Realistic EK upgrades delay ?

[Volverine]

What could we expect and why ?
Thanks for your inputs

[GoreTex]

I am here for over 10 years and EK was always taking DEC's, the last 5 years they hired lots of them and the entire world new about it, also the upgrade time can't always be 3 years, its just math.
if you joined less than 5 years ago, no reason to complain, there was enough material on this site.
sorry for not telling you what you want to hear.

[fatbus]

5+, 2300 pilots now, 100-150 new this year(apr10) and at most 400 / year , dont think its poss to train any more than that. Who really knows what and how the planes are coming beyond 2010. Also you will now see cadets coming up to command training on a small but steady pace , so even 5+ might be 6-7.
Not to mention the DEC thing.

[Ketek400]

When we started they told us it would be more likely to be moved from 3years to 4+. This is still quite fast compared to other airlines. I think most of us plan to stay 7 years anyway, so this should give you at least 2 years of command on widebody. Should be enough to find you another job anywhere you like!!! :)

[skyvan]

Predicting when commands will come through will be impossible at the moment.

Factors which will affect a new joiners time to command will include:-
Rate of new aircraft arrival (no delays for the next 2 years, but thereafter, who knows?)
Possible disposal of older aircraft?
Average productivity of existing pilots (the 92 hour targets will not help)
New routes and schedule changes (as in increasing utilisation of the planes, but that is already very high)
the recruitment of DECs and the correct implementation of the FOM regarding upgrading
Rate of prople leaving

All the above would be easy to quantify in an economically stable environment, but we are not in a stable environment.

I predict, with absolutely no logical thoughts in the process, that commands will be slow for the next 18-24 months. Thereafter, the world economy will be improving,so more jobs will be available in our home countries, and captains with good time will be likely to move on. Commands will then increase quite substantially, as EK becomes less attractive as an employer to DECs, and there is an excess of F/Os within the company who meet the minimum requirements for command.

I also expect within the next 3 years that the T and C, which are taking a serious knock right now as immature (as in inexperienced) management respond to the current downturn with ill-concieved and badly though out knee-jerk type changes in policy, will show a dramatic improvement as the company finds it difficult to recruit pilots who recall how little regard was given to employee "rights" during the downturn. At that time, expect a 25-40% pay increase, and a general decrease the level in the smelly bucket!

[Kennytheking]

I think 5 years plus is realistic.....however, this needs to be placed into context. We are currently in a climate where, I believe, many airlines are laying off pilots.....and downgrading captains to F/O. Given this, the fact that EK is still doing 50 - 100 upgrades a years is a positive thing.

Bottom line is that EK is still a good prospect for quicker upgrades than most other carriers....DEC or no DEC:rolleyes:

[ANFA]

Consider the following:

1. Cost of upgrading an in-house F/O (extra training event and hiring replacement F/O) versus cost of hiring a DEC;

2. Monthly salary of a year 4/5/6/7 F/O becoming CA at year 4/5/6/7 pay, versus DEC earning CA year 1;

3. Ready supply of FlyDubai CA's, already trained per EK standards and flying under EK Rules at our alter ego carrier, providing an abundant source of DEC's (already in-country) willing to be paid year 1 wages....

4. EK's accountants are no doubt well aware of all of the above....

Any estimates on upgrade time now?:rolleyes:

[White Knight]

And tell me just how many FlyDubai captains are waiting in the wings Anfa:ugh:

[Instant Hooligan]

Well ANFA,
If they weren't before they are now....!!! our own worst enemies...!

[spanishfly69]

Dear ANFA, I have to say that you have no idea what you are talking about. Flydubai pilots are not trained under EK sop's. we have our on standards, sop's and rules which are quite different from EK. NO need to worry about any Flydubai pilot jumping to EK.
Honestly, you should do a little of homework before you post anything.

Good luck to all,

[fatigueflyer]

For those of you thinking the capts will go back to their home countries when the economies pick up, you may be waiting a while as it does not get any better outside of the expat bubble we live in. Just talk to the many ex-EK drivers that have gone to Oz to fly the B777, A330 and A320. I have spoken to a few of them and their advice is STAY PUT!!! To go home and take a substantial pay cut (tax, mortgage, elec, water, schooling etc) might sound do-able but the reality is a stark contrast. EK working conditions might not be great (its the same at other expat airlines) but it is definitely better than heading home. At the end of the day, we are in DXB to get ahead financially, gain experience, hopefully have a reasonable lifestyle with our family and friends and set our sights towards retirement. Sorry if my opinion offends some but after 10 plus years here, the grass is not always greener. Good luck.

[whossorrynow]

Well these things are relative but consider this:

1/ One year ago when things were superficially good, Airbus F/Os were upgrading at about four and a half years.

2/ It's taken Emirates 22 years to get from zero to 120+ aircraft.

3/ If Emirates takes one new aircraft every month for the next 10 years someone joining now will upgrade in 10 years. Do the math(s).

4/ To spike item #3 there will be retirements and 'resignations' (in the true sense and in the new sense).

5/ But there will also be DECs. And there will be retirements of the older aircraft, many now hitting 10 and some 13 years old.

6/ How likely is it that EK will take one new aircraft every month for the next 10 years? Read item #3 again.

[ANFA]

As WK pointed correctly pointed out, there are no FD Captains currently at the ready, but in a couple of years, there will be a steady cue. This will dovetail nicely with the 6/7 year seniority EK FO's waiting patiently for command.

Spanishfly, go check your regs, we all fly per GCAA rules and you guys have been vetted and signed off by EK's HR department. IF there's a difference between our SOP's, it is without distinction, and no bar to coming across from a B738 to fly a B773. After all, they're both "heavy" jets, and the precedent for this type of DEC has already been set.

This also saves on the selection process because FD Captains have already jumped through all the HR hoops. You can just have them catch a taxi across town to come and sign their contract!

Sorry if this bothers folks, but really, it's all about the bottom line, and this will save EK loads of money.

Seniority in all its forms (Provident fund matching, retirement medical or travel) is costly for an airline, and the lower the bar can be set, the better the profit.

If a dummy pilot has thought of this, you can bet your bottom Dirham the company has.

This stuff needs airing on the Prune so prospective joiners can truly get a feel for what they have in store. When the supply of willing patsies dwindles, things will improve for all of us already here pulling this wagon.

ANFA, OUT!:E

[Volverine]

But some of us will be retired after 10 years...:}

[pool]

I don't think there will be a great hemorrage from FD to EK. As EK lets even 777 qualified pilots do a almost full course (because evidently only they know how to correctly operate), it does not save any cost, compared to a DEC. And the FD transition guy would need to be replaced, costing another course.
I believe that guys joining the lowfat-EK will be stuck there, as has been seen in other parts of the world with the junior/regional partners, much to the displeasure of their pilots.
For FOs within EK it is unfortunately some kind of gamble. If the business picks up in the not too distant future, it might be that the upgrade dawns at around 5 years. If however the upswing takes a little longer, it will be another story. Many cadets will by then have the hours, inclusive the new joiners, because emiratisation will not stop. These guys will be given a upgrade irrespective of hours, experience and operational success.Their departure will also need replacement on the FO side, and this can be achieved by leaving the expat FOs right where they are. For a eventual small time lag DECs will be cheap and available .....

Let's just hope EK does not defer the intake of heavy metal too much ....

[whossorrynow]

For fast growing airlines a simple formula applies. Time to upgrade for new joiners is approximately the same time duration that the airline takes to double in size.

Look at the seniority list for 2005. Joiners from that year are the most recent upgrades and they have seniority numbers of around 50% of the most recent joiners, confirming that Ek has close to doubled in size since 2005.

So for a future new joiner to upgrade to Captain, Emirates would need to double in size from the present 120+ aircraft to 240+ aircraft. To allow for an upgrade in five years Emirates would have to take delivery of two additional new aircraft each and every month for the next five years. (2x12x5=120). Is that likely to happen?

Realistic estimate? Try 12 or more years for new joiners.

Apply a sliding scale for those already in Emirates.

[Mister Warning]

The only other factor in the equation is retirement. EK have a relatively young pilot body and compulsory retirement age has been increased to 65.
On the other hand, the sh*t bucket generally fills up long before then...

[fliion]

The upgrade math is a little off.

Dont forget all the UAE cadets have a mandatory sentence in the right seat. Minimum eight years I believe (someone in the know please shed some light)

So technically you could work backwards through the list and come up with a reasonable guess for "Senior First Officer" upgrade time which would not exactly relate to numbers alone - The downside is (if you are of the frame of mind that in the worst case scenario there could be furloughs) - that the cadets have seniority numbers ahead of you eventhough they are not yet on line. Its a valid point as I spoke to a guy who siad he had 300 guys behind him on the pure list but when it came to the six digit empl# - not so

As a side note I believe the Emiratisation of the pilots ranks is the long term goal of senior mgt and the govt. It will take some time but eventually it is inevitable.

The DEC situation is unfortunate but many of us joined knowing this policy was in effect. the rub would be if the ratio of DEC to new-hires increased significantly compared to the past years. In light of the presumably slower upgrade time - if this was to happen I suspect the DEC to FO relationship (here-to-fore relatively healthy) would deteriorate,

I agree with previous poster - if things improve significantly down the rd - so will our T & C's...but it may be too late...a lot of damage done in the past four months.

f.

[EK Snorkel]

Will never happen. Wishful thinking of some FD prospects who dont understnad ME airlines...

Simply too expensive! Moreover FD pilots are not on EK seniority list as mentioned above.

Good luck anyway :cool:

[Flying Spag Monster]

ANFA what you say could have some credibility, but how about this scenario...

FD pick up all the crap night turns that EK does thus freeing up 330 and 772 crews/aircraft to do other things, including operating all the new 777s that you covert so much. No need to retrain to EK procedures or have the hassle of HR transfer, COS etc. Sounds more realistic to me.

Thanks for joining FD and making this all possible.

[long-gonner]

So, FD is now considered an alter ego? Give me a break.......Is Etihad an alter ego? How about Air Arabia? Is EK a unionized airline that competes on a level playing field with all the US and European Airlines? Oh that's right, EK is just another government owned and supported airline! I could understand using the term alter ego if flydubai was starting up with 777s or even A330s that were being transferred from EK, but its not. Its going to fly narrow body equipment.

[White Knight]

Long gonner - what are you waffling on about????

[halas]

It appears there will be little in the way of synergy's between EK and FD.
For starters, FD will use Terminal 2 on the other side of the airport. Home of the great-unwashed.

Also EK has/had anti-poaching agreements for flight-deck in place, in various guises, with other GCC airlines. What makes you think they would poach from themselves?

halas

[Visual Procedures]

3/ If Emirates takes one new aircraft every month for the next 10 years someone joining now will upgrade in 10 years. Do the math(s).

Exactly..

Only trouble with your theory whossorrynow, is that if Airbus had its sh!te together, EK would be receiving 2 a/c per month..

[sandfrog]

A big thank you to Airbus then!

[parabellum]

2. Monthly salary of a year 4/5/6/7 F/O becoming CA at year 4/5/6/7 pay, ......................


If that is what actually happens you really are doing well. When an FO gets his command it is quite normal for him to go to Captain Year 1 rates of pay in most other companies.



B738 to fly a B773. After all, they're both "heavy" jets


Does the B737-800 really qualify as a 'heavy'? The 757 didn't but the 767 just did. Medium would seem more appropriate.

[tornspar]

For info 757 is a heavy as well

[parabellum]

I agree that it is classified 'heavy' for wake turbulence but not as far as handling characteristics, pavement loading etc.

[White Knight]

Yes Tornspar - as far as wake turbulence separation goes due to the undesirable wake it leaves behind..

[checcker10]

Then you factor in a merger with Etihad in the next 10 yrs and it all becomes very interesting.....:bored:
Watch this space

[IXNAT]

Admittedly I have no idea what the 757 is classified in the rest of the world, but the FAA does NOT classify a 757-200 as a "heavy". It does classify the 757-300 as "heavy". One will not get a five mile separation from a -200, but will a -300. But any variation of a 737 a heavy; I don't think so. Again, I'm talking FAA standards not JAR ops.

[Payscale]

They flow of pilots could also go the other way

1. FO in FlyDubai, then
2. FO in EK, then
3. !st command in FlyDubai, then
4. 2nd command in EK

All cadets start in FD to get experience....

[EK Snorkel]

All cadets start in FD to get experience....


Brilliant idea :ok:

Unfortunately I don't think it is going to happen....they all want to fly "BIG aeroplane"....:bored:

[GBB]

Unfortunately I don't think it is going to happen....they all want to fly "BIG aeroplane"....http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/wbored.gif

There was one of them about to join EY local cadets, but when they told him he is going to start as FO on A320, he refused. :confused:
He said he is going to join cadets only if he get to start as a cpt. on B777... :ugh: haha

[Cessna1052]

If one will put up a business, the owner would want definitely an identity for its product or services. It is through this way, that competition starts.

If a businessman owns company A, and wanted to put up company B. He brings out the money, starts the recruitment and runs the business as he always wanted it to be. Not a competitor to Company A,but an extension.

If I am the businessman, and Company B is no good for me anymore. I will declare bankruptcy,shut it down, pay separation to my employees and send them home.
Why will I insert them to my company A, its a full house? I have no need for them. I will promise to keep their files, thats the best I can do. Send them home with the false hope that I will recall them the next day.

So, for the EK guys. Dont worry yourselves too much. Think like a businessman.

Tomorrow the Sun will shine again, I can bet my one month salary for that, and if ever I lose, Im sure we'll see each other somewhere.

[Saltaire]

I want the 30 seconds back for reading the last post. What the :sad: was that about?

FD is a separate airline. No cross over, no dove-tailing but I like Payscales idea, makes good sense - cadet pilot hiring to get experience.

I'm sure the 777 upgrades will slow but not as slow as the Airbus. I'd say currently 4-5 for the 777, which is still very good and 5-6 for the Airbus. Guys hired now and in the next year, it's just too hard to say...

[fatbus]

1 fact - this year 2009/10 32 upgrades on the Bus and 31 on the 777, I'm going to bet no DEC's so have a look at the list and see where that puts you. The AB list is on the protal without dates, alot more cadets are coming up for their upgrade (6000 hrs) which you can see on the bus list, not sure about the 777

Good luck

[Payscale]

Wonder if these 6000H cadets will be given commands on the A380 if thats the aircraft they are currently on...:bored:

[mensaboy]

If the original question was referring to a 'new-hire' upgrade timeframe, it is impossible to know for sure. I hate to burst any bubbles, but a MINIMUM 6 years would probably be a reasonable estimate.

1-growth has slowed and probably will remain slower than originally forcast
2-not as many pilots leaving due to worldwide events, but that will change
3-many, many cadets will achieve the required prerequisites for command before new-hires
4-DEC's will continue, there is no reason other than wishful thinking, to believe otherwise

[White Knight]

I've heard 1500 command hours at EK Payscale to get 380 command...

[atiuta]

I have seen a number of pilots express dissatisfaction that "their" command would not be when they were "told" it was going to happen.

Constant factors;

1) Usually held a command elsewhere and were eligible for accelerated criteria.
2) Complained about DEC's, yet were prepared to take a command before a more senior FO.
2) Performance was inversely proportional to their own self opinion.

DEC's, Accelerated, DEFO's are a known quantity, but there is an awful lot of talk, and not a lot of walk going on. The humblest individuals always perform better than the postulators simply because they have self belief, know humility, are confident but not cocky, and accept that command will come when Emirates decides it will and no amount of pot banging will make it any earlier. You will annoy your colleagues and make it that much harder for yourself if you do.

I have no idea how long command will be, but I doubt we will ever see 3 years again. 4-5 would be the best that current FO's could hope for. New joiners, make your decision very carefully.

[Fugazi]

Could not have put it better myself atiuta. :ok:

[fliion]

Atiuta - very well said

[Volverine]

5 years to wait for new joiners. That's a scoop ! :ok:
So better to stay away for a while get some "captain experience", come back and jump the queue.
If already in, "do not complain or it will be harder for you", nice and fair :D
All good advises from the left seat.:E I guess.
DEC's ?

[skyvan]

If you are in, then you are in. It will come when the time is right (for the company, not necessarily for you!). There is no reason to stress over it, as you cannot influence it. All you can do is prepare yourself as best you can, and make sure that you don't blot your copybook, especially as the FOs are now being more closely watched!!

If you are not in, and are thinking about coming here, the longer time to command merely makes the decision easier. This is no longer a quick jaunt out to the ME for a few years FO then a nice jet command rating. It is becoming a longer term commitment, so if you are trying to sell the Dubai Dream to you better half you will have to do some serious homework or the Dream could well end up as a nightmare.

Most partners are prepared to "give it a go" for a few years, but when the reality of living on a FO salary and not saving as much (or having as much fun) as you'd thought, then things (relationships) can come apart at the seams.

So, before you come, do your own due diligence, and decide if such a working envirnement (for you) and living environment (for you and your family) is surviveable in the medium to long term.

Pretty much as Atiuta says, best case now is 4-5 years for command, but the possibility exists for 6-7 years, particularly as EK starts to achieve market saturation on many of it's first choice routes, and is not too keen to take on the thinner destinations.

[atiuta]

Volverine

I detect a speculative slur beneath your post. Precisely the behaviour that provided the substantive evidence for my post.

Your advice re jumping the que is interesting. The inference is that given a similar opportunity for yourself, you wouldn't take the opportunity? Sure.

None of us need to test our memories that hard to identify tumultuous individuals that are incapable of producing the results. Do those same individuals receive assistance from their colleagues? Not a chance, therefore by their own actions they make it harder for themselves.

Five years to command for new joiners is your claim, not mine.

It is good ADVICE, doesn't matter which seat it's from.

I'm not a DEC, wouldn't matter if I was.

[Volverine]

Atiuta DEC
Tumultuous incapable individual yourself !
I have same right as you to do post here but you do not have the right to insult me.
Even if it's easy from your keyboard.

[nakbin330]

What insult?

[BDD]

Did they give you a time frame to upgrade, like 3-5 years? Even 5 or 6 years in today's pilot market to fly a 777, or 330 is not bad.