North Korea kicking off

[Adam Nams]

Is the problem of North Korea becoming more than just a local issue?
The local news report that the UK have dispatched a VC10 to 'sniff the air' in Japan, along with a unit from the USAF.

What options are open should UN sanctions fail?

[Double Zero]

Learn the Korean for " I'll keep him distracted while you guys in white coats sneak up " ?

[GPMG]

He's so ronrey, so vewy vewy ronrey.......

Perhaps China can prove that it is one of the good guys and just snuff the little chap out.

[Sook]

North Korea kicking off

Ah the great British art of understatement. A country which is testing nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and has withdrawn a longterm truce with it's neighbour starts making threatening noises and we describe it as "kicking off". Makes you proud to be British!

[GPMG]

I think that the British state of readiness has been raised to 'mildly perturbed'.

[The Gorilla]

I think you will find that's "mildly disturbed"
:)

[Blacksheep]

the British state of readiness has been raised to 'mildly perturbed'. I say! Steady on old chap.


BUT,

What if, let's say, the Koreans weren't really dumb and the Great Leader wasn't so vewy, vewy ronery? What if they've studied the NATO plan for Europe up in the Great Leader Staff College. Remember? The one where the conflict would remain conventional until the Soviet advance into Germany reached a certain "trigger" point, at which theatre nuclear weapons would be brought into use? The one that has so far successfully discouraged them from trying to visit the south.

Now they have a nuclear response capability they may feel confident enough to try overwhelming the southern defences with their million plus army of fanantical high step dancers. You nuke us and we vapourise Tokyo and all that stuff. :uhoh:

We'd certainly need a couple of VC10 loads of Pongoes to beef up the conventional forces in S.Korea if that turned out to be the case. S.Korea and the USA simply don't have the conventional forces to spare for tackling a conventional ground war against the North Korean chorus line.

Don't mind me, I'm onry trying to think rike a vewy, vewy ronery Gwate Weader

[VinRouge]

Pre-emtive strike justified?

[Airborne Aircrew]

Pre-emtive strike justified?

It seems to becoming just that... Otherwise horses, stables and doors come to mind.

[TEEEJ]

There is a short video here of the last VC-10 sampling mission from Japan - 2006. One of the pods can be seen under the port wing.

Right click on the video to zoom in.

“úƒeƒŒNEWS24 (http://www.news24.jp/68823.html)

TJ

[Yeoman_dai]

People always forget just how capable and well armed the South Korean armed Forces are. Short of Nuclear war, they and their Northern Cousins would have a right old dust up but they certainly wouldn't be overwhelmed in double quick time. Plus, another thing that slips from peoples minds is the amount of US troops already in South Korea - 1 Brigade I think, at the moment, with plenty more in the US for deployment if it got really nasty - the extra Afghan 'surge' notwithstanding.

I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.

Long and the short, we aren't needed.

[aseanaero]

Maybe he's been watching too many re-runs of Team America in his home cinema ?

Now Kim Jong Il is getting on a bit he personally has a lot less to lose and is the sort of guy mad enough to follow through on his sabre rattling.

YouTube - Kim Jong Il Inevitable (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoF518hBFjU)

[brickhistory]

People always forget just how capable and well armed the South Korean armed Forces are. Short of Nuclear war, they and their Northern Cousins would have a right old dust up but they certainly wouldn't be overwhelmed in double quick time. Plus, another thing that slips from peoples minds is the amount of US troops already in South Korea - 1 Brigade I think, at the moment, with plenty more in the US for deployment if it got really nasty - the extra Afghan 'surge' notwithstanding.

I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.

Long and the short, we aren't needed.


Agree, in the main about the ROK forces.

Not so much on the Americans' numbers. They will be little more than a speed bump, but serve as a tripwire deterrent to the North and any plans to come south.

That said, if China doesn't pull some strings, then the US will most likely do zip as China will use this to its advantage - sends all those pesky, hungry refugees south and not across it's own border, also further ties up the US and, perhaps, enable the PRC's own little adventure across the Taiwan Strait.

So many handy US wars combined with the majority of US debt in Chinese hands would pretty much gaurentee the PRC asking, politely of course, for the US to not interfere.

Realistically, how soon could Australia, Japan, or Britain get to the fray?

Not soon enough to do any good or in the numbers required once they were there.

If this is more than nuclear sabre rattling to get attention/money/oil, then the South Koreans will stand or fall pretty much on their own.

[Load Toad]

China doesn't need to do anything across the Taiwan strait - the Taiwanese - now Chen Shui Bian is under trial and the DPP very much out of favour - are pretty much running towards the Chinese with open arms; and the Chinese are being very welcoming. The people in Taiwan that don't want to be Chinese albeit under a KMT type govt are the 'native' Taiwanese who wish to be totally independent.
Certainly the Chinese have no need to get involved with N.Korea as it poses little threat - other than any conflict would effect business - now that might make some difference.

[Herc-u-lease]

Kim Jong Il’s provocations to the West may hide a rational purpose - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6374870.ece)

See the link above for an alternative view on why Korea is behaving this way.

[Load Toad]

John Boltons take....

Nathan Gardels: Is John Bolton Right About North Korea? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/is-john-bolton-right-abou_b_208805.html)

What bothers me most is the suggestion of regime change - changed to what? We don't seem to do regime change very well and more instability and someone having to foot the bill - doesn't seem very appealing.

[Trojan1981]

Can the west do anything? I am lead to beleive that the N Korean military has conventional arms poised to strike S Korean population centres at any time, inflicting mass casualties.

This was a big issue in the build up to GW2 and it was argued that something should be done about the N Korean threat then, rather than going into Iraq.

I think the answer lies with Chinese diplomacy. China is, after all, virtually propping up KJI with food and energy aid.

[parabellum]

I would bet reasonable money that more than one satellite has been re-positioned lately, along with a few rather large submarines and possibly a carrier battle group or two? Just a personal view but I think if the North launched anything hostile towards the South or Japan they would only get one go at it. Possibly one or two anti missile missiles not very far away as well, it is not as though there hasn't been ample time for preparation for just this scenario.. China's economic situation and relationship with the rest of the world means that they probably don't want to get involved in anything too big either, bit of sabre rattling perhaps but nothing too aggressive. As previously said, just a personal view, North Korea could well be cranking up the blackmail handle again, but they are running out of options.

[Wiley]

I also would say Australia and Japan would have something to say about it.Agree 100%. Our Kev would make a stern, very vewy seriowus(sic) speech, (maybe even in Mandarin!), and ohhhh... I dunno, six months or so later, we might be able to spare a half platoon of steely-eyed accountants from the Pay Corps.

------

Attempting to be serious, I think any move to go eyeball to eyeball with Kim Jong Il and the DPRK has all the potential of a Cuban Missile Crisis Mark 2. History has shown us that that particular crisis went far, far closer than most appreciated at the time to M.A.D. failing to work, and that involved people who in normal times, might have been considered very rational. Some among the Cuban leadership of the time have now admitted that, even knowing it would have involved nuclear war and massive damage, even the total destruction of Cuba, emotions were running so high and events were moving so fast that they would have gone ahead to open, full-on conflict on a number of occasions if the Americans had acted in a way other than they did.

I fear that 'rational' isn't a description that can be honestly used to describe all the players in a DPRK/the rest of the world standoff if one were to occur today.

Some cynics say that the Americans and our own governments have a plan to keep us all in a constant state of fear. I have to admit that in this case, with me, they're succeeding admirably.

In my opinion, only the Chinese are in any real position to resolve this.

If they choose to.

[Double Zero]

The fact that the North presumably have a number of warheads already notwithstanding, I bet a lot of study has been / is going on again on how to take out that reactor; we could well do without the bastard making any more, hopefully the warheads could be dealt with later.

If not used because he's a bit miffed about his reactor accident - that of course is the difficult bit...

[Load Toad]

I'm usually dead against a first strike type action - but N.Korea acts like a spoiled child - which was OK when it was just conventional in threat - but with nuclear warheads and a delivery system - whatever Dear Great Grandma Leader is trying - how long before 'we' have to remove the threat - it seems impossible to predict what type of destructive nonsense they will try yet - they don't care about their own people - much less anyone elses.

[aseanaero]

Does anyone really think China will agree to a pre-emptive strike by any country against North Korea ?

'Crazy North Korea' can only be dismantled in the long term from the inside or with a change in attitude from China

[bizdev]

I seem to recall that someone 'took out' a suspected nuclear reactor somewhere in the middle east recently - was it in Syria? - with the likely suspects being Israel and/or the US who were (metaphorically) walking around looking skyward and whistling - someone got away with it (twice I believe).

[ProM]

The Chinese attitude is changing. They aren't stupid and recognise that having a lunatic armed with nukes on your doorstep is less than ideal.

As for NK troop numbers, you have to take these with a pinch of salt. They include for example the troops desribed here
http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2009/200905/news26/20090526-13ee.html

by the NK news agency as "soldier builders", currently building a holiday resort.
Against that the ROK forces are well disciplined and armed (at least from what i saw of them).

However, Seoul is within artillery range of NK, and so could be expected to be devasted even in a conventional conflict. Thus in my view any conflict would be short, but cause a large number of casualties very quickly. The west (and Aus, UK & Japan would not go without US) would have to use very large scale air raids, but would be unable to protect Seoul IMHO.

[OFBSLF]

I'm usually dead against a first strike type action - but N.Korea acts like a spoiled child - which was OK when it was just conventional in threat - but with nuclear warheads and a delivery system - whatever Dear Great Grandma Leader is trying - how long before 'we' have to remove the threat - it seems impossible to predict what type of destructive nonsense they will try yet - they don't care about their own people - much less anyone elses.
It won't happen.

NK has thousands of artillery pieces hidden in tunnels in the mountains, within range of Seoul. Any strike on NK would result in NK shelling Seoul, killing tens of thousands of civilians.

It would take thousands of air strikes and many, many days to put the artillery out of action. In the meantime, Seoul would be devastated.

[glad rag]

NK has thousands of artillery pieces hidden in tunnels in the mountains, within range of Seoul. Any strike on NK would result in NK shelling Seoul, killing tens of thousands of civilians.

And just how many thousands of tactical nuclear weapons do you have at your disposal?

Why bother turning them into ploughs, just use them and finish the problem once and for all.

Seriously.

[spheroid]

NK has thousands of artillery pieces hidden in tunnels in the mountains,

Sounds like Gib....is that where we keep our stockpile.?

[OFBSLF]

And just how many thousands of tactical nuclear weapons do you have at your disposal?

Why bother turning them into ploughs, just use them and finish the problem once and for all.

Seriously.
Are you seriously suggesting using large numbers of nuclear warheads within artillery range of the Seoul metro area, which has a population of ~25M?

We've tried the old "we had to destroy the village so we could save it" thing back in Vietnam. It didn't work out so well then. Irradiating the South Korean capital would likely not ingratiate us to the South Korean people.

[hunterboy]

I may be getting the wrong end of stick here, but are some people really advocating using nuclear weapons in a preemptive strike against NK?
Makes one wonder who the real warmongers are bearing in mind I don't see many Iraqi or Afghan soldiers in the Uk or the US .

[OFBSLF]

hunterboy: if you are suggesting that I am one of those advocating the use of nuclear weapons, you are seriously misreading what I wrote. Any first-strike attack on North Korea, whether conventional or nuclear would result in terrible civilian casualties and would be a huge mistake.

[taxydual]

Don't worry chaps. God's own acres are preparing for action.

BBC radio announces nuclear tests in North Yorkshire - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/5406829/BBC-radio-announces-nuclear-tests-in-North-Yorkshire.html)

[Adam Nams]

MOD says VC10 in Japan (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6394392.ece)

Initial tests inconclusive (http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKTRE54T0YM20090530)


On Friday, a U.S. official said initial tests to determine whether North Korea had fired a nuclear device were inconclusive.

The Vienna-based Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation said absolute proof awaited findings of radioactive particles and noble gases, expected next week at the earliest.


It seems that more proof is required than just the big bang registered around the world on the seismology equipment.

[Double Zero]

And the Mayor of wherever it was asking " What the **** was that ? " !

[Load Toad]

I'm certainly not suggesting a nuclear first strike.
What bothers me is that with the North being increasingly unstable and developing nuclear war heads and delivery systems it may become necessary to use military force to stop them developing such systems further.

[vernon99]

Is North Korea the problem? I doubt they want another war, and how well prepared to fight a modern war are they? They must have watched how quickly Iraq and it's modern air defences were defeated in GW1 & GW2. IMO the problem is that as they continue to develop and produce WMD they will give them to a terrorist organisation, get someone else to do the dirty work, this I think is the problem. For example the Olympics are a couple of years away at the moment, nothing to stop them smuggling a device in now, ahead of increased security. Now that would be a show stopper, but who do you blame? who do you retaliate against, N Korea would be stood saying it wasn't us, we have ballistic weapons, nothing to do with us?

[Double Zero]

There are systems in place to avoid that. As mentioned elsewhere, British forces keep things calm, but have a Plan B up their sleeve.

[BEagle]

If you have Google Earth, you can see some rather interesting shots of various sites the lunatic spaniel-scoffers would probably rather you didn't:

North Korean Economy Watch North Korea Uncovered - (Google Earth) (http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-uncovered-google-earth/)

[glad rag]

If you have Google Earth, you can see some rather interesting shots of various sites the lunatic spaniel-scoffers would probably rather you didn't:

39072725N, 125483333E ??

[TEEEJ]

NK is certainly an interesting place to visit on Google Earth. Much of their Air Force is certainly from a different generation!

I wonder if they hold photo shoots and open days?! How long would you last if you turned up outside the base for a bit of photography in the circuit?! :)

Koksan Airbase

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h261/TOMMYJO/KOKSANNK.jpg

Some of the NK pilot defections.

Farmer (MiG-19/J-6) from a 1983 defection - Captain Lee Ung-Pyong.

Photos: Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-19... Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/North-Korea--/Mikoyan-Gurevich-MiG-19.../1046855/L/)

Photos: Shenyang J-6 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/North-Korea--/Shenyang-J-6/1342249/L/)

Interesting story of Lt. No Kum-Sok. MiG-15 defection during 1953.

Operation Moolah - The Plot to Buy a MIG (http://www.psywarrior.com/Moolah.html)

The last defection was in 1996. Captain Lee Chul-Su flew his Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) to South Korea.

TJ

[0497]

I seem to recall that someone 'took out' a suspected nuclear reactor somewhere in the middle east recently - was it in Syria? - with the likely suspects being Israel and/or the US who were (metaphorically) walking around looking skyward and whistling - someone got away with it (twice I believe).

Israeli strike (they came in from the med) against Syria. Oddly, the North Koreans issued a protest.
Analysts: Israel Targeted Syrian Nuclear Reactor : NPR (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=15296896)

But Seoul is <50km from the DMZ.

[Double Zero]

If anyone asks me to back life insurance on a N.K. reactor technician, I think I'll pass...

[West Coast]

You boys talk all you want.

It's past the point of a pre-emptive strike. No military action is going to end the nuclear threat from NK.

[TEEEJ]

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TJ