as well as mass?

If 20m range on a wasp crankshaft could be reliably demonstrated would it be technically possible ( not necessarily financially) to grid the area into 20 x 20 squares and "dip' the magnetometer as in dipping sonar from a helo?

Yes, the engine including magnetos is from my understanding the main source of the ferrous material that a magnotomter will react to in an aircraft wreck. Maybe geometry is a factor but its mass, the size of the magnetic body, that is the limiting factor with this method (so far) when looking for a small aricraft wreckage.

There are a number of aircraft wrecks in and around the Barringtons in various conditions that could be used as test sites. Feel free to go looking! The more the better and hopefully one day someone can identfy a technology that can be shown to work and be used to find these types of wrecks.

[David Billings]

Reference: First Principal #119 Post

LiDAR will detect a metallic object if it is above ground, it shows as a bright spot (a good reflection), easily picked out. I stress LiDAR because LiDAR would give me a picture of the ground. I would then be able to see where the bulldozer featured in 'my' quest had been working.... in order to assess what changes had been made to the uppermost 'crust' of the earth.

Surely if an idiot BD driver buried it, with LiDAR and the results of a large machine working in the area, I would be able to see changes to the surface of the hill, changes to the natural flow, if you like,

Obviously, if I had known about LiDAR and had it been available in 1994, I would have considered it. Hindsight is a good thing, when you can afford it,

[First_Principal]

@MJA Chaser: Thanks for the link, I've had a look at the video on the MDX search and from what I glean from that there's no indication that the equipment isn't working as they would hope. I have also located some useful data on the equipment shown, this may be the portable device they're using however.

You may have further inside detail though? Has the search been completed? Any idea on testing they carried out prior to the survey?

@Sunfish: There's a reasonable amount of material in a Wasp engine, as well as the ancillary mounts and other gear pertinent to the aircraft as a whole. There are possibly two engines in close proximity, although that may not be the case depending upon what aircraft it actually is, what happened at the time and any intervening 'works' that may have occurred. In any event I'd like to think there's sufficient to detect at the sort of distances we're thinking of. The magneto's would assist insofar as they add to the mass of material, but they're not likely to be instrumental in anything - particularly not at the range this is likely to be at.

@David Billings: As I write I'm looking at a LiDAR survey of one of my properties. It shows the ground contour as one would expect, but it does not show objects upon the ground. This is most likely a higher-level survey than you're considering but, particularly if the craft is buried, I think the best you could expect would be (as you say) to locate the 'dozer workings and hope that leads you to the area you'd like to inspect in detail. I'm doubtful you'd get much more?

I hope to have a little time today to further some research, if anything comes of that I'll post the detail.

FP.

[David Billings]

"What LiDAR does show"

FP says : "As I write I'm looking at a LiDAR survey ...... It shows the ground contour as one would expect, but it does not show objects upon the ground. This is most likely a higher-level survey than you're considering but, particularly if the craft is buried, I think the best you could expect would be (as you say) to locate the 'dozer workings and hope that leads you to the area you'd like to inspect in detail......."

I have some LiDAR pictures in greyscale of a mine site in the northern hemisphere and it shows the vehicle tracks, earthworks and minesite buildings and dams very clearly. We would be interested in the bulldozer tracks and as you say they hopefully would lead to an area or areas where intensive earth moving has occurred. That was all we could wish for.

We know that the BD driver made cuttings along the track where there were lumpy irregularities and we know he filled in some depressions all in order to smooth the way a little for the jinker when carrying logs, so the cuttings will show up as would piles of moved earth.

[First_Principal]

David; that's good, I was a little concerned someone may have led you to believe you'd get more than that from LiDAR.

Although you've not said exactly where this site is on the island I had a look via Google and one could see some tracks around the place. I assume these are not the tracks in question and that there's no historical aerial photography that could assist?

Yesterday was a washout (literally, bad wx) and although I had time on an airfield I wasn't able to run any magnetometer tests. Did find some Wasp bits in the garage though...

Next week perhaps.

FP.

[MJA Chaser]

@MJA Chaser: Thanks for the link, I've had a look at the video on the MDX search and from what I glean from that there's no indication that the equipment isn't working as they would hope. I have also located some useful data on the equipment shown, this may be the portable device they're using however.

You may have further inside detail though? Has the search been completed? Any idea on testing they carried out prior to the survey?

FP.
Hi FP. Thats correct the TV show didnt show everything. VH-MDX hasnt yet been found so the search continues. There are several groups undertaking various searches based on various information they have each come up with.

For further details on the magnetometer stuff try contacting that group directly. The information I have on this is limited and partly second hand.

MJA Chaser

[David Billings]

I’ve not said exactly where this site is...

First Principal in post # 206 says:

“Although you've not said exactly where this site is on the island I had a look via Google and one could see some tracks around the place. I assume these are not the tracks in question and that there's no historical aerial photography that could assist ?”

Well, I have not said exactly where we are looking on New Britain Island, in the province of East New Britain, nor will I...... but I have said enough clues in past posts for anyone to get a general idea of the problem we face with remoteness and the ever-loving Jungle....

For instance, in Post #97 on 20th April 2017 I said, in this thread, among a lot of other things:

"In the website I speak of a return path back to NUKUMANU Atoll and thence onward towards New Britain passing overhead Mortlock Island (T'au Group) and Carteret Reef and if that line is continued to the West, it does actually make landfall on New Britain at Wide Bay and pass over the area where we have been searching since 1994."

The only really historical aerial photo I have is the 1943 one and there are no tracks shown on that. I have an aerial I took myself in 1995 showing the development of the logging tracks in the area but I am not about to post that.

I have previously described the area as the 38 kilometre wide "neck" between the main part of New Britain Island and the Gazelle Peninsular. The website itself includes a WWII map which anybody interested enough can locate on New Britain.

Take it from me that the search area has encompassed quite a large area of the hinterland behind the coast of Wide Bay and my Team and I have been into areas in there where the local people have never been. We have seen things they have never seen. We have even taken a short cut through the innards of an extinct volcano in there where we followed a lava pipe out which had black marble walls and in there we saw a frog which has claws, something a "frogologist" at an Australian University told me was impossible, "Frogs do not have claws", he said....this one in there did have claws.

I think I have given enough clues for people to work out the general area where we go.

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[First_Principal]

Hello David, I must confess to being slightly bemused by your response - why wouldn't you say where the area is?

My comment re location was mostly in passing and by way of discussion and enquiry regarding what resource was, or might be, available for this area, I didn't realise it was a secret.

I can understand that you've spent a lot of your life researching this, that you're passionate about it, and that you would be devastated if someone else were to get there before you, so to speak. However I suspect it could make it much easier for people to assist if they did have a clear knowledge of the location, and any other relevant detail. Innuendo is all very well but it can be time consuming, off-putting, and the interpretation could be wrong. Could it also be why some people choose not to contribute, as I've seen you comment on?

Personally I've no particular desire to go there, I'm a lot further away than you are in any event and it would be unlikely to be helpful, but I am prepared to put up some professional time, expertise, and IP into the public domain where this might assist you or anyone else in searching for a downed 'plane. Whilst this is a individual philosophy I think it behooves us to consider that in the matter of another's life and property we should do the best we can to restore these things as much as is possible. If this means that a collegial or public effort could make a difference then why wouldn't one make all information available?

FP.

[Sunfish]

New species of frog. Billingsia perhaps?

[David Billings]

Slightly bemused...!

First Principal says:

"Hello David, I must confess to being slightly bemused by your response - why wouldn't you say where the area is?"

I have said where I think it is.... in the hinterland of Wide Bay

....and if you recall earlier posts that I have made I have said we are presently looking about one mile away from where the wreck of the B-17 41-2429 is located. It does not take an African Witch Doctor to find out where that wreck lies.... by the Powell River, locally called "Mumus".

That puts "our looking" within a circle of one mile radius.

I personally do not know where the crash site is which was seen by the Army Patrol, that's why I am still looking.

You say: "Could it also be why some people choose not to contribute, as I've seen you comment on?"

Yes, indeed, I have asked for monetary assistance but I am not expecting thousands of dollars from this thread, every little but of help does help.... as I have said, for we are always on a tight budget and a little extra gets us some extras to make life a bit more comfortable or to buy items of equipment.

That is up to them, to give or not give.... no-one has a gun to their pocket and it was some people on here who asked for the PayPal button in any case. Believe me, I do not like to be a beggar and that is what I have become by putting a PayPal button on my website. The actual results of the PayPal button tell another story....

The $125 (Australian Dollars) [less 3.9%] from two people as a direct result of this thread will translate into 4 Steel garden spades and maybe a fuel container for two stroke, and maybe a couple of thin foam pads for two tents, that will see that money gone.

So now in order for me not to be a beggar on this thread anymore, I withdraw my request for monetary assistance by readers of this thread... You don't have to even consider it anymore.

So I too am sort of bemused...

As regards "where it is"..... Why would anyone in their right mind tell anybody exactly where they were going to look when they have researched the subject matter for 24 years and made many visits to the area learning and learning and learning....at great expense.

Would you ?

[Sunfish]

Hello David, I must confess to being slightly bemused by your response - why wouldn't you say where the area is?

My comment re location was mostly in passing and by way of discussion and enquiry regarding what resource was, or might be, available for this area, I didn't realise it was a secret.

I can understand that you've spent a lot of your life researching this, that you're passionate about it, and that you would be devastated if someone else were to get there before you, so to speak. However I suspect it could make it much easier for people to assist if they did have a clear knowledge of the location, and any other relevant detail. Innuendo is all very well but it can be time consuming, off-putting, and the interpretation could be wrong. Could it also be why some people choose not to contribute, as I've seen you comment on?

Personally I've no particular desire to go there, I'm a lot further away than you are in any event and it would be unlikely to be helpful, but I am prepared to put up some professional time, expertise, and IP into the public domain where this might assist you or anyone else in searching for a downed 'plane. Whilst this is a individual philosophy I think it behooves us to consider that in the matter of another's life and property we should do the best we can to restore these things as much as is possible. If this means that a collegial or public effort could make a difference then why wouldn't one make all information available?

FP.

Based on the experiences of other explorers, D. B. is well within his rights to keep the search area secret. If he finds the wreck, the film, book and TV rights to the discovery are astronomically valuable. James Cameron parlayed Emory Christpohs filming of Titanic into a movie and the discovery of Earhart sets the stage for a sequel. I cant post now, but I'm aware of the shenanigans that went on when Ballard found Titanic. This could end up similarly.

[First_Principal]

@David Billings: Would I [tell anyone where to look]? Perhaps, for the greater good, I might. But then, I can be dispassionate about this whereas you've spent a good deal of your life on the project - which is why felt I could understand something of your feelings on the matter...

Anyway I rarely venture into philosophy on here (or at least I try not to!), it doesn't necessarily contribute as I'd wish, something I need reminding of from time to time, thanks. Apropos of this I will continue the mag work I'm able to do and if something useful comes of it I'll let you know. Otherwise thanks for the headsup on the location, I guess in some rather odd way that helps one to feel a little closer to what you're doing.

@Sunfish: I wouldn't presume to speak for David but I've never had the feeling he was in it for money - my questions and comments were genuinely about how best one might achieve the goal of locating whatever aircraft is out there?

[David Billings]

Missing Aircrew,...

FP says: "...I wouldn't presume to speak for David but I've never had the feeling he was in it for money..."

Well, you are right there, not that I'd turn down a few more sheckels at my time of life.

I was crew on a helicopter which went down into trees in Borneo in November 1967.... I wondered then who would have come looking for me ?

Since then I have had a soft spot for missing aircrew and working in Papua New Guinea, as I was then, from 1987 on, was the place to be if that is your interest. It still is....heaps of missing aircraft and crews in PNG.

I blame my wife for this particular one... it was she who saw a tiny news article at Christmas 1993, about the possibility of AE being on New Britain.....

[First_Principal]

David, I see several possibly interesting sources of data; Sam Lawson may have some useful knowledge of the logging operation you're interested in, could be worth a call:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/home/chatham/public_html/sites/default/files/20140400LoggingPapuaNewGuineaLawson.pdf

And the National Library, and ANU, appear to have a range of aerial photographs dating from 1941. Possibly they're the same original source, and may not be of use, but you never know what might turn up when old boxes of photographs are unearthed:

Papua New Guinea aerial photographs - Archives (http://archivescollection.anu.edu.au/index.php/papua-new-guinea-aerial-photographs)

[Papua New Guinea aerial photographs] (http://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-234713707/view)

Also I saw some reference to a pre-WWII aerial survey of some sort, it may not have covered the area in question but again you never know. Likewise there appears to be some WWII archived photography of New Britain, some of this may be available via:

Aerial photographs - Fact sheet 191 ? National Archives of Australia, Australian Government (http://www.naa.gov.au/collection/fact-sheets/fs191.aspx)

I expect you'll have been to all of these places long before, so apologies if I'm covering well-worn ground...

FP.

[StickWithTheTruth]

TIGHAR's latest findings in the news today...

https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/bones-discovered-on-a-pacific-island-belong-to-amelia-earhart-a-new-forensic-analysis-shows-20180308-p4z3hc.html

[First_Principal]

That report seems remarkably ambiguous; taking a DNA sample today is de rigueur for this sort of thing, I wonder why they've not done this?

Perhaps it's yet to come, certainly should be possible as Richard III's a little older and it worked for him!

FP.

[StickWithTheTruth]

You should be able to get DNA out of bone. I have heard though if there's a lack of marrow, it does become more difficult. If there's remaining family members (pretty sure there is), they could possibly match it.

https://askabiologist.asu.edu/hunt-dna

You'd think they would have done this already. I can't help but feel that they don't want to, as they may feel that their case isn't that strong...

[donotdespisethesnake]

The bones are no longer available for DNA analysis.

The bones, revisited in the study "Amelia Earhart and the Nikumaroro Bones" by University of Tennessee professor Richard Jantz, were discarded.

[David Billings]

I have already received mail on this , just as I did when the “original” Burns and Jantz report appeared some years ago. I didn’t really want to get into this “Bones” business brought on by TIGHAR again, because it really is like shining a torch into a curved railway tunnel, you can’t see round the bend and end up going round it yourself….

TIGHAR: The Gardner Island Bones

In 1940, the resident Colonial Officer on Gardner Island reported to his superiors, that he was in possession of some bones and he sent them to the British Colonial Office on Tarawa in The Gilbert Islands and from there they were sent to Fiji where a British Doctor named Hoodless became the only person to examine them in order to determine the possible origin and gender of the incomplete set of bones. The reason for the time and trouble of examining them was because it had been intimated that they may be “of Earhart”… no mention of the possibility of them being ”of Noonan” being made. This then was three years after the disappearance of the Electra. The British Colonial Office head in The Pacific wanted to keep the question of the source of the bones under wraps until more information was forthcoming from the examination by Dr. Hoodless.

Doctor David Hoodless was the head of the Central Medical School in Fiji.

Dr. Hoodless examined the bones and made a written report of the measurements of the long bones and drew sketches of the partial skull and pelvic arch remnant. His calculations are on the report together with a list of what he had received and the sketches. Doctor Hoodless pronounced the bones to be those of a "Stocky Male, possible mixed race or islander, approximately 5 feet 6 inches tall". After the examination of the bones by Dr. Hoodless, it is not known positively what happened to the bones but it is possible that they were incinerated together with other pieces of anatomy used at the Central Medical School.

Where then, could the bones have come from ?

Various flagged ships have been visiting Gardner Island for decades from the time of wooden sailing ships to the Bettchart Cruises organised by members of TIGHAR. There are records of whaling ships visits and of expired sailors being buried there in groups. Life at sea in those old days caused sailors to frequently expire.

In 1929, a steamer crossing the Pacific, the S.S. Norwich City, ran aground on the reef on Gardner Island (now called Nikumaroro) and broke its’ back and caught fire in the dead of night and during a storm, causing the crew to abandon ship and take to boats. This exodus was to cause eleven (11) souls in the crew to perish in the evacuation exercise in the stormy sea during the attempts to get off the ship and to reach land. This then was the largest expiry of lives on Gardner Island and some of the lost were Arab crewmen from the Middle East (Aden) and some are recorded as being 5 feet 6 inches tall or around that height. Some records of the Arab crewmen are in the Public Records office in the U.K..

That ship alone added to burials on the island when but four poor souls from the eleven lost were interred there, which must have increased the total to at least half a score or more interred on Gardner. Seven of those other poor souls from the S.S. Norwich City were not recovered and buried and it may be possible for one or two to have actually survived the rough seas and the sharks and made it to shore above the waterline in a debilitated state only to die from water ingestion, exertion and exhaustion.

The burials of the four that were interred, possibly took place on the sloping loose coral beach, due to the difficulty of digging graves into the hard coral of the island with whatever implements the survivors had. A later New Zealand Survey party in 1938, recorded bones on the beaches, so "those may be from they". In other words, what with the previous burials and now the four burials from the S.S. Norwich City, there were many sources of bones left on the island. Not to mention, that there are many stories of Pacific Islanders being adrift at sea for days or weeks on end before making a landfall and becoming castaways.

The 1940 bones were found up the top of the beach where the plants were growing and TIGHAR itself reports beach detritus being washed up on to the shore in storms. As said, some sailors from the ship were not found and who is to say that one of those did not struggle ashore at a distance away from the other survivors and expire on the spot in the shrubbery, alone.......

About ten years ago I spent many hours running though archived New Zealand newspapers trying to find reports of burials on the island and I did see accounts of mariners buried there in ones and twos and I did read about the later visit by a New Zealand survey party.

Where did it go from there ?

The report of the find of the “1940 Bones”, was picked up by TIGHAR as an exercise to see if they could be turned into "Earhart's bones". The TIGHAR sleuths unearthed the good Doctor's notes and sketches in the U.K.

Oh! My Goodness; the sketches showed the pelvic arch to be that of a Male....

Undeterred, TIGHAR enlisted the help of a TIGHAR member named Doctor Karen Burns who teamed with ‘the’ Doctor Jantz several years ago to produce a report. They did not have the bones, they had long since vanished. TIGHAR did try to find “the bones” by sending a team of Members to Fiji. After exhausting the Medical School and Hospital avenues, they requested permission to have a look around in other Fiji Government buildings but permission was refused.

Therefore, “bereft of bones”, Doctors Burns and Jantz used Dr. Hoodless’s notes and sketches. Their deductions made from the Dr. Hoodless notes were fed into a computer and out came the astounding change of gender… the bones were no longer Male, they were Female and they belonged to a woman of Nordic extraction whose height had been been five feet nine inches (5’ 9” tall). Now what was the identity of this woman of Nordic extraction ? Guess who ?

Therefore, TIGHAR using Scientific Methodology, teamed with two Doctors now and electronic help from a Computer declares "the Bones" to be of a Nordic female of 5 feet 9 inches tall based on a computer programme that did not include all races from this Earth. Not all races and ethnic groups were included and at the time it was not said if Arabian peoples were included at all......

Now, we have another report from Dr. Jantz, which has as the key words, “More similar”. The report does not say the bones are those of Amelia Earhart.

I have read reports that TIGHAR are basically saying that there was a bungled investigation by “The British” in the Colonial days but the natural reserve of the Colonial Administration would be to investigate further, before breaking “Fake News” and would be the policy of any Government where a person of notoriety is involved. When Dr. Hoodless determined Male gender it was “all over Red Rover” for the Colonial Government and they could relax and take ”Tea at 3”………

All persons now, who are interested in the fate of Earhart and Noonan can make up their own minds… as per normal.

[Sam Asama]

I've been following this thread since the beginning. I've also kept up with the information on both David's and TIGHAR's websites -- along with a lot of other sources of information.

In summary, I believe there is little reason to accept TIGHAR's recent bone information "analysis" as anything more than what is referred to as confirmation bias.

I'm certainly not saying this means Ms. Earhart definitively ended up on New Britain, but David's research has as much basis -- if not more -- for New Britain being taken as seriously as any conclusions TIGHAR suggrests.

Sam

[Petropavlovsk]

There is fairly good evidence that remains have been located...


Channel 9 provided this story on the early news 9th March.


https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/bones-discovered-on-a-pacific-island-belong-to-amelia-earhart-a-new-forensic-analysis-shows-1.515550 (https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/bones-discovered-on-a-pacific-island-belong-to-amelia-earhart-a-new-forensic-analysis-shows-1.515550)

[StickWithTheTruth]

It all seems a little too convenient to be honest.

Is that island the one where they found the aluminum panel that supposedly was affixed to her aircraft as part of a repair?

[David Billings]

The Bones - again....

Oh Dear.... now we have quotes from the Stars and Stripes....

There is fairly good evidence that remains have been located...
Channel 9 provided this story on the early news 9th March.
https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/bones-discovered-on-a-pacific-island-belong-to-amelia-earhart-a-new-forensic-analysis-shows-1.515550 (https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/bones-discovered-on-a-pacific-island-belong-to-amelia-earhart-a-new-forensic-analysis-shows-1.515550)

Yes, bones were located in 1940, were sent to Tarawa and then on to Fiji.

Let us have a look at what Stars and Stripes actually says:

"When the 13 bones were shipped to Fiji and studied by Dr. D. W. Hoodless of the Central Medical School the following year, Jantz argues that it is likely that forensic osteology - the study of bones - was still in its early stages, which therefore affected his assessment of which sex the remains belonged to. Jantz, in attempting to compare the lost bones with Earhart's bones, co-developed a computer program that estimated sex and ancestry using skeletal measurements. The program, Fordisc, is commonly used by forensic anthropologists across the globe."

Well, early stages or not, what Dr. Hoodless had to go on was a piece of Pelvis which he said was "Male" and his calculations were made on the current method for determining height. What cannot be excised is that the difference between a Male and Female Pelvic bone was known to DR. Hoodless and he stated the pelvic remnant was MALE…. Try as they might and post the 1941 investigation of “The Bones”, any investigation no matter how highly qualified cannot get around that obstacle.

"Jantz compared the lengths of the bones to Earhart's measurements, using her height, weight, body build, limb lengths and proportions, based on photographs and information found on her pilot's and driver's licenses. His findings revealed that Earhart's bones were "more similar to the Nikumaroro bones than 99 [percent] of individuals in a large reference sample.""

“More similar” in the English Language, in whatever context used, can never mean “the same”. Dr. Jantz, in my opinion, danced around the subject and did not deliver the conclusive judgment that the bones belonged to Earhart. He did not say that. Dr. Jantz clearly understood that a reputation was at stake here if a definitive line was crossed.

“In 2016, the group brought the measurements to Jeff Glickman, a forensic examiner, who located a photo of Earhart from Lockheed Aircraft Corp. that showed her with her arms exposed. It appeared, based on educated guesses, that Earhart's upper arm bone corresponded with one of the Nikumaroro bones.”

Indeed. Now an astute reader might very well ask, "From where did Dr. Jantz obtain Earhart's bone measurements, she is long gone ?" If that astute reader has read up on this whole saga he would read that the measurements used by Dr. Jantz in this new report were provided by TIGHAR and provided to TIGHAR by a person named Glickman. Glickman is a photogrammetry “expert” who measured the length of Earhart’s bones through her clothing and had a look at the seams of her trousers (obtained from a Museum). The photograph used for this experiment was of Earhart stood next to her Vega aircraft. Now, in this experiment we are talking of small numbers of millimetres, measured from slightly oblique angles in comparison to a Museum Vega which was mounted in the museum on stands and was not on its’ wheels as per the original posture and pose in the original photograph. It is important for readers to understand that the scientific base for some of Dr. Jantz’s “More similar” statement is based on the ratio of the lengths of the two long bones in the arm and that ratio can be manipulated if the actual real lengths of those two bones is out by a few millimetres. That must be understood.

Glickman has previously assisted TIGHAR with photogrammetry concerning "The Patch", a piece of aluminium aircraft skin which through lengthy analysis by outside interests (including me) has been discounted as belonging to Earhart’s aircraft. Chief among Glickman’s claims in that exercise is that “he” can see rivets on the exterior of the aluminium patch over a window aperture which was a shiny aluminium sheet shown in a distanced fuzzy photograph taken in Miami in the morning of the departure by Earhart and Noonan. I might add that no-one else can see these rivets and Glickman was supposed to provide evidence of how “he” could see rivets but has never done so.

“ In the case of the Nikumaroro bones, the only documented person to whom they may belong is Amelia Earhart," Jantz wrote in the study.”

So, it would appear that Dr. Jantz is totally unaware of the deaths of other individuals on Gardner Island, who then, could be a source of the bones found in 1940.

“In 1998, the group took Hoodless' measurements of the Nikumaroro bones and analyzed them through a robust anthropological database. They determined the bones belonged to a taller-than-average woman of European descent - perhaps Earhart, who at 5 feet 7 to 5 feet 8, was several inches taller than the average woman.”

From which it is my understanding that data on Arabian peoples and Pacific peoples was missing. I can stand to be corrected on that point.

“Glickman, who is now a member of TIGHAR, told The Washington Post at the time that he understands some might be skeptical about his findings, as they were based 76-year-old medical notes. But the research made clear, he said, that Earhart died on Nikumaroro.”

No, it does not.

[joe crazyhorse]

Apart from the absurdity of someone going from definitively being a short fat man to being a tall thin woman, it would seem that the elephant in the room is the fact that there is no Electra in the vicinity.

[MrPeabody]

The report below is an interesting read; it basically bags the original study by Dr Jantz in 1998.


https://bradscholars.brad.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/10454/7286/cross_nikumaroro_bones_journal_of_archaeological_sciences.pd f?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

[Global Aviator]

https://earhartsearchpng.com

Just donated a couple more shovels... Now if everyone would do the same maybe David could open a hardware store!

This really has me intrigued. Even if it’s not the AE aircraft there is something there....

[Xeptu]

this is very interesting, reading through what the patrol describe finding, the rough route they took, I see two sites along a ridge line of low hills that one is most likely to fly into coming from the east. It's a job for a drone with the right equipment to find the wreckage. I'll try and work out how to post a snap shot of google earth and mark the possible locations.

[MeLuvUlongtime]

w*w.msn.com/en-us/video/peopleandplaces/amelia-earhart-disappearance-99-percent-solved/vi-BBJYSty?ocid=spartandhp

[Weheka]

You are new here. Might I make a suggestion? read 'ALL' the posts before posting something that you may think is some kind of groundbreaking 'NEW' news. A video doesn't make it any different or factual.

[David Billings]

Amen to that - about reading previous posts

I am looking at the Jantz Report:

Amelia Earhart and the Nikumaroro Bones: A 1941 Analysis versus Modern Quantitative Techniques | Jantz | Forensic Anthropology (http://journals.upress.ufl.edu/fa/article/view/525/519)

It is a supposedly a scientific report but I am seeing some references to measurements taken and proffered to the good professor by Gillespie of TIGHAR and his photogrammetry 'expert', one Jeff Glickman, also said to be a member of TIGHAR.

The measurements in question are those taken from photographs of Earhart's arm length, supposedly through her flesh and through her clothing. There is also reference to measurements taken of her trousers (baggy or tight ?), seam lengths and waist measurements of same, which were also used on the production of the "More similar" end statement made by the good Professor.

Both Gillespie and Glickman have vested interests in the result they would wish for, particularly Gillespie who seemingly has those revolving eyes and the bell sound of a cash register wherever a report is made in favour of the TIGHAR Brand.

Monty Fowler, an ex-Member of TIGHAR and former large donor of sheckels into the TIGHAR till is now a vocal opponent of TIGHAR and he had this to say on the Key Forum:

"I have the utmost respect for Dr. Jantz - he is an internationally-recognized expert in his field. The key question for this "new" assessment of the Nikumaroro bones is where Jantz got the data that he re-analyzed to come to a new conclusion.

The data was provided by TIGHAR, which has an abiding interest in proving that the bones ARE from Amelia Earhart, and cannot by any stretch be considered a disinterested third party, seeing as how they considered it "an attack" on Jantz's original work, when another well-qualified professional questioned it."

The other well qualified professional that Monty mentions is Professor Richard Wright of Sydney, who combined with a Pamela Cross to write a 2015 paper in support of the original 1941 Dr. Hoodless assessment of the "actual, in-front-of-him, real bones", Cross and Wright's paper contradicted the 1998 paper by Dr's Burns and Jantz; the paper which produced the astounding change of gender and produced: "Female, Nordic extraction, 5 feet 9 inches tall" that we know so well.....and intimated "guess who ?"

Thus we have some Professional pride involved here where Jantz can hardly be expected to denigrate his (and Dr. Burns) own paper of 1998. Jantz as a well-respected anthropologist could very well be seen to be affronted by a Professor of equal status daring to disagree on some unseen bones, long lost but seemingly now appearing out of cyber space....

Somewhere in all this and the happenings of the last few days, I did read somewhere that involved in the measurements of the bones by Glickman and produced with typical flourish by Gillespie were the words "educated guess", but I can no longer find them.

Did this ring with anyone here and if so, where were those words "educated guess" ?

[Weheka]

The people reporting on this supposed 'new' news obviously do not do any research into the story before rushing to print or whatever media they happen to be in. To make it worse they subtlety imply that this 'new' report was done by reexamining the actual bones, which of coarse is total fabrication.:confused:

Washington post article By Marwa Eltagouri | The Washington Post

In 2016, the group brought the measurements to Jeff Glickman, a forensic examiner, who located a photo of Earhart from Lockheed Aircraft Corp. that showed her with her arms exposed. It appeared, based on educated guesses, that Earhart's upper arm bone corresponded with one of the Nikumaroro bones.

Actually that particular article came from a google search and is headed the 'Salt Lake Tribune'

And of coarse this is the headline, no argument, its all done and dusted, you may as well shut up shop David!

"BONES DISCOVERED ON A PACIFIC ISLAND BELONG TO AMELIA EARHART, A NEW FORENSIC ANALYSIS SHOWS"

[David Billings]

...May as well shut up shop....

Weheka:

"And of coarse this is the headline, no argument, its all done and dusted, you may as well shut up shop David !"

Aye, no kidding.... I've thought about that a few times and then say: "Nah...the evidence and the circumstance is too good.."

We've been though all the slimy frog spawn before... "the Aluminium Patch that wasn't".. "the freckle cream jar"..." the Navigator's bookcase"... the Bevingtion object"..."the Touch DNA"..."the DNA samples that were contaminated by the mastermind himself"... "the Bronze bushes that came from the Wasp engines ("What ! dismantled with coconut spanners !", my son said !) and of course the Size 10 shoe sole which when explained to him that it couldn't be Earhart's because it was too big to be a 6 1/2, he replied, using Scientific Methodology and said, "Must be Noonan's then...".

Nothing brought back from Nikumaroro can be traced to Earhart or Noonan or the Electra...

There is always a follow-on... When the Electra could not be seen by the flyover of the Naval Corsair biplanes, it was said it was hidden under a Ren tree after 'taxying-in' under the tree after landing on the reef...then later it was hidden under the 'scaveola' growth on the island, then it was pushed by AE & FN across the island to a makeshift runway, then it had sunk into the silt of the lagoon, until it was finally washed out of the lagoon and tippled over the edge of the reef.... The mind boggles....

As it was succinctly said in an earlier post...

"The Elephant in the room is that, there is no Electra at Nikumaroro..."

[Weheka]

Two people might push an Electra on solid smooth concrete, they would not push it 6 inches on any island terrain.

Good luck with your continued search David, sincerely hope you have a successful outcome in the not too distant future.

[aroa]

Weheka... Hear, hear.

With P 39 searches in sand up Cape York, we had a Deep Seeker metal detector...vintage techo nowadays. One found busted and inverted.
2 Lt. Robert R. Love USAAC/F 1st May 1942. Killed in the cartwheel Aged 22
RIP young Robert.
Never even made it to the War. P 39 F? Serial unknown as yet.

Second find by 'good luck' with very bad luck. Were to use a hands held magnetometer borrowed from an exploration co. walk a grid, plot the results and locate an anomaly ..or not. Wasnt buried where the pilot said it might be...be he wasn't far off.

Having bailed out after engine failure, he watched it glide on and crash land itself.
After a Cape adventure he went back to get 'his personal effects and tech orders' out of the cockpit, along with an Oz Army patrol. A/c little knocked about, but intact.
We were scrabbling in the turkey brush, and found what was left in a vale between scrubby dunes.
Our bad luck was in the early 70s it got blown up in a Army exercise. Bugger.!
There went 'my' P 39...finders keepers.!

So we never did get to use the magnetometer over the given plot zone..

Lt Richard J Shipway. USAAF P 39 Q6. #(4)219943. Engine failure 23. 12. 1943
Was a Reccon pilot on F5 Lightnings, survived the War OK. Now deceased at 93
RIP, old Richard.

Briefly re 2 methods that have been very well researched by David and his Team no doubt. May the Lidar do the final trick for The Spot.!!

[David Billings]

The Washington Post article...

Thanks Weheka for the info....

I have mailed Marwa Eltagouri of the Washington Post to ask where she got the information (my bolding):

"In 2016, the group brought the measurements to Jeff Glickman, a forensic examiner, who located a photo of Earhart from Lockheed Aircraft Corp. that showed her with her arms exposed. It appeared, based on educated guesses, that Earhart's upper arm bone corresponded with one of the Nikumaroro bones."

She may reply or she may not...

A basis for a Scientific Paper produced from "educated guesses" is no basis at all.

We do know that TIGHAR "Executive Director" Richard Gillespie did get Photogrammetry expert Jeff Glickman to carry out a photographic interpretation exercise to try and determine Earhart's Height because of the conflict between the earlier 1941 estimate from Dr. Hoodless and the 1998 interpretation from Dr's Burns and Jantz. This exercise developed into taking other measurements through flesh and fabric to determine the lengths of arm and leg bones which will produce estimates at best and "estimates" is mentioned in the Jantz paper, again no basis for a scientific report.

With due respect (if any) to the final result of that exercise by Glickman that was given to Gillespie to then give to Jantz, by any standard applicable is questionable for, and to use a simile, "you to do not get the Police to investigate the Police".

On past history of Gillespie's claims and backfires, it is impossible for readers of the Earhart Mystery and those ultimately interested in the Crew's fate and whereabouts, to accept any evidence presented by Gillespie for it will always be biased.

Dr. Jantz, in my opinion, has been played by a master manipulator.

[First_Principal]

to use a simile, "you to do not get the Police to investigate the Police".

Ah yes, quis custodiet ipsos custodes indeed?

It all seems a bit of a red herring to me. Whilst forensic investigation is an interesting field, and some new methodology could shed light on things, having been trained in 'proper' scientific investigative methods I find this rather wanting. So wanting that to my mind it doesn't warrant any weight even when considering any 'balance of probabilities'.

With regard to David's search in hand, aroa has some useful info "...magnetometer borrowed from an exploration co. walk a grid, plot the results and locate an anomaly.

As previously discussed this is, IMV, probably the best current method available for locating the sort of thing David is after - albeit at a somewhat larger distance than has been used previously. This latter makes it more experimental and uncertain than I'd like, but I am coming to the conclusion that technology has advanced enough to suggest it is reasonably possible at least.

FP.

[FAR CU]

Try approaching the coal mining companies in the Hunter Valley . Bengalla have just given $50,000 to the organisers of the Warbirds Airshow scheduled for Scone on 25th March. Write to Dick Smith . If you already have then put together a fresh appeal, explaining as evocatively as you can why you believe this exploration overwhelmingly warrants the backing and likely subsequent confirmation of the compelling evidence that the Lockheed ended up where your researches point to . (It goes without saying that to have that breakthrough - the confirmation - would be a Marie Celeste moment - especially in the USA. Surely there is a potential major sponsor just waiting to be convinced.)

[Rodney Rotorslap]

Surely there is a potential major sponsor just waiting to be convinced.

I would add; "who hasn't heard of RG or TIGHAR"


And don't call me Shirley.

[David Billings]

Updating

Not much has happened.

WASHPOST:

I have not received a response from the writer "Marwa Eltagouri" at the Washington Post so the "educated guesses" of 2016 in reference to estimation of bone lengths named by TIGHAR still stands as reported.

Magnetometer:

It would be impossible to grid and 'walk' a Magnetometer over the surface of the hill in ENB, secondary jungle would have to be completely cleared. I did receive interest from helicopter borne magnetometer people but the tree height seems to be the problem with current equipment being too high above the source to be able to sense the source.

Sponsorship from Australian Companies:

I have tried a few, no answer. It might have been read that Dick Smith was making Jam at the time I think he is now into sauces.

Rodney Rotorslap:

Well, everybody has heard of Richard Gillespie but he has no regard for this project and I say, "Apparently he has no regard." I'll tell you what happened there.

Every little piece of information that occurs in the news about Earhart appears on the TIGHAR Forum within five minutes ....

In 1997 in Singapore, I discussed the project with a P&W Field Rep. He contacted Gillespie and told him of the news that it was a possibility the Electra was on East New Britain. He told Gillespie all the details I had told him including that we had "600 H.P. S3H1 C/N1055 " on the map.

Back at Air Niugini, I received a FAX from Richard Gillespie and in it, he asked me if the engine I had referenced to the P&W Field Rep was the same engine that AIF Veteran Donald Angwin had told him about in 1990 ? At that time in 1990 he had replied to Don Angwin and told Don it was an impossibility that it, the engine, could be Earhart's... and he had been "rude" to Don (Don had said) in his response.

So, here he was asking about it now that I had spoken to a P&W Field Rep. I replied in a "Cannot confirm or deny mode" as I had read about Gillespie and wasn't keen on telling him anything. Don Angwin didn't want any more contact with him over his rudeness and so, neither did I.

In 1997 I did write to the CEO of Pratt & Whitney, the CEO then was Karl Krapek. My letter was headed "Confidential". I told him all about it and asked him for a small sum for sponsorship.

If you've guessed what happened next... Well done !

Krapek showed my Confidential letter to Richard Gillespie and you can guess what he told Krapek.

In 1997, Gillespie had already committed to Nikumaroro Island. Any interference from a project in Australia which had "REAL" evidence instead if "assumptions" would affect his requirement that people give him money.

Now, after all this, you would think that Gillespie would tell his followers that he had received "Two" reports of a WASP being found on ENB (just as he had reported everything he had heard about Spink recently). But "No", nothing appeared in the TIGHAR Forum until 2004 when our news of the ENB Project broke in the newspaper USA Today in 2004, after I had been interviewed by Gregg Zoroya.

It would have been a reversal as in his role of Prophet he was telling his followers that Nikumaroro was the answer and he already had some explaining to do over the US Today article, ie; "Why hadn't he told his members."

Go to Richard Gillespie... ?!?! You unintentionally "jest". Ahhhh...I get you... Someone who hasn't heard of him..Doh ! Der Pfennig ist verdroppen !

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

[geeup]

What about putting up a big reward for the people of New Britain PNG?

Say K10,000 (AUD$3600).

[FAR CU]

may I second guess what David's response might be?

we would if we could but we can't

the good indigenous people of
that island would need more than the promise of kina to form an
army of heavy duty machete wheeling chanters. I say chanters because
those big fellas from the Torres Strait Islands who worked on the railway from Mount Tom Price to Karratha in the mid '60s ; to hear them lift and lay in place, singing all the time, all along lugging that heavy iron down a track of about 168 miles (I think), was a memorable experience.

[David Billings]

Rewards and Help from the local people

The Pomio people all know about our endeavours in their territory and they are as keen as we are to locate the site where the BD Driver buried it but they don't know where it is either. The "Post-Courier" and "National" newspapers in PNG take time to filter down to the Wide Bay area but they know my name has been in the papers so they can read that is is a genuine search for "the American Lady".

They know that a find and proving it to be Earhart's aircraft will bring tourists to the area, impoverished as it is, but tourists, if looked after, bring in economic benefit.... They know that, so they are willing to help and have helped us enormously.

Money would help them but their really desperate need is for a Lucas Mill, a gasoline powered mobile sawmill that turns logs into usable lumber on site at the felled tree.

Our best bet at finding it would be the LiDAR survey which would show all the old tracks made by the Bulldozer and where it was working. Obviously we have walked the main track and the BD Driver bumped into it when he was making access tracks before the loggers arrived so it has to be near to one of the main tracks. He is said to have backed off and "gone around it" , ie; re-routed the track away from it and then come back and covered it over.

All the old tracks now have new growth on them but can be discerned at ground level but the secondary stuff gets in the way of a visual picture of the immediate local ground area. Lidar would show it without trees and secondary growth. The best example of what I am trying to describe as to what LiDAR can do is the LiDAR Picture of "The Marching Bears " Monument in the U.S. which is shown in Wikipedia.

The BD Driver did attend a "Kommuniti Meeting" in 1995 and he said that he knew where it was but would not say where. The Pomio's took that as being boastful.

He apparently also knew of the importance and intended go back and uncover it himself after we had stopped looking. We didn't stop looking but in any case he reportedly met his end in the year 2000.

We are working on an alternative to LiDAR at present to see if that alternative can help.

[FAR CU]

So David may I ask ? In percentage terms how do you you rate the probability that what you believe is there is in fact there? (Your credentials are beyond question. Mr Money-bags might take little convincing of that. But, needless to say, he will equally want to assess the probability of you being right in your assumptions as to the crash site.) It must be very tiring having to go over the theory time and time again. Apologies.

[David Billings]

What do I believe is there in percentage terms ?

1. The Army Sitrep tells us: "A/C plates will be available at 0900 (with the report)", so that tells us that the Patrol A1 definitely saw aircraft wreckage and handed in "plates", the Vets could only remember the one plate that being the metal tag removed from the engine mount. They were mystified why it said "plates" (Typo ?).

2. The W/O on the patrol saw the words "Pratt and Whitney" on the detached engine "somewhere". He could not remember exactly where. He removed a Metal Tag hanging by wire from the engine mount tubing. He said it had "A string of letters and numbers on it."

3. The Vets said the reply from "the Americans" said that from the information they had given, the Americans said (in their reply) that the engine was a WASP and "Not one of theirs". If it had been a TWIN WASP then they surely would have known it was one of theirs.

4. So, as it was twin engined aircraft, there are actually TWO Wasp engines there.

5. We have "600 H/P S3H1 C/N1055" together with details of patrol A1 on a TOPO Map used by the men of "D" Coy 11th Batallion AIF. The map had always been in the possession of men from that unit. Those identifiers say that with "S3H1" being a WASP engine same as used by Earhart and the rating in H.P is correct and so is the "1055" as the sequential build number of her aircraft, the writing references (Ref:) the L10E Model Electra aircraft used by Earhart.

6. 100% there is aircraft wreckage there.

7. On the evidence it is the Electra 10E aircraft which belonged to Earhart.

If anyone skilled in aircraft identification involving aircraft types from the era 1930 to 1945, can tell me of a different type of aircraft that this wreckage could be,... other than a Lockheed Model 10E Electra, I would be delighted to know what that aircraft could be.

The aircraft has to be an aircraft powered by P&W Wasp engines specifically with the designation "S3H1".

[FAR CU]

That's good to have concisely set out. I will run off a few copies so as to have them handy to pass to persons (with contacts) who may be enthused enough to be intermediaries in accessing higher up the gravy train.

[propertee64]

Well said Far Cu , and it would be useful to interested people to read David Billings website.

It has so much detail and information.

[FAR CU]

Noted, with thanks. It could be that there are still aspects to mounting
a renewed campaign to muster up concrete and substantial support that need to be explored.

[David Billings]

Another hole in TIGHAR's Nikumaroro Hypothesis

A few days ago I discovered something that I had missed probably because the fanfare from TIGHAR about the Aluminium Patch, "Artifact 2-2-V-1" went quiet.

In 1991 TIGHAR found a piece of aluminium aircraft skin on Nikumaroro with four rows of rivet holes and a ragged edge and pictures of it that I saw reminded me of the way South-west Pacific islanders remove aluminium sheeting off of aircraft wrecks and that is by using a bushknife to first chop through the skin and use the bushknife to lever it, pop the rivet heds off and then tear the piece off, by bending it backwards and forwards until it fails in fatigue.

TIGHAR touted the piece that they found as coming from the Electra but failed to find a match when they went over an Electra with the scrap of sheeting which measures roughly 2 x 1 feet (600 x 300mm). They couldn't prove it so it rested for bit but they still kept mentioning it as coming from the Electra. Then 20 years later they dragged it out and tried to convince everyone that the piece was from a "Patch" that had been riveted over the RH Rear Window frame, the glass having been removed at Miami, before the World Flight began.

I and a couple of other guys were instrumental in proving that it didn't come from that patch either. TIGHAR wrote thousands and thousands of words, reams and reams of pages, on this subject and it ran for ages on their Forum to their captive audience.

There were WWII wrecks (B-24's ) on Canton Island and a C-47 wreck on Sydney Island, both these islands being in the Phoenix Group as is Nikumaroro. It had been suggested many, many times that the piece of aircraft skin came from one of those.

People opposed to their insistence that the ragged piece of skin came from the Electra had good news some time back but it has been kept quiet by TIGHAR.

The New England Aircraft Museum in the U.S. found a Match, They have a template of the piece of skin with all the rows of rivets marked.

The match was discovered in 2017 while they were restoring a DC-3 in Eastern Airlines colours. The spare wing for this DC-3 came from a C-47B-10-DK, c/n 26458, msn 15013, built in 1944 and the template that they have fitted this wing. The artifact template did not fit their DC-3, c/n 6314, AAF number 43-1973, built in 1942.

So the template and the TIGHAR "Artifact 2-2-V-1" the piece of aircraft aluminium skin touted for 27 years as coming from the Electra C/N 1055 came from the C-47A that crashed on Sydney Island.

As many of us were saying for years, the piece was most probably hacked off the crashed wreckage of the C-47A and transported by canoe from Sydney Island to Gardner Island (now Nikumaroro) and as it appears to have been in a fire, it was most probably used to cook fish by islanders on Gardner.

An entertaining little story.

[greg47]

David in your opinion did Erhart reach the area of Howland island island and then return to ENB some must be 20 hrs plus away